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2005 Will Probably be Warmest on Record

Nilmat writes "A Washington Post Article notes that 2005 will probably have the highest mean global temperature of any year since the advent of systematic temperature records. At the moment, the mean temperature is about 0.75 degrees C above the global mean from 1950 to 1990, approximately .04 degrees higher than 1998, the year of the previous record. Only something dramatic, such as a major volcanic eruption, could cause enough cooling to miss setting a new record."

107 of 698 comments (clear)

  1. Massive volcano eruption??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    Seeing as how I live 30 miles North of Yellowstone, I'm not rooting for that option.

    1. Re:Massive volcano eruption??? by bigman2003 · · Score: 5, Funny

      Nothing to worry about here. That temperature change is in CELSIUS...we measure temperature in FARENHEIT, so it won't make a difference in America.

      Thank god we're not in Canadia.

      --
      No reason to lie.
  2. Let me be the first to say by Kobun · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Correlation is not causation.

    1. Re:Let me be the first to say by akzeac · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Correlation is not causation.

      But it's the main requisite.

    2. Re:Let me be the first to say by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Why, because an empty logical truism is all you've got as you desperately attempt to deny manmade climate change? Try arguing with the causation in Workweek Causes Climate Change". It's just correlation, right?

      --

      --
      make install -not war

    3. Re:Let me be the first to say by Erioll · · Score: 3, Interesting
      How about This Site?

      Some excerpts:
      Myth 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate.
      Fact: Accurate satellite, balloon and mountain top observations made over the last three decades have not shown any significant change in the long term rate of increase in global temperatures.

      Average ground station readings do show a mild warming over the last 100 years, but well within the natural variations recorded in the last millenium. The ground station network suffers from an uneven distribution across the globe; the stations are preferentially located in growing urban and industrial areas ("heat islands") which show substantially higher readings than adjacent rural areas ("land use effects").

      And this:
      Myth 3: Human produced carbon dioxide has increased over the last 100 years, adding to the Greenhouse effect, thus warming the earth.

      Fact: Carbon dioxide levels have indeed changed for various reasons, human and otherwise, just as they have throughout geologic time. The CO2 increase was only 0.4% over the last 50 years, rather than the 5% per 100 years quoted by Kyoto. However, as measured in ice cores dated over many thousands of years, CO2 levels move up and down AFTER the temperature has done so, and thus are the RESULT OF, NOT THE CAUSE of warming. Geological field work in recent sediments confirms this. There is solid evidence that as temperatures rise naturally and cyclically, the earth's oceans expel more CO2 as a result.

      And don't forget the worst greenhouse gas of all: WATER VAPOUR!
      Myth 4: CO2 is the most common greenhouse gas.

      Fact: Water vapour or clouds, which makes up on average about 3 % of the atmosphere by volume, and - according to several researchers - about 60% by effect, is the major greenhouse gas. 97% of greenhouse gases are water vapour by volume. Moreover, because of its molecular weight and absorptive capacity, water vapour is 3000 times more effective than CO2 as a greenhouse gas. Those attributing climate change to CO2 rarely mention this important fact.

      Better start campaigning to remove all the water vapour emissions. Oh wait, water covers 71% of the earth's surface. No dice there...

      Yes there are advocates for global warming, and "evidence" therein, but there is much evidence against it, and ESPECIALLY against man-made warming. Today's Calgary Sun article by Licia Corbella also has some things to say on the topic.
    4. Re:Let me be the first to say by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Sure there are lots of Greenhouse deniers, and no shortage of oil-business newspapers, like the Calgary Alberta Sun, that will print them. Because there's no shortage of oil and coal money to buy their hot air the press that keeps them in business.

      But enough of dignifying your industry FUD propaganda with exposure. How about you just explain how the human workweek doesn't change the weather, in light of that Scientific American article to which I linked?

      Then again, if you think people who want us to survive the Greenhouse we're creating somehow want all climate warming to be eliminated, it will be a cold day in hell before you have anything worthwhile to hear on the subject.

      --

      --
      make install -not war

    5. Re:Let me be the first to say by Spy+der+Mann · · Score: 5, Informative

      I'd rather listen to a scientist than to a "friend" of science.

      It seems very suspicious than an organization could be dedicated EXCLUSIVELY to deny claims about global warming.

      Plus, why is it called with such an emotionally moving name like "friends of science"?

      I searched google, and the only references to friendsofscience.org were forums inside that same site. Plus, I checked the hosting company, and it's "reveal.ca", a BUSINESS SEARCH company.

      Can you spell "Astroturfing"?

      Look, it's MORE THAN OBVIOUS that companies will lose A LOT OF MONEY if the U.S. abides by the Kyoto Protocol. Don't you think that they will start creating phantom organisations to dismiss the idea of global warming?

      Look, we all know what companies like Microsoft are capable of. You think companies that produce huge emissions of CO2 and other pollutants wouldn't do ANYTHING to keep earning money?

      I'm sorry but you seem to naive to believe the "friends of science".

    6. Re:Let me be the first to say by Daimaou · · Score: 2, Funny

      Why is it that news articles YOU link to are insightful, informative, and, most importantly, true, whereas the news articles cited by your opponents are propagandist lies construed to deceive the weak minds of your average, everyday citizen?

      Just wondering.

    7. Re:Let me be the first to say by Stephan+Schulz · · Score: 4, Informative
      If they are "friends of science", they maybe should read some current papers - and maybe not quote old ones out of context. As far as "Myth 1" is concerned, it is true that there has been (and to a small degree still is) a discrepancy between surface temperature and climate models on the one side, and balloon and satellite data on the other hand. However, recent publications have very nearly closed that gap. It turned out that the satellite data suffered from undetected orbital drift (i.e. the satellites reported night time temperatures as day time temperatures) and the balloons suffer from a number of sensor and calibration problems. If the data is corrected for these errors, there is a rather good fit with current climate models.

      "Myth 4" is another mixture of truth and falsehood. Yes, water vapour is a greenhouse gas. However, relative humidity is more or less a constant in the atmosphere. Thus, the amount of water vapour (absolute humidity) is driven by the temperature. In this way water vapour increases the effect of any other heating - its an amplifier, but not a cause of global warming.

      If you look over the site, you find more gems. "Myth 6", for example, not-cites the 1996 IPCC report, totally ignoring the current (2001) and upcoming reports.

      Wikipedia has a reasonable good set of articles on global warming.

      --

      Stephan

    8. Re:Let me be the first to say by Doc+Ruby · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Let me be the first to say that correlation is even less a denier of causation than it is a confirmer. And that, in the absence of a positable common cause, the correlation of two trends is good evidence of causation. Further, that when one trend, climate change, cannot be shown to cause another, human changes to the global environment, and there is no evidence that that other trend impedes the first, then the case for that other trend, human changes to the environment, as cause of the first, climate change, is compelling.

      Then there's correlations so close that they're undeniably causation. Especially when the mechanics of the causation are understood enough to immediately recognize, like manmade pollution creating the Greenhouse. Oh, and while we're retaining our objective scientific tone, I'll add that manmade climate change is the most reliable model we have, with which we successfully make predictions about further climate change. Having discharged that responsibility, I'll also point out that invoking abstract scientific principles to create FUD about how we're destroying ourselves to satisfy the greed of aging industrialists who never suffer any consequences for anything is really stupid. QED.

      --

      --
      make install -not war

    9. Re:Let me be the first to say by fyngyrz · · Score: 4, Insightful
      But it's the main requisite.

      Sometimes it is. But quite often, it is the main thing leading you down the wrong path.

      In this case, the "I know what's happening crowd" is looking at some very tiny variations from a very abbreviated data set and drawing some very large conclusions from them, and then clamoring for some very profound and difficult reactions on the part of, well, just about everyone.

