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Win the X-Prize Cup

fitten writes "CNN is reporting that the X-Prize competition may become an annual event. From the site: 'Hoping to build on the momentum sparked by a private rocket plane's dash into space, supporters of opening the heavens to civilians are turning the winner-take-all race into an annual competition that might further fuel imaginations.'"

29 of 240 comments (clear)

  1. Bad idea by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I think each year would water the thing down. Much like any other contest that is expensive.

    Why not every 4 years? Even 3 would work. This way, it would give people more time to work on even better designs, perhaps even alternative fuel methods for reaching space.

    And that would rock.

    1. Re:Bad idea by zenofjazz · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Actually, the idea at this point, I think, is to give the other teams, (some of whom were VERY close to being ready to fly) a reason to keep working towards the goal.. if you delay it 3-4 years, then what does Davinci have, to keep them going? Motivate the other teams to launch, and prove their technology as soon as possible, and show that they're better (or equal to) Scaled Composites. Of the 20 odd teams that were competing for the X prize, 2-3 are more or less ready to try... and several more could be, within another year. The more space-related stuff stays in the news, the more "commercial utilization" of space is going to be top of mind. Tourism... Microsat launches, you name it.

      --
      -- All That's Evil in the Geek Space ... Allthatsevil.wordpress.com
    2. Re:Bad idea by Rei · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Wake me up when they get anywhere close to orbit and the associated huge technical hurdles that SS1 doesn't even come close to addressing.

      I know people like to refer to it as a stopping point, but what sort of stopping point is a craft built of epoxy with a heavy 250 ISP engine? Exactly what are they going to reuse - the ship's computer?

      It's just advertizing and a joy ride; it's not some sort of stepping stone (at least in the technical sense).

      --
      "She was out of her depth in a shallow pool." -- Peggy Noonan on Sarah Palin
    3. Re:Bad idea by stormfish · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It's all fun and games until someone reaches escape velocity.

    4. Re:Bad idea by N3WBI3 · · Score: 2, Insightful
      I think this should be worked in. But they are considering that they are making over all altitude a part of the equation I think they are covering that. Keep in mind it took these teams years to acheive what they have which is a fraction of the altitude needed for orbital flight.

      What they should do is run the "x-cup" for five years (maybe raise the ceiling for qualification every year) and start another prize for orbital flight now (x-prize2). I dont know how this would affect the draw of one (x-cup) or the other (X-prize2).

      --
    5. Re:Bad idea by f00zy · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Maybe I'm wrong, but I think other teams will keep working because the prize doesn't really matter. What matters is building a vehicle to hit space. That, in and of itself, seems like a big reward. Then add in the space tourism bucks.... The X-Prize was a carrot, but not a particularly big one given the costs involved.

    6. Re:Bad idea by JQuick · · Score: 5, Insightful

      You claim that this is not a stepping stone toward any useful goal, that's it's "just advertising and a joy ride". Nothing less than cheap access to orbit is worthy of interest.

      I agree with you that short, sub-orbital flight is only directly good for joy rides, and advertising. Beyond this however I disagree with you entirely. No offense, but I think you're missing the point.

      Why? Because advertising and joy rides are the key to unlocking a revenue stream which can move us toward more useful goals.

      Currently the only significant source of direct income from the private sector comes from launching satellites. This is a large source of revenue, but one which is neither very elastic, nor one which places demands on those who provide lift to significantly change the status quo. The cost of launching most satellites is but a fraction of the total cost. Adding together insurance, interest payments and other opportunity costs for capital, they are extraordinarily expensive objects even if launch costs are ignored. The market is narrow and capital intensive.

      The result is that the market puts little pressure on firms to lift significantly larger payloads, either measured in volume or in mass. Incrementally reducing cost per pound on existing orbital launch systems would not be likely to increase the demand significantly. The risk of modifying these systems incrementally is simply not justified by the risk or the return on near term capital investment. Worst, no private income stream currently encourages development of manned missions at all.

      The X-prize cup goal is provide direct incentive for innovation in manned space transport. It does so by providing a mechanism for directly infusing private capital into manned vehicles in ways that are much more flexible, much more elastic, and which result in pressure on potential space transportation designers to increase both aggregate and per launch lift capacity. The first prize was designed to promote competition in developing an inexpensive re-usable sub-orbital vehicle for carrying passengers. This will generate income in 2 ways. Advertisers will pay to be associated with the product and services provided by commercial users. Passengers able to afford a the ride will provide a significant on-going stream of revenue.

