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Only One Quarter of the Planet To Be Online By 2012

Stony Stevenson writes "Researchers are predicting that one quarter of the world's population will be connected to the internet within the next four years. According to the report by Jupiter Research, the total number of people online will climb to 1.8 billion by 2012, encompassing roughly 25 percent of the planet. The company sees the highest growth rates in areas such as China, Russia, India and Brazil. Overall, the number of users online is predicted to grow by 44 percent in the time period between 2007 and 2012." Is it just me or does that seem incredibly small?

43 of 206 comments (clear)

  1. It may be small... by scubamage · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It does seem small, but you have to consider that most of the world doesn't live up to 'industrialized' and 'information age' standards of living. Its actually a pretty incredible number.

    1. Re:It may be small... by defnoz · · Score: 5, Insightful

      In other news, 1/3 of the world's population don't have access to clean water and/or enough food. If only they could write about it in their blag.

    2. Re:It may be small... by aurispector · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Seriously! Doesn't anyone read the news? Most of the world's population lives in abject poverty compared to western standards. All you need to is see that pic of the world at night from space - lights visible in the US, Europe, Japan and a few scattered major cities - everything else is dark.

      --
      I have mod points. The reign of terror begins now.
    3. Re:It may be small... by cunamara · · Score: 5, Insightful

      But then again, roughly one half of the Earth's population lives on $3 per day or less. I would imagine that their priorities aren't broadband and a laptop. Not dying today from malnutrition might rqank a little higher on their priorities.

    4. Re:It may be small... by CastrTroy · · Score: 2, Funny


      We must not let there be an information gap!
      </Strangelove>

      --

      Anthropic principle: We see the universe the way it is because if it were different we would not be here to see it.
    5. Re:It may be small... by damburger · · Score: 5, Interesting

      OK, I'm going to go completely outside the box for a moment and risk getting mocked for this, but what the hell...

      What if we did get people without food and clean water online?

      There is enough clean water for everyone. There is enough food for everyone. It isn't getting to the people that need it for various reasons; corruption, war, market failures. The common thread in these is a lack of correct information; corruption involves people deliberately misrepresenting information, war makes it dangerous to collect information, and market failures are normally trigged by bad information.

      Areas where people starve are normally pretty opaque to information and that makes it harder to help people. If we were to give people in these areas better means of communication might it help allocate resources to solving the problems of food, water etc? It would be similar to how mobile phones were used to let the world know what was happening in Burma not long ago. Better information means better action.

      --
      If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we shoot people for Apollo-related non-sequiturs?
    6. Re:It may be small... by Sponge+Bath · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Chances are there are already people who are living where the food and water are, and they will shoot you (or confine you to a refugee camp) if you try to move there and compete for those resources.

    7. Re:It may be small... by daveatneowindotnet · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Two problems jump to mind. First refugees aren't often treat well. See Zimbabwians (sp?) in South Africa. Second people without clean water are rarely in an economic situation which enables picking up and moving.

    8. Re:It may be small... by scubamage · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Well you also have to worry about warlords intercepting food shipments. Or people being afraid of food shipments (especially from the US) because they would use packaging designed to look exactly like unexploded bomblets. So a starving person had just as much of a chance of blowing themselves up as getting some poptarts. There is misinformation, but there are also a lot of powerplays with fear that are well known.

    9. Re:It may be small... by IWannaBeAnAC · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They try to, but most countries discourage (at the point of a gun) such mass immigration. What do you think would happen if 2 billion poor people tried to enter the USA? Firstly, how would they get there? Secondly, would the USA let them in?

    10. Re:It may be small... by damburger · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Civilians in areas requiring aid could, if they were connected, report the movement of warlords (and as often, government troops) that might interrupt food shipments. Having lines of communication could also provide a way of verifying the contents of packages.

