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Outliers, The Story Of Success

TechForensics writes "Outliers, by Malcolm Gladwell, is subtitled "the story of success." It is a book that purports to explain why some people succeed far more than others. It suggests that a success like Bill Gates is more attributable to external factors than anything within the man. Even his birth date turns out to play a role of profound importance in the success of Bill Gates and Microsoft Corporation." Look below for the rest of Leon's review. Outliers author Malcolm Gladwell pages 301 publisher Little, Brown and Co. rating Excellent. reviewer Leon Malinofsky ISBN 978-0-316-03669-6 summary Success comes from external factors or unsuspected internal ones.

Outliers also tries to answer such diverse questions as what Gates has in common with the Beatles; why Asians have superior success at math; and the reason the world's smartest man is one of the least accomplished. All of these things are viewed in terms of generation, family, culture, and class. Outliers — those persons of exceptional accomplishment — typically have lives that proceed from particular patterns.

Chapter 1 is an examination of similar towns in Italy with vastly disparate life expectancies and no apparent reason. Though the towns were only miles apart, the life expectancy in Roseto was surprisingly longer-- longer, in fact, than any neighboring town in the region, making Roseto an outlier. The eventual explanation, namely, the prevalence of multigenerational families under a single roof with the attendant reduced stress of lifestyle, while not one of the book's more shocking revelations, nevertheless serves as an example of an outlier and the sometimes hidden causes of their status.

Chapter 2 seeks to answer the curious question why athletes on elite Canadian teams were all born in the same few months of their birth year. In a system in which achievement is based on individual merit, one would assume the hardest work would translate to the best achievement. The fact this criterion on was wholly overmastered by timing of birth was studied and showed that hidden advantage, namely being older and stronger than persons born later in the year of eligibility brought continuous, cascading, even snowballing advantage, which ultimately produced Canada's most elite players. If everyone born, in, say, 1981 was eligible to begin play only in a single year, then naturally the older boys, being larger and better coordinated, would dominate. Hockey player selection in Canada is shown to be a self-fulfilling prophecy, namely a situation where a false definition in the beginning invokes a new behavior which makes the original false conception come true.

Chapter 3 is far and away the most interesting in the book. It sets forth the so-called 10,000 hour rule, and in its course, shows why Bill Gates and the Beatles succeeded for essentially the same reason. Gladwell begins by noting that musical geniuses such as Mozart, and chess grandmasters, both achieved their status after about 10 years. 10 years is roughly how long it takes to put in 10,000 hours of hard practice. 10,000 hours is the magic number of greatness. Both Bill Joy at the University of Michigan and Bill Gates at Seattle's famous Lakeside school, two schools with some of the first computer terminals, had access to unlimited time-sharing computer time at essentially the beginning of the modern industry and before anyone else. Because both were absorbed and drawn into programming, spending countless hours in fascinated self-study, both achieved 10,000 hours of programming experience before hitting their level. Because hitting that level took place at exactly the time need for that level of computer expertise manifested in society, ability came together with need and unique uber programmers were born. The Beatles played seven days a week on extended stints in Hamburg Germany and estimated by the time they started their phenomenal climb to greatness in England that they had played for 10,000 hours. Subsequent studies of musicians in general in music school showed that elite, mid-level, and low-level musicians hewed very closely to the "genius is a function of hours put in and not personal gifts" school of thought: members of each group had similar amounts of total lifetime practice. This book makes a fascinating case that genius is a function of time and not giftedness, validating both Edison's famous saw about 98% perspiration and Feynman's claim that there is no such thing as intelligence, only interest.

The next chapter tells the tale of Bill Langen, whose IQ is one of the highest in recorded history. However, he was a spectacular failure in his personal life. Prof. Oppenheimer, on the other hand ascended to work on the Manhattan Project though in graduate school he had tried to poison his adviser. The difference is shown to result from an astonishing lack of charisma and a sense of what others are thinking in Langen, and an extreme personability in Oppenheimer, which is said to show that success is not a function of hard work or even genius but more of likability and the ability to empathize.

Chapter 5 tells the tale of attorney Joseph Flom, of Skadden Arps Slate Meagher and Flom. According to Gladwell, Flom did not succeed through hustle and ability but rather by virtue of his origins. Intelligence, personality and ambition were not enough, but had to be coupled with origins in a Jewish culture in which hard work and ingenuity were encouraged, and in fact a necessary part of life. This, along with having to scrabble in a firm cobbled together out of necessity because Jews were not hired by white-shoe law firms, gave the partners and unusual and timely expertise: Flom's firm decided it had to take hostile takeover cases when no one else would, and that turned Flom and his partners into experts in a kind of legal practice just beginning to boom when they hit their stride.

Chapter 6 traces the influence on a person's culture of origin and how it marks him more in the present day then may be generally appreciated. Psychological experiments proved that a so-called culture of honor, such as that found in the South, where people of necessity had nothing but their reputations, caused the products of such a culture to be much more aggressive in defending themselves, their reputations and honor.

Chapter 7 traces the influence of Korean culture and deference to superiors as significant facts in a high number of plane crashes in the national airlines. It was only when cultural phenomena such as the inability to contradict a superior were corrected by cultural retraining that Korean Air Lines began to achieve the same safety levels of the airlines of other countries. This chapter is interesting for its treatment of flight KAL 007 alone.

Chapter 8 will have strong interest for most Slashdot readers. There is an Asian saying that no one who can rise before dawn 360 days a year can fail to make his family rich. The hard, intricate work of operating a successful rice paddy, equal in complexity to an organic chemical synthesis almost, is shown to have produced an ability for precision and complexity which outstrips growers of other crops. The fact that Asian languages in many cases use shorter and more logical words for numbers confers a strong early advantage which, like the age advantage in the hockey player example, snowball significantly over time. Gladwell argues Asians are not innately more able at math, but culturally more amenable to it based on the felicity of a language which is to our language as the metric system of weights and measures is to the English.

The final chapters of the book show that inner-city kids placed in intensive study schools achieve as much as kids from rich suburbs. The reason is found to be cultural: the long hours in those schools take up evening hours which would be spent at home and also take up summer hours, which in the special schools are full of math instead of the less than well-directed extracurricular pursuits typically found in the lower-income family home.

On the whole this book is going to provoke some ire and certainly some head scratching. It is bound to bear out in the minds of many Prof. Richard Feynman's assertion, which we may modify to say that giftedness and IQ are not inherent but conferred by accidents or benefits of culture, or at least via mechanisms that are not obvious. Even if such a conclusion sounds laughable to you, this book may change your thinking.

You can purchase Outliers from amazon.com. Slashdot welcomes readers' book reviews -- to see your own review here, read the book review guidelines, then visit the submission page.

357 comments

  1. Interesting by GMonkeyLouie · · Score: 3, Informative

    Looks like a very interesting book, very much in the flavor of Freakonomics, in that it uses each chapter to explore a completely different phenomenon and simply orbits around a nebulous main argument.

    I very much like that approach because it leaves me, as a reader, feeling like I've taken an adventure and seen a lot in the course of a book; it appeals to casual readers who like their nonfiction to be as exciting and as unpredictable as their fiction.

    I expect to pick it up from the library as soon as I can. Thanks for your review!

    1. Re:Interesting by Ash+Vince · · Score: 2, Informative

      I would recommend you have a read of this guys previous book "Blink" if you have not read it before. It also bears a similar style and takes you on a bit of an adventure.

      I read Blink and Freakonomics back to back and thought they complimented each other quite well even thought they were by different authors on different subjects.

      Blink is largely about how snap judgements are not necessarily bad and is suggesting that you can make them better with practice. He suggests a number of examples in order to formulate tools that will improve your own quick decision making ability so when there really is not time to rationalise a problem fully you can still make a best guess.

      True some of the suggestions are obvious but the examples made it worth a read.

      --
      I dont read /. to RTFA, I read /. to offend people in ignorance.
    2. Re:Interesting by Bill,+Shooter+of+Bul · · Score: 1

      Well, First things first. Freakanomics copied Gladwell's style not visa versa. Gladwell pretty much started the genre back in 2002 with the tipping point.

      Freakanomics came much later debuting in 2005.

      --
      Well.. maybe. Or Maybe not. But Definitely not sort of.
    3. Re:Interesting by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Super old news is old. This has been out so long even Anonymous Cowards like me have read it.

    4. Re:Interesting by tnadys · · Score: 2, Informative

      I Liked the book until I actually checked the distribution of birth months of NHL players (available on some teams web sites) including the Canadian Team he refers too (a different season). There were about the same number of players born in the first half and second half of the year. There were even a few born in December. His Arguments all made perfect sense but I couldn't find any evidence that it was actually true. I Stopped reading the book after that. It started to look like he found facts that supported his premise, rather than actually researching the subject. I Liked "The Tipping point" and "Blink" but I don't trust the evidence presented in those books now.

  2. Rice paddy paradox by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    If growing rice leads to some sort of cultural intelligence, why is it that West Africans, who have been growing rice over thousands of years, don't match the intelligence of rui Asians?

    1. Re:Rice paddy paradox by EastCoastSurfer · · Score: 1

      How do you know that the west africans do not match the intelligence of Asians? You also cannot forget religion. Many technological advances have been delayed or destroyed because of some cultures religious beliefs.

    2. Re:Rice paddy paradox by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      My father majored in anthropology in college, and what he would say is that nutrition and cooking play(ed) a huge part in human cognitive development. Specifically, having an abundant source of nutrients, and then knowing how to cook them properly. I inherently understood the bit about abundance of resources, but once I asked him for an explanation about why cooking played such an important role. He told me that humans started cooking their food for two major reasons: 1st reason is that it kills harmful germs, 2nd reason is that aids the digestive process allowing the consumer to utilize more of the consumed nutrients. Having stated that, I should also state that there are large differences in the two societies.

      I read somewhere that there was a comparative study done on Black Americans and Black Africans that tried to show that Black Africans were actually smarter than their American counterparts, but that the Black Americans were significantly stronger than their African counterparts. The study postulated that this was due to the forced selective breeding at the hands of American slave owners, such that the bigger, stronger, dumber slaves were bred, and the smaller, weaker, smarter slaves were executed. Over several generations it lead to perceivable difference between the Black Americans and Black Africans.

      Humans have, over several thousand years, dealt with, food resources, technological, philosophical, religious, and social advances. Unless you put forth the effort to study your scenario, it could really be anything. Knowing this, I could speculate that West African rice's nutritional values are significantly less than Asian rice's. Perhaps Asians have developed superior cooking techniques.

      HINT: I'm leaning toward Asian's superior cooking techniques!

    3. Re:Rice paddy paradox by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You answered your own question, only unintelligent people who can't think for themselves believe in religion because it gives them their warm fuzzies

    4. Re:Rice paddy paradox by FishWithAHammer · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Bullshit. And that's coming from an atheist.

      You'd better be ready to tell me how and why Kenneth Miller, just to name one, is "incapable of thinking for himself" due to his religions belief.

      --
      "You can either have software quality or you can have pointer arithmetic, but you cannot have both at the same time."
    5. Re:Rice paddy paradox by digitig · · Score: 1

      Thing is, there's religion in Africa and there's religion in Asia, so you have to do a lot more work to show that religion comes into it.

      A far more credible explanation is geographic. Early technologies were primarily plant and animal based. Those technologies could spread more readily east-west, where climate stays more-or-less constant, than north-south, where climate changes rapidly. That meant that technologies could spread rapidly across the Eurasian land mass, but Africa and India remained relatively isolated, giving those in the northern temperate zone an advantage. Nothing to do with religion, nothing to do with intelligence, just being in the right place (a big east-west land mass) at the right time (as early technologies were emerging).

      --
      Quidnam Latine loqui modo coepi?
    6. Re:Rice paddy paradox by spacey · · Score: 1

      Wow, some people don't have any sense of history. Hello? decimation (or more) of the population of west africa due to slavery and natural resource exploitation over the last 5 centuries ring any bells?

      -Peter

      --
      == Just my opinion(s)
    7. Re:Rice paddy paradox by Yuuki+Dasu · · Score: 1

      If growing rice leads to some sort of cultural intelligence, why is it that West Africans, who have been growing rice over thousands of years, don't match the intelligence of rui Asians?

      As others have said, Africa had a rich, strong culture for an incredibly long time, and its current state has a lot to do with the effects of European exploitation and colonialism. Others have also suggested that they may be just as intelligent, but that other factors (such as government and infrastructure) have so far kept them from reaching the same level of notoriety so far. FWIW, I've certainly known some very intelligent Africans working and studying abroad.

      To get back on topic, though, I was wondering; does West Africa use similar methods of rice cultivation to Southeast Asia? The particularities of wet-paddy agriculture mean a world of difference.

    8. Re:Rice paddy paradox by tabrnaker · · Score: 1
      Or, we're intelligent people that can think for ourselves. That means reading scriptures first hand and not following the religious interpretations.

      The road is long and winding, but science gets there eventually. I should know. I was a skeptic and followed science, and i still ended up at god. :) In fact, i'm still a skeptic. It's not like skeptics and those who know god don't intersect.

      You have to be really smart though. Haha, i'm just like in the book. The only thing my intelligence got me was a fixed body and happiness. I guess those looking for money should look elsewhere.

    9. Re:Rice paddy paradox by thebigbadme · · Score: 1

      there's more to it than that... see Africa, as a land mass, is more vertical, making it more difficult to spread crops/livestock from one area to another. Euro-Asia are oriented horizontally... causing the same tasks to be much more easy to accomplish....

      I'm summarizing part of Guns, Germs, and Steel - by Jared Diamond

      a good read, IMO (incidentally, I've only ever seen it with a Bill Gates praise quote on the back; looks like one can't travel far these days without him)

      --
      "It's the Law of the Universe, and I'm the sheriff." Slash-cott 2/10-2/17
  3. There will always be some "lucky" people by spineboy · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Reminds me of stock market games people play. Someone usually winds up increasing their money by a ridiculous factor. The winner just happened to guess a good set of buys/moves. Another analogy is the million monkeys typing - pure chance will eventually produce a winner.
    I don't believe in luck - but in chance yes. Successful people usually make their own "luck" by doing things to better their odds. Bill Gates might be an example of both.

    --
    ..........FULL STOP.
    1. Re:There will always be some "lucky" people by fahrbot-bot · · Score: 3, Funny

      Another analogy is the million monkeys typing - pure chance will eventually produce a winner.

      Hmm... Can monkeys get /. accounts? :-)

      --
      It must have been something you assimilated. . . .
    2. Re:There will always be some "lucky" people by ejsing · · Score: 1

      Successful people usually make their own "luck" by doing things to better their odds. Bill Gates might be an example of both.

      One of the major point in Outliers is actually that you are not in control of your own luck, but rather that geniuses are born from a series of random events (of which you have no influence) falling out their way.

      Taking Bill Gates as an example, the author argues that had he not had the great fortune of having early access to computers at just the right time he might never had become what he is today. This access was provided through a series of fortunate events, basically allowing Bill Gates unlimited access to expensive computer time back in the 70's (I might be off a bit, I'm trying to recall the details from memory), all of which are described in the book.

    3. Re:There will always be some "lucky" people by drewzhrodague · · Score: 3, Funny

      Hmm... Can monkeys get /. accounts? :-)

      Score: 0 Redundant

      --
      Zhrodague.net - I do projects and stuff too.
    4. Re:There will always be some "lucky" people by Maximum+Prophet · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Dans les champs de l'observation le hasard ne favorise que les esprits préparés. - Louis Pasteur

      In the fields of observation chance favors only the prepared mind.

      Bad luck will strike you down no matter how talented you are, but good luck only works if you are smart enough to recognize and capitalize on it.

      --
      All ideas^H^H^H^H^Hprocesses in this post are Patent Pending. (as well as the process of patenting all postings)
    5. Re:There will always be some "lucky" people by fava · · Score: 4, Funny

      Hmm... Can monkeys get /. accounts? :-)

      You don't read much at -1 do you?

    6. Re:There will always be some "lucky" people by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One of the major point in Outliers is actually that you are not in control of your own luck...

      It's not luck if you can control it, pretty much by definition.

    7. Re:There will always be some "lucky" people by StikyPad · · Score: 1

      If enough of them try long enough, then eventually..

    8. Re:There will always be some "lucky" people by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      djg dh e ryt a w q nvbhe t at $mcjs dhf g th qp vn d gf te j f 6 ^7 84((:k @##~s fhjt 5

      (Translation: We post as Anonymous Coward you insensitive Clod!)

      (If any meaning has been Lost, that is just a plug for Bill Murray's best film)

    9. Re:There will always be some "lucky" people by neo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "Bad luck" is when a situation comes upon you that you are not prepared for and in some way is "bad". If you had been prepared for the situation then you would have avoided it. Hence the more prepared you are, the less likely you are to have "bad luck."

    10. Re:There will always be some "lucky" people by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Re stock market games: especially if you're Hillary Clinton!

    11. Re:There will always be some "lucky" people by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      also:

      "Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity."
      - Seneca

    12. Re:There will always be some "lucky" people by Ihlosi · · Score: 1
      Bad luck will strike you down no matter how talented you are, but good luck only works if you are smart enough to recognize and capitalize on it.

      success = talent && !bad_luck;

      ?

    13. Re:There will always be some "lucky" people by thebigbadme · · Score: 1

      but it was Bill's tenacity... I don't recall ever hearing of a gun being held to his head while using the mainframe... ;)
      thought that might explain somethings if it were true.... just kidding

      but then again, his tenacity might in part been a product of his genetics and environment growing up... at least half of which (the environment part) coincides with the whole bit about there being a computer for him to access... I mean, the sort of people who raise kids like B.G. also, apparently, are the sort of people who do said raising in the place where he was raised... my head is going to explode

      --
      "It's the Law of the Universe, and I'm the sheriff." Slash-cott 2/10-2/17
  4. 10000 hours by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I've spent 10000 hours in slashdot comments and gained nothing...

  5. Yup.. just like stock trading by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Some people do everything right, research, come to correct conclusions, and yet random events destroy them.

    Other people make a series of long odds, even terrible choices and yet do great because of random events.

    Given classic random theory, given a series of 50/50 type decisions, out of 32 people, one person will be completely screwed and one person will win every time. For larger data sets, the lucky runs are only longer.

    I'm sure Gates determination and business acumen made a difference. But winning so big had a lot to do with luck.

    --
    She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    1. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by gfxguy · · Score: 5, Insightful

      What you say is true, but it never ceases to amaze me that people who:

      - have natural talent
      - develop that talent through hard work and education
      - are tirelessly ambitious
      - and incredibly hard working

      Seem to to magically have the best "luck."

      --
      Stupid sexy Flanders.
    2. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by caffeinemessiah · · Score: 1

      Given classic random theory, given a series of 50/50 type decisions, out of 32 people, one person will be completely screwed and one person will win every time. For larger data sets, the lucky runs are only longer.

      This is absolutely meaningless, a hodgepodge of statistical fallacies and vagueness. Given a "series of 50/50 type decisions", assuming each decision is independent, then it is absolutely not necessary that "in larger data sets, the lucky runs are only longer". If each decision is a coin flip, then there is no "memory" of prior decisions, so the probability of getting a long "lucky run" is exactly the same regardless of the size of the data set. The length of a "lucky run" is independent of the size of the data set.

      In the context of Gladwell, you could say that "genius" is the independent co-incidence of (1) having innate ability and cultural preparation and (2) the right circumstances presenting themselves. One or both of those events have very low probability, so when they coincide and create a Bill Gates, we get an "outlier" relative to the life experience of the vast majority of people.

      --
      An old-timer with old-timey ideas.
    3. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Not true at all. You only notice (and catregorize as "successful") a tiny percentage of all those who did all these things, but of whom a vast majority failed regardless. You are simply ignoring them because they do not fit your theory. It takes only one unfortunate event beyond one's control, of which there is an essentially an infinite supply, to utterly destroy and erase years of hard work and many, many long-odds "victories". On the other hand a one-off fortunate random event of great magnitude is not consistent with the attribution of the reasons for "success" you present, only a long series of hard-earned ones fits the bill. Subsequently, given equal effort, far many more people will fail then will succeed. It's simple probability distribution.

      But of course this patently obvious reasoning is severely inconvenient for people who demand massive privileges and wholly insane allocation of society's resources toward themselves based upon their notion of single-handedly "raising themselves by their bootstraps" or some such nonsense, an image which is massively damaged when one starts any sort of analysis of influence external factors on their "self-made" success. Which in the end is no different really from the kings of old who believed the same based upon "divine providence" and were equally upset when someone dared to question their claim to their disproportionate privileges.

    4. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Counterexample: Ballmer.

    5. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Austerity+Empowers · · Score: 1

      Perhaps those are necessary but not sufficient.

      The real issue here is that Bill Gates got credit. How many people like you describe, work tirelessly day after day, providing society with the fruits of their labor (at a far better cost)? I know quite a few, most will never be famous.

      Maybe that's where the luck is...having been recognized from the see of intelligent, hardworking, ambitious people.

    6. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Apply your model to actors and actresses.

      There are a thousand actors equally qualified to be a tom cruise or julia roberts.

      T&C luckily got the right role, so then they had an audience who would build on that in future roles.

      You could argue that tom has destroyed his career ( with the argument with Brooke Shields mainly ) tho while julia has protected hers.

      Thousands of highly qualified people start businesses every day and fail.

      I think a better way of putting it is ...

      unless you do all the preparation work, your odds of success are 1:1,000,000 (so several hundred lucky successes a year).
      However, if you do all the preparation work, your odds of success are 1:1000 (so 999 highly prepared failures for every success).

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    7. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      No.

      You misunderstood the most basic point I'm making.

      Given a large population of potential achievers and a larger period of time (a couple of decades), you can model their decisions probablistically. I chose 50% to make it obvious, but it even applies if the odds are 99% to 1%.

      I did ignore that the winners of the first few decisions would benefit in further rounds. You can observe that in the 'winner take all" nature of our society.

      With regard to gates, there were several other potential candidates. Some of them achieved net worths in the billions.

      We see him because he's the biggest. And he was the luckiest one. Things could have gone differently.

      An easy example is that any one of several random managers at IBM could have squashed bill gates and we would have never heard of him.

      He "won" every random situation until he got big enough to make his own luck.

      And he has stunk it up for several years now- making a lot of wrong guesses and bad decisions.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    8. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I think the lesson to be learned is that you're far more likely to be successful if you work hard than if you don't. Sure, more people fail than succeed at becoming great successes, but those who are great successes got there through hard work and dedication. Whereas if you're apathetic because you figure the chances of success are slim, you're guaranteed to fail.

    9. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Khashishi · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That's because you've never heard of any of the people who
      - have natural talent
      - develop that talent through hard work and education
      - are tirelessly ambitious
      - and incredibly hard working
      who don't also have good luck.

    10. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Luck" favors the prepared mind.

      Laying most of it on external factors really misses the point. There are many opportunities in our lives, the prepared mind will see them for what they are and take advantage of them.

    11. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is another component of 'luck'. Putting yourself at the right place at the right time. THEN on top of that realizing you are there and taking control of that.

      Taking Mr Gates as an example. Dropped out of Harvard?! What sort of lunatic would do that?! One who realizes selling strips of paper with holes in it was more profitable. One who was able to objectively look at his life and take a MAJOR risk. That is not luck. Just coming in and doing your job very well is not going to produce 'luck'.

      Another case is the infamous IBM scene. What sort of dude goes into *THE* IBM and undercuts all of the competition with NOTHING to sell?! One who realizes that OS's are a dime a dozen and we can just buy one tweak it and fix it later.

      Notice in all of the cases where he came out on top he PUT himself there. Made SURE he was there. In fact many times created the opportunity in the first place. If he didnt create the opportunity he made sure either the software that his company was making was hands down the best or so cheap the shortcomings didnt matter.

      Take example of linux vs windows. Linux is 'free' in all almost all forms. Yet most people use windows. Why? Windows comes 'FREE' already to go on most peoples computers. People do not consider the OS to be a separate part of the computer. I have explained and showed this to many people and they always just go 'wow didnt know it could do that'. Then go 'why would you do that?'. See he put himself in a position where people do not even MAKE the distinction. That took quite a bit of foresight to see. If you are there on every desk from the beginning no one will even question hey 'can I change this out'. It was a huge risk going in with nothing to really sell...

    12. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Almost right on the mark!

      Merely demanding massive privileges isn't enough to convince anyone to give them to you. The other piece to the puzzle is--at least in capitalistic societies--you have to convince everyone that if they exhibit those same supposed qualities, then they, too, will be entitled to those privileges. It then quickly becomes apparent that what we actually have is a lottery-style economy: there are a few jackpot winners, but the overwhelming majority of players are losers. Talent and hard work have their place--you can't win if you don't play--but there simply aren't enough resources on the planet for every single person to live the life of a billionaire, or even a millionaire. (Rather trivially proven, since part of that lifestyle involves having housekeepers and not being a housekeeper--in other words, one of those limited resources is people themselves.)

      There are, of course, smaller measures of success. Not everyone cares to (or believes they can) have so much money that the numbers in their bank account cease to have any meaning; not everyone cares to compete on a global scale. Still, most of us are part of at least one small group that we play status lotto in. Usually, it's at work. Many people happily take salaried, exempt positions, then proceed to work hours and hours of unpaid overtime in the hope that their hard work and sacrifice will be noticed and they'll get ahead in their little group. It's the same principle, though--many will play, few will win.

    13. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by eleuthero · · Score: 1
      In line with the other comments, should it not be surprising to you, if luck is a big part of the situation, that Gates, a hard worker, made it big?

      Adding to this, though, various "hard workers" seem to come from the outlier groups of society ... groups that already don't meet the norm...

      More than the likely number of US presidents have been red-haired... more have been left-handed. Bill Gates is left-handed as are most of the other ridiculously famous people throughout history. I would suggest that groups stand out because they started out different and were forced to do more. Those right-handed men and women throughout history are outliers in some other fashion.

    14. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by GargamelSpaceman · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I understand where that sort of statement come from. It's what you tell yourself when trying to convince yourself to have all those, no doubt useful attributes, i.e. value your natural talent whatever that may be, develop it, be ambitious, and hard working, but in getting to the bottom of things, this sort of propaganda has to be abandoned as it distorts one's perception of reality as much as defeatist statements, like 'talent doesn't matter, even mine', 'why bother developing it then', 'Why be ambitious, it's a lost cause', and 'If you can't win, why work so hard?'

