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The End of .Mac and Google Apps?
mattnyc99 writes "In his weekly tech column for Popular Mechanics, Glenn Derene predicts that everyone will have a home server to network their house within 10 years—rendering Apple's .Mac accounts and Google's productivity software useless. As prices for products like HP's MediaSmart Server drop and as processing power becomes more pervasive, Derene says, 'you'll ultimately need a centralized server—that high-powered traffic cop—to coordinate the non-stop exchange of information between your new multitude of devices.'"
It's called Plan 9 from Bell Labs.
Those who don't understand Plan 9 are doomed to reinvent it, poorly.
Brought to you by the shameless plug for HP dept.
At the bottom of the
I have a server at home, with over a TB of storage. I still use most of google's apps, especially Gmail.
... we're all dead. -John Maynard Keynes
I hope they don't plan on this server having a web-based interface to the outside world, because right now many ISPs (including mine, Comcast) forbid people from running web servers, and most actually block access to port 80 on their customer's lines.
I'm hoping that will change, I hope I can use my internet line for whatever (legal) stuff I want in the future...
I also hope my upload speed becomes as fast as my download speed, instead of the current 768kbps compared to 6.6mbps, but thats another story...
Hmm, the summary says we'll have home servers "rendering Apple's .Mac accourendering Apple's .Mac accounts and Google's productivity
software uselessnts and Google's productivity software
useless".
But TFA's only mention of Google or .Mac says:
which is not the same thing at all.
ccalam - acoustic versions of new songs.
This basically assumes google and apple are going to be sitting on their hands for the next decade not changing their products in the slightest.
Obviously as things change they'll evolve their services to meet demand.
MABASPLOOM!
...that in 10 years time some ninety percent of current technology will be rendered useless.
Even in the future the main problem with this setup is reliablity. I have had a server in my home doing these functions for many years. However I would never rely upon it to be the same as a real internet server providing these services. When the power goes out at home, most of the time it will stay down until I get back home. I do agree that in the future we may not have to pay a premium to get 'business class' type access that we do today.
I have old copies of Popular Mechanics going back twenty years, and let's discuss some of their predictions. According to them:
* I have a landing pad built into the roof of my house for my flying car.
* When I need to get to Europe from New York, I take the subway to a special terminal that connects me to a train that shoots under the Atlantic at thousands of miles per hour in a vacuum.
* On the rare instances I don't take the super train, I take a Bell Osprey derivative shuttle to the local airport where I don't even need to get out of my seat, because it follows a track built into the shuttle and the airport and automatically zips me into my waiting hypersonic sub-orbital jetliner (which, for some reason, seems to go nowhere but Tokyo).
* I can fix my hot water heater by removing the broken heating element and replacing it with a new one from the hardware store. Possibly the most ridiculous prediction/claim of all.
I like their enthusiasm, and the pictures and ads are great, but I'm not quite ready to start shorting stock in companies based on a Popular Mechanics prediction.
With Google apps and such, you just need to log in and take care of your business. No need to worry about server updates, hacking, spam, etc. A home server takes a little effort for someone who knows how to run one, but can take a lot of time for someone unfamiliar with servers.
The major things i like about google's web based word app are:
1) it is someone else's responsibility to back it up, cluster it, load balance it, and improve it,
2) it is social, i can include other people in on my document edits easily,
3) i can effortlessly access it from anywhere, be it uni, work, home or a cafe.
Home based servers currently have none of the above, and until we get cheap at home clustering and easy ability to host apps on home adsl we still wont.
But what I'd like to know is how we're all going to be able to access these hundreds of Tbs of media from our ubiquitous home servers when we're out and about in our flying cars?
OMG!!! Ponies!!!
Let me be the first to say that Glenn literally pulled this assertion straight out of his ass.
.MAC (the two examples citied) not only provide value as a collaboration platform, but they are also extremely well designed, and cost effective for the business community. If anyone thinks that I'm going to plunk down 2K on an HP Media Server, and all the sudden declare my independence from Software as Service for the business purposes... well... you get the point - it's utter BS.