      --
      If we can put a man on the moon, why can't we shoot people for Apollo-related non-sequiturs?
    11. Re:It may be small... by benwiggy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I think you fail to understand how difficult it is to move out of the sort of extreme and dire poverty that persists in the world.
      Try moving to a more abundant farming area, whose inhabitants look upon you as an outsider who is muscling in on their scarce resources.
      Try moving from a rural existence, where your food comes from your labours, to the city, where you must buy your food with money. (Where unskilled labour is dirt cheap.
      Try getting a passport without spending a large amount of money.
      Try getting a visa to Europe or US if you come from Africa.

      Before you judge a man, walk a mile in his shoes.

    12. Re:It may be small... by T-Bone-T · · Score: 2, Interesting

      How do you propose we get Internet access to these people? We can't even get food or water to them. You listed corruption, war, and market failures as reasons for that but then you ignore them when you start talking about the Internet. Food and water don't need much infrastructure for transport, just people. Unfortunately, the Internet doesn't work like that.

    13. Re:It may be small... by Cro+Magnon · · Score: 5, Funny

      Before you judge a man, walk a mile in his shoes.

      Interesting saying. I'd guess most of those people don't even have shoes.

      --
      Slow down, cowboy! It has been 4 hours since you last posted. You must wait another few hours.
    14. Re:It may be small... by OpenSourceNut · · Score: 2, Informative

      Here's another picture to look at..

      http://williamwnekowicz.com/pictureoftheday/?p=40

      Those tarps are where people live. It's monsoon season in India.. they don't hold up very well in the rain.

      --
      I'm now in Poland: http://williamwnek
    15. Re:It may be small... by westlake · · Score: 3, Insightful
      Civilians in areas requiring aid could...report the movement of warlords...that might interrupt food shipments.

      How do you keep the lines of communications open against the opposition of either the local warlord or whoever represents legitimate - centralized - authority? It can shorten your life to be in possession of a radio. The mesh network has the potential to expose everyone who is part of the mesh.

    16. Re:It may be small... by T-Bone-T · · Score: 3, Insightful

      You are right about the military being able to set up advanced communications in a war zone but I doubt those systems are meant to stay for very long. It is a noble goal, but there are goals that should be reached first. The Internet is a luxury, not a basic necessity. Once the basic necessities are taken care of in a place, only then can we consider helping them acquire luxuries.

    17. Re:It may be small... by Anne_Nonymous · · Score: 3, Insightful

      >> What if we did get people without food and clean water online?

      C134n H20 4 ch34p!!! G3+ h3r w3t and h341thy!!! Fa5+ 5h1ppi4g, 10w pr1c3z!!!

    18. Re:It may be small... by Omestes · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I kind of like people... Being one and all.

      I'm as misanthropic as the next basement dweller, but I have some issues with forced sterilization, and mass murder. I can understand (if not fully agree) with people who think that other species/ecosystems have as much right to exist as we do, but when we even even further decided that they have MORE rights, then I get a little confused. Aren't we just another species, and our cities/town/ghettos just another ecosystem?

      The way I see it, the best way to improve conditions for everyone and everything is education. The more educated people are, the less children they have, the less they buy into extreme religious dogmas (which can be detrimental to human conditions). Education is also good for organization, which is essential for improving conditions, since most of the 3rd worlds problems can be attributed to bad governments.

      Education would also increase the use of birth-control, both by giving people foresight, and by limiting bad religious dogmas against it. Which would lead to a decrease in population growth (many UN charts already show it evening out in the near future), in a couple decades perhaps Africa would be showing the same trend of much of the first world, falling populations.

      Of course on problem with this is that these newly educated society would want the west's toys, meaning rabid (typo for rapid, but they both fit) industrialization, and all the problems that causes (see China).

      But then to get a good education, the third world would also have to have stable governments first. Which is a somewhat a circular argument.

      --
      A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey
  2. 1.8 Billion with a B by sweatyboatman · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Seriously, it's just you.

    --
    It breaks my pluginses, my precious!
  3. Is it just me... by debest · · Score: 4, Insightful

    ... or do you not realize how poor most of the planet is?

