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US, Russia Reach Nuclear Arsenal Agreement

Peace Corps Library writes "The United States and Russia, seeking to move forward on one of the most significant arms control treaties since the end of the cold war, announced that they had reached a preliminary agreement on cutting each country's stockpiles of strategic nuclear weapons, effectively setting the stage for a successor to the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (Start), a cold war-era pact that expires in December. Under the framework, negotiators are to be instructed to craft a treaty that would cut strategic warheads for each side to between 1,500 and 1,675, down from the limit of 2,200 slated to take effect in 2012 under the Treaty of Moscow (PDF) signed by President George W. Bush. The limit on delivery vehicles would be cut to between 500 and 1,100 from the 1,600 currently allowed under Start. Perhaps more important than the specific limits would be a revised and extended verification system that otherwise would expire with Start in December. The United States currently has 1,198 land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-based missiles and bombers, which together are capable of delivering 5,576 warheads, according to its most recent Start report in January, while Russia reported that it has 816 delivery vehicles capable of delivering 3,909 warheads. 'We have a mutual interest in protecting both of our populations from the kinds of danger that weapons proliferation is presenting today,' said President Obama."

413 comments

  1. Fallout by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Funny

    boooo, there goes my hopes of one day having a child that would roam the wastelands and be the savior of all humanity.

    1. Re:Fallout by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      the way Russia looks like a democratically elected government but is actually run by a bunch of organized criminals, i fear that you might get your wasteland

    2. Re:Fallout by Sporkinum · · Score: 1

      Don't worry...there are still plenty of ways to create wastelands. The trinity of Nuclear, Biological, and Chemical is still around. You can add robot and grey goo to the mix in a few decades/centuries.

      --
      "He's lost in a 'floyd hole"
    3. Re:Fallout by Big+Hairy+Ian · · Score: 2, Funny

      Don't worry if they both keep cutting their arsenals like this they will just leave themselves at the mercy of China. BTW this child saviour of yours does he have a talking dog?

      --

      Build a Man a Fire, and He'll Be Warm for a Day. Set a Man on Fire, and He'll Be Warm for the Rest of His Life.

    4. Re:Fallout by kestasjk · · Score: 4, Interesting

      China is also reducing its arsenal, it's the trendy thing since the people like it and you can still keep enough weapons to destroy your enemies several times over.

      --
      // MD_Update(&m,buf,j);
    5. Re:Fallout by tarius8105 · · Score: 1

      If you hear news of a 80 foot tall walking robot named Liberty Prime, I would say start walking to your designated vault-tec vault and prepare for the apocolypse.

    6. Re:Fallout by NerdyLove · · Score: 1

      Oy, that sounds scary.

    7. Re:Fallout by Shakrai · · Score: 2, Insightful

      China is also reducing its arsenal

      Citation needed. China has not been very open or forthcoming at all with regards to their weapons programs, nuclear or conventional. In fact they are currently in the process of building new ballistic missile submarines and deploying road mobile ICBMs. How is this compatible with "reducing" their arsenal?

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    8. Re:Fallout by kestasjk · · Score: 2, Informative

      The DOD table followed a fact sheet published by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs in April 2004, which stated: "Among the nuclear-weapon states, China...possesses the smallest nuclear arsenal." Since Britain has declared that it has less than 200 operationally available warheads, and the United States, Russia, and France have more, the Chinese statement could be interpreted to mean that Chinaâ(TM)s nuclear arsenal is smaller than Britainâ(TM)s.

      Link

      --
      // MD_Update(&m,buf,j);
    9. Re:Fallout by Shakrai · · Score: 1, Informative

      Happy now dickshit?

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    10. Re:Fallout by Shakrai · · Score: 1

      Having the smallest arsenal != reducing their arsenal. They are in the process of modernizing and expanding their arsenal. See the Type 94 submarines and road mobile DF-31 missiles for more information. They are also expanding their conventional forces and are not being particularly forthcoming with their goals or intentions.

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    11. Re:Fallout by interkin3tic · · Score: 1

      What are you talking about? China could still invade Alaska, precipitating the whole thing. Especially with Palin stepping down, she was the only thing standing between the commies and the US!

    12. Re:Fallout by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      A citation is being modded flamebait, but the guy screaming fuckwad isn't? Pathetic.

    13. Re:Fallout by debrisslider · · Score: 4, Interesting

      The Chinese actually have a really smart nuclear policy: no first use. In a nuclear war, there are different kinds of targets: counterforce (sending warheads to blow up other warheads in an attempt to minimize retaliation) and countervalue (detonating warheads over strategic cities). The Chinese have never had the arsenal necessary to threaten a convincing first strike (the whole purpose of a first strike being to do enough damage to another nation's capacity to strike back that losses are kept to an 'acceptable' amount), but they have had just enough capability to threaten a significant counterstrike to the aggressor's cities. The whole point of submarine and mobile missiles is to maintain the ability to send a large enough retaliatory response if a nation implements a nuclear strike against them; Britain's entire nuclear arsenal is submarine-based so that it would be impossible to wipe out a strategically meaningful amount of their total capacity (submarines carry MIRV'd missiles, which are basically impossible to defend against with any modern antiballistic missile system). Having a hidden, unpredictable, mobile striking capacity is actually a good thing: it keeps everyone honest. While there's always the possibility of limited war, with such a small arsenal, there'd be no way to meaningfully survive a counterattack and hence no reason to initiate war, and similiarly, with a sub and truck based launch platform, there's no way to guarantee you'd be able to take out enough of their retaliatory capacity in a first strike.

      I can't speak to the buildup of their conventional capacity, but China's nuclear intentions are about as honest as you're going to get from a nuclear power.

    14. Re:Fallout by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      Reducing? They seem to be upgrading.

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    15. Re:Fallout by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Don't worry, if this reduction brings the number of warheads below the threshold for MAD to work then it will actually increase the likelihood of nuclear exchanges.

    16. Re:Fallout by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

      He's a female, you sexist clod!!!!!

      --
      Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
    17. Re:Fallout by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In about 20 years or so, China will be allies with Canada. If Harper were smart, he'd start this now.

      Expect about 20 million PLA on the 49th parallel.

    18. Re:Fallout by Dark_MadMax666 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Same exact thing could be said about US. just US organized crime is much more refined as they had time to cultivate from robber barons to CEOs. Russia "ruling elite" had to grind they teeth in mob wars just recently -in 1990s

    19. Re:Fallout by Gilmoure · · Score: 1

      What? No Ninjas, Pirates, or Monkeys?

      --
      I drank what? -- Socrates
    20. Re:Fallout by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're still a fuckwad.

      Fuckwad.

    21. Re:Fallout by kestasjk · · Score: 2, Informative

      It does mean that if they didn't used to have the smallest arsenal, and that's a matter of public record. Citation needed, citation given. End of story.

      --
      // MD_Update(&m,buf,j);
    22. Re:Fallout by ciderVisor · · Score: 1

      How about a nice game of chess ?

      --
      Squirrel!
    23. Re:Fallout by sumdumass · · Score: 1

      The entire reason there are enough weapons to destroy the enemy many times over is because if I strike your nuke sites first, you can't retaliate.

      That's what MAD was all about and why we have so many of them. With less and less weapons, it's possible that one day a Nuclear war will be on the table as a conventional way of winning a war as long as one country can get first strike in the right places. It wouldn't really matter if your country got hit once or twice before taking their nukes out as you would have them at your mercy by then.

    24. Re:Fallout by Tubal-Cain · · Score: 1

      Don't worry...there are still plenty of ways to create wastelands.

      Why not use what we have before creating more?

    25. Re:Fallout by Tubal-Cain · · Score: 1

      The entire reason there are enough weapons to destroy the enemy many times over is because if I strike your nuke sites first, you can't retaliate.

      Which is the entire reason boomers were created.

    26. Re:Fallout by mjwx · · Score: 1

      China is also reducing its arsenal,

      Possibly because China doesn't want to pay the costs of keeping those weapons any more. It's expensive to keep weapons secure and you have to keep nuclear weapons secure otherwise your enemies may get them, China has enemies (not the US, for any jingoistic morons reading this) and they are closer to home then in most western countries.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
    27. Re:Fallout by mjwx · · Score: 2, Insightful

      They are in the process of modernizing and expanding their arsenal. See the Type 94 submarines and road mobile DF-31 missiles for more information.

      This really doesn't prove anything. China is upgrading everything, their weapons tech is still behind that of Russia, let alone NATO. They still don't have a locally produced 4th generation fighter when Europe and the US have their 5th gen fighters flying and Russia's is nearing completion.

      are not being particularly forthcoming with their goals or intentions.

      Neither are NATO or Russia. You don't publicise military secrets, this is not an indication of bad intents or dreams of conquest.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
  2. Oh please .. by terbo · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Just destroy your selves so we can go back to our huts and tipis, thanks.

    --
    If you're interested in facts I'll tell you what they are and I'll give you sources - Chomsky on The Big Idea
  3. Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by eldavojohn · · Score: 5, Interesting

    The indefinite combinations of human fallibility and nuclear weapons will lead to the destruction of nations. - Robert S. McNamara

    Slightly offtopic but in high school I read a few books by Robert S McNamara who died yesterday. It's too bad he didn't get to see this agreement between old enemies. He was Secretary of Defense from 1961-1968. Although I did not agree with a lot of his views he shaped a lot of the nuclear buildup during the cold war. I believe he was responsible for abandoning Eisenhower's policy of massive retaliation in the event of a nuclear war. He was first tasked by Kennedy of explaining nuclear fallout. McNamara favored non-nuclear power and one of the books I read "In Retrospect: The Tragedy and Lessons of Vietnam" shed a lot of light on the Vietnam war for me.

    If you haven't seen Erol Morris' "The Fog of War" you should.

    Rest in peace Robert Strange McNamara. You revealed to me the horrors that leadership must face during war.

    --
    My work here is dung.
    1. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by castironpigeon · · Score: 2, Insightful

      That's ok, the entire article is off topic for /. unless someone wants to argue that nuclear war would put an end to all modern technology and other nerdly pursuits so news about nuclear disarmament is nerd news. Meh

      --
      mmmm...forbidden donut
    2. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by readin · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Slightly offtopic but in high school I read a few books by Robert S McNamara who died yesterday [nytimes.com]. It's too bad he didn't get to see this agreement between old enemies

      Don't feel too bad. He did get to see the far more important breakthrough agreements negotiated and signed by Presidents Reagan and Bush 41.

      --
      I often don't like the choices people make, but I like the fact that people make choices. That's why I'm a conservative.
    3. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by FesterDaFelcher · · Score: 2, Informative

      It's too bad he didn't get to see this agreement between old enemies.

      Srlsy? It's not like this is the first such agreement.

      --
      My user number is prime. Is yours?
    4. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by MozeeToby · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I've really got to love our society. A more than slightly crazy musician and probable child molester dies and it's all the news can talk about for three weeks as people cry in the streets and memorial concerts are held all over the country. A man who was partially responsible for guiding the world through the cold war without destroying modern civilization dies and no one even knows who he is.

    5. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by bogjobber · · Score: 3, Insightful

      In case you did not know, the massive nuclear buildup by the US in the 1950's and 1960's was largely based on incomplete intelligence and a great deal of incompetence by the Eisenhower and (much less so) the Kennedy administrations. Although McNamara recognized that the US had a large advantage in both nuclear warheads and delivery systems, he still continued the massive buildup in nuclear weapons started by Eisenhower and pushed the idea of mutually assured destruction. It led to the greatest period of nuclear tension we ever had, and almost led us to nuclear war.

      In the 1950's the US thought the Soviets were greatly increasing their nuclear arsenal in order to gain first strike capabilities. This was false and not supported by strong intelligence, and many in the Eisenhower administration did not take proper precautions to ensure this was correct. The US initiated a period of nuclear proliferation that was understandably viewed by the Soviets as an attempt to gain first strike capability, and they quickly followed suit with their own nuclear buildup.

      Mr. McNamara did not abandon the idea of massive retaliation, he actually advanced it. He said himself said (paraphrasing) that it was pure luck that we did not end up in a nuclear war during the Cuban missile crisis. He also continued the ludicrous notion of the domino theory which led to the escalation of the Vietnam War under his command.

      Also, (taken from the NY Times book review of his autobiography) he realized relatively early in the Vietnam war that it could not be won by military force, but did not fight for his opinion and didn't take a public stance on that position until the 1990's. He and the Kennedy/Johnson/Nixon administrations destroyed the common trust and confidence in our government, which still has far-reaching consequences today. He oversaw one of the largest expansions of the US military in history, which can be directly traced to our ridiculous defense policy and budget today.

      Mr. McNamara was a brilliant man, but he is a symbol of how arrogance and loyalty to authority dragged our country to the brink of destruction. Combined with his (and the rest of the government's) mismanagement of the Vietnam War, Mr. McNamara is certainly not a politician that will be missed by me.

    6. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Perhaps now that he's looking down from above he realizes that the only governments are enemies -- not the people of either nation who have never even met.

    7. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by maxume · · Score: 1

      I haven't read McNamara's stuff, but H.R. McMaster offers a pretty critical view of the run-up to Vietnam in "Dereliction of Duty". He goes further than calling things that happened mistakes and errors in judgment.

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    8. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by u38cg · · Score: 1

      Hmm. His importance in avoiding a nuclear holocaust is debatable, and given his managerial style he would not have been a good man to have in place had it kicked off. In the meantime, he was largely responsible for the Vietnam debacle, which killed ten times the number of Americans as the current "war on terror" has.

      --
      [FUCK BETA]
    9. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by eln · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Well, as the number of nuclear missiles is reduced, the number of times each country could completely destroy the other is likewise reduced. For example, if the US and Russia could utterly destroy each other 30 times over with their current arsenals, reducing those arsenals by half would mean they could only completely annihilate each other a pitiful 15 times. So, think of it as a mathematics exercise. That's kind of geeky, right?

    10. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by Shakrai · · Score: 2, Insightful

      A more than slightly crazy musician and probable child molester dies and it's all the news can talk about for three weeks as people cry in the streets and memorial concerts are held all over the country. A man who was partially responsible for guiding the world through the cold war without destroying modern civilization dies and no one even knows who he is.

      You forgot the part where the crazy probable child molester pushed the coverage of the struggle in Iran off the front pages.......

      Fourth estate indeed.

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    11. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by kaiser423 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You don't think that one of the most technically advanced and mind-blowing weapons every created is geeky?

      Now this article might not be geek-a-riffic, but the fact remains that nuclear warheads, the science behind them, and all of the crazy software/hardware that goes into them is extremely geeky.

    12. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by funkatron · · Score: 1

      He got news coverage last night. Seemed like a good excuse for a beer. The loss of someone partially responsible for one of the most pointless periods of scumbaggery in modern history deserves a little celebration.

      --
      "Welcome to our world. We are the wasted youth. And we are the future too." Yes, I know these are stupid lyrics.
    13. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by SydShamino · · Score: 1

      Nuclear holocaust brings about post-apocalyptic wastelands. If sci fi genres aren't on-topic for Slashdot, it should just rename itself The Linux Channel (or LyCy) and kick the rest of us out.

      --
      It doesn't hurt to be nice.
    14. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

      When you say "partially responsible for guiding the world through the cold war without destroying modern civilization", are you referring to Billy Jean or Beat It?

    15. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by LWATCDR · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Okay.
      1. I am not and have never really been a fan of MJ but that fact that you must thrust him even into this shows you are part of the problem of which you speak. He is dead and I feel sorry for his family.
      2. McNamara sucked. No really he was a walking talking disaster area. The complete re writing of history around JFK drives me nuts. McNamara and JFK over saw the largest increase in the nuclear stock pile in history. He made no agreements involving arms control except the Nuclear Test Band Treaty which was a good thing I will give you.
      Eisenhower tried to talk the the USSR about weapons but the U2 over flight really killed it. Eisenhower was really trying to limit the growth in arms and for some reason people forget that Kennedy ran on "The Missile Gap" to show that the republicans where weak on defense.
      Then we have the Bay of Pigs disaster.
      And the Cuban Missile Crisis
      Then we have Vietnam.
      McNamara's strange ideas in weapons development. He thought that since Ford could make several different models from one car the military could make a Navy fighter and an Air Force bomber out of the same plane. That actually produced a good bomber for the Air Force even if it was more expensive and complex than it needed to be. The fighter got canned after a lot of money was poured into it.
      Over all I agree with the idea that in general is a stupid waste of effort. Every thing else is just as silly.

      --
      See my blog http://ilovecookes.blogspot.com/ for light hearted technical information.
    16. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by Ksevio · · Score: 1

      Clearly you're not a listener of NPR as they devoted roughly half their airtime to him yesterday

    17. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by Hatta · · Score: 1

      I know who he is, a war criminal.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    18. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Touché. Couldn't have put it better.

    19. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by b4upoo · · Score: 1

      I'm not certain that McNamara's views on the Vietnam war mean a thing. Underneath that war was one simple fact and that is that we absolutely guaranteed that France would not be allowed back into Vietnam following WWII. America lied and broke that promise. The entire flow of events rests upon that simple fact. Vietnam supported the US during WWII and that guarantee was the promised payment for the services that Vietnam provided.
                  Vietnam concluded that the US was not trustworthy and that treaties and agreements could not exist with the US due to our dishonesty. So that formed allegiances with the Soviet Union. That led to a nasty and pointless war.

    20. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by b4upoo · · Score: 1

      You forgot drug addict and race traitor. Not only was Jackson trying to turn white he only married white girls. Frankly he was effeminate, a child molester a drug addict and all around creep.
              That just goes to show us all what can happen in life as he was one of the cutest little kids I've ever seen when he was a boy with the Jackson Five.

    21. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by jmorris42 · · Score: 0, Offtopic

      > You forgot the part where the crazy probable child molester pushed the
      > coverage of the struggle in Iran off the front pages.......

      Only because they wanted a reason to stop covering Iran anyway. The administration clearly didn't want to be talking about Iran. Because it is becoming increasingly clear that they are on the other side of that issue from where the civilized world is and know it is a losing issue for them.

      Think I'm being extreme by implying we are now part of the Axis of Evil? Well consider the available evidence. Our government supports the Mad Mullahs in Iran. We support Castro, Chavez and Danny Ortega in trying to put a tyrant back in Honduras. We have accepted the Nork's Nuke ambitions as a fait accompli[1] and have all but admitted we can't/won't stop Iran from getting the Bomb. And on today's topic we still deal with Russia as if they were still the Soviet Union... as if they still mattered; when in reality petty Evil is about all they are good for these days. The Russians are going to reduce their nuke stockpiles anyway, they can't afford to maintain their old stockpiles, have few resources to devote to designing new ones, etc.

      It is clear the average Iranian no longer wants to be a part of the Axis of Evil, I'd bet good money the average Nork wishes Kim would frickin' die and they could reunify with the South and get a square meal once in awhile. Cubans vote with their boats even though many die trying to escape. The Hondurans are pretty much unified in their desire to keep their Republic but will almost certainly end up being invaded while we either stand silent or actually help oppress them. So now we join the list of Axis members whose people don't approve of the evil being done in their name but are apparently powerless to change their regime.

      --
      Democrat delenda est
    22. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by Anspen · · Score: 1

      There was no "Vietnam" there was only Ho Chi Min's resistance, which had little communication with the allies. Also it was actually the British that reocupied French Indochina.

      The "betrayal" of the USA was that it asked for a UN sponsered referendum on the joining of North and south Vietnam. When they say the communist would win it, they abandoned that plan.

    23. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by Perky_Goth · · Score: 1

      At least he made some worthwhile contribution to the world. In the Iberian Peninsula, all we hear about is Cristiano Ronaldo...
      Sigh.

    24. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by Ciaran+Power · · Score: 1

      probable child molester

      It's a bit much to call him a probable child molester when there's never been any evidence to support that. Not a massive Jackson fan but that's my understanding of things.

    25. Re:Robert Strange McNamara 1916 - 2009 by 4D6963 · · Score: 1

      People remember him, partly for sending hundreds of thousands of American troops to the slaughter that Vietnam turned into. People rarely laud your name for choosing to lead a war of attrition on an enemy we hardly even care about by sending more and more of your own people until all of the enemies have been killed with little regard for how many of your troops die in the process.

      How many people did Michael Jackson send to their death? Do we even know for sure if he did anything perverted during his sleepovers with his child friends? Sure he was one weird motherfucker, but I don't think anyone can say with certainty that he was a pervert.

      --
      You just got troll'd!
  4. This is good news for science... by Bill_the_Engineer · · Score: 1

    This could mean even more cheap launch vehicles for satellites, since launching missiles is a good way of reducing their numbers...

    --
    These comments are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of my employer or colleagues...
    1. Re:This is good news for science... by decsnake · · Score: 1

      not really. the minuteman vehicles have been available for a while for civilian launch vehicles as the minotaur. OSC basically takes a minuteman that the AF is throwing away, cleans it up a little and resells it to the govt for $20 million. Go free market!!

    2. Re:This is good news for science... by Bill_the_Engineer · · Score: 1

      I meant cheap for science, not for the government in general...

      BTW, it involves a little more than just cleaning up a minuteman...

      --
      These comments are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of my employer or colleagues...
    3. Re:This is good news for science... by SEWilco · · Score: 1

      You have it backwards. He wants to reduce nuclear weapons, not missiles.
      So put all your satellites in one pile, use an Orion drive to launch them, and the number of nuclear bombs will be reduced during a cheap launch. (Well, the per-satellite launch figure will be cheap...)

    4. Re:This is good news for science... by Bill_the_Engineer · · Score: 1

      You have it backwards. He wants to reduce nuclear weapons, not missiles.

      Please read the actual article. Here's an excerpt:

      "Under Monday's agreement, the Start successor treaty would reduce the ceiling on strategic warheads to somewhere between 1,500 and 1,675 warheads within seven years, down from the current ceiling of 2,200 warheads by 2012.

      Here's the relevant part:

      The limit on delivery vehicles -- land-based intercontinental missiles, submarines-based missiles and bombers -- would be somewhere from 500 to 1,100, down from the 1,600 currently allowed.

      This means there's a possibility of 500 to 1,100 missiles that need to be disposed (Coincidentally 1,600 minus the range given in the article equals the range given in the article).

      --
      These comments are my own and do not necessarily reflect the views or opinions of my employer or colleagues...
    5. Re:This is good news for science... by SEWilco · · Score: 1

      What, now we have to read the article?
      Well, just put the missiles under the Orion drive. Problem solved.

  5. Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by fantomas · · Score: 4, Insightful

    BBC radio is reporting this will bring the USA and Russia down to owning a mere 95% of the world's nuclear weapons. Go USA! Go Russia!

    Seriously, good work both countries for making a step in the right direction. But keep going, you've got a long way to go before you can start preaching to countries with a dozen or nuclear weapons about the need for restraint.

    1. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by oneirophrenos · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Is there really that much difference in having a thousand or having a dozen? Could the country with a dozen warheads not fuck any other country beyond repair or redemption just as well as one with a thousand nukes?

    2. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 4, Insightful

      As one of the Rand Corporation's stone cold game theorists said, those would be "tragic, but distinguishable, outcomes".

      Nuclear weapons are powerful, extremely so by the standards of just about anything else(short of real sci-fi stuff, or fuel air bombs representing a week of the western world's refinery output); but they are hardly powerful enough that a dozen and a thousand are the same.

      Even if we overestimated and supposed that, for ease of calculation, a single nuclear strike could completely eliminate a city, all but the very smallest countries have substantially more than 12 cities, and a fair amount of hinterland. Not to mention the fact that unpleasant side effects like nuclear winter and social chaos, which would presumably do most of the killing after the first couple of days, would be far more severe with more warheads rather than fewer.

    3. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by A.+B3ttik · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I don't think a dozen nukes would cripple the US beyond repair... not by a long shot. It would be like a dozen hurricane Katrina's and the economy would go to shit but for the most part, the survivor's lives would still be better than 95% of the rest of the world's and we'd still be eating at restuarants and driving nice cars to work. it's not like we'd be roaming the wastelands eating Iguana-on-a-Stick or anything like that.

    4. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by A.+B3ttik · · Score: 4, Insightful

      But keep going, you've got a long way to go before you can start preaching to countries with a dozen or nuclear weapons about the need for restraint.

      I don't buy that. One madman with a nuke is worse than a peaceful leader with a thousand nukes.

      It's not our number of nukes that allows us to preach to Iran and N. Korea, it's the fact that our leaders are held to certain standards. Our presidents get in trouble for misspeaking or forgetting to bow or not dispensing enough foreign aid; the leaders of the aforementioned countries give speeches advocating genocide... to thunderous applause.

    5. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      it's not like we'd be roaming the wastelands eating Iguana-on-a-Stick or anything like that.

      Hah-hah, I played that game TOO! Please, everyone, keep making references to it, they are always so funny and never get old. Evar!

