Massive Business Model Wars
Next Generation has an article up discussing the throwing down of the gauntlet that Guild Wars' business model represents. There is, indeed, more than just a monthly fee. From the article: "We're not the only ones in the industry looking at business models...If our competitors did this, would we be cheesed off? The answer is yes. We would view this model as one that might be used against us. So we wanted to be there before our competitors."
I like how getting to play the game you purchased with money is a "new" business model. Not merely a chance to then pay subscription fee's on top of the price you played for the happy meal manual.
Watch out world, getting a value for what you paid for is the new hot ticket!
John Walsh once found me while looking for some other kid. He was not amused.
I think the Guild Wars model is fantastic personally (although I think it has to be recognized that it's not being applied to a standard MMOG- Guild Wars is much more like Diablo II/PSO when it comes to the actual formating/instancing of the gameplay), but I'm not sure it'll really be used all that much. I mean, when you look at a game like WoW (one of the highest-price-per-month games out there, and of course, one of the most successful), where Blizzard literally has players distribute game patches themselves, regardless of the monthly fee compenstation, I just don't see any big MMO developers jumping ship anytime soon.
I am a player and I do enjoy that I don't have a montly fee. Is it new? Not to the PC space, but is very new in the MMO space. No one, before AreaNet, had run an MMO without a monthly fee - at least not on this scale. Even really bad MMOs had a fee.
I just don't understand how they can think that they have this *NEW* idea. I play my FPSs online for free and have been for a very long time. I don't understand why the MMORPGs have been different.
Oh that's right I, and many others, have been paying monthly fees so why wouldn't they charge. :(
Never Underestimate the Power of Stupid People in Large Groups.
One of the key business challenges Next Generation faces is revenue variability. While box sales of Guild Wars have been phenomenal, it is basically a point sale with unlimited support costs flowing behind it. Next Generation plans on making money to cover the support costs by continuously releasing expansion packs and/or new games.
One challenge with this model is that the company will have consistently growing support costs while revenue will be generated in large spikes. It is very difficult to gauge how much revenue a new game will generate, and without an accurate forecast the problems of scaling backend support grow proportionately. But the real danger lies in that in only takes one poor-selling game to threaten the company's future.
If Guild Wars has 20 million players, and Next Generation is eating all those support costs without a monthly revenue stream supporting it, what happens if the next expansion pack flops? Suddenly you have another 9-12months of support costs ahead of you with no real revenue to feed it.
The whole thing reminds me of the pager companies in the 90s that offered lifetime pager service for an initial flat fee. They enjoyed explosive growth, but as soon as the market saturated, it only took one month for their support costs (satellite bandwidth in this case) to sink them. The owners of the company pocket millions and the subscribers were left out to dry. I can very easily see the same thing happening to the Guild Wars installed base.
The lack of a monthly fee is the *only* reason I even tried Guild Wars. I've avoided all the MMORPGs mostly out of a fear I might like one and get sucked into yet another monthly bill that I didn't need. With Guild Wars, that isn't a risk at all. Not only that, it's actually pretty fun and very nice to look at! Although I admit I haven't played it in the last several weeks, I don't feel bad about that, because I'm not wasting money by not playing it. The obsession I had for the first week or so after getting the game more than paid for itself, so I feel I got my fun out of the deal and can freely go back whenever I have more time - be that tomorrow or 3 weeks from now. That's a huge bonus, in my book.
Additionally, I very much support their model as it encourages them to produce a fun game that you want to buy expansion packs and such for. They can't just sit back, get lazy, and let the money flow in each month. They have to actually keep working to improve the experience and build on it so that current customers will become future customers of their next release. That should do a much better job of encouraging innovation and quality into the future than a monthly-fee-based system would.
Hexy - a strategy game for iPhone/iPod Touch
I must be out of the loop, the last online game I played was star craft (3v3 nrmm like its my job)
Let me get this straight....you buy a game...with real money...which really cannot be played OFFLINE, and then you pay MORE real money to play it. Isn't that like buying a computer, and then paying a monthly fee to turn it on?
So how long until I don't have to physically get off my fat ass and buy a game, instead I simply download it and pay for it to suck?
i don't care
how likely is the one-time-payment seem for future ncsoft releases (like tabula rasa)?
*raises hand*
i'm [currently] hooked on blizzard. Diablo II. Price of the box and the expansion pack. It's an old game, but you know what? I got into it late because it was still around, bought a copy, bought a friend a copy, watched eight friends buy copies, and my team joined some online buddies a little while back for a group adventure as a change from the usual.
(Go ahead, tell me it's an old game, i'm crazy, just some n00b girl gamer, whatever. i'll wait.)
Done? Good. Here's my point:
They're still selling boxes. Granted, they've got other irons in the fire, but it got some of MY money. I don't think i'll be paying for subscription models. I would rather pay for upgrades and expansion packs... so that's what we're looking for now that we're in the market for a new game. (My team conquered Baal last night!)
Any recommendations?
"I'd say 'Have a good time,' but arson is still illegal.
Let's see....
Guild Wars offers an online gaming universe for the price of the box; and that's it. No monthly subscriptions.
and
NCSoft hopes to create a large enough fan base to guarantee sales of sequels and add-ons.
I don't see how no monthly fee equals "more than just a monthly fee". They've already said that you can play forever. If you want to buy the expansion, then you get the advantages of it, but if not, keep playing the game you bought. And this summer, they're putting out a mini expansion - Sorrow's Furnace. For free. Not to mention the weekly patches, fixes, new quests and the like.
I'm not an MMO guy. Far from it. I bought this because I wanted something like Neverwinter Nights, and I haven't been disappointed. Everything but the "cities" (which are basically chat channels and places to form a group) are personalized for you and your group. The only PCs you'll see outside a city are in your group of 4/6/8 people. It's damn cool. Might be enough to make me drop my sig.
"Sometimes a woman is a kind of religion, she can save your soul & set you free from all your sins" - Bad Examples
Could anyone tell me if Guild wars is playable on 56k please?
Thanks.
I like muppets.
I have to say that Guild Wars is an amazing value for the money. In addition to an awesome game, we get a heck of a lot more than most online RPG gamers. The developer, ArenaNet, lets a fansite interview them every single Friday. In addition, there is a substantial patch (much more than just bug fixes) almost every Wednesday (in the months that I've owned the game, they've missed a patch date twice, but both times, they had a large patch with new content and features the following week ). We also get balance patches (not that Guild Wars needs balance patches, another great point) and exploit fixes very quickly, often within a day after a problem is discovered.
The publisher (who also manage the servers), NCSoft is also amazing. I get almost no lag, and in hundreds of hours of gameplay, I've been disconnected once. Server downtime is measured in minutes per month. Because of the way the game is built, it takes less than 5 minutes to patch the servers and my client (over a cable modem).
I am proud to have paid money to two companies that display such a high level of service, especially since I'm not giving them a monthly fee. If they can maintain this business model, they will both be successful companies for a very long time.
When we launched in the U.S. we noticed there were about 20 million online subscriber gamers in Asia, about two million in the U.S. and about 200,000 in Europe, Garriott explains. Every time you move east, you lose 90 percent. How can we change that? Issues like broadband expansion are outside our control but we can influence genre expansion, appealing to new age groups, ease of play, and billing methods.
You can also change it by actually give us games at the same time as the rest of the world, with servers that doesn't make the experience feel like we're back in the 56K age.
I think it's a misconception to believe that 15 bucks a month buys you better service. First, as this article nicely points out, that if A.net sells enough copies, they can easily turn the same profit that a subscription service can. So both companies have the same money to spend on developement/content/patches. Second, subscription services have a trackrecord of being horrendous for a reason : the treadmill will make the adverage person forget about the payments. That gives companies like SOE and Blizzard the feeling that they can spurn the user base. Third, without the subscription, A.net is forced to create a product that people will come back to and buy expansions for through other means than the treadmill. Such as a quality product.
GW is not sustainable. I have been playing since beta, and really enjoy most of the game. However it simply will not hold up for long. The business model is based on expansions every 6 months... they already are going to be behind on the first expansion by a number of months. On top of that they have shot themselves in the foot while painting themselves into a corner by two decisions:
1. Expansions will not unbalance the game to players who do not purchase it.
2. Level caps at 20 which can be reached in 1-2 days quickly or about 1 month with normal play. (weapons and armor max out too at preset levels that are easily had by mid/late game)
While these seem like good things, it is a major flaw for longevity. If I buy the expansion I already know that I will not be able to grow my character any more than he is now, I will not be able to buy/find more powerful or unique weapons/armor, and nothing else will change much.
Why keep playing? What needs to happen is that PvP and PvE need to be separated (they are already bastardized and semi-split as it is) and PvE needs no limits and expansions need to progress levels and more and more powerful weapons, while PvP can stay balanced regardless of expansions.
I don't think expansions are going to offer much and people may buy one but I think that will be about it for Guild Wars. I hate to say it, but too many bad decisions have been made to date that all limit the longterm success of the game.
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In its attempt to grow the online gaming market, NCSoft's Guild Wars has turned the MMOG model on its head. U.S. CEO Robert Garriott reckons giant ambitions justify mighty risks.
Robert Garriott?? Bob Garriott?? Quite honestly, how could they miss something so large?? Its Richard Garriott (Dick to some).. Thousands of Avatars scream out in pain as their beloved Lord British gets called a common "Bobby". Honestly, how reputable of a "reporting" company are you if you can't even get the name right of the person you interviewed??