      The passenger revenue is highly elastic. at the price of $200K per head, about 6,000 have already expressed serious interest in riding Virgin Galactic. 1.2 billion is nothing to sneeze at. If the price were $100K, that number would rise rapidly. As the price continues to lower, more and more passengers will be able and willing to afford even a sub-orbital jaunt. I'm not wealthy, but I would certainly drive crappy used cars for 5-10 years in return for a trip to space.

      The X-prize cup is an annual event, Competitors will vie each year to travel greater distances downrange, achieve higher altitude, launch the most times during the event, carry the largest payloads, etc. The organizers expect that an X-prize competitor will achieve orbital capability in 5-8 years. That apparently would interest you.

      In the past 30 years we've gone backwards not forwards. Aside from X-prize vehicles (both Scaled Composites and the 20 or so other contenders), the only manned space vehicles we have are based on designs form the 1960s and 1970s. Huge lift capacity died with apollo.

      Without advertising and joy rides to both fund that development and promote competition, how do you propose we get there?

  2. Not as interesting as the Bigelow $50 mil prize by mOoZik · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Bigelow's $50 Mil Space Prize

    The Slashdot editors refused to publish my submission, but I think this is much more interesting than repeating the X-Prize year after year, despite the innovation that will come from such an endeavor.

  3. Hey by lucabrasi999 · · Score: 2, Insightful
    maximum number of passengers per launch

    Hey, can I put my wife on that rocket?

  4. What about safety? by BrewerDude · · Score: 4, Insightful
    Does anyone else think that this is a high-profile accident waiting to happen? A lot of the events mentioned there are about pushing the evelope in terms of speed or capacity. Once enough teams start participating, I'm wondering whether some will sacrifice their safety margin in an attempt to one-up the competition.

    The last thing we need is a catastrophic accident that causes a knee-jerk overregulation response from congress.

    1. Re:What about safety? by kfg · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I'm wondering whether some will sacrifice their safety margin in an attempt to one-up the competition.

      Of course, hang gliders, surfers, rock climbers, downhill mountain bikers, blue water sailers, et al do it, and die, every day.

      So long as they're privately funded and aren't a danger to the general public, 'tain't nobody's business but their own.

      God protect us from NerfWorld(tm).

      KFG

    2. Re:What about safety? by metlin · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Hmm, ofcourse accidents can and will happen.

      Consider how air-travel started out - there were quite a lot of crashes initially, and it took a while before things stabilized. And in the process, we learnt a lot on how things worked.

      See, until mistakes are made, there is no scope for us to learn and improve. The safest paths always lead down to stagnation :)

      Ofcourse, I'm not saying that we need to go and let people die in the process - merely that unless we try, we would not know. Maybe we will fail occasionally, maybe we will not - but there can be no progress without effort, and no success without the occasional failure.

      Just my opinion, ofcourse.

    3. Re:What about safety? by SiO2 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Does anyone else think that this is a high-profile accident waiting to happen?

      This is interesting. Consider the disasters that befell both the Columbia and Challenger shuttles, while also taking into account the extensive and redundant safety precautions NASA takes with each launch.

      How many redundant systems does the shuttle and associated support technology have? I once told my boss that we needed two redundant clusters to ensure that our mission-critical application that essentially runs the university where I am employed would be fail-safe. He replied, "We're not NASA."

      Considering the bureaucratic plethora of checks and blances that NASA has in place to ensure safety and the relatively vast resources at NASA's hands, I have to wonder what these startup, entrepreneurial companies are using to ensure safety.

      As one poster noted, it's not about winning the X Prize. It's about licensing the IP. Are these teams loose cannons? If so, good for them. Thanks for pushing the boundaries. However, I question the ethics of putting the general public space tourist at risk for a buck.

      That doesn't necessairly mean that I wouldn't sign up for the trip if I had the disposable funds.

