Linux In 2009 — Recession vs. GNU
RealityThreek sends this excerpt from an article at IT Management:"Pundits and business executives alike are predicting gloomy economic times for 2009. But when the talk turns to free and open source software (FOSS), suddenly the mood brightens. Whether their concern is the business opportunities in open source or the promotion of free software idealism, experts see FOSS as starting from a strong base and actually benefiting from the hard times expected next year. ... [Jim Zemlin, executive director of the Linux Foundation] sees Linux and the FOSS ecosystem surrounding it as having insurmountable advantages in any market over its main competitor Windows — advantages that an economic downturn only intensifies. At a time when a search for the lowest possible price point is happening in such areas as notebooks, FOSS is available at no cost. It is easy to rebrand and customize in a way that Windows Isn't, and is also technically more efficient."
In a recent study of the top 140 corporations in America, 12 were using OpenOffice. That's not exactly much. With the coming recession, I can see quite a few companies deciding to cut their costs and switch to OpenOffice. It beats upgrading to Office 2007, that's for sure.
We only need another 4 companies in that sample to get a 50% market share increase!
Linux also will strenghten its dominant position in servers. Sun is going out of business, just like SGI a few years back. Sun is the only one that doesn't know it yet.
Wait, but if Sun is going out business, who will pay all these engineers who contribute to Open Source projects today? "Houston, we have a problem."
So this pending recession has some good for FOSS, and some not so good. By the way, don't listen to the pundits that tell you the recession will last years. Those same pundits four months ago were saying life is great. They don't have a clue, they just echo the popular opinion of the time.
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Software Bill Of Rights: transparency, open management, equal rights and revenue sharing
And as they've already got fully working and paid for Windows setups, why would they incur costs they don't need to to switch?
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Fear. Nobody got fired for buying IBM. If you complain enough, they'll cut you a deal. If you bet the farm on some hippy software from Finland, at the first sign of trouble, the blame arrow points to you and you get the axe.
I want to delete my account but Slashdot doesn't allow it.
The main thing that has kept the last couple of companies I've worked at from switching from Windows to FOSS is the lack of an integrated mail/contacts/calendar/tasks app that runs on our own servers. For us, this was a show-stopper.
I haven't been keeping tabs on the latest FOSS offerings, so nowadays are there any replacements for Outlook and Exchange?
to be fair to MS, the reason business chooses them is they are cost effective, not because they are the cheapest. compared to vendors like IBM and redhat, MS products represent good value for money.
does anyone seriously believe windows 2003 with sql server 2005 is a bad platform? i'd suggest if you do you've never used it.
If you mod me down, I will become more powerful than you can imagine....
With the coming recession, I can see quite a few companies deciding to cut their costs and switch to OpenOffice.
Switching corporate standards causes temporary increase in costs due to retraining and document conversion. Such a move may be fine in good times, but it is counter intuitive during recession.
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Ok, so I know you were going for sarcasm + troll, but its actually pretty true, because those within the "cult" know more about how its doing than those who are ignorant to it.
Those outside of the "cult", in Sept '09 or something will go "wait, Linux has 10% market share now? whats Linux?"
Granted, im sitting here typing this from XP (with Slackware as part of a tri-boot), and I really have no idea what market share it currently has, but I could easily see a 300% increase (on the Desktop) of whatever it is currently by year end.
I don't think it will really be the "Year of Linux On The Desktop" etc, but I bet it becomes pretty commonplace. (outside of geekdom)
The one thing these articles miss out is the massive costs involved in switching over and training staff.
The "Massive Cost" of buying a new system vs. squeezing more out of an existing one by installing Linux?
What about the training costs - I have news for you when revenue is headed down separate training is a LUXURY and one of the first things against the wall. You can't figure out how to work Open Office vs. Word within a day or two? Then how valuable are you really? Same with server operating systems, if you are an SA now you had best be flexible and able to train yourself in short order.
The ability to save money on recurring costs like licenses or powering too many servers is a powerful force that will ratchet Linux/BSD into many systems this year.
"There is more worth loving than we have strength to love." - Brian Jay Stanley
We need to lower taxes on goods for a year instead of a big stimulus package.
