Shortlist of Possible ET Addresses
An anonymous reader writes "Yahoo News is reporting that Astronomer Margaret Turnbull of the Carnegie Institution has released a 'top 10' list of potential inhabitable star systems. NASA is planning on using this top 10 list as the targets for their Terrestrial Planet Finder a 'system of two orbiting observatories scheduled for launch by 2020.'"
"...private philanthropists who pay for the bulk of their work may find out first when and if extraterrestrial life is discovered." I think that in the event of finding E.T life, SETI just might, you know, tell some other people as well.
What's their phone numbers? ;)
While the chances of hearing from alien worlds is depressing small ("Rare Earth"), still the thought that a few private individuals will know first should give us pause. If there is more information in the detected signal than "hello there", who knows what could be learned? Markets may move in a big way (here's how antigravity works, immortality, existence of god, a big black hole is headed your way, etc.).
Then again if that's the only way we're gonna get these projects funded, perhaps these philanthropists should be rewarded for their risk taking.
The Terrestrial Planet Finder has been cancelled:2
http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewnews.html?id=109
So this list seems redundant. To bad, as it was NASA's most exciting project IMO.
But there is still ESA's Darwin, an essentially identical project, which is still scheduled for a 2015 launch as far as I am aware.
Now, is it just me, or does the idea that life may well need some abnormal event to kick-start it in conflict with that very idea?
Perhaps include *some* of these systems?
smash.
I run: Windows, OS X, Linux, FreeBSD. Just because you have a hammer, doesn't mean everything is a nail.
"I've chosen five to advertise the very best places to move to if we had to, or to point the telescope at," she told the BBC.
An open call for science fiction references if there ever was one.
Her criteria include a temperate zone that can support copious amounts of liquid water. If we're moving, I agree. There are chemical reasons we think life would be predisposed toward water but there could be different biochemistries. Any biochemists out there feel free to disagree and/or expound.
This story is also a good test of the slashdot equivalent of Godwin's law. How long until the usual sectarian debates spring up (and I don't mean MS)
Physics is like sex: sure, it may give some practical results, but that's not why we do it.
This search for 'habstars' (habitable star systems) is really fascinating, and perhaps even practical in an offhanded way. What better way to inspire future astronomers and astrophysicists than to find some beautiful blue-green jewel like ours out there, even if we can't detect signs of intelligent life.
This would be a lot more motivating and captivating than scanning the heavens for shapes of creatures from mythology, which is no better than looking for pictures of Jesus or the Virgin Mary in a cheese sandwich.
Once we find something out there worth travelling to, then it would automatically spur thoughts of developing means to get there. Even if such dreams aren't possible due to the limits of known physics, it's still a noble and instinctive goal, like our grazing ancestors had in seeking greener pastures. Who knows where such thoughts might ultimatley lead?
Life on Earth 'unlikely to have emerged in volcanic springs'
13 Feb 2006
"The latest findings of experiments to re-create the conditions under which life could emerge from chemical reactions suggest that volcanic springs and marine hydrothermal events are unlikely to have provided the right environment, a leading researcher from the United States will tell an international meeting tomorrow (14 February 2006) at the Royal Society, the UK national academy of science."
In the alternative Plos ran an interestin article titled Jump-Starting a Cellular World: Investigating the Origin of Life, from Soup to Networks which touches on the front running theories on the origin of life.
"Academicians are more likely to share each other's toothbrush than each other's nomenclature."
Cohen
We got motherfucking snakes on a plane!!!
If memory serves me right ET was after a PHONE Number not his home address.
Jon - TheSpork
The US Government, supposedly the most wealthy in the world, keeps breaking all of their promises. Peace, a stable economy, and now they take their stargazed eyes and focus them significantly closer to home.
...Poo.
At the rate we're going, by the time we actually need to get off this planet because we've hollowed it out and destroyed the O-Zone....
Congressman1: Alright, we're about to die. Any ideas?
Congressman2: We can up and move to another planet.
