Current-Gen Price Drop and 360 Shortage

Gamespot is running an article reporting that Activision's Robert Kotick believes that current generation games will drop in price due to the arrival of next-gen consoles. From the article: "Unfortunately for current-generation holdouts, Kotick also said that publishers will quickly shift their development efforts away from today's consoles, which has been the case in the past, when the introduction of the PlayStation 2, Xbox, and GameCube games saw PlayStation and Nintendo 64 development plummet." Meanwhile, the retail chain EBGames has announced that it has presold it's allotment of 360 consoles. From the article: "We are currently sold out of our popular Xbox 360 bundles ... Check back frequently for more opportunities to pre-order an Xbox 360."

Comments

Re:i won an...

[Pulse_Instance]

well I'll be the first to say. I hate you.

Comment removed

[account_deleted]

Comment removed based on user account deletion

Out of Xbox360s?

[vertinox]

Oh hell! And I was thinking to myself how I missed out on Ebaying more DS's when there was a shortage.

News?

[Otonotachibana]

How many people out there were actually expecting pricing of our current gen games to not drop? In Japan, where production for older (Neogeo)and even defunct systems (Dreamcast) continued through several console generations, this might be news. Here in the states anyone who would pay $50.00 for an N64 game, Genesis, or Nintendo would be declared non copus mentus. Doesn't matter how well-crafted the game, the US console market is unforgiving of older tech.

Re:News?

[porcupine8]

Here in the states anyone who would pay $50.00 for an N64 game, Genesis, or Nintendo would be declared non copus mentus.

Well, until it becomes a collector's item.

Re:News?

[Chemical]

Hehe yeah. The people who buy these things have evidently never heard of an emulator. I sold my mint copy of Chrono Trigger on for about $80 (which incedentally about what I paid for it new). From the looks of it, my copy of Valkyire Profile could fetch significantly more than I paid for it.

Re:News?

[AvitarX]

I like the blinking power button and screen a lot too.

Re:News?

[porcupine8]

Or maybe they're like me - I do not put games on my computer. I waste enough time on the web as it is - if I allowed games on my computer I would NEVER get ANY work done. Games are for consoles...

EB Games and "Pre-orders"

[Gojira Shipi-Taro]

From the article: "We are currently sold out of our popular Xbox 360 bundles ... Check back frequently for more opportunities to pre-order an Xbox 360."

Translation: "We are not currently ripping people off with our pre-orders, and our minimum wage managers are incapable of gauging demand well enough for our buyers to just buy the right number of consoles, so we're going to pretend to be sold out for a while, so that when we magically "discover" more bundles about 3 weeks before launch, the drooling masses will fight each other for the right to be bent over the sales counter and screwed."

Fuck it, it'll be in the store when I go to buy it (not from EB) or it won't. If not, the money will go to some other toy this year. Besides, MS said they were producing tons so that there would be no shortages. Far be it from me to belive something Microsoft said, but in the grand scope of things, I think Gamestop/EB are being more deceptive here than the manufacturer.

Re:EB Games and "Pre-orders"

[Gojira Shipi-Taro]

Gah... the translation should read "We are not currently ripping ENOUGH people off" ...

Yea preview...hooray for preview...

Re:EB Games and "Pre-orders"

[cgenman]

"Xbox 360
SOLD OUT!
We are currently sold out of our popular Xbox 360 bundles. Check back frequently for more opportunities to pre-order an Xbox 360, Microsoft's next-gen gaming system that ships November 21."

Oddly enough, it doesn't actually say that EB itself is sold out of pre orders, or that there won't be any more available. From the recommendation to "check back frequently," it sounds like they might just be holding some back in order to try to enduce panic buying. Then they'll release the rest of their stock. Or maybe the brick-and-mortar parts of the chain are hogging all of the available presales, to be sure that they can sell some in every territory. This is all speculation, of course.

Annoyingly enough, you have to pre-order anything you want at EB: They never get more than one or two per store. It's like they have no idea what a demand curve looks like. That's why I stopped shopping there. I lost a lot of faith in EB when the copy of Zelda that I had "pre-ordered" mysteriously didn't show up with their first batch of games, but every other store in the mall still had plenty.

Re:EB Games and "Pre-orders"

[Anonymous Coward]

the drooling masses will fight each other for the right to be bent over the sales counter and screwed.

WHOAH! This is my chance! I'm gonna quit my boring programming job and apply for a counter job at EB today.

Re:EB Games and "Pre-orders"

[Babbster]

Annoyingly enough, you have to pre-order anything you want at EB: They never get more than one or two per store. It's like they have no idea what a demand curve looks like. That's why I stopped shopping there.