      It is well to keep in mind that that the .04 degree quoted in the article is not .04% (it is much less) and that the highest recorded temperature means that we've got a number which should be evaluated as one sample out of 1x10^6 if we want to understand what this year's temperature stats mean in terms of human history.

      Yet... it can only be evaluated as one sample out of 2x10^3, which can be fairly characterized as what it means to my grandfather and not a lot more.

      That's not to say that global warming is, or isn't, happening. Just that these temperature measurements are woefully lacking as good quality signposts. We can add to that a few core measurements and some general knowledge, which doesn't significantly improve the quality of the data for our current situation.

      We should keep in mind that the earth sees huge temperature swings without the aid of man's actions. At one time, North America was tropical here in Montana. I live not even 15 miles from where you can dig T. Rex skeletons from the ground as well as tropical vegetation. At another time, this area was covered by glaciers. Neither circumstance required or depended upon man's intervention or activity.

      Yes, the world changes without our approval. Yes, we'll have to adapt if it does. Yes, we'll have to be clever about it when the changes are major. No, this year's temperature isn't a certain sign of any such change. Yes, we should continue to pay attention. No, we shouldn't start running around like chickens.

      We now return you to your usual sensationalist ravings. :-)

      --
      I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
    10. Re:Let me be the first to say by schtum · · Score: 3, Funny

      Some people think they can filibuster the apocolypse.

  3. My plans are on track by waynemcdougall · · Score: 4, Funny
    Only something dramatic, such as a major volcanic eruption, could cause enough cooling to miss setting a new record.
    Nothing can possibly go wrong now.
    --
    Recycle PCs and build a wireless community network www.hillsborough.org.nz
  4. Volcanic eruption you say? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting
  5. I'm starting to believe. by yagu · · Score: 4, Funny

    With each damning new report and every shred if indicting evidence that indeed the earth is entering into massive warming because of human activity it scares me a little more. As an average citizen, I am trying to help by:

    • keeping my hot tub set at 101 degrees or less
    • never setting the thermostat higher than 78 in the winter, or less than 72 in the summer
    • avoiding jack rabbit accelerations in my HumVee during my 60 mile commute to and from work
    • never, never using acclerants to start fires when clearing the trees from my property
    • always making sure my tv, stereo, and five computers are turned off when I leave the house
    • being careful to stay mostly on the trails when I'm riding my off-rode motorcycle (hmmmm, same goes for the HumVee)
    • filling the bathtub only 3/4 full when taking a bath each day

    I only wish others would wake up and smell the coffee and be diligent too.

    1. Re:I'm starting to believe. by bcat24 · · Score: 5, Funny
      I only wish others would wake up and smell the coffee and be diligent too.

      Nooooo! Making coffee only worsens global warming!
    2. Re:I'm starting to believe. by Rorschach1 · · Score: 2, Funny

      Heck yeah, I've got a 20-amp coffee maker that starts brewing a batch every morning at 4:00 whether I'm home or not! How's that for diligence?

    3. Re:I'm starting to believe. by Seumas · · Score: 5, Insightful

      As an average citizen, I don't even care. I'll be dead before it ever impacts me. That's not a very nice thing to say - I know - but it's practical.

      How many hundreds of people will have to nit-pick their entire lives over every purchase they make, every item they reuse, every thing they throw away, every little thing they consume, washing out tin cans to reuse them for... whatever... -- just to compensate for one illegally dumped barrel or government legitimized "waste disposal"?

      Anyway, I figure I've already done my part. I don't drive or own a car and I don't intend to have any kids.

      Frankly, I'm not sold on "man is killing the planet and causing it to heat up!". I'm open to it, but not sold on it. Nevertheless, it doesn't hurt for people, businesses and governments to take precautions anyway. Just because we may not be directly responsible for any global warming or cooling wouldn't mean that we shouldn't try to keep our planet clean and habitable for all on it anyway.

      If this trend continues though, I'll just start wearing whatever the appropriate colored ribbon is that shows I care about the environment. Look at all the people with aids that red ribbons have helped. It's almost like fricking prayer beads! Ooh!

    4. Re:I'm starting to believe. by Seumas · · Score: 3, Insightful

      And exactly how do we know that? How many ice ages has "recorded history" gone through? None, I'm pretty sure. Didn't we just discover fire before the last ice-age? We don't even have weather statistics for the entire past century - but we somehow know for sure that global warming is real, is entirely caused by humans and is going to kill us all?

      There's nothing wrong with playing it safe. There's certainly no reason for society not to conserve and live clean, but let's not jump to conclusions, either.

    5. Re:I'm starting to believe. by scotch · · Score: 2, Interesting
      Immigration isn't driving up housing prices. Increase demand for houses is driving up housing prices. That demand doesn't come from an influx of immigrants, it comes from an increasing trend for people to buy multiple homes (e.g. vacation homes, summer homes) and from people buying homes as investments (i.e. speculation). If you weren't an AC, you would know all that.

      --
      XML causes global warming.
    6. Re:I'm starting to believe. by Keebler71 · · Score: 3, Funny
      Anyway, I figure I've already done my part. I don't drive or own a car and I don't intend to have any kids.

      Translation: "I'm lazy, poor and can't get laid."

      --
      "It takes considerable knowledge just to realize the extent of your own ignorance." - Thomas Sowell
    7. Re:I'm starting to believe. by Coryoth · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And exactly how do we know that? How many ice ages has "recorded history" gone through? None, I'm pretty sure. Didn't we just discover fire before the last ice-age? We don't even have weather statistics for the entire past century - but we somehow know for sure that global warming is real, is entirely caused by humans and is going to kill us all?

      Do we have direct temperature records reaching back more than a century or so? No. We do have a variety of other sources such as tree ring data and ice cores that can provide estimates of temperature stretching back thousands and even tens of thousands of years. Collect enough of those proxy data sets from a decent variety of locations and types of sources and can calculate a reasonably accurate estimate of global temperatures stretching back about ten thousand years. There is, of course, room for interpretation on which proxy data series to include or exclude and exactly how tight the error margins on historical temperature estimation are based on the temperature calculation techniques. The result, however, is that unless you are very selective in how you interpret the data there is a notable upswing - that is to say acceleration beyond the roughly cyclical behaviour - in global temperature for the last century or so. The data we have so far is pretty clear, we are experiencing notable global warming.

      Is global warming entirely caused by humans? I think it's safe to say no. I doubt you'll find any serious scientist or non-politically motivated person saying otherwise. What we do know is that according to our understanding of physics CO2 will tend to trap heat. We also have (via those ice cores etc.) historical C02 records. It turns out that C02 levels and global temperature correlate extremely well (though not perfectly - there are clearly other factors at play). That is we have good correlation (over a roughly 400,000 years via the vostok ice core, less via other methods but with similar results), and via basic physics we have sound reasons to believe in causation. We also know that C02 levels have spiked dramatically over the last 150 years, above any previous levels from the last 400,000 years or so.

      Given all of that I think we can reasonably suggest that there is good evidence that human actions may well be having a significant effect on the global climate, and that the global climate is indeed warming. Of course we may still be mistaken, but given the evidence I think the burden of proof now falls on those who deny any signficant impact from humanity in terms of global warming.

      Jedidiah.

    8. Re:I'm starting to believe. by maxpublic · · Score: 2, Insightful

      What I don't like is people who really don't care about the environment, but are just using it as a political tool because they hate capitalism.

