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2008, The Year of the Spaceship

DynaSoar writes "2008 Could be a the year of the Spaceship. Virgin Galactic intends to unveil White Knight 2 as well as Spaceship 2 during the next year, at this point planning for January. Burt Rutan, always reticent to comments on progress of any project, says nothing to support or contradict Virgin Galactic's announcement. However, the report states that Spaceship 2 is 50% complete and White Knight 2 is 60% complete. In addition, Virgin Galactic is considering using White Knight 2, or possible its successor White Knight 3, to put small satellites in orbit for a cost of US$3 million, less than half the current front runner in (projected) low cost orbital launches; SpaceX's Falcon at US$6.7 million. Tourism aside, this could be an extremely lucrative spin off of Virgin Galactic's original plans. If this turns out to be a profitable endeavor, the cost of tourism flights could drop significantly."

126 comments

  1. Year of the Spaceship? by JKSN17 · · Score: 5, Funny

    Is this the new 2.0 edition of the Chinese Calendar. Let me know when it's the year of the iPod.

    1. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by ByOhTek · · Score: 2, Insightful

      There's probably a "year of Linux on the desktop" joke to be made from that subject as well, followed up with the standard flames, counter flames, trolls, etc.

      Me, I'll wait for the year of the back-to-basics-keep-it-simple electronics, thanks.

      --
      Self proclaimed typo king, and inventor of the bear destroying coffee table (patent not pending).
    2. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by morgan_greywolf · · Score: 1

      I think you missed it. I think that was last year. 2009 will be the Year of the Floptical. Don't ask me why.

    3. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by i+kan+reed · · Score: 1

      Wait till they get to the year of the wikipedia. The whole year will be blocked.

    4. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by sm62704 · · Score: 3, Funny

      "2007 Could have been a the year of the Spaceship. Virgin Galactic intends flew White Knight 1 as well as Spaceship 1 during this, at this point planning for January. Burt Rutan, always reticent to comments on progress of any project, says nothing to support or contradict"

      How about waiting for something to actually happen before posting it 9on slashdot? I mean yeah, we all like science fiction but come on.

      What university can I attend to get my PhD on Futurism?

      -mcgrew (who has lived long enough to know that anyone who pretends to predict the future is a fraud, and anyone who asks "will the year [n] be the year of the [x]?" is ob crack.

      PS: "reticent to comments"? I rest my case!

      --
      mcgrew's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by greedy self-interest
    5. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by nschubach · · Score: 1

      Me, I'll wait for the year of the back-to-basics-keep-it-simple electronics, thanks.

      Tell me your not going to start up a religion based on back to the basics anti-complicated technology. Well, if you do, you can branch from the mennonite belief structure and create your own "Techish" (or would it be "Amnologist"?) society where you shun any form of complicated technology in favor of a simple life. You can solder your own boards, print your own chips and resolve to never use that confounded OLED technology.
      --
      Every time I start to have faith in humanity, I ruin it by driving to work between 7 and 8 am.
    6. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by nschubach · · Score: 1

      Wait till they get to the year of the wikipedia. The whole year will be blocked.{{fact}}

      --
      Every time I start to have faith in humanity, I ruin it by driving to work between 7 and 8 am.
    7. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by mseidl · · Score: 3, Funny

      I'm tired of "This is the Year of..."

      "This is the year of the linux desktop"
      "This is the year of the space ship"
      "This is the year I lose my virginity"

      As much as I want these things to happen, they wont come true. :(

    8. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by ByOhTek · · Score: 4, Insightful

      No, but recently I went to buy a microwave.

      My requirements are simple, I should, at most, have to hit one button, enter the time I wish to cook my food, and then hit start. It can have optional temp control, etc, and I'm fine, but some of the microwaves I saw had all kinds of complex and barely useful functions that I found unecessary, and the interface had simply putting in the time more complex than needed.

      I had a similar experience with a blender - on, off, speed, that's all I need. I found several with different food type modes, but no specific speed control.

      Analyzing all of their modes, determining what they mean (and if you agree with them, often they don't agree with other makes and models) gets incredibly annoying. I don't need someone to tell me how to cook my food.

      I'm not saying that we should avoid anything complex, but we should keep things as simple as possible for the job at hand, and not add extra coplexity at the cost of simplicity. My microwave, for example, has all of those extra modes (which I don't use), but it didn't put them in at the cost of simplicity, it acts very straigthforward, unless I press one of the mode buttons.

      --
      Self proclaimed typo king, and inventor of the bear destroying coffee table (patent not pending).
    9. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by orasio · · Score: 1, Offtopic

      I'm tired of "This is the Year of..."

      "This is the year of the linux desktop"
      "This is the year of the space ship"
      "This is the year I lose my virginity"

      As much as I want these things to happen, they wont come true. :( For me, the year of the Linux desktop was 2002. From then on, it was easy enough for me to have a Linux desktop, and interoperate with only minor annoyances (much less time involved than increased maintenance involved with a windows desktop, at least in my case).

      You are right about the spaceship, but with the other thing, it's a non issue. Eventually you grow up and get laid, or at least there's "the year of the hooker".
    10. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by peragrin · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I was just thinking that about my DVD player remote. It has play/pause/ skip etc, but then it has three men buttons, a num pad, and at least 15 other buttons that I have never touched. In the 8 years I have owned the DVD player some 30 butttons haven't ever been used, yet every new DVD player has all those same buttons.

      WHY?

      I ask as I have been using Apple's front row to watch some dvd's on my comuter, and apple's 6 button remote is simple to use and I have used every button on the player. Add a power button and i would love to use it as my DVD player remote. Possily a separate eject button but even that isn't nessecary. You have to get up to get the disc anyways, leave the eject button on the drive.

      --
      i thought once I was found, but it was only a dream.
    11. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Well, if you do, you can branch from the mennonite belief structure The Amish are not a branch off of the Mennonite church, Mennonite and Amish both came from the Anabaptist reformation. At least get your facts straight before you try to make fun of a people and their beliefs.
    12. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by jandrese · · Score: 1

      Heh, it's always annoyed me when a microwave makes you press a button before entering the time when you're just cooking something on high for N seconds. IMHO, every microwave should let you just punch in the time and press start, since 90% of the time that's all people are doing with it anyway. If you want different power levels or modes or whatnot then it's perfectly fine to press a button to switch it into that mode, but the default should exist and be useful. There is no reason for the "Time Cook" button to exist outside of possibly those programmable microwaves.

      --

      I read the internet for the articles.
    13. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by nschubach · · Score: 1

      I never said they did, and for the record, I wasn't making fun of anyone... but believe what you must in order to feel comfortable about yourself.

      --
      Every time I start to have faith in humanity, I ruin it by driving to work between 7 and 8 am.
    14. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by Orange+Crush · · Score: 1

      It's the soap dilemma. i.e. It's astonishingly difficult to find plain soap. Manufacturers want to differentiate their products to justify above-commodity prices so they add all kinds of antibaterial agents, detergents, plant extracts, magical micro-scrubby bits, apple stems, etc. To the point that simple plain soap is almost nowhere to be found. (Typically I can only ever find Ivory)

      Tacking on much beyond the ever-popular "Popcorn" preset button is just the manufacturers adding more bells and whistles to make their microwave look less like a commodity.

    15. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by corifornia2 · · Score: 1

      Fuck that, thats damn near Amish. Any amish want to mod this down?

