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Is This The Big One?

Quivering Coward writes "There has been a marked increase in seismic activity in southern California in the past several days," pointing to this map from Caltech Earthquake Net, including a 5.2 and 3.6 this morning (2004/06/15). "Could this be the big one? Is 'the big one' ever going to happen? NASA is doing their part to predict the future of Earthquakes."

50 of 151 comments (clear)

  1. Run by Isosonys · · Score: 5, Funny

    Run go to another state. Just RUN. That is all Thank You.

    1. Re:Run by cluckshot · · Score: 5, Interesting

      You might have a day or two left but well the Lunar Land tides maxed on June 3 and they do it again on July 1. The orbital max differential occurred on June 15 for apogee and will max for Paragee on July 1. I suppose with all the other data we see a high probablility of Earthquake as the moon approaches the close approach on July 1.

      The time to be concerned is when the moon is at 45 Deg to the longitude of So. CA.

      Click on the Earth Moon Viewer Apogee/Paragee Calc if you want to check out the exact times etc.

      --
      Never Politically Correct ~ I prefer the facts If you don't like what I say, get a life, or comment yourself.
    2. Re:Run by Urkki · · Score: 2
      • Does it make you feel *that* good to nit pick a one-letter mispelling of a word that isn't commonly used? I mean, you seemed to have understood him, knowing that he meant perigee. So what is the big fucking deal?

      Relax. Slashdot is an international forum with lots of non-English speakers. He (and I) may have guessed what was meant, but you can never be sure if you guessed right or really know how to spell it yourself, if the writer made a typo or didn't actually know how to write it, or if writer actually meant something the reader didn't know. It was in no way insulting reply, so I wouldn't be so fast to call it "little kid shit"...
    3. Re:Run by troon · · Score: 4, Funny

      "Nitpick" is one word. "Paragee" is a two-letter misspelling of "perigee", although "mispelling" is a one-letter misspelling of "misspelling".

      Oh, and it's "insignificant", not "insignifigant".

      I had to be so careful not to make any typos in this post! ;-)

      --
      Ydco co ,df C erb-y go. a Ekrpat t.fxrapev
  2. What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Bob+Cat+-+NYMPHS · · Score: 4, Insightful

    That's from the Caltech quake map link. heehee.

    Anyway. A couple of small quakes and /. starts worrying about the end of the world? Get real.

    1. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by elmegil · · Score: 2, Informative

      Absolutely. Look at the last week...there were actually more, bigger quakes, closer to civilization (the two noted above were over 40 miles from listed cities) a few days ago, and they haven't fallen into the ocean. And the overall trend doesn't appear to be obviously greater than the background levels.

      --
      7 November 2006: The day Americans realized corruption and incompetence weren't addressing 11 September 2001
    2. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Smidge204 · · Score: 5, Funny

      Unless, of course, all this shakin' is weakening the underlying structure gradually. (Small shifts, crack propagation, etc). If that's the case then your "it hasn't broken under worse conditions before, therefore it won't fail now" conclusion is, if you'll excuse the pun, a bit shaky.

      Of course, this only matters if you actually consider west California "civilization". For me this is all strictly academic. :)
      =Smidge=

    3. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

      A couple of small quakes and /. starts worrying about the end of the world?

      Southern Cali == world?? You must be American.

      Apart from Californians themselves, I wonder for how many Americans this will literally be the end of the world as they actually die from depression when the output of mindless TV shows and movies slows down to a trickle.

      -hadohk

    4. Re:What happens when I click on an earthquake? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

      The real question is What happens if everyone clicks on an earthquake at the same time?"

  3. Yeah, sure.. by Lord+Bitman · · Score: 4, Funny

    NASA is "predicting" the earthquakes

    --
    -- 'The' Lord and Master Bitman On High, Master Of All
    1. Re:Yeah, sure.. by Pi_0's+don't+shower · · Score: 3, Informative
      Exactly. As every goephysicist knows, you cannot predict earthquakes! We just don't know enough about the Earth's interior, including all the fault lines and their details to be able to do it. The best we can do, as far as I know, is to detect tremors and give a few minutes warning. From the article above, here's what Arthur Smith has to say:
      Scientists cannot predict earthquakes - otherwise we would not have so many where hundreds or thousands of people get killed, like the recent one in Japan. After an earthquake has happened there are various things geologists look for in the "fault" associated with the earthquake to give some idea of how long it will be till the next one. The "fault" is the part of the earth's crust where two sections are sliding against one another in some fashion. To make real predictions would require knowing the location of all these faults (some kind of map), knowing at what stage each of them is (how much tension there is and what kind of things are preventing the fault from slipping) and how they interact with one another. Even for very carefully studied regions like southern California, we have only a very small fraction of the information that would be needed for true prediction.
  4. The future... is now by Jorkapp · · Score: 5, Funny

    We simply cannot allow this to happen. Should the ground open up, then the land of the molemen, warlocks, and trolls will release their soldiers! We must defend ourselves!

