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Astra 1K Communications Satellite now Space Junk

bachelor#3 writes "Astra 1K, which was to replace 3 other satellites, didn't make it. Launch services were being provided by International Launch Services. Here's a timeline, from T-minus 30 minutes onwards."

95 of 235 comments (clear)

  1. Alcatel. by penguin_punk · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Seeing as it was made by Alcatel Space and Alcatel just axed another 10,000 jobs yesterday (or the day before?) Do you think it was a sign? I'm just a conspiracy nut.

    (ddaadaataaday! wee! look at me, I'm waiting for my 2-minute-filter to wear! ladeedaa)

    --
    HURD - Hurd's Under Research & Development
    1. Re:Alcatel. by patiwat · · Score: 3, Informative

      > Seeing as it was made by Alcatel Space and Alcatel just axed another 10,000 jobs yesterday (or the day before?) Do you think it was a sign?

      Absolutely not. The failure was due to an anomaly in the 2nd firing of the upper stage engine. The satellite had nothing to do with it.

  2. "No Danger" by redfiche · · Score: 3, Funny
    Quoting from the article:

    "Both the satellite and the booster will after a while fall back to Earth. Both will burn with maybe small bits reaching the Earth's surface, depending on what materials the satellite was made of," Kreidenko said. "But there is no danger."

    Just how sure are they that there is no danger? I'd rather not be hit by a 200mph pebble of debris...

    --

    Brevity is the soul of wit

    -- Polonius

    1. Re:"No Danger" by MacAndrew · · Score: 4, Informative

      I think the "pebbles" terminal velocity would be a lot less than 200 mph. Indeed, the old story about pennies cracking the sidewalk around the Empire State Building turns out to be UL. Here is an account of objects falling with and without air.

      But a perversely arrow-shaped piece of debris that did not tumble, that could be bad news. Then you just have to rely on statistics.

      Trivia: the Shuttle SRB casing fall at about 350 MPH without parachutes, and 50 MPH with. Hey, I was curious....

    2. Re:"No Danger" by geekoid · · Score: 2

      I find the concept of URbanlegends.com pretty amusing.

      Think about it:
      "I'm not going to believe that information thats floating around on the internet because this other place on the internet says it's not true." heh.

      If you but a spin along the edge of a pennt and drop it edge wise, it won't tumble. in the circumstance, it will put a serious hurt on someone.
      How much spin? a lot, but I don't feel like doing the math.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  3. Iridium by Gary+Franczyk · · Score: 5, Funny

    Thats nothing! Compare that to Iridium, which had 66 satellites that became space junk shortly after being launched. :-)

    1. Re:Iridium by jfroot · · Score: 5, Informative

      Iridium is alive.. in fact I have an Iridium sat phone (Motorola 9505) sitting on my desk right now that I use to call our people who are away on ops. With Iridium it is much cheaper to call phone-phone. Landline LD to an Iridium phone is abour $10/min. whereas Iridium to Iridium is about $1/min.

  4. Space Junk is like Earth Junk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Every time we stick something up there in space (yes, this one didn't even make it that far), we put another obstacle in orbit for future generations to evade in their spaceshots. Likewise, we are detracting from the natural beauty of the skies by putting reflective crap like this up there.

    When future generations look at the stars, do we want them to dream about soaring like gods to other planets, or do we want them to think that space is just a place we put all of our shit?

    1. Re:Space Junk is like Earth Junk by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

      Dude you are a freakin dumbass.

      Space is a LOT bigger than earth. Like 10 times bigger or something... at LEAST!

    2. Re:Space Junk is like Earth Junk by Guspaz · · Score: 2

      He's talking about the very real problem of too much junk in orbit. It's already a very real problem, with several collisions having already occured, and the more crap we shove into orbit, the sooner the next collosion will occur.

      Haven't you heard the famous "A fleck of paint can cause serious damage when it's moving fast enough" bit before?

    3. Re:Space Junk is like Earth Junk by pVoid · · Score: 2
      A fleck of paint can cause serious damage when it's moving fast enough

      Have you heard of this thing called the asteroid belt? It's full of 'paint flecks'.

      I'm not advocating people leaving nuclear powered satelites to crash over on populated areas, but the parents post about not seeing stars is just ludicrous. A satelite at most shines like a small star. We need to put up WAAAAY more satelites before we're not able to see the real stars anymore. Like billions of satelites.

    4. Re:Space Junk is like Earth Junk by fferreres · · Score: 2

      They'll bring them down with lasers easily, or something better. The problem is the killing of species on earth and the pollution that's getting everywhere (pollution in every sense of the world not just smog, let vegetation, contaminated water, soil without nutrients or plainly poisoned, deserts).

      --
      unfinished: (adj.)
  5. WooHOo by esac17 · · Score: 5, Funny

    MOSCOW, Russia (Reuters) -- Russia has failed to put a five-tonne European communications satellite properly into orbit and it will now circle uselessly until it eventually falls back to Earth, space officials said.

    Nice, does that mean we will have another chance at free tacos from taco bell! ??

    1. Re:WooHOo by Mister_Personality · · Score: 2, Funny

      *runs outside and mounts a bulls-eye on the roof* Whew... Disaster averted.

      --
      Karma: Anything remotely associated with Boy George I have no interest in.
  6. Perhaps adding this ... by Snoopy77 · · Score: 4, Informative

    would help us all know why this is so important to the /. community

    The French-made Astra satellite is the world's biggest communications satellite, with antennae spanning 37 metres. It was due to be used for radio and television broadcasts as well as for mobile telephone and Internet services in western Europe.

