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Failing Ocean Current Raises Fears of Mini Ice Age

Designadrug writes "This article from Newscientist paints a picture of a major climate control mechanism teetering on the brink: "The ocean current that gives western Europe its relatively balmy climate is stuttering, raising fears that it might fail entirely and plunge the continent into a mini ice age. The dramatic finding comes from a study of ocean circulation in the North Atlantic, which found a 30% reduction in the warm currents that carry water north from the Gulf Stream.""

59 of 568 comments (clear)

  1. Global Warming! by phoenix.bam! · · Score: 4, Funny

    But the earth isn't supposed to regulate itself! We're making it hotter! OH NOES!!!1 Seriously, who wouldn't expect something like this to happen. The temperature differential that drives that current has shrunk slightly and therefore as lost some momentum. Then Europe gets cold for a while, things even out, and everyone is happy. Except 50 cent. because his game is stupid.

    1. Re:Global Warming! by Coryoth · · Score: 5, Informative

      The temperature differential that drives that current has shrunk slightly and therefore as lost some momentum. Then Europe gets cold for a while, things even out, and everyone is happy.

      Not really. Europe, and North America get colder yes (and to be honest I'm not all that happy about that, living in Canada at the moment), but the rest of the trapped heat from global warming doesn't magically vanish, it simply gets pushed elsewhere - so think more more heat (and droughts) for Africa, more energy in the Carribean to help power hurricanes etc.

      This is why the term "global climate change" is preferred these days. While there is "global warming" in that there is more energy trapped and retained in the system, that doesn't mean it's going to be evenly distributed as warming, it just means more energy in the system which can result in more dramatic swings and changes in climate.

      Jedidiah.

    2. Re:Global Warming! by ndogg · · Score: 5, Informative

      Global warming is a bit of a misleading name. Yes, the average temperature of the planet will go up, but that does not mean all places on the planet will increase in temperature. Before this, many scientists speculated that global warming would result in far colder, harsher winters for the United Kingdom.

      The one thing about global warming that people must understand is that it will throw all the climate regions into chaos, and change them, which will change the local fauna and flora.

      --
      // file: mice.h
      #include "frickin_lasers.h"
    3. Re:Global Warming! by Shihar · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I am curious if there is a technological solution to the problem. Granted, mucking around in big natural system is always more then a little risky, but if there is a serious problem, I couldn't think of a better place for it then the North Atlantic. Surrounding the North Atlantic are the richest and most technologically advanced nations in the world. If anyone can scrape up some money for some grand technological solution, I imagine the US and EU are the two entities to do it.

      Certainly it would be nice to simply halt climate change by altering the amount of green house gases being released, but there is no guarantee that we can change fast enough to have any noticeable effect. There also isn't any guarantee that we haven't already slipped over some equilibrium point and are accelerating to a new one regardless of green house gas levels.

      Personally, I am curious why we don't look for more grand scale technological solutions to environmental problems. We have certainly proven that we can very effectively destroy the ozone with just a little CFCs. We know how to increase global warming. Why in the hell hasn't anyone found a chemical that promotes ozone expansion or reduces global warming?

    4. Re:Global Warming! by Oarsman · · Score: 5, Funny

      Of course the earth is self-regulating. See:

      1. Humans cause global warming.
      2. Earth's ice caps melt
      3. Oceans rise & current flow stops.
      4. World cools.
      5. Ice caps grow.
      6. Ice caps kick human's ass
      7. No more humans = no more global warming. Problem solved.
      8. Ice caps go back to normal.

      See? Makes sense to me.

    5. Re:Global Warming! by Coryoth · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Personally, I am curious why we don't look for more grand scale technological solutions to environmental problems. We have certainly proven that we can very effectively destroy the ozone with just a little CFCs. We know how to increase global warming. Why in the hell hasn't anyone found a chemical that promotes ozone expansion or reduces global warming?

      Well there is plenty of work being done, you just have to know what to look for. Here's some Wikipedia information on various schemes at artificial carbon sequestration - basically just getting the carbon out of the atmosphere and locking it up somewhere.

      As to mitigation with regard to a stalling north Atlantic conveyor - the cause, according to the models that predict such a thing, is lowered salinity of water in the north Atlantic, which means lowered density which means it doesn't sink when it should, and hence the system stalls. The obvious ways to "correct" that are to increase the salinity by removing fresh water, or by adding salt, or some combination thereof. Doing such a thing would be a huge and expensive exercise, but depending on how badly tthings stall and how bad the weather gets, it may well be worthwhile. I expect that there are people working the numbers for various schemes along those lines.

      Jedidiah.

    6. Re:Global Warming! by shmlco · · Score: 3, Informative
      At one point in time (1975) we were told we should consider spreading soot all over the artic to increase heat retention. This "technological" fix was designed to decrease the dangers of "global cooling".

      http://www.thenewamerican.com/tna/1997/vo13no25/vo 13no25_alarmism.htm

      Perhaps, should we enter a new ice age, the northern countries will want to reconsider this idea...

      --
      Any sect, cult, or religion will legislate its creed into law if it acquires the political power to do so.
    7. Re:Global Warming! by Dr.+Eggman · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Although your point is well taken that humans are part of earth as well, I do think it would take more than a little ice age to end us. We managed to survive in Ice Age eras before, we can atleast by duplicating that success even if it may cost us the temporary 'hibernation' of high technology society. We'd make it through and eventually rebuild and do it all overagain. With modern technology, I think we'll do rather well. If we can keep men in space for years at a time, inhabit Antartica for periods, I don't think we'll see the last of the Homo genus dieing off from a little ice age any time soon.

      --
      Demented But Determined.
    8. Re:Global Warming! by ccmay · · Score: 3, Insightful
      The obvious ways to "correct" that are to increase the salinity by removing fresh water, or by adding salt, or some combination thereof. Doing such a thing would be a huge and expensive exercise, but depending on how badly tthings stall and how bad the weather gets, it may well be worthwhile. I expect that there are people working the numbers for various schemes along those lines.

