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Web Game Helps Predict Spread of Epidemics
An anonymous reader writes "Using data from the web game wheresgeorge.com, which traces the travels of dollar bills, scientists have unveiled statistical laws of human travel and developed a mathematical description that can be used to model the spread of infectious disease."
If you try to login or register at Where Is George you get a message that they're taking it down temporarily because of heavy user load...
Too bad, imagine the influx of data if they got everyone who reads slashdot to participate.
The only dollar bill I remember possessing with the "Where's George" stamp on it came from a man working at a pizza shop with gigantic cold sores.
This article is really light on details, but the concept sounds strikingly like something that would be predictable through Seldon's psychohistory. Was Asimov right in his premise? Are human beings nothing more than complicated animals working through complex, predictable behavior? I wonder how much of what we do on a daily basis is a result of free will when I hear about science like this. Am I just a statistic? Governments would love equations that predict human behavior on a macroscopic scale.
Webmaster Wanted - Entropic Reactions
now i'm gonna sanitize all my money, and i'm kinda concerned about things i buy from overseas. The bird flu is pretty nasty!
Here is the blurb in Nature, Nature's Editor's Summary
and here is the PDF research paper The scaling laws of human travel.
I remember coming across this site several years ago (2001? 2002?) and just for fun entered a couple bills to see how it worked. Since then, I totally forgot about it until this Slashdot reminded me! I'm very curious to find out how 'my' bills are doing these days. I do remember, however, reading somewhere that the average lifespan of a one dollar bill is less than a year or two, so the chances my bills made it past the few months I handled them may be slim.
Zombie Infection Simulation Machine!
Brians! Must eat brains!
Software Wars
I object to this practice. Money should not be marked up or defaced with advertising, IMHO. I think it has a devaluing effect, and is disrespectful, at least to future recipients of the bank note.
How long until people start trying to think up ways of using bank-notes to deliver deadly chemical or biological agents to the mass population? They've already discovered "radioactive banknotes in Kazakhstan".
Get your own free personal location tracker
Urban Dead gets no love? That webgame is truly infectious -- what with its "243,575 dead and rising" :)
Power to the Peaceful
The is no "business model". The site DOES NOT SELL RUBBER STAMPS. It stopped selling rubber stamps in 2000 at the request of the U.S. Secret Service.
It's also not "these guys"... it's "this guy".
Please stop spreading this disinformation.
It's not nearly as infective as GetAIDs... A web game you can actually get AIDs from! What will they think of next?
Uhm.... don't diseases tend to go in the opposite direction that money does? Like aren't the poorest places in the world also the places with the most diseases.
A rabbit in the hand is worth 4 in the cage
Wow, what a bunch of crap science. They're trying to track movement of people by where dollar bills show up?! WTF? When you buy something at a store that bill might go back into circulation immediately but its just as likely to be deposited in a bank. From what I understand, banks send cash to regional counting facilities. From there it is redistributed. It's impossible to track this movement. A bill deposited in San Francisco could easily turn up in LA, Portland, or Seattle without it being transported there by an individual traveler. What if a person in Seattle then gets that bill from the bank, hops a plane to New York, but doesn't enter it's information into that website and then spends the money in New York where it isn't recorded and then through a similar process the bill ends up in Kansas City? IF someone in Kansas City knows about the site and gives a rats ass about it and actually enters the bills serial number it now looks like someone in San Franciso travelled to Kansas City. How does this help understand the movement habits of humans? Like I said, this is crap science and does absolutely nothing to further our understanding of how diseases spread.
But if you go to the wrong URL, it will be corrected automatically.
And it was only temporarily down.. it's back up now.
Transfers of money are indicative of the movement of people (though obviously not a 1-1 correlation). Finding patterns of money's travel will also show patterns of possible disease spread, as those moving the money are possible vectors of contagion.
Diseases SUCCEED in poor places because the lack of nutrition/clean water/medicine/education/rape-prevention etc. A new (or significantly different variation of a current) disease, however, that is transfered by, say, touch or close proximity (airborn transmission with a short life outside the host's body, for instance) would not be nearly as ghetto-ized as our current treatable-but-not-treated-in-poor-places diseases.
This won't be perfect, obviously, but statistics and Where's George are a match made in heaven.
Although the moon is smaller than the earth, it is farther away.
I spend a significant amount of time EVERY DAY to ferret out fake data. I have several automated processes that search for and remove any data that does not fit certain criteria. I take this site, and the data integrity very seriously, so I take personal offense to your offhand, unfounded, and ignorant comments.
-Hank
Now where's my Nobel Prize for mdicine?
Engineering is the art of compromise.
Another novel and interesting way I came across to predict the spread of infectious disease is the University of Iowa's Flu Prediction Market. A description from their page:
Information about influenza activity is diverse and widely distributed. Different health care professionals have different information regarding influenza activity. This information could be quite helpful in predicting future influenza activity if it could be aggregated and analyzed efficiently. However, because this information is disparate, standard research and statistical methods have not proven to be effective. Thus, the medical community does not have access to accurate influenza forecasts. The Influenza Prediction Market is an attempt to satisfy the need for accurate information regarding future influenza activity.
The first experimental prediction market was the Iowa Electronic Market (IEM). It has developed methods to predict future events ranging from election results to movie box office receipts and has a forecasting record substantially superior to alternative mechanisms. We propose that markets for infectious diseases may be useful for predicting infectious disease activity quickly, accurately, and inexpensively by aggregating the expert opinion of health care professionals.
