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Ellison: Linux Will Soon Decimate MS Windows
cioxx writes "Speaking to a few-hundred ISVs at an Oracle-sponsored event in New York, Larry Ellison made a bold prediction , also covered in Infoworld, stating: "(Microsoft has) already been killed by one open-source product. Slaughtered, wiped out, taken from market dominance to irrelevance [...]", referring to Apache's displacement of MS IIS server. He continues on with a claim that battle for datacenter dominance is looming with a clear advantage on the side of Open-Source platforms, and desktop would follow once Star Office becomes completely "usable" to compete with MS Office. "And it's going to happen to them again on Linux." Newsforge also has a related article on Oracles ongoing linux efforts.
...and she's a marketer.
She does so to get a little street credibility with geeks.
My point? If the marketers are going to software like this to get a marketing edge, then there is a chance Ellison is right.
668: Neighbour of the Beast
IIS never had a chance. IIS came late. Everyone wanted a web site so they learned/ran Apache. IIS was never and has never been dominant. I do agree that Open source will take over for alot of things and Microsoft will be relegated to either another Linux distro or a application and hardware only company.
Gorkman
on PostgreSQL and MySQL.
why should the market forces that apply to MS not apply to Oracle?
Build those yachts while the sun shines, Larry!
Humorous signatures are over-rated.
So how does that explain the chaos from Code Red?
... and the PC will be made obsolete by thin
clients, stupid boxes without a hard disk (predicted by Mr. Oracle from way back).
Does anybody remember those days?
Microsoft says windows will destroy linux,
Oracle says linux will destroy windows
Baath party says republican-guard will crush allies
Washington says guard will be crushed
What's going on? It's almost as if there is some kind of weighting to what people are saying based on the outcome they favour. I just don't understand it.
it is great news to read Larry Ellison telling nice words about Open Source Software
I had to deal only remotely with Oracles licensing habbits. Seemed even more complicated than "open license" from MS.
I had to deal closer with Oracles interpretation of SQL-Standards "we don't obey them, we set them"
I had to deal with Oracles "bundled utilities" - documentation-files running across 400 screen pages. Comments like "if you want to change a tipped command, just simply erase it and type it new (decades after GNU readline)Where is the big difference in the companies attitude to Microsoft? Am I to blind to see?
Larry Ellison gets his name in the papers!
Sorry if I sound underwhelmed, but I think this is just another example of him doing a good job at getting some publicity.
Yeah Apache's winning, on the server side, Linux is winning... but the desktop, if it ever happens, is waaaay into the future.
Microsoft isn't stupid, they won't go down that easy. And Ellison is THAT good at self-promotion.
Looking at the figures it doesn't look to me like IIS has gone from market leader to irrelevance. For the last 5 years - since IIS appeared - Apache has maintained a market share roughly twice that of IIS. But both shares have grown.
The point is that Apache domiantes the server world becuase it comes with all commercial Unix boxes. And large companies are happy that this piece of open source that came bundled with AIX or HPUX or Solaris has some kind of formal support and backing (if the Apache project ever looked like folding, HP/Sun/IBM would keep it going).
Only recently are we seeing the real dominace of Linux in ISPs, and that again is partly becuase of IBM and Sun (Cobalt, etc). So I don't think there is any linkage between the uptake of Apache and the corporate uptake of Open Source in general, either on the server or the client.
Art is the mathematics of emotion
I do believe that Microsoft's power will fade, due in large part to Office competitors. I can't see how Microsoft can maintain their Office monopoly when they keep rachetting up the price. Even the OEM version, bundled with a new PC, is several hundred dollars. So many people will turn to alternatives, like MS Works. Once many people are running scaled back versions like Works, then some people will start realizing that StarOffice (and others) are better, and even cheaper. Not everyone will switch, but all you need is a critical mass, which will give competitors enough money to reinvest in improving their office suites, allowing them to compete head to head with the full version of Office. Microsoft will have to cut prices for an indefinite period, which will lower profits. Lower profits in the Office division will reduce or eliminate their ability to absorb losses in other divisions, forcing a retreat from other markets. Sure, they have large cash reserves, but you'd be amazed how fast you can blow through billions of dollars when you're forced to compete for the first time in years.