      Just off the top of my head, I would estimate that all the energy ever released by human activity, from the first cave man's fire to the Atomic Age, would still be many orders of magnitude less than the amount of energy needed to separate enough fresh water from sea water to affect current flows in the North Atlantic.

      Just like the so-called global warming crisis is mere statistical noise when measured against the natural background of changes we know have taken place since the dawn of time.

      -ccm

      --
      Too much Law; not enough Order.
    9. Re:Global Warming! by Anne+Thwacks · · Score: 3, Interesting
      Those of us that are older will rmember that before the 1950's we actually DID spread soot EVERYWHERE. This was done by burning coal in open hearths.

      It lead to global acid rain, and a hell of a lot of deaths. We could also skate on reiers in England in the winder, which we have not been able to do since.

      It looks to me like the whole matter is a lot more complex than some people think.

      Dont forget, the gulf stream, and its return path, don't only take heat from the carribean to the UK, removing it from hurricanes in New Orleans, but also return cold water at the bottom of the Atlantic, and ech of these effects is in its own positive feedback loop, so the combined effect is magnified many-fold.

      While "the day after tomorrow" showed it happening much faster than it is likely to, the effects may well be as profound. Fortunately, I have some nice warm winder clothes for sale, see e-bay :-)

      --
      Sent from my ASR33 using ASCII
    10. Re:Global Warming! by rico63 · · Score: 3, Funny

      Nope, won't work. The tiny meteor will hit it, sppin it around and cause it to "fry" people randomly on the sidewalk.

    11. Re:Global Warming! by ColaMan · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Suppose someone tries to make decisisions about how to handle their health from 2 measurements taken just seconds apart?

      Really, depends if you're having a heart attack or not.

      Medic 1: "Nah, look he's fine, his long-term yearly heart rate has only dropped 0.05%"
      Medic 2: "But he's turning blue... and he's stopped thrashing about!"
      Medic 1: "Look,long term averages show that this is just a minor blip. He'll be up and about in no time!"

      --

      You are in a twisty maze of processor lines, all alike.
      There is a lot of hype here.
    12. Re:Global Warming! by MightyMartian · · Score: 3, Interesting
      Go to http://www.radix.net/~bobg/faqs/scq.basics.html. It's a pretty good article on the basics. One thing to remember about the anti-global warming. They'll cherry pick to their hearts content. They'll take quotes out of context, trumpet a few voices, some of which aren't even climatologists, over the consensus as to global warming. You'll notice this about all pseudoscience, whether it's Intelligent Design, UFO "research" or anti-Global Warming.

      The climatological community, you know, those guys whose field is climate (and consequently climate change) have no doubts as to global warming. Yes, they are not yet certain as to what extent non-human forces play into this, but the evidence is there that there has been a large increase in green house gasses in the last two centuries which corresponds to the recent warming trend. Furthermore, as we gain more knowledge of recent climate history, the more it looks like recent events are not simply some sort of natural fluctuations.

      But even if, as the anti-global warming crowd essentially suggest, the vast majority of climate experts are a pack of morons or evil political operatives trying to destroy the economy, the fact is that global warming is happening and that with it will come some very important consequences.

      --
      The world's burning. Moped Jesus spotted on I50. Details at 11.
    13. Re:Global Warming! by Yartrebo · · Score: 3, Informative

      You are right that the direct energy of combustion would have only minimal effects (though we have used enough energy to seperate the fresh from the bracking water, if we were able to concentrate all the energy across time and space of human history into the North Atlantic in a single moment). All known oil reserves only add up to about 1 day's worth of sunlight.

      However, greenhouse gases work by trapping natural heat, not through the energy of combustion. They work much like a catalyst, not getting used up in the process. Much like a blanket or a greenhouse is not consumed in keeping things warm, greenhouse gases do not get consumed in the process of warming Earth. The gas equivalent of a millimetre-thick dry-ice blanket around the Earth is about all it takes to cause substantial global warming. If you do the math, you'll find that the amount of CO2 we've spewed is several times larger than enough to account for the warming observed, and in fact, scientists are curious as to why there hasn't been more warming that has been observed. (current theories are that the ocean is acting as a buffer, both for CO2 and as a thermal buffer).

  2. Skiing in Europe by tivoKlr · · Score: 3, Funny
    So will a new ice age in Europe bring even better snow to European ski areas? Imagine skiing on mountains (instead of glaciers) year round!!

    Thank you ocean currents!

    --
    Ocean is land, covered with water.
  3. So what happens to all that energy? by ReformedExCon · · Score: 5, Interesting

    If the current is pulling all that energy from the warm waters up north and dissipating it in the process, what will happen to all the excess warmth if the current stops? Will it find another way to go? Maybe create a new current or even restart the same current again? That heat has to go somewhere, it is water after all.

    --
    Jesus saved me from my past. He can save you as well.
    1. Re:So what happens to all that energy? by Rooked_One · · Score: 4, Interesting

      if you look at the globe, it would be a warm spot in the middle of the atlantic... I'm not sure what this would do, but since it would be continually pushed, it would mostlikely split off at a fork... making Mauritania and Algeria even warmer and probably creating a SUBER UBER JUNGLE (forgive me) and probably warming up the caribbean as well as lots of hurricanes.... we'll probably have to start using chinese symbols or something after we run out of our symbols

    2. Re:So what happens to all that energy? by Coryoth · · Score: 5, Informative

      If the current is pulling all that energy from the warm waters up north and dissipating it in the process, what will happen to all the excess warmth if the current stops? Will it find another way to go? Maybe create a new current or even restart the same current again? That heat has to go somewhere, it is water after all.

      Well the current that pushes northward occurs due to the conveyor effect that occurs when the water reaches up north, cools, sinks, and flows back as cold water much deeper. In general the current just circles around the equatorial Atlantic, and only a portion branches north due to said conveyor. If the conveyor effect stalls the most likely outcome is simply more and warmer water circulating in the equatorial Atlantic. That, of course, is going to have significant impacts on climate in Africa and central and South America. Potentially a lot of the energy may end up providing more power for hurricanes out in the Atlantic. What exactly will happen is unclear, but I think its safe to say that assuming everything will magically right itself is betting on the long shot - there's really no evidence for such a thing. The most likely outcome is simply a lot warmer and more energetic weather for Africa and South and Central America.

