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Pen-Based PDA Market on Death Bed
An anonymous reader writes "The traditional pen-based PDA market is destined to evaporate within the next four years, according to HP, and it will be focusing its handheld efforts on converged smart phone devices, such as its latest BlackBerry rivals unveiled this week -- the iPAQ rw6800 and the iPAQ hw6900." From the article: "This won't come as a surprise to many, as HP hasn't given its traditional pen-based product line a refresh since the launch of the iPAQ hx4700 towards the middle of 2004. It released the iPAQ rx1950 in September of last year, but this was very much an entry-level product and made few waves among the high-end, tech-savvy consumers that dominate the PDA segment."
Pen Based PDA's will be replaced by better tablet pcs.
I am not sure why they have not caught on a lot more, they offer tons on functionality, and decent uptimes.
Take handwritten notes and have them stored in digital format stored immediately?
Why not?
Windows? I haven't used that since 1999. Fix the Slashdot Problems
Fine, get out of the market. Just please, someone stay in. I'd be lost without my PDA, and I don't want a 'smartphone'. I want something I can reference while holding the phone...
'Sensible' is a curse word.
Harley-Davidson has a release fortelling the impending doom of automobiles in favor of motorcycles.
not all of us WANT all in one devices. I like my phone, MP3 player, and PDA being separate devices. If one breaks I'm not screwed three times over.
... and I can't stand it. I could enter data incredibly fast with one hand with pen on the palm, with the treo I have to fumble using those stupid small keyboards, which takes two hands and is very, very , very slow compared to just writing something with the pen. I have just about given up on entering any data into the thing because it is so difficult. I want a palm phone with no keyboard. I guess I'll be going back to my regular old palm and separate phone though.
I love my Palm with satnav software. For me, this is the best compromise yet for satnav: it's linked to my address book, easily updated with new maps/POI etc, and usable everywhere. Much better than traditional in-car satnav. Running this on a phone would suck, too, thanks to the tiny screen of a phone.
Most people NEVER needed a PDA anyway - a calendar and addressbook in a mobile is enough for most people.
Plus many modern PDAs cost almost as much as a small / low budget laptop. Why bother buying an expensive gizmo if you can the real thing for a bit more? Also subsidized smart phones from network operators will always be cheaper as 'unconnected' PDAs.
So in the future we will only have even smarter phones and mini notebooks. PDAs will be gone - they were an evolutionary step to the new offsprings.
PDAs are slowly going the way of the pager.
As soon as you have devices that do everything a PDA does, but better and still cheap, the PDA as it is now will disappear. The problem is a lot of these devices now try to do everything, but don't do anything well (and they're expensive). Once that begins to change, it will be no surprise.
That's what i thought the origami was going to be. Why not have a blackberry-type device which is super easy to use, works perfectly with Exchange, and has all the cool pen-based pda functionality. As long as they could pull it off without being cumbersome, i think it would work. Thats why some devices succeed and some fail: crappy ones are too cumbersome to actually use.
Han shot first.
Netcraft have only confirmed that it's dying. The Spelling Nazis also endorsed the pronouncement.
the high-end, tech-savvy consumers
Do you mean the early adopters who are willing to spend way to much on a piece of kit so they can flaunt their technical superiority? I wear a watch, I carry a planner and I have a pen. My watch is self winding (yes, it is even an analog watch), I recharge my planner once a year (calendar refils) and a pen is always at hand. I guess that just leaves the effort of finding the correct date and writing something down. Oh, and manually checking the schedule.
The cancel button is your friend. Do not hesitate to use it.
The PDA (personal digital assistant) is simply changing shape. It's called the cellphone. We need our cellphones. Take a look at Japanese cellphones. They are used as e-wallets, garage door openers, gym membership verifiers, 3 way video conference communicators, and so on. With the advent of e-ink and flexible display technology, we can expect larger screens with higher resolution and lower power consumption that roll out. Take a look at the images at e-ink.com. The PDA is not dead. The personal digital assistant is simply changing shape to accommodate the needs of people the world round.
In theory a PDA should have been a threat to the IPOD as well. IT's clear the IPOD's selling point isn't functionality per se.
My ppc plays videos and music (via a 1 gig sd card). I also have bluetooth (used mostly for DUN) - Wifi. I can do basical word processing and spreadsheet functions - surf the web, read ebooks, play games, skype, instant message... just a wide range of things at a cost on par with and in some instances below the cost of an IPOD.
Origami is going to need cool factor and the right price point to be effective because feature filled handhelds are already here - and no one wants them.
un burrito me trampeó.
The one class of PDAs I know to be on the rise is... analog!