    16. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by 6Yankee · · Score: 2, Funny

      But in zero gravity, how do you get Linux to stay on the desktop?

    17. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by ByOhTek · · Score: 3, Funny

      Duct tape. It solves every problem!

      --
      Self proclaimed typo king, and inventor of the bear destroying coffee table (patent not pending).
    18. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by chaoticgeek · · Score: 1

      Plus every popcorn button I've ever used always burns my popcorn. I have yet to find one that actually cooks it well.

      --
      hello
    19. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by Rei · · Score: 5, Interesting

      What really got me was this:

      says Whitehorn, adding that he wants to offer $3 million launches to low Earth Orbit for small satellites. This launch service could use WK2 or a larger successor in the 2015 timeframe, which Whitehorn referred to as White Knight Three, using in either case a two-stage rocket that would place the payloads into orbits.

      And the actual orbital launch vehicle is...?

      Don't announce non-news. Now, Virgin Galactic does have a couple rudimentary "orbital designs", if you can even call them "designs". You know what? So do I. So do hundreds of thousands of people and companies. Having a design is not the critical factor. Having something that you're actually building, that has a serious economic study behind it, is.

      Incredible claims require incredible evidence. SpaceX's numbers are already an incredible claim (perhaps even justified; time will tell). But Whitehorn is talking about half that, with a so far mythical launch vehicle. Where's the evidence? Scaled is a company that's been building low-performance rocket planes -- a task a couple orders of magnitude less complicated than building actual orbital craft. Show us the evidence. Show us the designs. Explain how these designs are going to violate the economic principles that have held back the rocketry industry.

      They mention a two stage rocket. Even with a carrier, a two stage rocket still requires significant ISP, *especially* when that small-scale (30,000 kg loaded; minimally bigger than a Pegasus, and that's a 3-4 stage vehicle), as theirs will certainly have to be. To put it another way, SpaceShipOne's entire propulsion system, from tankage to fuel and oxidizer to combusion and so on, is limited to an ISP of about 250 sec. Each stage of the *three to four* stage Pegasus has an ISP of almost 300sec. There's no way to pull it off without completely scrapping the only rocket design they have experience with and building a complex turbopump-driven LOX/LH vehicle. Scaled's experience with turbopumps: Zero. Their experience with LOX: Zero. Their experience with LH: Zero. Their experience with everything else to do with rocketry, from reentry TPS to gimbaled thrust to RCS to thermal management in a vaccuum environment? Zero. They've worked with the easiest and lowest performance of modern rocket systems, a design that doesn't scale to orbit at all. If they want to do this, they're going to be starting practically from scratch.

      Once again: where's the evidence that this is remotely serious?

      I know Scaled is everyone's darling, but as far as real, orbital rocketry goes, they're a joke. If you want to cheer for a relatively small private rocketry company, cheer for one that actually is seriously working on getting to orbit and has an actual serious chance of getting there -- SpaceX. Even with them, there are no guarantees, but at least they're building the right things, not joyrides with about as much relevance to orbital rocketry as me building a go cart would be to formula 1 racing.

      --
      That last paragraph contained spoilers, so if you don't want spoilers go back and don't have read it.
    20. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by sm62704 · · Score: 1

      I wish I had mod points. Your comment is informative, insightful, and interesting. And it's not even full of typos like mine was!

      --
      mcgrew's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by greedy self-interest
    21. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by nutshell42 · · Score: 1
      Even with them, there are no guarantees, but at least they're building the right things, not joyrides with about as much relevance to orbital rocketry as me building a go cart would be to formula 1 racing.

      Michael Schumacher started out on go carts.

      If you wanna do space tourism even on a semi-large scale then suborbital is the only thing feasible at the moment.

      You're right that using WK as a first stage for orbital launches sounds dubious but don't belittle what they're doing.

      --
      Don't think of it as a flame---it's more like an argument that does 3d6 fire damage
    22. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by Bluesman · · Score: 1

      Right on. I like the commercial microwaves that have numbers 1-10 that correspond not to seconds, but to reasonable amounts of cook times. They also don't have a "start" button, it just goes. I don't need to cook something for 29 seconds as opposed to 30, and if I'm cooking less than 30 seconds it's unlikely that I'll walk away and not be able to stop the process after 10.

      And the only extra feature I want in a microwave is an option to disable the beep that plays every time you press anything. If you live in a small house with sleeping kids...being able to easily disable noisy functions is a godsend.

      --
      If moderation could change anything, it would be illegal.
    23. Re:Year of the Spaceship? by rocca · · Score: 1

      Amen. Personally I have never owned such a useful microwave as this one Turn knob to select time, hit start. A few extra buttons that I use often such as 'add 10 seconds' and everything else is out of the way. Then I look at my stove and cry, it has at least 30 buttons.

  2. Cost of space tourism by BadAnalogyGuy · · Score: 1

    the cost of tourism flights could drop significantly

    Or not.

    1. Re:Cost of space tourism by sm62704 · · Score: 1

      the cost of tourism flights could drop significantly and most people would STILL never be able to afford it in a million years.

      --
      mcgrew's razor: Never attribute to stupidity that which can be explained by greedy self-interest
    2. Re:Cost of space tourism by BadAnalogyGuy · · Score: 2, Funny

      Jesus Christ. If I can't afford space travel in a million years, just put me in a box and bury me in 6 feet of dirt, because I don't think I could live with myself.

  3. There is still time by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    There is till time for me to go from pauper to baller so I can fly in to space!

    To bad I'm always smoking weed and playing video games :-/

    1. Re:There is still time by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You could always manwhore. I am sure that you would make lots of money doing that. Why, with 20 million tricks, you could then afford a trip.

  4. But will the spaceship.... by Slashidiot · · Score: 1

    run linux, so 2008 is the year of the spaceship AND the year of linux on the desktop?

    --
    Tis women makes us love, Tis Love that makes us sad, Tis sadness makes us drink, And drinking makes us mad.
    1. Re:But will the spaceship.... by ByOhTek · · Score: 1

      wouldn't that be Linux on the spaceship and not on the desktop?

      --
      Self proclaimed typo king, and inventor of the bear destroying coffee table (patent not pending).
    2. Re:But will the spaceship.... by MBGMorden · · Score: 2, Funny

      2008: The year of Linux on the spaceship!

      --
      "People who think they know everything are very annoying to those of us who do."-Mark Twain
    3. Re:But will the spaceship.... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Heheh, yeah, I'm pretty sick of the "Year of " bullshit too. Hopefully this shit will quit making the front page; it's always a waste of time to read.

  5. Sure, if you have a spaceship on your desktop by Moraelin · · Score: 1

    But will the spaceship...
    run linux, so 2008 is the year of the spaceship AND the year of linux on the desktop?

    Only, if you have a spaceship on your desktop. And, well, I don't know about yours, but mine is already cluttered enough as it is ;)
    --
    A polar bear is a cartesian bear after a coordinate transform.
    1. Re:Sure, if you have a spaceship on your desktop by bobs666 · · Score: 1

      I just happen to have an L.E.M. on my desk top.
      Go figure.

  6. White Knight 2 in orbit??? by Tango42 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Last I heard, White Knight 2 was the *first stage* of a *sub*-orbital launch. How is it meant to get anything into orbit? Starting a sub-orbital craft from high altitude (as WK2 allows SS2 to do) makes sense, but I can't see it being much help with an orbital launch.

