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In Sony's Stumble, the Ghost of Betamax
QuatermassX writes "In a lengthy piece in today's New York Times, Ken Belson equates Sony's troubles in bringing Blu-Ray to market with their classic fumble of Betamax technology in the early 1980's. He also discusses the influence of Microsoft in the recent advances in the adoption of the perceived underdog in this fight, HD-DVD. The article also summarises the various twists and turns in the development of the format along with some scary numbers (that we're familiar with) on the estimated cost of Playstation 3
From TFA: "There are other industry analysts who contend that Microsoft is simply propping up Toshiba to further its own aims, like countering the PlayStation and combating the spread of Sun's Java software. Nonetheless, Toshiba is happy for the backing, given that the format was written off for dead just a few months ago.
'"There's no doubt that everyone has various agendas," said Mark Knox, an adviser to the Toshiba promotion group. "But whatever their agenda, Microsoft's support has been a huge boon to HD-DVD.'""
OK, so originally Blu-Ray and HD-DVD were going to be very different technologies. HD-DVD was supposed to be a quick and cheap evolution of the existing DVD spec -- small capacity red-laser disks that used advanced codecs such as H.264 to store HD video. Blu-Ray on the other hand was super high-tech high-capacity blue laser disks but still depended on MPEG-2.
But since the war of words has started, each format adopted each other's features. Now they *both* have Blue lasers, both have all the same advanced codecs, and even both have the same copy-protection system, all adding engineering and patent license costs. To top it off, HDDVD didn't get to market early, and thy are both likely to be on shelves this holiday consumption season. In short the differences are now pointless from the consumer's standpoint -- it doesn't really matter which one wins.
It's been speculated that Microsoft is trying to up-the-ante by backing HD-DVD heavily. Either to force a merger between the formats (and patent pools), or to stall the market until computer-based VOD can take over.
Business. Numbers. Money. People. Computer World.
Some companies want to provide products or services that people want, need, and use. Other companies want to ram proprietary crap down peoples throat so they get a lock on the market. Would you like to gess what kind of attitude SONY has after their rootkit scandal, and Microsoft has after their backing of SCO? INHO, we need a non proprietary standard, not a "better" one.
BTW user:bugmenot, pass:bugmenot works fine
In Sony's Stumble, the Ghost of Betamax
By KEN BELSON
AT first glance, Amir Majidimehr does not look like a game-changer in the battle to develop the next generation of DVD players and discs. As the vice president for Windows digital media at Microsoft, he neither steers a Hollywood studio nor controls one of the many consumer electronics giants that are betting billions of dollars on one of the two new formats that promise to play high-definition movies and television shows.
Yet when he and his team in Redmond, Wash., decided last September to abandon their neutral stance and to support Toshiba and its HD-DVD standard over the Blu-ray format led by Sony, the unexpected change of heart reverberated through the technology industry.
Suddenly, Toshiba's seemingly quixotic defense of its format had new life. Intel joined Microsoft in backing HD-DVD. Hewlett-Packard withdrew its exclusive support of Blu-ray. This month, another member of the Blu-ray camp, LG Electronics, hedged its bets, too, signing a deal to license Toshiba's technology.
And earlier this month, one of the main reasons underpinning Microsoft's move to shuck its neutrality the complexity of producing Blu-ray technology led to Sony's acknowledgment that it might delay this spring's scheduled release of its PlayStation 3 game console partly because the needed technology was still being worked out.
The possible delay and the Blu-ray group's loss of its once-commanding lead are not encouraging developments for Sony in its attempt to revive its electronics group after a series of bungles. PlayStation 3 is crucial to Sony's future, and not only because the latest version of its gaming consoles could generate billions in revenue; the new machines will include disc drives that will turn them into Blu-ray DVD players as well.
"The PlayStation is more than a game system to them; it's one of their attempts to own the digital living room," said Robert Heiblim, a consultant to electronics companies. "Blu-ray is also critically important to get right. They don't want to be weak in an area they feel they can dominate."