    --
    "She's a West Texas girl, just like me" - G.W Bush Iraqis
    1. Re:Perhaps adding this ... by Skater · · Score: 2, Interesting

      And yet so many people complain that /. is US-centric! :)

  7. Contributions Anyone? by Mister_Personality · · Score: 4, Funny

    If this was done by the same folks who handle the "Rich Bastards Go To Space" missions I am more then willing to contribute to Lance Bass ticket. Either that or my tasteless, N'Synch loving kid. Makes no difference which of them ends up stranded in orbit awaiting a painful reentry just so long as SOMEONE MAKES IT STOP! Anyone else have a buck to spare to ease my plight?

    --
    Karma: Anything remotely associated with Boy George I have no interest in.
    1. Re:Contributions Anyone? by drunkmonk · · Score: 2

      But, so to save the lives of otherwise innocent cosmonauts, let's just shove all of them in the capsule by themselves... AFAIK the Soyuz are rather automated, and it's not like they'd be going anywhere but back down!

  8. Not good. by carlmenezes · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The second failure in 25 launches. That's a success rate of 92%? That's also a 1 in 13 chance of failure with multi-million dollar equipment.

    T+plus 6 minutes. Second stage separation should have occurred, followed by third stage ignition. However, ILS has stopped its live commentary to show a video. We'll provide any additional information on the actual flight performance as it becomes available.

    Problems started here maybe?

    T+plus 8 minutes. Confirmation has now been received that the second stage engines shut down, the spent stage was jettisoned and the third stage has ignited. Also, the payload fairing enclosing the Astra 1K spacecraft atop the rocket has separated.

    seems ok...

    T+plus 10 minutes. The third stage burn should have been completed by now, followed by separation from the Block DM upper stage. However, no word has been received from ILS.

    Looks like ILS noticed trouble brewing here and were trying to redeem the situation... .. ...

    FAILURE. International Launch Services has announced that the second burn of the Block DM upper stage suffered an anomaly, failing to deliver the Astra 1K spacecraft into the proper orbit tonight.

    --
    Find a job you like and you will never work a day in your life.
    1. Re:Not good. by stu72 · · Score: 3, Informative
      The second failure in 25 launches. That's a success rate of 92%? That's also a 1 in 13 chance of failure with multi-million dollar equipment.

      1. Yes, 23 out 25 is 92%.
      2. No, it's 1 in 12.5 chance of failure.
      3. No, the cost of the equipment has no bearing whatsoever on how you calculate the chance of success or failure. It's the same whether the equipment costs $0.25 or $25e9
    2. Re:Not good. by whereiswaldo · · Score: 2

      Insurance. Duh.

      Do insurance companies really cover stuff like this?

      I'd think it would be cheaper to take your chances without insurance with a 92% success rate. Just imagine what the premiums would be!

    3. Re:Not good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Informative
    4. Re:Not good. by whereiswaldo · · Score: 2

      Thanks! I'm a little amazed just because of the big dollars involved, but it makes sense. I wonder if Mars Pathfinder was covered? (the one with the metric<->imperial mixup)

      An interesting quote from the article you cited (page 5):

      "In the last five years, the rate for launch plus 12 months of on-orbit coverage has gone from a low of 7% of satellite and launch vehicle value in 1998 to around 16% today. This represents a 129% premium increase in the last four years. In addition, the terms of the insurance coverage are changing to include more exclusions, new and increased deductibles, and reduced coverage time. These changes were in direct response to the increase in anomalies shown in Figure 1."

    5. Re:Not good. by Bitsy+Boffin · · Score: 2

      I don't see why not, insurance is just a matter of statistics.

      Let's say your average satellite costs, I dunno, 10 million dollars, and we take your 92% success rate.

      For an insurance company to cover the payouts for that 8% of satellites that fail, it's gonna have to charge you (10000000/92) around $109000 (one hundred and nine thousand), even if we multipled that by 10 because insurance companies want lots of money that's only just over a million bucks.

      So you can see that a small percentage of the total cost can cover you in the case of a problem, and the insurance companies can make a mint :-)

      Of course, it all depends on the insurance company insuring enough satellite launches to make it viable for them, the more launches they insue, the closer the premium can come to the 10000000/92 mark.

      --
      NZ Electronics Enthusiasts: Check out my Trade Me Listings
    6. Re:Not good. by patiwat · · Score: 2

      > Do insurance companies really cover stuff like this?

      SES Global an insurance policy covering the launch and early-orbit operations just days before liftoff. The company paid about $46.75 million for an nsurance policy valued at $275 million.

    7. Re:Not good. by gorilla · · Score: 2
      The amount of dollars involved doesn't really make a difference.

      If an insurance company takes a policy where they might have to pay out a billion dollars, then the first thing they'll do is to go to other insurance companies and take out policies of their own, up to say $900 million. At the same time, the other insurance companies are taking out policies with them for their big ticket items. This way, if the policy has to be paid out, no one company has to suffer a huge loss.

  9. It's a conspiracy! by bcwalrus · · Score: 5, Funny

    You can't even send a satelite to its orbit, and you're telling me that we landed on the thing called "moon"?!

    1. Re:It's a conspiracy! by Natchswing · · Score: 2, Funny
      > You can't even send a satelite to its orbit, and you're telling me that we landed on the thing called "moon"?!

      "... but that would belittle the name of our moon, which is 'The Moon' "

      "Point is, we're at the center, not you."

