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Report Blasts "Peak Oil" Theory
Rei writes "Today, the Cambridge Energy Research Associates released a report dismissing the Peak Oil theory, suggesting that world oil production will continue to increase for the next 24 years, and then only level into a plateau. The report, which suggests that world reserves are enough to last 122 years at our current rate of consumption, also blasts Peak Oil theorists for repeatedly making unscientific predictions and then shifting them whenever their predictions fail to materialize."
Does anyone know who they really speak for? Do they have an agenda?
And, if our demand for oil increases?
Oh, I see. They assume our demand for oil will never increase. The developing world's demand for oil will never increase. China's demand for oil will never increase.
I'm usually not this blunt, but this seems like a good time: are the authors of this report FUCKING IDIOTS?
Alternate energy sources and fuel conservation are a good idea under any conditions.
You are so boring that when I see you my feet go to sleep.
How long it will take for people to blast this as Industry fallacy.
I say there's been so much doom-and-gloom about oil, every prediction I can remember about oil running out has been proven wrong time and time again. As our technology increases, we will find ways to get more oil out of existing locations and find new ones. Hmm. Go figure.
Hell, in 1879 Edison invented the light bulb. Who would have thought after 100+ years, the only thing a house from 1890 and 2006 would have in common is a lightbulb? And now the idustry is changing with LED bulbs for just about everything these days. I bet the next advancement doesn't take 100 years.
In oil, there's money. And a ton of it. So, advancement will happen much faster. We will use it more efficiently and get it from places we never thought possible.
...so now we have 122 years to procrastinate finding a solution our limited fueld supply rather than 24 years...
H.E. Mohamed Bin Dhaen Al Hamli, Minister of Energy, UAE and President of the OPEC Conference (2007), David Crane, President & CEO, NRG Energy, Incorporated, David J. O'Reilly, Chairman & CEO, Chevron Corporation
John G. Rice, Vice Chairman of GE, President & CEO, GE Infrastructure, John W. Rowe, Chairman, President & CEO, Exelon Corporation, Charles W. Shivery, Chairman, President & CEO, Northeast Utilities
Neil H. Smith, CEO, InterGen, Jeff Sterba, Chairman, President & CEO, PNM Resources, Rex W. Tillerson, Chairman and CEO, ExxonMobil Corporation
Jake S. Ulrich, Executive Director, Centrica plc, Don Voelte, Managing Director & CEO, Woodside Energy Ltd, Theo H. Walthie, Business Group President, Dow Chemical Company
Daniel Yergin, CERA Chairman
H.E. Mohamed Bin Dhaen Al Hamli, Minister of Energy, UAE and President of the OPEC Conference (2007), David Crane, President & CEO, NRG Energy, Incorporated
David J. O'Reilly, Chairman & CEO, Chevron Corporation, John G. Rice, Vice Chairman of GE, President & CEO, GE Infrastructure
John W. Rowe, Chairman, President & CEO, Exelon Corporation, Charles W. Shivery, Chairman, President & CEO, Northeast Utilities
Neil H. Smith, CEO, InterGen, Jeff Sterba, Chairman, President & CEO, PNM Resources, Rex W. Tillerson, Chairman and CEO, ExxonMobil Corporation, Jake S. Ulrich, Executive Director, Centrica plc, Don Voelte, Managing Director & CEO, Woodside Energy Ltd, Theo H. Walthie, Business Group President, Dow Chemical Company, Daniel Yergin, CERA ChairmanH.E. Mohamed Bin Dhaen Al Hamli, Minister of Energy, UAE and President of the OPEC Conference (2007)
David Crane, President & CEO, NRG Energy, Incorporated David J. O'Reilly, Chairman & CEO, Chevron Corporation John G. Rice, Vice Chairman of GE, President & CEO, GE Infrastructur John W. Rowe, Chairman, President & CEO, Exelon Corporation
Charles W. Shivery, Chairman, President & CEO, Northeast Utilities Neil H. Smith, CEO, InterGen Jeff Sterba, Chairman, President & CEO, PNM Resources Rex W. Tillerson, Chairman and CEO, ExxonMobil Corporation
Jake S. Ulrich, Executive Director, Centrica plc Don Voelte, Managing Director & CEO, Woodside Energy Ltd. Theo H. Walthie, Business Group President, Dow Chemical Company
Daniel Yergin, CERA Chairman
I'm detecting an air of possible bias there. Not just is there no-one on the speaker list with an environmentalist bent, but most of the speakers apart from those employed by CERA are heads/employees of major oil/chemical companies.