A DECADE ago, a prospective death match between competing first-generation DVD players was averted when Sony and Philips agreed to back down and join the Toshiba/Warner Brothers side, in exchange for a share of royalties that all DVD player producers pay to the format's creator. Now, no truce seems near, as neither side wants to settle for a small piece of what could be a big electronics success.
So consumers and retailers may be in for a reprise of the confusing VHS-Betamax showdown of the early 1980's, with Toshiba replacing Matsushita as Sony's adversary. But Sony hopes to have a happier resolution this time. Sony lost the battle two decades ago when its highly regarded Betamax technology was defeated by VHS, a more widely accepted alternative.
Once again, the differences between the two technologies are not huge. And a growing chorus of critics, including some studio chiefs eager to sell new products as quickly as possible, call the Blu-ray format unnecessarily elaborate and expensive.
The first HD-DVD machines from Toshiba and the competing Blu-ray players from Sony, Samsung and the other Blu-ray companies will all play movies with crisper pictures, enhanced sound and a bevy of interactive features like pictures within pictures and links to the Internet. The machines will also play older DVD's.
Technophiles got a preview of the HD-DVD technology on Wednesday at an electronics store on the Upper West Side of Manhattan. As Jessica Simpson and Johnny Knoxville cavorted in the movie "The Dukes of Hazzard," prospective buyers were able to see the difference between a plain old DVD and the high-definition kind. But the main feature was the price. Toshiba will sell two players starting in March; one will cost just $499, half the price of the cheapest Blu-ray machines, the first of which will hit the stores this spring. Samsung's f
echo -e 'global _start\n _start:\n mov eax, 2\n int 80h\n jmp _start' > a.asm; nasm a.asm -f elf; ld a.o -o a;
Didn't the MPAA wanted HD-dvd because it uses more advanced compression codecs which in return would make it harder to pirate over the superior blue-ray?
I wonder if MS is backing hd-dvd to please the MPAA so they maybe more willing to use MS Media Player store rather than Itunes when Vista comes out?
http://saveie6.com/
"Microsoft's announcement last September raised alarm bells at Hewlett-Packard, which was coming to similar conclusions. Hewlett-Packard worried that the software included in the Blu-ray format would cost so much in royalties that H-P would be unable to add affordable DVD drives to its computers."
From the article, which goes on to say Blue-ray hasn't set royalty rates yet.
Yowks.
Where are the 3.5" optical disks? The last time sony was successful was way back when they introduced 3.5" floppies. Since then they've had one flop after another. You'd think people would actually learn from experience. 3.5" disks would put some physical incentive behind a format. As it is I suspect most people, like myself, are yawning over these new formats. Am I supposed to be excited about having to buy a $2000 tv and a $500 hd/bd player for a few extra pixels of movies I already have? Please. Adoption rates are going to be dismal.
:T:R:A:N:S:
I think this is why Nintendo is doing so well, they're focusing on new ways to involve the player (in the TV case, the viewer) and new methods of interaction as opposed to the rest of the market, which is saying "BETTER GRAPHICS!" at the top of their lungs, hoping consumers will buy it. I don't care if in Gran Turismo 9 I can see the leather pattern of my car seat or I have reflective glass in my dashboard. Or if I can see droplets of blood when I shoot someone in an FPS. FPS games have lately been linear and monotonous. Run into a room, shoot someone, run into another room, shoot some more people...repeat for 8 hours, finish.
My point is, the entertainment industry is just peddling more crap hoping they can manufacture a need for it when in reality things have pretty much capped as far as necessary graphical quality (IMHO).
Oh, and when it doesn't sell because it's hopelessly crippled by DRM and provides no new content or value, they will just blame "those damned pirates." If it does sell, they'll just say "see, DRM makes those pirates helpless! We need more DRM!"
Bastards.
Because blue lasers and discs are consumer ready NOW.
Holographic discs are still 3 or 4 years away (like we have the same discussion about HD-DVD and Blu-Ray 2 years ago..)
The problem with the technology is we need some kind of HD movie format *NOW* because HDTV is becoming super-popular *NOW*. It's not good for the status quo when you will hardly be able to buy a non-HDTV (-ready) set in the next couple of years, but still only be "working on" the HD rental/movie format because "holographic tech is much cooler".