      They don't hate capitalism, they hate anyone else who has more money than they do. The whole 'we have to change our lifestyle NOW' shtick really means 'YOU have to change your lifestyle now, and I'll use the government to force you to make that change if I can get away with it'. Typical extremist behavior, trying to subvert government power through public opinion so they can tell some other group of people what to do, or think, or say, or how to live their lives, and punish that group if they step out of line.

      Whether they be hard-core environmentalists or religious fundamentalists, an extremist is an extremist is an extremist. All extremists have the exact same goal: to get you on your knees, kneeling before them, beaten and defeated, while they think of ways to get their malicious little rocks off by doing unto you in whatever fashion they think will upset you the most, or cause the most harm. Extremists are dangerous and evil people.

      Max

      --
      My god carries a hammer. Your god died nailed to a tree. Any questions?
  6. It's All Lies by MightyMartian · · Score: 5, Funny

    It's all lies, I tell you, all lies! It's a conspiracy by the atheistic climatological establishment to make us all buy small cars and turn off our lights. It's every American's God-given right to puke greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. But thank God that George W. Bush, His faithful servant, is making sure that these foul secularist reports are altered, so that we can continue our God-sanctioned practice of driving large vehicles, burning fossil fuels for electricity and all those other things that a proper Christian country ought to do.

    --
    The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    1. Re:It's All Lies by CaffeineAddict2001 · · Score: 4, Funny

      Ecological catastrophe is in revelations. It must be fufilled so that the lord may return, clean it up and let the meek rule the world while the know-it-all science geeks get poked by demons for their materialistic ambitions and lack of faith.
      Amen.

    2. Re:It's All Lies by MightyMartian · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Sad isn't it? Just like when I mock pseudo-scientists attacking evolution, and get rewarded for it, so I get rewarded for mocking pseudo-scientists who attack global warming.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    3. Re:It's All Lies by danharan · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Thank god we have scientists like George H. Taylor quoted in those independent articles, and the companies like Exxon that fund their work. Working for Tech Central Science Foundation, Taylor consistently helps further the agenda of pure science and the protection of American Values (TM).

      Not to mention the money Exxon generously gives to Bush.

      --
      Information: "I want to be anthropomorphized"
  7. volcano! by happyfrogcow · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Don't count out a huge volcanic eruption. With all the natural disasters so far this year, a nice big poof out of a volcano would round things out nicely.

  8. The Bastards by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    I'm sure the Republicans are behind this.

  9. Re:What? by CyricZ · · Score: 2, Informative

    The soot, ash and other debris blocks out some of the energy from the sun.

    --
    Cyric Zndovzny at your service.
  10. Re:What? by temojen · · Score: 3, Informative

    Fine ash particulates in the atmosphere reflect solar radiation (light and heat) back into space.

  11. The real question is by DoctorPhish · · Score: 4, Funny

    How long until my House in the Canadian Rockies becomes tropical beachfront?

    1. Re:The real question is by blamanj · · Score: 4, Informative

      Check out these maps to see how the coastlines would change (and have changed since the last ice age).

      No, the Canadian Rockies aren't threatened, but Florida would be about 1/3 under water if the West Antarctic ice sheet melted, and about 90% underwater if the East sheet melted as well.

    2. Re:The real question is by drsquare · · Score: 2, Funny

      No, the Canadian Rockies aren't threatened, but Florida would be about 1/3 under water if the West Antarctic ice sheet melted, and about 90% underwater if the East sheet melted as well.

      Antarctica doesn't have an east or west, because it's at a pole.

  12. let me be the first to say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    Let me be the first to say that running out of oil will cause global catastrope long before global warming will. I do believe we will see ice caps melting, seas rising, and coastal flooding in the next 100 years, but by then the world's population will be down to about 50-100 million, and we can all just move to higher ground.

  13. I don't know about you guys, but... by penguin_asylum · · Score: 5, Funny

    It's nice and cool in my new Hummer v2.

  14. Warmest 2005 on record? by toetagger1 · · Score: 4, Funny

    How many other 2005s do they have records of? If this is the only one, it will be the warmest, coldest, shortest, and longest 2005 on record forever!

    --
    who | grep -i blond | date cd ~; unzip; touch; strip; finger; mount; gasp; yes; uptime; umount; sleep
    1. Re:Warmest 2005 on record? by CyricZ · · Score: 2, Funny

      There was 2005 BC. And if the history Republicans told me about is correct, that would have been about the time that Moses was smiting homosexuals and Jesus was driving his SUV. Of course, it was a whole lot warmer then, too, because friendly industrialists had not yet filled the air with pollution to cleanse the sun's energy.

      --
      Cyric Zndovzny at your service.
  15. Land sharks in Siberia by ghoul · · Score: 4, Insightful

    On a non related note real estate valuations in Siberia and Canada are rising to new highs.

    --
    **Life is too short to be serious**
  16. Re:What? by demonbug · · Score: 2, Funny

    It's the placebo effect, I tell you! All that ash falling to the ground looks sort of like snow, so it just makes everyone feel a little colder! Take that!

  17. Re:What? by Mondoz · · Score: 2, Funny

    Volcanic eruptions are so 1980. Let's have some kind of impact with a comet or something.
    That should provide way more stuff to block out the sun. Should be really cool after that, and it wouldn't take yet another a boring volcanic eruption.

    --
    /sig
  18. Memo from God's Lawyer by ghoul · · Score: 4, Funny

    It has come to our notice that you have been using the registered trademark of our client GOD(TM) for justifying Mr George Bush's actions. This is a cease and desist order as our client has never authorized any of Mr George Bush's actions and frankly considerd such advertising offensive as Mr George Bush happens to be an employee of our rival firm.

    Thanking You
    The only lawyer in heaven

    --
    **Life is too short to be serious**
    1. Re:Memo from God's Lawyer by geekoid · · Score: 2, Funny

      I want to see your client in court!

      oh wait...

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  19. Grapes in Sweden by Henriok · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Wild grapes were groing in Sweden during the neolithic age, about 6000 years ago. We'd be lucky to even grow them in green houses now.

    --

    - Henrik

    - when the Shadows descend -
    1. Re:Grapes in Sweden by Misagon · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Wine is grown on Gotland today and there is information on that site which you can use to compare the growing conditions to other parts of Sweden.

      You should also consider that many of our cultivated species are not as resilient to weather conditions as the older variations they originate from. It is quite possible that the grape found in Sweden in the neolithic area could survive the present-day climate.
      Humans have also wiped out entire species in prehistoric times. Grapes are tasty. :)

      --
      "We mustn't be caught by surprise by our own advancing technology" -- Aldous Huxley
    2. Re:Grapes in Sweden by mzwaterski · · Score: 2, Funny
      Wine is grown on Gotland [gutevin.se] today

      Does it grow in the bottle?

  20. Re:Global Warming Is Not Bad by pclminion · · Score: 4, Insightful
    But I think even if global warming is real, it's not a big problem. We just came out of an ice age recently, I'd rather have it be more warm and cold. We'll just spend more time outdoors playing sports, enjoying the warm summer breeze, rather than freeze and shiver in the cold.

    This sounds great until you realize that more atmospheric energy implies more extreme weather. And that it will shift climate zones so that regions which were once temperate become deserts, or deserts become rainforests. A shift in the atmospheric equilibrium will lead to more water vapor in the atmosphere, and more intense rains and flooding. The sudden melting of vast quantities of land-locked ice will release pressure from the earth and potentially lead to earthquakes (did you know that the island of Great Britain is slowly tilting because of the enormous weight of ice that was lifted during the last Ice Age? And that happened gently over thousands of years.)

    You know, maybe humans are responsible for global warming, and maybe they're not. But it's happening, and perhaps it would be prudent to do what we can to not enhance the warming any further. Because you know, why fuck with the one planet we've got?