It's not that they can't predict demand, and certainly they can get more as demand rises. The issue for EB and Gamestop (though I've found my local version of the latter to be well-stocked on the rare occasions I want a game on the release date) is that their business model precludes overstocking new games and relying on the $5/unit profit margin there. Those stores are trying to stock as few new games as they can - just barely enough, especially in the first month of release, to hopefully satisfy "early" customers - and then buy back the games from customers at $5-20 a pop to sell used for $25-45.

It's a pretty simple equation if you look at a single game. The customer comes in, spends $50 on the game, then comes back in a month or two later and sells the game back to the store for, say, $20. They then turn the game back around by putting it back on the shelf for $45 ($5 off new prices, and a $5 discount in a market where nearly everyone sells at MSRP is a good deal). So, instead of making just $5 on that game, they've managed to make $10. And that profit goes up even higher if the person selling back the game was willing to take less money ($10-15 for a recent game, $5-10 for something older) or if that copy can be recycled yet again when the second customer tires of it.

Short version? Selling new games isn't a very good deal unless you're into other business. That other business for EB, Gamestop and other used game resellers is selling used games.

Re:EB Games and "Pre-orders"

[superpulpsicle]

But eventually stores are stuck with an inventory that they can't get rid of. Space cost money in a tiny store like EB. You would think the best scenario is if they sold a game and it never came back.

Re:EB Games and "Pre-orders"

[Babbster]

I had long answers for you, but they just seemed unwieldy and unnecessary. Short answer: That's what warehouses are for. :)

Re:EB Games and "Pre-orders"

[KDR_11k]

5$ isn't really a good deal. It would be, if the goods were identical but a used game clearly isn't as good as a new game (you risk getting a used CD key or a scratched disc). I can often get a 5$ discount just by shopping around (in my experience EB or other dedicated games stores are a bit more expensive than larger retailers).

Re:EB Games and "Pre-orders"

[KDR_11k]

Warehouse space isn't free either so goods that don't sell rotting away in a warehouse cost money, too. That space could have been used for goods that do sell.

Re:EB Games and "Pre-orders"

[Threni]

> short answer: That's what warehouses are for. :

Warehouses are a bad idea. You can't sell stock from a warehouse - it just sits there stopping you from stocking something else! Ideally you have a delivery system where you can get the games from the distributor to your shelves pretty quickly. This is the sort of thing that makes supermarkets such as Tescos loads of money - instead of being stuck with loads of stuff and having to protect, chill, stock count it etc, you give the guys who deliver your stuff little windows of time to turn up with you stuff. If they're not there then you find someone else, and with companies as big as Tescos you'll have no problem finding someone else. Makes life hard for delivery companies though, as they pay the price for any problems which stop them from getting to Tescos on time.

Things aren't quite the same for a shop that sells games as it is for a large supermarket, but there are similarities.

Re:EB Games and "Pre-orders"

[Babbster]

You're right. Somehow I was counting the initial purchase of the new game, forgetting that the $5 already takes into consideration buying the initial game. Math is hard, especially that pesky addition and subraction. :)

Re:EB Games and "Pre-orders"

[Babbster]

Well, I barely consider PC games in a discussion like this because they're such a tiny part of a used game store's business, and because CD-keys make buying PC games too risky.

As for scratched discs, both EB and Gamestop (the two biggies, soon to be one biggie) offer replacement for used games that don't work. I've never had a problem with that, and if I did I'd just bring it back.

I don't know if you're talking about PC games when it comes to getting prices because it's VERY rare for console games to get any discount at all, anywhere (usually only the very biggest games at the very biggest retailers). Again, the profit margin on them is too low. PC games usually have higher margins if for no other reason than hardware manufacturers aren't taking a cut.

Re:Perhaps one should try out something else...

[Anonymous Coward]

Avoid one scam; falling for another.

Re:i won an...

[Meagermanx]

Dude, I win those all the time. They're all like "Click the puppy to win an XBOX 360", and I'm all clicking the puppy. It's just that easy. Why would these people pay $400.00 for an XBOX 360? They must suck at puppy-clicking.

Re:Vintage Zonk

[Meagermanx]

If you don't like Zonk, and you don't like his articles, why do you bother reading them, visiting the links, and replying to them? Maybe you should edit your account to not display his articles, so you're not tempted to waste other people's time by posting purely Zonk-trashing posts.

Not all jumping ship...

