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Did A Comet Trigger The Great Chicago Fire?

Alien54 writes "Perhaps it was not Mrs. O'Leary's cow kicking over a lantern that sparked the Great Chicago Fire of 1871, which destroyed the downtown area and claimed 300 lives. New research lends credence to an alternative explanation: The fire, along with less-publicized and even more deadly blazes the same night in upstate Wisconsin and Michigan, was the result of a comet fragment crashing into Earth's atmosphere."

69 comments

  1. the flaming snowball theory? by LeninZhiv · · Score: 2, Interesting

    So just how big does a chunk of frozen methane have to be in order to make it all the way to the earth's surface? This is way outside my area of expertise, but I'd have to imagine frozen methane melts pretty darn quick. Apparently comets are bigger than I thought, if a minor broken-off chunk of one can make it all the way down here without melting.

    1. Re:the flaming snowball theory? by DarkkOne · · Score: 1

      Well, a couple things. If it's small when it hits the earth, it was probably pretty big when it hit the atmosphere. A "minor" piece of an astroid is still pretty darn big until it gets to the ground.

    2. Re:the flaming snowball theory? by ChopsMIDI · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The comet split in two around Jupiter and that one of the halves hit earth while the other continued on it's other tragectory.

      The small fragments that could have started the fire probably didn't make it throuh the atmosphere alone, but rather broke off the comet just before collision. Those smaller pieces inigiting fires in Wisconsin and Michigan.

      This would explain how small pieces could make it all the way to the surface.

      According to the article, that night alone, a total space the size of Connecticut was burned. That's a pretty significant chunk of land

      --

      How could I say to men: "Speak louder, shout! For I am deaf!"? -Ludwig van Beethoven
    3. Re:the flaming snowball theory? by pyr0 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The interesting thing about objects that enter the atmosphere is that the rate at which the outer shell ablates away from friction exceeds the rate at which heat conducts through the material. If a chunk of such a comet were to reach the surface without breaking up during the process and land nearby, you could immediately find it see (and touch if you really are up for touching *really* *really* cold stuff) that the object was still frozen.

    4. Re:the flaming snowball theory? by Crudely_Indecent · · Score: 2, Funny

      That makes me think of "A Christmas Story"....I double-dog dare you to put your tongue on that comet!

      --


      "Lame" - Galaxar
    5. Re:the flaming snowball theory? by BlankTim · · Score: 1

      Heh, didn't they do that in Joe Dirt?

      "Whatcha got there is a great big frozen poopie!"

      --
      Just once, I'd like it if someone called me "Sir".
      Without adding, "You're creating a scene."
  2. Don't rule out the cow! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    That doesn't rule out the cow, though. I mean, if I were a cow and there were comet fragments raining down on me, you'd better believe I'd be kicking over any lanterns in the general vicinity!

    1. Re:Don't rule out the cow! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I thought the cow story was made up by a reporter. It is a 19th century urban legend.

    2. Re:Don't rule out the cow! by Tablizer · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I thought the cow story was made up by a reporter. It is a 19th century urban legend.

      Shows how much we have grown: Our 21st century urban legends involve comets and meteors instead of farm animals. Hmmm. I wonder if this extrapolates to sexual preferences :p

    3. Re:Don't rule out the cow! by uncoveror · · Score: 3, Interesting

      There is a lawsuit against attorney Kevin O'Leary, an heir of Mrs. O'Leary over that fire. Maybe he should bring the comet theory to the court's attention. He certainly doesn't want to be held responsible for the actions of a cow long before he was born, especially if the cow is innocent.

      --
      The Uncoveror: It's the real news.
    4. Re:Don't rule out the cow! by praedictus · · Score: 1

      Late, last night, when everyone in bed,
      Old Mrs. Leary lit a lantern in the shed
      And when the cow kicked it over,
      She winked her eye and said,
      There'll be a hot time
      in the old town
      tonight (Fire! Fire! Fire!)

      Anyhow the methane could have just as easily come from cosmic cow farts...

      --
      Watashi wa chikyubutsurigakusha desu.
    5. Re:Don't rule out the cow! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Doh! I always thought the lyrics were "This old lady...".

      Seems I missed out on an important bit of trivia in my childhood. I wonder what else I missed...

    6. Re:Don't rule out the cow! by cosmo7 · · Score: 2, Funny

      I thought the cow story was made up by a reporter. It is a 19th century urban legend.

      It was probably that goat again.