No, Peak Oil has never predicted that we'd "run out".
They predict that the demand will outstrip the supply of cheap oil, forcing us to shift to more expensive supplies and creating shortages that drive the price beyond a reasonable means. They draw a standard set of supply and demand curves, and show where they cross. What's most interesting to me is that it's not the supply curve that's the issue -- it's the demand curve.
And they're less worried about cars than they are about what that steep rise in prices will do to all manufacturing and industry in the west.
I'm not seeing the incentive for an energy company to pretend peak oil doesn't exist.
In fact, the scarcer oil seems, the higher the price goes, and the more money the oil companies make.
Toronto-area transit rider? Rate your ride.
"CERA was acquired by IHS Energy in 2004. . . . Some of the company's largest clients include international energy companies, governments, utilities, and financial institutions."
http://www.answers.com/topic/cambridge-energy-rese arch-associates
"IHS is one of the leading global providers of critical technical information, decision-support tools, and related services to customers in the energy, defense, aerospace, construction, electronics, and automotive industries. We have developed a comprehensive collection of technical information that is highly relevant to the industries we serve ."
http://www.ihs.com/About-IHS/
Make love, not reality television.
In other words:
"I don't like what they're saying. Is there a way we can slur them with a phony conflict-of-interest implication or some other kind of ad hominem? Dealing with arguments on their merits is too hard."
Huh? Hubbert's peak said that production in the UNITED STATES would peak in the 1970's, and decline thereafter. And he was right(he said global peak would come about 50 years after the peak in the US). Outside of Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico there aren't very many huge oil producers in the United States anymore.
There used to be a lot more, but they ran out of oil. In fact, take a look around Western PA to see what devastation running out of oil can wrought on communities. Oil City is an aptly named example.
Monstar L
Even this report is rather pessimistic.
Technologies that exist and are already economical at current oil prices:
* Coal liquifaction (we have several hundred years of coal in the US alone)
* Thermal depolymerization (~$70/barrel from almost any organic waste).
* Bitumen (huge Canadian deposits)
* Ethanol (both corn and sugarcane)
* Biodiesel (soybeans)
Borderline technologies or technologies that exist but require higher oil prices to be cost efficient:
* Cellulose-derived ethanol
* Farmed plankton biodiesel
* Oil shale
* Methane hydrates/clathrates
* Direct Fischer-Tropsh synthesis from any CO (or even CO2, indirectly more lossy), and H2 (which can come from H2O). I.e., as long as there is power (do you see any "peak electricity" theorists out there? Not many), there can be oil (prices vary depending on component sources). As for H2:
** Electrolysis from any electricity source
** Nuclear power thermolysis
** Direct solar H2 production
** Farmed bacterial H2 production
* Direct utilization of H2 (or other fuels produced from common ingredients + "power") in vehicles.
As for those who say, "Well, sure, there are alternatives, but we don't have time to switch," this isn't true either. It takes much less time to bring a new field or plant online than it takes to drain an oilfield. About the worst time to bring an oilfield online is about 10 years, in the case of a remote field in an inhospitable location with no existing infrastructure. Expanding an existing field into less economical deposits can be as little as a year or two.
Peak Oil is a nonsense theory, and deserves to be exposed for what it is. There've been dozens of predictions since Hubbert, and not a one has been correct.
Rock Us, Dukakis.
To prevent people from getting serious about switching away from oil, of course.
They want the current supply of oil to seem scarce so prices are high, but they want the hypothetical, future supply to seem infinite so that you never have to stop using oil.