[RyoShin]

Unfortunately for current-generation holdouts, Kotick also said that publishers will quickly shift their development efforts away from today's consoles, which has been the case in the past, when the introduction of the PlayStation 2,

Except that not everyone jumped ship when the PS2 came out. For a while into the PS2 life, PS1 games still came out, because the PS2 could play them. It was a great way to break into the market for small developers- use the older technology to build a game at a cheaper cost, and let it be playable to those just with a PS1 as well as those with a PS2.

It was also a great fail safe- if the PS2 failed (and we know it didn't, nor did it look that way,) those who made the PS1 games would still be able to sell due to the massive amounts of PS systems that were sold. Even up to a year ago, the odd PS1 game still came out (at least in Japan), even though the PSOne's life time was basically over.

You're going to see the same thing this round. I haven't been following PS3 news, but I believe it's still backwards compatible, no? And the Revolution certainly will be. As far as I know, the XBox 360 still only has limited backwards compatibility- only the more popular XBox games will be playable on the 360. There will be no XBox games within four months of the 360's release.

However, as with the PS1-PS2 generation, you will be seeing releases for both the Gamecube and PS2 well up to a year or two years after the release of the PS3 and NRV. Cheap games for consumers, cheap games for producers, and the assurance that they will still have a wide audience, even with the new consoles.

This might be a big thing for the XBox 360- if everyone has to dump the original XBox, you won't have cheap-but-new games to entice newcomers or the mom that wants to get more than one game for her kid for Christmas. If the 360 does fail, it probably won't be for this, but this could be a factor.

Re:Not all jumping ship...

[ivan256]

For a while into the PS2 life, PS1 games still came out

If by "for a while," you mean "to this day," then you're correct. (Actually, I don't know if that's fair, since I think it's been six months since the last release, but it's still recent.)

It was a great way to break into the market for small developers

No, it was a cash cow for existing developers with mature PlayStation engines (EA Sports, for example), and developed demand for the PSone, which didn't come out until well after the PS2 was released.

Similarly, expect Sony to continue to manufacture and sell slim PS2s for years after the PS3 release. Don't be surprised when they sell like hotcakes at $79 either.

Re:Not all jumping ship...

[Castar]

It's been longer than that. The last PS1 game to be released was Madden '05.

But you're right, the PS1 had a very long lifespan, and most of its sales were made AFTER the PS2 was released.

Re:Not all jumping ship...

[Quarem]

Actually MS announced earlier this year that the Xbox 1 would be supported with new titles through 2007.

http://www.joystiq.com/entry/1234000770039609/
http://games.kikizo.com/news/200504/038.asp

Re:Not all jumping ship...

[AlexMax2742]

As far as I know, the XBox 360 still only has limited backwards compatibility- only the more popular XBox games will be playable on the 360. There will be no XBox games within four months of the 360's release.

Perhaps, but to clarify things I think it was stated that the major hurdle for the Xbox360 was the graphics side of things. Microsoft finally threw their hands up and licenced the approprite tech from nVidia instead of reverse-engineering it so decent backwards-compatability is more likely.

And lack of hard drive is not going to be a problem. You're going to need one to save data anyway, unless they are also selling those flash memory device 'memory cards' as well like they did for the origional Xbox.

Cue Obnoxious French Accent...

[iridium_ionizer]

It's simple cause and effect.

My apologies to all French people without obnoxious accents. But really isn't this simple. Developers claim that a AAA game (with all new content - not Rehash Sports '05) takes about 3 to 4 years now from cradle to gold. So it would rational to assume that when developers received development kits for the new consoles, they did a little house cleaning.

They took a look at the games that they were currently developing and had to decide if they would rather a) release that game for a future old-gen system (with a large player base, but dwindling hype), b) cancel the game (to concentrate resources on games with more potential), or c) make the game a next-gen game by using existing next-gen tech/content they've been developing and adapting it to the next-gen developer kits technology.

Probably the bigger change will come after Christmas of '06. By then publishers/developers will have a fairly good idea of what the size and demographics of each of the next-gen systems will be for the next few years. That will determine the number, types, and quality of games released during the "golden years" of each console.

Make no mistake publishers may not know creativity, but they sure know business. I seriously doubt if any large 3rd party publisher will cast off any segment of the market right now. They will likely have a mixed basket for the new consoles to offset the risk. But they will also prepare and wait for the "good" market data to come in.

Re:Cue Obnoxious French Accent...

[th3space]

"My apologies to all French people without obnoxious accents. But really isn't this simple. Developers claim that a AAA game (with all new content - not Rehash Sports '05)..."