    7. Re:Don't rule out the cow! by Jerf · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Uh, moderators, consider the source, OK? Said site also claims to have photographic proof of a Cardinals baseball cap in NASA Mars pictures, a story about how perfume are secret biological and chemical weapons tests, and a story about the power outage covering a Martian invasion.

      I'm 90% sure it's a deliberate humor site; I'd be more certain if they didn't seem to pull so many of their stories straight out of the paranoid schizophrenic playbook.

    8. Re:Don't rule out the cow! by RedWizzard · · Score: 2, Informative
      I'm 90% sure it's a deliberate humor site;
      You could have been 100% sure if you had spent 5 seconds clicking on the About The Uncoveror link:
      The Uncoveror is a journal of political satire, news parody, and sometimes outrageous farce.
    9. Re:Don't rule out the cow! by SEWilco · · Score: 3, Funny
      The Uncoveror is a journal of political satire, news parody, and sometimes outrageous farce.

      What a clever cover for their plot.

  3. Re:Same? by maphe · · Score: 4, Funny

    Yes. It is not widely known, especially after more than 100 years, but Mrs. O'Leary's cow was actually a raptor saurus.

    --
    Kharma? BADASS
  4. Re: Same? by Black+Parrot · · Score: 5, Funny


    > So, this is the one that killed the dinosaurs as well, yeah?

    No, the dinosaurs all died when a stegasaur kicked over a lantern...

    --
    Sheesh, evil *and* a jerk. -- Jade
  5. I've heard by Mark_MF-WN · · Score: 1

    I've heard this theory before, but it's certainly an interesting one. I suppose it will be pretty hard to verify though -- nothing destroys evidence like building a city over it.

    1. Re:I've heard by canthusus · · Score: 1
      I suppose it will be pretty hard to verify though -- nothing destroys evidence like building a city over it.

      ...Except maybe burning the city down again!

    2. Re:I've heard by stygar · · Score: 1

      "nothing destroys evidence like building a city over it"

      How about burning down everything in the area first, then building a city over it?:)

    3. Re:I've heard by SEWilco · · Score: 1
      I suppose it will be pretty hard to verify though -- nothing destroys evidence like building a city over it.

      Nothing destroys flammable ice like having a fire around it.

    4. Re:I've heard by Ayaress · · Score: 1

      I saw it about six years ago. I think the most credible bit of evidence was that the Chicago fire wasn't alone. A number of small towns, and even ships on Lake Michigan, had fires simultaneously, and evidence was found that there was a forest fire in southern Wisconsin in the same timeframe. Maybe a small air burst meteor, or a larger meteorite breaking up and falling over a larger area.

      The cow's been ruled out for decades, though. It may have lit the barn on fire, but at least one part of the city was on fire before the O'Leary farm.

    5. Re:I've heard by stonecypher · · Score: 1

      Eight archaeologists just rolled over in their graves.

      --
      StoneCypher is Full of BS
  6. Read that a couple of years ago by Bravo_Two_Zero · · Score: 5, Informative

    I don't recall where, but I'd read that a couple of years ago. The main support came from what happend to a small town about 40 miles outside Chicago that was essentially obliterated by a rapid, intense fire. I think it was the center of the activity mentioned as "north of Chicago" in the article. I'm glad to see the theory getting a little more publicity and play.

    --


    Amateurs discuss tactics. Professionals discuss logistics.

    1. Re:Read that a couple of years ago by shadowbearer · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I'd read bits and pieces of this theory over the last couple decades, but never saw any kind of coherent whole.

      It's fascinating, and quite plausible, especially when you consider how rapidly the hugely widespread fires took place. I live in an area that experiences annual forest fires, and it's just not plausible that a simple localized fire could have started the whole Chicago area conflagaration. Not even California fires spread that fast.

      (from article)

      it also would explain the cause of the fires blazing north of Chicago, which wiped out 2,000 people and burned 4 million acres of farm and prairie lands.

      and

      In all, over a 24-hour period, an area of land the size of Connecticut was burned

      His explanation makes a lot of sense to me. Hats off to Mr. Wood, this is brilliant. (danged puns! :)

      I'd love to see his orbital analysis. Anyone know if it's available on the web? A search didn't reveal anything (probably just me not knowing what to ask)

      SB
      PS- Didn't Astronomy magazine do an article on this once? Or was it S&T?

      --
      It's old. The more humans I meet, the more I like my cats. At least they are honest.
    2. Re:Read that a couple of years ago by DynaSoar · · Score: 3, Informative

      "I don't recall where, but I'd read that a couple of years ago."