No one can argue against home media servers driving innovation into the household, especially around automation and media management - but to displace software as a service? GoogleApps? I don't even in the slightest see where these two things correlate.
GoogleApps and
Glenn literally did 2 things.
1. Plugged HP's products (successfully)
2. Showed how absolutely absurd some columists can be (successfully)
Lindsay Blanton
RadioReference.com
Why do I want an extra "hub" computer in my house when it's already a pain in the ass to keep a WEP-enabled wireless router working, and I actually know what I'm doing.
I'd rather let the guys at Google provide my word processor without my having to find room for another plug in my power strip. I've had enough DIY in my life. But y'all feel free.
It's bad enough that most people have their routers left at their default password, now they're going to have servers like that too...hmmmmm. >:)
Join the TWIT army now!
It's called "Windows Botnet Home Server Edition"
This article seems to be in the typical tradition of Slashdot sensationalism. HP bringing a new product to market that competes with Google's and Apple's products doesn't mean that one should automatically assume that older products become obsolete. HP's product doesn't solve the fundamental purpose of the other companies' applications. Google's and Apple's products are able to be used anywhere simply by logging into the web interface. This is the simplicity that people want. People have enough problems just from setting up their computers, so it is doubtful that within five, or even ten years, that people are going to want to manage a central home server. For better or worse, software as a service is something that big companies are pushing more and more. Despite technical or philosophical objections, its adoption will come down to one thing: whether a significant number of people believe that it increases their quality of life. Software as a service makes sense to a lot of people. Only their willingness pay for it will dictate how quickly it becomes popular.
I've been asking friends lately what they expect 10 years from now will be like for the average computer user. About ten of us have, after some long coffee breaks, decided that it'll be something like this:
:)
No one will buy desktop PCs. in 2017 everything will be similar to what we call a laptop today. Data won't be stored on the laptops. Some people will have servers at home, but these people will be eccentric folks like us that host our own web, mail, et cetera in 2007 -- the fringe users. Everyone else will store their data online somewhere. Bandwidth will be charged by the pound instead of flat rate, but it will be very afforadable -- copying a terabyte to home won't cause more than a second of consideration. People will still have workstation caliber desktops, but those will be specialized machines much as they are today, overpowered for a certain task. By 2017, ipv6 is finally mainstream but just barely. Mobile devices will have aggregated down into a single device-- music, cell, radio, visual-- everyone will have the same typical device they carry that does everything, and it will work well. By then, everything will be aware of your biostats if you let it, so your music can follow your general mood, et cetera. They won't be psychic, just dumbly intelligent. Other than that, we decided that technology will be a lot less visible-- as it gets good/small enough to start hiding away in things, so it shall. Presentation will lose its glamour for the most part, and homes will actually look less teched out like they did before the 80s rose.
I'd love to hear other people's imagination reply to these inevitably wrong projections
slashdot: where everyone yells sarcastic metaphors to themselves to understand the issue
For $599 Apple already makes the Home Server its called a Mac Mini and is way better a solution than this HP Ad that /. is promoting.
. I love the sound of burning women and screaming rubber....
An alternative to this is that the central 'router' contain almost everything - CPU(s), HDs, RAM - and then you have a variety of clients. So your PC becomes just a terminal, as does your 'phone'.
There would be three types of device: the 'server' (which most people would probably just think of as 'the PC'), terminals (anything capable of full IO with the server) and very lightweight devices like the fridge, which don't give you access to everything, but can now communicate.
I like this system because as soon as bandwidth is large enough to handle piping the graphics to your terminal, the need to shove all that processing power and storage into handheld devices and laptops disappears. Much simpler, and probably much cheaper in the end.
