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Phone As Your Next Computer?
Octagon Most writes "Newsweek magazine ponders if a mobile phone will be 'Your Next Computer' and enlists Frog Design to mock-up an 'Integrated Fusion Device'. With mobile phones selling at a rate of 650 million per year and climbing, there are already three times as many phones in use as personal computers. PalmOne's Jeff Hawkins predicts that devices like the Treo will become the new centers of our digital lives as millions of people own phones but not computers."
Someone at Palm predicting their device will become the center of our lives.
Imagine the /. effect from that many devices
Evolution or ID?
"One hundred nineteen hours, 41 minutes and 16 seconds. That's the amount of time Adam Rappoport, a high-school senior in Philadelphia, has spent talking into his silver Verizon LG phone since he got it as a gift last Chanukah. That's not even the full extent of his habit. He also spends countless additional hours using his phone's Internet connection to check sports scores, download new ringtones (at a buck apiece) and send short messages to his friends' phones, even in the middle of class. "I know the touch-tone pad on the phone better than I know a keyboard," he says. "I'm a phone guy."
So this kid spends an average of 1025 minutes a MONTH on his cell phone? That rivals most business people.. And I would hate to be the parent who pays that bill including the ungodly amount of ringtones that he probably also already has.
Hmmm.
Seriously. Screen size? Input? Output? Assorted other sundry capabilities?
Phones will not replace computers as they currently stand unless our technology begins to approach near Star Trekian levels (which I'm not entirely ruling out, but won't be for a little while at least). Sure, *some* people might use phones instead of computers, but that's because if they used computers they wouldn't be using computers to their full capacity. They just need an addressbook and a few stupid games anyway, so let them have their PDA-phone. Me, I'll keep my computer.
With VoIP services making inroads, and broadband becoming much more popular, perhaps he should have been asking whether your computer will be your next phone.
I have three "computers". One is a 1ghz laptop, the second is a desktop 486 (which works just fine for email, IRC etc) I also have a Nokia 6600, which is a series 60 (symbian) phone. It has a 100mhz arm processor powering it, and takes MMC cards for extra storage. It too can do email (IMAP or POP), irc, ssh, and also browse the web (using Opera). Since you can program for it with C++ or Java, there's not a lot you can't then get it to do For a lot of people, it almost does everything they want of a computer (writing documents on it is a bit icky, even with a bluetooth keyboard. Won't be long until someone's done a good word processor for it. It already supports printing via BlueTooth). So, I'd say it's pretty likely that many people (non tech types) will quickly get smart phones like (or just beyond) mine, and just use those
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My cellphone offers the absolute slowest access to e-mail imagineable. I've never tried to pull up a website on it, it can only hold a few lines of text. I have seen some Clie` models that could possibly replace a person's need for a laptop but a PC in the home, I think not.
I boycott signatures
In any case, until hands shrink or eyes focus more tightly or web sites start publishing for 100x100 displays, there are going to be big monitors and keyboards that will likely be connected to big boxes of some kind for the forseeable future.
This is basically already true outside of the US where home broadband and home PCs are much less widespread than in North America. This is due to many reasons IMHO, from a different work ethic --where you don't bring work home with you, and thus you have less reason for a home PC-- to cost to lifestyle differences to infrastructure (simply put, GSM phones are much more reliable and sometimes cheaper than regular PSTN lines).
:-)
This extends to other products as well: PDAs and portable game consoles are also much less common than cell phones and phones are taking over those niches too. Nokia is a much bigger threat to Windows than Linux internationally
So, the article is not really news, it's just US being behind the curve on this one.
Integrated Fusion Device? Well, I guess they'll need it to power all that crap.
My finances are already basically all tied up in my PDA; just about any personal application development or service rollout I consider has to take into account access from a PDA, too. It's not as powerful nor can it handle complex tasks as well as my computer, but it's an extremely valuable data entry device and it can handle basic computing tasks quite handily. In the past, people ran an entire small business on a computer with less power.
--Matthew
I think that mobile phones could well become the "killer app" for Grid technology. By "outsourcing" processor intensive tasks to a powerful server owned by the phone company and then seamlessly integrating results returned by that server, each mobile phone could effectively be made just as powerful as a desktop machine (well, in a few years time, anyway).
