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Linux in 2004?

An anonymous reader writes "John Terpstra and Eric S. Raymond have started the ball rolling on LinuxWorld's poll of the community for what they think will happen in the world of Linux in 2004. Terpstra says 'I predict that during 2004 at least one significant USA government body will adopt Linux on the desktop.'" Depending on how you define "significant", this has already occurred.

82 of 456 comments (clear)

  1. As long as ESR sticks to asking the questions.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    ...and not answering them himself.

    Windows will be obsolete when PCs cost less than $350: http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=02/02/28/132424 8

    MS monopoly to collapse in 6 months: http://slashdot.org/articles/00/12/13/216237_F.sht ml (predicted in Dec. 2000)

  2. Apt by rf0 · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I found the following intresting

    "I think 2004 is going to be a big year for Fedora and Suse, and a challenge for Debian (because Fedora now offers apt for RPM)."

    Well apart from the fact that apt for rpm has been around for a while and also debian packages usually come configured a lot better than fedora are aren't as buggy.

    Of course with the recent Debian security breach things might not be that easy

    Rus

    1. Re:Apt by mhesseltine · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Agreed. The power of apt isn't necessarily the tool, it's the repository that apt connects to. After all, it's the thousands of packages that are tested against each other that creates a cohesive system.

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      Overrated / Underrated : Moderation :: Anonymous Coward : Posting
    2. Re:Apt by LnxAddct · · Score: 5, Funny
      I run Fedora and Debian and apt for Fedora is pathetic compared to apt for Debian. Its mainly because the repositories aren't as large and I could probably fix that with some configuration changes, but go to freshrpms.net, the entire list can be viewed all at once. I know that on Debian I could type "apt-get install GodLikePowers" and in seconds I'd have god like powers, but if I were to type that in Fedora I'd get:
      Reading Package Lists...
      Done Building Dependency Tree...
      Done E: Couldn't find package GodLikePowers

      Once the sources for apt for rpm become more robust, then Debian may have something to worry about, after all, the installation of Fedora actually made me smile it was so easy.
      -Steve
      P.S. I know that GodLikePowers also wouldn't work on Debian, it was simply an example.
    3. Re:Apt by rf0 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      With apt I know that if I install a program it will work or at least be given a configuration screen to edit the settings

      Rus

    4. Re:Apt by sg_oneill · · Score: 2, Informative


      Well Debian has more no doubt about it, they've been at the apt game for years. But on fedora do yum list "*" |wc -l I had about 1,800 packages and as any fedora user knows about 10 new ones have been added each day since its release. So it _COULD_ catch up to debians 3,000 packages couldn't it? Its only been a few weeks, give it some time.


      Eek. But thats the problem. Its not even how many damn packages there are. Its the fact that they all work.... together... Debian has a stable collection that plays well together thru time patience and paranoic adherence to process.

      However if fedora can pull that off, then thats stunning and I aplaud red hat for it. RPM-Hell sucks.

      --
      Excuse the Unicode crap in my posts. That's an apostrophe, and slashdot is busted.
  3. My Bet Is On 2006 by dalutong · · Score: 4, Informative

    Partly because it will be my 10 year anniversary of using GNU/Linux... but practically, too.

    I can't really put my finger on just why that year sticks out, but it does. I suspect that it will take a year+ for 2.6 to mature/be accepted to the point where most major distros are shipping it and most howtos are being written for it. I also suspect that both GNOME and KDE will reach another major version by 2006 (haven't checked their road maps... just hoping.) I also hope that device support will continue to grow as it has, configuration tools will mature more, and the "your mama" test will be more easily passed. I doubt all that will happen in the next twelve months.

    As for what I think COULD happen? I think a major U.S. gov't agency could start putting GNU/Linux into major use. I think we will see a lot more adoption abroad. Maybe even a first world national government promoting it in some way. I understand GNU/Linux desktop usage will top Mac desktop usage (was a /. article on that before.. that or linuxworld.com)...

    Now I'm just rambling. This made very little sense. sorry. It is 2:30 AM EST... I'm going to bed.

    --

    What comes first, finding a teacher or becoming a student?
    1. Re:My Bet Is On 2006 by Billly+Gates · · Score: 5, Insightful
      I personally think it will never happen. Remember the past stories about the NSA using and giving away software for linux?

      Well Microsoft threw a fit and is one of the biggest lobbiests. They pressured dozens of senators with the phrase "Lost jobs" and "Communist" and they wrote legislation to ban code being release to the GPL and Linux at the NSA. Now are tax dollars are used to buy copies of Windows to help Microsoft.

      Gotta love corporate influence.

      Other governments its a different story because they are not all whores like ours.

    2. Re:My Bet Is On 2006 by Rimbo · · Score: 4, Insightful
      Other governments its a different story because they are not all whores like ours.


      I'm afraid that other countries' reluctance to use Microsoft has very little to do with being whores.

      I mean, put yourself in their shoes. You can use a foreign OS that you can't see the insides of to connect to the internet made in a country that is a superpower and wants to stay that way. Or, you can pick Linux, which may be made partially in the USA but at least you can look on the insides, modify it, and have your geeks keep an eye for any trojans.

      Deciding not to use Windows has little to do with whether or not they're whores and everything to do with nationalism and national security.

      In fact if anything, other countries are just whores to their own businesses instead of USA's businesses. Which makes sense, obviously.

      Generally corporate interference with and influence on government increases -- out of necessity -- the closer a country is to Socialism. This should be obvious: In a Socialist system, influencing the government is the ONLY way for a business to be successful! For that reason, the US government isn't the big whore it's made out to be compared to the rest of the world.
    3. Re:My Bet Is On 2006 by GreyWolf3000 · · Score: 3, Insightful
      What's really disturbing is that we've escalated our outpouring of "patriotism." We've made patriotism the ritualistic celebration of a flag, and not what it stands for.

      Breaks out tinfoil hat.

      No sooner did the towers fall than China had us flags and bumber stickers shipping in at alarmingly sudden rates...

      Patriotism for anyone in the free world should be the celebration of liberty, the glorification of the decision to exersize that liberty for the benefit of humanity, and the denouncement of taking advantage of said liberty.

      --
      Slashdot: Where people pretend to be twice as smart as they really are by behaving like children.
    4. Re:My Bet Is On 2006 by Celvin · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I think we will see a lot more adoption abroad.

      I assume you mean abroad as in not US. The comparison under is not quite fair, favors small countries and is in no way accurate, but who cares... My point is, Linux is widely adopted outside the US.

      From counter.li.org:

      USA: 94.90 users/million
      Some states:
      New York: 78.35 users/million
      Texas: 90.95 users/million
      California: 101.52 users/million
      Arizona: 111.53 users/million
      Maryland: 117.78 users/million
      Pensylvania: 166.60 users/million

      Some other countries:
      Germany: 135.25 users/million
      Spain: 144.31 users/million
      Poland: 183.89 users/million
      Holand: 215.54 users/million
      Norway: 445.37 users/million
      Estonia: 511.26 users/million
      Finland: 610.85 users/million

      My teacher was right, statistics can be fun, in a dry, inacurate sort of way... :)

      --
      -- If ignorance is bliss, why aren't there more happy people?
  4. US Gov't on Linux by CompMD · · Score: 5, Insightful
    The NSA has their own spiffy modified linux kernel which is actually pretty nice. I haven't had any problems with it. Interesting how they won't say if they actually use it internally or not. With budgets the way they are I don't doubt that there will be some significant moves toward putting linux on the desktop of government officials in the near future. In fact, I bet there are lots of folks in the FBI computer crimes division that would be pretty happy to see that happen.

    1. Re:US Gov't on Linux by Soko · · Score: 5, Funny

      A distro from the NSA? Whoa.

