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Hairy Solar Cells Could Mean Higher Efficiency

kitzilla writes "Two research groups working independently have come up with what they say are cheap processes for growing nanowires to be used with solar cells. The 'hairy' cells provide a direct path for electrons collected at the panel face to reach an electrode, something which has the potential to dramatically improve system efficiency."

203 comments

  1. Not first by jack2000 · · Score: 0, Funny

    Any one who writes first deserves to be banned! Also who sees this to be the hair of cyborgs...

    1. Re:Not first by beav007 · · Score: 4, Funny

      Hairyness makes everything better. I mean, just look at me...

    2. Re:Not first by Striikerr · · Score: 1

      Sadly any gains for hairiness is lost due to the sweater effect on your chest, shoulders and back. (also referred to as the Wookie Effect).

  2. Anonymous Coward by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

    solar cells are pn junctions and DO NOT Collect electrons. i am to lazy to get into solid state theory right now. so go figure how exactly pv cells work.

    1. Re:Anonymous Coward by QuasiEvil · · Score: 5, Informative

      AC's got it right. For those who are TLTRTFM (Too Lazy To ...), what the poster should have said is that they help channel charge carriers away from the junction so that they don't immediately recombine. *That* is one of the holy grails of PV design, and one of the reasons that current production cells are incredibly inefficient.

    2. Re:Anonymous Coward by cyfer2000 · · Score: 1

      But this is conducting polymer based PV, those semiconductor nanowires are used as electrodes. The polymer based PV works in a different way of traditional silicon based PV. A photon can excite an electron-hole pair on the polymer back bone, which is somewhat similar to the traditional PV. But the electron-hole pair in polymer based PV doesn't dissociated, and the electron-hole pair can travel together for about 10-20nm by diffusion and then recombine. The way to get the energy out of the polymer is to use a electron or hole collector to separate the electron-hole pair. In TFA, the silicon nanowires are used as electron collectors (or electrode). So the AC got it wrong actually.

      It is impossible to use semiconductor nanowires alone as PVs. You can simply calculate the size of depletion region and effect of surface recombination, then you will realize it is impossible.

      And there are many problems with polymer based PVs. They degrade when they are exposed to sunshine due to the UV light in sunshine. Their performance degrade to zero in several hours if they are exposed to air. So personally, I don't put to much trust on the 3-5 years thing.

      --
      There is a spark in every single flame bait point.
  3. Let me guess... by kiick · · Score: 5, Funny
    They expect to have something ready in 3 to 5 years.

    If every solar cell advance that was announced actually led to improvements of solar cells you could actually buy, then they would be 99.9999999% efficient and cost less than crackers.

    But I'm not bitter, nooooooo.

    1. Re:Let me guess... by frying_fish · · Score: 4, Informative

      Slight problem at the moment is band gap, and tuning a semiconductor to have the appropriate bandgap that will cover the visible spectrum. Currently there is no single device that is sensitive to the whole visible spectrum, but there is research into this. This is one of the major reasons for the low efficiency in solar cells.

    2. Re:Let me guess... by chuckymonkey · · Score: 3, Informative

      Personally I love solar voltaic panels with a little of that canned cheese on them. On a more serious note, why do people not focus on the tech that we have now? For instance if you want solar the solar thermal systems are pretty cheap to build and have decent efficiency. I just don't get why everyone is so stuck on solar voltaic which is as someone else said in a perpetual early adoption stage when a good chunk of baseline power could be provided by solar thermal.

      --
      "Some books contain the machinery required to create and sustain universes."-Tycho
    3. Re:Let me guess... by tepples · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Currently there is no single device that is sensitive to the whole visible spectrum Then why not have some sort of dichroic reflector pass specific wavelengths to specific PV cell banks?
    4. Re:Let me guess... by CaptainPatent · · Score: 1

      Mmmmm, hairy crackers...

      </Homer Simpson>

      --
      Well, back to rejecting software patent applications.
    5. Re:Let me guess... by timmarhy · · Score: 1

      because solar thermal is even more of a joke than PV is....

      --
      If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
    6. Re:Let me guess... by AdamTrace · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Remember, solar power is generally available HERE and NOW.

      I just invested in a PV system for my house (in sunny SoCal). As a computer geek, I asked our guy if it was stupid to invest, since there always seem to be efficiency breakthroughs on the horizon.

      He reminded me that efficiency generally meant "smaller" and perhaps "cheaper". But since my roof was plenty adequate for what I needed, "smaller" wasn't really an issue. Cheaper will ALWAYS be the case, as it always has been.

      Don't get frozen by the thought that solar power isn't worth investing in today. It totally is.

      Adman

    7. Re:Let me guess... by rossy · · Score: 2, Funny

      ... then they would be 99.9999999% efficient and cost less than crackers. Yes, but would they be individually wrapped?
      --
      Ross Youngblood
    8. Re:Let me guess... by WhiteDragon · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Currently there is no single device that is sensitive to the whole visible spectrum Then why not have some sort of dichroic reflector pass specific wavelengths to specific PV cell banks? Good idea, but someone beat you to it
      --
      Did you mount a military-grade, variable-focus MASER on an unlicensed artificial intelligence?
    9. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      Mmmmm, hairy crackers... Fantasizing about us white guys again?
    10. Re:Let me guess... by ShieldW0lf · · Score: 1

      This new technology has a liability in that it breaks down when exposed to air, but if they could be manufactured and deployed in space, they might prove very effective. I find that a lot more interesting than the liquid salt solutions, personally. Cool shit.

      --
      -1 Uncomfortable Truth
    11. Re:Let me guess... by CrackedButter · · Score: 0

      True I can agree with this, I'm ready to plunk down some cash on a powermonkey and powerchimp for my needs and around the corner is an even bigger version to complement my future purchase. www.powermonkey.com

    12. Re:Let me guess... by Belial6 · · Score: 3, Funny

      Sounds just like computers. I need to get one of those one of these days. Just as soon as they stop getting smaller and cheaper.

    13. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Ha I was just shopping around for solar panels maybe 6 months ago and it would have taken 35 years for them to pay for themselves in energy if they even lasted that long.

    14. Re:Let me guess... by Tweenk · · Score: 4, Insightful

      a good chunk of baseline power could be provided by solar thermal. Baseline power is the minimal power required during the day, so it has to be supplied constantly. Solar thermal plant output drops to 0 watts at night unless you use some means of energy storage, and is severely reduced during the winter or when there are thick clouds, so they're not suited to supplying baseline power unless a reliable means of storing huge amounts of energy with little loss is developed. For now, the only feasible baseline power plants are hydro, nuclear and fossil.

      Generally solar is good as long as the sky is clear. Imagine what would happen to a 100% solar economy hit by a month of thick clouds. I don't think relying on something as random as the weather for your main energy supply is a good idea. It's OK e.g. when you want to power farm machines, because if there's no power you can wait, but powering cities with it doesn't seem wise. I also think that green activists should stop pretending they can do without nuclear power (at least those of them that do), because right now they can't, and telling everybody not to invest in nuclear and wait until we come up with adequate energy storage technology is making the global warming worse by preventing substantial CO2 emission reductions.
      --
      Those who would give up liberty to obtain working drivers, deserve neither liberty nor working drivers.
    15. Re:Let me guess... by Dishevel · · Score: 1

      ... then they would be 99.9999999% efficient and cost less than crackers. Yes, but would they be individually wrapped? My crackers come 2 to a package. :)
      --
      Why is it so hard to only have politicians for a few years, then have them go away?
    16. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Do you even know how to factor in predicted increases in energy costs?

    17. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Not only here and now. I started homesteading in 1979 and been off the grid, but not without power since then -- the tech was already good enough insofar as solar panels go. Batteries, on the other hand...we do OK with what there is. What makes good panels (such as I have) expensive is not the silicon part. It's all the rest, which has made my panels last from then until now, still performing like new -- I couldn't guess the eventual lifetime. All it's going to take is more people putting their money where their mouth is, instead of using theoretical improvements as an excuse to wait forever.

      My systems now run a campus with 4 buildings, a large computer network, a machine shop, an electroplating line (not all at once, there's only a couple of us to use it all). Is that finally good enough? Not to the oil trolls, the people who won't pay for power upfront, or who think that if we just tax those other guys enough (and who pays for that, really?) someday soon I'll be able to buy a magic box to clip to the antenna on my Toyota and it will the run on freely available hydrogen...I have permits for all kinds of dangerous things -- but can't even buy hydrogen, evidently in reality it's more dangerous than guns, high explosives, various chemistries...the list goes on.

      Don't slashdot me all at once at
      www.coultersmithing.com

    18. Re:Let me guess... by Oktober+Sunset · · Score: 1

      Waiting for cheaper can be a fallacy too tho, if you buy today and then in 5 years time, the price drops, well, you have been selling electricity for 5 years already, so how much did you make in the meantime?

    19. Re:Let me guess... by H0D_G · · Score: 1

      Because reflectors can cause energy loss. better way to tune a semiconductor is using controlled dimensionality- use Quantum Dots.

      --
      Kids! Bringing about Armageddon can be dangerous. Do not attempt it in your home!
    20. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hopefully not.. that's a big waste of packaging (probably petroleum based plastic).

    21. Re:Let me guess... by evilviper · · Score: 1

      For instance if you want solar the solar thermal systems are pretty cheap to build and have decent efficiency.

      If you're talking about passive solar heating... They're an okay option, but don't provide any cooling (which is needed most when it's sunny out). What's more, as PV panels keep getting more efficient, so too do heat-pumps, which require electricity, not heat (...ignoring inefficient and expensive gas absorption units).

      If you're talking about generating electricity via steam or the like, the laws of thermodynamics don't work out well with such small (single-household) installations, and besides that, require maintenance. On an industrial scale, these work well, and are slowly being developed and invested in now that energy prices are so high.

      --
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    22. Re:Let me guess... by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      This is almost exactly the argument I used to convince some people to finally jump on the computer wagon.

      Sure, it'll be cheaper and more powerful in the future. But they were running a business and the expected savings would pay for the systems in less than two years with an expected lifespan of at least five.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    23. Re:Let me guess... by arotenbe · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Thus proving something everyone on Slashdot already knew: when it comes to rapidly advancing technology, patents do nothing but move the state of the art back 10 or 20 years.

      --
      Tomato wedge sperm darts that are Republican.
    24. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Thank you thank you thank you! I've lost count of the number of times I've heard the "solar is almost ready, but it's only x% efficient, so best to wait a little longer when it'll be cheaper/smaller/whatever" argument repeated over the years. Yes, just like any other technology solar cells will get better as time goes by... so the "don't buy until we reach nirvana in $\lim n \to \infty$ years time" argument can be equally applied to pretty much any technology. Like, say, computers, cars, refrigerators, home theater systems and microwave ovens. So would you indefinitely delay purchase of the items on this list in response to this argument? Of course not! If the technology does the job, then you buy it. This applies to to cars, to computers, to microwave ovens... and to solar cells.

    25. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As described, the filters would not help. Filters, by nature, only pass a portion of the spectrum fed to them. The light reflected (in the case of dichroic filters) cannot be put to use by the photovoltaic device. Now, absorption and re-emission in a usable frequency range, as mentioned in a post below, would be beneficial.

    26. Re:Let me guess... by g0dsp33d · · Score: 1

      Wouldn't micro (nano?) bands of prisms and repeating strips of particular frequency sensitive solar panels work as well?

      --
      lol: You see no door there!
    27. Re:Let me guess... by Anne_Nonymous · · Score: 1

      >> But I'm not bitter, nooooooo.

      So you're saying they can take their hairy solar cells and stick 'em where the sun don't shine?

    28. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      >> If the technology does the job, then you buy it.

      Only if it is the cheapest way to solve the problem. Until the cost of fossil fuels goes up (some more) it's still a cheaper way to generate energy than solar is. Personally, I'd like to see a huge tax on energy to encourage this to happen sooner, but until the crossover, forget it.

    29. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Hydroelectric power plants need not provide base load constantly. They can be stopped and started very quickly and provide a great way of evening out power supply. Generate power from wind when it blows , from the sun when it shines and top up the power supply from hydro when it is needed at other times.

    30. Re:Let me guess... by H0D_G · · Score: 1

      too much effort to tune the directionality of the prisms. best way would to have a repeating pattern of Quantum Dots receptive to a particular frequency, and then just pack as many on to the surface as possible. even though a given particle could only absorb a given frequency, the reflection off of the particles could cause radiation to disperse through the surface. this method is better as it's a) simpler and b) doesn't leave surface real estate taken up by crystals.

      --
      Kids! Bringing about Armageddon can be dangerous. Do not attempt it in your home!
    31. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A couple problems with the computer analogy...

      - PV prices haven't always gone down. In fact, a couple of manufacturers just announced substantial price increases.

      - Usually when you replace an old computer with a new faster, cheaper one the old one becomes obsolete and essentially useless. But PV panels continue to produce power for 50 plus years. You just add the new better ones to your existing system.

    32. Re:Let me guess... by jelle · · Score: 1

      The nice thing about solar is that its peak production pretty much is extremely similar to the demands for air-conditioning, and looking at my power bill (it's hot a lot), that means about three-quarters of my electricity needs... btw, the size and distribution of clouds mean that the sky is always clear somewhere, and the equation then simply becomes a matter of power distribution cost and oversupply for above-average uncloudy days...

      --
      --- Hindsight is 20/20, but walking backwards is not the answer.
    33. Re:Let me guess... by MrKaos · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      For now, the only feasible baseline power plants are hydro, nuclear and fossil.
      Why is it that in any conversation about alternative sources of energy someone will mention Nuclear power as "feasible", "sustainable" or any other optamistic decriptor that, based on a critical examination of nuclear power, clearly isn't the case?

      So before I have another drawn out conversation with yet another Nuclear Shill that hasn't done any actual research of the entire nuclear process, from Mining to long term isotope storage (or "waste") to an examination of any actual Net energy benefit from the nuclear process, let me summarise by simply saying that Nuclear power is barely practical let alone feasible.

      and telling everybody not to invest in nuclear and wait until we come up with adequate energy storage technology is making the global warming worse by preventing substantial CO2 emission reductions.
      Sorry, I meant obviously hasn't done any research because not only are there considerable CO2 emmissions from the energy used in the production of U-235 for reactor cores but also the CFC's leaked in the actual process are America's Number 1 source of CFC emmissions and are up to 20,000 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than C02.