    1. Re:White Knight 2 in orbit??? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Last I heard, White Knight 2 was the *first stage* of a *sub*-orbital launch. How is it meant to get anything into orbit? Starting a sub-orbital craft from high altitude (as WK2 allows SS2 to do) makes sense, but I can't see it being much help with an orbital launch."

      Hmm, I've a revolutionary idea.

      How about we use the First Stage (White Knight 2) to launch a *Second* Stage.

      I should patent that, it might catch on...

    2. Re:White Knight 2 in orbit??? by Yvanhoe · · Score: 1

      Care to elaborate ? It has never been done before but the fuel saved by starting from high altitude seems to have a lot of sense to me even in the case of an orbital spacecraft.

      --
      The Wise adapts himself to the world. The Fool adapts the world to himself. Therefore, all progress depends on the Fool.
    3. Re:White Knight 2 in orbit??? by Karrde45 · · Score: 1

      The Pegasus series of launch vehicles by Orbital Sciences is an air launched rocket that delivers small satellites to orbit. You don't really gain anything from the altitude per-se. Orbiting the earth is far more about velocity than about altitude. What you do gain is a noticeable drop in air density, which makes the rocket dynamics much more agreeable. For large craft it's not worth it, but for small ones it is a viable method to get into orbit.

    4. Re:White Knight 2 in orbit??? by savuporo · · Score: 3, Informative

      I suppose you werent aware of Airlaunch LLC ?
      Another possibility, as pointed out in some other posts, if you dont take passengers as payloads on SS2 but do take a payload, which is a third stage, and release it after SS2 motor burns out, you could reach orbit. Admittedly, having a special payload-carrying version of SS2 without a passenger cabin would make third stage separation easier, but there is a reason to suspect that something like that is being considered and built by Scaled. Rutan has hinted about Tier 3 project before.

      --
      http://validator.w3.org/check?uri=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.slashdot.org Errors found while checking this document as HTML5!
    5. Re:White Knight 2 in orbit??? by WhiplashII · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Typically the fuel saved is irrelevant - the real reason to launch a rocket from high altitude is better engines. To a certain extent, the efficiency of a rocket engine is related to the ratio of internal engine pressure to external engine pressure - so high altitude launch lets you use lower pressure (lighter) engines and keep the same expansion ratio.

      Of course, most people do that by using a first stage rocket to throw the second stage out of the atmosphere - because experimental rockets are cheaper to develop than experimental aircraft (at least that is the idea). But if you have the airplane already, it makes sense to use it.

      --
      while (sig==sig) sig=!sig;
    6. Re:White Knight 2 in orbit??? by OriginalArlen · · Score: 1
      Keep your common-sense, fact and physics-based nit-picking to yourself. Rutan will undoubtedly be able to accelerate his contraption from 1500mph to 27,000 mph. It's just a case of carrying enough tyre rubber and kerosene! Surely the Rutan-powered moon-base can't be far away now!

      Oh wait, that's all bollocks, isn't it. Hey ho, back to reality...

      --

      Everything I needed to know about life, I learnt from Blake's Seven
    7. Re:White Knight 2 in orbit??? by nofx_3 · · Score: 1

      There already is a second stage, Space Ship 2. The White Knight (poor choice of names, I see some crazy hick in a KKK hood when I hear it), is simple a very low weight high altitude jet that is capable of carrying the Space Ship 2 to a thinner part of the atmosphere closer to it's destination altitude so it can use a much smaller rocket to reach apex. This is similar to the military idea of using air breathing super jets (scram jets) to get missiles/rockets to a high altitude and speed so the rocket itself uses much less fuel and can subsequently weight significantly less yet carry a decent amount of cargo.

      -kap

      --
      Visualize Whirled Peas
    8. Re:White Knight 2 in orbit??? by geek2k5 · · Score: 1

      The article summary, as well as the article itself, mentioned that there could be a White Knight 3 for orbital launches.


      Another person mentioned Pegasus, which has been used to put small payloads into orbit. Oddly enough, Rutan's company worked with Pegasus. But I believe that THOSE launches were off B52s.


      A quick check of the www.scaled.com site links to the group that does the Pegasus launches. They are using a modified L-1011 for launches now and have over twenty successful launches.


      Rutan might be able to do better than the L-1011 with a White Knight version that has a higher ceiling or better fuel economy.

    9. Re:White Knight 2 in orbit??? by Rei · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The problem is that gaining enough altitude for LEO is only a very small part of a rocket's energy requirements, let alone gaining only enough altitude to get you into the stratosphere. It's a rather minimal percentage of your energy requirements. The spacecraft also gains a bit from whatever forward momentum the carrier craft had, but you're typically looking at perhaps 3-5% of its final velocity.

      There are two real benefits to carrier craft for orbital spacecraft. The first, and lesser one, is that by getting you past most of the atmosphere, you don't have to face much atmospheric resistance. This means less losses and a simpler TPS for launch. The second one, which to many people's surprise is typically the more relevant one, is the ability to launch from wherever you want. Launching from near the equator can be a big help in reducing delta-V requirements. Launching from over water mostly eliminates sonic boom problems. It also means that in the event of an accident, civilians aren't much impacted. These practicalities can be surprisingly important for reducing costs.

      Scramjets are quite different. Their goal is to actually provide a significant percentage of the delta-V requirements. A subsonic carrier craft will not do this.

      That said, as usual, Scaled is focusing on the showy things here. A carrier airplane may look all nice, but the real make-or-break challenges are in the rocket itself. You don't even have to have a custom-designed plane for carrying a launch vehicle. That's only needed for mounting the vehicle to the underbelly of the fuselage. The Pegasus is mounted under the wing. The Buran and Shuttle are/were mounted fuselage-top. You can tow launch vehicles and even launch them from within the payload bay of a cargo plane, pulled out the back by a drogue chute like a cargo drop (and yes, this has been tested). A craft like WhiteKnightTwo doesn't make much of a difference for actual orbital rocketry, but its higher altitude range can make a big difference for little joyride hops that only care about the easy part -- gaining a little bit of altitude. I.e., what Scaled has actually been working on.

      --
      That last paragraph contained spoilers, so if you don't want spoilers go back and don't have read it.
    10. Re:White Knight 2 in orbit??? by Rei · · Score: 1

      Oh, and I just realized that I forgot to mention the other benefit of air launch -- letting your craft get by only on engines designed for vaccuum operation. The typical ground-launch design has the lowest stage have atmosphere-optimized engines and higher stages have engines optimized for lower pressure.

      --
      That last paragraph contained spoilers, so if you don't want spoilers go back and don't have read it.
    11. Re:White Knight 2 in orbit??? by Rei · · Score: 1

      SS2 adds pretty insignificant delta-V to the system. You'd be better off just omitting it and using a craft actually designed for reaching orbit.

      --
      That last paragraph contained spoilers, so if you don't want spoilers go back and don't have read it.
    12. Re:White Knight 2 in orbit??? by savuporo · · Score: 1

      Not so fast. Rocket engines work differently at different altitudes. Generally, nozzle that is optimized for maximum performance at sea level, does not perform well in vacuum and vice versa.
      Starting significantly closer to thinner air has its benefits. Also, Max-Q will occur at significantly different circumstances, providing for structural optimizations.
      There is a reason why SS1 is so small and lightweight, and still could go up to 100km with a weight of three passengers. Same benefits, to lesser extent apply to orbital access.
      Also, air launch provides some operational advantages, like getting out of the bad weather and still launching.

