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Does Redskins Loss Presage A Kerry Win?
Puny Human Nick writes "As mentioned before, the last home game the Redskins play before the election has predicted who will win since 1944. Well, the Redskins v. Green Bay game ended a few hours ago and it looks as though Kerry is going to win on Tuesday."
Of course, Baseball is the definitive method for predicting the outcome of political elections.
(?)
Computer Science is no more about computers than astronomy is about telescopes. --E. W. Dijkstra
...unless... can they tie in football?
As someone who watched the game it means that Bush will win the election and then it'll be overturned in favor of Kerry by the judges. That would be the exact parallel with the game.
Since the Red Sox won the Series the end of the world must be rapidly approaching.
"As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly." A. Carlson
oh yah, you must mean like Bush did in 2000. :-)
You would think that people with sport superstitions would have had some sense knocked into them after the World Series...
... not that I would mind Kerry winning.
Must've been keeping score on Diebold equipment.
"OH SHIT, THERE'S A HORSE IN THE HOSPITAL!"
Loves science, hates superstition... unless it agrees with their world viewpoint...
Wrong.
p
"In 1932 the Washington Redskins were neither the Redskins nor a Washington team: they were the Boston Braves, and they played in Braves Field, which they shared with the National League baseball team of the same name. On 6 November 1932 they won at home against the Staten Island Stapletons, 19-6, a result that should have foretold a presidential victory for the incumbent Republican party. Neither the Redskins' team name nor their predictive powers were yet evident, however, as President Herbert Hoover lost to his Democratic challenger, Governor Franklin Delano Roosevelt of New York, on 8 November 1932"
http://www.snopes.com/sports/football/election.as
What?
The Weekly Reader has also correctly picked the president for about the same length of time. They chose Bush.
I think I speak for at least three Slashdotters with mod points - whether they be Republican, Democrat, Libertarian, Green, Constitution, or Guns-And-Dope Party - when I pound out the following message in Morse code using my head and the desk:
"What the fuck? What the fucking fuck fuck?!?!"
That just means we're going to need several replays...er recounts to determine the winner.
But not because it predicts anything. Interresting because it allows us to discuss critical thinking. This is a perfect example of "post hoc ergo propter hoc" - a VERY common logical fallicy, also known as a "coincidental correlation".
Basically the problem is people frequently see something happen and ASSUME that something they noticed, or known about the prior situation MUST be the cause. - It gets better with increasing numbers (if the reskins game had only predicted the winner once its cute, but after 15 elections it has got to be right!)
Now the reason this is such a good exercise to use for this important critical thinking skill is because most reasonable people would already know that the redskins game predicting an election is absurd.
Comment removed based on user account deletion
The rule follows for the incumbent party, not just the incumbent president. That makes 17 data points now, possibly 18.
It's obviously just a coincidence, but an interesting one at that.
Also, I'm sure that if the Redskins won, we would have had the same story, and the same things would be said except with "Bush" instead of "Kerry".
What?
enough said.
go get it
The real reason Kerry will win is because the polls are very wrong. Just as generals always "plan to win the last war" the polls are showing methods designed to win the last election.
When they poll "likely voters" they ignore, among other considerations, people who have cellphones. AFAIK, they only poll over land lines.
Also, there's huge assumptions in the statistical breakdown of voting age. Young voters often don't care about the election and have the lowest turnout. However, many people are so worked up over this election and the results of the last one that I believe we'll see the highest percentage of young voters in a long time. Most younger voters lean more towards the left.
Thus the polls are skewed because their assumptions are totally wrong. Given that it's a dead heat in most polls right now, Kerry should come out ahead.
Unless there's some kind of cheating/manipulation of the election, but what are the odds of that?
Introducing the new Occam Fusion! Now with sqrt(-1) fewer blades!
Sigh...drawing causation or correlation from 5 data points is just sad. Kerry supporters are grasping at straws.
...sure helps to demystify curses with logic, but most people don't bother.
I think the sad thing is how seriously the Bush camp is taking this. While most everyone else is taking this as a "Ha ha! What a neat coincidence", repeating it tongue in cheek, the rabid frothy spittled Bush supporters have actually come out defensively regarding this (see your post, and many before it). Amazing.
