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Current-Gen Price Drop and 360 Shortage
Gamespot is running an article reporting that Activision's Robert Kotick believes that current generation games will drop in price due to the arrival of next-gen consoles. From the article: "Unfortunately for current-generation holdouts, Kotick also said that publishers will quickly shift their development efforts away from today's consoles, which has been the case in the past, when the introduction of the PlayStation 2, Xbox, and GameCube games saw PlayStation and Nintendo 64 development plummet." Meanwhile, the retail chain EBGames has announced that it has presold it's allotment of 360 consoles. From the article: "We are currently sold out of our popular Xbox 360 bundles ... Check back frequently for more opportunities to pre-order an Xbox 360."
XBOX 360...this is the happiest day of my liiiiife!!!!!!
I don't really see how this is any different than what happened with the last generation of consoles. Once the PS2 and the GameCube were released, Sony and Nintendo, while still offering some titles on the older consoles, shifted their focus on next-generation strategies and games. Third-party vendors were quick to follow. What the article didn't mention, though, is not only will development fall for the current systems, but product quality will fall as well. Developers will make half-assed attempts to put something out to appease those of us too poor or unwilling to buy a new system out of the game; but we can reasonably expect they're going to shift focus on what will bring in the dough.
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rarely does a new system have difficulties selling out presales; the real question is with how big the price tag is (and how close the Revolution and PS3 releases are) how well will it be selling in January?
I suspect that it will be doing about as well as the original XBox did; not well enough to become the market leader.
Oh hell! And I was thinking to myself how I missed out on Ebaying more DS's when there was a shortage.
"I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
-Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
How many people out there were actually expecting pricing of our current gen games to not drop? In Japan, where production for older (Neogeo)and even defunct systems (Dreamcast) continued through several console generations, this might be news. Here in the states anyone who would pay $50.00 for an N64 game, Genesis, or Nintendo would be declared non copus mentus. Doesn't matter how well-crafted the game, the US console market is unforgiving of older tech.
Translation: "We are not currently ripping people off with our pre-orders, and our minimum wage managers are incapable of gauging demand well enough for our buyers to just buy the right number of consoles, so we're going to pretend to be sold out for a while, so that when we magically "discover" more bundles about 3 weeks before launch, the drooling masses will fight each other for the right to be bent over the sales counter and screwed."
Fuck it, it'll be in the store when I go to buy it (not from EB) or it won't. If not, the money will go to some other toy this year. Besides, MS said they were producing tons so that there would be no shortages. Far be it from me to belive something Microsoft said, but in the grand scope of things, I think Gamestop/EB are being more deceptive here than the manufacturer.
"Oh my God. This is terrible. This is the end of my Presidency. I'm fucked."; ~ Donald J. Trump
I guess it's moronic corporations like EBGames that make me want to do something a little different. This time I'm trying to attempt to get a cheap 360 from http://xbox360.jasonandmary.com. Though I get annoyed that they claim thier product is free (it's not, you have to try an offer like NetFlix) and that you have to sign up 10 friends, it would be worth it not having to do buisness with EBGames or any of the other game ripoff shops.
It reminds me of Tom the visionary from News Radio.
"Water is wet."
Hmmm, you know I believe you may have something there. Would you be interested in collaborating on a publication?
Spare us please!
Hurry the fuck up and release the dead on arrival console and the go away MS!
The faster the 360 dies the quicker developers can concentrate on the amazing stuff that matters - PS3 and Cell hybrid rendering and wacked Revo controller stuff.
MS and the 360 is like having the obnoxious relative come to visit and everyone in the family is just waiting for them to JUST FUCKING LEAVE. Go back to the fucking x86 market where those types of developers give a shit about you.
What else do you expect, it's Zonk. Here we have a news story about another news story about a guy saying something really really obvious. Clearly ideal material for the ./ games page. ...and out come the mods.
Read Pynchon.
Unfortunately for current-generation holdouts, Kotick also said that publishers will quickly shift their development efforts away from today's consoles, which has been the case in the past, when the introduction of the PlayStation 2,
Except that not everyone jumped ship when the PS2 came out. For a while into the PS2 life, PS1 games still came out, because the PS2 could play them. It was a great way to break into the market for small developers- use the older technology to build a game at a cheaper cost, and let it be playable to those just with a PS1 as well as those with a PS2.