      Nuclear Shills should stop pretending that Nuclear power is anything other than the unmitigated failure that it is which takes money and research resources away from projects like baseload solar thermal. S.T.P is revealing itself to be completely viable alternatives to coal based on the capability to store thermal energy long after the sun goes down. That is the whole point of solar thermal power after all.

      --
      My ism, it's full of beliefs.
    34. Re:Let me guess... by 10Ghz · · Score: 1

      Solar Thermal. You mean the stuff that is widely used in China, providing hot water to at least 30 million households there? Yep, sounds like a joke to me....

      --
      Lesbian Nazi Hookers Abducted by UFOs and Forced Into Weight Loss Programs - -all next week on Town Talk.
    35. Re:Let me guess... by iminplaya · · Score: 1

      Stuff in space gets beat up pretty bad also.

      --
      What?
    36. Re:Let me guess... by Ex-MislTech · · Score: 1

      PV is about 15-20% efficient.

      Thermal is currently 40% in some units,
      and a prototype achieved 60%.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_thermal#High-temperature_collectors

      Excerpt:

      As the temperature increases, different forms of conversion become practical. Up to 600ÂC, steam turbines, standard technology, have an efficiency up to 41%. Above this, gas turbines can be more efficient. Higher temperatures are problematic because different materials and techniques are needed. One proposal for very high temperatures is to use liquid fluoride salts operating above 1100ÂC, using multi-stage turbine systems to achieve 60% thermal efficiencies. [27]

      Large sections of the Sonora and Mojave have low or near
      zero life there, and could be used to scale up what the SEGS
      system is already doing.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEGS

      640 acres per sq mile, thus about 2.5 sq. miles so far
      for 350 MWatts.

      The Mojave at 22,000 sq miles:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mojave_Desert

      The Sonora at 120,000 sq miles:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sonora_desert

      At 10% ie. 14,000 sq miles, you'd get 5,600 times the power.

      Roughly 1.9 Tera Watts.

      All the worlds energy resources of all types combined for
      over 150 countries, oil, coal , nuclear, hydro was
      just 15 Tera Watts for 2005.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_resources_and_consumption

      So Thermal Solar is a bit more promising than you might think.

      What could be done with the Sahara alone is staggering.

      It could power all of Europe and Africa with power left over.

      3.5 million sq miles:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sahara_desert

      10 % of it is 350,000 sq miles and would be 25 times as powerful
      as the one above for about 50 Terawatts or over 3 times all
      power used on earth of all forms in 2005.

      --
      google "32 trillion offshore needs IRS attention"
    37. Re:Let me guess... by Ex-MislTech · · Score: 1

      Super heated oil storage is being used now.

      Super heated molten salt is being developed now.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molten_salt_battery

      http://www.ornl.gov/sci/scale/pubs/SOL-05-1048_1.pdf

      A hybrid of ORNL plans and the prior link could be the
      super solution to night energy storage.

      Especially if you could use something like a giant empty salt mine.

      http://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salt_mine

      --
      google "32 trillion offshore needs IRS attention"
    38. Re:Let me guess... by Ihlosi · · Score: 2, Informative
      PV is about 15-20% efficient.

      36% in concentrator cells, but they'll be stuck in the lab for quite a while, and will probably be infeasible for large installations.

      Thermal is currently 40% in some units, and a prototype achieved 60%.

      That's the efficiency of the turbine itself. The plant will have some additional losses (not all of the sunlight hitting the area of the plant will actually be collected, etc).

    39. Re:Let me guess... by Ex-MislTech · · Score: 1

      You can make your own hydrogen with various methods.

      Wikipedia will tell you how.

      Electrolysis of water is the most straight forward method.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrogen_production#Electrolysis

      The pond scum method will most likely be the cheapest at
      some point.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biological_hydrogen_production_(Algae)

      --
      google "32 trillion offshore needs IRS attention"
    40. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Why is it that in any conversation about alternative sources of energy someone will mention Nuclear power as "feasible", "sustainable" or any other optamistic decriptor that, based on a critical examination of nuclear power, clearly isn't the case? I imagine it's because based on a critical examination of nuclear power, it clearly is the case.

      long term isotope storage (or "waste") The "waste" of breeder reactors consists of relatively harmless elements (like lead) and radioactive substances with short half lives that within days decay into relatively harmless elements. And if you want to argue about breeders generating plutonium then by all means describe a disposal method for the plutonium from decommissioned bombs that guarantees it will never in its 24,000 year half life find its way into another bomb. My way is "destroying" it by using it as fuel in a reactor, which is the same place plutonium generated by breeders can go -- and in that case it can be salted with Pu-240 to ensure it can't be used in bomb making.

      considerable CO2 emmissions from the energy used in the production of U-235 for reactor cores As opposed to the CO2 emissions from the energy used in the production of, well, everything? Solar/wind/whatever included? That is, unless that energy comes from non-fossil sources -- which is the whole point of this exercise in the first place.

      CFC's leaked in the actual process are America's Number 1 source of CFC emmissions and are up to 20,000 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than C02. What is this, the 80s? CFCs were banned more than a decade ago in the US. They were used as a refrigerant in uranium processing just like they were used as a refrigerant in other applications prior to the ban. Now they use non-CFC refrigerants. Welcome to 1995.

      S.T.P is revealing itself to be completely viable alternatives to coal based on the capability to store thermal energy long after the sun goes down. That is the whole point of solar thermal power after all. How is it that you're ignoring the gp's point that solar thermal is hosed when you have a cloudy month? It certainly can't store thermal energy for that long. Forget about "put it in the desert" for the northeastern US. How do you propose to power New York City without its nuclear plants?
    41. Re:Let me guess... by mike2R · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Thus proving something everyone on Slashdot already knew: when it comes to rapidly advancing technology, patents do nothing but move the state of the art back 10 or 20 years.

      I don't see its proved anything of the sort to be honest. Unless the poster who made the original suggestion is in a position to bring this product to market himself, and was willing to make what I assume would be a large investment to do so without the benefit of any patent protection, then no one has lost anything. On the flip side the patent holder may be able to find an investor willing to back development of the technology; it would be considerably harder to do so if the investor knew that if the product was a success, they'd have to very quickly face competitors selling identical products who didn't have to make as large an initial investment.

      Disclaimer: I know crap all about solar power or the validity or utility of this particular patent; I'm just trying to make a distinction between the development of software and that of physical inventions.

      --
      This sig all sigs devours
    42. Re:Let me guess... by Lodragandraoidh · · Score: 1

      Rarely, if ever, is the whole continent covered with clouds. If we are talking about a system to pump energy into the grid for far flung cities, why not build a dispersed grid of these solar collectors?

      This way, the ones that are socked-in could be backed up by the ones that are not.

      This could also be said for wind and hydro power, which to a certain extent are all dependent upon mother nature.

      --

      Lodragan Draoidh
      The more you explain it, the more I don't understand it. - Mark Twain
    43. Re:Let me guess... by Starcub · · Score: 1

      If you're talking about generating electricity via steam or the like, the laws of thermodynamics don't work out well with such small (single-household) installations,
      You don't know what you're talking about. Solar thermal is an integral part of modern high efficiency home power solutions primarily because electricity is extremely inefficient at generating heat. At the other end of the spectrum, low energy solar which is good for generating heat is not that great for use in PV panels because of opposing charge recombination losses, which is what nano-wire collection/channeling grids are used to prevent. Optimum use of solar energy isn't and either/or proposition.
    44. Re:Let me guess... by MrKaos · · Score: 1

      I imagine it's because based on a critical examination of nuclear power by Anonymous Coward, it clearly is the case.

      *groan* so now Nuclear shills are AC's, how pathetic. Did you post as A.C so you could mod your own post as Interesting, how very creative of you.

      The "waste" of breeder reactors consists of relatively harmless elements (like lead) and radioactive substances with short half lives that within days decay into relatively harmless elements.

      ?!?!What?!?!, uh no, actinides are highly radioactive with half lives of around 600 years.

      And if you want to argue about breeders generating plutonium then by all means describe a disposal

      *sigh* first of all while our current level of material sciences and technology cannot produce a safe nuclear reactor, perhaps one day we can (or use it in space craft) which is why I said "long term isotope storage". Plutonium, whilst deadly is also extremely valuable.

      method for the plutonium from decommissioned bombs that guarantees it will never in its 24,000 year half life find its way into another bomb

      No problem, don't mine uranium in the first place, which also eliminates the toxic mine tailings, the energetic costs of demolishing the reactor when it is decommissioned, etc etc etc. And I'm more concerned with radioactive products created by exposure to plutonium finding their way into the water table.

      My way is "destroying" it by using it as fuel in a reactor, which is the same place plutonium generated by breeders can go -- and in that case it can be salted with Pu-240 to ensure it can't be used in bomb making.

      Your Way,,, what way, you have described nothing AND all proposals for current reactors use a once through cycle. Show me a link to a proposed breeder reactor planned for construction for commercial power generation. Clearly, you are a bullshiter.

      As opposed to the CO2 emissions from the energy used in the production of, well, everything? Solar/wind/whatever included?

      Except the difference is that CO2 and other greenhouse gas production for nuclear is an ongoing consequence of making fissionable reactor fuel, whereas they are one time inputs for solar/wind/wave.

      What is this, the 80s? CFCs were banned more than a decade ago in the US. They were used as a refrigerant in uranium processing just like they were used as a refrigerant in other applications prior to the ban. Now they use non-CFC refrigerants. Welcome to 1995.

      Oh come on, clearly you live in fantasy land. You expect me to believe that USEC phased out CFC 114 use when they have access to a valid military exemption under the authority of the DOE, and that the last available data in 1999 revealed that over 800000 pounds of CFC 114 was released into the atmosphere. Since subsequent data is not available AND prototype designs of the new centrifuge were only finalised in 2007 it's not to much of a stretch to conclude that CFC 114 is still very much in use in the enrichment facilities. But you don't have to believe me here are the words of a USEC spokesperson in 2001

      'Yes, you do have this issue with (CFC-114 and) enrichment,'' said Elizabeth Stuckle, spokeswoman for the company. ''But we are also looking to replace this technology with a new technology toward the end of this decade. Unfortunately this is a necessary thing, because these are the only enrichment facilities that this country had. We don't want to become dependant on foreign enrichment.''

      According to the EPA's toxic release inventory, a giant public database of self-reported pollution totals, the Paducah and Ohio plants released 818,000 pounds of CFC-114 in 1999. That's 88 percent of the national total of industrial sources, and 14 percent of an international industry estimate of all CFC114 emissions worldwide. That was 1999, I don'

      --
      My ism, it's full of beliefs.
    45. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually solar is a much better match for peak power then base load. Peak is summer with the sun shinning brightly. It's almost a perfect match. Of course solar thermal could easily be backed up with some time of fuel, since the output of the collector is hot water. As far as the intermittency of renewable energy, it's a bit of a red herring. Some will tend to be load based, like solar, others will balance each other out, and finally an electron sink such as electrolysis will solve almost all of the remaining problems. If you size the system so that the minimum output covers all of the needs then the worse case is covered. During average or peak times just use the excess electricity to create hydrogen, which can then be shipped via pipeline. The hydrogen can also be used to heat water in areas where the sun isn't shinning. If an extraordinary even occurs, then just replace the hydrogen with natural gas. Even if you only design for 80% coverage of renewables, you just cut your consumption by 80% of nonrenewables. Seems like a really good start to me.

    46. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think because solar promises power without delivery infrastructure which could be important in developing countries, I'm not sure if cost analysis normally takes delivery into account.

    47. Re:Let me guess... by evilviper · · Score: 1

      electricity is extremely inefficient at generating heat.

      This is utter nonsense.

      First off, it's simply not theoretically possible for electric heating to be "inefficient"... Even the oldest, simplest, resistive heating elements have damn near 100% efficiency.

      Secondly, resistive heating isn't the state of the art. Heat pumps are up to 5:1, meaning you get, essentially, 500% efficiency from electricity. The Department of Energy has an ongoing program trying to help further develop, and encourage the use of heat pumps in water heaters, automobiles, etc. etc.

      When heat pumps are combined with geothermal, you get the cheapest and most efficient heating/cooling solutions known to humanity.
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    48. Re:Let me guess... by tepples · · Score: 1

      The light reflected (in the case of dichroic filters) cannot be put to use by the photovoltaic device. Unless it's reflected into another PV device sensitive to a different frequency band.
    49. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      hi,

      this idea was freaking obvious to everyone, and i mean everyone, who knows anything about optics. it is by no means patentworthy.

      in conclusion, take your ideas about intellectual property and shove them back up where they came from (or dispose of them properly)

    50. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      *groan* so now Nuclear shills are AC's, how pathetic. Did you post as A.C so you could mod your own post as Interesting, how very creative of you.

      Resorting to baseless accusations and the ad hom fallacy is hardly conducive to the discussion.

      actinides are highly radioactive with half lives of around 600 years.

      The actinides produced are either fissionable or can be bred into fissionable elements, and then used as fuel. They aren't "waste."

      first of all while our current level of material sciences and technology cannot produce a safe nuclear reactor, perhaps one day we can (or use it in space craft) which is why I said "long term isotope storage". Plutonium, whilst deadly is also extremely valuable.

      You're missing the point. I bring up plutonium because people complain that constructing breeders will produce it, but I make the two points that breeders can be configured to produce non-weapons grade plutonium and that we already have weapons grade plutonium we have to dispose. Plutonium can be used as nuclear fuel and by eliminating it we reduce the proliferation risk, but only if we build suitable reactors.

      No problem, don't mine uranium in the first place

      Did you even read what I wrote? I said plutonium from decommissioned bombs. It has already been mined. It's weapons grade plutonium. You can't just bury it in a hole in the ground and hope nobody ever finds it. You can put it in a reactor and use it as fuel. If you don't want to do that then what do you propose to do with it?

      And I'm more concerned with radioactive products created by exposure to plutonium finding their way into the water table.

