Slashdot Mirror
How Bad Will The 360 Shortage Be?
shrouded writes "Rumors have been growing the last few days about hardware shortages for the launch of Microsoft's new video game console this month. No one is speaking about it officially, but off behind-the-scenes whispering makes it sound like initial supplies won't even cover people who have pre-paid for their machines. eToychest spent the weekend asking retailers what they anticipate for the Nov. 22 release date, and its not pretty."
Maybe Microsoft should just rename it the Cabbage Patch 360, rake in their overinflated profits and be done with it. This stinks of marketing shennanigans; either Microsoft has really blown it on their ability to deliver in anticipation of trumping others' rollouts (disingenuous), or they're pulling the Cabbage Patch stunt to go for even more hype and mania around this product (also disingenuous).
Even if there is a shortage, I predict it will be extremely short lived.
Also, this is all artificial. Slashdot is proof of it - there is an advertisement every day on this supposed shortage - most of us even believe it now because its been drilled into our heads for so long.
Does it really matter if there's a shortage of 360s this holiday season. The current generation will still have games released for it, right?
So what if little Johnny doesn't get a 360 under the tree this year. If getting your child a 360 for Christmas is that important and you can't find one, just set the money aside and pick one up when more are made.
It's not as though these things will be in short supply forever.
e2 | LJ
Back in the early 80's, my father bought an Alpha Micro for $10,000. It was a silly purchase in retrospect, but he loved the idea of owning a real computer and hoped to put it to work in his business. He eventually did, though it took quite awhile. I learned programming and the rest is history.
What does this have to do with XBoxes? The crazy people who go out and buy one right away subsidize the cost for people who wait a few months and get it when there are actual deals to be had.
I believe only two games have gone gold, which means a max of 2 games will be available at launch as of now...
Who cares about buying the system on launch day if you can't play the game you wanted yet?
Are you really considering buying a product from a company that plans a shortage to build buzz? Granted they are not the first company to do it, but given the fact that you know in advance that you are being played, you are just going to go with it? Until the "shortage" is over you can pretty much bet you are going to pay top dollar, buy it after the price goes down and spend the difference on group therapy for game addicts ;). On second thought forget I said anything, it's your money, enjoy.
Insert pithy comment here.
Given the games likely to be available at release, I don't see how the shortage is a bad thing. What am I going to miss out on?
The past supply estimate said
Best Buy: 20 to 60 Xbox 360s with a larger shipment coming "later that week."
So what's up with that? Are they going to make enough Xbox 360s to give all of the Best Buy stores more in less than 7 days after they get the first batch? That seems pretty impressive...at least to me.
My Xbox Live Gamer Card
Because my last post was short.
this reminds me of the time cartman got that amusement park, and then wouldn't let anyone come in, so of course everyone was DIEING to get in, simply because they couldn't. The park itself was nothing special, but it was the simple fact that they were not allowed....
I'm not sure what bothers me more, the fact that this scheme is OBVIOUS and a bunch of bull-poop, or the fact that it's working....
i don't care
It's amusing this article came up today
EB called me 3 weeks ago, told me I was in the first shipment. All good.
Today, get a call stating that I am number 25 of the first shipment and they're only recieving 18 units. They won't guarantee me a 360 before christmas either. (To their credit they said it was very likely, but they hesitated to use the word guarantee.)
Crappy. Good work MS. Bah Humbug.
Microsoft probably wants there to be a big buzz about shortages, to get more people to pony up and purchase the first day.... the rumor thus becomes sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy. It would not shock me AT ALL if the source for this one is Microsoft itself. They want it to be special, scarce, and hard to find.
The way to combat the problem, as others here are mentioning, is just to ignore the console completely. There aren't going to be very many good games for it at first ANYWAY. The games aren't going anywhere. You'll still be able to play them if you wait until the consoles are easy to get. They're just graphical updates of existing games. They'll look fantabulous, but they're not going to play differently. It's just the same old shit with a facelift.