It was also a great fail safe- if the PS2 failed (and we know it didn't, nor did it look that way,) those who made the PS1 games would still be able to sell due to the massive amounts of PS systems that were sold. Even up to a year ago, the odd PS1 game still came out (at least in Japan), even though the PSOne's life time was basically over.
You're going to see the same thing this round. I haven't been following PS3 news, but I believe it's still backwards compatible, no? And the Revolution certainly will be. As far as I know, the XBox 360 still only has limited backwards compatibility- only the more popular XBox games will be playable on the 360. There will be no XBox games within four months of the 360's release.
However, as with the PS1-PS2 generation, you will be seeing releases for both the Gamecube and PS2 well up to a year or two years after the release of the PS3 and NRV. Cheap games for consumers, cheap games for producers, and the assurance that they will still have a wide audience, even with the new consoles.
This might be a big thing for the XBox 360- if everyone has to dump the original XBox, you won't have cheap-but-new games to entice newcomers or the mom that wants to get more than one game for her kid for Christmas. If the 360 does fail, it probably won't be for this, but this could be a factor.
It's simple cause and effect.
My apologies to all French people without obnoxious accents. But really isn't this simple. Developers claim that a AAA game (with all new content - not Rehash Sports '05) takes about 3 to 4 years now from cradle to gold. So it would rational to assume that when developers received development kits for the new consoles, they did a little house cleaning.
They took a look at the games that they were currently developing and had to decide if they would rather a) release that game for a future old-gen system (with a large player base, but dwindling hype), b) cancel the game (to concentrate resources on games with more potential), or c) make the game a next-gen game by using existing next-gen tech/content they've been developing and adapting it to the next-gen developer kits technology.
Probably the bigger change will come after Christmas of '06. By then publishers/developers will have a fairly good idea of what the size and demographics of each of the next-gen systems will be for the next few years. That will determine the number, types, and quality of games released during the "golden years" of each console.
Make no mistake publishers may not know creativity, but they sure know business. I seriously doubt if any large 3rd party publisher will cast off any segment of the market right now. They will likely have a mixed basket for the new consoles to offset the risk. But they will also prepare and wait for the "good" market data to come in.
There are a whoooooole lot of suckers in the game industry...
I've been thinking of picking up an X-Box specifically for a MythTV front-end, and had figured I'd wait and pick up a good price on a used one, from some early adopter. But then again, maybe I can just get a good price on a brand new one.
I presume recent-vintage X-Boxes are still under the owner's control. They've said that won't be true of the 360.
The living have better things to do than to continue hating the dead.
Meanwhile, the retail chain EBGames has announced that it has presold it's allotment of 360 consoles. From the article: "We are currently sold out of our popular Xbox 360 bundles ... Check back frequently for more opportunities to pre-order an Xbox 360."
This is it. I can't wait a week or two for my shiny new game console... farewell, cruel world!
As an employee (slave) of Gamestop. I can tell you that margins on new games/systems is closer to $1.00-$1.75 per unit. The store managers for the chain have no control over how many units are ordered for the store, those units are directly proportional to units reserved at each store on a 1:1 ratio or more depending on the total amount shipped to the distribution center. Why do you think we shove the sub/card down your throat.
Meanwhile, the retail chain EBGames has announced that it has presold it's allotment of 360 consoles.
Should they not have been allocated more than 360 consoles? I'd have expected MS to plan on selling more than 7 per state.
Professor Karmadillo Songs of Science
I officially nominate Robert Kotick for the annual Grand Master of the Obvious award. For mentioning something that has been obvious to gamers for the last twenty years or so.
There has to be a point missing from what Tor Thorsen wrote. Why did such a topic come up at a Bank of America Investment Conference of all places? Was Robert Kotick trying to dissuade investors from investing in Atari 2600 E.T. games or something? Microsoft and Sony are such massive companies that you can't very well just buy stock just on console performance and Nintendo doesn't sell their stock in the U.S. market. Is this a lame attempt to convince investors to invest in Activision with such a painfully obvious statement?
Most products drop in price when a newer or more desirable product hits the market. It's such a fact of life (at least in the U.S. noting the Japan statement elsewhere) that I could only imagine such a statement from someone who haven't been around any evolving consumer market for the last hundred years or so. The second lesson I ever learned about the gaming market were the price drops after new consoles were released. How to pop a quarter into an arcade machine being the first.
