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Ray Lewis To Break Madden Game Cover Curse?

Posted by simoniker on from the with-his-shoulderpads dept.

An anonymous reader writes "CNN/Money, in a column looking at the oft-discussed Madden cover curse, discloses that Ray Lewis of the Baltimore Raven will be on the cover of Electronic Arts' Madden NFL 2005 videogame, due out in August. For the past four years, the athlete on the cover of that game has had an injury plagued or shortened season, dating back to 2001, when Tennessee Titan Eddie George got knocked all around the field, including a particularly brutal hit by... Ray Lewis."

43 comments

  1. maybe they all get hurt by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Maybe it's not that much for the curse as for the fact that there is a good probability that ANY player will get hurt within the year.

    1. Re:maybe they all get hurt by mgs1000 · · Score: 1

      Good point. Has anybody ever heard of the Campbell's soup curse?

  2. Other curses by 100lbHand · · Score: 1

    Now if we could only get Billy G. on the Longhorn boxcover.

    --
    "I'm not high, just stupid" --JY
  3. Just so you all know... by Ieshan · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This is a statistical "phenomenon" called "Regression to the Mean". It goes like this.

    The player on the Cover of the Madden Game (or, as it's more widely known, the SI Cover) had a phenomenal last season - a standout year. Such a good season that he will help sell the product and foster media attention.

    The Average player in the NFL did not have such a good season - in fact, they had an Average season. Next season, it is far more likely that the player on the cover of the Madden game will have a season more like the Average season than he will a Standout Season. That's the way a normal distribution works.

    Any other explanation is just mumbo-jumbo. It's regression to the mean. I'm not sure why basic statistics seems so difficult to so many people, especially psycho sports fans: sports statisticians.

    1. Re:Just so you all know... by MBCook · · Score: 4, Funny
      You mean it's not some secret hit squad dressed as blue hedgehogs using some kind of alien technology powered by some kind of emerald, perhaps a chaos one, trying to remotely injure the player in an attempt to hurt the reputation of a competitor's product in any way to win?

      Could it at least be some kind of time/space annomoly controlled by a company famous for tape players men could use while walking? Or maybe a conspiriacy of high-jumping plumbers?

      Why isn't it ever the INTERESTING explanation?

      --
      Comment forecast: Bits of genius surrounded by a sea of mediocrity.
    2. Re:Just so you all know... by ComputerSlicer23 · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Don't forget the other important explaination. The plural of anecdote isn't data. It's just like all my friends whom are convinced they are ahead after years of gambling. While it might be slightly true for one of them, even that is highly unlikely unless one of them cheats the house.

      People look for those people to have bad years. As a matter of fact, Randy Moss was in there somewhere, and he didn't have such a bad year when he was on the cover (it wasn't as spectacular as his rookie season, but as a receiver it was still a very good statistical year by nearly any measure). Also the SI Cover curse is completely separate from the "Madden Curse".

      The SI Cover curse goes back several decades I believe, and is more a matter of being anecdotal. As I recall Lance Armstrong's been on the cover several times during his Tour de France runs, and keeps winning somehow. Normally, it is associated with college football.

      People never remember the ones who don't match the pattern. Just like no one remembers all the times they lost $50 at the casino, they can just tell you about the one time left $1,200 up.

      Kirby

    3. Re:Just so you all know... by Aerion · · Score: 1

      Of course "any other explanation is mumbo-jumbo" but it's still a mildly interesting phenomenon.

      And certainly a player who has had a Standout season will likely have a more Average season the following year, but the point of the Madden Curse is that those players who have had Standout seasons who appear on the cover of Madden tend to have really, really bad (or really, really short) seasons the following year.

      We all know about probability and statistics, all this is in good fun. (Life's no fun if everything follows a normal distribution.)

    4. Re:Just so you all know... by dickiedoodles · · Score: 1

      I don't know a whole lot about statistics and I know even less about american football but surely the players skill comes into it somewhat meaning someone who is good enough to have a good season last year is more likely to have a good season last year then someone who only had an average season last year?

      --
      In Soviet Russia Slashdot cliches use you
    5. Re:Just so you all know... by Ieshan · · Score: 1

      You're 100% right.

      But the point is, a player is likely to have an average year as determined by his skill and a wide variety of other factors. If his Average year puts him within the 90% of all Football players, then he will have quite a few seasons where he is better than 98% of all players, and a few where is he better than 75%, or whatever it is the math works out to.