  21. Science is hard by jfengel · · Score: 5, Interesting

    No, correlation is not causation. But when you have correlation and the most accurate models imply causation, you definitely have to think hard about what you're doing. The fact that global warming was predicted by the models before the data could be taken further suggest that it's not simply alarmist readings of the data.

    Science is hard; in many fields it's impossible to prove causation completely. But when you have a theory, and the theory holds up to all the available data, you act as if the theory were true and make decisions based on that. You don't over-react as long as there are competing theories that imply otherwise, but this is one more piece of data to suggest that global warming is very real and quite possibly man-made.

    The "quite possibly" means that we shouldn't over-react; as you say, the correlation need not imply causation. But as the burden of evidence falls on the side of man-made global warming, it becomes increasingly dangerous to rely on "Yeah, but are you really, utterly, totally, completely sure?" arguments against action.

    1. Re:Science is hard by jnaujok · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Those models do not "predict" global warming. They show a trend towards warming with an increase in atmospheric CO2. However to call these models "the most accurate" is quite a stretch. I ask you to look into the quality of these models and ask simple questions, such as, "do you accurately model the largest heat sink on the planet, or are your oceans just a thin slab of water that is basically a rigidly driven model that doesn't adjust to changes realistically." Ask if they solve their fluid model for all variables, or do they just solve for two of the three (pressure and temperature, but not volume). I can go on for hours about how completely inaccurate these models are.

      But I don't have to. The models show that CO2 causes an increase because the modelers set up the model so that CO2 holds more heat in the model. Good golly, what a shock.

      On the other hand, we have data that all of the inner planets are now heating up. The Twin MER rover teams were shocked at how warm the Martian winter was this year on Mars. They never expected their rovers to make it through the winter, yet both survived without a problem. In just the 30 years since the Viking missions, the temperature of Mars has increased substantially. In fact, it's done so by very nearly the exact same percentage as the temperatures seen on Earth. Similar remote measurements of Venus have shown the same increase.

      Now, unless you want to claim that Dick Cheney is secretly driving his SUV's on Mars, that means the cause of the rise in temperature must be mainly external. And, oh look, here's a study that's found just that.

      Science is hard, Climatology is very hard. We have no hard evidence to support anthropogenic global warming theories. We have computer models. The same people on this list who would scoff at the idea of a computer predicting the weather one week in advance, will accept, without the slightest hesitation, the prediction of a computer 100 years into the future. And, no, don't give me the "it's climate, the little changes disappear into climate" because that's bullshit. It's been disproven time and time again. The "best model" in 1995 mispredicted the temperature in 2000 by 300%. That's not a minor mistake, that's not within one standard deviation, that's a wild-ass guess that was totally wrong.

      Trillions of dollars and Millions of lives will be lost if the "we should take action just in case" crowd wins. Some of the best estimates say that cutting CO2 by 50% will cost 1.5 BILLION LIVES by 2100. Are you so eager to pull the trigger?

      --
      Life, the Universe, and Everything... in my image.
    2. Re:Science is hard by nihilogos · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Now, unless you want to claim that Dick Cheney is secretly driving his SUV's on Mars, that means the cause of the rise in temperature must be mainly external. And, oh look, here's a study that's found just that. [livescience.com]

      From the article "Increased output from the Sun might be to blame for 10 to 30 percent of global warming that has been measured in the past 20 years, according to a new report."

      The "best model" in 1995 mispredicted the temperature in 2000 by 300%

      What the hell does this ridiculous statement mean? That the model predicted an average temperatue of 90C for the year, but it turned out to be 30C?

      We have no hard evidence to support anthropogenic global warming theories.

      Isn't that exactly what Bush and Cheney are saying? The same people who had hard evidence of Saddam's weapons of mass destruction. I'm not sure they'd understand hard evidence if it gave them concussion.

      --
      :wq
    3. Re:Science is hard by Red+Flayer · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I've said it before, and I'll say it again:

      Despite doubts about whether or not human activity is contributing to gloabl warming, we still have the responsibility to minimize our impact.

      As you point out, Climatology is hard. There are several known unknowns, and even more unknown unkowns. Until we can be CERTAIN that we are not taking the risk of causing dramatic climate change, particularly given the haunting specter of a threshhold after which climate changes accelerates, we need to proceed with caution.

      If there is ANY believable evidence that our actions are causing global warming, we need to take action to lessen those actions.

      Period.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    4. Re:Science is hard by Red+Flayer · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "Why? I have said it before and I will say it again -- IT DOES NOT MATTER! The Earth will fix itself. The human race is not important in the grand scheme of things as far as the Earth is concerned."

      Nice. Do you take the same approach to individual pollution (like throwing plastic bags in a stream), or to violent criminal activity? I mean, really, killing 10 people doesn't make a difference to society as a whole, it will heal itself.

      Your lack of respect for the world around us is scary. The Earth will go on, it is true. But in what form? Why should WE be the agents of change? How is it acceptable for us to cause mass extinctions, to remake the planet as we see fit? To poison other species, and ourselves, just because we think that in the long run, it doesn't matter?

      Your selfish attitude should absolutely appall anyone with a sense of personal responsibility.

      What gives you the right to deprive future generations from experiencing the Earth in its natural state, or as close to it as possible?

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    5. Re:Science is hard by Abies+Bracteata · · Score: 2, Informative
      On the other hand, we have data that all of the inner planets are now heating up. The Twin MER rover teams were shocked at how warm the Martian winter was this year on Mars. They never expected their rovers to make it through the winter, yet both survived without a problem. In just the 30 years since the Viking missions, the temperature of Mars has increased substantially. In fact, it's done so by very nearly the exact same percentage as the temperatures seen on Earth. Similar remote measurements of Venus have shown the same increase.

      Oh gawwddd, not this recycled right-wing drivel again.......

      (From http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=192#more-19 2)

      Thus inferring global warming from a 3 Martian year regional trend is unwarranted. The observed regional changes in south polar ice cover are almost certainly due to a regional climate transition, not a global phenomenon, and are demonstrably unrelated to external forcing. There is a slight irony in people rushing to claim that the glacier changes on Mars are a sure sign of global warming, while not being swayed by the much more persuasive analogous phenomena here on Earth...

    6. Re:Science is hard by Abies+Bracteata · · Score: 2, Informative

      Yes, it *is* in use in Africa and other areas. It is sprayed on the interior walls of buildings where it is most effective in killing malaria mosquitos -- without the indiscriminant broadcast use that would drive the evolution of resistant mosquitos.. Agricultural use has been banned, but that goes to the benefit of malaria control. Without the evolution of resistance resulting from widespread, indiscriminant agricultural DDT use, DDT-based malaria mosquito control remains effective. More info can be found at http://www.timlambert.org/

    7. Re:Science is hard by brulman · · Score: 3, Funny

      Do you always spell your punctuation?

      Question mark?

      --
      "the best safety of the frontier...will be secured by total annihilation of the few remaining indians" L Frank Baum 1890
    8. Re:Science is hard by syphax · · Score: 4, Informative

      Oh man, you were talking a good game until you came out with the The "best model" in 1995 mispredicted the temperature in 2000 by 300% LIE.

      How many times must this lie be debunked?

      Apparently, very many times. Key points: It wasn't 1995, it was 1988, and Hansen wasn't off by 300%, he was frickin' on the money.

      Also, remember that Arrhenius predicted anthropogenic CO2 global warming over 100 years ago. The basic premise- more atmospheric CO2 means more trapped heat- is well-understood and not controversial. The open question is the strength of the climate's negative feedback cycles.

      --
      Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
    9. Re:Science is hard by SETIGuy · · Score: 2, Informative
      The "best model" in 1995 mispredicted the temperature in 2000 by 300%.