      Take a drive through New Jersey and look at the chemical plants sometime. They process toxic materials all day long on the industrial scale and yet I can still drink the water, because there are regulations in place to ensure containment. The regulations in place on the nuclear industry are even more stringent despite the fact that the toxicity of nuclear materials is no greater than less stringently regulated chemical toxins. You can also throw in the fact that "radioactive" and "dangerous" are not synonyms. A bag of coffee beans, a bottle of vegetable oil and a smoke detector are all radioactive but you'll hardly get cancer from having them around your house.

      Show me a link to a proposed breeder reactor planned for construction for commercial power generation.

      You mean like this?

      Except the difference is that CO2 and other greenhouse gas production for nuclear is an ongoing consequence of making fissionable reactor fuel, whereas they are one time inputs for solar/wind/wave.

      Nonsense logic. All construction has a finite lifetime after which it must be upgraded or replaced. Solar and wind have ongoing CO2 costs because plant and equipment must be replaced as it ages and fails. And you're still making the assumption that the energy used for processing has to come from fossil sources while, again, the entire point of this exercise is to replace them.

      You expect me to believe that USEC phased out CFC 114 use when they have access to a valid military exemption under the authority of the DOE, and that the last available data in 1999 revealed that over 800000 pounds of CFC 114 was released into the atmosphere. Since subsequent data is not available AND prototype designs of the new centrifuge were only finalised in 2007 it's not to much of a stretch to conclude that CFC 114 is still very much in use in the enrichment facilities.

      Now you're arguing against the implementation rather than the concept. You already know what the solution is: Revoke the exemption and retrofit any existing facilities so that they no longer use CFCs. It isn't that it can't be done, it's that it wasn't being done. Congratulations, you've successfully convinced

    51. Re:Let me guess... by Starcub · · Score: 1

      Even the oldest, simplest, resistive heating elements have damn near 100% efficiency.
      Key to recognizing the problem is recognizing that any conversion process is going to result in a net loss of some magnitude, %100 conversion efficiency is theoretically the best you can possibly hope for. If you convert from solar to electric (which is only %40 at present) to heat, you are not going to get the efficiency you would if you went directly from solar to heat. However, since solar energy is 'free', is doesn't really matter how efficient the conversion process is -- it will add to the net energy efficiency, especially where heat pumps are used in conjuction with solar heating. And heat pumps are only about 2-3 times as efficient as conventional resistive heaters which aren't anywhere near %100 efficient at converting elecricity into heat, so I don't know where you are getting your figures from.
    52. Re:Let me guess... by evilviper · · Score: 1

      If you convert from solar to electric (which is only %40 at present) to heat, you are not going to get the efficiency you would if you went directly from solar to heat.

      40% is going to require ridiculously expensive PV panels, which aren't common at all.

      And direct solar heating isn't remotely 100% efficient, either. I'd say you should be happy with 60% in a good installation. It is, however, rather cheap.

      conventional resistive heaters which aren't anywhere near %100 efficient at converting elecricity into heat,

      A thought experiment for you. In simple resistive electric heating coils... where does the wasted electricity go? I'll wait...

      And heat pumps are only about 2-3 times as efficient as conventional resistive heaters

      The 4:1 is more common, but the best heat-pumps available today are rated at 5:1... and can be reasonably easily found for installation in your home. That ratio isn't relative to any other device (like an electric heater), but relative to the amount of energy (electricity) put it. ie. a 5:1 heat-pump moves 5 watts of heat for every 1 watt put it.

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    53. Re:Let me guess... by MrKaos · · Score: 1

      Resorting to baseless accusations and the ad hom fallacy is hardly conducive to the discussion.

      Your the one debating as A.C which lends scope to that very behavior so you can hardly blame me for pointing it out.

      They aren't "waste."

      I didn't refer to them as waste thats why I used brackets (or waste), to me actinides have more manageable half lives than transuranics even if they are significantly more radioactive. You said "The "waste" of breeder reactors consists of relatively harmless elements (like lead) and radioactive substances with short half lives that within days decay into relatively harmless elements." which misrepresents that fissile ash MOSTLY contains highly radioactive elements with half lives beyond 500 years and that the mass of that fissile ash is less than one percent of mass of the fuel core.

      I bring up plutonium because people complain that constructing breeders will produce it,

      Exponentially, thats the little bit you leave out though. And without a proper, geologically stable repository it is completely inappropriate to consider the constructions of ANY TYPE of reactor. Want to advocate for Nuclear power then advocate a storage facility and appropriate support infrastructure to deal with an elements that are toxic into the 100's of thousands years. Be responsible for and handle it in our generation, not someone else's.

      You're missing the point.

      No, you're not telling me anything I don't already know. You may be referring to an IFR type reactor or some other breeder that has a isotope burn rate of greater than .3% of the mass of the fuel core, but you don't. I reiterate that material sciences have not progressed to the stage where we can produce a safe nuclear reactor preferably that can convert transuranics to actinides at around 20% of the mass of the fuel core with a reactor lifespan much longer than 40 years. Yet you ignore this argument because it attacks your belief that nuclear power is viable. And I haven't even got into a discussion about factoring in the enegy expenditure related to decommissioning the reactor yet.

      Did you even read what I wrote? I said plutonium from decommissioned bombs.....If you don't want to do that then what do you propose to do with it?

      Yes I read it, I know what you are getting at but you're ignoring the fact that over 90% of reactors are once through cycle and do not recognise that a reactor has a life span of roughly forty years before embrittlement of the operational components present a logistical nightmare for disposal AND that these dead reactors have things like cobalt 55 and Iron 90 and other isotopes we haven't even identified, why do you think it's called CRUD.

      Further you ignore the fact that all reactors leak, and venting is approved by the NRC. Those radioactive elements find their way into the foodchain concentrating the further up they go (bio-accumulate is the term) until the reach organisms like us.

      You can also throw in the fact that "radioactive" and "dangerous" are not synonyms.

      Both are scales that start at "not very" and end in "fatal".

      You mean like this [hinduonnet.com]?

      Specifically I said planned for construction for commercial power generation NOT a prototype, but I'll go with it. India has a litany of failed breeder projects and a horrendous safety issues. The reactor you link to is a producer of Pu239 with absolutely no reference to mixing Pu240, and converts U238 to more Pu239. Having that much radioactive sodium in an area that has already been flooded by a tsunami, especially as the reactor ages, corrodes and embrittles seems like an accident waiting to happen. The overwhelming irony is you talk about bombs and then refer to a country making reactor projects producing Pu239 that haven't sig

      --
      My ism, it's full of beliefs.
    54. Re:Let me guess... by Starcub · · Score: 1

      If you want to maximize your overall efficiency then you need to compare efficiency of each contributor under the various conditions under which they will be used. I'm not saying that heat pumps don't help, they do, but I see them as one part of a total home solution. Note that for some houses, heat pumps aren't capable of providing enough heat in cold weather conditions. This is why some other alternative (traditionally fullfilled by resistive heaters) is still needed.

      Where do you get 5:1 from? Everything I've read suggests an average of 2:1.

      The efficiency of heat pumps is dependent upon the heat available in the ambient environment as pumps must run for longer periods in order to maintain room temp in colder environments. Heat pumps also require electricity to run and grid eletricity has to be generated and transported to the home. Both generation from some natural resource, and transport, incur losses which impact overall efficiency. Solar electricity and solar thermal are generated directly at the home. Solar thermal is used to heat both water and the home where modern homes use a pipe grid system in the flooring to move heat throughout the house.

      Resistive heaters waste a lot of electricity generating heat from electricity as compared to powering non resistive devices. Not only does it require a large amount of current to generate heat, but not all of the radiation produced in heater coils is in the low energy heat band. Here I'm taking about efficiency only of converting electricity into heat. However overall efficiency considers the additional factors that I mentioned earlier: losses that accrue from electricity generation (conversion) at the source, and transport. Modern homes that employ solar and solar thermal are highly efficient overall because there is no work that goes into the production of the source energy (which, unlike electricity from the grid, is why I said it is 'free'). Solar systems don't always need %40 efficient panels to provide enough energy to power a house. Even with what's typically sold today, some people have solar energy based systems that are capable enough to allow them to sell power back to the grid.

    55. Re:Let me guess... by evilviper · · Score: 1

      Note that for some houses, heat pumps aren't capable of providing enough heat in cold weather conditions.

      This is patent nonsense.

      This is why some other alternative (traditionally fullfilled by resistive heaters) is still needed.

      Resistive heaters are used because they are CHEAPER. This allows the use of a smaller, cheaper heat pump.

      Where do you get 5:1 from?

      DoE

      The efficiency of heat pumps is dependent upon the heat available in the ambient environment as pumps must run for longer periods in order to maintain room temp in colder environments.

      In the absolute worse case, heat pumps are still just as efficient as resistive heating. And cold weather performance is highly dependent on the refrigerant and compression ratios used. Heat pumps can be designed for cold weather.

      Furthermore, this is all only an issue with air-source heat pumps. With a slightly higher installation cost, a ground-source (geothermal) installation can be performed, and provide an order of magnitude better performance.

      Both generation from some natural resource, and transport, incur losses which impact overall efficiency. Solar electricity and solar thermal are generated directly at the home.

      PV panels output low voltage DC, which need to stored and converted, incurring more loss than transport over the grid would, even in the best case. Not to mention that solar thermal-electric plants are much more efficient (read, cheaper), but impractical for the home.

      Home solar-thermal has even more significant storage problems.

      Resistive heaters waste a lot of electricity generating heat from electricity as compared to powering non resistive devices.

      This is completely IMPOSSIBLE in theory, and horribly inaccurate in practice. You obviously have no background in electrical engineering, physics, entropy, etc. etc. and I'm not about to try and educate you. I can only suggest you pick up a book on any of the above subjects.

      Not only does it require a large amount of current to generate heat,

      The amount of current required is directly proportional to the voltage, as well as the amount of heating required. Any heater is going to required "a large amount" of it's form of fuel. More than that, the amount of "current" required doesn't say anything at all about the efficiency of a device.

      but not all of the radiation produced in heater coils is in the low energy heat band.

      Before now, no-one has ever used the phrase "low energy heat band", as Google can testify. I have no doubt you think you know what you're talking about, but you simply do not.

      It is NOT theoretically possible for a resistive heater to be substantially less than 100% efficient, neither in electrical theory, or in pure physics (see: entropy). Any fully resistive device (such as an incandescent lightbulb) makes a 100% efficient heater. Additionally, with DC electricity, ANY and all devices make 100% efficient heaters... A car stereo, an electric motor, a fan, etc., all are 100% efficient heaters. It's not theoretically possible for them to be 100% efficient at their primary jobs, but as heaters, they are nearly perfect. Furthermore, this would be the case with AC devices as well, if not for inherent power factor (PF) issues... there, only fully resistive devices completely qualify.

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    56. Re:Let me guess... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Err, yes... "unless you use storage". Guess what... they use storage. Oil, pressurized water, salt, and high-purity graphite are all good options. And of course, since it's hooked up to the grid, remote storage options such as hydro are also available. Coal-fired power uses a form of carbon not too different from graphite for storage too ;-)

    57. Re:Let me guess... by Starcub · · Score: 1

      You obviously have no background in electrical engineering, physics, entropy, etc. etc. and I'm not about to try and educate you.
      Well that's probably the wisest thing you've said thus far, because I knew enough to recognize your BS after senior year high school physics, my BSEE not withstanding.
  4. Sheeit Negro, that's all you had to say! by gandhi_2 · · Score: 2, Interesting
    What's really awesome is that PV cells have undergone constant improvement in lab performance for 20 years, but since nothing ever gets put into production, the industry is held in a constant state of "early adoption" and we get screwed like perpetual "early adopters".

    Know what would rawk? A 5 year moritorium on new PV cell research so we could get some actual PV cell production going.

    1. Re:Sheeit Negro, that's all you had to say! by maxume · · Score: 1
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  5. Nanowires are nice and everything... by Hankapobe · · Score: 2, Informative

    but what is really needed is a photovoltaic that will release two electrons for every photon. If any of you material guys out there do that, you'll be a gazillionaire! That will really make photovoltaics productive enough to really complete with other alternative energy source - assuming fossils fuels don't go up much higher than they are now. Photovoltaics need to get down below $0.15 kwh on the roof (the heat from a typical roof reduces photovoltaic's efficiency by at least 10%).

    1. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by skintigh2 · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Barely related... but as a South Texas resident, I wonder how much less I could run my A/C every year just because of the shade provided by solar cells on my roof? I believe I first used my A/C this year in February, so even a small decrease could be significant over the year.

      I also always wondered why people don't advertise how much cooler CFL bulbs are than incandescent bulbs. I replaced 480W of lighting in a bathroom with 72W (replaced 60W clear bulbs with 9W vanity CFLs) and not only is it brighter and the light softer (and thus makes ladies feel prettier when doing whatever it is they do for hours in bathrooms) but it's a lot cooler. And they will pay for themselves in roughly 13 months.

      And similar swaps make a really significant difference when sitting under the 5-bulb light that is just above the dining table. A friend of mine used to unscrew some of the bulbs when she did homework.

      So basically now I save electricity while saving electricity.

    2. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by lgw · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Ahh, but that's because you live in Texas. Residents of lesser states are often concerned primarily with heating a room instead of cooling it. The difference is particularly huge in a batroom with a well-lit mirror, where 300W of heating in a small poorly-ventilated room could send the temperature over 100 in minutes - the CFLs are a glorious change, and available in whatever color temperature suits your fancy.

      Now we just need affordable dimmable CFLs for that dining table fixture, and low-wattage CFLs with the same wonderful very-warm color temperature that you get from dimming a 300W floor lamp down to 3W, which does as much as alcohol for making your partner look more attractive. ;)

      --
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    3. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by Facetious · · Score: 4, Funny

      I believe I first used my A/C this year in February
      You own an Anonymous Coward? That would be sweet. I would task mine to read and summarize /. for me.
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    4. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by NeutronCowboy · · Score: 2, Informative

      Now it's been a while since I dealt with Physics and all that, but... release 2 electrons for one photon? How would that work? Photons knock electrons out of their bonds by imparting enough energy into the electron so that it moves into the conduction band. However, photons are either absorbed or not - this is not billiards.

      --
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    5. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by brainnolo · · Score: 1

      A bit offtopic, but let me ask. In the US you really commonly use 300-400W bulbs? I've never seen anything more than 200W and 60-100W are most common in Italy. Either you rooms are very big, or your nights are very dark.

