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Has Google Peaked?

nile_list writes "Robert X. Cringely's latest column explores just what the heck Google could be doing. 'Google likes to play the Black Box game. What are they DOING in all those buildings with all those PhDs?' He concludes that it's likely Google has peaked as a company: 'What if everyone is mainly wrong? What if search and PageRank and AdSense are Google's corporate apex. Most companies would be content with that, but Google isn't supposed to be like most companies. But what if they are?' His conclusion is that 'Microsoft's clearest threat still comes from Apple, though not the way most people expect.' It's an interesting read."

68 of 332 comments (clear)

  1. Has Cringely Peaked? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    I, Cringe writes "Robert X. Cringely's latest column explores just how inane and idiotic he can be.'I wilke to play the baseless speculation game. What can I THINK some company is doing based on my limited knowledge?' He concludes that it's likely he has peaked as a columnist: 'What if I am am mainly wrong? What if I, Cringely is my writing apex. Most writers would not be content with that, but I'm not like most writers. But so what if I'm not?' His conclusion is that 'My clearest threat still comes from people with brains, though not the way most people expect.' It's a boring read."

    1. Re:Has Cringely Peaked? by ergo98 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I wilke to play the baseless speculation game. What can I THINK some company is doing based on my limited knowledge?

      There are countless writers out there whose job is to do exactly that - to speculate and postulate how organizations, the markets, and the world are going to change. Perhaps you're the sort that simply waits for the world to change around you, always on the trailing edge, but a lot of people like to be in a position where they're not just along for the ride.

      What I'd really like to know is why you felt it so important to purportedly read the article, and then to comment on it? If speculation isn't your cup of tea, then move on. Instead I think you're driven by some sort of desperate Google-love, fanatical in your quest to piss on those who dare to question the almighty Google. That particular disease is pretty rampant around these parts.

  2. Blah blah by TupperTrenine · · Score: 5, Insightful

    What if, what if, what if. This article could have been posted when Earth came out, or GMail, or even Desktop Search. There can always be speculation, why now?

    1. Re:Blah blah by justin12345 · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It is odd that there seems to be so much Google=bad going around these days.

      I wonder if someone is coordinating it all. After all, the general sentiment seems to be that Google=good, so all this Google=bad stuff could clearly be someone's doing.

      I wonder who.

      --
      Cool art gallery, if you're into that sort of thing.
    2. Re:Blah blah by igny · · Score: 2, Interesting

      What if, what if, what if. This article could have been posted when Earth came out

      As in "what if the Earth were flat?"

      --
      In theory there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice there is. - Yogi Berra
    3. Re:Blah blah by kevinwal · · Score: 4, Insightful

      There's a lot at stake here for a lot of people; Google has collected a huge pile of investor money, and they should expect to be scrutinized, speculated about and puzzled over endlessly.

      I wonder how much longer they'll be able to get away with their "black box" style of product development before investors get nervous about it and run away? This article is a symptom of that nervousness, and represents a great example of the media doing it's job to raise questions.

    4. Re:Blah blah by GoClick · · Score: 4, Insightful

      You know what, Desktop Search isn't the best desktop search tool, there are ones that are considerably better, heck ones that even work with multiple users. I'd say that Desktop Search is NOT better than the search engine

      Google Earth isn't even THEIR PRODUCT, they bought it, that's not innovation therefor it can't drive their peak higher, that said what the heck is it even good for, I'd file it under GAME.

      Ok so what do we have that's spectacular, made by them, useful and recent, Gmail. But wait! That's not innovation either, heck I've been able to get to my IMAP mail for YEARS and do full text searches on it and even gasp STORE MORE THAN A GIG! Heck it even has a spiffy web interface, but who cares, I just keep a copy of my Thunderbird configuration on my web server and use Thunderbird wherever I go, however I will give FULL POINTS to Gmail because my mail setup is more complex and expensive, ie not free. Also it doesn't have clever targeted ads to remind me that I need to consume something.

      Ok so we've got a search engine that's pretty good, oh but wait, have you checked out another one in the last six months? I imagine you have not. The competition is getting pretty darn good! Worse still the SEO companies are getting pretty good at tricking Google.

      So has Google peaked? We won't know until they go bankrupt, which will eventually happen, or someone will buy them or the Internet will be phased out but corporations don't last forever, whatever the case may be the post mortem will be facinating. Until then, I'm happy to use their search engine every day and play with http://maps.google.ca/

      But do I think their the be all to end all like the rest of the slashdot fanboys, no.

      Do I think I could do better? Oh probably not but I do know some ways that Google could make it's services better.

      Search Engine:
      *Allow me to specify a set of web sites I NEVER want to results for.
      *Allow me to specify that I never want to see another damn .doc or .pdf file again.
      *Allow me to sort my results by AGE, how can you know how old it was, crawl the sites and when it changes the contents of more than x percent of the sentaces longer than x mark it changed.
      *How about a ranking system? Give me the option to mod down a site and once a domain name gets enough people saying it's crap (*cough*about.com*cough*) drop it from the index

      Gmail
      *DON'T HIDE THE GOD DAMN DELETE FEATURE UNDER A MENU! I don't care if you want me to keep my shit around forever I don't want to keep some moronic E-Mail about kittens, but that doesn't mean my friend is spamming me!
      *How about we have the notify app remember my password? That one would be super cause I already have to log onto my system and if little sally doesn't want her brother checking her email she can turn this off, or atleast give me the option to turn it on.

      Talk
      *Make it connect to the MSN server too like GAIM does, Ok so I can use GAIM to connect to Talk but still, I'm not a GAIM fan.

      Earth
      *How about a high speed grayscale only mode and integration with Talk so that I can put a pushpin into my map and send it to my friends?
      *Why does maps.google.ca have roads for places that Earth doesn't?

      Toolbar
      *How about it could come with an integrated tool that stops other toolbars from being installed? That'd be fantastic then I could just put it on my family's computers and not worry about them installing more tool bars, or any software for that matter!
      *Integrate a clock, people like clocks! Oh and make sure it stays up to date :P

      Desktop Search
      *Make it work on more than one user, this shouldn't even be that damn hard what's wrong with you people?