      Let's see... The earth's average temperature surface temperature is about 288K (15C,59F). That would mean that the "best model" either predicted an average surface temperature of 96K (-177C, -287F) or it predicted a temperature of 864K (591C,1095F).

      Either that one sucky model, or you're a lying sack of sh*t.

  22. I'll help by No2Gates · · Score: 3, Funny

    My wife always complains that I stand there with the refrigerator door open looking for something to eat. Now I won't take her crap, and I'll look around the fridge longer with the damn door open and I can help global warming at the same time. Maybe people will start looking up to me as some kind of hero...

    --
    Every time you call tech support, a little kitten dies.
  23. Re:Let me be the first troll to say by LordPhantom · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Answer:
    * The intermediate period where famine and human suffering are caused by difficulty in both regions due to growing human population and temp. shinking food supply
    * Massive flooding along costal areas
    * Increased weather event strength due to warmer tropic waters
    * (and this is sure to get me modded +1 True) The poor Canadians when Texas gets the US to invade due to Texas becoming a desert... "YEE HA"

  24. Global Dimming by crabpeople · · Score: 3, Interesting


    I saw a program, i believe from the BBC on Global Dimming a few months ago. The idea being that at the same that we have been upping the greenhouse gasses we put into the atmosphere, we have also been blocking out the sun with the various soots and particulate matter that goes with it. This drove us into a net cooling period during those years, as the sunlight was reflected back into space. The researcher explained that this may be why global warming hasnt been as evident as it should have been in the past 30 years.

    Now that we burn cleaner gas, and try and be more environmentally friendly, this reflective layer of the atmosphere is getting thinner. this then compounds the global warming aeffect already in motion. perhaps that is what we are seeing today.

     

    --
    I'll just use my special getting high powers one more time...
  25. State of Idiocy by ceguy · · Score: 2, Interesting

    After having read Michael Crichton's book, State of Fear, I am thinking people who pick sides on this issue just like to argue. Crichton is against claims of global warming. Everybody's got an agenda.

    We don't even know how much we don't know about our planet. How about we try our best not to pollute the planet we live in while enjoying life?

    PS I am not endorsing the book. It has an awkward plot and idiot characters listening to a lot of "explanations" by "experts".

  26. Re:Let me be the first troll to say by the+real+manta · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Try telling that to people living in low lying coastal areas or on small islands.

  27. I say speed it up by ghoul · · Score: 2, Funny

    1 Most of the interior of America is very lightly populated as people want to live near the sea. Once sea velel rises and Phoenix and Chicago are beachfront land in the mid west will be much better utilized.

    2 Siberia and Canada are almost unused land right now as they are too cold. With enough Global warming people can start living there

    3 Large no of people lead very inefficient and lazy lives on a number of pacific islands. Once these are below the sea these people will become available for low wage work in our factories.

    4 The areas of land submerged by sea should silence the critics that we are not doing anything to replace the oil we are pumping out of the earth. All these submerged plants and animals will become oil.

    5 Africa has too many wars but the Sahara is relatiely peacefull. Heat up Africa and increase the Sahara in size and you will have an Australia like continent- first world country. Extra people refer to point 3 .

    --
    **Life is too short to be serious**
    1. Re:I say speed it up by niXcamiC · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Lazy and inefficient lives. Pray tell, how does one live a inefficient life, take longer to die than someone else?

      --
      Chances are any disscution on Slashdot will degrade into a flamewar about ID/Christianity within 14 posts.
  28. It's getting pretty hot on mars too! by TheNarrator · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Those irresposible Republicans! They're screwing things up across the entire galaxy.

    Article

    And for three Mars summers in a row, deposits of frozen carbon dioxide near Mars' south pole have shrunk from the previous year's size, suggesting a climate change in progress.


    1. Re:It's getting pretty hot on mars too! by uncadonna · · Score: 2, Informative
      --
      mt
  29. Blame the volcanoes by dada21 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The author must realize that having record low eruptions in 1998 and 2005 is the cause of the temperature hike.

    See what happened in 1816.

  30. Re:Let me be the first troll to say by clayasaurus · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Because it can trigger the next ice age, like a less dramatized version of "The Day After Tomorrow." "if enough cold, fresh water coming from the melting polar ice caps and the melting glaciers of Greenland flows into the northern Atlantic, it will shut down the Gulf Stream, which keeps Europe and northeastern North America warm. The worst-case scenario would be a full-blown return of the last ice age - in a period as short as 2 to 3 years from its onset - and the mid-case scenario would be a period like the "little ice age" of a few centuries ago that disrupted worldwide weather patterns leading to extremely harsh winters, droughts, worldwide desertification, crop failures, and wars around the world." http://www.clearlight.com/~mhieb/WVFossils/ice_age s.html http://www.21stcenturyradio.com/articles/02/101014 0.html http://www.guardian.co.uk/climatechange/story/0,12 374,1083419,00.html http://www.commondreams.org/views04/0130-11.htm Or just google it yourself.

  31. Re:Can't read.... by Jason+Earl · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It wasn't so long ago that the "consensus" of the physics community held Newtonian physics to be immutable, and before Newton the "consensus" included all sorts of things that we know today to be 100% false. Climatology is one of the most politicized of the hard sciences and there are more missing pieces to the puzzle than hard information. It's quite likely that the "odd man out" could be interpretting the little data we have correctly in the same way that Columbus was right and his many detractors were wrong. Heck, like Columbus the guy that's proven "correct" will probably eventually find out that he didn't end up where he thought he was going.

    That's the interesting bit about science. In the long run it is not a popularity contest. Just because 100 scientists believe that something is so does not make it true, especially when these scientists have political axes to grind. Both sides of the "global warming" debate have political and economic motivations. As more data is amassed and better models are made most of the theories we have today will be proven to be more incorrect than correct.

  32. Re:Let me be the first troll to say by metotalk · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Texas is a desert all ready and has been for some time now.

  33. Re:Let me be the first troll to say by Simon+Brooke · · Score: 2, Informative
    This can cause more good than harm.

    There's a ton of arible land in the world that does not have the absolutely-perfect-ideal climate.

    Many cold areas - siberia, canada - may become nice temerate regions.

    Suppose the temperate band moves 5 degrees towards the poles, what happens? Would there be the same amount of arable land, or more, or less? Hint: the world is round like a ball. The further north you go from the equator, the less the diameter is, and consequently the less surface there is per degree. Furthermore, most of the current temperate zone was under broadleaved woodland for thousands of years before the coming of agriculture, and we're still using the depth of fertile soil laid down in thousands of years of leaf-fall. But the current tundras have been tundras for thousands of years, and don't have any great depth of soil fertility. So it does matter if the temperate belt shifts five degrees towards the poles.

    --
    I'm old enough to remember when discussions on Slashdot were well informed.
  34. Re:Let me be the first troll to say by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Funny

    DEAR FRIEND,

    MY NAME IS MRS.LARISA NITSKAYA,PERSONAL SECRETARY TO MR.BORIS MIKHAIL
    KHODORKOVSKY,THE ARRESTED CHAIRMAN/CEO OF SMIRNAUG SIBERIAN LAND AND TITLE, SPB IN SIBERIA, RUSSIA.