    6. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by slazzy · · Score: 1

      300 watt halogen floor lamps are somewhat common, otherwise most bulbs are 40-60-100 watts

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    7. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

      That's a total of multiple bulbs, I'm certain. Which isn't that uncommon around bathroom mirrors or living/dinning room tables. E.g. the ceiling fan at my house (rarely used) has 3 100W bulbs.

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
    8. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      No, they are talking about light fixtures that have several bulbs which when added together consume that many watts

    9. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by lgw · · Score: 2, Funny

      It was two different examples. 6 or even individual bulbs in a bathroom fixture are common (I've never been sure why, not needing to apply makeup). Also, 300W halogen floor lamps are common, and it's really hard to find a florescent replacement for those: nothing is bright enough, and when you turn down the dimmer on the 300W bulbs to where you can barely see them, you get the color temperature of firelight, which is very nice at times.

      Also, in Texas, your average living room is larger than Italy, but that's a different topic. :)

      --
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    10. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by pjt33 · · Score: 1

      I think that "floor lamp" means what I know as a standard lamp: a bulb on a 6 foot pole with a reflector which points up, so the light is diffused off the ceiling. A friend has one whose bulb gets pretty hot - I'm not sure what power it uses, but when a fly lands it on you smell burning fly.

    11. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Depends on the composition of the roofing material. If the roofing material is something like Dura-Last, a white PVC type material, attaching solar panels directly to or slightly above such material will be a thermal disadvantage to the house as a whole compared to a roof with black asphalt shingles.

    12. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by aliloln · · Score: 2, Informative

      No, they are talking about 300W halogen floor lamps (single halogen bulb fixtures). There are even 500w halogen bulbs. Google Halogen 300w and you'll find the bulbs.

      --
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    13. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      What you're looking for is a multiexciton creating material. There is a decent amount of research going into it right now. Generally, a high energy photon which is more than twice the bandgap creates a high energy exciton, and somehow (competing theories right now) the relaxation process generates low energy excitons.

    14. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by rcw-home · · Score: 1

      I wonder how much less I could run my A/C every year just because of the shade provided by solar cells on my roof?

      Your average silicon PV cell is 12% efficient. That means that for every watt of electricity out, 7 watts goes into heating up the cell, and very little gets reflected back out (since they are black).

      A white or light-shaded composition shingle roof would reflect about 30% of the light energy hitting it. While an asphalt shingle generates no electricity, it would absorb 20% less heat than the PV cell.

      Hopefully you have a little bit of an air gap between your PV cells and your roof.

    15. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by ErikZ · · Score: 1

      Bulbs. I have 6 light bulbs in my bathroom that I replaced like he did.

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    16. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      Skintigh2 is a 400k slashdotter.

      You'll have to wait until all the 500k and 600k get their apprentices before you get yours.

    17. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by Dr.+Cody · · Score: 1

      Do you remember the Gimp from Pulp Fiction?...

    18. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Huh? I have a 50 watt or so CFL torchier (floor lamp with the light pointed up at the ceiling) that replaced the 500 watt halogen job. Works like a champ. Not dimmable, but has 3 settings that is good enough for me. In the summer, the difference in heat output is amazing (not having AC, it doesn't cost me to cool, I just have to live with the heat).

      The electricity savings are nice, but have you seen the fireworks when one of the halogen bulbs die? That's worth the price of admission, right there.

      Google is my friend: http://www.oikos.com/green_products/category.php?category_id=802

    19. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by Ihlosi · · Score: 1
      I wonder how much less I could run my A/C every year just because of the shade provided by solar cells on my roof?



      Probably fairly little. You could get the same effect by putting something that's not solar panels (and therefore much cheaper) on your roof, or a larger effect by spending the money you'd spent on solar cells to improve the insulation of your house (provided that there's still potential to do so, i.e. the house isn't wrapped in 12 inches of insulation yet).


      You could also try to shade your windows (on the outside) during the periods of most sunshine. I've always wondered why window blinds are usually on the inside in the States - sure, it keeps the some of the light out of the room, but the heat is already in.



      I also always wondered why people don't advertise how much cooler CFL bulbs are than incandescent bulbs.



      I've always wondered why Americans aren't catching on that they're paying _twice_ for inefficient electrical devices in their homes - once for the extra electricity used by the device, and once for having all of that waste heat moved out of their house by the AC (ok, in the winter, it acts as extra heating, but usually heating by turning electricity into heat is one of the most expensive ways to heat your house compared to the alternatives).



      So basically now I save electricity while saving electricity.



      Exactly. Now go and tell your coworkers/buddies/family about it.

    20. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by antirelic · · Score: 1

      I've decided to put up a couple of large trees around my house to help with the heating/cooling issues, and it has worked like a charm.

      The trees provide a wind breaker for the winds during the winter (which tend to tear through my walls and 3x pane windows), and keep the sunlight off of my house in the summer. While I have to spend a little extra time cleaning out the gutters, I make up for it by not having to mow the lawn so often (which reduces my carbon footprint even more). My heating bills have gone down by 10% and my electric has gone down by close to 30% (it makes a huge difference in the summer with the sun not beating down on my roof 14 hours a day).

      --
      20th century Marxism is not progress...
    21. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by Chris+Burke · · Score: 1

      Who puts a halogen floor lamp in their bathroom?

      --

      The enemies of Democracy are
    22. Re:Nanowires are nice and everything... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If your bathroom is poorly-ventilated, you have bigger problems than heat from a light source.

  6. May I be the first to say by Fear+the+Clam · · Score: 1, Offtopic

    Lick my hairy solar cells.

    1. Re:May I be the first to say by corsec67 · · Score: 1

      That was my first thought as well,
      "Do they make a spherical version"?

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  7. Lab advancements != commercially viable by QuasiEvil · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The problem is that a large portion of the lab performance-enhancing techniques are so insanely expensive that they *can't* go into production. Many of them - particularly exotic materials or multi-junction cells - are prohibitively expensive to make, given the meager performance improvements. I think Nanosolar has the right idea for now - craptastic cells made cheap. Who cares if they're large if they're incredibly inexpensive?

    1. Re:Lab advancements != commercially viable by dunezone · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yeah but this is like any technology. A few days ago there was an article on why touch table tops are just now coming around. Thats because 30-40 years ago when they were developed they were developed in labs and were extremely expensive. Now with the advancement in technology that produced them its feasible for this technology to be manufactured/developed/sold.

      Give this technology another 20-30 years, maybe even less, and the advancement of production will drop the price.

    2. Re:Lab advancements != commercially viable by iminplaya · · Score: 1

      Let's not forget the issue of patent liability. We may have to wait until some of them expire before manufacture and distribution will become affordable.

      --
      What?
    3. Re:Lab advancements != commercially viable by v(*_*)vvvv · · Score: 1

      And by golly, nuclear reactors are so cheap!

    4. Re:Lab advancements != commercially viable by linuxpyro · · Score: 1

      Well, as you start to scale the system up, less efficient cells means that you need more of them to get a particular output power. On a large system more cells means more panels (or bigger ones), which means more infrastructure to support them. This includes mounting racks, and just available space.

      Now, this isn't really an issue for most residential applications, where having less $/watt is probably more important. But, for a larger commercial system the extra costs can add up.

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    5. Re:Lab advancements != commercially viable by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      PV solar is a spin-off of space technology.

      Putting PV Solar on your roof is as silly as putting a Thermal Solar power plant on a spacecraft. Who cares about size and efficiency... do you know how big Nevada is, compared to Voyager II?

      I read that Ausra now has a factory pumping out Thermal Solar componentry at a rate of 70MW of componentry per month. 100 such factories could supply componentry to replace the entire US power generation infrastructure in 5-10 years.

  8. Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by BlueParrot · · Score: 4, Informative

    If I am not completely mistaken "classical" semi conductor cells can reach efficiencies of 40%, meaning that even with perfect 100% efficiency you would get at best a factor 2.5 improvement. Of course, 100% efficiency is an impossibility and thus I think we can safely assume that these cells will never reach more than 80%-90% efficiency, which would be an improvement of a factor of 2 over current technology. Now last estimate I saw was that in Europe solar cells work out to be about 4 times as expensive as wind power (which is itself rather pricey ), so even assuming the 100% efficiency, efficiency gains alone cannot make solar economical.

    Add in to this that a large part of the cost of solar is the energy needed to produce the cells, which means that if you get that energy from a more expensive power source, the price of the cells will increase. I.e, if one started to replace relatively cheap generation capacity with more expensive solar cells, then the cost of energy, and hence the cost of the cells, would increase.

    It would therefore appear to me that for solar to have a chance to become competitive what is needed is focus on lowering the cost of producing the cells, because the gains from improving their efficiency cannot offset their presently large price, and it appears unlikely that pushing for higher and higher efficiencies will be possible without making the cells more expensive.

    1. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 4, Informative

      Currently availible non-specialty cells (the cells used for space etc are not used for general power) are typically between 5 and 15%.

      Therefore getting to the 80-90% range would result in a 5-18X improvment.

      Since solar is currently 4X, that means it will drop to .2-.8X of CURRENT power costs.

      Now remember that hydro is essentially 100% tapped. Wind has a much more limited range and is already approaching the likley maximum efficiency. Nuclear is great but will take some time to spin up. Oil/natural gas prices are climbing rapidly and coal is becoming more expensive to mine and or clean.

      Solar PV provides a great load matching power source that will help reduce an individuals demand on the system even if it doesn't complely remove the need for other power sources as well.

    2. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by timmarhy · · Score: 1, Interesting

      solar could maybe provide 10% of our needs at most. it can't supply base load, which is something nuclear can do very well. don't tell the tree huggers that though, they want to continue to live in their dream world.

      --
      If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
    3. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      personally I would love to see throium reactors until fusion actually shows up.

      While I am not a "tree-hugger" I am a "tree-shacker-hander"

    4. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

      Photovoltaics can't supply base load now, but that doesn't that you can't get a solar plant to supply base load. The trick is to instead, use thermal energy. We can store the excess thermal energy overnight to continue generating power in the dark, until the sun shines again. Check it out http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_thermal_energy

    5. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by BlueParrot · · Score: 3, Informative

      Currently availible non-specialty cells (the cells used for space etc are not used for general power) are typically between 5 and 15%.

      Therefore getting to the 80-90% range would result in a 5-18X improvment.

      Since solar is currently 4X, that means it will drop to .2-.8X of CURRENT power costs..


      I said 4X WIND POWER costs. Not current power costs. Britain's Royal Academy of Engineering estimates the cost of wind power at roughly 3 times that of nuclear, so even if you achieve 90% efficiency that would put you at roughly twice the cost of nuclear generation ( assuming 15% efficiency for present cells ). Now, to give an idea of how hard 90% efficiency would be to reach, the Sun's average surface temperature is 5778K , meaning a solar cell at 300K could at best reach 95% efficiency without violating the laws of thermodynamics.

      That is, ignoring ANY other problems you are closing in on the theoretical limits allowed by the laws of physics if you are to get such efficiencies, and you have to do this without increasing the costs of your cells. Any dust on the cells and you can forget it. Protective glass coating is a no-no since it would absorb in the UV range. Heck, simply finding a material that is reasonably transparent at all the relevant wavelengths could be tricky. Add in to this that you cannot use any expensive/toxic/rare elements, that the cells should have to last for a long time, that they should survive a wide range of temperatures and be able to handle a reasonable level of abuse, and it becomes far from certain that it is even possible to reach 80% efficiency, let alone to do so in the foreseeable future.

    6. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by argent · · Score: 1

      Even given your calculations (and I don't think I'm really happy with all the assumptions) solar power is often usable where wind power isn't, and vice versa, so it's not an "either or" situation.

    7. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by aztektum · · Score: 1

      If you're talking strictly about the monetary economics, then I think what we really need to do is rethink the world's concept of economics.

      At SOME point the bullet has to bitten as far as cost goes somewhere. Oil and coal aren't going to stick around for ever.

      --
      :: aztek ::
      No sig for you!!
    8. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by kesuki · · Score: 1

      hydro isn't 100% tapped, there are tons of places around the world where new hydro electric plants are going up, maybe in America the market was saturated early, but if we put in hydro plants in many countries in Africa, those countries won't have to put in as many coal fired plants at technology gets cheaper, etc.

      wind is nowhere near tapped.... i think the Department of energy once found in a study that wind power plants could provide up to 40% of the energy needs of the US, overall, the problem though, is that the states where wind power is really viable, are far away from the major population centers, putting up massive wind farms to power all of north Dakota would be easy, but north Dakota would never ever have the money to install that many wind farms...

      there are countless places where wind power is so predictable and reliable that those regions could get almost all their power from wind, but the very high upfront cost, compared to the 'artificially low' price of coal, makes it unlikely for those regions to go wind.

      Wind turbines can pay for themselves, easily, but there are things (tornadoes, etc) that make them a 'risky' bet, if your wind farm stands for 20 years you've paid off expenses, but if a F5 tears them down in year 3 you're hosed...

      remember, windy places are usually in tornado country, so tornadoes are the 'fear, uncertainty, doubt' factor that keeps energy companies (thinking only of the bottom line) from turning to wind power...

      Solar PVs are never going to be cheap as long as they require pure silicon, even if this technology helps significantly (if it ramps up, if it can be cheaply mass produced, big ifs, there) PV will still be an 'expensive' power source, home owners buy PV because they 'pay less than buying from the grid' but that price supports a lot more than the 'cost' of producing the energy, so if this tech works, in a few years the demand for cheap, home installed PV will grow way beyond production capacities, but it still will be way more expensive than coal, it will only save homeowners from paying 'full retail' cost for energy... they won't use this new solar PV technology to power cities, it's still too expensive...

    9. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      The primary benifit to solar thermal is that it is a mature technology and is about 40 percent efficiency plus we are decent at storing heat energy without loss.

      The downside is that we are unlikley to improve much because of Karnat restrictions.

      PV has a Karnat limit of about 98 percent. Therefore while at the moment thermal is better for large power plants, PV will eventually pass thermal. We are already pretty close efficiency wise to storing electricity cost effectivly.

      Thermal is great for now.