      Both VTVL and air launched stuff have their perks, its up to market to figure out whether any of them will prove superior or something else will replace them entirely, or maybe they will peacefully coexist and fill their respective niches.

      --
      http://validator.w3.org/check?uri=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.slashdot.org Errors found while checking this document as HTML5!
    13. Re:White Knight 2 in orbit??? by Rei · · Score: 1

      Not so fast. Rocket engines work differently at different altitudes

      And this has what to do with SS2?
      Methinks you're mixing up SS2 with WK2.

      --
      That last paragraph contained spoilers, so if you don't want spoilers go back and don't have read it.
  7. risk in liquidity by Speare · · Score: 4, Interesting

    This whole space-tourism thing is at a precarious stage. Should there be just one freak accident, their revenue prospects would turn off like a Fossett.

    Sorry, bad pun. In the 1970s, we seemed to be ready to do daring things even after lives are lost. Today, the public is far more risk averse. One more shuttle disaster and we'll be on the ground for twenty years. And I doubt a private company would fare much better than NASA in this regard.

    --
    [ .sig file not found ]
    1. Re:risk in liquidity by Teancum · · Score: 3, Interesting

      This whole space-tourism thing is at a precarious stage. Should there be just one freak accident, their revenue prospects would turn off like a Fossett.


      The only way this would have a significant impact is on a political basis. That would be, some idiot of a bureaucrat who gums up the whole thing by holding hearings and stopping anybody in any situation from using a rocket of any design to get into space.

      In fact, that is precisely the problem that the USA has been facing in manned spaceflight.... that there has been one "true" design of a spacecraft. When a major design flaw is found with that spacecraft design, it shuts down the whole "industry" and makes a huge mess of things.

      If you make the comparison to commercial aviation, this would be like trying to conduct passenger air travel with everybody using the same type of airplane or even the very same (very large) airplane. Yeah, if there is a problem or an accident involving that design, perhaps a serious inquiry should occur and perhaps even shut down all of the airplanes of that particular design. Luckily, there are enough different kinds of airplanes flying with commercial aviation that passenger air travel would continue even if the FAA completely removed one type of airplane with a particularly fatal design flaw...or even removed all of the aircraft of a particular manufacturer (like Boeing, for instance). Would that put that particular manufacturer into bankruptcy if their aircraft were grounded for a significant amount of time? Yeah. No doubt. But it still wouldn't kill commercial aviation, and in the long run it would actually be healthier for the industry as others would try to fill the economic niche left by the removal of that company, specifically trying to overcome the problems discovered.

      While nobody, and I mean nobody, really wants to see somebody die in space, and I'll admit that I really am concerned about commercial spaceflight safety, even having a full spacecraft of passengers dying would not necessarily be "the end of the world". People die in amusement parks, and fairly often on roller coasters. A curious thing happens when people die in an amusement park, however: The number of customers actually goes up! I'm not kidding here. And the lines to get on the ride where people died actually get longer (once, of course, the ride is fixed and the park officials claim to have fixed the problem).

      If, when an accident occurs for the commercial spaceflight industry during actual operations of the spacecraft, there will be some very intelligent (they are rocket scientists, you know) people who will be able to calmly and completely explain where the safety protocols broke down, what was the real problem, and be able to honestly say that the problem has been corrected. This has been a pattern since the beginning of commercial aviation or even commercial shipping of any kind, and I simply don't see this one transportation method being openly dismissed to the degree you are suggesting if somebody dies. Do people still ride passenger cruise ships through the North Atlantic since the Titanic sank?
    2. Re:risk in liquidity by WhiplashII · · Score: 1

      People keep on saying this, and congressfools keep trying to legislate it. Not everyone is like you! Believe it or not, people climb mount Everest every year - and die trying. They pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for the honor of narrowly avoiding (or succumbing to) slow death from cold.

      People really do join the military when they have college degrees. People really do drive Nascars. Some people are not driven by fear to avoid death - they are driven to embrace life to the fullest.

      --
      while (sig==sig) sig=!sig;
    3. Re:risk in liquidity by khallow · · Score: 1

      Sorry, bad pun. In the 1970s, we seemed to be ready to do daring things even after lives are lost. Today, the public is far more risk averse. One more shuttle disaster and we'll be on the ground for twenty years. And I doubt a private company would fare much better than NASA in this regard. As another poster noted, we still have plenty of risk-seekers engaging in risky activities. To be honest, there will be fatal accidents. There's no reason not to expect it nor will they be "freak accidents". The people who actually fly on these will understand those risks.
    4. Re:risk in liquidity by lrohrer · · Score: 1


      If the park is still able to get insurance, it will reopen.

    5. Re:risk in liquidity by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Some people are not driven by fear to avoid death - they are driven to embrace adrenaline rushes to the fullest.

      There. Fixed that for you.

    6. Re:risk in liquidity by TooMuchToDo · · Score: 1

      Large parks can self-insure if they need to.

    7. Re:risk in liquidity by jdigriz · · Score: 1

      People said that before the last shuttle disaster in '03 also, and here we are flying again. Whether the public is risk-averse or not, ultimately they don't get to decide, thank god. Public approval for Apollo never exceeded 40% at its height and NASA still went to the moon. Your doomsaying is needlessly inflammatory and inaccurate. Unless a private spacecraft crashed to Earth and incinerated an entire orphanage and puppy-mill, I don't think public opinion would impact a privately-held company at all.

    8. Re:risk in liquidity by shadowbearer · · Score: 1

      The only way this would have a significant impact is on a political basis. That would be, some idiot of a bureaucrat who gums up the whole thing by holding hearings and stopping anybody in any situation from using a rocket of any design to get into space.

        The function of the bureaucrat is to justify the job they hold. So this surprises you how? Don't make the mistake of thinking that the people who make the decisions have any more than their own interests in mind. It's nice to think so, but it's not realistic.

      While nobody, and I mean nobody, really wants to see somebody die in space, and I'll admit that I really am concerned about commercial spaceflight safety, even having a full spacecraft of passengers dying would not necessarily be "the end of the world". People die in amusement parks, and fairly often on roller coasters. A curious thing happens when people die in an amusement park, however: The number of customers actually goes up! I'm not kidding here. And the lines to get on the ride where people died actually get longer (once, of course, the ride is fixed and the park officials claim to have fixed the problem).

        The flawed assumption you operating under here assumes tha that there is a majority of voters in this country who think that access to space is more important than roller coasters and the other entertainment that our society offers them. Oh, and that those majority have had the same sort of education, and think the same way that we do. That thinking is fundamentally flawed, in that it assumes that the "majority" (which in itself is a flawed concept) has any sort of singular goal when it comes to voting for government money to be spent on anything - or for that matter, any sort of rational thinking at all. I think it's pretty clear that most voters over the last few generations wouldn't be able distinguish between rational ojectives and irrational.

        There's no law that says that the mass of humanity has to be rational. Unfortunately we as a country seem determined to prove that...

        (the richest country in the world, *ever* and we put a man on the moon, then did... what?)

        SB

      --
      It's old. The more humans I meet, the more I like my cats. At least they are honest.
  8. US$3 million! by Thanshin · · Score: 4, Funny

    Just three ridiculous million dollars? With the contents of my wallet right now I could send 0.00002077886 satellites!

    Interstellar domination is finally at reach.

    1. Re:US$3 million! by east+coast · · Score: 1

      I'm sure they also accept Mastercard and Visa.