      I've lost my rant will....

      I'm going to go drink Tang now..

    5. Re:Blah blah by drsquare · · Score: 2, Insightful

      What???? The general sentiment is NOT that Google=good. You've been listening to too much propaganda and paid Slashvertisements. There is a growing feeling that Google is over-hyped and nowhere near as good as they think they are. I know it's nice to think that anyone who doesn't like Google is a Microsoft astroturfer, but... ...it's EXTREMELY ARROGANT to think that no-one in the world could dislike Google. Not everyone has happily accepted the brainwashing.

    6. Re:Blah blah by Bogtha · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It is odd that there seems to be so much Google=bad going around these days.

      It started up when they announced they were going public. Yeah, there were a few anti-Google articles here and there, but I noticed a dramatic increase around that time. Suddenly "don't be evil" stopped being a good principle and started being spun as deception. Articles that would have been written as "Google are unlikely to do this because of their Don't Be Evil rule" are now written as "If Google do this, then so much for Don't Be Evil!". It's a subtle change in language, but a big change in tone.

      Dunno why it is, mistrust of public companies, jealousy, the sudden disappearance of underdog status... it's probably a combination of things. All I know is that once, the fact that Google did good things and not bad things was seen in a positive light, and now that isn't good enough - people want a guarantee that Google will never do anything bad, which is an impossible expectation that nobody could satisfy.

      --
      Bogtha Bogtha Bogtha
    7. Re:Blah blah by tgrimley · · Score: 5, Funny

      Yeah, but goolge is much easier to type than microsoft.

      Apparently not! :)

    8. Re:Blah blah by Bogtha · · Score: 5, Informative

      Allow me to specify a set of web sites I NEVER want to results for.
      Allow me to specify that I never want to see another damn .doc or .pdf file again.

      You could add those to Google yourself with relatively simple Javascript (Greasemonkey, userjs, etc). Just append "-site:example.com -filetype:pdf" to each query.

      DON'T HIDE THE GOD DAMN DELETE FEATURE UNDER A MENU!

      Here's a Greasemonkey script to add a delete button.

      How about it could come with an integrated tool that stops other toolbars from being installed? That'd be fantastic then I could just put it on my family's computers and not worry about them installing more tool bars, or any software for that matter!

      I thought there was an option to disable BHOs in the latest Internet Explorer running on XP? In any case, Internet Explorer 7 will have a "safe mode". I don't think this is Google's problem to solve.

      Integrate a clock, people like clocks!

      Everyone has a clock.

      --
      Bogtha Bogtha Bogtha
    9. Re:Blah blah by XMyth · · Score: 2, Insightful

      it's EXTREMELY STUPID to think that anyone thinks or was trying to imply "no-one in the world could dislike Google".

      I guess we have different understandings of the term "general sentiment".

    10. Re:Blah blah by _Sprocket_ · · Score: 2, Interesting
      "Follow the money" is not proof. Although, it does give you a place to start looking. But then you've got to actually look and uncover evidence.

      I agree that Microsoft is a prime suspect. They certainly have the history and savvy to pull something like that off. But it doesn't make them guilty. Again - where's the proof?

      Paul Graham wrote an interesting piece that's appeared on Slashdot before. In it, he describes the rather simple method to uncovering the source of planted trend stories - "press hits":

      The secret to finding other press hits from a given pitch is to realize that they all started from the same document back at the PR firm. Search for a few key phrases and the names of the clients and the experts, and you'll turn up other variants of this story.

      That might be a bit simplistic for our purposes here. The "anti-Google" sentiment isn't a single concept or story. But it could still be possible to go over the various stories, look for the quoted experts, and then track back to see if there's any links. Whether they lead to Microsoft or not.
    11. Re:Blah blah by wackywendell · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I doubt there's any coordination - it's just that people like to root for the underdog, especially Americans and downtrodden office workers, the slashdot bread and butter. Now that Google has made it almost level with Microsoft, they have lost all the good feeling that came with being an underdog.

  3. Google hasn't peaked. by KingSkippus · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I dunno, the article sounds rather like pretty wild speculation to me. Not that speculation is wrong—the author admits it's speculation—but if any of this stuff comes to pass, I would chalk the author's correctness up more to luck than to keen insight.

    Google has a lot of project in the works, including Gmail, Gtalk, Google Desktop, etc. These projects are anything but mainstream and have a LOT of room for growth. Hell, there's still even room for growth in their primary market, the search engine. Though they are huge, they are far from owning that market.

    And Apple knocking off Microsoft? Maybe, but if they haven't done it yet, I don't have much reason to believe they'll do it anytime soon. I will admit that there was an interesting speculation in the article:

    What if Apple introduces OS 10.5, its next super-duper operating system release, and at the same time starts loading FOR FREE the current operating system version—OS 10.4—on every new iPod [as a bootable drive] in a version that runs on generic Intel boxes? What if they also make 10.4 a free download through the iTunes Music Store?

    Wild speculation, but man, it would be fun to watch the resulting scramble.

    As for me, I'm convinced that if anyone will ever knock off Microsoft, it will be an OS that gets game developers behind them. I've said for years that as weird as it sounds, gamers drive the market. Not many people use computers at home or school for productive uses, most people use them for playing games. The most popular "applications" on my own computer are probably Firefox and City of Heros. Firefox already runs on a zillion platforms. If City of Heroes ran on Linux, I would probably go ahead to switch to a Linux-only system, if for no other reason than it's free and I don't have to buy a new version every few years.

    Once everyone is using an alternative OS (not necessarily Linux, but something other than Windows) at home for games, then they will all want to use it at work and school for productivity and educational applications, and that familiarity will drive more and more companies and schools to switch desktops.

    But that's just my wild speculation...

    1. Re:Google hasn't peaked. by sgt_doom · · Score: 3, Insightful
      As for me, I'm convinced that if anyone will ever knock off Microsoft, it will be an OS that gets game developers behind them. I've said for years that as weird as it sounds, gamers drive the market.

      Yes and no. I agree with your opinion of a game-oriented OS having enormous potential - but PORN, not gaming, according too all the internet statistics I've ever seen - drives the market - the truth is not always pretty. Gaming simply has overcome all other forms of popular - and mainstream - entertainment - deriving more revenue than the movie industry, etc.

