Big Bang of Convergence

joNDoty writes "Businessweek is running a story predicting 'This is going to be the most disruptive period in the past 50 years." The period they are talking about is the digital age of convergence, where every software/hardware manufacturer is racing to link cell phones, tvs and computers into universal devices 'that can't be categorized as tech or consumer electronics.' 'The result is a Big Bang of convergence, and it's likely to produce the biggest explosion of innovation since the dawn of the Internet.' Overrated? Perhaps, but +1 insightful nonetheless." Sure, your fridge will tell you you need milk, but convergence is not necessarily a good thing.

Comments

Look at Your Remote Controls

[yoey]

I don't know about this "convergence" thing. I have 5 remote controls for 5 different products, and I'll be damned if I can find a way to successfully use just for all!

Re:Look at Your Remote Controls

[tha_mink]

Convergence though, kinda sweet. You can turn on your heated driveway from the comfort of your toilet remote control. That, my friend, is progress.

Re:Look at Your Remote Controls

[lukewarmfusion]

There are a lot of products intended to deal with your abundance of remotes. Of course, many of them are more difficult to use than it's worth, and some of them cost hundreds of dollars.

Which leads me to my main point - convergence of devices that I use on a regular basis will be a bad idea.

I want a small phone (I keep it with me everywhere). I want a big computer screen and a keyboard that's big enough to type fast on. I want a PDA that can integrate with my other computers, but allows me to use the stylus. I want a digital camera that I can take decent photos with for prints or posting on the web.

Am I asking too much? Look at all the products out there designed to address exactly what I listed above, and not only are they way more expensive than I would ever pay.... but they fail to do any of the things I described, at least to the extent that I want them there.

Simplicity = usability

I agree.

[LilGuy]

When your toaster tells you that you've got 2 potential e-harmony dates, and your fridge won't shut up about your lousy tv dinner diet, it will be time to move to the mountains.

Re:I agree.

[captainClassLoader]

"...Julie? Hey, I'm real sorry about last night. My toaster went up in flames with an overdone Pop-Tart(tm), and so I never got your email..."

Re:I agree.

[malok2]

bread as display device

Linking

[isd_glory]

Linking link cell phones, tvs and computers would be nice... if they could link it with a frickin' flying car already

Please don't converge my fridge

[Wesley Felter]

I fear the 3l33t snax0rz.

Inevitable outcome...

[Anonymous Coward]

Same as any other boom. Huge leaps, then the typical stagnation. We are definitely at the outset of the bread and circuses phase for the wired empire. The shine will wear off the need for the newest of the new when the technology plateaus, and all you have are packaging updates. I can see this coming to a close in far fewer than 50 years. It's a shame that the boom wasn't in connecting people who have no connectivity to anything.

My thoughts.

[Cow007]

I think often devices that try to do many things succed in doing many things less well than specialized devices. Not only are we going to see a lot of innovation but we are going to see a lot of failed products in the years to come.

Re:My thoughts.

[Moofie]

Of course, you're typing your missive on the ultimate counterpoint to your argument.

Hard to imagine a more general purpose tool than a PC.

There's always the next big thing

[Nyder]

They been saying this, what, 3 years now? Sure it is.

bah

[sulli]

Slow news week for BusinessWeek? "Convergence" has been the "most disruptive EVAR" wave of the future for decades now. It's not like anything has fundamentally changed and everyone wants one device to do everything now that they didn't want before. Who really needs a microwave that surfs the internet, or a television with Caller ID?!

Maybe it's like the metric system, and soccer in America*. It's the wave of the future, and always will be.

* maybe not. US Soccer is #8 in the world now, ahead of Germany!

Re:bah

[Derkec]

Sorry, but as of Jun 4th, we're 9th in the world. A single point behind Germany. That's one of the things that pisses the world off about us. Even when we don't care about something (like soccer) we're still pretty damn good at it.

So Sorry- I've only got one.

[mekkab]

Sorry- I've only got one- SONY's RM-VL900 learns with the best of 'em.

Re:So Sorry- I've only got one.

[swordboy]

Sorry- I've only got one- SONY's RM-VL900 learns with the best of 'em.

This is not the whole story.

I, too, have this remote control and, while it does an adequate job of controlling everything, it does not provide for a "wife proof" interface. To be fair, I should replace "wife proof" with "non-techie proof" or something like that - but I won't.