Blu-ray vs. HD-DVD? HD-DVD will win it out just because it's cheaper. But this won't phase Sony one bit; at least it means PS3 games will be expensive to pirate.
We've always supspected that Bill Gates was building a doomsday weapon, now we know how. Thanks for uncovering his nefarious plots.
Business. Numbers. Money. People. Computer World.
One analyst on NPR said that a format war ala Beta vs VHS, which causes confusion in the marketplace, can reduce the market by 90%. That is, 9 out of 10 would-be buyers stay away. So, bearing in mind that (1) both formats are copy protected, (2) to the point where the analog signal is being intentionally degraded, and that (3) a Playstation 3 is going to cost in excess of $800, thus giving the ~$250 Nintendo Revolution a huge advantage -- I can see definite positive outcomes of both formats imploding.
To make laws that man cannot, and will not obey, serves to bring all law into contempt.
--E.C. Stanton
Microsoft and its ally Intel have also convinced Hewlett-Packard to consider making HD-DVD drives for computers. This would give Toshiba an answer to Dell, which remains committed to the Blu-ray format.
If Vista doesn't ship with support for Blu-Ray, how is Dell going to sell these to people?
And when did Dell stop following Intel and Microsoft on technology choices?
"We've always supspected that Bill Gates was building a doomsday weapon, now we know how. Thanks for uncovering his nefarious plots." I think the entire notion of demonizing Bill Gates as the only person in the computer world who's after money and dominance is old and broken. Petulantly clinging to this notion requires that you close your eyes to the equally stubborn behavior of just about every other major company, including Apple (people will instantly be offended when I say this) and Sony (which some will automatically hate, and to be honest, since the rootkit, I have a hard time maintaining my neutrality toward them). I have breaking news to the small minded: Everyone wants to make as much money as they can and are willing to sell their souls to do it *cough* Google *cough*. Honestly, how much are souls worth when a fifth condo is so much more willing to impress the babes?
Why? The DRM difference between HD-DVD and Blu-ray is down to almost nothing. Except for that little difference, Blu-ray wins hands down on everything.
As far as I've been able to deduce, the DRM difference is this: When you publish content on HD-DVD you _must_ include managed copying. However (and this is the catch!) you're free to charge whatever you want for it.
With Blu-ray you (the content publisher) deside for yourself whether you want to include managed copy or not.
In reality I'm quite sure the end customer won't see a difference. If the publisher doesn't want managed copying they'll opt out of it on Blu-ray and make it extremely expensive on HD-DVD.
more info
it's in my head
While PS3 will natively support BlueRay (Meaning the games can store upto 50GB of high resolution textures and map data, etc.), the Xbox 360 will not support HDDVD games. This ended the war in my mind. Who the hell is going to spend several hundred dollars for a cumbersome ADDON HD-DVD player for their xbox 360, JUST to watch movies?
Thinking they could overtake a large chunk of Japanese market by rushing their product out, even a year ahead of the Sony device, was the greatest folly Microsoft could have committed. Had they REALLY supported HDDVD, they would have waited to bring their product to market, and included a HD-DVD player standard.
BlueRay has won the format wars before they even begun. Look at how profitable Sony made the completely proprietary UMD movie simply because they can profit from their own film distribution division. Neither Microsoft, nor the Toshiba consortium, have this advantange. Thus laying the final nail in the coffin.
Any fool can criticise, condemn, and complain, and most fools do. - Benjamin Franklin
because I find it hard to put money in something with the word "blu" in it.
I mean, how hard is it to add the e at the end, geniuses. A 2 year old could come up with a better marketing plan.
Just..never mind.
On PSP (available at Best Buy). I've also saw 80mm DVD versions of a few movies on sale at Sam's Club around Xmas; I haven't looked since, so I don't know whether it was just a trial balloon, or whether they're available anywhere else.
//Information does not want to be free; it wants to breed.
The market has room for many levels, from high-end to junk. Sony limited itself to good-to-excellent hardware, while most buyers wanted mid-to-low end. Sony got buried. True, it was mostly in manure, but the important thing is that it got buried.
If Blu-ray is kept proprietary, it's doomed, for exactly the same reasons.
(2) Also, the market will quickly want recordable HD. Blu-ray-R will need a major technology change. I don't know about HD-DVD-R, but it will at least have the head start that it can be read (and perhaps written) by red lasers and development of existing technology.
(3) IMHO, the entire market will be stillborn if copy protection is part of it. Regardless of what's legal, people buy recorders and blank disks to make copies, for the buyer at other locations, and for friends and Napster-type sharing. Comparatively few people will buy a disk simply to have a pre-recorded movie or game, without the ability to copy it. (Not to mention that any copy prevention system is a sitting target that can be quickly broken.)
Pre-recorded disks can't be written to. Therefore, any pre-recorded disk will have to install copy prevention software on the user's computer -- at least a counter, to permit the backup copy, and a copy-prevention system to prevent further copies. We've seen what happened when Sony tried to do this with its rootkit. (4) Finally, HDTV sets are still uncommon and expensive. Cable broadcasters are sending out HDTV, but until home sets have good distribution, there's no market for either Blu-ray or HD-DVD players or recorders. HDTV seems to be ready for a surge, so I think we can look for an increasing demand for HD disks. We live in interesting times.
So far, there is a lot of evidence that Blu-ray is DOA. HD-DVD is faster to market. HD-DVD players are likely to be more than $500 less expensive than Blu-ray. HD-DVD is cheaper to manufacture. HD-DVD will be backward compatible with DVD with little overhead. The blackhorse in all this is the PS3, but the PS3 looks like it is going to be a *huge* risk for Sony. The depressing part is that this is turning into a Microsoft vs. Sony fight. Choosing between those to companies doesn't sit well with me, given their track record on doing things good for the consumer.
Laboratree - Scientific collaboration based on OpenSocial.
Now Sony is a "content" company with a division that makes hardware.
A division that can't think first about how to make the hardware great but has to think about (and re-think, and think about it some more) "How can we make sure that this new piece of gear can never, ever, under any circumstances, be used to violate copyright in any conceivable way and any that aren't?".
While they were doing that instead of designing cool new hardware Apple came out with the MP3 version of the Walkman.
Because of that the Mini-Disc never became what it could have been.
Because of the content side worrying about copyright instead of cool hardware they screwed up a bunch of people's computers and convinced many of them and many others to avoid any future purchases of Sony hardware.
I suspect a hadware only company that worried about copyright about as much as the creators of Betamax did could have already had a DRM-free Blu-Ray product on the market by now.
I see even classic Slashdot is now pretty much unusable on dial up anymore.
Every. Single. Time. that Sony has introduced a proprietary piece of hardware, it has failed miserably. The only exception, to a certain extent, was the PSX... except that by comparison to its competition at the time, it was the open format, with incredibly loose requirements for developers. (as compared to Nintendo's lingering draconian measures, and Sega's general insanity at the time)
Every other device they've put out there, they've tried to lock people in to their format, and make sure they pay at both ends, and have fallen on their faces.
Bush: He's Liberal in all the wrong ways.
Who gives a flying crap about what they want to sell you, go buy a external or external kit and join the future now. Put what ever you want on it now. Do some drive swapping with friends or mail it to your buddy in South Dakota now and enjoy a "upload" rate faster than anything you could afford.
People have become too focussed on the smoke and mirrors that they ignore the useable more logical option right in front of them.
We've all been waiting for one format to fail (which probably won't happen for another few years or so), so we will be able to go out and get a player and media without fear it would be useless a year later. This strikes me as a small (as in still very possible and practically equally likely for Sony to take the lead without some miracle taking place) push into HD-DVD's direction as the future format. I hope Blu-Ray will come out on top though, since their capacity would probably be more 1080p friendly (Although I am not sure an HD-DVD cannot hold two hours of 1080p footage). I'm more curious about what the generation after that will push as the reason for upgrading (since Blu-Ray and HD-DVD max out the HDTV/ATSC picture quality, and any more then 7.1 speakers would be too many physical speakers).
In undeveloped countries, the consumer controls the market. In capitalist America, the market controls you.
Playing movies on PCs isn't that useful. PC play of HDTV movies will be so locked down that it won't be worth doing. The MPAA would prefer it if you couldn't play movies on PCs at all. Microsoft's position thus really doesn't matter all that much.
What's Christ got to do with it? If you believe in the guy why are you mentioning his name so inappropriately, and if you don't then why is it for his sake? In anycase perhaps you might consider leaving him out of such irrelevant issues in future, and thereby not so unnecessarily offend the ears of those who worship him.
Because the HD formats are going to render a large portion of displays obsolete. Between killing component output, and requiring HDCP-compliant displays for full resolution, they're going to break about 90% of the HD sets on the market today.
Interesting theory, but wrong on its face. All the codecs in question (MPEG-2, VC-1, H.264) are fully and publically documented. Picking one over the other wouldn't help or hurt piracy.
Well, it has been suggested that one of the reasons that Blu-ray used MPEG-2 is that they were assuming they'd get the 50 GB dual-layer format working much easier than they had, so they could use the least efficient codec, meaning any rip from the disc would be unweildy in size. Which is really Sony shooting themselves in the foot, since they don't have 50 GB out of the lab yet, nor non-MPEG-2 authoring tools, so they're going to struggle to get long movies onto single discs.
In practice, AACS DRM is very well designed. I wouldn't assume any deCSS like solution for it will happen. On the flip side, there is Mandatory Managed Copy, so there will be a legal way to rip for Media Center use.
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Let's try to be realistic here....
As I look through the posts I see some good information, the usual tinfoil hat stuff, and some flat out misperceptions or bad assumptions.
As I usually say, everyone here needs to go read about technology more in detail before they decide for themselves.
Here is what I know, and I admit I am not an expert by any means.
1) Both technologies have a lot in common, the main distinction physically is the type of material used in the Discs, and how many layers you can pack into a Disc. Blu-Ray has the seemingly advantage with 'possibly' putting more layers into the Disc; however, HD-DVD has the advantage with a bit more reliable encasing of the layers, not as prone to damage.
2) Sony and Toshiba are the companies behind each product. However Sony is intent on keeping Blu-ray 100% to themselves, Toshiba is more willing to license out the technology.
3) HD-DVD started to slump in popularity, as Sony was in the process of upping the bar of more data, etc etc. This started to make Toshiba more flexible with the format, and Sony a bit more arrogant with their format. Strangly, this is also what set the stage for the shift in functions and popularity.
4) As new proposals or needs were expressed to Toshiba for built-in interface elements, adding more codec support, etc, as more ideas were added to the table, Toshiba was willing to work with them. Sony on the other hand rejected a lot of outside input, the arrogance was working against them.
5) Microsoft decides a key element of media of the future (especially in relation to their plans for consumer features), is that the content is allowed to be moved from the Media to a storage device, with or without the content protection. (i.e. the protection would stay with the data, not with the Media)
6) Toshiba was flexible and was willing to allow copying to an alternative storage device, Sony was very much against it. Sony's idea was that the content had to stay on their media, no no to copying it.
7) So 5 and 6 is where Microsoft said, HD-DVD is the one we will support, and this made a bit of press, it also made the rest of the industry re-evaluate both technologies, and in doing so, a lot of early Blu-Ray supporters found that Sony wasn't willing to give the features a lot of people wanted.
8) This brings us to the move by other companies. HP is a prime example, as they directly approached Sony, and said, Blu-ray needs to support some important features, Sony said no, and HP said, ok, we can't do an exclusive backing anymore.
Sony had the technology and should of owned this medium and emerging format war, but they got arrogant, as they did with BetaMax and many other products in their history, and basically lost the game not in technology, but in playing nice with others.
I don't remember the specifics of the features HP requested from Sony, but it is worth a search for people interested.
Also for everyone that is saying this war is only about Protection technology, etc. They are a bit right, but Sony is the one screwing the consumer more than Toshiba - and if you don't believe that, 1) Look it up & 2) Remember Sony has a big film division, Toshiba doesn't.