Having a tax holiday for new cars would help the economy. Also luxury goods taxes must be reduced and rich must be encouraged to buy since they are a big % of consumer confidence numbers.
Just a thought.
Lets do something instead of relying on government to dig us out of this hole.
Go buy something!
Didn't the founder of VA Linux give this same argument in the documentary "Revolution OS" all those many years ago?
The game.
We have a pair of products that are customized tweaks of an opensource ERP/POS combo customized for a particular industry. We've snared two customers away from using Netsuite for their ERP needs and being opensource was a huge hurdle to initially overcome. It takes time for people to understand the concept that they are paying us to come in, install the system, tweak/customize the system for their needs, provide training, and after sale support. The way it works with the POS software is an initial one time fee to do the customization then we provide them with a .iso that is tweaked version of OpenSuSE that is designed to boot and load only the POS software. After that we don't care if they install on one terminal or a million. (Granted we do charge a yearly fee per terminal for backup and support services). Very few other POS systems can offer that.
One of the biggest aces in the hole was PostgreSQL. The cost for us to come in, set up and install everything was cheaper than some other well known DB vendor's cost of database software alone.
Frankly the hardest thing for them to understand was the lack of vender lock-in. If they want, they can hire their own internal IT people to maintain or improve the system or another firm later on. So no matter what happens to us, they will be able to grow and expand the software with or without us.
We deploy on OpenSuSE & SLES by default. No specific reason other than a few months ago during development, SuSE happened to be the first distro where everything worked out of the box.
"The problem with socialism is eventually you run out of other people's money" - Thatcher.
I don't think it will really be the "Year of Linux On The Desktop" etc, but I bet it becomes pretty commonplace. (outside of geekdom)
A friend who needs help burning a CD just told me she's ordered a netbook with Linux because she's read that it's better than netbooks with Windows. I doubt she'd heard of Linux a month ago, but by the end of the year a lot more people will have heard of Linux, even if they don't yet use it.
In a recession, managers will be even more eager to have nothing to be blameable over. Remember, underlings get sacked first. If they go with Microsoft, the managers will feel reasonably safe, even if it drives the companies under. They will be paid the longest and will be the most likely to be re-hired quickly. Going with Open Source will be seen as taking a risk, something that in risk-averse times will not be looked on favourably even if it DID save the company's bacon.
I see the recession as a time when views will become far more entrenched in existing companies. Start-ups may be willing to go with OSS, as they need to cut costs to a minimum and they don't have shareholders to placate, but expect extreme conservatism to reign supreme. At least for the first half of the recession. After that, some of the brain-dead companies will also be financially dead, and more dynamic companies may well be profiting from their early risks. But that's a year away at best. 2009 will not be a good year for OSS in business, though 2010 might well be.
It's a small world and it smells funny; I'd buy another if it wasn't for the money; Take back what I paid (SoM)
Sure, there's no cost to download the software. What about the cost to train people how to use it (both in training sessions and in hours of productivity lost by learning it), the cost to hire someone who knows how to administer it, the cost to hire someone who knows how to fix it if it breaks, etc? Yeah, surely the solution to all problems is to switch to a brand new OS / office suite / etc that most people in the company don't know how to use. Let me tell you what is more likely to happen: Some businesses will try FOSS, most that already have Windows/Office will realize there is no pressing need to upgrade their OS / office suite / whatever and stick with their current version.
If you're not convinced, think of the following. A Windows or Office license is maybe 100-200 dollars. Now if you think about the salaries of people who work on a computer for their day job, at many companies they could easily be costing $50-$100 per hour, especially if you include benefits. Do you think that an average person will spend less than 1-4 hours in total learning how to use something like Linux? (Including looking up how to do things once in a while, etc.) I've surely spent more than that looking up how to do random things in Microsoft Office, and I spend way more than that troubleshooting things every time I upgrade Ubuntu. For most companies it's just well worth the $200 to install an OS and productivity suite that everyone already knows how to use.
In any event, *nix admins have less chance to steal secrets than their Windows counterparts.