    10. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      You are correct..You did say Wind power.

      But the cost of power is based on more than cell efficiency.

      For instance, nanocell solar cells are proven and produce power at 0.15 cents a KWH. this is done at about 7 percent efficiency. Coal power typically costs about 0.10 cents a KWH. This is possible because the cells are so cheap and can be placed in "useless" areas like residential siding and roofs. This tech is expected to reach rf percent efficiency at the current price point in 5-10 years.

      There is enough unused space on roofs etc to provide several times our power usage right now AND do it at about a third the price of coal plants.

      Remember, caol plants are already close to thermodynamic top efficiency at 40 percent efficient.

      In a few decades you may be able to buy a gallon of PV paint that will cover a wall with 50 percent efficient cells at $20 a gallon (I am exaggerating on the price since I don't know and it really doesn't matter).

      Remember we have an avearge of 4 KWH falling on every dquare meter every day. Even 50 percent efficiency on the wasted space would provide all our energy needs for the predictable future.

    11. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Tweenk · · Score: 1

      When your sky looks like this for several weeks (not that uncommon in Europe), you have a problem.

      --
      Those who would give up liberty to obtain working drivers, deserve neither liberty nor working drivers.
    12. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      Yet Germany, which is one of the worst for solar, still generates a huge amount of it's power from currrent solar tech and the percentage is growing.

      Germany produces more power from solar than the whole US.

    13. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by c6gunner · · Score: 4, Interesting

      solar could maybe provide 10% of our needs at most. it can't supply base load, which is something nuclear can do very well. don't tell the tree huggers that though, they want to continue to live in their dream world.


      Just to be contrary: at least in theory, solar COULD supply base-load. All you need to do is integrate the Earth's power grids. Then you'd have a more or less constant amount of current available throughout the grid.

      Of course, this isn't practical - even ignoring the political implications, transmission losses would create serious problems. Getting away from AC current and using DC for all grid transmission could fix part of that problem, but that's not likely to happen any time soon.

      And yes, you're certainly right about nuclear. Realistically, it's our best option at this point in time. That's one thing that France got right.
    14. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Actually that is exactly backwards. A majority of the cost of installing a photovoltaic (PV) system is independent of the type of PV, as I recently saw in an NREL presentation. Think of things like labor, transportation, maintenance, etc. It's such that the only way we're going to reduce the cost of the cells significantly is by making them more efficient, so that we don't need as many installed!

      Thus, the best way to improve cost is by finding more efficient PV cells. It's initially counterintuitive, but data supports that conclusion.

    15. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      While increasing the efficiency of a solar cell can indeed make it cheaper, in that if the increase in efficiency doesn't significantly increase the cost of a cell, making it so you need half as many, half as much mounting equipment, etc... It doesn't really matter.

      I agree with you, the significant obstacle isn't the efficiency of solar panels. It's the cost of them, more so than the space they take up.

      If we could produce solar panels that were half as efficient as current panels for the cost of a ream of paper(for the area), that were still able to have the lifespan, it'd be a no brainer in many cases. If we were able to make panels, even minimally efficient, that were about the same cost and durability as shingles, it'd be easy.

      But that's not the case.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    16. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      Since solar is currently 4X, that means it will drop to .2-.8X of CURRENT power costs.

      Do you happen to have a source on this? All the times I've figured it, it's around 10X as much.

      4X might be with some of the high levels of subsidies and such. Or a large solar thermal installation, which photovoltiacs don't figure into.

      Or maybe it's compared to retail electrical prices, and doesn't include support equipment such as the inverter.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    17. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      'Huge' is now defined as 3% now?

      They may be the world leader, but I'd argue that it's not helping them as much as nuclear power is helping France, which, on average is a electricity exporter.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    18. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      Coal power doesn't cost 10 cents a kwh. It's more like 4-6 cents, before distribution grid costs. Unless you go off the grid, you're still going to have that, as the power lines need to be maintained.

      Of course, clean coal is much more expensive, quite possibly making it more expensive than building nuclear plants. The level of cleaning/scrubbing making coal clean is expensive.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    19. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Just to be contrary: at least in theory, solar COULD supply base-load. All we need are solar power satellites.

      Oh right, NASA's in charge of the space program. Scratch that.

      What, me bitter?
    20. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      I was quoting the parent of my comment.

      However with nanosolar's thin film cells the price can drop to about 1.5X coal (although space could become an issue).

      Currently the payback period for a full off-grid residential solar system is on the order of 7-10 years. (Cited all over the place) This is in line with the roughly 4X for conventional silicon cells.

    21. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      And growing 20% annually with some companies hitting 50%http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/05/04/AR2007050402466.html

    22. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      Argue with my electric bill.... I pay 10.5 cents per KWH and I am slightly better than my state (Georgia).

      Coal prices vary but the average has NEVER been below 7 cents a KWH (adjusted to today's dollar) before distribution costs. Those that are that low are typically from non-profit co-op type organizations.

      For profit power companies charge anywhere from 8 cents up to 15 depending on market forces (again average).

      Finally even is you WERE right and it did cost 4-6 cents before distribution costs, we are talking about power at the wall and pricing for residential off-grid solar. the 4-6 cents then gets line maintenances and transmission losses which together can be substantial.

      In the end, financially Solar is still not a viable option for MOST people. However if you live in a sunny are where central power is relatively high solar is ALREADY a financially viable option. As the technology improves, and it is improving quickly, solar becomes cost effective for more people. Right now I am about even financially purchasing power vs generating power with solar. In 2-3 years it probably won't be a contest and I will gradually move off grid. (Probably solar water heater on year then grid tie solar the next and finally fully off grid).

      As efficiency goes up and price goes down more people will move towards solar and away from centrally generated power.

    23. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Belial6 · · Score: 1

      10.5 cents per KWH? Man, I wish I could get power that cheap. My last bill had me paying 23 cents KWH for a good portion of the bill.

    24. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by rcw-home · · Score: 1

      PV has a Karnat limit of about 98 percent.

      Maybe you mean Carnot? More importantly, if you have a source for this assertion, I'd be very interested in reading it.

    25. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      Sorry about that...I sent the message on a palm pilot with not checking :-)

      take a look here http://www.ese.iitb.ac.in/aer2006_files/papers/086.pdf

      While local temperatures don't effct the PV Carnot efficiency, the surface temperature of the sun does.

      The sun is about 6000K. Locally we are 300K calculate it out and you get a maximum efficiency of about 95% (my mistake...off by 3)

      However 80% is a much more realistic end point for consumer grade equipment. Even 50% would bring the cost down to less than ANYTHING out there and provide power for all residential uses plus power a couple of nice electric cars rather well.

    26. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Chris+Mattern · · Score: 2, Funny

      Yeah, but who's gonna build the catchium reactors?

    27. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by espiesp · · Score: 0

      Explain how converting to DC would improve long distance transmission efficiency?

    28. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by modecx · · Score: 1

      Says right in your PDF that when considering radiative heat losses & entropy (they didn't take thermal conduction into account, I noticed), the black body limit on efficiency is about 86%. Personally, I'd think that mass production of 20-30% efficient cells would be a hell of a revolution. Limited production of 50% efficient cells would be a mind blowing breakthrough... Any more than that is just icing on the cake.

      --
      Constitutional rights may be respected, repealed, or modified; but they must never be ignored.
    29. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Dr.+Cody · · Score: 1

      Of course, this isn't practical - even ignoring the political implications, transmission losses would create serious problems. Getting away from AC current and using DC for all grid transmission could fix part of that problem, but that's not likely to happen any time soon.
      Westinghouse isn't dead, he's just posting nonsense on Slashdot!
    30. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Ihlosi · · Score: 1
      Explain how converting to DC would improve long distance transmission efficiency?

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electrical_impedance

      Look at the impedance for an inductor (which any power line is). It's i * omega * L. L rises with the length of the line. Omega is 2 * pi * f. f for DC is zero (duh!), for AC it's, generally speaking, some positive number. Higher impedance means transmission losses in addition to the purely resistive loss (which does not depend on the frequency).

    31. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by locofungus · · Score: 2, Informative

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/HVDC#Advantages_of_HVDC_over_AC_transmission

      There are, of course, disadvantages as well. In particular, HVDC doesn't really work well for a grid, only for point to point links. So if you want to move power from one AC grid to another then HVDC makes sense (8GW link under the English Channel for example - note that England and France use the same frequency but different phase - and the angle (presumably) isn't constant - so you'd probably have to use a DC link although that could be just a few metres but once you've got both DC and AC it's cheaper to move power using DC than AC)

      Tim.

      --
      God said, "div D = rho, div B = 0, curl E = -@B/@t, curl H = J + @D/@t," and there was light.
    32. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Ex-MislTech · · Score: 1

      so even assuming the 100% efficiency, efficiency gains alone cannot make solar economical.

      Add the long term cost of the Iraq war, and the future
      war in Iran onto the cost of your petro power.

      It is not so cheap anymore.

      If the long term projected trillions of dollars went to a
      Solar Thermal array like the SEGS system we could
      power the earth with 10% of the Sahara Desert
      3 times over replacing all forms of power including
      oil, coal, nuclear, wind, hydro.

      In 2005 total world energy usage was 15 Tera Watts,
      the 10% section of the Sahara converted to 40% efficient
      solar thermal would be 50 Terawatts.

      It woule take up 350,000 sq miles though, and would be
      a monster to manage, realistically spread the systems
      through the deserts of the world so that the sun never
      goes down on the grid at some place in the world.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEGS

      --
      google "32 trillion offshore needs IRS attention"
    33. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Ex-MislTech · · Score: 1

      solar could maybe provide 10% of our needs at most.

      Yeah, not much solar power hits the earth:

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy#Energy_from_the_Sun

      2.5 acres makes 354 Mega Watts

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEGS

      I swear your daddy must work for big oil, or you are just
      as smart as a bag of hammers.

      --
      google "32 trillion offshore needs IRS attention"
    34. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Ex-MislTech · · Score: 1

      Also besides storing the power, the sun is up somewhere in the
      world and can make power, so spread the power generation
      across all 24 time zones and use long haul transmission.

      The long haul losses for the US are about 7.2%

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_transmission#Losses

      So all those Anti-solar idiots out there can stop fondling
      their fossil fuel shares, and face the fact that 3% of
      the Sahara at 40% efficiency could replace all other forms
      of power on earth alone.

      Spread it across all 24 time zones and the sun never sets
      on all the solar plants at once.

      All this half bakery about how there is no power from the
      sun makes me laugh hysterically as 120,000 Terawatts is
      available and all power used on earth of all forms
      was 15 Terawatts in 2005.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_energy_resources_and_consumption#Solar_power

      Solar Thermal is effective now, and wind is intermittent.

      At anytime, everyday, the sun is up somewhere, and if the
      sun stops coming up you got bigger problems to worry about.

      --
      google "32 trillion offshore needs IRS attention"
    35. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Ex-MislTech · · Score: 1

      Yeah in cloudy parts of Europe the non barage tidal generators
      might be the trick as the clouds don't effect the tides.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tidal_power

      You could also put solar power plants in different areas of
      the EU and use long haul transmission to carry it to
      areas covered by clouds.

      Long distance losses are around 7.2% in the US.

      --
      google "32 trillion offshore needs IRS attention"
    36. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by squoozer · · Score: 1

      Man I wish I could get power that cheap. My last bill (converting @ $2 = £1) would put it at 28 cents / KWH! Dropping to 25 cents after using several hundred KWH.

      --
      I used to have a better sig but it broke.
    37. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Ex-MislTech · · Score: 1

      Pretty lucky here as well, 7.68 cents a KWh and it is
      natural gas here in Oklahoma.

      --
      google "32 trillion offshore needs IRS attention"
    38. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Ex-MislTech · · Score: 1

      High power tornadoes are extremely rare.

      I live in the center of tornado alley, and my house
      is 55 years old, and my friend's house is 70+ years old.

      Neither of these houses have been hit by a F0-F5.

      Some day that will happen, but I may not be alive to see it.

      There are lots of homes around me that are over 50 years
      old and none of them have been hit.

      A few areas in central Oklahoma seems to be a tornado magnet
      Moore and Edmond, some areas almost never get hit,like Norman.

      I have no idea why, just a observation of the last 20 yrs.

      Oklahoma is building windmills like mad, and I think it is great.

      Texas, Iowa, and the Dakotas as well.

      The big multi-megawatt turbines are cost effective as long
      as the weather doesn't destroy too many of them.

      --
      google "32 trillion offshore needs IRS attention"
    39. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      With the assistance of some rather massive subsidies, to include a requirement for the power companies to buy the power at $.42 a kwh, which is HUGE.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    40. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Starcub · · Score: 1

      Even at $110/barrel people don't realize just how good America has it on the cost of oil. Americans buy gas at roughly 2-3 times less on average than other nations -- primarily because of our political/economic power base, fossil technology is pretty much state of the art. Additionally we have to consider that the increasing availability shortage will impact the price of dirty energy particularly as developing economies ramp up. The accompanying shift in the powerbase to countries like China and India will make alternative energy sources that are easily available/renewable, like solar, wind, hydro, and geothermal all that much more attractive in the near future.

      Consequently we need to shift away from subsidizing the production of crude and start subsidizing the production of these alternatives. The technology to do this is at hand, the will however, seems to be lacking.

    41. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Ihlosi · · Score: 1
      Even at $110/barrel people don't realize just how good America has it on the cost of oil. Americans buy gas at roughly 2-3 times less on average than other nations -- primarily because ...

      the government (neither state nor federal) does not dare to tax gasoline heavily.

      There, fixed that for you.

      (And don't start whining about those few cents per gallon. With "heavy", I mean that more than 50% of what you pay at the pump is actually taxes.)

    42. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Starcub · · Score: 1

      the government (neither state nor federal) does not dare to tax gasoline heavily.
      Why would they do that while at the same time subsidizing the industry? The US is after all, still a primarily crude based economy. I'm arguing for shift away from this, which means I would be in favor of eliminating subsidies and increasing taxes on oil.

      There, fixed that for you.
      It appears to me that you haven't fixed anything, unless you want to argue that the worlds largest empire/police state has little clout in obtaining good deals on internation oil agreements -- good luck with that.
    43. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      Actually, it says the THEORETICAL limit (which is what Carnot was talking about) is 95%.