      --
      Dedicated Cthulhu Cultist since 4523 BC.
    2. Re:US$3 million! by Bill_the_Engineer · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I know your joking, but 3 million dollars is a significant reduction in launch costs.

      The biggest hurdle I experienced in developing a low cost research satellite bus was the "impedance mismatch" between the cost of the satellite and the cost to launch it into orbit. It is almost impossible to sell a satellite that lowered costs by accepting some higher mission risks when you'll have to raise $30 million to put it in orbit. Even dividing this cost through multiple payloads is not always that great a deal since the secondary payloads are subjected to the requirements of the primary payload. This usually means accepting a less-than prime orbit inclination for your intended mission.

      --
      These comments are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of my employer or colleagues...
    3. Re:US$3 million! by Rock+(The+LARPer) · · Score: 1

      Just three ridiculous million dollars? With the contents of my wallet right now I could send 0.00002077886 satellites!

      Interstellar domination is finally at reach. 3,000,000*0.00002077886 = 62.33658 So you have bills and a change purse. Weird enough. How do you get the .00658th of a dollar?
      --
      -- Attempted readability and clear communication -- However grammar is unspoken for here --
    4. Re:US$3 million! by kryten_nl · · Score: 1

      3,000,000*0.000020778865=62.336595
      3,000,000*0.000020778855=62.336565

      There is no cent value in that range, I'm hoping that the GP will explain this conundrum.

      --
      For the perfect anti-Unix, write an OS that thinks it knows what you're doing better than you do and let it be wrong.
    5. Re:US$3 million! by gratemyl · · Score: 1

      Ever considered that not everyone on the planet uses USD?

      GP might be talking EUR, GBP, etc. - any currency really.

      I do use EUR and USD heavily, but that doesn't mean Japanese people do.

      --
      hackerkey://v4sw5/7BCHJMPRUY$hw3ln3pr6/7FOP$ck6ma8+9u6L$w4/7CGUXm0l6DLRi82NCe3+9t5Sb7HMOPRen5a17s0DSr1/2p-3.62/-5.23g3/5
    6. Re:US$3 million! by pmike_bauer · · Score: 1

      Hey, kids, Thanshin has 62 USD on his person.
      Happy mugging.

      --
      I read /. for the (Score:-1, Conservative) comments.
    7. Re:US$3 million! by Thanshin · · Score: 1

      3,000,000*0.000020778865=62.336595
      3,000,000*0.000020778855=62.336565

      There is no cent value in that range, I'm hoping that the GP will explain this conundrum.
      62.336565 US$ = 42.60 Euros.
      :)
      Temporal link that will fail as EUR/USD fluctuates
  9. Only sub-orbital? by WibbleOnMars · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I'm fairly sure Spaceship 1 was only able to get to sub-orbital altitudes. Assuming Spaceship 2 will have the same capabilities, surely that's a bit of a problem for their plans to launch satelites?

    1. Re:Only sub-orbital? by Vulch · · Score: 1

      Using White Knight 2, the carrier aircraft, not Spaceship 2. Take a small rocket that does have enough delta-V for orbital insertion up on the carrier aircraft instead of a Spaceship 2.

      It may also involve a Spaceship 2.5 without the passenger capability that acts as a flyback second stage and releases a third stage at apogee.

    2. Re:Only sub-orbital? by tgd · · Score: 2, Informative

      They said White Knight 2 not SpaceShip2.

      Another launch vehicle could be used at high altitude to boost a satellite into orbit.

    3. Re:Only sub-orbital? by khallow · · Score: 1

      This reminds me. Scaled Composites likes to test their aircraft extensively. Having an unmanned vehicle with orbital capability would allow them to test a number of things without risking people. It's a good stepping stone to the desired orbital vehicle ("SpaceShipThree" if I'm not mistaken).

    4. Re:Only sub-orbital? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm pretty sure a carrier aircraft like the White Knight can't realistically scale up to a size capable of launching a manned capsule into orbit. The White Knight 2 is going to have about the take-off weight of a 737. That's for a suborbital rocket. The closest analog existing is the Orbital Sciences Pegasus rocket (incidentally, the aerodynamic parts of the Pegasus were designed by Scaled Composites under contract), which only has a 900 pound payload capacity and requires a DC-10 to loft it. This isn't an ideal comparison because the Pegasus is carried under one wing, so the weight is limited by the unbalanced load.

      However, the smallest manned launch vehicle currently available, the Soyuz, weighs over 310 tons fully fueled, not counting the payload, and you actually only save a fraction (~10% I think) of fuel by performing an air launch. The main benefit Orbital Sciences achieved was reducing infrastructure cost, which they can do because the Pegasus is solid fueled...there's no cryogenic propellants requiring special handling equipment or requiring continuous top-off prior to launch. Even the mighty AN-225, the largest airplane ever built, can't lift 300 tons.

    5. Re:Only sub-orbital? by khallow · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure a carrier aircraft like the White Knight can't realistically scale up to a size capable of launching a manned capsule into orbit. The White Knight 2 is going to have about the take-off weight of a 737. That's for a suborbital rocket. The closest analog existing is the Orbital Sciences Pegasus rocket (incidentally, the aerodynamic parts of the Pegasus were designed by Scaled Composites under contract), which only has a 900 pound payload capacity and requires a DC-10 to loft it. This isn't an ideal comparison because the Pegasus is carried under one wing, so the weight is limited by the unbalanced load.

      It doesn't look so bad to me. 900 pounds is enough for a couple of people and air, I think, if you can promptly link with something in orbit and have no provisions for anything other that survival for a limited amount of time. The space inside the Pegasus is very limited, roughly a cylinder more than a meter in diameter, and 2 meters long (according to Wikipedia). It would be pretty claustrophobic.

      However, the smallest manned launch vehicle currently available, the Soyuz, weighs over 310 tons fully fueled, not counting the payload, and you actually only save a fraction (~10% I think) of fuel by performing an air launch. The main benefit Orbital Sciences achieved was reducing infrastructure cost, which they can do because the Pegasus is solid fueled...there's no cryogenic propellants requiring special handling equipment or requiring continuous top-off prior to launch. Even the mighty AN-225, the largest airplane ever built, can't lift 300 tons.

      This is incorrect. The current AN-225 lifts 425 (metric) tons. 250 tons of cargo and 175 tons of fuel. One can simply exchange 60 tons of fuel for cargo in order to carry a Soyuz equivalent cargo. The concentration of more cargo in the center of the plane will probably require some degree of strengthening of the frame. But you still have 115 tons of fuel. You won't need that much fuel to go up to altitude for a launch.

  10. obWho by Rob+T+Firefly · · Score: 5, Funny

    Burt Rutan, always reticent to comments on progress of any project, says nothing to support or contradict Virgin Galactic's announcement. That's because this Rutan and his brethren are far too busy preparing for the next stage in their ongoing interstellar war against the Sontaran Empire.
    1. Re:obWho by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The glorious Sontaran Army will crush the shape-shifting heathens and their mockery of our reproductive challenges! Virgin indeed!

  11. remind me of a Mitch joke by Martian_Kyo · · Score: 1
    wow Spaceship Two...how long did it take to come up with that name

    what will this this spaceship be called...how about spaceship, no! spaceship two, hell yeah! Meeting adjourned.

    They said lets call this hotel something tree, so they had a meeting, it was quite short. how about tree, no! double tree, hell yeah! Meeting adjourned. I had my heart set on quadruple tree. Well we were almost there.