      --
      ...
    15. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by genner · · Score: 1

      What you say is true, but it never ceases to amaze me that people who:

      - have natural talent - develop that talent through hard work and education - are tirelessly ambitious - and incredibly hard working

      Seem to to magically have the best "luck."

      In my line fo work we call those people interns. We don't pay them.

    16. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      society's resources

      Given that premise, it's no wonder that you equate the men who **create** wealth to the "kings of old" who merely looted and consumed it.

      And you call that "patently obvious reasoning"? I call it patently obvious envy (on your part, and on the part of all those losers modding you as "insightful" [spit])

      Luck is the residue of design.

    17. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Kral_Blbec · · Score: 1

      At least not in the news. Personally is a different issue.

    18. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Lots of very smart kids have had their lives destroyed now (huge debt unforgivable debt, no job prospects)

      Meanwhile, somewhere, some lucky person just won a large lottery. Another idiot has invented some stupid product that will be wildly popular for no good reason.

      Life isn't fair.

      You can only play the odds. I assume bad luck is going to hit me. I have almost no debt, nice house, good job, and take very little risk. I'm in the top 20% of the country-- I'll never be in the top 10% but I'm okay with that.

      The people who take the risks (like gates and others) get very rich- and a lot of them end up with huge debt and/or go bankrupt.

      And many of them try again- and get rich- while some others commit suicide.

      Most highly prepared, smart, hard working people do okay.
      Some do everything right and end up screwed anyway.

      most clueless or lazy idiots will end up poor with crappy lives.
      But a few will be multi-millionaires.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    19. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Exactly!

      Like the old joke, even god can't win you the lottery if you don't buy a ticket.

      hard workers have better odds but their are no guarantees.

      hard work + luck is awesome.

      Provided enough luck, you don't need skill.

      You can count on your own skills and abilities- you can't count on luck.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    20. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by JoeMerchant · · Score: 1

      Compare the bright, hardworking people's accomplishments and "luck" to the hundreds of big lottery winners around the country every year.

      Now, compare those lottery winners to the thousands of people who are born to high social standing (rich, powerful parents).

      Now contrast all of those people with the luck of the neighbors of the slumdog millionaire stars.

      Everyone should work to better themselves and their children, and to make the most of the gifts they have - it definitely helps your position in life. But... where you start out, and the uncontrollable events that occur near/to you, have more to do with where you end up than anything else.

    21. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The book didn't argue against that. In fact, if you really feel you put a lot of work into something, but are feeling like giving up, one of the book's main points is that maybe you haven't put in 10K hours yet. If you aren't getting recognition, you might see the need to figure out certain social techniques that would give you the ability to get into a certain track. For instance, it's all about managing expectation. As long as you are being expected to perform at just the level you should be performing at, you should be fine. You will be able to progress.

    22. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by bennomatic · · Score: 1

      The length of a "lucky run" is independent of the size of the data set.

      Not entirely true. If the data set is 10 events (i.e. coin tosses), it's impossible for someone to have a lucky run of 20 events. If the data set is 50 events, 20 events, while improbable (I'm not sure how to calculate it, but it's at least 1/2^20) is certainly possible. 1/2^20 is greater than zero, so the likelihood for a given run does change with the size of the data set. Not significantly, but it does change.

      I was going to suggest that it's 30/2^20, as there are 30 chances to start a 20-win run in a fifty-event data set, but that's clearly wrong because if that were true, a large enough data set would guarantee a 20-win run, which just isn't correct when considering independent random variables.

      Overall, your comment is correct and insightful, but there is at least one case where the size of the data set does matter.

      --
      The CB App. What's your 20?
    23. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by dr_canak · · Score: 1

      Couldn't it also be the case that there are an infinite number of fortuitous events, and that a person's ability to recognize and capitalize on that event is related to (amongst other things I suppose):

      having natural talent
      -and/or-
      developing that talent through hard work and education
      -and/or-
      ambition
      - and/or -
      hard work

      As someone pointed out above, it's not about luck per se, but about maximizing one's chances of being in the right place at the right time. If you operate on the assumption that there are an infinite number of fortuitous events and you have the aforementioned traits, perhaps the chances of encountering a life changing circumstance or event and capitalizing on that circumstance or event is in fact greater than it would be if you lacked the aforementioned traits.

      jeff

    24. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If you love Bill Gates so much, why don't you just marry him?

    25. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by EpsCylonB · · Score: 1

      Maybe that's where the luck is...having been recognized from the see of intelligent, hardworking, ambitious people. Ironic FAIL

    26. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by sjames · · Score: 1

      It's a simple bias. We hear all about Bill Gates BECAUSE he succeeded. Consider the theoretical Elmer Platz. He might well have had twice the natural talent, worked twice as hard, and been even more ambitious. He worked harder still because his parents didn't have the cash to send him to a top school on their own. He failed. He works at a gas station now. Occasionally, he tells people who will listen about how he got THAT close to besting Bill Gates. They reply "Suuuuuuuure Elmer, whatever you say" and we never hear of him at all.

      I would guess the odds of hearing about a success are astronomically larger than the odds of hearing about (and believing) someone who did everything right and failed anyway.

      All of those characteristics the GP listed quite likely increase the odds of success significantly by leaving the person in a position to take advantage of good fortune should it come along, but I doubt that they are sufficient to assure success.

      That's a good comparison with kings of old with their dubious claims of divine providence and the modern wealthy.

    27. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Pentagram · · Score: 1

      What you say is true, but it never ceases to amaze me that people who:

      - have natural talent
      - develop that talent through hard work and education
      - are tirelessly ambitious
      - and incredibly hard working

      Seem to to magically have the best "luck."

      But people who have natural talent have just been lucky in the genetic lottery. Inclination towards hard work and ambition are also genetic. And education depends on environment, or to put it another way, luck as to where one is born.

    28. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by mgblst · · Score: 1

      You are simply ignoring them because they do not fit your theory.

      I don't think he is ignoring him because they don't fit his theory, I think you don't hear about these people, where as we constantly hear about the successful ones.

    29. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by ElectricRook · · Score: 1

      There are only a few reasons for talented people to end up working a cash register...

      A problem with their poisons (Drugs/alcohol).

      Choosing in a field where talent goes unpaid (art / psychology).

      Refusing to relocate where their talent is needed (technology center).

      Personality problems (liar / rude / bathing).

      In my life, I've met a lot of scientists, but never one operating a cash register, and I've met a few artists... Super-Size that please.

      --
      - High Tech workers, please say NO to Union Carpenters, their Union sees fit to control our compensation.
    30. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by ElectricRook · · Score: 1

      Why don't you log off the computer, and go out, and do right, the things Bill Gates did wrong.

      --
      - High Tech workers, please say NO to Union Carpenters, their Union sees fit to control our compensation.
    31. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by Ihlosi · · Score: 1

      There are only a few reasons for talented people to end up working a cash register...

      [...]

      Personality problems (liar / rude / bathing).

      Wait a minute - what business owner in their right mind is going to let someone with these kinds of personality problems work the cash register (i.e. direct contact with customers)?

    32. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 1

      If you operate on the assumption that there are an infinite number of fortuitous events and you have the aforementioned traits, perhaps the chances of encountering a life changing circumstance or event and capitalizing on that circumstance or event is in fact greater than it would be if you lacked the aforementioned traits.

      Unfortunately empirical evidence does not support your claim. Many, many people (in fact a majority of world's population) are placed in a position where no amount of "maximizing one's chances" will make you a Wall Street executive. You might perhaps rise in the ranks of some local war-lord thug's militia before you get your head blown off or some such or receive "advanced religious education" in some madrassa to become a "cleric" with your own fatwa-dispenser, but that's pretty much it. It is because you were dealt a losing set of cards at the outset and no amount of cleverness will do anything about it. In a Western society one can compare a trust-fund kid whose starting position is a VP or a child of the inner-city whose starting position (at a ripe age of 12) is a gang-banger drug pusher. I guess there are "career advancement opportunities" in both, but again...

    33. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by sjames · · Score: 1

      The example may be a bit extreme, but it is worth considering that the same personality traits that CAN lead to great success also tend to make working in a cube farm practically impossible for them.

      Those traits drive them to keep trying until they get the lucky break or burn out and end up working well below their abilities to keep a roof over their head. You wouldn't likely hear a lot about the latter, few people at the Kwiki Mart want to hear the cashier's life story, they just want him to ring up their gas and say "have a nice day".

    34. Re:Yup.. just like stock trading by gfxguy · · Score: 1

      AHHH! The genetic "lottery!" How could I have forgotten?

      I think people misunderstood what I wrote; I didn't say people with talent would always succeed, it just seems to me that very successful people whom people refer to as "lucky" almost always seem to have made their own luck.

      --
      Stupid sexy Flanders.
  6. Malcolm Gladwell has found a niche by spineboy · · Score: 2, Informative

    This seems to be his third or fourth book of this type. Not that I'm complaining - I've read Blink, and Tipping Point - both very interesting reads. It gives some of the explanations behind behaviours that I've noticed, but hadn't thought about why they occurred.

    --
    ..........FULL STOP.
    1. Re:Malcolm Gladwell has found a niche by LotsOfPhil · · Score: 2, Informative

      If you like Tipping Point, read Influence by Robert Cialdini.

      It covers similar topics and (I think) does a better job.

      --
      This post climbed Mt. Washington.
    2. Re:Malcolm Gladwell has found a niche by tcopeland · · Score: 3, Informative

      > Tipping Point

      Note that "Tipping Point" is also on the Navy reading list. "Blink" is on the Coast Guard reading list as well. Gladwell, getting it done...

    3. Re:Malcolm Gladwell has found a niche by wpiman · · Score: 1

      I think the Drunkards Walk is supposed to be similar as well.

  7. No, it really depends on you by tulcod · · Score: 0, Troll

    You really won't ever be a rich company owner, for the simple reason that you will never ever consider starting up a company, let alone the fact that you don't have the insight of what decision is good and which just consumes time.

    Being able to see which decisions are actually relevant is a skill most people don't have, for it requires the "helicopterview" many companies want from management people. If you don't have it, forget about running your own company. You'll fail miserably.

    1. Re:No, it really depends on you by syphax · · Score: 2, Interesting

      First, who's the "you" you are addressing here?

      And you are making the case that Gladwell basically starts with- that successful people are successful simply because they have some unique talent (like having good judgment).

      No example of an "outlier" success story in this book isn't immensely talented. But in addition to their talent, they had other supplementary skills (i.e. not just intellectually smart, but also people-smart, and/or creative, etc.), worked hard, and were in the right place at the right time.

      Gladwell doesn't really do a great job of summarizing his main argument, in my opinion, but it boils down to this: Highly successful people are pretty smart (but Gladwell argues that you only have to be "smart enough"; success doesn't track linearly with intelligence once you hit the "pretty smart and higher" region), have supplementary talents, work hard, come from the "right" background (though what "right" means here is typically only clear in hindsight) AND were in the right place at the right time.

      Not mentioned in the review is the work of Lewis Terman, who identified a cohort of really smart California kids ("Termites") in the 1920's and tracked them for years. The outcomes of the "brightest of the brightest" were not particularly notable; Gladwell explains some of the reasons why.

      --
      Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
  8. Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by Gavin+Scott · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The biggest indicator of this is the large percentage of successful people who fail utterly when they try to reproduce that success a second time.

    Surprise! You actually aren't god's gift to business after all.

    As far as Bill Gates goes though, if you look at his early history he was indeed in the right place at the right time, but he darn well clawed his way to the top through skill as much as luck I think, and I have a lot of respect for that.

    At a very early computer conference, all the other people got up and allowed as how there was going to be plenty of room in this new industry for all the different manufacturers. Only Bill got up and said "you guys are all wrong, there's going to be one winner and the rest will lose".

    Say what you want about Bill's business methodologies, but I think he's actually about the poorest example of the "outlier" effect that you can find.

    G.

    1. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by PiSkyHi · · Score: 2, Insightful

      ... why ? because having access to a computer in an age where having ones own helicopter would be similar had no affect on the outcome of Bill's life ?

    2. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by syphax · · Score: 4, Informative

      Except that Bill Gates himself acknowledges that he had very, very unique opportunities that allowed him to be in the right place at the right time.

      You are falling right into the mindset that Gladwell very effectively unwinds in his book.

      Plenty of people have a killer business instinct. Few are in the position to capitalize on it the way Gates did.

      Gladwell never claims that it's all blind luck for guys like Gates and Joy. Rather, it's talent PLUS practice PLUS temperament PLUS blind luck. Gates had it all. Take away one of these elements, and you end up like some of the other case studies in the book (brilliant but wrong temperament, brilliant but bad timing, etc.).

      --
      Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
    3. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by mveloso · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Evita sang it best (Patti LuPone, not Madonna):

      I was stuck at the right place at the perfect time
      Filled a gap - I was lucky, but one thing I'll say for me
      Noone else can fill it like I can

    4. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by smellsofbikes · · Score: 2, Informative

      Something the reviewer doesn't make clear, that Gladwell spends a lot of time talking about, is just how important BillG's birthdate was. There was apparently a narrow window of opportunity; if you were born before that, you were already entrenched in another field when computers became huge, and if you were born after that you couldn't ever manage to stay up: you weren't in the bubble. Gladwell submitted as evidence that the window of opportunity was about two years long, and in those two years were born Bill Gates, Steve Jobs, Bill Joy -- well, here, let me just quote a partial transcript of Malcolm Gladwell talking about the book:
      "January 1975 was the dawn of the personal computer age. The perfect age to be in 1975 is young enough to see the coming revolution but not so old as to have missed it. You want to be 20 or 21, born in 1954 or 1955.
      Bill Gates, the co-founder of Microsoft, was born on October 28, 1955.
      Paul Allen, the other co-founder of Microsoft, was born on January 21, 1953.
      Steve Ballmer, the present CEO of Microsoft, was born on March 24, 1956.
      Steve Jobs, the co-founder of Apple, was born on February 24, 1955.
      Eric Schmidt, the CEO of Google, was born on April 27, 1955.
      Bill Joy was born on November 8, 1954."

      He's not saying that only people born then become successful, or that every person born then becomes successful, but that people born then have a much greater chance of being successful in a particular field that is just opening up.

      --
      Nostalgia's not what it used to be.
    5. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by retchdog · · Score: 2, Insightful

      A much greater chance; meaning 5 out of ten million, rather than 1 out of ten million?

      --
      "They were pure niggers." – Noam Chomsky
    6. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by SashaMan · · Score: 1

      Mod parent up. Gladwell very explicitly points out that very successful people ARE different than your average joe and that they do have very rare talents. His point, though, is that this alone is not enough - you also need to be lucky enough to be in the right place at the right time and you need to put in a huge amount of training.

    7. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by teknopurge · · Score: 1, Flamebait

      Plenty of people have a killer business instinct. Few are in the position to capitalize on it the way Gates did.

      Gladwell never claims that it's all blind luck for guys like Gates and Joy. Rather, it's talent PLUS practice PLUS temperament PLUS blind luck.

      As a business owner, I can authoritatively say you are full of it and your statement sounds like a way you justify why people don't succeed.

      It doesn't take blind luck - luck is useless because if you have "good" luck, then it clouds your understanding of why you were successful, nevermind that you were.. I built my business by being patient and creating successful opportunities. When my company was in its early stages I didn't get a list of 1000s of potential clients and cold-call them all until I got a hit: I did what I enjoyed and built the services my business provides, then bided my time until I got wind of a client that would be a good fit for us.

      There is one single trait that all successful business people share: they are able to be successful. They make opportunities come to them. They bide their time. They constantly learn and are not career students. They build quality relationships.

      Regards,

    8. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by tilandal · · Score: 1

      And how many billions have you made? What separates you from people like Bill Gates and Henry Ford? Timing and Luck.

    9. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by jollyreaper · · Score: 1

      The biggest indicator of this is the large percentage of successful people who fail utterly when they try to reproduce that success a second time.

      Goes back to the fishing analogy. You could try it with cars but it won't work as well. There's a number of factors you can control to maximize your potential for a successful fishing trip. Find out when you should fish, get the right bait, use the proper equipment, all of these factors are in your control. As to whether or not the fish are biting, that's beyond your control. You could be doing everything right and fail. But if the conditions are favorable, you should be getting bites. And once that fish is on the line, then it's up to your skill to get it on the boat. If you're doing everything right, you should be getting bites eventually.

      I've seen people do very well getting some lucky breaks and making proper use of them. I've seen people throw those breaks away for various reasons and wonder why they don't succeed. I've seen some people who are ready and primed to take the break, who are doing their best to make their own luck, but the breaks just aren't coming. I think it's very arrogant for the highly successful to believe that all of it is due to them and no other thing. That kind of attitude breeds a cocky arrogance. Think of how many acorns are dropped in a forest in a year and how many of those grow to become great trees? Some ridiculously small number I'm sure. Or look at how many eggs a sea turtle lays and how few of them grow into adulthood. It's the same winnowing process. If Bill Gates never succeeded you know damn well there would be a Will Fence or Sam Porticus for us to all bitch about.

      --
      Kwisatz Haderach
      Sell the spice to CHOAM
      This Mahdi took Shaddam's Throne
    10. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by The+End+Of+Days · · Score: 1

      I think this is a matter of understanding the definitions. No one is saying that it takes the perfect storm of attributes to be successful, per se. The article is about people who are enormously successful. Your typical business owner making a good living isn't really what this is about.

    11. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by radtea · · Score: 1

      because having access to a computer

      There is no evidence that Gates is a particularly able developer, so it is a little weird that anyone would focus on the "10,000 hours" rule with regard to his computing skills.

      He is a very capable, ruthless, driven, business-person. THAT is his talent, and I'd bet that MS began to really take off five or ten years after Gates entered the business world... which in fact it did.

      The huge success he made of Microsoft is also due in significant part to luck. As others have pointed out here, very few business-people are successful more than once, which is clear empirical proof of factors beyond their control being a very large contributor to their initial success. There's even some evidence that successful business people are less likely to succeed in their second venture, because they are unable to appreciate how much the original success was due to luck.

      This is not to say that hard work is not necessary. But the data clearly show it is not sufficient. One place where hard work does pay off is longevity: a business that lives a long time has a better chance of finding itself in the right place at the right time.

      --
      Blasphemy is a human right. Blasphemophobia kills.
    12. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by timeOday · · Score: 2, Interesting

      But analysing Bill Gates will never answer the question: given my own (sub-optimal) personal situation, how much would I benefit by trying? You don't want to be unrealistically optimistic (and waste your time) or pessimistic (and not achieve as much as you could have). All the Bill G. example shows is you'll never be #1 in the entire world unless you are both lucky and good. But normally you don't have to be #1 for something to be worthwhile.

    13. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by Knuckles · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And had you happened to have cancer or a car accident at the wrong time it would all have been for nothing.

      --
      "When I first heard Daydream Nation it quite frankly scared the living shit out of me." -- Matthew Stearns
    14. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by jeffc128ca · · Score: 1

      "There is one single trait that all successful business people share: they are able to be successful."

      That's crap and I don't buy it. Luck and chance do play a part, the degree to which is entirely dependent on circumstances.

      What if you walk into a 7/11 for a pop and unluckily for you the store is robed at gunpoint and your killed for the contents of your wallet. What if your an incredibly skilled businessmen who works in the World Trade Center on the morning of Sept 11. All of your business skill means nothing. Your successful because you haven't run into an unlucky situation yet. There are countless important moments in history that could have been vastly different if only for chance. Famous historic battles could have turned if the wind blowed in a different direction or the field wasn't so soggy. Chance plays a role in everything.

    15. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by jmorris42 · · Score: 1

      > There was apparently a narrow window of opportunity..

      But it is a stupid point. Yes when a new ooporunity is opening up it will usually be dominated by the 'young turks' of the time. But if you missed the opening days of the PC there were a lot of other places to get in. And a lot of people did. You don't have to succeed to household word status to be a success. Even people who 'lost' made sacks of cash. How many .bomb billionaires are still walking around looking for the next big thing to invest in?

      I can agree with the notion that success on the scale of Gates or Joy requires a fair amount of luck. But luck alone was not enough back then, although it appears that the .bomb was a totally different case. It is apparent that luck along pushed some of those guys to billionaire status because the VC and IPO people had gone mad, throwing insane amounts of cash at projects any rational person could see would never perform to their valuations.

      --
      Democrat delenda est
    16. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      >>The biggest indicator of this is the large percentage of successful people who fail utterly when they try to reproduce that success a second time.

      Sure, but then you have people like Carnegie, who were able to sell out, and start new a business, and via insight and cunning, form successful businesses over and over. I think Carnegie Steel was his third successful enterprise.

    17. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is one single trait that all successful business people share: they are able to be successful. They make opportunities come to them. They bide their time. They constantly learn and are not career students. They build quality relationships.

      You've missed the point. For every person like you've just described who is successful, there are many, many more with identical qualities who are not successful.

      The difference between them is luck.

    18. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sure, but while many people are able to "be successful", Bill Gates is the third richest person in the world, and you, while possibly quite successful in your own right, are not.

      That is where luck comes into it.

    19. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      As far as Bill Gates goes though, if you look at his early history he was indeed in the right place at the right time, but he darn well clawed his way to the top through skill as much as luck I think, and I have a lot of respect for that.

      And I'm scared shitless to know I live in a world where people happily admit that they have respect for people willing to engage in all sorts of sleazy criminal behavior that causes massive damage to everyone around them as long as they manage to make a lot of money doing so.

      I'm sorry you're so completely lacking in what us human beings like to call "ethics", "morality", and "basic human decency" that you respect the antithesis of everything good about our species. How truly disgusting it must be to be you.

    20. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It doesn't take blind luck - luck is useless because if you have "good" luck, then it clouds your understanding of why you were successful, nevermind that you were.. I built my business by being patient and creating successful opportunities.

      Are you the richest person in the world? Are you in the running for that?

      No? Then please don't think that your personal experience has any meaning whatsoever in this topic. You are not the type of person that is being discussed. You are not anywhere even remotely approaching "successful" in this context.

    21. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by mgblst · · Score: 1

      Exactly, no need to look past Bill himself, Microsoft was a huge money earner, but his recent business seems to be losing money left, right and center.

    22. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by PiSkyHi · · Score: 1

      Most people that have access to a computer are not able developers, but back then, hardly anyone had access to a computer.

    23. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by PiSkyHi · · Score: 1

      I agree it doesn't warrant much concern with respect to relevance to my own personal life. I don't think of Bill as being #1 anyway, deserved or undeserved, I would have trouble sleeping if I were Bill, and I enjoy a good sleep more than money. (Both is the best situation, but I would not wish to sacrifice either.)

    24. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by sgt_doom · · Score: 1

      Outstanding points....does anyone know who Gary Starkweather is? Quite a genius accomplishment of his?

      Anyone remember Dennis Hayes - another genius-level accomplishment? How about Steinmetz, Tesla and Farnsworth? Remember who coded the first hyperlink in a commercial product? Never discount that random factor.....

    25. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by ElSupreme · · Score: 1

      Except Microsoft is still making money hand over fist.

      --
      My addiction: Arguing with idiots. AKA Slashdot!
    26. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by ErkDemon · · Score: 1
      Gates' family were well off, in corporate law and banking. His Mum knew the head of IBM. I just wp-ed Gates' old school, and their success rate in getting students to higher education is listed as 99%.

      That's not a bad start in life. It doesn't //guarantee// success, but it means that at least you grow up knowing what success looks like, and what strategies to emulate. Not everybody has that.

    27. Re:Well, statistics says this must be true, but... by karlconnors · · Score: 1

      That is actually a good point.

  9. On youtube by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I remember seeing a googletechtalk on this for anyone interested you should be able to find it on youtube. Personally I didn't like the presentation.

  10. Sounds like Attribution Theory by spun · · Score: 2, Informative

    Specifically, an example of the Fundamental Attribution Error.

    --
    - None can love freedom heartily, but good men; the rest love not freedom, but license. -- John Milton
    1. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by DeadChobi · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Well yeah, but the way the book is described, it sounds a lot to me like a way to excuse not trying at all. "Oh, I'm never going to get my 10,000 hours in because I don't have the good fortune of having a good computer terminal and the societal situation where my skills will be needed." The Fundamental Attribution Error is the other side of the fine line that needs walking. On one side we have the idea that everyone can outstrip everyone else through sheer force of will and intelligence. On the other side we have the idea that there is no way to control our lives and that everyone who succeeds in life is simply lucky enough to be in conditions that allow them to succeed. The latter mistaken view would result in people waiting their whole lives for an opportunity instead of seeking one out. Yes, conditions are important, but you have to seek out conditions for your success rather than just standing around waiting for it to happen.

      It sounds like the author neglects to mention that Bill Gates put in those 10,000 hours through sheer tenacity. Programming is actually hard work, and so is self-teaching. There was no luck involved in the things that determined his personality, unless you want to go so far as to say that everything we do is through sheer chance and that there is no real cognition. Cognition is a deterministic process, not a wholly unpredictable process. For whatever reason Bill Gates fixated on computer programming. You might even say that he decided to study computer programming.

      --
      SRSLY.
    2. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by retchdog · · Score: 1

      Well, don't worry. The way things are going, you'll have to fight like hell just to survive. Forget any meaningful kind of "success". Unless you're born into the right group, and if you are, you know it and don't need to do much of anything.

      --
      "They were pure niggers." – Noam Chomsky
    3. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by morgan_greywolf · · Score: 1

      Interestingly (or perhaps ironically), the article you point to discusses Malcom Gladwell's definition of funadmental attribution error: "extrapolation from a measured characteristic to an unrelated characteristic."

    4. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by Knuckles · · Score: 5, Insightful

      There was no luck involved in the things that determined his personality

      Not to take anything away from hard work, but coming from a rich family that allowed him to put 10,000 hours into programming instead of, say, shoveling ditches at 16 certainly was not *bad* luck.

      --
      "When I first heard Daydream Nation it quite frankly scared the living shit out of me." -- Matthew Stearns
    5. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by ShakaUVM · · Score: 4, Insightful

      >>Well yeah, but the way the book is described, it sounds a lot to me like a way to excuse not trying at all. "Oh, I'm never going to get my 10,000 hours in because I don't have the good fortune of having a good computer terminal and the societal situation where my skills will be needed."

      Actually, Gladwell says just that in an interview with Charlie Rose.
      http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/9855

      He surmises that the reason really smart people (people with high IQs) don't do noticeably better than merely smart people (IQs around 120) is that they know how much work it'll take, and choose to not do it. He says they are noticeably happier than the general population, so maybe that's the key.