      SiO2

    4. Re:What about safety? by Joecuba · · Score: 0, Insightful

      Fsak safety! Tell you what, you know that the people that fly these things also build them, manage the company etc? These people are producing very interesting designs with not a 'lot' of money (in going-to-space terms), then getting in and riding them into space! This is the kind of shit that rich, intelegent people should be doing with their time, its so much better than a lot of other crap that goes on in the world.

  5. Novelty will wear off by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    How many people watched Big Brother 5?

  6. Next Stop, Orbit? by tpconcannon · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I guess earth orbit would be the next logical step in this venture, although, attaining orbit is also the most dangerous part of space travel. Actually returning from orbit is more dangerous, as there would be the heat of reentry to deal with. I have a feeling that this would be when we start to see lives lost in this competition.

    --
    I found the "Any" key.
  7. This is great but ... by Brigadier · · Score: 4, Insightful



    From what I've seen or read, the solutions to the x-prize challenge have been built for that specific purpose. example being Rutans space ship was disigned to fly 100km then return safely. I think to foster more innovation the challenge itself has to become more challenging. How about an orbital flight next. Then a moon orbital. This will allow designers to build on existing designs as opposed to coming up with the best and cheapest way to fly 100km. I sort of equating it with making lynnburgs flight a yearly event ..whats the point

    1. Re:This is great but ... by Carnildo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The point of the one-year cycle is, at least right now, to give the rest of the X-Prize teams something to aim for. DaVinci and Canadian Arrow are both less than a year from their first flight, and most of the serious teams will be able to make it in two years.

      In the longer run, it shouldn't be that hard to, say, scale SpaceShipOne up to where it can carry ten passengers, or to give it enough crossrange capability to reach New York.

      --
      "They redundantly repeated themselves over and over again incessantly without end ad infinitum" -- ibid.
  8. Wonderful idea! by Stoutlimb · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I think it's a great idea... There's a huge list of failed X-prizes, and they might risk being scrapped, instead of flown. That would be an awful shame, and a waste. I would like to see all of them fly eventually. (Except maybe the really dangerous ones.)

    The other reason I think it's a great idea is because even though Spaceship One got their first, it won't ever go much further. That design was designed for one thing, to win the X prize. A modified version of it will never go anywhere useful. Some of the other X prize contestants could concievably scale all the way to orbit. So that way, setting the bar a bit higher each year is a great way of getting maximum development of the space industry for the prize dollars offered. If we ran this prize several years in a row, each time higher, I'm certain that Spaceship One wouldn't be able to hold on to the cup.

    I wonder who would be next?

  9. Take the Hint by COMON$ · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I think more areas of study need to take the hint here. Give people incentive and you will get solutions. Why not hold similar competitions for other products such as Fuel efficient cars, Economical Housing, or any other useful tech advance. If we take this competitive road, will we see a new age of innovation?

    --
    CS: It is all sink or swim...oh and did I mention there are sharks in that water?
  10. Re:Vehicle Challenge by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Develop a zero emmisions vehicle able to travel 1,000 miles, carrying 4 people, minimum distance between stops being 200 miles. No stop may last longer than 15 minutes.

    Given a 10 million dollar X-prize, anybody could do this. But we already have a reward waiting for anyone than can mass produce one for $15,000, don't we? Don't forget though, you have to pass all the safety and performance criteria too...

  11. yearly? by glimmy · · Score: 1, Insightful

    if the contest is expensive than wont the same companies win year after year?

  12. Do your own challenge then by jeti · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The founder of the X-Prize owns a company that offers parabolic flights.
    The hype that the X-Prize creates will hopefully get a lot of people interested in the flights,
    which are cheap by comparison ($3k for a dozen parabolics).

    If you want a new contest for emission free vehicles, organize it yourself.

  13. NASCAR and Airshows by slew · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Hmm, there's been quite a few high-profile accidents in NASCAR and there hasn't been any overregulation response. Why would there be one here?

    Just yesterday, I saw on the news that during an airshow, there was a crash. Don't see congress legislating against doing hammerhead turns yet.

    What I don't understand is this notion that everything must be "safe". What's important is clear information, not safety, and for people to make informed choices...

    OF COURSE someone will probably sacrifice their safety margin in an attempt to one-up the competition, but then again, the pilots are generally in the best position to make this call (not congress). But remember the margin is there to protect against the unknown. You won't know where the danger line really is until you have a few data points to interpolate.