Come on, let's be fair to EA, here...it's Rehash Sports '06 now. ;)

Re:Vintage Zonk

[caitsith01]

Uh huh. And how many stories in the games section would I get then? 2-3 a week? It is a fairly facile argument to say 'if you don't like it, leave.' I used to like it, and I want to stay.

Sounds like an opportunity...

[dpilot]

I've been thinking of picking up an X-Box specifically for a MythTV front-end, and had figured I'd wait and pick up a good price on a used one, from some early adopter. But then again, maybe I can just get a good price on a brand new one.

I presume recent-vintage X-Boxes are still under the owner's control. They've said that won't be true of the 360.

Re:Sounds like an opportunity...

[KillShill]

it won't be true for any system by default.

unless someone gives control of their hardware back to the customers, you just paid sony/ms/nintendo lots of money for them to rent you a hardware system. not having full access to something is by definition a rental. you and i do not own them.

Re:Sounds like an opportunity...

[Lokre]

I'm already planning on picking up a copule of xboxes once they hit the sub-$99 mark if for anything cheap media center pcs. 5 minutes to softmod, 3 minutes to transfer over xbmc and you have a descent set-top box that will stream virtually any video/audio file from a server. Plus it'll play Phantom Dust. Can't beat that...

now if only i had a long stick so I wouldn't have to get off the couch to turn the thing on without having a long cable draped across the livng room floor....

Re:Sounds like an opportunity...

[nb caffeine]

http://www.xbox-scene.com/articles/rf-power.php

remote RF power switch for xbox. Ive been wanting to do this.

Shortage! AHHHH! Run for your lives!

[Lisandro]

Meanwhile, the retail chain EBGames has announced that it has presold it's allotment of 360 consoles. From the article: "We are currently sold out of our popular Xbox 360 bundles ... Check back frequently for more opportunities to pre-order an Xbox 360."

    This is it. I can't wait a week or two for my shiny new game console... farewell, cruel world!

Re:Vintage Zonk

[Babbster]

To continue this offtopic discussion...

And how many stories in the games section would I get then? 2-3 a week? It is a fairly facile argument to say 'if you don't like it, leave.' I used to like it, and I want to stay.

How long have you been coming here? You just described exactly what the games section here used to be: Two or three stories a week, usually about how a game is finally coming to Linux, a company is thinking about including a Linux version in an upcoming game, or yet another rant about how gaming was so much better 15 years ago and that's why we should all be using emulators and by the way check out the cool new Linux NES emulator. Oh yeah, and least a story a month about how cool Kali is...okay, maybe I've just been here too long.

The vast majority of "fresh" videogame material on Ye Olden Interweb consists of advertisements and fluff. That's just the way it is. If you have BETTER stories, then submit them - that is, after all, how this site works. If those great stories are rejected, include them in your anti-editor rants. Then, perhaps, someone on high will care what you think.

Gamestop/EB

[HSaabedra]

As an employee (slave) of Gamestop. I can tell you that margins on new games/systems is closer to $1.00-$1.75 per unit. The store managers for the chain have no control over how many units are ordered for the store, those units are directly proportional to units reserved at each store on a 1:1 ratio or more depending on the total amount shipped to the distribution center. Why do you think we shove the sub/card down your throat.

should have been allocated more

[rishistar]

Meanwhile, the retail chain EBGames has announced that it has presold it's allotment of 360 consoles.

Should they not have been allocated more than 360 consoles? I'd have expected MS to plan on selling more than 7 per state.

I dont care.

[thelonestranger]

While all the early "I must have it the hour it comes out" adopters are killing each other and paying far to much to possess a console that wont have that many 'must have' games in the first six months, I'll be keeping myself happy buying all the discounted games and second hand games (sold for pittance by the aforsaid early adopters to fund X360 purchase) that I've not had the funds/time to play over the last 12 months. Maybe later on I'll buy a 360 but for now I've still got a whole back library of quality Xbox and PS2 titles that I havn't played yet.

Re:I dont care.

[iainl]

I'm in the same boat. I just recently did the necessary to my PS2 to play import titles, so I've all of a sudden got access to loads of great games like Katamari Damacy, Psyvariar 2 and Armored Core 9. There's no way I'm going to the next generation for a good year at least.

Re:I dont care.

[sdhankin]

Likewise; I was one of those who pre-ordered the PS2 and picked it up on the day of its release. On the other hand, I bought the Xbox and the Gamecube after they'd had a price drop and a fairly good bundle deal.

I won't make the same mistake again. I'm not in a big hurry to own any of the next generation consoles - I'll make my purchase when each realeases a game I feel is worth owning.

Duh?