      That just has to be called TinfoilHat Linux.

      Soko

      --
      "Depression is merely anger without enthusiasm." - Anonymous
    2. Re:US Gov't on Linux by Billly+Gates · · Score: 5, Funny

      I thought Microsoft banned it

    3. Re:US Gov't on Linux by mickwd · · Score: 4, Funny

      ...or Feds-ora.

    4. Re:US Gov't on Linux by doodleboy · · Score: 2, Informative

      Actually, there already is a Tinfoil Hat linux. It's a bootable single-floppy distro for gpg-signing and/or wiping files.

      The NSA's version is called SE-Linux, for Security Enhanced Linux. It has a "strong, flexible mandatory access control architecture incorporated into the major subsystems of the kernel. The system provides a mechanism to enforce the separation of information based on confidentiality and integrity requirements. This allows threats of tampering and bypassing of application security mechanisms to be addressed and enables the confinement of damage that can be caused by malicious or flawed applications." Or some such.

      If you really need security and don't think running Bastille-linux is going to be enough, then ACLs a la SE-Linux might be the way to go. I suppose no OS is truly secure, but it's hard to imagine even talented crackers getting very far against it.

  5. What will drive Linux adoption by mhesseltine · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It's not about having "good enough" software. It's about having feature-for-feature replacements that are open and secure. It isn't enough that sendmail, procmail, spamassassin, ical, etc. can be put together to implement most of the MS Exchange features; it's going to be the drop-in replacement that drives adoption.

    Once people are used to using the drop-in replacements, they will be able to migrate away from closed and proprietary solutions. Until the drop-ins are available, Linux will not make huge inroads. (all IMHO, of course)

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    1. Re:What will drive Linux adoption by spitzak · · Score: 4, Insightful

      No. There seems to be this big delusion that somehow OpenSource has to rewrite virtually every commercial application.

      Maybe commercial companies will port to Linux!! Oh no, you say, isn't that illegal by RMS's communist manifesto? Sorry to break your fantasy, but it is legal, only Microsoft wants you to believe otherwise.

      Take a look at the special effects industry and you will see that there is lots of commercial, closed-source, for-profit software being written for Linux.

      PS: What Linux really needs is to be pre-installed on machines in a store. However it appears that Microsoft is still disallowing dual-boot machines to be sold.

    2. Re:What will drive Linux adoption by morganjharvey · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Taking your comment one step further...

      Multimedia might also be another roadblock. And by multimedia I am including games and the like. Joe just wants to use the computer, and most likely his computer usage consists of about %90 games and web browsing. Two good examples are RealMedia and Flash. I realise that there are solutions to both of these, but the quality is nothing compared to what is available for Mac or Windows.

      Also, there are still some hardware issues to work out. Digital cameras, printers, scanners, and others are still not quite where they should be. Yes, some distributions have made some of these simple to set up, but what you and I see as "simple" scares the pants off of the non-techie -- especially when a CLI is involved -- who probably doesn't know that they should configure their XFree86 server to run at x Hz instead of y Hz. The fact that my particular digital camera requires me to download and compile gphoto from cvs to use it under linux pretty much means that no noob would have any luck with this particular camera. Here's another chance to plead with hardware manufacturers for open drivers...

      One last issue, and probably the most disturbingly humorous to me, is the public's view on Linux, the BSD's, etc.: I've talked to quite a few people (*cough*myfamily*cough*) who have honestly believed that the open os's were "illegal" tools meant to be used by "hackers" to "hack into" your "network." This here is something that could be solved simply with a little more advertising and the like, but advertising in mainstream channels costs money, and I'm pretty sure that the FSF isn't ready to shell out for a public awareness campaign to let people know that this stuff isn't just for the hardcore techie (well, mostly... see above)

      The good thing is is that these are all fixable and known problems, so hopefully they'll change soon.

      Just my two cents worth...
      -mo

    3. Re:What will drive Linux adoption by screenrc · · Score: 2, Funny

      Intresting. But, since when did
      the Microsoft operating systems proved themselves?
      Very many of you, have not yet forgotten
      the Blue Screen of Death. It is still all over
      the place, and Windows has never proved it itself;
      and yet, Windows has been widely adapted.

    4. Re:What will drive Linux adoption by Enucite · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Two good examples are RealMedia and Flash. I realise that there are solutions to both of these, but the quality is nothing compared to what is available for Mac or Windows.

      Really? My experiences don't agree with your observations.

      I haven't had any problems with Flash, it's just as annoying as the Windows version when displaying ads, lets me play the little flash games, navigate all the flash sites, and see all the flashtastic content on the web.

      As for RealMedia, their new Helix Player has been working great for me. So good that I actually install it on all my Linux desktops, unlike RealOne for Windows which I never touch.

    5. Re:What will drive Linux adoption by darnok · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Actually, I'd like to think 2004 might be the year Linux gets a feature-for-feature equivalent to MS Exchange, that supports MS Outlook, Evolution and a few other key clients.

      When such a solution appears, that will mark a major milestone for Linux in potentially replacing Windows in many organisations.

    6. Re:What will drive Linux adoption by BrokenHalo · · Score: 3, Insightful
      The arrival of more morons to the mailing lists? No thanks.

      That's not exactly an attitude that's going to pursuade the world that Linux is a viable alternative.

      OK, none of us have time to be full-time babysitters, but it doesn't hurt to give the newbie a bit of friendly help when it's required, and it goes a long way towards the user feeling good about it at a time when getting anything to work can be frustrating.

      I can still remember the frustration 9 years ago when I was struggling to get an X server running on my hardware, and scrolling through usenet responses from asshat geeks who couldn't be bothered being polite. Fortunately there was enough positive response to make me want to persevere.

    7. Re:What will drive Linux adoption by RoLi · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Actually if you look at all the "new" markets that were irrelevant or didn't exist at all 10 years ago, Linux dominates them all:

      • Webservers (irrelevant in 1993)
      • Clusters (also irrelevant and not widely used in 1993)
      • Embedded systems operating systems (only recently the bulk of embedded systems has enough power to run a full blown OS)

      That's why Microsoft is so afraid. All new stuff is going the Linux-route while Microsoft is basically stuck without any new revenue sources.

      But on established stuff, you are right, drop-in replacements are very successful, probably the best example is Samba which may be already used more often than Windows files servers...

  6. I think... by LnxAddct · · Score: 5, Funny

    I think that there will be at least three computers in my house with Linux installed on them... Oh wait...
    Depending on how you define "in my house", this has already occurred.

  7. My predictions by RighteousFunby · · Score: 2

    DRM will have been adopted (albeit forcibly) in the kernel to cope with the Fritz chip. We'll be on about kernel 2.6.4 or thereabouts. KDE 3.2, possibly even 3.3, will have been released, and GNOME will be up to about 2.8, maybe 3. Around 15 governments will have taken on Linux in some way or form. MS's FUD is beginning to weaken.

    And there are still Soviet Russia jokes on Slashdot. :)

    1. Re:My predictions by GreyWolf3000 · · Score: 4, Insightful
      I disagree about the Fritz chip. Even Windows users hate it (that know about it). If you think that the Fritz chip would pass without people knowing about it, I would have to disagree with that too.

      The kernel will get up to at least 2.6.10 by December '04, and KDE will probably release 3.3 (or 4.0) later on in the year as well, along with Gnome 3.0.

      --
      Slashdot: Where people pretend to be twice as smart as they really are by behaving like children.
  8. Doesn't DOD already use it? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I thought that DOD went out and purchased 10000 licenses of Star Office from Sun... Weren't those for Linux? Or were they for winders?

