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Phone As Your Next Computer?
Octagon Most writes "Newsweek magazine ponders if a mobile phone will be 'Your Next Computer' and enlists Frog Design to mock-up an 'Integrated Fusion Device'. With mobile phones selling at a rate of 650 million per year and climbing, there are already three times as many phones in use as personal computers. PalmOne's Jeff Hawkins predicts that devices like the Treo will become the new centers of our digital lives as millions of people own phones but not computers."
Someone at Palm predicting their device will become the center of our lives.
Imagine the /. effect from that many devices
Evolution or ID?
"One hundred nineteen hours, 41 minutes and 16 seconds. That's the amount of time Adam Rappoport, a high-school senior in Philadelphia, has spent talking into his silver Verizon LG phone since he got it as a gift last Chanukah. That's not even the full extent of his habit. He also spends countless additional hours using his phone's Internet connection to check sports scores, download new ringtones (at a buck apiece) and send short messages to his friends' phones, even in the middle of class. "I know the touch-tone pad on the phone better than I know a keyboard," he says. "I'm a phone guy."
So this kid spends an average of 1025 minutes a MONTH on his cell phone? That rivals most business people.. And I would hate to be the parent who pays that bill including the ungodly amount of ringtones that he probably also already has.
Hmmm.
Seriously. Screen size? Input? Output? Assorted other sundry capabilities?
Phones will not replace computers as they currently stand unless our technology begins to approach near Star Trekian levels (which I'm not entirely ruling out, but won't be for a little while at least). Sure, *some* people might use phones instead of computers, but that's because if they used computers they wouldn't be using computers to their full capacity. They just need an addressbook and a few stupid games anyway, so let them have their PDA-phone. Me, I'll keep my computer.
With VoIP services making inroads, and broadband becoming much more popular, perhaps he should have been asking whether your computer will be your next phone.
For all practical purposes, mobiles have already become many people's secondary computer at least. For me at least, the mobile has become my defacto "little black book," primary timepiece, alarm clock, egg timer, to-do list, stock ticker, IM device, etc.
Voice mail on the mobile is actully higher-priority than my e-mail (and spam free for the moment). I think people's overall relationship with their mobiles may even be deeper than with their computers--especially in the world out there beyond slashdot.
"...all the labours of the ages, all the devotion, all the inspiration, all the noonday brightness..." yada yada
I have three "computers". One is a 1ghz laptop, the second is a desktop 486 (which works just fine for email, IRC etc) I also have a Nokia 6600, which is a series 60 (symbian) phone. It has a 100mhz arm processor powering it, and takes MMC cards for extra storage. It too can do email (IMAP or POP), irc, ssh, and also browse the web (using Opera). Since you can program for it with C++ or Java, there's not a lot you can't then get it to do For a lot of people, it almost does everything they want of a computer (writing documents on it is a bit icky, even with a bluetooth keyboard. Won't be long until someone's done a good word processor for it. It already supports printing via BlueTooth). So, I'd say it's pretty likely that many people (non tech types) will quickly get smart phones like (or just beyond) mine, and just use those
This post will enter the public domain 70 years after my death, unless Disney buys another extension.
My cellphone offers the absolute slowest access to e-mail imagineable. I've never tried to pull up a website on it, it can only hold a few lines of text. I have seen some Clie` models that could possibly replace a person's need for a laptop but a PC in the home, I think not.
I boycott signatures
Artist Howard Hallis came up with The Mini as a concept for such a device.
Oddly, he created this work of "art" in the medium of "lenticular," those tilt-the-page things to see a different image.
Still, I wouldn't mind such a device.
You mean... there's actually a world outside of this fascinating website? Continue... please.
That's great! Since, I cancelled my cell phones services (because I got sick of people getting a hold of me when I was trying to be OUT) I've been using it only as a address and phone book keeper. I'm excited about other useful features for my out of service cell phone.
Thank you!
that I have been interested in for some time. I have done a lot of reading on wearable interfaces etc, but the mobile phone seems to be a prime unintrusive platform for 24/7 computing. Some phones are coming along with cameras and the like, but it still seems a long way off. I still use text messaging to communicate via AIM on my phone. I think this has the potential to be come a reality with the miniaturization of hardware. Sony Ericsson seems to be leading the industry in putting more computing power into cell phones with Bluetooth, cameras and the like.
"Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?"
In any case, until hands shrink or eyes focus more tightly or web sites start publishing for 100x100 displays, there are going to be big monitors and keyboards that will likely be connected to big boxes of some kind for the forseeable future.
This is basically already true outside of the US where home broadband and home PCs are much less widespread than in North America. This is due to many reasons IMHO, from a different work ethic --where you don't bring work home with you, and thus you have less reason for a home PC-- to cost to lifestyle differences to infrastructure (simply put, GSM phones are much more reliable and sometimes cheaper than regular PSTN lines).
:-)
This extends to other products as well: PDAs and portable game consoles are also much less common than cell phones and phones are taking over those niches too. Nokia is a much bigger threat to Windows than Linux internationally
So, the article is not really news, it's just US being behind the curve on this one.
Integrated Fusion Device? Well, I guess they'll need it to power all that crap.
My finances are already basically all tied up in my PDA; just about any personal application development or service rollout I consider has to take into account access from a PDA, too. It's not as powerful nor can it handle complex tasks as well as my computer, but it's an extremely valuable data entry device and it can handle basic computing tasks quite handily. In the past, people ran an entire small business on a computer with less power.
--Matthew
I think that mobile phones could well become the "killer app" for Grid technology. By "outsourcing" processor intensive tasks to a powerful server owned by the phone company and then seamlessly integrating results returned by that server, each mobile phone could effectively be made just as powerful as a desktop machine (well, in a few years time, anyway).
Of course, you have obvious constraints like screen size, but if you coupled voice technology with the phone (audio being sent to server and processed there, over 3G or 4G link) then you could end up with something not too unlike a Star Trek computer!
USER: Hello Mr. Phone! Can you tell me what the weather is like in Las Vegas, please?
MR. PHONE: Yes! It will be 87 degrees and a little windy! By the way, you're running low on credit - want to top up?
A phone that works and it confortable to use, A computer that works and is comfortable to use. They do not/need not be the same device. A cell phone is too damn small to be very useful as a computer. Hell I think they're too damn small to be useful phones anymore. They get you by until you get somewhere with proper facilities.
Shop smart, Shop S-Mart.
If you had a phone/PDA combo that could plug into commonly-available docks, like a laptop dock, you might be on to something. Add in wired networking (which will always be faster than wireless, by the nature of signals) and extra, long-term storage, some good speakers for gravy.
For now, I have a PDA (Handera 330, sweet little machine), and I love and use it... but I'm typing this in on a desktop, 'cause I code for a living, and coding on a PDA, while possible, is painful, even with a plug-in keyboard.
PHEM - party like it's 1997-2003!
The chairman of IBM, in 1949, predicted that the "world could use maybe five computers".
I have five cell phones.
So this kid spends an average of 1025 minutes a MONTH on his cell phone?
Why is that so weird? Think about it. You're being overwhelmed by a large number. First, divide 1025 by 60 to see that its 19 hours. There. Already that doesn't sound so bad. 19 hours a month. Divide by four. Round up. That's five hours a week.
NEWSFLASH! High school student talks on phone for five hours a week! Parents and community amazed! Film at 11!
C'mon. Most, if not all, of those minutes were probably used in the evenings, or on weekends, when they're unmetered anyway. Since when was this excessive phone usage for an eighteen year old? Just because its a celphone, not a regular cordless phone?
I mean, really.
You're special forces then? That's great! I just love your olympics!
My cell phone can barely be called a phone based upon it's service track and they want to make it my next PC?
While I sincerely doubt that phones will be the next PC, I do think that you'll see some merging between the various carry on devices. Imagine for a moment, something about the size of a standard Palm Pilot or PocketPC device. It's fully connected to the Internet via wireless, has a built in harddrive, and a pencil thin pull out "handset" that talks to the main unit via Bluetooth.
