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Study: MP3 Sharing Not Serious Threat To CD Sales

Posted by timothy on from the problem-with-static-worldviews dept.

pkaral writes "The two distinguished gentlemen Strumpf and Oberholzer-Gee have most likely made RIAA executives choke on their lunches. Those two economists at Harvard and UNC-Chapel Hill have done the research and the math on how much CD sales are actually hurt by P2P sharing. The answer: A whopping one CD per 5,000 files downloaded. Needless to say, RIAA are already trying to discredit the study."

59 of 704 comments (clear)

  1. I expect... by inertia187 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Now I expect a full apology and retraction for the demonization P2P has gotten from the RIAA, et. al. They should be trying to increase downloads like radio stations try to increase listeners.

    Record labels should distribute approved MP3 tracks, then offer them as singles on CD, just like the radio stations. They should closely scrutinize the downloading habits, then create an album based on the popularity of certain tracks.

    They don't see this as a tool, only as a threat. They're idiots.

    TV Production should do this too. If Viacom released official BitTorrents of Enterprise, complete with banner ads at the bottom of the screen, I'd download them. The banner ads would make me more likely to delete it when I'm done watching it, which is what they'd want, right. Then they can still sell me the DVD.

    That'll probably never happen, though.

    --
    A programmer is a machine for converting coffee into code.
    1. Re:I expect... by lukewarmfusion · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "hey should closely scrutinize the downloading habits, then create an album based on the popularity of certain tracks."

      Many artists battle with the record companies on which songs make their records. As an artist, I wouldn't want "market demand" determining the makeup of my album.

      On the other hand, "artists" like P. Diddy or Britney Spears might prefer it that way.

    2. Re:I expect... by American+AC+in+Paris · · Score: 5, Insightful
      No, they probably do see it as a tool, but a tool that they need to keep a close eye on.

      Their logic probably goes something like this: so long as we can keep making people feel guilty/nervous about filesharing, we'll be able to keep P2P as a promotional tool while minimizing the risk of it taking over as the best way to get music.

      They'd never say this outright, of course, as it'd undermine their PR campaign against P2P. But so long as they keep P2P flooded with crap and pursue the occasional lawsuit, they'll be able to reap the benefit of filesharing without having it grow into a serious replacement for their distribution models.

      They're not idiots, they're cutthroat businessmen. They care about lots of things, but in the end, making money trumps all other concerns.

      --

      Obliteracy: Words with explosions

    3. Re:I expect... by IWorkForMorons · · Score: 4, Insightful
      If Viacom released official BitTorrents of Enterprise, complete with banner ads at the bottom of the screen, I'd download them. The banner ads would make me more likely to delete it when I'm done watching it, which is what they'd want, right.

      Right. Until, that is, someone figures out a way to remove those banner ads, leaving a clean near DVD-quality version for everyone to download. Then the industry will cry fowl saying it hurts they're profits, even though the advertising companies have already paid them. Then they'll start creating all these DRM schemes to try and prevent that from happening, which will only be a smokescreen as they use it's failure to press for laws outlawing all media being downloaded from "unauthorized distribution points." At that point, if they succeed, they will effective control all media on the net, because it is illegal to host and upload any media files to anyone whatsoever, unless you pay a licencing fee. Same story that's been going on in one form or another for decades...

    4. Re:I expect... by inertia187 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Their logic probably goes something like this: so long as we can keep making people feel guilty/nervous about filesharing, we'll be able to keep P2P as a promotional tool while minimizing the risk of it taking over as the best way to get music.

      How Orwellian. There's a word for that in 1984: Doublethink

      --
      A programmer is a machine for converting coffee into code.
    5. Re:I expect... by OoSync · · Score: 5, Insightful
      They should closely scrutinize the downloading habits, then create an album based on the popularity of certain tracks.

      They don't see this as a tool, only as a threat. They're idiots.

      Actually, the real fun with the RIAA and major labels is that they already do such things. Please view the Wired article:
      BigChampagne is Watching You.

      I say this is fun because the RIAA talks out both sides of its mouth: it wants to limit major expansion of free P2P downloads (control the download market) and simultaneously use the data from such spontaneous sources to make smart investments on marketing.

      Of course, when they say "CD sales" have gone down, I'm not so sure they mean all CD-based formats (singles, albums, collections, etc.) or just some sub-categories, like CD sigles. I can believe CD singles have been decimated by P2P filesharing, but I'm more reluctant to agree to a rapid, major decline in album sales without proper evidence. In other words, I don't believe what the RIAA claims is exactly what is happening, merely what they want you to think is happening.

      --

      I always get the shakes before a drop.
    6. Re:I expect... by RickHunter · · Score: 5, Insightful

      True. On the other hand, this would allow you to release songs that wouldn't ordinarily go on your records AND give you actual data (lots of people downloaded this song and e-mailed me to tell me they liked it) to use to fight the record company. Which is another reason why they're scared of P2P. They're afraid that artists wouldn't have to rely on their nebulous marketing data and might actually have some say in their music.

    7. Re:I expect... by mumblestheclown · · Score: 4, Insightful
      "They should closely scrutinize the downloading habits, then create an album based on the popularity of certain tracks."

      Do you realize how close this sounds to 1998-esque dot-com business plans? "Let's give away free pies so that, we, umm, can see which pies people like so that we can, umm, sell pies!"

      However, you do one better, with your inane "create an album" idea. Ignoring the first fundamental fact that you shit on artist ingretiy this way and ignoring for a moment that the RIAA has PLENTY of popularity data already based on record sales, polls, radio monitoring, and a host of other means and they dont need terribly much more, you seem to forget that the RIAA's constituent members want to maximize their profit. If the public is willing to buy 10 individual cds to get 12 songs they like, then why bother putting all 12 songs on 1 cd?