    2. Re:Google hasn't peaked. by nwbvt · · Score: 4, Informative
      "Google has a lot of project in the works, including Gmail, Gtalk, Google Desktop, etc. These projects are anything but mainstream and have a LOT of room for growth. Hell, there's still even room for growth in their primary market, the search engine. Though they are huge, they are far from owning that market."

      Yes, but out of all their many products, they have only one major source of income, Adsense. Their entire business model is based on advertising. Remember how the dot-com boom in the late 90's turned out? And how many of their products work well with Adsense? While I occasionally find the ads coming off of search results useful, I've never seen anything in gmail that was remotely helpful.

      "As for me, I'm convinced that if anyone will ever knock off Microsoft, it will be an OS that gets game developers behind them. I've said for years that as weird as it sounds, gamers drive the market. Not many people use computers at home or school for productive uses, most people use them for playing games."

      I know these are somewhat old numbers, but according to the census bureau in '01:

      • 55.9% of computer uers play games (though that probably counts games like solitare and freecell as well as City of Heroes and Warcraft).
      • 58.1% use it for word processing.
      • 83.5% use it for email.
      • 89.5% use it for the Internet.

      So there are more popular uses.

      "If City of Heroes ran on Linux, I would probably go ahead to switch to a Linux-only system, if for no other reason than it's free and I don't have to buy a new version every few years."

      Try Cedega, I've heard it works fine with that particular game. Not so sure about plain old wine though.

      --
      Mathematics is made of 50 percent formulas, 50 percent proofs, and 50 percent imagination.
    3. Re:Google hasn't peaked. by future+assassin · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Well at least for me if Adobe were to come out with PS for Linux I would not need Windows anymore. This is the only ap that is still keeping me from switching and a few software install annoyances. Yes there is GIMP and in due time it might be a contender against PS but Im so used to PS and its ease of use I cant seem to break the habit. Adobes move to Linux could also bring in whordes of digital camera user like me.

      http://www.evolver.ca/

      --
      by TheSpoom (715771) Uncaring Linux user here. I have nothing to add to this but please continue. *munches popcorn*
    4. Re:Google hasn't peaked. by baronvonwalz · · Score: 2, Funny

      But porn is cross platform :-P

    5. Re:Google hasn't peaked. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Games? Sweet christ how old are you? Think businesses. That is where you'll need to knock off MS first.

      Find a company that offers support, has entrenched mindshare amoung executives that make decsions, and a product that interfaces with existing software and brings something new and absolutely amazing to the table. THEN maybe you'll give MS something to worry about.

      Games, you make me laugh.

    6. Re:Google hasn't peaked. by wasted+time · · Score: 2, Interesting

      While I occasionally find the ads coming off of search results useful, I've never seen anything in gmail that was remotely helpful.

      Half joking but half serious - I'm not sure what kind of ads you're seeing in gmail, but the quality of those ads could simply be due to the content of said emails. Not all Adsense words are helpful and not everyone who's helpful buys Adsense words. I have noticed that spammers are sending email which contains words they likely have purchased Adsense words for. They're hoping the Google ad may get you to click even if they can't get you to click through the email.

      While I don't disagree with your observations, I'd like to point out that advertising is the oldest profession on earth (in a chicken/egg sort of way with the other oldest profession) and that targeted advertising becomes even more important as online services become more competitive and are utilized by more of the general public. Advertising is a lucrative business no mater how much we hate it.

      Google appears to be the current winner in online advertising and will likely continue to take a larger percentage of ad revenue, especially as more and more people filter out the annoying junk ads. In the least, I think they will force a number of their competitors to change the way they present ads. In the mean time Google's revenue should continue to climb.

      Also, as they continue to develop the multitude of applications they have, I sense they will find ways to link almost every one of them in an easy to use interface and most likely start to offer paid variants of some of those services. They already do this with Search and Google Earth and could easily do the same with Talk. I don't think I've seen an single evening news broadcast in the 6 months that hasn't used Keyhole, so there's definitely a revenue stream coming in from that app.

      Advertising started it all for Google, but they have lots of opportunity left. And the bubble burst had nothing to do with having advertising as a business model. It had everything to do with just plain bad business models.

      --
      The Stone Age did not end because humans ran out of stones. - William McDonough
  4. Yes by Timesprout · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Next question the does not involve endless futile /. speculation please.

    --
    Do not try to read the dupe, thats impossible. Instead, only try to realize the truth
    What truth?
    There is no dupe
  5. How do you know Google is telling the truth? by Saint+Stephen · · Score: 4, Funny

    Sure, you type in some stuff, and get something that LOOKS highly relevant. How do you know?

  6. This might not be so bad by Wingfield · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Google may be following the typical path, which is generally attributed to the growth of a company. The difference that I see between a company like google and Microsoft is that google generally does an awesome job on virtually everything they release(which, by the way, is all free.) G-mail is hands down the best e-mail service I've ever used, and although I haven't used the new IMing service, I hear that it's very streamlined. I like google. They give me what i need to surf the web efficiently. As long as they don't become bent on world domination like Microsoft, I don't see why them getting bigger would be a problem. In my eyes, it means more resources with which to provide us with better services.

  7. yawn by Chaos_Thoery · · Score: 4, Funny

    These articles are like monthly soap operas. What will happen next? Google gets pregnant? lame.

  8. How to bring down Google - Do-Not-Search law. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    I used to love Google, but not anymore. Don't ask why, but reading Google-related stories on slashdot every few hours is one of the reasons.

    This has led me to come up with the seeds of a compelling plan that will bring down Google. It involves making search engines respect privacy and copyright, by law.

    Search engines like Google enable people to compile information from different sources about the same thing. So while one website might not provide enough information about some John Smith, using search engines it is very easy to find out a lot more about that person. And without the consent of that person. This compiled information could be harmful to that person in various ways. CNET was recently shunned by Google because one of it's reporters "googled" Google's CEO and found out some stuff about him. Google didn't like that. I don't like it either when someone else is able to "google me". I'm sure you don't like that as well, after all, it could be a potential employer, spouse, scammer, stalker, etc. who could be "googling" you.