    2. Re:It's a conspiracy! by uncoveror · · Score: 2

      We can send satellites into orbit only when the aliens allow us to. The Astra 1K suffered the same fate as Contour.

      As for the moon, not only does it exist, but the Zhti Ti Kofft have a Death Ray on its dark side.

      --
      The Uncoveror: It's the real news.
  10. A job for Salvage 1 by xsfo · · Score: 2, Funny


    This really is a job for Salvage 1 !

  11. Re:Secretivity... by Skater · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Hubble was at least fixable. What about Challenger and the whole unit conversion fiasco? Those were much worse problems--at least we could do something about Hubble and not waste the money getting it up there.

    It's sad to see so much money and effort put into these satellites, only to have something go wrong and have it all for naught. It's too bad there isn't some way to recover the satellite or push it into its intended orbit. (I wonder what insurance policies are like on satellites, if they're even available.)

    On the other hand, we have to remember that nothing is perfect in human endeavors. When this happens, the best we can do is learn from our mistakes and then move on. Certainly NASA is more careful about O-rings than they used to be.

    --RJ

  12. Re:An "anomaly", huh by Archfeld · · Score: 3, Funny

    LOL

    We should just take all the nay-sayers and throw them off the edge of the earth.
    The Flat Earth Society would gladly provide help. They are as anxious as we are to get rid of the crackpots :)

    --
    errr....umm...*whooosh* *whoosh* Is this thing on ?
  13. A little perspective, please by Siriaan · · Score: 5, Funny

    You see, it goes like this: Space is big. Really big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely mind-bogglingly big it is. You may think it's a long way down the road to the chemist, but that's just peanuts to space.

  14. Re:Cheaper? by Mister_Personality · · Score: 2, Funny

    Oh sure... Nothing a couple hundred feet of rope and a "Satellite In Tow" sign won't fix.

    --
    Karma: Anything remotely associated with Boy George I have no interest in.
  15. Lifetime Launch Vehicle Reliability by Rareul · · Score: 5, Informative

    These are applicable statistics taken from: faa.gov

    Table 5. Lifetime Vehicle Reliability Rates

    Vehicle-----Launch Attempts----Reliability
    Atlas 1 & 2------49---------------95.9%
    Delta 2----------73---------------98.6%
    Delta 3-----------1----------------0.0%
    Ariane 4---------81---------------96.3%
    Ariane 5----------2---------------50.0%
    Proton----------254---------------89.4%
    Soyuz-----------958---------------99.3%
    Long March-------54---------------90.7%

    (Source: STAR Database, October 14, 1998)

    ?sp

    1. Re:Lifetime Launch Vehicle Reliability by MavEtJu · · Score: 2

      1998.... isn't there a newer one?
      (note, this is not a flame, just a question)

      --
      bash$ :(){ :|:&};:
    2. Re:Lifetime Launch Vehicle Reliability by Caid+Raspa · · Score: 3, Informative
      The space agencies are quite reluctant to talk about failures and statistics, unless it looks very good. There is a good reason for that.

      Launchers come in versions. After any failure, things are studied and problems corrected. 'Ariane 4.0beta' is much more likely to fail than 'Ariane 4.6.22' The newest lauchers (like 'Ariane 5.0beta' in that table) have much more undiscovered problems. After these are weeded out, the new ones are much better.

      Looking at the failure rates of last 100 launches would make Proton look much better. Looking at the newer half of launches would make Ariane 5 look much better. Today, Ariane 4 has something like 60 subsequent succesful launches, but Ariane 5 is considered so much better that Ariane 4 will soon be phased out. (Or is it already?)

      The well-understood 'workhorse' launchers with dozens of lauches, like Soyuz, Proton or Ariane 4 will probably have similar figures in newer reports. ESA Annual report for 2000 is the latest I've seen, and it gives a success rate of 97.3% for Ariane 4.

  16. I believe you have my stappler. by SHEENmaster · · Score: 2, Funny

    And if you don't return it I'll blow up the satelite; I swear!

    --
    You can't judge a book by the way it wears its hair.
  17. Astra 1k (I'm trashed and just dreaming...) by inode_buddha · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Does anyone think there's a chance to recue this mission with the next several US shuttle launches in exchange for a mostly ready-made comms platform aboard the International Space Station? If yes, why? If no, why not? This could be a very valuable contribution to the ISS from the USSR, given their current difficulties otherwise, IMHO.

    --
    C|N>K
    1. Re:Astra 1k (I'm trashed and just dreaming...) by gorilla · · Score: 3, Informative
      No there is no chance.

      Firstly the shuttle has trouble getting into any useful orbit. As a later comment mentions, Columbia is going to be scrapped because it can't even get into the oribit of the ISS. Unless your sick satellite happens to have gone into a reasonably stable LEO, then the shuttle has no chance of getting to it.

      Secondly, even once they got to the satellite, there would be no way for the astronauts to work with the satellite. The Hubble was specially designed to be openable by astronauts as the regular service missions were planned before it was designed. This means that they can't access the satellite to to the major modifications which would be needed to either launch it into it's original orbit, or modifify to to be a comms platform. That means that any modifications would have to be done on earth which brings me to

      Thirdly, under the modern safety rules, a satellite fully fueled with propellant isn't allowed to be in the shuttle for landing. And as they can't access the satellite to safely jetison the fuel, that means that it can't be brought back to earth either.