      Jedidiah.

    3. Re:So what happens to all that energy? by uncreativ · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I'm not climate expert, but wouldn't that extra energy be dissipated through--yep, you guessed it--more hurricanes in the tropics? I also heard something to the effect that during seasons of increased hurricanes, there is usually correspondingly colder winter weather. Wonder if there is a connection to that trend.

    4. Re:So what happens to all that energy? by Anne+Thwacks · · Score: 3, Interesting
      what will happen to all the excess warmth

      It turns into hurricanes in New Orleans, and Tornados in Texas. I am surprised you haven't noticed already.

      More specifically, for hurricanes to occur, the surface of the sea has to be hotter than 30C (maybe its 32, I forget). This is a BINARY SPLIT - over Tcrit you get a hurricane, under Tcrit you don't. Thus a good solid one degree hotter, and there won't be time between hurricanes to rebuild NO.

      And don't forget Tsunamis. The media are going round saying "it was plate tectonics wot done it". I agree that they are necessary for it to happen, but a few billion extra tons of water in the ocean is definitely going to increase the forces on the bottom of the ocean, just like it causes earthquakes when morons build excessively large reservoires above hydraulic power dams.

      I know some people put their fingers in their ears and sing "La, La, La" but it doesnt make them right!

      --
      Sent from my ASR33 using ASCII
  4. If sledding in August... by ScaryMonkey · · Score: 3, Funny

    ...is the "price" of air pollution, well, you'll pardon me if I keep my old Pontiac. ;)

  5. Save Europe by toupsie · · Score: 3, Funny

    Drive a Hummer.

    (Plus it comes with a 12,000 LB wench, think of all the beer that could serve, Germany)

    --
    Strange women lying in ponds distributing swords is no basis for a system of government.
  6. And the cause of the cooling? by Dark+Paladin · · Score: 4, Informative

    Depending on whom you ask, this could be a global warming issue. This is something I researched back in high school and got weird looks, but the logic goes like this:

    1. Temperature warms up. Surface ice in the northern/southern reaches melt. This is something we've been seeing with the shrinking glaciers/nothern ice cap/Antartic icebergs melting.

    2. Ocean rises, which causes a lowering of the ocean temperature from the influx of cold water.

    3. With ocean levels higher, the ocean is able to absorb more energy, which shuts down the warm ocean currents.

    4. Without the warm ocean currents, weather patterns are altered. Cold air that would have been warmed by the ocean currents remain cold. In time, the water that melted is converted into ice.

    5. With the altered weather patterns and no warm air, the ice age comes into being. The more ice that forms, that more sunlight redirected back into space.

    6. This continues until enough build up of ocean warmth.

    Or - something like that. It's been a decade or two since I studied it, and I'm sure a meteorologist would do a better job. But what I do recall is that a good chunk of research shows this process can take place in as little as three years - which means it might be a good time to start buying some land down in Mexico....

    1. Re:And the cause of the cooling? by Hao+Wu · · Score: 5, Funny
      This is something I researched back in high school and got weird looks, .... It's been a decade or two since I studied it, and I'm sure a meteorologist would do a better job.

      Not to worry - Here at Slashdot, such disclaimers are considered credentials.

      --
      I suggest you read Slashdot
    2. Re:And the cause of the cooling? by RollingThunder · · Score: 4, Informative

      No, no, no, no, NO!

      Floating ice that melts has ZERO effect on the total level of the water. If you don't believe me, take an ice cube, put it in a glass of water, mark the level and let it melt. It will be at exactly the same level. Yes, some of the ice was above the surface of the water, because it was less dense.

      The only melting ice that will raise sea levels is ice that is currently stuck on a land mass, above the ocean. That melts and then joins the ocean, causing an increase.

  7. Re:Bring warm water in by ToasterofDOOM · · Score: 5, Insightful

    You can't make anything that would work on that massive a scale without spending as much money as would be lost if South America suddenly vanished. Nature is much bigger and more powerful than us and is totally beyond our control through methods like that.

    --
    I am Spartacus
  8. Original source articles by jcomand · · Score: 3, Informative

    original article in Nature
    news article in Nature

  9. Re:"The Day After" premise by Tekoneiric · · Score: 5, Informative

    Actually the movie was based on info and theories from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. They just added a bunch of bad science for plot devices. Take a look at these two links: Little Ice Age and Abrupt Climate Change

    --
    *It's not what you can do for the Dark Side but what the Dark Side can do for you!*
  10. 5 Data points? by wanax · · Score: 3, Informative

    The article only mentions 5 data points over ~50 years, 1957, 1981, 1992, 1998 and now 2005.. which is not a lot to go on, likewise it mentions that the last time the current stopped was 12,000 years ago, at the end of the last Ice Age, and that it may have slowed down between 1300-1850 which was a "mini" ice-age.

    I assume that the last 2 things were speculation, since the only way I could think of these things being measured is if it's somehow preserved in glacial layers etc.. could anyone who knows more explain what types of evidence back up these long term speculations? And if not, why we should draw any major conclusions from 5 data points over 50 years, when we don't know the variance of the system over hundreds or thousands of years, which 'seems' to be a 'normal' timescale for change?

    I'm not saying this isn't a big deal, but the information in the article is woefully incomplete.

  11. Re:"The Day After" premise by LazyEmc2 · · Score: 5, Informative
    The killing of the currents does not have anything to do with temperature differences. It has to do with water densities. I do not know specifics but here is a link to a nice write up on "abrupt" climate change:

    http://www.wunderground.com/education/abruptclimat e.asp

    Here is the part I wanted to reference: "Since the Great Ocean Conveyor belt is driven in part by differences in ocean water density, if one can pump enough fresh water into the ocean in the key areas on either side of Greenland where the Gulf Stream waters cool and sink, this will lower the ocean's salinity (and therefore its density) enough so that the waters there no longer sink. The Atlantic conveyor belt and Gulf Stream current will then shut down in just a few years, dramatically altering the climate. "

    Also here is a write up specifically dealing with the "science" of "The Day After Tomorrow."

    http://www.wunderground.com/education/thedayafter. asp

    --
    "I'm in it to win it, and no limit is my home." - Snoop Dog c/o PvP Online (July 12th, 2006)
  12. Re:Careful there... by dhakbar · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "They're the ones that refused to follow the Kyoto protocol."