For example, if I want to watch a DVD, then I have to press:

- TV, power (TV powers on)
- DVD, power (DVD powers on)
- AMP, 8 (which flips the receiver to the DVD input)

But WAIT! The instructions are different if the TV is already on. The complexity is MIND boggling. I will give ALL OF MY MONEY to someone who can fix the problem. And before everyone suggests CURRENT PRODUCTS, don't - because I've tried them all.

Re:So Sorry- I've only got one.

[tmhsiao]

According to the manual, you can set the DVD button to run that entire sequence of codes if you press and hold the DVD button for a few seconds, or as indicated, just the DVD -> AMP steps.

If you read manuals, that is.

Re:So Sorry- I've only got one.

[BaltoAaron]

How I solved the component switching problem:
(I use my AV receiver to do all my audio and video switching. It sounds like you do the same.)
Set up the little #1 button on the top as my 'power all components on' button. Then I learn my AV receiver's 'switch to DVD' buttons to the VL900's 'display' button on the DVD component. (repeat this step for each component, Cable, VCR, CD, etc.) When the wife wants to watch the DVD, just hit the big DVD button on the top and then click 'display' to make it 'come on the TV'. Want to switch back to the Cable, click the 'TV/Sat' button then click the 'display' button again and your back on cable.

It's not perfect and it requires all the components to be on, but it works for me.

Re:So Sorry- I've only got one.

[CreatureComfort]

Easy solution...

Get a better, upgraded wife.

Re:So Sorry- I've only got one.

[Black Perl]

And before everyone suggests CURRENT PRODUCTS, don't - because I've tried them all.

Have you really tried the computer-programmable ones? The philips pronto series (all of 'em) support downloaded IR codes. There are libraries of discrete codes (ie. non toggle, ON means ON) for just about every manufacturer you can think of.

Personally, I use the Pronto Neo. I like it for many reasons. A fully programmable touchscreen--I created custom graphics for it. I like that it has a decent amount of hard buttons too. Every button (both hard and virtual) can send IR codes, navigate/change "screens", start timers, and remote-specific things (turn on/off the backlight), or have a macro that does many or all of the above. I downloaded discrete codes for all my stuff. The System Off button turns everything off, period.

My wife loves it. She is greeted by simple icons. If she wants to watch TV, she touches the TV picture and then the TV, cable box, and receiver turn on, and she sees the network logos for her favorite channels. There are tabs for other channel logos (including a Kids tab that my kids use), and a tab that leads to a number pad for direct channel input.

If she wants to watch a DVD, it's similar. Push the DVD logo, push the "play" button. Which, by the way, slowly dims the lights down to 10% thanks to this and IR codes that I downloaded for it. The pause button ramps the lights up to 50% (for bathroom breaks).

Another little trick, I use the above IR-to-X10 gateway to turn on my PS/2 when someone touches the Game icon, thanks to an appliance module. Otherwise, it would be a pain becuase the PS/2 has a hard power switch on the back, and I have it mounted in a built-in cabinet with no room to reach behind it.

I also have a Music tab, which has buttons labeled "Jazz", "Ambient", etc. so you can turn on music without having to know what digital cable channel they're on. And, I don't even have to open the cabinets to turn all this stuff on or off, thanks to an IR repeater I have tucked in the surrounding bookshelves.

The complexity is MIND boggling. I will give ALL OF MY MONEY to someone who can fix the problem.

My 6-year old can fully operate my setup. If there's something specific you'd want to do with your setup, let me know and I'll tell you how to do it with the Pronto Neo (or the more expensive Prontos). No need to give me all your money.

I can provide screen shots of my setup if you want.

Re:So Sorry- I've only got one.

[Pieroxy]

Problem is a wife has only three slots for three features:

1. beauty
2. intelligence
3. Geekiness
4. Cooking
5. Cleaning
6. Likes sex

Pick yours, but if you want one with Geekiness built in, you'll have to compromise with a lack of other features.

Re:So Sorry- I've only got one.

[Pieroxy]

You do realize that within a typical household, there are 5 appliances: TV, VCR, DVD, Cable, Amp. There could even be a CD player/charger, but let's limit ourselves to 5.