      I read it about 35 years ago. There were around 150 fires that night in various places around Wisconsin.

      I *think* it was in "Mysterious Fires and Lights" by Jacques Vallee, but I may be mistaken. It was, after all, 35 years ago.

      --
      "I may be synthetic, but I'm not stupid." -- Bishop 341-B
    3. Re:Read that a couple of years ago by pensdude · · Score: 2, Informative

      The November 1990 issue of Fate magazine has an article on the comet (pp 44-52). It mentions showers of burning sand (cometary debris) and reports of fires starting in basements where heavier-than-air gasses would settle. The article also notes numerous vctims dead without visible burns, possibly from carbon monoxide or excessive levels of carbon dioxide. Additionally, the other cities are names Pestigo WI and Manitee MI.

    4. Re:Read that a couple of years ago by Grrr · · Score: 1

      Google sez...

      "Peshtigo, Wisconsin has the distinction of being the site of the worst fire in US history..."

      <grrr>

    5. Re:Read that a couple of years ago by bill_mcgonigle · · Score: 1

      I seem to recall a Discovery special not too long ago on this. In one town the only survivors were those who were down by the river, including a Reverend who convinced lots of scared people to get in the middle of the river and soak down. They still had burns from radiation but many survived to tell about it.

      --
      My God, it's Full of Source!
      OUTSIDE_IP=$(dig +short my.ip @outsideip.net)
    6. Re:Read that a couple of years ago by Muad'Dave · · Score: 1

      Before someone misunderstands, I think the parent poster means infrared 'radiation' (heat), not ionizing nuclear 'radiation'.

      --
      Tiller's Rule: Never use a word in written form that you've only heard and never read. You will end up looking foolish.
  7. in the spirit of gary larson, by The+Unabageler · · Score: 3, Funny

    was the comet made up of cows?

    --
    perl -e '$_="\007/4`\cp%2,".chr(127);s/./"\"\\c$&\""/gees; print'
  8. Re:Same? by bersl2 · · Score: 2, Funny

    Mrs. O'Leary's cow was actually a raptor saurus.

    That's one pretty confused raptor...

  9. Disney Science... by braddock · · Score: 4, Informative

    I like the THEORY, but this is a story from Disney's esteamed peer-reviewed Discovery channel about a theory from a man who has spent decades as a known UFO investigator.

    Robert Wood's resume can be found here, at the site MajesticDocuments.com. Not that that necesarily discredits the theory, but it definitly gives some pause to the source.

    Braddock Gaskill

    1. Re:Disney Science... by house15 · · Score: 2, Funny

      Holy Crap! Disney owns Discovery? No wonder most of their "science" involves Billy-Bobs with torches and suped-up engines. Give Eisner one thing, he knows his audience.

    2. Re:Disney Science... by SEWilco · · Score: 2, Informative
      The papers from that conference are available for purchase in PDF format in the AIAA web site - In the Conference field enter "Planetary Defense"

      This paper is "Did Biela's Comet Cause the Chicago and Midwest Fires?"

      Hmm.. It is a 1995 paper: 15. Robert M. Wood, "Did Biela's Comet Cause the Chicago and Midwest Fires?", Society for Scientific Exploration Annual Meeting, 15-17 June 1995, Huntington Beach, California.

      Aha. Google for "Biela's Comet" Chicago.

      The idea is in a 1985 book, Mrs. O'Leary's Comet: Cosmic Causes of the Great Chicago Fire.

      There also was a meteor shower associated with Comet Biela, but in 1871 of the October 9 Chicago fire the shower was around November 27.

    3. Re:Disney Science... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      so he investigates a disputable event that has an aweful lot of controversy|?

      someone has to investigate it, theres just way to many claims to just simply ignore it.

  10. Extraterrestrial Origin of Ruminants by angst_ridden_hipster · · Score: 3, Funny

    This supports my pet theory, that cows are actually from outer space.

    They created humanity in order to tend the fields for them, but somewhere along the line, the plan went horribly, terriby wrong for the ruminants.

    O'Leary's cow was trying to call in some airstrikes to inspire the resistance. Yet another dismal failure for the Glorious Extraterrestrial Cow Revolution...

    --
    Eloi, Eloi, lema sabachtani?
    www.fogbound.net
    1. Re:Extraterrestrial Origin of Ruminants by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So all those horrible cow experiments accredited to UFO's is actually guerilla warfare between cows and their galatic enemies?