This device would let you check your email, store extra files (which can be synced via bluetooth), keeps track of your calendar and alerts, and would allow an exchange of business cards via wireless connections (IR or Bluetooth). When a phone call comes in, it will buzz until you remove the handset (fitted similar to a the stylus of a typical Palm) and press the accept button. Notes can be entered via handwriting recognition, or a virtual keyboard projected onto a surface.
Now you may not find this device tremendously useful. But it would be a God-send for people who carry a Cell Phone, PDA, BlackBerry, and Laptop.
Javascript + Nintendo DSi = DSiCade
Pardon me, as I'm sure I'll get modded as -1 Neo-Luddite, but I hate cellphones more than anything in the world. Although it is a bit of a contradiction that I carry one, it's only because I have to. I'm just sick of people spending more time choosing a different ringtone for every person they know than they do talking to those people.
I just think that that there's better things to do than think over new ways to be rude in public...like surfing the web on a 1x1 screen, taking lo-res pictures, or just trying to get attention
As Sun says, the network is the computer. We're not going to have phones as computers until the phones are on the Net, and I don't mean 2400 baud GPRS.
Give me, in a Treo package (i.e. with thumbboard), a 320x480 screen (like a Tungsten, not a 160x160 like the Treo 600), high-speed Internet, and a video recorder with sound (because the failure of the mainstream media demands that the citizenry does its own reporting). Give me that now. Don't wait for the translation. Don't wait for 1X EV-DV.
I've been using the Treo 600 for a few months now (I used the 180 before that). It *has* replaced a number of the functions that were previously provided by my desktop. I use it for email and a lot of web browsing (mostly news sites). I've started reading "e-books" on it (never did that on the desktop, actually), and it provides about 100% of my contact tracking and calendar functionality.
:)), but that's about the only thing I *have* to go back ot the pc for.
Just having a simple text editor with me at all times is huge. I've also got an ssh client running, so there's basically nothing I can't do in the area of remote admin.
It runs moria!
I've found that I'm in front of the computer significantly less now. I still use it for development (eclipse won't run on the treo
who's moderating the meta-moderators?
... but if it's the "center of my digital life", it has to be able to play games at least as well as the next gen GBA, fit a gig or two of MP3's and play them back (while I play my GBA type games), have a nice web browser (guess I'll need an external monitor jack) read email (could do that even on a small LCD screen), send email (voice recognition or external keyboard that stays home with the monitor), and be able to do all the PDA tasks. Make it the size of my LG-10 flip phone. Battery life of 6 hours of constant use and 96 hours of stand by.
Do that and I'll take it at any price under $400 US. Otherwise, don't bother me.
There are 01 kinds of cars in the world. The General Lee, and everything else.
I'm having a hard enough time just finding a simple cell phone that doesn't have neon lights, cameras, built-in video games or vaccum cleaner attachments.
Just a damn phone, that's all i want.
do() || do_not();
Lets not kid ourselves here ... the "convenience-factor" is the issue that will tip the scales. The buying public really only cares if its going to make their lives easier.
My last job was managing a wireless retail store - and although I happen to drool over specs, most people think benefits, not features.
I and many others during the .com high predicted this was comming.
Why is IT viewed as a commidty? Where is the innovation and importance? Innovation in IT is alive and kicking, just on a smaller scale.
Mainframe lovers trashed the microcomputer or PC and even RMS viewed them as toys and focused gnu on "real"systems.
Funny how people still do this today with computers. I mean pc computers obviously.
The microprocessor gave rise to micro's and the internet/networking gave rise to cells.
But like high end servers and mainframes are still around the same is true with desktops. They are not going away. Rather the market will shift to them and keep them around for background stuff. On your desk you will probably have them for years and use your cell however for IM and some email.
I think their may be some hope for sun after all and problems for Microsoft. Java is going to be HOTT real soon. All the software companies will target phones and use the micro-edition of java or perl embedded.
Perhaps MS may be the next IBM, The former monopolist giant.
http://saveie6.com/
At this point, you have got to stop thinking of a computer as a single defined device. Even if you ignore mainframes and restrict yourself to the PC-compatible market, people use computers for many things. Cellphoneas are never going to be web-servers. They are never going to be full-blown geek machines - you are not going to program on them. But probably 90% of users never do anything like that.