There's NO rush on this... the games will be just as much fun in February as they would be in two weeks, and they might be a little cheaper.
Ebay
The thought crossed my mind about getting pre-orders under the names a bunch of friends with several EB, Gamestop, Walmarts to try to buy as many Xbox360 and then sell them on ebay at exploitive prices.
However, I never put that much effort in life towards money because of moral implactions, being lazy, and the fact I don't like to use Ebay.
Also my reasoning that this could be all hype and I could end up with a bank breaking debt worth of overpriced hardware that no one wants.
"I am the king of the Romans, and am superior to rules of grammar!"
-Sigismund, Holy Roman Emperor (1368-1437)
MS really does have some genious marketers.
- Keep supply low, restricting sales to fanboys on initial launch
- Fanboys talk it up. m@N! my 360 is s0 1337! j00 g0tta g3t 1!
- Profit.
Genius. Bravo, Microsoft.I played it at Wal-Mart for as long as I could bear it - 25 minutes, 3 games. How on earth are people lining up to pay USD $350+ for little more than an original xbox? I mean seriously... I swear I was playing at less than 1024x768 resolution.. oh wait. I WAS!
There is no discernable difference between the xbox 1, and the xbox 1.5, besides the resolution, and if you don't have the TV for it, what's the point? Think HD is _that_ exciting? fine. You shell out the bucks for the Suxty AND the 50-inch+ TV...
I'll spend the $400 on my computer long before the 360.
--Vin
It's not the fall that kills you, it's the sudden stop at the end.
The units will sell out on release day, and probably there's been an artificial restriction on stock to ensure that.
But a few days later they'll be back. No-one could seriously believe that Microsoft will miss the holiday buyers, can they?
There will be no shortage, but there will be a few days wait for most buyers.
I'm going to sit this out for the first year, and then maybe buy one, if I like the look of Halo-3. I only bought the X-box for Halo-2, but then I upgraded to a PowerMac G4/450 back in 1999 because I thought Halo for the Mac was just around the corner. There were demos! At Macworld! Yes... I'm a long-suffering Bungie fan...
If you check on the articles past year, you will notice every single article on the PSP predicted a shortage. Sony predicted a shortage, IGN, slashdot , etc. They even pulled "anti -shortage" schemes one psp per customer ,no change of PSP for dead pixels, etc.
Does anyone remember having any problem to find a PSP on xmas?
They do that based on PRE-SELLS only, and yes I bet there will be a "shortage" on pre-sells, since fans buy their stuff on those, but Alas regular people dont. Stores have bundles of those in the ware houses, and it turns out regular people wont buy them. So if you want one, dont "pre buy" it , just walk to any store and buy it, Im sure there will be plenty to go by.
Go ahead MOD my day!
More opinions here
I don't agree. From recent history in the North American market:
PS2 launched in short supply very close to the holiday season. Demand went up only slightly in time for the actual holidays. Many people didn't care anyways, since the whole first year of the PS2's existence was plagued with a horrible launch lineup of games. It is assumed that the short supply was an orchestrated move on Sony's part, but nowhere near the level of planning that MS is seen as architecting for the 360 launch.
GBA launched in good supply, in June. Supply ran as high as demand, which was also very high. Great planning on Nintendo's part. Everyone wanted them, everyone was able to get them, and people still wanted them and were able to get them through the holiday season. When the product is easy to manufacture and is of a high enough quality, no shenanigans are needed.
GameCube also launched close to the holidays. Supply ran as high as demand, which was much stronger in North America than it was in Japan. Few stores sold out (I only noticed that several Targets in the area had no supply come the holidays, all other stores were fine).
Xbox launched around the same time as the GameCube. Supply met demand, just as with GameCube. Nobody sold out, but supply ran very short with some Targets in the area.
GBA SP launched strong in late summer, supply met demand, and again, people kept buying them into the holidays.