Of course, you have obvious constraints like screen size, but if you coupled voice technology with the phone (audio being sent to server and processed there, over 3G or 4G link) then you could end up with something not too unlike a Star Trek computer!
USER: Hello Mr. Phone! Can you tell me what the weather is like in Las Vegas, please?
MR. PHONE: Yes! It will be 87 degrees and a little windy! By the way, you're running low on credit - want to top up?
A phone that works and it confortable to use, A computer that works and is comfortable to use. They do not/need not be the same device. A cell phone is too damn small to be very useful as a computer. Hell I think they're too damn small to be useful phones anymore. They get you by until you get somewhere with proper facilities.
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If you had a phone/PDA combo that could plug into commonly-available docks, like a laptop dock, you might be on to something. Add in wired networking (which will always be faster than wireless, by the nature of signals) and extra, long-term storage, some good speakers for gravy.
For now, I have a PDA (Handera 330, sweet little machine), and I love and use it... but I'm typing this in on a desktop, 'cause I code for a living, and coding on a PDA, while possible, is painful, even with a plug-in keyboard.
PHEM - party like it's 1997-2003!
The chairman of IBM, in 1949, predicted that the "world could use maybe five computers".
I have five cell phones.
So this kid spends an average of 1025 minutes a MONTH on his cell phone?
Why is that so weird? Think about it. You're being overwhelmed by a large number. First, divide 1025 by 60 to see that its 19 hours. There. Already that doesn't sound so bad. 19 hours a month. Divide by four. Round up. That's five hours a week.
NEWSFLASH! High school student talks on phone for five hours a week! Parents and community amazed! Film at 11!
C'mon. Most, if not all, of those minutes were probably used in the evenings, or on weekends, when they're unmetered anyway. Since when was this excessive phone usage for an eighteen year old? Just because its a celphone, not a regular cordless phone?
I mean, really.
You're special forces then? That's great! I just love your olympics!
My cell phone can barely be called a phone based upon it's service track and they want to make it my next PC?
While I sincerely doubt that phones will be the next PC, I do think that you'll see some merging between the various carry on devices. Imagine for a moment, something about the size of a standard Palm Pilot or PocketPC device. It's fully connected to the Internet via wireless, has a built in harddrive, and a pencil thin pull out "handset" that talks to the main unit via Bluetooth.
This device would let you check your email, store extra files (which can be synced via bluetooth), keeps track of your calendar and alerts, and would allow an exchange of business cards via wireless connections (IR or Bluetooth). When a phone call comes in, it will buzz until you remove the handset (fitted similar to a the stylus of a typical Palm) and press the accept button. Notes can be entered via handwriting recognition, or a virtual keyboard projected onto a surface.
Now you may not find this device tremendously useful. But it would be a God-send for people who carry a Cell Phone, PDA, BlackBerry, and Laptop.
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I've been using the Treo 600 for a few months now (I used the 180 before that). It *has* replaced a number of the functions that were previously provided by my desktop. I use it for email and a lot of web browsing (mostly news sites). I've started reading "e-books" on it (never did that on the desktop, actually), and it provides about 100% of my contact tracking and calendar functionality.
:)), but that's about the only thing I *have* to go back ot the pc for.
Just having a simple text editor with me at all times is huge. I've also got an ssh client running, so there's basically nothing I can't do in the area of remote admin.
It runs moria!
I've found that I'm in front of the computer significantly less now. I still use it for development (eclipse won't run on the treo
who's moderating the meta-moderators?
Lets not kid ourselves here ... the "convenience-factor" is the issue that will tip the scales. The buying public really only cares if its going to make their lives easier.
My last job was managing a wireless retail store - and although I happen to drool over specs, most people think benefits, not features.
I and many others during the .com high predicted this was comming.
Why is IT viewed as a commidty? Where is the innovation and importance? Innovation in IT is alive and kicking, just on a smaller scale.
Mainframe lovers trashed the microcomputer or PC and even RMS viewed them as toys and focused gnu on "real"systems.
Funny how people still do this today with computers. I mean pc computers obviously.
The microprocessor gave rise to micro's and the internet/networking gave rise to cells.
But like high end servers and mainframes are still around the same is true with desktops. They are not going away. Rather the market will shift to them and keep them around for background stuff. On your desk you will probably have them for years and use your cell however for IM and some email.
I think their may be some hope for sun after all and problems for Microsoft. Java is going to be HOTT real soon. All the software companies will target phones and use the micro-edition of java or perl embedded.
Perhaps MS may be the next IBM, The former monopolist giant.
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At this point, you have got to stop thinking of a computer as a single defined device. Even if you ignore mainframes and restrict yourself to the PC-compatible market, people use computers for many things. Cellphoneas are never going to be web-servers. They are never going to be full-blown geek machines - you are not going to program on them. But probably 90% of users never do anything like that.
The fact of interest is that CPU power is no longer a restriction - a cellphone has enough oomph to run most applciations that mist users run. Where it lacks, as you point out, is input devices, output devices, and to some extent storage.
Input on most cellphones is frankly awful for anything other than dialling numbers or very simple menu driven systems. Output on that tiny screen is poor, but not that bad. In fact, if the possibility of it beaing read on a cellphone screen stops people sending HTML email, I'll count that a win. Likewise, storage is enough for most peoples text needs, but will be rapidly drained by images, even still.
So the "killer feature" to make these work is better input. Of course, one day one day true voice recognition will arrive, delivered by a flight of pigs. Until that porcine dawn, people will keep trying to find other input mechanisms that work. Until they do, I think the proposal by the OP is, so some extent, wishful thinking.
Consciousness is an illusion caused by an excess of self consciousness.
They go for $29.99 because they suck and they're old news. Dead product.
Check out the Treo600 from PalmOne (formerly Handspring). It has a keyboard too and runs Palm OS5. Combine this with Sprint's flat-rate (10 bucks a month) high speed data, and you enter a whole new world Beave.
I don't work for PalmOne, but I have had a Treo600 since last October, and I'm here to tell you, while it doesn't replace my computers, I can run VNC on it and CONTROL every computer I use. And telnet, and SMS, and IM, and e-mail, and play cool games. And take pictures and video. And slide in a 512MB SD card. And did I mention it plays MP3s, WAVs, OGGs, **AND** Shoutcast streams? Awesome sound quality. At least as good as an iPod. And it's a kickass phone AND it fits in my freaking pocket! It rocks. You have no idea.
And I'm a "professionial." White-collar type. Not some zit-faced hip-hop kid.
One of the main things driving mobile phone sales is, of course, fashion. Especially among the younger consumers.
And the problem with most of these crossover devices is that they are Huge.
I know a few people with these Nokias and these T-mobile-thingies, and they just look ridiculous.
Now look at Japan.
As soon as we have normal-sized phones that do all the e-communicating and surfing we normally use our computers for, without looking stupid, then we'll see them replace PDAs for most people.
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Convergence devices are crap.
I'd rather see a standard for wireless personal data network access and portable storage -- and let individual devices miniaturize and specialize.
E.g.
I don't want a camera phone with a bad camera interface, crappy resolution, limited features, tiny memory and nonexistant output choices.
Instead I'd like to be able to buy a wireless data storage device: HD, Flash, Removable media, whatever - it doesn't matter. Just an independent device that stores data and can wirelessly transmit it to devices that need it over a common protocol (bluetooth would be fine).
Then I can buy a phone that grabs my contact list, ringtones and games from there. No more having content locked to a service provider or a device. Then I can buy a PDA which uses the portable storage for apps, data, contact list, etc. Then I can buy an MP3 player, a digital camera, etc, etc.
I don't need my screen and battery life being sucked out of my phone when I'm just listening to MP3s. I don't need PDA processing burning through my battery when I just want to use the phone. I don't need a device which tries to wrap one bad interface around a half dozen sepcialized functions.
Furthermore, I want to be able to take my mp3 player or my phone into the gym, or the corporate offices of my clients, while leaving the camera functionality in the car so I don't violate the camera bans.
Not to mention the benefit of finally being free of the nonportability of data. No more duplicating contact lists to new devices. No more shuffling CF cards between the MP3 player, the camera, and the PDA. No more waiting for the right device to show up with the right storage solution.
Of course, I'm not holding my breath.
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