There's been 17 elections since this 'pattern' supposedly emereged. At most, that means 9 times an incumbent was running. At most, that means 5 times the incumber lost when the Redskins did.
Huh? Firstly it's not a curse, it's a humorous coincidence. Ha ha. Secondly, RTFA - They're talking about the incumbent PARTY. Thirdly, your convoluted attempt at bringing "logic" to the table looks like it misfired - your logic is nonsensical.
It _is_ a pretty unlikely coincience....but unlikely coincidences happen all of the time.
I think you're reading WAY too much in this. Get out and vote, rather than saying who's going to win based on a football game...
Holy shit .. by the looks of these replies, you'd think you folks were on his Doctoral comittee and he just submitted this as his Disertation thesis ... ... sweet jesus, it's just a funny coincidence ...
...
... hey, there is no Santa Claus either so I don't want to hear about that weird deer you saw running around on your roof on christmas eve last year, either ...
It's an 'interesting' statistic -- an urban myth. You people are busting out with Chebyshev's law this, and according to Modus Ponens that
hey, news flash, you're not going to find the meaning of life encoded in the articles of slashdot
Wow
That's because Gore was foolish, and only demanded a recount in counties where he expected to do well. That's a dubious strategy anyway, and as you say, it turns out Bush would have "won" counting that way too. (Never mind that it's really a statistical tie and we all pretty much lose.) But when a _real_ recount of all state ballots was conducted by a consortium of newspapers, the results came out with Gore winning by over 20,000 votes. Too bad the Supreme Court didn't order that!
I am sorry, you have scored an incorrect answer. The real answer, which has been report to several times, but amazingly is ignored by people such as yourself is that Gore won the election in Florida. When the state wide recount was completed Gore simply had more votes that Bush.
T E. html
http://www.nytimes.com/2001/11/12/politics/12VO
I now return you to your normal delusion.
That's why a third party will never be viable..
You silly... Everybody knows a third party candidate wins whenever the Washington Generals beat the Globetrotters.
No sig
The apathy of the electorate, in *not* demanding better candidates from the major parties, has gotten us into a mess. The parties have no interest in *really* fixing things, because a fixed government is one that doesn't need to give handouts. But the handouts are what buys the votes of the uneducated/ignorant/lazy.
Let me be the first to say that we here at the Bush camp concede early to Kerry. It seems clear that due to this unfortunate turn of events that Kerry has won the election. As a side note, we should also point out that with the election already all but decided, you shouldn't burden yourself on election day with voting if it is an inconvenient, especially if you happen to be black, gay, poor, a college student, or a woman. So stay home. Nothing to see here.
"President Mitnick's first official act was to pardon everyone who had anything to do with his unexpected landslide victory."
Disclaimer: The opinions expressed are not necessarily my own, as I've not yet had my medication today.
May I ask what money you are referring to?
* Do you earn more than $200,000 a year, if you do: welcome back to 1999. Big deal. You just helped our country. If you earn less than that, you keep your tax break.
* Are you referring to premiums for non-privatized health insurance? That's why Kerry supports a cap on insurance payout: $30,000.01 and up is covered by government. This effectively reduces how much you pay for your insurance premium each year. Privatizing health insurance leads to misinformed citizens and patchy plans - backed by companies that could go under any second in the resulting big business competition.
* Are you referring to the war in Iraq which has cost over $120,000,000,000? Are you not concerned that nearly half of your taxes go to the military and fund this war? That's what is being deducted from your paycheck. Vote with your wallet.
So would a count of clear overvotes (where Gore was circled and also written in). The article you cited mentioned that, but didn't mention that the Florida judge was strongly considering counting these overvotes where the intent of the voter could be determined (since that was the Florida standard).
What is without a doubt true is that more people went to the polls in Florida with the intent to cast their ballots for Gore.
Ironically, diebold also manufactures ATM machines used in major US banks, and so far, we've heard few complains. why can't they duplicate that logic when creating e-voting machines ???