They're currently working on expanding the system, but with their current market they give various health care workers $100 they can bid with, and depending on how accurate their bidding is they can get additional money.
So did the researchers who used your data set take this into account? For that matter, did you have a significant role in the study beyond providing the data set?
I did not take part in the study, I only provided the data. The data removed from the data set are entries that are obviously fake - for instance two entries thousands of miles apart, entered from the same machine. Or people who intentionally snail-mail bills to each other.
First, only the FRB can judge if a bill is unfit to be re-issued. You can't, a bank can't, a merchant can't. Second, the website simply tracks bills by serial number, and works if bills are marked or not. The site does not encourage or endorse the defacement of currency. I am forbidden by law to sell rubber stamps that do so. What the users do and purchase on their own accord is between them and their lawyer.
I think fast food restaraunts are pretty darn unsanitary. I was in line behind a guy last summer who looked like he was a landscape worker or something. He was dirty as all get out and covered in perspiration. He paid for his meal with several dollar bills pulled out of a grimy wallet that was wet with his sweat. The bills looked like they had floated in a sewer for a couple weeks before he fished them out and put them in his pocket and of course when I paid with a ten a few seconds later what do you think I got in change? His nasty, oh god do I have to touch them, ones. I considered for a second asking for my change in quarters but he was still standing right there waiting on his food, so I felt forced by politeness to pretend that there was nothing wrong and touch those putrid, falling-apart bills and put them in my wallet. Then the woman behind the counter who had three inch, curved, fingernails started to put my order in a take-out bag so her hands were all over my fries. And nobody with three inch nails can wash their hands very well because they are too afraid of breaking one. Then when I told her it was for dining in, she pulled everything out and tossed it on a tray so that the fries were strewn all over and touched the plastic of the tray. Now maybe its different in other states but here they are not required to wash the trays between uses. They only wipe them off with a greasy towel to get the ketchup and mayonnaise smeared into a thin enough film that the next customer won't notice it. I was so grossed out from touching the bills that I went to wash my hands before I unwrapped the sandwich. That's when I noticed that the restroom door only opened inward. So I had to grab the handle to get out, the same handle touched by the half of all men (and probably 99% of all kids) who don't wash their hands after wiping their bottoms or holding their penises. I've tried lots of different foods but that's one flavor I'll pass on! Anywho, fast food establishments have got to be one of the worst disease vectors.
Liberals call everyone Nazis yet they are the closest thing to it.
Thank you.
It is the difference between Sociology and Psychology, and a lot of people seem to take it personally.
If food stores in a given country drop below a certain level, you can make a reasonable prediction of the chances of open rebellion breaking out. That's Sociology. If socioeconomic indicators drop X%, you can predict with relative accuracy an increase in suicide rates of Y%. That's Sociology. If you put a million people in a trust game, you know roughly how many of them are going to stab eachother in the back for a given payout level. That's Sociology.
If you tried to make the same predictions about an individual person, you'd find that you had no fucking clue what that one person was going to do. That's Psychology.
Sociologists aren't making predictions about you, they make predictions about the average behaviors of average groups of people.
But you're not average. You're special. Everyone is special. That's fine, and not far from the truth. But people have weights pulling them towards one decision or another, and maybe you will say no and two of your friends will say yes. And you're all special. And throw a thousand people into that decision, and 60% will say no and 40% will say yes. And throw a million people in there and 64% will say no and 36% will say yes. And throw a billion people in there and 63.3% will say no and 36.7% will say yes.
Every individual person is special and unique, but take lots and lots and lots of people and patterns emerge. No one can predict what one person is going to do anymore than anyone can predict where a molecule in a cloud of gas is going to go. But you can still make accurate predictions about which way the wind is blowing.
The ______ Agenda
They are basing their findings on people who remembered to take the time to report their bills on this website? What about the thousands or millions of people who don't? That would make for a pretty big error margin wouldn't it?
You can assign each book a reference number at the site. Crossers can leave a book at any location once they are done. Those who pick the book can then goto the site to login information about where they picked it from and etc.
Pro's and cons to each mechanism:
Dollar bills:- Better to track since they are more widespread in usage as oppose to an eclectic few who might be interested in reading particular books (tastes come into play).
Books:- Their network holds uniform across borders. Dollar bills on the other hand may not be as exchangeable in another country as they are in the U.S.
Using games to track people is tricky though. I did a lot of research on this, and my findings showed that 80% of the population of the world are Night Elf females who just turned 18 and want to chat.
/syle
So the healthiest place to be is in the printshop where they make the notes and the worst spot is where they destroy the notes. I would alarm the union if I worked in that building. Can't be that they do not have some laundries at strategic spots like Las Vegas. The mob understands the problem.
Europeans can track their euro-bills here: http://www.eurobilltracker.com/
As I said in my previous post, nothing on the site endorses nor encourages defacing currency. But I guess you didn't actually read what I wrote.
"There are three kinds of lies. Plain lies, Damn lies, and Statistics."
Obligatory M. Twain Sig:
"Post No Bills"
Those bills have been deleted and blocked from entry on the site, as will any others you post here.
As I said, I take data integrity very seriously, and tricks and games like this will not be tolerated.
-Hank
-Eric
SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.