Do you mean in general, or just at the workplaces you describe?
Nobody wants to admit the truth.
Anybody want my mod points?
Sure, more companies may be looking for ways to avoid licensing fees, but does that translate into more contributions to FOSS projects? Don't get me wrong, a larger user base is a good thing, but more companies riding the coattails of the open source community won't lead to a golden age of open source. When organizations use their development resources to contribute to projects rather than develop internal applications or hire a commercial vendor's professional services "free software idealism" is realized.
that stated the opposite. I forget if /. picked it up but said the obvious who will pay developers for a project they cannot sell. Likely the first people to go or be reassigned if the budget gets thin. I saw it on yahoo news so could have been CNET or Infoworld? Too lazy to search for it.
/. feels the same (minus the owners of software companies and sales people) are we communists? HA
Soooo Laaazy DOH!
That is my dream job though, get paid to just work on any number of open source projects. Probably everyone on
Install compatibility mode on Vista, and they ARE fully compatible.
Yes, you are right. The Vista CD fits perfectly on my toaster. Too bad it won't last long.
I think nobody really knows what's the real market share of Linux.
On the desktop:
The number of downloaded cd images of each distro it's no viable.
The number of registered users is not a good sample.
Browser referrals can be cheated (good thing that's not needed anymore) and people doesn't navigate all in the same place (Hum.. maybe google was able to do this).
There is people with Linux cooked at home (small distros, LFS..).
There is a lot of people dual booting with Windows and a lot of people running it on a VM.
There is also Linux on embedded devices. Our wifi router, divx/dvd player, might have Linux and most of us don't even know.
Linux on servers.. Even on rockets going to moon.
How are we going to count all of that?
This entirely ignores the question of how the FOSS people are paying their expenses. Many are no doubt coding on the company's dime, often with only tacit (not official) approval. Wanna bet how many of them get canned in the coming year? Or how many suddenly don't have as much 'free' time to devote to such endeavors?
Some of the classic arguments against FOSS are:
1. It's not free. You still have to train people and migrate data.
Response: But you don't have to pay for the upgrade, more licenses and still have the data migration issue.
2. There is no technical support.
Response: Actually the technical support is far better. Multiple forums exist for most FOSS applications. They usually have the answers too. Have you ever tried to get and answer to a problem with Notes, Tivoli?
3. Not as feature rich.
Response: Do you actually use those weirdo features in MS word? Have you used Firefox lately? Linux almost installs on everything including my fridge! Does Windows?
4. FOSS applications are not as stable.
Response: Certainly some FOSS apps pretty much crash 3 seconds after they launch. However the majority of FOSS applications that we use every day are rock solid. For example the most widely used web server is apache and it's variants.
5. FOSS applications are insecure.
Response: IE is the most hacked browser out there. Enough said.
6. The unspoken argument. Who do I sue when the applications wrecks my business?
Response: To be honest if your business is wrecked by software then you are probably incompetent. Yah there is always a risk. That's what insurance is for. But it doesn't really matter what is in the contract. If your business goes under as a result of IT systems. Well it's under, a law suite won't fix it.
7. If I contribute to FOSS then I will ultimately loose! As my competition gets a free ride.
Response: If you're an IT shop developing the next wonder product this may actually be the case. However if you are an IT shop and you want to off load some of the development of the required peripheral software that enables your wonder product it makes sense to support FOSS. If your Bob's Music and Flower emporium and you have a wizz-kid in the back that is contributing both to the company and the FOSS. The long term benefits are greater. As that software this kid made is now being supported and developed by many many people that you could never have a hope of paying for.
Comment:
I know I've locked the barn door and soaked the building in gas. Flame away if you wish.
Here is how I see it :
Those companies are full of windows-users, and installing Linux on their computers at work will NOT make them become linux-users.
Of course, Linux is 'free', of course, it's more flexible, powerful, etc
Of course, people knowing about Linux will probably be more effective in any ways.
However, I must insist : it costs MONEY to get someone using Linux at work, as a tool. Are you people forgeting that those employees only used windows for their entire lives ?? It's not something that can be learned in two hours (not at work, not as an essential tool.)
