Slashdot Mirror
Gartner Predicts Linux Gains In 2005
An anonymous reader submits "According to news in The Australian, Gartner research is predicting big gains for Linux from Microsoft in 2005, including desktop adoption in the public sector and banks. In fact, Gartner is also predicting that '40 percent of large financial services organizations will have deployed Linux' by 2005. Seems a little optimistic to me, but it is better than predictions the other way!"
I've done some contract work at some of these in .au, and yes, lots of them are indeed hoping to deploy Linux soon (some have already, but lots (particularly the larger ones) havent). Some might say they're a bit behind the wave, but some of these places are terribly ponderous.
Some big corps are taking a clear "wait-and-see" approach to the SCO litigation, and won't commit themselves until it's all cleared up and won't cause them any trouble.
40%? Yeah and Koalas will begin to use computers.
but it is better than predictions the other way
A pessimistic prediction can be spun today by saying:
"Gartner doesn't think much of possibility of Linux on the desktop"
An optimistic prediction (that the submitter thinks lies here), if proven optimistic will be:
"Linux adoption fails to meet expectations"
The latter is a bigger concern, so I disagree that optimistic predictions are better. More adoptions than expected is better.
Jesus was all right but his disciples were thick and ordinary. -John Lennon
Seems a little optimistic to me, but it is better than predictions the other way!
:)
I actually believe that this prediction will be accurate. What with the new Novell Linux Desktop, and open source getting headlines as it is (Solaris 10, for example), I don't think that this goal is so out of reach. Not to mention, I seem to recall a lot of naysayers about Firefox gaining popularity over Internet Explorer... and look how that turned out!
- dshaw
Does anyone still pay attention to Gartner?
All they are doing is annoying Microsoft so that they can get their monthly paycheck by producing a reverse statement.
They deserve no respect.
badness 10000
Gartner is just a stooge of Microsoft! Of course they are going to predict losses on the desktop for linux.
Oh, wait, you say they are predicting *gains*?
In that case, of course they are right!
This seems like a decent thing to happen, considering the rediculous ability Microsoft has in the "lacking" department. Their flashy gui's aren't impressing anyone anymore, and their bugginess seems to be annoying people to the point where they ditch the overpriced monopoly and go straight to a free OS like Linux. Hey, it's better than using Mac, but at least Microsoft makes the effort to repair their miscodes. I just hope more companies like GM and Codemasters lead the way with servers using Linux, instead of having those wonderful downtimes with Winblows.
But what are they saying. 40% of business will put up a machine running linux somewhere in their business. Gee.
I worked at several windows-only companies were I deployed linux. Typically something like the webserver. If you are talking +10.000 seats of windows +1 linux webserver then it still meets Gartners figures. Hell if it is 1 tech guy running linux and getting away with it it still counts.
Frankly predictions like these are there for the press because they need headlines. Microsoft with dos and later windows never had a year of the "........" breaking through. It was a very slow process for them to breakthrough and be accepted in business used to buy unix and mainframes.
The adoption of MS in the business can also tell you something about what Linux needs to be to get adopted.
Many people complain about Linux being to hard or not running on every piece of hardware they got but they forgot that Dos and Windows have the exact same problems.
Oh Windows runs on every piece of hardware inside business? All right, lets convert this all "apple" company to windows then without buying new hardware. Or this all "mipps" workstation company without buy new hardware. Oh, can't be done? Windows only runs on x86 hardware? This was actually a problem at times in the past, youngsters and old windows lovers just like to forget that their are other pieces of hardware then dells.
And if you think a bunch of dos machines was easier to maintain then a single mainframe with a set of terminals you are insane. Dos threw far more crap at the user then mainframes ever did. Yet the lesser options and increased maintenance were accepted because. Well I don't know. For some reason it seemed to make business sense.
And that is what Linux needs to be adopted. For its use inside the company to make somekind of sense to somebody who has the power to decide. It can be because they think it is cheaper, because they think that being locked into one supplier ain't that smart, because the staff that has to work with it prefers it, because they like the penquin cuddly look, because they want to take the MS salesslime on a tour through the department past the desk off the linux user and go "oh yeah we are really interestted in the tco of linux vs windows".
Gartner needs headlines as advertising for its services. News services need headlines. So long as this is true we will keep seing reports like "XXXX the year of .........". Just ignore. If you want further evidence, ask yourselve this. What was the year of the diesel engine, or the year of the jet engine. There was a time when trucks used petrol engines. Pinpoint the year this changed.