      You do one better still by talking about video downloads and ignoring the 10,000 pound gorilla in the room which is to say that as bandwidth increases, in a few years videos and movies are going to be facing the exact same problem that the RIAA has today and you'll bitch about the DVD just as you bitch about physical CDs today.

      I dont know who in hell modded you as insightful.

    8. Re:I expect... by Tin+Foil+Hat · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Most of the popular music sold at mass market venues are highly produced and engineered with the purpose of selling as many albums as possible. Unfortunately, that often leaves little room for artistic expression. That is not to belittle the talent of the artist, but to recognize a greater reality in that market: that business is business no matter what the atistic merit of the product.

      If you are aware enough to recognize art when you see or hear it, you are also aware enough to seek out venues that feature such artists. Such venues do not cater to mass marketing. These are the bars, honkey tonks, indie recording labels that have been showcasing the best artists for generations. You find them at the edge of the university district, in the raucus dives, the after hours clubs, in the back of the local news rag that nobody really reads, and in the small record stores in the old strip mall downtown.

      The major labels are good at doing one thing well, and only one thing, and that's making money. Don't let them kid you, even if CD sales are falling, they are still making money hand over fist. They will try to tell you that since this years take is smaller than last years take, they have somehow lost money. That is simply not true. They have made money, just not as much as last year. Boo Hoo.

      If there are any record RIAA executives reading this comment, this is for you: "It's the ECONOMY, stupid!"

      --
      No matter how many of my rights are taken away, somehow I still don't feel safe. -Frigid Monkey
    9. Re:I expect... by jarran · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Many artists battle with the record companies on which songs make their records. As an artist, I wouldn't want "market demand" determining the makeup of my album. On the other hand, "artists" like P. Diddy or Britney Spears might prefer it that way.

      It;s probably worth pointing out that P. and Britney are making the recording industry a hellova lot more than you are.

      No offense intended, and I'm not saying it's a good thing. In fact, I think that this is one of the reasons why the recording industry fears P2P so much - not because it effects sales, but because it's capable of smashing down the barriers between artist and listener.

      RIAA execs don't lie awake in bed worrying that in 10 years times, sales will have been cut in half by P2P.

      They instead lie awake in bed worrying that in 10 years time, artists will deliver their music straight from the recording studio in their attic, through the server in the basement, to their Internet based community of fans.

      OK, this is an extreme idea, but it's plausibly that it will happen to some lesser greater extent. Regardless, it will make the record companies a much less powerful force.

    10. Re:I expect... by Dun+Malg · · Score: 3, Insightful
      In a computer media player, it would be all about the first ad because if the viewer isn't interested by the first one, they're going to drag he slider 2-3 minutes into the future until the show is back. Commercials in the middle would be skipped over the vast majority of the time.

      Then again, the same could be said not only of a show watched via any recording device, but live TV watching as well. You only see the first couple seconds of the first commercial before you get up and use the bathroom, get a snack, or flip the channel. The first commercial has always been the prime position and advertisers already pay more for it.

      --
      If a job's not worth doing, it's not worth doing right.
    11. Re:I expect... by The-Dalai-LLama · · Score: 4, Insightful
      I can believe CD singles have been decimated by P2P filesharing,

      I'm sure that your two-cents' worth is absolutely correct regarding the effect that filesharing has had on the sale of singles, but I would also like to add my own pennies and say that I think the sale of singles was already on the skids before P2P made the scene.

      Warning: rant commencing in 5...4...3...2...1...

      In my experience (i.e. - Take it for what it's worth; I'm not gonna research a bunch of statistics right now and this rant was spawned by a number of incredibly frustrating attempts to go out and buy the single versions of songs that I liked), many albums (dare I say most) only have one or two good tracks anyway. Selling a cheap single of the one track that people will pay to hear probably cuts into the sale of the full album, which many people will buy anyway just to hear the one or two tracks that they like! In addition to that, CD singles cost upwards of $5 (YMMV), so there wasn't a whole lot of incentive to buy them even before P2P. A $6.99 single is an hour's wages for most of Britney's target market, and the added value of some pop princess doing a crappy B-Side live cover of a Stones song that her producer suggested (after telling her who the Rolling Stones are), is not enough incentive to pony up for a single.

      Your .02 plus my .02 equals 4 cents that I would rather use as a suppository than contribute to the Rectal Invasion and Assault Association.

      The Dalai LLama
      what the hell happened the old Chuck Berry 45's?

      --
      My sig could be your sig!
    12. Re:I expect... by IWorkForMorons · · Score: 5, Insightful
      Alright, if I could mod this, I'd give it a Funny mod. You've got a point. A lot of it is speculative, because it hasn't happened *yet*. At least not in the TV and Movie arena. The DMCA is doing a pretty good job of allowing companies to sue people in order to prevent them from showing you how to use a Sharpie to disable the DRM on a CD though. It could be used in the same way by TV and movie producers. Oh wait, that's right...the movie guys have already done that (*cough* *cough* *DeCSS* *cough*). And they've already gone through the licencing thing with TV and radio. Why do you think you have to pay for a *broadcasting* licence?

      An example is a friend of mine's mother. She loves religious shows. But where she lives she can't get any. And she can't afford a dish. So a friend of her's set up a transmitter at his place, which was a few miles away, to broadcast the religous channel from his dish. All she had to do was tune in to his transmitter. It didn't take long for the cops to shut that down, with orders from the CBSC. He didn't alter the programming in any way. The channel was broadcast in full, commercials and all. But he wasn't allowed to rebroadcast it, because he didn't have a licence to...