    I am sure most people and entities (companies, government, etc.) would not like to be "googled" because of various reasons. It could be about national security, competitive reasons, personal well-being, etc. They should be able to "opt-out" of internet searches.

    This is what a proposed "Do-Not-Search" law would look like: There would be a national do-not-search registry which the search engines would have to check against before returning the results of each search. All items in the do-not-search registry would have to be excluded from the search results. If the search engine doesn't do that, then there would be penalties associated with it.

    A person or entity, upon presenting some valid credentials, could add some terms to the do-not-search registry. For example, John Smith can exclude himself from being searched. Only problem is, how to ensure other John Smiths are not excluded as well ? This is a 'bug', and will be sorted out soon.

    This is a work in progress, and only began a couple of days ago when all the hoopla surrounding Google Talk reached its height. Your comments/opinions on this would be helpful as well.

    Google needs to be tamed because it is a threat to many of us. I am sure some lawmaker in the US, Canada or Europe would grab on to this and then it will begin. The stock price would tank and the searches would become increasingly complex, time-consuming and irrelevant as the do-not-search registry grows. That would be the end of Google as we know it, and we would have saved slashdot and ourselves.

  9. Comment removed by account_deleted · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Comment removed based on user account deletion

  10. Re:What are they DOING? by Dogtanian · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Working. What are YOU doing, Cringely?

    He's working. As a journalist and columnist, it's his JOB to write stuff.

    --
    "Slashdot - News and Chat Sites Deviant". (Click "homepage" link above for details).
  11. Re:OSS Google Killer? by trash+eighty · · Score: 5, Funny

    yeah thats a good idea, a free Google killer.

    having to pay to search on Google is a real bummer... oh wait!

  12. It is obvious isn't it? by tknn · · Score: 3, Interesting

    While I do think their search algorithm is slowly getting hacked and more link farms are popping up, it seems obvious the plays they are making:

    personal location based services.

    Repeat after me...

    personal location based services.

    Google Maps, the other purchases, google weather and tracking. All this stuff feeds into some sort of local play for the cell-phone/gps space. Maybe car nav systems as well. Ubiquity.

    There is still a lot of things that can be done with information for management if they want to. They could create a directory system similar to Yahoo. They could let you further customize the news and other stuff you receive.

    1. Re:It is obvious isn't it? by msuarezalvarez · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Maybe -not- having Google Maps at all would be worse?

  13. I hope Google has peaked by DeadSea · · Score: 4, Insightful
    1. As a webmaster, I don't want to rely on Google for 80% of my traffic. I'd like to be able to count on each of three search engines for about 30% of my traffic. Google has been known to throw sites out of their index accidentally.
    2. As a user, I feel that Google knows too much about me already. They have a ton of information about what I search for. With gmail, they have a list of who I know, with maps they have a list of places I go, with froogle they have a list of what I buy.
    I would prefer that some of the other players in search got their act together and improved to the point to be able to challenge Google. I'd prefer if some of the other maps, email, and shopping sites got their act together and became as good as Google.

    Its hard to hate a company that usually has the far superior product, but Google is getting huge and a little scary.

    1. Re:I hope Google has peaked by ShibbyShagDeluxe · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Imagine if Google was secretly a government covert operation under a non-threatening company stance, looking to find out everything about anything, in a freaky big-brother-esque reality? That would be quite an interesting holywood shab-shot movie...

      --
      Mr Spanky, the erotic goldfish
  14. Re:Of course Google has peaked by WilliamSChips · · Score: 5, Insightful
    That's why they're busily copying every "portal" feature from their superior competitor.
    Maybe that part of Yahoo is better than what Google has, but in most places, Google's offering is better. Email, for example. How much space did Yahoo offer before Gmail? 10 megabytes. How much space does Gmail offer as opposed to Yahoo? Google has over twice as much. And feature-wise? Gmail wins hands-down.
    --
    Please, for the good of Humanity, vote Obama.
  15. NEWS AT 11 by __aavhli5779 · · Score: 2, Funny

    Self-important yutz with a worthless blog noone reads replies to self-important yutz with a worthless blog noone reads.

    TAKE IT TO YOUR BLOGS, BLOGGERS.

  16. Just Cringley being an Apple fanboy again by jmorris42 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    He started out ok, made a few interesting at least observations about Google behaviour of late. But then with a lot of handwaving and not a lot of reasoning dismisses them as has beens so he can go on yet another tired rant about how Apple is going to rise from insignificance and crush it's enemies.

    Didn't we all get tired of hearing this same song from the Amigans, how any day now _insert company who owns em today_ is going to come back with something wonderful and all the infidels on PCs and Macs will be wailing and gnashing their teeth?

    Apple is a bit player now, will remain a bit player after Intel. In fact, after they perform this one last act for Mr. Gates (get TCPA into mainstream use, something Gates was rightly pilloried for trying under the Palladium name) I'd expect the coup de grace to finally be administered.

    But leave off the last part of that collumn and it does raise an interesting question. Where does Google want to be in ten years?

    --
    Democrat delenda est
  17. He's right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    You know, this guy who makes a living by getting his name in the press is completely, objectively correct. There's nothing Google can do with the FOUR BILLION dollars they raised in a (small) stock sale.

    There's nothing left to invent in the world. There's nothing more we want from computing. There are no more improvements possible. Rampant spam, spyware, crummy messaging protocols like email and primitive IM are all that we want. We don't need access to more information in other dimensions of our lives, and all the Ph.D.s in the world are not going to find ways to improve our lives through computing.

    Google, if you're listening, please understand: there are no more efficiencies possible in human society, at least through information management. The annual improvement of efficiencies of 4-10% per year noted by macro economists is all smoke screen. Stop making maps, phone-related lookup services, and archives of all the world's libraries. We simply don't want this information, or need it. Please stop trying. K THXS.

    Sincerely, B. Gates

  18. How Apple can drive MS into a berserker frenzy: by Savantissimo · · Score: 2, Funny
    Cringely:
    Every one of those iPods is a bootable drive. What if Apple introduces OS 10.5, its next super-duper operating system release, and at the same time starts loading FOR FREE the current operating system version -- OS 10.4 -- on every new iPod in a version that runs on generic Intel boxes? What if they also make 10.4 a free download through the iTunes Music Store?