One of the main features that MS felt was important in the format about copying from the media was actually a pretty smart move on MS's part, and it will benefit consumers (even if you hate MS).
Microsoft sees a future where all your movies are also in a Jukebox on your computer/server as Audio files are in many people's homes now. You may own the CD, but most people listen to them from a digital archive. Microsoft believes Movies, DVD and HD-DVD content will also evolve to this level, even if not immediately. So the ability to move the movie off the media to a server is pretty important in creating a digital jukebox.
Microsoft did have an agenda, just not one that is so underhanded, they see Vista as offering Movie storage and Movie servers in homes, a good selling point for
In other words, until drives are available that read and write both Blu-Ray and HD DVD for less than $100, I'll pass, thanks.
Of course, I expect dual format drives are 'impossible', but then I seem to remember a lot of bleating about that from manufacturers about DVD+R/W vs DVD-R/W too, and yet dual-layer multi-format burners are like $40 now, so forgive me if I don't believe it this time either.
If it takes a couple of years that's fine - I certainly don't intend buying any movies in these formats until I know which one has 'won' anyway.
http://www.physorg.com/news9607.html
is 300 GB per disc using RED lasers (1 or 2 tb using blue lasers) enough for you?
yeah, the technology is write once, read many, and not rewritable, but if you look at the cd and dvd market rewritable is more 'niche' use than write once. write once is what is cheap, so it's what people like.
inphase is definitely the darkhorse for completely usurping both blu-ray and hd-dvd. With 300 GB to play with, you have over 40 MB/second bitrates to play with for video streams. Lossless video compression, anyone? you can easily fit 720p using a 2:1 losseless compression, and leave plenty of room for a 5.1 audio stream or two.
https://www.gnu.org/philosophy/free-sw.html
Plus about 2X more expensive per GB. Plus having a much higher chance of all your data being destroyed suddenly.
Each of the individual "incoveniences" you gloss over are show-stoppers on their own.
Netflix isn't going to ship you hard drives.
You can't loan/sell individual movies to friends
Trivially easy to destroy via heat, electricity, magnets, G-forces, etc.
Discs made by studios will have DRM on them, but there's no reason to believe Blu-ray/HD-DVD burners will have some embedded DRM. Home-made DVDs don't have CSS on them, do they?
Pray every day that he'll eventually return your entire movie collection... Discs are much less fragile, much more flexible, very high bandwidth, and much lower latency, in this case.
Plus, with discs, it's usually practical to make this a one-way transaction (no return).
Slashdot gets worse every day... Pipedot: News for nerds, without the corporate slant
For a much more balanced account of the competition, see this reference
Basically, beta mostly had the lead on features and quality, but only by a few months. VHS had the advantage of lower price. This did not trouble Sony, because Sony had traditionally offered high-end, high-margin products rather than trying to dominate market share. But Sony had imagined that the primary use of the VCR would be time-shifting.
What Sony failed to anticipate was the emergence of the rental market. Rental shops tended to favor the system with greater market share--which led people to buy more VHS machines--which increased the preference of rental shops for the VHS format. As documented in the reference above, the failure of beta in the marketplace coinceded with the explosion of the video rental market.
Yes, they take up considerable more space. You're getting disks that are 1080p. This is around 3X the space required today. So your typical movie will take around 20-25GB or more. Not to mention the extras will be 1080p so you'll likely have the same amount of disks.
Of course, the subset of people that can actually benefit from 1080p is marginal right now and probably for the next 7+ years. Mainly because hardly anyone actually has a TV that can handle 1080p. Hell, most people still don't have a TV that can handle HD.
If I was a betting man I would argue that our current DVD format has at least 10 years of market dominance; it will hold more than 80% of the market for the next 10 years.
It's cheap, has evolved and people understand it.
"If you are a dreamer, a wisher, a liar, A hope-er, a pray-er, a magic bean buyer
The industry joke about Sony since they decided to get into content after losing the Betamax war is that:
"Sony is less than the sum of its parts"
What's the opposite of synergy? disynergy? The stuff the hardware division does to help the content division hurts hardware more than it helps content, and vise versa.
My video compression blog