      Even if that wasn't true, what do you think that a TV broadcast satellite would do at the ISS? It's designed to take a signal broadcast from the ground, and rebroadcast it over it's target area. It's basically a solar panel hooked upto a amplifer joining the transmitter to the receiver. Nothing which isn't already on the ISS.

    2. Re:Astra 1k (I'm trashed and just dreaming...) by GMontag · · Score: 2

      Ahem... I saw a documentry about the super-secret sooped-up Space Shuttles with some famous actors supporting it, like Bruce Willis.

      These things can take off right next to each other and have super hard skin, so the boosters flying off and the little pieces bouncing everyplace does not damage them. These things would be perfect for this mission, since the third stage is up there waiting to explode (another poster noted this), so these Shuttles would be better than regular ones.

      I am not sure how many of these Shuttles are left, because the documentry showed one that crashed on a comet. They have great range, since they flew around the Moon, blew up a comet and one came back. Some people think it was a regular movie, but if it was they would have used something fake, like a big giant bunch of lasers that make lots of noise in space and when you cross them they bounce off each other. They used an atomic bomb, so it wasn't made up or nothing.

      If anybody remembers the name of this show can you post it? Thanks in advance!

    3. Re:Astra 1k (I'm trashed and just dreaming...) by gorilla · · Score: 2

      It doesn't have to be explosive to be dangerous. A pressurized container of any sort can vent unexpectantly in the cargo bay, causing potential damage.

    4. Re:Astra 1k (I'm trashed and just dreaming...) by inode_buddha · · Score: 2

      Well, whatever it's called nowdays...

      --
      C|N>K
  18. Re:Secretivity... by Archfeld · · Score: 2

    anyone find a cost on the 1k sat ? Surely it was ensured, but by whom and for how much.

    --
    errr....umm...*whooosh* *whoosh* Is this thing on ?
  19. To Russia With Love by Orne · · Score: 4, Funny

    A Russian State Commission is being formed to determine the reasons for the anomaly.

    If there's one thing the United States taught Russia right about our form of democracy, it's bureaucracy...

    1. Re:To Russia With Love by FatRatBastard · · Score: 2, Informative

      Please. We sure do have a mountain of red tape here in the states, but NOTHING compares to the bureaucracy that the old Soviet Union created. Remember, the entire country was technically one huge bureaucracy. That and corruption will be the old soviet state's longest surviving legacies.

    2. Re:To Russia With Love by Khalid · · Score: 2

      A Russian State Commission is being formed to determine the reasons for the anomaly. If there's one thing the United States taught Russia right about our form of democracy, it's bureaucracy... Don't worry this is not specific to US or Russia, nearly everywhere in the world, this is the standard way to say that the problm will be quitly burried !

    3. Re:To Russia With Love by nurightshu · · Score: 3, Funny

      And brutal suppression of dissent.

      Our three surviving legacies will be bureaucracy, corruption, and brutal suppression of dissent!

      Let me start again...No one expects the Soviet Revolution!

      --
      They that would sacrifice their .sig space for that cliched Franklin quote deserve neither.
  20. Re:Secretivity... by inode_buddha · · Score: 2

    Why does this remind me of fsck?

    --
    C|N>K
  21. Not likely. by mindstrm · · Score: 2

    Terminal velocity for whatever debris is leftover will not be that fast.. the odds of you being hit by it are extremely low.. the odds of you being seriously hurt if you were are even lower.

  22. Yeah? by MacAndrew · · Score: 2

    I'd like to see you do any better!

    (old schoolyard retort that still makes no sense to me)

    I keep reading that the projected failure rate, where failure==boom, for the space shuttle is one in 300. It some ways that's a low failure rate, in others a disturbing one. I don't have the math here, but what are the odds of going ten years without an accident?

    The fairly successful but brief Apollo program had one lethal ground accident (#1) and one near inflight catastrophe (#13). That's still fewer than the half the deaths of Challenger.

    Now, I know some smartass is going to tell me how much safer it is per mile to take a rocket to the Moon than to drive your car there. ;-)

    1. Re:Yeah? by G-funk · · Score: 2

      Well if 1/300 go boom, then in 10 years, the probability would be 1-(launchesPerYear*10)/300 of going 10 years without incident.

      Unless my math is way off, in which case don't listen to me at all :)

      --
      Send lawyers, guns, and money!
    2. Re:Yeah? by MacAndrew · · Score: 2

      Not exactly. :)

      I'm a flight instructor, with a preference for single-engine. Twin pilots like to say how much safer they are with an "extra" engine; the usual retort is all that does is double your chances of an engine failure.

      But you can't just add up the probability for a single event. If you imagine an engine failure probability of 50%, you see the problem -- such a plane couldn't even take off. (The correct probability is 75%.)

      So, the correct is what are the chances of X number of consecutive successful launches. Like, what are the chances of flipping heads 10 times in a row (maybe 1 in 500)? And I know I could figure that out, but I'm too lazy at the moment. I'd take a wild guess the odds of failure are around 1%.

      (BTW, a twin with an engine out IS very dangerous because of the risk of losing control authority to the working engine, or of shutting down the good engine in a panic. So ... a twin is safer ... in the hands of a competent poilot. :)

    3. Re:Yeah? by mduell · · Score: 3, Funny

      Like, what are the chances of flipping heads 10 times in a row (maybe 1 in 500)? And I know I could figure that out, but I'm too lazy at the moment.

      Oh come on! 2^10 is 1024! Every geek should know that! 1/1024 for 10 consecutive heads...

