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China: the New Advanced Technology Research Hotbed

securitas writes "The New York Times' Chris Buckley reports that China is the new hotbed of advanced technology research and development for hundreds of global technology companies. The list includes household names like Oracle (which 'opened a lab in Beijing to tailor its Linux operating software to suit its Asian customers'), Motorola, Siemens, IBM, Intel, General Electric, Nokia and others. Microsoft Research Asia hopes Google-surpassing technology comes from a group of '10 researchers ... working on new ways to drill deep into the Internet and select and organize the information found there.' Growth of the R&D sector in China is so rapid that 'within five years China could overtake Britain, Germany and Japan as a base for corporate research, leaving it second only to the United States.'"

81 of 452 comments (clear)

  1. Reg Free Link - No Karma Whoring by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Informative

    Reg Free Link

    OK, now let's argue over whether or not Slashdot counts as a "Blog", and whether or not we should be using the New York Times Link Generator to create links so that people can RTFA!

    Yes, BugMeNot works too, but if you're going to provide an article to Slashdot, at least make it so everyone can read it without jumping through hoops...

    1. Re:Reg Free Link - No Karma Whoring by nutshell42 · · Score: 2, Insightful
      Now if they did that where would all the newbies get their karma from?

      Seriously I'm registered for years, have never gotten any spam from this registration and if you don't want to register head over to google or wait for the reg free link which *will* appear within 10min.

      If a free painless registration is the price it takes for NYT to keep the niveau and the sheer amount of free stuff on their homepage I'm willing to pay it.

      --
      Don't think of it as a flame---it's more like an argument that does 3d6 fire damage
  2. Any link to China-Linux here? by Progman3K · · Score: 3, Insightful

    China announces massive adoption of Linux.
    A short time later, China emerges as a research-leader...

    Of course you CAN do research with closed-source operating systems like Windows, but you have to wait until Microsoft ALLOWS you to.

    *chuckle*

    --
    I don't know the meaning of the word 'don't' - J
    1. Re:Any link to China-Linux here? by Stripe7 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      China knows that it is way behind in technology, so it is establishiing technology enclaves where its people can learn and train up to catch up fast. This is opposed to the US where biotech is being squahed by the right wingers, and info tech is being restricted by the copyright holders and the US goverment. The US is also pushing all its high tech manufacturing industries offshore, China is offering really good terms for moving those industries into China. Project 20 years from now, all our weapons systems are dependent on hardware and software from China. Our millionaires will be running to China for longetivity treatments etc..

    2. Re:Any link to China-Linux here? by Rei · · Score: 4, Interesting

      China isn't only pushing for software research, though. The country has a huge drive being pushed for involving tech research of all kinds. Back when I worked at Rockwell-Collins, we sometimes read papers about the sort of radio and radar research being worked on in China... pretty impressive stuff, really. One that really stood out to me was a type of radar which broadcasts very broad-spectrum, relatively low-energy, "noise" of the same frequency distribution as background noise, and does a statistical analysis on received background noise to look for unnatural shifts in distrubtion that would represent a reflected signal.

      The country has been pushing heavily for all kinds of tech development; if you'll recall, the US and china had a rift a while ago over China trying to force hardware to release proprietary fabrication and design information if they wanted to have access to China's markets. China wants to take the US and Japan's places as the leading international tech powerhouses. It's probably a good strategy, too - they have a large, well educated (at least in urban areas) population. I think they can pull it off.

      And, as unpopular as this statement might be... I think their largely totalitarian government - so long as they don't infringe enough on their people so as to reduce their work ethic, their national pride, and the ability for businesses to compete with each other - will actually help them in competition with the US, due to the greater degree of strategic control they can have over their markets. The US would have a lot more trouble trying to do things like force foreign companies to disclose their tech secrets, apart from outright spying.

      --
      I was watching this thing on TV about some guy named Hitler. Someone should stop him!
    3. Re:Any link to China-Linux here? by mothz · · Score: 2, Funny
      Our millionaires will be running to China for longetivity treatments etc

      I don't have a problem with that, as long as they bring huge barrels of Wonton Soup back to the States with them.

    4. Re:Any link to China-Linux here? by router · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You miss the point; strategic control over markets exerted by who? Its easy to start playing catch up. Then, you have to figure out where to go. Following is easier than leading. Reacting is easier than acting. These planned economies leave out the free part of the market that leads and acts. Look at large companies in the US. They buy innovators. They rarely innovate themselves, they let others take that chance. Unfortunately, when you are trying to plan everything from the top, you will miss the economic inflection points that matter, and relegate yourself to perpetual catch up. Especially when most of the proceeds that would go to you in the US (maybe Europe, but I think they still have confiscatory tax rates?(Like ours aren't, I know)) instead go to the One Party Leadership. Talk about removing the incentive to compete, when a fat connected slob is buying a BMW with your money.

      Not to mention, since Chinese companies that you are forced to "invest" with are owned by the PLA and don't value IP, anything you happen to come up with is quickly copied by another PLA subsidiary and sold below your research cost. Sometimes using your own labs and factories to manufacture it. Enough of that, and nobody invests money in China any more.

      Right now, they are in the fat part of the curve, they will all jump on the bandwagon for a while and it will bite them in the ass in the end. And they will learn yet again. Its what people are good at, reinventing history. Old news.

      andy

    5. Re:Any link to China-Linux here? by gillbates · · Score: 2, Interesting

      biotech is being squahed by the right wingers

      If you're going to troll, at least get your facts straight:

      • Germany has banned the practice of embrionic stem cell research.
      • The EU has stringent controls concerning genetically modified foods.
      • Meanwhile, the US is simply refusing to fund embrionic stem cell research.

      But it gets better. The reason why embrionic stem cell research isn't being done in the US is because there's no future in it!

      • Today Parkinson's disease patients are being treated and cured with adult stem cell derived therapies.
      • There has been a limited success with using adult stem cell therapies to treat Alzheimer's.

      Why bother researching embrionic stem cells when adult stem cells are already being used to develop cures? Even given enough research money, developing a pratical therapy using embrionic stem cells is at least 15 to 20 years away.

      Biotech isn't dying in the US. Instead, drug companies are pushing expensive cures for mild ailments (heartburn?!) instead of developing the relatively expensive and risky treatments for more serious conditions. It isn't the Feds - it is economics - there's more money in selling a heartburn medication to hundreds of millions than in finding a cure for AIDS.

      --
      The society for a thought-free internet welcomes you.
    6. Re:Any link to China-Linux here? by timeOday · · Score: 2, Informative
      But it gets better. The reason why embrionic stem cell research isn't being done in the US...
      But it is. In fact, you're paying for some of it (if you pay US taxes). The only caveat is that public money is restricted to research on certain lines of stem cells.
    7. Re:Any link to China-Linux here? by Shihar · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I can tell you why the US is the leader in technology and why China will never catch up. The US actively promotes immigration, especially the immigration of intelligent people. If you walk onto any University in the US, hell, any corporation in the US, you will find them awash with people who barely speak English, but speak math or whatever there profession is with great skill. The advantage the US has enjoyed in the world is because it culls the world for the greatest minds.

      Now, that is not to say that China would not jump over the chance to snag up a few great minds of their own. Unfortunately for China though, the US has two advantages over China that it will keep it ahead, at least in the foreseeable future. First, the US is very multicultural, and very culturally tolerant. There is nothing you can do to raise eyebrows in New York City. Further, you can always find people from the same culture as yours with minimal effort. In other words, the US has the groundwork laid out to accept anyone, and has extensive experience in integrating such people. Further, US workers and businesses are so used to foreign works that it is norm, not the exception.

      Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, the US will always be a more desirable place to live because it ranks very high in its freedoms. For the foreseeable future, the US will outrank China in its freedoms by a massive margin. China can basically write off ever receiving the brightest minds from the US, Europe, and other liberal democracies, simply because very few people from these nations are going to take kindly to having their Internet access restricted and likely can not even contemplate keeping a lid on their political beliefs when in public. That goes ten times if you are talking about someone from the US. Asking an American to shut the hell up about their beliefs on the way the world should be run is about as productive as screaming at a rock.

      I imagine China is going to hit very hard bump on the road to progress. Corporations are more then happy to dump goods and factories into China, but when it comes to intellectual power, China is always going to lag well behind the US. China can really only count on its own population to provide them with intellectual power, and even then China suffers from the fact that the US and Europe will continue to cull a great deal of their brightest minds.

      I personally only see two options for China. Either they become a significantly freer society, or they accept the fact that they will never be the world's intellectual leader. Either option sounds good to me.

    8. Re:Any link to China-Linux here? by antifoidulus · · Score: 4, Interesting

      And, as unpopular as this statement might be... I think their largely totalitarian government - so long as they don't infringe enough on their people so as to reduce their work ethic, their national pride, and the ability for businesses to compete with each other - will actually help them in competition with the US, due to the greater degree of strategic control they can have over their markets.

      No, you seem to have a VERY limited knowledge of Chinese history, both recent and ancient. Look up things like the cultural revolution and the great leap forward. There is control of markets in action! China has always managed to grow at an astounding pace to only fall into ruin, moreso than most other civilizations of the world. Things are going pretty well now, but that is way too small a timeline to say that China's government is so wonderful. China will hit a bust, and with their government, the bust will be as loud as the boom.

  3. Is "insourcing" a word? by Control+Group · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Interesting - it seems China is engaging in a sort of internal outsourcing, if that makes any sense. The pace of technological development in China was slower than they wanted, so they've farmed the job out to imported companies. Make the country more attractive to foreign investors (no, not the ones from the Hotel Royale), and take advantage of their experience and financial grounding to foster a tech development surge.

    What's most fascinating about this, to me at least, is that in Western countries, this would be just a sort of emergent phenomenon, unpredicted and unplanned. But in China, odds are good that this is a deliberate strategy on the part of the Chinese government.

    Which, incidentally, is something that a lot of people seem to overlook: China's economy is becoming more and more capitalistic, but China is still politically and socially very much a state-run nation. The increasing captilism is part of the government's plan to bring the Chinese economy to the forefront of the world, and I tend to believe that this surge in R&D is just as much a deliberate strategy on the part of the Chinese government.

    Frankly, I find the whole thing fascinating.

    --

    Reality has a conservative bias: it conserves mass, energy, momentum...
    1. Re:Is "insourcing" a word? by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It seems to me that the Chinese government made a tacit agreement with the Chinese people after Tiananmen Square: you keep your mouths shut about politics (and if you don't, we've got tanks to remind you) and we'll let you get rich. It would be nice to believe that economic freedom and social freedom are inextricably linked, but in fact China (and Vietnam, for that matter) are doing a pretty good job of allowing the first while keeping strict controls on the second. This is a trick the Right learned long ago, but now the Left is catching up.

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
    2. Re:Is "insourcing" a word? by uradu · · Score: 2, Insightful

      What all the newcomers will eventually find out is what the early "adopters" already have: that China is an industrial Black Widow. It wines and dines and flatters corporations it has interest in, gets them to commit major resources to China and thus into a vulnerable situation, and then it scavenges them to the highest degree possible for technical know-how and IP. It's happened with heavy technology companies, it's happened with electronics companies, it's happening with car manufacturers. And yet they are still all drawn to China by their money-grubbing little hearts. I wouldn't be surprised at all if in the long run most of these western corporations won't benefit much or any at all from that mythical Chinese exploding consumer and workforce base. But they will lose a lot of their technical advantage in the process, when all of a sudden they find themselves competing in their own home markets with either cheap and cheeky clones of their own products, or with cheap products heavily influenced by IP they so willingly handed to China as the price of doing business there. Of course, in their minds that will only happen to their competitors, not to themselves.

    3. Re:Is "insourcing" a word? by demachina · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I find the whole thing terrifying.

      Of course the Chinese government is behind and it is a plan. It the high tech version of what they've been doing to manufacturing for a few years now. Undercut manufacturing in the rest of the world especially through low labor costs, the rest of the world gives up and moves all their machine tools, manufacturing capibility and technology to China, the rest of the world becomes completely dependent on China for manufacturing and they can so start to jack up their prices because they no will soon have no competition worth mentioning.

      The end result is one giant American or European company after another is transfering the crown jewels of their intellectual property in to a country that has complete disdain for intellectual property rights and enforcement. Once its all transfered and Chinese nationals are the ones doing all the new development the foreign devil companies are going to be completely expendable and expended.

      Its a great strategy for catapulting yourself from a technology backwater where you are mostly reverse engineering and soldering to global technological dominion.

      The stupidity of American politicians and business leaders is truly amazing especially when they are blinded by greed.

      --
      @de_machina
    4. Re:Is "insourcing" a word? by smallpaul · · Score: 4, Insightful

      How is a dictatorship that allows capitalistic enterprise "the Left"? The central idea of "the Left" is more equal distribution of income. China is becoming more and more unequal. That's why today's China appeals to neither the freedom-loving Right nor the equality-loving Left.

    5. Re:Is "insourcing" a word? by Tackhead · · Score: 3, Interesting
      > China's economy is becoming more and more capitalistic, but China is still politically and socially very much a state-run nation. The increasing captilism is part of the government's plan to bring the Chinese economy to the forefront of the world, and I tend to believe that this surge in R&D is just as much a deliberate strategy on the part of the Chinese government.

      And it cuts both ways: The West still has a political requirement to appear free and capitalistic, but is increasingly becoming more statist. The increasing statism is part of our governments' plans to consolidate power in the face of declining domestic R&D capabilities. (An undereducated population's easier to control, so why not outsource the R&D, and bring the profits back home, in the form of earnings to shareholders, and taxes on the profits and any income distributed to shareholders? Spend the taxes on making sure the non-shareholders have enough cash to buy the cheap goods you're making offshore, and everyone's happy!)

      As a fringe benefit, we get to beta-test the new surveillance and data-mining techniques on a population not subject to the few remaining privacy limits in the West, and to see how various methods of social control work against various groups of unreliable social elements.

      50 years ago, or even 20 years ago, that model wasn't viable; most states that tried it wound up collapsing under the weight of their own bureaucracies. East Germany was probably the worst example; there were so many people filing records for STASI that there was nobody left to design or build the new toys.

      > Frankly, I find the whole thing fascinating.

      Ditto. China seems to have achieved the social stability and unity of purpose normally associated with totalitarianism, without sacrificing the rising standards of living afforded by capitalism. It's actually a pretty cool model.

