Slashdot Mirror
Voters Swayed By Candidates Who Share Their Looks
iandoh writes "Stanford researchers have found that voters are subconsciously swayed by candidates who share their facial features. In three experiments, researchers at the Virtual Human Interaction Lab worked with cheap, easy-to-use computer software to morph pictures of about 600 test subjects with photos of politicians. And they kept coming up with the same results: For the would-be voters who weren't very familiar with the candidates or in perfect lockstep with their positions or political parties, the facial similarity was enough to clinch their votes."
I work for a company, that is run mostly by women, but the thing is that all the women that work there, they ALL Look like clones. Or they get hired because they look like the owners, as to give them the comfort in what "looks familiar" or to the fact the women, mimic the looks ...no, they all just look so similar makes me thinks it is more common than we think.
I shall stand on the 'butt-ugly' platform. I'm a certain winner based on this research.
Protoplasm. Quiet Protoplasm. I like quiet protoplasm.
...why Cowboy Neal gets all the votes in the slashdot polls.
I've heard statistics from some sources as high as 97% of black voters will be voting for Obama, just google for some of it it's out there. Even if they're off and lets say it's only 85%, still.
If 85% of white people voted for McCain, it would be considered racist.
Just saying.
To all the people tagging this "correlation is not causation," do you even know what you're talking about? This was a randomized experiment.
I'm not saying this is a perfect study -- there might be plenty of other things wrong with it. But the phrase "correlation is not causation" has an actual meaning. It is not just a synonym for "I had a kneejerk reaction to dislike this study but I can't say why."
Frankly, I kind of doubt it. But you never know...
It drives me nuts that Slashdotters always bring up "correlation does not imply causation" any time any sort of experiment is mentioned even if no one is even trying to assert a causative relationship.
"Correlation does not imply causation" seems to be one of those ideas that a lot of people seem to somehow be proud of knowing and as such try to apply even when they aren't needed. Other examples of these sorts of ideas on Slashdot are the term "prior art" and car analogies.
This research is totally bogus. I just like to vote for the ugly candidate.
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- - You can't take something off the Internet! That's like trying to take pee out of a swimming pool.
That may be happening because the headline's misleading (as usual); it should be
/. wouldn't get as many "Um, wha??" clicks, and the more cynical of us would tag the story "noshitsherlock" ;-)
Undecided Voters Swayed by Candidates Who Share Their Looks
But then,
Hey -- There's your idea for a social experiment!
No wonder politicans are two-faced - they're trying to double their votes.
I've wondered for a while if part of what makes white voters more likely to accept Obama as the first black president is the fact that, despite his dark skin color, he has very European facial features. Andrew Sullivan has recently been posting pictures of Obama's (white) grandfather, to whom the presidential candidate bears a striking resemblance.
Obviously, it's impossible to give a truly satisfying answer to such a counterfactual, but I can't help but suspect that if Obama had more stereotypically African features---you know what I mean---that he would not be in the position he is in now.
I don't believe in time. It's a grand conspiracy designed to sell watches.
"correlation is not causation" is one of the most overused mantras of slashdot users who want to be more skeptical than thou. Yes it's true that correlation does not always equal causation, but causation does tend to result in correlation.
It's been shown that people are more attracted to people with similar facial features when choosing mates, it makes some sense that people would feel better about choosing a leader with similar facial features for the same biological reasons.
Now I'm not saying that this hypothesis is clearly true, just that we don't have to jump all over it.
It's sad when choosing an installation directory on your own qualifies you as an "advanced user."
...most slashdotters look kinda like Cheney.
Table-ized A.I.
Barack Obama looks exactly like his grandfather, Stanley Dunham, except Barack's skin is darker and his hair curlier.
Obama is half "Black" and half "White". He's been called "Black" so many times, it's only fair to call him "White". Especially because he looks just like his White family.
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make install -not war
correlation is not caucasian?
The usage of the original phrase really bothers me.
While correlation does not prove causation, it sure does imply causation. It's probably about as close to the definition of imply that I can come up with. The only way I can see the phrase making sense is to use the logic definition of suggest as a logically necessary consequence. Then the original usage may have held a meaning of While causation implies correlation, correlation does not imply causation, basically saying if there is causation, then correlation will follow. So finding correlations is extremely useful, but picking out the root cause of the correlation can be quite difficult, especially when there are multiple factors in play all feeding back on each other.
I'll never make that mistake again, reading the experts' opinions. - Feynman
Before you get demoralized, have you seen Mrs. Kucinich?
Come to think of it, that might explain why there's always a "CowboyNeal" option in the polls...
While correlation does not prove causation, it sure does imply causation.
More simply, causation causes correlation. If you don't have correlation, then you can't claim causation.
More to the point, causation is highly correlated with correlation (rho=0.977).
Problems arise when people claim that correlation causes causation. Since causation is a boolean variable while correlation is real-valued, with suitable rounding, then yes, it's true.
It's all very simple really.