    Because obviously, following a treaty designed to economically punish the United States for a few years would have solved all of this.

  13. Re:Careful there... by Ironsides · · Score: 4, Informative

    Not that Kyoto would do jack anyway.
    http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/Kyoto_Count_U p.htm

    --
    Fly me to the moon Let me sing among those stars Let me see what spring is like On jupiter and mars
  14. Re:Careful there... by Spy+der+Mann · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Because obviously, following a treaty designed to economically punish the United States for a few years would have solved all of this.

    Regardless of the economical consequences, wasn't the Kyoto protocol designed to prevent global warming?

    Oh, but the moment it has any economical consequences, suddenly it's an evil plot to take money away from "our precious and beloved country!"

    Sorry to crush you with this, but the world's needs are more important than a few enterprises' economical whims.

  15. Re:no more blame game by Peyna · · Score: 4, Insightful

    why?

    who cares why! forget the blame game!

    just deal with it!


    It's easier to solve a problem if you know what caused the problem. Otherwise you're just applying bandages.

    --
    What?
  16. Why the gulf stream goes North - Salinity Gradient by x14n · · Score: 5, Informative

    True, ocean currents will still move. They're definitely chaotic system and often behave "counterintuitively".

    But all that warm water goes so far north largely because of (cold) water with high salinity. This water is dense and sinks. This is called North Atlantic Deep Water formation, and possibly drives deep ocean currents around the world.

    This salinity gradient is the key energy source that "pulls" warm water so far north, more than the thermal or momentum gradients.

    This gradient broke down during "the Younger Dryas cold episode, which chilled the North Atlantic region from 11,000 to 10,000 yr BP." "[This] is postulated to be a turnoff [...] of the North Atlantic's conveyor-belt circulation system which currently supplies an enormous amount of heat to the atmosphere over the North Atlantic region. This turnoff is attributed to a reduction in surface-water salinity, and hence also in density, of the waters in the region where North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) now forms." Paleoclimate claims are supported by oxygen and carbon isotope studies on plankton.

    see http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v341/n6240/ab s/341318a0.html

  17. Re:Careful there... by Neurotoxic666 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Sorry to crush you with this, but the world's needs are more important than a few enterprises' economical whims.

    Yeah. But when your whole culture is just that, a few enterprises, it could mean a lot.

    It can also mean your culture isn't very deep and that affecting these few enterprises' economical whims might actualy improve things around, but that's another story...

    --
    You are more than the sum of what you consume. Desire is not an occupation.
  18. Bad news for Turtle Island too. by Apuleius · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If the Gulf Stream isn't pushing as much water toward Europe, then the water is lingering longer in the Gulf of Mexico, which goes a long way to explain why so many storms churned up to Category 5 hurricanes as soon as they reached the Gulf all through this autumn. Doesn't sound like fun for North America either.

  19. Maybe the Animals know something we don't by core+plexus · · Score: 3, Interesting
    I just read an article on an Alaskan News Site today referring to various animals 'migrating' (moving would be a better description) to Alaska. They even found a snake, crushed in the road. Maybe the animals know something. (I'm a geologist, not a climatologist-but I know the Earth goes through cycles of heating and cooling).

    The article went on to describe the states plans to back exploration of a "Northwest Passage" across the Arctic, in cooperation with a Finnish company. Apparently other countries are also working on plans to exploit the route.

  20. Re:Careful there... by i+kan+reed · · Score: 5, Interesting

    i've seen that website before and i decided to run a few calculations on it. now while you might think that that is a miniscule mean temperature change in the atmosphere, when one multiplies that 0.001227436 C by the ~725(depends on exact density, doesn't vary much) joules needed to raise the temperature of mixed air by one degree centigrade and the 5.1*10^18 kilograms of air in the lower atmosphere one gets the net energy "loss"(this being entropic and useless energy that we don't want, and can do almost nothing with) of 4538444610000000000 joules
    that's 4538444610 gigajoules

    for comparison that's about the same as a gigaton nuclear bomb(heat and blast)

  21. Realclimate by uncadonna · · Score: 4, Informative

    As usual there is a better discussion on realclimate.org.

    As I understand it the situation is that the mechanism proposed for sudden climate change by Broecker some 15 years ago (and exaggerated beyond recognition in a silly movie lately) shows some signs of actually occuring. New measurement expeditions have reinforced the evidence in this direction. Though the evidence isn't absolutely conclusive, it's starting to weigh in that direction and the new evidence makes the case stronger. There is well-understood physics at work, but it involves delicate small-scale structures that are hard to capture in global scale models.

    Though most scientific opinion expects it won't be enough to trigger a European ice age (unlike the YD event some 11KA ago) it could lead to a great deal more climate variability in our lifetimes especially in Europe and the northern reaches of the Atlantic than has been captured in most climate models, and in the extreme it may even cool Europe a bit as the rest of us get hotter.

    --
    mt
  22. Re:no more blame game by Coryoth · · Score: 4, Insightful
    The climate has been changing since before humans evolved. How do you know what's causing it now? Sure, there may be a correlation between industrialization and mean global temperature, but how do you prove causation?

