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Early Abort of Ares I Rocket Would Kill Crew

FleaPlus writes "From studying past solid rocket launch failures, the 45th Space Wing of the US Air Force has concluded that an early abort (up to a minute after launch) of NASA Marshall Flight Center's Ares I rocket would have a ~100% chance of killing all crew (report summary and link), even if the launch escape system were activated. This would be due to the capsule being surrounded until ground impact by a 3-mile-wide cloud of burning solid propellant fragments, which would melt the parachute. NASA management has stated that their computer models predict a safe outcome. The Air Force has also been hesitant to give launch range approval to the predecessor Ares I-X suborbital rocket, since its solid rocket vibrations are violent enough to disable both its steering and self-destruct module, endangering people on the ground."

414 comments

  1. Re:Badass by Eternauta3k · · Score: 0, Troll

    That's the plan. They do the launch, if it goes wrong they turn the footage into a movie. If it goes right they stage a 'live' launch and broadcast the recordings.

    --
    Yeah. Would you choose a neurosurgeon who pokes around people's brains in his spare time? I wouldn't.
  2. 100% by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Spaceflight was so much easier forty years ago...

    1. Re:100% by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Spaceflight was so much easier forty years ago...

      Shame, huh..

    2. Re:100% by kestasjk · · Score: 4, Insightful

      It was a lot easier when people accepted it was a dangerous job

      --
      // MD_Update(&m,buf,j);
    3. Re:100% by Hymer · · Score: 3, Insightful

      40 years ago astronauts (and for that matter cosmonauts too) were test pilots which knew that the possibility (or risk) of dying was a part of their daily job.
      It was first after the Apollo disaster that dying on the job became politically incorrect... very much because of the media coverage.

    4. Re:100% by TheTurtlesMoves · · Score: 0, Troll

      100% liquid fuel was always the right way to do. Loose the solids...

      --
      The Grey Goo disaster happened 3 billion years ago. This rock is covered in self replicating machines!
    5. Re:100% by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Informative

      loose?

    6. Re:100% by turgid · · Score: 0, Troll

      You know, I think we should bring back gladiators. Wouldn't it be cool to see people fighting until someone gets hacked to death?

      Wouldn't it be cool to see a few spacemen getting burnt to death too?

      How about we take the safety rules out of Formula 1 racing? A few decapitations and dismemberments would make it so much more exciting! How about folks being burned alive in agony as the rest of us look on?

      Gee, what a boring, wussy, politically-correct world we live in.

      Hell, lets see some Sharia punishment on TV live from Sudan. I'd just love to see some real stonings, amputations and beheadings. And how about some young women being flogged to death?

    7. Re:100% by HungryHobo · · Score: 1

      So you're saying people watch space launches in the hope of seeing some flaming chunks of human flesh?

      Want to be an astronaut? You might get blown up.
      That isn't the same thing as saying "lets set fire to people for fun"

    8. Re:100% by turgid · · Score: 1

      My point is that we shouldn't glibly be accepting more risk than we have to. NASA has quite plainly chosen the wrong design here for political reasons. This is not progress. They should be engineering out as much safety risk as is practicable (or reasonably achievable) while achieving the goal of putting people into orbit.

      I know they want to keep the ATK people in a job, but the Ares V will be using the SRBs, so why put them on Ares I?

    9. Re:100% by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Spaceflight was so much easier forty years ago...

      Tell that to the 3 Mercury pilots burned alive... No risk. No reward.

    10. Re:100% by SvnLyrBrto · · Score: 2, Informative

      Those three were Apollo astronauts. And only one on them had been part of Mercury.

      --
      Imagine all the people...
    11. Re:100% by spacefight · · Score: 1

      Spacefight is so easy nowadays... oh wait, you ment Spaceflight!

    12. Re:100% by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 1

      This may come as a shock to you, but test pilots aren't actively suicidal. They accept the risk of death as part of their job, sure, but they do this in order to make the craft they fly safer.

      "Politically incorrect"? "Media coverage"? Jesus. Dying on the job is unpopular because it involves, you know, dying on the job. And when three men burn to death with hundreds of others listening to their screams, most sane people take that as a sign that something needs to be fixed.

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
    13. Re:100% by amorsen · · Score: 1

      How about hybrids? They seem to provide the best of both worlds, and even Mythbusters have managed to build one.

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      Finally! A year of moderation! Ready for 2019?
    14. Re:100% by TheTurtlesMoves · · Score: 1

      Indeed. I think they could be a good middle ground. But only if pressure fed (aka not turbo pump development). Otherwise the extra performance from a full liquid is probably worth it.

      --
      The Grey Goo disaster happened 3 billion years ago. This rock is covered in self replicating machines!
    15. Re:100% by paving-slab · · Score: 1

      Question: Who cares?

      A: Nobody B: Nobody
      C: Nobody D: Grammar Nazi

      E: People who do crossword puzzles

    16. Re:100% by Shadowmist · · Score: 1

      Spaceflight was so much easier forty years ago...

      Tell that to the families of the crews of Apollo 1 and 13. or Challenger or Columbia. The Space Shuttle is particurlarly problematic because unlike an expendable capsule, it has a heat shield which is designed for repeated use and is exposed during liftoff and in space (this was the primary reason that the Service Module on Apollo 13 was not jettisoned even after it had become dead weight. Unlike an ablative heatshied the shuttle's bricks are inherently more fragile. Space flight will never obtained the ease of commercial airlines.