The fact of interest is that CPU power is no longer a restriction - a cellphone has enough oomph to run most applciations that mist users run. Where it lacks, as you point out, is input devices, output devices, and to some extent storage.
Input on most cellphones is frankly awful for anything other than dialling numbers or very simple menu driven systems. Output on that tiny screen is poor, but not that bad. In fact, if the possibility of it beaing read on a cellphone screen stops people sending HTML email, I'll count that a win. Likewise, storage is enough for most peoples text needs, but will be rapidly drained by images, even still.
So the "killer feature" to make these work is better input. Of course, one day one day true voice recognition will arrive, delivered by a flight of pigs. Until that porcine dawn, people will keep trying to find other input mechanisms that work. Until they do, I think the proposal by the OP is, so some extent, wishful thinking.
Consciousness is an illusion caused by an excess of self consciousness.
It's a well-known quote, but it seems applicable:
I have always wished that my computer would be as easy to use as my telephone. My wish has come true. I no longer know how to use my telephone.
- Bjarne Stroustrup
Cell phones have a long way to go before they replace my computer, and reliability is only part of the problem. Handheld devices inherently require tradeoffs in usability.
They go for $29.99 because they suck and they're old news. Dead product.
Check out the Treo600 from PalmOne (formerly Handspring). It has a keyboard too and runs Palm OS5. Combine this with Sprint's flat-rate (10 bucks a month) high speed data, and you enter a whole new world Beave.
I don't work for PalmOne, but I have had a Treo600 since last October, and I'm here to tell you, while it doesn't replace my computers, I can run VNC on it and CONTROL every computer I use. And telnet, and SMS, and IM, and e-mail, and play cool games. And take pictures and video. And slide in a 512MB SD card. And did I mention it plays MP3s, WAVs, OGGs, **AND** Shoutcast streams? Awesome sound quality. At least as good as an iPod. And it's a kickass phone AND it fits in my freaking pocket! It rocks. You have no idea.
And I'm a "professionial." White-collar type. Not some zit-faced hip-hop kid.
The Dell Axim was my latest PDA attempt and I got a bluetooth card for it and connected to the net via my Sony t610. Pocket Outlook still just sucks for use with a regular ole imap server (I'm sure it's great with Exchange of course). It'd do braindead things like want to download all headers even though I'm just interested in last few of them. Syncing was a pain too, since it requires outlook on the desktop and active sync to sync contacts, calendar entries, etc.
I settled on the 6600 and a Mac powerbook using isync and bluetooth and couldn't be happier. For one thing, the 6600's mail app is quick and efficient for what it does, browsing latest messages. I have mine set to just download the headers of the last 30 messages (quick), then only the body if I set it. Since GPRS is built into the phone, it doesn't require anything else. And it's small. The syncing of contacts and calendar is a breeze over bluetooth and isync.
Opera web browser (paid for it extra, since it doesn't come with U.S. 6600s) works remarkably well, reformatting pages to better appear on a small screen device.
The mail has some pleasant surprises, like if you try to send a mail message and it fails due to lack of signal or whatever, it'll drop it in a mail outbox and automatically retry it every 15 minutes.
The camera on the phone is incredible too. Compare this close up shot I took with the 6600 with the same subject matter and distance taken on my Sony t610.
I installed putty, and while it works, I can't imagine it being useful for anything but maybe an emergency login to restart a failed service or something.
And accessing the net from the powerbook over bluetooth thru the 6600 is a real easy affair.
The only quirk I've seen with the 6600 is that file transfers TO the device over bluetooth only occur at about 3KB/sec -- which is way below the bluetooth spec.
The CPU speed race between Intel and AMD in recent years has been fueled tremendously by gaming. Once processor speeds caught up finally with the code bloat of business apps like MS Office, most business users really didn't *need* more speed. But PC games constantly push the hardware envelope, and as AMD provided faster chips and the gamer market bought them, Intel was forced to keep up.