    It wouldn't kill Microsoft, but it would hurt the company, both emotionally and materially. And it wouldn't hurt Apple at all. Apple hardware sales would be driven by OS 10.5 and all giving away 10.4 would do is help sell more iPods and attract more customers to Apple's store.


    I have only one comment on this: BWA-HA-HA-HA!
    But it'll never happen.
    --
    "Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery?" - Patrick Henry
    1. Re:How Apple can drive MS into a berserker frenzy: by filipe.almeida · · Score: 3, Informative

      ipod drives are not reliable enough to run pc operating systems or to run for long hours without stopping. They have MTBF values well bellow common desktop drives.

  19. Google maybe, Apple no by Continental · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Maybe Google has peaked, or maybe they're just in a bit of a valley right now (see the underwhelming debuts of GTalk and GDS 2). I can give that to Cringely. But Apple giving away copies of OS X?? Even old copies, especially old copies? That's insane. If they really wanted more market share Apple could just preload porn on all new video iPods.

  20. OK, I'll say it... by resprung · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Everybody is rooting for brilliant convergence, but Google is a such a mess nowadays, it's just not going to happen.

    Google Video is a ratty service, even for a beta, I've regretted the time I spent uploading content. No way it's going to shine.

    Google Talk is a callback to 1995.

    Picasa and Hello are glued messily together, and posting from Hello is flaky.

    There's a bushel of great services too, but the whole Google concept is just all over the place.

    --
    Now is the winter of our disco tent
  21. Wow by Bogtha · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This has to be a new low. "I don't know what Google are doing, so I'll write about how I don't know what Google are doing!"

    Every one of those iPods is a bootable drive. What if Apple introduces OS 10.5, its next super-duper operating system release, and at the same time starts loading FOR FREE the current operating system version -- OS 10.4 -- on every new iPod in a version that runs on generic Intel boxes? What if they also make 10.4 a free download through the iTunes Music Store?

    I thought this "OS X on generic Intel boxes" thing had been done to death? How are Apple going to solve the driver problem? Giving away a free older version that doesn't work with half your hardware is going to make a negative impression, not a positive one.

    --
    Bogtha Bogtha Bogtha
  22. Re:Of course Google has peaked by Dogtanian · · Score: 4, Funny

    That's why they're busily copying every "portal" feature from their superior competitor

    They're pretty slow off the mark then. Yahoo had the "X-Cam Pop-Under ad" feature years back, and Google *still* haven't implemented it.

    --
    "Slashdot - News and Chat Sites Deviant". (Click "homepage" link above for details).
  23. Feeling Lucky by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 3, Insightful

    What if Google's plan is to actually deliver on the 1990s promise of a "Web Desktop", one app at a time? They're doing it 1990s "spiral development" style, rolling out one complete feature at a time. Amassing the best (or #2 behind Apple) brand in the world, with a "Google feel" of simplicity, immediacy, and nonintrusion. When they lay a layer of association across their related apps, so their Earth model is related not only to your searches (including history of clicks) but also to your contacts and purchases, presenting your online life to you seamlessly wherever you "hit the Web", they'll have endrun Microsoft and everyone else in the "computer business". All those other companies will be merely component suppliers, and the customer relationship will belong to Google. Which is where every seller wants to be - so all those other vendors will have to go through Google to get to the customer. Without all the "evil" baggage of Microsoft, or "complicated" baggage of AOL. Of course, Google won't be able to totally monopolize that relationship, nor hold it forever without challenge. But they will be in the catbird seat for long enough to have all the advantages of perpetuating their power that incumbent market dominators get. It remains to be seen just how benevolent, and benign, is their ruling of that roost - if they achieve it.

    --

    --
    make install -not war

    1. Re:Feeling Lucky by jipjakjam · · Score: 2, Funny

      Hallo, How are yourself doing ? You want a Web Desktop ? Meet the World Wide Web. Don't need to go one app at a time as there are gazillions of apps out there, ALREADY. Web based apps. They are called websites. Good, now you know about it. Please don't torture yourself with all this thinking. Google hasn't been doing anything new. They make money from ads. If you have used gmail, you will HOPE and PRAY that customer relationship does not belong to google. Have you never seen gmail error pages like "Cross your fingers and try again". That scared the shit out of me and I moved back to my old retarded email, called hotmail. Microsoft cannot afford to fuck up on that, while Google doesn't give a rat's ass about me.

  24. If, so this would be a huge boon for slashdot... by ScentCone · · Score: 4, Interesting

    ... because even the most virulent (ahem) MS-loathers have to be aware that they're sounding a little stale these days. The sheer drama of a once-romantic company like Google making the transition from dewey-cheeked lass to, well, a grown-up company will fuel slashdot rants for years. This is mostly due to the dislike, on the part of so many users here, of the realities of what it takes to be a large, publicly-held, growing tech company (i.e., make money for the people who invested so much cash, solidify the brand, beat or absorb competition, and show that you have what it will take to continue to grow indefinately). The real drama comes from Google's original "no evil" clause, coupled with the completely rudderless definition of "evil" as used by slashdotters. Thus will Google simply become a canvas on which to paint every argument about capitalism, openess, income disparity, regulation, monopolism, liberalism, conservatism, and operating system religions.

    It's not so much the fun we'll have watching certain G-accolytes feeling betrayed. It's the fun we'll have watching so many people realize they've simply been projecting their own notions onto a company that's now so large and visible that the disconnect will be obvious, even to those addled enough to have thought that there could be something that big, "free," and still beyond the reach of normal economic realities. We're not seeing Google "peak," we're seeing the Google fanboy fantasy peak. I use their tools dozens of times every day. As a surfer, as a consultant, as a merchant, as a consumer, as a driver, as a communicator... but for some reason, as much as I'm impressed with pretty much everything they do, I've not ever quite heard the siren song that so many others seem to hear. I'm always impressed, but not so much seduced. Perhaps it's because I don't have the abiding hatred for Google's competition found in so many others - that makes the whole issue less emotional, I think.