    I HAVE THE DOCUMENTS OF A LARGE AMOUNT OF SIBERIAN LAND OWNERSHIP DEEDS WHICH WHERE HE HANDED
    OVER TO ME BEFORE HE WAS DETAINED AND NOW BEEN TRIED IN RUSSIA FOR
    FINANCING POLITICAL PARTIES(the Union of Right Forces,led by Boris
    Nemtsov, and Yabloko, a liberal/social democratic party led by Gregor
    Yavlinsky) OPPOSED TO THE GOVERNMENT OF MR.VLADMIR PUTIN,THE PRESIDENT
    THEREBY LEADING TO THE FREEZING OF HIS FINANCES AND ASSETS.AFTER
    SEARCHING THROUGH THE BOOKS OF YOUR COUNTRY'S CHAMBERS OF COMMERCE AND
    INDUSTRIES HERE IN SIBERIA, RUSSIA I AM CONTACTING YOU TO ASSIST ME TO
    RE-PROFILE THE LAND DEEDS AND EQUALLY INVEST SAME ON HIS BEHALF.

    THE TOTAL AMOUNT OF SIBERIAN LAND TO BE RE-PROFILLED IS TWO HUNDRED AND
    SIXTEEN MILLION ACRES AND YOU WILL BE TITLED 12% OF THIS MAGNIFICENT TRACT
    FOR YOUR MANAGEMENT SERVICES.

    AS SOON AS I RECEIVE YOUR ACCEPTANCE,I WILL SEND YOU THE NECESSARY
    DETAILS AND MY IDENTIFICATION.

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    qwer qowieru rqiwueiru oiquwe ro qowie ro qowierfhj cv ahsdfi

  35. The Weather Makers by tarvo · · Score: 4, Informative

    Read this book The Weather Makers by Tim Flannery, if you are genuinely interested in doing something about climate chnage.

    It is brilliant and timely call to action for everyone to reconsider their energy use as it applies to C02 emmissions.

  36. Re:Let me be the first troll to say by YrWrstNtmr · · Score: 3, Insightful
    * Massive flooding along costal areas

    Which will make some insurance companies suffer until the government bails them out - but even the rich homeowners there will simply move to the new coastal areas in central-califoria/death-valley.

    The vast majority of people in coastal areas, even in the US, are not 'rich homeowners'.

    A large percentage (most?) of the worlds population lives within a few miles of a sea.

  37. Arr... by HunterZ · · Score: 2, Funny

    It's not too late to help lower the global average temperature. Become a swashbuckling disciple of the Flying Spaghetti Monster!

    http://www.venganza.org/

    --
    Arguing about vi versus Emacs is like arguing whether it's better to make fire by rubbing sticks or banging rocks.
  38. Re:too early to call by nagora · · Score: 2, Informative
    isn't "global warming" supposed to cause extreme temperatures in BOTH directions

    Only at a local level, these figures are global.

    so how can anyone predict the weather for the next 2 1/2 months based on historical records and in face of supposedly dramatic climate changes...

    The figures are global and also average, so it is possible to calculate ahead how cold things would have to get to reduce the "total" temperature and say whether or not that is likely. If the world record for an average score at some game was, say 9.5 over a 10 game season, and after 8 games a player had scored a total of 90 points, you'd feel pretty confident in saying that a record was coming, regardless of the fact that the last two games haven't been played.

    TWW

    --
    "Encyclopedia" is to "Wikipedia" what "Library" is to "Some people at a bus stop"
  39. Whoa, hold on a second by benhocking · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Are you actually suggesting that a web-site called "friendsofscience.org" wouldn't actually be friendly to science? Next thing you're going to tell me is that the Clear Skies Initiative allows for increases in pollution...

    --
    Ben Hocking
    Need a professional organizer?
  40. Recent demonstration of global warming by ManufacturedMirth · · Score: 4, Informative

    Myth 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate.
    Fact: Accurate satellite, balloon and mountain top observations made over the last three decades have not shown any significant change in the long term rate of increase in global temperatures.


    No, that's not true at all. All terrestrial measurements have shown a steady increase - the satellite measurements were the exceptions, and showed a much slower increase in temperature.

    Until last year, fossil fuel advocates pointed to the satellite measurements as refutation of the warming trend. Then, a bunch of clever guys realised that the problem was that the satellite measurements were taking an average of a rapidly heating troposphere (where we live) and a cooler upper section of the atmosphere.

    There's a great discussion of this in the rather frightening book The Weather Makers by Australian scientist Tim Flannery, which is due for release in the US about now.

    1. Re:Recent demonstration of global warming by Erioll · · Score: 2, Interesting

      How about you re-insert the section of the quote that you edited that talked about the heat islands of populated areas before posting misleading information.

  41. What I see by metotalk · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Living a city where there are two major cities sitting vary close to each other and a major airport between them. (Dallas - Ft. Worth) You start to see patterns that make you think a bit more about really is causing global warming. What you can all ways see temperature wise in the north Texas area is that it is most of the time 5 to 10 degrees F cooler West of the Dallas - Ft. Worth area. Then you moving east in to Ft. Worth the temp starts going up and the more east that you go the higher the temp gets. Done and told Dallas (being east of Ft. Worth and the DFW airport is all ways 2 to 3 degrees hotter then Ft. Worth. So, what is making Dallas hotter then Ft. Worth? The fact that the normal jet stream of air here moves mostly west to east. So when the Sun shines on the concrete or asphalt on the roads all day long and makes the ground that much hotter and then the wind blows the air over this increased temperatures of the roads and airport runways it just keeps building until it gets back over an area where there are less roadways to start cooling the air. Every one keeps looking at pollution as being the main reason for global warming. It is a factor that should not be over looked but no one is looking at the fact that cities are growing all over the world so this means that roadways are being added to and widened all the time. Thus adding to the surface area of a really big heater. Having lived out in a country environment I know that once the sun goes down it starts to cool off, but the city is not the same. It can take a city a hour or two to start to see any real drop in temperatures.

  42. Mars is much less regular than Earth by vlad_petric · · Score: 2, Insightful
    It doesn't have a large satelite (relatively speaking) to regulate its movement, and as a consequence it has much more variation from (its) year to year. Furthermore, it's also farther from the Sun, and the variation in distance caused by the eliptical movement also affects the amount of light it's getting (not just the inclination, as is the case for Earth).

    OT: As for those irresponsible Republicans - compare Argentina's deficit before their currency crash with USA's current deficit.

    --

    The Raven

  43. Re:Let me be the first troll to say by jcochran · · Score: 4, Informative

    Record highs?

    Hmm. I don't think so.

    After all, they're still finding Viking farms under the ice in Greenland.
    I suspect that we have people looking at short term changes and ignoring the geological evidence about cyclic changes in world temperatures.

    As another data point look at: http://www.space.com/scienceastronomy/solarsystem/ mars_snow_011206-1.html

    Somehow, I don't think what man is doing on Earth has much of an effect on Mars.

  44. Some Info on William O'Keefe... by mjbkinx · · Score: 3, Informative
    ...but first, a link to this article.

    The promised information about him is here:

    President, George C. Marshall Institute.

    Adjunct Scholar, Competitive Enterprise Institute. Member, CEI Board of Directors. President and Founder, Solutions Consulting. President Emeritus, Global Climate Coalition. President, Solutions Consulting, Inc. Former Senior Vice President, Jellinek, Schwartz and Conolly, Inc. Chief Administrative Officer, Center for Naval Analyses.

    According to federal lobbying records, O'Keef e was a paid lobbyist for ExxonMobil, 2001, 2002 and 2003 on the issues of environment and climate change, with contacts with the White House and the Office of Management and Budget. He writes frequently about climate change in his presidentail role at the George C. Marshall Institute.

    O'Keefe has a long history of involvement with the fossil fuel industry. O'Keefe also served as Executive Vice President and CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, a position he held until 2000.

    ...and on some of the organisations he works for:

    Competitive Enterprise Institute has received $1,645,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.
    George C. Marshall Institute has received $515,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.
    American Petroleum Institute
    Currently "deactivated", the Global Climate Coalition was "A coalition of companies and trade associations seeking to present the views of industry in the global warming debate."