    Generally the argument goes something like this:

    1. It's a perfectly observable, testable fact that atmospheric carbon dioxide can trap heat - in precis: it lets ultraviolet and visible light from the sun through, but reflects the radiated heat that the earth converts the ultraviolet and visible light into back. For detail you can read the fine points here. It comes down to basic well known physics.
    2. Since the industrial revolution we have produced a very large amount of carbon dioxide in comparison the natural fluctuations in carbon dioxide levels. In practice this means we have produced sufficient carbon dioxide that we currently have the highest levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide in 650,000 years, fully 30% higher than at any time in the past, and easily (by an order of magnitude or so) the largest short term fluctuation in the last 650,000 years. Given that according to that same ice core record (and others covering slightly shorter historical time frames) there is a remarkable correlation between carbon dioxide levels and global temperature one would expect we may see some repurcussions
    3. Historical temperature reconstructions, created by cross referencing between different proxy data series from around the world (including glaciers, ice cores, tree ring data etc.) show a distinct upturn in temperature over the last 200 years that is unprecendented in the last 2000 years or more. We are coming out of a "little ice age" 400 years ago, and there are natural fluctuations, but the very dramatic acceleration in increase in global temperature appears well beyond what might be expected from natural processes alone. Here is a nice chart showing 10 different, largely independent, historical temperature reconstructions showing how closely they agree on general trends, and how dramatic the current change really is.

    Is that conclusive proof? No, but then we don't have conclusive proof of general relativity or evolution either, we've just got a lot of good evidence. There's a lot more evidence that the 3 points laid out above as well, but they provide the solid backbone: atmospheric carbon dioxide traps heat; human activity has produced an unprecedented spike in atmospheric carbon dioxide levels; the beginnings of the acceleration in warming predicted by such a dramatic increase in carbon dioxide has been observed.

    Jedidiah.
  23. Re:Careful there... by rannala · · Score: 5, Insightful
    Because obviously, following a treaty designed to economically punish the United States for a few years would have solved all of this.

    I don't know if the treaty makes any difference, but do you really think the climate change is not going to punish the USA economically?

  24. Re:Careful there... by crazyphilman · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It's all pointless at this point anyway. Whatever's going to happen is going to happen. Anything any set of countries tries at this point is going to be pathetically too little, too late.

    Consider that the third world and much of asia is desperate to ramp up industrial production to help their economies grow. The way they look at it, they can either worry about global warming or the bigger fish they have to fry, i.e. poverty and catching up to the rest of the world. Are they going to spend huge amounts of money trying to clean up their industries? No. They're going to pollute the fuck out of everything while they manufacture all the disposable crap they'll be selling to the rest of us. Crap we ASKED them to produce, of course.

    Consider that the first world has already shifted most of its heavy industry to the third world. The only thing most of US can do to reduce global warming is stop driving cars and use clean energy generation methods. Is this going to happen? No. Not while our self-absorbed leaders are so fascinated with the oil economy they're willing to overthrow other countries to increase their supply.

    Conclusion: The situation is completely and hopelessly fucked. Everyone is acting in their pathetic selfish self-interest, and nobody is willing to give anything up to change anything. Whatever's going to happen is going to happen.

    It'll be an interesting few decades while things settle down. I'm betting on the following:

    1. Mini ice age lasting two hundred years or so, sort of like the last one, in all nations bordering the North Atlantic. Actually I don't mind this, I hate hot weather and I've always loved snow. Here in New York, things should be pretty nice, if a bit chilly. And blizzards are fun as long as you don't have to travel. It's an excuse to stay home and play Halo II on XBox Live.

    2. Very hot weather and major storms throughout equatorial regions. Florida and the other gulf states, for example, are going to get the shit beaten out of them every year. I expect most people to get fed up and move inland to get away from the hurricanes, and away from the plains states to get away from "Tornado Alley". Lots of migration will produce new ghost towns along the coasts, not due to disasters per se, but to people getting fed up with having their houses knocked down biannually. Actually I'm endlessly surprised this hasn't already started.

    3. Ocean levels might rise a bit, but this might be offset by increased ocean ice due to the mini ice age, so the whole "waterworld" thing is going to be a non-starter. Of course we knew that.

    4. Everyone is going to completely freak out and run around with their hair on fire for years and years. We on Slashdot will argue about it endlessly, never arriving at any conclusion, but it'll be interesting and take our minds off the fact that none of us have been laid recently.

    --
    Farewell! It's been a fine buncha years!
  25. why fight the inevitable? by nido · · Score: 3, Informative
    I am curious if there is a technological solution to the problem.

    Some people say that the real "global warming" problem has to do with increased energy output from the sun. Good luck stoping that one.
    Since there's nothing I can do to prevent the change that's coming, I'm getting ready for it. The ride gets bumpier from here on out, until about 2011 or 2012, which is the end of a cycle in the Mayan calendar. As I understand it, their calendar cycles back to zero on December 21, 2012. (The universe has an "overflow bug" too! :)
    --
    Learn the rules so you know how to break them properly.
    www.teslabox.com
    1. Re:why fight the inevitable? by killjoe · · Score: 3, Interesting

      "Some people say that the real "global warming" problem has to do with increased energy output from the sun. Good luck stoping that one."

      Some people say the universe is three thousand years old. Some people say people from Pleadies visit the eath in their beamships. Some people say ancient warriors speak through them.

      Some people say a lot of weird things. I don't listen to them. I listen to people who have spent their entire lives studying and methodically researching something using strict scientific methods and extensive peer review. Those people are more likely to be right.

      --
      evil is as evil does
  26. Re:Careful there... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The second largest (by total, by country) producers of CO2 are the Chinese mainlanders. There are just so many of them. But Kyoto did nothing to stop them from producing CO2....because they were a developing nation.

    And the only way we could have made Kyoto would have been to build a bunch of nuke plants. Good thing we have the tech - we have been exporting trouble free nukes to other countries for years. Built a bunch in Japan.

    But we will never build one here because of all the green knee jerkers, and the endless mantras of "solar", "wind" and all the other more or less useless, non-working tech that everyone chants in response to, "Well, nukes would be cheaper, more reliable, and would pollute less".

    Europe was much better positioned for Kyoto because they produce a lot of their energy with nukes.

  27. Re:FUD? by Minimind · · Score: 4, Insightful
    State of Fear has very silly politics and terrible science.

    Do you really think it realistic that huge, powerful, and rich environmental organisations would perform evil acts that only employees of sensible and socially responsible oil companies can save us from? Is it reasonable or realistic that environmental scientists, who in the real world are willing to forgo lucrative careers to take low-paid academic positions because they love and care about researching the natural world, would cause massive destruction of the natural world to score political points?