Which is pretty much what we have now. The price of oil goes up based on fears about Middle East stability, damage to refineries on the Gulf Coast from Katrina, and so on, threatening the immediate supply. On the other hand, off-shore oil deposits and ambiogenesis promising that the oil supply will never actually run out. They make massive profits, but everyone still feels comfortable with their oil-based ICEs.
The enemies of Democracy are
Good troll.
Disruption of the gulf stream - not predicted to happen just yet, so this prediction hasn't been refuted.
Deep freeze in Europe - same. That's like saying that the theory about the sun gobbling up the earth when it becomes a red giant is wrong because it hasn't happened yet.
Desertification of the US midwest - underway. I live in Alberta (Canada), and we expect to run out of glacial runoff in the next 15-20 years, leaving our river and main source of water bone dry for half the year. On top of that, the climate is getting dryer, and the water shelf is dropping. These are known to most residents here.
US crop failures - we'll see. Technology is improving all the time to offset this. Its happened before, though.
More frequent/severe Atlantic hurricanes (were there any this year?) - Nope, but again they expect a trend towards stronger storms, and last year it was certainly evident.
Inundation of coastal cities - Once again this is something that will happen down the road. No one thought we'd be under water in 2006. And we aren't. So the predictions are correct thus far.
Decline of coral reefs - underway. Most of the reefs affected by El Nino (Belize's great barrier reef in particular) are almost completely dead. Scuba diving was a lot more interesting about 15 years ago.
Disruption of Antarctic ice shelves - underway. There has been massive breakups of ice shelves in the last few years. Actually the predictions were mostly wrong; this is happening faster than we thought.
Pandemic skin cancer outbreaks (remember the ozone crisis?) - are you disputing the ozone hole now? That's a separate issue, but one that governments at least took significant steps towards solving around 15 years ago. The hole is larger this year than ever before, btw.
Jeremy
I will believe this when I hear that the oil companies have built enough new refinery capacity to process all this oil for the next 14 years. Let them put their money where their mouth is. If the oil companies actually believed that peak oil were not the case, they would be building capacity so they could sell all that they could pump. Instead, we hear about limited refinery capacity. Believe me, a refinery can make lots of money if there is lots of crude feeding it. I hope they reveal all the facts behind their assertions in a traceable form since available capacity in oil fields is always held pretty close by the companies that own them. It sounds to me like propaganda since the US finally has reacted to the price shocks that precede peak oil and if we give up SUVs etc. it could really rain on the oil company parade. There is a lot of money to be made by the current glut/shortage mentality. Let the glut make people insensitive to the cost of their actions and then collect lots of money with a shortage from the inflexible deamand that results. Also, read another view which challenges some of their assumptions.
The way I see it, whether we suck the world's oil reserves dry quickly or we suck them dry slowly, we're still going to suck them dry. There's more profit associated with large demand than small demand, however. Indeed, for a fixed supply, the price vs. demand curve is anything but linear. Furthermore, the time value of money indicates that a given sum of money is more valuable the sooner you have it. If we proactively shift energy demand away from oil, this lengthens the timespan across which we'll deplete the world's oil reserves. This will reduce demand, reduce average prices, and the money will arrive later (and therefore not be as valuable).
Thus, oil companies have strong economic reasons for wanting to keep demand high. They want to maximize their total profit.
Peak oil and alternative energy proponents seek to move energy demand away from oil, either by increasing efficiency or by drawing energy from other sources. Either approach reduces the demand for oil, which is what the petroleum industry wants to avoid.
Program Intellivision!
I wonder why...
0 5cavallo
Exxon-Mobil announces that PEAK OIL is coming in 5 years:
http://www.thebulletin.org/article.php?art_ofn=mj
Mind you, this is a major oil corporation, not some environmentalist "whacko" group...
--- Grow a pair, liberals... stop letting the Republicans bully you!
Looking at that chart, the only difference I can see between their line and the one they are "debunking" is that their line wobbles for a while before the downtrend is clear.