While phones are definitely adapting more features and becoming more powerful, more people are using PCs and game consoles as the center of their home entertainment. Even without digital music, digital video manipulation and playback, and other uses for PCs, the PC gaming market is huge:
"Overall, 2003 U.S. sales of console games totaled USD 5.8 billion (186.4 million units) while computer games accounted for USD 1.2 billion (52.8 million units) in sales. Total game software sales in 2002 were USD 6.9 billion, with console games bringing in USD 5.5 billion in sales and computer games accounting for USD 1.4 billion. (Note: The numbers released by the ESA today do not include sales of game hardware or accessories.)"
The PC is continuing to evolve. I remember years ago when my dad told me he couldn't understand why he should buy a computer, aside from using it for accounting and occasional letter-writing. Now he uses it daily to run his business, communicate with other people, listen to music, find information, and so on.
A proliferation of other computing devices doesn't mean that the PC is going away any time soon.
Read the EFF's Fair Use FAQ
One of the main things driving mobile phone sales is, of course, fashion. Especially among the younger consumers.
And the problem with most of these crossover devices is that they are Huge.
I know a few people with these Nokias and these T-mobile-thingies, and they just look ridiculous.
Now look at Japan.
As soon as we have normal-sized phones that do all the e-communicating and surfing we normally use our computers for, without looking stupid, then we'll see them replace PDAs for most people.
This Like That - fun with words!
How can you compare a $500+ device to a $30 device? The hiptop is great for what it does, you can send/receive email in a format that actually is workable (unlike most cell phones) you can browse the web, go on IM and even SSH to your favorite server with its console app. Tetris, old school football, calendar and notes all for $30.
For a student who wants to do all of the above and have it in a cool little package that wont break the bank, why not the Sidekick?
I ask for a car and I get a computer. How's about that for being born under a bad
Convergence devices are crap.
I'd rather see a standard for wireless personal data network access and portable storage -- and let individual devices miniaturize and specialize.
E.g.
I don't want a camera phone with a bad camera interface, crappy resolution, limited features, tiny memory and nonexistant output choices.
Instead I'd like to be able to buy a wireless data storage device: HD, Flash, Removable media, whatever - it doesn't matter. Just an independent device that stores data and can wirelessly transmit it to devices that need it over a common protocol (bluetooth would be fine).
Then I can buy a phone that grabs my contact list, ringtones and games from there. No more having content locked to a service provider or a device. Then I can buy a PDA which uses the portable storage for apps, data, contact list, etc. Then I can buy an MP3 player, a digital camera, etc, etc.
I don't need my screen and battery life being sucked out of my phone when I'm just listening to MP3s. I don't need PDA processing burning through my battery when I just want to use the phone. I don't need a device which tries to wrap one bad interface around a half dozen sepcialized functions.
Furthermore, I want to be able to take my mp3 player or my phone into the gym, or the corporate offices of my clients, while leaving the camera functionality in the car so I don't violate the camera bans.
Not to mention the benefit of finally being free of the nonportability of data. No more duplicating contact lists to new devices. No more shuffling CF cards between the MP3 player, the camera, and the PDA. No more waiting for the right device to show up with the right storage solution.
Of course, I'm not holding my breath.
// "Can't clowns and pirates just -try- to get along?"
You're not going to want to be restricted to the phone's display when you're typing, and you're not going to want a laptop's bulk when you're not working, and maybe the compromise of a handheld suits you or maybe it's just too big... but whetever you decide on, you have to stick with it, because that's where your "stuff" is. Like in the George Carlin skit, you can take part of the "stuff" out of the main place you keep your "stuff", and copy it to another device. Then you take part of that "stuff" and beam it to someone else...
But after a while what happens is that the "stuff" is the important thing.
What you really want isn't "a phone that's a computer", it's "a phone that lets you get at all your stuff", whether that stuff is music, contacts, ebooks, news, webpages, or what have you. The phone is a user interface device optimised for realtime audio communications. The handheld is a user interface device optimised for browsing small chunks of data. The iPod is a user interface device optimised for playing music, and so on.
They all carry little chunks of your "stuff" around.
What you really want isn't a "phone that's a computer" or a handheld or a laptop, what you want is a way to keep your stuff organised, and a way to get at your stuff from whatever device you're carrying, and then you don't care whether it's a phone today or a handheld or a laptop, you've got your stuff.