    In the real world, who has the most money for public relations and the most political capital? The ex-chief executive officer of the giant energy corporation Halliburtons is the vice president of the USA for goodness sake. Could the head of Greenpeace ever hope to reach such an influential and powerful position?

    All the local environmental fund raising events I've been involved with have been in conjuction with people that have very little financial resources but care deeply about recycling, local environment issues, etc. Very different from Crichton's own protagonist, who zips about the world in a Gulfstream Jet.

  28. Political interference and complex science by WebCowboy · · Score: 4, Interesting

    It's easier to solve a problem if you know what caused the problem.

    True enough. Problem is that humanity is a long way off from being mature and intelligent enough to determine exactly what sort of climate change to expect, much less the root cause of that change. Does human activity cause climate change? Absolutely. How much and in what way? We have no friggin clue and we wont in any of out lifetimes. This is for a couple of reasons:

    1. Humanity's lack of maturity prevents us from putting aside politics and self-interest. We try but in the end out efforts are nearly futile. Our best effort to date many might say is the Kyoto accord and it is doomed to fail. And no, it isn't the fault of the Americans--even if the US signed on it would never work. Why? Because Kyoto is just another political/economic shell game. Developing nations are pretty much exempt from making an effort at reducing CO2 emissions (including 800-pound-gorilla China). I don't care what reasons are behind such exemptions--if we want to affect global change the whole globe must participate. Second of all, there is "selfishness" involved. It is easy enough for the likes of Germany and France to look down their noses at the US and trumpet their wonderful CO2 reductions: France just throws up more nuclear generation and Germany gets to count all those communist-era east-German soot-belching factories in their starting numbers. Then there are nations like Canada, where the infrastructure is already quite modern and efficient for the most part and the cold climate and sparse population make it more difficult to meet targets legitimately--most of those reductions will be met by playing the shell game and trading pollution credits. In the end it means no meaningful impact on climate change.

    2. To paraphrase a favourite sci-fi author: "The universe is mind-bogglingly complex". Scientists know almost nothing about the direction of climate change. They have pretty little computer models that make predictions and they can make vague (and often conflicting) pronouncements about the earth heating up or more hurricanes or ice ages and whatnot. In the meantime the good people at Environment Canada cannot even predict the weather two days in advance with any reliability at all. How can we get the "immature public" to buy into a more climate-friendly lifestyle with that kind of track record? The weatherman tells them it'll snow in two days with the accuracy of a coin toss. Big, smart scientists with expensive supercomputers tell us the world is heating up...no wait we are going into an ice age (which was the prevailing theory in the 1970s)...no wait we are heating up (1980s to now)...no wait...the world will heat up a bit, but some places will be really dry and others really wet...no wait...we ARE going to have a sudden ice age...because of global warming melting ice and cooling the oceans....what the hell? Our smartest people cant quite wrap their brains around it much less the general public (I like most others are pretty much mentally retarded on the subject though most like to think theyknow something about it).

    I'm sure someone will argue the merits of Kyoto (maybe there are some--I just don't see how it'll change the world meaningfully). Others will argue that science is proving itself now (gee, look at all the hurricanes we had this year--never mind the fact it was only one or two more than the previous record set many decades previously, before we had the technology to spot those that didn't make landfall near civilisation). Thing is, the pronouncements we make and the justifications for Kyotot-like manoeuvring are so vague it is like proving Nostradamus was right.

    In the meantime, bandages and maybe a makeshift torniquet is all we have to keep us from bleeding to death in terms of climate change. I figure we should put more emphasis on more concrete, proven environmental factors--like living sustainably (use less energy--get rid of the big old SUVs. Get your lazy ass out of the captain's

  29. Re:Careful there... by Brandybuck · · Score: 3, Insightful

    When was the last time you saw a vote so one sided in this country?

    Let's see... how about back when everyone voted to invade Iraq?

    --
    Don't blame me, I didn't vote for either of them!
  30. Re:Careful there... by DigiShaman · · Score: 4, Interesting

    for comparison that's about the same as a gigaton nuclear bomb(heat and blast)

    Which is nothing in the grand scheme of things. I quote from this website.
    http://coop.co.pinellas.fl.us/TimeTweb/2001/may01/ maybert.htm

    "While a hurricane lives, the transaction of energy within the storm's circulation is immense. The condensation heat energy released by a hurricane in one day can be the equivalent of energy released by fusion of four hundred, 20-megaton hydrogen bombs. One day's release energy, converted to electricity, could supply America's electrical needs for about six months. "

    That's eight gigatons of energy released a day by a single hurricane. Now how many did we have this year alone? That's a lotta fucking energy by mother nature alone.

    --
    Life is not for the lazy.
  31. Here's the quote by Budenny · · Score: 4, Informative