      But the point is, the year he's on the cover of the magazine or box, he's had a phenomenal previous year. It's likely that he'll perform once again at his more typical 90% level or his more typical 80% level, or whatever that level happens to be, and have an "average" season.

    6. Re:Just so you all know... by FatEric2000 · · Score: 1

      Randy Moss was not on the cover of Madden. He was on NFL 2k2 cover, his partner in crime Dante Culpepper was on the Madden 2002 cover the same year and blew out his knee and had an overall awful season, after blowing up the year before.

    7. Re:Just so you all know... by Primis · · Score: 1

      Any other explanation is just mumbo-jumbo.

      Yet another example of a math person having their head so far up their ass they don't even have a clue what they're talking about.

      If you really knew anything whatsoever about the topic being discussed, you'd realize that the cover "jinx" has nothing to do with Good vs Bad seasons, and everything to do with the player on the cover suffering a serious-to-catastrophic injury that leaves them out for most of the season, or even puts their career in jeopardy.

      I'm not sure why basic statistics seems so difficult to so many people, especially psycho sports fans: sports statisticians.

      And I'm not sure how math people can get their head so far up their asses without the use of mechanical devices. Guess we'll never know will we?...

      Do everyone a favor, and next time if you don't really know what you're talking about, don't chime in. K thnx bye.

      -- Primis.

    8. Re:Just so you all know... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
      Yet another example of a math person having their head so far up their ass they don't even have a clue what they're talking about.
      Wrong. He is not a "math person". If he were he would understand that this is not explained by regression towards the mean. Take your petty anti-intellectual bigotry elsewhere jackass.
    9. Re:Just so you all know... by Shant3030 · · Score: 1

      This is a statistical "phenomenon" called "Regression to the Mean". It goes like this.

      Ok dork...

      Their is nothing scientific about it, its just a strange thing that happens.

      Madden 2002 star Daunte Culpepper, quarterback of the Minnesota Vikings, suffered a knee injury, and his team ended up with a losing season.

      Madden 2003 cover figure Marshall Faulk, the star running back of the St. Louis Rams, went on to a sub-par season.

      Madden 2004, featured Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Vick, who broke his leg in the preseason and missed most of the regular season.

      Stop trying to act smart, this has nothing do with previous season performance relative to the next season. Players or teams on the SI cover who are predicted to win their respective championships, etc never do. People on the Madden cover sometimes suffer season ending injuries or have subpar seasons.

      Know the story before you start acting like a stats whiz.

      --
      100% Insightful
  4. amazing by Terminal+Saint · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Wow! ALL the way back to 2001, huh? that sure is long enough to establish a pattern...

    --
    It's sad when choosing an installation directory on your own qualifies you as an "advanced user."
    1. Re:amazing by heliocentric · · Score: 0, Redundant

      IIRC John Madden Football games date back to 1991 (I think it was released in 1991 for the first version, but I've seen it referred to as the 1990 version). However, all of the games released from the start until 2001 had Madden's gigantic head on the cover, not a player.

      I can get players from 2001 on, with their "issues" of the following season:

      '04: Mike Vick (broken leg)
      '03: Marshall Faulk (ankle)
      '02: Daunte Culpepper (crappy season, just a bad rating, not a true injury as the curse seems to claim to me)
      '01: Eddie George (crappy season again, low yardage per attempt)

      Note, for the 2001 game it was released in 2000 for those of you trying to match this info. to a calendar.

      --
      Wheeeee
    2. Re:amazing by Primis · · Score: 1

      '04: Mike Vick (broken leg)
      '03: Marshall Faulk (ankle)
      '02: Daunte Culpepper (crappy season, just a bad rating, not a true injury as the curse seems to claim to me)
      '01: Eddie George (crappy season again, low yardage per attempt)

      Not true. Both Culpepper and George played throwugh (or tried playing through) injuries they probably shouldn't have in both cases, and basically got the living crap beat out of them in both seasons.

      It's a little more-puzzling even when you consider that these are all guys who had not been prone to injury previously.

      -- Primis.