    6. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by dkleinsc · · Score: 4, Interesting

      As one of the Rand Corporation's stone cold game theorists said, those would be "tragic, but distinguishable, outcomes".

      General Turgidson: Mr. President, we are rapidly approaching a moment of truth both for ourselves as human beings and for the life of our nation. Now, truth is not always a pleasant thing. But it is necessary now to make a choice, to choose between two admittedly regrettable, but nevertheless *distinguishable*, postwar environments: one where you got 20 million people killed, and the other where you got a 150 million people killed.

      President Muffley: You're talking about mass murder, General, not war!

      General Turgidson: Mr. President, I'm not saying we wouldn't get our hair mussed. But I do say no more than 10 to 20 million killed, tops. Uh, depending on the breaks.

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    7. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 5, Interesting

      It is either amusing or disturbing; but that part of Dr. Strangelove is very nearly a string of quotations from actual military theorists. One Herman Kahn in particular.

    8. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      You're selling them short. In two and a half decades, the two nations have dismantled most of the world's entire nuclear stockpile. Compared to the Cold War era it's some kind of miracle. There's a hell of a lot left to do - if the US would ratify the CTBT* it would be an even bigger step in preventing nuclear warfare - but there's a hell of a lot that's been done.

      * (They're the most prominent annex II state that has not yet ratified the CTBT, and conversely their ratifying the treaty would be a big political impetus to getting the other holdouts on board. China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Israel, North Korea, and Pakistan are the other annex II states whose signing and ratification would make the CTBT come into force.)

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    9. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by wisty · · Score: 1

      Forget game theory. Consider the consequences of agency theory - a 5% reduction in arms is a 5% budget cut to the department responsible for the nukes. It benefits nations to reduce arms significantly (through multilateral treaties) to the point where they are only left with a reasonable deterrent, and enough ground troops to respond to disasters. But no defense department would recommend it, or push for the treaties.

    10. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "Our presidents get in trouble..."

      haha.
      good one.

    11. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by ConceptJunkie · · Score: 1

      What? No "killah cockroaches"?! This post-nuclear-holocaust world is sounding less and less appealing every day.

      Besides, I'm not so sure a dozen nukes wouldn't cripple the U.S. Those flatworms in Congress and the White House are doing their best to cripple to U.S. over global warming, the bad economy or the fact that a small percentage of the country doesn't have proper health coverage.

      p.s. Apologies to flatworms.

      --
      You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
    12. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by OeLeWaPpErKe · · Score: 0, Troll

      Actually the problem with nuclear warheads is that they're supposed to destroy an enemy's capability of war - they're not meant to simply destroy lives. Putin, after all, prefers to use proxy countries for that.

      The problem is that a nuclear weapon is actually quite limited. A 10 megaton nuclear warhead will only destroy all infrastructure within a circle of 200-300 meters. Especially things like roads and rails are very, very hard to destroy, yet they are the backbone of a country's military efforts, since they represent the supply lines. If you cut supply lines to an army, you have won the war. That's what nuclear weapons would in reality be used for : creating a (tiny) zone of inaccessible land between an army and it's supporting country or bases.

      Btw: The effects of a nuclear warhead decrease with the square of the distance (at best), or with the third power of the distance. A 100 megaton nuclear warhead only increases the destruction distance by a factor of 2. A 250 megaton warhead (the largest in existence) will only destroy a bunker when exploded less than 500 meters from it's walls. A 250 megaton warhead, will only destroy a modern office building at less than a kilometer.

      Therefore, to transform a tiny, rural city with some 2000 inhabitants into permanent wasteland you'd need a 100 megaton bomb. A hiroshima bomb would simply not do the job (completely). To destroy a city like New York, you need more than a few thousand 250 megaton devices.

      And another salient detail : fallout may be deadly, or at least a carcinogen to humans, it really helps plants and animals grow. Some plants are capable of directly harnessing radiation from radioactive decay. Another observation : It will not lead to three-eyed fish, or even slight mutations in all but the largest possible animals. Sensitivity to fallout is directly proportional to the size of the animal (and the way of contamination : ingesting radioactive material is worse than sleeping on it). Humans are simply too large and too sensitive a system to take much fallout, but cats will take amazing amounts without breaking a sweat. Mouse, rats and others are all but unkillable by radiation.

      Nuclear weapons aren't the world-ending devices their reputations claim them to be. Nor do they totally destroy the environment. They are certainly not capable of changing the world into barren wasteland, no matter how many are fired.

    13. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Hatta · · Score: 3, Insightful

      One madman with a nuke is worse than a peaceful leader with a thousand nukes.

      One nuke in American hands justifies the arsenal of every madman out there. As long as America holds a single nuke, any dictator can point to it and argue that he has a sovereign right to self-defense against American aggression. Do as I say, not as I do never works. It's far more dangerous to have these things than to not have them. We need a clear, unambiguous policy that nukes are absolutely forbidden for every state with no double standards. Only then will anyone take disarmament seriously.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    14. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 2, Informative

      I suspect it would be rather worse than a dozen Katrinas. Katrina's damage to the area's energy production and refining capacity was nontrivial; but much of it was back online fairly quickly. Most of the rest of the impact was either to the local economy(severe; but not really a broader issue) or psychological(most of those hardest hit have been treated as essentially expendable for years; but we usually didn't have to see it). The actual death toll was only a few thousand.

      Any nuclear strike on a decent sized city would, at a minimum, cause deaths in the range of a few hundred thousand, likely topping a million in the larger cities(particularly once you take things like the resultant fires into account). Furthermore, unlike a hurricane, nuclear strikes would presumably be deliberately aimed for maximally important targets, not just ones that happen to be on the wrong bit of coast at the wrong time. Major population and industrial centers would be essentially certain to make the list.

      It would be survivable(for some people), certainly; but it'd also be pretty damn grim.

    15. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      Is there really that much difference in having a thousand or having a dozen? Could the country with a dozen warheads not fuck any other country beyond repair or redemption just as well as one with a thousand nukes?

      In addition to the factors others have mentioned there is this - when the number of warheads is reduced, each remaining one becomes proportionally more valuable.
       
      The practical effect of this is that it increases the pressure on the 'trigger'. Back during the Cold War, losing a single SSBN (for example) meant losing maybe 1-2% of the available force. Damaging, but not fatal. Under a 500 launcher regime, losing a single SSBN means the loss of nearly 20% of the available force. This increases the pressure to 'use it or lose it'. (For 'SSBN' you can also substitute 'bomber base' or 'missile squadron'.)
       
      Another effect is that as the number of launchers and warheads goes down, missile defense becomes more attractive. Thousands of incoming warheads are essentially impossible to stop or event blunt. When you drop that to dozens, such an attack is much easier to blunt and to possibly even all but stop. Which is why the US has deliberately sharply limited the number of missiles and deployment locations for it's current system - while it can blunt or stop an attack from China or stop one from one of the rogue states, it can barely blunt an attack from the Russians. That balance changes with these current reductions, and is one of the reasons the Russians have objected so greatly to expanding the system.
       
      (Disclaimer: I'm not a nuclear strategist by profession, nor do I play one on TV... But I have informally studied it for a couple of decades now.)

    16. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Rogerborg · · Score: 0, Troll

      our leaders are held to certain standards. Our presidents get in trouble for misspeaking or forgetting to bow or not dispensing enough foreign aid

      Yes, "certain" standards. Forgetting to say "God bless the separation of Church and State", sure, 10 points from Gryffindor. Invading the fuck out of a sovereign nation that posed no threat at all, direct or indirect, to the USA, not so much trouble.

      Tell a big enough lie, or start a big enough war, and no one dares call you on it. You're a Statesman.

      --
      If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
    17. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Rogerborg · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      That's very reassuring. When (not if) a major metropolitan area gets nuked by some cult nutjobs, remind me to look you up and put you on the cleanup crew, then relocate you to - what did you say? - 300 metres from the centre of the blast.

      --
      If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
    18. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by A.+B3ttik · · Score: 1

      Invading the fuck out of a sovereign nation that posed no threat at all, direct or indirect, to the USA, not so much trouble.

      Right, nobody called out Bush on the invading of Iraq.

      Seriously, his party lost practically all power in every branch of government.

    19. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Skillet5151 · · Score: 1

      One madman with a nuke is worse than a peaceful leader with a thousand nukes.

      So in other words it's ok for your leaders to have as many as they want, just not anyone else? I think that's what a lot of people in countries like Iran see in the US's strong opposition to any development of nukes: not a spirit of genuine concern against proliferation but a fear of any challenge to (Anglo-)American dominance. Bitterness is understandable, especially in consideration of the fact that the US effectively allows Israel free rein with regards to its nuclear production.

      On a side note I find it embarrassing that the American media constantly implies Israel will be immediately obliterated if Iran is allowed to develop a primitive first nuke, while making no mention of the fact that Israel reportedly has hundreds of nukes with modern delivery vectors. Sigh, what ever happened to logic or reason?

    20. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by zorg50 · · Score: 1

      We need a clear, unambiguous policy that nukes are absolutely forbidden for every state with no double standards.

      It's a lose-lose situation. Sure, the double-standard argument is true, but that's only half of it. If the US or another world power were to actually disarm completely, how long do you think it would take for some dictator or terrorist group to take advantage of that opportunity? When mutually assured destruction is no longer an issue, we'll have the most to worry about. The only exception, of course, would be if we had some way to determine, with 100% certainty, that no nuclear weapons were possessed by anyone, and I don't think that's going to happen.

    21. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by rumith · · Score: 1

      Yes, there is. You launch a thousand missiles, fifty get shot down, you own your enemy. You launch a dozen missiles (all you have), all of them get shot down... then what? Or even better, the enemy easily destroys your 12 missile silos with the first strike and you don't even have anything to start with.

    22. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 1

      Unfortunately, from the perspective of a radiation-sensitive soft target, who is arguably part of its host nation's ability to make war(i.e. a human), that is notably uncomforting.

      Since, as you say, doing serious damage to thinks like roads, rails, and heavier buildings is extremely difficult, that pretty much leaves the humans that operate them as the logical weak link.

    23. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ... after his re-election.

      [captcha: tyranny]

    24. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Pros_n_Cons · · Score: 1

      What? No "killah cockroaches"?! This post-nuclear-holocaust world is sounding less and less appealing every day.

      cockroaches surviving radiation is bullshit anyway.
      I tested the theory in a microwave and it died pretty good.

      --

      -- "of course thats just my opinion, I could be wrong." --Dennis Miller
    25. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by readin · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Madmen dictators are not 4-year-olds. They don't decide whether to build nukes based on their dad setting a good example for them. The calculate their self-interest and make their decision. Or they calculate whatever mad purpose they have (genocide against Israel) and make their decision. They don't think about the need to defend against American nukes because they know that the US refrains from using nukes except when attacked by nukes. Building nukes for themselves increases the risk of being a victim of a US nuke attack. The only kind of attack the dictator's nukes deter are conventional attacks - and that has nothing to do with the US already having nukes. The US abandoning nukes would make it even more attractive for smaller countries to build them. Right now, NK's nukes merely deter a conventional American attack. Remove American nukes and threats of nuclear retaliation, and suddenly NK's nukes give them the ability to extort anything they want from their defenseless neighbors. Americans and western Europeans need to give up their patronizing attitudes toward other countries. Those other countries aren't children who will imitate our adult ways like a child imitates his parents. Those other countries are ruled by adults who calculate their self-interests the way an adult does.

      --
      I often don't like the choices people make, but I like the fact that people make choices. That's why I'm a conservative.
    26. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Our presidents get in trouble for misspeaking or forgetting to bow or not dispensing enough foreign aid; the leaders of the aforementioned countries give speeches advocating genocide... to thunderous applause."

      The American leaders never advocate genocide publicly, but it happens all the same.

      See Guatemala (150,000 dead to protect commercial interests), Cambodia (750,000 dead through bombing), Afghanistan etc.

      Which is worse, to be honest and threaten genocide, or to lie and commit genocide?

    27. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by rumith · · Score: 1

      Putin, after all, prefers to use proxy countries for that.

      Sure he does. Does it mean that the US don't?

    28. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 1

      Yeah, I know - I can't wait for more nations to get nuclear weapons, because it will put the USA in its place. The Islamic Republic of Iran would never use its weapons against Israel, for instance.

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
    29. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by tpjunkie · · Score: 2, Insightful

      You are neglecting to factor in the damage caused by the over pressure wave created by the blast, as well as the radiative damage caused by the blast. The shockwave created by a moderately sized nuclear detonation will create an overpressure effect that can be incredibly damaging to structures not designed to withstand it; see Hiroshima, which had an area of near complete destruction a mile in radius, excepting a single concrete structure which can best be described as "bombed out." This was produced by a 20 kiloton bomb. Assuming more robustly built structures in a modern city, I would still suspect that a 10 megaton bomb, releasing 50 times more energy would be much more destructive than 200-300 meters. Secondly, radiative damage would be devastating, as that becomes an increasing factor with bomb strength. Nuclear weapons can release the equivalent amount energy as radiation as the actual explosion; in fact it is the X-ray pressure of the fission primary that is responsible for ignition of the fusion secondary in a hydrogen bomb. This means that for the bombs dropped on hiroshima and nagasaki, objects three miles from the blast site were severely burned or ignited from the thermal radiation of the blast. Again, extrapolating to a multi megaton device today results in a somewhat significantly larger burn radius, although this is constrained by the fact that the radiation travels in a direct line of sight and in a dense city, assuming a near ground level detonation this radiation will likely be absorbed well before dispersing to a "safe" level. Of course, with an air blast, the damage inflicted will be significantly higher, with the added bonus that much of the terrain directly below the blast will be heavily irradiated then sent airborne, dispersing fallout throughout the area.

    30. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by MartinSchou · · Score: 1

      Depends on which cities you hit I suspect:

      Washington DC (mostly because that'd take out the politicians)
      New York
      Los Angeles
      Chicago
      Houston
      Philadelphia
      Phoenix
      San Antonio
      San Diego
      Dallas
      San Jose
      Detroit

      These are the 11 largest cities in the US plus DC. If that killed everyone in those cities (unlikely) it'd cost 26.4 million lives in the US.

      The economic outcome would be horrible, but taking out New York takes out all the Wall Street brokers and most of the bankers, so it'll probably come out as a wash

    31. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Blakey+Rat · · Score: 1

      We need a clear, unambiguous policy that nukes are absolutely forbidden for every state with no double standards.

      Oh, well, that's ok because the US has tons of double-standards. (Or maybe I parsed that sentence wrong...)

    32. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by rumith · · Score: 1

      Keeping in mind the long list of US invasions (which were carried out both under Republicans and under Democrats in nearly equal measure AFAIK), would you bet that the current administration won't launch a surprise attack against Russia as soon as their nuclear arsenal can be taken care of with the US antimissile defenses? I know that I wouldn't...

    33. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by A.+B3ttik · · Score: 1

      So in other words it's ok for your leaders to have as many as they want, just not anyone else?

      Yes, because my nation provides aid and comfort to anyone, regardless of race, color, or creed. My leaders do not refer to entire races of people as "dogs" and call for their immediate extermination.

      Bitterness is understandable, especially in consideration of the fact that the US effectively allows Israel free rein with regards to its nuclear production.

      It is understandable, yes. It does not mean I agree with it or condone it. A guy murdering his cheating wife is "understandable," but that does not mean I agree with it.

      On a side note I find it embarrassing that the American media constantly implies Israel will be immediately obliterated if Iran is allowed to develop a primitive first nuke, while making no mention of the fact that Israel reportedly has hundreds of nukes with modern delivery vectors. Sigh, what ever happened to logic or reason?

      And yet Israel has not used any of these nukes. Nor do their leaders deny scientific facts like the holocaust and refer to all Iranians as greedy crooks, calling to "wipe them all from the face of the Earth." The president of Iran has done these things... as President.

    34. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by davidtupper · · Score: 1

      The problem with this theory is that the genie is out of the bottle. The technology exists to create the weapons, therefore someone will build them. The only difficult part may be the fissionable material, but it is merely a matter of building the enrichment facility as the technology is out there (and readily available). It is the same with gun control, with a modest machine shop I can build fairly sophisticated firearms, the (not unsolvable) problem becomes the primer and powder.

    35. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by R2.0 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      "We need a clear, unambiguous policy that alcohol is absolutely forbidden for every state with no double standards. Only then will anyone take Prohibition seriously."

      Or substitute marijuana, tobacco, fast food, etc.

      Cat's out of the bag, friend. Pretending that it's possible to simply ban nuclear weapons by fiat is catastrophically naive. Deal with the world as it is, not how you would pretend it to be.

      --
      "As God is my witness, I thought turkeys could fly." A. Carlson
    36. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Repossessed · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Um... the largest bomb ever built was 50-100 megatons. No bombs of that size were ever built in a deployable system (tsar bomba was too damned big to hit another country with it easily).

      You can destroy roads and railroads easily with conventional bombs (which are really good at taking out everything in a straight line when dropped en mass).

      At 1 megaton, you can destroy an office building 2.8 miles away reliably (the 10 PSI mark, few buildings will not stand up to 10 PSI of overpressure). Many building would be destroyed at 4 miles, and fires would be started as much as 7 miles away.

      The majority of nukes launched in a nuclear war would probably be aimed at other nuclear launch sites. Since survival is very dependent on getting the other guys nukes before they launch. (which is what nuclear armed submarines or the constant planes flying to Russia were about, no way to avoid getting destroyed with a first strike).

      --
      Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite (TM)
    37. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yup. I'm not sure where the OP got the 200-300m notion.

      Go ahead, bomb your city and see what happens.

    38. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by bogjobber · · Score: 1

      Yes, with the current arsenal the US and Russia have now, we could more or less destroy human civilization. If we only had a couple dozen warheads, it would still be enough to produce deterrence and military superiority, but not enough to turn every major city of the world into a parking lot.

    39. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Lord+Apathy · · Score: 1

      That is the entire point. Both sides have known that for a hell of a long time but now they are just putting it into practice. Really, the only real reason to have 10,000+ nuclear weapons is dick waving. Hell, I can really see no reason to have more than 200, but I'll take 1500 as a good start.

      The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step.

      --

      Supporting World Peace Through Nuclear Pacification

    40. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Surely you have megaton and kiloton confused in your post.

      See here [Wikipedia] for info on the largest nuclear bomb ever detonated. It was only 50 Mton, but could have been up to 100.

    41. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by ducomputergeek · · Score: 1

      If you look at the ABM program, it was never designed to deal with more than a few incoming missiles. It was meant as a defensive system against North Korea and other countries such as Iran or Pakistan who may have a few missiles and nukes, but not hundreds. Also, the only effective system (the Navy's SM-3 platforms) is geared at the interception of MRBM and theater based weapons, not ICBM's.

      The question is, what is 500 launchers? Are F-16's considered launchers? After all they can carry nuclear bombs.

      --
      "The problem with socialism is eventually you run out of other people's money" - Thatcher.
    42. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by badfish99 · · Score: 1

      Try tardigrades. I've seen a film of them walking around in an electron microscope: hard vacuum plus the microscope radiation (and, I think, a coating of metal to enhance the contrast) had no effect on them.

    43. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by ConceptJunkie · · Score: 1

      But was it the radiation that killed it or the water in its body boiling?

      --
      You are in a maze of twisty little passages, all alike.
    44. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      Thank you. That was the most insightful comment on here, by far.

    45. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Cite some examples, I think most of your numbers are hog-wash and made up on the spot.

    46. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Hatta · · Score: 1

      If the US or another world power were to actually disarm completely, how long do you think it would take for some dictator or terrorist group to take advantage of that opportunity?

      Our conventional weaponry is more than enough to take care of either North Korea or Iran if we decided to do so. Possessing nukes serves only as provocation.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    47. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      Having one's party completely thrown out of power by disgusted voters is "trouble".

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    48. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      would you bet that the current administration won't launch a surprise attack against Russia as soon as their nuclear arsenal can be taken care of with the US antimissile defenses? I know that I wouldn't...

      Then you're a fool. Sorry for the ad-hom, but there's really no other way to respond to such an irrational statement. If you think Obama is interested in Nuking the Russians, you're either an idiot or a lunatic.

    49. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by vlm · · Score: 2, Informative

      Assuming more robustly built structures in a modern city, I would still suspect that a 10 megaton bomb, releasing 50 times more energy would be much more destructive than 200-300 meters.

      No, not really. Even at the most optimistic level, you need to take a cube root to go go between radius and volume... cube root of 50 is about 3.7. So, at the most optimistic, 50 times more volume of destruction equals about 3 something larger radius. Round down for improved building codes and improved technology. Round down for realistic blast effects (shading from bigger buildings, lots of the extra "power" just makes the fireball go upwards even faster).

      Secondly, radiative damage would be devastating, as that becomes an increasing factor with bomb strength.

      Nope, nada, zactly precisely totally the opposite effect. Check out the old book "effects of nuclear weapons" or the wikipedia entry. There used to be a palm pilot calculator that used the equations more than a decade ago on a little slide rule...

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_nuclear_explosions

      In summary, for the little bombs, its a mighty close tossup as to killed by blast, burns, or radiation, although radiation has a slight lead, so most folks will probably die of radiation exposure if a small bomb hits. But for big bombs, most folks die from the burns which are real bad if you were outside in visual range (slashdotters need not worry about that) or for that matter in a burnable building (Moms basement counts, unless all masonry and steel roof shingles and metal window blinds), if you're close enough to be seriously fried in the fire then the blast will probably get you anyway, finally radiation is so short ranged it won't kill you unless you were so close you were in the utterly "ground to dust" range (like, bank guard chilling in an empty, closed bank vault or similar during the blast).

      Or rephrased, for a small bomb its three virtual identical circles of destruction like earth vs its oceans and atmosphere kind of diagram, but for big bombs its a (relatively) tiny little radiation circle, surrounded by a big ole blast circle several times larger, surrounded by a modestly larger thermal circle, like saturn and some of its rings scale of diagram.

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    50. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Shinatosh · · Score: 1

      Agreed.
      Also lets say someone nukes a city like New York. Just one tiny 10 Megaton bomb is dropped. Beyond the shockwave, the radioactive fallout and direct radiation, the surrounding area woluld be seriously polluted, and I doubt anyone could survive there. Just imagine, all that plastic, rubber other dangeourus materials in our everyday appliances burned into the atmosphere. You probably have seen pictures or videos of burning oil wells in Kuvait. Well thats nothing compared what would be generated after a nuked city.
      Now what if someone nukes just 12 of the major US cities? Or a lots of cities around the world? Maybe the nukes itself would destroy only the cities in a few km radius, but the products of all those things that would burn in our cities would surely cause some ugly consequences on the rest of the world.

      --
      :)
    51. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Martin+Blank · · Score: 4, Interesting

      You are really underestimating the power of nuclear weapons, or you're using a different definition of complete destruction than everyone else. If by complete, you mean "vaporized," then you may be correct. However, according to this site, a one-megaton surface blast would leave a crater 200 feet deep and a thousand feet across, and everything within about 3200 feet of of the detonation would be gone except for some foundations. Out to 1.7 miles, only heavily reinforced building still have some remnants. Out to 2.7 miles, some multi-story buildings would still have their skeletons standing, and significant damage to structures would extend out to about 4.7 miles.

      This doesn't get anywhere close to the documented blast of Tsar Bomba, which was a 50MT bomb that had a 4.6km fireball, caused damage at significant distances (with atmospheric lensing causing damage hundreds of miles away), and would have caused third-degree burns to creatures 60 miles away. It was detonated on the island of Novaya Zemlya, and it broke windows in Finland and Sweden.

      I don't think that either nation could ever have blanketed the entire planetary surface with nuclear weapons; blast effects and areas just don't match up. But to suggest that nuclear weapons are little more effective than conventional weapons -- which is essentially what your post says -- is dead wrong.

      --
      You can never go home again... but I guess you can shop there.
    52. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by jackspenn · · Score: 2, Insightful

      you've got a long way to go before you can start preaching to countries with a dozen or nuclear weapons about the need for restraint.

      If we have little or no nukes left, why would the listen?

      I find it odd that people have a problem with the United States having weapons of mass destruction. Given that we have been in the Korean war, the Vietnam War, two Gulf wars and countless military operations without using them.

      The fact that we were willing to settle on a stalemate in Korea and actually lost Vietnam, yet had enough restraint to not use our arsenal demonstrates we have control and restraint (Hence we have earned the right to preach).

      The same cannot be said for North Korea (who does not have sufficient working nukes), yet has fired missiles and tested nukes whenever it wants something from the world (if only to be paid attention to) or Iran (which is not there yet) but has proclaimed they would use them as soon as they get them on Israel (Doesn't show much control, regard for life, regard for environment or understanding).

      Furthermore, a Republic or a Democracy is naturally more restrained or at least slower to act (if for no other reason then the required public debate cycles) then a dictatorship or oligarchy.