Please, stop behaving like kids, asking every two months if the time when windows gets down has come or not.
2009 is NOT going to be Linux on anything year. Just like 2008 wasn't and 2007 wasn't.
2009 is going to be another year of increasing overal market share of Linux, like other years. There will be no revolution.
Please, understand that the kind of adoption of Linux you are hoping for will not be a "one-year" revolution. Maybe much people will begin using Linux on their desktop, and it's good. But before Linux becomes proeminent or even common in large companies Linux has to stop being "that cool system that everybody heard about but nobody in the company really masters". If there is recession, those moving-to-linux costs will be too important.
The only way Linux gets enough market share in large companies is that those people working with computers, already made contact with Linux at HOME, and thus don't need any formation.
Just wait.. wait for Linux to be known, used and mastered by the lambda user, and then our society will have the choice to move to Linux without prohibitive costs.
Segmentation Fault in "Life, Universe and Everything" at line 42. Don't Panic.
Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon's_razor
Most human behaviour can be explained in terms of identity.
First I would like to state I am not an expert at Linux, nor have I even had the chance to use it so my opinions are completely based upon the things I've read at Slashdot and this article. Now that I got that out of the way I would like to point out the + and the - from my view. -:The article argues that Linux offers more in versatility. To me that translates into more places for problems that IT (who has probably used Linux a bit more than I have but still is unused to it)has to deal with. -: Everyone upstairs will not have the same patience as they would not during a recession. But perhaps this is a mixed curse per say, because people change more often under pressure. +: Exponential rate. The companies that switch will lure even more to switch. The recession only emphasizes that effect. +: Cheaper than other alternatives and their upgrades (windows).
Well, it does go up every year. Doesn't it?
We're quite happy. We used to use all traditional tools. Now we're using Eclipse, Ubuntu, Open Office, Firefox, Evolution and all new applications being created are created as web applications. We're very happy with this. All used tools being used are free open source or our own products. We work in software development sector. We havent been missing outlook or sharepoint too much at all.
In the early 90s, there was a recession and linux was created about the same time. Around the turn of the century there was the dot-com bust, and at that time we got bittorrent. These are both pretty revolutionary bits of software. So yes, I'm quite keen to see what free software innovation that this recession fosters :)
For you and me, we're worried about whether about we will be swept in our out with the change but let's step back for a moment and examine the greater forces.
If you are centered on yourself, have skills to offer, and are poised to leap on opportunities, you'll do fine.
If you're a clinical MCSE, in private industry, you're hosed. In government service you should be fine.
If you're making $100k/yr or more, now is the best time to remodel your kitchen, reroof your house or buy the sweet new Washer/Dryer -- you have no idea how sweet these things are until you try them. One does 20 towels at once. A normal dryer does four. You'll find contractors ready and eager to refit your house at far less than the prices they were asking even last year. Seize the day.
Help stamp out iliturcy.
I first read the title as "Regression vs. GNU"... that didn't make sense at all.
One of the biggest challenges to getting technically illiterate people using Linux is installation. Sure, most newbies could manage a Ubuntu install, but can auntie?
Even if she could, how/why would you try to convince her to change from whats installed to Linux so she can continue using the same webmail/whatever websites?
You can't legislate goodness. Let each to his own destiny, by will of his freely made choices.
And after I've installed cron, a real shell and a ssh daemon it's mainly usable.
I appreciate RDP but it's not the best solution for everything and I still find it surprising (frustrating) to have to cycle the OS after every update.
But I could care less what you use to get your job done. If it works for you, great.
Quack, quack.
Most of those people who couldn't install ubuntu, couldn't install windows either (which is actually more difficult to install than ubuntu)... They will get computer repair shops to perform the install for them etc, or remain with the default install the machine came with.
So what's really needed, are more machines with linux preinstalled, priced considerably lower than windows ones...
And pc repair shops that know about linux and try to push it to their customers.... But this is unlikely to happen, because these shops make their money repairing broken windows installs, and linux would significantly decrease their revenue stream.
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But out of all the Average Joes who will be changing their computers in the few next years, how many of them will just use Word to type out a quick document ? And how many of them have complex non-portable macros and pipelines ?