      The practical limits is PROBABLY around 86% given the current materials.

      We already have cells that are 45% efficient however they are exceptionally expensive and are only used for satellite power etc. These super efficiency cells are some of the few cells that still consume more power to make than they are expected to produce (part of this is the harsh radiation/meteor environment of space).

      The techniques used in these cells (multi-gap, ultra purity, frequency isolation etc) are getting cheaper and are starting to make there way into the consumer grade equipment.

      It is not unreasonable to expect a 50% efficiency in consumer cells in the next 10-15 years. In addition the price for cells across the whole solar cell spectrum will drop, as will power storage and potentially even inverter/controller costs. As the price drops and efficiency increases the range of applications solar is appropriate for will grow. Eventually I would not be surprised if solar cells became standard on new residential construction over the next few decades.

    44. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Ihlosi · · Score: 1
      It appears to me that you haven't fixed anything, unless you want to argue that the worlds largest empire/police state has little clout in obtaining good deals on internation oil agreements -- good luck with that.

      Then why is the wholesale price for gasoline (i.e. before tax) in Europe pretty much the same (or even cheaper) than in the States ?

      Yes, at the pump we pay almost $9/gal over here, but still over 50% of that is taxes. The price for the actual gasoline is the same as in the States. Your gas is "cheap" at the pump because the government doesn't tax it. And I don't see how any amount of political or military "clout" will help you with the prices at one of the oil/distillate exchanges (e.g. in Rotterdam) of the world - the only thing that'll count there is all the "clout" in your wallet.

    45. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      Very true, and those subsidies are dropping fast yet the rate of solar production is increasing dramatically.

      It is also worthy to note that traditional power sources are also heavily subsidized both directly and indirectly. The coal industry in Germany is almost dead production wise but is maintained almost entierly on government subsidies and legal protections.

    46. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

      Using Carnot cycle calculations for a non-thermal process is invalid. Gear trains have efficiencies well over 90% even when all gears are at the same temperature.

      --
      Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
    47. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by kesuki · · Score: 1

      the problem is that the number of wind turbines that would have to go in, and the way they'd be spaced.

      normally tornadoes hit out in the middle of fields, maybe an unlucky farmhouse gets hit... well, guess what, almost all of those wind turbines are going to be scattered along fields, close enough to residential areas to make them pay off...

      there are hundreds of tornadoes each season, in each state along tornado alley, just because houses aren't scattered around in a pattern likely to take losses from tornadoes, wind farms by their very nature would be, if we drew 40% of our energy from wind, every year there would be turbines lost (or at least damaged enough to require repairs) and again, i said this was part of the FUD thrown against wind farms, FUD doesn't have to say you will always loose money taking a chance, it just has to create enough uncertainty to keep investors away.

      lack of enough wind to drive the turbines is another part of that FUD, but with how high megawatt capacity wind turbines are, they're far less susceptible to slow wind days, and properly sited the owners of the wind mills will already have a ball park figure of how much idle time the turbines really will have anyways.

    48. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      Do you have a link on the dropping subsidies?

      I can't speak of all of Germany, of course, but at least in the USA coal is among the least subsidized power sources going. I found the article here. Traditional coal is second only to natural gas among receiving the least amount of subsidy.

      Nuclear power, per kwh, only receives 5% of the subsidy compared to 'clean' coal, wind, and solar.

      I have no engineering problem with wind or solar other than the fact that it's too expensive. It's also currently not good for base load power, but we can work around that.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    49. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      I was talking about Germany. Our coal reserves are still fairly well stocked. I don't have the link on me but I think I read about the dropping solar subsidies on CNN.

      Direct subsidies are fairly low for coal in the US but if you look at the whole extraction, production and distribution system the subsidies add up. Remember there are two types of subsidies...direct financial and legal considerations/protections which also has a financial calculation

      The coal mines are subsidized through legal protections and bail outs. Several of these were mentioned in the news recently (last year).

      The power plants themselves are protected from the regional environmental damage that directly hurts those around them (for instance acid rain and radiation exposure). Coal power plants also typically get preferential treatment from the government for loans not to mention local communities often bend over backwards to attract them.

      Distribution power lines have a right of way over most property. A power company can put up power lines on your property and you can't refuse and you aren't compensated.

      Solar cell production does not have a similar level of protections. The mining necessary doesn't have any special protections like coal mining does. Purification of the materials does not necessarily produce pollution and certainly doesn't release radiation. Even if the facility does produce pollution it is subject to EPA laws that coal plants are partially shielded from. Finally, after instillation solar produces no emissions at all and the current battery tech is non-toxic and completely recyclable. There are no ongoing subsidies

      Solar has a one time upfront subsidy of $2000 on a $35,000 system. Coal requires ongoing subsidies in the form of legal protections or they will be sued out of existence almost immediately.

    50. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Starcub · · Score: 1

      Then why is the wholesale price for gasoline (i.e. before tax) in Europe pretty much the same (or even cheaper) than in the States ?
      It's not. We currently pay about $3.50/gal in the US which is the highest it's ever been. When consumers started writing congress to complain, congress held a dog and pony show that made the British parliment look like 2nd rate second rate actors. The government blamed the the industry for artificially hiking prices, and the industry blamed its government pals for increasing the taxes. Even if it were true that our government didn't tax oil, by your figures, we would still end up paying about %20 less than Europe does.

      And I don't see how any amount of political or military "clout" will help you with the prices at one of the oil/distillate exchanges (e.g. in Rotterdam) of the world - the only thing that'll count there is all the "clout" in your wallet.
      Irrelevent. In the contemporary global economy crude prices are determined where military power translates most readily into money, long before it reaches any distillery, or even comes out of the ground.
    51. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Ihlosi · · Score: 1
      It's not.

      Yes it is. Let me demonstrate below.

      We currently pay about $3.50/gal in the US which is the highest it's ever been.

      An we pay about 1.50€/l at the pump here. At an exchange rate of $1.55/€ and 3.78l/gal, this comes out to roughly $8.79/gal - and still, the gasoline itself costs the same, because the 1.50€ can be divided into:

      0.501€ Mineral oil tax
      0.24€ Value-added tax
      0.154€ Eco-tax (yup)
      0.51€ Wholesale price
      0.095€ Profit

      Wholesale price + profit is 0.605€/l, which comes out to about $3.54/gal (and this is for premium gasoline, which most cars around here use). If the exchange rate wasn't as completely out of whack as it is right now, that last number would be significantly lower (for most stuff, a realistic exchange rate would be about $1.10/€, with the current rate, pretty much everything in the States is a real bargain right now for anyone from the other side of the pond).

    52. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      The power plants themselves are protected from the regional environmental damage that directly hurts those around them (for instance acid rain and radiation exposure).

      At least in the USA, enviromental requirements for new coal plants are quite stringent(good!), but the older plants are generally grandfathered, which is a pain. I consider myself a moderate enviromentalist. I fully believe that we can do better, but we need to be smart about it. As a result, I generally oppose grandfathering in favor of reasonable new requirements that encourage the replacing of old higher polluting plants with newer cleaner ones.

      Coal power plants also typically get preferential treatment from the government for loans not to mention local communities often bend over backwards to attract them.

      Happens in the USA as well, though communities more often have NIMBY attitudes that make placements difficult. See texas and some of the new plants they've been trying to build. They morphed from 'clean coal' to nuclear when Bush extended 'green' power loan guarentees to nuclear, and the proposing company figured out that clean coal plants would be more expensive to build than equivalent capacity nuclear plants.

      Distribution power lines have a right of way over most property. A power company can put up power lines on your property and you can't refuse and you aren't compensated.

      I'd argue that this is independant of coal power - you still need distribution lines for hydro, wind, nuclear, and central plant type solar systems.

      There are no ongoing subsidies

      Sure there is, to the tune of 42 cents a kwh. Over four times the going rate for utility power.

      Coal requires ongoing subsidies in the form of legal protections or they will be sued out of existence almost immediately.

      I'll agree with this, Coal is dirty, dirty power and I'd prefer to see it cleaned up or replaced. I just think that there are better options currently than massive installations of solar.

      For example, here in the USA I'd look into pushing solar thermal water heating for those below the mason-dixon line. Well, I'd start south of there and work my way up. Many people here in the USA have electric water heaters. They're 4400 to 5500 watts typically. In my area it'd be 44 cents an hour to operate. That's a LOT of juice, and you can virtually turn them off for ~$2k per house. Using This calcuator, the 'average' electric water heater can be expected to cost $508 a year. Given that a solar heating system would require a little more maintenance, and that most models have a pump, call it a five year payback.

      To me, that's an easy sell. Much like CFLs, additional insulation, other energy saving smart home construction techniques, etc...

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    53. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      I think generally we agree. I don't beleive solar is the end all and be all either.

      Personally I think solar should be installed on "wasted" space like residential rooves, parking decks etc (Especially since this will help reduce AC usage by absorbing some light heating your roof). Since solar tends to follow usage trends, this provides an excellent peak load production and will likley prevent most brownouts. In addition it allows for better efficiency of power plants since fewer plants can be run at full power and used to supply base-load rather than have extra capacity to spin up/spin down for peak. There is also another plus. Having distributed power generation (even if it is just during the day) will help prevent catastopic loss incase of an accident at one of the plants.

      As far as coal goes, it is by far the best fossil fuel for power generation. It is relativly clean (or can be cleaned easily), it is abundant and it is easy to store. However it is not a long term source. Reagan stated that we had 250 years of reserves. We now have 120-133 years of reserves. At the same time, the carbon emissions are a real problem. Even with CO2 sequestering we are still pulling O2 out of the atmosphere.

      A real solution is nuclear (beleive it or not Uranium can be considered a renewable resource from ocean water and the nasty nuclear waste can be destroyed with neutron bombardment pretty quickly). Uranium with breeder reactors and fuel re-processing, thorium reactors, an assortment of other alternative power sources (wind, hydro, solar, tidal etc) together can easily replace all fossil fuels. Battery tech is actually getting close to good enough to replace most automotive fuel usage. Since many people use more than 50% of the power just moving around, going to electric vehicles will provide one of the biggest savings we could imagine.

      In the end, conservation is very smart (solar water heaters are some of the best examples) but production is the real issue.

    54. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      btw, the .42 cents is only in Germany. I was talking about US subsidies. Every contry is different.

    55. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      Personally I think solar should be installed on "wasted" space like residential rooves, parking decks etc

      Only problem with this is that photovoltiac power, right now, is too expensive when you consider all the costs for a residential system to ever pay back economically. Thus why I suggest a solar heating system, which is often up in the 90% efficient range.

      And yes, I'm a big fan of nuclear power for those reasons.

      Conservation is good, production is good, and you find a balance. When production costs increase, the measures you take for conservation make more sense. Sure, you can construct a home that doesn't need to be connected to any grid, electricity, gas, or even water as it provides all the 'necessities' of life. The problem? A $100k house costs $750k to build that way. Municipal water, sewer, gas, and electricity make more sense, as most people don't spend $35k/year* in utilities.

      *5% 'cost of capital'. IE unless it saves you more than $35k/year it's never going to break even, even if the system lasts 'forever' without need for mainenance, replacement, or repair. You'd be better off putting the money into investments that earn 5% a year and use the proceeds to pay your bills.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    56. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      Can you please site your source for the $ value?

      For instance, a solar system (PV and solar thermal water heater) to completely off-grid replace my power usage would cost about 35,000 and cost a few hundred a year in upkeep (replacing batteries etc.)

      I have a septic system and it cost about 3000.

      I looked up water wells and it would cost about 10,000 for a 500 foot well plus pump and well-tank.

      Therefore to completely disconnect my electric house from external services (except for communication like internet, cable etc) it would cost me about $50,000 (35K electric, 10K water and 5K for septic and miscellaneous). Now if I wanted to power an electric car (when I buy one) it would cost an additional 10-15K in PV.

      So for 60,000 and about 500 a year in upkeep, I can avoid a monthly bill of $50 for water + sewer, 100 for electric and 750 (yeah I know) in gas, $900. At a cost of capital of 5% (which I think is a little low) I would completely pay off the whole thing in 78.26 months or 6.5 years. A person who drives a normal distance would pay it off in 10-15 years assuming the price of power and gas stays exactly the same (even with inflation AND resource shortages).

      Therefore, building "off-grid" will add about 50% of a very cheap 100K house. A 200K house would cost a little bit more but not double. As I mentioned in a prior message (under a different thread) I plan to move toward off-grid living in about 3 years. I will start with a 5K solar thermal water heater. Than a on-grid solar power system. Then an off-grid system. Somewhere along the line I will purchase a pure electric or (more likely) a plug in hybrid. I will probably keep city water because it is cheap and very reliable. At that point I will be completely off grid/off gas. I anticipate spending about 45k (plus a car when I need one). I will save my investment in under 4 years.

      Plus it looks like the price of PV and batteries will be significantly less in 4 years when I buy them.

    57. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      The only source I have was a TV show I saw while visiting family a couple months ago.

      The house didn't have a conventional septic system or well, it was located in a desert type area and subsisted on recycling and rain cisterns to capture the occasional rain. It also had a garden on the roof, etc...

      The septic system was designed to produce fertilizer. I know off-grid stuff, if allowed, can be done cheaper.

      WTF are you doing spending that much on gas for? Do you drive 5k miles a month? If so, you're wildely optimistic that another $10-15k would replace $900/month worth of fuel.

      Go back to the $50k amount, and don't get rid of the gas*, and you'll see that the utilities that you're replacing don't come close to paying off the system. Yes, the 5% is a bit low, but that's because I was placing some value on not being dependent on foreign systems. If the systems were a bit riskier, I wouldn't consider 10% out of line.

      *I'm assuming you're talking about gasoline and not natural gas or something used for heating your house.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    58. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      My wife and I commute a total of 220 miles every work day (in opposite directions of course)!

      After my last message I ran the numbers again. I would need a 10Kw system to provide 100% of my electricity uses including replacing the mileage currently fueled with gas at a conversion of 0.25 KWH/mile (what most electric sedans get). Assuming roof space is not a limit (actually a reasonable assumption) I could purchase that system for $50,000. If space really isn't a limit I could do it for 25,000 in two years (with nanosolar's solar cells which are availible now but won't be common until then). This is of course assuming no advancement in the state of the art which as this article shows is NOT a reasonable assumption.