  45. comment about part of article by Robocoastie · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I see this a lot in articles about this issue and I think it needs addressed: "A vocal minority of scientists say the warming climate is the result of a natural cycle." Me: no duh! No one's saying it's NOT part of a natural cycle. What is alarming though is that the current trend has occurred faster than other periods in history which means an investigation was needed to determine just why that is. All the evidence has led to the affect of the industrial revolution. That's the one thing differing from all other "natural cycle" trends of the past. What can be done about it? Nothing. Short of an asteroid hitting us and turning our clocks back 200+ years I don't see anything meaningful being done to change anything. As the expression goes "the genie can't be put back in the bottle." On top of this, global population has forced the governments to lock down just where we can live tighter than a popcorn fart so you have a hard time escapeing the toxic asthma bothering gasses and pollution of the city.

  46. Re:Let me be the first troll to say by ccp · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Suppose the temperate band moves 5 degrees towards the poles, what happens? Would there be the same amount of arable land, or more, or less?

    Nobody, and I mean NOBODY has the slightest idea.
    And even worse, nobody will ever have.
    You see, climate is the poster child for dynamic complex systems, and is inherently unpredictable beyond a few days.
    Climate is obviously affected by global mean temperature, but is not the same thing.
    A lot of people here seems to think that a warmer Earth will be just like now, but you know, warmer.
    In reality, even a small change of mean temperature is going to cause massive disruptions in climate patterns, but we have no way to predict them.

    Cheers,

    Carlos Cesar

  47. Re:Can't read.... by ZombieRoboNinja · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Yeah, becaause it was those damn Newtonian special interest groups holding back Einsteinian physics.

    So tell me again, what is the "political motivation" of those climatologists who believe in global warming? They want to believe we're poisoning our atmosphere because... they hate convenience? Seems to me the only side with something to gain is the anti-warming crowd.

  48. Devil's Advocatre/Cynic...take your pick by Chocolate+Teapot · · Score: 2, Insightful
    First of all, let me state that I am no expert in this, so please don't take me too seriously. A while ago I was in the Natural History Museum in London, and a particular display caught my attention. It basically represented the history of the Earth (as far as scientists think they know) since, well, the beginning. Beneath it was a chart showing average global temperatures through the ages. I tried to find something similar on the web, and the best I could come up with in a few minutes was this (from this site). Like I said, I'm no expert, but one thing that struck me, at least from the museum display, is that we are not even out of the last Ice Age yet. Furthermore, compared with previous ice ages, the Earth seems to be warming at a slower rate than quite a few occasions in it's history.

    I'm not suggesting that the crap we pour into the atmosphere has no effect on our climate, but rather that, as the article sort of states, temperatures are only approaching record levels since the advent of systematic temperature records. If we look back over several major climatic cycles in the Earth's history however, what we are experiencing is actually nothing special.

    That said, I'm off to buy some factor 50 sunblock.

    --
    Modest doubt is called the beacon of the wise. - William Shakespeare
  49. Re:Let me be the first troll to say by Lars+T. · · Score: 3, Informative
    So we are looking at 0.42mm a year, due to glacial melt. To reach the claimed 80 Meters of sea level rise that is bandied about for all the claims of coastal flooding it would take 190,000 years to reach that level, since your worried about warming to increase, let's halve that to 95,000 years.

    Jebus Griste, did you even read the page you just linked to?

    Over the past 100 years, sea level has risen by 1.0 to 2.5 millimeters per year; thus the contribution from melting small glaciers would be approximately 20 to 30 percent of the total. Climate models based on the current rate of increase in greenhouse gases, however, indicate that sea level will rise at a rate of about two to five times the current rate over the next 100 years from the combined effect of ocean thermal expansion and increased glacier melt
    --

    Lars T.

    To the guy who modded me down from perfect to terrible Karma - Apple haters still suck

  50. Re:Let me be the first troll to say by narcolepticjim · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I think the people looking at long-term trends, via ice core samples, would tell you that when the planet has a period of high atmospheric CO2 concentrations, bad things follow. We are in a period with high atmospheric CO2 levels.

  51. Re:Idiots by Red+Flayer · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Well, the intelligent response then is to minimize activity that could potentially be causing global warming until we better understand the impact and the implications. Look before we leap. No?

    --
    "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
  52. Re:Can't read.... by halofan_sd · · Score: 2, Informative

    So tell me again, what is the "political motivation" of those climatologists who believe in global warming?

    - - - - -

    How about the billions of dollars in "global warming" research grant?

    http://www.cato.org/dailys/11-07-04.html

  53. What an utter load of crap by FhnuZoag · · Score: 3, Insightful

    What an utter load of lies and deception. These issues are known about, and have been carefully tackled many, many times. To state these goes beyond mere ignorance, to deliberate attempts to mislead the public.

    Myth 1: Global temperatures are rising at a rapid, unprecedented rate.

    That's because the satellites were taking an average of several layers, the weather balloons weren't accounting for improvements in radiation shielding technology and so on. Adjusted, they now fully match the results we have.

    Myth 3: Human produced carbon dioxide has increased over the last 100 years, adding to the Greenhouse effect, thus warming the earth.

    Not according to the actual data. The proportional increase in carbon dioxide is huge, by all available data. And yes, ALL of that increase is due to human activity, because for example measurements of carbon dioxide concentration in the sea shows that the sea is actively absorbing CO2. http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=87

    Myth 4: CO2 is the most common greenhouse gas.

    This is a strawman. Hell, the most common greenhouse gas is probably Nitrogen. Anything has a greenhouse effect. The issue is whether the gas is a cause of climate change or not. Water, despite it's significance, isn't. Changes in water concentration in the atmosphere is rapidly evened out - we call it rain. But it never rains carbon dioxide. The action of water is as a positive multiplier for global warming - warming increases the level of equilibrium of water in the atmosphere, which makes CO2 a more significant effect, not less.

    Don't listen to these 'friends of science'. They are lying to you.

  54. Re:Consequences are hard by NotoriousQ · · Score: 2, Insightful

    There are alternatives to fossil fuels, there is headway to be made in fuel efficiency, there are ways to lessen the envirnmental footprint of humankind. Many of these things, if done properly, will not negatively affect quality of life. So why don't we?

    Please tell me one energy source that does not cause any issues when implemented on a scale needed to solve humankind's energy needs? The only one that is close may be fusion...but it is not usable yet. I agree, we should investigate other thing...but rushing headlong into alternatives could also cause problems.

    And in my view, it is better to suspend actions of questionable results than it is to continue them without knowing.
    Are you advocating stopping all energy production? (well...more specifically concentration)

    --
    badness 10000
  55. Re:Can't read.... by NeutronCowboy · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Little correction - Newton was not 100% wrong. In fact, it is amazing exactly how right he was when applied to the stuff he dealt with - apples, carts, stuff you can see and touch. What Einstein did was to offer an extension to Newton's theories that would expand them to the atomic level. What this means is that you want to listen to what the scientists, and then see if it makes sense. You might not be able to come up with the theory of everything, but you might at least find out who the crackpots are. Science is a tool - use it. Saying that everything will change anyway, and that you can ignore everything that a scientists says means you're throwing science away as a tool.

    --
    Those who can, do. Those who can't, sue.
  56. The Ostriches. by supabeast! · · Score: 2, Funny

    Well, at this rate in another ten years Republicans will acknowledge global warming. Of course, they'll just write it off as another sign that the rapture is imminent, and push us all to accept intelligent design before it's too late.