  5. Make it like Tecmo by nic+barajas · · Score: 1

    The cover art for my copy of Tecmo Super Bowl (Genesis) is a Cowboys quarterback - but I very much doubt that it's a player that really exists. If the Madden franchise wasn't so money-hungry, they could do that too, and this works in both the teams' favor and the franchise. They could pick a dominate team to grace the cover, selling copies of the game with only the risk of the similar SI curse.

    In my opinion, the Tecmo series of football games were among the best ever.

    1. Re:Make it like Tecmo by Ieshan · · Score: 1

      You're right about that Cowboys QB not existing. Aikman wore number 8, and he was the QB for Dallas in '92 / '93.

    2. Re:Make it like Tecmo by SamSim · · Score: 1

      My original Genesis copy of John Madden American Football - that's right, the original, I believe it's from 1992 - has, if I remember correctly, no recognisable American football players on the cover, just Madden himself.

      --
      qntm.org
  6. Awesome! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The team I follow plays the Ravens twice a year - an injured Lewis would mean an easier path to the division title.

    1. Re:Awesome! by Ty_Webb · · Score: 1

      Steelers?
      (singing) Here we go... (/singing)

  7. There's more to it by AvantLegion · · Score: 4, Interesting
    Any other explanation is just mumbo-jumbo.

    No, this is mumbo-jumbo.

    If your theory were valid, a few things should happen:

    A "regressing" player should find himself having an "average" season by his numbers. He came off an exceptional year, yes. Might not be able to repeat it, yes. But what happens is we're having players who aren't just having average years, but they are having worse statistical years than any other year in their career. Players are not equal, and some players will typically be higher on the distribution than others. They each, however, have their own statistical averages over their career.

    Eddie George, for example, has played 8 seasons in the NFL. He ran for more than 1,000 yards in every season except one - his Madden cover season.

    Daunte Culpepper's worst stastistical year as a starter? His Madden cover.

    We're not talking about players coming off great seasons and returning to their average performances. We're talking about players suffering their single worst seasons as pros, after which they return to closer to their previous averages.\

    1. Re:There's more to it by Ieshan · · Score: 1, Insightful

      //sigh.

      From the article.

      For those keeping score at home, this will be the 15th Madden game - so the curse has stuck on roughly 29 percent of the games.

      Notice how the article carefully describes the last four seasons. Notice how you've only produced two of fifteen possible examples. TWENTY NINE PERCENT! For those keeping track, for 71% of cover-guys, the "hex" has no effect!

      Not only that, but half of the examples provided by any information on the source find something, *anything* wrong. The team suffers. The player suffers. Something terrible happens in the organization. The bottom line is, I bet we could find similar cases for any random occurance.

      How about this. If you want, we'll correlate my slashdot posts with bad weather. I get to use the entire globe, I'll bet you that 29% of the time, whenever I post, the next day it's 20 degrees cooler than it was the day before and raining in at least one part of the world.

    2. Re:There's more to it by AvantLegion · · Score: 4, Insightful
      For those keeping score at home, this will be the 15th Madden game - so the curse has stuck on roughly 29 percent of the games.

      for 71% of cover-guys, the "hex" has no effect!

      Oh man. Are you gonna feel real stupid in a minute...

      Guess who was on the cover from 1991 to 2000?

      JOHN MADDEN himself!

      Players have only been on the cover from 2001-2004. And I didn't mention Marshall Faulk, who fits right in with George and Culpepper. 2003 was Faulk's second worst season in 11 years of pro ball. Easily below his "average". And Vick missed 2/3rds of his cover season with injury.

      Let's see... 1.. 2... 3.. 4...

      Yup, every PLAYER that's been on the cover.

      Come on, a little research before you post.

      And what brainiac modded that insightful? Wow.

    3. Re:There's more to it by AvantLegion · · Score: 1
      Typo: 2002 for Faulk, not 2003.

    4. Re:There's more to it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Congratulations! You are the WINNER of Saturdays most boring cunt competition!

    5. Re:There's more to it by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, this is mumbo-jumbo. Do you know the definition of "mean" as used in regression to the mean? It' the average. If a player has a season much better than his/her average then there must be a corresponding worse season or the mean moves up. Sheesh. Is it that hard?

    6. Re:There's more to it by Ieshan · · Score: 1

      I copy/pasted that directly out of the article.

      Four cases. Every player? Of four cases? //sigh.

    7. Re:There's more to it by Shant3030 · · Score: 1

      High Five! Great post!!!!! If I had any mod points , I'd give you all five!