    By Steve Connor, Science Editor The Independent, 10 February 2003 Generations of schoolchildren have been raised on the belief that the mild British winters and cool summers are due to the moderating influence of the Gulf Stream, a warm ocean current flowing from the Gulf of Mexico to the shores of western Europe. Without the Gulf Stream, our teachers told us, Britain's winters would be as cold and ice-bound as a frozen port in Newfoundland and its summers as hot and stuffy as a Moscow August. But the textbooks have got it wrong, according to scientists who have just finished a study of what makes Western Europe cool in summer and mild in winter. The scientists found that Britain's moderate climate is due not to the Gulf Stream, but to the Rocky Mountains in the western US 4,000 miles away. Using weather data gathered over the past 50 years and powerful computer models to describe how heat is shunted around the globe, they discovered that the contribution of the Gulf Stream was negligible compared with the influence of warm southerly winds originating in the Rockies. These winds, they said, played a big role in explaining why winters in Britain could be anything up to 15C or 20C warmer than the same latitude in eastern North America. "Belief in the benign role of the Gulf Stream is so widespread that is has become folklore," said Richard Seager, the scientist who led the study from the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory at Columbia University in New York. The belief that the Gulf Stream is responsible for Britain's mild, maritime climate appears to have originated with the publication in 1856 of a book by Maurice Fontaine Maury, a lieutenant in the American Navy. "One of the benign offices of the Gulf Stream is to convey heat from the Gulf of Mexico, where otherwise it would become excessive, and to disperse it in regions beyond the Atlantic for the amelioration of the climates of the British Isles and of all Western Europe," Maury wrote. "This idea is one reason why so much climate research has been focused on the impact of changes in the circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean," Dr Seager said. Several recent studies, for instance, have suggested that global warming might slow down or even stop the Gulf Stream which carries energy equivalent to 27,000 times the total output of all of Britain's power stations so bringing a far more variable continental climate to Western Europe. Dr Seager's study, published in the current issue of the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, suggests that the Gulf Stream accounts for no more than 10 per cent of the winter temperature differences between Britain and Newfoundland, Canada. The scientists found that the real reason for Britain's mild weather was twofold. First, there is a genuine maritime effect of being surrounded by a relatively warm body of water, but this has nothing to do with the Gulf Stream. Second, this maritime influence is bolstered by southwesterly winds bringing a warm air mass from the south. These winds would not blow if the Rockies did not exist, the researchers found. Even without the Gulf Stream, Britain would be bathed in prevailing westerly winds that bring in the warmth stored in the Atlantic Ocean. Water retains summer heat far longer than land, which is why the winter-summer difference in temperature is about 5ÂC over the North Atlantic and yet nearer 50ÂC at the same latitude in Siberia. Dr Seager said his study showed that this phenomenon which was independent of the Gulf Stream accounted for about half of the winter temperature difference between Britain and Newfoundland. The other half, he said, was due to the prevailing winds over the maritime regions of Western Europe--not westerlies, but from the southwest. Those south-westerlies brought additional heat to Western Europe. Their origins could be traced to a massive "meander" in the north-south wind patterns over North America, which was generated by the presence of the Rockies. "One such meander occurs east of the Rocky Mountains and brings cold air into eastern N

  32. Re:Careful there... by Max+von+H. · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Consider that the third world and much of asia is desperate to ramp up industrial production to help their economies grow. The way they look at it, they can either worry about global warming or the bigger fish they have to fry, i.e. poverty and catching up to the rest of the world. Are they going to spend huge amounts of money trying to clean up their industries? No. They're going to pollute the fuck out of everything while they manufacture all the disposable crap they'll be selling to the rest of us. Crap we ASKED them to produce, of course.

    Consider that the first world has already shifted most of its heavy industry to the third world. The only thing most of US can do to reduce global warming is stop driving cars and use clean energy generation methods. Is this going to happen? No. Not while our self-absorbed leaders are so fascinated with the oil economy they're willing to overthrow other countries to increase their supply.

    Conclusion: The situation is completely and hopelessly fucked. Everyone is acting in their pathetic selfish self-interest, and nobody is willing to give anything up to change anything. Whatever's going to happen is going to happen.


    I think you nailed the real issues at work here and I thank you for that.

    What's needed is a radical reaction, should we *really* want to curve the global changes about to kick our asses. But *who* is really ready to abandon some petty comfort to reduce his/her energy consumption? It's not a treaty or some tame government decisions that will truly make a difference if the global populace keeps expecting things to be solved without any effort on their side. Western societies are made of servile, assisted and selfish individuals who, for the most, expect others to solve the bigger issued without them ever lifting a finger (hey, that's what I pay tax for!).

    Drive/ride a power-efficient vehicle (and less) or public transports when possible, use low-power lightbulbs, don't abuse the heating and A/C, put solar tiles on your roof (for hot water and electricity), properly insulate your home (VERY important if you live in temperate/cold regions), etc. Just these few technical changes and some behavior adjustments would already make a HUGE difference in the yearly domestic energy bill of any country, which means less CO2 (and other crap) released in our collective environment. But also less taxes paid over oil...

    Industries comply more and more with environmental regulations and since energy has become more expensive it has become a concern to use it as efficiently as possible, since in the end energy saved = money saved. But I don't see individual homes being targeted by energy-saving regulations, incandescent lightbulbs taxed so people stop buying them, etc.

    Unless there's a true collective initiative (followed by at least 80% of the population), what we now call "efforts" to address the true problems won't do much to reduce the impact of what Mother Nature is about to slap us with.

    I think humanity is about to get its collective ass kicked in a proverbial way... Hopefully it will happen quickly enough for the collective memory to remain and be passed to future generations, so they won't repeat the process (hey, one can hope! It's free!).

    Cheers,

    --
    -- It's always darker before it goes pitch black.
  33. Re:Careful there... by 10Ghz · · Score: 4, Informative
    Because obviously, following a treaty designed to economically punish the United States for a few years would have solved all of this.


    How was it "designed to economically punish the USA"? By requiring USA to cut down emissions? Guess what Einstein? It required EU (among others) to cut their emissions as well! In fact, the requirements were higher for EU than for USA! And there's few things to consider:

    a) In Europe, power is generated relatively cleanly (nuclear etc.). Not so in USA
    b) Cars in Europe are relatively environmentally-friendly, when compared to cars in USA
    c) Industry in Europe (steel among others) had already spent lots of money modernizing their plants, making the more environmentally friendly.
    d) People actually use mass-transportation in Europe, not so in USA.

    What does all that mean? It means that USA could easily reach the requirements of the treaty by doing the stuff EU already did. EU could not, they would have to find other ways to cut their emissions, since all the easy things have already been done (not so in the USA).

    Even simpler: EU worked hard to cut down emissions. Then they were told to cut their emissions by 9% (IIRC) more. USA did jack-shit to cut down their emissions, and then they were told to cut their emissions by 8% (again, IIRC). So it would be relatively easy for USA to cut their emissions, while it would be considerably harder for EU.