      (Which is a good thing, because it's the model we'll probably end up with whether we think it's cool or not :)

    6. Re:Is "insourcing" a word? by Yokaze · · Score: 2, Informative

      > and the German economy in the Nazi era was healthier than it had been since WW1

      Actually not. The economy was booming, but largely to the fact that the government was spending massive amounts of money on projects, like building the Autobahn, rearmament, representative buildings and events. All money, which they actually didn't have, but lend. Mostly from countries, which they later invaded.

      IRC, Speer himself, later Minister for Economy under the Nazi-Regime, noted, that this economic policy could only have one goal: war.
      Otherwise, it could be expected that the massive spending would lead to an economic collapse, since the money in circulation had no corresponding economic value.

      --
      "Between strong and weak, between rich and poor [...], it is freedom which oppresses and the law which sets free"
    7. Re:Is "insourcing" a word? by Brian+Stretch · · Score: 2, Insightful

      China seems to have achieved the social stability and unity of purpose normally associated with totalitarianism, without sacrificing the rising standards of living afforded by capitalism. It's actually a pretty cool model.

      Oh yeah, really cool.

      I still think Hong Kong had the best model, right before the ChiComs took over. Minimalist but competent government, simple 15% flat tax (complexity == corruption when it comes to laws), and at least near-American standard of living. Damned if I know how the system could be replicated.

      The West still has a political requirement to appear free and capitalistic, but is increasingly becoming more statist.

      Sadly I have to agree here, but I disagree with the reasons. I'd blame an overabundance of lawyers (and the resulting defenses against them) and the natural tendency of bureaucracies to grow and their members to vote themselves more resources. Too many Republican politicians (including our President) have given up fighting these trends and are trying to co-opt them instead (the "No Child Left Behind" act, etc). It's driving right-wingers like me nuts. Remember the 1994 "Contract with America"? We lost, statism won.

  4. This should serve as a warning to US lawmakers ... by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 4, Insightful

    ... to lift technology export restrictions. Right now. All of them. (Okay, with the exception of classified military research -- but we should also take a hard look at what's classified, and why, and whether keeping it classified does any good.) Once upon a time, when the US and its European allies were the only source for high tech, this policy made a certain amount of sense on national security grounds. But now, the restrictions only serve to weaken national security, by hurting the technology base in the US -- or are simply annoyances to be worked around by companies like Microsoft and Oracle, which are theoretically US companies but are in fact loyal only to themselves.

    --
    The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
  5. The irony by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The irony of the "google beating search" is that it's being done in a country that heavily censors the internet. I wonder what they might use a powerful search engine for...?

    1. Re:The irony by teal · · Score: 5, Insightful

      That was exactly my thought. Why would they want a better search engine since they would be censoring a lot of it anyways. Maybe the idea is by building a better search engine they can do better censorship.

    2. Re:The irony by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I suspect that Microsoft's definition of "better" in search engine terms looks a lot more like the Chinese government's than Google's does. Just a thought ...

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
  6. Within 5 years? by Trigun · · Score: 3, Funny

    "within five years China could overtake Britain, Germany and Japan as a base for corporate research, leaving it second only to the United States."

    And within ten? Maybe we can do their tech support for them. Outsourcing's a bitch, but it works both ways.

    1. Re:Within 5 years? by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 2, Insightful

      More likely, they'll be "outsourcing" to those areas of China which, right now, are effectively still living in the Middle Ages. Coastal China is now very nearly First World, but they've got a lot of Second and Third World inside the country to work with. And they're patient.

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
    2. Re:Within 5 years? by gears5665 · · Score: 5, Insightful

      do you speak or read chinese?

    3. Re:Within 5 years? by Trigun · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Not only are they patient, they are controlling resources. They do not have destructive competition as we do here. If competition is good for the economy, they keep it. If it is bad, they simply repurpose a company. There is no redoubling of effort for no perceived gain.

      As an additional caveat, they get to completely skip the industrial revolution, but get all the benefits. They didn't have to invent and refine the assembly line, the cotton gin, the milling machine, anything that would increase production. They simply bought them. And when they couldn't buy them, they threw their biggest natural resource at the problem; their population.

      It's socialist capitalization, and unfortunately for us, it's quite effective!

    4. Re:Within 5 years? by ThosLives · · Score: 2, Interesting
      It's an odd thing that most "good capitalists" forget: cooperation is actually better than competition. The trouble is, generally it is only competition that drives people to cooperate...go figure, eh?

      And, when you're China and can manage to get your billion-plus population to cooperate...you pretty much don't have anone that can effectively compete against you. It is really quite genious houw they worked that out, even considering the social hardships that we consider them to have (for who are we to tell others what is and is not a hardship anyway?).

      --
      "There are a dozen opinions on a matter until you know the truth. Then there is only one." - CS Lewis (paraprhase)
  7. Bad news for US by CommanderData · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Growth of the R&D sector in China is so rapid that 'within five years China could overtake Britain, Germany and Japan as a base for corporate research, leaving it second only to the United States.'

    Great, and within 10 years they'll probably surpass the USA. That is the direction everything's heading- outsourcing the skilled, high tech, and R&D work is going to hollow out the US economy until it collapses in on itself like a neutron star...

    --
    Urge to post... fading... fading... RISING!... fading... fading... gone.
  8. Better than Google? by tyler_larson · · Score: 4, Insightful
    ...Google-surpassing technology comes from a group of '10 researchers ... working on new ways to drill deep into the Internet and select and organize the information found there.'

    Sorry to say it, but I really don't find anything dissatisfying about the way Google selects and organizes information found on the Internet. Rarely do I ever even look at the second page of search results, because the first one always has the information I was after.

    If Microsoft wants to beat Google, they're going to have to pick a different venue.

    --
    "With sufficient thrust, pigs fly just fine. However, this is not necessarily a good idea...."
    RFC 1925
  9. Drill down? by Jeff+DeMaagd · · Score: 2, Funny

    Is the announcement trying to be buzzword compliant?

  10. This is Good for World Peace by tealover · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Many people make fun of Nixon, but his Sunshine Policy with regard to China has really helped China and the world. Can you imagine China as closed and belligerent as North Korea ?

    And the other thing is competition is good for everyone.

    --
    -- You see, there would be these conclusions that you could jump to
    1. Re:This is Good for World Peace by DAldredge · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Do you know how many of the countries that germany, in WW2, attacked/invaded had major economic ties with germany? Most of them.

      It has happend before, and it will happen again.

  11. But they can't even form acronyms! by YetAnotherName · · Score: 5, Funny

    Western languages like English use alphabetical glyphs which are combined to form words, which can recursively combine to form acronyms and abbreviations.

    By in China, Mandarin, Cantonese and other dialects are all written using ideographs, where one glyph represents a single word. As a result, it is impossible to form acronyms. And as a result, technological progress is impossible.

    Now, where's my company acronym dictionary again?

    1. Re:But they can't even form acronyms! by Mordibity · · Score: 2, Funny

      > Now, where's my company acronym dictionary again?

      It's under your TPS report.

  12. Figures. by NoMoreNicksLeft · · Score: 4, Informative

    In other words, they don't want to have to pay american or european researchers fat salaries.

  13. Money goes where... by Duncan3 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    All money flows as fast as possible to where it can grow the fastest.

    Think you can double you money fast in US stocks? Fat chance. But in China companies are growing like crazy.

    The US has peaked because everyone is already consuming at 110%, about set for a complete economic meltdown. China has a billion poor people, just waiting to spend all their money on stuff, and they don't speak English. *gasp*

    That and a PhD researcher will cost you like $US 200/month.