So that the people with the largest bank balances get the most out of the machines
As a slashdotter, I think we have the responsibility to actually listen to "Mosh" and act responsibly. The republicans can sink to their own filthy level of voter fraud and intimidation by themselves. There are two ways to stop them:
1) Get out the vote, and overwhelm any cheating the bad guys can do. That kind of cheating works great if the candidates are tied (which every wishful poll in the country would have you believe). The more people get out to vote for Kerry, the less chance cheating can throw the election. So don't go to those polls alone: bring your friends, family, and anyone else you can (without forcing, kidnapping, or bribing them, of course). Give Kerry a landslide from the people those polls don't count.
2) Join the efforts by various rights groups to help monitor and protect voting polls and voters.
Personally, I think Eminem delivered the true October surprise. He's right too, the coming of the King of Terror began in a schoolroom, it's reign should end there too, with the only real swing state that matters: the youth of America.
There is hope Kerry can win, and not only from sports omens. Leading Hindu astrologers and a noted Hindu mystic believe that Kerry is going to win, Bush will never again be president, and Kerry will end terrorism and bring world peace! The sun and the moon have even endorsed Kerry.
"The last hope is to fight by ourselves."
Belebera, "Mothra 3: King Ghidora Attacks"
dailykos has the details. The GOP doesnt like to lose.
ourvote.com has a site up and a hotline ready. See also: my earlier post on fraud and corruption in American politics.
I care who wins, but I care more about winning legally and properly. I care about every vote being counted. I wish more of my fellow countrymen felt the same way.
Bush's regime would have you believe terrorists just came to be 3 years ago. They don't want you to think about the fact that there have been terrorist attacks before and we didn't need things like the Patriot act to make ourselves feel safe....
Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity, though I'm not yet sure about the universe. - A Einstein
Dear USA,
We've decided to step in to fix a problem you seem to be having.
Unfortunately, the election of your President impacts many of us greatly. While it has been a source of considerable amusement to us in the past, recently we have become less tolerant of the outcomes it has produced.
Starting today, here is the amended process whereby a US president gets elected:
- US citizens get together to elect a US Presidential *candidate*. Your current options: Bush, Kerry, various others nobody cares about. Method: Toss a coin, spin a bottle, use the results of a sporting event nobody cares about. We don't care, so knock yourselves out
- candidate is put forward to the rest of the world to decide whether he/she/it is suitable. Their current options: winner of Bush/Kerry, "go find someone else". Method: secured regulated ballot process, as used in nearly all Western countries for many years without problems. Feel free to read up on it some time if you're interested
- results announced: "go find someone else"
- repeat approx 300 million times, or until point is made...
WE REALLY LIKE YOU AMERICANS, BOTH INDIVIDUALLY AND COLLECTIVELY. SURE, YOU DRESS FUNNY AND MAKE US LAUGH WHEN YOU'RE IN INTERNATIONAL VENUES, BUT YOU'RE REALLY NICE PEOPLE REGARDLESS AND WE LOVE HAVING YOU ALONG FOR THE RIDE. ON TOP OF THAT, YOU'VE GOT SOME OF THE REALLY SMART PEOPLE IN THE WORLD LIVING IN YOUR COUNTRY. HOWEVER, WHAT CRAZY SYSTEM LETS YOU IGNORE THE REALLY GOOD PEOPLE AND SPIN OUT SUCH LEADERSHIP CANDIDATES AS YOU MANAGE TO COME UP WITH?
Ahem, sorry about that. Anyway, please understand that these changes take place immediately, no correspondence will be entered into, yada, yada, yada.
Yours truly,
God (no, NOT yours, and not yours either. In fact you were all wrong, and what the hell made you think I'd give a stuff about you tiny little humans anyway?)
All of these polls (and especially the superstitions) are a crock of shit.
Is this the same Major who said he never saw an IAEA seal on any of the bunkers he visited? The same Major who said he blew up "munitions" and couldn't say if any of it was the high-grade explosives that are in question? The same Major who said he was at Al Qaqaa 5 days before the embedded KSTP TV crew shot video of US Soldiers at Al Qaqaa breaking IAEA seals, opening the bunkers, and examining the barrels of the high explosives still contained therein? Same guy? How can you conclude from his testimony that the explosives had been detonated?
Liberal (adj.): Free from bigotry; open to progress; tolerant of others.