      Yeah, sure...a lot of what I said is the tin-foil hat kind of rant, but just because I'm wearing a tin-foil hat doesn't mean I'm not telling the truth...

    13. Re:I expect... by 13Echo · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I believe that the biggest issue is that it is a tool that they *don't control*. They're losing their power over distribution, very rapidly. Even if people are still buying CDs, what does the future hold when traditional music companies are replaced by alternative means of music distribution?

      They traditional record label and its goons aren't needed anymore. They're becoming extinct.

      The answer is in my sig.

    14. Re:I expect... by skarmor · · Score: 3, Insightful

      If you are aware enough to recognize art when you see or hear it, you are also aware enough to seek out venues that feature such artists. Such venues do not cater to mass marketing. These are the bars, honkey tonks, indie recording labels that have been showcasing the best artists for generations. You find them at the edge of the university district, in the raucus dives, the after hours clubs, in the back of the local news rag that nobody really reads, and in the small record stores in the old strip mall downtown.

      You do realize that you sound like a pompous ass right?

      I guess all the people who like music that is popular just can't recognize "art" when they hear it. It's only people such as yourself who hang out at the local "honkey tonks" and "after hours clubs" that truly understand music.

      The truth is that many people know that pop music is a marketing tool (I mean, it is pretty obvious) but enjoy it anway. The value of any work of art is completely subjective. So while you and I might prefer Johnny Cash to Justin Timberlake - this does not give us the authority to act like condescending assholes towards people who do like (in my opinion, overly manufactured and soulless) pop music.

    15. Re:I expect... by ThosLives · · Score: 4, Insightful
      But don't think this legitimizes copyrighted work sharing.
      Isn't a library legitimized copyrighted work sharing?
      --
      "There are a dozen opinions on a matter until you know the truth. Then there is only one." - CS Lewis (paraprhase)
    16. Re:I expect... by tanguyr · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It;s probably worth pointing out that P. and Britney are making the recording industry a hellova lot more than you are.

      "Of thirty thousand CDs that the industry released last year in the United States, only four hundred and four sold more than a hundred thousand copies, while twenty-five thousand releases sold fewer than a thousand copies apiece. No one seems to be able to predict which those four hundred and four big sellers will be."
      - source: The Money Note, by John Seabrook

      RIAA execs don't lie awake in bed worrying that in 10 years times, sales will have been cut in half by P2P.

      Unless their cluelessness approaches nearly mystical levels[1], recording industry executives know that digital distribution is inevitable. Sure, they're probably a bunch of old white guys who never heard of the internet before 2001, but that was three years ago, and you'd better bet they have *some* smart people working for them. Fact: digital distribution of music is more efficient than physical distribution - i can download a much wider selection of songs, at any time of the day or night, than i can get at the record store, and i live in a capital city. Imagine if you live in Armpit, Ar.

      But gearing up for digital distribution is going to take a) time and b) money. Time because not everybody has broadband yet - especially when you figure that, to these guys, the market is worldwide. Money because somebody has to invest in the infrastructure to make all this possible. Ask Apple how much they spent on their music store. On the other hand, the infrastructure for doing business in the bricks and mortar world is pretty much paid off and the profit margins are fat.

      The recording industry is squeezing every last cent of profit out of their current way of doing business before they switch to digital delivery and start all over. What keeps them awake at night is the idea that by the time they get there, sharing on p2p will have changed people's value perception of music: that they will think of it as something you get for free on the net.

      They instead lie awake in bed worrying that in 10 years time, artists will deliver their music straight from the recording studio in their attic, through the server in the basement, to their Internet based community of fans.
      In any market with many producers and many consumers, middlemen will always emerge. Over time, seeking to maximize profits by reducing inefficiency, these middlemen will be reduced to a few big players. Once this happens, these big players will start to exhibit monopolistic/oligopolistic behaviour - they will think of the market as "their market", not in terms of the market they compete in, but in terms of the market they own, like a private club. Eventually, this behaviour will distort the market and decrease the gains to the producers and consumers - thus providing incentive for somebody to offer an alternative. If that alternative proves profitable, copycats emerge and the power of the old middlemen diminishes until they are driven out of business (in their current form: they usually become just another copycat, vis. Barnes & Noble) and the market is governed by the new middlemen. Over time, seeking to maximize profits by reducing inefficiency, these new middlemen will be reduced to a few big players....

      Of course: i could be full of shit. "Professional" musicians have existed for thousands of years, whereas the recording industry hasn't. Then again, how many troubadours in the middle ages lived in castles? Only the ones who worked for the king.

      [1]"No one in this world ...has ever lost money by underestimating the intelligence of the great masses of the plain people. Nor has anyone ever lost public office thereby."
      -- H.L. Mencken

      --
      #!/usr/bin/english
  2. I think its helped the music industry by queen+of+everything · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I have found out about so many bands that I like that I would buy their cds or see them in concert because of mp3 sharing. I never would just go buy a cd of some band I have never heard of; but I can download an mp3 or 2 and discover that I really like the band. I'm glad that there are people studying it from the opposite angle of the RIAA.

    --
    "Wisdom is not a product of schooling but of the life-long attempt to acquire it." -Albert Einstein
  3. Hilarious. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I love it when people pounce on one study that happens to agree with their viewpoint and discredit studies that contradict them.

    I'm talking to you guys, not the RIAA.

    1. Re:Hilarious. by rabel · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I think the point is that this is a study by a couple of guys that can most likely be considered "unbiased" since, well, since there isn't really any money to be made by supporting P2P file sharing.

      Most other studies that show the P2P is hurting CD sales are put out by folks that are either paid by the record industry or can be otherwise deemed uncredible.