    Mitch Hedberg was a funny guy.

    1. Re:remind me of a Mitch joke by BrianGKUAC · · Score: 1

      RiP, Mitch. You are missed.

      --
      Menus: Linux=function, Windows=vendor, OS X=as little as possible. Makes a statement, don't you think?
    2. Re:remind me of a Mitch joke by khallow · · Score: 1
      wow Spaceship Two...how long did it take to come up with that name

      Sounds like they didn't waste any time or money at all. Keep in mind that launching people into space is much better advertising than coming up with a catchy name for a prototype. ESPECIALLY, if you don't want your prototype's name to steal the thunder from the more extravagant names that your paying customers will come up with.

    3. Re:remind me of a Mitch joke by Martian_Kyo · · Score: 2, Funny

      I know you're right. I am just glad my parents didn't name me Child Two. ;)

    4. Re:remind me of a Mitch joke by khallow · · Score: 1

      I am just glad my parents didn't name me Child Two. Yea. You'd end up in a museum too. At least, your future siblings would get cool names, like Kinder Mender (TM) or TotTycho (TM).
  12. "space" vs space by Bearpaw · · Score: 1

    While I'm certainly cheering on Virgin Galactic, and wish them well in this stage of their business model, I have to say that I won't really be personally tempted until an orbital tourist flight is available.

    Of course, unless they establish orbital flights sooner and the price for same comes down farther and faster than I think it will, it's probably a moot point for me.

  13. Space Tourism != cheap by Gothmolly · · Score: 1

    So the flights will drop to 50K dollars instead of 100K ? Where do I sign up?

    --
    I want to delete my account but Slashdot doesn't allow it.
  14. Time to Completion by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Funny

    However, the report states that Spaceship 2 is 50% complete and White Knight 2 is 60% complete. How many citizens would I have to sacrifice to have these done in 1 turn? I want to research advanced tech 4.
    1. Re:Time to Completion by east+coast · · Score: 1

      You cannot hurry a wonder.

      --
      Dedicated Cthulhu Cultist since 4523 BC.
    2. Re:Time to Completion by baboonlogic · · Score: 1

      You can, but you will need a great person for that... Maybe a great merchant or a great scientist...

    3. Re:Time to Completion by east+coast · · Score: 1

      Damn, you're right. I forgot all about that. My bad.

      --
      Dedicated Cthulhu Cultist since 4523 BC.
    4. Re:Time to Completion by El+Yanqui · · Score: 1

      It's simpler than that.
      Convert to slavery, whip until your hands bleed. We'll have hotels on Alpha Centauri in no time.

      --
      Well, thanks to the Internet, I'm now bored with sex.
  15. How come we bypassed the year of the flying car? by iBod · · Score: 1

    I want my flying car before my personal space ship.

  16. Wussies... by flyingfsck · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Fortunately not everybody in the world are wussies, only the US media seems to be overly concerned with safety. As for the real men, there are still lots of Evil Knievels out there.

    --
    Excuse me, but please get off my Pennisetum Clandestinum, eh!
    1. Re:Wussies... by shadowbearer · · Score: 1

      The real irony there is that the richest society in the world - and the one with the loftiest self-inflated ideals - has been taken over by the very people the founders of that society warned against.

        I suppose that was probably inevitable, given human history, but it still should give one pause, and make one think that maybe, just maybe, the human race needs an entirely different individual paradigm than religion and greed?

        Maybe. But one can dream.

      SB

      --
      It's old. The more humans I meet, the more I like my cats. At least they are honest.
  17. Skip the frenzy, this time. by Futurepower(R) · · Score: 1

    Early adopters: This is a good example of when you don't want to be an early adopter. The first version of Windows XP caused a lot of grief for users. The first versions of cheap spacecraft are likely to cause even more serious grief.

    When you recognize serious danger, skip the usual enthusiasm.

  18. First flight by plopez · · Score: 1

    We'll have to get an intern to test it.

    --
    putting the 'B' in LGBTQ+
    1. Re:First flight by icebrain · · Score: 1

      Pick me! Pick me! (though my intern days are behind me now...)

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    2. Re:First flight by FireFury03 · · Score: 1

      I think the parent was referring to this.

  19. So by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Natural resources are running out at a frightening pace, and instead of putting resources into researching alternative energy and sustainable growth, we put out huge amounts of greenhouse gases to send the richest 0,0001% on short tourist trips into space.

    We are doomed, and I'm beginning to think we deserve it.

  20. Don't forget the rest of commercial spaceflight by Teancum · · Score: 2, Informative

    While Virgin Galactic and Scaled Composites are certainly the focus of this particular article and thread, they are hardly the only commercial spacecraft corporation that is making some significant progress and will be making headlines in 2008 (assuming that everything is still working the way it should).

    SpaceX, or Space Exploration Technologies, the company started by Paypal founder Elon Musk, is scheduled to perform their final test flight for the Falcon 1 in January, 2008. If all goes well, they may even get a flight of their larger Falcon 9 spacecraft before the end of the year. This is particularly significant for manned spaceflight, as their Dragon spacecraft is reliant upon the successful launches of these vehicles. Unlike the Virgin Galactic spacecraft, the Dragon spacecraft is going to have the capabilities of sending as many as six passengers to the ISS.... or anywhere else in Low-earth orbit. In many ways, I think this is going to be far more significant than what Branson is doing with Virgin Galactic.

    In addition, the Lunar Landing Challenge will likely be "won" this time next year with the nearly dozen rocket teams competing for the purse. My heart broke when Armadillo Aerospace crashed and burned this year and failed to win the price objectives, but they certainly learned from their experience and will roll those designs into the next generation of their spacecraft. This particular challenge is certainly breeding many future commercial spaceflight companies that are flying real hardware, and not just some imaginative designs on paper that will never see the light of day.

    I also don't know what Blue Origin is doing, but that is certainly a company to keep a close ear to the ground and at least try to watch for developments over this next year. Unlike several of the spacecraft manufacturers, they are avoiding the appearance of vaporware by simply not really announcing anything other than the fact that they own one heck of a lot of real estate in Texas and that they have had several successful test flights of their rocketry hardware.... and a long term goal of also doing commercial passenger space travel. They also have some investors with some deep pockets that can help get them there without having to "go public".

    I'm just scratching the surface here as well, but there are some amazing groups of individuals who have been devoting resources to commercial spaceflight, and 2008 really could be "the year of the spacecraft", at least in terms of headlines generated by the mainstream press. Virgin Galactic certainly isn't going to be the only one in the headlines here, although they may be the first to send paying passengers into space on something other than a Soyuz capsule.

    1. Re:Don't forget the rest of commercial spaceflight by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I also don't know what Blue Origin is doing, but that is certainly a company to keep a close ear to the ground and at least try to watch for developments over this next year.

      Blue Origin is only planning suborbital flights for the time being. They've got quite a bit of money behind them as the financial plaything of Amazon founder Jeff Bezos, but they're a long ways behind SpaceX on technology. They're currently using pressure-fed hydrogen peroxide engines, which fall far short of the specific impulse or mass efficiency of behing able to attain orbit, but are much easier to build and control. I know (from browsing their jobs page a while back), that they're trying to pick up engineers with experience building the cryogenically fueled, turbo-pump fed engines like SpaceX is using and that are basically required for going to orbit, but I'm guessing Elon Musk already picked up most of the talent that wasn't content with traditional rocket science jobs at Lockheed or Boeing.

