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Xbox 360 Launch to Face Several Hurdles
JamesO writes "Microsoft's J Allard has said that the Xbox 360 will be released in differing versions over the next five years. "It's something we're not ready to announce yet," he said. "I don't think it's a one-size-fits-all [approach] over the next five-year horizon." Relatedly JamesO writes "Microsoft is saying that anywhere up to 40 games could be released for the Xbox 360 during its launch period, but which of those will make or break the console's launch? Pro-G choose their ten most important Xbox 360 launch games. Not the ten best launch games, but the most important for the success of the Xbox 360."
The whole concept that drives consoles is that they are easy to use. You see the Xbox logo, you know you can play it. This idea has obviously degraded some with the online movement (not everyone will be able to play online), but this is taking it too far. When I buy a game system, there should be no compatibilty question. That's what my PC is for.
The average parent isn't going to know what to pick for their kid, and faced with a choice they might just turn around and pick up a console they know will be able to support any game on the system.
More experienced/older gamers might look at the inferior versions of the system as worthless, and will simply wait until the maxed out system comes down to a reasonable price. A good analogy would be with computers. The average slashdotter isn't going to go buy a celeron notebook (lets go with plain old celeron, when they sucked) when there are vastly superior Pentium M notebooks available. They will wait for the better system's price to come down. Maybe not such a great analogy, but hopefully it gets the point across.
It's a good idea to revamp the console over its lifetime, but it's not really a selling point for people buying the first generation. Either you get games which push the hardware now, but will work better on future, unreleased hardware (sounds like PC gaming). Or you get future games which work only on future revisions of the console, and are unplayable on the current generation. (sounds like PC gaming). Alternatively, you get generic titles which will work on the lowest common system. (ditto)
MS Flight sim is an example from the PC world. When first released, there's no hardware which can render smooth frame rates with all settings maxed out. As the hardware improves over time, the visuals can be pushed higher and higher until... the next version comes out and we start all over.
Hal Spacejock: Science Fiction with Nuts
No hard drive will seriously take away one of the advantagest the Xbox2 will have against the PS3, which also is planning on not having a hard drive. The hd comes standard on the current xbox, removing it now will only confuse the consumer base Also MS does NOT need to upgrade the optical drive at a later date to an HD DVD drive, unless the cost is as cheap a dvd drive. Why does Microsoft think that their plan of offering three to five different versions of the xbox will do anything but segment their own market is beyond me. Sony has always made on system and then figured out ways to shrink everything over a few years and then make money off of that hardware.
"Jeremy, you need to get to an internet cafe and cut and paste some appropriate sentiments about me from the world wide
I know that they haven't said much, but I've read between the lines and I can tell you everything you need to know:
"Guys, listen, the XBox 360 that you've all been waiting for . . . well . . . it's really just a PC with a graphics card that will be out of date next week." -- BillG
Evidence:
+ Unified SDK for PC and XBox game programming
+ XBox original is also a PC
+ Say no more, sir, say no more
Everything that MS ANNOUNCED would be in the system is still in the system. If you were so dumb as to bite on hype from random "gaming press" sources, well, why is it MS's fault that you don't know any better?
I don't know about you, but for me that list seems HIGHLY biased to the american market. Why the hell would the rest of the world worry that much about a NFL game to justify it being the SECOND PLACE on that list??
Same goes to Perfect Dark Zero being the top game on that list... Well, I surely love FPS, as most americans and europeans. But what about the asian market? That list is way too "western world"-focused IMO. And we all know what is the whole point behind Xbox 360: take over Playstation's home market.
I am. Then again, I have vowed to buy all systems since the dreamcast came out so that doesn't really mean much. All this noise about different versions of the xbox360 is bullshit. What you buy on launch day is what games will be coded for throughout the life of the console. That's *ALL* that matters. Ayone who can't see that is a moron...
From article summary:
Microsoft's J Allard has said that the Xbox 360 will be released in differing versions over the next five years.
