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iPhone Faces Uncertain Market
48 hours have passed since Steve Jobs's MacWorld keynote and the reality distortion field is beginning to wear off. Lists of the drawbacks of the announced iPhone are sprouting all over the Net (and there is the occasional defense by true believers). Now narramissic writes, "The iPhone may be poised to take over the high-end cell phone market, but is it a market worth taking? Not if an InStat survey from July is any indication: Of 1,800 consumers surveyed, just 21 had spent more than $400 for a cell phone. Prices for the iPhone, admittedly more of a handheld computer than a cell phone, start at $499 for the 4G-byte version with a required two-year contract with Cingular. So, is Apple pricing it right? Analysts quoted in this article seem to think Apple's going to have a hard time getting the 1% of market share that Jobs called for."
That most people won't spend over $400 on a phone because there aren't any phones worth spending that much on? The high end market may be small... but there's no reasoning given for not spending so much... maybe it's just because nothing (until now, IMO) has been worth the extra $$?
If you are looking for an iPod and a phone, or if the phone is a bonus, the price may be worth it to you.
I'm not familiar with the specs of the iPhone, but it isn't as simple as "this is a really expensive phone."
Except for ending slavery, the Nazis, communism, & securing American independence, war has never solved anything.
Just remember what everybody was saying about the iPod when it first came out. You may not like them, but I'd say Apple has been pretty on the mark over the last 5 years or so...
Taking guns away from the 99% gives the 1% 100% of the power.
If you look at Cingular's current plans for blackberrys, their voice and data packages start at about $80 per month. You can bet they will charge at least that for the iPhone service, if not more. even if it is just $80 a month, you are going to wind up paying $2520 over two years (including $600 for the phone), and that's before fees and taxes.
So that $600 price tag is really closer to $3000.
If Apple is really smart, they've already locked Cingular to a reasonable cell plan. They might be able to capture the high-end market with the iPhone, but without cheaper plans, they will never get the majority of people.
Think about it. Most people who buy phones just want a phone that works. That's not the market Apple's going for. They're going for the guys that keep upgrading their expensive iPods with more expensive and newer iPods. Now, they'll get the latest "iPod" but it'll have a phone built-in too. If you look at the sales of the most expensive iPods, you'll see that there's more than enough people there to get Jobs' 1% market share that he wants out of the gates. Don't underestimate the loyalty that the Apple brand garners. It's much like Nintendo's. They'll buy whatever is the latest and greatest.
AirSpeak - http://itunes.com/apps/AirSpeak
1. Apple releases iPhone 1.0 (ApplePhone after Cisco gets through with them?) in 4GB and 8GB sizes
2. Apple Fanboys will buy this version because "17 50 7074||y ru|35 4nd w1|| pwn 7h3 m4rk37 dud3!"
3. Apple will release version 2.0 with way more storage (1.8" hard disk or SSD) for half the price. This will happen in about 18 months, But not actually ship for another 4 - 6 months after it is announced. (so as not to piss off Cingular)
4. Joe Sixpack will buy that version in droves. Fanboys who have version 1.0 rush to upgrade because "17 50 7074||y ru|35 4nd w1|| pwn 7h3 m4rk37 dud3!"
5. Profit!
This is my opinion. To make sure you don't steal it, it's covered by the DMCA.
Businesses do.
Except for gadget geeks, probably 80% of the Blackberrys, Treos, etc are purchased by companies for employees or by business owners.
Apple is hoping to extend that market by taking a typical consumer/parent who is about to buy a $300 iPod anyway and convincing them spend another $200 for a phone that has unique internet capability. The reasoning behind this is that a person who is ready to by a $300 device is far more likely to spring for a $500 device.
The typical phone buyer considers the phone to be almost disposable. If you come into a store to buy a $50 RAZR after rebate, you're not going to get them to spring for $499. So Apple is taking advantage of the iPod buzz to upsell iPod consumers (the average iPod buyer has already owned 3) into iPhones.
This is sales 101. That's why half the people who show up to buy a Toyota Corolla drive away with a Prius. ("Hmm... $5000 more and I have a hybrid AND get bluetooth and that neato screen")
On the flip side, they'll get businesses to buy some too. Enterprises will stick with Blackberries because they use Exchange and like the security aspects of the device, but there are plenty of mid-level managers with purchase authority to spend $500-600.
Conformity is the jailer of freedom and enemy of growth. -JFK
Well, that's more than 1%...