    --
    Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
  25. robots.txt by theguywhosaid · · Score: 2, Insightful

    hey fucktard, robots.txt

  26. Google Reminds me of Digital by eno2001 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Much like Digital they only employ people who "get it" when it comes to technology and real innovation. Theire chosen back end OS? Linux. Wise choice especially on the technical end. Unfortunately, there are some people who think that technology should exist for business and that's when things go sour. That's what happened to Digital. They were run by some of the most brilliant engineers, but they hhad to compete against other companies run by suits who only care about making money and not advancing technology or society. Most of the time techs can't beat suits at business. Let's hope this isn't the case with Google. I really like seeing companies that are more focussed on moving technology forward and less focussed on insane profit. (Yeah, I know they make a lot of money from ads, but they apparently aren't totally focussed on it because they've been coming out with the most innovative stuff due to their sole focus on the advancement and innovation with technology.)

    --
    -"...bad old ideas look confusingly fresh when they are packaged as technology" - Jaron Lanier (Digital Maoism on Edge.o
  27. Still relevant, fading slightly by crucini · · Score: 2, Interesting
    From their tenthings page:
    2. It's best to do one thing really, really well.
    Google does search. With one of the world's largest research groups focused exclusively on solving search problems, we know what we do well, and how we could do it better.

    Followed by some defensive fudging to link the "hardcore search" mantra with the current portalization of google. Interesting note at the page bottom:
    * Full-disclosure update: When we first wrote these "10 things" four years ago, we included the phrase "Google does not do horoscopes, financial advice or chat." ...

    What the recent NCSA study showed, contrary to the slashdot interpretation, is that Google remains very vulnerable to keyword spammers, while Yahoo is quite good at muting them.

    Google is no longer a clear-cut leader in search, and they are branching out to the full spectrum of portal services. And it's not clear that they will succeed in these new areas.

    I'm very grateful to Google for increasing the demand for engineers, pressuring other companies to ramp up engineering and prioritize innovation, and teaching the world that giant flashing gifs and paid placement listings were not the way to go. And Google Maps shows that Google is still capable of giant leaps forward.

    I'm puzzled, however, by the level of Google fanboyism on slashdot. I guess a lot of you were "imprinted" by Google back in the Dark Ages of search when nothing else worked right, and cannot see them objectively.
  28. They can still APPLY PR & AS to new areas by Jeff+Molby · · Score: 2, Interesting

    What if search and PageRank and AdSense are Google's corporate apex.

    That's probably true, but it's completely irrelevant. There are still countless areas in which they can APPLY PageRank and AdSense.

  29. I agree on some point on Apple by UnknowingFool · · Score: 2, Insightful
    I agree with Cringley that Microsoft shouldn't overlook Apple and focus too much on Google. The recent migration to Intel should have sent warning signs. If Mac OSX on Intel performs better and more reliablly then Windows, PC makers like Dell and HP can't use the megahertz argument. That's a big "if" though.

    The other reason the Intel move hurts Microsoft is less subtle. By switching to Intel, Apple hurts development on the new Xbox360. Right now development is done on Apple G5s probably because of the similiarity in chip architectures. By moving away from PowerPC, Apple makes it harder for game companies to develop. Sure developers could probably use something else like Intel emulating PowerPC or an IBM PowerPC machine. But the later is very expensive ($5K a piece) and the former doesn't provide for real-world simulations.

    --
    Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
  30. Apple can't give away OS X by Dlugar · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The big draw of OS X, and one of the big reasons why it rocks and Windows sucks, is compatibility. Getting device drivers to work, and to work well with each other, is the biggest nightmare to stability and ease of use ever invented.

    I can't imagine that these people who continually suggest that Apple get OS X working on commodity Intel boxes have ever really used Macs. Apple doesn't sell a computer--they sell a user experience. Seriously. From the moment you plug the computer in, you're in a little Apple dream world, full of eye candy and "everything works" and stuff that's easy to use. Do you think replicating that experience on commodity Intel boxes is easy, much less even possible? Do you think that Apple would want to risk their image on such an outrageous gamble? Not a chance.

    Dlugar

    --
    Computer Go: Writing Software to Play the Ancient Game of Go
  31. Re:OSS Google Killer? by joeykiller · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I've seen a couple of projects on the net trying to achieve this. The obstacle always seems to be speed: Distributed P2P searching won't give near instantaneous answers like Google and Yahoo does.

    But the idea is intriguing. What I've been thinking is that if something like that should be made, it should be done as a part of Firefox. Every page you visit could be indexed by Firefox. Not any other pages. There's not a crawler involved, because you're the crawler: Your surfing habits decides which pages are indexed and which are not.

    Now think about BitTorrent: The more people sharing the same file, the faster you can download it. Imagine if the same applied to your distributed search engine: Often and much visited pages would have a high distribution, and would therefore "be more searchable" and therefore automatically be ranked highly.

    With this you'd get a search engine where pages could be ranked according to popularity and freshness in a way that ordinary search engines cannot do. It would be a kind of social bookmarking service for search.

  32. Google Labs == (Bell Labs - 40 years) by AlaindeBotton · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I think it's clear that Google Labs will be what Bell Labs was 30 years ago. Trust me, we haven't even seen a fraction of what they are currently working on. You can doubt what they are doing all you like, it doesn't change the fact that they are packed with talent. Perhaps they will not be as hugely profitable as they have been with AdSense, Bell Labs never made great profits, but I have no doubt they will be the most innovative place on the planet for the next 10 years.

  33. Forget Netcraft by roman_mir · · Score: 3, Funny

    Robert X. Cringely confirms: Google is dying!

  34. It wont be games by gad_zuki! · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The saying "games drive the market" really is about the rapid upgrade cycle of the home user. Its a great way for intel, nvidia, and the rest to say "See, thats why you need this new chip. You cant play this game!" Its the old keeping up with the jonses strategy and it works.

    Back in the day, Apple thought it could get OS dominance by giving away machines to schools and selling pricey GUI driven machines to business. Well, it ends up that its very convienent for people to buy a computer that runs some of the stuff they run at work to do work at home. MS had a good start in the business world and it just translated into the home market.