The problem with a home server is to keep it running. .Mac, Google Apps, spend a lot of time and money (well at least I really hope) to make sure their servers are running backed up and have plenty of fail over. For most people if they have a consumer friendly home server it will be all and good until it breaks then you are SOL all your years of collected pictures... Gone, your important stuff gone... And who is to blame for it yourself. .Mac and Google (I Hope) have trained administers with backup systems that keep them running and if a system crashes you data is still there. Also your data is available from anywhere where there is an internet connection. We are getting more and more mobile with computing laptops are common now for normal use, Cellphones, PDAs are getting more and more powerful we can access the internet from anywhere. With a Home Server we will need to set up correct permissions keep track of security updates if we want external access and with most broadband connections have a much smaller up stream the server will be very slow from a remote location.
This would have been a good idea 10 years ago, where most internet was Dialup and Slow and most people had Desktop that they did work from home, but today it is a case of too little to late. We don't want a server anymore We want someone else to have a server and us to have access to it, and not worry about maintaining it.
If something is so important that you feel the need to post it on the internet... It probably isn't that important.
One of the big reasons that I believe home based servers will triumph over hosted apps is the very same reason that they do in any organization -- security and privacy. Case in point, about 6 months ago after being a fan of Gmail for a long time I pulled the plug. Why? Reading the local newspaper one day I saw an article about how the courts have ruled that if your e-mail is stored on someone elses server they don't need a warrant for it. I'm not sure how universal this is, or if it was just in one particular jurisdiction, but that was enough to make me switch. I now run my own mail server.
Similarly the same goes for hosted apps. It's great they are backing it up, but remember, it only takes one rogue employee to sell your secrets to your competitor. If you are a business storing business-related documents on a hosted service you are at the mercy of the hosted company. You can say "it won't happen because of XYZ" all you want, but again it only takes one rogue employee working for the hosting company. Furthermore, if you are a public company or deal with sensitive information -- forget about it -- unless you want to be out of business tomorrow.
Centralized storage and data manipulation is the key -- whether that be in the home or the workplace. We are just now entering into this market and I think we are going to see some really good innovations come of it.
And, personally, yes I've tried out the Beta of Windows Home Server. My thoughts? I love it. It has a few features missing, but when it goes "gold" I plan on switching my home server over to it.
Someone needs to write a virus that silently installs a bit torrent client, uploads a whole bunch of torrents and lets me steal all of their media.
Lots of people are talking about all the technical reasons why everyone won't have a home server to replace online service and control their other devices, but how about the non-technical stuff. Like the fact that 99.9% of computer users have absolutely no clue what they're doing. They just send email and make text documents and spreadsheets. Setting up a home server, no matter how Apple-simple it gets, is a daunting task that frightens them even to think about. And coordinating it with all their other devices? Not likely. How about configuring it so you can access all your stuff from anywhere in the world? People would probably cease up and stop breathing. And there is no way, even for the most proficient of geeks, that any home user could provide themselves with as good of uptime as Google or Apple.
No sig for you. YOU GET NO SIG!
There are strong political and commercial interests who activily oppose such a vision. First, there are the telcoms and cable companies who want to be gatekeepers to people's email and maintain monopolies on other services as well. Try setting up an email server on a residential service, and getting it both to successfully send email without interference by your isp, and having your email messages "accepted" by existing services, regardless of whether you have domain keys setup on your dns, etc, and you will see some of these forces in action.
As for media servers that may feed media where you want it on demand. I imagine if the RIAA and similar gangs can secure root access to your shiny new internet connected media server, say through trussed computing, and control where you are allowed to listen to your own music, along with an automated billing service, maybe then they may promote it rather than activily oppose such a vision. I could imagine such gangs buying laws that state operating "unlicensed" media servers is "intent to infringe" or some other similar kind of nonsense.
Finally, the traditional media providers and a particular software monopoly prefer a captive internet "consumer" model, starting with asymetric speeds, cemented by restrictive use contracts and finding common interest with governmental desires for increasingly filtered services, whether for imagined security threats or for unpopular governments keeping tabs on restless populations. Home servers where people can be liberated as true publishers and equals as information producers, rather than reduced to mear consumers captive to external hosted sites for what may become an ever decreasing set of tolerated forms of expression and activities, is certainly not in their agenda.