MMO Quests are like orgasms:
You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.
wow. heh. im glad to see somebody is so optimistic,
..fun stuff
about the growth of Linux adoption by small companies, and banks and everything else
it makes it an easier pill to swallow, to see something, community driven,
powering my bank, as opposed to somebody who is driven by greed
and potential wealth, as opposed to security and integrity
i could only hope, that this projection is atleast 1/2 correct and makes a hefty ~20%
jump in market share. whew. it'd make my day.
and do note, it isn't just "Linux" that is going to be doing this!
Open Source alone, is trending upwards. makes my year. for sure.
i guess that means ms will be filing more patents, in attempt to stiffle buisness.
thanks for the story. good reading. good news!
--kingpunk
when has popular opinion counted for anything..
Linux usage is bound to rise irrespective of the popular opinion, mostly because it only ever seems to get better..
Does anyone still pay attention to Gartner?
Lots of companies outsource their IT strategy research to outfits like Gartner. Sure, companies still reserve the right to make their own decisions, but they do listen carefully to what "Gartner sez" (yes, sometimes instead of thinking) and, frequently, researchers at Gartner have more time to do in-depth research because they spread the costs over all their clients.
They have to maintain some semblance of being unbiased, accurate, and useful to their clients, so if they parroted MS sales droid talk too much they would lose their credibility and their clients. But, you're right, there is inertia with the herd.
Predicting more Linux deployment is not going out on a limb by any means.
The harder prediction is to tell your Inquiring Clients exactly when and where Linux should be deployed to best satisfy their business needs, reduce costs, etc. By sticking to the Playing It Safe playbook, I expect Gartner to say "Go!" sometime after Linux is actually ready.
If Gartner told their customers to "Go!" before Linux was "ready" it would be a mistake for their customers to follow the advice, those customers would suffer, blame Gartner, not renew their Gartner contracts, and, most importantly, Linux would get a black eye by dissatisifed customers not wanting a Science Project IT infrastructure.
"Provided by the management for your protection."
Now theres some big insight from the folks at Gartner!
Thanks for pointing that out Capt. Obvious!
What a stupid fuckin' post! Really! And I predict M$ has more profits and iTunes sells more songs and Bush will piss off the rest of the planet in 2005.
There now get back to work you bunch of over-paid, white collar slackers or you ass will be outsourced to India...
Hey I here M$ is hiring in India!
If Gartner is making the bet that 40% of large financial institutions will have deployed Linux by 2005, they are making a very safe bet. There's what, 45 days left in 2004? Presumably, then, the 40% figure has already been reached or will be reached immediately. It's really no big deal to predict the state of IT 45 days in the future.
I'll make some predictions, we can see if I'm as accurate as Gartner. Microsoft will control more than 90% of the desktop market by 2005. Apache will run approximately 67.77% of all websites, by domain, by 2005 (plus or minus one percent). The Linux kernel will be on version 2.6.9.x or 2.6.10.x by 2005. Microsoft will not release any new service packs or new editions of Windows 2003 or Windows XP by 2005.
See, it's really easy! Come on, Gartner, try predicting MORE than 45 days in advance. Predicting 'by 2005' is just too easy.
Oceania has always been at war with Eastasia.
Check out Microsoft's Get the Facts" white paper library and actually read them to see what so-called "independent" researchers have been saying about Linux v Windows.
You'll be amazed if you go beyond the headlines that Microsoft and the researchers tag onto the papers. There are some seriously Linux-positive data in some of those reports, such as the ones from the Yankee Group about TCO here and here (links are to PDFs).
The text of those reports says things like "few companies are planning to migrate from Windows to Linux", yet the pie charts show numbers like 11% of companies say "We plan a total migration from Windows servers to Linux" and only 33% said "No changes are planned for our Windows servers".
You can also see statistics such as:
The headline that Microsoft puts in its white paper library pages for these reports exclaim "Few Plan to Migrate Windows to Linux" and "Switching from Windows to Linux 'Prohibitively Expensive, Extremely Complex, Provides no Tangible Business Gains'".
Then there are the papers that claim Linux costs more to deploy and support. What the MS headlines fail to point out is that the researchers basically say things like, "Linux may cost more now, but the prices will become competitive with Windows support soon". See the Forrester report here for more details about that.
The bottom line is that you can pull stuff out of context, twist it and spin it until just about anything can be made to sound as if it supports your argument. The "researchers" make it that much easier when they "interpret" data that is neutral or favors Linux to make it sound as if it favors Windows.
I guess it's easiest to be correct if you just say everything.
"Avoid employing unlucky people - throw half of the pile of CVs in the bin without reading them." -- David Brent