  57. Re:Can't read.... by ungerware · · Score: 2, Informative

    Columbus? What was he "correct" about? The earth being round? Everyone knew that then. The myth that there was any common perception in 1492 that the earth was flat was created by Washington Irving in his biography of Columbus, written centuries later. (source: James Leowen, "Everything You've Been Taught is Wrong" -- great book, BTW)

    --

    -----
    Kvetch is Yiddish for "throw an exception" --Dr. Ron Cytron
  58. Motivations? by ppp · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Both sides of the "global warming" debate have political and economic motivations.

    I understand the economic motivations of scientists working for oil companies and related industries. What are the economic motivations of scientists who think global warming is at least a partial result of human activity? (Other than, of course, the economic benefits of human survival.)

  59. Critical Analysis by yup2000 · · Score: 2, Informative

    The graph in the times shows 145 years of data, and the average it uses is a 30 year average from 1961 - 1990. Never mind that they can't count. Why doesn't the graph use a 145 year average? The warmest years on the graph are 1990 to present. It is interesting that according to the graph, 1960 - 1980 recorded more cool years than warm!

    again, reading the graph, from 1880 - 1910, there was a warming period that was even more significant than the one currently observed. Why?

    From 1910 - 1940, there was a very significant decrease in temperateure. Why?

    So, from 1880 - 1910 I'm sure everyone was afraid of the next heat wave
    and from 1910 - 1940, there was an ice age headed our way.

    Interesting that this graph shows a classic bell shaped curve that we all learned to love in our college statistics classes. It is safe to predict regular variations that follow the same pattern. Therefore, I predict in 20 - 50 years (a very short time span in the grand scheme of things), that a cool down will occur.

  60. Wow! by Quiet_Desperation · · Score: 2, Insightful
    0.04, huh? What's the data uncertainty? What's the sigma of the data noise?

    And the global mean from 1950 to 1990? Why those years? Did they happen to give the result the author wanted?

    They are playing a numbers racket with you, people. As geeks you should see right through this stufff. For shame.

  61. Re:Let me be the first troll to say by SidV · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Yeah those are based on fuzzy logic and models that predict 2-5 degrees C warming for the 20th century that turned out to be .6 Degrees C. So we can take those with a grain of salt.

    But even factoring in worst case fronm your point, going by your quote, and realizing Proto multiplied times the wrong number we get 20 Centimeters. or 7.1 inches in the next 100 years. RUN PEOPLE RUN THE SEA IS GOING TO RISE 7 INCHES IN A HUNDRED YEARS THERE IS NO WAY WE CAN OUTRUN THAT!!!!!

    Divided by a factor of five (which is particularly alarmist), that means which we'll reach max melt of all arctic areas (absurd) we have increased that melt to the point where total meltdown is 38,000 years away.

    But that is an unrealistic scenario based upon models that cannot predict present temperatures, and are often wrong by a factor of 4 or 5.

    Completely ignoring any changes in the future 38 millenia, the negative logarithmic progression of greenhouse warming*, and the fact that winter isn't going to stop happening anytime soon.

    Regardless of all that of BS, you are completely ignoring the fact that even worse case scenario we aren't talking about drastic sea level rises. Do you agree that even based on your quote we are still looking at fairly moderate sea level changes that are nothing to worry about. Or are you simply trying to distract from my point because even in your scenario the sea level rise is minor (worst case(bordering on the absurd) scenario) so you'd rather play a game of distracting from the fundamental point.

    In fact based upon those numbers and all the other scaremongering they don't even look at a linear progression, but a positive logarithmic, which goes completely against everything we know about greenhouse warming.

  62. Please... by jeriqo · · Score: 2, Insightful

    We're talking about a BIG problem, and all I can see is +5 funny posts.
    Thank you America.

    --
    Alexis 'jeriqo' BRET
  63. Since you asked... by fyngyrz · · Score: 3, Insightful
    A one degree warming will result in various lowland areas being flooded and millions of people be displaced.

    Shouldn't we be doing something to stop the huge problems that will result

    Well, consider. This isn't a really bad Hollywood movie like "The Day After Tomorrow", it is reality, and there is natural law to mediate between nature and your nightmares. The fact is, if the flooding you speak of occurs, it won't happen such that a bunch of lowland dwellers go to sleep Tuesday night, dry, and wake up Wednesday morning floating on their mattresses. We will see it coming, people and businesses can migrate (and they will... believe me, they will.)

    Again, if the climate is changing along these lines, you can be certain that just as Florida's coral outcrop goes under and provides zillions of new acres of game fish habitat, other parts of the country will change also. Areas that are too cold for raising oranges, for instance, will warm up and become useful in that way. Areas like mine, that see -40 degree temperatures some winters will see (perhaps) -35 degrees instead, and we won't have to plug in our cars as many evenings, saving some energy. Death Valley will probably still suck every day of the year.

    And so on. The one thing you can be certain of is that things will change, and as they change, humans will adapt.

    I see no reason for anyone to panic, or even seriously worry, at this point. We should pay attention, and we are. There is no indication we are facing any big changes in the near future, nor any sudden ones in any future as far as global warming goes. Nature will supply us with the facts no matter what they are. In the meantime, the sky isn't falling, and that's a fact. The sky might move a little, though we cannot be certain of this, and if it does, it'll do so slowly and gently and we will have plenty of time to rearrange ourselves as required, both as a civilization and as individuals.

    And you know what else? If and as change comes, we'll no doubt turn it to our advantage. More heat, more energy, more liquid water, more opportunity. It's what we do. The ones of us who aren't running in circles, screaming hysterically about global warming, that is.

    --
    I've fallen off your lawn, and I can't get up.
    1. Re:Since you asked... by Nuffsaid · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Well, I don't panic. But I live in Venice (Venezia, Italy, not California). I'm sure I personally can survive global warming and move to some other place, but it would be very very very sad to see such a unique city die. And it doesn't take many more centimeters of high tide to make it happen.

      --
      Nuffsaid
      ________

      Don't know about his cat, but Schroedinger is definitely dead.
    2. Re:Since you asked... by AGMW · · Score: 4, Insightful
      ... it won't happen such that a bunch of lowland dwellers go to sleep Tuesday night, dry, and wake up Wednesday morning floating on their mattresses. We will see it coming, people and businesses can migrate (and they will... believe me, they will.)

      *cough-katrina-cough*

      --
      Eclectic beats from Leeds, UK
      handmadehands.co.uk
    3. Re:Since you asked... by Frit+Mock · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "The fact is, if the flooding you speak of occurs, it won't happen such that a bunch of lowland dwellers go to sleep Tuesday night, dry, and wake up Wednesday morning floating on their mattresses."

      What makes you believe exactly that?

      I rather believe the opposite!

      Right, the ocean will raise slowly, but that says nothing about how fast or slow portions of land will sink in water.

      For example the vast majority of the Netherlands are below sealevel. Realy with "Dijks" 10 meters high all along the coast, their is nothing to fear if sealevel raises 0,5 or a meter or even 2 ... well, at least until something bad like a storm happens ...

      Oh, haven't you in the US had a similar scenario ... just recently?

      You're right, the ocean will raise slowly and the vast mojority of land won't sink the next day ... and if the sea comes close to peoples homes, they will start to build "Dijks" to keep their feet dry ... anywhere, neccessary. ... They will be protected, even if the ocean continues to raise ... well, at least until something bad like a storm happens ...

      "We will see it coming, people and businesses can migrate (and they will... believe me, they will.)"

      Do you realy believe people and buisiness will migrate? Come on, blind or braindead are you?

      Recently in the US a whole city was sunken in the ocean ... as a matter of fact, this is what realy had happened! ... Just take a look, these people even want to go back and rebuild everything ...