You do realize that there are 32 combinations for these appliances to be on or off. Granted not all of them make sense, let's say just 5. Now you are saying that your solution is to program the transition from every combination to every other combination. That is 25 pre-programmed buttons to just start up or shut down everything.

It'll take longer to figure out which one you want to use than to do it manually.

The real problem is that the command to shut down is the same as the command to power up. If they were separate, there would be no problem at all. Or less.

all for convergence

[enrico_suave]

just have to roll up my sleeves and do it myself, because otherwise my "converged" media will be a DRM'd crippled mess.

e.

Digital Convergence?

[norculf]

I still have my ::CueCat.

Viriiii

[Kelt]

I want to see the first person selling Anti-Virus for a refridgerator or reciever.

I should go into business selling whole-home anti-virus licenses. Good for 10 communicating devices per license. Renewable monthly.

-Kelt

FOOLS!

[Griim]

Doesn't anyone remember what happened last time when the Cylons attacked, and all of our computer systems were linked together?

Call me old fashioned if you want, but...

[the_rajah]

If I want a phone, I just want a phone that is reliable and easy to use. Not loaded with so many gadgets that I have trouble using it for the intended main function.

We just put a replacement radio in my wife's car, a '93, and instead of knobs and a few large buttons there are these tiny little buttons that I can't read the labels for without a magnifying glass. WTF is that? Certainly, it's far from user friendly. So instead of just reaching over to change the station, or even to turn the danged thing off, by simply turning a reasonable size knob, I have to keep punching tiny buttons until it does what I want. Yeah, I eventually am learning which is which, but that's not my point. And you think talking on a cell phone is distracting... HA!

IMHO too much convergence is likely to be too much of a possible good thing.

Make a product that does its intended main function and does it well.
If I want the best knife or the best scissors, I don't get a Swiss Army knife.

"Do the Right Thing. It will gratify some people and astound the rest." - Mark Twain

Re:Call me old fashioned if you want, but...

[Moofie]

Make a product that does its intended main function and does it well.
If I want the best knife or the best scissors, I don't get a Swiss Army knife.

When I want a good enough knife or a good enough pair of scissors or a decent screwdriver or a not bad pair of pliers and I'm far from my toolbox, I pull out my Leatherman Wave.

There are well designed multi-function devices and poorly designed multi-function devices. That doesn't mean the entire concept is silly. (Or smart.)

Synapse?

[SphericalCrusher]

It's already been created! Just go download the source code from skullbocks.com!

No, thanks

[Rick the Red]

I don't need my refridgerator telling me that I need milk -- I can see for myself when I use the milk. And the last thing I need is my refridgerator telling Safeway.com that I need milk and scheduling a delivery when I'm on vacation.

My VCR watches TV for me when I'm not there, my oven can cook dinner for me when I'm not there, and my checking account can pay bills automatically if I'm not there. With all this convergence, will my possessions need me anymore?

Too 'low-tech'

[rixstep]

Sure, your fridge will tell you you need milk

This is way too low-tech.

What your fridge should tell you is:

'Hey dude, I know you're thinking of buying milk today, but I just read an article online about a bad shipment of milk to stores in this area, so I'd hold off a day or two until there's more details. I'll tell you when it's safe again, OK?

'Oh - and of course I tested the milk you still have inside me, and that's OK to drink. Just don't buy any more until I say so.'

THAT is hi-tech. That is convergence.

Re:Too 'low-tech'

[rewt66]

Right. The real problem is thinking up things for these "converging" devices to do that customers actually care about in the real world.

And that's hard. It's a lot harder than creating a new buzzword. It's even harder than building a product that connects to other products.

Re:Convergence

[tha_mink]

The problem you are referring to is fashion. I have no problem using a 5 year old walkman. I have no problem wearing non-faggy rollerblades from 1997. But most people just buy things based on look. They don't even know how to use them.

*cough* Apple *cough*

go'head kill me.

Great... now my toaster will spam me too

[HighOrbit]

"Your Bagle is ready. Would you like to see an add about Philly Cream Cheese?"

Yes, but...

[shogarth]

...most users still can't program a digital clock without help and most techs can't develop an interface that my grandmother can use. Until these two factors converge, high tech toys are going to remain the Playthings of Geekdom.

Re:Yes, but...

[tsg]

...most users still can't program a digital clock without help and most techs can't develop an interface that my grandmother can use.