    Therefore, I am introducing the MWTDA (Molemen, Warlock, and Troll Defense Act). All citizens are to be in posession of:

    * Either a large water gun or a hose
    * Trashbags

    Military combat units are also under orders to be in posession of the forementioned weaponry.

    [Obligatory Simpsons Quote]
    [Homer] You're right. I'll deal with those murderous trolls.
    [Bart] Huh?
    [Homer] I mean - I'll deal with those murderous trolls. ...Later...

    [Homer] (Being chased) Marge! Lisa! Now!
    * Marge and Lisa open fire on the jockeys with a watergun and hose - incapacitating them.
    [Homer] Bart - Go get me a trashbag.

    --
    Frink: Nice try floyd, but you were designed for scrubbing, and scrubbing is what you shall do.
  5. All we have to do is ... by LennyDotCom · · Score: 4, Funny

    We just need to blow up a small tactical nuke deep within the fault line and we can save the west coast. Trust me I saw it in a movie once. It worked like a charm.

    --
    http://Lenny.com
    1. Re:All we have to do is ... by CamMac · · Score: 3, Funny

      The small tactical nuke encourages the fault line to shift earlier and with more force than it would have naturally.

      Most of California, despite heroic attempts by the Govinator, violently slips into the pages of History.

      Washington and all other civilization on the west coast is saved.

      --Cam
      PS The Church rewrites the Soddom and Gamora tale to reflect current events.

      --
      All jocks think about is sports. All nerds think about is sex.
    2. Re:All we have to do is ... by KnightStalker · · Score: 3, Funny

      Oh, I see you've somehow become aware of the secret state of Quincy, the east border of which extends from Vancouver, B.C. all the way to Cannon Beach, OR, and which (to the untrained eye) looks remarkably like the Pacific Ocean. *holds up mysterious chrome rod* Look over here, please...

      --
      * And remember, it's spelled N-e-t-s-c-a-p-e, but it's pronounced "Mozilla."
    3. Re:All we have to do is ... by Opie812 · · Score: 2, Funny

      washington is on the west coast?

      It will be after "The Big One"

      ...Washington DC that is...

      --
      I'm not a nerd. Nerds are smart.
  6. Belive it or not... by Repran · · Score: 5, Informative

    ...but a russion scientist actually predicted this would happen.

    --

    -- Contradictions only exist in thought - not in reality.

    1. Re:Belive it or not... by WhiteBandit · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Dr. Keilis-Borok's office is about 3 doors down from mine. :) I haven't actually talked to him yet though, but I'm working at UCLA this summer for the Southern California Earthquake Center.

      Interestingly enough, his team of researchers are claiming to have predicted the San Simeon earthquake in December and an earthquake last year in Japan. Using the same methods, he is predicting a minimum magnitude 6.5 to strike a 12,000 square mile region of Southern California by September 5th. This 12,000 square mile region is mostly in eastern California and the Mojave Desert (sites of the M7.3 1992 Landers and M7.1 1999 Hector Mines quakes).

      This M5.2 earthquake yesterday happened about 50km southwest of San Diego. It falls quite a ways out of the area of his prediction.

  7. Science Fiction can inform us by justanyone · · Score: 3, Interesting


    I read a really cool sci-fi story once where there was a big earthquake coming, everybody believed it and moved east of the line (into Nevada) and waited.

    The big day came, the earthquake happened, and ... it was the Eastern part that fell into the ocean. The western sliver remained, newborn cliffs towering above a freshly minted surf far below, having swallowed the rest of the U.S.

    Maybe those of us in Chicago ought to have life rafts, too (grin).

    -- Kevin Rice

    1. Re:Science Fiction can inform us by sadler121 · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Maybe those of us in Chicago ought to have life rafts...

      Though this is a joke, one musten forget the The New Madrid Fault Line, and how many geologists believe that a "big one" could eminate from there, causing much more damage, seeing that buildings in the midwest aren't as "earth quake" proof as those in the west.

  8. Earth moved by sckeener · · Score: 4, Funny

    Shhh...my wife thought it was me.

    --
    "Only one thing, is impossible for god: to find any sense in any copyright law on the planet." Mark Twain
    1. Re:Earth moved by pavlov112 · · Score: 3, Funny

      What about "wife" implies regular sex? I rather thought it was the opposite...

    2. Re:Earth moved by el-spectre · · Score: 3, Funny

      Heh... I like how a 6 digit # is '5, give or take'. Imprecise to an order of magnitude!

      --
      "Faith: Belief without evidence in what is told by one who speaks without knowledge, of things without parallel." - A.B.
    3. Re:Earth moved by sckeener · · Score: 2, Funny

      As one of my single friends puts it:

      'I probably get laid as often as you, but at least I get a different girl each time.'

      --
      "Only one thing, is impossible for god: to find any sense in any copyright law on the planet." Mark Twain
  9. So what? by dacarr · · Score: 4, Interesting
    It's an earthquake. BFD. Yes, during Northridge, it levelled an apartment building, knocked over a freeway interchange ramp or two, and toppled the big screen at Anaheim Stadium, but that was really it. The damage and death toll for that six pointer was trivial. And ten years ago, I heard it predicted by seismologists that there would be a 50/50 chance of a major earthquake hitting within the next thirty years.

    I mean, come on, people, are we expecting The Big One to cause the entire state of California to break away at its borders, and we start floating around the Pacific Ocean in some sort of bad remake of Space:1999, with Arnold Schwarzenneger in charge of Earth Base California or something?

    --
    This sig no verb.
  10. Not Southern Cal by sfjoe · · Score: 4, Informative


    Many researchers believe the next major earthquake will be in northern California, not southern California. One reason is that the San Andreas fault 'creeps' in the south, slowly releasing energy (so the theory goes). In the north, the San Andreas is locked and last moved in 1906, when it released all its energy at once, devastating San Francisco.

    --
    It's simple: I demand prosecution for torture.
    1. Re:Not Southern Cal by WhiteBandit · · Score: 2, Informative

      The San Andreas fault demonstrates aseismic creep in the central section of the fault, just north of Parkfield. Another area this occurs is around Hollister.

      The last time the San Andreas fault moved in Southern California was the 1857 Fort Tejon earthquake.

      The last time it moved in Northern California is the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake.

      Despite this, both areas have a high potential for devastating earthquakes. (The section around San Francisco itself last moved in 1908. The Loma Prieta quake was centered near Santa Cruz, quite a ways south of SF).

  11. Ahem... by linuxwrangler · · Score: 2, Insightful

    ...How the bleep did this get by the editors. All this is is links to a couple of generic sites on earthquakes and some vague and unsubstantiated assertion about increasing frequency.

    The first link points to a recent earthquake map that has been available for ages. It's on my bookmarks to look at when there is an interesting event.

    The other is an article on NASA earthquake research.

    Nothing in either points to an increase in frequency and indeed typing "earthquake" and "increase" into Google news turns up no interesting articles.

    I guess those top-secret black government agencies have done a great job of keeping this monumental (non) story out of the news.

    --

    ~~~~~~~
    "You are not remembered for doing what is expected of you." - Atul Chitnis
    1. Re:Ahem... by GeoGreg · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Agreed. Not much news here. Plus, there is no particular reason (that I know of anyway) to believe that the next Big Quake will be preceded by increased seismic activity.

  12. The San Andreas fault is nice and all, but by bersl2 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    What about the New Madrid fault? It's overdue for a 7+ magnitude earthquake, and it's in the middle of America.

    1. Re:The San Andreas fault is nice and all, but by GeoGreg · · Score: 2, Informative

      Nobody really knows if the New Madrid system is "overdue", as it's difficult to discern a pattern from only one datapoint (the 1811-1812 series of earthquakes).

    2. Re:The San Andreas fault is nice and all, but by Kelson · · Score: 2, Informative

      Actually, I was just reading about the New Madrid system a few days ago. They've found evidence of past massive quakes in the area around AD 800 and AD 1300, suggesting a possible 500-year cycle.

      If that's the case, they're probably safe for another 300 years.

  13. Re:Yep, any day now. By which I mean next 100000 d by somapoi · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Umm ... .it floats on magma .. not on the ocean.

  14. No It's not the one. by EvilTwinSkippy · · Score: 3, Informative
    Wrong fault line. (The 5.5 Earthquake was out in the Pacific.)

    In fact, the earthquake patterns on the map show that today is a pretty ho-hum day.

    Nothing to see here. Move along.

    --
    "Learning is not compulsory... neither is survival."
    --Dr.W.Edwards Deming
  15. Re:Yep, any day now. By which I mean next 100000 d by CodeMonkey4Hire · · Score: 2, Funny

    So if California floats... like wood. And wood burns... like a witch... it's a witch!
    Burn it! Burn it! Burn it! Burn! Burn!...