I run a web server and for me it's part time. The sites are mostly my own real-world businesses and when I need to add, oh say, something new in the hppd.conf throu SSH it takes me a lot of remembering, lots of reading and calls to friends. AND everyone is going to have a server they have to maintain? I used to be a full time developer, 6 months pass and I can't remember how too.... how is my friend who can barly figure out how to restart their PC keep a "home" server running? Anyway...... I am going to my google homepage to read some real news.
I hate slashdot
"Because in ten years, everything that could benefit from a microchip inside will have a microchip inside. And that means that were all going to own a lot of computers. Your television? A computer. Your cable/IPTV box? A computer. Your cell phone/messaging device? Also a computer. Bedside clock? You guessed it: Itll be a computer, too."
Those things have been computers since at least ten years.
Except alarm clock, because turning them into computers would be utterly pointless, so it didn't happen.
That all this junk would be networked has also been predicted a long time ago, and it just doesn't make sense.
So I'm living 10 years in the future I guess. I have a home server with a registered domain - I get email directly, serve my personal web content such as photo albums, program in alarms that wake me up in the morning via a distributed music system, backup the laptops I use throughout my house, cache DNS and automatically scarf data I need for managing my finances - stock quotes etc off the web.
A couple of things are a bit kludgey because I don't have a truly static IP; but that is not too far in the future. Really the only downside with that is I have to send my email out through my ISP's SMTP rather than directly.
The advantages over Google etc. are essentially unlimited space (I have 2 TB online right now) and very very fast access to the content, and I have control over the features of my setup. The disadvantage is setting up a reliable backup strategy takes some time and effort.
A year ago I used a hosting service for many of these features, but snce Cablevision made it's Boost service available with unblocked ports and dynamic DNS I moved everything to my home server.
If the writer is even correct, then I hope manufacturers come out with Open and common protocols to sync any device to any storage server. Example: iPod is dependent on iTunes to sync properly and get all the music uploaded to it, Palm Piolts need the Palm Desktop, a Blackberry needs special software as do many cell phones. Much of this proprietary software only runs on Windows (or really well on Windows) exception being the iPod.
I'm a Mac user. But its dawned on me how reliant devices are on Windows to sync up and upload/download your information. Cell phones will be a heck of a lot more common in the future. Shoudn't I be able to store my voicemails, text messages etc on my own computer rather than the carrier's networks quickly, easily and cheaply? I've looked at getting a Blackberry but, frankly, if it doens't work well on my Mac where all my business contacts are stored, I'm not about to start using Windows (and buy a new computer have a G5 so can't dual boot) just to use a Blackberry.
Not while ISPs like Comcast get away with charging $60 to remove the 'you may not run a server' clause from their TOS. (I actually did call them to see how much that would cost. $40 a month for what I have, $100 a month for the EXACT SAME SERVICE but with servers allowed.)
I didn't think you lot would be interested in my dwarf porn searches.
Oh shit, did I just post that out loud?
liqbase
Obviously this idiot doesn't have broadband access from a US telecom (DSL) or cable company. Every single one of them explicitly forbid any sort of "server", and enforce it by blocking nearly every port from 1-1024.
My ISP, OptimumOnline, is a great example; for years I've been getting around their blocks by using high ports and/or ssh tunneling, but just last month they essentially NATted the whole network -- I can't ssh to my home box, no matter what port; Hell, I can't even ping the thing.
Learn from the mistakes of others. You won't live long enough to make them all yourself.
...unless Apple starts giving it away. Seriously. Between Google apps and XDrive I have everything .mac has for FREE. Even the zealots will come around.
Oh yeah, home servers, unless they are exposed to the Internet, do not give you the ability to access your data from anywhere there's connectivity. I dread to think what would happen in an Internet where you have home servers everywhere. Particularly home servers running WINDOWS. The only folks who would be happy in a situation like that would be Russian pr0n spammers.
Knowledge is power. Knowledge shared is power multiplied.