  9. The image we want to project? by toddestan · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Maybe having Linux being "good enough for government work" isn't exactly the image we want Linux to have. Just like I think having Linux on cheap, disposable, sub-par computers from places like Wal-mart may not be the best thing either.

    The real goal is to have people see Linux as a viable alternative, not a cheap Windows imitation or some eccentric thing the government uses.

    1. Re:The image we want to project? by GreyWolf3000 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Being low-cost is a good way to win people over. The software quality will speak for itself. If a distribution feels quirky, slow, and unpolished, that alone will make Linux look "cheap." If it is Done Right (TM), people will actually just think that Windows is too expensive.

      --
      Slashdot: Where people pretend to be twice as smart as they really are by behaving like children.
    2. Re:The image we want to project? by Prof.Phreak · · Score: 2, Interesting

      VERY good point. I've heard so many stories about "Oh, I've tried Linux and it's slow", and then questioning further, I find out that they've installed it on their old Pentium1 box - well D0H, of course it will be slow compared to Windows running on a P4!

      The image needs to be: If you have a GOOD computer in your home, use it for Linux! Give the trash computer to Windows. Most people will quickly realize that Linux outperforms Windows and is snappier to use if the hardware is equivalent.

      (I actually have 2 computers with relatively common hardware, one running XP, the other running Linux, and I must say that Linux feels much faster).

      --

      "If anything can go wrong, it will." - Murphy

    3. Re:The image we want to project? by GreyWolf3000 · · Score: 2, Interesting
      The software quality already speaks for itself. Nobody uses Linux.

      Actually, across the world millions of people use Linux.

      Why? Because it supports a tiny fraction of the hardware normal people actually want to use,

      Define "tiny." It actually supports more hardware than Windows does. It also supports most hardware that most people have. Hardly "tiny."

      because other than Mozilla, Evolution and Open Office there is simply no usable software that runs on it,

      I use many, many more pieces of software than those three.

      because the distros come with 100s of completely awful, useless piece of crap betas with no sense of a homogeneous user interface,

      Linux distributions offer more software by default than Windows does. There is crap software for Windows as well. If Windows shipped with, say, a really lame filesharing client that constantly crashed, would that have anything to do with the quality of the software that said client is running on?

      because at least 3 different modern distros actually don't support dual monitors on 2 separate video cards in spite of what the config software says,

      The distros all run the same software, hence if something works on one distribution, it can run on the rest of them. Some distributions automatically take care of it, however, and others do not. Whether or not the end user should be responsible for configuring his system manually is another matter entirely. In any case, your claim is just plain wrong.

      because the config is so moronic that it will let you do things that render your computer completely impossible to use without a warning

      Why, specifically, should Linux be on trial for the mistakes of the user? Where did Linux claim itself to be responsible for the actions of it's users? What part of "use at your own risk" do you not get? What makes you think you cannot destroy a Windows setup with equal ease? Hint: you can. The "safeguards" are a paper-thin veneer.

      (case in point: I set up dual monitors, but the GUI config utility didn't have any option to set the layout, i.e. 2nd monitor left of 1st monitor or the opposite, and so when I rebooted the main screen was shifted over to the right outside of the display area of the rightmost monitor, which meant I had no display; spending 3 hours online with a Linux support guy didn't manage to get dual monitors to work by hand-editing the X config file, even though the OS recognized both cards and both monitors by name; the OS thought that monitor 1 was hooked up to video card 2 and vice versa; etc).

      I am not going to apologize for you not knowing how to set up your system properly. Distributions that claim to be as easy to use as Windows have a responsibility to make such matters work "seamlessly," but just because they make mistakes today doesn't mean that they will never be able to fix them.

      In other words, because Linux is more like a 1952 Chevy truck than a 2003 BMW (or even a 1996 Toyota Corolla),

      Doesn't seem that way to me.

      in spite of what those BILL GATE$ I$ EVUL LINUX RULE$ morons will have you believe.

      What about those WINDOW$ RULEZ LINUX SUCK$ morons?

      In 1998, I heard "give Linux a couple of years to catch up and it will solve all your problems". It's almost 2004 and Linux is still crap, a glorified beta that inept geeks will try to have you believe is the best thing since slice bread. Sheesh.

      Something tells me you haven't tried it recently. If you think that Linux has not made progress since 1998, then you are either a) completely unknowledgable, or b) a complete and utter moron.

      Please tell me you're just misinformed.

      Linux is not a product. It's a process. And it works.

      --
      Slashdot: Where people pretend to be twice as smart as they really are by behaving like children.
  10. My thoughts... by danielrm26 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    # Which Linux application area do you believe will grow the fastest in 2004?

    If not strictly meaning desktop applications, I'd say overall infrastructure. Web servers, mail servers, etc. And this will take place mostly in governments that can't afford MS licensing (it's already happening).

    # Will 2004 *finally* be the year when Linux makes significant in-roads on the desktop?

    No. The new X movements are just now gaining momentum, and it will take quite a while before it starts really biting into MS marketshare. I'd say 2006 maybe, like a previous poster. And that's *if* things go well.

    # Which distributions will show the greatest growth in 2004?

    I'd say Fedora (corporate), Knoppix (safety of cd distro), and Gentoo (great distro, great community).

    # Will the SCO debacle slow Linux adoption over the next year?

    No. I think it will die soon. It is just a matter of time before the whole thing is brought before a judge who is able to sort through the SCO lawyer crap, and when that happens, they'll throw the whole thing out.

    # Will Tux finally get a girlfriend?

    Yes. The hottie in Matrix 3. (he can have anyone)

    # Or, make your own question(s) up...

    Q: What is the single most annoying thing about the Linux community?
    A: Irrational trash-talking about Microsoft. There are plenty of *rational* ways to criticize them, and people should stick to those arguments rather than ranting on and on about the same old tired issues. At some point the Bill Gates and Blue Screen jokes just lose their luster.

    --
    dmiessler.com -- grep understanding knowledge
    1. Re:My thoughts... by zurab · · Score: 4, Insightful
      Q: What is the single most annoying thing about the Linux community?
      A: Irrational trash-talking about Microsoft. There are plenty of *rational* ways to criticize them, and people should stick to those arguments rather than ranting on and on about the same old tired issues. At some point the Bill Gates and Blue Screen jokes just lose their luster.


      Interesting post up to that point. The main reason being that you can't view community as a single entity. The Linux "community" you are speaking of includes millions of Linux users worldwide. You can't judge everyone under one "community" umbrella. Obviously, by the virtue of the size of the "community", if you listen, you will hear almost all kinds of opinions - some of which you agree with, some of which you may view as disappointing or even annoying and irrational. And, in my opinion, that should be expected. What would you have otherwise? That everyone had a single voice? Only one type of opinion on everything? That's not only unrealistic, it's outright bad.

      The growth of Linux users will only result in more diversity in what you refer as "community", and that's a good thing (tm). Sure, some attitudes are annoying, some opinions stupid, others are clever and reasonable; yet others flaming everyone else in sight. It's exactly the same as in every other "community" of sufficient size, Mac, Linux, Windows, or anything else.
  11. top ten by geekoid · · Score: 5, Funny

    10) certen people will still froth at the mouth if you don't stamp GNU in front of it

    9) people still won't spell well on slashdot

    8) Bill Gates will spread FUD

    7) A slashdot poster will get sued by David Lettermen for top ten copyright violation

    6) Microsoft will announce that Linus T. uses windows. This will be true, except they will fail to add "to look out of."

    5) SCO will disappear.

    4) A major exploit will be discover in Linux.

    3) Apple will stop supporting anything they released in 2003.

    2) DOOM III will be released for Linux.

    and the number one thing that will effect the linux world: You.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  12. Thanks Michael by EmCeeHawking · · Score: 4, Funny

    I was really starting to miss your witty editorial commentary.