[ildon]

Seriously, who didn't already know this. Developers slow down or stop development on the previous generation? Previous generation consoles see a drop in prices? Should I really bother to RTFA or is it just more useful info like the sky being blue?

Sick Of "Launch Bundles"

[thundar2000]

It really sucks that not only is the XBox way expensive for the real one, it is actually really really expensive because of EB forcing you to buy a bunch of crap launch titles when you want to get one.

After feeling screwed via the PSP bundle I got suckered into - talk about a crappy set of launch titles - this time I'm passing on any bundle offers.

I'll bide my time...

Get an XBOX for $800!

[thundar2000]

What a deal, on amazon through toys r us the bundle is 800 beans.

You are forced to get 7 games

Plus:

"Customize your new rig with this stylish metallic face plate."

So basically, if you want an XBox this year, get ready to spend 800 bucks and have to buy 7 games you don't get to pick and a shitty plastic 'stylish metallic face plate'

No Shortage of 360's

[rAiNsT0rm]

Somehow Zonk manages to throw in a real news item with a completely unsubstantiated blurb at the end, every time.

The fact of the matter is the POPULAR bundles which were initially alotted (at a fairly low number due to the actual uncertainty of how many each store will receive) are all spoken for. The ultra-insane bundles are still available at $1k+ This has NOTHING to do with any real shortages. Of an arbitrary low estimate of how many units EB will receive, the most common bundles have all been reserved. Wow, really?

Re:No Shortage of 360's

[ShibaInu]

Dude, shut the fuck up about Zonk already! While he may be repetitive, your song and dance is way more annoying.

Re:Vintage Zonk

[MrCopilot]

Yeah, tell us how that really makes you feel.

Even the regular news has turned into news for lawyers, shit no one cares about. http://it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=05/09/22/163 1247&tid=187&tid=233&tid=1&tid=218 I'm sure NOone cares about this.
What happened to science news? http://politics.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=05/09/ 22/2046236&tid=160&tid=103&tid=219
What happened to cool hacks? http://it.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=05/09/20/141 3244&tid=172&tid=218
What happened to neat gadgets, not advertisements? http://hardware.slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=05/09/ 20/0448208&tid=216&tid=106
What happened to tech. news? http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=05/09/21/133421 2&tid=95
If all there is now is Apple, Firefox, next-gen console speculation, 1up.com, lawsuits, and patent arguments... count me out.

OK,

PeopleInterestedInSlashotNews --;

Is there some other source of news that covers your interest better that we are keeping you from?
No, I think you check here for the discussion. Its kinda the point of the site to foster discussion about news items that interest/affect us. You can always watch G4 for your gaming news. BTW they usually cover 2 Slashdot stories a day.

I'm constantly amazed by the amount of complaining that's done here, I'd complain but that would be hypocritcal, no?

Move it already!

[geminidomino]

Come on, just shut up and release the 360! My PS2's drive is at over 3000 workhours and I need to replace it.

Come on price cuts, Daddy needs a new PS2!

Re:XBOX 360? Give me an XBOX

[AlexMax2742]

You're really missing out. Once the Xbox title's drop in price, you might have a rummage through the bargin bin to see just what you've beem missing.

Please, there's no "shortage"

[popo]

This sounds like a marketing ploy if I've ever heard one. Microsoft smells poor sales of the 360 because they've priced it (IMHO) way too high... so what do they do? Release fewer on to the market. Then they get to send out a news release (around December 1st) saying that the 360 is "totally sold out", "Extremely scarce!","Has a waiting list", etc. The press eats it up, creating millions of dollars in free advertising for Microsoft.

Then, surprise! Around December 12th they manage to find a few extra thousand units laying around and since there are waiting lists everywhere, the delay doesn't cost them a single sale.

This is about free press, marketing and stoking desire among consumers if you ask me.

Still, it might not be enough to get users to break out their wallets for a system that's priced at the price of a decent PC. Hell, once you price in controllers, the add-on hard drive, etc. You could build yourself a pretty sweet ITX machine.

My 2 cents.

Gaming obsession taken to the max

[smaffei]

I love games. I admit it. I'm almost 40 and I still love them. But, I can't see spending $700+ for something that will lose half that value in a year.

I mean, some of these bundles cost as much as some low end HDTVs. Also, this craziness might have the adverse effect of causing another gaming industry crash (remember 1984 not Orwell's but Atari's). These high priced consoles will sit on the shelves because the average joes feel that their PS2 or XBox is good enough (and they would be right).

I think a lot of people are going to take this wait and see approach. So, am I.

Unless, the new 360 DOA has a Kasumi "hot coffee" cheat. Then, all bets are off...