      I finished Outliers last week, and came away with it with the same impression that I get from all of Gladwell's books, which is that it's half insightful, half complete nonsense.

      For example, his central thesis is that our heroic model isn't accurate, that Bill Joy and Gates are more the product of their times than anything having to do with their own skills, and that they just happened to be given the necessary 10,000 hours of training before anyone else had access to them, and since they were born at the right time to capitalize on the digital revolution, that's why they're successful.

      Personally, I'd flip it around. I'd say, "Sure, training, skill, being born at the right time, and luck in general, are all critical elements of success. But why was it that Joy and Gates became the 'successful' people, when their compatriots, who also had the 10,000 hours of training, early access to computer systems, and were bright and ambitious, did not?"

      In other words, Gladwell goes too far in destroying the idea of individual effort in becoming 'successful'. While we might often fail to consider the environment that produced these people, we also have to realize (which Gladwell doesn't) that these guys weren't, by any means, unique in their backgrounds.

      I also take some exception with his notion of success, which is to use wealth as a sort of scorecard. I take Benjamin Franklin's point of view on money, which is to say that it's important up to a certain point, and relatively unimportant after that. If you have enough money to do whatever it is you want to do, that's all the money you really need. It's served me pretty well.

      Perhaps Gladwell should have dug down a little more on those high IQ people that are "failures" (in the sense that they didn't go out and win Nobels at a significantly higher rate) and figured out why they are indeed happier than the general population, since, in my mind, that is the primary indicator of success.

    6. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by droptone · · Score: 2, Informative

      Just to let you know, heritability estimates for conscientiousness are between 0.18-0.49 (Michelle Luciano, Mark A. Wainwright, Margaret J. Wright, Nicholas G. Martin, The heritability of conscientiousness facets and their relationship to IQ and academic achievement, Personality and Individual Differences, Volume 40, Issue 6, April 2006, Pages 1189-1199, ISSN 0191-8869, DOI: 10.1016/j.paid.2005.10.013).

      --
      Every post I make begins with the assumption P=~P.
    7. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      For whatever reason Bill Gates fixated on computer programming. You might even say that he decided to study computer programming.

      That may be so... but as the book points out, at the time Bill Gates was learning to program there was very little opportunity for a teenager to learn programming. Bill Gates was fortunate to have virtually unlimited access to computers, access few others had.
           

    8. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by OwnedByTwoCats · · Score: 2, Interesting

      There was no luck involved in the things that determined his personality

      It just happened that that the skills he honed over those 10,000 hours happened to turn into something valuable. And then Microsoft got a series of lucky breaks. The weather happened to be good on the day that IBM wanted to talk to Intergalactic Digital Research, so the founder was out flying his plane. Had it been a rainy day, Gates' company might have made it through the 1980s, or it might have foundered or been bought out. It certainly wouldn't have been the powerhouse that it is.

      Why is it that some musicians, after 10,000 hours of practice, are struggling with their day jobs, and others are mega-stars?

    9. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by FrankieBaby1986 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Here, Here, between 10 and 15 I put in a lot of time self-studying computers (old (2/3)86 machines that people gave away), and generally excelled in school. But when 16 came along, it was time to start working if I wanted anything, all thew way up through my 4 years so far in college. Needless to say, my progress has been less than stellar. Partly my own fault, partly because after working 20 hrs a week outside of class to pay for college, the less-than-fascinating classes take a hit.

      --
      ERROR: SIG NOT FOUND (A)bort, (R)etry, (F)ail?:
    10. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by Knuckles · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Where I live, people who, for some reason or other, don't go into higher education start an apprenticeship at 16, if they are lucky and don't end up as unskilled workers. Part of that apprenticeship is to attend formal education at a public vocational school for 3 months per year or so. There, they are supposed to practice their craft in a regulated setting and learn the theoretical stuff they need. The school is also partly supposed to ensure that their masters/educators at the company do a reasonable job, which sadly is often not the case.

      Friends of mine teach at such a vocational school, and they report that the students are generally in a sad state. Usually they come from less than stellar homes, which makes them prone to being more used to drinking and watching TV than educating themselves. In addition they are often used more as cheap labor than actual apprentices at their jobs, and they are often doing really hard work for their age, which often is mindless, too. As a result, the efforts at school largely go to waste, despite the best efforts of most of the teachers.
      Any talented kids that grow up in such an environment are IMHO very likely to end up below the level that is possible for them.

      I myself always worked during summers from 16 all through my university years, and earlier-on, during my school year and early uni time when I was not skilled enough to get actually interesting jobs in my field of study, I usually worked quite demanding jobs in construction, factories, etc., because they paid reasonably.
      I doubt that many people are able to educate themselves properly in their free time in addition to doing jobs like these, even if they are highly intelligent and interested. I'm not saying that it is impossible, and we all know that there are examples for that. However, it takes a very special state of mind, a lack of which says little about the other talents of a human being.

      --
      "When I first heard Daydream Nation it quite frankly scared the living shit out of me." -- Matthew Stearns
    11. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It sounds like the author neglects to mention that Bill Gates put in those 10,000 hours through sheer tenacity.

      Not so. He clearly points out that hard work is something that all of these people have in common. The point is, however, that hard work was only part of the story. Had Bill Gates gone to a different high school through any number unrelated coincidences (what you seem to call luck), you wouldn't know his name.

      Read the book.

    12. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This book also ignores the fact that Gates success is not based on his programming "genius." PC (MS) DOS was a purchased product modified for use with the IBM PC. Selling that at a price below the other OS options (CP/M-86 and UCSD p-system IIRC) made it the OS of choice.

      MS later bought such products as Word etc. Their code was not the result of Gates work, but the many staffers lead by folks like Hetenyi et al. The resulting code is IMNSHO, crap.

      Greed, questionable business practices and a virtual monopoly can explain Gates wealth much better than his programming skills or his playing with computers as a teen.

    13. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by DocHoncho · · Score: 1

      I always knew you were crazy, but this is a whole new low.

      Good job!

      --
      Celebrity worship is a poor substitute for Deity worship and costs more to boot.
    14. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by pyrbrand · · Score: 1

      Actually, having read the book, that's not it at all. The thesis of the book is that success is not the product of pure personal genius. The chapters go on to illustrate that the very top tiers of success, the outliers, got their not from inherent ability, but by the combined force of access, lucky breaks, effort, societal influence demonstrating the rewards of hard work, etc. It argues that an appreciation of these facts can help society not lose out on those who don't have these contributors to their success by providing them (for example, far more children would do well in school simply from longer hours and breaking up the school year so that classes start at different times based on 3-month age brackets instead of 12).

    15. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by mgblst · · Score: 1

      It sounds like the author neglects to mention...

      Have you actually read the book, or are you just jumping to some huge conclusion based on this review? This doesn't seem like a very smart thing to do.

    16. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by mgblst · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It can also go the other way. I come from a rich family, therefore I don't have to work hard, since I will be well off anyway.

      A lot of rich families pamper their children, and don't instill in the them the same need to work. Bill got away with it, I think, because of a natural interest in computers, that a lot of us here have.

    17. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by Gorobei · · Score: 1

      Good point.

      Gladwell is way over-simplifying. 10,000 hours is not something magic. Many people have noted that practice must be directed (e.g. I know a number of people who spent 10K hours practicing martial arts: the good ones were the ones who thought about every kick, the mediocre just got fit.) It's like Tiger Woods describing how he thinks about his golf swing: deep, repetitive self analysis. Or George Burns at 80 discussing his comedy routine: he was still listening to the audience and working on getting the words and pauses exactly right.

      As Paul Graham notes, it takes 10 years to become expert. 10K hours lets you get your foot in the door. Then spend another 20K hours to get to that expert level. And if you want to be a true master, expect another 90K hours working on your craft. As Chaucer said: the life so short, the craft so long to learn.

      Reminds me of the last time I was interviewing candidates at MIT. One rattled off his achievements and skills, and asked when he could start fixing our business and how much he could expect to be paid for doing it. Trying not to laugh, I explained we considered him promising, and with another ten years of education in the business he might achieve the position to which he was aspiring.

    18. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      >>Gladwell is way over-simplifying. 10,000 hours is not something magic.

      I've heard the term tossed around in other books and papers.

      Personally, my thought is that 'talent' is a modifier to the number of hours to reach expert proficiency in an area. I teach kids martial arts for fun, and there's certainly a difference between kids with how fast they can pick it up. It has to do with a combination of discipline, physical fitness, flexibility, intelligence, and a willingness to learn.

    19. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by styrotech · · Score: 3, Informative

      For example, his central thesis is that our heroic model isn't accurate, that Bill Joy and Gates are more the product of their times than anything having to do with their own skills, and that they just happened to be given the necessary 10,000 hours of training before anyone else had access to them, and since they were born at the right time to capitalize on the digital revolution, that's why they're successful.

      I don't think he ever implied that in the book - he stated quite often during the book that it still required plenty of innate talent and hard work to succeed. In that chapter the book practically worships Bill Joy's intellect as well as the hard work it took to gain that 10,000 hours experience.

      There are lots of people with talent that work just as hard that don't succeed - the book tries answer why by examining what else is required, and concludes that circumstance plays a significant part.

    20. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by Gorobei · · Score: 2, Funny

      Agreed. There is a talent modifier, possibly because certain skills are acquired and fixed early or are basically innate, e.g. proprioception, curiosity, observation, abstract thought, moral sense, sociability.

      Heck, I remember a first grade math question from the teacher: if it takes 8 minutes to boil an egg, how long does it take to boil two eggs? I was stunned that all the other kids got the answer wrong. Then again, I sucked at a lot of other things they found easy.

    21. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      >>There are lots of people with talent that work just as hard that don't succeed - the book tries answer why by examining what else is required, and concludes that circumstance plays a significant part.

      It doesn't come off that way. He sort of flippantly says, "Well, of course Bill Joy is smart", but then goes on to minimize his own individual efforts. As I said, it's instructive to think about why Joy and Gates succeeded when other people with equal intelligence, hours of effort, and opportunities succeeded in making billion dollar companies when others didn't.

    22. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by Fulcrum+of+Evil · · Score: 1

      Gladwell goes too far in destroying the idea of individual effort in becoming 'successful'.

      Not at all - there's a world of difference between the successful software guy and Microsoft (insert joke here). Basically, hard work will pay off, and the more effort you put into your work, the better you will do, but getting to the Bill gates level takes something beyond your control.

      I take Benjamin Franklin's point of view on money, which is to say that it's important up to a certain point, and relatively unimportant after that.

      Interestingly, Bill Gates says the same thing - "I have infinite money". He didn't spend his last 10 years and MS because he needed more moolah, he did it to make MS more successful.

      --
      "We returned the General to El Salvador, or maybe Guatemala, it's difficult to tell from 10,000 feet"
    23. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by sgt_doom · · Score: 1

      Not to mention that his mother was friends with Bill Akers at IBM, the CEO who handed Gates the greatest licensing monopoly in the history of humanity (DOS, that is) and Gates' uncle was the vice-president of a Seattle bank which gave Gates his principal first financing for M$.

      Sorry, I meant not to mention it.......

    24. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by TechForensics · · Score: 1

      Why is it that some musicians, after 10,000 hours of practice, are struggling with their day jobs, and others are mega-stars?

      Gladwell would say these struggling, unsuccessful ones didn't have the bare minimum of ability, or failed to catch the right lucky break. It is better to summarize his thinking by saying that giftedness equals large success (and therefore is perceived as giftedness) 1) if it meets a certain minimum; and 2) it is potentiated by hard work (possibly stemming from intense interest) and happy accidents of timing and opportunity. An outlier is an outlier based on the convergence of necessary factors, and not due to ability alone.

      --
      Those are my principles, and if you don't like them... well, I have others.
    25. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by Javagator · · Score: 1

      Gates sold IBM the rights to use DOS in all their computers, forever, for the one time price of $50,000. Not enough to make him a billionaire. However, smaller, more efficient companies built IBM compatible computers much cheaper than IBM could, eventually driving IBM out of the market. Gates sold DOS to them at a per copy rate. That did make him a billionaire.

    26. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by DeadChobi · · Score: 1

      Definitely the latter. The review is apparently misleading in some aspects. I do enjoy reading the discussion that my post prompted however. It's very interesting.

      --
      SRSLY.
    27. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      Heck, I remember a first grade math question from the teacher: if it takes 8 minutes to boil an egg, how long does it take to boil two eggs?
      Was the answer 8 minutes? 'Cause you can always toss a second egg in the pot. =)

      But yeah, I remember getting into an argument with my 5th grade class. I was trying to convince them (unsuccessfully) that 10/100ths was the same as 1/10th. Their argument? The 100thes were just "too small" to ever add up to a tenth. The teacher? Took the side of the kids.

      I remember nearly crying with frustration sketching out a 10x10 grid on the blackboard, diligently coloring in 10 of them, circling it, and showing that it was the same size as a 1/10th slice of an equal sized square, and they still didn't believe me.... grr.

    28. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      >>Not at all - there's a world of difference between the successful software guy and Microsoft (insert joke here).

      What I'm saying is that the guy that makes $250,000 a year, is happily married, has written some code that has been used by millions, and has enough free time to enjoy life and play video games in the afternoons sometimes is more successful in my book than the unhappy billionaire who never gets the chance to enjoy life, and whose kids hate him because he's never home.

    29. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by Knuckles · · Score: 1

      Yeah, can happen. However, I suggest you read some social sciences statistics about which percentage of professionally successful people come from rich background, and which percentage of losers come from poor background. I think you will find that being rich does not exactly set you up for the sad life story that you outlined.

      --
      "When I first heard Daydream Nation it quite frankly scared the living shit out of me." -- Matthew Stearns
    30. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by Knuckles · · Score: 1

      This book also ignores the fact that Gates success is not based on his programming "genius."

      We all know (or should know) the story. From reading the other comments I don't think that the book ignores it. The "review" just didn't make that very clear.

      --
      "When I first heard Daydream Nation it quite frankly scared the living shit out of me." -- Matthew Stearns
    31. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by pko66 · · Score: 1

      Well, there is a glitch (a few of them really) in this review... Gladwell does NOT say that you need luck and persistence instead of being a genius to become an outlier... what he DOES say is that you need ALL: luck (opportunity, means, social environment), persistence (time, work, practice) *AND* genius. You can substitute one of them with the others up to a certain point, but you need at least a certain amount of the three. Likening IQ to height in basketball players, if you are much less than 5ft tall, no amount of practice and good coordination will make you a world-class player. What Gladwell says about the software pioneers is that all of them were born at the right moment and also had the luck to enjoy access to almost unlimited computer time when very few people had it, but that is just ONE THIRD; they also needed to work really really hard and also have the right combination of analytic genius and social skills. Many other people had the access time and perfect age but did not become software millionaires. The chapter about Bill Langen deals precisely to that: you can have an off-the-limit high IQ and do not accomplish anything meaningful if you lack the opportunity or background to exercise that over-the-top capacity. BTW, what perspires a little in the book (just my opinion...) is that in some cases (like bill gates or mozart), contrary to popular perception, were cases of LESS genius and more work and opportunity (although with a great amount of genius nevertheless) compared to other outliers.

    32. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by pko66 · · Score: 1

      Well, I think you are missing the point:

      - You need some kind of objective metric, and wealth is a world wide accepted one. Not the only (money is not mentioned when talking about the beatles because in that case you do not need it to prove they were outliers). How do you propose to measure "happiness"? a measure valid for everyone, please, not just someone from your own country and social background. Money is not a perfect measure by any means, but it is a objective one and pretty well accepted and understood everywhere. Chapters 1, 2, 6, 7 or 9 were not about wealth at all.

      - Gladwell never says you do not need personal effort and intelligence (in fact, in the chapter about Flom says exactly the opposite), he simply emphasizes the other aspects in the cases (Mozart, Gates) where genius is a given fact from the beginning.

    33. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      >>You need some kind of objective metric, and wealth is a world wide accepted one.

      But why? I'd consider Benjamin Franklin the most successful person of early America, and he was only moderately wealthy.

      With the Beatles, it's a little different since money is like a scorecard of how many people listened to them. If 10 million people bought a Beatles' LP, but only a million bought an Animals' LP, then it's fair to say that people likes the Beatles' music more to a certain extent. They were the more successful group.

      But was Franklin Raines' successful? He was "The First Black Man to Run a Fortune 500 Company", and ended up becoming a lot more wealthy from Fannie Mae than was probably legal, so if we're counting personal wealth as a scorecard, he should be considered a shining success. Regardless of the fact that he was instrumental in starting the subprime mortgage crisis, something of a thief, and didn't legitimately earn nearly any of his personal fortune.

      >>How do you propose to measure "happiness"?

      There's actually a lot of research rating different cultures by happiness. It's not an especially difficult problem.

    34. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by Torontoman · · Score: 1

      I've read the book - (a must read!) Gladwell very actively promotes the idea that it was a lot of circumstance about Gates being able to have access to a computer PLUS a lot of work and effort as well. He could have done anything else with his time but he chose to play with the freely offered computer system.

      The hockey thing is fascinating - he focuses on hockey but also references that it shows up in soccer in Europe and South America as well. His point is kids that might only be marginally better at the start become massively better over time because they veered down the path in the first part of their lives and receive marginally better coaching and a lot more ice time from the get-go. He isn't saying "Don't try" he's saying the system is steeped against you if you were born late in the year. Having said that - Sidney Crosby's birthday is August 7th. There's a guy in the OHL named John Tavares who plays for the London Knights who was born in Sept who is slated to go first overall this year. It can be done.

      Torontoman

    35. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by Chosen+Reject · · Score: 1

      That is a thin line until you realize that success or failure don't mean billionaire or hobo. Nor are you taking into account that it isn't boolean logic. Have you succeeded or failed if you only get 75% of your goal? What if the goal was to make a $1,000,000 but only $900,000 was made? I wouldn't exactly call it failure.

      Then again, maybe that's why I'm not a billionaire.

      --
      Stop Global Warming!
      Just say no to irreversible processes!
    36. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by sgt_doom · · Score: 1

      Not quite right, IBM sold the actual licensing (just check the original contract docs) to the IBM-financed DOS to Gates - DOS's development IBM had underwritten. You are talking about something which occurred later in the time sequence. Principally by that deal, Akers took IBM from the number one company - by valuation - on the planet to number 50, while M$ became.....

      And M$'s sole license of DOS allowed it the position as if one engine company made the automotive engines for all the world's cars --- easily the best licensing deal yet in human history.....

    37. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by thebigbadme · · Score: 1

      I think what he is getting at with the Joy/Gates bit, is that not too many people were at the right place at that right time... If you can provide me with a list of people, who, having early access around the same time-frame (say 1968-1970/1 to begin with) that Joy/Gates would have been learning to program, who also managed to put in the same large chunk of time (about 10,000 hours worth of programming) just before the world writ large suddenly found a need for their skills (sudden crops of personal computers required sudden computing gurus), and didn't become successful, I will concede your point in this matter.

      I think I remember hearing that interview (a few hours ago actually), and he mentions that it is also a trait of the Bill's personalities that drove them to spend their time in such a matter; that part being the individual effort. Yeah, maybe other people had access, but they didn't all put in the time required (10kHrs).
      The fact that Bill and Bill did put in the long hours is a testament to their individual efforts. Gladwell does seem to understand this bit.
      Just the same, not every shitty british dive band from the 50's had the chance to go to Hamburg and become a strip club house band (not exactly sure on the strip club part), and of those that might have had the opportunity presented to them, only one seems to have gone and put in the work needed to become a superb group at that time... etc etc

      as for the higher IQ peeps... eh, yeah, that'd be interesting too

      --
      "It's the Law of the Universe, and I'm the sheriff." Slash-cott 2/10-2/17
    38. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by thebigbadme · · Score: 1

      oh yeah... and the money as a score card thing, it seems to be that from an economist standpoint of trying to quantify something, money makes a handy place-holder. Just as how insurance companies will pro-rate your body, and the usefulness there of, in the case of calculating compensation for loss of use due to injury. I even heard on NPR a couple of years back someone explaining that corporations assign values (in units of money) to get people to do certain tasks, such as earn $x working a job that requires moving to a new location, earn $y to have a job which might not be so conducive to having/starting a family, etc. Yeah, money is only useful to the point of having enough to do what you want from the perspective of an individual gaining money. But, it is also useful as a valuation system. I am in the camp of people that don't think money indicates success, my mother is opposite. Though we disagree, I have found that with no-other data on a given matter of success, the vast majority of people in western(ized) cultures would say that someone with a greater amount of monetary assets is more successful. However, if you take into account that so-and-so1 only earns $q but is also a devoted, loving parent, who never misses childhood event n, where as so-and-so2 earns $q^8 but is never around to spend time with the offspring (or whatever the local popular consensus happens to be as to what makes a person a good person)... and views on success tend to change.

      sorry if that's difficult to understand (it's late in my local time, and I might have made large errors in my logic)

      take care and be well

      --
      "It's the Law of the Universe, and I'm the sheriff." Slash-cott 2/10-2/17
    39. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by thebigbadme · · Score: 1

      Why is it that some musicians, after 10,000 hours of practice, are struggling with their day jobs, and others are mega-stars?

      Well, it seems a choice of priorities... day job, or obsessiveness over music... see, the creative peak for males (who seem to make up a disproportionate amount of mega-stars) tends to be in the early-mid 20s. Now, if a person can manage to put in their 10,000 hours by the time they hit that home stretch for creativity, they have a much higher chance of being able to produce at the exact right time that opportunity happens to drunkenly barge in their front door. If the musician isn't quite there, then opportunity might not stay long, or if the creative peak is too far past, there might not be as much drive behind the music. It's not easy to put in that sort of practice. If you began playing guitar, for example, for 2.739... hours every single day for 10 years, you'd have 10kHrs in that time, if you only put in one hour of practice each and every day, you wouldn't reach 10kHrs until sometime after 27 years.

      I happen to believe that the majority of current mega-stars aren't quite up to par. Then again, when opportunity happened to come calling, they happened to be in the right place, and were good enough, maybe not the absolute best... there wasn't enough competition in the right place. More difficult to be in the right place if you have a day job to worry about.

      Not everyone who can even manage to put in enough time has that certain factor that separates the good, the bad, and the ugly. And those that do, can't always feel free to just disregard the rest of all their possible responsibilities.

      PM me if you'd like to have a larger (two-way) discussion on the whole bit about musicians...

      --
      "It's the Law of the Universe, and I'm the sheriff." Slash-cott 2/10-2/17
    40. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by thebigbadme · · Score: 1

      They aren't rich because of talent, they aren't rich by virtue of working harder or smarter. They are rich because they were lucky or wicked. Thus it is moral to redistribute their ill gotten gains to the noble downdrodden poor.

      Maybe... or maybe not. Maybe there's more to it than that. Perhaps there was someone who was a hard worker, and had a little bit of smarts, and decided that they'd rather look out for themselves because all the stupid lazy people out there weren't going to lend a hand. And through this, not so much being wicked, they became rich.

      I think that there is truth in your claim, but I hope you're a little more careful in dealing out your punishments than to say that everyone who is of sort x gets punishment y ... and would consider that there are outliers who might not, and morally should not, be punished with the rest of the herd... who are you to dictate moral standards?

      that being said, on a personal level I'd like to see the rich boiled live in oil

      --
      "It's the Law of the Universe, and I'm the sheriff." Slash-cott 2/10-2/17
    41. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

      If you can provide me with a list of people, who, having early access around the same time-frame (say 1968-1970/1 to begin with) that Joy/Gates would have been learning to program, who also managed to put in the same large chunk of time (about 10,000 hours worth of programming) just before the world writ large suddenly found a need for their skills (sudden crops of personal computers required sudden computing gurus), and didn't become successful, I will concede your point in this matter.
      For one thing, computer access wasn't quite so rare as Gladwell makes it out to be during that time period. I was just giving a seminar in the middle of nowhere (El Centro, California), and one of the teachers there was a computer science geek that had basically the same story as Joy and Gates. Without the billion dollar company though; he ended up going into the military and doing quite well there.

      The book itself talks about Gates' and Joy's classmates who quite obviously had the same opportunities, and apparently even put in the same number of hours. Even if we're talking about a pool of just 100 people who had access to 10,000 hours with computers at the time (which was probably grossly understated, as I mentioned above - let's say 50,000 would be a better number), what was it about Gates and Joy that set them apart?

      Ok, sure, their individual talent was perhaps not enough to raise them to be the top nerds out of a nation of millions, but they still had to do something to become top nerds out of a pool of tens of thousands, and it's *this* factor that Gladwell tries to handwave away via his book.

    42. Re:Sounds like Attribution Theory by Gorobei · · Score: 1

      Yep - I spent a lot of time in the kitchen and knew how things were done :)

      Had a similar experience with 5-8, I said -3, and the teacher declared it wrong because "we haven't learned negative numbers yet."

      Luckily, I later moved to a different school district, and they just moved me from the 3rd grade to the 8th grade classroom when it was time for math. Didn't affect my rank in class, but at least I wasn't completely bored :)

  11. Outliars by taliesinangelus · · Score: 1

    At first I read this as Outliars. I think that might work too for some "successful" people.

  12. I just finished the book ... by richg74 · · Score: 5, Insightful
    It is bound to bear out in the minds of many Prof. Richard Feynman's assertion, which we may modify to say that giftedness and IQ are not inherent but conferred by accidents or benefits of culture, or at least via mechanisms that are not obvious.

    -

    As it happens, I have just finished reading Outliers, and I liked it a lot. (I've also liked Gladwell's two previous books, The Tipping Point and Blink.)

    I would summarize Gladwell's conclusion slightly differently. I think he would accept that some people are inherently gifted -- in several places, he is careful to say that people like Bill Joy and Bill Gates were very talented. It seems to me the kernel of his argument is that they had inherent talent, but became truly exceptional owing to a combination of favorable circumstances. In other words, their talent was a necessary but not sufficient condition for great success.

    It's perhaps similar to what has been said about sex: to turn out really well, it requires both experience and enthusiasm, and no amount of one can compensate for a complete lack of the other. :-)

    1. Re:I just finished the book ... by nine-times · · Score: 1

      It seems to me the kernel of his argument is that they had inherent talent, but became truly exceptional owing to a combination of favorable circumstances. In other words, their talent was a necessary but not sufficient condition for great success.

      I haven't read the book yet, but that sounds roughly correct to me. It seems like people who are successful have a tendency to emphasize the part their own innate abilities played in creating that success, while people who aren't successful tend to overemphasize luck and circumstance.