    4. Re:Yeah? by mpe · · Score: 2

      I'm a flight instructor, with a preference for single-engine. Twin pilots like to say how much safer they are with an "extra" engine; the usual retort is all that does is double your chances of an engine failure.

      The Russians built a rocket with something like 30 engines, none of the launch attempts made orbit, some barely made it off the pad.

      a twin with an engine out IS very dangerous because of the risk of losing control authority to the working engine, or of shutting down the good engine in a panic.

      Not just a theoretical risk either

    5. Re:Yeah? by mikerich · · Score: 3, Informative
      The Russians built a rocket with something like 30 engines, none of the launch attempts made orbit, some barely made it off the pad.

      To be fair the causes of the N1 failures (4 out of 4) were varied. The N1 had been designed to cope with multiple engine failures and still achieve orbital velocity.

      However, the death of Korolev - its designer, the appointment of the inexperienced Mishin and the ongoing wrangling between the Soviet design bureux (they had 3 Moon programmes running simulataneously) meant that the N1 was always a risk.

      There were no full test facilities so they couldn't perform a static engine test, the budget was minimal and the deadlines insane - that they got anything was a near miracle. That they got such incredible engines (which are now being used in Atlas rockets) was a miracle.

      For the record the N1 failures were caused by:

      1. An uncontained fire from a leaking fuel pipe which caused the computerised engine management system to shut down motors. The rocket lost thrust and was destroyed. The engineers increased the resilience of the piping to deal with resonances.
      2. An explosion in the liquid oxygen line to one engine after it ingested a fragment of welding slag. The failure itself was not critical, but the computers shut down the wrong engines, the rocket lost thrust and toppled back onto the launch pad, completely destroying the pad. The engineers improved welding techniques and fitted filters to piping.
      3. A failure in the attitude control system, the rocket tumbled in flight and was destroyed.
      4. A fire in the engine compartment which burned out of control. The rocket was destroyed from the ground, but was within seconds of achieving second stage ignition. It might well have made it to orbit had the controllers not intervened.
      A fifth N1 was prepared for launch but the programme was cancelled on the direct orders of the Kremlin. America had won the race to the Moon and the Soviets were concentrating on space stations and a race to Mars.

      As for the N1 being unusually unreliable, not necessarily so. The Soviets were always much more willing to fire their rockets and pick through the wreckage to determine problems than those in the West. So it was clear that the N1 was being debugged in the same manner.

      The Proton which launched the Astra satellite had a terrible record in its first few years. It is quite possible that the USSR could have sent men around the Moon in a Zond capsule before Apollo 8 - however, the mission was cancelled when the Proton booster developed cracks whilst sitting on the launch pad, (a problem that also delayed the N1).

      Nowadays the Proton is a genuine star - old but very reliable.

      a twin with an engine out IS very dangerous because of the risk of losing control authority to the working engine, or of shutting down the good engine in a panic.

      Not just a theoretical risk either

      Indeed (see the N1), or most tragically the Kegworth disaster here in the UK when the crew shut down the wrong engine of a British Midland 737. They had been dealing with an engine fire and trying to make an emergency landing at East Midlands Airport. For some reason, which has never been clear, both pilots came to the same conclusion which engine needed shutting down. They chose the wrong engine, the plane lost all power and crashed into the M1 motorway, 47 people died, amazingly 79 survived.

      Best wishes,
      Mike.

  23. Shuttle Reliability by MacAndrew · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I'm interested in the statistical projections for shuttle failures. The figure I've heard for catastrophic failure -- loss of vehicle and crew -- is around 1-in-300. Of course, lesser but nonetheless dramatic failures of the Apollo 13 sort are also a possibility. Finally, the shuttle fleet is getting old, and being a reusable craft the duty cycles might bring unpleasant surprises. Here's a recent article that made the rounds. (note the silver lining noted by the welder :)

    If/when there is a failure, will the statisticians go, "Yup, that's about what we expected?" If the shuttle beats or falls short of its reliability prediction, does that make it a good or bad craft? I'm talking about perceptions here, not objectivity. It's a lot easier to be sober about failures of unmanned rockets.

    It looks like we'll be talking seriously about what's going to replace the shuttle in just a few years. This could be good or bad for reliability -- while we've learned a lot, we have to admire the track record of the boring old Soyuz.

    1. Re:Shuttle Reliability by jelle · · Score: 2

      Well, STS113 is up in space now, so they launched around 113 shuttles, of which one catastrophic failure. So I'd say they're getting more than 99% right now. Better than all except the soyuz, but AFAIK those aren't launched with people on board each time.

      --
      --- Hindsight is 20/20, but walking backwards is not the answer.
    2. Re:Shuttle Reliability by MacAndrew · · Score: 2

      The number of mission is a bit fewer, less than 100; the missions are out of sequence and have some cancellations.

      Anyway, the reliability-to-date is not the right number. As those Wall Street types are always saying, "Past performance does not guarantee future returns." The shuttle could just be having a run of luck, with the odds of an accident on any given flight much higher.

      About the numbers

    3. Re:Shuttle Reliability by MacAndrew · · Score: 3, Interesting

      You're right, at NASA 113=112, but I did take the number from a NASA source. Go figure -- it was probably dated despite the date on the page. Interesting that the # of missions and flight number are coinciding.

      This claims 111: http://www-pao.ksc.nasa.gov/kscpao/factoids/orbite r.htm

      Anyway, the point was the probabilities! Future, not past, as past probabilities don't exist ... they're called outcomes. So, someone break out a calculotor before I have to.