Not to be insensitive, but your grandmother is going to die. Meanwhile the children being born today are growing up with the technology and will have no trouble using it. At two years old (he's four now), my son could put the tape in the VCR (even looks to make sure there's not one in already and ejects it if there is), switch the TV to Video, press play, and fast forward through the previews with no help from me. He's already proficient on a PC, even understands the difference between single and double-click and knows to wait when the hourglass comes up. Again, no offense, but my son could probably kick your grandmother's ass on a computer. Your grandmother is not the market for these devices. My son is.

Beowulf cluser of playback devices?

[Flashpot]

It seems to me this "convergence" thing is about making every *smart* piece of equipment a playback machine for some *drm controlled* content.

Thanks but no thanks.

Having one home display device makes sense.

[kfg]

Having one home sound reproduction device makes sense.

It saves complication and cost. It's just good engineering to simplify the system by reducing redundency to the optimum (not necessarily the minimum).

Having your toaster call up a website to find out how far up it should turn the rheostat, phone your mom to let her know you're actually eating a good breakfast, tell you the next chess move in that game with your buddy and then starting your car does not reduce complication and cost.

It is a poor solution.

There's nothing wrong with convergence, so long as the convergence makes inherent sense.

KFG

Just imagine a date coming into your place...

[sexylicious]

You turn on the TV to watch a movie...
"Problems down there? TRY CIALIS!"
Or you go to the kitchen to get something to drink...
"We've got the largest selection of dolls!"

Like I'd want any of my appliances trying to sell me penis enlargement pills.

Re:Convergence

[Rude Turnip]

OK, I'll bite...my 12" iBook is tiny, tough and responsive. Apple's integration of the OS and hardware make it feel like I'm using a "tangible device" (ie a stereo, refrigerator, fax machine, copier), rather than using an abstracted operating system doing a balancing act on top of hardware.

Actually...Convergence happened ALREADY

[mdrejhon]

Actually, convergence is happening all over the place. Just that we don't really know where we're converging to.

Videogame consoles are nowadays video and music players too, with the XBox and PlayStation2.
(1980's guy: How the hell do I insert Betamax tapes into my Atari!?)

Cellphones now double as PDA and cameras too.
(1980's guy: PDA? Public Displays of Affection and voyeurism with a cellphone? You're crazy.)

Some printers are now copiers, scanners and faxes too.
(1980's guy: Wow, my own Xerox! Where can I get one of these for the price of my Commodore dot matrix?)

Most DVD video players are now CD/VCD/MP3 players too.
(1980's guy: DVD? MP3? Oh, a disc format? Is that like the 12 inch LaserDisc?)

Our cable TV is also an Internet conection (and even phone line too).
(1980's guy: What's an Internet? And tell me, how the hell is phone over cable possible?)

Cable and satellite TV boxes that also double as 100 hour tapeless recorders (PVR's).
(1980's guy: A VCR that can record 100 hours with no videotape? You're kidding.)

You name it, various kinds of convergence is happening today, all over the place. Who knows what's gonna happen next.

Rewriting History

[meehawl]

Consider a couple of the pioneers. With the iPod music player, Apple Computer added a tiny hard drive to a music-playing computer and -- voilá! -- vast music collections suddenly fit into a pocket.

The quantity of historical revisionism in what passes for business journalism never ceases to amaze me. Goebbels would be proud!

Archos was first company to market with a hard drive-based mp3 player in late 2000, although Compaq had a prototype device in early 2000 that they failed to market. There was even an open-source project to build a "High Capacity MP3 Player" in 2000 that quickly advanced to using hard drives.

Yeah, that's a good idea!

[Thud457]

Worm Developed for Nokia Series-60 Phones

'nuff said.

Convergence? how about divergence

[fikx]

I'd rather all the different devices work together instead of building all my devices into one. Let me put my phone call into my car speakers....let me take the picture on my PC and put it up on my TV....let me share a photo from my camera on the screen of the the guy next to me with a laptop...

I know you can do all these things now, but not without a bunch of proprietary, unpredictable fiddling even if the right devices are involved. I want the ability to be common, not a rare combination. If converagnce means all my gadgets have the computing power to speak the same language, then Let's do it!

Oh, this is just wonderful...

[JRHelgeson]

So, I open my web browser at work, log into my refrigerator at home only to hear it say: "You've got Mold!"

...Sorry