While all the early "I must have it the hour it comes out" adopters are killing each other and paying far to much to possess a console that wont have that many 'must have' games in the first six months, I'll be keeping myself happy buying all the discounted games and second hand games (sold for pittance by the aforsaid early adopters to fund X360 purchase) that I've not had the funds/time to play over the last 12 months. Maybe later on I'll buy a 360 but for now I've still got a whole back library of quality Xbox and PS2 titles that I havn't played yet.
To err is human. To forgive is not company policy.
Seriously, who didn't already know this. Developers slow down or stop development on the previous generation? Previous generation consoles see a drop in prices? Should I really bother to RTFA or is it just more useful info like the sky being blue?
It really sucks that not only is the XBox way expensive for the real one, it is actually really really expensive because of EB forcing you to buy a bunch of crap launch titles when you want to get one.
After feeling screwed via the PSP bundle I got suckered into - talk about a crappy set of launch titles - this time I'm passing on any bundle offers.
I'll bide my time...
What a deal, on amazon through toys r us the bundle is 800 beans.
You are forced to get 7 games
Plus:
"Customize your new rig with this stylish metallic face plate."
So basically, if you want an XBox this year, get ready to spend 800 bucks and have to buy 7 games you don't get to pick and a shitty plastic 'stylish metallic face plate'
Somehow Zonk manages to throw in a real news item with a completely unsubstantiated blurb at the end, every time.
The fact of the matter is the POPULAR bundles which were initially alotted (at a fairly low number due to the actual uncertainty of how many each store will receive) are all spoken for. The ultra-insane bundles are still available at $1k+ This has NOTHING to do with any real shortages. Of an arbitrary low estimate of how many units EB will receive, the most common bundles have all been reserved. Wow, really?
http://teasphere.wordpress.com - A little spot of tea
Personally, I couldn't care less about the drop in price of XBOX software, I can't wait for the drop in price of the hardware. I'll definitely be picking up a few XBOX's and modding them all and putting one in every room of my house. If I could pick up the cheap wireless cards that would be great too.
Perhaps I'm the only one but once I modded my XBOX, gaming on it almost became a non-point. I played all my games on the Cube and the PS2 and simply used my XBOX as a media player. It would be awesome to have a box like this in all my rooms hooked up to my network with access to all the stuff on my HDD. Not to mention all the other stuff people turned XBOX's into like server farms and such. If the system goes down to less than $50 I will be picking up quite a few of them.
I do believe I remember there also being a shortage of the original X-Boxes when they were being released. Either, too many people like Microsoft or Microsoft isn't making enough consoles. And, why would they even include this information in an article? Of COURSE the old console prices are going to drop, how obvious is that. There is always a higher demand for the newer and usually better stuff, so the price for the old stuff goes down. That's just common sense.
Come on, just shut up and release the 360! My PS2's drive is at over 3000 workhours and I need to replace it.
Come on price cuts, Daddy needs a new PS2!
This sounds like a marketing ploy if I've ever heard one. Microsoft smells poor sales of the 360 because they've priced it (IMHO) way too high... so what do they do? Release fewer on to the market. Then they get to send out a news release (around December 1st) saying that the 360 is "totally sold out", "Extremely scarce!","Has a waiting list", etc. The press eats it up, creating millions of dollars in free advertising for Microsoft.
Then, surprise! Around December 12th they manage to find a few extra thousand units laying around and since there are waiting lists everywhere, the delay doesn't cost them a single sale.
This is about free press, marketing and stoking desire among consumers if you ask me.
Still, it might not be enough to get users to break out their wallets for a system that's priced at the price of a decent PC. Hell, once you price in controllers, the add-on hard drive, etc. You could build yourself a pretty sweet ITX machine.
My 2 cents.
------ The best brain training is now totally free : )
Redundant?
What asshat modded this as redundant, being the first on-topic post in the freakin' thread. What's redundant is the article itself.
I love games. I admit it. I'm almost 40 and I still love them. But, I can't see spending $700+ for something that will lose half that value in a year.
I mean, some of these bundles cost as much as some low end HDTVs. Also, this craziness might have the adverse effect of causing another gaming industry crash (remember 1984 not Orwell's but Atari's). These high priced consoles will sit on the shelves because the average joes feel that their PS2 or XBox is good enough (and they would be right).
I think a lot of people are going to take this wait and see approach. So, am I.
Unless, the new 360 DOA has a Kasumi "hot coffee" cheat. Then, all bets are off...
Sure, Windows PCs dominate the market. But so do cheap toupees.