    4. Re:Shuttle Reliability by jelle · · Score: 2

      All probabilities can be used as predictions. Probabilities are calculated done based on system knowledge and observations. Past probabilities still do exist, they help distinguishing between luck and destiny. For example: Given all detailed infomation that we have now about all past launches, what was the probability of a second failure? I'm not asking 'did it fail', because we know that it didn't, but I'm asking were we lucky or were we safe?

      That can be calculated too, and it is of something in the past. It's something that you can look at afterwards by re-calculating the probability with all the detailed information that were unknown factors before, such as weather, post-mission equipment inspection results, etc. It is useful because we can use information that was unavailable before those past launches. That may help improve the model used to predict the reliability of future launches, plus it may help finding weak spots.

      A way to look at it is: 'assuming we do all those launches again in similar weather and with the equipment, parts, and systems in the same state, would we have a large risk of getting more than one accident'.

      The 99% reliability estimation I gave was made based only on the past results. It's still a prediction, albeit maybe not a very reliable one... Given no other information, using the past results can be used as a predictor for the future probability...

      Of course I'm forgetting that the shuttles will need more maintenance than when they were new, which may reduce the reliability (just like a car). But then again too, they will have a lot more experience doing things too, or they may be aware of the aging and spend more time doing preventative maintenance which might offset the probability towards a higher reliability.

      And since I can only guess (random selection) about those other factors, the best estimate for the future probability that I can make is based on the past results.

      --
      --- Hindsight is 20/20, but walking backwards is not the answer.
    5. Re:Shuttle Reliability by MacAndrew · · Score: 2

      Right, but my assessment was that the past only provides data they may or may not help up to hone our future projections -- and will not directly supply that probability. In other words, a system with a "true" 10% chance of failure might survive 100 launches without incident, but how probable is that? Here, I'm not interested in challenging NASA's own 1-in-300 estimate, which I assume to be conservative and take into account all the variables of aging equipment etc.

      I noticed that the Apple calculator does exponents (after a mere 18 years!), and if I remember what to do the 1-in-300 per-launch probabilty yields a 100-launch survival probability of (299/300)^100 or about 72%. So if 1-in-300 is right, that's the number for planning purposes regardless of whether 1 or 100 of the last 113 launches ended in failure.

      If I'm right, which is why I asked. :)

  24. Re:Cheaper? by Dunark · · Score: 5, Informative

    The shuttle can't reach geosynchronous orbit, which is where the satellite is supposed to be.

  25. Giant Satellite Needs Giant Booster by gelfling · · Score: 2

    Seems like the problem is that they built a satellite too large to have any reasonable launch options. Or they could've gone to NASA and got one those Baaaadaaaaas Titan IV lifters. Probably would have cost more. Probably would be in orbit too.

    Either you get smaller satellites and go to the Chinese, the French, heck even the Israelis to launch it or you go NASA.

    1. Re:Giant Satellite Needs Giant Booster by Chairboy · · Score: 2

      That's silly. Titan IVs are the only booster that make the shuttle look economic.

      Titan IV = Super expensive, not too reliable, out of production.

  26. OT: by rat7307 · · Score: 2

    Bizarre... our sigs... dude.... whoah

    --
    Burma?
  27. Re:in case of slashdotting: by cyril3 · · Score: 2, Funny
    Gripping stuff.

    I was on the edge of my seat till the end.

    Someone will make a film of it I'm sure.

  28. Re:Cyberspace Junk? Protons are now by saskboy · · Score: 2

    http://cgi.ebay.ca/ws/eBayISAPI.dll?ViewItem&item= 1791768367
    Is my pen cyberspace junk too because it is on eBay now?

    Shame about that satelite. I guess Proton rockets from 1965 aren't the best thing to be using now. Classic cars are cool, but classic rockets are scary.

    --
    Saskboy's blog is good. 9 out of 10 dentists agree.
  29. More: New Scientist article by MacAndrew · · Score: 2

    New Scientist publishes a great news service for this sort of thing -- this earlier article discusses some additional dimensions of the accident and the possibility of rescue.

  30. Re:Cheaper? by Bob+Loblaw · · Score: 2, Funny

    Not without a place to put his fulcrum he won't!

  31. Re:Secretivity... by Gogo+Dodo · · Score: 2
    (I wonder what insurance policies are like on satellites, if they're even available.)

    You can get satellite and launch insurance. I don't know what the terms are like, but I imagine that premium is fairly high. You can insure almost anything these days, it will just cost you.

  32. separately from its payload? by ceswiedler · · Score: 3, Funny

    Kreidenko said a secondary booster, which was due to propel the satellite to a higher altitude, had malfunctioned and was circling the earth separately from its payload.

    This is a very funny way of saying, "the damn booster just broke off and flew away on its own."

  33. Listen to Alf, dude... by Cheese+Cracker · · Score: 3, Funny

    With Iridium it is much cheaper to call phone-phone. Landline LD to an Iridium phone is abour $10/min. whereas Iridium to Iridium is about $1/min.

    With 10-10-220, you could talk up to 20 minutes, anywhere in the U.S. and to Canada for just 99. I'm sure Iridium serve some purpose, but not for city slickers. ;)

  34. Malfunction? by eander315 · · Score: 2
    "Kreidenko said a secondary booster, which was due to propel the satellite to a higher altitude, had malfunctioned and was circling the earth separately from its payload."