These are an interesting market for Microsoft as they don't volume-license their software.
With the bad economic environment a few might post-pone their system upgrade.
Of those buying new hardware and software, most won't like the prices of buying new licenses.
Some of them will probably pirate the software.
Others will probably give a try to the open-source world.
It would be interesting to see what the effect of all campaign against piracy will be. Will most Average Joes still pirate their office suites, or will more of them hesitate and try to find other alternatives ?
"Sufficiently advanced satire is indistinguishable from reality." - [Tips: 1DrYakQDKCQ6y52z6QbnkxHXAocMZJE61o ]
IMHO, FOSS just needs a lot more guidance, direction, focus, leadership. Experimentation and ad hoc development are good, but the net output is still subpar. We could have fewer, but much better apps with all the manpower spent on FOSS.
"I love my job, but I hate talking to people like you" (Freddie Mercury)
Microsoft Corporation is headed for swingeing layoffs in mid-January after the failure of its stock buyback program, and has called for a government bailout in the face of the credit crunch.
"Vastly popular operating systems like Vista just aren't selling," said marketing marketer emeritus Bill Gates, "and it's all because people aren't confident to spend their money. In fact, they didn't start buying it in 2007 because they were expecting this even then. A subsidy to buy good, honest American computer operating systems is essential to the health of the economy, or my part of it."
Should the Big One of American virtual office supplies fail, economists predict that it could free up millions of dollars in business spending and provide a devastating boost to an economy reeling from the impact of the credit crunch.
Hiring in most Microsoft divisions has frozen in the last six months and 30GB Zunes are already on suicide watch. "The workload's impossible to keep up with," said blog technical evangelist Gary M. Stewart. "I've even been answering Slashdot comments on Boycott Novell. It's impossible to keep track of! Anyway, you're just another Twitter sockpuppet. Or Mini-Microsoft. Admit it."
Additional bailouts have been hooked on the bill as riders for HD-DVD, eight-track cartridges, 78rpm gramophones and Babbage analytical engine gear manufacturers.
Senators have stated they will only bail the company out with a change in top management. "What the shit," said Linus Torvalds as his draft notice arrived.
http://rocknerd.co.uk
Never did see the use of drawing pretty, sorry, 'purdy pitchurs' on a cathode ray tube.
And who needs dem dere rodents?
We could have REALLY thin clients then.
24x80 ought to be enough for anybody.
MSBPodcast.com The opinions expressed here are my own. If you don't like 'em... Think up your own stuff.
but plan on charging out the nose for your tailoring skills.
MSBPodcast.com The opinions expressed here are my own. If you don't like 'em... Think up your own stuff.
As someone who occasionally gets called to rid my neighbors' computers of malware, I've come to realize just how profitable a computer repair business could be. If I wasn't around, they'd be taking their PCs to Geek Squad and paying $100 to have their computer formatted, or just buying a new computer altogether.
Computers that work as intended and don't get infected make for a poor computer-repair business.
It's not just GNU, it's all of FOSS. Only software that comes from the GNU project should be called "GNU".
Don't blame me, I didn't vote for either of them!
And pc repair shops that know about linux and try to push it to their customers.... But this is unlikely to happen, because these shops make their money repairing broken windows installs, and linux would significantly decrease their revenue stream.
Not me. I make my about half my money converted b0rk3n Windows boxes to Ubuntu. I work with home users pretty much exclusively, and between "XP keeps getting pwnt" and "Vista is slow and ugly" I've been doing better and better.
Does it pinch my revenue stream? No, and I'll tell you why. First, I can charge more to convert a box than I can to fix a Windows install, both because it's typically more hours (converting files, custom setups, etc.) and because I'm actually adding value rather than simply fixing a problem. And second, word of mouth has been phenomenal, every customer feeds me one more.
What it does mean is that I have to have fairly high customer turnover, because once the job is done, it's pretty rare for the client to have another major problem. I don't have a problem with that, because god knows we're not running out of broken Windows boxes anytime soon.
Hey, I finally got my first freak! Took you long enough!