      Armadillo Aerospace is an interesting one. They're definitely more of a hobby rocket team than a commercial endeavor. Because it's mostly software guys, their focus seems to be more on figuring out new ways to accomplish things with the avionics than on high performance rocket technology. They may eventually have marketable avionics technology or expertise, but don't expect them to contribute in any glamorous ways to the space industry.

  21. White Knight? by Sodki · · Score: 1

    They would have gone with the Black Night, but he lost his limbs in a fight with King Arthur and thus couldn't handle the spacecraft. It's a shame, really.

  22. Re:Space Tourism = cheap by savuporo · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Have a look what Armadillo Aerospace has quoted for their flight costs for Pixel & other VTVL vehicles.

    Rutan's designs cost that much because he chose stage-and a half, HTHL approach, with hybrid motors. There is relatively high lower bar on flight costs for such thing, because you have to replace the motor for each flight, and thats expensive.
    It made sense for winning the X-Prize, because Rutan is an expert of flying craft design, which involves wings etc. so thats what was fastest, lowest-risk development path. Whether it makes sense for really low-cost spaceflight is another matter.

    VTVL vehicles, like the ones that Armadillo, Masten Space Systems, Jeff Bezos' Blue Origin and a few others are building can ( on paper, at least ) approach way lower flight costs in the future, which will remain a small multiple of liquid fuel costs. Expect to see prices in $10K range in less than a decade.

    --
    http://validator.w3.org/check?uri=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.slashdot.org Errors found while checking this document as HTML5!
  23. They are going to make a bundle. by wolff000 · · Score: 1

    I wish I had the kind of money to invest in Virgin Galactic. If they can come through on this they are going to have more money than Gates in no time. We are watching the future unfold here.

    --
    WTF?
  24. Here's how they should fund this... by daggre · · Score: 1

    Just some thoughts: Ok asking for deposits on future tickets is a bad idea. Instead, they should be selling sponsorships both corporate and individual and get the U.S. populace to be part of this. Phase 1: Sell engraved pavestones, engravings on a wall of sponsors, advertisements, construction tours, etc. and get this rolling. Phase 2: Continue selling sponsorship for construction of shuttles based on best existing reusable craft design at that point. Phase 3: Once they have the spaceport built, they should start selling sponsorship of a commercial space port and begin construction as soon as possible. Primary focus of the spaceport would be in-space construction. Phase 4: Build space-locked (non-landing) mining ships at the space port, and start mining near-Earth asteroids . At this point the space economy would be started, as the minerals mined could be used to build new stations and ships to continue the process with the only planetary launches/landings required for crew and basic life support needs. Phase 5: At $10,000/kg cost to fly food into space, soybeans and other fast-growing crops should be grown in space as quickly as possible, starting an in-space food market to supplement the mining market and facilitate deployment of a much larger in-space workforce.

    1. Re:Here's how they should fund this... by geek2k5 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Virgin Galactic has been asking for deposits for tickets on a proven technology that should be able to be scaled up. It is not like they are taking a tenth scale model and trying to enlarge that. And if the scaling doesn't work, they can always go back to the White Knight One and SpaceShipOne plans and crank them out.

      Phase 1: This is being done in a sense. Private investors, like Paul Allen of Microsoft and Richard Branson of Virgin are providing the sponsorship through direct infusion of cash. This doesn't prevent other groups from doing the small investment route. ("The Man Who Sold the Moon" by Robert Heinlein would fit this.)

      Phase 2: The 'best' reusable craft is limited to three or so designs at the moment. (I'm basing this on American craft that have gone into space and returned to be reused again.) One is the original X-15. Another is the space shuttle. The third is SpaceShipOne. In time, as other groups successfully send people up AND get them back down, there will be others. Success in these areas will attract serious investment from institutions and not just rich people.

      Phase 3: Bigelow Aerospace is already working with inflatable modules that can be used for a commercial space station. I seem to recall that samples are already in orbit. They'll provide habitable space that is more resistant to dings and bumps than hardshell modules and can be launched in a variety of vehicles. I predict that there will be other companies building a variety of modules that can be put into orbit WHEN we get cheaper launch capabilities. (And there will be maintenance companies that keep said modules functional once they are up there.) Sponsorships may not be needed here, especially if the modules are used for rich tourists and zero-G manufacturing.

      Phase 4: Asteroid mining is one area where a company could make lots of money. Since businesses want to keep expenses low, they'll be designing and building lots of space-locked vehicles to do the job.

      At the same time, accidents will happen and there will be instances where asteroids, cargo ships and cometary remains may be bound for very fast reentry into Earth's atmosphere. This is where having an emergency response team to prevent the reentry would be essential. While it could be supported via sponsorships, it would be better if it were a governmental agency like the Coast Guard.

      This space based Coast Guard might even be able to pay for itself by doing asteroid and comet herding of natural threats.

      Phase 5: The space farms will probably start happening in Phase 3. Water, nutrients, seeds and space farm equipment will be launched at much lower costs than the NASA standard of $10K and put into special modules that are as automated as possible. Other modules will handle sewage and air scrubbing, reducing but not eliminating the need for supplies. Eventually there will be enough space farm capacity to eliminate most food launches, with exceptions like beef, tree based spices and things that don't grow in space. (In time this could be replaced by vat grown meat and high quality synthetics, but that technology isn't quite here yet.)

      There are all kinds of ways that this could be funded. While free enterprise can work, there will be governments that will design or buy space tech. And there is room for sponsorship based action too.

  25. What about the planet? by Chonnawonga · · Score: 1

    Hey, wait a minute. Space tourism is cool, and breaking governments' monopoly of space travel has its merits, but is no one concerned about the environmental damage this is going to wreak? Why is there no discussion of how much carbon these rockets are going to be spewing into all levels of the atmosphere?

    1. Re:What about the planet? by khallow · · Score: 1

      Why should we be concerned? I see neither a good demonstration that global warming is serious enough to warrant hindering the global economy or that something important but with a low carbon footprint like space launch should be subject to carbon emission regulation. This has all been discussed before.

    2. Re:What about the planet? by TooMuchToDo · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure what fuel SpaceX and Virgin Galactic use, but the US Space Shuttle burns primarily hydrogen/oxygen via it's three main engines (the SRBs use a solid propellant whose name escapes me at the moment). If we continue to use hydrogen/oxygen for sub-orbital/orbital launches, we should be fine as long as we have low-carbon methods of generating the hydrogen from water (nuclear, solar, etc).

  26. Eh by khallow · · Score: 1

    This troll is tired. It's simple. If a resources is exhausted, we'll switch to a resource that isn't exhausted. Also, we're putting plenty of money into alternative energy and even "sustainable" growth. And we don't put out huge amounts of greenhouse gasses to send the richest sliver on short tourist trips.

    1. Re:Eh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This troll is tired. It's simple. If a resources is exhausted, we'll switch to a resource that isn't exhausted.

      Yes, when all the animals are gone, we will just start eating plastics! And instead of beautiful nature we have concrete. Simple.

      And we don't put out huge amounts of greenhouse gasses to send the richest sliver on short tourist trips.

      Oh really? "Air travel is the world's fastest growing source of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, which cause climate change. Globally the world's 16,000 commercial jet aircraft generate more than 700 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2), the world's major greenhouse gas, per year." And this was 2005, it is even worse today. Source.