      From my own experiences, from my own successes and failures and knowing some very successful and very unsuccessful people, I would formulate it like this: Someone could hand you success on silver platter, and you still won't be able to hold onto it unless you have some raw ability, a real willingness to work hard, and the wisdom to grab onto the right opportunity when it comes along. On the other hand, anyone with any considerable success has had some moments of opportunity where, if those moments had not presented themselves, that person wouldn't have had their successes.

    2. Re:I just finished the book ... by sympathy · · Score: 1

      What about people who work really hard and never get anywhere, or people who are handed success for no reason and run with it, or people who are lazy but steal from others and become successful, or people who are prevented from having any success due to circumstances beyond their control in life, such as tradition, societal expectations, government restriction, etc.

    3. Re:I just finished the book ... by syphax · · Score: 1

      Just read it recently as well.

      I think your summary is correct. I don't think Gladwell did a particularly good job wrapping up the rest of the book, which was otherwise excellent. I feel like he got too worn out or ran out of time before being able to put together a concise conclusion.

      --
      Simple Unexpected Concrete Credible Emotional Stories
    4. Re:I just finished the book ... by EastCoastSurfer · · Score: 1

      What about people who work really hard and never get anywhere

      If you do some reading on the '10,000 hour rule' it is addressed. Basically you need to spend your time working hard AND smart. The best example is Tiger woods and his 'directed' practices. He doesn't go out and hit 6" putts for 8 hours/day. He works hard and making himself better and what parts of the game his is poor at. The classic story is how he will go into a bunker and hit 200+ shots with the ball completely buried even though he might only hit that shot once/year while on tour. That's directed practice though.

      people who are handed success for no reason and run with it

      Running with it means that person has some ability.

      people who are lazy but steal from others and become successful

      Show me someone who is truly lazy and is also successful. I remember when Allen Iverson was given crap for ripping on practice. Many people took that as he's lazy and he doesn't practice. The funny thing is that I bet very few days have gone by in his years of playing basketball that he did not have a basketball in his hands.

      people who are prevented from having any success due to circumstances beyond their control in life, such as tradition, societal expectations, government restriction, etc

      Most restrictions are self-imposed. Obviously if you want to be successful at something illegal it could be hard (although highly financially rewarding).

      In the end these are all just excuses for why someone thinks they are not as successful as they should be. Instead of looking for excuses, someone should identify what they could do differently and try it instead.

    5. Re:I just finished the book ... by nine-times · · Score: 2, Insightful

      What about people who work really hard and never get anywhere, or people who are handed success for no reason and run with it...or people who are prevented from having any success due to circumstances beyond their control in life

      I think a lot of this was already addressed in my post, but maybe not spelled out very well. What I'm saying is that you can't have real success handed to you, at least not exactly. You could come from a rich family and be given lots of money, but unless you have some raw talent, some willingness to work, and a good sense of which opportunities to take, then the most you can do is sit on your pile of money. You won't accomplish anything for yourself. Lots of people have fewer opportunities and still accomplish a lot with what they have. But still, you can only take the opportunities that are open to you, and some people aren't given many opportunities.

      Mostly what I'm trying to get across, though, is that I've known plenty of people who seem to be pretty unsuccessful by their own measures, but the problem wasn't a lack of opportunity. I've seen people where they say they want to go someplace, they get the opportunity to get to that place, and they don't grab the opportunity when it's there. They blame their circumstances, the fact that things aren't easy, the roadblocks in their way, but they don't take the opportunities in front of them.

      At the same time, I've known quite a few people who are fairly successful and at any point in conversation they can squeeze it in, they talk about how they did it all themselves. They talk about how smart they were and how hard-working, and lecture everyone on what we should do if we want to be successful too. The one thing they tend not to mention, however, is how if one event-- something beyond their control-- had happened differently, they might be bigger failures than the people they're lecturing.

      What I've gathered from these observations is that you can't necessarily judge people by their current state of "success"-- insofar as "success" is a position or an amount of money. If someone is actively accomplishing impressive things, however, that does tell you something. Failure doesn't necessarily tell you anything, unless you actually know them well enough to see why they're failing and know the opportunities that they're passing up.

      And what I'd try to advise is that people watch for opportunities, and try to muster the courage to take opportunities when they present themselves.

    6. Re:I just finished the book ... by Arthur+Grumbine · · Score: 1

      It's perhaps similar to what has been said about sex: to turn out really well, it requires both experience and enthusiasm, and no amount of one can compensate for a complete lack of the other. :-)

      Given your audience, perhaps a car analogy would have been better...

      --
      Now that I think about it, I'm pretty sure everything I just said is completely wrong.
  13. Intelligence by Profane+MuthaFucka · · Score: 2, Funny

    I agree that intelligence is overrated and interest is key. But you have to have a certain level of intelligence for some pursuits, I think. If you don't have enough intelligence, you have an insurmountable handicap. But once you have enough intelligence, then more intelligence won't help you much. You need to WORK.

    This explains why the "losers" in high school didn't become physicists, or cosmologists, but they eventually succeeded at normal occupations. Even though they might not have had as many brains as the smartest, they had enough brains for any normal occupation. And they worked very hard.

    The lesson that I draw from this is that I SHOULD have boned that somewhat stupid girl in 10th grade, because she turned out hot and successful even though she wasn't an honors student.

    --
    Fascism trolls keeping me up every night. When I starts a preachin', he HITS ME WITH HIS REICH!
    1. Re:Intelligence by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      perhaps she turned out hot and successful BECAUSE you didn't bone her

    2. Re:Intelligence by Profane+MuthaFucka · · Score: 1

      Are you saying that the set of hot women and the set of women I've boned have a null intersection set?

      --
      Fascism trolls keeping me up every night. When I starts a preachin', he HITS ME WITH HIS REICH!
  14. Nobel Prize winning physicists from a valley... by lyapunov · · Score: 2, Interesting

    In the book "The making of the Atomic Bomb" the author, Richard Rhodes, points out something very much like this.
     
    One might think that the distribution of Nobel Prize winning physicists might have a normal distribution, but there is a valley in Hungary (if I remember the book correctly) that has an inordinate amount of Nobel Prize winners.
     
      He makes the case that their elementary level education had a role in this. Students were doing inventive things on their own in math and science at a very early age. As a result, a more natural and internal approach to these subjects followed them through life and put them in a better position to do ground-breaking research.

    By the way, if you have not read "The Making of the Atomic Bomb" I highly recommend it. Not just because of its account of the events of the Manhattan Project, but also because it goes into the philosophy of the 1800's which resulted in the pursuit of bigger, better weapons to rage "Total War". The chemical weapons of WWI were a result of this as well.

    --

    Either give it away or get top dollar, but never sell yourself cheap.
  15. Gates Not Important by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0
    that's not a review, that's a synopsis. and slashvertisement. feh

    the "review" mentions Gates too much. he's not that important to Mr. Gladwell's thesis - i believe Gladwell threw Gates in solely for name recognition (seems to be working here)

    besides, it was mildly amusing to read about little Billy and little Paulie sneaking about Seattle in the dark looking for a little terminal time wherever they could get it - geeks in their pupal stage. no mention is made of their later exploits as older non-geek business dorks

    good book, bad review

  16. Non-sequitur by Locke2005 · · Score: 2, Funny

    Prof. Oppenheimer, on the other hand ascended to work on the Manhattan Project though in graduate school he had tried to poison his adviser.The difference is... an extreme personability in Oppenheimer, which is said to show that success is not a function of hard work or even genius but more of likability and the ability to empathize. I don't know about you, but trying to poison your adviser doesn't sound like evidence of "extreme personability", "likability", or "ability to empathize" to me. Sounds more like "being a sociopath" is an important contributing factor to success! "Lickability", on the other hand, is an important contributing factor in choosing a significant other.

    --
    I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    1. Re:Non-sequitur by im_thatoneguy · · Score: 1

      Based on stories I've heard from many post-graduate friends--poisoning your advisor might be a sensible course of action.

      Remember they're the one who decides whether or not you get your degree. If they for some reason have a grudge against you there's nothing you can do but start over.

      After spending 3 years of your life on something only to have someone tell you "No." for seemingly vindictive reasons I could imagine a likeable person getting a little vindictive themselves. :D

    2. Re:Non-sequitur by fumblebruschi · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Well, what that actually shows, I think, is that Oppenheimer was very, very good at talking his way out of trouble. Consider that after he tried to murder his graduate advisor, all that happened to him was that he had to see a psychiatrist for the 1920s equivalent of anger management. He received no other punishment and in fact he completed his graduate work at the same university.

      Consider further that General Groves selected him to run the Manhattan Project even though he had all the following black marks against him: he was only 38, and would have to be in charge of many people senior to him; he was a theoretical physicist, and would have to be in charge of applied scientists; he had no administrative experience whatever; he had no mechanical aptitude at all and was helpless with the simplest machine; he was a leftist and all his friends were open Communists; and oh yeah, he tried to murder his graduate advisor. The lesson: it's really important to be a good interview.

    3. Re:Non-sequitur by Locke2005 · · Score: 1

      And if you can't be a good interview, at least try to do a good interview!

      --
      I've abandoned my search for truth; now I'm just looking for some useful delusions.
    4. Re:Non-sequitur by Scott+Carnahan · · Score: 1

      The strikes against Oppenheimer were relatively minor (seriously, age??), and Gladwell, as usual, neglected to mention contravening evidence, presumably in an attempt to reinforce the chosen narrative. Oppenheimer's contributions to quantum mechanics and nuclear physics even at that time were absolutely huge - he wasn't some average theoretical physicist. He was well-known to have unusually keen perspective on problem-solving, and was quick to grasp the import aspects of new ideas. It seems kind of incongruous to point to some lack of administrative experience but downplay his people skills as just a tool he uses to glad-hand the power structure into giving him a job. The people skills he had were exactly what they wanted.

      --
      "Your notation sucks!" -- Serge Lang (1927-2005)
    5. Re:Non-sequitur by Kyont · · Score: 1

      "Lickability", on the other hand, is an important contributing factor in choosing a significant other.

      Agreed! I had to lick quite a few people, in all kinds of unusual places, before I found my tasty spouse.

      --
      You shall see a cow on the roof of a cotton house.
  17. Already discussed on Slashdot by prakslash · · Score: 1


    Please read the comments here before rehashing them.

  18. hardwork, luck, determination, skill by Em+Emalb · · Score: 1

    not necessarily in that order.

    --
    Sent from your iPad.
  19. How does this compare to Charles Murray's work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Namely, The Bell Curve and Human Achievement, which came to largely different conclusions, including a strong statistical case that heredity is responsible for 40-60% of human achievement?

    1. Re:How does this compare to Charles Murray's work by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Outliers is sophomoric rubbish.

      He attributes Asian success to linguistic differences yet 2nd-3rd generation Asian immigrants with little to no knowledge of their native tongue retain the same high achievement.

      Nobody wants to admit that there are reasons that are biologically defined that could determine why someone is more successful or not.

      This isn't to say that luck and dedication don't play a role, but the author here greatly misstates his case.

  20. I remember when Slashdot refused to link to Amazon by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Amazon is the original patent troll. You should vote with your money and buy this book anywhere else. And definitely don't buy using Slashdot's link, since Slashdot will get a kickback for that, and Slashdot evidently supports patent trolls such as Amazon.com and the recent attempt by Software Tree to sue RedHat.

  21. huh? by XanC · · Score: 1

    a so-called culture of honor, such as that found in the South were people of necessity had nothing but their reputations

    Before the war, the South was the rich half of the country.

    1. Re:huh? by SageinaRage · · Score: 1

      That money was only in the hands of a fairly small amount of plantation owners, though. The large majority of residents were poor white farmers.

    2. Re:huh? by Gizzmonic · · Score: 1

      Before the war, the South was the rich half of the country.

      No. In every measurable way, the North was far ahead of the South (GDP, industrial output, mean, and median wealth). Many economists have argued (and quite convincingly, in fact) that chattel slavery helped promote a stagnant, stratified economy.

      --
      (-1, Raw and Uncut is the only way to read)
    3. Re:huh? by fumblebruschi · · Score: 1

      That's not really true. Before the war, the South had many wealthy individuals, but remember that their economy was entirely agricultural and they were totally dependent on only three cash crops (tobacco, sugar, and cotton.) By contrast, the North was heavily industrialized, had a much larger population, and had a much more diverse economy, and thus a much broader tax base. In fact, among the reasons the North won the war is that they were so much better financed.

    4. Re:huh? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Frederick Douglass came to the same conclusion the first time he was in the North. He expected the North to be poor because they actually had to pay for their labor.

    5. Re:huh? by genner · · Score: 1

      In fact, among the reasons the North won the war is that they were so much better financed.

      That argument isn't worth a confederate dollar.....wait.

    6. Re:huh? by spacey · · Score: 1

      And the north had pizza.

      -Peter

      --
      == Just my opinion(s)
  22. Great book, I recommend it by ejsing · · Score: 1

    I've recently read the book, and I found it very interesting. It is well written and the author stays focused throughout the book.

    The author argues convincingly for his views and presents multiple examples to back up his ideas. Personally I was intrigued by his idea that people are not born geniuses but are made genius through a series of random events falling out their way. The author doesn't argue that there is no such thing as inherited intelligence nor that everyones faith is determined purely by chance - rather he argues that the outcome is a fine balance between the two effects. To become successful you need high intelligence (on multiple levels) and the right opportunities (which constitute the element of chance).

    From a philosophical (or religious) stand point you may not agree with his views, but the book is still a very good read and I highly recommend it.

  23. Agreed completely by digiti · · Score: 1

    Just finished the book too and loved it (same for both of his previous books). The book does say that you can succeed by your own merit but the *scale* of your success depends on your "history" or ancestry.
    Personally my favorite part was the last chapter about Daisy which I found personal and very touching.

  24. Malcolm Gladwell by MyDixieWrecked · · Score: 3, Informative

    I've seen Malcolm Gladwell do talks about 3 or 4 times and he's very engaging as both a speaker and a writer. I got a free copy of his previous book, Blink, which is about how people can "thin-slice" their experiences and make snap judgements based on gut feelings. I twas a fascinating read, but the only problem that I have with his writing style is that it occasionally gets painfully repetitive. He'll make a point, support it with an argument, make the point again, support it some more, revisit the point and give a summary of his previous arguments, then make more arguments to support his point.

    I've been meaning to read Tipping Point and Outliers for a while, but I dunno. I feel like I get a lot more out of his talks (he goes off on tangents, frequently) than I got out of Blink.

    --



    ...spike
    Ewwwwww, coconut...
    1. Re:Malcolm Gladwell by mevans · · Score: 1

      Read Tipping Point and Outliers. I've found Blink to be the weakest of the three, and I think that if you liked Blink you'll certainly like the others.

    2. Re:Malcolm Gladwell by Arthur+Grumbine · · Score: 1

      ...but the only problem that I have with his writing style is that it occasionally gets painfully repetitive. He'll make a point, support it with an argument, make the point again, support it some more, revisit the point and give a summary of his previous arguments, then make more arguments to support his point.

      I, too, hate thorough discussion of an interesting point. I would much rather he appealed to -- OMG A SQUIRREL!! BRB!!

      --
      Now that I think about it, I'm pretty sure everything I just said is completely wrong.
  25. This is an ancient debate by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Did the times make Napoleon, or did Napoleon make the times.

    A new book isn't going to settle the debate.

  26. It depends what you mean by success. by mosb1000 · · Score: 1

    Bill Gates was successful at holding back the software industry and costing us all billions of dollars though needlessly aggressive tactics and the inability of his business model to produce usable software. I wouldn't consider that a success. I suppose it depends what you're trying to accomplish.

    1. Re:It depends what you mean by success. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      He also had a great talent for hiring ethically challenged people to work for him.

  27. hockey players born during the same months... by Em+Emalb · · Score: 1

    From what I understand, (not Canadian) a lot of that has to do with age-based leagues in Canadian Jr hockey. A 6yr old kid who is born in Feb, for example, has to wait until the next season to play because "they're not old enough" age-wise for the league that requires you to be at least 6 years and 6 months to play.

    So they're older (or the inverse is true) when they start in that particular league.

    Something like that. I hope one of our Canadian members can either blow that theory out of the water or back it, one or the other. ;)

    --
    Sent from your iPad.
  28. Chance versus merit by starfishsystems · · Score: 1

    If we accept the thesis of the book, it offers a refreshing counterpoint to the popular stereotype of "rags to riches" that is too often held up as an achievable ideal.

    What's wrong with encouraging people to work hard in order to be successful and famous? Nothing, except that it may be substantially based on a false premise. Sure, hard work is generally (though not always) necessary but it may well prove insufficient. And that's the part that always seems to be overlooked when we celebrate the extraordinary success of a famous individual.

    People don't always achieve their dreams, especially if the achievement is statistically improbable. Chance plays a dominant role in the improbable cases. And so, for every single welfare mum who went on to make billions from a book series about a young wizard, there are perhaps hundreds of thousands of welfare mums who have to accept that their most inspired and courageous efforts will probably go unremarked and unrewarded.

    Merit is fine, something to be cultivated and rewarded. But success is not proof of merit, and failure should not be cause for censure. That sort of neocon thinking is too simplistic by far.

    --
    Parity: What to do when the weekend comes.
  29. The Instrinsic Failure of Studying Success by mpapet · · Score: 1

    By studying successful people without some external reference, one is able to pick and choose traits as one pleases to define success.

    In the business world, I would argue access to capital and no compassion, regard for others, and absence of a sense of guilt are the best indicators. See this vague definition of sociopathy http://www.mcafee.cc/Bin/sb.html

    In the entertainment world there are **LOTS** of musicians putting in this hypothetical 10,000 hours. Practice/performing only takes one so far. Most of this mythic "10,000 hour club" end up as music teachers.

    Bottom line: grouping "successful people" is a values-driven specifically unscientific exercise.

    --
    http://www.maxineudall.com/2010/02/should-economists-be-sued-for-malpractice.html
    1. Re:The Instrinsic Failure of Studying Success by Dripdry · · Score: 1

      IMHO mod parent insightful. As someone who works in a job that can rely on both technical acumen and business charm, the charm wins out frequently. Charm seems to work the most with people who are most in need of advice (the ones who are most in denial about their situation.)

      It's amazing to me how showing data to someone in black and white, or giving them straight-ahead professional advice rarely wins out over someone who can just smile no matter what and take someone's money with little or no justification for their actions.

      The majority of persons I know in my position are just MBAs or salespeople who can smile and get along with people with little interest in technical details (and there are A LOT). It's terrifying and baffling to me. If one is going to orchestrate peoples' goals and finances elegantly it requires more than a smile and a handshake.

      More to the point:
      Is Feynman right about charm vs. smarts? Probably, and that's a hard pill to swallow for an analytic who doesn't even *enjoy* getting along with many people.

      A friend of mine once quipped, in 4th grade no less, that there seem to be fewer and fewer nice people in the world every day. Maybe this explains why. If you *seem* charming and empathetic you can get by. If you actually are you may be spending too many resources to look "successful".

      It is what it is.

      --
      -
  30. About Bill Gates by renoX · · Score: 1

    I think that everybody agree that Bill Gates has made his fortune through his business skills and luck not because of his programming skills.
    So he may have spent 10,000 hours programming but this doesn't mean that he is a programming genius..

    1. Re:About Bill Gates by dspart · · Score: 0

      Having spent 10k+ hours programming, I am now far from a programming genius. The more you gnow...

    2. Re:About Bill Gates by NewWorldDan · · Score: 1

      Bill was probably a damn good programmer. His success, however, was purely a matter of luck and good timing. However, his programming put him in position to be there. In what may be the greatest business move of all time, he bought someone else's operating system very cheaply and licensed it to IBM. This was made possible because someone with a better product wouldn't sign a NDA.

      Most successful people are successful by their own merit. To reach that next level takes a lot of luck and usually involves being the right person in the right place at the right time. Most people wouldn't have been able to put that business deal together and get IBM to agree to a license for it.

  31. Half of everything is luck, James by sympathy · · Score: 1

    Wow you mean to say that life is mostly about random chance and luck than anything resembling an ordered plan? Holy crap. mind=blown. Gonna have to think about this for a spell. In the mean time, why don't you calculate for me the number of genetic variations that could have happened at birth that would have made you a completely different person. It can't be more than 5 or 6.

  32. language differences by sleepdev · · Score: 1

    some of these assertions seem questionable, but the asian language relation to math is very true. In math and related subjects you really start to see the value of ideogram based writing systems over purely phonetic alphabets. here is a perfect example from japanese: convex = å http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/%E5%87%B8 concave = å http://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/%E5%87%B9 which is easier to remember or understand?

    1. Re:language differences by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What about the Asian students that were born and raised on American soil, and do not speak, read, or write any of the native Asian languages? They are basically American just like any other ethnic race (white, black, hispanic, asian, etc.)

      They have perfected their English language communications. But yet, some of these students still excel at math and science, just like any other hard working students.

      Do these students still have any genetic or societal advantage here? I doubt it.

      A lot of one's success is more tied to their upbringing, family wealth, family support and encouragement, and internal desire and motivation.

    2. Re:language differences by vrmlguy · · Score: 1

      I thought that those were the ideograms for male and female.

      --
      Nothing for 6-digit uids?
  33. Outliers fall on both sides of the spectrum by MrEricSir · · Score: 5, Funny

    Someone needs to write a book about total failures, and what NOT to do with your life. I fear it may involve people who spend all day posting on Slashdot.

    --
    There's no -1 for "I don't get it."
    1. Re:Outliers fall on both sides of the spectrum by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Depends on your definition of success. It goes back to the businessman and the fisherman story that is frequently related in business texts: A businessman meets a fisherman and asks him how he can just sit there in a boat and be happy. The fisherman replies that he enjoys fishing and living quietly with his family far away from civilization. The businessman says that he should turn his love of fishing into an enterprise, and become a worldwide supplier of fish who is obscenely rich. The fisherman asks what he would do after that. The businessman thinks about it for a second, smiles, and says he would go buy himself a house far away from civilization, and quietly live with his family while fishing everyday.
      If you are happy reading about the latest tech news and commenting on the various pitfalls of politics and courts, a whole load of money is not going to make you much happier, as you will be just doing the same thing again, except sitting on a lot of essentially useless money that you wasted your time acquiring.

    2. Re:Outliers fall on both sides of the spectrum by CaptainStumpy · · Score: 1

      failblog.org has a nice list of total failure

      --
      It will be better to purchase from an owner who is a good farmer and a good builder.
    3. Re:Outliers fall on both sides of the spectrum by corbettw · · Score: 1
      --
      God invented whiskey so the Irish would not rule the world.
    4. Re:Outliers fall on both sides of the spectrum by TheRedSeven · · Score: 1

      I highly recommend How to Ruin your Life by Ben Stein.

      Excellent read and somewhat motivational. And, of course, it has Ben Stein's great wit throughout.

    5. Re:Outliers fall on both sides of the spectrum by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

      Someone needs to write a book about total failures, and what NOT to do with your life. I fear it may involve people who spend all day posting on Slashdot.

      Easy. Any article on Fark.com with the Florida tag.

    6. Re:Outliers fall on both sides of the spectrum by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      See "Banvard's Folly: Thirteen Tales of Renowned Obscurity, Famous Anonymity, and Rotten Luck", by Paul Collins

      "Sometimes things don't exactly work out. Schemes collapse, experiments fail, luck runs out, or times and tastes simply change. It's a cliche that history is written by winners--but it's important to remember that it's usually written about winners, too. Paul Collins changes that, highlighting the failures, the frauds, and the forgotten in Banvard's Folly."

    7. Re:Outliers fall on both sides of the spectrum by MadMidnightBomber · · Score: 1
      --
      "It doesn't cost enough, and it makes too much sense."
    8. Re:Outliers fall on both sides of the spectrum by Heliode · · Score: 1

      How to Be Totally Miserable: A Self-Hinder Book!

      http://www.amazon.com/How-Be-Totally-Miserable-Self-Hinder/dp/1570087245

      --
      Fox can take the sky from you.
    9. Re:Outliers fall on both sides of the spectrum by FrankDerKte · · Score: 1

      As someone pointed out before, perhaps the real indicator for success is happiness. Then again, I got hit by a car three month ago. In Hospital they kept asking how bad my pain was on a scale from 0 to 10. The pain I would have rated 10 before the accident was a 3 after. That's probably the real answer to being happy, just go down as far as it goes, and in the end the scale has moved and you will be happy.

  34. Mr. Anecdote by blamanj · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I've decided that Malcolm Gladwell is a storyteller. As such, he learns what stories resonate with people, and because he's a good storyteller, he's become very successful at spinning his tales.

    While I haven't read Outliers, I did read "Blink" and found that while he provided lots of anecdotes to support his premise, there was no mechanism, no measurement, and no way to verify it. In fact, he provided a number of other anecdotes that showed just the opposite.

    What he did in that book, I think, was to state a premise that we'd like to believe, that our gut instincts are right, and tell stories to reinforce that, but never go so far as to make a claim that could be verified. I'm not alone in this view.

    Based on what I've read so far, "Outliers" seems like more of the same.

    1. Re:Mr. Anecdote by mrgarci1 · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Actually, I'm almost done with Outliers and there is a fair amount of scientific evidence (as well as the usual anecdotes), especially with regard to things like relative age. More evidence than he used in his previous books, anyway.

    2. Re:Mr. Anecdote by RyLaN · · Score: 1

      I did read "Blink" and found that while he provided lots of anecdotes to support his premise, there was no mechanism, no measurement, and no way to verify it. In fact, he provided a number of other anecdotes that showed just the opposite.

      What he did in that book, I think, was to state a premise that we'd like to believe, that our gut instincts are right, and tell stories to reinforce that, but never go so far as to make a claim that could be verified. I'm not alone in this view.

      Based on what I've read so far, "Outliers" seems like more of the same.

      You might be interested in Antonio Damasio's book "Descarte's Error" in which Damasio scientifically presents evidence that the majority of our reasoning is in fact mediated by emotion and "gut feeling" linked to situational stimulus. Damage to the pre-frontal cortex of the brain (see: Phineas Gage) impairs this "secondary" emotional system and causes quantifiable decision-making deficits. Gladwell is referring to just this system in Blink, and although he does occaisionally lapse into pop-sci there is a significant body of work that supports his main conclusions.

      As another interesting aside, this is why teenagers have such a poor time making good long-term decisions. The pre-frontal cortex is one the last places in the brain to fully mylleinate (develop), and so their emotion-based reasoning system does not fully come on line until they are 18-22. As the insurance commercial goes: Why do teenagers driver like they're missing a part of their brain? Because they are.

      --
      At least the war on the environment is going well
    3. Re:Mr. Anecdote by mevans · · Score: 1

      Indeed, Outliers has much more empirical or statistical evidence than the others. Quite satisfying to those of us who felt Blink was too anecdotal.

    4. Re:Mr. Anecdote by GregGardner · · Score: 1

      I have read Outliers, but haven't yet read Blink or the Tipping Point, and I have to say that your assumptions of how Outliers is structured are spot on.

      As a human, I found many of the anecdotes in the book very interesting and they all seemed to confirm the point that he was trying to make. But as an engineer, I found it unfortunate that he spent almost no time critically evaluating any of his points, even when there were obvious objections or alternative explanations that could be explored and possibly debunked, making his point that much more convincing. Instead, he spent lots of time setting up these somewhat weak arguments and moving onto the next point without playing devil's advocate at all.

      I think this lack of vetting ultimately hurts the points he tries to make in his book, but I think overall that the anecdotes are interesting enough to make the book a worthwhile read. If he was a scientist attempting to convince other scientists of his theories, I would say that he failed miserably. However, Gladwell is not a scientist, he's an author trying to write an entertaining non-fiction book through storytelling, and I think he successfully achieves this goal.

  35. Of course external factors are important by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Life is ultimately chaotic and pointless.

    You can be the right person in the wrong place at the wrong time. You can do everything right and still get fucked. Such is life as they say.

    But at the end of the day, given the ups and downs of life, those with the internal fires, the entrepreneurial spirit, and the smarts will do better over time.

  36. Re:first post by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    not this time... apparently you need at least 10,000 hours of practice before you will get a frosty every time. good luck!

  37. Heh, by sympathy · · Score: 1

    Hell yeah bro, totally. *high five*

  38. Circumstance by castorvx · · Score: 0

    Success is a combination of luck and initiative. It is very important that everyone in our society realizes how important the former is. It might help our society to realize that even when people do everything correctly, they can end up in awful situations, and that the opposite is true: Plenty of hacks end up wealthy and successful.

    It sickens me when some moderately successful individual makes a comment such as, "I don't want to pay for that guy's [insert social service]. I work my ass off and he doesn't."

    It is deplorable! That person could be you!

    "There but for the grace of god go I." - John Bradford

    That statement could probably be amended slightly, but you get the point.

  39. To quote the Bard... by mr_mischief · · Score: 2, Insightful

    "Be not afraid of greatness: some are born great, some achieve greatness and some have greatness thrust upon them." (Twelfth Night, Act 2, Scene 5)

    It's quite plain to see that the author is talking about greatness. If he's well read, he should know the idea that some are bound to greatness by chance was written long ago.

    Explaining some of the happenings of chance that confer this effect is a useful goal. Perhaps knowing more ways to improve one's odds at greatness will allow more people to improve them. Perhaps it will even allow more great breakthroughs.

    We all in the modern world stand on the shoulders of giants. Some of us put that to better use than others. Some of us by chance are given different giants, too.

    Sure, a Chinese or Japanese child may have an easier number system to learn. A European or American child, though, has a much smaller and simpler alphabet. People born with safe running water and household electrical current live a life different from people who spend part of their time hauling water and burn candles or kerosene lamps for light. Which child do you expect to write the next great computer application? It's probably not one who has think about getting power to cook his food. It'll probably be a child who doesn't have to worry about power for his computer.

    Of all those who have most of the advantages of a Bill Gates or a Warren Buffet, how many actually take advantage of all of them?

    1. Re:To quote the Bard... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sure, a Chinese or Japanese child may have an easier number system to learn.

      While I completely agree with the sentiment of your post, this was a poor choice of example: the Japanese have two different ways of counting (one native, one borrowed from the chinese), and have to conjugate the words differently depending on what you are counting (cups are different from bottles are different from animals are different from people, etc.)

    2. Re:To quote the Bard... by mr_mischief · · Score: 1

      Actually, learning two counting systems may help or hinder math skills. I'm not sure which would happen. It certainly seems like the different conjugations based on the nature of the objects would hinder communicating ideas about numbers, though, especially to people speaking other languages. Thanks for pointing that out.

  40. Success = skill + will + timing by hellfire · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It seems to me the lesson is that you not only need to be smart, but you need to be willing to do the work to find opportunities, and willing to act upon them. Also, you need to have a little luck to be in the right place at the right time.

    Not to beat a very bad fanboi cliche to death, but Steve Jobs vs Bill Gates. Steve saw an opportunity to sell a computer to the masses in the 70s and kick start the personal computer market. Bill saw an opportunity to tie his DOS to the IBM PC when he saw more business people wanted the PC over an Apple II. Steve saw the opportunity to create a graphical UI after visiting PARC and find a way to sell it, but wasn't nearly successful this time, because conditions were not in his favor (thanks to Bill Gates well timed opportunity). Bill then copied Steve's project and used his previous well timed success to do what Steve didn't quite have the leverage to do, get the GUI out to the masses.

    Also look at Steve recognizing the market for ripping and mixing CDs, and the coming of the MP3, to create a music player at the right time that's easy to use, and to come up with a marketing plan that made everyone want it.

    Both these men have skills and experience I'll never have. But they'd be nothing if the opportunity didn't arise. They'd be even less if the opportunity did arise, and no one took advantage of it. They'd just be here like the rest of us pontificating on how some other guy is a genius or not, struggling to install their copy of Ubuntu or something.

    I guess my point is that this isn't something entirely new. This sounds like another book about the butterfly effect, so I'm not sure how useful it would be, though I'm sure its interesting entertainment.

    --

    "All great wisdom is contained in .signature files"

    1. Re:Success = skill + will + timing by mph_sd · · Score: 1

      It seems to me the lesson is that you not only need to be smart, but you need to be willing to do the work to find opportunities, and willing to act upon them. Also, you need to have a little luck to be in the right place at the right time.

      Not to beat a very bad fanboi cliche to death, but Steve Jobs vs Bill Gates. Steve saw an opportunity to sell a computer to the masses in the 70s and kick start the personal computer market. Bill saw an opportunity to tie his DOS to the IBM PC when he saw more business people wanted the PC over an Apple II. Steve saw the opportunity to create a graphical UI after visiting PARC and find a way to sell it, but wasn't nearly successful this time, because conditions were not in his favor (thanks to Bill Gates well timed opportunity). Bill then copied Steve's project and used his previous well timed success to do what Steve didn't quite have the leverage to do, get the GUI out to the masses.

      Also look at Steve recognizing the market for ripping and mixing CDs, and the coming of the MP3, to create a music player at the right time that's easy to use, and to come up with a marketing plan that made everyone want it.

      Both these men have skills and experience I'll never have. But they'd be nothing if the opportunity didn't arise. They'd be even less if the opportunity did arise, and no one took advantage of it. They'd just be here like the rest of us pontificating on how some other guy is a genius or not, struggling to install their copy of Ubuntu or something.

      I guess my point is that this isn't something entirely new. This sounds like another book about the butterfly effect, so I'm not sure how useful it would be, though I'm sure its interesting entertainment.

      The thing is, we don't what would have happened if the opportunities presented to Steve Jobs and Bill Gates didn't pan out. They might have seized entirely different opportunities.

      It's impossible to predict the future, and impossible to predict what would have happened in the past if something had happened differently.

  41. skill and objectives by Onymous+Coward · · Score: 1

    ...he darn well clawed his way to the top through skill as much as luck I think, and I have a lot of respect for that.

    I hope you're respecting the skill part, not the clawing part. We should make sure to disentangle the two.

    For example, there might have a brilliantly talented and trained placekicker, but we might not want to respect his kicking babies. Regardless of how well the babies go sailing.

  42. Steve Martin would have made another great chapter by toddlisonbee · · Score: 2, Interesting

    I read Malcolm Gladwell's book about a month ago and I just finished Steve Martin's new book, Born Standing Up, this morning. What I found remarkable was that Steve Martin's book exactly parallels the process that Malcolm Gladwell talks about.

    Steve Martin's book begins:

    "I did stand-up comedy for eighteen years. Ten of those years were spent learning, four years were spent refining, and four were spent in wild success."

    There are other parallels such as having the opportunity to work at Disneyland from a young age and being exposed to performance and magic tricks. The most important point is that Steve Martin spent years and years refining his craft.

    ----

    Also, interesting is this very positive review of Gladwell's book by Tomas Sowell, an ultra-conservative economist (Gladwell is an obvious liberal)
    http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=5384/

  43. Some of the reasoning in this book is suspect. by kybur · · Score: 5, Interesting
    I finished reading this book last month. As a former airline pilot, I take some issue with Gladwell's explanations of these aviation incidents.

    1) Gladwell's description of the mechanics windshear was inaccurate. Perhaps he understood what he was saying when he wrote it, but the way it reads sound s like he is saying that when a plane is flying into a headwind, the pilots need to use more power, and then if that headwind shears to a tail wind, all of a sudden, the plane is going too fast to land. This is really the opposite of what is true. Pilots don't really care so much about their ground speed as they approach the runway, only their airspeed. You don't use more power going into a head wind, because using more power would increase your airspeed. On really windy days, you can get small airplanes to track backwards over the ground, but they still have a positive airspeed within the normal operating limits. If a headwind shears to a tail wind, you don't have too much momentum, you have too little airspeed.

    2) The idea that these non-US countries were less safe to fly in because of their culture of not questioning superiors is also questionable. Each airline has a corporate which ends up defining how crew members interact. Guess what, 40+ years ago, the corporate culture in the airlines in this country (USA) was similar to Korean Air's culture 15 years ago. The US airlines made a point to change their cultures, and safety was enhanced greatly. When the US consultants when to Korean Air, the same thing happened there. But there is no reason to say that the unsafe culture was do to Korean philosophies -- just a less modern attitude toward cockpit resource management.

    3) Controlled flight into terrain (CFIT) accidents are always awful to read about. I think Malcolm missed the really big explanation for the CFIT crash that he describes. Historically, the ground proximity warning systems in large aircraft were not vary accurate at all. They were based mostly on rates of change of radar altitude, and were highly prone to calling out warnings when there was no problem, just spurious readings from the radar altimeter. As a result, pilots learned to not take advice from these units seriously. If they had, the accident Gladwell discusses certainly would not have happened. Modern enhanced ground proximity warning systems (eGPWS) use GPS and a database of obstructions, and are very reliable. With a reliable instrument, comes trust, and a pilot today, getting a warning from eGPWS is far less likely to make the same mistake.

    If there are so many basic reasoning problems with chapter 7, how many problems are there in chapters outside my areas of expertise?

    All this said, I'd recommend the book, it's a NYT bestseller, and it is very well written and thought provoking. It's provoking this discussion, and thats what a good book should do.

    1. Re:Some of the reasoning in this book is suspect. by Zak3056 · · Score: 1

      Pilots don't really care so much about their ground speed as they approach the runway, only their airspeed. You don't use more power going into a head wind, because using more power would increase your airspeed.

      I have not read the book in question, so you might be addressing two separate things here, and I certainly have FAR fewer hours than you must (given your statement that you hold a commercial certificate) but the above appears as if you are missing an elementary point: on approach you DO need more power when dealing with a headwind--the extra power isn't used to increase your airspeed, but to lower the rate of descent. If you flew the same approach in a dead calm vs 10kts of headwind, you'd never make the runway.

      I will grant the rest of your point though. If you go from 10kts to headwind to 10kts of tailwind on short final, your ground speed will be too high... but NOT because you were carrying too much power.

      --
      What part of "shall not be infringed" is so hard to understand?
    2. Re:Some of the reasoning in this book is suspect. by Smidgin · · Score: 1

      Sounds like you were Dan Browned

    3. Re:Some of the reasoning in this book is suspect. by kybur · · Score: 1
      Your right of course. I was oversimplifying my description, to get to my wind shear point. A standard descent angle is about 3 degrees, and you would need to tweak power to maintain this.

      The mechanics of wind shear is not particularly related to your descent angle to the airport.

    4. Re:Some of the reasoning in this book is suspect. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is from the reviewer, lmalinofsky at gmail dot com. I am a pilot too (commercial SEL instrument airplane) with about 1000 hours in most recently a Mooney 201. Did you notice the gross mistake of referring to a glide slope several times as a glide SCOPE? Geez, not enough editors are pilots, I'm thinking.

  44. 10,000 hour bullshit by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Thanks to this book, now I have had to deal with the inverse of the 10,000 hour 'rule', which is being told "if you haven't been doing something for 10,000 you don't know anything about it".

  45. By Neruos by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Success is logical as in randomality, but it also has to do with the person pursuing it. If you have a person who is focused, driven, has a desire and a vision to succeed, then success can be achieved in one(1) of three(3) ways of randomality.

    1. Person has access to wealth, supplies that are in demand or a network of associations that have wealth or supplies that are in demand.
    2. Person comes accross an opportunity that provides he/she the backbone that allows them to further their goals (either legally or illegally).
    3. Person creates, recreates, has(like looks), discovers or invents an idea, concept, form of art and/or something that impacts social cultures and is discovered by someone with has either #1 or #2.

    That is how it works, you can apply that method to any of todays rich, famous or successful.

    P.S. the above is copyright Me(c), 2009. :D

  46. What has been said about sex by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0


    It's perhaps similar to what has been said about sex: to turn out really well, it requires both experience and enthusiasm, and no amount of one can compensate for a complete lack of the other. :-)

    Was there a study done which corroborates your assertion about sex turning out well? I haven't ever heard anyone state the two conditions you have here as requirements for a good experience.

  47. 10000 hrs != The Beatles by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Although there is surely a large helping of serendipity in the megasuccess of any creative person, 10000 hours of practice is not "why the Beatles succeeded". I'm sure you could find any number of other groups from that period who had also spent long hours in the Hamburg clubs. They didn't become the Beatles. That was down to a combination of other variables -- one of which just may have been superior talent.

    What the research I've seen on this point seems to say is that the 10000 hours may be a necessary condition for megasuccess. But it's not a sufficient condition. And the kids with straight A's in grade school only rarely grow up to be intellectual leaders.

    1. Re:10000 hrs != The Beatles by jeffc128ca · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "And the kids with straight A's in grade school only rarely grow up to be intellectual leaders"

      Just because you got straight A's doesn't mean you had to work for them. Much of Gladwell's work shows that effort, time, and experience trump natural talent, if it exists. Who works harder to get the grade they did, the grade A wiz kid that finishes home work in no time or the D student who spends hours and hours trying to understand something.

      Not sure if it's true or a myth, but I heard Einstein failed high school a few times before hitting on that relativity thing. I have also known in my own life a couple of academic super stars with Phd's that became useless in the career world. Last I heard one of them took a job on the factory floor at John Deere.

  48. communism doesn't work in large groups by conspirator57 · · Score: 1

    you're right. we should just make everyone's lives miserable so as to evenly distribute "society's" resources. i'll take charge of the allocation governance. we can be sure that i'll be just as miserable as everyone else, can't we? oh, wait this has been tried before in soviet russia? damn, i'm not original either.

    and it's impossible that we could increase production so fewer people have to be materially miserable. that's just crazy talk.

    --
    "If still these truths be held to be
    Self evident."
    -Edna St. Vincent Millay
    1. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Hard workers should get multiples of income. heck 2 even 5 times as much.

      Nothing justifies over 400x. That just represents that the wealthy have gotten control of their own pay raises. They did this by incorporating in states where shareholders have no rights.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    2. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 1

      No one is talking about "even", but we are talking about something that even remotely approaches "sane". And "sane" takes into account many other factors other then just someone's overpowering ego and desire to viciously claw his/her way to riches over the dead bodies of everyone else around them. "Sane" does not involve tailoring the society's structure to people who measure their "success" based upon the number of others they can piss on with impunity.

      And any sane approach must acknowledge that random events beyond one's control play a pivotal role in one's life and that "self-made" men do not really exist beyond the realm of wishful thinking. That in practice translates into strong social safety nets, universal health coverage, access to education, limits on sizes of businesses etc, all resulting in much much smaller disparities between the "successful" denizens and the "average" ones. A situation where one person earns the income of a 1000000 others is simply a case of rabid societal idiocy and is not sustainable in the long term any more than totalitarian societies masquerading as "communist" are.

    3. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by ScentCone · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They did this by incorporating in states where shareholders have no rights.

      And those shareholders were forced to invest in that company... how? Or is it possible that those shareholders actually wanted to see their shares become more valuable, and were happy to reward whoever can make that happen with a big fat paycheck?

      Because if all a well-paid executive is is a load on the company, with no benefit, then that means that the shareholders aren't getting what they should get. And when that happens, they unload their shares. The value of the shares goes down. The company's capital shrinks. The visibility of that shrinking value causes concern among other investors, who also divest. And you get companies with worthless stocks, just as ought to happen.

      Is it really your contention that the person who guides a multi-billion dollar company is only worth - to the shareholders, the customers, and the other employees of that company - 5 times what the janitor is making? Since you're choosing numbers, why not say he's not worth any more? Gee, maybe because there are very few people in the world who can effectively do that job, and the company needs to compete for them? How are you going to do that when only offering a janitor's wages? Or five times the janitor's wages? Why should someone who knows how to do that job settle for one that pays that much when another company might pay more? And since you're looking to control what shareholders are allowed to decide to pay the people they employ, and cap everyone's pay, why aren't you also talking about capping the janitor's pay? Perhaps all janitors, everywhere, should make the same Government Approved Janitor Salary? We can even have a Bureau Of Wages that centrally manages what each person's pay should be! And since everyone will finally be equally miserable, we can all make ourselves feel better by calling each other "comrade." That'll be great!

      Or, you can let the people who choose to invest in a company decide what sort of compensation is reasonable, and let them pull their investment out of that company if they don't like it. Yeah, I know, no governement job is created in that scenario, and no need to tax private citizens to pay for that job. Bummer!

      --
      Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
    4. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      until very recently, the typical compensation was about 10x.
      in many other countries, the typical compensation for the same job in equally large companies is a fraction of what it is in america.

      and yet, they find people to do those jobs well enough that they are kicking our asses.

      our executives apparently only know how to take large paychecks for destroying the companies they run.

      ---

      And who says our shareholders are going to continue buying shares in companies unless the law changes. a lot of people are leaving the market and will never come back. And so our solution is to give billions of tax payer dollars to keep these poorly run companies (by grossly overcompensated executives) in business.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    5. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by conspirator57 · · Score: 1

      First, from a moral relativist point of view (which most /.ers seem to have), why is your redefinition of "sane" desirable? What purpose does your apparent desire for egalitarianism serve? Do you merely want to skate through life doing the minimum possible and maximizing your personal recreational time? Do you resent others who manage to have more recreational time than you by dint of whatever circumstances? Or are you misguidedly altrusitic? If so, why? Whence come your ethics and why ought the rest of us subscribe to them?

      I think you misplace the blame for the recent unsustainable boom on those making a lot of money. It seems to me that large earners in unsuccessful firms are a symptom, not the cause of our current issues. I (and others much more closely connected to the happenings in the financial industry) place more attribution on the shift of risk away from those in charge caused by investment firms going public in the 80s. Also, risk exposure was shunted away from those making loans in the last 10 years. Another, closely associated proximate cause were the attempts to be egalitarian by reducing lending standards to meet HUD low-income home ownership goals.

      --
      "If still these truths be held to be
      Self evident."
      -Edna St. Vincent Millay
    6. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by ScentCone · · Score: 1

      our executives apparently only know how to take large paychecks for destroying the companies they run

      Really? All of them? Huh. Not a single, successful business out there, run by "our executives." Wow. I had no idea.

      --
      Don't disappoint your bird dog. Go to the range.
    7. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      First, from a moral relativist point of view (which most /.ers seem to have)

      Eh? You mean the viewpoint that just because a group of people do something, that automatically makes it right? I've actually seen very little of that on Slashdot. In fact, the overwhelming majority of discussion on here seems to be about things groups of people do that Slashdotters believe are wrong.

      , why is your redefinition of "sane" desirable? What purpose does your apparent desire for egalitarianism serve?

      Why is it insane to allow the few to piss on the many? Well, I guess a good start to answering that would be that very few people like to be pissed on.

      Do you merely want to skate through life doing the minimum possible and maximizing your personal recreational time?

      Who doesn't? Honestly, imagine a world in which everyone has all their basic needs met without working. How many of those people do you think would spend much time working? How many do you think would spend most of their time recreating? My bets are on "almost no one" and "almost everyone," respectively.

      Do you resent others who manage to have more recreational time than you by dint of whatever circumstances?

      Who doesn't? Even you do, as evidenced by your earlier use of the disparagement "merely skate through life."

      Or are you misguidedly altrusitic? If so, why? Whence come your ethics and why ought the rest of us subscribe to them?

      Because we don't like being pissed on, but most of us have been pissed on for so long we've forgotten what lack of a yellow tint is like?

      I think you misplace the blame for the recent unsustainable boom on those making a lot of money.

      I'm pretty sure he wasn't talking about the current economic slump when he said "unsustainable." He was talking about an eventual and irrecoverable collapse of our economy. What we have now is barely a whiff of that; it's not even a taste.

      Another, closely associated proximate cause were the attempts to be egalitarian by reducing lending standards to meet HUD low-income home ownership goals.

      Yep; surprisingly enough, putting a band-aid over a deep infection doesn't help make the infection go away. Well, not really surprising, really.

    8. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by snowraver1 · · Score: 1

      Do you merely want to skate through life doing the minimum possible and maximizing your personal recreational time?

      What is wrong with that? The way I look at things, you only get one life. You might as well make it enjoyable. I would bet that "I wish I spent more time working" ranks pretty low on the list of last words that one says before they die.

      --
      Copyright 2010. All rights reserved. This comment may not be copied in any way including, but not limited to caching.
    9. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by conspirator57 · · Score: 1

      I'm pretty sure he wasn't talking about the current economic slump when he said "unsustainable." He was talking about an eventual and irrecoverable collapse of our economy. What we have now is barely a whiff of that; it's not even a taste.

      Then I have even greater difficulty seeing how the object of his ire (large salaries) is the root cause of such a collapse. It is still a symptom (and one which will all but certainly pass before the collapse you suggest is manifest). I'd place monitary policy and general laziness (your assertions about wanting to work as little as possible being a desirable and achievable state) as the main culprit there. Problem is that so many want to use the same tool for their own purposes, including people who'd love to use it for the purposes you espouse.

      Eh? You mean the viewpoint that just because a group of people do something, that automatically makes it right? I've actually seen very little of that on Slashdot. In fact, the overwhelming majority of discussion on here seems to be about things groups of people do that Slashdotters believe are wrong.

      but what criteria does one use to determine wrongness? and where do these criteria come from? Your repeated fixation on being pissed upon? In my experience placing the oppressed in positions of power to "fix" the system that pissed on them merely leads to a shift in who is pissing on who, not the oft-stated goal of ending the pissing.

      Who doesn't? Honestly, imagine a world in which everyone has all their basic needs met without working. How many of those people do you think would spend much time working? How many do you think would spend most of their time recreating? My bets are on "almost no one" and "almost everyone," respectively.

      overpopulation and idiocracy are the results of such a naive utopia

      --
      "If still these truths be held to be
      Self evident."
      -Edna St. Vincent Millay
    10. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by conspirator57 · · Score: 1

      but if equality of outcome is also enforced, then the society fails to produce enough to cover its needs and breadlines or worse result.

      --
      "If still these truths be held to be
      Self evident."
      -Edna St. Vincent Millay
    11. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by ElectricRook · · Score: 1

      When you go out and found a company, invest all your money, all your families money, borrow money from investors, dedicate your whole life to your business, including every night, every weekend, every weekend night, work your ass into the ground, then - yes you are entitled to take home as much as you want.

      I've not done those things, and I feel fine that the CEO whom I work for makes hundreds of millions on HIS business, and I'm satisfied with my really nice paycheck, cause I did not the the above things, cause I'm too lazy. I earn what I deserve for my investment in time.

      If you are unhappy with what you earn, follow these four simple steps to success:
      1. Find a great idea.
      2. Work hard at it.
      3. Profit.
      4. Defend what you have earned, you are entitled to it.

      --
      - High Tech workers, please say NO to Union Carpenters, their Union sees fit to control our compensation.
    12. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 2, Interesting

      What purpose does your apparent desire for egalitarianism serve? Do you merely want to skate through life doing the minimum possible and maximizing your personal recreational time?

      As someone else pointed out to you, it is really an existential question. What is the "purpose" of life? Is "hard work and sacrifice and pain for uncertain rewards largely based on random chance" the only way to live? Is an attempt to reduce the "risk/reward" ratio for everyone an evil deed? Or is life supposed to be like a Las Vegas casino where nearly everyone loses so that some extremely rare random person can win the "jackpot" somehow superior? (and the person in question promptly going on TV to extol his/her "skill" and "perseverance" at pulling the machine's lever to a chorus of adoring true-believers) Is co-operation the superior way of an sentient species, or vicious competition to the death for scraps in an endless winner-takes-almost-all game?

      I think you misplace the blame for the recent unsustainable boom ...

      Your excuses would sound more sincere if this was the first "boom" ever caused by the systemic instability of the "winner-takes-most" society. Or a second... or maybe a third ... but this has been going on so long that some dusty 19th century books are still around excusing busts of that time ... equally insincerely. And going further back one can see more busts and booms and wars and famines and what not caused by various different incarnations of greed-and-power based societies. It is endless really. I do think that sentient beings should be able to do much better than this.

    13. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      You realize that the vast majority of CEO's did not found their companies?

      You realize that some senior executives in the financial companies had been working less than a year and got over 10 million dollars (of tax payer money) this fall?

      ---

      And even then I still disagree with you. The rest of society is impinged by your efforts. What I have seen over my life is that once you get beyond a certain level of wealth, you become bad for society. You break laws with impunity, get away with murder, turn out drugs that kill people, break the law and pay the fine, get the city to take people's beach front property so you can build condominiums there, everything except (well probably including when you consider the cosmetic companies) torturing puppies.

      If we are to have a free society, with the maximum benefit for all, then there must be a limit on how wealthy any one person or corporation can become.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    14. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by conspirator57 · · Score: 1

      Busts occur because people keep doing things that no longer work and resources are wasted on useless things. It is logical to pursue success where one has found success in the past. Hence in capitalism individuals throng to the same, successful investments. No one wants to be left behind. In communism the fearless leaders do the same thing in their allocation of resources, e.g. the 5 year plans made so famous by the Soviet Union. However, given that change is the only constant, sometimes lack of adequate information, political, and/or sentimental forces cause those directing production to do something suboptimal. Sometimes the forces at hand are so strong that the same failed strategy is pursued well past the point it becomes obvious that it ought to have been ended. This is a vulnerability in any real human organization and no amount of "sentience" is going to fix it.

      In your ideal world, where does the omniscient coordination of the entire human economy come from? It's a pipe dream to think that it is achievable by any system, but the virtue of capitalism aided by openly available information is that busts are relatively short while investors figure out what sorts of endeavors are worth investing in (and thus employing people to do the work associated with them). There is always motivation to invest, and thus is native human greed turned to societal benefit. Does politics get in the way of that? Of course. But is does so for every system tried to date, including communism.

      The unfortunate aspects of communism are:
      1. that historically it has been unstable, shifting readily to totalitarianism or oligarchy. (think Russia's communist revolution being subverted even before the revolution was complete)
      2. it results in an ossified, slow to react buraucracy.

      Your apologetic for communism would sound more sincere if communism hadn't already been shown by our historical experience to have the above characteristics.

      But say your god of the economy were to emerge and tell us each what we ought to be doing. Surely it will need to continually adjust the number of people employed in each pursuit. For just as we no longer tabulate actuarial statistics by hand, sometime we will replace each technology we currently use. E.g. if teleportation were to become possible and practical, we would find ourselves needing many fewer airline pilots and train engineers, and factories to produce those vehicles. Many people would have to change jobs and retrain. Not all of us have the capacity to do the latter effectively. These are the negative consequences of so-called disruptive technologies. There is thus motivation in human politics to preserve the status quo. To still have a perceived need for auto workers as such. To still need toll collectors even though EZPass obviates the need for most of them. Etc.

      Under such a scheme as would be needed to make your apparent utopian vision of things, people would have even less certainty of what their job would be the next day because the job oracle would optimize the labor directed at each activity. And people would be unhappy because of being exposed to such constant change in their circumstances.

      Further, the book is (as it is titled) about outliers. For those of us firmly within the first 1-2 standard deviations, there is, i'm sure, a much stronger correlation between our effort (on all fronts: social as well as technical) and our results in life. For some of us (the socially challenged in particular) it is hard to recognize that we are members of a society and that we need to communicate our utility and concern for the welfare of those around us in an effective manner. Were effort not at all correlated with success in any part of society as you suggest, society as such would cease to function at all and we'd return to being hunter-gatherers or somesuch. We're not there yet, and i'm not holding my breath for it.

      As to the choices you present to me, i'd have to label that as a false dichotomy. There are more choices than free-for-all cage match and no one does anything socialism. We currently have a particularly ineffective mixture of the two, which I agree is frustrating.

      --
      "If still these truths be held to be
      Self evident."
      -Edna St. Vincent Millay
    15. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 1

      Busts occur because people keep doing things that no longer work and resources are wasted on useless things. It is logical to pursue success where one has found success in the past. Hence in capitalism individuals throng to the same, successful investments. No one wants to be left behind. In communism the fearless leaders do the same thing in their allocation of resources, e.g. the 5 year plans made so famous by the Soviet Union. However, given that change is the only constant, sometimes lack of adequate information, political, and/or sentimental forces cause those directing production to do something suboptimal. Sometimes the forces at hand are so strong that the same failed strategy is pursued well past the point it becomes obvious that it ought to have been ended. This is a vulnerability in any real human organization and no amount of "sentience" is going to fix it.

      What you presented is of course simply an argument for a strong social safety-net so that when things go pear shaped, for whatever reason, people do not end up rioting over food and medicine (which might end up being the case if things keep going on the course they are presently). It is also a supporting argument for diversification i.e. limiting the size of individual businesses as not only to avoid the "too big to fail" syndrome occurring in the extreme, but to increase competition across the board in ordinary circumstances.

      But on the philosophical scale of things, Soviet Union and their totalitarian socialism are not exactly the only possible co-operative scenario out there. As a matter of fact it is simply an example of where not to go. There are many other alternatives. Are they all feasible? Optimal? Who knows, until they are tried we will probably not know. What we do know for sure is that the "capitalism" as we have it now is not only prone to disastrous malfunctions (just as Soviet socialism was, I grant you that), but from a moral perspective is only marginally better then outright feudalism.

      In your ideal world, where does the omniscient coordination of the entire human economy come from?

      Advanced information technology perhaps? Radically different upbringing and social norms? The point is that as our knowledge and technology improves, there are new options being introduced which were not there yesterday. And we should honestly examine them.

      It's a pipe dream to think that it is achievable by any system, but the virtue of capitalism aided by openly available information is that busts are relatively short while investors figure out what sorts of endeavors are worth investing in (and thus employing people to do the work associated with them). There is always motivation to invest, and thus is native human greed turned to societal benefit. Does politics get in the way of that? Of course. But is does so for every system tried to date, including communism

      This of course is quite telling. You assume without a second thought that "me-mine-I-myself-all-mine" mindset, motivated strictly by base, animalistic greed is, and should be, the default behaviour, a base upon all human activity is constructed. Despite evidence that not all people, even now, are motivated by greed. What if there was a society wide change of norms whereby "keeping up with the Johnses" was not a desirable activity at all and in fact a shunned behaviour? How would that impact your whole notion of economy? It is precisely this kind of unexamined, almost religious dogmas that lead to all sorts of flawed, restricted and ultimately failing societal models. Objective examination of such factors followed by a design of optimal societal structure should be what sentient beings would do, even if it involves serious alterations of these very beings' own characteristics to accomplish.

      The unfortunate aspects of communism are: 1. that historically it has been unstable, shifting readily to totalita

    16. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by ElectricRook · · Score: 1

      Yes, I know a majority of CEO's did not found their companies, but it's their company all the same, you and I work for them for $$ on a pre-determined agreement. If you think your services are worth more than you receive, then go market your skills elsewhere. You are probably paid what the market will bear for your skillset. If you are unhappy with that, then improve your skillset to the level where you are earning what you think you are worth. If the market for your skillset is saturated, then cross train into another industry where you think your new skillsets will return an income which satisfies you.

      You and I are paid what we are worth. This is Kobiashi-Maru Captain Kirk - if you foresee the outcome, good for you. If you don't like the projected outcome, then change the formula until you like the outcome.

      That's what I'm doing, I have the (perhaps mistaken) belief that Geology will have a better future than Electronics, so at 47 with a wife, three kids, & a mortgage, I'm back at school becoming a rock scientist. I don't think I'll be able to slow down to a graceful retirement in Electronics, so I'm changing the formula.

      I guarantee you, you'll never get anywhere by complaining about the other guy's success.

      The maximum benefit to all, is everyone can earn all they want with no limits. This ain't a zero sum game. When you create something, you create wealth, when you market that something, you collect that wealth.

      Wanna get rich quick? Follow these three steps:

      1. Find the most important problem in your industry.
      2. Fix that problem.
      3. Profit.

      There are three kind of people in this world, those who are fixing the top ten problems in their industry.
      Those who watch the top ten problems in their industry get fixed.
      And those who don't know there are problems in their industry.

      If you ain't working on one of the top ten problems in your industry...

      --
      - High Tech workers, please say NO to Union Carpenters, their Union sees fit to control our compensation.
    17. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by Descalzo · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If that's the case, then it seems that one company would find these good managers that supposedly are willing to work for 5x the wages of the janitor, and use the savings to become more profitable.

      --
      I cried real tears when Li Mu Bai died.
    18. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by thebigbadme · · Score: 1

      your assumption about the devaluation of a company's stock is possibly flawed... I totally agree that this is how it should work, and probably would if all investors were as versed in research as they ought be... but a lot of people are not versed in such matters.

      That bit is all their own fault. However, having a fairly open stock exchange, especially with the advent of low-cost trading online, there is suddenly an exposure where people who don't know that they don't know enough are playing with real money in a situation they are under-prepared for. This is actually a large problem across all sorts of cross-sections of humans: not knowing that one does not know something, and therefore not knowing that there is anything to do about it.

      Where should the education come from? Under-funded public schools? Perhaps everyone should decide for themselves how their children become educated, perhaps even with private schooling, but wait, there's that pesky problem of not knowing what you don't know... cropping up in how to choose a schooling path...

      seems like there should be some sort of organized body established to take some of everyones money in exchange for things such as protection, education, and infrastructure... and maybe a little art, to make it look a little better.

      The system is bloated. It moves very slow, and that can be a big problem sometimes. But sometimes things are allowed to move so fast that something happens, it gets way too big, and nobody can stop it before a threshold is crossed, and there's no turning back... for example .... dot-com bubble, 193x stock market crash, housing bubble, richard nixon (that last one was a joke, sort-of)

      and finding that middle ground is difficult.

      should there be limits to earnings? maybe
      performance based incentives? maybe

      what happens if person z does a great job by doing something which falls into a non-black/white area, and is rewarded for stellar performance, but it come back later, perhaps too late, that this task wasn't so good... if you lessen the incentive, you potentially lessen the solid performance, especially because explicit cheaters will still cheat, but a soft limit might keep things a little slower moving, so they can be reviewed better, trying to limit the exposure on potentially very bad things.

      Free markets sound good; but then again people become less inclined to think of how their own actions affect anyone else the further removed from directly facing each-other they become. Why should anyone think about how they affect anyone else? Well, down to brass tax, take the Hobbsian view of the natural state. After considering that, there is still the problem with people, though: that some people end up with disproportionately large sticks, and others' sticks are rather small, and some people (too many, IMO) abuse this imbalance, which sort of undermines the 'fabric' of society. This was among the issues that the US founding fathers were trying to consider when forming the country: How do you strike the perfect balance. Over 200 years later with this experiment, and it's still being refined... Unfortunately, people with bigger sticks tend to be able to modify the experiment disproportionately to other people, and thus the results get generally skewed in their favor...

      PM me if you care to have a rational discussion about this matter further

      --
      "It's the Law of the Universe, and I'm the sheriff." Slash-cott 2/10-2/17
    19. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Want to get rich quick?

      Get born wealthy

      Get admitted to one of a few particular schools.

      Graduate straight into the executive class.

      ---

      I've worked at multiple companies with complete idiots for executives. They fell for every salesperson that walked in the door. Made the same idiot mistakes over and over.

      And look across the expanse of companies in the US now going bankrupt because of idiocy. From idiots who got huge bonuses because they and their friends control their own pay.

      It's not what they are worth.

      They are now actively damaging their companies, their countries, and their societies.

      A couple centuries ago they would have been dealt with by a mob by this point.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    20. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by conspirator57 · · Score: 1

      All of which is again based on your underlying Divine Dogma of individuals being unchangeably "employed" for "wages" in pursuit of individual "wealth". If that were to be altered in any way, your entire "argument" is blown into dust.

      LOL!! I'll ship you your "I win" button shortly. I'm afraid it's broken though. Our system of the use of money as a medium of exchange is what enables us to not have to farm and be blacksmiths and know building trades, etc. It is vastly more scalable than barter. Can you imagine the development of solid state electronics in a barter or other currency lacking society? Your utopia has a severe bootstrapping problem. As it is, I am quite comfortable in my assumption that currencies will remain a tool we use for the indefinite future.

      Seriously, though. You give no consideration to *how* a society would get from point a to point b. You gloss over it with "we should experiment" etc. Well, it would require the considerable exercise of coercive and tyrannical power against the vast majority of the population to make any of these changes in what hitherto has been considered to be human nature. Many will see your proposed coercion as evil in its own right despite any noble assertions you might make regarding your motives (I am one of those).

      I will not entertain the rest of your one dimensional assertions regarding e.g. feudalism. You are trolling here, even if you don't realize it. Go read some more history.

      And I've yet to be able to get you to state the origins of your "ethics" and "morals". Since you evidently have no problem forcing others to do things you consider "right" I cannot consider any of your ends moral because coercion is not compatible with my ethics.

      --
      "If still these truths be held to be
      Self evident."
      -Edna St. Vincent Millay
    21. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 1

      LOL!! I'll ship you your "I win" button shortly. I'm afraid it's broken though. Our system of the use of money as a medium of exchange is what enables us to not have to farm and be blacksmiths and know building trades, etc. It is vastly more scalable than barter. Can you imagine the development of solid state electronics in a barter or other currency lacking society? Your utopia has a severe bootstrapping problem. As it is, I am quite comfortable in my assumption that currencies will remain a tool we use for the indefinite future.

      You miss the point entirely. It is almost as if you are so indoctrinated as to be incapable of even imagining other (however unlikely) scenarios. For example, there are many religious (and other) communes around USA and Canada which use no money (nor barter) internally. At all. While their particular method of co-operation is pretty much known to be not scalable to larger societies, I am sure that other forms of organization exist that are, given some serious societal research.

      On a smaller scale yet, every family in the USA (or one would hope so) does not use currency nor barter between their members. Mothers and fathers give children care and nutrition with no expectation of material recompense.

      I could go on, but these examples should give you at least some idea how wrong you are.

      Seriously, though. You give no consideration to *how* a society would get from point a to point b. You gloss over it with "we should experiment" etc. Well, it would require the considerable exercise of coercive and tyrannical power against the vast majority of the population to make any of these changes in what hitherto has been considered to be human nature. Many will see your proposed coercion as evil in its own right despite any noble assertions you might make regarding your motives (I am one of those).

      Not at all. Again, you purposefully restrict the available options so that your ideologically pre-conceived notions appear somehow as the only choices. The fact is that it is within the realm of possibility for a small group of people to organize themselves in some radically new way, followed which it can grow via recruitment and natural growth until it achieves a very large scale. That is in fact how all idea-based groups formed, in a spectrum as wide as new religions all the way to the Communists. At some point such groups tend to achieve critical mass and go "mainstream". What happens next is really up to the tenets of the philosophy and the attitude of the group's members, some seeking "converts" via persuasion and setting of examples, some at gun-point. You of course only consider the second possibility.

      Also, what is "human nature" exactly? Some of it is clearly genetic, but much of it is shaped by the society itself by interaction of the minds of young children with the society and its "culture" around them. Thus it is clearly possible, to a large extent, to modify this "human nature". And that even before considering more drastic measures such as genetic manipulation or future technologies such as nanotech.

      I will not entertain the rest of your one dimensional assertions regarding e.g. feudalism. You are trolling here, even if you don't realize it. Go read some more history.

      No, you do not "entertain" these arguments because you are simply incapable of meeting them. And the "go look it up" "argument" might "work" on the Bill O'Reilly's audience, but it won't here.

      And I've yet to be able to get you to state the origins of your "ethics" and "morals". Since you evidently have no problem forcing others to do things you consider "right" I cannot consider any of your ends moral because coercion is not compatible with my ethics.

      "Forcing?" See above. The fact that you cannot conceive of any method other then forcible coercion tells far more about you then me. But then again you are proba

    22. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wow. Just wow.

      I am quite capable of imagining different social structures (and how they might become quite widespread.) Your "argument" is a paper tiger and a waste of time, given that I've already conceded the existance and feasibility of small-scale communes.

      You however, appear to be incapable of seeing the weaknesses inherent in the governance necessary to bring about your utopian vision. It's okay. Ideologues like yourself have been dreaming up utopias for quite some time. Unfortunately these all share some common problems. Almost invariably they rely on some sort of central power (individual or oligarchy) who must resist the temptation to abuse the power they are entrusted with.

      I think it ought to be clear from the title of the thread that I started that I can indeed encompass within my (according to you) walnut sized brain the idea that people are capable of *voluntarily* forming quite a wide array of small scale societies, including communes. I do not consider anything much larger-scale than currently implemented to be realistic without devolving into tyranny. Moreover, I consider your idea that the entire world would voluntarily shift their way of life to something you and your "societal research" concoct to be the height of naivety. You will require force to do so and I along with many others will oppose you. My motivation stems from my belief in a natural rights philosophy. Many utilitarians will also oppose you.

      You fail to consider that perhaps part of the reason that small scale communes are possible
      may be that the rest of the world is not run that way and that "bad eggs" have the freedom to leave the commune (and the commune has the ability to expel the "bad eggs"). If the whole of society was communistic there is nowhere for dishonest participants to go. This actually turned out to be a problem in computer networks at various stages. For example, on ethernets, if two machines emit packets at the same time the protocol calls for each to backoff and wait to retransmit. Some have made firmware modifications that violate this rule in order to get more bandwidth.

      Also, what are you trying to create? an ant colony? The movie Demolition Man may have some good lessons for you regarding radical, widespread social "engineering". Or perhaps one of Vernor Vinge's books, like "A Deepness in the Sky".

      But you are quite comfortable with coercively modifying everyone's genes to your ends. This is disgusting and I had thought eugenics rightly consigned to the dustbin of history. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugenicist It is categorically immoral.

      WTF Bill O'Reilly? ad hominem attack those who disagree with you much?

      However, an example of your shallowness on feudalism in particular, feudal societies had *nominally* hereditary power. Especially early in the middle ages, this was frequently fluid. Peasant revolts were common when leaders did not hold up their end of the feudal bargain which exchanges resources for protection. Successful feudal leaders built fortified towns and ran their markets fairly, building what are today Europe's larger cities. Yet you have no room in your worldview for the idea that feudalism might have been better than the available alternatives of the time and was not without merit. You merely deride it as though it was worthless. Which of us is the simpleton ideologue on this matter? I think it's you.

      Since it took me far too long to point out your errors on just the one historical reference you misapplied, I will not waste time on the others. "Go look them up."

      But then again you are probably the "rugged individualist" type who probably considers the highway code and traffic lights as a Satan-spawned evil fruit of tyranny.

      Wow. Your majesty's petulance and wrath is a terrible thing to behold. I am a (small l) libertarian. But Libertarianism has plenty of room for laws that proscribe behavior that harms others. Your simpleton argument against libertarianism is really quite trite and reveals your ignorance.

    23. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 1

      I do not, as a rule, reply to ACs, particularly childish and petulant ones who do so only so that they can down-mod posts on the very threads they try to "participate" in. Use your real account and I will demolish your silly misconceptions forthwith.

    24. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by conspirator57 · · Score: 1

      my cookies got blown away... it was me, in case it wasn't obvious. feel free to provide whatever rebuttal you care to.

      --
      "If still these truths be held to be
      Self evident."
      -Edna St. Vincent Millay
    25. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      Except for the fact that the executive level is controlled by a toxic culture of interlinking board directors.

      Companies from other countries were the only answer. But it didn't make any difference- the executive answer to profitability was to cut more american workers and hire more indian and chinese workers.

      Hell they have companies whose entire business is telling corporations how to advertise for jobs so that an american can't qualify for a position.

      American's responded appropriately-- leaving fields that are hard but no longer paid well in droves.

      The end result tho is this nasty service economy which is not sustainable. The next step is very bad things that we try to prevent by keeping society fair.

      The wealthy seem to have forgotten that if you end up being 1% of society, you are going to be violated by the rest.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    26. Re:communism doesn't work in large groups by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 1

      Unfortunately these all share some common problems. Almost invariably they rely on some sort of central power (individual or oligarchy) who must resist the temptation to abuse the power they are entrusted with.

      Or the power is wholly decentralized, something that might be possible with information technology. Yes, that is true that some power must exist, otherwise the thing is simply not a society but a random collection of individuals and has no properties of a society. Every society has some "core" ideology that glues it together, in the case of the USA it is its "national ethos", the geography and the laws stemming from its history. Remove that and the whole thing disappears to be soon swallowed by its neighbouring societies. That is in fact one of the fatal problems of extreme libertarianism, more correctly described as "total anarchy": the weakening up to the point of dis-integration of the very society itself. A collection of individuals whose sole motivation is self-centered greed is simply incapable of maintaining strong social cohesion. Heck, if self-centered greed (ala Ayn Rand) was the only "societal" force present, even simple raising of offspring would fail as children offer no material gain to be had to their parents (unless of course you treat them as indentured slaves).

      So the real question is not if such power would exist to hold the thing together, but what its properties should be. And I believe that a combination of social engineering and technology can result in radically new designs that do not fit the moulds of old you are so stuck upon.

      I think it ought to be clear from the title of the thread that I started that I can indeed encompass within my (according to you) walnut sized brain the idea that people are capable of *voluntarily* forming quite a wide array of small scale societies, including communes. I do not consider anything much larger-scale than currently implemented to be realistic without devolving into tyranny.

      That is where your ideology leads you astray. What is "tyranny" anyhow? Consider this extreme case: if your personal interests and wants are in full alignment at all times with the "tyrant", is he/she/it still a "tyrant", even if his/her/its power over you is "absolute"? What if it is you, yourself, via an advanced implant-based, automated real-time consensus resolution system who are your own "tyrant"? Or, in a completely different scenario, what if individuals in that society use a system measuring compassion for others as a form of "currency"? There are many, many possibilities, each with its own interesting characteristics and pitfalls, all that could be considered, but you are stuck on "now" and "the way things are" as the only conceivable way to look at things. I think it is simply an animalistic fear that drives your attitude, fear of the "unknown" and "unfamiliar".

      Moreover, I consider your idea that the entire world would voluntarily shift their way of life to something you and your "societal research" concoct to be the height of naivety.

      Really? Then consider this scenario: you have a small "nation", somewhere on an island, whose technological and scientific power positively eclipses all the other nations on the planet, whose citizens appear to receive very long life, excellent care, who are happy and content and who seem to want for nothing. Now imagine that this small nation has a clever immigration policy, essentially accepting all those who are willing to 100% commit to its ways and that its power keeps increasing exponentially, leaving all the other nations further and further in the dust. And everyone knows it.

      What do you think would happen? There are many alternatives from this point on, but they all pretty much do not end well for the rest of the nations on Earth. The most likely scenario I see is that the other nations, whose leaders and power-holders find themselves completely shaken

  49. Numbers in Asian languages shorter/more logical? by Non-Newtonian+Fluid · · Score: 3, Informative

    I was a Chinese major, studied and lived in Japan for 4 years and am fluent in both languages. I've also studied a small bit of Korean as well.

    I'm not sure how words for numbers could be more "logical" in these languages. In fact, in Korean there are two number naming systems -- one of native origin and the other of Chinese origin -- that can be used for values up to 100. (Japanese has this as well, but only up to 10.) For higher values the Chinese number names are used. So I doubt it has anything to do with language. Rather, I could see the the use of the abacus as a teaching tool as a big advantage, since it seems to confer a visceral knowledge of numbers and calculations that would be hard to acquire otherwise. Many people I know who became proficient with an abacus can visualize one in their head and use that visualization to do calculations.

    That said, learning "Indian methods of calculation" seems to have become popular in Japan recently. There are at least two Nintendo DS games that give instruction on how to do arithmetic using methods taught in Indian schools (I own one of them).

  50. Overrated by QuietLagoon · · Score: 1
    Malcolm Gladwell is overrated. His books ramble on for chapters and chapters when the concept could be expressed in a paragrapgh or two.
    .

    Blink - go with your first feeling. There, that's the whole 100+ page book in a five word sentence.

    Why people continue to fork money over to this guy is beyond me.

    1. Re:Overrated by frank_adrian314159 · · Score: 1

      Why people continue to fork money over to this guy is beyond me.

      Because his books are written in a much more entertaining style than your five word synopsis? See also "Infotainment".

      Oh... that was a rhetorical question? Nevermind.

      --
      That is all.
    2. Re:Overrated by jeffc128ca · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Blink - go with your first feeling. There, that's the whole 100+ page book in a five word sentence.

      Actually that's incorrect. The book says that intuition in experienced people works well. It's quite lousy in people without experience. Your brain is intuitively capable of processing lots of data and coming up with a correct action to a problem based on your past experience. It can do this way faster than it takes to consciously work it out. There are many many people who can't seem to grasp this concept.

      Perhaps you should give the book a second read.

    3. Re:Overrated by home-electro.com · · Score: 1

      Mod parent up.

      Oh, and buy his book if you want to contribute to MG's "story of success".

      I've read "Tipping point". There is only a single thought in this book, and unoriginal one for that matter.

    4. Re:Overrated by QuietLagoon · · Score: 1

      OK, so it takes a paragraph, not five words. :)

    5. Re:Overrated by QuietLagoon · · Score: 1

      btw, thanks for making my point for me. :)

  51. French units English units by Bob+Uhl · · Score: 1

    Gladwell argues Asians are not innately more able at math, but culturally more amenable to it based on the felicity of a language which is to our language as the metric system of weights and measures is to the English.

    Ummm, the French system is worse than the standard system. If the analogy held then Asians would be worse at math.

    French units have one single benefit: they are easily convertable. That's only a benefit on paper, and only a benefit when performing unit conversions. Base-10 is utterly horrible for performing physical manipulations (like, say, cutting lumber or dividing liquids).

    And of course many things in real life don't work out cleanly anyway. There's a reason why non-base-10 radians are so useful. A calorie is 4.1868 joules: both measure the same thing and both are French units and both have clean definitions--and yet they work out to have a nasty conversion anyway.

  52. They have already... several times... by hellfire · · Score: 1

    The Darwin Awards have been doing that for us for years.

    --

    "All great wisdom is contained in .signature files"

  53. Ecclesiastes by ObsessiveMathsFreak · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I returned and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all

    --
    May the Maths Be with you!
    1. Re:Ecclesiastes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "The race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, but that's the way to bet."

  54. Just finished it by apodyopsis · · Score: 1

    By strange coincidence I just finished reading it.

    I would of summarized it as "to be amazingly successful you need to be in the right place at the right time and be prepared to put 10,000 hours of your time into learning your profession before you are in your mid 20s".

    Which is kind of common sense.

    But it is a genuinely engaging and interested point.

    And it goes without saying that a complete idiot in the right place and the right time will probably still make a hash of it.

  55. Lucky Timing by Reorix · · Score: 1

    It's interesting that the author attributes the outliers' success partially to their circumstances, as if each of these individuals was somehow fated to pursue their exact paths regardless of the time period they lived in.

    It seems at least as plausible to me that part of their talent lay in recognizing the opportunity which they pursued. It reminds me mostly of how many scientific breakthroughs are pursued at the same time by many thinkers in the field. The climate is right for that kind of breakthrough, and talented individuals recognize the potential breakthroughs - and then make them. You could read breakthroughs two ways: 1) the individuals were "lucky" to have lived right before the breakthrough was made, or 2) the individuals were talented enough that they would have had a reasonable change of making a breakthrough, and the timing just influenced which breakthrough was made by them.

    Furthermore, there seems to be a difference between attributing outliers' success to external factors and explaining a population's success via cultural factors. Cultural factors are not external to the population in the same way that luck is external to an individual outlier, so at first glance, it seems like these chapters do not speak to each other much.

  56. Where's your $100 billion then? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Plenty of people have a killer business instinct. Few are in the position to capitalize on it the way Gates did.

    Gladwell never claims that it's all blind luck for guys like Gates and Joy. Rather, it's talent PLUS practice PLUS temperament PLUS blind luck.

    As a business owner, I can authoritatively say you are full of it and your statement sounds like a way you justify why people don't succeed.

    It doesn't take blind luck - luck is useless because...

    ...and yet you are not anywhere near as rich as Bill Gates...

    It sounds more to me like you are an illustration of exactly what Gladwell is talking about.

  57. Bill Gates as an example by Obfuscant · · Score: 2, Insightful
    Taking Bill Gates as an example,

    The book's use of Bill Gates as an example of the 10,000 hour rule is rather poor. Bill Gates did not build Microsoft by being a good programmer. He built it by taking other people's good programs. He didn't even need any skill to identify "good", because he took those that lots of people were using. He let the public determine what was good and leveraged that.

    1. Re:Bill Gates as an example by HeronBlademaster · · Score: 3, Interesting

      It is likely that had Bill Gates not sold BASIC to MITS in the beginning, he wouldn't have been able to succeed at the other stuff he did. Remember, he wrote the Altair's BASIC demonstration by hand on punch tape without being able to verify it - and it worked. (At least, that's what Pirates of Silicon Valley would have us believe.)

      That is something that takes skill, and I wouldn't be so quick to dismiss the role of his 10,000 hours in developing that skill.

    2. Re:Bill Gates as an example by CohibaVancouver · · Score: 1

      Bill Gates did not build Microsoft by being a good programmer

      Perhaps not, but he *started* MS by being a good programmer. Getting off the starting line is half the battle...

    3. Re:Bill Gates as an example by dreemernj · · Score: 1

      And also, considering how successful he was at picking software he could sell for big money, there's a chance that in addition to learning to program, there may have been 10,000 hours of learning to maneuver in the rapidly growing computer industry.

      I know people that I would consider master salesmen. They aren't sleezy or pushy, they are just good at selling stuff to you. Part of it is interpersonal skills and part of it is an understanding of whats for sale, who's buying, and how to shine the light on the product to maximize how useful it looks.

      Hearing retellings of Gates' success makes leads me to believe he learned a lot at an early age but only part of it (and perhaps not the most important part in the end) was programming.

      --
      1 (short ton / firkin) = 89.1432354 slugs / keg
    4. Re:Bill Gates as an example by goose-incarnated · · Score: 1

      Actually, I recall once seeing a snippet of code he supposedly wrote, and trust me, that code was very much written by a hacker ...

      (Some car game, or something - very primitive)

      --
      I'm a minority race. Save your vitriol for white people.
  58. Re:Numbers in Asian languages shorter/more logical by __aasqbs9791 · · Score: 1

    I tried to find out what "Indian methods of calculation" means but it mostly lead to pages in Japanese (and my Japanese is nearly worthless now) or to pages about psychic numbers and such. Care to give some info about what that method is actually about?

  59. Survivorship bias by rechtco · · Score: 1

    Survivorship bias is caused by looking at the winners at the end of a period and then tracing backwards to find causative factors. It suffers from two failings. It does not consider those who started at the same time with the same qualities but failed to succeed. One needs to either do a forward-looking study with matched groups of identical traits and see if the groups with the traits succeed, or one has to go back and rebuild old data to include the individuals with similar traits that did not succeed. When survivorship bias is controlled for, usually statements about the cause of the effect disappear and turn out to be unsubstantiated. This is why historical medical analysis, such as taking certain vitamins to not get a disease or live longer, do not hold up when put to forward looking controlled studies. At the time of Gates' beginning, many other young people were playing with computers and programming. There were many other companies like Gates' at the same time. Some of them had the same advantages and luck as Gates', but failed.

    The second failing is data mining. It occurs when one uses historical data and attempts to find some causative relationships. For example, if Gladwell looked at 100 successful individuals, the average odds are, let us say at a ten percent statistical confidence level, that 10 people will fit his criteria. It is these ten people he writes about, but it is nothing but the effect of probability. Of course, he does not mention the ones he looked at that he could not fit into his preconceived idea. It is like taking 100 coins and separately recording the results of flipping each one. About 12 coins, on average, will come up with three heads each in the first three tosses. To later say that these coins are different or more successful than the others without more info is meaningless. This is a common problem with stock market advice. Looking back over any period one can find stock relationships. However, those relationships will no longer hold going forward and were just a statistical fluke of the old data. This is why people who think they have found a pattern in the stock market can never consistently make money later.

  60. 21 year old 6th graders will become common by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    His argument about soccer players was incorrect, as others have pointed out. The birth month was necessary but not sufficient. Just because all players were born in a particular pair of months does not mean that anyone born in those month can play professional soccer. The unfortunate outcome of this though will be that parents will start to purposely hold their kids back for some perceived sports advantage. 21 year old 6th graders will become common.

    Anyone who has ever actually played sports will tell you that hard work can only take you so far. You really do need the physical tools as well. Which is why there aren't 5'10" no jumping centers in the NBA.

    The same is true intellectually. As a computer geek back in the 60s & 70s I wrote a CAI program for special ed kids. Some of them worked as hard as any kids I've ever seen, but simple arithmetic was about as much as they could do.

  61. Cherry picking by russotto · · Score: 1

    Larry Ellison, founder and CEO of Oracle, was born on August 17, 1944 Sergey Brin, co-founder of Google, was born on August 21, 1973 Larry Page, co-founder of Google, was born on March 26, 1973 Steve Wozniak, co-founder of Apple was born August 11, 1950 Jerry Yang, co-founder of Yahoo, born November 6, 1968 Mitch Kapor, founder of Lotus Development Corp, born November 1, 1950 You were saying, Mr. Gladwell? I didn't even have to reach for those.

    1. Re:Cherry picking by smellsofbikes · · Score: 1

      I'm not Gladwell, and I won't presume to argue his case for him. But, as I said,
      "He's not saying that only people born then become successful, or that every person born then becomes successful"
      just that a disproportionate number of people from a specific cohort, became bigwigs. He shows the same thing in Canadian hockey, in Asian school math scores, and a bunch of other areas.
      The book isn't about how Bill Gates became famous. The book is about how society sets up invisible gating systems in its attempt to select people based on merit, and then incorrectly concludes the people who succeed do so because of their merit. He spends a lot more time talking about the statistics that support his argument when he's talking about Canadian hockey: there really aren't enough tech billionares to get a trustworthy statistical analysis. However, once you've shown that you do have a trustworthy result, statistically speaking, you can go to other areas and show how they also look very similar.

      --
      Nostalgia's not what it used to be.
    2. Re:Cherry picking by Minix · · Score: 1

      You may have inadvertantly undermined your own point. billg and his cohort made it in computing, but the google guys made it in the internets.

      When did that gate open? I'd say 1994 isn't a bad arbitrary starting point. That'd make the google guys 21 at the time, which is consistent with the parent post's contention.

      --
      "There are four boxes to use in the defense of liberty: soap, ballot, jury, ammo. Use in that order." Ed Howdershelt
    3. Re:Cherry picking by styrotech · · Score: 1

      Heh. Look at the quote - it was talking about succeeding in the Personal Computer revolution. Out of your examples, only Mitch Kapors success stems from that. And his birthdate is the closest to Bill Gates anyway. Maybe Mitch had his own set of lucky breaks (that might not have necessarily seemed lucky at the time) that set him on his path a few years later than Gates did.

      And the fact that your examples from the Web revolution are all bunched around the same age and all went to Stanford, practically reinforces Galdwells points about being in the right place at the right time to capitalise on a new revolution.

    4. Re:Cherry picking by ErkDemon · · Score: 1

      Paul Allen and Bill Gates went to the same school. When Gates left and briefly went to Harvard, he supposedly lived down the hall from a guy called Steve Ballmer, who then got hired as MS's first manager (and did quite well out of it on share options).

  62. reminds me.. by Headw1nd · · Score: 1

    The idea that being "great" at something is a result of a lot of hard work put into it as early as possible reminds me of something my father used to say about military strategy. As he put it, the basic formula for victory was "Be there firstest with the mostest." If you've already honed your skills when your peers are just starting out, it's easy to see how you might develop an unshakable lead.

    My question would be what stops the process of reinvention, by which I mean accumulating the skills later and still making a mark? is it internal or external? Is is peer group, societal pressure, lack of motivation, time allocation, or something else? Or does it happen all the time without us taking much note of it?

  63. Funded to give it away by Animats · · Score: 1

    Actually, Bill Joy was successful because he had Government funding to give software away. Before "vi", there was the RAND Editor, which was better, but had a substantial per-seat cost. Before Joy did a TCP implementation, there were three others, but two of them (BBN and 3COM) cost several thousand dollars per machine. It's great when you can buy market share with Government money.

    Java was successful because Sun spent $20 million launching a free product. Nobody had ever done that before for a programming tool.

  64. Re:Loser by genner · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    Ha....Offtopic....you can't even get modded down right.

  65. common sense by uncreativeslashnick · · Score: 1

    Sounds like a long and fairly useless exercise in common sense. People who succeed are those who work hard and are lucky to be in the right place at the right time... wow, real work of genius, somebody submit this piece for the nobel prize.

    I do congratulate the guy on being a skilled enough writer to convince large amounts of people that it's worth buying a book that simply restates what 90% of humanity already knows.

    1. Re:common sense by strangeattraction · · Score: 1

      Believe it or not most people become offended when you mention these ideas. Give it a try. The myth of talent is very strong. Very similar to religion.

  66. Your Religion Is Showing by Capitalist1 · · Score: 1

    allocation of society's resources toward themselves

    "Society" does not have resources that people "allocate to themselves". That one phrase gives away your basic worldview, and explains the vehemence you feel toward anyone who believes that they can achieve individual success - that any one can earn what they have.

    External factors do exist. No one with any sense would deny that. But do you really believe that individual skill and effort has no effect on that individual's personal outcomes? That their actual outcomes are truly defined by external factors not within their control, and not, perhaps, by their ability to foresee, plan for, and possibly deal with those facts?

    The view that individuals never actually deserve to have more than others, that they just grab an unfair cut from a collectively-owned pool of "resources", is really just hatred of others for being successful.

    Envy is such an ugly emotion.

    --
    One man's religion is another man's belly-laugh. - LL
    1. Re:Your Religion Is Showing by jahudabudy · · Score: 1

      The view that individuals never actually deserve to have more than others, that they just grab an unfair cut from a collectively-owned pool of "resources", is really just hatred of others for being successful.

      I wouldn't say never, but if you study history, human nature, current events, any one of many many different fields, you come to the unmistakable conclusion that the majority of "successful" individuals got that way through behavior that is considered repugnant by mainstream standards. Your standards may vary, and "deserve" is an almost meaningless word, but I don't think resenting the methods most successful people use to gain their success is at all the same as "hating their success".

      --
      ...sometimes, in order to hurt someone very badly, you have to tell that person terrible lies. - PA
    2. Re:Your Religion Is Showing by ElectricRook · · Score: 1

      the majority of "successful" individuals got that way through behavior that is considered repugnant by mainstream standards

      In some circles, hard work and sacrifice must be considered repugnant, but in the circles where I circulate, those are considered positive attributes of successful people.

      But birds of a feather...

      --
      - High Tech workers, please say NO to Union Carpenters, their Union sees fit to control our compensation.
    3. Re:Your Religion Is Showing by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 1

      In some circles, hard work and sacrifice must be considered repugnant, but in the circles where I circulate, those are considered positive attributes of successful people.

      It figures that you would offer a meaningless platitude. The phrase "hard work and sacrifice" can apply equally to a baker, a scientist, a doctor ... or a highway robber, a safe-cracker .. or a thief of a Wall Street variety. They all "work hard", and in case of some of the thieves "really hard" - complete with putting their lives on the line in shootouts with cops, to pull off their heists.

      So "hard work and sacrifice" by themselves are not sufficient criteria to determine merit ... and thus allocation of resources. And this is the exact core of the problem, the dis-association of "merit" and "reward" in purely "capitalist" society. The defenders of status quo however do wish with all their might to avoid any examination of this fact.

    4. Re:Your Religion Is Showing by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 1

      "Society" does not have resources that people "allocate to themselves".

      Of course it does. The fact that a society is "greater then the sum of its parts" is the very reason why we flock together to form a society in the first place. Then there are questions like: who do the natural resources of planet Earth belong to? What merit does a dude who essentially does no work at all but merely "owns" a mine (inherited from his great-great-grandfather) and charges everyone for the ore (which is separate from the actual process of digging it up and processing it) bring to society to merit his rewards? Does his existence or actions create the ore? Isn't high merit-to-reward correlation the whole point of this whole "capitalist" exercise? And on and on and on it goes.

      That one phrase gives away your basic worldview, and explains the vehemence you feel toward anyone who believes that they can achieve individual success - that any one can earn what they have.

      My "vehemence" is toward people who out of self-centered reasons attempt to downplay or outright deny the very significant role random chance plays in their "success". They do so out of a (justified) fear that acknowledging that would severely weaken their claim to the magnitude of the "rewards" they receive. It is as simple as that.

      But do you really believe that individual skill and effort has no effect on that individual's personal outcome?

      They clearly do, however the extent of that effect is what is in question here. I simply pointed out that fortuitous circumstances play a far greater role in such "success" than most "successful" people's egos allow them to admit to. And this has a direct impact on the ways of allocating the "rewards" for their "merit" to the society, which again is the whole supposed purpose of "capitalism". In other words that societal formula is way off and that causes all sorts of systemic problems, the recent financial fiasco being just the latest in a long, long line of such.

      That their actual outcomes are truly defined by external factors not within their control, and not, perhaps, by their ability to foresee, plan for, and possibly deal with those facts?

      They clearly are to a very large extent. Would Bill Gates be born just a few years later, he would not take his present place in the history of computing, and thus would not achieve his riches, because the exact conditions for emergence of Microsoft would be long past by the time he was ready to act. Some other company (or perhaps a group of them) would have already taken its place in the world, led by people who despite their skill and effort never got their chance in our version of history. It is really as simple as that. History is choke-full of such examples, such as the famous Graham Bell / Elisha Gray scenario. Was Gray dumber or less hard working then Bell? Clearly not so. But he got virtually nothing out of the same (or perhaps greater as some historians would have it) effort and skill. The "spoils of victory" went all to Bell.

      The view that individuals never actually deserve to have more than others, that they just grab an unfair cut from a collectively-owned pool of "resources", is really just hatred of others for being successful.

      Under the current societal philosophy it is clear that some people are indeed entitled to "rewards" based on their "merit" to the society. Capitalism is in fact (a rather feeble - but so far the best available) attempt to bring these rewards in line with merit. And I have no problem per-se with the overall idea, given the current conditions, it is the pathetic implementation that bothers me to no end. The philosophy, as presently applied, is simply wholly internally inconsistent and utterly illogical.

      On a larger scale, wide-scope existential questions remain: what is the "purpose"

    5. Re:Your Religion Is Showing by jahudabudy · · Score: 1

      Excellent post, IgnormausMaximus. That is exactly the point, stated much better than I have ever managed. Thank you.

      --
      ...sometimes, in order to hurt someone very badly, you have to tell that person terrible lies. - PA
    6. Re:Your Religion Is Showing by ElectricRook · · Score: 1

      The defenders of status quo however do wish with all their might to avoid any examination of this fact.

      You need to consider the goal. Do you need to be a famous bazillionaire, or just have a decent lifestyle. You can only have a small population of celebrity billionaires, such as Paris Hilton. With relatively no education (not even high school), she has been able to market her image as a spoiled bad girl to great effect. Her Grandfather died and left her nothing, as she is able to do about $5m with her image.

      Me, I'm happy to work a bit, have a comfortable income, and a decent lifestyle.

      Crooks are the real lazy fools. I've heard about ~30% are very intelligent, so intelligent that they think their superiority will allow them to commit crimes with impunity. Not likely, our prisons are full of very intelligent crooks that failed that litmus test. The others are - well, they rolled a little lower score on the die.

      --
      - High Tech workers, please say NO to Union Carpenters, their Union sees fit to control our compensation.
    7. Re:Your Religion Is Showing by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 1

      Me, I'm happy to work a bit, have a comfortable income, and a decent lifestyle.

      Great. Now consider those who got dealt far shittier cards then you. Born with muscular atrophy or some other debilitating diseases. Born into junkie families in some ghetto. Born in some slum in Africa with no chance to even learn reading and writing. The point of a sane society constructed by sentient, reasonable beings would be to make sure that even those people are given something resembling a "decent lifestyle". Capitalism, as we presently have it, and as some rabid "libertarians" would even "improve" upon its viciousness, is geared to essentially to treat people as meat and consider these individuals as "disposable". What counts is "resources" (exemplified by "money") not actual individuals.

      And then come along veritable assholes claiming that what you are in this society is a direct result of your "smarts and hard work". Well I would like to see one of them make it into a multi-million VP position of some corporation starting with, say, severe cerebral palsy when they are born into some low income family. And that of course not even mentioning the related issue of attribution of credit for that company's "success" between the managers, CEO and the 10,000 employees or so, and the fact that some of these jerks believe it to be 99% or more in the upper levels of management and structure the "rewards" accordingly.

      Face it, random chance plays a pivotal, overriding role in the "success" in our society, and unless we acknowledge this and organize ourselves to account for a very great number of those people for whom the dice rolled snake eyes, we will have all sorts of nasty shit happening to our society, complete with an occasional bloody revolution. Many, if most, people do not take kindly to realization that they've been living a Las Vegas casino while being sold a "system to beat the Roulette" by the very few past winners as a "solution" to this arrangement.

    8. Re:Your Religion Is Showing by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 1

      Her Grandfather died and left her nothing, as she is able to do about $5m with her image.

      Oh, I forgot. You are confused. She will inherit the (poooh wittle) $5 million (after taxes), in addition to her entire socialite life-style being funded up to now by the fortune of her family. That's some "pulling yourself by the bootstraps" you chose to extol as your example, even if one considers her looks (which constitute the entire foundation of her celebrity "assets") to be somehow the results of her own effort and not a win in the DNA casino in the first place ...

    9. Re:Your Religion Is Showing by ElectricRook · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but you can't do much with people who rolled really poorly in health or family. Yes, provide support for the handicapped. About the children of junkies... Can't do much there, cause if you try, you risk becoming a tyrant right from the get-go. Consider that in the 1930's to 1950's Australia considered that children born to Aboriginal natives were going to grow up with a really terrible life. So they took the children away from their families and raised them in boarding schools. So the children grew up with what a British subject would consider a good school education. But the Aboriginal culture was severely damaged. And there was the charge of racism, etc.

      About CEOs... Pretty much every dime they get, goes back out. Unless they are hoarding gold, they are buying stuff that someone got to make and someone else got to sell, that goes for yachts, limos, mansions, plus fancy toys or fancy meals/vacations. If they invest in a new business, that is a good thing too. That's probably how we grew so fast after the second world war, ordinary people got to invest in business instead of just bank savings. So it goes up and down, that's what is expected when one puts money at risk. Over time, I put $7k into a 401k in the late 80's, and never a penny more (into that account). In 2007, it was up to ~$40k, today it's down to ~$21k. So I still have a 3x gain. I have faith that I'll gain that 6x again in ten years.

      Can we just give money to people for doing nothing? Not likely to work well, it's best to give them an opportunity to be something. I'm not too quick to say that people in Africa have it all bad, they have what they're used to. Some have it really bad, where they are being oppressed by others. But that's the nature of Africa. I attend a class with a nurse from South Africa. She said the racism in South Africa is not as much Black vs White, as it is Black tribe vs Black tribe. Relatively small towns have 50 killings a month that don't involve Whites. The incidence of rape is 300%, meaning that the average woman is raped 3x per year. It's basically hate crimes against the other tribe, and that's gonna be hard to fix, and probably not our job.

      --
      - High Tech workers, please say NO to Union Carpenters, their Union sees fit to control our compensation.
    10. Re:Your Religion Is Showing by ElectricRook · · Score: 1

      I don't consider her successful, just because she has lots of $$. Yes, she was born well. But ask your self if she has real friends.

      I used to play the California lottery. Then I almost won- my numbers came up when I did not buy a ticket, really this happened. I played pretty regular, got into a tiff with the missus one night, and forgot to buy a ticket. Anyhow, I stopped kicking myself a few years later. Consider this... If you and I go to a bar, and buy each other rounds, lets say that beers cost $3/ea... that's kind of painful, but we reciprocate. You buy a round, I buy a round, each feels some pain, but we are sharing the pain with each other. That builds a relationship. Now consider if I'm stuck working 40/week, and you are sitting on $80m... are you going to ask me to buy you a round? the interest on $80m at 5% is ~$24,000 a day... That's ~$1,000/hr. For you, you're making money, cause you can't spend it fast enough to reduce your principle. If I buy a few rounds of drinks, I've probably blown my income for the day. Do we have the same friendship? Are you gonna ask me to come by with my pickup to help you cause your mother-in-law gave you a sofa? Not! You don't take hand me down furniture, you probably kick it down to me. Or are you gonna kick two or three $m down to me so that we are on the same par... Are we still friends, or am I just hanging out while you're buying? We certainly ain't peers any more. I think that would really suck.

      So when we share a couple of beers, that is an extravagance, and it only costs $20... We get a pretty fair amount of pleasure from it... But if one of us has $80m, we would not get the same pleasure of of a couple of beers.

      --
      - High Tech workers, please say NO to Union Carpenters, their Union sees fit to control our compensation.
    11. Re:Your Religion Is Showing by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but you can't do much with people who rolled really poorly in health or family. Yes, provide support for the handicapped. About the children of junkies... Can't do much there, cause if you try, you risk becoming a tyrant right from the get-go. Consider that in the 1930's to 1950's Australia considered that children born to Aboriginal natives were going to grow up with a really terrible life. So they took the children away from their families and raised them in boarding schools. So the children grew up with what a British subject would consider a good school education. But the Aboriginal culture was severely damaged. And there was the charge of racism, etc.

      Some form of "tyranny" is pretty much inevitable if these festering societal wounds are to be ever healed and self-perpetuating cycles broken. The problem is of course that the part of the society that tries to do the damage control has to itself be well. Not to mention that simplistic solutions to complicated problems are not likely to be effective either. Case in point: boarding schools do not substitute for parents. If the society was very healthy and capable of sustaining very high levels of satisfaction amongst all kinds of its members, then taking children whose parents suffer from some sort of mental damage (either culture, religion or drug induced) away at a very young age to be raised through adoption would work much better. As to the "destruction of culture" it is meaningless. Culture is in a state of constant flux and attempting to preserve some fragment of it, usually a mess of superstitions, phobias and prejudices, is pretty much pointless. In a span of a few decades it would evolve beyond recognition anyways. Not to mention that most of the so-called "culture" is not worth preserving in the first place.

      About CEOs... Pretty much every dime they get, goes back out.

      Yea, the ever popular "trickle-down" theory ... too bad empirical evidence shows otherwise. The CEO pay is unspendable by an individual, no matter how ostentatious, in the real world, because they earn so much as to rival the GDP of small countries. Since no human being can possibly piss away so much money on toys, they "invest" all of that money into vacuous make-believe shit like stock and "derivative" securities. None of which leaves the closed circle of Wall Street temples, remaining represented as bits in various banking computers, until a time when these "obligations" for one reason or another need to be tested against reality and subsequently pull down the whole economy down with them.

      And then there is of course the teeny-weeny problem of societal justice and correlation of wealth and merit.

      Over time, I put $7k into a 401k in the late 80's, and never a penny more (into that account). In 2007, it was up to ~$40k, today it's down to ~$21k. So I still have a 3x gain. I have faith that I'll gain that 6x again in ten years.

      Give it a few more months and you will be back to $7k or maybe less.

      Also you probably should note, since you are talking gain over time, that the purchasing power of US wages has stagnated (or fell behind, as measured versus productivity) starting back in the 1970 and never moved since. Your 401k, as well as the stock market is rolling you back to that time, and perhaps to times before, pealing off like an onion layer after layer of bogus "trickle-down" and "supply-side" economic mumbo-jumbo.

      Can we just give money to people for doing nothing? Not likely to work well, it's best to give them an opportunity to be something.

      Back to your pre-conceptions that the only motivation for doing anything is greed and that the whole of human life should be measured exclusively in money.

      I'm not too quick to say that people in Africa have it all bad, they have what they're used to. Some have it really bad, where they are being

    12. Re:Your Religion Is Showing by IgnoramusMaximus · · Score: 1

      I don't consider her successful, just because she has lots of $$. Yes, she was born well. But ask your self if she has real friends. ...

      So now you are moving the goalposts. Look, we were discussing here in the context of the economy, CEO pay etc, a particular kind of "success", i.e. the financial variety.

      But if you now want to move onto the whole existential outlook, then one can easily see that people who have enough food to eat, roof over the head, and a lot of friends to goof around with and are not suffering from a mental disease called "greed" are more then likely to consider themselves "successful". As, say, would members of a healthy commune. Or some co-operative or what not.

      But from the point of view of the "economists" and much of the US "culture" these would be classified as "total losers", not even having an individual bank account to their name.

      And this is precisely the point I am trying to illustrate: money, and thus all "capitalist" measurements and systemic assumptions are not the only way to look at things.

  67. Re:Numbers in Asian languages shorter/more logical by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    If something is past its expiration date, you increase the price.

  68. Enough Laready. by gx5000 · · Score: 1

    Bill Gates, give me a break...

    His parents were the richest people on the Pacific Rim at the time...
    Given that kind of support (and the knowledge that you can't fail no matter what)
    how can you not succeed ? Same goes for D Trump, junk Bonds salesman, son of a...wait for it, millionaire (billionaire ? Real Estate investor...) Ugh.

    Iconizing and Idol whorship...blech...

    --
    End of Line.
  69. Don't prop up failed companies by Nerdposeur · · Score: 5, Interesting

    Or, you can let the people who choose to invest in a company decide what sort of compensation is reasonable, and let them pull their investment out of that company if they don't like it. Yeah, I know, no governement job is created in that scenario, and no need to tax private citizens to pay for that job. Bummer!

    I totally agree with you. If a business and its shareholders want to pay their executives 1 hojillion dollars, it's their decision. The executives are an investment, like any other. If the executives bring enough income to the company to justify it, the company wins, and if they don't, the company loses. Or fires them.