    That's what they call a malfunction? I imagine it's a pretty big deal that the booster stay attached to function properly. Sounds like someone forgot to use something better than velcro to attach the two.

  35. Ion booster by Tablizer · · Score: 2, Informative

    About a year ago a European satellite had a partial booster failure, but eventually made it into the proper orbit anyhow because it had an ion engine that was powered via the solar panels.

    Although not fast enough to be the primary final booster (may take years to get to right orbit), it can be a nice backup booster.

    I wonder why they did not do that for this one? I suppose they figured the cost of the ion engine and related weight was greater than the projected risk of failure.

  36. Re:Here's why not by FTL · · Score: 3, Insightful
    All very valid points. Except for:

    >1) The space shuttle fleet is fully booked for the foreseeable future, mostly on space station stuff.

    Columbia is sitting at KSC without anything to do. It has one mission left on the books, then they're not sure what to do with it. It is too heavy to make it to the space station with any useful cargo.

    However, it would still be highly inadvisable to go chasing this satellite for the rest of the reasons you mentioned. That third stage is essentially an undetonated bomb, poking and proding it during an EVA would be unwise.

    --
    Slashdot monitor for your Mozilla sidebar or Active Desktop.
  37. A possible rescue mission by XNormal · · Score: 2

    There's no use in having a comm satellite designed for geosynchronous orbit as a lawn ornament on the ISS.

    A possible rescue mission would be to capture it with the space shuttle, attach a booster and transfer it to its intended orbit and orbital slot. I doubt it will be cost-effective, though.

    BTW, it was insured.

    --
    Stop worrying about the risks of nuclear power and start worrying about the risks of not using nuclear power.
  38. Re:It means... by patiwat · · Score: 2

    The Proton made it to Low Earth Orbit without any problem. The space station is at LEO. The problem occured with the Block DM upper stage rocket which was to take the satellite to Geosynch orbit.

  39. Re:Secretivity... by patiwat · · Score: 2

    > What I am now wondering is how anyone found out about this, and discovered the finer details.

    SES, the company that would have operated the satellite, and Astra, the company that built the satellite, are normal western companies. International Launch Services markets the Proton launch vehicle, which is made by a Russian company and launched out of Kazakhstan. SES is a major client of International Launch Services.

    Why wouldn't ILS divulge as much information as it could about this unfortunate incident? If that was your satellite, wouldn't you pound the table to make sure that you got the inside data?

    Sheesh, this isn't the 60's, with shifty Russians lying to the west....

  40. Re:The Endeavor to the Rescue? by theBitBucket · · Score: 2, Interesting

    To quote "FAllen Angels" (Thanks Jerry P!) "It's all a matter of delta-v.".

    Both the ISS (and currently Endeavor) are in low Earth orbit, as is the alleged satellite. Still, it ain't like you can just say "Houston, kin I borrow the keys to the shuttle tonight?". Besides, there aren't ANY gas stations up there for that baby.

    I much prefer the solution that was used recently on a U.S. satellite that lost one of it's positioning motors. The engineers found that they could use an on-board electric motor to generate a magnetic field that would push against the Earth's magnetosphere....thereby turing the satellite. Bravo guys! And since it's powered by the solar cells, it'll last lot longer than the fuel supply for the original motor. Gee...we should build them ALL that way.

    After all, the 1K needs only to reach a more elliptical orbit in order to start moving on out. Fire that puppy up and get it's batteries charged. Heck, considering the field strentgh needed, it would probably have to rotate and "flap" every antenna and panel it has. I can't escape the picture of that thing trying to "swim" it's way into orbit.....ah the irony...

  41. Re:Cheaper? by fferreres · · Score: 2

    Couldn't they add a "strong" parachute, very big one, so that if something fails (and it didn't explode) then the payload would slowly return to earth?

    Wouldn't that be a cheap solution to the X% of failures? You should only pray to your god so that it lands on firm land :)

    --
    unfinished: (adj.)
  42. Space Salvage Rights by herbierobinson · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If somebody else went up and fixed it, who would own the satellite?

    --
    An engineer who ran for Congress. http://herbrobinson.us
    1. Re:Space Salvage Rights by silentbozo · · Score: 2

      According to the article, it too was a victim of a bad 4th stage booster. This happened back in '98 - does anyone know if asiasat 3 made it back to Earth into the correct orbit?

  43. Re:Cheaper? by clickety6 · · Score: 2


    So how did NASA get those shuttles out to that rogue asteroid that was threatening all of Earth some years back?

    --
    ----------------------------------- My Other Sig Is Hilarious -----------------------------------
  44. Space salvage rights? by silentbozo · · Score: 2

    Consider the tanker that went down off the coast of Spain. When that sucker sprang a leak, they hired salvors to try and save the ship and the cargo (this was before Spain and Portugal told them to get lost, whereupon they sunk in choppy seas.) Assuming that we had infrastructure in space, could we apply a similar idea and have space salvors recovering satellites? That would seem to me a better idea than keeping a 3 man crew in orbit on taxpayer dollars just to maintain the ISS, and the insurance company that insures the satellite would probably pony up a few mil just so they could avoid paying out on that particular policy.

  45. Re:Secretivity... by snatchitup · · Score: 2

    Insurance is very expensive, yes indeed.

    I know that American Mobile Satellite had insurance about, oh, 8 years ago for the launch. It was something like $60M. The bird was the size of a school bus from what I understand.

    At the beginning of a project. You need to decide. Do we even want insurance? Do we feel lucky?