No-one ever gets training on new versions of Office.
Perhaps I should have been more detailed instead of just saying "training costs". It makes no difference whether the training comes from the IT department, or outside, or whether user have to train themselves. These are all training costs.
I would like evidence that such training is widespread and expected.
Expected? Heh. Perhaps when you work for a union shop. In most companies you are simply expected to know how to use the program. Again, how you get retrained, doesn't matter. It is still a training cost. In a way, lost productivity is a "training-neglect" cost.
In addition, it reads and writes the 97-2003 .DOC format just fine.
And that tells me you have never used Word for anything more than simple notes. You probably haven't used PowerPoint at all. I use both, extensively. Please don't tell me not to use Word to produce complex, multi-chapter documents. It's not my decision. The last time I attempted to open one of those documents in OpenOffice I laughed so hard, it cured me of any illusions.
Most companies cannot afford to start everything anew. Continuity is the key. There are repositories of thousands of documents that serve as a base to build more and more documents and presentations in the future. If you think someone will struggle for weeks or months converting all of that just to save a few hundred dollars in software costs, then I am sorry, but you have no idea what you're talking about.
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What you're seeming to neglect, in the desperate hope that OSS software can now compete on cost, is that the cost of desktop software licenses easily pales compared to all the other costs involved in hiring and retaining staff; salary being the biggest component.
If an accountant is looking for fat to trim, software isn't going to be it. That runs the risk of incurring large costs in either finding people with skills in those unfamiliar software apps in their CV or retraining people to use them. Risk is the last thing these people will be thinking of. It's conservative choice time. Nope, it's layoffs.
Very small business and the home market are where people will start looking at cutting back on software costs. Unfortunately, that same thing will also bite everyone who supplies software and services to these markets in their day jobs which pay the rent so they can code OSS in their spare time. There are no silver linings in the oncoming recession.
If OSS is going to compete, it has to be on quality. In many areas it already does. In many, it doesn't. Publicise the former, encourage the latter to improve and contribute if you're able.
Most companies will simply use software, and have absolutely no intention of ever distributing it...
The GPL does not apply unless you are distributing software. It has no restrictions on how you can use or modify the software internally. Proprietary software on the other hand does have usage restrictions as well as distribution restrictions which are often far stricter than the GPL.
The GPL may not give you as much freedom as say BSD, but it still gives you a lot more than proprietary software does, and it gives you all the freedom (unlimited use) that 99% of companies care about.
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Depends why you program...
Some people do it for fun, some people to write programs for their own use, others do it as part of another job (eg system management)... All of these people stand to benefit from open source.
Only those who write software for sale stand to loose, and they are a small percentage of the overall.
Most developers are employed by companies who's primary business is not selling software, they need some custom apps for their own specialized use and will employ programmers to write them. Proprietary vendors won't supply the software they need because the niche is too small, open source won't supply for the same reason.
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Could this be an example of the broken window fallacy?
...
Ok, you can mod me into oblivion now
It is a miracle that curiosity survives formal education. - Einstein
Like pro sports and communism, positive change only happens after the people at the top changes first. Average software use is 1 or 2 versions behind, so most software a company relies on for daily production business still run perfectly on XP and average users do not want change. IT policies and governance are not decided by the cost of software and equipment. If it was that simple FOSS would've dominated already. Top execs look at what system their peers and industry run and conform to the average standard. All the money spent on more recent Windows Server and MS SQL upgrades in the last couple of years means most Windows shops will just bear down and keep the same HW/SW running for the next couple of years. The most promising avenue for Linux growth is where IT shops look years down the road and decided the ever growing TCO for running your own systems is simply unsustainable, and opt for EC2 or similar future solutions. Linux and FOSS should have formed the foundation of 90% of cloud computing for the next decade. Imagine where Open Office could have been if Sun+IBM had invested in building it as online app instead of trying to (still) catch up to MS Office. Now MS has woken up and started to focus away from the desktop, OOo and the like are too late, when it could have been years ahead of the game. I hate to say it, but seems the only company with FOSS savvy that knows how to target where users will be tomorrow instead of where we've already been is Google.