    --

    Let's go Hurricanes!!! 2006 Stanley Cup Champions!!!
  16. One great big, festering neon distraction by georgewad · · Score: 3, Funny

    I've an idea to keep you all occupied:
    Learn to swim

    --
    Karma: It's not just a good idea. It's the law.
  17. Learn to swim by Discoflamingo13 · · Score: 3, Funny

    I'll see you down in Arizona Bay.

  18. If you keep making predictions... by Chemisor · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If you keep making predictions, eventually one of them will come true.

    1. Re:If you keep making predictions... by bw5353 · · Score: 3, Funny
      "If you keep making predictions, eventually one of them will come true."

      Bah, that's far too much trouble for me. It is much easier to go for "If you keep reading other people's predictions, eventually you will find one that turned out to be true."

    2. Re:If you keep making predictions... by Alsee · · Score: 2, Funny

      I predict an increase in the frequency and intensity of earthquake predictions.

      -

      --
      - - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
  19. Eh? by torinth · · Score: 2, Informative

    What?

    I'm sorry, but since when is a tiny 5.2 earthquake followed by an aftershock at the same location even notable?

    5.2's are nothing in Southern California, and you can see a map that looks exactly like that maybe once every month or two.

    I imagine that what probably threw people off is the extra earthquake that was originally reported by the USGS. That one was supposed to be centered near Lancaster, or some such, but it wasn't long before they took back the claim on grounds of instrument error.

  20. Sorry about that.... by clintp · · Score: 4, Funny

    Those "earthquakes" are actually just the collective sobbing and shaking of the Los Angeles Lakers fans.

    --
    Get off my lawn.
  21. Slight New Madrid shake yesterday. by Mr.Sharpy · · Score: 2, Interesting

    There was a small earthquake near New Madrid, MO just yesterday. It was only 3.7 (I think), but it still serves as a reminder that its there and active. Interesting that there was a small quake there while all these quakes have been occuring on the West Coast.

    Recent US Earthquake Activity

  22. Why, a quake goes off, of course. by El+Jynx · · Score: 2, Interesting

    There's a trigger there, see. Their server si co-linked to several underground sets of renewable explosives and a gargantuan rocket turbine buried in the moon, the combination of which allows Quake Control to within a few square miles.

    Oh, come ON. NONE of you have ever wondered why the moon only shows us one face? What're the odds?

    Not yet available for Q3.

    --
    A positive attitude may not solve all your problems, but it will annoy enough people to make it well worth the effort.
    1. Re:Why, a quake goes off, of course. by TwP · · Score: 3, Informative

      NONE of you have ever wondered why the moon only shows us one face? What're the odds?

      The moon is gravitationally locked to the Earth's rotation. Tidal forces from Earth's gravitational field have induced a bulge in the moon; this buldge always points along the line from the center of the Earth to the center of the moon. At one time the moon was rotating faster then it is now, but the moon had to bend and flex as this bulge shifted around. Energy was lost to friction (rocks grinding against one another), and the moon's rotation slowed until it was gravitationally locked to the Earth.

      But don't take my word for it, I'm just a rocket scientist.

  23. My first time was good by ee_moss · · Score: 2, Informative

    That 5.2 was my first earthquake, and it wasn't much. Building kind of shook a bit. Everyone went on with work like nothing. Some people didn't even notice.

  24. Re:Yep, any day now. By which I mean next 100000 d by hopemafia · · Score: 2, Informative

    And that is also wrong.
    You forgot the real scenario:

    California | or / or \ Rest of US...doesn't matter

    It's a strike slip fault...California is moving north relative to the rest of the continent at a rate of a cm or two per year, so give it a while (millions and millions of years) and California will border Alaska.

    Of course that's a massivly simplified view, but it adequately descibes the situation.

    There is absolutely no danger of California ever sinking into the Pacific (sadly), the best we can hope for is global warming melting the icecaps and raising sea level...that would cover most of CA's population with water.

    --
    If God had had a computer it would have taken him 7 months to create the earth...if he even bothered to do it at all.
  25. Duct Tape by gCGBD · · Score: 2, Funny

    Maybe if you left coast people unrolled some big rolls of duct tape from the coast up to the mountains you could hold it together and avert the worst of the disaster. If you have some extra, cover over the primary fault lines really well as well ....

    --

    O=='=++
  26. Best website for quake prediction info by nightherper · · Score: 2, Informative
    http://www.syzygyjob.com/

    Be sure to put on your foil hat, as Jim Berkland is a frequent coast to coast guest

    --

    ...

  27. Stop Plate Tectonics! by wcrowe · · Score: 2, Funny

    I am outraged that neither political party is doing anything about plate tectonics! How many earthquakes must occur before something is done about it?

    --
    Proverbs 21:19