I just splurged and dropped ~$20 on a new PDA. This PDA I purchased is great! The batteries never run out, it is almost totally immune to shock from being dropped, I can transfer data easily between home and office, and the format is universal so I never have to worry about incompatibilities, and it is so fast and easy to use that even my parents can understand it. I went ahead and purchased an add-on module for it so I could have the advanced calendaring to track my gigs and rehearsals. Luckily, I already had a docking station for it with extra storage capacity as well as a variety of other add-ons, so it fit right into my daily routine.
I consider it one of the best investments I've made in years. Spending $20 to successfully replace a $300 device may not sound realistic, but I've never been more organized than I am now. All I had to do that I got rid of my old PDA systems (Palm OS based devices) and find something that fit better with my new filing system.
-- Stu
/. ID under 2,000. I feel old now.
Just like how the mobile phone was going to replace the handheld video game system in a few years. Or how desktops were going to be replaced by laptops, or how laptops were going to be replaced by tablet PCs.
Some people just don't want a PDA with a monthly subscription fee attached.
I want a Cell Phone. One that isn't the size of a damn PDA, but has text input via a stylus and touchscreen.... Large Phones deter me..... But it's useful being able to "pencil in" appointments, assignments, and stuff like that on a PDA.
In undeveloped countries, the consumer controls the market. In capitalist America, the market controls you.
They're crap to use. I mean, they're *useless* for any serious amount of data input, have you ever tried writing a letter on one? and a PDA or smart phone is more useful for displaying data because *it fits in a pocket*...
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You want a serious computer, today, it *must* have a keyboard, otherwise it's a data display device.
For those who don't want to carry a PDA, camera, a laptop and a phone, Nokia have the Communicator devices, everything in one.
Big:
http://www.europe.nokia.com/nokia/0,,54106,00.htm
Small:
http://www.europe.nokia.com/nokia/0,6771,77854,00
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At least if PDAs are losing to tablets, I haven't seen evidence of this.
It is more true that PDAs are losing to converged devices, but I think that's only half the story. What I think really is happening is that PDAs are being bracketed by laptops on one end and converged/feature rich phones on the other. Everybody who might use a PDA is almost certainly carrying a laptop and a phone that if it isn't "converged", it is practically so in all but name.
Personally, I don't think either fits the true PDA niche, which is about form factor. A true PDA is larger than any reasonable phone would be, but fits in your shirt pocket without stretching it or making it sag. To some degree the PDA manufacturers have brought this on themselves, blurring their market niche by making the PDAs more desktop like in their power; WinCE bears a lot of the blame for this. It's the classic tendency to want to blur your market position to get more sales. You pick up a few sales on the edges, at the cost of losing clarity as to why the customer should buy your product in the first place.
My sense is that the 200-600 PDA market is in fact doomed, because the marginal value of the PDA once you are carrying a laptop and featureful phone is small. However it doesn't mean there is zero value in the PDA. It follows that PDA prices have to drop. If I were to imagine the successful PDA device of 2010, it'd cost about $100 in todays terms, and by design would complement your phone and laptop, having easy to use wireless connectivity to them. Connectivity exists today, but it is extremely awkward. Microsoft's bluetooth is positively dreadful from a user's perspective. The question is whether PDA prices will reach that point before the buyers have completely abandoned the form factor.
There are two additional survival scenarios to consider. The first would be specialized devices, such as a GPS/PDA or perhaps some follow on to the video iPod. These are cases where usage makes a phone form factor less attractive. The second possibility is that a truly superior PDA may appear and revitalize the market, although this is a long shot. What I think we've learned by watching the music player market is that design and connectivity matter. Sure lots of people bought MP3 players before the iPod, but the iPod actually drove the expansion of the market, rather than cannibalizing it. It's not impossible to imagine a video iPod/PDA becoming a must-have item.
Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
I'm right there with you. I've got a high-end Palm and an mid-range Axim. I've tried unsuccessfully to use both to get myself organized. My cell phone holds all the contact information I need on a daily basis. Since entering anything in an electronic calendar that requires handwring recognition (or numerous taps on a virtual keyboard) is slow, the only entries in my calendar were recurring things I remembered anyway (weekly team meetings, martial arts class schedule, etc). The important stuff to jot down (oil change on Thursday, doctor on Tuesday) never got written down, so I was always forgetting. I tried to use it as an electronic shopping list, and failed. In the end, my Axim became a way to play games in boring meetings.
Then I moved to some $0.25 mini spiral-bound notebooks from Staples with a bullet-type space pen. It's tiny and light-weight, so it's always with me. Lists get written down immediately. When I'm done shopping, that page is torn out and thrown away. An upcoming schedule page at the front keeps me organized, as does a simple to-do list. When pages fill up or are no longer needed, they're torn out and tossed. When the notebook is empty, I spent another $0.25 to replace it. It's going to take me a long time to reach the level of electronic PDA cost with this system, and I've never been more organized.