    --
    - Adam L. Beberg - The Cosm Project - http://www.mithral.com/
    1. Re:Money goes where... by DAldredge · · Score: 5, Insightful

      First, most of the poor in china don't have enough money to by more than 3 suits of clothes.

      Second, the Banking system in china is flush with bad loans and, if something isn't done, it will colapse. Either way, it will be very painful to fix.

      Third, china is in the beginings of a major energy crisis.

      Forth, what do you think will happen when all those poor peole realize that their 'leaders' are reaping all the profits?

      Fifth, what happens to those stock holdings if China ever nationalizes our investements?

      The world isn't a nice place, and neither is China. They do not like the US or Europe that much as, as soon as they can, they will rid themselves of us.

    2. Re:Money goes where... by evangellydonut · · Score: 2, Informative

      First, the Chinese government recognizes the problem. Doesn't mean there will be a solution soon, but its at least recognized. I think its something that can be turned around in 30-50 years time, just have to have the right person to do it. (In fact, I had a long discussion with my father about it recently, and I'm personally very interested... just need to learn more about the agricultural field)

      Second, banking system went through MAJOR reforms among other things. Hundreads of billions of USD were injected into the 4 major banks to write off bad loans, and for the first time, Bankruptcy laws and personal loans are allowed and taking off like crazy so that the bad loans will be repaid as much as possible

      Third, the energy crisis is overstated. 60% efficiency was the operational efficiency of most foreignlly invested plants back in the late 90s (around '99). The problem isn't lacking of energy as a whole, but rather routing power to the general public. Combined with the nuclear plant strategy (Clinton and Jiang's agreement, China stop selling Nukes to Iran and other countries, US aid China in nuclear power), China's problem isn't as big as some make it out to be

      Fourth, the poor people and everyone and their cat knows how corrupted the government is, but at least the poor people have no way to organize. In all 5000 years of Chinese history and 8 major empires, none except arguably the Ming was formed by pesant revolt, and that's due to the fact that Yuan wasn't a Han government. It simply won't happen.

      Fifth, China is too entrenched in WTO and other capitalistic reforms to nationalize those investments. The greatest legacy of the Jiang administration was the WTO bit, which probably came closest to a revolution because most didn't and still don't recognize the long term impact of it. Jiang's biggest achievement was to use Zhu as Preimer, who will go down in Chinese history books to be one of the greatest leaders of China (along with Zhou, Deng, and Mao...)

      China is a rapidly changing place, and the speed of evolution is WAY too fast for most people to keep up. Until China's wings gets strong enough, which will be heavily dependent on Korea, HK, and Taiwan's technological advancements, we will infact get rid of the westerners...

    3. Re:Money goes where... by hackus · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Very Interesting.

      You raised some good points.

      Also, if you look at how China is investing that money, they are propping up US securities as well.

      That makes me wonder, if China fails to buy US government securities, because of a banking collapse, what will that do to the value of our dollar with a record 384 Billion deficit?

      Not a pretty thought.

      -Hack

      --
      Got Geometrodynamics? Awe, too hard to figure out? Too bad.
  14. Is it really any surprise? by FerretFrottage · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Considering that companies (MS, IBM, et al.) are patent whoring (whether be defensive or strategic in nature) in the US and reverse engineering is now considered to be a crime in most cases, it is stifling innovation. The US is now a sue-society where money talks and lesser companies/individuals are being held back my the corporate oligarchy.

    Add to that the "bad stigma" associated with stem cell research here in the US...it's no surprise to me that the R&D in the US is declining and increasing in the world where people are less shackled by legal systems/lobbyist (now shackled human rights saved for another discussion)

    --
    "Look Lois, the two symbols of the Republican Party: an elephant, and a fat white guy who is threatened by change."
  15. Kylin and China development by tod_miller · · Score: 3, Interesting

    China Tech News has great articles about the hotbed of activity there.

    And Kylin is supposed to be a windows, linux, unix and *BSD and MacOS beater ! Interesting stuff!

    After the 2008 Olympics people will wake up to a reality, how advanced China is! I think it is great! Lets hope China becomes a huge adopter of linux! :-)

    How many Chinese /. do we have? To keep up, I suggest we all Learn chinese characters!

    Looking forward to 2008. See you there!

    --
    #hostfile 0.0.0.0 primidi.com 0.0.0.0 www.primidi.com 0.0.0.0 radio.weblogs.com
  16. Raise Your Hand by ackthpt · · Score: 5, Interesting
    Raise your hand if you were surprised by this. Really.

    Over a decade back China placed great emphasis on education in technology, now with a large pool of talent to draw from the country is in a great position to harness it's own technology future, as well as that of other countries.

    Meanwhile in the US, students care about being cool, having the latest toys and what others think. Only nerds actually study.

    Perhaps chinese youth will catch up to the slovenly and egocentric ways of the west. Some chinese diplomat, back in the 1800's said something to the effect of 'China already has everything and needs nothing, what can Europe offer to China?' Well, the answer was Opium. Maybe the next opium craze in china will be western fashion, television and SUV's.

    --

    A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
    1. Re:Raise Your Hand by currivan · · Score: 3, Interesting

      One question I've never seen an answer to: Why is China attracting so much more foreign investment than India? To an outsider, they both seem to put the same premium on science and engineering, and they both seem to have large pools of cheaper labor. Yet China has several times the dollar amount of foreign direct investment.

      Could it be because India is a democracy and at least partially looks after its rural communities and environment, whereas the autocratic Chinese government can promise businesses protection from labor unrest and environmental regulation? Or are the Indians too protectionist with regard to foreign ownership?

  17. Re:The irony: In Communist China by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It's pretty obvious what a censoring, Big Brother state wants do with an extremely powersul search engine:

    In Communist China, the search engine looks for YOU!

  18. Cheap labor, but no IP protection by winkydink · · Score: 2, Insightful

    After a few big companies get burned by having their IP stolen by the Chinese, I suspect that the lure of cheap, highly educated labor will wane.

    --

    "I'd rather be a lightning rod than a seismometer." -Ken Kesey

  19. Re:its about time... by fiannaFailMan · · Score: 5, Insightful
    i can't think of a single thing to date the chinese have ever created that has benifited humans.
    Gunpowder. Rockets. Astronomical records dating back to the supernova that became the Crab Nebula.
    --
    Drill baby drill - on Mars
  20. So what by Frequanaut · · Score: 2, Funny
    We've got FASHION WEEK here in the good old U.S OF FREAKING A!!!!!

    Let's see THAT in China!