    "Punishing the USA" my ass!
    --
    Lesbian Nazi Hookers Abducted by UFOs and Forced Into Weight Loss Programs - -all next week on Town Talk.
  34. Re:Careful there... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Actually, no. It was not. Kyoto was designed to slow the rate of global warming by a little bit as a first baby step and temporary stop-gap measure to get the ball rolling so that the world community could start talking about what to do as a real solution. Kyoto was never designed to solve the problem (and anyone who claims that is lying, probably trying to smear it with the tired "Kyoto won't fix anything therefore we shouldn't do it" line).

    So what we are seeing is the right-wing fuckers and the Bush administration crying like babies over the introductory step towards the problem. It took seven fucking years to get even the first hint of action, something that was only supposed to slow it and give us a little more time while we cleaned up our act for real. At this rate, the real solutions will never come. Many climatologists already believe we have passed the point of no return, the only question is how bad will it get before whatever fixes we do finally adopt take effect. But we know the next hundred years are only going to get worse, there is nothing we can do about that. Right now, we are fighting for the fifth or sixth generation ahead of us, whom we will never see.

    Kyoto was not designed to fix anything. It was an introduction to real discussion. And we killed it, and with it any hope for our future for generations to come.

    (While I'm at it, China and India both signed Kyoto, and they will both be subjected to the same restrictions that we would have been within ten years, for the restrictions ratchets up on them as their economies ramp up. And going by standard of living, both China and India are still third-world and will be for a while yet. They will be regulated as first-world nations when they will have barely reached second-world status. "Economic catastrophe for the U.S.," my ass!)

  35. Re:Careful there... by Scarblac · · Score: 4, Interesting

    In the meantime, China seems to be the only large country that's actually working on decreasing CO2 output. I don't believe the EU countries are going to make their targets, too much rhetoric and too little action.

    In a few years, we'll be forced to switch to other energy sources anyway, because peak oil is more or less here. We'll see what happens then.

    --
    I believe posters are recognized by their sig. So I made one.
  36. Re:Careful there... by adagioforstrings · · Score: 3, Informative

    77-23 in Senate and 296-133 in House is as one-sided as 100-0 or 99-1?? That's a clear majority, but not quite "one-sided."

  37. Re:No, thank you K-street boys for abusing it. by Lonewolf666 · · Score: 3, Informative

    The laws intent was to help rural people, as in farmers. However as with a horrid system of taxes that the US suffers from a loophole was found. The law did not originally specify what "types" of vehicles qualified for the discount. It merely stated over 6,000 pounds. This normally would have been the domain of vehicles used mostly on farms and some small businesses.

    And thank you incompetent politicians who failed to write "trucks and agricultural machinery" into the law. That some people will use any tax loopholes they can has been known for decades, it should not come as a surprise anymore.

    Now, what to do about it?
    In the current system, the obvious step would be to elect better politicians in the hope of eventuaaly getting better laws. Of course, this requires smarter voters in the first place, but it would be the civilized and legal way.
    If you like lynch mobs, you could also go after the people who exploit the loopholes. But that would be a real messy way, with a good chance of total anarchy breaking out.

    --
    C - the footgun of programming languages
  38. India and China? by Cybertect · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Less water the world over. Probably the 2 best countries with fairly good water will be America and Russia. In contrast, China and India (the 2 most populus nations) will have quite a bit less water.

    Do you really want to live in a world where two other highly-populated nuclear powers face political instability because of a shortage of water while you apparently still have enough to spare?
  39. Re:Careful there... by 10Ghz · · Score: 4, Insightful
    So Americans should have to accept smaller cars, because, why exactly?


    Because they pollute less. Because they take less space, reducing the severity of traffic-jams.

    We don't have the European knack for legislating what people can do.


    There is no legislation in Europe which mandates people to buy small cars. People just realized that they do not need over 2 tons of metal around to move their ass around the city. and they realized that in small cars are much more convenient than humungous cars. We do have taxation on gasoline that makes small cars more attractive though.

    If you'd read my comments in the past you've probably heard me lamenting the fact that nobody will build the type of car I want -- a small compact 100% electric vehicle. But nowhere in those comments will you see me suggesting that the government should step in and prohibit people from buying SUVs.


    Where exactly have I said that sales of SUV's should be prohibited? They are not prohibited in Europe either. The difference between USA and Europe seems to be that the government is actively pushing people to buy SUV's, by excluding them from fual-consumption and emission-regulations.

    Why is it that everyone living in Europe insists on telling Americans how to live?


    In this particular case: because Americans are wasting resources that

    a) should not be wasted because it's a finite resource
    b) they are harming the globe with their wasteful lifestyle
    c) they could manage just fine without wasting those resources

    If Americans were wasting their own resources and they only harmed themselves, I wouldn't complain. But they are wasting resources which is shared with others, and they are harming others while doing so. That is why I (and many others) complain.

    And this isn't a case of "telling Americans how to live". This was a question of cutting down emissions. EU was willing to do it, USA was not. No-one was telling USA how they should cut their emissions, only that they should cut their emissions.

    You don't seem to grasp the distances involved and the (lack of) population density in the rural areas of the United States.


    I grasp them just fine. What you don't seem to grasp is that most Americans don't live in rural areas. Finland's population-density is even lower than USA's is, and yet we seem to manage just fine.

    And that example is nothing compared to the low population and distances in the American west.


    Every single American lives in the "west"? I don't think so.

    Why is it that everybody gets all offended when they perceive the United States to be forcing our way of life on other cultures but they turn around and try to do the same thing to us?


    I don't give a flying fuck how Americans live as such. What I do care is that what they are doing to the globe. And I do get annoyed when they waste finite resources and harm the globe while doing so. If you had a next-door neighour that liked to burn old car-tires in his backyard, and the smoke spread to your yard, would you complain? If you did, wouldn't you be telling him "how he should live"? Same thing here: USA is wasting finite resources and they are harming others while doing so. They also absolutely refuse to do anything about it. And when other complain about it, you start to whine?

    Many people perceive USA as being very selfish on this issue, and with good reason.
    --
    Lesbian Nazi Hookers Abducted by UFOs and Forced Into Weight Loss Programs - -all next week on Town Talk.