Congressman1: Great idea! Get us a list of inhabitable planets!
Secretary: Um...that analysis was cancelled not too long ago - back in '06.
Congressman1&2:
So why are we looking for life on planets we won't be able to get data back after a generation later? This really fits the meaning of "shooting for stars". After waiting 50 - 100 years, find out there is nothing there? So what if we do find life on planets, then what? What exactly does that prove or provide when we can't even all agree on evolution on Earth? Not to mention how to detect "life" on other planets.
What exactly is the point? Life is out there, I like to believe, but until I can see, feel, witness, study, examine in my own two hands, this is like online dating with some chick living on the other side of the planet and building long distant relationship through email messages on weekly basis.
Not that I know anything about online dating with a chick living in Russia... ok, I said too much...
"Don't let fools fool you. They are the clever ones."
Cancellation means that you attract attention and maybe protest from Joe Q Public. Posponed indefinitly means you won't get as much heat on you, and still have the same results. De Facto, those are two of the same effect for a project (stopped and get no funding), just one is with a more "softer" on PR...
C. Sagan : A demon haunted world:
http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0345409469/
visit randi.org
This "listing," "research," and "entire project" is all just for show...we've actually been travelling the galaxy to other habitable (and inhabited) planets from a secure facility inside Cheyenne Mountain--kinda surprised nobody mentioned that already! In fact, we've made friends with several other worlds and they joined our fight and helped us defeat a race of nasty snaky guys! Oh, and if anyone wielding a creepy glowing staff promises you candy for reading his book on Origin, run FAST. Sheesh...old news what?
"You want me to SIGN this thing?!"
Are they looking at Zeta Reticuli? http://www.gravitywarpdrive.com/Zeta_Reticuli_Inci dent.htm
--
Yeeeey, let's find some things to kill!
I think, therefore I am...I think.
The quote should read: "Carnegie Institution has released a 'top 10' list of potential habitable star systems"
...because it can't be inhabitable, if ET lives there.
1. Sell land and real estate on planets thousands of lightyears away (Mars is overcrowded and so passé)
2. Sell tickets from the new spaceport in UAE
3. ???
4. Profit
We need to take a closer look at mars first.We need to look under the surface.There has to be life there.There is no reason why life cannot be there.
Margaret Turnbull is quoted as saying
"These are places I'd want to live if God were to put our planet around another star,"
which I can't helping thinking is going to colour her research from the start.
As have the Keck Outriggers, which would have upgraded the interferometry capabilities of that facility (already the top in the world for optical/infrared astronomy). Their proponents were expecting to be able to image planets around other stars. (As opposed to just detecting them via the slight gravitational wobble they cause in the stars, or getting really, REALLY lucky and having one in an orbit edge-on to us transit the star. :) Keck already hunts planets, and the outriggers would have been a step up in that field, on the way to TPF.
The outriggers drew more controversy (from Kimo Q Public) than TPF, though, so they appear to be getting generally viewed as "canceled" rather than merely "in(de)finitely delayed."
Village idiot in some extremely smart villages.
As Michael Griffin explains in Griffin Builds Hopes For Terrestrial Planet Finder And Hubble Rescue Missions.
The short reason is that the Crew Exploration Vehicle takes priority.
just 10? our intelligent designer has been busy!
NASA isn't looking for ET's phone numbers, they're confirming Gate addresses. It's only a matter of time before McGyver and team of Air Force officers are heading out into the galaxy to do battle with the Gua'uld!
Ummm indeed... You may want to check before trying to correct..
Grasp of reality... slipping. Sentsix, you really ought to keep taking your medication. ;)
They say the first thing to go is your penis. Well, it's either that or your brain. I forget which...
She said NASA once had a policy of what to do, whom to call, and how to announce the news if someone detected a signal of intelligent life from space. "Today it is in fact a group of very generous philanthropists who will get the call before we get a press conference," Tarter said. They include Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen and Microsoft chief technology officer Nathan Myhrvold.