      And now we are going to add space travel to that? You aren't very bright, are you?

    2. Re:Eh by khallow · · Score: 1

      Oh really? "Air travel is the world's fastest growing source of greenhouse gases like carbon dioxide, which cause climate change. Globally the world's 16,000 commercial jet aircraft generate more than 700 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (CO2), the world's major greenhouse gas, per year." And this was 2005, it is even worse today. Source.

      What's the relevance here? Air travel is a vital portion of humanity's travel infrastructure not rich people tooling around for their vacations. And it doesn't generate much CO2 compared to everything else out there. We can start by cutting less important sources of carbon emissions like deforestation and coal fires.

      And now we are going to add space travel to that? You aren't very bright, are you?

      What's the problem? Commercial space travel is a high value operation. Even putting rich people in space for a few days is more important that most of the stuff that money buys. I'm not inclined to sacrifice it just to feed hysteria.

      Let me put it another way. Here's my ranking of what's important on Earth: intelligent beings, the legal and industrial infrastructure that maintains human technological society, the resources that feed this society, and the Earth's ecosystems. In that order. If someone makes me starkly chose between human society and preserving the natural world. I will chose human society. Not because humans are special, though they are. But because humans are intelligence and have used that intelligence to build something never seen before in the history of Earth. Even if this truly is another era of great mass extinctions, Earth's environment can recover from that. But throwing away a technological society may be more permanent.

      Having said that, things change for me when we have a thriving space presence. Then we can move the ecologically harmful human endeavors from Earth into space where there is no ecosystem to harm. If that movement means a little more short term harm to the environment, then it is well worth the price.

    3. Re:Eh by Eternauta3k · · Score: 1

      As long as space travel is restricted to the very rich, its contribution to greenhouse gases will be negligible. Besides, how does space travel kill animals (which, if necessary, we can replace with non-extinct animals like fish, or vegetables)?

      --
      Yeah. Would you choose a neurosurgeon who pokes around people's brains in his spare time? I wouldn't.
  27. Ob. skepticism by Robaato · · Score: 2, Interesting

    So, if Rutan, Virgin Galactic, and Scaled Composites are aiming for orbital flights, will they have to redesign the spacecraft from scratch?

    Why SpaceShipOne Never Did, Never Will, And None Of Its Direct Descendants Ever Will, Orbit The Earth

    1. Re:Ob. skepticism by shadowbearer · · Score: 1

      Well, considering that Burt Rutan has been designed aircraft and spacecraft "from scratch" from day one, I'd have to say Yes, that's exactly what they have to do.

        Of course they are also relying on more than a half century of manned spaceflight; the data from those flights hasn't exactly been kept a secret.

        Your link assumes the companies won't advance their designs, as is common in engineering endeavorers. The person who wrote this has what I'd call an extreme amount of ignorance when it comes to technological advancement. She seems to assume that actual orbital and beyond orbital spaceflight is beyond the capabilities of private corporations, ignoring the fact that it was private corporations who built all the spacecraft that have flown so far (at least in this country) and who in fact have produced many of the innovations that make it possible.

        This is extremely foolish. The only real obstacle to private manned spaceflight right now is funding - and that's something one can't predict. It's certainly not engineering, as we've already been there, and done that. It's funding, and return on investment.

        As the human race keeps growing and looking for new resources, it's likely that two things may happen - either we push ourselves into space, taking advantage of the near-infinite resources out there, or we don't. If we do, then this whole conversation will be moot. If we don't, we'll die off in our own waste, since we haven't demonstrated any real will towards taking care of those wastes.

        The two simplest of all solutions. Which one shall it be?

        I'll assume you are young and haven't followed the options we have to their logical conclusion.

      SB

      --
      It's old. The more humans I meet, the more I like my cats. At least they are honest.
    2. Re:Ob. skepticism by Robaato · · Score: 1

      Your link assumes the companies won't advance their designs, as is common in engineering endeavorers. The person who wrote this has what I'd call an extreme amount of ignorance when it comes to technological advancement. She seems to assume that actual orbital and beyond orbital spaceflight is beyond the capabilities of private corporations, ignoring the fact that it was private corporations who built all the spacecraft that have flown so far (at least in this country) and who in fact have produced many of the innovations that make it possible.
      Did you actually read the whole article? The author herself points out that "Private industry already really runs the rocketry market." She then cites examples of companies and rockets both built upon previous models, and designed from scratch.

      Her point is not that private corporations can't do orbital launches -- show me where she said that. Her point is that the particular line of design that produced SpaceShip One is a dead end, and that designing a rocket for LEO operations is an order of magnitude more complex.

      I'll assume that you are young and jumped to a conclusion unwarranted by what was actually written.
  28. Premature by dutchd00d · · Score: 1

    However, the report states that Spaceship 2 is 50% complete and White Knight 2 is 60% complete.

    Well, you know what they say: the first 90% takes 90% of the time. The last 10% also takes 90% of the time.

    Could be a while yet.

  29. Apples and oranges by DerekLyons · · Score: 1
    From the summary:
     

    In addition, Virgin Galactic is considering using White Knight 2, or possible its successor White Knight 3, to put small satellites in orbit for a cost of US$3 million, less than half the current front runner in (projected) low cost orbital launches; SpaceX's Falcon at US$6.7 million.

    That's a bit of a nonsensical comparison. The small satellites White Knight will able to launch will be a fraction of the size of that which could be launched by Falcon. Kinda like saying "I'm going to use a Vespa for package delivery because it is cheaper than a panel van".
    1. Re:Apples and oranges by TooMuchToDo · · Score: 1

      I think Elon Musk is a great guy for starting SpaceX. When you decided "Hey, I want to colonize Mars.", find out the launch costs are way too high, and then decide to lower launch costs by doing your own development, that's just a fantastic thing to do I think.

  30. Re:Michale Vick Sentence: 72 months in Prison by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not only way off topic, (what does vick have to do with spaceships) but he was sentenced to 23 months... and actually he wouldn't have got less for killing a person, becuase if he did have 72 months, he'd be eligible for parole earlier than he would for a murder sentence... Grow a brain... I thought this was a "news for nerds" place, and generally nerds, geeks, whatever you prefer, are generally smart...

  31. Re:How come we bypassed the year of the flying car by Zerbey · · Score: 1

    They already exist... landings are still problematic, however. All you need is a good high cliff.

  32. Re:Space Tourism = cheap by TooMuchToDo · · Score: 1

    Hopefully we can start getting mass into orbit faster and cheaper. I loathe the idea of being stuck in this gravity well when we run out of cheap energy.

  33. Yawn. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Wake me up when Virgin Trains run on time in the UK.

  34. It's only a Flesh Wound! by StCredZero · · Score: 1
  35. yea, 2008. Sure. by nilbog · · Score: 1

    Yea, I also heard this is the year they're going to release Duke Nukem Forever and Spore. We're also going to see jetpacks, a cure for diabetes, AIDs, cancer, and a stronger unicorn.

    --
    or else!
  36. The Catch by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The catch is... if you go up as a tourist, you will be assisting in deploying the satellite. It's actually an outsourcing scheme for free labor.

  37. Space? what space? orbit is not space!!! by master_p · · Score: 1

    Every time I hear the big words 'space', 'space tourism', 'commercial space flight' etc I can't stop thinking how limited we are in our capabilities. Going to space means being able to visit at least our companion planetoid, the Moon, but we can't even do that...