I find it highly amusing, but at the same time disturbing, that the Americans since 9/11 have been shouting for terrorists heads on a plate while for many years before 9/11, and quite likely after 9/11 as well, collections has been and are being made in support of the IRA.
Do tell me that you actually realise the double morale in that...
Swedish, but resident in the UK since 1996.
Unless you earn > $200,000 a year, you should be safe. In fact, according to Kerry, you could be getting even more tax breaks under his administration. From the second debate--
All I know about Bush is I had a good job when Clinton was president.
so are you saying that it's GWB's fault that we did nothing before 9/11 (like a response to the first WTC bombing, the African embassies bombings or the Cole bombing)?
Nah, but what I'm saying is that you're full of shit.
Also: Norway and pretty much anything nautical.
From a purely economic standpoint, anyone who works for a living and votes republican is an idiot. They've been duped into voting "what's good for the country" instead voting based on their own situation.
For 2003 a single man making 28,400 dollars, and living in WA state (8% sales tax) he will pay 27% of his wages in tax. This assumes that 50% of what he makes will be spent on taxable goods, and that he takes the standard deduction. It should be noted that this same table gives the U.S. tax rate at 35% because it only displays the highest rate for countries with a variable tax.
According to www.worldwide-tax.com, if the same man lived in Germany he would pay 25% of his wages in tax. In Norway, 28%, in the UK, 30%.
The way I see it, the big difference here is not how much we pay vs. European countries, but what we get for those taxes vs. what people in European countries get for thos taxes. Free medical, free University level education, real Social Security. We get give two billion dollars to Halliburton.
Samsung took back my unlocked bootloader because Google wants me to rent movies. They're both evil.
If I had a million mod points, I'd mod all the "Kerry will raise taxes on small businesses" and "Bush is an imperialist" posts as off topic. It seems I'm in the minority so mod me to the bucket if you must. Yeah, I know, I must be new here and welcome to /. but doesn't the nerd-atrons, pulsing through your veins, find the /actual/ article at all interesting to comment on?
Let me save the submitters to the Politics topic some time. We can enumerate all the off topic responses and save reading time to thouse that want to read about the actual submission:
Dibold
Bush is an imperialist
Bush administration is incompetent
PATRIOT act
Bush stole the 2000 election
Counter: all recounts had a Bush win
Kerry flip-flops
Kerry has been consistant
Edwards is way under qualified
Kerry has his secret plans for everything
The problem w/ recounting only some votes is that it violates the Equal Protection clause of the United States Constitution.
While (logically) there's nothing wrong with recounting just those counties which are close enough to swing on the recount, legally this presents a problem because you are saying that the state has a more compelling interest to get person X's vote properly recorded than person Y's.
Unfortunately for Gore, this was a catch 22 (something the GOP won't point out I might add). While the legal side of things dictated that he had to recount every vote, the GOP was trying to stop the recount. If no recount could be achieved before the deadline (I don't remember the exact date but is was coming up fast) then Katherine Harris couldn't certify the election results. Without her certification the assignment of Florida's all important electoral votes fell to the overwhelmingly Republican Florida legislature.
Gore needed to try to expedite the recount process because a full recount could never be accomplished before Jeb and his cronies could toss the election to the legislature. While Jeb and co could have approached the Gore camp and said that they were going to stave off this maneuver until a full recount could be accomplished, no such approach or effort was made.
The legal decision was a formality, and the Court knew it. That's why if you read Bush v. Gore you'll discover that the Court goes to great pains to make sure the decision doesn't apply to anything else. Ever.
Killfile(TGK)
No trees were killed in the creation of this post. However, many electrons were inconvenienced.
I for one, hope that we can modernize the whole election system. We are worse than a 3rd world country. Which other developed country has as much problems with their elections as we do? Not a single one! You never see a court deciding the outcome of an election in any other 1st world country. Voter frauds? Unknown.
We also need to get rid of a system that only gives your vote importance if you live in certain states. I live in Florida and you all know the issues we have had and how important it is to vote here. If I had lived in Nebraska or South Dakota I could just as well have stayed at home and not voted since the outcome of those states are already set. Our election system is a leftover from the days of no communication and a different world. We are the most backwards country in the world when it comes to electing a leader, it's a disgrace to this country!
If you mod me down, I *will* introduce you to my sister!