Crap. You can bet the aliens will end up with Windows on 90% of their desktops before they even hear of Linux.
It's a depressing state of affairs when basic research has to turn to private investment to be funded. Check out the above quote. "It is in fact a group of very generous philanthropists who will get the call before we get a press conference." While this condition on the research funding provided by the private investors may seem minor, what happens in other situations when basic research perhaps comes to conclusions that the investors don't agree with? Private investors can have agendas that aren't in the best interest of the public at large. Sure, governments can have agendas too. But with government it's the people who voted that government in -- and who can vote it out again. We can't do that with "private investors".
"I. Will. Not. Kill. Today."
Blank until
Just look at some of the life that grows in a college student's dirty laundry pile. Scary.
You never know what situations you might create life in.
What else can happen when an unstoppable force collides with an immovable object?
Here or here, a very nice article on the project, "Margaret Turnbull and Jill Tarter have a new list, called HabCat: A Catalog of Nearby Habitable Stellar Systems." (2003) Interview included.
Interesting that starting with the Hipparcos catalog of 120,000 stars and skipping all with major problems for life ("cataclysmic, eruptive, pulsating, rotating, or X-ray stars", low metal content systems, rotating too fast or too much UV or bad size or composition), left 1 star in 6 still potential life bearers.
Wiki on HabCat and Turnbull. The Turnbull page has a link to a PDF, which is a very interesting scientific paper about how the list of habitable stars was made.
Wiki article on the Terrestrial Planet Finder, which uses Turnbull's list of 5000 candidates within a 100 light year radius. List of Top 100 candidates. Note 18 Scorpii at 46 light years is number 62 in the list, and 37 Geminorum is not listed.
The highest ranked 2 candidates in that list are just 4 ly away from Earth, at Rigil Kentaurus, and then Tau Ceti at 12 ly. There is one at 3 ly and some others at 19, 20, 24 ly too.
Allen Telescope Array
Turnbull's top 10 list includes 51 Pegasus, where in 1995 Swiss astronomers spotted the first planet outside our solar system, a Jupiter-like giant.
Others include 18 Sco in the Scorpio constellation, which is very similar to our own sun; epsilon Indi A, a star one-tenth as bright as the sun; and alpha Centauri B, part of the closest solar system to our own.
The Terrestrial Planet Finder has been cancelled:
The article you linked says it has been defered. The cancelling part was the author's embellishment. This is happening because NASA administrator Griffin is responsibly trying to balance the retirement of the space shuttle, the completion of ISS, and the development of the CEV. Something has to give, it is space science. They've had a heck of a run. Look on the bright side. Extrasolar science is advancing rapidly without a TPF. The extra few years until it is flown will allow technology to advance even more.
an ill wind that blows no good
Perhaps you would like to learn a new word!
The AACS key is NOT 0xF606EEFD628B1CA427BEA93A9CA9773F
I found this paragraph highly concerning "Today it is in fact a group of very generous philanthropists who will get the call before we get a press conference," Tarter said. They include Microsoft co-founder Paul Allen and Microsoft chief technology officer Nathan Myhrvold. Is this for real? NASA (who pulled funding on SETI years ago) is now asking them for free advice and the Microsoft bosses are going to be the first ones to get the heads up on ET civilizations? Damn, that could be dangerous for more reasons than I can think of.
Send them a message containing the link: Click here to be removed from our mailing list..
It's rare that you're presented with a knob whose only two positions are Make History and Flee Your Glorious Destiny.
Lets do the math. Universe, ~13 billion years old. Earth, ~5 billion years old. Time to develop first sun-like stars perhaps 1 billion years. So there is a reasonable chance that there are (or were) Earth like planets up to 7 billion years older than Earth (at least around stars slightly smaller than the sun which age more slowly). There are some systems with younger Earths (*much* younger for those systems currently in the process of planetary formation). Lineweaver's group has worked on this and has concluded that ~70% of the Earth's in the galaxy are older than ours -- many of them by billions of years.
Based on this it is unlikely that either TPF or SETI (based on its current approaches) will discover "intelligent" life. The statistics dictate that you only have perhaps a 5000 (years) / 12,000,000,000 (years) chance (less than 1 in a million) of finding a planet which hosts "intelligent" life as we know it.
For those systems with terrestrial sized planets and those with water TPF is a reasonable effort -- it might manage to detect water and if lucky atmospheric composition that could hint at life. However pointing the SKA (or any other radiotelescopes) at the stars in the list provided are highly unlikely to be successful because they assume intelligent civilizations which are currently at (and remain at) our stage of development. (This changes the statistics to about 1 in a billion.)
The reasons for this are as follows... Whether you believe in steady state growth (Dyson's assumption in 1960), or exponential growth as "The Singularity" concept proposes the bottom line is that it seems very unlikely that a civilization would actively choose to remain at our state of development (i.e. zero growth for millions or billions of years). If you choose the steady state model the time to develop to a Dyson Shell is measured in a few hundred to a few thousand years. If you choose the singularity model then the time to develop a Matrioshka Brain (also here) is measured in decades. Once either of those states is reached the star goes "dark". So the star list is useless (to either the TPF mission or SETI) for identifying locations of intelligent civilizations with capabilities even slightly beyond our own.
Robert Bradbury
Notes:
For the above calculations I chose 5000 years as the longevity of humans with a reasonable level of technology development. One could limit it to smaller time frames (~100 years for radio or 40-50 years for lasers or rockets). TPF has a much greater chance of being successful than radio or optical SETI because it is working with a much larger time window. Water world longevities range from 100 million to many billion years if they restrict themselves to sun-like (
they've given up on you.
"Our interests are to see if we can't scale it up to something more exciting," he said.
My roommate actually spent a couple of hours looking up these solar systems to search for aliens with Celestia before I smacked him upside the head. Please if there are kids reading this, don't drop out of school. *For those of you who don't know, Celestia is software that maps and lets you travel around in space.*
Am I the only one who thought the article would be about addresses where they could have buried all those Atari games?
The closest they get is HD 10307. The entire list is:
c ron 2 Eridani, 16 light years
Tau Ceti, 11.9 light years
Alpha Centauri B, 4.35 light years
Epsilon Eridani, 10.5 light-years
Epsilon Indi A, 11.8 light-years
http://www.glyphweb.com/esky/stars/keid.html">Omi
Beta Canum Venaticorum - 27.31 light years
HD 10307, 41.2 light years
HD 211415>/a>, 44.4 light years
18 Scorpii, 45.7 light years
51 Pegasus, 40 light years
There is also a top 50 list
Vintage computer adverts: http://www.vintageadbrowser.com/computers-and-software-ads
Astronomy and planetary science have been well funded for 15 years. There great new missions in the pipeline. Progress continues to be made in extrasolar studies. NASA space science is as healthy as it has ever been. The Planetary Society is nothing more than a greedy lobbying organisation that takes with both hands. They will never be satisfied. They are no different from AARP or AFLCIO. I hardly consider their views on the direction of the US space program to be mainstream. I would not dream of helping them out.
an ill wind that blows no good
Probably I'm blind or just getting old.
Can anyone post a link which INCLUDES the ten systems/stars and is not jsut babble?
angel'o'sphere
Cost free eBook I read (by iBook/Kobo/Amazon/ObookO/Gutenberg etc.): "The Green Odyssey" by Philip Jose Farmer.
Grif: "And talk about a waste of resources, you know? I mean, we should be out there, finding new and intelligent forms of life. Y'know, fight them"
The 'Net is a waste of time, and that's exactly what's right about it. - William Gibson
by the time we actually need to get off this planet because we've hollowed it out and destroyed the O-Zone
Numa Numa haters take note: If you destroy the O-Zone, you too will be destroyed.
Whether you believe in steady state growth (Dyson's assumption in 1960), or exponential growth as "The Singularity" concept proposes the bottom line is that it seems very unlikely that a civilization would actively choose to remain at our state of development (i.e. zero growth for millions or billions of years). If you choose the steady state model the time to develop to a Dyson Shell is measured in a few hundred to a few thousand years. If you choose the singularity model then the time to develop a Matrioshka Brain (also here) is measured in decades. Once either of those states is reached the star goes "dark". So the star list is useless (to either the TPF mission or SETI) for identifying locations of intelligent civilizations with capabilities even slightly beyond our own.
I can't help but notice the high proportion of sheer speculation, verging on superstition, that you rely on in your post. So much talk about SETI is based on completely untested assumptions that "experts" have expounded, and that others have decided to take as gospel, lacking any hard data.
Examples:
- "The Singularity": This is a whopping big superstition, sometimes referred to as "the Rapture for atheists". The idea that we're all going to transcend our current bodies / technology / civilization / mortality within the next several generations is no more than a hopeful myth. There is no real proof that any such thing is inevitable or even likely -- it just fulfills a longing for immortality and transformation that many people feel, and that used to be fulfilled by religion, or Marxism (the idea of "History" as a transcendent force that would eventually produce a heaven on earth).
- The Dyson shell: Dyson's idea is intriguing, but seriously, why would any race decide to build such a bizarre artifact? You can make arguments for it, but the notion that this is somehow a probable development of any intelligent civilization is, again, speculative to the point of superstition. Even if there are millions of intelligent, technologically advanced races out there, we have no way of knowing that ANY of them would ever build a giant sphere of matter around their star. It's just a pipe dream.
- The 5,000-year window: This is also a myth, even more questionable because it is based on other myths, including the two above. The real truth is, we have no idea how our own civilization will progress in the coming centuries and millennia, and certainly no clue at all what path a completely alien one might follow.
I mention all this simply to make the point that a large part of accepted wisdom in the SETI field is sheer science fiction, and should never be mistaken for science fact. The reality is that we have almost no data to go on, and while it is tempting to speculate, our speculations should not be elevated to the status of established truth.
Agreed regarding Intelligent life-- however, glancing at your site and your description of the Matrioshka Brain- it appears to me to be something that humanity should fight against happening with every fiber of our being, or at least hope that nanotechnology doesn't pan out. Construction of one of these from the raw materials of our solar system (read: all life on Earth) seems to be a case of throwing the baby out with the bathwater. What good is it to be an uploaded mind in a Virtual Reality when it means giving up everything worth living for? How many would willingly choose to live within the Matrix, and if they aren't given the choice, wouldn't it be murder of the highest order?
Problem, is that even if there is intelligent life out there, (which i believe there may be) by the time we recieve a message, the civilization may be gone extinct, or just so evolved beyond our own level (technologicly or biologicly) that we couldn't communicate with them anyway. If there was a species out there that sent messages out into space, they would have had to do it around the same time of development that we are in. that could have been billions of years ago. Even if they are still sending messages out... to unknown recipiants (or each other) if they are even a bit more advanced than us, do you really think that they would still be using the radio spectrum to send those messages/signals? if a species did become intelligent, and it's civilization lasted long enough to get to our level, or beyond; if they were even a thousand years more advanced than us(much less a billion or two) I think they would have a means of communicating that is so far beyond us now, that it would be worse than cro-magnum trying to figure out messages sent via satalite, with no computer. we don't have the capability to recieve such messages, language used, programming language used, or even an understanding of the means of which the message is being transmitted. If there is life out there. I don't believe that we can understand there messages, or even HOW they are sending it.
I think you're on the trail of something important. In stable environments you get turtles and lizards. They can easily outcompete a life form that spends 500 calories a day just idling its brain and which needs a decade to teach its young to be at all self-sufficient.
The ruinous cost of a human brain can only be paid back in an environment that's variable enough to put a premium on adaptability. Otherwise "fitness" seems to map to "reproduce early and often".