      Oh, and /. readers are certainly biased... just making the (obvious) point that there's a reason why what appears to be an unbiased study is pounced on by the readers here.

  4. Promotion vs. Sales by LostCluster · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Free over the air radio has always been considered a promotional vehicle for music artists, that hearing a song on the radio is more likely to inspire sales than prevent it.

    More or less, at this 1 CD per 5,000 downloads number, downloading is being called a push, it gives just about as much as it takes away from the recording industry.

    I think what the RIAA is really scared of is the fact that P2P distribution might allow an artist to gain fame and make money without going through the "major label system" and that'd be the death of that system. So, it's not that P2P threatens CD sales as much as it threatens RIAA-member CD sales by replacing them with something else.

  5. Well... by hermeshome.se · · Score: 5, Insightful

    There are probably no study in the world that could convince RIAA that P2P is good for business. They've made up their minds.
    BUT, it might convince lawmakers to whink twise, and it shows the common man what they already know: if you want something that is good, you'll pay for it. If you got a broad selection to sample, you'll more likely find something YOU like.

  6. Regardless... by jwthompson2 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    of whether P2P hurts CD sales, the issue that still needs to be dealt with is the legallity and morality/ethics of the issue. Perhaps in light of this laws or business practices need to be modified but until such time people should not be encouraged by this to behave in an illegal and unethical/immoral manner.

    --
    Even if I knew that tomorrow the world would go to pieces, I would still plant my apple tree. -Martin Luther
  7. Embrace, not extinguish by sboyko · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Larry Rosin, the president of Somerville, N.J.-based Edison Media Research, said ...
    "Anybody who says that the Internet has not affected sales is just not paying attention to what is going on out there," he said. "It's had an effect on everything else in life, why wouldn't it have an effect on this?"

    I think everyone agrees that the Internet has affected CD sales. What they (RIAA) don't get is that it can have a very positive impact on music sales and marketing. It opens a new way to sell music, which the RIAA has failed to take advantage of in any meaningful way. If they were to embrace the possibilities I think they could increase sales dramatically.

    --
    SCO, Microsoft, P2P, what's your hot button?
    1. Re:Embrace, not extinguish by LostCluster · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The real problem from the RIAA members is that they've invested millions in CD-pressing plants, and they're not interested in letting that barrier to entering the market go down so easy. If anybody with a $99/mo. simple webserver can distribute music and get their songs picked up by the radio, then the size of the pie will stay the same, but the RIAA members will each end up with smaller pieces because of all the new players that take little bits.

  8. The cause of lagging CD sales.. by CharAznable · · Score: 5, Insightful

    is of course lagging music quality! If Metallica's St. Anger is not selling like hotcakes it's because it's abject, utter crap, not because you can get it for free on the internet.

    --
    The perfect sig is a lot like silence, only louder
    1. Re:The cause of lagging CD sales.. by surprise_audit · · Score: 4, Insightful
      It's not just the quality of the music that's letting the RIAA down. The fact that they've deliberately reduced the volume of CDs issued in the last couple of years plays a part too.

      No, I don't remember where that little tidbit originally came from, but it was a bit of research that basically showed that the drop in available CDs was suspiciously close the RIAA starting to bitch and moan about the drop in sales, and it came very soon after P2P started to become fashionable.

  9. The RIAA is not as blind as we think they are by lavalyn · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You may think they are trying to keep what market and distribution methods are available at a cartel. While that's what they are publicly doing, I doubt the masterminds behind the member companies are that perversely blind.

    You have a bunch of big corporations, that by definition are not going to be able to react quickly to new changes in the environment. There's layers of bureaucracy within, and many times (think Sony Computer vs Sony Music) the left hand wants to slap the wrists of the right. I think they're just looking for a way to take advantage of the new system but don't have a clean implementation ready to put into production. So they make loud threatening noises and otherwise put up a front.

    Then they come out with a new system that everybody had already proposed ten times over three years ago. And everybody, especially the cartel members, end up happy.

    "Intel will continue to use its own IA64. No, we are not going to use AMD's x86-64 extensions."

    --
    Doing the Right Thing should not be preempted by making a buck.
  10. A counter point by GreenCrackBaby · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Songs that were heavily downloaded showed no measurable drop in sales, the researchers found after tracking sales of 680 albums over the course of 17 weeks in the second half of 2002. Matching that data with activity on the OpenNap file-sharing network, they concluded that file sharing actually increases CD sales for hot albums that sell more than 600,000 copies. For every 150 downloads of a song from those albums, sales increase by a copy, the researchers found.

    I think this information needs to be approached skeptically, as there's no way to measure reliably "what would have happened." Given a lack of P2P sharing, can you say for certain how many CDs you would have bought/would not have bought? Of course not.

    If CD sales for a popular download increase by 2%, can you ever prove they wouldn't have gone up 3% if not for downloading?

    I just don't think this can be proven either way.
    --

    "The market alone cannot provide sufficient constraints on corporation's penchant to cause harm." -- Joel Bakan
  11. The RIAA only hurt themselves by DroopyStonx · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The reason I stopped buying CDs and continue to download mp3s is because of how the RIAA reacted to the situation. Many others feel the same why. Why should we buy CDs? I'll support the artists by going to their concerts instead.

    They like to jump around like a big angry monkey and spread their lies and misinformation to get the public (and government) to see them as "poor me, people aren't buying our music" instead of coming to the realization of "Hey, maybe the music we're putting out is junk."

    Then they huff and puff, throw lawsuits left and right in an attempt to SCARE people into buying their products. Coercion, anyone?

    I think we've all known for quite some time that mp3 downloading is equivalent to when recordable cassette tapes were introduced. There was a frenzy from the industry as if it was the end of music and sales as they knew it. It wasn't.