      Therefore, at 5% it would take about 6.5 years. When I was looking around I noticed that most NJ systems are break even in 7 years and NY systems are break even in 10. NJ and NY are not exactly the best locations for solar but even there these systems have a substantial return on investment.

    59. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      Are you remembering the battery packs and extra capacity due to losses because you'd be charging at night, thus needing to store enough kwh to sustain you through the night, including charging the cars?

      Then there's the cost of the batteries for IN the EV.

      It's the batteries tend to be a killer in off grid systems. Makes spending $3k on a sun frost freezer worth it.

      By the way, what capacity system were you looking at? Perhaps a link to the $35k kit? How many kwh do you use a month? I'm guessing around a thousand.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    60. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      The typical off-grid solar system includes 3 days of power storage. The price quoted alwyas has included this.

      You can typically get a 4.5-5 KW system which is sufficient for 100% of most peoples usage given that you have solar water heater and are reasonably conservative with your power consumption (using CFL, turing off lights, not going over board on AC and having a well insulated house etc). This is especially true for me as I have a solar insulation of about 5.5. Therefore a 5 KW system will generate about 850 KWH a month. I use 1000 and have an electric water heater right now. Driving 5000 miles a month between my wife and myself would roughly double the consumption. Therefore a 12 KW system would cover everything. (However I plan on moving in about 2 years to a place where we don't need to drive as much.)

      Going above 5KW will typically mean acustom designed system. However the larger you get the better you can optimize it and you typically get better buy for money.

      The general rule of thumb for an New off-grid system installed is $8 a watt for systems 4 KW and larger. This includes inverters, power monitors, 3 days of battery backup, specialty wiring, dedicated breaker box and of course the solar panels and mounting.

      For me personally, I am probably going to go with used solar panels to start with. The price is significantly less (sometimes 50%) and the efficiency is typically 90% or better of the original rating. I am going to do this for two reasons. First is price. Second is power growth. As my need for power grows I can replace the worst panels with brand new ones at a higher efficiency. This would allow me to slightly increase my power production without doing a major overhaul or expansion of the system. I can cut down the price of the initial system to about $6 a watt or less. This is all assuming that there will not be a major improvement in solar or battery efficiency or cost in the next 5 years. However I will acknowledge that I would make some cencessions. For instance I probably would not buy a system large enough to cover all my needs in the worst part of winter. Therefore I would use a small generator as backup deuring December/January as needed. But we are only talking about maybe 20-30 gallons of gasoline to make up the difference for the year.

      As for the batteries in the EV, of course I am not counting thoes. Just like I don't count the cost of the engine block in my current car. An electric car is just a room on wheels without the batteries. The cost of thoes batteries are worked into the price. There are several plugin hybrid models that are coming out in the next year for under $30K.

      I don't have the link for prices but they aren't hard to find. I just did a google search.

      One of the largest obstacles to wide spread adoption is that most people only ive in a house for 3-5 years. Therefore the 7-15 year payback is a bit more than most people are willing to wait for. Once the payback drops to 3-5 years (about $10,000 at todays power prices) by decreasing cost of solar and increasing cost of conventional power, many people will start shifting over. This of course will strain the electric companies making them raise prices (or shift to cheaper sources like, at that point, solar).

    61. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      There are several plugin hybrid models that are coming out in the next year for under $30K.

      And you can get a new gasoline vehicle for $12-15k. That's the sort of thing I'm talking about. $15k is around 4k gallons of gasoline at the moment, or about what I'd use in around 5 years. Plus, you'd still be using substantional amounts of gasoline given your driving amounts. It'd help if you can plug in at work, of course.

      This of course will strain the electric companies making them raise prices (or shift to cheaper sources like, at that point, solar).

      People shifting over to grid connected solar or even disconnecting would allow them to not have to add new capacity and use their existing(cheap) sources as a larger proportion of their power. The only reason they'd have to start raising prices if they started getting so many of them that the losses in revenue exceeded growth of new power users and started cutting into money available for grid maintenance.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    62. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1
      The $30K car will have the same appointments as a $28K car. Power everything, AC, Cd player, leather seats, navigation system etc. Going to a plugin hybrid is a 2K preimuim (6-7%). The system COULD be put in cheaper cars however there are fixed costs (yes the batteries) that make it less (not un-) economical. Plus the current market for these cars tend to be people who want 25-30K+ cars rather than cheaper cars. It is primarily a marketing decision rather than an economic one.

      Now since electrics take 2 cents a mile to operate while gasoline powered cars are up around 50 cents a mile, that 2 grand pays itself off quickly. Even hybrids with the double systems only cost 20-30 cents to operate.

      People shifting over to grid connected solar or even disconnecting would allow them to not have to add new capacity and use their existing(cheap) sources as a larger proportion of their power. The only reason they'd have to start raising prices if they started getting so many of them that the losses in revenue exceeded growth of new power users and started cutting into money available for grid maintenance. The major issue with the power industry is the incredibly high fixed costs. This is why power companies grow to be so large. It is essentially uneconomical to be smaller. For instance, Hydro has no fuel costs therefore so long as demand doesn't exceed the input into the lake (which limits the power production availible) it essentially costs the same number of dollars to serve one customer as it does to serve one million. Nuclear power is much the same. The cost of uranium is less than a percent of the total cost of the power making nuclear plants independent of fuel costs and therefore 90+% of the expenses are fixed. Even coal is less than 20% from the cost of the fuel itself. I remember seeing a number from a coal website that stated powerplants are uneconomical if operated below 80% of capacity. This is why load leveling is so huge in the power industry.

      If even 10% of residential users produced their own power you would see a huge portion (30-50%) of power companies go bankrupt.
    63. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      If even 10% of residential users produced their own power you would see a huge portion (30-50%) of power companies go bankrupt.

      No you wouldn't. Home power usage is only one of consumers of electricity. You also have business and industrial use. If anything, they'd make more money than ever if plug-in hybrids become common. The 80% thing depends, generally the economic portion of that is that power is cheap because most plants(coal or nuclear) can achieve that.

      Because of the things you talked about, PEAK power tends to be multiple times as expensive as base load. With some incentives, you simply set up the charging circuit for the PHEV so the power company can shut off the charge when non-discretionary demands are high. My parents and grandparents have those circuits on their water heaters and AC. You can often get the power for those circuits at half cost.

      Given reduced peak demand during the day(solar) and increased demand at night(PHEV), power companies would be seeing significant load leveling, and be able to increase their cheap base load power sources and turn off much of their expensive peak sources.

      Of course, new nuclear power plant designs often incorporate options to also be able to use the heat directly for various uses. For example, rather than discharging waste heat into a river, why not use it to distill water? Run an ethanol plant? Produce hydrogen? Design the process so it can be interrupted or scaled back during peak demands and you have a huge load leveling ability.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    64. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      Yes I know that residential is not all power. You also have commercial and municipal. Residential is less than 1/3 of total power consumption. But given that as a fact, if 10% of RESIDENTIAL consumers move to off grid solar (or wind etc) than many power companies will have to go bankrupt.

      The reason is the 80% number. Most power plants can't spin up and spin down very easily. It can take 3+ days to spin up a nuclear power plant. Coal plants take 6-12 hours. Hydro is a bit better at about 1 hour. Now during the day most residential consumption is almost nil (you have fridges, a few lights and a little AC/heat). Commercial and municipal take a HUGE portion of the power. This is where the peak power from baseline comes from. However after closing the power used by commercial and municipal drops to almost nothing (yes a few business run 24 hrs a day but those are relatively rare and just add to the baseline number). At the same time residential spins up, people turn on TV's computers, AC/Heat goes on high, laundry gets done, lots of lights, dinner gets cooked etc.

      Therefore "Baseline" is actually residential evening use plus a tiny bit of manufacturing. If 10% of the baseline goes away it now becomes uneconomical to run enough power plants to be able to supply peak usage since a lot of power plants will drop below 80%. This will demand a much higher rate (or a LOT of additional subsidies) to make it economical again.

      If electric vehicles become standard part of it will be the demand for quick charges. The technology already exists for a 5 minute recharge but it requires essentially a direct high power line hookup or a slow charge. Most houses will have slow chargers but people will expect electrics to act like gasoline powered cars therefore with a 5 minute recharge people will "fuel" up while they are out and about during the day which will just increase the disparity between baseline and peak. The 10% off grid will probably also charge during the day...

      Power plants release extra heat because it is useless. Look up Carnot efficiency. The amount of useful work in heat is directly related to the temperature difference between the heat source and heat sink. Power plants discharge the extra heat because it isn't useful.

      While there are ways to store power, most of them are dramatically inefficient losing better than 50% of the availible power. While this may help some power plants on the edge of 80%, most will still not be able to make it because the economics no move from 80% active to 90% active to account for the loss in power during conversion.

    65. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      But given that as a fact, if 10% of RESIDENTIAL consumers move to off grid solar (or wind etc) than many power companies will have to go bankrupt.

      No, they wouldn't. They'd actually make MORE money(short term), because they wouldn't have to expend as much capital to expand their generation facilities as much.

      A part of our electrical problem, why we're constantly hearing about 'approaching capacity', 'nearing collapse', is that we don't have excess generation capacity. So we're having to use more expensive alternatives. Despite green alternatives, our demand for power, just like oil, is still expanding. Sure, each individual might be using less, but we have enough additional population to more than make up for it. Unless the 10% happens relatively overnight(say, less than a year), the power companies will be able to adjust. As is, I don't see them having any problems at all. At worst, they might change their charging structures a bit.

      Most houses will have slow chargers but people will expect electrics to act like gasoline powered cars therefore with a 5 minute recharge people will "fuel" up while they are out and about during the day

      How many will do so? Sure, you'll have a transition period where people 'demand' these things, but I figure most people who expect a vehicle to act like a gasoline one will buy a gasoline vehicle. Most people who buy the electric will treat it as an electric. Especially if it works like this: Power company deal(IE your car charges when they want it to): X. Anytime trickle: 2X. 5 minute recharge: Drive to a special facility and pay 4X. People will often change their habits to be able save money. Not to mention time. No need for a 5-10 minute drive to a refueling station, wait in line, stand or sit in your unmoving car for five minutes while it charges.

      You can top off an electric car even with a trickle charge easily enough overnight. Heck, if the EV has the sought after '300 mile range', most people will only have to remember to hook it up once a week. Wouldn't you rather do that at home? For longer journeys, I think that the 'restaurant charge' would become popular. You pull into a sit down restaurant, place your order and have a good meal while your car is charged over the course of 30-60 minutes. Note: At a 300 mile range@75mph=4 hours between stops. Eat breakfast, get on road. Stop at 11 to eat&charge. Leave at 12, stop at 4 for dinner. Drive until 9, charge at hotel/motel. Want more than 12 hours? Get some driving in before breakfast.

      which will just increase the disparity between baseline and peak. The 10% off grid will probably also charge during the day...

      Right now it's much cheaper to stay hooked up to the grid. That theoretically allows you to sell your power to the grid during peak demand, then turn around and draw power during the night/non-peak. And we don't care about the off-grid, as they're not drawing or contributing any power to the grid. Heck, I could say that the off-balancing would be more than made up for by commercial companies using solar panels to cover some of their increased demand. No need for batteries, they need power during the day.

      Power plants release extra heat because it is useless.

      For producing electricity. Not because it's useless. A good portion of it is simply uneconomical to exploit. That's changing today.

      Look up Carnot efficiency.

      I'll respond with an assignment for you to look up 'cogeneration'

      The amount of useful work in heat is directly related to the temperature difference between the heat source and heat sink. Power plants discharge the extra heat because it isn't useful.

      It can be very useful, especially if all you're looking to do is heat something up. Yes, in many systems you'll loose a bit of efficiency in producing electricity. But you can use that heat in near 100% efficiency to run a distilling plant, for ex

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    66. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      I would like to point out that your strategies for managing power plants are already being used and it just barely make it right now. The hydro plants are what make it really possible since they can change fairly quickly. But the major problem is that the hydro potential of the US is pretty well tapped out. Only non-power plat load balancing will enable the current system to stay intact. The problem with non-power plant load balancing is that they are non-productive. They don't generate power they only add overhead to the system and we already established that the overhead of the whole system is the major problem with the current system.

      Remember the whole issue is the disparity between baseline and peak.

      Off grid house DO have the same issue with storage. The difference is that the inefficiencies come primarily from the inverter and these are already factored into the quoted price. Next the difference between the baseline and peak for residential systems are significantly more favorable. Finally residential systems don[t need to store nearly as much.

      You are correct that people who want EV's to act like Gas vehicles they will just buy a gas one...until gas costs $12+ a gallon while an EV will cost an equivalent of $1 a gallon while at the same time EV's cost less because battery tech has improved. Once it becomes blatantly uneconomical for daily commuters to use gas people will expect the same function as their last car.

      Now remember battery tech and solar tech has been increasing fast while the price is dropping even faster. Current projects suggest that a full off-grid system will cost 10-15K total in 10 years. or you can spend 8-12K and an extra 2000 a year just for a grid connect. The economics for residentials become very different. A 10% drop in on-grip people is not unreasonable in the next decade.

      As for as power plants go I see a dramatic change from large centralized systems to regional systems. So you have a large power plant feeding factories that are very close by and those factories operate 24/365 (with electricity and maybe waste heat). Residential systems will be significantly smaller either on an individual basis or local community. The problem with cogen plants is that everything has to be extremely close to each other for an effective use.

    67. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      Remember the whole issue is the disparity between baseline and peak.

      I thought I mentioned that, as well as some potential solutions. As for overhead, are you talking about uneven demand, or regulation and such?

      Take making aluminum, for example. All the economical methods take electricity, lots of it. Let's say you overbuild on nuclear plants. You run the aluminum smelters during the night and such, when the electricity is relatively cheap, and provide power to the public when the call for it is there.

      Off grid house DO have the same issue with storage. The difference is that the inefficiencies come primarily from the inverter and these are already factored into the quoted price.

      I've seen many solutions, most quote max wattage at the panels. Going off grid makes efficiency very dependent upon the battery technology you use - from under 50% to over 80% depending on technology.