    --
    Look at the tomato! Isn't it sad? He can't dance! Poor tomato!
  4. It is small, but... by tidewaterblues · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Without seeing the survey I can't confirm this, but I would suspect that they are only counting Internet connections to the home or office. The number is much larger when you consider the number of people in developing and 3rd world nations who access the Internet in public venues, like cafes and libraries. But getting a good count here would be very complex.

    --


    ...En að Besta Sem Guð Hefur Skapað Er Nýr Dagur
    1. Re:It is small, but... by OpenSourceNut · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I have yet to see an internet cafe here in India. Two types of people exist.. the ones with access to the internet because they work in software and make money.. and the day laborers who don't know what a computer is.

      There is no middle ground. You will not see a day laborer hitting up a cafe to check his email. Just no.

      --
      I'm now in Poland: http://williamwnek
  5. Is it just me or does that seem incredibly small? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    THAT'S WHAT SHE SAID!!!

  6. Not small at all by elrous0 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    It's easy for us 1st world Westerners to forget what life is like most people in China, India, Africa, etc. Sure, things are getting better in those places, but that's only for the middle and upper class.

    --
    SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
    1. Re:Not small at all by antirelic · · Score: 2, Informative

      "IPv4 uses 32-bit (four-byte) addresses, which limits the address space to 4,294,967,296 (232) possible unique addresses. "

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPv4

      Thats alot of people using a system that never really intended to accommodate such a massive volume of users.

      --
      20th century Marxism is not progress...
  7. It's not bad at all considering. by jeiler · · Score: 4, Informative

    About one quarter of the world doesn't have electricity. (1.6 B according to IEA, 2 B according to Greenpeace).

    --

    If you haven't been down-modded lately, you aren't trying.

    Sacred cows make the best hamburger.

  8. 25% of the Planet? by iTowelie · · Score: 5, Funny

    Isn't that all of us? I thought the Earth was covered by 75% water? iT

    1. Re:25% of the Planet? by junglee_iitk · · Score: 2, Informative

      No, 75% of the Earth is covered by almost 100% water.

      Thanks, I will be here all day :)

  9. yes, it's small by xZgf6xHx2uhoAj9D · · Score: 2, Interesting

    According to Wikipedia, there are 1.407 billion people online in 2008. So they're predicting a 30% increase over 4 years? Considering in the 1990s we would have had a 1500% increase over 4 years (again, using Wikipedia as a source: 100% increase per year), that seems remarkably underwhelming.

  10. IPv4 by smitty97 · · Score: 2, Insightful

    So then 4,294,967,296 addresses should be enough for everybody

    --
    mod me funny
  11. Not a fair normalization... by Orleron · · Score: 3, Interesting

    The number of people online divided by the world's population is a not fair comparison. Think of all the infants and toddlers that aren't online because they are too young, or all the people who are too disabled to use the Internet. Even if you theoretically included the people who didn't have electricity or money to get onto the 'net in the calculation, it still doesn't make sense to include those who are otherwise not physically able to use a computer if they had one. I would like to see the percentage of people on the 'net relative to the number of people who CAN be on the yet, as in physically able.

  12. Illiteracy by onosson · · Score: 4, Informative

    I thank the overall literacy rate must be related to this - even abundant access to a computer won't mean much if you can't read. According to the OLPC website, "Most of the nearly twoâ"billion children in the developing world are inadequately educated, or receive no education at all. One in three does not complete the fifth grade." Also, let's not forget that much of the world does not have access to electricity on a regular basis. Also from the OLPC website: "...XO can be recharged by human power. This is a critical advance for the half-billion children who have no access to electricity."

    --
    ? syntax error
  13. It's just you... by bushboy · · Score: 4, Insightful

    ... in reality, it's incredibly large!

    Having lived in what is effectively a third world country, South African, for about 15 years, one thing is painfully obvious when compared with life in a first world country. The vast majority of people have little to no access to electricity, let alone the internet!

    It's very hard to understand this unless you witness it first hand - it's all to easy to think "but surely everyone needs to be on the internet?"