    I think I speak for everyone here when I say "welcome back!"

  13. Not him again! by benna · · Score: 5, Insightful

    While ESR seems to be very zealous and into the (GNU)/Linux scene, he's it's worst enemy. While Microsoft may spread FUD, people look at this guy and "wtf is this idiot doing? what's he talking about?" if i didn't know better, i'd avoid linux for the sole reason i wouldn't want to be associated with that nut.

    --
    "It is not how things are in the world that is mystical, but that it exists." -Ludwig Wittgenstein
    1. Re:Not him again! by Feztaa · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Have you ever read the Cathedral and the Bazaar? ESR is brilliant, he perfectly describes how and why the Open Source development model WORKS!

      It's RMS that's going to repell people from the community; his uncompromising principles really turn off people who don't understand why Freedom in software is important.

      Hell, ESR is one of the people who coined the term "Open Source", and as a result he's been bringing more people INTO the community (ie, people who were previously repelled by RMS's obnoxious ethics are now drawn in by ESR's pragmatism).

  14. Never happen until... by ratpick · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Openoffice file conversions from MS Office work better. Yeah, they work pretty well now, good enough for probably 99% of files/users, but that small portion left creates a lot of headaches. Like it or not (I certainly don't) MS Office is the standard, and office app file compatibility is an absolute requirement for widespread adoption of Linux OTD.

    1. Re:Never happen until... by Micah · · Score: 4, Insightful

      No, the answer is education and, in the meantime, PDF for preserving formatting.

      We need to educate people of the value of open standards for file formats. Fortunately, this is starting to happen. Sitting back and saying "Microsoft's proprietary bloated file formats are standard and will always be" is suicide. There's nothing about them that is superior to the OOo formats.

      Keep advocating and give it time. Interest in OOo keeps increasing. As more governments consider its use, more individuals and corporations will also need to try it.

      But until that happens, send PDF files. They usually work better than going from one version of Word to another anyway.

  15. Success on the desktop by marderj · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Unfortunately, I think that all this SCO garbage is going to have an impact in the data center. I don't think very many CIO's are going to be jumping to adopt Linux. Even though it's all a bunch of bullshit it's still a risky move until all this blows over. No one wants to become a target for some sue-happy company that can't compete in the current market if it can be avoided. No flames please. Just imagine a CIO pitches Linux as a huge money saver. Then by some insane turn of events SCO wins and charges $699 a cpu. That cost-saving move ends up costing 3 times as much as before. It's a risk not everyone is eager to take. I may be wrong, but I just don't see Linux having huge success in the server market as long as SCO is still spouting off. In the long run I don't think this will have much of an effect on anything. Linux has made its mark and once things clear up I think many CIO's will consider it a very attractive option. On the other hand Linux has a huge opportunity on the desktop right now. The mainstream distributions are becoming more useable with every release. All the security nonsense with Microsoft can only help Linux as well. It seems like Windows never gets good press anymore and I'm not just talking about techie publications either. Every time there's a new worm it's on the front page of CNN. After people read enough of that they start to think maybe it's time to a less susceptible platform. Just my 2 cents.

  16. What I want in 2004 . . . by EmCeeHawking · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I think there needs to be more unification and simplification over the way things are installed in , not only Linux, but the BSDs as well.

    I think everyone agrees that rpms suck. Most of the good code comes in source tarballs - configurable for any *nix... but this is where the user experience falls apart. What person is going to want to dig out the command line to compile source code, and will he or she know about all the ocnfigure options... and then, will there be dependency issues (or should the source contain the dependencies too?). Then there are the legal issues of bundling dependancies... and then there will be future commercial Linux apps which won't want to include source code.

    In an ideal world, packaged installs will be a compressed single file, containing all source code, configurable on any *nix like normal source code EXCEPT that now there's a graphical interface so that setting compile options, creating desktop shortcuts, and "Make clean, make install, make uninstall" now all work under X with a point-and-click.

    PLEASE! Will someone serious about standardizing Linux installs do something about this... or desktop Linux will never take off.

    1. Re:What I want in 2004 . . . by ajs318 · · Score: 2, Interesting
      This is why I like Slackware's simple packaging system. But I am no longer a newbie.

      RPMs are dire, unless they are the common ones included in the distro. On my Mandrake box, I seriously prefer tar.gz packages because they are just more reliable.

      The problem is maintaining an accurate database of what depends on what. Debian have rigorous testing procedures, they test everything so many times that it get out-of-date.

      Two ways out of it:
      1. sell CD-ROMs containing collections of packages proven to work when installed on anything with a kernel, because every dependency would already be meetable from the CD contents.
      2. set up an online package base which automatically reports any installation difficulties to a forum where other users can offer suggestions, and once a solution is found, update the dependencies for that package for the benefit of the next person.
      Option 1 has the disadvantage that you have to sell many copies of the CD to break even out of it, because you have to sell it cheaply enough that people will buy it from you rather than anyone else. Option 2 has the disadvantage that if it's reporting users' config info, it looks a bit like spyware {but from the practical standpoint, you can't just go to the vet and say "my dog is poorly", not take the dog with you, not describe its symptoms, and still expect a cure. But if you s/dog/PC/ and s/vet/phone support/ it's a different matter in most people's eyes}.
      --
      Je fume. Tu fumes. Nous fûmes!
  17. Re:Howto's.. by Trepalium · · Score: 2, Informative

    Howtos will likely remain forever... I'd be fairly happy to see the howtos for rather mundane things go away or at least lose some of their utility. Today, things like the CDROM HOWTO, Ethernet HOWTO and ISP-Connectivity HOWTO are unnessesary for most people. Other things like the ADSL HOWTO, CD Writing HOWTO and DVD HOWTO are still nessesary evils.

    --
    I used up all my sick days, so I'm calling in dead.
  18. Moving that way by ImTwoSlick · · Score: 5, Interesting
    I work at a USGS mapping center, and about 75% of us programmers use Linux almost exclusively. The IT department also has quite a few linux servers running too.

    The real influx of Linux is due to the hiring of university students. Push Linux in the schools, and it'll end up in businesses and the gov.

  19. Does Germany Count? by cookie_cutter · · Score: 4, Informative
    Maybe even a first world national government promoting it in some way.

    Like, say, Germany?

  20. it still isnt gonna go mainstream by Adler · · Score: 4, Insightful

    im sooooo gonna get modded to hell for this but, the #1 reason linux sin't going mainstream anytime soon is the community. its greatest strength is also its greatest weakness.

    its been said before, and i'll say it again, until my mom and dad can run linux without calling me every day, and they can just install something or simply copy and paste from one app in X to another, linux is just gonna stay a hobbist/server OS.

    sorry to say it, but its true, dont give me the "its more stable, its more secure" stuff, you're preaching to the choir here, especiallly at slashdot.

    Linux isn't going anywhere for awhile, im sorry, you just have to deal with it.

    --

    Everybody denies I am a genius--but nobody ever called me one!

  21. Re:My God... by monadicIO · · Score: 2, Funny

    he business world is absolutely full of Linux on the desktop but it's the worlds best kept fucking secret.
    I was hoping that thw world's best kept fucking secret would be something that involved sex. Perhaps in 2004 it will.

    --

    The law of excluded middle : Either I'm foo or I'm foobar

  22. US Gov't Agency Linux Desktops? by DynaSoar · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Terpstra says 'I predict that during 2004 at least one significant USA government body will adopt Linux on the desktop.'

    Not with Homeland Security showing how absolutely retarded they insist on being and going with WinXX. This is clearly not a security based decision, and any "significant" attempt to go counter to it will bring the HLS pseudo-spooks down by the thousands to protect their investments ^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H The Nation.

    michael sez: 'Depending on how you define "significant", this has already occurred.'

    Pray tell, what agency might that be? In my years inside the beltway (up through less than 2 months ago) I didn't see any with any appreciable (let's define that as, say 5%) Linux desktops on desks. All I've seen, besides individuals setting up their own for number crunching, is piles and miles of MS systems "supported" by clue-deficient federal employess constantly in fear of replacement by contractors for extremely good reasons. Even NIH was mostly MS on the desks, and what wasn't was Macs. The necessarily more powerful research machines we used were often *nix, but these were not desktop machines.

    Offering a secured version of Linux for D/L is not the same as an agency's internal deployment of same.

    --
    "I may be synthetic, but I'm not stupid." -- Bishop 341-B
  23. Two things that need to happen in 2004 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    First, the linux installer must be as easy as windows. Looking at the beginnings of the new Debian Installer, that is a definite possibility. They have the autodetection and the automation down. With a spiffy interface and maybe Synaptic in the installer that's about as easy as it gets.

    Second the linux desktop has to surpass Windows XP in usability. They have the time to get this done. Longhorn is a long way off. Personally it would be nice to see some INNOVATIVE navigation ideas thrown around in the mainstream such as unified hotkey standards, radial pie menu in the window manager, and/or mouse gestures for launching commonly used applications (gesture down to open web browser, up for email) and common commands (down+left for copy, up+left for paste, for example). Maybe even mousewheel based window navigation instead of alt+tab.

    Granted these things can be done now but not without some footwork. These need to be integrated into a "desktop" linux distribution like Lindows, Lycoris, or XandrOS. Somebody just needs to put them together.

    Frequent tasks should require less keystrokes or mouse movement to accomplish. It isn't enough for it to be intuitive on where you should start to look for the document that tells you which clock does what. Less applications. Faster access and faster results.

    1. Re:Two things that need to happen in 2004 by October_30th · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Personally it would be nice to see some INNOVATIVE navigation ideas

      Unfortunately there's very little you can innovate with unless you're the one dominating the desktop markets.

      A novel navigation idea in Windows: People get annoyed but get over it because they have to.

      A novel navigation idea in Linux: People get annoyed ("it doesn't work the same way I'm used to") and give up.

      --
      The owls are not what they seem
    2. Re:Two things that need to happen in 2004 by rsilvergun · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Um, why does the installer need to be easy? Most people get there computers from an OEM (Dell, Gateway, etc), who'll just include a restore disk anyways. There's this notion Linux will gain lots of market share with a grass roots campaign of installs on old Windows hardware. I don't see that happening (hasn't worked with Mozilla, and that's a much easier switch). On the other hand, MS is gonna burn a lot of bridges with Longhorn, and the OEMs might finally start looking for alternatives.

      As for usability, Microsoft built it's market share on 'good enough', no reason Linux shouldn't. Of course since Linux doesn't have to worry about the tech support nightmare of supporting all those innovative features there's no reason they can't be available. I just don't think it'd be a good idea for them to be added to say, Redhat Enterprise.

      I want linux to succeed with the masses, not for the sake of ideals, but because I want to keep using it. I rely on cheap, compatible commodity hardware to run Linux. Microsoft has hinted they want that market to go away now. That worries me. If there are millions of Linux users like me, I won't have to worry. So I say take the pragmatic approach to replacing Microsoft Windows (and let's not kid ourselfs, with 95% market share there's no one else to replace). Give users the familiar MS-Windows copy they want, and I'll keep my KDE desktop skinned to look like MacOSX.

      --
      Hi! I make Firefox Plug-ins. Check 'em out @ https://addons.mozilla.org/en-US/firefox/addon/youtube-mp3-podcaster/
  24. Nah, Education is the Future by Qweezle · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Lower-education will be the short-term future of linux in my opinion. It's already hit the corporate server level, the governmental level, the ranks of high education, now what?

    I've suggested to our [poor] school district that we should switch to Linux, using the old hardware we have, and they liked they idea but said it would be "too hard to implement". Oh, come now. I think that any kid could easily circumnavigate a Linux interface, especially if it is an easy one, like Mandrake 9.x or Lycoris! I sure would want my kids to learn Linux, and this is a cheap(free, actually) solution for those school districts that just can't seem to raise any money. In addition, get a good IT guy at the helm, fire all the low-waged IT guys who don't know what they're doing, and get that network running smoother than ever with Linux!

    It's a SHOCK to me that school districts haven't at least started putting in an "Operating Systems 101" class in high school for everyone to learn about alternative OS's. Linux, Macintosh OS, Solaris, FreeBSD, UNIX, just imagine how much that would open up the minds of those kids!

    1. Re:Nah, Education is the Future by binary+paladin · · Score: 5, Informative

      You state using "NT 4.0" for those situations. Well... using the latest KDE or GNOME is hardly a fair comparison. They're in the ring with XP, not NT 4.0.

      XFce runs GREAT on older hardware without sacrificing a lot of nice bits of modern stuff (anti-aliased fonts, gtk2, etc). I just dropped Vector Linux on an old Celeron 366 with 64 megs (it's an old HP) and added XFce4 and it works like a charm.

  25. In 2004 when I say... by compass46 · · Score: 5, Funny

    I have FreeBSD instead, less people will think it's a nasty venereal disease.

  26. The Desktop Is Not Important Right Now by nate+nice · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Why are people so concerned with Linux on the desktop? Linux advocates should be spending all resources on making sure Linux keeps and expands it's adoption with the server. The desktop war is one that is long and hard and really Linux is not in a place right now where it can seriously compete with desktop offerings such as Windows or Mac OS X. What Linux does have going for it however is its fabulous server abilities. However great these abilities are, it cannot be overlooked Microsoft will keep spending more and more money to market their server options. Linux doesn't need some "validation" by being used as a desktop. Linux needs to keep improving as a server to make sure it stays superior to other server options. In time, the desktop may come. Until then, at least at this point, it is not something that is not too important. I only hope Linux keeps its focus and plays to its strengths.

    --
    "If you are a dreamer, a wisher, a liar, A hope-er, a pray-er, a magic bean buyer ..."
    1. Re:The Desktop Is Not Important Right Now by Micah · · Score: 2, Insightful
      There are a lot of reasons to support Linux on the desktop.

      • Moral reasons -- for those who think all software must be Free, period
      • Lower cost computers for everyone! (Also think schools and governments ... lower taxes!)
      • You believe Microsoft has too much power over the computer industry. In this case, a competitor needs to attack it on all fronts.
      • You prefer the UNIX way of doing things
      • Competition would be possible between consumer-oriented distributors. Currently, Microsoft competes with no one. When Linux is common on the desktop, there should be fierce competition which will help everyone get a better system.
      • No stupid e-mail viruses. Security is much easier in a proper UNIX environment.
      • Level playing field for application developers. No more will folks like WordPerfect have to compete with Microsoft, where Microsoft knows a lot more about the OS than WordPerfect does.
      • As more people use Linux on the desktop, those of us who have decided to use it no matter what will find more application software for sale and more hardware supported.
    2. Re:The Desktop Is Not Important Right Now by fzammett · · Score: 2, Interesting

      You've just effectively illustrated why it's unlikely Linux will EVER dethrone Windows on the desktop (yes, I said it!)... To use a basketball analogy...

      If I have Larry Bird's championship Celtics teams on one side, and on the other I request anyone that wants to play show up... Even if Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Jason Kidd, Karl Malone and Tray McGrady show up, chances are that Bird's team is going to win because they are the well-organized, focused and experienced TEAM. They know how to work together effectively and they have leadership who are focusing them on one or two definitive goals. The pick-up team has the better talent almost everyone would agree, and they all love to play, but if your not focused and a real team, your not going to win.

      What Linux needs to have a chance is one or two guys that can rally the troops and drive the desktop effort in a huge way. The community needs to focus on Microsoft 100% to dethrone them. Hoping that someone talented enough comes along that can write pieces to compete with Windows XP isn't going to work. Someone needs to find those people, motivate them and get the most of their talents. Microsoft does this day in and day out. That's why they are on top as far as the desktop goes, and why they will almost certainly remain there for many years to come.

      --
      If a pion (n-) collides with a proton in the woods & noone is there to hear it, does lamdba decay into the source pa
    3. Re:The Desktop Is Not Important Right Now by Jason+Earl · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Of course, in real life there isn't an arbitrary 5 man limit to your team. The championship Celtics were good, but they couldn't take on the best of the NBA greats all at the same time. Heck, they couldn't even compete with high school players if the opposing team had 500 guys on the court at the same time.

      Microsoft has gotten to the point where they are competing with a huge percentage of their Windows developers. What's worse, if you come up with software that works well on Windows and starts making you a profit there is a good chance that Microsoft will copy your functionality and drive you out of business. This is why the commercial software industry is shifting towards Linux, that's the only way that they could possibly compete in the long run.

      No matter how many sharp people Microsoft has working for them, if they turn this into a Microsoft-against-the-world battle they will lose.

      Linux will win the desktop war in the same way that it is winning the server war. The key is to offer a product that is "good enough" at a lower price. Linux doesn't have to be better than Windows, it simply has to be "good enough."

  27. Always "a couple years away" by Micah · · Score: 5, Interesting

    It seems like Linux on the desktop for the masses is always a couple years away.

    In 1998, I was swearing up and down that by the beginning of 2000, some major PC manufacturer would be selling Linux-preloaded systems branded for comsumers in places like CompUSA. That obviously didn't happen.

    For most of the last four years, I've been predicting that by the beginning of 2005, most people would be using open source operating systems (keeping in mind that that could be Windows, if Microsoft caught a clue in time). Doesn't look like that's going to happen.

    Now it's looking to me like the first half of 2006 is when Linux use on the consumer desktop will move from the "early adopter" to the "early majority" phase. I say this because:

    * It's virtually guaranteed that we'll have several more major deployments in 2004 and 2005. These might be specialized applications instead of general desktop, but that will help create demand for more general applications.

    * If you read the "Roadmap to desktop Linux" posted earlier today, it's clear that several very cool and useful features will be coming to the Free desktop in the next couple years.

    * OpenOffice.org 2.0 should be released in the first half of 2005, and it is planned to make development of add-ons much easier. This will hopefully help get more office-oriented vertical applications ported to OOo.

    When all this happens over the next couple years, I believe desktop Linux will turn from a stream to an avalanche.

    But still, we need consumer pre-loads with all hardware configured to work out of the box, and marketed well. Few people are going to buy a Windows-infested PC, then choose to replace Windows with Linux. This is probably the most iffy condition, but I think it will happen. Most PC manufacturers would do anything to break away from MSFT.

    1. Re:Always "a couple years away" by kris · · Score: 4, Interesting

      It seems like Linux on the desktop for the masses is always a couple years away.

      Depends on who you are looking at. For me and about 2/3 of my colleagues, Linux on the desktop has already happened several years ago. I, being a consultant, am running Suse Linux on my laptop, on my business desktop, and on all machines at home.

      I own a copy of VMware, but reviewing my usage of it, I only use it with Win98 to program my PBX at home, and most of the time with Linux to simulate certain customer configurations and experiment with RAID and cluster setups. All office work, including text processing, presentation and calculation is being done on Linux natively, as is web browsing, other internet work, and of couse all security work.

      Kristian

    2. Re:Always "a couple years away" by hacker · · Score: 2, Insightful
      "It seems like Linux on the desktop for the masses is always a couple years away."

      A famous quote comes to mind:

      "When victory is inevitable, don't complain that it doesn't arrive fast enough."
  28. personally, i hope they can look at Desktop Linux by sQuEeDeN · · Score: 2

    I guess my one hope for this year is that end-user linux improves. I personally have two boxen operating right now, one linux, one windows. The windows one does exactly what I want, desktop related. It happens to be aggravating to deal with server-wise, which is what my linux box does. For example. I click and, three seconds (at most) later, mozilla comes up and I browse stuff. Yay.
    For linux, I wait about 10 seconds at a minimum. I understand there is a 800mhz difference between the two processors, but this is just absurd. No, mozilla does not pre-load on either.

    My sincere hope is that scheduling advances in the 2.6 kernel series will provide a much more usable interface. Java runs sooo much better on windows than it does on linux, and this is something that matters to me. I shouldn't have to renice -2 java so eclipse can have a decent reaction time.

    other than that, the only way to go is up. let's hear it for all those developers who are trying to do the things I mentioned, and about a bajillion other things. Hats off to ya'.

    --

    Recursive (adj.): see 'Recursive'
  29. This is the year that Open Source will FINALLY by RLiegh · · Score: 4, Funny

    be made illegal for all intents and purposes. NO ONE in thier right mind can believe that the republicans in power would let the 3rd world get away with becoming independent of american interests [trans: "get away with not putting money in american pockets."]

    With the DMCA, etc in place, and the current state of soft-ware patents in europe, I think it's safe to say that in 2005, the only ones who'll be left using GNU software will be outlaws.

  30. The Future Fair... by jefu · · Score: 5, Informative
    I don't know what will happen in linux, but here are some of the things I'd like to see...

    Out of nowhere will come the killer office app that integrates word processing, spreadsheets and databases so they really interoperate nicely. (Think Improv, Access, and some quasi-wysiwyg word processor that works on xml schemas all bred together by a Christopher Lloyd as Dr. Brown and then make "easy" enough for the masses. Maybe even constraint propagation as the spreadsheet engine.)

    A personal information manager will surface that enables us all to keep track of mail, favorite websites, IM buddylists, newsgroups and all that ephemeral, necessary information that clogs our bits and our neurons. (Ideally it will integrate with the above.)

    Linux will finally have a sound system that works and without it being a pain to deal with.

    A way to build and install kernels and modules that requires less than serious geekery to get to work.

    Package management will mature enough that we wont have to chase dependencies manually, and so that packages will install cleanly.

    A good dictation package.

    A linux based PDA about the size of a paperback with handwriting recognition and (of course) all of the above.

    Hey, I can dream, can't I?

    1. Re:The Future Fair... by binary+paladin · · Score: 2, Interesting

      "Linux will finally have a sound system that works and without it being a pain to deal with."

      Kernel 2.6 has ALSA built in and with auto module loading it is really nice (well, nicer than it is without auto loading... which is still nice).

      I really think that 2.6 is going to do a lot of good for the world of Linux. I've been running the betas and am VERY impressed with the responsiveness of my machine as compared to 2.4 and it's rock solid too.

      It'll be nice when my distro runs it stock and the newer driver models are conformed to. When 2.6 is mainstream I think we're going to see a lot of good things for the Linux world all around.

  31. Linux in 2004 by fr0dicus · · Score: 3, Funny
    Linux will get an opengl rendered desktop, most window managers will default to a brushed metal look, fast user switching will be implemented (looking much like a big spinning cube). Some sort of special hotkeys will allow the user to see and cycle through their windows graphically.

    Oh no wait - Windows has to do all this first.

  32. Re:Gentoo, Portage, Python by GreyWolf3000 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    2004 will be a year when many corporations, especially those who will try to adapt Linux as a primary desktop platform, will recognize Gentoo for several reasons:

    Please, explain to me why.

    * Portage gives a corporate IT the most fine-grained dependency control protecting the consistency of installations within upgrades;

    I don't agree with this one. Corporations that "roll their own" packages have the same advantage. Movifying SRPMS can acheive the same effect.

    * Gentoo makes possible to compile everything from sources on a reference hardware, adapting by that to the last bit of any available performance optimization, and then distribute the compiled binares to compatible hardware cross the enterprise (using GRP for fresh installations and just shared /usr/portage/packages for already installed systems);

    Normally I would respond to this one saying that most people who use CFLAGS to optimize binaries actually hurt themselves, but corporations would have people that actually know how to use them best (i.e. -Os over -O3 or even -O2). However, I don't think that this is really an issue for corporations.

    * Gentoo (mostly thanks to Portage) represents really the next generation design of Linux distro;

    How so, specifically? There is something to be said for having a dedicated box to building binaries for the whole infrastructure, but the idea that Gentoo can do this and no other distro can is rather ignorant.

    Gentoo is a really cool distribution (no joke), but I fail to see any technical advantages it has over other distributions. It's real strengths are in how it brings a lot of advanced administration techniques down to the level of an intermediate-level user. Plus the forums are cool, and portage is really well maintained.

    Trust me on this one, though, there's no actual technical superiority over other distributions.

    By the way, can you do reverse dependency checking yet? Like uninstalling gtk, and having every app that builds against gtk also unistall? I'm not "knocking" it if it can't (this isn't too important to corporations anyways), I'm just curious.

    --
    Slashdot: Where people pretend to be twice as smart as they really are by behaving like children.
  33. Mod parent up.... by Slashamatic · · Score: 3, Insightful
    That is why MS will do almost anything to get into the education amrket and to lock other systems out. An example is the flat rate license - you have paid for as much microsoft software as you want so why 'waste' money on other software.

    Create a pool of Linux trained students, and they won't need 'conversion' to handle it in their workplace.

  34. RPM sucks? by Kashif+Shaikh · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "I think everyone agrees that rpms suck."

    Really? Who? Have you looked at the feature-list for RPMs? It has a *LOT* of good features that makes it a joy for packaging software programs. It's very well defined and easy to write spec file format(yes its nit-picky -- but that's good), package signing, package integrity checking(i.e. missing files), package querying, dependent lib checking, SRPMS format, idea of prestine sources, package roll-back(very cool), etc.

    What sucks about RPMs is that rpm *installation* utilities are stupid. RPM was designed by Redhat as a format to install/upgrade distro-packages - so all dependencies would already be satisfied. Meaning you have to explicitly provide all dependent RPMs during installation. This is the part that sucks. The higher-level utilities are not smart enough to satisfy dependencies by themselves, and we experience dependency hell.

    Using a tool like apt will solve this problem, but it doesn't know if a particular RPM is 'pure' or has been 'tainted'. A 'pure' RPM only uses libs/packages provided by the distro-vendor, while a 'tainted' RPM contains custom "external" dependencies. In the latter case, apt will not be able to figure out dependent RPMs without the user providing an additional repository. However 'tainted' RPMs are the fault of the packager - and it's the packager's responsibility for dependency checking -- not RPM.

    Finally, many rpms cannot work interchangibly on different distros(i.e. SuSE and Redhat) or even across multiple vendor versions(i.e. RH9.0 rpm --> RH7.2). Who's fault is this: packager and rpmbuild for making package building too damn easy.

  35. My hopes for 2004 - some realisation please by DrXym · · Score: 4, Insightful
    I believe (or rather hope) that someone will cop on during 2004 and we will see movement on the following.
    • A desktop offering hardware acceleration, scaling, blending, composition effects. There are promising extensions for X for this and they should be leapt on. But if means ditching X / a WM then so be it - QT / GTK are meant to be abstraction layers after all and X can run rootless on top of whatever-it-is if need be.
    • A desktop where KDE / GNOME / dist homegrown tools are blended into a single cohesive entity. Not one with a generic KDE / GNOME slapped together with some weird tools (i.e. Mandrake). The desktop will be referred to as "the desktop" in all dialogs / apps and not KDE / GNOME / Drak / Yast etc. except in advanced documentation.
    • A unified help system - one that offers one stop access to all man pages, info, html, READMEs, GNOME / KDE / dist help, all ordered in a task centric way with full search facilities.
    • A desktop that offers to install additional apps (especially DVD, MP3 player etc.) in a user friendly manner click N run style during installation and at any time after. Even if there are legal reasons for not shipping MP3 on the CDs for example, the dist could still make it easy to find them remotely.
    • A unified distribution neutral driver model with detection, installation / removal architecture. The situation at the moment with getting a driver (or the hell of writing and supporting one) on Linux is a joke. Even a popular driver like NVidia involves screwing around at the command prompt and having a toolchain and kernel source if your dist is not directly supported.
    • A unified theme engine. A single engine that any app, toolkit or WM can use to render buttons and decorations.
    • Identification of every day operations and a UI to support them completely with no overlapping functionality. There should be no need for mere mortals to drop to the shell. Not even once. If OS X users can control a BSD derivative with a (single button) mouse then so can Linux. It doesn't mean Linux must be 'dumbed down', just that needless complication should be identified and removed / hidden from those who don't want to see it.
    And most importantly:
    • A realisation that Longhorn is coming and unless people pull their fingers out of their arses and address these shortcomings now Linux is going to look like a relic. It struggles enough to even compete with XP and that in no small part is due to lacklustre enthusiasm most Linux users have for the problem. Linux will never replace Windows on it desktop with the RTFM attitude so leave it at the door.
    1. Re:My hopes for 2004 - some realisation please by hacker · · Score: 2, Insightful
      "Linux will never replace Windows on it desktop with the RTFM attitude so leave it at the door."

      Perhaps that is because for most of us, the goal isn't to replace Windows with Linux. It is to replace "legacy" Unix with Linux. Microsoft isn't even on the radar for 90% or more of the people actually developing and providing the Linux kernel, tools and other applications.

  36. Re:Gentoo, Portage, Python by binary+paladin · · Score: 4, Insightful

    *rolls eyes*

    No WONDER everyone seems to have this thing against Gentoo users. I think a lot of us get too caught up in our own distribution's "superiority" without remembering that the cool part of multiple distributions appeal to certain people. However tons of people seem to wish their particular distro will catch on and take the mainstream.

    Frankly, as a Gentoo user, I don't ever want it to "take over" (and being source based I don't think it will). I like its niche and I like its community. Mass usage is going to kill that.

    I don't think Gentoo is ever going to appeal to "big" corps or businesses. Small shops perhaps (I use it for all my operations) but the big guys? Nope. Corporations like dealing with corporations, it's that simple.

  37. Re:Whores by mean+pun · · Score: 2, Funny

    Ooooh, that's a tough one. I must choose between a government that wants to provide good health care, medicine and social welfare, and one that wants to provide for the corporations with the largest bribing^Wlobbying budget. Yeah, real tough choice. Give me a second here, will you?

  38. Re:Gentoo, Portage, Python by axxackall · · Score: 2
    Movifying SRPMS can acheive the same effect.

    And coding on assembly language (instead of a high-level one) can be used for developing applications too. Portage helps and protects in a similar way as a garbage collector. We use Portage in our company and we know it already.

    However, I don't think that this is really an issue for corporations.

    You did not work in the corp with hundreds of newest (P4), hundreds of older (P3) and still dozens of the oldest (P-II) PCs.

    the idea that Gentoo can do this and no other distro can is rather ignorant.

    The practice shows that with Gentoo IT personell spends less time and IT's bugzilla has less issues.

    Trust me on this one, though, there's no actual technical superiority over other distributions.

    I fail to see why I should trust you. You certainly don't have any experience of deplying Gentoo to the big (or even mid) size corporation.

    can you do reverse dependency checking yet? Like uninstalling gtk, and having every app that builds against gtk also unistall?

    Just did it with KDE and Qt. You may want to check Gentoo forums for appropriate scripts.

    By the way, Gentoo community is not fanatic, as many try to represent here. It's very friendly. The chance to hear RTFM is more on Debian forums.

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    Less is more !
  39. Beg to differ, my own predictions: by Florian · · Score: 5, Insightful
    • Which Linux application area do you believe will grow the fastest in 2004?

      Conventional, but probably true answer: servers. There are still many companies running standard services like mail, web etc. on proprietary operating systems (Sun, Microsoft) in a time where it makes no whatsoever sense anymore. With kernel 2.6, Linux will gain acceptance as a high-end Unix replacement and be deployed wherever older server installations need to be replaced.

    • Will 2004 *finally* be the year when Linux makes significant in-roads on the desktop?

      No. The desktop UI is still too inconsistent across KDE/Qt, Gnome/GTK, Mozilla/XUL and Openoffice and still offers no viable alternative to the commandline when it comes to system administration/configuration.

      I predict that in 2004, attention will move away from KDE and Gnome as all-in-one-solutions. Instead, it will be finally accepted as reality among developers and users that different GUI APIs will continue to coexist, and that efforts should be made to standardize the protocols and user interfaces across the APIs. For the future of GNU/Linux and *BSD on the desktop, freedesktop.org will be much more important than kde.org and gnome.org, but it could take five-ten years until the difference between a KDE/Qt, GTK/Gnome, Tcl/Tk, Fltk program will be as irrelevant to users as the difference between a Carbon and a Cocoa app on MacOS X or as that between a Microsoft MFC program written in C++ or an OWL-based program written in Borland Delphi for a Windows user.

      Once this level of standardization is reached, the importance of all-in-one desktops like KDE and Gnome could dramatically decrease, since users instead could combine components like taskbars, window managers, file managers and system menus at will. (Which, thanks to freedesktop.org, is already possible: fspanel / fbpanel / suxpanel / the xfce4 panel can be used as drop-in replacements for the Gnome panel, rox / xffm4 as drop-in replacements for Nautlius, and the list of freedesktop.org-compliant window managers suitable as replacements of metacity / kwin is endless.)

      However, it will take yet another five years until 2013 or 2014 that a standardized Unix/GNU/Linux/BSD desktop will allow developers of system components (like sendmail/exim/Postfix/qmail, lpr/cups, Samba, Grub/Lilo...) to write GUI configuration panels for their own software. At the moment, desktop projects like KDE, Gnome/Ximian and Webmin can only provide insufficient configuration wrappers around low-level system tool; the only sane solution is that such GUI configuration panels are provided by the original component developers in sync with their release schedules, and will work consistently on any GUI configuration (as opposed to the present situation where a configuration panel would have to be provided in separate versions for KDE, Gnome, XFCE, webmin and what-have-you). Only at this point, GNU/Linux will be able to replace commercial end-user GUI operating systems on a large scale and be accessible to home users.

    • Which distributions will show the greatest growth in 2004?

      Contrary to what Eric S. Raymond says: The unclear situations of RedHat/Fedora and SuSE (after it has been bought by Novell) could create a strong push towards Debian as the standard binary (GNU/)Linux distribution. The Debian core distribution could become a de-facto-replacement of the disappointing "Linux Standards Base (LSB)", as more and more (commercial and community) distributions will be based Debian. Knoppix, Lindows and, in the near future, User Linux are prime examples. Debian itself will gain more acceptance in the mainstream and among new users as soon as it will ship with the new installer.

      Given the record of Netscape/Mozilla's, StarOffice/OpenOffice's and Apple Darwin's transformation of corporate into public development projects, I doubt that RedHat/Fedora will ever become a true community project. It is also being overlooked that the equation RedHat=Linux is specific to the U.S. only

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    gopher://cramer.plaintext.cc http://cramer.plaintext.cc:70
  40. Re:Howto's.. by koekepeer · · Score: 2, Insightful

    i don't think it's a good idea to take out HOWTO's that are not considered neccesary for *most* people.

    maybe things will autoconfigure in the (near) future, but for example the ethernet HOWTO you mention was very instrumental in getting two nics to work on an old box i transformed into a router for my DSL connection some years ago.

    so they might not be of use to you, but they sure as hell are to thers. and it's not as if they're using up a lot of space as compared to your average modern linux desktop environment...

    i do think some HOWTO's need serious updating...

  41. I predict...some of *you* will start using Linux by Spoing · · Score: 3, Informative
    Right now, some people here are actively using OSS and/or Linux all the time...as the normal and most reasonable choice.

    In 2004, that trend will increase. If you've got a laptop, why not put Linux on it all by itself?

    OK, some of you have your reasons, though making the jump and dealing with the problems (if any) is one way to get the ball rolling. Here are two resources to help out;

    1. Linux On Mobile Computers
    2. Linux on Laptops
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    A firewall can not protect you from yourself. Turn off what you do not need. Do not use the firewall to do your work.
  42. Re:Gentoo, Portage, Python by joib · · Score: 2, Funny


    That's one of differences of Gentoo from other distros: in Gentoo you don't spend weeks of your time for tweaking, you just say what flags to use, and ebauild will decide in a very consistent way where it is appropriate or not.


    No, instead you spend a week defining all those USE flags, then wait two weeks for the stuff to compile, and THEN you spend weeks tweaking.

  43. Government Software for Linux by llouver · · Score: 3, Informative

    Meanwhile, while linux tries to infilitrate the government, the DoD is tyrying to infilitrate the linux. The DoD Defense Information Infrastructure Common Operating Environment is/was an initiative to to define a common software stack to run across multiple platforms that includes software installation, user management, and printing tools. When you talked about putting Linux on the DoD desktop, that used to mean having a DII COE stack for linux. This year DISA released a beta Linux COE kernel and then released the source code for it which can get from anonymous CVS. DISA has paired up with the OpenGroup to define a testable/brandable definition of COE. And there is a project to develop a platform independent COE stack from scratch.

    Relevent URLs:

    http://www.disa.mil/coe/kpc/linuxpc.html

    http://gforge.freestandards.org/projects/qp-coe

    http://www.opengroup.org/openbrand/coe

    http://opencoe.sourceforge.net

  44. Re:Gentoo, Portage, Python by spitzak · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I would think most of the theoretical advantages with compiling packages yourself is not from different -O settings, but because #if statements inside the code may completely eliminate parts of it at compile time. For instance compiling out support for some back-compatability thing you don't have or use may speed up a program, and will certainly make it smaller.

    This is all in theory, however. I am unsure if there is any reason for it. If machines get fast enough that people don't mind a compile as part of install then I see no reason not to distribute source-only. But the only definate advantage is the fact that the thing you download is far more likely to work, I am unsure if there would be performance advantages.

  45. Re:Oh, for God's sake. Stop the elitism. by saskwach · · Score: 2, Insightful
    That claim was pretty well justified. The poster said that mass usage would mess up the community, a feature of gentoo they appreciate. This doesn't seem all that ridiculous to me, since everything gets less personal as it gets bigger. Obviously, as far as technical issues go, mass usage of Gentoo would only increase the developer base and improve the system. However, I have to agree that this is pretty unlikely since the number of person-hours necessary to set up a fully optimised gentoo farm over a binary distro like, say, debian or RH, is going to be significantly larger than the difference in performance for almost all corporations. This is especially true in cases where the corporation is getting new computers every year or two and so there's even less time to recoup the lost time with a little added speed.

    As with everyone before me, I'm not saying Gentoo's bad, just that it is unlikely to catch on in large corporate scenarios.