      --
      Respect the Constitution
    53. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by icebrain · · Score: 1

      Actually, fallout is worse from groundburst initiations than from airbursts--they scoop up a lot more dirt and debris than an airburst does. An airburst is optimal for soft targets and wide areas, but hardened targets (bunkers, command centers, missile silos) and inherently overpressure- and thermal-resistant things like roads, railyards, and runways essentially need a groundburst to destroy.

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    54. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by MozeeToby · · Score: 1

      Btw: The effects of a nuclear warhead decrease with the square of the distance (at best), or with the third power of the distance. A 100 megaton nuclear warhead only increases the destruction distance by a factor of 2. A 250 megaton warhead (the largest in existence) will only destroy a bunker when exploded less than 500 meters from it's walls. A 250 megaton warhead, will only destroy a modern office building at less than a kilometer.

      That's exactly why the research was moved away from bigger explosions and towards multi-warhead devices. It might take a 100 Megaton bomb to destroy a small city, but ten much smaller, much simpler one megaton bombs deployed in a circle around the city will create a firestorm that will destroy it just as thoroughly. Modern deployment schemes take full advantage of the interactions between multiple warheads being detonated simultaneously. With relatively modern MIRV missiles, 20 launches can put 200 nuclear bombs into an area, all detonating within seconds of each other.

      As for fallout, that would depend wildly on how the bombs were deployed. The most common deployment talked about is air burst, which are essentially self cleaning. The massive heat output sends the contaminated air high into the atmosphere where it is dispersed over a wide area diluting the effect considerably. Unless a truly massive (thousands of detonations) attack occurred there really wouldn't be much for long term effects from these detonations.

      Where you get into problems with fallout is with surface and underwater detonations. This generally reduces the effectiveness of the explosion but greatly increases the problems with fallout since the irradiated material is solid matter and tends to stay where it is. This type of deployment could in theory be used to 'salt the Earth' in an ongoing conflict. It would deny the enemy the use of the area without producing huge loss of life. In theory, this would prevent escalation of the conflict (relative to an air burst producing many, many deaths) but in reality no country is going to stand still when a nuke has been detonated on their territory.

    55. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Mr.+Shotgun · · Score: 1

      it's not like we'd be roaming the wastelands eating Iguana-on-a-Stick or anything like that.

      And thus my plans for an Iguana-on-a-stick franchise is ruined. Thanks for killing the dream man!

      --
      Of all tyrannies, a tyranny sincerely exercised for the (supposed) good of its victims may be the most oppressive
    56. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      While there is a lot to be said in favour of your argument, your numbers are off, sometimes by several orders of magnitude. The largest warhead ever actually tested was about 50 MT, not 250; the largest ever deployed by the US was 25 MT. I doubt whether a building at 1 km would withstand a 250 kiloton blast, let alone 250 megaton, not to say that any statement about the latter is purely hypothetical because no such device has ever been detonated. There is a list even at Wikipedia that is more or less coherent with other estimates. It would seem that your numbers are consistently off by factors between 10 and 500.

    57. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by LordLimecat · · Score: 1

      You seem to be off by a factor of 1000. According to Wikipedia, the largest bomb ever was only 100mt--the Tsar Bomba, whose fireball radius was 4.6km ( to say nothing of the blast wave). Youre telling me that it wouldnt annihilate an office building at only 1km?

      The Little Boy used at Hiroshima was ~15kt (20,000x smaller than the bombs youre claiming). According to wikipedia, it caused "severe structural damage to buildings extended about 1 mile (1.6 km) from ground zero".
      You may be correct about wildlife adapting to radiation--look at the chernobyl site-- but a modern nuke will certainly do a hell of a lot more than youre describing (or did you completely forget your WWII history?)

    58. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by icebrain · · Score: 1

      I think you're highly overestimating what nukes will do. They're powerful, yes, but they're actually less powerful than most people realize.

      A "couple dozen warheads", even when properly targeted and making the giant assumption that they all work and all get through to the target, is maybe enough to take out a couple of cities like Savannah, Georgia (which has a couple of military installations, a large port, an airport, railyards, etc). That is, of course, assuming that the strike is targeted against military assets and the things that support them. One could instead drop a device or two in the middle of major population centers; more civilians would be killed but the warfighting ability of the target would not be hindered as much.

      Now, expand what I said above, and apply it to an entire country. You're targeting at least one warhead for every major airport, port, railyard, army base, missile silo, air defense site, and major power generation facility. Sometimes you can overlap the targets, but not always. Now account for the fact that not all your warheads will be available at one time--not only will a given fraction their delivery systems be down for maintenance at any given time, but the delivery systems may fail or be shot down, and so may the warheads. That's how you wind up with arsenals in the thousands.

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    59. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Sobrique · · Score: 1

      Do you really think terrorists care about the possiblity of a retributive strike? Or more more fundamentally, could it _ever_ be a moral choice to order the launch order? Even if you knew you had incoming that would kill everyone in your country.

    60. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by SnarfQuest · · Score: 1

      Not to mention the fact that unpleasant side effects like nuclear winter

      But, wouldn't the nuclear winter offset the global warming? We should get Algore in on this! It would also eliminate a lot of crazy people. I'd say we should just go for it, and solve several problems at once!

      --
      Who would win this election: Andrew Weiner vs Andrew Weiner's weiner.
    61. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by icebrain · · Score: 1

      It's also been argued that 50 Mt or so is about the practical limit on yield--beyond that the warhead blows itself apart before it can use up the rest of the "fuel".

      The largest warheads in regular service were about 25 Mt (Soviet) and 10 Mt (US). Nowadays, most warheads are much smaller, in the sub-megaton range. More accurate delivery systems mean you can use smaller ones.

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    62. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by nojayuk · · Score: 2, Informative

      There are very few 1MT-plus nukes left in anyone's arsenal. Accurate aiming and the need to shrink the physical size of the weapons to provide MIRV capability in sub-based missiles and smaller silo-based launchers meant a move away from the older higher-yield devices. Typical maximum yield from the latest generation of weapons is about 500-600kT. The WE177 freefall bomb deployed by the RAF had a dial on the side that allowed the yield to be adjusted from about 200 to 500kTonnes.

      Radius of effectiveness at the target depends on how high up the bomb is triggered. Attacking hard targets such as docks, freeways and railheads (all built low to the ground of concrete and stone with few structral voids) requires a lower detonation point compared to destroying clusters of freestanding buildings. Going after buried structures such as command bunkers requires ground-burst or even earth-penetrator weapon designs.

      It is believed the Chinese have some megatonne-range weapons to compensate for their delivery systems probable error on target but the Big 4 (US, Russia, UK, France) all have accurate warhead deployment systems that have negated the need for high-yield weapons.

    63. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by bcattwoo · · Score: 1

      "A 250 megaton warhead, will only destroy a modern office building at less than a kilometer."

      Normally I don't do this, but you are full of crap. The largest nuclear weapon ever detonated, the "Tsar bomb", had a yield of about 50 megatons and a radius of total destruction of about 8 miles. Granted there might still be some of the foundation left with 250 megatons (not that anyone has such a weapon in their arsenal) at a half-mile but it will certainly be destroyed for all intents and purposes. A few thousand such weapons to destroy NYC? Utter bullshit, unless you mean to leave the whole area with a smooth finish.

    64. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by icebrain · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Yeah, nuking a bunch of big cities will have an impact on human society--but on the grand environmental scale, it's not going to do very much. People have a misconception that setting off a mere handful of devices will somehow blanket the whole world in radioactive fallout and kill every living thing--and that's not the case by any means. Close to 1000 atmospheric tests took place before 1963, and we're all still around.

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    65. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by jackspenn · · Score: 1

      I honestly believe the size of our national debt and our federal governments spending habits will do more damage to the US economy and quality of life for citizens than 12 nuclear warheads could do.

      --
      Respect the Constitution
    66. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by jambox · · Score: 1

      I can't believe how wrong-headed this post is. True, blowing a 10MT bomb in times square wouldn't physically crush the roads or even all the buildings but hundreds of thousands would die, perhaps even a million. The lethal radius purely from burn injuries is out to several miles. Here's a pic of radii for a 550Kt bomb.

      Nuclear weapons are a gun to the head of every man, woman and child on earth. Who cares who "wins the war" when tens or hundreds of millions of innocents lie dead by the end of it?

      --
      You thought you could break the laws of physics without paying the PRICE?
    67. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by smoker2 · · Score: 0, Troll

      The idea was that Israel should be removed from the map. Israel is a country, a country that in certain quarters is regarded as illegitimately occupying arab lands. You could quite easily remove Israel from the map without hurting a single inhabitant. It's merely the reverse of its creation. Of course the Israelis wouldn't stand still and let that happen so there probably would be a war. But the Iranian president did not suggest wiping out every Israeli, just getting rid of Israel as an entity.

      And the holocaust is not a scientific fact, it is a historical fact.

      Maybe you should wipe the spittle off your chin now, you look silly.

    68. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by rumith · · Score: 1

      Where did I say that I think that Obama is interested in nuking Russia? The few remaining launch sites might be as well disabled with conventional weapons. And sorry, I don't work in the White House or the Pentagon so I cannot confidently say if Obama plans to attack Russia at some point in the future or not. Do you? Because if not, it's you who's behaving like an arrogant and naive blockhead here.

    69. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by haifastudent · · Score: 0

      Even if we overestimated and supposed that, for ease of calculation, a single nuclear strike could completely eliminate a city, all but the very smallest countries have substantially more than 12 cities, and a fair amount of hinterland. Not to mention the fact that unpleasant side effects like nuclear winter and social chaos, which would presumably do most of the killing after the first couple of days, would be far more severe with more warheads rather than fewer.

      My nation has only four cities by Western standards, and all of our "hinterland" is just outside those cities. We also have more weapons trained on us than any other nation, including soon-to-be-nuclear Iran. Those who call themselves our enemies make up about a fifth of the world's population, and they have over a thousand men for every one of ours. They have also started six wars with us in the living generations.

      Yes, I am talking about Israel.

      --
      Thank for reading to the sig. You may stop reading now. It is safe. There is no more content. Why are you still reading?
    70. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by tpjunkie · · Score: 1

      When used the term "radiative" I meant radiation in the full EM spectrum, from the nasty gamma and X-rays to the optical and thermal radiation that will blind and burn people in a decently large radius.

    71. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by tpjunkie · · Score: 1

      and I also goofed on the math, 10 megatons is 500 times more energetic than 20 kilotons, cube root of 500 is 8, so if 20kt levels a radius 250 meters, 10 megatons would level a radius of 4km.

    72. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "But keep going, you've got a long way to go before you can start preaching to countries with a dozen or nuclear weapons about the need for restraint."

      Thank you for arguing for allowing those other smaller countries to arm. We can't preach to them, you say, and they ain't going to be listening to you or their neighbors.

      Those holding a few are either US allies or developed weapons for border disputes. Those smaller entities know they can't stand up to the US or USSR conventionally, much less on nuke power or number.

      But keep it up, blaming the US and the Russia, and giving reason for the likes of Iran to arm. They agree with your sentiments.

      btw, dude, 12 wouldn't stop the asteroid that's going to blank, say, GB. I agree 1,200 is a lot, but this isn't money that can simply be spent; these weapons have to be dismantled and the waste safely stored or used. Just burning these in reactors is going to take time.

      Frankly, I think that on average diposing of 1-2 nukes a day by both countries is a good thing that shouldn't be derided in any way. Getting rid of thousands of weapons safely and securely is a big task that can lead to easy proliferation.

      "USA and Russia down to owning a mere 95% of the world's nuclear weapons"

      I don't give a damn who owns the most or not, as you seem to do. I give a damn if they are properly secured or used. And mean some minor security lapse shipping something the wrong place; I mean crazy fanatic army commander does coup and gains access to 12. That the commanders of the subs are mentally stable. You should too.

    73. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by VAXcat · · Score: 1

      "Well, I can see by your coat my friend that you're from the other side. There's just one thing I've got to know, can you tell me please, who won the war?"

      --
      There is no God, and Dirac is his prophet.
    74. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by TheBracket · · Score: 4, Interesting

      (See The Effects of Nuclear Weapons, and also "The Pentomic Army" for sources on this)

      The 200-300m quoted distance is the "100% probability of kill" range, I believe. Double that range, and the probability halves.

      You also have to remember that Hiroshima was almost perfectly designed to be obliterated in a nuclear blast. The topography is that of a bowl, so overpressure actually wraps around rather than just releasing in an outwards pattern. Also, a lot of the buildings were made of very weak materials - residences had a lot of paper and wood, which a) burned really well, and b) did little to absorb the blast overpressure on the way through.
      Nagasaki actually fared quite a bit better, as have various test ranges around the world.

      In a modern concrete and steel city, the reflective/absorbitive properties of building materials considerably reduce the spread of blast overpressure on a lateral trajectory. Additionally, few cities are built inside a bowl (New Orleans excepted!) - so most of the time, the overpressure only hits you once.

      There really are only four lethal mechanisms that accompany a nuclear blast inside the atmosphere: prompt radiation, fireball, blast overpressure (and sometimes a secondary overpressure from air rushing in to fill the resultant vacuum), and residual radiation.

      Prompt radiation travels in a straight line, and is blocked quite effectively by earth, heavy metals and some types of clay. At larger distances, even curtains can help with the flash. If you are in direct line of sight to the flash, within lethal range - you are dead. If not, you're probably ok - and the radiation types released in the flash typically don't stick around.

      The fireball is typically not very large, but will incinerate whatever it comes into contact with. Most modern designs try to air-burst, and the fireball often won't ever touch the ground.

      Blast overpressure hits just like a conventional explosive: a sphere of rapidly moving blast pressure, reducing in power over distance, and also losing energy as it hits things. The same protections against prompt radiation help here: a good wall of dirt does wonders for stopping overpressure, whether it's from regular artillery or a nuclear explosion. Note that studies have shown that blast overpressure is the primary kill mechanism for regular nuclear bombs, just like any other bomb.

      Finally, you get residual radiation. This can be avoided almost completely with a carefully designed airburst - most "fallout" and residual radiation occurs when dirt is sucked into the fireball and irradiated there. Burst high enough to not have the fireball encompass a lot of dirt, and you don't have very much long-term radiation. It's largely unknown what the long-term effects of residual radiation are; the area around Chernobyl didn't behave at all like the models we had!

      Then there are different bomb designs to consider. A really small nuclear bomb behaves a lot like a really large conventional charge: you could set it off in a football stadium, and probably not worry too much about damage to buildings a few hundred yards away; man-portable nukes were designed on that assumption, as were things like the horribly-design Davey Crockett round.
      "Neutron bombs", which really should be called "reduced blast bombs" focus on enhancing prompt-radiation release at the expense of a MUCH smaller blast/fireball (and consequently very little residual radiation). Why would you want to do that? a) It greatly reduces long-term contamination of your target area (meaning you might get to go there!), but more importantly b) it's FAR more effective at taking out tanks and similar. Tanks are really, very, very good at withstanding blast overpressure (it's pretty much their primary defensive purpose - survive artillery and shells while they move forward). It's not at all practical to burst enough regular nuclear weapons to reliably take out a distributed, dug-in tank force. However, they are almost entirely made of metal - and prompt radiation does a "wonder

      --
      Lead developer, http://wisptools.net
    75. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by TheBracket · · Score: 1

      There used to be a contest held (in the US military; I have this from second-hand sources so it may not be accurate) to see who could come up with the best weapons from Radio Shack. A couple of scientists once put together a workable nuclear detonator with off-the-shelf parts. They were, admittedly, REALLY good scientists - but now that the technology is reasonably well understood, the primary barrier to building nukes is fissile material. (The big deal used to be timing circuitry for the detonators - timers are cheap/easy now).

      This is one cat that definitely won't be re-entering the bag...

      --
      Lead developer, http://wisptools.net
    76. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by TheBracket · · Score: 1

      We need a clear, unambiguous policy that nukes are absolutely forbidden for every state with no double standards.

      It's a lose-lose situation. Sure, the double-standard argument is true, but that's only half of it. If the US or another world power were to actually disarm completely, how long do you think it would take for some dictator or terrorist group to take advantage of that opportunity?

      This demonstrates a trueism often repeated in the Defense Studies community: arms control really only works when you don't need it. If you are on good enough terms to sit down and sign agreements, then you probably aren't about to blow each other up anyway.... if you ARE that hostile, chances are that negotiations aren't going to work very well.

      (That said, I'm not sure I agree with Dr. Gray's famous assertion that a nuclear armed neighbourhood is a more polite neighbourhood - we'll find out, I guess)

      --
      Lead developer, http://wisptools.net
    77. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's not our number of nukes that allows us to preach to Iran and N. Korea, it's the fact that our leaders are held to certain standards. Our presidents get in trouble for misspeaking or forgetting to bow or not dispensing enough foreign aid

      And somehow they have stayed out of trouble while running banana republics, supporting dictators, toppling democracies, torching villages and torturing people..

    78. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by johnsonav · · Score: 1

      Our conventional weaponry is more than enough to take care of either North Korea or Iran if we decided to do so.

      Obviously. Look at how we "took care" of Vietnam, or are currently taking care of Iraq and Afghanistan.

      Possessing nukes serves only as provocation.

      Absolutely. We should be completely reliant upon our omnipotent and invincible conventional military strength.

      --
      ... and that's when the C.H.U.D.'s came at me.
    79. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      Killing everyone would probably have less of an effect than killing half of the people. The fallout would render the areas uninhabitable, so you'd have 13.2 million refugees that the rest of the USA would need to absorb.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    80. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      You seem to be discounting fallout. If you look at the deaths from radiation poisoning resulting from the two nuclear weapons to be dropped in a war-time situation, you'll see that they dwarf the (large number of) deaths caused by the explosions. Back then, fallout wasn't really known as a problem, but if you dropped a nuke now then the government of the target country would know that it needed to evacuate any survivors from a very wide area before they were exposed to dangerous levels of radiation. The logistical problems caused by this kind of mass evacuation would dwarf the effect of the explosions.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    81. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      To add to the Tsar Bomba info, it was tested at only half strength. It was designed and capable of delivering a 100+MT blast...

    82. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      > (genocide against Israel)

      Got any basis for that, other than screaming yellow propaganda sources? Your post suggests that the 200+ nuclear warheads in Israel's arsenal are more than deterrence enough...

      > the US refrains from using nukes except when attacked by nukes

      Under the Bush Doctrine, still in effect, the United States "reserves the right" to strike first with a nuclear sneak attack, anywhere and at any time, on the President's sole discretion.

    83. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Hatta · · Score: 1

      None of Vietnam, Iraq, nor Afghanistan are good examples. In none of those cases are we trying to flatten the opposition. We did more damage in Dresden with conventional weaponry than we did in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. If we wanted to commit ourselves to total war, which is what we'd do if attacked by nukes, we would have no trouble doing the same again.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    84. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by arethuza · · Score: 1

      The Tsar Bomb design was apparently rated at 100MT - the version exploded (yielding 56MT) didn't used a lead, rather than depleted uranium, tamper.

    85. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by icebrain · · Score: 1

      Thank you.

      It always amazes me how many people truthfully and honestly believe that disarming, stripping one's defenses, baring one's metaphorical (or physical!) throat to an an aggressive assailant will somehow move him to compassion or pity, that he is just really a poor misguided soul who threatens and hurts other people but doesn't really want to.

      People like this, whether they're hardened street thugs and rapists, drug or Mafia bosses, terrorist leaders, or brutal dictators, are not nice people. They don't secretly want others to just be nice to them. They want power and spoils, and they have no qualms about hurting others to get them. They use brutal tactics to suppress their opponents and gain/maintain their positions. They speak and understand only the language of power and force, and seek only their own gain. Offers of appeasement, self-sacrifice, and mere words are simply accepted as giveaways of what they seek, a temporary means of satisfying their naive opponents while they maneuver for greater advantage to themselves.

      Appeasement, unilateral acts of weakness, and surrender do not keep the mugger, rapist, or murderer from hurting you. They do not convince the street gangs to go home and leave others alone. They do not placate the terrorist and dissuade him from bombing transit systems and markets. They do not make the junta or the dictator feed their people or stop "purging" those who disagree with them. Rather, they encourage such acts by demonstrating that nobody has the balls to stop them. A normal, reasonable person will respond to kindness and generousity in kind, recognizing that it benefits everyone--but these are not reasonable or normal people. And they are not little children, who do what they're told by mommy and daddy and play nice with others--they frankly don't care about others at all, only themselves.

      I don't advocate the use of force as a first option, nor the general application of preemtive force. Diplomacy, sanctions, and other peaceful measures are obviously a hell of a lot more desirable. But you have to remember that those alone will not stop these people and prevent further harm. They must be removed from that position, by peaceful negotiation or surrender or by force if absolutely necessary. You must have the force to back up your demands, and you must be willing to use it when you say you will.

      There is nothing morally wrong with using directed force in self defense to stop an imminent threat. It does not "provoke or "escalate the situation"; that was done when the first threat was issued. I'd even argue that not defending oneself is immoral, at least when the means and opportunity are available.

      I just don't get it. Why do so many people insist on denigrating themselves, decrying their wrongs (and even their right actions!) in support of others' actions which are far worse? Why is the person who stops a horrible act worse than the one trying to commit it?

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    86. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by debrisslider · · Score: 1

      He's not the naive one if you actually think you could disable Russia's launch sites with conventional weaponry, especially if you count their bombers and subs as part of the total launch capacity, which you kind of have to in this scenario - also considering you have to disable them all simultaneously or there are going to be a few launches as soon as they realize their arsenal is at all threatened. Because bombing missile sites within Russia? That's an act of war.

    87. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by cyberchondriac · · Score: 1

      "We need a clear, unambiguous policy that alcohol is absolutely forbidden for every state with no double standards. Only then will anyone take Prohibition seriously."

      Or substitute marijuana, tobacco, fast food, etc.

      Cat's out of the bag, friend. Pretending that it's possible to simply ban nuclear weapons by fiat is catastrophically naive. Deal with the world as it is, not how you would pretend it to be.

      Don't forget guns.

      --

      Look back up at my post, now look back down, you're on the Internet. Now look back up. I'm a signature.
    88. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by johnsonav · · Score: 1

      None of Vietnam, Iraq, nor Afghanistan are good examples.

      Well, that's true, if by "good examples" you mean only the ones that don't refute your point. WWII is the exception, not the rule.

      In none of those cases are we trying to flatten the opposition.

      So, you do agree then, that our conventional military force is incapable of carrying out the war aims of any war we've fought in the last 60 years (save the first Persian Gulf)?

      We did more damage in Dresden with conventional weaponry than we did in Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

      WWII is the exception. Unless you can produce more examples, you're basing your theory upon one outlier case.

      If we wanted to commit ourselves to total war, which is what we'd do if attacked by nukes, we would have no trouble doing the same again.

      I'd much rather not be attacked by nukes in the first place, which is what our nuclear deterrent is for.

      --
      ... and that's when the C.H.U.D.'s came at me.
    89. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      One madman with a nuke is worse than a peaceful leader with a thousand nukes.

      What about one madman with a thousand nukes? When was the last time any of these countries had a "peaceful" leader?

    90. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      the leaders of the aforementioned countries give speeches advocating genocide... to thunderous applause.

      Where were you when McCain was giving his speeches? Granted he didn't make it to the presidential position, but half the country voted for him and applauded his stated goal to drop nukes across the middle east(genocide).

    91. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by T+Murphy · · Score: 1

      USA's nukes arent just for our own sake. Dozens of countries rely on our arsenal for their deterrance effect. For us to drop below apocalyptic levels of nukes, we would need to get the whole UN on board to make sure no one has a problem with it. If we destroyed all of our nukes today, there would be a sudden arms race to maintain that deterrance. If all of our allies built nuke stockpiles to replace ours, their not-as-friendly neighbors would feel threatened and follow suit (see India/Pakistan). I don't want the world to have dozens of countries on the verge of nuclear war, so I say the US should keep a reasonable number of nukes. If Iran is comfortable taunting us about their nuclear program, I think it's a good indicator that the world trusts us to have some restraint with our nukes.

      As an idealist I would like to see zero nukes, but as a realist I know that a nuclear war is the only thing that would empty those stockpiles.

    92. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Dark_MadMax666 · · Score: 1

      Holy shit some morons modded this cretin informative... FYI to completely wipe out NYC AND suburbs you only need half a dozen of sub 300kt devices airbursted at right altitude.

      I suggest for all ignoramuses to go read http://www.wagingpeace.org/articles/2005/11/00_starr_effects-of-300-kiloton-detonation.htm

      250 MT warheads? What delusional fool. Every major city one each is targeted with dozens warheads plus all the military installtion, power generation facilites and such. Not everthing will be in fireball - true , some country quacks like OP will still be alive for a bit -that is until the radioactive fallout covers all of their land and their only options would be to sit in shelter and slowly die.

      I am pretty sure someone will survive though.

    93. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by mattwarden · · Score: 1

      Easy for those countries to say, when they outsource their national security to the US.