So what do you do? You could keep your "stuff" online, then everything becomes a terminal, but now you're tied to cellphone coverage... which probably works in Europe, but it doesn't work in places like the USA or Australia. You could keep your "stuff" in the smallest device, or the one with most space, but then that's the one you always have to keep with you.
Alternatively, you can keep the stuff in all your devices in sync, and hope you've got the right stuff when you need it.
How about building a thing to carry your stuff? One of those USB keychain drives would be about the right size. Give it bluetooth or wifi and a USB charge/sync interface for high-speed updates, and keep all your stuff in that. Have web-based interfaces as well as file-like interfaces and syncML and everything else.
That's where your stuff is.
Plug it in to a computer, that's now YOUR computer. Bring it near a blank bluetooth phone, now that's YOUR phone, and so on...
Let me introduce you to the phone companies wet dream:
The device is your basic PDA/Phone hybrid that most phones are today, with camera of course. It has little memory of its own, doesnt dock with a PC, doesnt have a removable memory card and once the (write once) PROM has been set, it will only work on one network. You can listen to music on it, watch films, tv, browse the net, whatever. Everything you do, from adding a number to your address book (which is automatically backed up by the network) to saving a photo (which is automatically backed up by the network) requires the network, theres a small amount of memory to buffer things if you happen to be outside network coverage (unlikely) but the phone is essentially a locked device. If your a good little consumer and pay the network you get a gadget to die for, leave them and you loose all your data (unless you pay the transfer fee). It does most of what you need, but for things that require a big computer with a big screen and printer, you'll still need a PC untill they trick you out of that. The future of hardware is services, money and DRM, the idea is to make the hardware as cheap as shit, controllable by the corporations and to extract as much money from you as they can. Forget a Beowulf cluster, this is a money making cluster, 24/7 baby!
This comment does not represent the views or opinions of the user.
The Nokia N-gauge makes me uneasy, and for that matter some of the early PDA-cell phone combos that are a bit bulky. The fact is that a cell phone has a different style of usage than a PDA and the ideal ergonomics for each are different.
Still, expanding a cell phone and putting a display and a few more controls on it doesn't strike me as unworkable. I sometimes think existing cell phones are way too small, even if it makes them easier to carry around.
Computers are multifunction devices. A lot of people here are way too young to remember the dedicated word processing devices that used to be so common. People don't think anything of using their computers for a vast range of things. Now think about setting up a handheld computer that can do a vast range of things as well, including VoIP. Then it looks more reasonable.
I can easily see cell phones with a small display being used for making voice calls, surfing the web, playing video and music, and being used for playing games as well.
It will not replace the desktop computer, people still need to sit down with a full size keyboard and a gross display, but the amount of time that people have to spend at a full computer will drop and the amount of time they can spend away from the desk will increase.
Considering the amount of time people surf porn on their desktops, I highly doubt it will ever be replaced. Hard to look at boobies while holding a 1.5 x 1.5" screen that you can't hold still.
There are already a few mobile phones based on Linux available. Two Linux editions dedicated to mobile phones, the one from Mizi and the other one from Trolltech are out. As well as Linux PDAs which come pre-installed with Linux. So it shouldn't take too long until a true Linux smartphone will hit the market.
So this kid spends an average of 1025 minutes a MONTH on his cell phone? That rivals most business people
If he uses 1,025 minutes in one month that is equivalent to 12,300 minutes per year. (1,025 x 12 months)
Which is 33.676283938921307392522844820568 minutes a day. (12,300 / 365.242199 days)
I think if you added up all the little phonecalls through the working day a lot of business people would beat this kid. Sorry for the big numbers but I wanted to
I don't think he missed the point at all... Europeans tend to have a much better grasp of work/life balance than we here in the US and choose to keep work and home life separated.
Speaking only for myself, I'm much happier now that my job no longer requires schlepping a laptop to and from work (and believe me, when a company issues a laptop to you, there IS an implicit expectation that you WILL work at home in addition to the time you put in in the office since they fill your daytime hours with useless meetings... but I digress). Thus, when I leave work, I am DONE until the next work day.
Work to live, don't live to work...