    The reality is for most of humanity, the struggle to put food on the plate and shelter themselves is the main driving force in their daily lives.

    I'm therefore suprised at how many people are online, not how few - completely the opposite reaction to the parent.

    --
    A slashdotting - you get the stick first and then the carrot !
  14. Re:Lucky by cayenne8 · · Score: 2, Funny
    "Yeah, yeah, yeah, I know what's going to be said. But, if you have enough to eat, a place to live, and decent medical care, what else do you really need?"

    Hookers!

    :-)

    But seriously...I don't need this stuff, and I don't need you. I don't need anything except this ashtray.

    And that's it and that's the only thing I need, is this. I don't need this or this. Just this ashtray. And this paddle game, the ashtray and the paddle game and that's all I need. And this remote control. The ashtray, the paddle game, and the remote control, and that's all I need. And these matches. The ashtray, and these matches, and the remote control and the paddle ball. And this lamp. The ashtray, this paddle game and the remote control and the lamp and that's all I need. And that's all I need too. I don't need one other thing, not one - I need this. The paddle game, and the chair, and the remote control, and the matches, for sure. And this. And that's all I need. The ashtray, the remote control, the paddle game, this magazine and the chair.

    And I don't need one other thing, except my dog.

    [dog growls and barks]

    I don't need my dog.

    --
    Light travels faster than sound. This is why some people appear bright until you hear them speak.........
  15. Tool or toy. by ROMRIX · · Score: 4, Informative

    Is it just me or does that seem incredibly small?

    Firstly you need to think of how many third world countries there are and also developed nations where there is a vast agricultural society where the internet is just an irrelevant "fancy" for city dwellers to keep themselves entertained. You and I might find the internet a necessary tool for our trades and daily lives but going back 20 or 30 years, could you see yourself becoming so dependent on such a device as a people? Instant information and communication have become woven into the very fabric of who we are but there are many more people out there that simply have no use for it. It steals idle time like heroin steals life. You only need to walk away from it for a few days, or hours in some cases, to feel its draw. Many that have fell into its grasp cannot free themselves, their very livelihood depends on it. For others, the majority it seems, it is simply a useless tool or senseless toy to occupy the minds of those who have access to it. To them it's as useful as a canoe is to a desert goat herder.
  16. Perspective by Gothmolly · · Score: 3, Funny

    It is just you. There are literally billions of people who have not heard of WoW, a MacBook, or your parents' basement. There IS a whole world out there, you know, in that room outside the server room, where the sky is sometimes blue and sometimes black with little white led lights, where the HVAC is on the blink half the time. You know that big room?

    --
    I want to delete my account but Slashdot doesn't allow it.
  17. Re:Eee etc... by schnikies79 · · Score: 2, Informative

    I don't think you realize the true definition of poor.

    No one is going to by an Eee on $3/day. No matter what the price.

    --
    Gone!
  18. Re:Lucky by dotancohen · · Score: 2, Informative


    But seriously...I don't need this stuff, and I don't need you. I don't need anything except this ashtray.

    You jerk.
    --
    It is dangerous to be right when the government is wrong.
  19. Only 1.8 billion? by geekoid · · Score: 2, Informative

    1.8 billion people online is fantastic. Sure we want more, but let's not forget that a whole lot of people!

    1.8 billion people communicating outside there immediate sphere of influence. The lower the bar to knowledge, the better the global society will be.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  20. I predict... by hackstraw · · Score: 3, Informative

    that in 2008 only 50% of the planet will have a telephone.

    http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/med_tel_sub-media-telephone-subscribers

  21. Re:Eee etc... by dreamchaser · · Score: 3, Informative

    Most people in industrialized nations has access to TV today

    There, fixed it for you.

  22. Re:Jose by Omestes · · Score: 2, Funny

    You MUST live in poverty, to not be able to afford a "Y" or "O" key, or a comma key. Sucks to be you, perhaps we can get the UN to airdrop some keys to Anonymous Cowardisitan.

    --
    A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey