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Report Blasts "Peak Oil" Theory
Rei writes "Today, the Cambridge Energy Research Associates released a report dismissing the Peak Oil theory, suggesting that world oil production will continue to increase for the next 24 years, and then only level into a plateau. The report, which suggests that world reserves are enough to last 122 years at our current rate of consumption, also blasts Peak Oil theorists for repeatedly making unscientific predictions and then shifting them whenever their predictions fail to materialize."
Does anyone know who they really speak for? Do they have an agenda?
And, if our demand for oil increases?
Oh, I see. They assume our demand for oil will never increase. The developing world's demand for oil will never increase. China's demand for oil will never increase.
I'm usually not this blunt, but this seems like a good time: are the authors of this report FUCKING IDIOTS?
Alternate energy sources and fuel conservation are a good idea under any conditions.
You are so boring that when I see you my feet go to sleep.
How long it will take for people to blast this as Industry fallacy.
I say there's been so much doom-and-gloom about oil, every prediction I can remember about oil running out has been proven wrong time and time again. As our technology increases, we will find ways to get more oil out of existing locations and find new ones. Hmm. Go figure.
Hell, in 1879 Edison invented the light bulb. Who would have thought after 100+ years, the only thing a house from 1890 and 2006 would have in common is a lightbulb? And now the idustry is changing with LED bulbs for just about everything these days. I bet the next advancement doesn't take 100 years.
In oil, there's money. And a ton of it. So, advancement will happen much faster. We will use it more efficiently and get it from places we never thought possible.
I'm not seeing the incentive for an energy company to pretend peak oil doesn't exist.
In fact, the scarcer oil seems, the higher the price goes, and the more money the oil companies make.
Toronto-area transit rider? Rate your ride.
In other words:
"I don't like what they're saying. Is there a way we can slur them with a phony conflict-of-interest implication or some other kind of ad hominem? Dealing with arguments on their merits is too hard."
In other words, people who would actually KNOW....are you implying that environmentalists wouldn't have a bias as well?
Steve
Sic gorgiamus allos subjectatos nunc
I will believe this when I hear that the oil companies have built enough new refinery capacity to process all this oil for the next 14 years. Let them put their money where their mouth is. If the oil companies actually believed that peak oil were not the case, they would be building capacity so they could sell all that they could pump. Instead, we hear about limited refinery capacity. Believe me, a refinery can make lots of money if there is lots of crude feeding it. I hope they reveal all the facts behind their assertions in a traceable form since available capacity in oil fields is always held pretty close by the companies that own them. It sounds to me like propaganda since the US finally has reacted to the price shocks that precede peak oil and if we give up SUVs etc. it could really rain on the oil company parade. There is a lot of money to be made by the current glut/shortage mentality. Let the glut make people insensitive to the cost of their actions and then collect lots of money with a shortage from the inflexible deamand that results. Also, read another view which challenges some of their assumptions.
Looking at that chart, the only difference I can see between their line and the one they are "debunking" is that their line wobbles for a while before the downtrend is clear.
Both theories look equally valid, as presented, and both have pretty much the same implications, with a 20 year time difference. Short term thinkers are the only ones that will be impressed by this.
The "Peak Oil" theory describes the effects of new technology as well - the only thing that new technology that does is put off the "Peak" a little longer (and uses up R&D resources that could've been directed toward a sustainable energy infrastructure).
Unless we discover a source of oil that is infinitely-renewing (and renewed in a time period that is useful to our society), we _will_ eventually hit the "Peak Oil" doom-and-gloom scenario. It's inevitable no matter what kind of oil-recovery technology keeps on getting developed.