Nintendo DS launched into the holidays and barely met supply, but it was adequate for the most part. There was a one-week period where few stores had stock, but in reality everyone that wanted one for the holidays got one.
PSP launched in early spring. Supply was abundant at many stores, nonexistent at some. EB, GameStop and some CE stores like Best Buy and Circuit City displayed prominent "Sold Out" signs in their stores at the same time that Target and Wal-Mart were neck-high in stock. Speculation at the time was that Sony had allocated few units to only these specialty and electronics stores in order to generate hype, while sending plenty of stock to the general goods stores to generate actual sales.
GameBoy Micro launched in fall. Once again, supply met demand. And in what may be a surprise to some pundits out there, demand and interest in the GBM were very high at launch. Sales of GBA software saw a surge in all regions for the month that the GBM launched, and sales of the unit itself have been strong. GBM has yet to see its first holiday season.
Xbox 360 will launch in two weeks. There are already reports from representatives at several retailers that detail Microsoft's plans to send out very limited supplies. These retailers run the range from specialty stores, to CE stores, to general goods stores, to online retailers. Speculation is that (A) the shortage is truly due to availability and real, but is necessary to meet MS's tremendous goal of a wolrdwide simultaneous launch, or (B) the shortage is artificial and planned, or (C) there will be no shortage, but Microsoft is astroturfing with a leaked rumor about short supply to increase pre-orders for bundled systems.
From this, I'd be comfortable drawing several conclusions.
1. Nintendo systems don't sell out at launch, because Nintendo wants everyone who wants their systems to be able to trade their MONEY for one. Nintendo doesn't play the long-hype/short-supply game, probably because the gains are so short-term and ultimately inconsequential. If that's what you meant by Nintendo being the master of this game, you're right. But somehow I don't think that's what you meant.
2. Sony tries to make sure that their systems sell out at launch. It worked with the PS2 but not with the PSP. They merely seem to be the ones with the most successful example (PS2). I don't think you could call them masters, looking at the way the PSP launch turned out despite their plans. (If the PSP had been released by any other company, it would have been seen as a fairly good launch - but s
Let me preface this by saying I'm not a console gamer. I had PONG and an atari 2600 when they came out. Since, I have found the console gaming experience lacking. Ok, Halo and Halo2 are badass, but hardly worth the cost of the Xbox and assorted other accessories... Maybe I outgrew them...
I have been reading and hearing about the 360 for a while. The hardware seems impressive. I can see a lot of potential for impressive physics, good graphics, and complex models. By and large, it seems the magic spell that Microsoft's PR department is casting is working. Gamers are abuzz with speculation and news of the 360.
There will be no shortage.
I worked at Best Buy when the PS2 was released, and I remember the same rumors of ps2 shortages. People were standing in line the night before. Families split up and stood in lines at different retailers around town. There was genuine concern that demand would not be met. My store had 80 to give out for opening day. Management told the prods (sales reps, product specialists.. whatever) that they were not to sell a ps2 without at *least* an extra controller, and a PRP (Product Replacement Plan). Best Buy is incredibly numbers oriented. Its not enough to sell a box, you have to sell a box "with cheese" i.e. with the higher profit items cables, controllers, PRP. Why else would a Prod recommend a "Monster Cable" surge supressor to ward off dead pixels? BTW Monster Cable costs about 25% of retail price. But I digress.....
My point is that the shortage was artificial... Every store got an allotment of PS2s (80), and the next truck had more (for us, 130). People were so relieved that they got a PS2 opening day, that they coughed up the dough for all of the extra crap that they were told they *needed*.
Maybe I am wrong. Time will tell.
Considering that IBM only recently announced the beginning of production of the chips for the 360 maybe the shortage is more due to the chip supply than it is artificial.
Article in question.
How many chips can they make in a month? 10000, 100000?
Perhaps MS is about to learn why Apple switched from IBM.
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