Exactly. The key complaint about the iPod was that it was too expensive. That no one would buy one when they could have a Creative r579X250 or whatever instead. i'm amazed that these complaints KEEP showing up. Apple is in the business of selling people hardware/software combos at a premium. it is WHAT THEY DO. The powerbook and ibook lines were both much more expensive than the direct competition, but they sold poorly when the software/hardware mix was diluted or uncompelling (early/mid nineties) and exceptionally well when the mix was more distinct
The iPhone will be the same way. This isn't apple fanboyism, this is grudging respect. look at the iPod. look at the cheif complaints about mobile phones in general. Not the slashdot complaints, but the complaints among the predominance of users.
1. Poor UI
2. Poor or shoddy design.
3. inability to use features on the phone, or limitations on the interoperability of those features.
Apple fixes these problems for a living. They fix them and then establish the solution at a high pricepoint, and people pay for it. No. it's not going to be unlocked, it's not going to run linux, it's probably only going to support limited software development, if any at all. But people will buy it, at least 10 million people, if not more.
...and the iPhone is exactly what I want. But I'm not buying it. It's cool, but it's not $500 cool.
/. say they won't pay, since in many cases the readership seems to want stuff for cheap or free (I know I am generalising, so don't take this personally). The market is not about the sort of people who say they love a Mac, but wouldn't even fork out for a Dell because it costs too much. The market is about people who are willing to a price for a well designed product, that works well, looks good and is easy to use.
Well I am not going to make any analysis based on what people on
Jumpstart the tartan drive.
I think Apple isn't all that interested in 'taking over' the high-end cellphone market as much as they're interested in defining a new category of communications device that's not thought of as a cellphone.
This thing is just a first stab, and it's being aimed at the high-end cellphone market, if only because that's a market that exists, and to communicate, you've got to have people to communicate with. But perhaps Apple's betting that, though it may make phone calls, the gadget of the future won't be though of as a phone.
Posted from my Android phone. Oh, I can change this? There, that's better...
You mean the FUD campaign initiated by frightened competitors is flaring up. This story makes it seem like everyone is suddenly deciding not to buy the iPhone after "coming to their senses." Hardly the case. This thing will sell like crazy, and the fact Slashdot is posting a story saying it won't just means it will. Remember the iPod? The iPod mini? Slashdot said they'd fail.
"Sufferin' succotash."
"For all practical purposes you can expect no 3rd party apps."
Am I the only one that thinks Apple skipped shooting themselves in the foot and just shot themselves in the head with this one? The iPhone seems ripe with endless 3rd party app possibilities, it's counter-intuitive to not allow developers to create apps for it.
This isn't a iPod where it plays music and plays it well so there's no need for 3rd party apps, this is a convergence device that should have software that takes advantage of all it's functions. After all, what's the point of a fancy menu if you can't add anything to it?
Far as I know the iPhone will be the only $500+ cellphone that's doesn't have 3rd party apps. All the other ones I can recall are PocketPCs or Blackberries that allow 3rd party apps.
I think I speak for everyone when I say: Apple, get a clue, allow 3rd party apps. I'll admit it, I'm part of the 99% that has never bought a $400+ cellphone, but I have a PocketPC, cellphone and iPod and I was considering replacing all three, even my PSP and digital camera would likely get a lot less use depending on photo quality and 3rd party games. But hearing that there's no 3rd party apps is giving me serious reservations to the point that I'd have to say no, I will most likely not pay $500+ for a device knowing I'm locked into using only what few apps that are included.
Anyone else who considered buying a iPhone having second thoughts upon hearing there will be no 3rd party apps?
my karma will be here long after I'm gone
Actually, I've come to the conclusion that this is impossible, that the backlash from consumers against the iPhone and money lost from 3rd party developers would be too great to not allow 3rd party applications.
I simply can not believe any company would be this stupid in this day and age. It's like coming out with a game system but not allowing 3rd party developers to make games for it. What if the PSP or DS only ran games made by Sony or Nintendo? You'd have what, 5 titles each maybe? How many millions of dollars would they lose?
They're trying to corner the top 1% of gadget geeks, those select few willing to blow $500 on a glorified cellphone. Gadget geeks will not be happy using only the few apps that are included. Apple will be forced to sweeten the pot, and doing means millions of dollars of profit in licensing fees.
I only have this to say: if Apple doesn't allow 3rd party developers on their cellphone than I'm sure either Microsoft or Google will.
my karma will be here long after I'm gone