    Not to mention the x86 architecture was much more hacker friendly than Apple's offerings at the time. That's still true today.

    Lastly, the game companies are developing in DirectX anyway so they seem to have drunk the kool-aid with the rest of the industry.

  35. Is Cringely in cahoots with Roland? by MarkusQ · · Score: 2, Funny

    Or better, are they the same person? Has anyone seen them in the same place at the same time (and survived with enough sanity intact to report the fact? I didn't think so). But both of them seem to subsist on pompously worded pointless "conventional wisdom challeging."

    Is "T" actually a vowel? What if paper money was edible? Is it already? Dispite what most city dwellers think, most of the worlds buildings are still only one story tall! And made-up words--are they really neologisms, or is everyone just crumulous?

    Is this tabloid journalism for the neo-technoploobi, or something...more sinister.

    Inquiring minds want it to STOP.

    --MarkusQ

  36. Cringely is a Slashdot Karma Whore by MOBE2001 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Why? Because he hates Microsoft and loves Apple. Both MS and Google have a shitload of money to invest and both have tons of stuff they can do with their money. But if Google really wants to take on both MS and Apple, and even Intel, I think I got an excellent suggestion for them.

    In my opinion, Intel and the rest of the big processor vendors can only come up with so many incremental improvements before they bore the market to death. Microsoft is mired in buggy code that they'll never be able to fix. Apple is playing second fiddle in the market. So what comes next?

    I suggest that Google starts working on the biggest problem facing the computer industry today: unreliable software. It's costing us billions of dollars and even human lives. Consider that the basic architecture of the processor has not changed in more than 150 years, when a guy named Babbage and his girlfriend Ada built their mechanical computer around the "table of instructions". All processor architectures have been based on and optimized for the algorithm ever since.

    A truly innovative architecture would abandon the algorithmic model altogether and embrace a non-algorithmic, signal-based synchronous software model. It would not only revolutionize the computer industry, it would solve its nastiest problem: software unreliability.

    But can we really expect the big guys (Intel, AMD, IBM, etc...) to be truly innovative at this stage of the game? Their approach is evolutionary, not revolutionary; and they are doing just fine as it is. They have no great incentive to change. Hopefully, a bright upstart will get the message and make a killing while the behemoths are busy fighting each other for market share. They won't know what hit them until it's too late. The message is simple: There is a solution to the software reliability crisis. The disadvantage is that it will require a radical change in both processor architecture and software construction methodology. The advantage is too good to ignore: 100% software reliability! Guaranteed!

    This is the stuff that revolutions and great companies are made of. After a century and a half, I think it's time for a change. He who has an ear (and the venture capital) let him hear!

  37. Re:what the hell is all this attacking Google .... by otis+wildflower · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Probably because their HR department has rubbed a bunch of techies the wrong way. Having to wait 6+ months for a response (if you're lucky) on a _solicited_ resume, then being prompted to take phone tests _after_ you've landed a job that has better pay. That, coupled with the company's opacity, could understandably damage their reputation amongst the traditionally hypercommunicative hacker community and OSS folks. Good guys aren't supposed to be that secretive.

    Also, word on the street is that the 20% of 'personal research' time is now essentially added onto a standard work week, thus driving the hours on the job up, which smacks of a growing sweatshopization (but which may also be a symptom of bad HR).

    OTOH, of the folks I know there, all seem to be pretty happy, so it could all just be sour grapes and bullshit. Still, hubris is something to actively, constantly thwart.

  38. Moron by szfsoft · · Score: 2, Informative

    The point is - It's not only you putting your own name on websites YOU control, it's everyone else who mentions your name on their website - Employers, friends, enemies, yellow or white pages, clubs and organizations you may belong to, forums, chatrooms, IRC logs, blogs, blog comments, guestbooks... The point is that restricting others' access to information about you is only possible to a certain degree. The best way to control it isn't to give your real name out on the internet if you don't have to and be aware of where your name is. Certain organizations publish member lists; if your name appears on a web-accessible membership list and you don't want it there the best way is to notify the webmaster of that site.

  39. Re:If, so this would be a huge boon for slashdot.. by FreshFunk510 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Personally, I don't think it's the hatred of other companies that drives Google fanboyism (I'm a fanboy myself, I'll admit it).

    What makes it exciting for me is that they are the one company, at this point in time, that seems to have that innovative drive along with the resources to fund those ideas. I don't have Microsoft or Yahoo... they just appear to have lost their drive. They improve their products, but they always seem to be in lockstep behind Google. (Some examples: Yahoo releases Search. Google releases search plus Page Rank. Now Yahoo does their own version of Page Rank.)

    What makes us nerds excited is true innovation. What makes us more excited is innovation that WORKS. Google seems to be committed to this vision. Who knows? Maybe they'll go the way of Yahoo when it transitioned from innovator to large, corporate company.

    On a final note, I don't think people here are blindly devoted to Google. I think it's that western sort of competition that drives us to like the innovator, the little guy, the people who make it and keep it exciting. If Google becomes stale, if they become a more settled company with little innovation, then we will be looking for The Next Big Thing.

    --


    "Injustice anywhere is a threat to justice everywhere." - Martin Luther King, Jr.
  40. What if Apple has peaked? by Jugalator · · Score: 4, Interesting

    He believes Microsoft's greatest threat may come from Apple, in that case I believe he may be living in the past, thinking companies of the past may pose the largest threats. What if people like him are wrong, and Google's mission and their web services is the model for many future IT companies, and the actual hardware you buy will start playing less of a role than it once used to? Even today, I notice myself buying brand new computer systems far less than before. Not even the games (and yes, it's modern games) require a new computer as often as they used to. More often than not, it's just about a new graphics card if anything at all, not about upgrading your 8 MB ram to 16 MB like you used to. You can often keep running with the 512 MB you bought four years ago.

    And when it's about web services, it's their hardware that matters, not Apple's. It seems like the author is putting an awful lot of trust in that hardware markets will decide everything, in an age when web services become more and more complex.