    2. Re:Extraterrestrial Origin of Ruminants by eglamkowski · · Score: 1

      I believe you mean gorilla warfare - the galatic enemies of cows are, of course, gorillas.

      --
      Government IS the problem.
    3. Re:Extraterrestrial Origin of Ruminants by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I for one, Welcome our new Bovine Overlord Masters!

      9 out of 10 Bovine Overlord Masters recommend Paul Newman's Steak Sauce, by the way. The rest of you had better stock up!

    4. Re:Extraterrestrial Origin of Ruminants by Morologous · · Score: 1

      I just *knew* that steak I had for dinner last night was out-of-this-world! Here and I just thought it was my wife's cooking.

  11. Disney vs. Discovery by tepples · · Score: 5, Informative

    Holy Crap! Disney owns Discovery?

    I don't think so. Here's a list of what Disney owns. Discover magazine is on there (scroll up to magazine titles), but it has no connection to Discovery Communications that I can find (scroll down to cable TV).


    Eisner demoted!
    1. Re:Disney vs. Discovery by house15 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Dang. If you ask me, that's even worse. I subscribed to Discover for years. It had great science without having to slog through pages of complicated math (to defend myself, I was in high school at the time). I picked it up in an airport a couple of years ago and was so disappointed at how crappy and commercial and boring it had become. Now I know why.

      Thanks tepples.

  12. Comets by Samus · · Score: 2, Funny

    So does this mean now that we'll see a bunch of cheesily dressed up plaster comets all over Chicago? (They did it with cows for anyone who never saw it)

    --
    In Republican America phones tap you.
  13. other unexplained things about the Chicago fire by CoronalPendragon · · Score: 5, Interesting

    It is worth noting that Chicago fire was not typical in many ways. The fire was unusually hot. One factory that burned melted pig iron 200 feet away. Buildings burned on a timescale of minutes, it was reported. Unlike your normal everyday fire, nothing was left half-burned. It also burned INTO the wind, which is contrary for usual fires. A guy in the New York Evening Post wrote, "buildings far beyond the line of fire, and in no contact with it, burst into flames from the interior". The other facts I noted may be referenced in The Annual Record of Science and Industry for1876, pg. 84 and History of the Great Conflagration Sheahan & Upton, Chicago, Illinois, 1871

    1. Re:other unexplained things about the Chicago fire by subtropolis · · Score: 2, Interesting

      This article at the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientist discusses the effects of firestorms and how one could be expected to behave within a city. Granted, the author is writing about a 300-kiloton weapon being detonated over the city, but you get the drift.

      --
      "Our interests are to see if we can't scale it up to something more exciting," he said.
    2. Re:other unexplained things about the Chicago fire by cybermace5 · · Score: 1

      A large fire will suck massive amounts of air into it from combustion and updrafts from the superheated air. Naturally, these winds would rush right into the teeth of the blaze

      --
      ...
  14. Easily explained by radiation physics by Tau+Zero · · Score: 5, Informative
    Buildings burned on a timescale of minutes, it was reported. Unlike your normal everyday fire, nothing was left half-burned. It also burned INTO the wind, which is contrary for usual fires. A guy in the New York Evening Post wrote, "buildings far beyond the line of fire, and in no contact with it, burst into flames from the interior". The other facts I noted may be referenced in The Annual Record of Science and Industry for1876, pg. 84 and History of the Great Conflagration Sheahan & Upton, Chicago, Illinois, 1871
    If you have a large and hot enough fire, heat radiation will be able to raise material to its ignition temperature some distance away. (This can be observed in forest fires; trees will burst into flame when the fire has not yet reached them. I understand that houses in the path of forest fires often burn when radiant heat ignites things like drapes.) This would also explain why a building would burn in minutes: when every room facing the front of the fire is ignited more or less at once, and the subsequent flashover ignites the far side a short time later, the building is going to burn much faster than if the blaze started at a single point.
    --
    Time is Nature's way of keeping everything from happening at once... the bitch.
  15. Sound plausible considering... by weeboo0104 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    That meteorite fragments hit Chicago last June(?). My windows was facing away from the city, but I was still able to see a bright flash which I thought was lightning at first. Anybody else in the Chicago area remember the meteorite last year?

    --
    It is easier to build strong children than to repair broken men. -Frederick Douglass
    1. Re:Sound plausible considering... by SEWilco · · Score: 3, Funny
      That meteorite fragments hit Chicago last June(?). My windows was facing away from the city, but I was still able to see a bright flash which I thought was lightning at first. Anybody else in the Chicago area remember the meteorite last year?

      No. I thought I saw something strange, but all I can clearly remember is a bright flash and two men in black walking away.

  16. Not so Easily explained by radiation physics by CoronalPendragon · · Score: 2, Informative
    according to the fire marshall
    "I felt it in my bones that we were going to have a burn...

    We got the fire under control, and it would not have gone a foot farther; but the next thing I knew they came and told me that St. Paul's Church, about two squares north, was on fire"

    That doesn't sound like radiation. If so, there is no way the fire marshal could have been so close, but possibly.

    The huge stone and brick structures melted before the fierceness of the flames as a snowflake melts and disappears in water, and almost as quickly. Six-story buildings would take fire and disappear for ever from sight in five minutes by the watch....The fire also doubled on its track at the Union Depot and burned a half a mile southward in the teeth of the gale-a gale which blew a perfect tornado, and in which no vessel could have lived on the lake...

    Strange, fantastic fires of blue, red and green played along the cornices of buildings. History of the Chicago Fire, pg. 85,86

    The most striking peculiarity of the fire was its intense heat. Nothing exposed to it escaped. Amid the hundreds of acres left bare there is not to be found a piece of wood of any description, and unlike most fires, it left nothing half burned... The fire swept the streets of all the ordinary dust and rubbish, consuming it instantly.Ibid. pg. 119

    So, while there are definately, some things that can be explained by radiation, it is by no means the whole story. Even the firestorms in Germany created by incendiary bombs and the atomic bomb in Japan left charred remains. Something different is going on here.

  17. DON'T CLICK! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    youl never get it out of your head....

  18. Sounds like legend there - evidence? by Tau+Zero · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Even the firestorms in Germany created by incendiary bombs and the atomic bomb in Japan left charred remains.
    Yes they did... to some degree. To what degree can that be true and still be consistent with the (possibly overblown) description of the fire marshal?
    So, while there are definately, some things that can be explained by radiation, it is by no means the whole story.... Something different is going on here.
    You've just asserted a positive. You're implying that, of all the known phenomena (direct contact by flame, radiation, embers, flashover from combustible gases - were there underground tunnel networks in pre-fire Chicago?) nothing accounts for the fire "burning everything" and igniting buildings to the windward in a gale.
    1. Is there any physical evidence remaining to qualify or quantify the elements of the fire marshal's account? If not, you're drawing conclusions from zero data.
    2. Radiation does indeed account for rubbish being burned (radiant heat would ignite it) and for a fire burning upwind (radiation is not affected by the wind, and the leeward side of a windowed building could be ignited just as easily by radiation as the windward side). Once ignited, the building could flash over inside and begin radiating heat on its own windward side, continuing the process. This might be easier after the winds from a firestorm have had some time to dry out buildings.
    3. Radiation isn't the whole story. Embers falling out of the smoke cloud have their own chance to do their thing.
    4. Brick and stone buildings are usually supported by internal timbers and have plenty of combustibles inside. Once those ignite (especially all at once, and supported by radiant heat from the environs) they could weaken quickly and bring the whole structure down. Buckling of masonry from radiant heat could account for more of this; typical fires do not involve whole blocks and wouldn't exhibit this phenomenon enough to be familiar.
    5. You get interesting colors in fires when you add metallic salts. Copper salts in particular burn green, and copper roofs used to be much more common than they are now.
    I think that one would need to account as completely as possible for known phenomena before asserting that unknown phenomena were at work in the Chicago fire.
    --
    Time is Nature's way of keeping everything from happening at once... the bitch.
  19. Re:Same? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There's nothing wrong with that and we still love him the same. Besides, we're sure it's just a phase he's going through now that he'll eventually outgrow.

    Sincerely,
    Mr. and Ms. Raptor

  20. Occam's Razor by cybermace5 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I think this is an overly-complicated explanation for a tragic event. The fires were surrounded by wild-eyed accounts from people who were in mortal panic. Sensational journalism often "enhanced" the facts, and there really wasn't any way to check up on the factual basis of the stories.

    There was a very long, bone-dry period before the fires. The whole area was a tinderbox, heavily wooded at the time, with lots of underbrush; houses weren't built to fire codes, communication was slow so people didn't have the chance to evacuate. The physics of forest fires have to be seen to be believed; the fire will follow the fuel, not the wind. The fire creates its own wind and becomes a temporary blast furnace. The sheer heat from such rapid burning will easily cause objects to burst into flame when not in contact with the fire. The oxygen is also rapidly consumed, and suffocating gases produced, without the need for chunks of methane.

    There is also no real way to prove that many fires started simultaneously. Communication, again, was patchy and slow at best. The fire could spread along dozens of unpopulated paths and appear to pop up everywhere at once.

    Accidentally starting a fire is easy, and it's not so absurd to think that fires might have broken out in a few separate locations, given the tinder-dry conditions at the time. The times could have been separated by hours and still appear simultaneous. Things like lightning, static electricity, spontaneous combustion...they're all possible, but that's looking for an over-glamorous cause to a massive tragedy.

    The odds are very good that the fires were started accidentally by very mundane means. Someone's cooking fire might have wafted a spark into some dry grass, or someone might have dropped their pipe and not noticed until it was too late. The conditions were just so dry, the whole place was a firebomb on a hair trigger.

    Sometimes people want to take a tragic accidental event and attach some absurd, freak cause to it. It helps distance the event from them; if it can't happen normally, they don't have to worry about the risk, right? Many people prefer the "Navy missile" theory of TWA 800, instead of the "frayed wire" theory. It makes the tragedy the stuff of legends, and it doesn't hit quite so close to home anymore.

    --
    ...
    1. Re:Occam's Razor by the+pickle · · Score: 1

      If the fires were confined to the present-day Chicago metroplex, I'd buy Occam's Razor.

      Peshtigo, Wisconsin, is about 200 miles due north of Chicago. Manistee, Michigan, is about 200 miles away AND across a giant body of water.

      Both towns experienced severe fires that night, at least if this post is accurate.

      That's some fantastic coincidence if you ask me...

      p

    2. Re:Occam's Razor by cybermace5 · · Score: 1

      As I said before...the place was a tinderbox. It is NOT a fantastic coincidence at all. We aren't talking about strange monoliths appearing, or volcanic eruptions, or mass disappearances. This is fire. It only takes one doofus to let a spark get away from them, and fire happened to be the only way for people to cook food, work metal, boil water...fire was more common, there's doofuses everywhere, and the area was in a drought.

      Still don't believe me? Here is the final, killer argument: why does every town have a fire department? Because there are fires all the time. Every day, all across the nation. There were dozens or hundreds of small fires accidentally started across the Midwest on that night, and because of the dry conditions, a few of them got away before anyone could put them out. A lot of places didn't even have any way to fight fires.

      You don't need to come up with some oddball theory for this. This is so NOT a fantastic coincidence. Tragic, yes.

      --
      ...
    3. Re:Occam's Razor by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      So You're saying that the coincidence of accidental fires of tragic proportions occurring on the same day hundreds of miles apart is more likely than the fires having a common source such as the comet theory? It seems to me that if the source of each fire was a human accident, the likelihood of them occurring on the same day is smaller, not larger. Droughts that produce the dry, tinderbox conditions mentioned take time to develop. Over that period of time, the likelihood of a fire increases. But the chance of three noteworthy wildfires starting on the same day seems small indeed, particularly when none apparently occurred in the days, weeks or even months preceding or following. Razor that.

    4. Re:Occam's Razor by cybermace5 · · Score: 1

      You're an idiot, of course the chance of fires starting on the same day in remote locations is MUCH greater than the odds of an astronomical object even hitting earth, much less in that particular region of the planet. You really need to take a look at the astronomical distances involved as well as take a refresher course in statistics.

      Never mind though, you want to believe it was a comet, go ahead and mislead yourself. Say hi to E.T. for me.

      --
      ...
    5. Re:Occam's Razor by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If the chances of severe fires was so great, why did they all start on that one day, not any other days before or after?

    6. Re:Occam's Razor by cybermace5 · · Score: 1

      The answer is...BECAUSE THEY DID.

      Why did that car pull out from a side street right when the sun hit my eyes?

      Why did the power go out right while I was about to save my work for the last hour?

      Why did Benz and Daimler invent practical gasoline-powered cars simultaneously without ever hearing of each other?

      "That a particular specified event or coincidence will occur is very unlikely. That some astonishing unspecified events will occur is certain. That is why remarkable coincidences are noted in hindsight, not predicted with foresight."--David G. Myers

      --
      ...
  21. Re:Same? by TMB · · Score: 1
    That's one pretty confused Raptor...

    Damn, so that's why they keep losing...

    [TMB]

  22. Ahem. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Three nights ago, when we were all in bed
    Old lady Leary left a lantern in the shed
    and when the cow kicked it over
    she winked her eye and said
    "There'll be a hot time in the old town tonight!"


    Thank you.