Both theories look equally valid, as presented, and both have pretty much the same implications, with a 20 year time difference. Short term thinkers are the only ones that will be impressed by this.
http://www.energybulletin.net/ and in particular: http://www.energybulletin.net/22442.html
6 47
5 16
http://www.theoildrum.com/ and in particular: http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/14/18285/
Whether we will ever exceed current production levels is an entirely open and empirical question. Even if we do, that doesn't prove that "Peak Oil" is "wrong"... just that we haven't hit it yet. The evidence I read suggests we're approaching the top.
Read this too:
http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2006/11/2/204936/
http://www.energybulletin.net/22213.html
The "Peak Oil" theory describes the effects of new technology as well - the only thing that new technology that does is put off the "Peak" a little longer (and uses up R&D resources that could've been directed toward a sustainable energy infrastructure).
Unless we discover a source of oil that is infinitely-renewing (and renewed in a time period that is useful to our society), we _will_ eventually hit the "Peak Oil" doom-and-gloom scenario. It's inevitable no matter what kind of oil-recovery technology keeps on getting developed.
Speaking as someone who deploys those newer and better technologies (I specialise in extended reach and horizontal drilling, much of which uses advanced sand management, expandable screening and/ or electrical submersible pumps, drilled with minimally invasive drilling fluids, tight control of equivalent circulating density and high-precision geological optimisation of well placement), what restricts the impact of those "newer and better technologies" are 2-fold:
- many reservoirs have poor to crap permeability characteristics, which reduces maximum (let alone optimum) flow rates, and severely impacts the economics of projects. That's inherent to the rock that the oil is in, and is only improved as the square root (approximately) of the pressure differential that you put across the reservior. At best.
- most new discoveries are small. A couple of hundred million barrels in place, maybe 40~60 million produceable. That's 5 to 8 days of consumption at todays rates. Which means that you can't justify the cost of pipelines and infrastructure to produce the stuff.
Look at, if you care, the "Last Great Hope" oil province of the late 1990's - the Falklands province. Review it's history - a significant war fought over it's control delayed exploration drilling for a decade and a half. There's a basin, source rocks (second best in the world), and reservoirs of moderate quality; tectonics and timing of thermal events within the tectonics are good for producing accumulations, and indeed accumulations have been found. But they're not big enough to justify building the necessary platform-based infrastructure, and the distance to shore is too long to flow the oil in a pipeline (we're back to the back-pressure as anything flows ; it all adds up from the valve at the surface separator all the way back through the pipes to the reservoir-completion interface). Net result - a "stranded" oil province. OK - that's one province I've had a professional interest in. Oddly enough, that's a common set of problems. Same goes for the potential stuff in the Arctic outside Alaska : no route to market, and building the necessary railway lines and pipelines across Siberian tundra is a 20-year project (don't suggest using the - - (sorry for my spelling, my atrocious Russian is getting rusty) line - it's stuffed to capacity already (as anyone who's used it would know) and it doesn't get within 2Mm of the necessary areas.) with a very uncertain prospect of success at the end.
Some of the biggest components of the "anticipated reserves" part of the future oil extrapolations are based on finding whole provinces with similar productivity to their geological counterparts elsewhere in the world. But there is no (zero, nil, zilch) well control on a lot of these anticipations. It's an easy mistake to make - I tried to get involved in the Falklands drilling campaign (first job application I'd written for 4 years), on that basis. Thought there was a big potential. Busted after the second well (of 6 in the campaign). East Greenland is "booked" as a huge gas province, extrapolating from the geological and thermal history of the Norwegian coast; zero well control. Laptev sea is "booked" as a light oil and gas province; one well and only 14000km of seismic. East Siberian-Chukchi Seas similarly booked; zero wells and 7000km. Sea of Okhotsk, several pinprick wells with no discoveries on the best prospects from the very limited seismic. Sea of Japan I haven't received data on, yet; some political difficulties over exploration. Sea of Bohai has proven prospects, but similar political difficulties.
You can look at models of reserves projected, but you've got to read the definitions of "proven", "likely" etc that go for the different classes of "reserve". As Shell discovered publicly a couple of years ago (and everyone else knew privately), a reserve isn't a reserve until it's been drilled, tested and produced. And e
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