      --
      100% Insightful
  8. This isn't about average vs. non-average by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The cover player has generally had a major injury (worse than average) or had their season cut short. They didn't just play average the next year. There's apparently a similar thing with the Campbell's Chunky Soup athletes too.

  9. Conspiracy by superpulpsicle · · Score: 1

    It's a conspiracy, EA gets player X on the cover of madden. Player X somehow gets hurt, and his schedule becomes wide open... making him more available to more advertisments, events and interviews.

    Pro athletes do more commercials during the off-season and injury time than any other time of the year.

  10. This just in... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Lara Croft diagnosed with breast cancer.

    Gary Coleman found covered with urine in plastic bag.

    Duke Nukem still MIA.

  11. Simple Explanation by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It seems the most obvious explanation is the one that nobody has touched on.

    Football is a violent and brutal sport. It's a sport where entire teams - if not leagues - mark a specific target for obliteration and do anything (sometimes underhanded and unethical) to put an early end to that player's season or career. This is pretty commonly known in football.

    It would make sense that a prima-donna gracing the cover of a popular videogame, can of soup, box of wheaties or sports illustrated cover would make a great target for all the other players to sack and put in the infirmary.

    It's a sensible explanation in the way that a president is more likely to be marked for assassination than, say, your average joe-sixpack or soccer mom.

  12. Furthering the "curse"... by ILL+Robinson · · Score: 1

    Of course, now that the Madden curse is becoming more well known (true or not), there's the likelihood that these players can become targeted, either physically by other players or by the public putting them on a "Madden-watch", waiting for that fateful day where the curse plays out. Which all further propagates the idea of the curse (and yes, I just played my own part in that).

  13. Re:Just so you all know... You need a Stats lesson by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The assumption of homoscedasticity is false.
    Regression to the mean requires a normal distribution and this is not the case.
    Your assumption would require that every player have an equal chance (ie, has equal skill) of having a "great season".
    Players that have one great season tend to have several great season.
    Lies, damed lies, and statistics.
    Statistics makes and requires assumptions that are often false.

  14. Lewis is done by tennistoad · · Score: 1

    He minus well just sit on the bench this season!! the only thing he's going to break next season is a bone or two..( to bad it will be his own).. No person can break the Madden curse!! Just like when you play the game and you try to run out the clock for the win the madden curse makes you fumble and the stupid video game gods throw a 98yard bomb to win the game with 1 sec left.. Oh yeah and buy the way why don't they put the ambulance back in the game.. I loved it when it would run over everyone to get to the injured player!!

    1. Re:Lewis is done by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wow, how did you put "minus" instead of "might as"?

    2. Re:Lewis is done by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      cause I went to school in massachuettes!!!!

  15. Another hypothesis based on reason by gtshafted · · Score: 3, Interesting
    I could be wrong but has anyone thought of any psychological reasons for this? Being that this "curse" is pretty well publicized - it could be another case of "self ful-filling prophecy", or a better one: Other "average" players get jealous of the cover man (being the madden cover is a really big deal in terms of rep - since nfl players really like the game, when I was at EA we gave them advanced copies) and just decide to hit the bastard harder than ussual... (Rage and jealously does play a factor in sports) - remember the Curt Shilling / Doug Glanville incident?

    http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/stark_jayson/120128 3.html

    1. Re:Another hypothesis based on reason by Primis · · Score: 1

      (Rage and jealously does play a factor in sports) - remember the Curt Shilling / Doug Glanville incident?

      Well the Schiling/Glanville case can also easily be explained away by the fact that they were teammates, and Glanville got a LOT of time to study Curt's pitching up close and personal.

      This is why it's often-times much easier to hit against a former teammate in baseball -- you've seen hime day in and day out, you know all the pitches in his arsenal, and you know his tendencies.

      -- Primis.

  16. NFL and NHL both equally prone by michael+path · · Score: 1

    2004: Dany Heatley - Killed friend in car accident, missed almost entire regular season.
    2003: Jarome Iginla - Mediocre start to season, managed to finish with a respectable 35 goals, but was -10 (down from +27).
    2002: Mario Lemieux - Played only 24 games.
    2001: Owen Nolan - Missed nearly 30 games, did not qualify for All Star game.
    2000: Chris Pronger - A truly amazing anomoly, winning the NHL MVP award (Hart Trophy)