    94. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 4, Interesting

      By the way, one thing you Westerners should keep in mind.

      In my school days in Russia (which were late 90s, far more liberal and pro-Western than it is today), we still studied things such as an effect of an urban nuclear explosion, complete with a diagram of the bombed city with affected areas, and a simulated aerial photo. We were taught how to behave to maximize the chances of survival during the initial blast, how to find proper shelters and secure them (and what kinds of shelters are good enough at various distances), and so on. I think that's still being taught.

    95. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yeah, the fallout would render the areas as uninhabitable as Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Here, try the Hiroshima tourism and Nagasaki tourism sites.

    96. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by iiiears · · Score: 1

      Exactly that.

      The enemy is within ourselves.

      Fear is more powerful than rational thought. The MAD doctrine is proof of it.
        Eventually i believe nuclear weapons will be seen differently and become acceptable tools of war. They are now acceptable tools of "Diplomacy". Proliferation is likely inevitable.

        It is in human nature to find a use for tools created at great expense. It is in human nature for national leaders to define enemies. It is more likely for failed national leaders to need enemies if only to distract their followers and maintain power.
        If this agreement remains in force forever and others further reduce the threat of war, today is a day for celebration.

      --
      15TW = 15,000 Nuclear Reactors. (Approx. one accident a month.)
    97. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by MartinSchou · · Score: 1

      Well, as far as I can tell, none of those numbers include the metro areas. New York has about 19 million people living in the greater metro area, but only 8 in the city.

      Los Angeles has about 3.8 million living in the city and 12.8 in the metro area. If we kill off everyone in the cities and expect half the metro area to be refugees, you end up with about 9 million refugees from those two cities alone.

    98. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      We need a clear, unambiguous policy that nukes are absolutely forbidden for every state with no double standards.

      I know, I know! Let's just say that we're going to nuke anyone who has any nukes!

    99. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      That's like saying "since I survived a ten MPH crash, a hundred MPH crash should be no problem".

    100. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by hairykrishna · · Score: 1

      Your damage estimates are flat out wrong. 200-300 meters of infrastructure destruction for a 10 megaton nuke? Are you on crack?

      Watch some of the nuclear weapons documentaries - like 'Trinity and Beyond'. Look at the aftermath at ground zero after some of the blasts. Bikini atoll after Castle Bravo is a good one.

      --
      "Physics is to math as sex is to masturbation." -R. Feynman
    101. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Hatta · · Score: 1

      Well, that's true, if by "good examples" you mean only the ones that don't refute your point. WWII is the exception, not the rule.

      Sadly, wars of necessity are the exception, not the rule.

      So, you do agree then, that our conventional military force is incapable of carrying out the war aims of any war we've fought in the last 60 years (save the first Persian Gulf)?

      For the past 60 years the aims of our wars has been nation building. Military force, conventional or otherwise, is the wrong tool for nation building. Our conventional military force is much more than well equipped to provide for our self defense.

      WWII is the exception. Unless you can produce more examples, you're basing your theory upon one outlier case.

      I'm only concerned with self defense, not aggression. Since every war since WWII has been one of aggression, they are not relevant.

      I'd much rather not be attacked by nukes in the first place, which is what our nuclear deterrent is for.

      A massive conventional response is just as damaging as a nuclear response, so the deterrent should be the same.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    102. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by BikeHelmet · · Score: 1

      Not to mention the fact that unpleasant side effects like nuclear winter and social chaos, which would presumably do most of the killing after the first couple of days, would be far more severe with more warheads rather than fewer.

      But if you go beyond a couple nukes, the effects will be felt globally. :/

      If you hit France with 60 nukes, I'm pretty sure all of Europe would pay the price, and much of Africa, Asia, the US, etc.

      The change to the climate would be global, and the radiation poisoning would be felt all over. There would probably be radioactive ash clouds coming down all around the earth - wherever the wind takes them.

    103. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by icebrain · · Score: 1

      Ok, then, at what point does striking back go from valid, moral self-defense to immoral? Is only immediate self-defense justified (shooting down bombers and missiles in your airspace, preventing invasion)? Are you justified in striking back to remove his offensive capability (the threat)? Where is that point?

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    104. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by johnsonav · · Score: 1

      Sadly, wars of necessity are the exception, not the rule.

      "Necessity" is an awfully fluid concept. Are you sure it was necessary for the US to prosecute WWII as it did?

      I'm only concerned with self defense, not aggression. Since every war since WWII has been one of aggression, they are not relevant.

      I'm sorry, I didn't realize that WWII was a war of self-defense for the US; that innocent ol' USA was just mindin' their own business, when out of the blue they were attacked. Yup, there we were, keeping to ourselves, not equipping Germany's enemy or antagonizing the Japanese. Nope, pure self-defense.

      You're trying to draw a clear line between wars of aggression and wars of self-defense. There is no such line. Even WWII, arguably the most "just" international war in our history, does not fit clearly into either of your categories. Sorry.

      A massive conventional response is just as damaging as a nuclear response, so the deterrent should be the same.

      But it isn't. A conventional response requires a sustained military effort on the part of the responder. Sustained military actions require a functioning national infrastructure; farms, factories, men, communications, transportation, and natural resources (like energy). All of that can be severely impacted by a nuclear first strike, crippling our conventional military, and any response it may offer.

      A nuclear deterrent, on the other hand, only requires a few moments, not months or years of sustained military actions. It can happen with the push of a button, no infrastructure to maintain against a hostile enemy for a prolonged period of time. And, it can be activated fully before the first-strike even hits our shores.

      A deterrent is only as useful as it is sure. A conventional response leaves the enemy a chance that a successful first strike could cripple our military. A nuclear deterrent has no such weakness.

      --
      ... and that's when the C.H.U.D.'s came at me.
    105. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by amorsen · · Score: 1

      So, you do agree then, that our conventional military force is incapable of carrying out the war aims of any war we've fought in the last 60 years (save the first Persian Gulf)?

      It isn't like the non-conventional military force is doing any better.

      The fact still remains that it is reasonably easy for a modern military force to outdo Nagasaki with conventional weapons.

      --
      Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
    106. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by amorsen · · Score: 1

      If you knew that everyone in your country would be dead, there wouldn't be any point in doing the retributive strike. For something less than that (which is almost certain to be the case; it's pretty hard to kill everyone), it could certainly be moral to launch a retributive strike -- unless your morals forbid killing people in war in general.

      --
      Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
    107. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by amorsen · · Score: 2, Informative

      They don't think about the need to defend against American nukes because they know that the US refrains from using nukes except when attacked by nukes.

      The US has a clear nuclear first-strike policy. Nuclear weapons (specifically bunker-busters) were definitely considered for both Afghanistan and Iraq, but they were (fortunately, IMHO) ultimately not used.

      --
      Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
    108. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by amorsen · · Score: 1

      I find it odd that people have a problem with the United States having weapons of mass destruction. Given that we have been in the Korean war, the Vietnam War, two Gulf wars and countless military operations without using them.

      Korea and Vietnam would have prompted nuclear responses from at least Russia. In the Gulf wars, the use would have been fairly pointless.

      --
      Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
    109. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by TheRaven64 · · Score: 1

      Hiroshima has tourism almost 60 years later, but you wouldn't want to go there within a year or so of the bombing. Even if it's only uninhabitable for a few months, you have a logistical nightmare relocating the affected people. Destroy the centre of 12 American cities and cause evacuation of the metro areas, and you'll flood the USA with far more refugees than the infrastructure can handle.

      --
      I am TheRaven on Soylent News
    110. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by johnsonav · · Score: 1

      The fact still remains that it is reasonably easy for a modern military force to outdo Nagasaki with conventional weapons.

      Sure it is. But, a Nagasaki-sized response is not a real deterrent to a nuclear first-strike. The goal is to make the consequences of a first-strike so terrible that no one would embark upon such a course. It's much easier, cheaper, terrifying, and reliable to field a nuclear deterrent than a conventional one.

      --
      ... and that's when the C.H.U.D.'s came at me.
    111. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by amorsen · · Score: 1

      The goal is to make the consequences of a first-strike so terrible that no one would embark upon such a course.

      Well, that may be your goal. I believe that conventional weapons could make first-strike sufficiently terrible that no one would embark on such a course. I also believe that such a policy would be safer in case of an accidental launch.

      --
      Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
    112. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Where are you getting the 1 megaton number? After taking a quick look at wikipedia, the current United States arsenal consists of:

      768 Submarine launched W76 warheads: 100 kt
      200 Minuteman launched W78: 350 kt
      300 Minuteman launched W87: 300 kt, possibly upgraded to 475 kt
      384 Submarine launched W88: 475 kt
      120 Bomber dropped B61-7: 340 kt
      20 Bomber dropped B61-11 Earth Penetrators: Uncertain yield, numbers given between 10-340 kt
      100 Bomber dropped B83: Variable yield, up to 1.2 megaton

      The vast majority of nuclear detonations in an exchange would be nowhere near 1 megaton, they would be between 300-500 kt. This is still extremely devastating, but the danger of nuclear war doesn't come from the size of the weapons anymore, it comes from the quantity. Any nuclear exchange would cause horrific casualties in the urban centers of the countries engaged in the fighting, and there would be significant fallout, some of which would be carried into the upper atmosphere and circle the globe, causing a large public health toll over the next few decades in excess cancers, but not causing much immediate damage. The big concern is of a so-called Nuclear Winter scenario, where great quantities of smoke and soot from burning cities enter the upper atmosphere, encircling the earth in a shroud, and causing massive crop failures, which would cause deaths far outstripping those from the initial war.

    113. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by johnsonav · · Score: 1

      I believe that conventional weapons could make first-strike sufficiently terrible that no one would embark on such a course.

      For a potential one-off attacker, like North Korea, you are absolutely correct. But, for a more formidable threat, like the Russians, or (eventually) the Chinese, a nuclear deterrent is necessary.

      A nuclear response to a first-strike can be launched before the first incoming nuke hits. Once launched, they are more-or-less unstoppable, and require no further intervention. A first-strike could kill every living thing in North America, and our response could still be assured. That's an effective deterrent: the enemy cannot win.

      A conventional response is much less sure. Any large-scale conventional response requires two things a nuclear response does not: time, and infrastructure. We may be able to field an effective fighting force in the aftermath of a nuclear attack, but not indefinitely. With a sizable portion of our industrial, transportation, and communication infrastructure destroyed by a first-strike, there is the potential that the enemy could outlast us. They could win.

      --
      ... and that's when the C.H.U.D.'s came at me.
    114. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by memnock · · Score: 1

      i haven't checked in a few years, but i seem to remember missile defense system tests being mostly unsuccessul. in order to crank up missile defense, wouldn't it be requisite the system be mostly reliable? say something like 99% reliable? if it's gonna miss 1/5 of 60 warheads, the system doesn't sound like it is something worth the expense and diplomacy (ie Russia stressing over it).

    115. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Hatta · · Score: 1

      Ok, you've convinced me. A nuclear arsenal is absolutely necessary for the defense of the United States. Now, which of these arguments don't apply to Iran or North Korea? Surely as sovereign nations they have a right to their own self defense?

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    116. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Rogerborg · · Score: 1

      I know, it was great when Kerry kicked his ass in 2004, and even better when all of Uncle Dick's friends who ran his administration totally weren't recruited to run the next one as well and the Democrats didn't cave like a bunch of pussies every time a Republican Senator so much as sneezed. Wasn't that all amazing?

      --
      If you were blocking sigs, you wouldn't have to read this.
    117. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Our presidents get in trouble for misspeaking or forgetting to bow or not dispensing enough foreign aid

      Too bad they don't get in trouble for screwing up the economy and marching their own citizens to needless death.

    118. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Your nation is simply the proceeds of theft and ethnic cleasing on a massive scale. Had you not done this you would not be in the position you are in.

      Perhaps if Israel did not have a large illegal nuclear arsenal, you might have apoint.

      Not to mention state sanctioned kidnapping from a foreign country of the whistle blower.

      And the fact that Israel has killed 4,000 people since 2000, and the "horrible terrorists less than 100. Doubly ironic due to terrorism being the basis of the formation of the Isaeli state.

    119. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Falconhell · · Score: 1

      Abso-fuckin-lutelely.

      Well said Sir.

    120. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Falconhell · · Score: 1

      Remember, it is called the department of DEFENSE not Attack.

      Defense should mean defending your countries borders, not attacking others.

    121. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Lets see, Israel.

      Noble country-formed by terrorist actions and ethnic cleasing. UN adminstrator assasinated for having the temerity to return 8000 ethnically cleansed people to their homes. Kills 20 times more of the Palestinians than its own citizens killed, uses collective punishment.

      Kills civilians and journalist and even US navy soldiers at a whim. Is in breach of more UN resolutions than any other country. Has biggest illegal nuclear arsnenal in the world. Kidnaps whistle bowere from foreign country. Gets away with it by playing on western guilt for events that happened 70 years ago.

      Why would anyone be bitter? Revenge, surely not!

      Why do you repeat the falsehood about wiping Isreal off the map when that stsement has been debunked as bad translation years ago.

      Your leaders may not call other people dogs, but they happily murder thousands of civilians.

      Frankly Israel is the terorist state that became the example for terrorists the world over, then
      cried and stamped its feet when their own tactics were used against them.

      Finally I have nothing against jews, (Or any race or religion) only against the actions of the state of Israel and its terrorist founders.

      Israel is the main cause of most of the terrorism in the world today.

      I say the above as anyone daring to critcize Israels actions is immediately labeled and semitic as a way of trying to neutralize their fact based statements value.

    122. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Falconhell · · Score: 0, Troll

      Funny how anyone who dares to post anthing other than positive comment about Israel gets modded down isn't it?

    123. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by johnsonav · · Score: 1

      Remember, it is called the department of DEFENSE not Attack.

      Defense should mean defending your countries borders, not attacking others.

      That's why we have a nuclear deterrent, not a first-strike force.

      --
      ... and that's when the C.H.U.D.'s came at me.
    124. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Omestes · · Score: 1

      Do you really think terrorists care about the possiblity of a retributive strike?

      More to the point, who do we retaliate against? Lets say Osama got a nuke and deployed it in a major city in the US. Who are we going to bomb? Afghanistan? Pakistan? Neither of these countries are at fault, or probably had anything to do with the attack. Its like if a single Canadian citizen blew up a monument in the US, can we really blame Canadia as a whole (as a country, government, or people) for the actions of an isolated nut-job?

      Or more more fundamentally, could it _ever_ be a moral choice to order the launch order?

      Since when did that ever come to play in politics? Especially since the birth of "realpolitik" and the modern age of the ends justifying the means as a global rule. This is especially true of the US, who never realized it wasn't really useful since the end of the Cold War, even if we keep it alive (and never learn from our mistakes).

      --
      A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey
    125. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by johnsonav · · Score: 1

      Ok, you've convinced me. A nuclear arsenal is absolutely necessary for the defense of the United States.

      Well, good. :)

      Now, which of these arguments don't apply to Iran or North Korea? Surely as sovereign nations they have a right to their own self defense?

      None of them apply. There are no such things as "rights" in international relations, only interests and power. If Iran or North Korea believes it is in their interest to develop a nuclear arsenal, they can. But, if a more powerful state believes it is in their interest to stop them, they will.

      Just as in every other international conflict in history, things will sort themselves out based on who has the power, and who has not. It won't matter who is "right" or who is "wrong"; but who wins, and who loses.

      --
      ... and that's when the C.H.U.D.'s came at me.
    126. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Omestes · · Score: 1

      Problem: your just using a stereotype of some fictional arch-typical mad dictator who may or may not exist. A quick glance at history and modern-geopolitics will show you that there are as many types of mad dictator as there is of elected ruler in developed countries.

      Are we talking Hitlers, Mussilini's, Saddams, or Castros, or any of the creepy theocrats currently in the Middle East? All of them are/were very different in character, and military stance. And probably, from a strategic angle, have very different ways of being dealt with in an optimal way.

      This isn't counting rogue, independent madmen, either, like Bin Laden, who could never be considered a dictator, but still would be a dire threat if he managed to get a nuke (or even a more boring flavor of WMD). Even then we would need to deal with any armed, independant, mad man in a different way than any other armed, independant, mad man. An Al Queda type organaztion is much different than a right-wing seperatist militia, or even some wacko Jones Town type cult that somehow decided to arm itself (think the Branch Dravidians).

      All threats are different, and should be dealt with individually.

      --
      A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey
    127. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A nuclear bomb aimed at Manhattan would fail to even come close to wiping out the city, and quite possibly cause less deaths than Hiroshima even using a bomb "1000 times more powerful", which mathematically is only about 30 times more destructive since bomb's damage radius degrades exponentially. Skyscrapers are designed to be able to take quite a beating, the blast pressure wouldn't be strong enough to topple over a building more than a few blocks away from the blast (they're designed to take immensely strong hurricanes head on). Remember 9/11? An airplane flying at a high speed went straight into a building and nothing more than the explosion's blast made it out the other end, the rest of the building didn't so much as sway to such an impact and the exit blast on the other side barely made it past the street, were it not for the jetfuel keeping the fire burning hot, they'd of handled the crashes easily. While anything in the immediate area of an explosion is certainly doomed, the blast will weaken fast enough and be absorbed by the skyscrapers fast enough to heavily reduce the damage. An Air burst would be even far more survivable, as building's support explicitly works at keeping things "up" while the explosion may tear through floors, the skeleton would hold strong and after a few stories, the blast would of been reduced enough that people on lower levels won't be killed (again not talking about immediatly in the fireball and initial blast). As for radiation/fallout, the single best way of blocking it is with mass (ever wonder why they use lead gloves/suits to work with the stuff?) and mass is one thing skyscrapers provide very well, by the time the pressure stops killing people, the radiation would've been long stopped by "stuff" in the way.
       
        Of course an actual attack by a nation like russia would use multiple smaller bombs around the city rather than going for the "single big one in the middle" approach

    128. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Martin+Blank · · Score: 1

      The 1MT number would be from the link I provided. The poster had commented on the lack of destructive power for a 10MT weapon. The next largest size on the linked page was 25MT.

      I never said anything about the arsenals of any country, and I mentioned nothing about the long-term effects of the weapons.

      --
      You can never go home again... but I guess you can shop there.
    129. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Deliveranc3 · · Score: 1

      Actually Israel has blurred the line, they have launched UAVs with no human controlling fire, each of these could probably kill the majority of a city...

      By doing this they violated the Geneva convention, just to supress a few dozen arabs with weapons from the 1960s... not to mention the dozens of civilians killed.

      Meanwhile the world is distracted by Michael Jackson's death and the weak counter arguement of anti-semitism leveled against anyone who notices that Israel is becoming the biggest problem in the middle east, no notions of compromise whatsoever and no commitment to democracy or human rights.

      The U.S. has already used UAVs to identify leaders in political protests, how long until those UAVs are armed and psychologists are employed to identify the real leaders before they can ever gain power.

      We are past the point of no return, one person can almost supress all the others... certainly one person can kill the others... when will people learn that we are only seperated by 30,000 years... a bit more than 1000 generations... we're all cousins.

    130. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

      Nuclear weapons (specifically bunker-busters) were definitely considered for both Afghanistan and Iraq, but they were (fortunately, IMHO) ultimately not used.

      Cite please, because this is the first time I've heard about this.

      Are you sure you aren't confused with the MOAB (improved revision of the BLU-82 "Daisy Cutter") which equates to about an 11 ton TNT explosive. It was the MOAB that was discussed being used for opp "Shock and Awe" in Iraq and to snuff out Bin Laden in Afghanistan. From what I understand, the MOAB has yet to be used in the Middle East to this day.

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    131. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You're wrong unfortunately. :(

      There are reports that a neutron bomb was used during the Baghdad Airport battle.

    132. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by mjwx · · Score: 1

      Remove American nukes and threats of nuclear retaliation, and suddenly NK's nukes give them the ability to extort anything they want from their defenseless neighbors.

      So this also removes the US's considerable conventional forces?

      You're logic is flawed.

      You claim they are building Nuclear weapons as a deterrent, correct. This is not however a deterrent to the US. North Korea is more concerned about the technologically superior armies of South Korea, Japan and Taiwan as well as the ASEAN nations (I know it's an economic alliance, but its faster then listing all the SE Asian nations.). The US is an afterthought. The combined might of South Korea and Japan could effectively wipe North Korea's conventional forces in short order without help from the US/NATO or ASEAN so their desire for nuclear weapons is already designed as a deterrent to non-nuclear powers. Japan, South Korea or anyone else in Asia is not bowing to the empty threats of North Korea because even if they did manage launch Nukes against Seoul, Tokyo, Taipei and Kuala Lumpur at once the standing conventional armies of these nations will respond within seconds with bloody retribution (the whole world would).

      If the US got rid of its nukes its ability to make war is not diminished one iota, why you ask? well because all the conventional arms are still there, the nuclear arms are only meant to defend against a nuclear attack of equal size. A nuclear weapon is only to deter against a conventional attack and every dictator knows that once it is used that deterrent is gone, fortunately so do all non-dictators. How many nukes would it take to destroy the standing army of the US? how accurate would the delivery systems need to be? and most importantly a ballistic missile can be traced directly to its point of origin, it's a smoking gun and there's no hiding once this launched

      You really have to get out of this 60's mindset that you are fighting evil empires.

      --
      Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.
    133. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Atario · · Score: 1

      See The Effects of Nuclear Weapons

      Oh, I did. At http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effects_of_nuclear_explosions. There, I see that a 10MT weapon, using the cube-root curve, gives a "urban areas completely leveled" radius of about 5.1km. Not 200-300m; 5100m. Granted, roads and rails are already fairly level, but if you can wipe out a 5.1 km circle of supply and production, you don't need to cut any supply line -- there's no supply left anyway (not to mention trucks and rail cars).

      No, they won't end the world (tangent: nuclear winter theory, btw, was debunked and withdrawn by its proponents), or even render a country the size of the USA or Russia uninhabitable/in the stone age.

      I'd say with most of the population, manufacturing, and shipping wiped out, yeah, it's pretty much back to the stone age. And where are you getting this garbage about nuclear winter theory being "debunked" and "withdrawn"? I see nothing like that anywhere, except from sources with strong biases toward minimizing the danger.

      In short: which defense contractor do you work for?

      --
      "A great democracy must be progressive or it will soon cease to be a great democracy." --Theodore Roosevelt
    134. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Atmospheric tests don't cause fallout; only groundbursts do. Also, none of those tests caused a firestorm.

    135. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by icebrain · · Score: 1

      Atmospheric tests don't cause fallout; only groundbursts do.

      You're getting your terms mixed up. Atmospheric tests are ones that take place above ground but not in space; that includes groundbursts as well as low and high airbursts. In other words, you can see the fireball and mushroom cloud and all that. Quite a number of these were groundbursts (mounted on a fixed test stand, for example) or airbursts low enough that they still picked up debris from the ground

      This is distinct from underground tests (the norm since 1963), which (when deep enough) don't really create atmospheric fallout at all.

      Also, none of those tests caused a firestorm.

      True.

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    136. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by 4D6963 · · Score: 1

      It's quite a shame that over here we keep ourselves ignorant about the effects of an urban atomic blast and how to survive it. We cultivate this myth of "an atomic bomb goes off in New York City, EVERYBODY DIES" whereas it has been shown that only a few thousands would immediately die, and that with good enough a preparation the rest could survive.

      I never gave much credence to the threat of a terrorist nuclear attack, but if it should happen that during this century a terrorist organisation or a rogue state would get its hands on such a device, it's a shame that the population of the eventual target city wouldn't be in any way prepared to maximise their chances of survival. Even something like Duck & Cover would help. You'd think that they'd at least do that in the cities that seem like the best targets like London or New York.

      --
      You just got troll'd!
    137. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by 4D6963 · · Score: 1

      That's bullshit, even if we had no nukes they'd still get nukes if they could. It's not because we'd give up our nukes that it would prevent us doing the stuff we like to do like invading sovereign nations.

      --
      You just got troll'd!
    138. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by BoothbyTCD · · Score: 1

      Well, it is down from a US high in 1990 of 13k+ warheads, so progress has been made.

      --
      snig
    139. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Hatta · · Score: 1

      None of them apply.

      Are you sure you don't mean that all of them apply? Any argument the US can use to justify keeping nukes Iran or NK can use to justify making nukes.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    140. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The definition of "not destroyed" is simple : there would be survivors walking out of that building. Survivors would be walking out of a building 1 km removed from a 250 megaton nuclear blast (which is generated by a hydrogen bomb, not a "pure" atom bomb).

      About the wikipedia stuff : you just can't trust wikipedia for anything which has too much propaganda around it, and there's nothing more propagandistic than a nuclear blast.

      The reality is that if muslims (al qaeda or any other terrorist group) were to detonate an atomic explosion from ground level in a normal city, they would be thoroughly disappointed by the effects. Just about everyone on the same street as the detonation would die, and the 2 or 3 closest buildings would collapse, killing 50-60% of the people inside those buildings, 5 at best ... and that would be it. 5 would only be realistic if detonated from the middle of a crossroad surrounded by high-rise office buildings. The death toll would not be much higher than 9/11, if not outright lower, and that's presuming a VERY high yield.

      The Tsar Bomba did NOT have a radius of destruction of 8 kilometers. It had a "fireball" of 8 kilometer that did not touch the ground. That's probably because the bomb was mainly meant to be seen, not to actually destroy anything. That bomb is not capable of generating a ground-level fireball of the same size, due to obstacles blocking the blast.

      Yes it started "due to athmospheric lensing" fires 620 km away. 5 little ones, to be exact. You'd have to be extremely lucky indeed for those fires hurting more than a few trees. The lens could probably have cause a tiny spot of radiation damage on human skin.

      Blast effects to most buildings would come directly from above - exactly the direction the buildings can withstand the most pressure. A 10 psi shockwave to an (ancient) building might be lethal if it directly hits the walls, but coming from above, it would merely break the windows of the topmost floors and, if extremely powerfull, destroy the top 1 or 2 floors. People below would nearly certainly be quite safe. Even at 4 km, the angle of impact would be a mere 45 degrees. Not the most survivable angle, but not much removed either, most of those bu. That blast would remove a few of the top floors, and the building would remain.

      Furthermore, someone 2 meters below ground zero would with near-certainty survive.

      Now you should imagine yourself hanging over new york at an altitude of 4 kilometers, and look down with a scope. Below you you would see people walking around, and the blast would hit them. 2 streets away from directly below you, you'd no longer see people, and they'd be safe from the initial blast. If they also managed to avoid getting killed by falling debree (which would presumably only come down on a few choice locations), they'd survive the blast, a mere 20-30 meters from ground zero. Mere hundreds of meters away, more than half of the buildings would be in the "bomb shadow", and they would not get hit by most effects of the bomb. Those buildings would remain.

      Here's the real way to kill real numbers of people : get 1000 people to march into a city with machetes, and tell them to get busy, ahmadinejad-style. You'll kill a whole lot more people than with any blast.

    141. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by johnsonav · · Score: 1

      Are you sure you don't mean that all of them apply? Any argument the US can use to justify keeping nukes Iran or NK can use to justify making nukes.

      But, what I'm getting at is that justifications and arguments don't matter. If a state decides it's in its interest to develop nuclear weapons, they can. Other states may also try and stop them, if they believe that is in their interests.

      The US, or any other state, doesn't care what Iran or NK's justifications are for building nukes. The US only asks whether it is in its best interest to allow them to. If not, we try and stop them, while minimizing the damage to our other interests.

      Morality doesn't enter the picture. Justifications don't matter.

      --
      ... and that's when the C.H.U.D.'s came at me.
    142. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Joey+Vegetables · · Score: 1

      Are you taking into account that most wartime deaths are not directly from weapons but from the resulting collapse of infrastructure and the subsequent disease and starvation? Or that NYC is one of the world's three major financial hubs? Or that tens of millions of people outside the U.S. depend, for their very lives, on exports to the U.S., which would likely grind to a halt without a functioning NYC? Knocking down buildings and killing large numbers of people in NYC itself would not be necessary in order to devastate the entire Western Hemisphere. It can be argued that the 9/11 attacks have done more than that already.

    143. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by amorsen · · Score: 1

      Bunker buster article at GlobalSecurity.org

      The RNEP program was cancelled before a functional bomb was produced. Funding may of course have continued under another name. Personally I doubt that the US has a functional nuclear bunker buster.

      It's hard to tell what the reasons for the cancellation were. They probably include the fact that a vast network of well-defended tunnels didn't exist in either Iraq or Afghanistan, but only in Donald Rumsfeld's deluded mind.

      --
      Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
    144. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

      I've read a few articles on that website. The only bunker buster bombs discussed to be used in both theaters is of the BLU-118/B thermobaric type (non-nuclear).

      The only nuclear based bunker buster is a B61-11 design. That one has been talked about being used to destroy centrifugal laboratories located underground in both Iran and possibly N.Korea.

      Again, I see no mention of nuclear devices planned on being used in Iraq or Afghanistan.

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    145. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by ckaminski · · Score: 1

      You sir, are an idiot. First, the largest device ever detonated or built was Tsar Bomba by the Soviets at 53 MT.

      And one of those, I guarantee you, will level the island of Manhattan. Render it uninhabitable for centuries? Probably not. That still doesn't change the fact that 3-11 million people will just cease to exist in a flash.

    146. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by ckaminski · · Score: 1

      Only because 99% of them were either performed at sea, or deep in the desert (nothing to burn). Things would have been mighty different if they'd used the Redwood forest as ground-zero.

    147. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by ckaminski · · Score: 1

      there would be survivors walking out of that building. Survivors would be walking out of a building 1 km removed from a 250 megaton nuclear blast (which is generated by a hydrogen bomb, not a "pure" atom bomb).

      Sure there would. If that building was made of 1km thick concrete and steel.

      <quote>you just can't trust wikipedia for anything which has too much propaganda around it, and there's nothing more propagandistic than a nuclear blast.</quote>

      Except there are dozens of sources, published in real-world and online that predate wikipedia, that agree with them.

      <quote>Just about everyone on the same street as the detonation would die, and the 2 or 3 closest buildings would collapse, killing 50-60% of the people inside those buildings, 5 at best ... and that would be it.</quote>

      A single truck filled with Ammonium Nitrate and diesel fuel managed to take down half a building in Oklahomo City. Did you never see a single picture of the damage such a weapon does, such as the aftermath of Hiroshima, or the Bikini Atoll tests? And WWII battleships were about the best you're ever gonna get for hardened targets.

      Wow, you are either an idiot, or delusional. Yes, the spectre of Nuclear War has been overblown and overhyped, but I certainly wouldn't want to be within 10 miles of such a blast. You don't even start to consider the resulting firestorm damage that would occur.

    148. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by amorsen · · Score: 1

      Crap, the link failed somehow. Here we go again

      --
      Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
    149. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

      Yes, that link talks about getting funding for an enhanced version (RNEP) of the B61-11 design. It still says *nothing* about the B61-11 or RNEP (both nuclear bunker busters) being planned for use in either Iraq or Afghanistan.

      Let me state the request in another way... Please cite me an article that reports a NUCLEAR bunker busters planned on being used in Iraq or Afghanistan. Thanks.

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    150. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by amorsen · · Score: 1

      I didn't say planned, I said considered. Since they (AFAIK) never managed to build the RNEP, it's hard to plan for its use.

      --
      Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
    151. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

      You said; "Nuclear weapons (specifically bunker-busters) were definitely considered for both Afghanistan and Iraq, but they were (fortunately, IMHO) ultimately not used."

      My point is that you provided an opinion with an authoritative/factual connotation to your statement. As such, I responded with a request asking you to cite knowledge backing up your assertion.

      Basically, you were mud slinging a baseless opinion and trying to pass it off as factual. You failed in doing so because such an attempt is always doomed to failure.

      If it's any consolation to you, this type of behavior happens all the time in the media. I call it "journalism malpractice", because that's exactly what it is. It still however does not make you innocent of an intellectual crime against humanity. That of course, is just my opinion...

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    152. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      In groundbursts nuclear weapons are beyond pitiful. Even huge devices will create a radius of destruction that will barely pass the first real obstacle the blast encounters.

      If a groundburst blast hits a house, that will get seriously destroyed. The house behind that will probably remain standing, even if it's only a few dozen meters from the explosion.

      Of course, it will still experience quite a bit of heat (but presumably not in the basement).

    153. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by OeLeWaPpErKe · · Score: 0

      That's exactly why the research was moved away from bigger explosions and towards multi-warhead devices. It might take a 100 Megaton bomb to destroy a small city, but ten much smaller, much simpler one megaton bombs deployed in a circle around the city will create a firestorm that will destroy it just as thoroughly. Modern deployment schemes take full advantage of the interactions between multiple warheads being detonated simultaneously. With relatively modern MIRV missiles, 20 launches can put 200 nuclear bombs into an area, all detonating within seconds of each other.

      Interesting, but you can see by your numbers that the entire nuclear arsenal of the US is -maybe- enough to destroy one decent-sized city, and we're talking an average state capital. It is not enough to destroy a "real" metropolis like London or New York.

      The arsenals of neither Russia nor the US are certainly not enough to reduce a country, even a really tiny one to wasteland. (excepting city states of course, but a tiny country like Holland is WAY to big to be blasted out of existence with current nuclear arsenals).

    154. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by t_ban · · Score: 1

      We need a clear, unambiguous policy that nukes are absolutely forbidden for every state with no double standards. Only then will anyone take disarmament seriously.

      And if a rogue nation chooses not to take it seriously, then what do the others do, having themselves taken it seriously and disposed of their own arsenals? Not having nukes yourself, how do you *force* (after reasoning fails) others not to have them too? This is an anxiety that shall plague even the most benevolent nuclear power (assuming there is actually such a critter), and, i believe, ultimately result in the big powers deciding to retain some nukes after all.

      --
      First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then you win. -Gandhi
    155. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by t_ban · · Score: 1

      we have earned the right to preach.

      if you can say that with a straight face after hiroshima, vietnam and iraq, you only deepen the feeling that american hypocrisy is just about the only thing in the known universe larger than america's imperialist tendency.

      --
      First they ignore you. Then they laugh at you. Then they fight you. Then you win. -Gandhi
    156. Re:Down to 95% of the world's arsenals! by Falconhell · · Score: 1

      See what I mean?

      Murdering scums bags who cant stand criticism.

  6. woohoooo take that!!! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    now you fuckers can only destroy the world once over! ...ooooh wait a second.

  7. Russia and the US have already done this before... by phoxix · · Score: 4, Informative
    Its called Nunn-Lugar/CTR.

    Basically the United States gave Russia a billion or so and tactical/technical/administrative support every year to reduce their weapons stock pile.

    So even when Bush and Putin had their panties bunched up, great work was being done cooperatively by both sides. The program considered pretty successful by government standards.

    I know, I know, the idea of good news from government is a scary one!

  8. Would any country ever give up ALL their nukes? by Trip6 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I think not! These weapons are with us for good.

    --
    I hate being bipolar; it's awesome!
    1. Re:Would any country ever give up ALL their nukes? by tilandal · · Score: 1

      You just have to invent a smaller, cheaper, more mobile weapon which is capable of wider-scale destruction to replace those nukes. Do your part for nuclear disarmament, study physics.

    2. Re:Would any country ever give up ALL their nukes? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      During the 1970s and 1980s, South Africa pursued research into weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons. Six nuclear weapons were assembled[1]. With the anticipated changeover to a majority-elected government in the 1990s, the South African government dismantled all of its nuclear weapons, the only nation in the world to date which voluntarily gave up nuclear arms it had developed itself.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Africa_and_weapons_of_mass_destruction

    3. Re:Would any country ever give up ALL their nukes? by Urban+Garlic · · Score: 1

      There are two historical examples.

      The first is Ukraine, which inherited some fraction of the Soviet stockpile, which they turned over to Russia in exchange
      (IIRC) for Russia assuming Ukraine's portion of the Soviet Union's international debt and various treaty obligations.

      The second is much more interesting, and less widely known -- South Africa. The Apartheid South African government developed a nuclear capability in the 1970s, primarily as a deterrent (they only ever had a few bombs), and made it known through secret channels that, were the Union of South Africa threatened militarily (e.g. by Communist forces in Angola), they were prepared to strike back hard. The government later joined the NPT, and dismantled their nuclear capability, and no longer have an arsenal. They do still have the capability and materials, of course.

      There was a good write-up in "Foreign Affairs" magazine several years ago, and the FAS has this on the topic (which doesn't exactly match my summary above, so I may have mis-remembered it...)

      --
      2*3*3*3*3*11*251
    4. Re:Would any country ever give up ALL their nukes? by cellurl · · Score: 1

      If only we could remote-detonate.
      Something to detonate "their" nukes, on "their soil" right where they sit.
      I am going to think on that! Patent-pending. Maybe a robot ruskie soldier lookalike...

    5. Re:Would any country ever give up ALL their nukes? by TehBrando · · Score: 1

      Its a great fairy tale that nukes wouldn't exist one day, but not everyone will disarm. Many extremist groups will continue to work to get nukes and I'd rather have a couple to launch back than be the person crying and begging them not to launch it at me.

    6. Re:Would any country ever give up ALL their nukes? by Robert+Heinich · · Score: 1

      ... be the person crying and begging them not to launch it at me.

      Unless I was in your neighborhood, why would I cry if they launched at you?

    7. Re:Would any country ever give up ALL their nukes? by FencingLion · · Score: 1

      Probably not every country would do so, but South Africa did.

      --
      Just keep swimming.
    8. Re:Would any country ever give up ALL their nukes? by austin987 · · Score: 1
    9. Re:Would any country ever give up ALL their nukes? by careysub · · Score: 1

      There are two historical examples.

      The first is Ukraine, which inherited some fraction of the Soviet stockpile, which they turned over to Russia in exchange (IIRC) for Russia assuming Ukraine's portion of the Soviet Union's international debt and various treaty obligations.

      ...

      Make that four historical examples, since Belarus and Kazakhstan also hosted Soviet nuclear weapons. In fact, IIRC, Kazakhstan was the last to have its missiles removed since they were the huge SS-18s, the mainstay of the Soviet arsenal.

      --
      Starships were meant to fly, Hands up and touch the sky - Nicky Minaj
    10. Re:Would any country ever give up ALL their nukes? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes. Other countries have had nuclear weapons on their soil under joint USA and host-country control (e.g., Canada), but gave them back to the USA (so, Canada didn't exactly have "their own" nukes, but they had them under partial control, and gave them up).

      The answer is an unambiguous "yes".

    11. Re:Would any country ever give up ALL their nukes? by FrankDrebin · · Score: 1

      "Instead of building newer and larger weapons of mass destruction, I think mankind should try to get more use out of the ones we have" - Jack Handy

      --
      Anybody want a peanut?
  9. It's just MAD not to assure mutual destruction by GargamelSpaceman · · Score: 1

    In this day and age of missiles that can shoot down missiles, you need more missiles not less so that an unstoppable barrage of nuclear death is assured to break through any possible defense.

    --
    ...
    1. Re:It's just MAD not to assure mutual destruction by maxume · · Score: 1

      You don't need to put a bomb on each missile. It is likely much cheaper not to. This is one of the big problems with a missile defense system, decoys are cheaper than the defense missiles (maybe not if you have 1 decoy per missile, but ICBMs often have multiple warheads, and room for multiple decoys).

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
  10. Still plenty. by LaminatorX · · Score: 1

    The new limit works out to roughly one warhead per seventeen thousand square miles of the Earth's land-mass. That's an area a bit larger than the Netherlands. While I'm glad that we'll be spending less in the long run on maintaining and securing the decommissioned armaments, this doesn't really change the picture should the shit really hit the fan someday.

  11. Theory: why no aliens have ever visited us by Trip6 · · Score: 1

    Any species that figures out how to travel in space also invents powerful weapons and blows itself up before it can visit other inhabited worlds.

    --
    I hate being bipolar; it's awesome!
  12. Really?!? by Comatose51 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    But John R. Bolton, who was ambassador to the United Nations under President George W. Bush, said Mr. Obama was going too far. "The number they are proposing for delivery vehicles is shockingly low," he said.

    Really? They're aiming for 500 launch vehicles. Are there even that many targets to nuke or does Bolton just want us to do it a few times over for the refried beans effect? Also, this is 500 launch vehicles and 1,500 warheads so I assume there are some MIRVs in there. I was under the impression that the whole defense aspect of nukes was to make retaliation too expensive for the other side to shoot first. If that's the case, 500 launch vehicles and 1,500 warheads would be enough to make anyone regret it. France, China, and the UK seem to be pretty secure with even less.

    --
    EvilCON - Made Famous by /.
    1. Re:Really?!? by YrWrstNtmr · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Also, this is 500 launch vehicles and 1,500 warheads so I assume there are some MIRVs in there.

      'Launch vehicles' also includes aircraft. B-1, B-2, B-52, and F-16. All of these can also be used with conventional munitions. So bringing down the total number of 'launch vehicles' to 500 will, of necessity, bring the numbers of these aircraft down to some very low, possibly unsustainable, number.

      I'd fully agree with bringing down the number of actual warheads. But when you include aircraft that can also be used for other functions, we may be getting into a place where the conventional forces are too small to do anything.
      The argument could be made that this is a good thing, but that's a discussion for another day.

    2. Re:Really?!? by Talderas · · Score: 1, Informative

      Sort of. That figure does include MIRVs, but those are also trying to be reduce/removed as well. Launch vehicles means missiles, but missile is not the only method by which to deliver a nuclear device. Remember in the 1950s when we have B-50s with nukes on board flying in the air for hours, periodically being refueled? Aside from being a show of force, it was a nuclear arsenal that couldn't be touched by a Soviet nuclear strike. Anyway, we still have aircraft delivered nuclear warheads, and the plane that can deliver a warhead doesn't count against the launch vehicles limit.

      --
      "Lack of speed can be overcome. In the worst case by patience." --Znork
    3. Re:Really?!? by readin · · Score: 1

      Really? They're aiming for 500 launch vehicles. Are there even that many targets to nuke or does Bolton just want us to do it a few times over for the refried beans effect? Also, this is 500 launch vehicles and 1,500 warheads so I assume there are some MIRVs in there. I was under the impression that the whole defense aspect of nukes was to make retaliation too expensive for the other side to shoot first. If that's the case, 500 launch vehicles and 1,500 warheads would be enough to make anyone regret it.

      That may be true for most potential adversaries, but China has historically shown a shocking disregard for the lives of its people, especially during wartime. Even in peacetime they don't seem to care. Mao's policies are believed to have resulted in the death of some 20 million Chinese (as many people as are in entire countries like Australia and Taiwan) during the Great Chinese Famine, yet Mao's portrait still hangs in an honored place at the entrance to the Forbidden City. I'm not sure 1500 nukes landing in China would have the intended effect. And that's assuming they haven't buddied up with Iran, NK, Russia and other states causing the US to have to divide the nuke strikes amoung several nations.

      --
      I often don't like the choices people make, but I like the fact that people make choices. That's why I'm a conservative.
    4. Re:Really?!? by Hatta · · Score: 1

      Also, this is 500 launch vehicles and 1,500 warheads so I assume there are some MIRVs in there.

      A few are probably armed with Death's Heads too.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    5. Re:Really?!? by YrWrstNtmr · · Score: 2, Informative

      Anyway, we still have aircraft delivered nuclear warheads, and the plane that can deliver a warhead doesn't count against the launch vehicles limit.

      Under START I & II, aircraft did count as launch vehicles. Verifiable destruction to include slicing the wings off B-52's, and leaving the carcass outside long enough to be photographed by a Russian satellite. Also, onsite inspections at various air bases and missile launch facilities on both sides.

    6. Re:Really?!? by UnknowingFool · · Score: 1

      Although this treaty does seem to limit launch vehicles, reducing them may not be as detrimental as you fear to conventional vehicles. For the F-16 for example, can launch a nuke but it's main purpose was as an air-superiority fighter. The new F-22 and F-35 does not have launch capability as far as I know. So the F-22 and F-35 probably do not count towards the 500 vehicle total.

      Also bear in mind, the aircraft you listed are being replaced anyway with newer aircraft/weaponry. B-2 is replacing the B-1. New aircraft/weaponry tend to be more expensive but more effective than previous generations and as such the Air Force and Navy are using smaller fleets. This had nothing to do with the treaty but how warfare has changed.

      For example the B-52 was designed for both saturation bombing and nuclear strike. For conventional bombing you might have had to send 2 or 3 B-52s in the past to hit a target with iron gravity bombs. These days a B-52 to hit a dozen targets with precision weapons.

      Also the treaty might allow these hybrid conventional/nuclear vehicles not to be counted if they are simply converted not to be nuclear again.

      --
      Well, there's spam egg sausage and spam, that's not got much spam in it.
    7. Re:Really?!? by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      I really doubt they meant that in this context. START-I, START-II, and the Treaty of Moscow define launch vehicles as ICBM missiles, SLBM subs, and nuclear bombers. Each of these has a particular limit under those treaties. Currently, less than 100 bombers are permitted, and the Treaty of Moscow would make that even less, so it obviously can't be including F-16s. The current number of B-52s, B-1s, and B-2s only just barely makes it under there. A total limit of 500 wouldn't be very strict either: the Treaty of Moscow will set a total launcher limit of under 800, down from about 900 under START-II.

      The trick with limiting warheads but not launch vehicles is that you then have a great difficulty in keeping tabs on where the warheads actually are, which is one of the main reasons that nuclear disarment has got this far.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    8. Re:Really?!? by Talderas · · Score: 1

      Aircraft do not count as launch vehicles. A launch vehicle is a rocket based delivery system. Both missiles and aircraft count as delivery vehicles. The devil is in the details, unless they're using some abnormal definition of launch vehicle. STARTI had separate provisions regarding the number of aircraft each side could deploy.

      --
      "Lack of speed can be overcome. In the worst case by patience." --Znork
    9. Re:Really?!? by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      Those limits numbers are probably off by the way, I'm trying to remember them. I may have confused them with figures for the actual deployed hardware, which is probably close to the limits anyway.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    10. Re:Really?!? by vlm · · Score: 1

      Really? They're aiming for 500 launch vehicles. Are there even that many targets to nuke or does Bolton just want us to do it a few times over for the refried beans effect?

      Start w/ 500 theoretical vehicles. 25% are non operational due to regular scheduled maintenance, waiting on spare parts, reconstruction/rebuilding, waiting on trained personnel to do a simple repair, paperwork screwed up, whatever.

      Of the remaining 375, we could attack with, we'd like to split into four distinct missions. Immediate counterattack/attack. Delayed counterattack, as in stop this foolishness or we pound you just as hard in a half hour. Deterrence against other "enemies" (so, we're fighting the Chinese today, but we'd like to deter the N.K. from starting a fight tomorrow). Finally a quarter or so for reserve, for who knows what, spare parts or alien invasion or blasting a new panama canal or literally who knows, that's the whole point of a reserve.

      Of the remaining 90 for an actual attack, figure maybe 1/2 won't even work. Built by the lowest bidder. Maintenance dude was hung over that day. The Chinese spies that seem to effortlessly steal all our secret designs, were equally successful at inserting a failure mode into the designs. Enemy fighter shot down the bomber. Sub sunk by enemy sub while in the long tedious process of launching. Probably 1 in 10 unmanned rockets blow up shortly after launching when no one is in a particular hurry, so the odds will be worse in wartime.

      Of the remaining 40 or so "kabooms", figure we really are hot for destroying certain targets not just make big random bangs that may or may not do stuff. So, figure on targeting 2 "kabooms" per target to make sure the target is most certainly going to get smooshed.

      So, figure that starting with 500 treaty permitted vehicles, we might actually destroy 20 targets.

      Now, 20 destroyed targets in Cuba is quite impressive, doesn't leave much left standing, definitely a demonstration of your "refried beans effect". 20 vaporized targets in China, not so impressive, not much of your "refried beans effect", in fact most of the country will be untouched and frankly unaffected as long as they don't listen to radio/TV/propoganda.

      Therefore with only 500 treaty vehicles, the USA will no longer be able to deter large countries like China from attacking us. I hope they are nice enough not to, but hope in one hand and ____ in another and see which hand fills up first... We don't need to deter the little countries since the conventional military can smoosh them all on their own.

      So, in a weird way it makes nuclear deterrence obsolete. Therefore we will go back to world wars every generation or two. Hope we all enjoy WWIII while we can!

      --
      "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
    11. Re:Really?!? by YrWrstNtmr · · Score: 1

      Yes, START I & II specifically stated 'heavy bombers'. B-1, B-2, B-52 would be included, and not F-16/18/35.
      So...we reduce the overall number of launch vehicles to 500. Once you include sub and ICBM vehicles, the aircraft component could come down to some very low number.

      It will be interesting to see exactly what this treaty says.

    12. Re:Really?!? by chernevik · · Score: 1

      Fewer armaments don't necessarily mean more stability. The outcome of a chess match where both sides have all their pieces is far less clear than one where one side has two pawns and the other one. There are many scenarios in the latter case where one side can predict victory with 100% -- which would certainly encourage them to play the game for high stakes. I am more interested in the plausible nuclear endgame scenarios than I am in the number of cities we could level with the initial force. That endgame analysis is the one that is going to deter people. The likelihood of someone "going for it" diminishes as the likely endgame states become more clearly and more convincingly bad, and as the diversity of strategic viewpoints convinced of those states grows. You don't have "enough" until the other guy knows damn well you'll have enough no matter what he does. That endgame analysis is currently completely unacceptable to either side. So why would we mess with that? Because there isn't much strategic tension between the US and Russia _today_? No one would have predicted such relations 25 years ago, and I doubt anyone can predict the situation 25 years from now. Russian behavior in Georgia, Chechnya and Eastern Europe hardly suggests they're abandoned their ambitions. I'm sure they have a similar opinion of our activity in Iraq, Afghanistan and Pakistan. The US and the Soviets had constructed a reasonably stable strategic position by the 70s and 80s, which is something of a miracle given the frightfulness of these weapons. I think we'd better be pretty careful before we completely dismantle that. It isn't as if anyone will forget the construction of atom bombs.

    13. Re:Really?!? by rumith · · Score: 1

      As far as I know, Iran and China are no friends. The mere fact that they both aren't fond of the US doesn't automatically make them allies: Iran would happily tear down Israel, China, and promote its influence in the nearby countries (especially those already devastated by a prolonged conflict...) rather than build ICBMs to attack a rather dangerous adversary in the opposite hemisphere.

    14. Re:Really?!? by YrWrstNtmr · · Score: 1

      "The central limits in START I are a limit of 1,600 strategic offensive delivery systems (launchers for intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and heavy bombers) and 6,000 attributed warheads"
      91139: Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (START I & II): Verification and Compliance Issues

    15. Re:Really?!? by Talderas · · Score: 1

      Right, so thanks for iterating my point.

      DELIVERY VEHICLES LAUNCH VEHICLES

      The poster I was replying to stated LAUNCH VEHICLES. Before you snap replies, maybe you should read the friggin thread.

      --
      "Lack of speed can be overcome. In the worst case by patience." --Znork
    16. Re:Really?!? by maxume · · Score: 1

      Would decommissioning the weapons compatible with the F-16 remove the F-16 from the tally?

      --
      Nerd rage is the funniest rage.
    17. Re:Really?!? by Sockatume · · Score: 1

      It's already a very low number, I guess is the main thing I'm trying to say, because it's the main part I can remember accurately.

      --
      No kidding!!! What do you say at this point?
    18. Re:Really?!? by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      A 25% unserviceability rate, and a 50% malfunction rate? Maybe in Mexico! If you actually want to have an accurate estimate, you need to use figures which are at last somewhat realistic.

    19. Re:Really?!? by YrWrstNtmr · · Score: 1

      The poster I was replying to stated LAUNCH VEHICLES. Before you snap replies, maybe you should read the friggin thread.

      Semantics. Launch or delivery, START I & II counted missiles (sub and land based) as well as aircraft. Obviously different numbers for each, but they all counted.

      The person upthread stated that aircraft do not count. I said yes, they did.

      We shall have to wait and see what this treaty says, and how they are defined and counted.

    20. Re:Really?!? by Talderas · · Score: 1

      It's not semantics, the usage of launch versus delivery vehicle does have real strategic implications. Launch vehicles are the fastest methods for delivering a nuclear warhead, and can carry the most devastating warheads. A launch vehicle is going to be a first strike system/retaliatory delivery vehicle. Aircraft based nuclear weapons are not suitable for first strike, and aren't as effective retaliatory weapons.

      Because of that, launch vehicles are the more effective deterrent since they typically are based in hard to strike target, and can get to target faster than other delivery vehicles. You nuke the airbase where some of our B-52s are based and you can take out 12 delivery vehicles. You directly nuke a silo and you will probably prevent that missile from launching, hitting near the silo may not do it. Stopping sub based launch vehicles is also practically impossible.

      Essentially, non-launch vehicles are only useful in these days in a protracted nuclear war. Launch vehicles are what indicate the immediate destructive capability. Reduction in the numbers of launch vehicles are far more significant that the reduction of delivery vehicles, since that gets split among launch and non-launch vehicles as well as reduces the numbers of delivery vehicles that are harder to interdict.

      --
      "Lack of speed can be overcome. In the worst case by patience." --Znork
    21. Re:Really?!? by rickyars · · Score: 1

      you need to have enough launch vehicles to maintain your second strike capability, without which it might be advantageous for your adversary to strike first. so the question is: are 500 launch vehicles enough to (1) survive the initial attack and (2) successfully hit back with enough force that deterrence is still credible?

    22. Re:Really?!? by smoker2 · · Score: 1

      Mao's policies are believed to have resulted in the death of some 20 million Chinese (as many people as are in entire countries like Australia and Taiwan) during the Great Chinese Famine, yet Mao's portrait still hangs in an honored place at the entrance to the Forbidden City.

      That's a very glib way of stating the matter. In fact it was not Maos policies that caused so many deaths, it was the local party members implementation of those policies that did the damage. Because each areas party tried to outdo its neighbours, too much emphasis was placed on looking busy rather than producing results. The big push for iron resulted in deforestation of wide areas around towns and villages as every household had their own foundry. But of course without firewood, people could not cook. The push for food resulted in rival villages competing to produce the biggest animals, like the apocryphal pig as big as a cow. This was obviously not sustainable, and because part of the deal was to send a proportion of the food and iron to the cities, any village who had overstated their output to impress the central party and outdo their neighbours, was left with nothing for the local people to eat.

      Mao did not do this, the people did it to themselves. And by and large they were happy to do so, as they were more free than they had ever been in history since Maos revolutionaries destroyed the ancient feudal emperors hold over them.

      I recommend reading Wild Swans (ISBN 0-00-637492-1), which tells the story of the women in a family starting with the grandmother down to the grand-daughter. It begins in 1909 but from the descriptions, you would think it was the 1500s. By the end of the book, China was a superpower (1978). In less than 70 years they went from medieval to modern contemporary.

    23. Re:Really?!? by debrisslider · · Score: 1

      About half of the U.S.'s current arsenal are submarine based ballistic and cruise missiles. You can pretty much count on the majority of these surviving. That alone is enough of a strikeback capability, especially considering that if, indeed, the Russians (nobody else is capable of a meaningful first strike) dedicated their arsenal (or the majority of it) to a first strike, you don't need to attack silos and air bases but can instead concentrate on countervalue strikes on cities - indeed, assuming that both sides have similarly sized arsenals, the Russians could end up taking worse damage, as they would have to send a huge amount of warheads to Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Colorado to attack mostly uninhabited areas containing Minuteman III launch silos to limit America's ICBM-based launch capacity. Which, clearly, makes no sense; first strikes haven't been realistically 'winnable' since the early 60s when the U.S. still had a much larger stockpile, and especially since the onset of modern-day nuclear submarines. If both sides have the same, or near the same amount of weapons, it is utterly futile, barring some fantastically complex spy system that would manage to neutralize the subs, to launch any sort of mass attack (it gets considerably more murky if you consider a limited nuclear exchange, but we've managed to go this long without one) and expect to get away without a devastating counterattack.

      MAD as a doctrine has managed to prevent nuclear war so far, and I don't see why it shouldn't apply even as we scale down the amount of weapons involved - even the loss of 'a few' major cities (compared to a couple dozen at the height of the cold war) would likely spell the end of the political power of both nations, and a few hundred nukes detonating on your continent is still gonna give a significant portion of your population issues with fallout. Let us not forget the power of the EMP, either - every piece of non-hardened electronics in either country could be disabled with a few high-altitude airbursts. Nuclear destruction isn't simply a function of how large a crater and how many you leave behind - it has permanent and long-lasting effects afterwards.

    24. Re:Really?!? by aafiske · · Score: 1

      Unsustainable? You've watched too much Dr Strangelove. B-52s don't breed.

    25. Re:Really?!? by greyhueofdoubt · · Score: 1

      I really don't think the F-16 should be considered a strategic launch vehicle. If the F-16 is a launch vehicle, then so is an 18-wheeler or a blimp. Yes, F-16's can drop nukes- the nuclear auth switch is on the right console in the cockpit, right of the joystick. However, as a strategic bomb platform, the F-16 is laughably inadequate. Any target short of southern canada or northen mexico will require tanker support, and neither our tankers nor our f-16s are stealthy. Countries overseas, were they to become targets, would be targeted by subs or our strategic bombers that we keep... you know... 'around'...

      The cold war is over, and although first and second generation f-16s were built to be a hail mary nuke platform (hardened systems, special canopy materials, etc.) our current fleet is not equipped, trained, or ready to be part of our strategic forces. And if Nevada starts bombing california, our problems extend way beyond what START or SALT were designed for.

      -b

      --
      No offense, but I've stopped responding to AC's.
  13. So does this mean... by scubamage · · Score: 1

    ...that America and Russia don't want to set the world on fire - they just want to start a flame in your heart?

  14. Re:Russia and the US have already done this before by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

    The program considered pretty successful by government standards.

    Meaning what, a lot of rich fucks got richer, and almost nothing actually got done?

    --
    "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  15. Anyone know by Alarindris · · Score: 1

    Exactly what the difference between 1500 and 2200 nukes is? What has that really accomplished?

    1. Re:Anyone know by broken_chaos · · Score: 1

      Exactly what the difference between 1500 and 2200 nukes is?

      Seven hundred nukes.

    2. Re:Anyone know by u38cg · · Score: 1

      Diplomacy. It's basically two new administrations getting to know each other in areas that they more or less agree on. The US can reduce stockpiles a long way with no significant military compromise, and Russia just needs to reduce its costs. And it looks very good to the masses.

      --
      [FUCK BETA]
    3. Re:Anyone know by causality · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Exactly what the difference between 1500 and 2200 nukes is?

      700 nukes.

      What has that really accomplished?

      It distracted attention away from Honduras, the fact that what happened there was not a coup but actually the application of the rule of law (the removal by force of a wannabe dictator who illegally refused to leave office when his legal term limit had been reached), and the fact that the US president publically supported this wannabe dictator who tried, unsuccessfully and quite obviously, to illegally stay in power (that is, what he did was clearly against the laws/constitution of Honduras). A US president speaking out against the rule of law. Now you'd think that would really be newsworthy and certainly more interesting. Instead we get endless coverage about Michael Jackson and this difference between 1500 and 2200 nukes.

      --
      It is a miracle that curiosity survives formal education. - Einstein
    4. Re:Anyone know by confused+one · · Score: 1

      700 each. If you can't see that 1400 fewer 100kT+ nuclear weapons is a significant reduction, then you're being blinded by something and need to think about it a bit more. You'd be naive to think that the number will ever go to 0. It's not going to happen. You're also not going to get a single massive reduction to a small (100's) number. It's going to happen in steps, like this.

      We've dropped from a peak of > 21,000 nuclear weapons, nearly evenly distributed between the U.S. and the old U.S.S.R. Keep that in mind.

    5. Re:Anyone know by justinlee37 · · Score: 1

      If you can't see that 1400 fewer 100kT+ nuclear weapons is a significant reduction, then you're being blinded by something and need to think about it a bit more

      I don't think he's being blinded by anything. Without knowing how much damage each nuke can cause, or how many nukes it would take to wipe out the earth's population, it's perfectly reasonable to assume that 700 nukes may not be a "significant" reduction. It's a step in a good direction, sure, but I think the OP wanted details about how much destruction was literally prevented. Saying we're "700 nukes safer" is like telling me how many libraries of congress your hard drive can store.

    6. Re:Anyone know by will_die · · Score: 1

      The actual number is less then that. The 2200 is the max under the treaty of moscow and 1500 is the min number under this new treaty, if it is agreed to.

    7. Re:Anyone know by rumith · · Score: 1

      From what I know, that wannabe dictator attempted to organize a country-wide voting. That alone is hardly a crime. Now if he were caught faking the results of the said referendum, THEN we would be able to call him names. Did I miss something?

    8. Re:Anyone know by gmack · · Score: 2, Informative

      I'm blown away that this entirely inaccurate screed got modded informative.

      Said President's term wasn't up until January and as much as he wanted to extend his term limit he wasn't likely to succeed. It also wasn't likely that had he succeeded in extending his term limit he would have been reelected anyhow since his approval ratings were at an all time low.

      I also need to point out that an ally of Chavez he wasn't an American ally by any stretch of the imagination.

      Proper democracies work by voting lame duck leaders out at the end of the term so what happened was a military coup. Obama speaking out against a military coup was, in fact, arguing in favor of the rule of law not against it.

    9. Re:Anyone know by Ill_Omen · · Score: 3, Informative

      Let's get some facts straight here...

      The Honduran President's term was not up. It's not up until January. He was trying to organize a vote on a constitutional referendum to allow him to run for a second term, which would likely have failed anyway. Yes, he was doing something illegal. But so was Nixon, and I don't remember the army ousting him.

      To single out President Obama for his condemning of the coup is pretty disingenuous, considering pretty much every country in the region, and the UN, said the same thing.

    10. Re:Anyone know by confused+one · · Score: 1

      OK, so if you assume it takes 10 or more to effectively destoy a major city*, then that's 70 cities saved.

      * Using my home, a major east coast port, as an example, knowing that it would be a primary target for any military attack, and designing an (insane) all-out attack to completely destroy any capability there: There at least 6 military targets. One of those could easily justify 2 or 3 nuclear weapons, just to be sure it's completely destroyed. There are 2 rail heads, both with major port facilities. A third port facility. 2 civilian airports that could readily be converted for military use. A pair of nuclear reactors in a power plant that supplies the baseload power for the region. So, there's a bit of overlap; but, that's at least 14 weapons. Of course, just one would be enough to perhaps kill a 100k people or so and totally screw up the area for a few years.

    11. Re:Anyone know by MightyYar · · Score: 1

      It keeps the momentum heading in the right direction, if nothing else. Fewer nukes is better than more nukes, right?

      --
      W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
    12. Re:Anyone know by pedestrian+crossing · · Score: 1

      Such hogwash.

      Just like bombing the "aspirin factory" in the Sudan was a "distraction" from Monica Lewinsky. Turns out, Bin Laden was hanging out in Sudan at the time.

      You can't come up with anything better than this partisan horseshit?

      --
      A house divided against itself cannot stand.
    13. Re:Anyone know by u38cg · · Score: 1

      Errm, his term limit expires in January. Zelaya certainly appears to have been playing fast and loose with his country's Constitution, but more so did the military and the Honduran Congress. What is clear is that in Honduras, the military is calling the shots and regardless of the circumstances, that is not right.

      --
      [FUCK BETA]
    14. Re:Anyone know by Shatrat · · Score: 1

      Actually, it is a crime in Honduras.
      The law says anyone who proposes any extension to the term beyond what is set out by law must step down from public office.
      It's an anti-Caesar law.

      --
      09 F9 11 02 9D 74 E3 5B D8 41 56 C5 63 56 88 C0
    15. Re:Anyone know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Horseshit - it was definitively a coup. There was no rule of law involved in ousting Zelaya - and they lied about him writing a termination letter. Why would you lie if you were doing something ostensibly legal?
      What's more, his term limit has not yet been reached, so how can you (ignorant schmuck) accuse him of refusing to leave office?
      He did nothing whatsoever illegal or unconstitutional.
      Zelaya wasn't breaking any laws by proposing a non-binding referenda, but what do you care - go back to your Fox "news" and leave us alone.

    16. Re:Anyone know by Erikderzweite · · Score: 1

      In some countries it is forbidden by law to make a referendum to extend the head's of state term. I believe that is the case in Honduras too.

    17. Re:Anyone know by mellestad · · Score: 1

      You are going to have to cite this. Everything I have seen and read says the same exact thing: He was ousted at gunpoint. If they had impeached him (or whatever) no-one would be whining about it right now and everyone would move on. If a sitting president breaks the law you charge them and convict them, you don't point a gun at there head and install a new leader without a democratic process. Sheesh.

    18. Re:Anyone know by gacl · · Score: 1

      Under the current Honduran law only congress can change the constitution (read: the "privileged class") and Zelaya wanted to allow for the Honduran people to be able to do that. The question is: How can that be done without violating the law?
      True, he probably was going propose to do away with the limits to re-election but that's for the Honduran people to decide.
      Remember that Chavez also tried to extend his term and was rejected by the referendum, and so did Uribe in Colombia. But funny that when (left-wing) Chavez did it the press had a field day, but (right-wing) Uribe's bid for limitless terms is not news.

    19. Re:Anyone know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Which would all be well and good if the Honduran constitution did not have provisions for that _exact_ scenario with very specific consequences (immediate removal from office). His removal was outlined explicitly in the constitution. There wasn't exactly much leeway there.

      The president of Honduras is explicitly denied the privilege of campaigning for or encouraging any sort of effort to avoid constitutional term limits. Any other citizen can do it, but the president can't in any way, shape or form.

      If he had issue with that particular element of the constitution he should have lead the campaign to amend it before his election.

    20. Re:Anyone know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If he violated an order from the supreme court, they might have tossed Nixon. Anyway, carry on with your cheer leading.

    21. Re:Anyone know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      impeached him? he would have closed congress and ask chavez for militar help or something, and honduras would be pretty much be another latin american leftist quasi-dictatorship.
      problem here was tht venezuela provided/financed everything needed for the referendo and now chavez speaks strongly in favour of militar action against honduras.
      worst thing is everybody in the OAS seems to be in his pocket, and there seems to be no leadership coming from the US.
      OAS members seem so hypocrital, they wanted to include cuba as a member again, yet they feel outrageous by honduras coup, which in my opinion may have no be totally legal, but was the only way to keep chavez out, just hope venezuelan people try to take the monkey out of miraflores as well

    22. Re:Anyone know by justinlee37 · · Score: 1

      OK, so if you assume it takes 10 or more to effectively destoy a major city*, then that's 70 cities saved.

      OK, so if you assume it takes 1000 to effectively destroy every major city, then that's 0 cities saved.

      The reality is that all we can do is assume until we know better. Or, you know, we could decide not to assume and be prudent and scientific in our beliefs and assertions.

    23. Re:Anyone know by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      "Yes, he was doing something illegal. But so was Nixon, and I don't remember the army ousting him."

      That's because he voluntarily resigned in anticipation of being charged with crimes and impeached. In the event that he didn't, and would not comply with rulings from the judiciary or houses on the matter, I'm not sure what would have happened. The Supreme Court and Speaker of the House show up and tell him to "get out" of the White House? Or what? I suppose once removed from office the authority would pass to the VP, at which point they could direct the military to physically remove the (former) President from the building. But what if the military leaders refused to comply with that (ostensibly lawful) order?

      The situation in Honduras is more complicated, with the President ordering the military to distribute ballots for his (ruled illegal/unconstitutional) referendum, the head of the military refusing the (illegal) order, the President firing the head of the military, the judiciary restoring the head of the military and ordering the military to arrest the President. The stupid mistake was not *charging* the guy with the unconstitutional actions and following through the legal process rather than deporting him (the latter was probably illegal). "Detain" != "Deport". The military almost certainly exceeded their authority, hence the label "coup d'etat" is probably appropriate, but half of what they were doing (removing the President from office and arresting him) was probably legal.

      A coup isn't the solution either, but it is quite the constitutional mess any way that you look at it, and if you composed a similar situation in the U.S. or any other western democracy, I'm really not sure how it would turn out. It would be messy for sure.

  16. Wrong thing for the right reasons? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Not so sure this is a good thing in the short term - in the long term we're all better off with less nukes about the place.

    My worry is that Russia will use the money, released from no longer having to maintain part of their arsenal, to have another foray into another ex-Soviet state. Their economy isn't looking too healthy, and what better way to detract the population from economic issues than an exciting little war? Putin's not exactly a tree-hugging, peace-loving type, and his puppet Medvedev was happy to go along with the incursion of Georgia.

    Obama's good intentions may just end up haunting him.

    1. Re:Wrong thing for the right reasons? by Big+Hairy+Ian · · Score: 1

      Hmmm sorry I read that and suddenly it occurred to me that you could switch Russia for America and Ex-Soviet for Islamic and your statement would still be just about as accurate.
      Apologies for being a troll

      --

      Build a Man a Fire, and He'll Be Warm for a Day. Set a Man on Fire, and He'll Be Warm for the Rest of His Life.

    2. Re:Wrong thing for the right reasons? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Nice to know that the mass media brainwashing machine is operational.

    3. Re:Wrong thing for the right reasons? by petrus4 · · Score: 1

      My worry is that Russia will use the money, released from no longer having to maintain part of their arsenal, to have another foray into another ex-Soviet state.

      Who gives a shit? The only reason why conventional skirmishes have ever been a problem is because you then have to worry about them going nuclear.

      If the Russians want to go and get a few hundred thousand of themselves killed in Chechnya or the Ukraine, I hope they enjoy themselves, but as long as it doesn't have the potential to become either nuclear or large scale conventional, there's no particular reason why anyone else should care. If Afghanistan didn't teach them anything, then let them bash their heads against the imperialistic brick wall a few more times if they want; aside from the invaded country, it's no skin off anyone else's nose at all.

      Americans need to stop caring so much about every minor regional scuffle that breaks out. Learn to mind your own business, and refrain from getting involved; it will hurt you a lot less in the long run, if nothing else.

    4. Re:Wrong thing for the right reasons? by gtall · · Score: 1

      WWII...we waited, we got hurt, and so did countless others much more so than we.

    5. Re:Wrong thing for the right reasons? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You have some oddball world views. Hippie teachers much?

  17. Keeping Count by DynaSoar · · Score: 4, Informative

    START requires only that the weapons be deactivated, not destroyed. The US currently has over 4,000 "deactivated" nuclear weapons. Believe someone who used to shove them up a Buff's (B-52) belly, they can be reactivated in short order.

    Also, START is 'Strategic' Arms Reduction Treaty. It says nothing about tacticals, either battlefield or ship based weapons, or EMP devices.

    --
    "I may be synthetic, but I'm not stupid." -- Bishop 341-B
    1. Re:Keeping Count by Zantac69 · · Score: 1

      Funny (or not so funny) - I was thinking the same thing. Tactical nukes can range from being used in artillery shells, mines, depth charges, or shoulder fired missiles (i.e. - these are the "suitcase nukes" you sometimes hear about) to being a bit larger - with a yield greater than the bombs used at Nagasaki and Hiroshima.

      I am sure that the US (as well as Russia) has some nukes in their "back pocket" that can be activated in time of need.

      --
      1331461 is only semiprime *sigh* Alas - I am just short of 1337.
    2. Re:Keeping Count by testpoint · · Score: 1

      Just curious. Given the age of Russia's nuclear arsenal, the fact that they were practically operating a barter economy for a decade and the chaos in government leadership, have the Russians maintained these weapons so that any of them can actually be fired?

    3. Re:Keeping Count by Deliveranc3 · · Score: 1

      Actually the "warhead" concept is a little funky, basically there are several (as many as 21+) nuclear explosives in each "warhead" which seperate above a target and hit individually over a range of 20+ kilometres each explosion is usually quite small (in the order of 5-10mt), but that's not the point. The point is one "warhead" can tear up a country fairly efficiently... nuclear subs typically carry about 20-30...

      I'm not some crazy war guy but I find this stuff interesting because it shows the mentality behind their creation and use, reading the themes behind the designs if you will.

      They basically read: Our civilians will get no warning, their civilians will get no warning, all the civilians should die.

  18. iguana is tasty by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    you insensitive clod

  19. Wow - Obama got just what he wanted by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Do you realize how much it is costing to maintain our nuclear arsenal? And that our reactors for making the fissionable and fusionable parts are deteriorating, with little hope of getting a new one approved thanks to the "consortium of idiots afraid of anything nuclear so we'll keep burning natural gas".

    So, this is a win-win.

    1. Re:Wow - Obama got just what he wanted by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is a (US)loses-(Russia)wins.

  20. US reduces, Russia increases by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Russia never reduces its stock of nukes, american fools.

    1. Re:US reduces, Russia increases by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      Actually it does.. Just about half of all the uranium used in the US today for nuclear power generation comes from Russian nukes :-)

    2. Re:US reduces, Russia increases by greyhueofdoubt · · Score: 1

      START and SALT and every other acronym are different things. This new agreement won't lead to cheap nuclear fuel.

      -b

      --
      No offense, but I've stopped responding to AC's.
  21. Big Stick by dwieeb · · Score: 1

    But America is supposed to have the Big Stick! Who will listen to us if our stick shrinks?

    1. Re:Big Stick by confused+one · · Score: 1

      We still have the big stick. it just doesn't glow in the dark quite as brightly...

    2. Re:Big Stick by rumith · · Score: 1

      Don't panic: usually guys with small sticks buy an iPhone or a Hummer to compensate for the size. Oh, wait a minute...

  22. You underestimate the shock and the logistics by Kupfernigk · · Score: 1
    The flooding of New Orleans affected mainly low-lying and poorer areas. It had considerable human effect, but it really had no effect on the productive, organisational and so on capacity of the United States. Now imagine 12 warheads that hit 12 major cities, killing perhaps 30 million people over the next 6 months to a year. You've basically taken out most of the people who know how to organise things and keep them going at a high level. It might be a while before everything collapsed, but I suspect it would do so sooner or later. Modern society is just too dependent on organisation and logistics. You won't be driving nice cars for long because the spares and fuel infrastructure will break down quickly, and the food and fuel shortages will cause hoarding and panic.

    Then there's the psychological effect. In historical war terms, 9/11 was a nonevent. 25000 people are believed to have been killed in one air raid on Dresden in WW2, maybe three times that in a short period at Hiroshima. Yet the psychological effect on the US was tremendous. If a tenth of the population died in an hour, and maybe another tenth over the next year, that shock would be multiplied many times over.

    --
    From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
    1. Re:You underestimate the shock and the logistics by catxk · · Score: 1

      I recognize your argument concerning modern societies' dependence on logistics and organization, but modern societies are also interdependent. If the US would be hit in a way which would kill of the know-how of how to run things, competence from other countries would likely compensate to an extent.

      Take for example your issue with spare parts for cars. For many cars on US roads, spare parts are produced and stored in Japan and Europe. The companies with the logistical capacity are multinational and the expertise those companies hold in Japan and Europe would easily flow in and fill the gaps in the US. Thus, in the case of spare parts, the problem would be limited.

      I realize this is a minor implication seeing the big picture of a massive nuclear strike, but my point is that the fact that the world is "modern" is not only a disadvantage as interdependence makes everything more robust. The internet in itself is probably a perfect analogy.

      --
      Don't be crazy anymore!
    2. Re:You underestimate the shock and the logistics by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      War versus complacency.
       
      The shock of "9/11" was mostly due to the fact that we were not at war, we were complacent. We thought it could never happen to us.

      With Katrina, we saw it coming on our little radar maps and did our best to half-ass prepare for it. After all, hurricanes happen every year. The shock came from the lack of governmental aid once the worst part of the storm was over.

      Hiroshima killed a lot of people very quickly. We were at war, however. Quite a nasty one, or so I'm told.

      The Technology of the Hiroshima bomb was literally nothing compared to what we've got sitting on our missiles in our silos and subs today. After a little research, the Hiroshima bomb was about 18 kilotons. The US currently has 9 megaton bombs.

      If some jackass with a plan gets a hold of anything nuclear (whether he be a head-of-state of a small nation or some member of an organization hell-bent on killing a lot of people), you can bet that the psychological and physical damage will be on a scale as-yet unmatched on this planet.

    3. Re:You underestimate the shock and the logistics by FlyingSquidStudios · · Score: 1

      Imagine the political power struggle for control which would happen if one well-placed nuke took out D.C. when the president and VP were both at home and congress was in session? The surviving administration members, congresspeople and probably a fair number of governors would see this as a chance to grab the power they have craved for so long and things would get very ugly. Meanwhile, every single federal agency in the entire country has no idea where their funding is going to come from since all the people who allocate it are dead.

    4. Re:You underestimate the shock and the logistics by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

      Wait a sec. Are you trying to say that power and control would be returned back to the states? All 50 of them?

      Hey, give me some time to answer that. I'm thinking...I'M THINKING!!! =)

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    5. Re:You underestimate the shock and the logistics by 4D6963 · · Score: 1

      Now imagine 12 warheads that hit 12 major cities, killing perhaps 30 million people

      30 million people with just 12 warheads?! 2.5 million people/warhead, are you fucking kidding? I just don't see how you could even get a tenth of that. Where did you pull that number from, playing DEFCON?

      --
      You just got troll'd!
    6. Re:You underestimate the shock and the logistics by catxk · · Score: 1

      My rant was directed at notion that "modern" societies are more vulnerable simply because they use modern technology and require a lot of know-how to work logistically etc. These are issues that other features of being modern, namely interdependence, would take care off.

      I specifically mentioned that this was only a minor aspect of the consequences of a massive nuclear strike. The political meltdown and the following power struggle you mention would probably be a much more important aspect.

      --
      Don't be crazy anymore!
  23. Re:Russia and the US have already done this before by readin · · Score: 1

    Russia and the US have already done this before...

    Well yeah. Anyone ever here of http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Start_Treaty/? Let me quote the Wikipedia article: START negotiated the largest and most complex arms control treaty in history, and its final implementation in late 2001 resulted in the removal of about 80% of all strategic nuclear weapons then in existence. Proposed by United States' President Ronald Reagan, it was renamed START I after negotiations began on the second START treaty, which became START II.

    --
    I often don't like the choices people make, but I like the fact that people make choices. That's why I'm a conservative.
  24. Getting rid of obsolete weapons by hessian · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Both sides are developing SDI/anti-missile defenses. This makes many of these weapons obsolete, as they no longer have a guaranteed first-strike capability.

    The old arms race was big missiles and bombers; the new arms race is drones and micro-cruise missiles.

    But it was a nice press opportunity for both men to come out smelling like roses while they quietly plan each other's destruction.

    1. Re:Getting rid of obsolete weapons by shutdown+-p+now · · Score: 1

      Russia does not have capacity to compete in high-tech weapons. It has a lot of nifty toys, but those are either leftovers from USSR times, or results of research programs that have been mostly finished before the USSR disintegrated (Tu-160 and Su-35, the bleeding edge Russian military tech, both fall into the latter category). The problem is lack of resources, especially now as the crisis combined with low oil prices has hit Russia very hard (far worse than U.S., for example), and also massive brain drain that has been going for the last 20 years and shows no signs of stopping. Production capabilities for high-tech stuff are also very limited.

    2. Re:Getting rid of obsolete weapons by debrisslider · · Score: 2, Informative

      There's a huge difference between what Reagan wanted with SDI and what is technologically possible even today. Our current ABM programs are designed to shoot down single missiles, from rogue countries or an accidental Russian/Chinese launch. They are in no way feasible for stopping any sort of full-on attack or retaliation. As a strategic weapon, ICMBs and submarine-launched ballistic missiles are FAR from obsolete. Drones and micro-cruise missiles are TACTICAL weapons; you're not going to fight a full nuclear conflict with them.

      I will grant that the idea of a full-scale nuclear assault is an obsolete idea, and nuclear missiles are obsolete in the sense that they will never be used as part of any realistic military objective, and maintaining massive quantities at a moment's notice is a wasteful relic of a reality over two decades past.

    3. Re:Getting rid of obsolete weapons by 4D6963 · · Score: 1

      Both sides are developing SDI/anti-missile defenses. This makes many of these weapons obsolete

      I lol'd. You need a clue, anti-missile defences are anything but efficient, mainly when your launch vehicle throws a dozen warheads and a bunch of decoys around.

      the new arms race is drones and micro-cruise missiles.

      No, it's not an arms race. We fight against barbarians (read terrorists/insurgents/guerillas) who drive trucks, not tanks or airplanes. They don't develop new weapons, they use old AK-47s and whatever equipement from a previous war they have left. We develop these new weapons to be more efficient in fighting them, but also because we fight a different type of war. We don't fight our equals like we did when we fought guys who flew cutting edge fighter planes, we fight people who travel on mules. That's why developing a cheap UAV is more important than developing an expensive air superiority fighter, but by no means is this a race, at all.

      --
      You just got troll'd!
  25. The inevitable tiring from the indefensible by NZheretic · · Score: 2, Informative

    We have been told that because others in the West - and their advocates are here tonight - carry the fearful burden of a defence which terrorises as much as the threat it counters, we too must carry that burden. We are actually told that New Zealanders cannot decide for themselves how to defend New Zealand, but are obliged to adopt the methods which others use to defend themselves.

    Lord Carrington [the Secretary-General of NATO] made a case in Copenhagen recently against the creation of nuclear weapon free zones. He argued that if the people of the United States - as advocated by my friend over there - found themselves bearing the burden alone, they would tire of bearing it. Now that is exactly the point. Genuine agreement[s] about the control of nuclear weapons do not cede the advantage to one side or the other: they enhance security, they do not diminish it. And if such arrangements can be made, and such agreements reached, then those who remain outside those arrangements might well and truly tire of their insecurity. They will reject the logic of the weapon and they will assert their essential humanity. They will look for arms control agreements which are real and verifiable.

    DAVID LANGE, Oxford Union debate, 1985

    1. Re:The inevitable tiring from the indefensible by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 1
      I read through that, and he did not even once mention the Soviet Union, but only criticized the West. Typical 80s disarmament drabble, let's all lay down our weapons and then sunflowers and moonbeans will shoot out of everyone's ass. In 1985, the Soviets were falling desperately behind in technology, and the KGB (the only ones with accurate economic data) knew radical steps had to be taken. They had to "restructure" the economy to get more weapons production, and letting the population have a little bit of economic freedom seemed to be the only way to accomplish this goal. BTW the Russian word for restructuring is "Perestroika" - I think everyone knows what happened after the Soviets adopted that philosophy.

      For homework, how would the agenda of the CPSU party congress in 1986 have been different if the West had followed New Zealand's lead and disarmed?

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
  26. Hopefully, not too far down by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I would MUCH rather that Russia and USA be armed to the point where an ABM site can interfere with a high percentage. In particular, China is now over 600 nuclear-tipped launchers, and appears to be building many more (and may actually already be up to 1000).

    The simple fact is, that MAD prevented the cold war turning hot. Now, with China on a major defensive buildout, mostly space and nukes, the west (and russia) MUST keep its number up. Otherwise, this will encourage a few ppl in China to decide to turn things hot.

  27. Quick agreements are often bad agreements. by reporter · · Score: 2, Interesting
    Please read the essay titled "Arms Control Amnesia" and published by the "Wall Street Journal".

    A member of the bipartisan Congressional Strategic Posture Commission -- headed by former secretaries of defense William J. Perry and James R. Schlesinger -- warns that the preliminary agreement signed by Barack Obama guts part of the American nuclear arsenal but does not demand significant gutting of the Russian nuclear arsenal. Two points of serious note are (1) nuclear launchers and (2) tactical nuclear weapons.

    Nuclear launchers are mechanisms for launching the intercontinental ballistic missiles. The Russians are demanding that we Americans reduce the number of our launchers to 500, but the Russians were already (before the signing of this agreement) planning to reduce the number of launchers to close that number because they cannot afford to replace the launchers that must be shutdown due to reaching the end of their operational life. In other words, the Russians do not make any sacrifice on this matter but demand that the Americans make all the sacrifices.

    As for tactical nuclear weapons, the Russians successfully insisted that these weapons be removed from coverage in this preliminary agreement. The Russians have a 10-to-1 advantage over us Americans in tactical nuclear weapons.

    1. Re:Quick agreements are often bad agreements. by debrisslider · · Score: 1

      Why do we need a substantially larger number of ICBMs than the Russians? So what if they were going to shut them down anyway, it just means we maintain a parity anyway and save a few hundreds of millions in the process. I doubt Obama actually WANTS those excess launchers in the first place. 500 ICBMs is more than enough to overcome any possible Russian military defense, plus we also have 14 Ohio-class nuclear submarines that each carry 14 Trident II missiles, capable of carrying multiple (testing photos have shown five to six) warheads each - as well as 4 subs equipped with 154 nuclear cruise missiles. At least 50% of our total nuclear capacity is sub-based, which is much more secure and efficient than our land-based ICBMs. Britain gets away with having their entire arsenal sub-based, and shifting an even greater amount of ours to subs makes sense financially and militarily. We don't need 2000 warheads these days - China poses no military threat, and even if we cut our arsenal in half we still have more than enough to deter any nuclear attack - what, do you want to keep enough to pretend to ourselves that we have a credible first strike option against Russia?

      Or looking at it the other way, what do we gain by forcing the Russian governemnt to spend billions of dollars it doesn't have to replace aging technology? Don't you think there could be some destabilizing of their government by forcing funds in that direction, giving more power to military contractors, hawks, and maintaining a dated and mutually harmful status quo, taking away money that could be better spent on social welfare or just not taxed at all (or, at least, not spent on the military)?

  28. Didn't we learn ANYTHING from the 80's? by Alzheimers · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The only winning move is not to play

    How about a nice game of chess?

  29. Welcome Back Carter... by hargrand · · Score: 1

    It's nice to see that the appeasement policies of President Carter's second term haven't skipped a beat since the end of his first (there's something to be said for consistency). Still, I find it a bit disconcerting that he appears not to have noticed that there are now other players in the nuclear proliferation game beyond the US and Soviet Union. I hope he plans to give some recognition to that fact soon, since those other players are not nearly as rational and level headed as the USSR.

    1. Re:Welcome Back Carter... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Honestly, if this treaty goes through the USA would still have about several hundred, if not a few thousand, nuclear warheads and various means of delivering them. IMHO, even if we have a sufficent nuclear stockpile to only destroy most of Earth's surface it will still be a sufficient deterent to any country with semi-sane leadership. As for countries with totally insane leaders, or hostile organizations without geographic boundaries, usually these type of threats don't really care how many times you can blow-up the world, so the stockpile size is a non-issue against them.

    2. Re:Welcome Back Carter... by geekoid · · Score: 1

      Of course he does. The bottom line is that the numbers they are cutting back to iour still enough. One of the reason Russia and the US are cutting back is costs to maintain an aging stockpile.

      Ironically if these other countries just didn't bother to develop nuclear weapon, eventually the big players would stop. It's too expensive to maintain.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    3. Re:Welcome Back Carter... by dkleinsc · · Score: 1

      It's nice to see that the appeasement policies of President Carter's second term haven't skipped a beat since the end of his first (there's something to be said for consistency).

      (I guess you're claiming that Obama is a clone of Carter.)

      You do realize that the first incarnation of this particular nuclear arms control treaty was proposed and pushed through by Ronald Reagan in 1982, right? Controlling a nuclear Russia is one of the few areas where there was bipartisan agreement since it became an issue in 1949.

      Plus this sort of treaty isn't appeasement (which would be giving stuff away in the hopes that somebody stops being aggressive): it's a tit-for-tat trading down of nukes on the theory that neither side actually wants to blow up the world and both sides have a significant interest in making sure that terrorists don't get their hands on either side's nukes.

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    4. Re:Welcome Back Carter... by MoeDumb · · Score: 1, Informative
      --
      Mod Me Up. You'll make a grown man cry.
    5. Re:Welcome Back Carter... by hargrand · · Score: 1

      > I guess you're claiming that Obama is a clone of Carter.

      Yup.

      > Plus this sort of treaty isn't appeasement...

      I'll agree that the treaty (to the extent that Obama has actually signed anything at this point) itself isn't appeasement. Being a useful idiot in front of the Russian and International media is appeasement of a sort, however (or put another way "I'll do whatever I need to make people like me").

      Also, the fact that he's over there negotiating with the Russians to reduce our strategic nuclear deterrence while completely ignoring the real problems in Iran and North Korea is the same sort of thinking that put Ayatollah Khomeini into power in the late 1970s (Carter's watch).

    6. Re:Welcome Back Carter... by hargrand · · Score: 1

      Of course after I read this (cited above) maybe Obama signing these accords is unadulterated appeasement after all. Who'd have thought it?

    7. Re:Welcome Back Carter... by mr_mischief · · Score: 1

      That's a good read, but when will people with real-world credentials start to realize there's no use writing for the Times if you want your story trusted?

    8. Re:Welcome Back Carter... by dkleinsc · · Score: 1

      I think you're mistaking any attempt at negotiation with anyone as a signal of weakness, whereas most foreign relations folks see it as a standard tool for getting things done. Remember that this is going on at the same time as Joe Biden appears to be giving the green light to Israel attacking Iran, suggesting that he's not ignoring that problem in the least.

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    9. Re:Welcome Back Carter... by hargrand · · Score: 1

      Certainly honest negotiation to settle differences is an admirable and laudible goal. But it appears that Obama and Hillary have been, to say the least, snookered on this one. I learned a bit more about this agreement and not only does it reduce the number of actual nuclear warheads, but also appears to greatly reduce the number of delivery platforms. With the exception of ground-based ballistic missile systems, all of the current nuclear delivery systems in the US are critical for conventional operations. Reduction of those systems to the agreed to 500 platforms will have a severe adverse impact our ability to complete the mission in Afghanistan and possibly Iraq as well if things start back-sliding, or to respond if either Iran or North Korea or China or Russia start acting in ways counter to U.S. National Security interests. This then brings the U.S. military into more or less parity with the Russian military in terms of numbers of convential munitions delivery platforms. Ours may be more capable, but the gap is narrowing. So much for honest negotiations; it's pure appeasement.

      Of course this might be what Obama had in mind all along... an excuse to trim down the military to fund their increasingly costly domestic programs.

      As for Joe Bidden, I guess he didn't get the memo from his boss that the administration was not going to be letting Israel have any sort of green light to deal with Iran.

    10. Re:Welcome Back Carter... by Omestes · · Score: 1

      this is going on at the same time as Joe Biden appears to be giving the green light to Israel attacking Iran

      [citation needed]

      --
      A patriot must always be ready to defend his country against his government. -edward abbey
    11. Re:Welcome Back Carter... by dkleinsc · · Score: 1
      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
  30. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    So you are saying that minorities shouldn't use their vote to pull themselves out of their bad position? Interesting.

    Tough sell, good luck with that.

  31. What the HELL is wrong with slashdot? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Slashdot has officially jumped the shark.

    120 comments and not a single "In Soviet Russia" joke?

    This is truly a sad day.

    1. Re:What the HELL is wrong with slashdot? by andreyvul · · Score: 1

      In Soviet Russia, the shark has officially jumped Slashdot.

      There, fixed that for you.

      --
      proud caffeine whore
  32. Comes up a little short by hamburgler007 · · Score: 1

    The only good thing I can say about this is perhaps it shows some good intentions. The actual arms reduction doesn't make the world any safer. I would much rather see international collaboration to develop technology that mitigates the effectiveness and deadliness of nuclear weapons.

    1. Re:Comes up a little short by geekoid · · Score: 1

      if you ahve international collaboration, then you don't need said technology. The best way to get international collaboration is through business.

      --
      The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
    2. Re:Comes up a little short by hamburgler007 · · Score: 1

      1. Just because the international community is getting along today doesn't mean it will be getting along tomorrow.
      2. Just because a nation doesn't have nuclear weapons today doesn't mean they won't have them tomorrow.
      3. You don't need every nation with nuclear weapons to collaborate to be meaningful. In fact states without nuclear weapons can still contribute.

    3. Re:Comes up a little short by hamburgler007 · · Score: 1

      One thing I omitted, business does encourage people not to destroy each other. It doesn't dissuade batshit crazy leaders with nuclear weapons (or anyone who happens to get their hands on such a weapon) from using them.

    4. Re:Comes up a little short by jackspenn · · Score: 1

      I would much rather see international collaboration to develop technology that mitigates the effectiveness and deadliness of nuclear weapons.

      So why is Obama entertaining the idea that the US may stop or delay missile defense systems? Shouldn't we be investing more, not less into defensive solutions?

      --
      Respect the Constitution
    5. Re:Comes up a little short by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      The wacky logic is this:

      By building out missile defense, we make our enemies' aresenal less effective, the logical conclusion of which is the day when it becomes ineffective.

      It therefore follows that, being frightened that on that day we will, having nothing to lose, engage in a first strike, they will have to use their materiel while it still is effective.

      Therefore, missile defense systems are a threatening move that invites pre-retaliation and makes us less safe rather than more.

      The logic itself isn't wacky. It's the assumption that it is based on. That communication simply doesn't exist, is unreliable, or that the communicators cannot be trusted anyway. Because that assumption leads to the necessity of nuclear war whether you build out defenses or not.

      The only real solution is for both or all parties to become invested in each other's success. But then it doesn't matter how many big bada boom boxes anyone has, and the number will dwindle on its own out of economic expedience anyway.

    6. Re:Comes up a little short by debrisslider · · Score: 2, Informative

      It depends on what kind of 'solution' you are interested in. The U.S. already has an anti-ballistic missile system designed to stop small-scale launches (a single missile from North Korea, an accidental launch of a Russian or Chinese missile). However, there is no technology that would work in a larger-scale conflict. Nuclear weapons and delivery methods are simply too effective. As has been said many times, hitting a missile out of the air is like hitting a bullet with a bullet, only harder. Technology isn't a quick or easy fix, you have to stop it at the source - it's easier to prevent someone firing a gun than stopping the bullet once it's launched.

      A modern ICBM is very hard to track; it only burns fuel for about 5 minutes, then continues to ascend for 20 minutes, reaching a height of over 1000 kilometers. A MIRVed missile will then break apart into (up to) eight separate warheads, as well as releasing chaff, reflective balloons, and decoy warheads. These warheads then fall to Earth at 4 km/s in less than two minutes, in a variable pattern (something like this ). That is a little under 30 minutes to see the launch, determine the ballistic course, and launch enough missiles from hundreds of miles away to attempt to intercept hundreds of real warheads amongst the greater amount of decoys and penetration aids. Oh, and some warheads can be set to detonate in the atmosphere to create an EMP effect, throwing off radar and other tracking systems. Radar and ABM sites will also be among the first targets. We have a hard enough time shooting down slow-moving single targets (the military has effective tactical anti-missile technology such as the Patriot and AEGIS, but there are orders of magnitude of difference between tactical missiles and ICBMs), but the very idea of a strategic nuclear defense is laughable. We've spent hundreds of billions of dollars on a system that we hope can take out a rogue missile or two.

  33. I think you are confusing kilotons and megatons by Kupfernigk · · Score: 1

    I think you are writing megatons and mean kilotons. The effects you describe are those of tactical warheads, not strategic ones. And your ignorance of the effects of fallout, high atmospheric dust and the rest suggest that you are possibly not a very reliable source generally.

    --
    From scarped cliff or quarried stone she cries "A thousand types are gone, I care for nothing, no not one."
  34. The best wayt o hold off a war by geekoid · · Score: 1

    is to get global corporation into the countries. Once that happens, peace will have a few large corporate allies.
    Allies with access whose best interest is no war.

    Yes, our best way toward global peace is corporate interest.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  35. You Don't Need to Destroy the Whole City by Greyfox · · Score: 1
    Dropping a bomb that destroys an entire city is far too clean. You also need to leave survivors who can relay horror stories before dying from radiation-induced illnesses! That's why my sixth grade teacher told the class that if the alarms ever went off for real he would go outside and face toward the airbase as that'd give him the best chance of the blast killing him. As an aside fucking hippies have no place in the educational system.

    Anywhoo if we ever design a bomb that would cleanly kill all the people, it'd probably never actually get used. Just doesn't have the intimidation value of a good old fashioned nuke. Now a bomb that makes you gay... THAT would get top billing in our military arsenal!

    --

    I'm trying to teach myself to set people on fire with my mind... Is it hot in here?

    1. Re:You Don't Need to Destroy the Whole City by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Most deaths are predicted to be from falling, mainly in the many collapsing buildings. He should have gone up to the roof and stood on the edge of the roof. But the blast might knock him down on the roof, so he should jump off and not wait for the bomb.

  36. From Russia with Zilch by MoeDumb · · Score: 1

    O is a naive waif. Clear-eyed columnist Ralph Peters knows what he's talking about: http://www.nypost.com/seven/07072009/postopinion/opedcolumnists/desperate_deal_177977.htm

    --
    Mod Me Up. You'll make a grown man cry.
  37. Bolton really is a cock by MosesJones · · Score: 1

    John Bolton repeatedly demonstrates exactly why he was a rubbish choice for the UN. From accusing presenters on the BBC Today programme of being "left wing" just because they wanted him to answer a question to his complete and utter inability to view the world through anything other than jaundiced eyes.

    The man is so far out of touch with normal reality and the norms of society as to be scary. Basically if John Bolton doesn't like it then 99.99% of the world's population will almost certainly think its a good idea. Hell he even fell out with Bush and Cheney.

    --
    An Eye for an Eye will make the whole world blind - Gandhi
  38. Wonderful world we live in. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's nice to see this socialist foreign village idiot going around the world apologizing to all the dictators for our evil republic, and spitting in the faces of all the all the freely elected governments we should be supporting.

  39. that is not the worst part by Shivetya · · Score: 0, Offtopic

    the worst part is the Congress using the death as a distraction to get some of their less savory items into law

    --
    * Winners compare their achievements to their goals, losers compare theirs to that of others.
  40. Yes, really. by icebrain · · Score: 1

    Those figures aren't unreasonable at all. High-end military hardware (which ICBMs, bombers, nuclear devices, and submarines all certainly are) are much more complex than your average family car or consumer electronic device, and are often put through much harsher use, even just in training. Consider this:

    Mission-capable rates (the percentage of equipment that, at any given time, is available to perform a mission) for conventional military aircraft generally hover in the 70-90% range. Sustaining a rate of 90%+ is considered phenomenal performance. Periods of sub-60% are not unheard of.

    (incidentally, this appleis to ships, too... most ships spend 1/2 to 2/3 of their time in port or drydock, or in exercises, rather than on deployment. An aircraft carrier, for example, may spend 6 months in port for refit, modification, and resupply, then 6 months training and exercise, then 6 months deployment. That's why 12 carriers in service only equates to 4-5 on station at any given time, plus one or two more available if needed)

    Civilian launch vehicles still experience a number of malfunctions, and that's with an army of support personnel, flexible deadlines, and optimal conditions. Plus, they get rather frequent launches to test things and learn from them. ICBMs and SLBMs don't get that kind of testing due to funding and political constraints, and even when they do, it's under those optimal conditions. And if rockets in optimal conditions still have relatively high failure rates, what does that say about the ones sitting in underground silos for years that have to be launched at a moment's notice?

    Even "simple" guided weapons like laser-guided bombs, SAMs, and AAMs experience a number of failures and near-misses. Hitting a precision target with a ballistic missile is much harder.

    Most nuclear devices in service have not been tested in a long time, and only a handful of them were tested under "operational" conditions. The vast majority were simply mounted in a test fixture and initiated after careful setup. They very well might not respond as well after a high-G launch, zero-gravity and very cold coast, and a very high-G, high-temperature ballistic entry.

    Finally, consider that some portion of your arsenal may be destroyed before launch, or shot down on its way to the target.

    After all that, those servicability figures don't look unrealistic at all--and from what I've read from those "in the business", they might even be optimistic.

    --
    The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    1. Re:Yes, really. by c6gunner · · Score: 1

      I work on "high end military hardware", so I'm rather unimpressed by your explanation. There's a massive difference between maintaining an aircraft fleet which is constantly in use, and maintaining an ICBM fleet which is never used. You give me a couple hundred aircraft which never have to fly and I'll give you a 99% mission-capable fleet on a constant basis. The kind of figures you're quoting don't even occur on fleets in regular use, let alone ones which are never operated.

  41. Is such arms reduction really a good idea when... by eosin · · Score: 1
    ...China isn't really doing the same level of reductions and does provocative things with subs, India and Pakistan have nuclear pissing matches, North Korea is doing best to throw a nuclear tantrum, Iran wants nuclear armageddon to bring the last prophet, terrorist NGOs are on their way with the help of Iran and Pakistan, and various mafia organizations would like to get their hands on the ultimate extortion tool?

    Disarming oneself in a war zone and letting everyone know it is a foolish idea. We can negotiate with Russia, but until the various nuclear loose cannons in the world shape up, such arms reductions are foolish. Although I'm actually more peeved that our missile defense funding was substantially cut, as if that would make us all safer.

  42. If you ask me, all WMDs should be banned. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ALL the WMDs need to get dismantled. There is no reason for having something that could wipe the whole earth clean many times over. It's like having a hummer.
    Who cares if you have a tough hummer if you don't even use it (I'm referring to the H1. The H2/3 could just be KIAs with a shell for all they're worth.)

  43. Mod parent up! by nem75 · · Score: 1

    I read the GP's post, got interested and read up on the situation on various news sites, now couldn't agree more with parent. Don't mod everything informative just because it's well written, dammit.

    1. Re:Mod parent up! by ZFox · · Score: 1

      Why was it a military coup when it was ordered by their congress, their supreme court, and their constitution? Zelaya fired himself the moment he called for the referendum. This is under direction of their constitution and their rule of law and there is good reason for it, too, given the history of the country and surrounding areas.

  44. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by FireHawk77028 · · Score: 1

    So you are saying that poor people shouldn't use their vote to take from them rich and give to the poor?

    Next time you go out to eat, call a vote that the richest person in the place picks up the bill for everyone, I'll bet majority wins.

    It isn't governments job to "pull them out of their bad position" its their own individual job. There are no laws stating "minorities are not allowed to be paid more than 90% of the non-minority employees".

    Oh yea, and these terms suck. "minorities" make up the majority. Its a BS term for people to group together around some idea they can claim they were treated unjustly for. I'm not saying there has been unjustice, but this is 2009 not 1950. Asians make more on average than whites, shouldn't whites get special treatment now? BS.

  45. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by MightyYar · · Score: 4, Informative

    It isn't governments job to "pull them out of their bad position" its their own individual job.

    No, but it is the government's job to stop the majority from actively keeping them in a bad position. Jim Crowe was only a few years ago.

    but this is 2009 not 1950

    Try the late 60s, which weren't so long ago. Many people who still hold a lot of sway were either part of the problem or are directly descended from those people. I'm white and I hear what other whites aren't afraid to say about blacks when there aren't any blacks around. To imply that racism is dead among whites is very disingenuous.

    Asians make more on average than whites, shouldn't whites get special treatment now?

    No. Asians tend to make more in the US because they tend to come here as well-educated people who bear well-educated children. This is not an injustice, just a statistical anomaly, and a direct result of our immigration policy. Visit Asia sometime if you think that Asians can't be poor and ignorant. Blacks come from a history of being ACTIVELY held down, and it's going to be a while before this nation recovers from that. Having blacks in powerful positions helps their cause, and they know that and vote accordingly.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  46. For more about NonProliferation by twmcneil · · Score: 3, Interesting

    I can recommend the book Epicenter of Peace by Nursultan Nazarbayev, President of Kazakhstan. While Nazarbayev is not very well liked in certain circles for other reasons, the book is an interesting story of why he decided to lead Kazakhstan to denuclearization.

    One of the many things I learned from this book was the difference between nonproliferation and denuclearization. Kazakhstan didn't simply agree to store away the warheads like the U.S. and Russia have agreed to do, they dismantled them and shipped them entirely out of the country (basically to Russia and the U.S.). Then they dismantled the accompanying infrastructure, reseach facilities, education facilities, etc so that hopefully, nuclear arms would never again be deployed in Kazakhstan.

    It's an interesting story.

    --
    "The ferrets, they're every where I tell you!"
    1. Re:For more about NonProliferation by nidarus · · Score: 1

      As far as I understood it, the Russians just said to the Kazakhs "disarm, or else", and the Kazakhs didn't have any choice. Obviously, they had nukes, but Russia had a shitload more, and was several times larger as well. It was a wise choice, but it's not really the same kind of nuclear disarmament as with Russia and the US.

  47. Question! by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Would they be able to use up the dismantled nuclear materials to make another reactor with without having to pay for mining of the stuff...(plutonium, uranium, etc..), or is the materials wasted in the making of the warhead to begin with?

    1. Re:Question! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Yes to the first part of your question. It's ultimately the best disposal method: you mix the highly-enriched uranium or plutonium (i.e. weapons-grade) with depleted uranium, effectively undoing the hard work it took to isotopically separate them into weapons-grade materials in the first place. Refer to the Megatons to Megawatts Program for more details. If you are wondering where the depleted uranium comes from, there are tons and tons and tons of the stuff left over from the enrichment process, or they can just blend it with natural uranium.

    2. Re:Question! by greyhueofdoubt · · Score: 1

      The nukes aren't being dismantled, merely deactivated. Make no mistake, they will be kept in a convenient spot where they can be dusted off periodically.

      -b

      --
      No offense, but I've stopped responding to AC's.
    3. Re:Question! by hesaigo999ca · · Score: 1

      Actually I think you are quite right...sorry for thinking they meant what they said about not NEEDING them, and only really meant not HAVING any readily available.

  48. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    Next time you go out to eat, call a vote that the richest person in the place picks up the bill for everyone, I'll bet majority wins.

    In your hypothetical experiment, do the people know before voting who that is?

    It'd be quite interesting if they didn't. I've suspected since the days of Thatcher and Major that people vote above their paycheck.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  49. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by Hognoxious · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Blacks come from a history of being ACTIVELY held down, and it's going to be a while before this nation recovers from that.

    Is there a white equivalent of the NAACP? Is there a Caucasian College Fund?

    At a certain point, the effects of ancient history have dwindled to nothing. I'd say that point is already past.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  50. The rule of the Constitution by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Now let's see if the news media reports what Obama does any better than they've been reporting Honduras removing a law-breaking president. Obama doesn't think this treaty with Russia will be approved by the Senate, so he wants to use presidential decrees to make the same changes. Just follow the rules and give it to the Senate.

  51. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by MightyYar · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Is there a white equivalent of the NAACP?

    No, why would there be? Was there a white equivalent of slavery in the US?

    Our histories are parallel and intertwined, but not equal. Without injustice, the NAACP would not be necessary. The NAACP was started in the early 1900s, when blacks often couldn't vote or stay in the same hotel or use the same drinking fountain. The NAACP is a demonstration of exactly what I'm talking about - we still haven't healed.

    Face it - in the US it is still a tremendous advantage to be a white man.

    At a certain point, the effects of ancient history have dwindled to nothing. I'd say that point is already past.

    The numbers disagree with you. Blacks are still disadvantaged. If you, as a white guy, don't see racism on a day-to-day basis then I'd say you aren't paying much attention, or you are very lucky and live in a place which I would love to move to.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  52. Still 5,576 warheads too much! by Hurricane78 · · Score: 1

    So why exactly does anyone on this planet need those nukes? It reminds me of the Doomsday device of Dr. Strangelove.

    I really with that some extraterrestrial aliens would kick all government's asses, until they wise up!

    --
    Any sufficiently advanced intelligence is indistinguishable from stupidity.
  53. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Is there a white equivalent of the NAACP? Is there a Caucasian College Fund?

    At a certain point, the effects of ancient history have dwindled to nothing. I'd say that point is already past.

    "wahhhh... I'm a white man being held down by the black man."

  54. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by quax · · Score: 1

    As a German I know that money can never compensate for what my nation did to its Jewish citizens and other unwanted ethnic groups (such as Sinti and Roma). Nevertheless I take a small measure of satisfaction in the fact that compensations payments have been made and my nation actively tries to live up to this terrible responsibility.

    While the level of genocide committed by my nation is unprecedented I think it is probably fair to say that the worst outrage and crime against humanity before WW2 was the organized slavery that the Anglo-Saxon world engaged in . Especially since it went on for centuries.

    With regards to the United States it totally flummoxed me when I learned that no reparation payments have ever been made nor did Congress ever see fit to issue an apology on behalf of the American people.

    This is not ancient history. After all Martin Luther King was shot over the struggle to gain full equality. If you can not see a direct line from slavery to the civil rights movement than I think you must be in deep denial.

  55. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by memnock · · Score: 1

    With regards to the United States it totally flummoxed me when I learned that no reparation payments have ever been made nor did Congress ever see fit to issue an apology on behalf of the American people.

    i'm not sure myself, but my guess is that most elected officials (those who could legislate government-sourced reparation) or legislate/force reparations from desecendants of the original slave owners weren't the slaves or related to the slaves or foresaw any major benefit from reparations.

  56. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by analyticaldude · · Score: 1

    I currently live in southern Arizona. Unless you have a college degree in a field that does not require you to work with the public, it is nearly impossible to find work here unless you speak fluent Spanish. That has been the only discrimination I have witnessed since moving here 2 years ago. Before moving, I lived in a town in the northwest part of the U.S. and witnessed no racism during my 45 years there. I am certain racism against minorities does exist in this country, but not everywhere.

  57. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by Falconhell · · Score: 1

    Please do not reply to this stupid racist troll, he posts this crap every few days.

    Ignoring these assholes is the way to go.

  58. What about the yield by Kiuas · · Score: 1

    I'm always curious about whether or not these kind of treaties only restrict the number of warheads or the total yield of the arsenal. Of course, less nukes is always good, but if the agreement only says you must have less nukes, it doesn't stop you from making those nukes even more powerful.

    --
    "It is the business of the future to be dangerous" -Alfred North Whitehead
    1. Re:What about the yield by greyhueofdoubt · · Score: 1

      There really exists a certain point where a more powerful weapon won't do a proportionally greater amount of damage. A 100 megaton bomb will not do ten times as much damage as ten 10-megaton bombs. This is basically geometry at play here (spheres and circles and inverse square laws and stuff). Diminishing returns, that's the phrase I was looking for.

      Lots of good info out there about why our nukes are as powerful as they are and not more powerful, if you can believe that.

      -b

      --
      No offense, but I've stopped responding to AC's.
  59. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by sumdumass · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Actually, most of the slavery was carried out by the Africans. In fact, Africa is the only continent that still has legal slavery to this day. And the so called Anglo Saxons consisted or Portuguese ans Spanish who purchased the slaves from African tribes and sold them to settlements under the British crown.

    As for reparations, they have already been paid in both the loss of life in gaining the freedoms of the slaves and in the welfare and housing benefits given to minorities and the special treatment they got starting with the civil rights legislation of 1964. Every descendant of a slave has had the opportunity to be more then anything that the slavery took away. Even if you attach the Jim crow laws that were around as late as the early 1960, this means that almost every distressed minority is at least 1 generation out if not 2 or more. There is no need for a cash payment or anything because the people who were harmed and their families directly effected are no longer alive.

  60. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by Maxwell'sSilverLART · · Score: 0

    Is there a white equivalent of the NAACP?

    No, why would there be? Was there a white equivalent of slavery in the US?

    Our histories are parallel and intertwined, but not equal. Without injustice, the NAACP would not be necessary. The NAACP was started in the early 1900s, when blacks often couldn't vote or stay in the same hotel or use the same drinking fountain. The NAACP is a demonstration of exactly what I'm talking about - we still haven't healed.

    And the NAACP intends to make damned sure we don't. If nobody believed there was a problem, they'd have to find honest work. Much easier to fan the flames and make sure that everybody knows how big the problem is so that race-baiters will continue to have power.

    Cases in point: Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton.

    --
    Moderate drunk! It's more fun that way!
  61. Strange by lennier · · Score: 1

    So THAT'S where the name "Dr. Strangelove" came from! *finally clicks*

    --
    You are not a brain: http://books.google.com/books?id=2oV61CeDx-YC
  62. Somewhere, Hideo Kojima and Solid Snake... by Money+for+Nothin' · · Score: 1

    ...are simultaneously jumping for joy and laughing cynically, as the terms of the original START treaty were a distant goal from the current-state in 1998, when the original MGS game was released, and which informed us all of the sad state of nuclear weapons disarmament agreements.

    What was it - some 26,000 nuclear warheads remained between the U.S. and Russia in 1998, whereas the START II treaty called for a maximum of 6,000 per nation? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/START_I)

  63. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by MightyYar · · Score: 1

    Cases in point: Jesse Jackson, Al Sharpton.

    First of all, those guys are a product of the times they grew up in. You can hardly blame a guy who grew up during Jim Crowe for believing that blacks have a raw deal, or for seeing the world in terms of skin color.

    Second, they are dinosaurs who aren't nearly as relevant as they were in the 60s, 70s, 80s, or even in the 90s. If you are basing your opinion of the black community on Jesse Jackson or Al Sharpton, then you aren't really getting a very good picture.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  64. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by MightyYar · · Score: 0

    LOL, well I suppose one way to get away from racism is to move to where there aren't any black people, but that wasn't really my intention :)

    I've lived in the Northeast my whole life, and I can assure you that I have seen a lot of racism from the whites here. Mostly in the form of racist comments and jokes among other whites. I've also seen racist blacks... I went to school in West Philly, after all. But a racist ghetto rat isn't exactly going to keep me from getting a job.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  65. Tell me when by Deliveranc3 · · Score: 1

    they figure out how to remove the nukes buried in each others cities.

    ICBM = $2,000,000,000. Bribing a border guard = $50.

    Sigh... It's fine if there's only two countries with nukes, but when you New York just blows up and you don't know who did it... well, I'm not sure what you'd do.

  66. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by Deliveranc3 · · Score: 0, Troll

    Face it - in the US it is still a tremendous advantage to be a white man.

    Observe the ugly face of reverse racism.

    Yes you are better liked by racists, but they're morons... I'm not sure that's an advantage. I'd rather have them insult me right away and demonstrate their ignorance then let me wait years to find out they are ignorant.

    A lot of what is attributed to racism these days is just anger. If I get angry and I want to say the most hurtful thing I can think of sometimes it will be racial... hopefully I'd know about your real flaws before hating you but people are reactionary.

    I am from Canada, white, colourblind and a believer in Eugenics (though I think we don't know enough to know what traits to breed for... we'll let the women figure it out :P). It bothers me that I can't have those opinions because of my ethnicity, it doesn't matter what other people who happened to share my ethnicity believed... I am an individual.

    Statistics apply to groups, not to individuals... the solution to the opportunities provided by coming from money can only be solved by something resembling "Brave New World", yea we could go there... but lets not. I like meeting individuals.

  67. There must be money in it... by akayani · · Score: 1

    The US built these devices because corporations insisted they were necessary (necessary for profit) so we can only assume that they are being dismantled because someone is making money from it.

    This has always been a lot less to do with national security than it was good salesmanship by arms manufacturers. There are clearly products that are more profitable to make that are more likely to be blown up and need to be replaced.

    There is no cash in servicing nuclear weapons but there are a few dollars in pulling them apart.

    The safety difference to the world in countries owning 100 - 20,000 nukes is bugger all. It's a logarithmic curve where 500 is just as insane as 10,000 or very insane.

  68. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by DigiShaman · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Blacks come from a history of being ACTIVELY held down

    That USED to be the case, but not anymore. Today, the actively hold each other down as they accept government hand-outs and cling on to a state of "victimization". Simply put, it's a culture thing. Not race.

    It's the truth. Just look at the numbers. Per 2007 data, Whites make up 80% of the population while blacks make up 12.8%. However, American Indians only make up 1% while Hispanic make up 15%. This is important to point out for the simple fact that three of the four races I mentioned do *not* bitch about their situation even the slightest when put in comparison.

    While I really do feel bad how blacks were treated in America's history, they no longer have any excuse to be clinging on to victimhood in this day and age.

    --
    Life is not for the lazy.
  69. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by quax · · Score: 1

    Yeah, nothing to see here move on.

  70. START, not Start by AP31R0N · · Score: 1

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/START_I

    It's an acronym, not a word.

    --
    Utilizing the synergization of benchmark e-solutions to pre-workaround action items!
  71. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by MightyYar · · Score: 1

    Today, the actively hold each other down

    Actually, this whole discussion started because they all pulled together (as they nearly always do) and voted in a monolithic block, thus increasing their political muscle.

    However, American Indians only make up 1% while Hispanic make up 15%.

    Native Americans were nearly wiped out and moved to reservations. The reason YOU don't hear them "bitching" is because they don't live among us for the most part. If you Google even a little bit, you will see plenty of "bitching". Similarly, you must have your head in the sand if you don't think Hispanics are trying to better their situation. Did you completely miss the millions of marchers that protested in spring of 2006?

    While I really do feel bad how blacks were treated in America's history, they no longer have any excuse to be clinging on to victimhood in this day and age.

    You say "this day and age" as if we live in an "age" that is so far removed from the late 1960s. There is still a lot of racism in this country, no matter how much you choose to ignore it. The only way to get rid of it is to talk about it.

    You may or may not like Obama, but whatever your feelings on him he is a unique politician in that he has a black family and some (non-American) black ancestry, yet was raised by whites. This gives him a unique perspective on race issues, and he is spot on. Watch his race speech or read it if his manner bothers you - if you can understand his speech you will have a better understanding of the problem we face in this country. People aren't going to stop "bitching" until his points have been addressed - so the pragmatic thing to do is either address these points or get used to the "bitching". Where there's smoke, there's fire.

    Also, I apologize for linking the Huffington Post - it was the first Google hit for the text of the speech :)

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  72. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by MightyYar · · Score: 1

    Yes you are better liked by racists, but they're morons... I'm not sure that's an advantage.

    That's not true. Many small business owners are racists - I know some myself. Not everyone works for a major corporation with affirmative action in place to spot problems.

    I'd rather have them insult me right away and demonstrate their ignorance then let me wait years to find out they are ignorant.

    That much is certainly true, but it doesn't make your job search any easier.

    It bothers me that I can't have those opinions because of my ethnicity, it doesn't matter what other people who happened to share my ethnicity believed... I am an individual.

    Eugenics is considered to be a pretty whacky thing to believe in - no matter that you are white. Anyway, any pragmatic eugenics fan would be for dark skin anyway - better sun resistance and the only down side is vitamin D deficiency, which is not a problem with our modern diets.

    Personally, I think there is no need for Eugenics - natural selection does a wonderful job of keeping us matched to our surroundings.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  73. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

    You say "this day and age" as if we live in an "age" that is so far removed from the late 1960s.

    Correct. That's because we do in fact.

    There is still a lot of racism in this country, no matter how much you choose to ignore it.

    And there always will be racism. The question at hand is whether or not it's vocal. The black community (and this advice applies to everyone actually) just needs to rise above it and tell those racist bastards to piss off.

    I'm white, but my fience' is Chinese (born in Shanghai). Her parents don't want her being with me for the simple fact I'm white and not asian. Well, they will just have to get over it. We love each other very much and we both understand we cannot *make* people not be racist. I will not let their unfounded ignorance drag me or her down. She feels the same way.

    You may or may not like Obama, but whatever your feelings on him he is a unique politician in that he has a black family and some (non-American) black ancestry, yet was raised by whites.

    I like him as a person, sure. But I abhor his political and governmental philosophies (not saying McCain would be much better). Race has nothing to do with it. In fact, the only two other people in office worse then him is Nancy Pelosi and Herry Reid (we are sooo fucked).

    --
    Life is not for the lazy.
  74. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by MightyYar · · Score: 1

    Correct. That's because we do in fact.

    I'm sorry but I just can't agree with you. My parents were very alive during the civil rights movement, and my wife was born before it was legal for blacks and whites to marry in some states. Maybe my kids have been born into a new age, but as long as the victims of oppression are still alive, I can't see how you'd expect them to be anything but a product of that oppression.

    Can we agree that we are in a period of transition from one age into another?

    The black community (and this advice applies to everyone actually) just needs to rise above it and tell those racist bastards to piss off.

    I have no problem with them doing that, but I also have no problem with them taking other steps to improve their situation... such as voting for other blacks.

    I'm white, but my fience' is Chinese (born in Shanghai).

    I'm also in a mixed-race marriage - my wife is from the Caribbean. Even though she's not an American black and doesn't carry the same emotional baggage, she's still helped me understand the mindset of an oppressed minority. You can't undo damage done during childhood with the passing of laws. Nor can you undo hundreds of years of ethnic-based conflict in a short period of time. My wife and I both understand the "black" and the "white" perspective now, but it took a couple of years of some pretty emotional fights and a lot of trust building.

    Regarding Obama, I made the difficult choice of voting for him because I think his being President will be good for my daughter's self-esteem... someone who looks like her is President - that's a very powerful role model for a child. He also brings the race discussion out into the open, which I think is good for the country. I share your skepticism about his political philosophies, but frankly those are fleeting and less important than how well we as Americans all get along with one another. Besides, McCain ran his campaign like a deranged monkey toward the end and really pissed me off :) And in the end, both men had a nearly identical platform - differing only in the details.

    I loathe Nancy Pelosi. She is just the worst kind of politician. And to think that people thought Newt was out of control when he was Speaker! She's like a she-Newt without a "Contract with America" to work from.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  75. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    You might like to learn the difference between the past and the present.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  76. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    Compensate them based on the difference between the average standard of living in the US compared with the countries their ancestors came from.

    It'd clear the national debt overnight.

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  77. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by MightyYar · · Score: 1

    Did you have a point or were you just trying to insult me?

    In the PRESENT, blacks are still actively discriminated against. In the PRESENT, it is still advantageous to be a white male in the United States of America. Are you really disputing this?

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  78. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    Any group is actively discriminated against by members of other groups. Are YOU claiming it's still enshrined in law?

    Which one are you - the effeminate sounding Jar-Jar lookalike or the pitbull who can barely string a sentence together?

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  79. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You do tend to answer "is/are" questions with "was/were" answers.

  80. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by MightyYar · · Score: 1

    Any group is actively discriminated against by members of other groups. Are YOU claiming it's still enshrined in law?

    You seem to be of the opinion that the government's job stops at simply being unbiased. I'd argue that the government's main legitimate purpose is to protect us - including protecting our rights. Many whites, who at the moment are a majority in this country, regularly discriminate against blacks. This violates a person's right to liberty and the pursuit of happiness, and therefore the government needs to take action.

    Note that my idea of "action" is not to force anyone into anything - I don't like quotas and think they are counter-productive. Education, dialog, and data collection (like affirmative action) are what the government should be doing - and this is for the most part what they are doing today.

    Your link is rather sad. Do you really think that most black people want to exterminate whites? The black panthers aren't a group I support, but go ahead and build up a straw man. You really wanna play that game? The Klan predates the black panthers. Militancy breeds militancy.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.
  81. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by Hognoxious · · Score: 1

    Except it doesn't stop at being unbiased - hence affirmative action (also known as discrimination against people liberals don't approve of).

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  82. Re:Afro-American Racism Against Whites and Asians by MightyYar · · Score: 1

    It's been a while since my affirmative action class, but I can tell you that isn't how it was used at my company. The goal is to seek out under-representation, not give any group a particular advantage.

    You look at your group of engineers, for instance. If local schools are graduating 6% women, and your group is only 3% women, then you examine your organization to see why there is this discrepancy. Without government-collected data, it is very hard to do this kind of analysis.

    --
    W..w..W - Willy Waterloo washes Warren Wiggins who is washing Waldo Woo.