Been using a PDA for years. Read books, play games, keeps photos, my emails, phone numbers, personal notes, date reminders ... It is a part of my life really. Use it everyday. One thing it doesnt need it a damn phone. Im already around too many phones (most times i dont even bother answering my phone @ home. more bother than what it is worth.)
I will be upgrading when im inclined (to a model around $500-$600 CAD), and i guess with HP going out, that is one less model i need to be concerned with researching when i do decide to purchase. I highly recommend a PDA to anyone who enjoys any of what i mentioned above, cept for the phone thing, if you *must* have a phone, then you will have to sacrifice some things in the name of communication.
Amazing, I've just been through the same kind of epiphany. I've got my iBook and Treo with me constantly, but a couple of weeks ago found myself floundering with my todo's and whatnot. While syncing is no problem, I really didn't feel I had a Birds Eye View. Since I'm a project manager basically hired out to customers, I have an extremely heterogenous workload. Like many, I went the GTD -> 43Folders (link in parent post) -> Hipster PDA (3x5 index cards).
I liked the templates I found referenced at 43Folders, especially those at DIYPlanner http://www.diyplanner.com/. BUT, I've whittled it down to a week template, and a blank template that covers everything else.
The result? Pure goodness! An empty inbox, a few contexts, preemptive rather than reactive management. And all in two weeks. For the first time in a long time I'm facing a weekend without catchup work.
I love my Treo, but it has been completely displaced by pen and paper + Mail.app + iCal.
Simplicity rules.
The interesting question is this: what is the difference between what people want and what people need.
Answer this wrong, and you fail to get the customer on the all important upgrade treadmill.
Keyboards are a trade off. What you give up is the ratio of PDA size to screen. A PDA that is smaller is better. A PDA with a bigger screen is better. It therefore follows that the ideal PDA is all screen, and a keyboard PDA will never be ideal.
On the other hand, a keyboarded PDA has the following advantage: it's easy to learn. A few minutes in the store, and you're as good as you're ever going to be on the thing. And therein lies the problem: is that good enough? Having used both keyboard-less and keyboarded PDAs, I'd say that for the answer is no. I'm not saying that's true for everyone, but it is certainly true for many. I'd be interested to know if many people who got used to Graffitti in the Palm days actually prefer the keyboard after a few months. I'm sure some do, but most people I know who were palm enthusiasts don't.
I think the problem is this: people don't go into a store to buy a keyboarded PDA. They go in to buy a PDA, then choose keyboarded ones over keyboardless ones because they are beginner friendly. However, this doesn't mean that they're necessarily happier after eighteen months than if they'd gone without a keyboard. If the keyboard is a limiting factor in their PDA experience, those people will probably go converged, accepting an even more limited keyboard because they don't perceive the PDA functions as having much value. They might forgo PDA functions altogether.
What I'm trying to say is just because a feature is popular it doesn't automatically follow that it's good for the market.
Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
But when devices converge, and you get one thing that is a cell phone, and a camera, and an MP3 player, and a GPS/mapping/directions device, and it manages and hotsyncs your email and address book and lets you edit them, then how can you really say which category of device "won" and which ones "died?" Is it based on the existence of a pen for input that truly defines the PDA? Is it based on whether you end up buying the device at an office supply store or a cell-phone store? Is it based on which predecessor device the new device looks the most like?
I don't think PDA functionality is going away, it's either being subsumed or else subsuming the functions of other devices. I think that when functionality is integrated, arguing over which previously separate set of functionality "won" and which "died" is just pointless semantic quibbling.
Can anyone tell me how to set my sig on Slashdot?
about damn time. my newton is starting to show its age. now the industry can move on to something *new* and finally come up with a replacement for it.
- Entertaining Bits from the Ancient Kernel Tree
Agreed. Three days ago I got fed up with the failing handwriting recognition of my old Palm Vx, Wednesday I bought a brand-new T|X (I was going to buy it with this year's tax refund but I was pushed beyond the point of endurance).
I want something that I can put in my pant's pocket. With long battery life. With a good display. That doesn't crash.
I don't want something with a cell phone, it will violate the size issue and also gives me a single point of failure depriving me of two devices if one fails or the unit is lost. I don't want an MP3 player in it, the fidelity will suck and it will suck more memory that I don't want to give over to it. I don't want Bluetooth, I don't want WiFi (it can't get onto my home network because of my security restrictions). I definitely don't want a digital camera as I'd like to do some DoD consulting at some point.
And I don't want something from HP/Compaq: two B companies that merged to form a bigger B company (except their servers, I like Compaq servers).
Sorry, I've been using Palm Pilots for over a decade and will not give it up until they pry my cold dead fingers from around it.
When you sympathize with stupidity, you start thinking like an idiot.