That's several hurdles right there. The story summary didn't say anyone but Microsoft was actually putting the hurdles in front of them.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
The 360 will almost certainly include the hard drive at launch. Remember, it is detachable, so what Allard is doing is making sure you can still play games when the hard drive isn't attached. He's also saying that sometime in the next five years, they may or may not sell a version of the 360 without the HD included.
The Mega CD , the 32X , jaguar CD ...
.... By which i mean more money via add ons ,are making a fatal mistake here "those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it". ... well maybe one small add on you can get away with (Though nintendo were quite lucky with the N64 RAM pack , not that it didn't have a few problems itself) , change the disc format and you are nearly guaranteed to have limited success if not damage done to your market.
,they are like comfortable track suit trousers that you can slip into of a night , pig out on a massive pizza and remain calm in the knowledge you wont need to undo a button as time goes on .
We all remember how successful extensions to your console are(Though the jaguar CD was a great add on , it was expensive and the console was struggling at the time anyway ) .
MS in an attempted to create an extendable console
People like consoles because they are simple to use
They certainly don't want to waste much money on upgrades for it and to start having to worry about requirements
"I don't think it's a one-size-fits-all [approach] over the next five-year horizon."
People like consoles in a One size fits all
The only things certain in war are Propaganda and Death. You can never be sure which is which though
Not only that, but one of the big benefits of console systems is that it usually simplifies things. On the computer, I have to check a game's memory, CPU, and video card requirements before I can buy it. For the PS2, I just have to look in the PS2 section.
Granted, it's not rocket science, but if they're going to radically change the hardware, maybe they should just release a new system.
And I can't say I envy the MS tech support people. "But it said XBOX 360", "Oh, sorry sir, that game is for XBOX 360 service pack 2" "Oh. Well can I have my money back?" "Oh, haha... yea, about that... um no." Click.
Maybe not
Why buy now when later I'll be able to get an HD-DVD compatible mode. Why bother when the hard drive is being removed from the equation and will cost extra as an addon, thereby limiting developers' use of its potential, thereby removing the outstanding feature of the original Xbox.
I got to see the Xbox 360 in closed doors demos at E3 this year, and I have to say despite the ringing hype endorsement of the PS3 over a prerendered demo (Killzone) which everyone on the floor as developers could name who created it - the Xbox 360 really did blow me away technically and the games were impressive looking and desirable - especially the new EA sports iterations (not to say anything of their gameplay and the company's lack of innovation).
But this latest news really puts me off bothering to pick one up soon. I recently had a ton of games stolen and went to eBay to load up on games I lost in the theft that were out of print. When it came time to find all the titles for the Xbox, there were very, very few I even wanted to bother replacing.
The current lineup, Call of Duty 2 excepted (which looked exceptional at E3 running in a limited capacity), does nothing to make me jones for Xbox 360. It still is a box dedicated towards dumbed down PC games played on a television. For now, I'll wait and see if an HD-DVD model ever comes out. I'll pick up a PS3 and use it as my Blu-Ray player.
** http://www.nkhumanrights.or.kr/ ** Human rights in North Korea. 1 million estimated dead from starvation.
Perhaps this isn't relevant to the list, but not all sequels are unoriginal. Some notable examples I can think of:
Super Mario Brothers 2
Grand Theft Auto 3
Duke Nukem 3D
Of course, for each of these, there are 1000 sequels with nothing at all new. Can anyone think of any other games for this list? I am sure there are plenty more.
I think MS and Sony might have a tougher time than they think this time out. I hear a lot of 12-13 year olds saying "Xbox 2 is gonna be l33t!" or "I so need a PS3 when it comes out." but I spend a lot of time at a nearby game store talking to the guys that work there and from the sound of things, it's gamers that have the cash to burn on new systems that are saying things like, "The only one I know I'll get is the Revolution." and "I'm sick of all the bullshit hype."
So yeah, hey Sony and MS: fire your marketing departments and put the money towards game development. Everyone already knows that your next gen shit is coming, shut up about it and give us games that make it a worthwhile purchase.
No sig for you!!
Fact: XBox 360 will not ship with HD-DVD drive.
Theory: After the PS3 is released (heck, while they are developing PS3 launch titles) game developers will scream to Microsoft they need the storage space HD-DVD offers to port the mammoth games they have just developed over to the XBox (and even then they may have a to cut and/or heavily compress some content to fit in the smaller space the HD-DVD format offers).
How can anyone really doubt this will not be true? How can anyone even hold a moment of doubt that at the very least a 2nd model with an HD-DVD drive will be released, and some game in the future (probably from EA) will require it? The only reason you are seeing Madden is that they will have another version next year anyway and this one will get the engine kinks worked out.
I think the only real surprise going forward would be Microsoft deciding to go with Blu-Ray instead of HD-DVD. But I just don't think they could swallow thier pride enough to do so, they are driven to be seen as the market leader.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
Everyone seems shocked by this, but it all makes perfect sense. First Microsoft breaks the hardware apart a bit, and makes you buy it piecemeal. That's to get the consumer comfortable with a new way of buying consoles. When the third generation XBox comes out, it will be a lot easier for Microsoft to start selling the system's OS (and upgrades/revisions...of course....) seperately as well. I can already imagine the lines we'd be fed.
"By selling the system hardware and software seperately, we are allowing the system a much longer lifespan, so you don't have to buy a new console every year! Instead, you can just buy the hardware and software upgrades and have a "brand new" system!"
This isn't that different from the DVD playback "add-on" for the original XBox. Microsoft's merely seeing how far they can take it one generation at a time.
...that ALL of the "first ten" are SEQUELS?
Not a single new, original idea?
Microsoft tried to avoid calling it "XBOX 2" at all cost. But it is just that. A 2nd grade sequel to XBOX, with more fireworks and special effects, most of which you've seen already, and nothing to really enjoy.
Anagram("United States of America") == "Dine out, taste a Mac, fries"
Just between MS and Sony, MS has taken the wrong approach... again. Just recall what happened at E3. The XBOX 360 had actual prototypes whereas Sony only had videos of "real footage." In the end, Sony came out on top -- at least in the eyes of the average gamer who tends to buy into the hype. (Remember how the initial reaction was: "Holy cow, Sony's specs blows the XBOX 360 out of the water!" or something to that effect?) Point is, MS jumped the gun to deliver their specs giving Sony's PR department tons of time to put together something to counter MS's announcments.Had they both made their announcements at E3, then Sony would not have had an advantage in terms of PR.
Now you've got this "several versions" scheme -- why would anyone buy an XBOX 360 at launch (esp. since the launch titles don't shout out "Buy me!") when the PS3, or a better version of the XBOX 360 would be coming out a few months later? By then the "top 10" games will have likely been priced down into the 19.99 range, too. Even if you only consider one new revision (say one that comes right after Sony's PS3 debut so MS can counter with a much-better and new 360), the fact that Sony is [hoping] to launch only a few months later would mean that most people are likely going to just wait and see during that time. I highly doubt the sales for the first XBOX 360 will be all that spectacular.
To be honest, if I knew that by waiting a few months I'd get a better version of , I'd just wait and make do with what I have. My current game consoles are more than capable of keeping me entertained in the meantime.
I doubt it. If you're going to buy a car, say, (which most people keep for around 5-7 years -- about the lifespan of the PS2), would you want to spend tons of money on the current model knowing that in a few months you'd get a much better car (say all the bells and whistles as opposed to the standard package) for about the same price?
Unless you need a new car immediately, you would probably wait.
Then you, sir, are a muppet.
Sorry, but there it is.
(Were you not around to see the PS2 demo videos? Surely no-one would take a console launch at face value after that!)
I read through the comments here and saw a lot of very confused people saying very confused things. After reading TFA here's what I gleaned:
- Microsoft is making sure game-developers treat the HD as optional.
- Seeing as the HD is optional, those who do not want the functionality will be offered the opportunity to purchase the console at a lower price.
- Microsoft may offer an HD-DVD drive in the Xbox 360 in later revisions (SPECULATION: to drive sales in the latecomer camp who are intrigued by the added bonus of playing HD-DVD content.)
Now here's what wasn't stated, but what I believe:
- Consoles are loss leaders for the major manufacturers. It is not desireable to sell hardware repeatedly at a loss. So what? Microsoft isn't going to encourage people to re-buy something that actually costs them money. Instead they will push for software titles to work on every Xbox 360 so that the maximum number of consumers can pay them licensing fees.
- Microsoft is going to (at minimum) STROGNLY encourage all software vendors not to code to the hard drive or the HD-DVD drive (when it arrives). While such coding may occur (FFXI will almost surely require a hard drive) it will not be the norm. They want the Xbox you bought on launch day without the HD to continue to get them licensing money through your continued purchase of software (see above).
- Confusingly, while many people replace the 's' in Microsoft with a '$', they accuse the same company whose success is so obvious of being incompetent at selling things. Whatever you want to argue about Microsoft, it is hard to argue that they are bad at making money. To that end, please re-read the above two points. They will not restrict their income artificially.
- Consumers LIKE new hardware revs. How many folks bought that cute miniature PS2? Enough to show that a re-rev of hardware (with different functionality) can be accepted by users. There's also the wild success of the Gameboy Advance (and SP) to this end. Did all your peripherals work with the SP? No. How many people still 'upgraded' from the Advance to the SP? Lots! It offered a compelling reason to upgrade, without breaking backwards compatibility for what matters (the games).
My conclusion: I'll buy an Xbox 360 on launch day because my lust for a new console is high, and because I am confident that the 360 I buy will work with games released until the Xbox 1080 (or whatever). If you do not believe that games will work then you are welcome to wait it out. A lot of people I know hesitated on huying an Xbox because it was a "second class" console to them. Then they ended up buying one because it had a few compelling games that were "must play" to them. If you don't want the 360 at launch then don't buy one, but don't be too shocked if there is comeplling (to you) content released that is Xbox exclusive and you end up wanting one in the end.
(Hint: Ninja Gaiden is not Halo, Forza is not Halo, do not reply to this with smarmy comments about Halo being the only popular exclusive game for the Xbox because it isn't, unless you want the standard "anti Microsoft" Slashdot karma over being factually correct.)
you can take the road that takes you to the stars...
As a game developer working on console titles this means madness on our side. I decided to go work exclusivly for console titles because once you leave all the compability issues of PC-based games behind, you never want to look back.
Consoles are supposed to be closed systems - with a "write code once and run on every console" philosophy. The changes or revisions to consoles in the past were mostly minor changes to the bios and the run-time-libs ensured that the same code written previously still worked. The hardware setup was always constant.
Now with the thought of having optional features like a hard-drive (this is not like having an optional vibrating gamepad or not), this means a huge hurdle for the developers and designers of games. Now you have to ensure that your title works with a number of different hardware setups, you also have to hope that future revisions to the xbox360 won't break your title and kick it off the market (or give you numerous nights of blood,sweat and tears).
Welcome to the PC-world of compability issues. I admit, to the end-consumer, the issues have soften over the years. For us developers, these compability issues are still subtle and can introduce some severe headaches.
regards,
under the assumption that WHAT THEY HYPED was what would be in the unit
LOL!
Oh, stop, you're killing me!
Hoooo! That's a good one.
Please see the list of "Features" that Widows Longhorn, now Windows Vista was going to have at launch.
Every time they pushed back the release date, they dropped a few features.
The first claims for what Longhorn would have constituted an operating system that would trample Linux and MAC OS X into dust. Those features have dropped off one by one over the years. It's now clear that Windows Vista will be little more than XP with a few cosmetic changes and tighter security.
This is standard Microsoft behavior though. Look at all their product releases. Look at the pre-release press. Announcing Vaporware and pumped up lists of features is a common practice for them, as a way to stifle or destroy the competition.
"Live Free or Die." Don't like it? Then keep out of the USA
... and those who don't get it yet:
It only needs one game -- next-gen Madden. That alone will trump all else, sell systems in droves, and will do so worldwide (because apparently you people have chosen to ignore the fact that Madden outsells even FIFA wordlwide). Madden will drive or break the launch. If it's there, it's a hit. If it's not, there could be trouble...
You don't believe me? Wander in to a Best Buy or Gamestop right now and hang around. Watch the kids and adults my age come in. Watch them come in, not even browse, go straight for the Madden box, buy, and leave. Watch kids wander in, pick up the Madden box, struggle with trying to decide to blow their hard-earned cash on it when they maybe can't even afford, AND STILL PICK IT UP EVERY SINGLE TIME.
There are no more-devoted game series fans out there. They all buy largely the same game EVERY SINGLE YEAR and play it to death, and a next-gen leap will only garner even more attention and sales than normal. And believe me, EA will roll out Der Hypen Machine for it in full force, so everyone will know when Madden launches.
People call in sick to work the day they know Madden launches. Peopel rearrange life schedules aroudn Madden launching so they hae plenty of time to go buy it and then play. Yes, it's that big.
Madden alone will make or break the 360 launch. because believe me, nobody cares about Perfect Dark...
It's hard to hype an original title before launch. Street Fighter 360 makes for better press than Famu Street Brawler 360. Once the system is near the shelves and they're ready to get in-depth we should see more of the original titles.
The ______ Agenda
Like everybody on the planet likes american football, let alone sports games...
You KNOW what will make or break the Xbox 360... Halo 3.
(and no, I don't like Halo, it's over-hyped by console fanboys who never played a FPS on a computer)
Oh, and in case you weren't aware, the US gaming market is much larger than that in either Japan or Europe.
CESA industry sales figures for Japanese publishers/manufacturers from last year:
Year - Software / Hardware : Total
2004 - $4.28 billion / $4.03 billion : $8.31 billion
And by region:
Year - Japan/Overseas : Total
2004 - $3.06 billion / $5.16 billion : $8.22 billion
The total North American video game market had $9.9 billion in sales over the same period.
Now, you can say that $9.9 billion in sales is more than three times $3.06 billion, but a couple things:
a) $3.06 billion is still no small chunk of change
b) That's in a country with half the population and about 1/20 the land mass (meaning distribution and marketing is much, much cheaper)
c) That's just one country, vs. Canada/US/Mexico for North American market numbers
d) $5 billion worth of Japanese software/hardware was sold overseas, meaning a large chunk of that North American market number is made up of Japanese games and systems
e) The total Japanese game industry is nearly the same size as the North American game industry in total dollar sales (in 2003, it was actually larger).
For example, the Saturn, a console made by a Japanese company, did pretty well in Japan yet tanked everywhere else. The end result of that was creating a situation where Sega ran out of money to compete.
And the same thing would have happened to Microsoft - with a successful console in the US and Europe but not Japan - if they did not have billions of dollars from their operating system business to rely on. They have lost billions on the Xbox. Part of the reason for that is approximately 33% of the sales they envisioned never materialized, because the system tanked so hard in Japan. They literally have only two of the three markets they thought they would.
I think you're underestimating the importance of Japan to the overall video game market. No system can be a financial success these days without being successful in Japan, in addition to the other markets. Japan is a huge cash cow - it is a much more profitable market than either the US or Europe, which are both nightmares of marketing and distribution for various reasons (different languages, long distances, political borders, cultures, etc.).