      Next the difference between the baseline and peak for residential systems are significantly more favorable. Finally residential systems don[t need to store nearly as much.

      It all adds up. Either you have a thousand one family storage solutions or one thousand family solution. Odds are the one thousand family solution will be better utilized, and therefore cheaper per kwh.

      Now remember battery tech and solar tech has been increasing fast while the price is dropping even faster. Current projects suggest that a full off-grid system will cost 10-15K total in 10 years.

      I tend to recheck solar solutions every six months or so. I'll believe it when I see it.

      or you can spend 8-12K and an extra 2000 a year just for a grid connect. The economics for residentials become very different. A 10% drop in on-grip people is not unreasonable in the next decade.

      A 10% drop of the percentage of people on-grid, along with a 20% overall increase of people on the grid is perfectly possible. Especially if people start abandoning the suburbs, and consequently the individual roofs that make individual installs possible.

      So you have a large power plant feeding factories that are very close by and those factories operate 24/365 (with electricity and maybe waste heat). Residential systems will be significantly smaller either on an individual basis or local community. The problem with cogen plants is that everything has to be extremely close to each other for an effective use.

      Not a bad idea. Yes cogen plants have some detriments, but please note that I've been suggesting industrial purposes. Putting an ethanol plant next to a power plant simply means a bit more traffic on the access roads as the ethanol plant workers come in along with the power plant workers. Meanwhile the power plant gets money for it's otherwise wasted heat and the ethanol plant gets cheap heat, helping both along.

      Heck putting up a wind turbine next to my town would power the whole thing, on average, not to mention reduce average waste on the power lines by keeping the amps on them down. You'd loose power when the wind isn't in the right range, but the line would still be there to pick up the slack.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    68. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by clonan · · Score: 1

      This has been a fun debate.

      I think we can both agree that the current electrical system will not cut it for much longer. We are currently a petroleum society and I hope we can move to an electrical one. The EV will probably cause major disruption but in the end will accelerate the trend.

      At this point I think we can also agree that for some solar off as well as on-grid systems are not only economical but also practical. However most people would not benifit yet and in the end there will always be a need for centrally generated and distributed power.

      See ya in a different thread!

    69. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      Agreed. Personally, I think that in the end the increased demand for EVs will increase the number of (hopefully clean) baseload power plants.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
    70. Re:Dramatic efficiency improvements unlikely. by Starcub · · Score: 1

      So I'm guessing that means you pay about $3/gal for crude, and we pay about $2.80/gal which I admit is much closer than I had thought. However, the EU is our strongest political ally and also the second biggest contributor of military power on behalf of western economic interests, so I guess it shouldn't have been much of a surprise.

      So have you gotten anywhere with more responsible alternatives in return for your eco-tax? If our government would impliment something similar, maybe it would discourage the purchase of gas and instead subsidize the expansion of alternatives that have been larglely neglected by our political leaders. Unfortunately I don't believe that's coming anytime soon given our leadership's ties to international economic profiteering and the oil industry in particular.

  9. Already been done in nature by Turken · · Score: 1, Funny

    Last I heard, polar bears are already nature's hairy solar collectors. So all we have to do is hunt them down for their skins to make super efficient solar panels so that we can stop the global warming and thus save all the polar... umm...

    1. Re:Already been done in nature by MountainLogic · · Score: 2

      Polar bears make very poor harry solar solar collectors. Their white fur has a very high albedo and their high latitude habitat results in high Angle of incidence. Generally speaking, grizzlies and black bears are a much better choice of harry solar collectors given their fur color and more equatorial habitat. So the correct solution is to hunt down all the grizzlies and black bears for their skins to make super efficient solar panels so that we can stop the global warming and thus save all the polar bears. There is also the case of the ghost bears, but I'm not clear on their IR albedo.

    2. Re:Already been done in nature by shentino · · Score: 1

      Polar bear fur absorbs UV, not IR.

      They have black skin. The fur acts as a light pipe, sorta like fiber optic.

    3. Re:Already been done in nature by MountainLogic · · Score: 1
      I guess this goes back to the original question and what bandwidth are we trying to absorb? Is this just PV bears or are we talking themro-solar bears?

      SO I guess white fur and black skin opens all kinds of opportunities for advertisers to shave sponsorship logos into polar bear's fur. Too bad the skin is not red or blue as it would open up all kinds of Coke or Pepsi opportunities. If I were a polar bear it seems like Apple might be a good sponsor to approach.

    4. Re:Already been done in nature by rally2xs · · Score: 0

      And I hear that the polar bear meat goes well with spotted owl soup and snail darter sushi.

  10. They already invented these by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They call them "cats".

  11. I hope nobody is planning to touch these things by LuminaireX · · Score: 1

    Handling broken glass is bad enough, now we have engineered nano-shards of it? I hope nobody falls or steps on these

    1. Re:I hope nobody is planning to touch these things by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I hope all them green hippies fall into them!

    2. Re:I hope nobody is planning to touch these things by toby34a · · Score: 1

      An even better question is what happens to these things after a hailstorm... in a lot of the Midwest/South hailstorms happen fairly often... would these PV cells break? And with nanowires lying around, would that act as a nice lightning attractor? Anyone know if hailstorms can knock out PV cells?

  12. Wow, are u clueless or what by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Informative

    Thermal solar is the lowest costs of all AE except for hydro. At this time, it is the same costs as a recent coal plant i.e. a plant that is cleaner than average. Of course, the solar thermal is clean all the way around.
    In addition, it is fairly easy to store the heat in salts and generate during the night. Spain, Arizona, New Mexico, Northern Africa, etc. are all headed in GW size of solar thermal. Spain expects to sell power back to its northern neighbors at a tidy profits. Arizona has a 1/4 GW install going in. In addition, another group is close to building a 1/2-3/4 GW in NM or southern CO (possible to take advantage of 3 different power companies and 5 states incentives).

    All in all, the only joke is a fool like you.

    1. Re:Wow, are u clueless or what by kesuki · · Score: 1

      solar thermal has a number of problems, though, not the least of which is that pipes that are gotten very hot by the sun tend to burst or at least fracture much more frequently than in other applications...

      in systems large enough to generate megawatts of electricity there are solutions to this problem, but systems meant to be installed on top of a residential roof are notoriously bad for needing to be repaired every season, for some unlucky souls...

    2. Re:Wow, are u clueless or what by caffeineboy · · Score: 2, Interesting

      ..and I'll believe it when I see it.

      Planned installations chasing incentives are a far cry from power plants installed to meet grid needs.

      24h power (storage and retrieval of energy) is unnecessary system complexity when you are not looking to replace the current grid, and at their current level of deployment (nil, pretty much) this is not a concern. You might want to co-fire with natural gas to avoid thermal cycling of your plant like they do at Kramer Junction in CA, but that's beside the point.

      Furthermore, there is a strong disincentive to producing 24h, and that is the overnight bulk rate for electricity - maybe $.06/kwh vs more than $.20 at peak when you have the solar resource.

      --
      +++ ATH0 +++
    3. Re:Wow, are u clueless or what by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      but systems meant to be installed on top of a residential roof are notoriously bad for needing to be repaired every season, for some unlucky souls... Your anecdote is stale. It was also retired two decades ago. Modern systems are reliable to the degree of other residential systems. This is due to engineering and manufacturing improvements
    4. Re:Wow, are u clueless or what by timmarhy · · Score: 1, Informative

      nonsense. the largest thermo solar power plant is just 64 mega watt - enough for 15,000 homes. compared to coal fired stations that can supply 700,000 homes, yes it's a JOKE.

      --
      If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
    5. Re:Wow, are u clueless or what by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      This weekend i am giving a tour of a residential roof top solar thermal system that has been in operation for 20+ years. It only went through one upgrade during that time.

      There may have been problems with systems installed back in the 70s but few problems with modern systems.

      In China and Europe there thousands of these systems installed and they have proven very reliable.

      Not sure why these myths are so persistent.

    6. Re:Wow, are u clueless or what by Smoke2Joints · · Score: 1

      keep pushing your point of view, it might come true!

    7. Re:Wow, are u clueless or what by jelle · · Score: 2, Informative

      The first coal plants couldn't even supply one modern home with power... They have plans to build 'em much bigger, such as 553MW for Mojave Solar Park: http://media.cleantech.com/1522/pg-e-solel-in-553-mw-solar-deal

      --
      --- Hindsight is 20/20, but walking backwards is not the answer.
    8. Re:Wow, are u clueless or what by iNaya · · Score: 1

      If he keeps pushing his point of view there will be more humour in the world? I'm up for that!!

      --
      The Unicode standard is over 20 years old. Why does Slashdot not support it?
    9. Re:Wow, are u clueless or what by iminplaya · · Score: 1

      Ok, so we put up 46.666667 thermo solar plants. A beowulf cluster, if you will. Got lots of empty desert out there. Besides we should quit burning coal. Even nuclear is better than that.

      --
      What?
    10. Re:Wow, are u clueless or what by Ex-MislTech · · Score: 1

      Some ppl own stocks in companies that would be hurt by
      a solar revolution.

      So you cannot expect ppl to embrace a technology that
      will impact their wallets.

      The US is gearing up on Wind, and Solar, but not at the
      pace it should.

      The afore mentioned oil and gas folks are the likely reason.

      We won't run out of natural gas for electricity any time
      real soon, but the day is coming.

      At the price of a nuclear plant, I'd rather see Solar Thermal
      go in out in the middle of desert in the more lifeless sections.

      I understand some sections of the desert have cities, and
      some life, but large sections ie. 10% possibly more are
      largely lifeless.

      --
      google "32 trillion offshore needs IRS attention"
    11. Re:Wow, are u clueless or what by Ex-MislTech · · Score: 1

      The SEGS is the largest at 354 MW, but larger ones are soon
      to come online as other posters have mentioned.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SEGS

      Total Solar Thermal for just 10% of the Sahara is over
      3 times all power used on Earth in 2005 at 40% Efficiency.

      So for those who disdain Solar thermal, it could make
      all the hydrogen for fuel cells for earth easily.

      Setting up the system and managing it will be a Herculean
      task thou.

      --
      google "32 trillion offshore needs IRS attention"
    12. Re:Wow, are u clueless or what by Firethorn · · Score: 1

      I agree. One nuclear plant wouldn't satisfy our needs, neither would one dam, coal, wind turbine, etc... There's thousands upon thousands of gas stations.

      Not to mention that diversity is good. That way one problem won't take down the entire grid, like grounding all 747s because of a discovered serious problem wouldn't stop all air travel.

      Personally, I'd be building nuclear plants while encouraging those who live in more southern areas to install solar water heating systems. Might even save more electricity than replacing incandescent lights. Stuff like that.

      --
      I don't read AC A human right
  13. Could have swore by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I spotted the same story last week.

  14. Fraud alert ... by ScrewMaster · · Score: 4, Funny

    These guys are scammers ... it's the old When Hairy Met Sili Con.

    --
    The higher the technology, the sharper that two-edged sword.
    1. Re:Fraud alert ... by moondawg14 · · Score: 1

      gah! my kingdom for a +1 Funny!

  15. Tin whiskers? by fabu10u$ · · Score: 1
    FTFA:

    At UC San Diego, scientists were able to grow nanowires directly on an inexpensive indium tin oxide conductive surface.
    So now tin whiskers are good?
    --
    They say the mind is the first thing to ... uh, what's that saying again?
  16. Wow, ANOTHER solar cell breakthrough by GodfatherofSoul · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Wake me up when there's actually a cheap product. These articles need their own icon; maybe Bigfoot, the Easter Bunny, Santa Claus, the Loch Ness Monster, or La Chupacabra.

    --
    I swear to God...I swear to God! That is NOT how you treat your human!
    1. Re:Wow, ANOTHER solar cell breakthrough by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're probably old. As in you read about these technologies in the 1970s. From that perspective I suppose you have a point. The one factor that makes all the difference here is CARBON NANOTUBES. They're a very recent development and will make all the difference in solar. It isn't the 70s anymore so stop thinking it is and read up about current solar technology, which is leaps and bounds ahead of the 70s dinosaurs.

    2. Re:Wow, ANOTHER solar cell breakthrough by GodfatherofSoul · · Score: 1

      Lol, well in the 70s my only interest in solar power was to illuminate my recess time. I'm talking about all of the "breakthroughs" I've read about on Slashdot in the past 5 years.

      I suspect that it's a bit of what the drug industry used to do (still do?) back in the 90s. A public company would publish spurious claims of an impending cure to AIDS, cancer, etc., then a swarm of investors would dump money on them. Six months later, no one remembered the story and the company walked away with the cash. I can't count how many stories of a cure to a hideous disease reported to be 5-10 years away.

      --
      I swear to God...I swear to God! That is NOT how you treat your human!
    3. Re:Wow, ANOTHER solar cell breakthrough by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Oil.

      It used to be dirt cheap, but now it's stabilizing on a level that's more appropriate, given the supply, and enviromental cost of use.

  17. Effort actualy has to be put in by dbIII · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Nuclear always comes up in discussions like this. The answer for nuclear is to put as much effort into research as is going into solar research - instead the money has gone into lobbying to build antiquated plants. If more research was done pebble bed might be furthur along, accelerated thorium might be at the full prototype stage and synrock might have been developed in less than thirty years. Note that the three major developments come from South Africa, India and Australia on fairly small budgets from begrudging governments - think what the USA could have done on venture capital alone. There should be more to civilian nuclear energy than 1960s white elephants painted green.

  18. I have 2 words for you by v(*_*)vvvv · · Score: 1

    1. batteries

    2. deserts

  19. Lots of NG electricity for you... by Firethorn · · Score: 1

    I find it interesting that you're 40% NG(20% cola) and that you're getting 7.68 c/KWh.

    NG generally has cheap construction costs and expensive running costs. But you probably have substantional cheap NG deposits.

    --
    I don't read AC A human right
    1. Re:Lots of NG electricity for you... by Ex-MislTech · · Score: 1

      Oh yeah, Oklahoma has massive natural gas wells.

      Some were so massive when they came in they caused minor earthquakes.

      There are literally dozens if not hundreds of them.

      Oklahoma is the 3rd largest Natural Gas producer in the US.

      Suprised we use any coal at all.

      --
      google "32 trillion offshore needs IRS attention"