The only thing that's needed, as I see it, is a competitor to Windows. I would love for someone to make Linux into something the average computer user would be comfortable using, but I just don't think it'll ever happen. I'd love for OS X to run on commodity hardware, but I don't think that'll happen either. So I'm not sure that Microsoft will ever lose the desktop OS monopoly. I can always hope though.
"The question of whether a computer can think is no more interesting than that of whether a submarine can swim" -EWD
I have limited experience (managed to install and set up RH 8.0 as a router for my home network) with linux but here are a few thoughts.
Linux is not ready for the dsesktop. The recent discussion about mozilla incorporating smooth scrolling illustrates a fundamental problem within the linux community. Most *nix users who want to see linux replace windows on the desktop aren't willing to compete with MS in the areas which really matter to a non techie user. Many people here laughed and scorned the screenshots of the recent longhorn builds where you had lots of new UI features, admittedly most of them will probably not amount to anything but the UI does matter.
For a non techie user the choice at the moment is windows which is very easy to use but is prone to crashes amnd viruses, alternatively they have linux which is very difficult to get the hang of when coming from a windows background. Reliability means nothing if the user can't get anything done with linux. I'm no MS fanboy but I do beleive that they have gone in the right direction with the XP interface, and I also don't think you can really argue with the fact that games, multimedia and simple office apps are all easier to use for a non techie user on a windows platform.
Now whether MS dominace is down to a genuinely more instinctive UI or whether people are just more familiar with it (and hence more productive) is down to debate. I'm sure many linux advocates will dismiss the idea that MS's windows UI is "better" that any of linux distos but they are reeally missing the point.
If you want linux on the desktop then linux developers need to compete with MS. This includes making sure there is support for all types of multimedia, improving choice of games, improving window responsiveness, and all the other little MS UI elements that most *nix users would probably consider frivolous.
Exactly. And here is the Chambers 21st Century Dictionary definition of decimate:
decimate verb ( decimated, decimating ) to reduce greatly in number; to destroy a large part or number of something. decimation noun. decimator noun.
ETYMOLOGY: 17c in this sense; 16c in historical sense 'to select by lot and execute one in every ten': from Latin decimare to take a tenth person or thing, from decem ten.
Ho hum for the life of a bear
Comment removed based on user account deletion
'Decimate' means to reduce by one-tenth. It originates from the punishment for mutiny given to a whole Roman legion: killing every tenth man. So if you think that Windows installations are 10% less than they would have been if Linux didn't exist, then Linux has already decimated Windows, at least on the server.
:-).
It's the remaining 90% that is at stake
-- Ed Avis ed@membled.com
True, definitions change, but it's still reasonable to encourage people to use a more appropriate word instead of morphing the meaning of a similar but different word. An example is the American adoption of the word "momentarily" to mean "in a moment" when it really mans "for a moment". When an American Airlines hostess announces that "we will be landing momentarily" I always picture us doing a touch-and-go!
Following your argument, microsoft hadn't a chance when they (finally) got into the internet hype and launched Internet Explorer. They were very late to acknoledge the importance of internet, and netscape had by then achieved a pretty dominant position. However, they did succeed in displacing Netscape, and didn't succeed in displacing Apache. Obviously, there are other reasons why IIS never really got any foothold, Apache being open source and a really good product being the most import one, I think.
---
"The chances of a demonic possession spreading are remote -- relax."
I think it'd be interesting to see the number of times Ellison has come up and claimed 'this or that will kill Microsoft' over the last few years.
I seem to remember something about network computers. As far as I can tell that was the biggest bit of vapor hardware ever. I've never seen anything like that in the enterprise.
Were there any others?
But not to say that I don't think that LInux has a chance. From where I sit I see lots of 4 Way Xeon MP servers coming along that are being at least tested against a Sun box. I've seen them save some companies over $2.0M a year in just hardware maintenance costs alone. So it can be done. However, they're moving Sun out of the datacenter with these, not Microsoft. Mainly because Microsoft was never in that space (yet).
As a rock-in-roll Physicist once said, No matter where you go, there you are.