... what are the Stargate addresses for those ten? :)
Bruce
The submitter got it slightly wrong. First off, Margaret Turnbull's team came up with a list of 17,129 potentially habitable star systems in 2003, and the work she has done since has been to refine that list.
b le.shtml
What she announced yesterday were TWO "Top 5" lists. The first list includes the top 5 recommendations for a SETI search:
beta CVn
HD 10307
HD 211415
18 Sco
51 Pegasus
The second list includes the top 5 recommendations for the TPF to examine for Earth-like planets:
epsilon Indi A
epsilon Eridani
omicron2 Eridani
alpha Centauri B
tau Ceti
Why the difference? Well, the second list is of much closer stars, and much more likely to have planets that TPF can find and image. The first list has stars that are a bit farther away, but are, generally speaking, more like our Sun.
And here's a useful link:
http://www.aaas.org/news/releases/2006/0218habita
Bruce
They no longer work for Microsoft.
"sweet dreams are made of this..."
It was not really possible for an earth like planet to be created for much of the first several billion years of the universe. Our star is a 3rd generation star and is made up of the explosive remains of the first two generations.
When the first stars were formed, there was nothing available in the universe other than hydrogen. Those stars would thus not have anything other than gas giants made of hydrogen orbiting them. When they went super nova, the explosions formed heavier elements including Oxygen.
From those remains, the second generation stars and their solar systems were formed. Once again, made up of nothing much heavier than Oxygen. When those went super nova, elements including Iron were formed.
Our sun, solar system, Earth and everything we know today were formed from that waste.
The Earth would not have been possible until the second generation of stars had died.
If Heim Drive works out, several of the top contenders are under 200 days away...
Wanted: One witty yet thought provoking
The big coincidence, of course, is that if you exclude helium (chemically inert), those four elements are also the most common in the Universe.
A big coincidence, or a sign of Intelligent Design?
That that is is that that that that is not is not.
1) XiaOrixpuh
;)
2) urrrkrrttktiitrrsktskkkrrtktaH
3) Sal
4) 00.001.356979700-.1200028125.5.5 T/AK (they don't use names only numbers)
5) Kricket (from the well known kricket wars (try google))
I know you're out there. I can feel you now. I know that you're afraid. You're afraid of us. You're afraid of change.
After all, aren't those the really important things in the universe?
If you send one of these nuclear rockets into space, it might kill some of the cyano-algae that is going to start the life cycle on some planet in a couple billion years, thus making it impossible for that future civilization to exist. :)
Seriously, I have to agree that the uber left-wing idiots against nuclear energy are clueless as to its potential. Of course I've already seen environmentalists complaining about the effects of open pit mining on the Moon damaging the environment... and studies to complain about the changing tides devistating wildlife on the Earth due to over production of lunar ores. I am not kidding about this one either. Lunar environmental protection laws... the next frontier of the Ecology movement.
BTW, I agree with that nuclear rockets are clearly the way to go for inter-planetary and interstellar travel... at least using current scientific knowledge and only needing to develop engineering skills to get the equipment running. All military vessels in space will be almost exclusively nuclear, as will likely all passenger vessels as well except for re-entry capsules going to the Earth. There is no way that a nuclear rocket could even compete against a single solar flare in terms of radioactive material and ionizing radiation that is produced from such an event.
In addition, nuclear fuels (fission, forget about fusion unless that can be made feasable) are the only way to densly pack large amounts of energy into a small space to make an actual ship be able to function in space. Chemical rockets are only going to be used to get people up to Low-Earth Orbit only... and that because lanuching via nuclear power is likely to give you some serious problems underneath the rockets here on the Earth. Yes, this is rocket science, but not advanced rocket science and nothing that the current generation of spacecraft designers can't handle or even really new production techniques. Or nuclear submarine designers for that matter. Unfortunately, the political environment is such that a nuclear spacecraft is unlikely to be built for more than 50 years.
I was just curious; are any of the systems in the vicinity of Betleguese?