  21. So what is this "advanced technology" anyway by ahfoo · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I'm not a pessimist about technology, but I'm disappointed in what has passed for technology since, say the 1960s. As they say --where's the flying cars damnit? It was supposed to be like radio, black and white TV, color TV, high speed Internet, holographic immersion, direct neural interface and beyond already. It's 2004! What happened? It's practically the same as the seventies.
    You know, when the iMac counts as a technological breakthrough things are slow. No offense to the Mac lovers, but it was more of a design breaktrhough than anything. That's just one of many examples of that same thing where it's a new style as opposed to a radically new technology. Cars get this treatment all the time. The differnce between the new model and the old model is the freakin' plastic brake light reflectors. That's not an advance. That sucks.
    The Internet itself is another example. Just because a series of factors made it seem to emerge suddenly, it isn't really the case that it happened suddenly at all. Mostly it was just a matter of merging rather dated defence research into the private sector. Same with a lot of chip designs. It's not really all that amazing or recent. It just took a long time to make it your way.
    And as for CMOS process tecnologies and the whole Moore's Law thing. Give me a break, that was not and is not really about pusing the edge of technology as much as it was about markets being controlled by only a few players being able to afford to compete.
    Immersion lithography which is part of what is making China so hot was experimented with decades ago and abandoned because it didn't fit the business plans of the likes of Intel or IBM at the time.
    So, when I see this stuff about China being the new "technology research hotbed" it doesn't strike me as being all that meaningful. It's the new manufacturing center for chips. So what.
    I mean besides CMOS chip technology which is already very, very mature its hard to point to real major technology that has been developed in the last forty years with any serious economic significance. Okay lasers, though for the most part just the small ones, have improved a lot and small motors are more reliable. Anything outside of IT though? Even MEMS is still mostly about IT. There's promises about ultra efficient fuel cells and nanotubes and such but there were promises forty years ago as well. They even had better promises back then. We're still building houses out of wooden sticks for crying out loud.

    Technology outside of IT moves unbelievably slowly.
    So, if China is where the chips are going to be made then naturally you'll have a lot of designers there making consumer products, but is that really a technology research hotbed? I'd call it more like a designer extravaganza.
    I do hope it could be otherwise, but I don't know. Something tells me we're still going to have internal combustion autos a hundred years from now.
    However, like I said, I'm not a pessimist. I think the revenge we will get is that we'll live incredibly long lives so we will eventually see the flying cars, space elevators and what-not. We'll just have to be very patient. All I expect out of China is cheaper PCs. As if they weren't cheap already.

    1. Re:So what is this "advanced technology" anyway by kylector · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You make some good points. Where are the flying cars predicted 30-40 years ago? With the "pace of technology" they really should be here. At the very least, super fuel efficient automobiles should be here. What's holding them back? Ah, dare I say it, I feel like such a conspiracy-theorist when I do...

      My purposed reason is because of corporate America. The bottom line is about money, not about furthering technology or civilization. The international oil industry would be significantly smaller right now if we had super fuel efficient cars. They knew/know this, so they're doing (and did) everything in their power (which is a lot) to slow down that pace. Case in point: When you're in Chicago or NYC, what is the best way to get around? The L/subway. Everyone knows this. It's cheap and very quick and easy for navigating large cities. So why aren't those sorts of mass transit options available in cities across the country? Because of lobbyists funded by the oil/car industry, lest they lose market share. Lest people realize that mass-transit really does work and even more cities adopt it! One could argue that they're simply not feasible in cities that are more "spread out" or don't have the same sort of downtown, but I would argue that the city planners early on designed it all that way from the start. Most cities were designed to be traversed by cars, not mass-transit. I'm sure that this was often on purpose because they really did think cars were better, and sometimes it was on purpose because the oil/auto industry had funded/bribed them and it was part of the "agenda".

      Is that far fetched? Perhaps. But I think it can't be underestimated. There is big money in oil and auto, but not really in mass-transit. In fact, mass-transit tends to be a public entity that doesn't exist to make a huge profit, only to pay for maintenance, operations, and expansion. If no one can get rich off it, no one wants to pursue it. The same reason that most people stay out of science and research fields: you can't get rich from it! And that's what most people care about. And by "most people" I don't mean Americans, I mean people around the world. Everyone. Everyone wants to be rich and live the high-life. That goal used to be directly linked with bettering society, but now we see society as "sufficient" and don't care to better it, only to get rich and enjoy it now.

      This post isn't meant to be an "America/humanity sucks because they're greedy bastards", it's simply meant to purpose a theory as to the change in the pace of technological development. It's not even meant to be a "corporate America" bashing post, because corporate America is made of people like you and me who got to the top. Somewhere along the line some of them, not all, changed from being idealists who wanted to further society to only wanting what's best for their pocket book.

  22. One reason: scarcity of women. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    The "one child policy" coupled with the practice of killing females newborns and fetuses has created a scarcity of women to distract the males. With no women to be chasing, there's nothing to do but work.

  23. You didn't listen to Arnold. by asoap · · Score: 5, Funny
    You are obviously wrong here. If you had listened to Arnold at the Republican convention you would already know that this is not a possibility, because... well.. because the Governator said so! If you don't like then your just being an economic girlie man!!!!

    Personally, I agree with you, I just don't think Arnie will though.

    -Derek

    --
    Treat me like a marketing stat, and I'll treat your movie like a series of ones and zeros
  24. Re:Bad news for US (USA USA USA) by gosand · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Great, and within 10 years they'll probably surpass the USA. That is the direction everything's heading- outsourcing the skilled, high tech, and R&D work is going to hollow out the US economy until it collapses in on itself like a neutron star...

    And maybe then, people in the US will FINALLY realize that the US is not the center of the universe.

    And yes, I am a born-and-raised American. I am just so friggin sick of this idea that the USA is the greatest country in the world and that it always will be. It isn't a big surprise that the "rest of the world" will catch up to and probably surpass us in lots of things. Think automobile production in the 70s. Think electronics. Think military. We are so used to being bullies and living in our own minds that we have forgotten the rest of the world. How many times have you heard something like: "France doesn't like our politics? Screw 'em, who needs the French anyway?" I have heard it way too much. The US is probably the least worldly nation on the planet. (that should be)

    Not to start a flamewar, but this is what the Bush administration has been basing its entire existence on! And it hasn't just been Bush, it has been our entire government over the last XXX years.

    Unfortunately, it will probably take something catastrophic like a shift in the tech sector, or even worse some military shift to wake people up in this country.

    --

    My beliefs do not require that you agree with them.

  25. Re:This should serve as a warning to US lawmakers by catherder_finleyd · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Actually it should serve to make US lawmakers ask hard questions about US Companies "Offshoring" R&D to China. China is a major long-term security threat to the US. Giving them a major economic-techbological base "hands them the rope they'll use to hang us!".

  26. Well, we did this to ourselves. by ErichTheRed · · Score: 4, Interesting
    This is going to be interesting to watch. The US has been de-emphasizing education for so long that I don't think we could catch up to a rapid growth spurt like this without serious intervention. I don't blame companies for reasoning that China probably has 100 times the well-trained engineers/scientists who will work for less.

    One of the major problems is that we don't have enough people who are willing to pursue basic research, or who are intellectually up to the task. Someone has to step up and explain to students that science and engineering aren't dead end career paths! Not everyone can be a lawyer or investment banker, and almost no one can be a rock star or sports hero. Unfortunately for us, China still has central planning, and can dump everything into a project that it can (see the Great Leap Forward for an example.) Communist countries are well-known for forced industrialization efforts. The government could let the peasants starve for a few years and become the number one science power on the planet if they wanted to.

  27. Comparative stats by bitswapper · · Score: 4, Interesting

    China .vs. US
    GDP $6.449T .vs. $10.98T
    GDP Growth 9.1% .vs. 3.1%
    Inflation 1.2% .vs. 2.1%
    PerCap Income $5000 .vs. $37,500
    Phones (LL) 214M .vs. 186M
    CellPhones 240M .vs. 140M
    Internet Users 59M .vs. 159M
    Internet Hosts 156,53 .vs. 115,311,958
    TV Stations 3240 .vs. 1500+
    Population 1.2B .vs. 2.9M
    Pop. Growth .57% .vs. .92%


    Interesting numbers (from another post I saw here). Maybe the most telling is how the average person makes $5000 (US Equiv), but how many more cellphone there are. Does this mean there is a higher willingness to adopt new technology in China? Or do they just like cellphones more than 'we' do? Maybe they don't have to put up with Sprint....