Yes it's true that correlation does not always equal causation, but causation does tend to result in correlation.
err. it's a bit more than "tend to result in"
If causation, then correlation.
or equivalently...
If no correlation, than no causation.
I totally agree. Every single scientific article reporting "A linked with B" gets this ridiculous tag. Almost no scientist every says "A causes B" because they obviously already understand that correlation does not imply correlation. However, correlation also does not imply "not causation." Any reputable scientist and journal will report results of the form "Here is the data. A appears to be statistically linked with B. Here are several hypotheses as to why, however these are speculative and require further study."
Furthermore, causality is something that a lot of very smart statisticians do spend a lot of time studying. It's not inconceivable that in the future people will be able to make concrete statistical statements about causality with confidence intervals and the works. What will the mantra be then?
Anyway, correlation's not *that* good of a measure of (interesting and nonlinear) dependence between (non-Gaussian) variables anyway. Mutual information is the ticket.
Ok, done with my rant.
Nonperiodic Central Trajectory
People tend to like people who are similar to themselves. The old saw "birds of a feather" bit actually rings true a fair amount of the time.
Of course, there's no guarantee that the person who looks vaguely similar to me actually DOES share my views, but if I have no other information to go with, then it's probably a better indicator of who to go with than a coin toss.
Genetics and life experience work together to shape our looks, and those two things also shape our attitudes and actions.
The best explanation is though that despite the great efforts we go through to try and train it out of people, all other things being equal they still prefer in-groups to out-groups. The root of this likely comes from things such as kin selection and the generally tribal nature of early man.
I wonder which candidate a blind person votes for?
I'm not a Troll, it's reverse psychology.
The one that sounds like them.
Most human behaviour can be explained in terms of identity.
In order for the test to work (correct me if I'm wrong), the only factor that they would have been told is that they were voting for a politician in an experiment. When people have nothing else to make a decision on, they will generally try to pick something, no matter how superficial it may seem.
But when voting for someone in the real world, more factors come into play and this test doesn't say anything about how much of an influence this trait plays, which is just as important as the experiment itself if you want to find out what it means in real elections.
Where does the correlation come from then? Unless you suggest that people who look the same ACTUALLY have the same political views.
The correlationisnotcausation tag really winds me up because correlation DOES imply causation. If A and B are correlated then either A causes B, B causes A, or C causes both A and B (or it's a chance finding but that's what p-values are for). So once you have a correlation its just a case of working out which causal relationship is true. I'll leave this specific case as an exercise for the reader.
Because it is very simplistic.
C -> D
D -> F
D -> E
E -> G
G -> A
F -> B
In this relationship C -> A and C -> B
But in order to pinpoint C, you have to work back from A and B via E,F and D. Verifying a C is relatively easy. Finding C can be very nasty. And if there are loops involved it can be a lot nastier.
Sure, correlation implies causation. But which one?
Knowledge is power. Knowledge shared is power lost.
And rightly so.
Most science stories posted to Slashdot are junk science studies which use the law of large numbers and fuzzy statistics to promote the most dubious of arguments under the pretence of scientific inquiry. Many studies take correlation coefficients of 0.5 to be "significant". What a joke. How long is the scientific community going to continue to call this rigour?
Rubbish! Is that what the world construes from their results? Is that what they wish the world to construe from them? No. The vast majority of these studies are putting forward their correlation as proof of causation. That is what they want people to construe from the study. Look at any half baked studies on race, gender, abortion or any topic that sells newspapers. Why do you think people are performing such studies? Because they believe further inquiry is merited? No. It's because they have an opinion, and want to justify it. So they turn to science to legitimise their position. This constant and ongoing abuse of science is sickening.
Slashdotters are right to point out the Correlation is not, and never will be causation. Never, never, never, never, never. If you want to show causation, then you must have a model and you must subject it to experiment. Experiment! Not statistical mumbo-jumbo.
Listen to Zombie Feynman's wisdom. "Ideas are tested by experiment. Everything else is bookkeeping". This is bookkeeping, not science. Correlation is not causation, and this story deserves that tag. I don't know how many times I'm going to end up linking to this page, but here it is again. This study is Cargo Cult Science. The form is perfect, but it is only an empty imitation of real scientific inquiry. Stop giving it more credit and credence that it deserves.
May the Maths Be with you!
Slashdotters are right to point out the Correlation is not, and never will be causation. Never, never, never, never, never. If you want to show causation, then you must have a model and you must subject it to experiment. Experiment! Not statistical mumbo-jumbo.
I think you are wrong. Epidemiology and observational science have given up a lot without the need for experimentation (we know smoking causes lung cancer, though this has never been directly established through an experiment, since it would be massively unethical). Correlation does imply causation, as I've pointed out in an earlier comment, the hard part is working out what the causal relationships are (ie A->B, B->A or C->A and C->B, these are the ONLY explanations for statistically significant correlation).
The reverse possibility B->A here is nonsense, because voting patterns cannot affect your looks, and the way this study was conducted (you can read the details) pretty well rules out the confounding factor 'C', leaving us with A->B as the only plausible explanation.
I'd like to see you try to refute this (without resorting to insults or rhetoric), particularly if you can think of a way for variables to be correlated without some form of causal relationship as I've described.
"Correlation is not causation" is the new "FUD" - it's something people can yell when they dislike something but can't figure out how to refute it, without ever really understanding that the term has an actual, specific meaning.
Of course you'll trust someone which looks like they is from your family / closely related more than someone who's not.
Makes perfect sense and makes me wonder why some people decided that "correlationisnotcausation" was a valid tag for this story. Would be intresting to hear their theory about why this happens if it's not because of the similar looks ...
Yep. I had a boss who had long hair and who had hired me for a customer service position back in the 90s when I had long hair. Every other woman she hired also had long hair. I thought the hair length was incidental until she got a short hair cut and started pressuring all of her employees to cut their hair. I transferred departments to get away from her nuisances.
Dress codes don't have much of a real impact on performance as long as employees don't take advantage and wear clothing that is not appropriate and clean.
However, as long as no one expects me to wear the Evil that is also known as panty-hose, I can deal.
Our company had a very strict pantyhose rule when I first started here; one lady in accounting was actually sent home for wearing shoes with no hose - with a PANT SUIT. Not even a skirt. Just showing a bit of ankle. We only recently have been allowed to wear open-toed shoes in summer.
If you want happy workers, let them dress comfortably. Sheesh.
The House Between - Original Sci-Fi Series
I've been told I look like Sarah Palin, but I am not particularly fond of her. Sure as heck wouldn't vote for her. I'm going to be very careful when I buy new glasses not to get ones that enhance the resemblance.
Your fantasies contain the seeds of important concepts.
Will this simply be a matter of the younger voters going for Obama then?
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Luck is just skill you didn't know you had.
Just like there are people who post without reading the parent. Reading comprehension is a wonderful thing.
"Educate the mind but never at the expense of the soul."~Blessed Basil Moreau
OK first thanks for taking me seriously. I am actually quite flattered that there is now a webpage dedicated to describing how much of an idiot I am.
I also hope you have the good grace to post my rebuttal to both your arguments, first that science cannot be conducted without experiments, and second that correlation does not equal causation. You have my permission to publish this so long as you do so in its entirity.
I'm going to give you a short CV, just so you know (not sure it's relevant but anyway). I have a degree in mathematics, a masters degree in mathematical statistics, a PhD in evolutionary biology (my thesis topic was along the lines of 'what can we infer from comparisons of gene orders of extant species') and I've worked for four years as an epidemiologist on a observational study of health and cognition. It's fair to say that over the past ten years I've thought about the ideas of correlation, causation, and inference for a living. If I had any doubt that what I was doing was fundementally flawed from a scientific point of view I wouldn't do it.
Regarding your Saturn example, well you've managed to find two things that increase with time, but are quite clearly unrelated in every other regard. You have calculated their correlation as 0.88, suggested that I would draw the conclusion that one causes the other, which is plainly absurd, therefore my argument that correlation implies causation is incorrect.
There are two ways I will respond.
The most obvious is that you did not read my argument. I claimed A->B, OR B->A, OR C->A and C->B. Clearly here we have a correlation, so one of these must be true. A->B and B ->A are both obviously silly, so we are left with C->A and C->B. Well what could 'C' be? Here it helps that you've not plotted A vs B as would be traditional to illustrate a correlation, but you've helpfully plotted A and B against a third factor, 'time'. In this case C=time, the passing of time has caused the stock market to increase and has caused Saturn to do whatever it did (I'm not an astronomer). If you do a regression of A vs B adjusting for time I'd be pretty sure you'll see the correlation would be gone.
Second, (and this is a more minor subtle complaint) there is the issue of statistical significance. I don't know but I'd bet the correlation you showed does not hold much outside of the small window you've showed it, and that you've selected this particular example to illustrate your point. If you give me any two time series I could probably find a small window in which they are both increasing, so that correlation is statistically meaningless because of multiple testing issues (note I qualified my initial claim with the words 'statistically significant')
Next, I absolutely agree with you that experimentation is the gold standard of scientific research. I cannot accept however that it is the only way to draw conclusions. Much of science cannot be tested experimentally because it would be impractical, unethical (as with most of the work I do) or just plain silly. My earlier example 'lung cancer is caused by smoking' is a good example of a purely observation finding that was totally unexpected at the time and was found simply on the basis of observing the smoking patterns of people in lung cancer wards compared with others. The big prospective studies came much later, and experiments will never be done, yet I'm sure you would accept this finding as true.
I also agree with you that most science posted on Slashdot is rubbish, for a variety of reasons, mostly because science progresses in very small increments, and so on its own no paper is ever really newsworthy, and has to have its significance bloated out of all proportion to get into the news (ie they fail the 'so what' test). However faulty causation is not often the culprit, because most scientists are very good at adjusting for potential confounders in their relationships (and journals are very go