    Now we're seeing the truth.

    --
    We have secretly replaced these Slashdot mods' sense of humor with a rusty nail. Let's see if they notice!!
  12. Re:It is not about sales but control by keirre23hu · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I agree... this news is not really shocking.. if your album is crap and people find out before they spend their hard earned money on it... guess what? they're reluctant to buy it.


    Iff the recording industry had a clue, they would take the poplarity of P2P filesharing AND the change in their sales numbers as proof that people are sick of paying inflated prices for music of decreasing quality. Just yet another example of people with money trying to use people with less money to keep their broken business model floating...


    I would like to see more studies on this subject though. It would be nice if the entertainment industry would get over themselves and began to value their customers' wants and needs.

  13. What is? by timothy · · Score: 5, Insightful

    "Its still piracy," you say. What is?

    Do people illegally download copyright material? Sure. But --

    Is it piracy when I download out-of-copyright old radio programs*? Or sample songs from bands who specifically encourage this? What about lectures stored on a Morpheus server in L. Lessig's campus office? :)

    Both "downloading" and "p2p" can mean a lot of things. I plan to buy a CD of Nero Wolfe MP3s in part because of the excellent episodes I've downloaded so far.

    Ah, well.

    timothy

    * Orson Welles' radio stuff is pretty incredible; his presentation of Dracula in particular is great

    --
    jrnl: http://tinyurl.com/c2l8yr / foes: http://tinyurl.com/ckjno5
  14. Of course by Psmylie · · Score: 4, Insightful

    File-sharing music has hurt sales. Because now you don't need to drop a bundle of cash on an album before realizing that the cd sucks and never listening to it again.

    --

    psmylie's dictionary: Godzillion (noun) Any number large enough to destroy Tokyo

  15. Optimist (was Re:Well...) by keirre23hu · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The only thing that will convinve legislators to choose the common man over the recording industry is an equally funded lobbying group... not likely

  16. Falling sales by stecoop · · Score: 3, Insightful

    RIAA points to data showing that CD sales fell from a high of more than $13.2 billion in 2000 to $11.2 billion in 2003

    [me] Who can I blame for my stocks, mutual funds and 401k falling during this timeframe.
    [RIAA] Those bad people we've been talking about downloading music.
    [me] So the tech bubble was just hype?
    [RIAA] Yes and soon as we start making more money we'll refill coffers with funds.
    [me] You mean from those $3,000 lawsuits from people that are buying your music.
    [RIAA] Err, uh, ahem...
    [me] I see so your working for the little guy now?
    [RIAA] Err, uh, aheeem.....

    You think it goes something likes that?

  17. Re:MP3 Sharing is Still Illegal!! by Bonewalker · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Maybe its not a threat economically, but your still enjoying the fruits of the musician's labor without paying for it.

    Doesn't this same thing occur every time you listen to the radio?

    You might say no because there are advertisers who are paying for the space, which the radio station then gives a portion to the music industry, thus paying the artist back...a pittance.

    Well, consider this. By downloading a song, many people, according to the study, often go purchase cd's from these artists whose music they have enjoyed for free. This is even better for the artist because they get at least a little more because it is direct revenue for them and the music industry.

    Another example, you can go check out a book from the library for free and read it in its entirety. For free! Not a single cent goes to the author. Yet, you're still enjoying the fruits of the author's labor without paying for it.

    Open your mind, see the possibilities.

  18. Be pro-active; spread the word by RLiegh · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Instead of circle jerking on slashdot--if you really care about this issue, send a copy of the study to your local congress-critters. Yes, it's a drop in the bucket compared to what the RIAA shovels at them, but it's at least more tangable than "mp3s @r3 t3h r0x0r" and it's a damned sight better than nothing!

  19. Re:downloading copyrighted music is Theft by puck71 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The difference between your analogies and downloading music is that the people in your analogies actually LOST something. In the first case, the mechanic lost some of his valuable time, and in the second example the city lost some money (according to your example, $20). People that say theft only involves physical property are over-generalizing, but MOST theft does involve physical property.

    Downloading music involves no direct loss for the RIAA. Nobody's time is lost and they don't have to pay out any money. The only way they can claim a loss is if they assume you would have bought the album that you downloaded, which is tenuous at best.

  20. Re:Its still piracy by dmeranda · · Score: 5, Insightful

    It's neither piracy or stealing, it's called "copyright infringement"...that's the term the LAW uses exclusively. And even then, it's only for those cases of P2P exchange which are done outside of the allowable exemptions to copyright law.

    If nothing else, this study even deflates the already weak argument that P2P is "stealing", because the argument used to be that by downloading you are "stealing" the potential income of artists. Well, without the economic argument now, then what exactly is stolen? There is nothing missing.

    You're correct in pointing out that 1/5000 is still a significant number. But also that the study does not concentrate on the other side; that P2P may inspire sales that never would have been made.

    The funny thing, but not unexpected, is that most businesses would be jumping for joy if a study like this came out. That percieved threats to your business in fact turned out not to be that bad after all. The RIAA/MPAA *should* be pleased by this study. IF it was about economics. But their reaction shows that it's not about the money at all, it's about their ability to totally control and manipulate human behavior and destroy capitalism, e.g., power.

  21. In the long term, P2P will kill CD sales by wwwrench · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I realize it is popular Slashdot dogmatism to insist that filesharing doesn't harm CD sales, and this may be true now, but what about in the future as bandwidth increases?? The RIAA might be evil, but they are not completely stupid. Right now, downloading songs one by one and tracking down every song of an album is time-consuming. But the RIAA realize that it is only a matter of time until it is faster and more convenient to download an entire album then go to a music store. When that time comes, their current business model will be borked. Other than distribution, the only service the record companies provide is marketing. When P2P distribution beats them out, they will die. Bands don't need a record company to finance the making of their album (with ever-cheaper home recording equipment). They can distribute music by themselves. So the only value the record company gives the band is marketing (and this doesn't add any value for the listener). So the RIAA realizes that in the long-term, they could be fucked. They might be able to retain the business of folks willing to listen to pap fed to them by marketing reps, but that is about it. (Not that this isn't a sizable source of revenue though....) I hope eventually artists will be able to build online music communities of people willing to support them, and then the RIAA will wither and die.

    --

    Deconstruct the State
    1. Re:In the long term, P2P will kill CD sales by ewhac · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I realize it is popular Slashdot dogmatism to insist that filesharing doesn't harm CD sales, and this may be true now, but what about in the future as bandwidth increases??

      I got news for you: Bandwidth isn't going to increase.

      The cost of real bandwidth -- actual, symmetrical, guaranteed bandwidth, not that overprovisioned ADSL or cable modem crud you may be using -- has remained essentially flat for the last three years. Costs for T1 circuits are still running roughly USD$1/kilobit/sec for "dialtone"; extra charges may apply for bandwidth usage over a certain amount.

      There is no market pressure to bring these prices down, and no alternative source to provide lower-cost services since the ILECs have a monopoly and just got the government to agree to lock out CLECs from their central offices. Wireless won't help; at some point, you have to tie down to the wired networks, and you're back to paying the ILECs again. Fiber to the home won't help; it will be rolled out by the ILECs or, worse, by your cable company who only wants you to watch, not talk back (no Counterstrike servers for you, muttonhead).

      So, no, I don't see a significant drop in datacomm prices any time soon, which means the Internet for end-users isn't going to get any faster.

      Schwab

      --
      Editor, A1-AAA AmeriCaptions
  22. This is probably true by .nuno · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I stopped downloading mp3s regularly already some time ago (about 2 years) not really because I was afraid of the RIAA/MPAA/whomever_else, but rather because I was tired of downloading Jason Donovan's latest hit under the name Rolling_Stones_Start_Me_Up_Live_In_Birmingham.mp3.

    During the 3 year period where I did use Napster (and Kazaa later on) to download mp3s I bought the bulk of my 250+ CD collection, mostly of bands that I had initially heard via P2P. In that sense, it did work a bit like radio.

    Not unlike many others, I also burned CDs with those MP3 files, but there's nothing like owning the real thing(TM) so I ended up buying the CDs of bands that I really liked.

    This has been said (only today) already about 300.000 times but I'll say it again (this is /. after all):
    When will ??AA realize that CDs don't sell because:
    a) sometimes the music does suck
    b) we all get the feeling of being ripped off when paying 20 EUR+ for any CD or DVD, especially knowing how much of that goes to the artist
    c) trying stuff is something you have to do. Would you by a new pair of trousers without trying them first? Would you buy a car you never drove?

    --
    .sig
  23. Damn lies! by LMCBoy · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Quoth the researchers:
    Oberholzer-Gee and his colleague, University of North Carolina's Koleman Strumpf, also said that their "most pessimistic" statistical model showed that illegal file sharing would have accounted for only 2 million fewer compact discs sales in 2002, whereas CD sales declined by 139 million units between 2000 and 2002.

    Respondeth the RIAA:
    Weiss cited a survey conducted by Houston-based Voter Consumer Research that found those who illegally download more music from the Internet buy less from legitimate outlets. Of respondents ages 18-24 who download, 33 percent said they bought less music than in the past year while 21 percent bought more. Of those ages 25-34, the survey found 25 percent bought less and 17 percent bought more, Weiss said.

    Earth to Weiss: These people bought fewer CDs in the past year, yes. But your stats show nothing about that being correlated with the fact that they are file sharers. Where is the control group? The stats on CD purchases of non-sharers? I'm sure their CD purchases skyrocketed last year, right? Oh wait:


    illegal file sharing would have accounted for only 2 million fewer compact discs sales in 2002, whereas CD sales declined by 139 million units between 2000 and 2002.

    Huh. Who'da thunk it?

    --
    Liberal (adj.): Free from bigotry; open to progress; tolerant of others.
  24. Re:RIAA by hattig · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If it wasn't for file sharing, I wouldn't have gone to see a band play live on Sunday (Icon of Coil, for those of you into industrial/EBM stuff, support from Deathboy, the most excellent Swarf [playing live in USA soon, go and see them if you can] and Solitary Experiments).

    I wouldn't have this 3 CD limited edition box set of Blutengel sitting next to me here. I wouldn't have 3 Cryonica Tanz compilation CDs so I can pick other bands I like and then buy their stuff ...

    I wouldn't even be into this whole genre! I'd still be looking around local music stores in a bored manner because there is nothing new or exciting on offer.

  25. Times have changed by lusid1 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Now when I buy a CD, it's because it's a really good CD, not because it was marketed really well. I have P2P to thank for that. Besides, P2P is just a scapegoat. If sales are down, it's really because more of that disposable income is being spent on DVD movies.

  26. RIAA vs GPL by levram2 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    RIAA has restrictions that you can't distribute the music they produce. The GPL has restrictions that you can't distribute binaries without giving access to the source code. Downloading music withot paying for it is morally equivalent to using the GPL in closed source products.

    If you don't agree with the license, don't use it.

    Hurt the RIAA by stop using their music.

  27. Let the market decide by God!+Awful+2 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Now I expect a full apology and retraction for the demonization P2P has gotten from the RIAA, et. al. They should be trying to increase downloads like radio stations try to increase listeners.
    If you want to prove something from this, you have to let the market decide. If some labels allow file sharing and the P2P networks actually had mechanisms to enforce copyrights, we would soon see whether file sharing really has a positive or negative effect.

    -a

    --
    /. users can't
  28. Re:A whopping 5000 by Frennzy · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Well, without digging through your math, let's assume 72,000 CDs per year. At $15 per CD, that's roughly $1.08million dollars. Where is the rest of the $2BILLION they claim to have lost?

    For the mathematically disinclined, where is the remaining 99.995% of their alleged losses coming from?

  29. I am not surprised by Tangurena · · Score: 5, Insightful
    In my own experience, I used napster to find songs that my local radio stations would not play. I used napster to track down interesting new music, and then go purchase the albums. This led to me purchase between 5 and 20 albums per month.

    As Napster became more and more vilified, companies refused to let employees use napster at work. As a result, by the end of 2001, I was no longer able to use it at work (and had dial up at home, so the time it took to screen potential candidates was approaching an hour per song). With the covert and overt poisoning of tracks placed for sharing, it is not worth my effort to sift through the trash in the hopes of finding gems.

    Since being unable to hear new music due to the interference of the record industry (and its cronies BayTSP and congress), and the concentration of ownership by conglomerates like Clear Channel, all the radio stations are becoming the same play list. As there is no way for me to discover new music worth listening to, my purchases of albums dropped from 200+ per year in each of 1999 and 2000 to 1 album in 2002 and zero in 2003. I have about 700 CDs, enough CDs that I probably do not need to purchase any more for the rest of my life. Since the record industry is determined to prevent me from discovering new music, it looks like I already have a lifetime worth of music. From 200 albums per year to zero, the RIAA has decided that I do not need to buy any new music ever again.

    What could convince me to buy more albums? I would have to find stuff worth listening to. I enjoy classical, techno, jazz, new age, folk and stuff that gets called world. With the exception of 2 spanish language stations, my local radio stations only play country, pop and rap. The spanish language stations have more interesting music than the english language ones. Guess I need to brush up on my spanish.

    The current distribution system for music is BROKEN. Existing and proposed legislation just serves to enforce and prop up a distribution system that was (and still is) corrupt and crooked for the last 70 years. I chose to not support the corruption with my money. I chose to not support the crooked politicians who dance to the tune of the RIAA. It is my money and there is no law requiring me to subsidise their corruption, not that it would be a constitutionally valid one even should one exist.

    Unfortunately, the RIAA have painted themselves into a corner with the jihad they have declared against P2P. There is no possible way for them to admit their mistake without them losing billions in the RICO lawsuits that would result. Unfortunately for the RIAA, it is them or America, and and currently, the RIAA is winning the propaganda battle while subverting the justice system of the US. It is as corrupt and evil as if AlQeda was in charge of the White House.

  30. Copyright, in the right hands... by Dorf+on+Perl · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Copyright is good when it is in the right hands: those of a work's creator(s). Unfortunately, many artists have been/are being forced to enter the music market through the "loving" hands of the RIAA member companies, where they lose important rights ("voluntarily," of course).

    A work's creator, and only the creator, should have full control of the work's copyright for a strictly limited time, after which the work should enter the public domain. This is all just my opinion, and is an awful lot of shoulding, but there it is.

    Also, I haven't seen this suggestion here before, but if you want to try out different artists/genres/whatever, and if you live near a half-decent public library system with half-decent interlibrary loan services, you can check out CDs instead of (at the moment) illegally copying them.

    Just my 2 cents worth (for large values of 2).

  31. Re:It is not about sales but control by skarmor · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I agree... this news is not really shocking.. if your album is crap and people find out before they spend their hard earned money on it... guess what? they're reluctant to buy it.

    I'm not so sure that this is the case. The industry promotes the hell out of its crappy pop releases in order to sell more albums - everyone knows the quality of the songs before they make a purchase. The sad fact is that many people have no musical taste - they enjoy the manufactured pop stars and the tired chord progressions that form the base for modern rock.

    Unfortuneately this lack of taste is not limited only to children I've known many adults who listen to Britney Spears or Justin Timerberlake - and when I call them on it they claim that "it's irony". But I don't buy it - wannabe hipsters use irony as a way to legitimize their awful musical tastes.

    The point is that many people like crap. They will continue to buy whatever the pop music/MTV marketing machine tells them is cool this month (including CDs, clothing, video games, sports drinks, batteries and virtually every other product). Filesharing has virtually no affect on the buying habits of these people.

  32. I don't think that's how advertising works by xant · · Score: 3, Insightful

    As grandparent already pointed out, advertisers care that you are aware of their *product* and buy their *product*, not their advertising. Being aware of their advertising might actually be counterproductive.

    --
    It's rare that you're presented with a knob whose only two positions are Make History and Flee Your Glorious Destiny.
  33. Gaming is the reason that CD sales are down by adug · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I am not a music download data researcher, but I'll play one on /.

    Really, why should it take a research team from an esteemed college or institution to figure out the obvious?

    Games sales, console and computer, have increased dramatically in the period of time that CD sales have decreased.

    One need not be a genius to figure out that games cost money. The demographic that makes up the largest percentage of CD sales is the same demographic that makes up the largest percentage of CD sales.

    If I spend more money on games, I have less money to spend on CDs.

    Entertainment priorities are changing, more people are spending more of their discretionary incomes on gaming rather than music.

    Yes, it's that simple.

  34. Re:P2P doens't affect CD sales? DUMBEST MEME by iminplaya · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Did it ever, ever occur to you that you might be wrong? How in the world do you think Microsoft got to be the biggest software maker? Same goes for Adobe Do you honestly think they saturated the markets with SALES of their product? What do you think brought down the Soviet Unoin? How do you think the Americans finally got rid of Prohibition? In fact, how do you think American business, especially the entertainment business, got started? Did you ever see the numbers from a few years ago during the height of the downloading scene? Record companies were showing record profits. Sales AND downloading decreased about the same time. Piracy has always been a minor problem for Apple. What do they have? Maybe five percent of the market? Get your head out of you...er...the sand, and at least make a feeble effert to understand that maybe, just maybe, your business model is obsolete, and that you should adapt to the "new world order" of virtually free internet publishing. I find it really weird that you young kids cling to tightly to 19th century ideas. I always hoped that people younger than me would be a little more enlightened than me on how to treat others.

    By the way, unregulated P2P DID affect CD sales. They went UP. When everone gets their fat pipe, that too will help sales of music, if not CD's.

    --
    What?
  35. Re:P2P doens't affect CD sales? DUMBEST MEME by turnstyle · · Score: 4, Insightful
    "By the way, unregulated P2P DID affect CD sales. They went UP. When everone gets their fat pipe, that too will help sales of music, if not CD's"

    The only thing dumber than the notion that unregulated P2P doesn't affect CD sales is the notion that unregulated P2P actually helps them.

    Fat pipe, indeed.

    --
    Here's what I do: Bitty Browser & Andromeda
  36. Re:Serious question for Slashdotters by FrzrBrn · · Score: 4, Insightful
    While I agree that most of the people downloading music from the p2p services are simply looking for freebies, the legitimate gripe that the rest of have is that the labels making up the RIAA have done nothing to address the root of the problem for people who would otherwise buy music. Namely, CD's are too expensive for the majority of the crap that is out there, and most of the legitimate online music services are pathetic.

    Then consider the case of DVD's, as you mentioned. For slightly more than that overpriced CD, I can get not only a full length movie, but usually a whole other disc filled with behind the scenes info, out-takes, alternate endings, directors commentary, etc. It's not just about wanting something without having to pay for it, it's about getting a product at a reasonable price. In any market where people feel gouged, any reasonably priced alternative will flourish, even if that involves the creation of a black or grey market. Of course, getting something free will always be an attractive offer if the perceived consequences are minor.

    It's the strong-arm tactics of the RIAA, without the promotion of reasonable alternatives that earns them the label of "goon".

    --
    I read it on the Internet, it must be true!
  37. Re:Serious question for Slashdotters by 1arkhaine · · Score: 3, Insightful
    See? That has absolutely nothing to do with anything. If you don't like CDs, use iTunes! Shop online! There are alternatives to ripping artists off because you don't want to go the store and pay for it.

    Not for me there isn't. Not living in the US means I can't use itunes. So...now?

  38. Boycott RIAA affiliated bands by nnet · · Score: 3, Insightful
    I've said it once, and I'll say it again, Just Say No To RIAA Affiliated Bands/Labels.(R)

    By using your purchasing power, you decide the fate of these almost-Nazi-like corporations. Send them the message where it hurts them the most, The Bottom Line. By denying the RIAA your hard earned dollars, their shareholders suffer. And while they'll claim p2p responsible for further reductions in sales (as if the economy, CD prices, the thousands of stupid lawsuits that contribute to the price of a CD aren't enough), the truth will be shown that the above study, and other studies that have shown the RIAA incorrect, are in fact true, and the RIAA will be forced not only to rethink their PR strategy, but their ailing dinosaur of a business model.

    The number of independant bands/labels has increased a hell of a lot, and of course the quality of the music is superior simply because there isn't the corporate pressure to compromise musical integrity just to satisfy a shareholder. I discovered a progressive rock stream, progrock.com, via an article here on SlashDot regarding the current release of IceCast. This stream has been the main source of bands whose CDs I now purchase.

    I haven't purchased an RIAA affiliated CD in probably over 5 years because they haven't released anything worth buying, especially at US$20 a CD. During that time I've been purchasing independant CDs from non-RIAA affiliated labels, and I do so gladly knowing the artist receives more of the money, and the quality of music is far superior. The cost of these CDs is typically US$5-US$7 (not including S&H) cheaper than RIAA affiliated labels CDs too.

    As an independant artist, I offer my own original music in mp3 format, freely downloadable, and distributable, see the link in the sig below.

  39. Re:Serious question for Slashdotters by kardar · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Here is how I feel about it.

    If you can PURCHASE the media (song, movie, dvd) somwhere, anywhere... online store, for-fee download, brick and mortar store - if you can buy it somewhere, then you should really question why you are downloading it "illegally". It's pretty much as simple as that.

    You may have to search the internet for the label; you may have to purchase from the label directly - if that's the case, do it. If you think it's too expensive, if you can't afford to buy it, then don't. But that's no excuse to download it. Bascially, just don't download anything that is available for purchase somewhere. It's unethical. Unless, of course, it's one of those rare books or works of art that are available under a creative commons license or some other license that allows you to do that. But those are exceptions, not the rule.

    And this is sort of a catch-22, because prior to the "PC", young folks have often spent money on media (music, magazines, movies) that they couldn't really afford; it would be fair to say that the entertainment industry thrives on money collected from millions of people that really couldn't afford to give that money in the first place but were sort of suckered into it by the hype and the fanatacism that surrounds celebrity.

    So the "PC", a.k.a Redmond, has usurped the scam; replacing it with another one.

    But seriously, if you can buy it somewhere, don't download it. If you can't afford it, just be tough and don't download it either. Maybe if enough people don't buy because they can't afford, maybe the industry will recognize that and do something about it. Doubtful, but in any case, it's your money, and you shouldn't allow people to sucker you into spending it on something you can't afford. But that's not an excuse to try to circumvent the system, either.