    1. Re:Comparative stats by servognome · · Score: 2, Informative

      It's more a reflection of poor land line infrastructure. Many "poor" countries have high use of cell phones because it's the only way the people can get service.
      Pop. Growth .57% .vs. .92%
      How are we ever going to catch up with such a low rate of population growth. I volunteer to do my part in helping improve our numbers, /. hotties contact me. :)

      --
      D6 63 0D 70 89 81 BB 8E 7B 7C 5F 5D 54 EA AB 73
    2. Re:Comparative stats by Kiryat+Malachi · · Score: 2, Informative

      Relative percentages, China vs. US

      Landline phones: ~20% vs ~60%
      Cellphones: ~25% vs ~50%

      --

      ---
      Mod me down, you fucking twits. Go ahead. I dare you.
      (I read with sigs off.)
  28. Re:Research Assistants by 7-Vodka · · Score: 2, Insightful
    oh dude. By my reckoning they are treated horribly over there.

    We have this one chinese lady working as a research assistant here. Every time she's doing minor experiments she freaks OUT like we're gonna beat her if she does something wrong or the test is invalid.

    Seriously they must send researchers who make little mistakes in for electricution torture or something down there.

    --

    Liberty.

  29. WTF? by taustin · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Porting a software package to Chinese is "advanced technology research"? Writing a new search function is "advanced technology research"? I don't see any other examples of what this "advanced technology research" consists of, other than Nokia moving its programming operations to China, which is also not "advanced technology research."

    "Within five years China could overtake Britain, Germany and Japan as a base for corporate research, leaving it second only to the United States."

    Yeah, maybe, if you define "corporate research" as "learning how to use ten year old technology."

  30. Riiiight by A+nonymous+Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The evil communist Chinese geniuses planned this going back to Mao and continuing with the Gang of Four and Deng and so on. Keep the masses low in power so labor costs are low so we can sucker the western world into outsourcing and thereby lowering themselves economically by raising us economically.

    Riiiight. You've sold me on that idea, sonny.

    I got offshored, and it's a bitch finding a job. I don't like it. But outsourcing and offshoring are a natural result of a free market, and if I believe in a free market when it comes to steel and cars, I'd be pretty hypocritical to suddenly stop when my own ox is being gored.

    Repeat: outsourcing and offshoring are natural parts of a free market.

    You know what I like best about having a global economy? It encourages cooperation and reduces the chances of war. The Chinese are learning that trade --> booming economy, and they like that. Sooner or later they will realize that huge primitive army is best converted to gainful employment.

    The US used to know this, until Shrub found a golden opportunity to finish Daddy's war and help his oil buddies. The US is now going to learn it again, just as Microsoft has taught the rest of the computer industry that playing with Microsoft doesn't involve a level playing field, and Microsoft finds it harder and harder to find partners. Coalitions of the willing require partners, not the old style teamwork where the leader cracks the whip and the team pulls harder.

    1. Re:Riiiight by demachina · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "planned this going back to Mao and continuing with the Gang of Four and Deng and so on"

      Actually no, it started after Mao and the Gang of Four died. Your rhetoric here is just stupid. Its became the plan of the current leadership when they deduced the obvious, they couldn't beat the west militarily or idealogically but they have the one thing needed to destroy the West economically, a huge underpaid, oppressed labor pool, versus the West where labor is expensive.

      "Repeat: outsourcing and offshoring are natural parts of a free market."

      If it were a truly free market I might agree with you but it isn't.

      Exhibit A the Chinese manipulate their currency and peg it at an artificially low rate so their labor and goods are inherently cheaper, at least until they've destroyed all their competition. Thats who you win an economic war, just like Microsoft did, you undersell all your competition until they collapse and when they are gone you can charge as much as you feel like. If you want free markets the first prerequisite is the Chinese have to let their currency float so the markets decide what their currency, goods and labor are worth.

      Exhibit B if you want free markets that are sane they have to respect intellectual property. They don't, they routinely reverse engineer machinery designed at considerable expense by others, sell knock offs at a fraction of the price and put the company that designed the product out of business. They also look the other way when software and media are pirated wholesale.

      I'm sorry friend but you really are a sucker to think that what is happening is just A-OK. You've fallen for globalization propaganda. Globalization benefits multinational corporation, its going to lead to devastation for working people. Sure you can buy stuff cheap at Walmart but that won't help if your unemployed or getting an ever declining wages and benefits. Fact is nations exist to insure the economic well being of their citizens. There is no rule that says you have to put all the working people in your country in to poverty in the name of globalization. Trade barriers were there to prevent other countries from dumping, and economic manipulations that would otherwise allow them to destroy your economy.

      As for your delusion that it makes the world safe from war, just wait till you see the kind of blackmail leverage the Chinese will have on the West when they can destroy Western economies just by shutting off the container ship traffic, and have a massive pool of U.S. dollars that can be used to destabilize the U.S. economy. If the Chinese want to regain control of Taiwan, they will soon have the leverage to do it without firing a shot. The Chinese are also working towards a position of economic dominance that can be coupled with, not instead of a powerful military. They will soon have the money and technology to build weapons that match those of the U.S. and combine that with 5 fold more boots to put on the ground.

      --
      @de_machina
  31. Re:its about time... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    Gunpowder. Rockets.

    That benefited humans.

  32. microsoft at 2004 siggraph by peter303 · · Score: 2

    I was impressed with the number MicroSoft Asia authors at the 2004 SIGGRAPH Meeting in Los Angeles last month. Something like 12% of the papers. Its very hard to get a paper accepted at that meeting- over 80% are rejected.

    The research was solid, but not not super creative. There were things like you might do in a 3-D version of Photoshop, etc. The heavy duty mathematics came were still in papers from Stanford and CMU.

    The big mystery is when MicroSoft is going release products from its impressive R&D lab. Most of its products are boring copycat stuff like the recent MS-Tunes.

  33. The rest of the story by Brandybuck · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Here's the rest of the story. One of those multinationals listed bought my company three years ago. Then last year they started bragging up their Asia division, and hinting that we were the bad guys because we weren't coming out with innovative products like they were. Well we finally got one of those "innovative" products in the shop and started poking into it. Turns out it was essentially *OUR* old product with a new skin!

    I've got nothing against my company lowballing itself, but it really pisses me off that they're insulting the goose the laid their golden eggs.

    --
    Don't blame me, I didn't vote for either of them!
  34. Re:its about time... by freedom_india · · Score: 4, Interesting

    I recall a TIME special magazine 1995 which was devoted to China as a whole: it says Gunpowder, Rockets, Dams, Silk, Tea, Finance, Strategies for War, Papyrus, Writing, Commerce, Printing, Banking was invented by China long before Europeans came down from trees, and long before US of A existed.
    Don't show your ignorance of the world by mimicking Dubya. You are neither the President, nor his Lackey.