  46. "software glitch" now suspected as cause by mkweise · · Score: 2, Funny

    According to the Moscow Times: "Kreidenko said in a telephone interview that a glitch in the software that controls the DM-3 may have caused the failure."

    Well, at least the russians don't get inches mixed up with centimeters like *some* space agencies have been known to...

    --
    Gentlemen! You can't fight in here, this is the War Room!
  47. Re:The Endeavor to the Rescue? by phillymjs · · Score: 2

    They won't be able to do it during the current mission, but there is a precedent for a satellite rescue, I read about it yesterday. I don't remember the particulars, but the shuttle snagged a satellite that didn't reach its intended orbit, and the faulty booster module on it was replaced so it was able to reach said orbit.

    Dunno if they'll be able to do that in this case since the way the article read, the launch vehicle was supposed to deliver yesterday's satellite all the way up to geosync orbit. I presume the onboard satellite booster is the engine we see on the satellites as they come spinning out of the shuttle cargo bay, so this bird might not have had one, nor a way to easily attach one.

    ~Philly

  48. Re:Secretivity... by mikerich · · Score: 2
    What I am now wondering is how anyone found out about this, and discovered the finer details. It seems that Russia have done alot of things in secret, in the space race of the 60s for instance. The US has also had it's fair share of foul-ups (Hubble, anyone?). How often could this sort of thing be happening, and more importantly, how much is it costing?

    International regulations insist that anything that achieves orbit is given some form of designation. So we have a pretty good idea how how much stuff is up there.

    The Soviets used a catch-all Kosmos designation for most of their failures. There are well over 2000 satellites in the Kosmos series, but this was complicated in that some Kosmos missions were genuine science, military or test vehicles, whilst others were probes and satellites that didn't get where they were meant to go.

    To make things more complicated, the Soviets would often say that a Kosmos probe had completed its mission - even if had been DOA. Which made working out exactly what was working and what wasn't a complete nightmare for the West. No doubt the Kremlin loved these sorts of games.

    To take just one example a 1964 Venus probe should have become a member of the Venera series; but it instead became the relatively anonymous Kosmos 27 after it failed to escape Earth orbit.

    Once a probe was on its way out of orbit the Soviets usually then assigned it a proper mission name, although they complicated things by often using more than one name - so Zond (probe) was sometimes substituted for Mars or Venera!

    Anything that failed to climb into orbit was usually not assigned a name and in Soviet days was rarely mentioned - just look at how successfully they covered up the N1 Moon rocket until after the collapse of Communism.

    Nowadays the Russians are much more open, even to the extent of confirming military launches.

    As for the cost? Who knows, so much of space expenditure is military I doubt we will ever find out. The Soviet programme was a crippling expense for their government and foolish attempts to match the Shuttle using the (admittedly far superior) Buran were one of the reasons for the final collapse of Communism.

    Best wishes,
    Mike.

  49. Re:Secretivity... by mikerich · · Score: 2
    It is possible for the US to send a space shuttle to rendezvous with the satellite and help it on to its intended orbit. However, that is very very costly and is probably not worth it for Alcatel.

    It may be possible - it depends if the satellite is orbiting in an inclined orbit like the Shuttle or if it has been injected into an Equatorial orbit ready for transfer to geosynchronous orbit. If it is the latter then the Shuttle could not reach it.

    The reason that they will not attempt it is that the Shuttle no longer has permission to handle commercial cargoes. These were all removed as an unnecessary risk following the Challenger disaster. If the Shuttle were to attempt a rendezvous (which it did do with a Hughes satellite that failed to achieve orbit), it would be approaching a satellite with a fully fueled booster. NASA wouldn't countenance sending men close to such a potential bomb.

    Best wishes,
    Mike.

  50. Re:Secretivity... by gorilla · · Score: 2

    Hubble was designed to be fixable. However, that in itself means a great cost. If you add up the cost of the service missions plus the extra costs in the original design, you find that you could launch a series of non-servicable Hubbles instead.

  51. The true culprit is not of this world. by GMontag · · Score: 2

    From The Toronto Star: Tuesday's failed launch followed an accident on Oct. 15, when a Russian unmanned Soyuz-U rocket blew up half a minute after liftoff. Space officials said later that an alien object was found in the rocket's fuel line.

    Apparently, the Star, while reporting on this story, has let the cat out of the bag about a previous incident. I tried to submit it earlier yesterday but I guess it looked a little shrill. Not so hysterical now huh ;-)

  52. Re:Secretivity... by glesga_kiss · · Score: 2
    the Shuttle no longer has permission to handle commercial cargoes

    Oh, great. So every time a shuttle gets launched, that's another couple more spy satelites watching me. I feel safer already.

  53. Re:Secretivity... by mikerich · · Score: 3, Funny
    Oh, great. So every time a shuttle gets launched, that's another couple more spy satelites watching me. I feel safer already. :)

    I wouldn't worry, a billion of your tax dollars are being 'well spent' carrying girders up to the ISS so that they'll have something to attach other girders to in the future.

    When I put it like that the ISS sounds like a colossal waste of money. Perhaps I should mention all the really useful science going on up there - umm... err... ahem...

    Still, I'm sure its a very nice girder - the Rolls Royce of girders, the sort of girder that Harrods would offer to their clientele should they be in the building trade.

    Best wishes,
    Mike.

  54. heavens-above.com by mks113 · · Score: 2
    Heavens Above tracks all kinds of things, and when they are visible from your location. Neat site!

    Michael