    Strangley, as with car racing, I see this as an opportunity to IMPROVE safety. No matter how good a designer you are, you can't think of everything so having enough experience with varying designs is really the best way to advance the safety of a device. Eventually best practices will emerge, and those that don't have them will either emulate them or get darwin'ed out of existence (lose sponsors, lose pilots either by expiry or quitting).

    Can't make an omlette unless you break a few eggs.

  14. No windows? by RCulpepper · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I seem to recall hearing that one of the biggest challenges in building a space vehicles, and one of the biggest components weight-wise, is the windows. IIRC, one of the Japanese companies developed a TV screen with resolution so high it was virtually indistinguishable from reality. What about wallpapering the inside of the craft with these and leaving cameras outside?

    One of the big reasons TV doesn't look realistic is that we can't change our focus between the foreground and the background -- but everything here would be so far away it shouldn't matter. And it would save a lot of engineering hassle, it seems, if not weight (because the TVs would weigh something, of course)

    --
    Always a godfather; never a god. -Gore Vidal
  15. Just an idea: by modecx · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I like the idea of a regular X event, but not necessairly all having the same goal.. That would just become obnoxious and boring, in exactly the same way watching Astronauts on the moon did in the 70's.

    Perhaps they need to go a different route: I suggest that there is a competition with no set time limit that would do exactly what the X-Prize did:encourage reguar people to try and do what is thought impossible, with engineering and imagination.

    Let's say that the next X-Prize was for developing a car that pushed the envelope on fuel efficiency a little higher, within a set limit. It would work just like the race to space; first team that beats the set mileage on a certain course with a car that qualifies for weight, wins.

    When one contest ends, another is anounced, and so on. This would be much more exciting to me, and no doubt to many more people.

    For one thing, trying to blow oneself into space is quite a technological and monetary hurdle. Not everyone can invest $20 million to win $10 million. Secondly, it will encourage advances in whatever feild they chose for the prize, which is good for the rest of the people that can't or aren't interested to compete.

    --
    Constitutional rights may be respected, repealed, or modified; but they must never be ignored.
    1. Re:Just an idea: by modecx · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Well, I do agree with you in that respect, big companies do put lots more into R&D than any small group of people could ever hope to compare to... But the problem with big companies (like the ones in Detroit) is that they're largely monolithic, and seem to actively discourage creativity within their product lines. Yeah, they do have their development branches, but I don't think they get enough exposure. They worked on hybrid cars, and other things almost twenty years ago, and technology hasn't changed in any signifigant respect to make them much more viable now then they were back then.

      Then there's the problem with engineers. Engineers are, in my opinion, programmed to all think alike, to recycle their old designs and thoeries into their new ones, and otherwise think inside the box. I'm working on becoming a mechanical engineer, and I've got to say that in general my peers and many of the real engineers I've come across suffer this problem, in addition to the general lack of Common Sense.

      I agree that perhaps a super efficint car is a little too closed ended. Everyone knows to use lightweight materials and how to make very aerodynamic shapes, etc. But putting constraints on the design would encourage development that could be used in industry to make all of our cars better. For instance, it could be required that the car be four passenger, with a certain engine output reqirement (thereby encouraging more power for less fuel consumption), and a set weight, as I indicated earlier. No doubt it's going to be a fair bit easier, and closed ended than getting to 300,000 ft. any way you can, but it's an example of an idea that I think might help more of us sooner.

      --
      Constitutional rights may be respected, repealed, or modified; but they must never be ignored.
  16. x-prize by f00zy · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Am I the only person in the world who thinks the X-Prize teams aren't in it for the money? Come on people. Some of this is basic reasearch, some is surfing for vc money, and some is just about doing it.

  17. NASA failed because of the bureaucracy by hughk · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Remember that both Challenger and Columbia were blamed on management errors rather than technical ones. The quote of your boss is reasonable as long as the management is aware of the risk and and the impact of a failure. A key failure of NASA is that the management didn't understand the problem.

    One thing going about these programmes is that they are much smaller and easier to understand. The management / engineering is also correspondingly smaller so there are less likely to be issues about what a 1% chance of catastrophic failure actually means.

    --
    See my journal, I write things there