    --
    "Doing what i can, with what i have." ~ Burt Gummer
  35. What about the Green by phobos13013 · · Score: 2

    Being as rampantly anti-american as i am (aka liberal) i welcome a future challenge to american political/economic hegemony. But looking at China's environmental history as evidinced in this book, including the mass devastation that occured in the three gorges dam project and the fact that China has allowed for themselves to become a major tech dumping ground for the worlds unwanted 386s and floppy drives and the like as became big news over two years ago. Perhaps this isnt the best thing for China and the worlds environmental health. Lets hope China's future bring both technological revolution and acknowledgement of environemtal respect!

    --
    ...and it should be known by now
  36. *YAWN* by Stickerboy · · Score: 2, Insightful

    ...and in other news, the USSR surpassed the US in aerospace science and technology in the 1950s with the launch of Sputnik. Experts predict that the Soviet emphasis on technical education and its outstanding ability to centrally marshal resources to a purpose mean grave times ahead for the US.

    Five decades later, where would you rather be living? The former Soviet Union, or the US?

    --
    Light a fire for a man and he'll be warm for a day. Light a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
  37. Re:Competition in Nano/Biotech can only be good!! by Grishnakh · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Competition can only be a good thing (after all, it is what cpitalism is built on).

    The problem, and the reason why so many Americans are worried about all this, is that this is not a competition we will win, and we already know it.

    With more people working on nanotech and biotech and stem cell research, the right wing in the US can only back down on issues like stem cell research,

    And why do you think that? The religious right takes the positions it does because of irrational religious beliefs (when was religion ever based on rationality?). They don't care if the USA turns into a biotech backwater; all that matters is that they're "right", and that they can push their morality on the rest of us. You don't see the Islamic fundamentalists trying to turn their countries and regions into world-class high-tech hubs; they want to impose strict religious law (which includes stoning women to death if they allow their arm to be seen outside their bourqa) on everyone under their control, even if that means turning those places into societies with less technology than the Ancient Greeks had.

    so we will have to stop wasting, what, 200 billion on wars in iraq, and start spending this money on fuuture technologies like nano and biotech, for the future is life extention, just look at the massive market out there,

    And what makes you think this is going to happen? Americans are happy to spend billions on wars with no justification. From the latest polls I've seen, it looks like Bush is going to win the next election, so that means a majority of Americans approve of his actions in Iraq. Sure, there's a huge market out there in the nanotech and biotech fields, but there's other countries out there that are probably going to be the ones to capitalize on them, not the US.

    to develop these new technologies requires brainpower and both china and india have much more potential brainpower that for instance, the US has.

    Yep, and our kids are being failed by our pathetic education system, and the smart ones that get to college are staying the hell away from the tech fields, for good reason: there's much better (more stable, better paying) careers out there, which you don't have to worry about being offshored.

    The fact is, the USA is going downhill very fast. The downfall of the tech industries is just the start; pretty soon, other countries will realize that we just don't have anything to offer them, since they'll have all the technology, manufacturing capacity, etc. The only thing we'll have is silly IP laws that let companies patent things like 1-click shopping. Our economy is based on a house of cards, and pretty soon everyone else is going to stop believing in the things that allow the US to keep its house of cards propped up. The best thing to do is to plan for the collapse.

  38. Re:Bad news for US (USA USA USA) by Vancorps · · Score: 3, Insightful
    You can't possibly be serious. First of all, the reason the U.S. grew up so fast was because we cooperated, we put protections in place and built off of them. Now for France, what was D-Day all about? The reason the U.S. has always been a technological super power is because everyone from all those other countries immigrated here and contribute both to our culture and the technology base. We have all the same advantages of people from other countries because we have those very same people.

    No the U.S. is not the center of the universe but we are certainly the center of the population that inhabits this earth. Our diversity is our strength and you dramatically and astoundingly underestimate it.

    Also, where do you get off saying the country always bullies everyone? Last I checked we waited until Pearl Harbor to get involved with WW2. Yes there are examples that support your conclusion but the fact that in the average American donates more to charity than the average citizen of any other country.

    Also, by definition the United States is worldly. Our citizens come from every country on this earth.

  39. Re:Bad news for US (USA USA USA) by Vancorps · · Score: 2
    Ouch, should have ready that before submitting.

    I was stating that the fact that the average american donates more money than the average citizen of any other country suggests that we are inherently not bullies. It has been this way since the 50's and continues to be the trend.

    You might notice all of my references are dated in WW2 because the current Bush administration is indeed what I would call a bully.
  40. Haven't we seen this before? by Kphrak · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Disclaimer: I'm not an economist, and I think economics is boring as hell. Real economists, please correct any of the points I screw up.

    For those of us over 20 years old, you might remember another Asian economy that was steamrolling us. Everyone was complaining that the US was really going under this time, and fingers were pointing at all our shortcomings compared to that economy.

    They've figured out a way to repeal or circumvent Adam Smith's laws. Our education isn't good enough. We work harder, not smarter. We don't work hard enough. We watch too much useless TV. We don't appreciate the power of multimedia. We aren't an ancient enough culture to appreciate the strategy of business. We're buying too many of the other country's products. We're selling too much of our real estate. We aren't pragmatic enough to give up drugs/religion/sexual habits/hobbies/music that holds us back.

    Does anyone remember this attitude? I seem to recall people saying this about Japan when I was a kid. Anyone remember those guys? They're still recovering from an economic slowdown that lasted about 15 years. But they were pretty worrying at the time. They were an economic bogeyman -- Better work harder, or the Japanese will 0wn us. I recall a sarcastic commentator on some of the pushes for diversity education, "Diversity training is essential for the global marketplace. We've got to push for understanding and appreciation of other cultures. So we can beat hell out of the Japs."

    I'm mentioning this because I see people in the thread saying all the same stuff we used to say about the Japanese. "There's nothing we can compete against them in. It's because we're conservative (it would be 'liberal' if Slashdot didn't lean to the left). It's because we're lazy." This attitude is not surprising; it's natural to assume that something that seems huge today is going to be even bigger in the future. It's why all William Gibson's futuristic books imagine a world dominated by zaibatsu.

    Although I do believe that software patents, draconian laws regarding intellectual property, weird political bans on scientific research, etc are going to hurt us in several ways, I have trouble believing the extent of the gloomy scenarios imagined by Slashdotters here simply because I've lived through at least one of them. Really, all of us have lived through another, opposite one: The dot-com era. Remember how everyone was saying "It's the new economy! Everyone is making millions from web design and advertising! We're all going to keep getting richer, forever!" This, too, is a result of basing tomorrow's predictions on a literal interpretation of today's economic climate.

    I'm sure China will end up dominating one or another sections of the market, and I'm sure a lot of blue-collar workers (such as call-center workers; they may have been "support engineers" here in the dot-bomb age, but let's face it, they're no more engineers than 1920s Ford factory workers) will be displaced. This happened the last time an Asian country figured largely in our economy. But most of the posts here rely on 1. The fallacy that economics is a zero-sum game, and 2. The assumption that we've got absolutely nothing to offer because China can manufacture many products more cheaply. Personally, I suspect that a glut will occur on some of these items (just how many curtain rods do you need, anyway?), and the laws of supply and demand will assert themselves.

    The Japanese weren't magicians. They hadn't beaten supply and demand any more than anyone else. They make some great products, dominate in several fields, but they aren't going to make a world empire. I think, in time, history will show that the Chinese aren't any better magicians than the rest of us.