    If the company is foolish enough to pay the execs based on short-term gains which ultimately cost them billions, the company loses. Everything works itself out.

    What breaks this system is when the company makes horrific decisions and the taxpayers bail them out. Now we're paying the huge salaries and there's no penalty for bad investment. Guess what that creates? (Hint: not "valuable jobs and products.")

    1. Re:Don't prop up failed companies by ultranova · · Score: 2, Insightful

      If the company is foolish enough to pay the execs based on short-term gains which ultimately cost them billions, the company loses. Everything works itself out.

      Except that the shareholders win. After all, in a highly liquid stock market they can simply sell their stocks as soon as the short-term gains cause the stock price to temporarily rise. This means that for the shareholders, the best kind of exec is exactly the kind who sacrifices long-term viability for short-term gains; the shareholders get the gains and let someone else deal with the mess. Consequently, this kind of behaviour gets rewarded again and again, and repeated by execs of every company until they are all looted empty and the economy collapses, which is happening now.

      So no, it doesn't work itself out. In the current market it is the best strategy, and thus one that a rational actor will engage in again and again, and a fine example of a tragedy of the commons. In order to stop it, we'd need to make the market less liquid, but I can't think of any way to do that which wouldn't cause more problems. Yet stop it we must, or keep facing the rather unpleasant results of parasite economy over and over again.

      Another possible fix would be to somehow twist the market towards favouring small companies over large ones. People tend to have more emotional relationships to small companies, which are often run by the very people who found them, and this deters rational but destructive behaviour. Again, I can't think of a way to do this without causing unintended side effects.

      What breaks this system is when the company makes horrific decisions and the taxpayers bail them out.

      No, what breaks this system is that only the sucker left with the stock when the company folds pays the bill, rather than everyone who took part in the looting. Bailouts make the problem worse, of course, since they remove the risk completely, but the problem would exist even without them.

      Now we're paying the huge salaries and there's no penalty for bad investment. Guess what that creates? (Hint: not "valuable jobs and products.")

      The problem is that it is possibly, even easy, to take short-term gains and have someone else suffer the long-term costs. No one believes that they'll be the one holding the stock when the sucked-dry husk of the company finally gives up the ghost, and in all likelihood they're right. It's simply that with all other companies also in bad state, there will be - and was and is currently happening - a cascade effect of failure.

      Taking short-term gains over long-term ones in a highly liquid market is not a bad investment, but a pretty good one. That's why everyone is doing it. It's simply one that causes the whole market to collapse when everyone is doing it.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    2. Re:Don't prop up failed companies by roystgnr · · Score: 1

      Except that the shareholders win. After all, in a highly liquid stock market they can simply sell their stocks as soon as the short-term gains cause the stock price to temporarily rise.

      So shareholders that can tell the difference between short and long-term gains, and sell their stock when they see the former at the expense of the latter, are rewarded; whereas shareholders who see a short-term gain, then buy the stock without looking to the long-term, are punished?

      Sounds like a good system to me. Of course it's not pleasant that, when 51% of people make bad decisions, 51% of them are punished for it... but it could be worse. In some systems when 51% of people make bad decisions, 100% of them are punished for it.

    3. Re:Don't prop up failed companies by Maxo-Texas · · Score: 1

      If you rob and destroy 10,000 people's lives via fraud, your odds of serving over 5 years is slim.

      If you rob one liquor store or convenience store and get caught, your odds of serving 2 years the first time and then 5 to 10 years the second time is quite high.

      If you smoke one joint, you could do 26 years (tho those days are fading).

      It's only rational to risk 5 years in jail in return for tens of millions of dollars.

      People like Bernie Madoff cross another line tho- he even screwed many of his friends. That's beyond low.

      --
      She was like chocolate when she drank... semi-sweet at first and then increasingly bitter.
    4. Re:Don't prop up failed companies by Lunzo · · Score: 1

      The free market approach also breaks when shareholder votes are non-binding (hint: they are) and the company just ignores the no vote and pays the CEO the huge salary anyway.

    5. Re:Don't prop up failed companies by sabt-pestnu · · Score: 1

      I would say that it is a successful business strategy, if your company has positioned itself so that, in the event that it fails, the government is obligated to bail them out.

      You've shifted risk onto someone else. And if what you did is made illegal, well, that's only one risky behavior out of an infinite number. From the company's perspective, what's not to like?

      "That's a mighty nice economy you've got there. Shame if anything happened to it..."

  70. Two objections from an Asian person by Nebu · · Score: 1

    I am Asian.

    Chapter 3 is far and away the most interesting in the book. It sets forth the so-called 10,000 hour rule, and in its course, shows why Bill Gates and the Beatles succeeded for essentially the same reason. Gladwell begins by noting that musical geniuses such as Mozart, and chess grandmasters, both achieved their status after about 10 years. 10 years is roughly how long it takes to put in 10,000 hours of hard practice. 10,000 hours is the magic number of greatness.

    I used to be really good at DDR. In Konami's official Internet Ranking, I placed 10th place in North America, and 98th place World Wide. I hit my peak after about 2 years of practice.

    I'm a bit past the 10th year of practice now (I started playing around 1997-1998), and I'm nowhere near my previous level. I can't even claim to be within the top 10 of my province anymore, let alone all of North America.

    The fact that Asian languages in many cases use of shorter and more logical words for numbers confers a strong early advantage which, like the age advantage in the hockey player example, snowball significantly over time.

    I really don't know what the author is referring to here. I think the system used by most western cultures is the best numbering system I know. You can judge the magnitude of a number based on the number of digits it contains. You can't do that with roman numerals, and you can't do that with Asian numbering systems. Hopefully I won't need to convince you that the system used by the Romans was terrible.

    In Asian languages 234 is written as äOEç(TM)¾äåå, or literally translated: "[2][100][3][10][4]". Doesn't this seem reminiscent of the Roman system? "CCXXXIV"? The real innovation with the western system was that the position of a digit gave its magnitude. 234 = 2 * 10^2 + 3 * 10^1 + 4 * 10^0. This is what made it so much easier to work with over the Roman system, where you basically had some rules about adding and subtracting digits together (C means 100, so CC means 100 + 100; IV means 5 - 1 = 4). The Asian system is similar to the roman system, but uses multiplicate and addition (äOE means 2 and ç(TM)¾ means 100, so äOEç(TM)¾ means 200; ç(TM)¾äOE means 100 + 2).

    1. Re:Two objections from an Asian person by Nebu · · Score: 1

      (äOE means 2 and ç(TM)¾ means 100, so äOEç(TM)¾ means 200; ç(TM)¾äOE means 100 + 2).

      Oh gosh; it's 2009 and Slashdot still doesn't support Unicode?

    2. Re:Two objections from an Asian person by playerhaku · · Score: 1

      You realize that what you're referring to as the "Western system" was actually developed in India (a part of Asia), right?

    3. Re:Two objections from an Asian person by Fulcrum+of+Evil · · Score: 1

      I don't see any unicode in there. Perhaps you need some %uxxxx instead of assuming UTF8 encoding or something.

      --
      "We returned the General to El Salvador, or maybe Guatemala, it's difficult to tell from 10,000 feet"
    4. Re:Two objections from an Asian person by Joutsa · · Score: 1

      In Asian languages 234 is written as äOEç(TM)¾äåå, or literally translated: "[2][100][3][10][4]".

      Well, it is also the way you read it and pretty straight forward to convert to and from Arabic numbers. On the other hand, European languages reading numbers tend to be more complex:

      In English, that's "two hundred thirty four". "[2][100][3*][4] in your notation, pretty straight forward except for the "thirty". The literal translation from German is "two hundred one and thirty" or "[2][100][4][3*]", which is already a bit weird. And then there are all Latin derived languages that use some variation of the Roman system.

      In Finnish, the reading of numbers has actually changed to resemble the way you described as Asian. The archaic way would translate to "two hundred four of the fourth". The old reading still remains for numbers 11-19, which are also exceptions in every other language I know.

  71. Re:Numbers in Asian languages shorter/more logical by mako1138 · · Score: 1

    Yeah, that statement struck me as odd too. So I googled "malcolm gladwell outliers number system".

    http://ruckingfidiculous.blogspot.com/2009/01/outliers-by-malcolm-gladwell.html

    For example, in Korean, eleven is literally translated to mean ten-one, twelve is ten-two, thirteen is ten-three, and etc. Moreover, twenty is two-ten, thirty is three-ten, and etc. Any non-Korean reader of an IQ of 80 or higher can probably figure out the Korean number system with the two examples I've presented. And there is the key: expectancy. Logic creates expectancy and understanding. In turn, Asian children become more comfortable with numbers and they can memorize numbers quicker and retain them longer.

    So the argument is that there are no "-teen" and "-ty" to trip people up. I dunno. Doing arithmetic is more about internalizing Arabic numerals in a base-10 number system than anything else, so I can see the connection, but it's tenuous.

    Pedagogical methods are more of a factor, I'd say. I never went to Kumon, but some other people I knew certainly did. Drills, drills, and more drills. Ugh. It works, though.

  72. Luck is the refuge of the guilty by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Sane men know that luck is the residue of design. Success is not guaranteed, but it nonetheless is distributed along a curve which closely follows those individuals who play the hand life deals them in a certain manner, and away from those who play them in certain other ways -- or simply throw the cards on the table and whine about it.

    Making the leap from "success is not guaranteed" to "It's all about luck" is the action of those who expect things to be handed to them without effort on their part, and are angry when it isn't; it is a rationalization of the same type and motivation as "The Devil made me do it", or "It's genetic!" or "It's because I'm black/white/red/plaid".

    Their siren call is "I couldn't help it!" The fear often heard in that screech is genuine, though; it is the dread fear of that awesome moral responsibility which is self-authorship -- that each one of us is what we made of ourselves.

  73. Bill/Chris Langen by NinjaCoder · · Score: 1
    The summary mentions "Bill Langen" and says he has the highest IQ measured and was a personal failure.

    I couldn't find a Bill, but I found a Chris Langen. Wikipedia says he was referenced in Outliers...and the article doesn't describe a personal failure to me, rather the opposite, having overcome an abusive childhood to creating a foundation for gifted children to winning big on a gameshow.

    Trailer-trash Dog Brainonaire movie anyone? :-)

  74. Re:Speaking of success... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Q: What do Linux users say when the meet each other on the street?

    A: Nothing! Linux users don't leave their mom's basement!

  75. Re:Steve Martin would have made another great chap by Dogtanian · · Score: 1

    The link doesn't work unless you drop the final slash; http://www.capmag.com/article.asp?ID=5384

    --
    "Slashdot - News and Chat Sites Deviant". (Click "homepage" link above for details).
  76. Just another annoying book by richieb · · Score: 1

    I've read couple of these books, but not "Outliers". I found a bit annoying but couldn't place my finger on it until I read Joel's Review. He's right on the money - the author just states the obvious.....

    --
    ...richie - It is a good day to code.
  77. Hopemongering, Not really scientific by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    The author of this book is playing into everyone's hope that you can control your life.

    But as most psychologists know, genes account for most of the variations in human nature, not experience.

    Here are just a few of the papers for those who want academic proof.

    They show that intelligence, personality, temperament, occupational, and leisure time interests are mostly influenced by your genes.

    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/3397862
    http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/7750369

    http://bernard.pitzer.edu/~dmoore/psych199s03articles/Bouchard.pdf

  78. End of Days of you using this END OF DAYS account by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=1147437&cid=27056793

    See End of Days admit to using multiple accounts to "mod himself up" via multiple username accounts he has here to 'support himself', and to mod others down as well, after he was caught stalking and harassing others repeatedly no less via said nefarious means (transparent though & easily caught). He's talking about being successful here, when the only thing he was successful in here on this website @ least, lol, was being caught doing the lame things he did above... Man - What a loser, and a stupid one at that.

  79. Another factor in asian math is education. by Ungrounded+Lightning · · Score: 1

    A big difference between American- and eastern-heritage students is family support of education.

    Typical US-heritage students are expected to, in addition to studying, be working to earn part of their university costs (and to have done so during the high school years leading up to it). They're also expected to have considerable extra-curricular activity.

    Typical Asian-heritage students have exactly ONE responsibility until they have graduated and become employed professionally: LEARN. The family fully supports the child completely (though perhaps not in royal style), leaving him much more time for studying.

    Result: Asian-heritage students can put a LOT more concentration into learning than American-heritage students. This snowballs over time. And it really shows, especially in those subjects where performance can be measured objectively.

    --
    Bantam Dominique roosters crow a four-note song. Once you've heard it as "Happy BIRTHday" you can't NOT hear it that way
    1. Re:Another factor in asian math is education. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I disagree that American families do not support their children. While I don't know if the bit about college is true, Asian academic success manifests itself pretty early on in K-12.

      While some aspects of academic performance can be enhanced by studying (i.e. studying facts), some of it cannot. You cannot, beyond studying the format of the test, prepare for an IQ test because it is not a "facts" based test but rather a psychometric test (that is, it exercises the mechanics of your brain rather than the things you're stored in it from study). Asians average around ~107 IQ whereas white Americans average maybe 100 IQ.

  80. Re:Numbers in Asian languages shorter/more logical by neurovish · · Score: 1

    I think he means how the number system proceeds logically in decimal increments instead of centennial increments. In Japanese you essentially have 1-10, 100, 1000, 10000, etc. English has new words for each decade up to 100 and doesn't start to "build" numbers until 100 "one hundred twenty three"...which would be "one hundred two ten three" in Japanese. Remember how counting to 100 seemed like such a daunting task? Japanese kids only have to remember 1-10 and 100. They learn earlier than English speakers things like "Fifteen" is one ten and one five and so forth.

  81. Re:Numbers in Asian languages shorter/more logical by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I think that by "logical" they mean that the words for numbers follow the base-10 system as do written numbers. The idea is that exceptions like "eleven" and "twelve", especially so early on in the counting sequence, make learning how to count past 10 (and therefore place value) difficult.

  82. I must take offense at -- by bensafrickingenius · · Score: 2, Funny

    "the world's smartest man is one of the least accomplished."

    I'm happy, and that's what's important to me.

    --
    I am not left-handed, either!
  83. Oppenheimer's likability and ability to empathize? by D4C5CE · · Score: 1

    Prof. Oppenheimer, on the other hand ascended to work on the Manhattan Project though in graduate school he had tried to poison his adviser. [...] an extreme personability in Oppenheimer, which is said to show that success is not a function of hard work or even genius but more of likability and the ability to empathize.

    Can't help thinking the decisive factors for getting at the helm of a project to build the bomb of the day were not exactly compassion and empathy but more in the province of "demonstrably having had no qualms about killing", and probably a presumed yearning to succeed big time on a second chance at that...

  84. Er, mod my previous post down. by bennomatic · · Score: 1

    And now, looking at my logic, I'm thinking that it's not at least one case, it's only one case. Once the sample size is greater than the number of wins required in a row, the line flattens. For N coin tosses, the chances of winning T tosses in a row will always be 1/2^T, regardless of the size of N as long as N>T.

    And N>T is such an obvious assumption that I feel that my previous post, which I thought was insightful at the time, is not really all that great. Sorry for adding to the noise.

    --
    The CB App. What's your 20?
  85. Shareholders do not define executive rewards by justhatched · · Score: 1

    This seems to ignore the director circuit - directors on the boards of large companies is a very small, close-knit group that often make decisions to further their own group.

    Have a look at the list of boards that a director of a large public company is on, ostensibly as proof of their capability, but also representative of the highly inbred and insular nature of the group.

    This group evolves from and rewards the executives who it sees as supporting the group, not some blind egalitarian principle of capitalism.

    Shareholders provide the funds, and this is controlled by majority shareholders, and, yup, the same directors again on different boards.

    Bit like the way government works I suppose.

  86. Duhhhh by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Why can't people just learn there is no such thing as luck or coincidences? It's all the law of attraction!
    Comon people, open your minds

  87. Tip on success by geekymachoman · · Score: 1

    .. write a book about it.

    Since majority are unsuccesful, half of that majority will buy that book. If you sell it in america, that's a whole lot of money.

    In my country, people are writing books on how to make money on internet. Google ads, etc.. and swimming in money cuz of it, even if there's no real trick to it.

    That's what I think about this book, even if I didn't read it. Whole lot of BS. There's nothing in it that, intelligent, thinking, human being doesn't know for itself, without anyone writing it.

    Regarding success itself... you need to have some brain, some skill, a lot of will and enthusiasm, confidence, balls, money (you can't do anything without money, that's the reason people from poor country's and poor people in general, find next to impossible to succeed, and they'r vision of success is to work for other people).

    I know a lot of smart people, people that had a chance, could do great things, but instead.. they live 'without electricity' in some villages, and are broke cuz there's no job, and they are screwed by politics (war, etc.) in general.

    So give me money, give me all resources and education I need, make my parents rich (so I don't have to worry about food and future and failure), and I'll succeed. Only really stupid people can't succeed in those conditions.

  88. Confusing review and some specious arguments by LionMage · · Score: 1

    This book makes a fascinating case that genius is a function of time and not giftedness, validating both Edison's famous saw about 98% perspiration and Feynman's claim that there is no such thing as intelligence, only interest.

    First off, the Edison quote is "1% inspiration and 99% perspiration." This is not to say that inspiration (presumed here to be a product of giftedness) is somehow dispensible. Both are required, so you can't really say that the 1% component is somehow irrelevant.

    The difference is shown to result from an astonishing lack of charisma and a sense of what others are thinking in Langen, and an extreme personability in Oppenheimer, which is said to show that success is not a function of hard work or even genius but more of likability and the ability to empathize.

    Sounds like Langen may have had Asperger's Syndrome, or another similar disorder. It also sounds like Gladwell is cherry-picking his anecdotes to amplify his point.

    The fact that Asian languages in many cases use shorter and more logical words for numbers confers a strong early advantage[...]

    Shorter, I can buy. More logical is a subjective assessment based on criteria we're not privy to. As this is being debated in other threads, I can only conclude that I'm not the only person who finds this claim suspect. While some are attempting to play the role of apologist for this viewpoint, it's not clear to me which of their arguments is the one that Gladwell is using to justify this statement. Furthermore, the comparison with metric units vs. English units isn't very illuminating -- lots of people I know would prefer doing engineering calculations in English units rather than metric, and in truth, the ease of unit conversion in the metric system isn't such a huge advantage in the real world when doing such calculations. The problems always seem to come in when conversions are happening between systems of units (e.g., going from English to metric).

    It is bound to bear out in the minds of many Prof. Richard Feynman's assertion, which we may modify to say that giftedness and IQ are not inherent but conferred by accidents or benefits of culture, or at least via mechanisms that are not obvious.

    Which also completely ignores many studies that show that there is a genetic component to IQ. While IQ is variable, with environment playing a substantial role, it's well established that environment is not the sole factor in intellectual development. According to some studies, the contribution of genetics to IQ is as much as 75% (i.e., 75% of all IQ variances can be attributed to genetic differences). I think the reviewer here may be conflating "success" (what the book is about) with "intelligence" (i.e., giftedness and IQ, which seem to be prerequisites for success but which the book argues are not the dominant factors).

    It has also been said many times, here on Slashdot and elsewhere, that IQ is the best single predictor of future success -- this seems to be derived from The Bell Curve by Herrnstein and Murray. This claim has been attacked numerous times, so I'll leave it to the statistics folks to argue that one. But you can't just ignore the study altogether.

    On a closing note, the review could stand a few extra commas in strategic locations, and maybe some thoughtful reordering of a few sentences to make them clearer.

  89. Feynman by simplerThanPossible · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Feynman's claim that there is no such thing as intelligence, only interest

    Wow, this is what I've always felt. Gotta love the Feynman.

    1. Re:Feynman by DomainDominator · · Score: 1

      Feynman was just being modest. Of course natural intelligence will be the limiting factor on comprehension of material.

  90. Rebutted by Heinlein by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    " Throughout history, poverty is the normal condition of man. Advances which permit this norm to be exceeded -- here and there, now and then -- are the work of an extremely small minority, frequently despised, often condemned, and almost always opposed by all right-thinking people. Whenever this tiny minority is kept from creating, or (as sometimes happens) is driven out of a society, the people then slip back into abject poverty.

            This is known as "bad luck.""

    -- RAH

  91. define success by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    We are each allowed to define personal success any way we please. I live in a society that would like to throw people like me in prison for a long stretch (longer than most murderers get) AND seize all my property, for the crime of gardening. Given that fact, why would I want to do anything that might benefit such a society? So I define success as a life of relative comfort, and nothing more. Anyone who thinks my potential is wasted is right, for multiple definitions of that word.

  92. 10000 hours of internet by ImOnlySleeping · · Score: 1

    I've put in my 10,000 hours of surfing, when do the cheques roll in?

    --
    Everybody seems to think I'm lazy I don't mind, I think they're crazy
  93. Could someone cite Feynman please by heironymous · · Score: 1

    Can anyone shore up the claim that Feynman said this? A bit of googling turned up nothing.

  94. lets not forget luck by Jeff1946 · · Score: 1

    When IBM was looking for an operating system for the PC they approached Digital Research who expressed little interest. Microsoft then jumped at the opportunity. IBM foolishly let Microsoft keep ownership of the software. At that time software was something you gave away to sell the hardware. Growing Microsoft from what it was then to what it is now is certainly at great tribute to Bill Gates' skill. I don't see how very much of his 10,000 hours programing translated into his management skills.

  95. watch him at TED by yopie · · Score: 1

    He gave interesting talk at TED, can watch him at:
    http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/malcolm_gladwell_on_spaghetti_sauce.html

  96. Bill Langen by piers_downunder · · Score: 1

    I'd never heard of the genius-level IQ "Bill Langan", and google reveals very little. Is it possible the reviewer meant he bouncer-philosopher "Christopher Langan"? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Langan

  97. Re:Numbers in Asian languages shorter/more logical by sluser20009 · · Score: 1

    for more on the "Indian methods of calculation", please google for "vdedic mathematics" or 'vedic maths' interesting stuff.

  98. Chapter 6 was the most interesting to me. by F34nor · · Score: 1

    I live in the Gulf and everyday I wonder why this places sucks as hard as it does. Chapter 6 explained clearly why no matter what you do the middle east and south Asia will always be deeply fucked. It depressing but if you have ever driven in the gulf and wondered what was wrong with all these people now you know.

  99. End of the days using account "The End of Days" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The End of Days admits his posting via diff. multiple registered account names (each is he), to mod himself up no doubt, to make it appear others supported him as well as using ac posts done by 'The End of Days' to do the latter also here yesterday -> http://slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=1147437&cid=27056793 That was laughable and low, as well as stupid in being caught doing that.

  100. Guns Germs & Steel by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    by Jared Diamond.
    Everyone in this thread should go read it. It clears a lot of things up (and you don't have to muddle your way through imagined reasons for seeming differences between first and third world people anymore).

  101. Re:French units English units by plutoXL · · Score: 1

    "English system" is "standard"? Yes, in US, Liberia and Myanmar. I guess lumberjack and liquid dividers' lobby is still too strong.
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/17/Metric_system.png

  102. Statutory warning for sensitive, thoughtful minds by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    To learn how to figure out the systems that drive this universe works, you need 10,000 hours of scientific observation and thinking.

    Not dogma, not conclusions, not written notes, not diagrams, not analyses, but 10,000 hours of recognizing patterns and scientifically explaining them, making analogies, extrapolating a set of patterns in one field to another field, in imagination, to see if it fits with some observations in the other field.

    BUT,

    Remember, 10,000 hours spent observing wrongly or irrationally produces an expert in irrational and unscientific thinking! Quite mathematically.

    And 10,000 hours of obsessed thinking produces a permanent thought-habit of that particular obsession. Again, dangerous.

    So when you choose your subject of study or field of effort for 10,000 hours, make sure it is not occult, crooked or opportunistic. Being scientific, wise and peaceful is far far more useful and effective than being an obsessed inventor. Sometimes, creative inventors are faced with the worst frustrations of intellectual life.
    Ask Elizabeth Gilbert, of "Eat Pray Love" fame.

    Scientific answers for everything will help you explain and understand systems that you dont know much about, much quicker than if you were untrained.

    A last thing, always ever compete with yourself alone when in intellectual compay. Competing with others is the job of lowly traders and commercial minded people, not of scientists. Good scientists never inhibit the transfer of knowledge among other scientists. Intellectual Property is a poison that has destroyed clean scientific cooperation to quite an extent And the people who benefit from Intellectual Property are not scientists, but investors and business executives. If you want to become a pure scientist or an applied scientist (research/engineering), remember this: IP is a plague that will *dramatically* reduce your ability to understand and adapt to new knowledge because you've taught your brain to put roadblocks in your thought process, diversions, distractions towards the greed chemcials and gratification circuitry in your brain. It's not the curcuitry that produces real insight into new knowledge without experiment.
    TO be a good intuitive problem solver, you must be possess a completel open mind about the field of your study. If you choose to study life itself, it is mandatory that you seek personal assistance from an established thinker - there are many of them approachable today - blogs, email, websites and online videos.

    If you adopt a few checks routinely, becoming a thinking man, an analyst, a scientist is probably the most intellectually and *ethically* rewarding way of life. Been there, seen that. It's cool!
    Again, dont do anything in the extreme, and dont count the hours, minutes or seconds. Making 10,000 a tangible target is essentially aborting the mission at the start.

    Don't measure the fruits, water the roota - take care of the pennies and the pounds will take care of themselves.
    Don't indulge in much irrational or fantasy thought, although you must read/watch averity of science-fiction and learn things - patterns and routines - from it.

  103. luck in terms of family - preston gates by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    law and business fraternity.
    Power circles. Money circles. Expert advise of someone ELSE who had spent more than 10,000 hours making money. That helps majorly because that means standing on the shoulders of giants!

    In that sense, Open source code already adds 10,000 hours to your program :-)
    Your chance of you program working well is suddenly much higher because a lot of your code is already 10k compliant.

    Opensource adds this awesome 10k compliance to every derivative program. Now the question is, did RMS know this 10k compliance standard ?
    Sure he did - they used to share code to stop reinventing the wheel.

    so, open source software is an **outliers factory**
    w00t!

  104. A great book for those interested in education by ligt · · Score: 1

    I loved this book. As a teacher it altered a lot of my opinions on education and affirmed others. This book should be mandatory reading in school boards and teacher's colleges everywhere. After reading the book I read several of his sources and wrote my own paper on the topic of age segregation in schools. Age segregation is just one of the many topics (I think its really the first he talks about) he uses to build his argument. My favorite book of 2008.