    --
    Beware: In C++, your friends can see your privates!
    1. Re:What if Apple has peaked? by interstellar_donkey · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I think you hit the nail squarely on the head. What a lot of people fail to understand--the author of the article included--is that the tech world is not just going through another shift, but that the nature of the tech world is change. It's unlikely to ever become stagnant.

      I honestly can't understand the latest popular mantra: "Google has peaked". It seems that those espousing that view or so deeply rooted in traditional ideas of what or how a business should perform that they fail to see that the real beauty of a company like Google is that it doesn't set its sights on any one particular market or business because it understands the fluid nature of the tech world.

      From the article: It will take the company another five years just to mature the businesses they already have

      That statement is screaming ignorance of the tech business world and a devotion to old fashioned thinking. Specifically: "Find a product or service, slowly develop it over a period of years, fight competitors for market share, and comfortably become one of the leaders in the industry". That way of thinking might work great if your in the business of selling bird feeders, but it's folly to suggest it should be an acceptable business plan in the tech world.

      In another five years, the "businesses they already have" may be irrelevant. Remember, Windows 95 was released only 10 years ago last Wednesday. In August of '95, very few companies even had web pages. IT was exclusively a productivity focus, and had next to nothing to do with marketing. Assuming a geometric increase in change (which isn't all that unreasonable), we can only speculate in dim generalities what the tech world will be like in 5 years.

      A company that's going enjoy long term success in the ever changing tech world is one that doesn't spend too much time developing any one product line, because something else can come along which literarily overnight renders that product or service moot.

      Google seems to understand this. While their roots are in the search engine, they've proven to be quite adept at entering new avenues and in a very short period of time offering a service which is significantly better then their competitors.

      While no one other then those who are the inside can say for sure, it appears that their path to success is pretty simple:

      1. Find out what people want, and give it to them. While Google was working on making their search engine faster and further reaching, Yahoo was trying to turn their search engine into an "Internet Portal". The thing is, people wanted a better search engine. Nobody wanted, or even asked for a portal. Google says "We're going to provide for people what they say they want" while Yahoo was saying "We're going to provide something for people that we think they want". While Yahoo's search page was becoming more and more cluttered with useless widgets, Google's page was simple and to the point. (to see what I mean, go to http://www.yahoo.com/ and then http://www.google.com./ If all you want to do is search for a webpage, the simple design of Google's search engine suggests a greater utility).

      2. Don't fill customer's heads with marketing hype about how you think your product should be used. Instead, make your product versatile and flexible enough so that others can discover a way to use it to its fullest potential. Google maps (maps.google.com) is a great example of this. Take a look first at one of Google's competitors in this field: Mapquest. At the top of the page is a claim of what Mapquest can do. "You can find it!". There's another blurb at the bottom about how great they are because you can use Mapquest to link maps from your website. A full quarter of the page is devoted to an advertisement. There are links for finding everything from Hotel rooms to fishing trips. Yet, despite all of these fancy, in your face claims of how great Mapquest is, it's still little more t

      --
      The Internet is generally stupid
  41. They have now. by zoogies · · Score: 2, Funny

    Has Google peaked? What!? Who dared violate the Eleventh Commandment? Google is on its way to free WiFi for like, everyone, and taking over the freakin' world! Of course it hasn't peaked! Of course...it has now, thanks to t3h slashd0t effect.

  42. Re:Why the Apple thing is silly by vidarh · · Score: 2, Interesting
    You better go back and read the article again. What he is suggesting is that when Apple releases a new version (i.e. 10.5) they should give away the old version on IPod's (i.e. 1.4) to woo new users to try it out.

    Apple wouldn't make any money off those new users right away, but whatever percentage of them chose to keep using OS X would be candidates for buying an upgrade somewhere down the line, and perhaps even buying Apple hardware.

    And I didn't see any suggestion anywhere that the IPod was suggested as the permanent storage - it could just as well be used just as install media.

    The iPod suggestion was as a means to put OS X in the hands of Apple friendly Windows users to grow the base of OS X users. Putting out torrents might be a good idea for Apple too, but it would still require people to make a conscious decision to use a lot of time to download it as opposed to looking at a leaflet with their shiny new iPod and deciding to give it a spin and see what it's like.

  43. google will peak then sell it's marketing data by gba · · Score: 2, Interesting

    perhaps i'm alone in feeling this way, but no company has a soul. none. any corporation in our capitalist economy has one goal: create a return for investors (or, make money).

    what does this have to do with google? simple. a company like google saying 'do no evil' is the most banal meaningless and baseless statement ever, unless you've seen the shell ads talking about 'human power' and 'alternative fuels'. there's absolutely no reason for google to 'do no evil', there's no market share that's based on the ability for a company to be 'evil free'.

    where does that leave us? my feeling, and i feel very strongly this way, is that google (although they won't admit it) collects and aggregates marketing data, hoards of marketing data. because of their policy towards 'do no evil', they fail to recycle most of this data, other than for their own adsense network. once this stock plateaus, whenever that happens, they'll annonce that they're releasing their marketing data, lay off all their phd's, and the board/heads of the company will be instant billionares (as if they weren't already, but that's the way it works, the collection of capital, more capital.)

    to break it down:
    1) collect marketing data
    2) ipo
    3) plateau
    4) release marketing data
    5) $

    --
    Greg Albrecht (gba@undef.net) * -0700 GMT/UTC
    http://undef.net
  44. Has Google climaxed? by KingSkippus · · Score: 4, Funny

    Then perhaps "peaked" is the wrong word to toss around here.

    The porn market, eh? Now THAT'S an industry in which Google has the potential to experience large growth, but the road ahead would be long and hard. Any thoughts at this point would be premature, don't you think?

    But if they do manage to penetrate that market, they should give themselves a hand--job well done!

  45. I like Google by eihab · · Score: 2, Insightful
    ... and here's why:
    • Google's services are free
    • The advertisements are not intrusive
    • The search engine is very useful to me
    • Gmail is simple to use and generous in terms of space
    • The list goes on...
    I don't care if their motto is "do no evil" or not. As long as I see and perceive no evil *AND* I like the service I'm getting, I see no reason to hate them.

    I'm not going to blindly follow some faceless comment or story telling me to think Google is evil *or* good. I make up my own damn mind!
    --
    If you can't mod them join them.