    --

    There's no sig like this sig anywhere near this sig, so this must be the sig.
    1. Re:Haven't we seen this before? by dcmeserve · · Score: 2
      ...you might remember another Asian economy that was steamrolling us...[Japan]

      A lot of good points. I'd just point out one problem with the comparison, and that's relative population size: The U.S. is something like 2-3x Japan's population. China is 5x the U.S. population. Granted, a huge portion of those are poor and uneducated, and will remain so for quite some time; so knock it down to the same 2-3x factor.

      I wonder if a somewhat better comparison would be back at the dawn of the industrial age -- the fledgling U.S. vs. England, early-to-mid 1800's. The British Empire had made all sorts of advances in manufacturing (textiles, etc.), but the U.S. leapfrogged them, leveraging the known technology. And the U.S. had maybe 2-3x England's population at the time (I'd need to check on that, but suffice to say it was significantly more).

      --
      "Orthodoxy is unconsciousness" - Orwell
  41. Re:Bad news for US (USA USA USA) by Bendebecker · · Score: 2, Insightful

    What is happening is China is growing strong off of us. It's like a parasite, its sapping our current power to feed its own. The big shift your thinking about? That will be the end, when China no longer needs us and drops us like a hot potato. Just look at the currencies - if the chinese ever decide to stop tying their currency to the dollar and instead decides to fly on their own, our currency will plummet and theirs will skyrocket. They are in a much better economic position than we are. Much better and it will only get better as time progresses. So why don't they drop us? Because they still need us. A lot of people have fooled themselves into thinking that they will always need us. They can't imagine a global economic model were we are not the center of the universe. Right now, we are the only market capable of absorbing the amount of goods China wants to sell. That's all we are to the chinese: customers. We aren't business partners, I don't understand why people can't get that through their skulls. There was a time when china's economy was dependent on what we did. In five years, that will no longer be the case. In five years, their economy will be the one in control. Yet our politicians have fooled themselves into thinking we will always be the dominant economy (even as it shifts towards China). In 1996 my global studies teacher said that when China awoke as an industrial power, watch out because unless we were real careful we wouldn't even stand a chance of competeing with them. We have elected people that not only don't realize the extent of the problem, they refuse to acept the problem even exists. I know its cliched to say so but there is a parrellel here with ancient Rome in one respect. The ancient Romans believed that Rome was invincible and eternal. They were sure of it. When Alaric and the goths sacked Rome in the 300's AD, it almost caused the collapse of their society. Now 1700 years later, we find ourselves in a similiar situation. Everyone thinks the US is invincible and eternal. I can't wait till the chinese prove us wrong, this time not through military actions but economic conquest. Its funny really, we invented economic imperialism (the concept that if you control a country's economy, you in effect control the country without ever having to put a man on the ground.) Now we find the chinese using our own tactics against us.

    --
    There's a growing sense that even if The Future comes,
    most of us won't be able to afford it.
    -- Lemmy
  42. Re:its about time... by dutky · · Score: 4, Informative
    Some anonymous (and abyssmally ignorant) coward wrote:
    i can't think of a single thing to date the chinese have ever created that has benifited humans

    How aboutfor starters?
  43. Re:Bad news for US (USA USA USA) by Grishnakh · · Score: 2

    Yes, we offer the world a lot.

    I was with you up until this point.

    What exactly do we still offer the world? There's still some tech here, but it's moving away rapidly. Manufacturing is all gone, and engineering is fast on its heels.

    I think the only thing America is still good at is producing food in huge quantities, and blowing things up. So I guess if you mean that we offer the world cheap food, and bullets and bombs if they piss us off, I'll agree with that.

  44. Re:its about time... by Tyler+Durden · · Score: 4, Funny

    Ok, but besides gunpowder, rockets, astronomical records, the printing press, martial arts, paper money and toilet paper what have the Chinese ever done for us?

    Oh, and besides silk too.

    --
    Happy people make bad consumers.
  45. Re:Competition in Nano/Biotech can only be good!! by NewtonsUrge! · · Score: 3, Insightful

    This comment really downplays America's consistent strength in innovation. If the kids are so smart, they wouldn't be running away from direct competition in the fields that matter the most for America's economic survival. They would instead be applying their brain power to developing the next best thing(s) as Americans always have.

    I think the fundamental problem is one of values. American kids shun competition because the hippies told them that life should be easier than that. American kids consume significantly larger quantities of illegal drugs than their Chinese and Indian counterparts because the hippie baby boomers have created a society (aggressively supported by their media monopoly) which promotes such behavior as the only way for a kid to be cool.

    When last was a high school chess champion the most popular kid in school? American culture has been engineered such that all kids are ensnared (when they are young and impressionable) by a media that programs them to want to become the next Eminem (or worse). It's really no suprise therefore that the Chinese and Indians are making the most of these opportunities, since their traditional cultures value intelligence and hard work, instead of superficial glitz.

    When the nation is full of kids who are all out to compete over who's the biggest thug in town, or who takes the most drugs, it leaves little room for legitimate competition in areas that will actually benefit their long term survival.

    Again this is the fault of the fcukin' hippies. You know it's true..

    --
    my other .sig is really witty
  46. Re:What? by Minna+Kirai · · Score: 2, Insightful

    price growth MUST BE at zero or the economy will eventually be unsustainable

    "Free-market" does not imply sustainability.

  47. ohhhh, I dunno.... by zogger · · Score: 5, Interesting

    ...this baby boomer hippie was the second in my circle of friends and aquantainces to own a computer, the first with a lot of transceivers, and the first with alternate energy, I got solar PV panels and a wind genny.

    I know it's fun to generalise, but "alternative culture" also lends itself to innovation, dreaming, rejection of the staid status quo, etc. It's not just drugs and losers. Way back, when we shifted from being called "beatniks" to "hippies" WE were the ones to point out ridiculous illegal wars and draft slavery. We were the first ones to say "wait a minnit, why are all these global international corporations running our nation?" WE marched and took the gas on behalf of non priveleged minorites and in support of equal gender rights. We'd say stuff like "Hey, what do you mean we don't have full property rights, we want to build a yurt instead of a boring square stick frame box you insensitive clod!" And so on and so forth. Poison free food? Certainly wasn't the suits pushing that. Medical care that WORKS and don't cost an arm and a leg and don't all go to enrich global medical monopolies? Check who was a big part of that movement. And now to get to normal slashdotisms, who's pushing open source the most?

    So, how about a little credit along with the deserved dissin, every generation and culture got good and bad to it.

  48. US foreign aid is a myth by Cornelius+Chesterfie · · Score: 2, Informative

    "I was stating that the fact that the average american donates more money than the average citizen of any other country suggests that we are inherently not bullies."

    The average american donates LESS than the average citizen of most developed nations in terms of percentage of salary. The total donated is more, yes, but that's only because you have higher salaries.

    http://www.foreignaidwatch.org/print.php?sid=792

    Now look at this list. Who exactly is the recipient of your "foreign aid"? The biggest amount of money goes to buy Israel new tanks to destroy Palestinian villages with, or to Egypt as a guarantee that they leave Israel alone, and so on and so forth. Looking at that list, I see very little humanitarian aid coming from the US, it's all kickbacks to allies and 3rd world dictatorships that choose to support you.

    But your (false) beliefs are understandable.
    http://cfrterrorism.org/policy/fo reignaid.html

    "A 2001 poll sponsored by the University of Maryland showed that most Americans think the United States spends about 24 percent of its annual budget on foreign aid--more than 24 times the actual figure."

    It must be nice thinking you're the center of the world.