  3. IANARS but... by Sir_Lewk · · Score: 4, Insightful

    If I'm reading this right, the Air Force is saying that in the event of a complete failure (ie, the entire thing going to hell all of a sudden) the chances of survival would be zero.

    This doesn't really indicate that chances of survival would be zero in all possible emergency abort scenarios.

    --
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    1. Re:IANARS but... by Entropius · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Solid rocket motors, however, tend to "go to hell all of a sudden" in a rather spectacular way. "Sucks to be you" is really their only failure mode.

    2. Re:IANARS but... by 4D6963 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      It's about the rocket falling back to the ground, so that's about any event in which the rocket would crash back to the ground within the first minute of flight. Not complicated.

      --
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    3. Re:IANARS but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      I believe you're reading it right. They're not saying all possible emergency abort scenarios. Only those that occur in the first minute of flight.

      I think the reason they're being so pessimistic is that any sort of failure during such an early stage of the flight is basically going to result in the range safety officer having to send a self-destruct signal to the rocket which in turn leads to a high temperature debris cloud which in leads to a melted parachute which leads to zero survivability for the crew when the crew capsule slams into the sea.

    4. Re:IANARS but... by Tubal-Cain · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I don't get the impression that there are many other types of failures within the first minute of launch.

    5. Re:IANARS but... by bertoelcon · · Score: 1

      Solid rocket motors, however, tend to "go to hell all of a sudden" in a rather spectacular way. "Sucks to be you" is really their only failure mode.

      Why is this so funny, if it actually happens it would be a tragedy.

      Yet I can't get off the floor from the initial ROFL factor.

      --
      Anything can be found funny, from a certain point of view.
    6. Re:IANARS but... by Sir_Lewk · · Score: 1

      True enough. Also the linked articles are unclear what, if any, propulsion mechanisms the escape pod has. It seems to me like they may be relying on the explosion of the engine failure to propel them out of the explosion.

      If this is the case then I can very much see how the Air Force's report makes sense. Small chunks of burning propellent are sure to fly faster/farther then some hunk of metal.

      --
      "linux is just DOS with a UNIX like syntax" -- Galactic Dominator (944134)
    7. Re:IANARS but... by Entropius · · Score: 2, Funny

      Fortunately it seems like this is a problem that *could be corrected* fairly easily -- with, say, a propulsion mechanism on the escape capsule, just enough to give enough delta-V that it would clear the debris cloud in time to deploy the parachutes. It's even easier since you're flying through the air: perhaps you could deploy some sort of air brake or aerodynamic device to change the drag characteristics of the capsule enough to escape the cloud?

      It doesn't have to survive the heat or provide a safe landing -- all it has to do is bump you out of the debris cloud, and you're good.

    8. Re:IANARS but... by Sir_Lewk · · Score: 1

      The diagrams in the released PDF seem to indicate this is in the context of an air-burst type failure.

      A failure of the rocket which involves the rocket simply crashing back into the ground doesn't seem to be covered here (though it's somewhat doubtable if such a failure could realistically take place).

      --
      "linux is just DOS with a UNIX like syntax" -- Galactic Dominator (944134)
    9. Re:IANARS but... by cratermoon · · Score: 4, Informative

      The Range Safety Officer can't let it just crash back to the ground. The stark reality is that in the event of a guidance failure the RSO's job is to activate the destruct system. Although the lives of the astronauts might be lost, the lives of hundreds of people on the ground take precedence. And no, there isn't really going to be time to determine which way the rocket is going. In the time it would take to figure that out, Cocoa Beach could be a flaming inferno.

    10. Re:IANARS but... by Mercano · · Score: 4, Informative

      The Orion escape system is similar to the Apollo setup; that is, a rocket mounted above the crew capsule is, in the event of an emergency, supposed to yank the capsule off with enough acceleration to get clear of any explosion. Of course, there's an upper limit of how much force you can apply without killing the crew, and on a normal launch, the escape system is just dead weight, despite the fact that it's more powerful then the Atlas rocket that put Mercury capsules into orbit, so there are constraints. Obligatory Wikipedia link.

      --
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    11. Re:IANARS but... by Tablizer · · Score: 3, Funny

      It seems to me like they may be relying on the explosion of the engine failure to propel them out of the explosion.

      The Bruce Willis Rocket Design Company, eh?
           

    12. Re:IANARS but... by FleaPlus · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Fortunately it seems like this is a problem that *could be corrected* fairly easily -- with, say, a propulsion mechanism on the escape capsule, just enough to give enough delta-V that it would clear the debris cloud in time to deploy the parachutes.

      From what I understand, the Orion capsule's launch escape system already has a jettison motor, but it's not enough to take it out of range of the flaming debris. Increasing the range of the motor isn't an option, because the capsule is already too heavy for the Ares I and they can't add even more weight to it.

      Even though rockets like DIRECT's and the Ares V would have the "field of flaming solid rocket propellant debris" problem, my impression is that they have a big enough margin that you'd be able to have a launch escape system that could escape the debris cloud.

    13. Re:IANARS but... by hardburn · · Score: 0

      It did actually happen. A solid rocket failure is how Challenger went.

      --
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    14. Re:IANARS but... by Repossessed · · Score: 2, Interesting

      It's funny *because* its horrible. Your brain doesn't want to empathize so it trips the laughter switch instead.

      Thats why comedians love politics so much.

      --
      Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite (TM)
    15. Re:IANARS but... by Hadlock · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I thought the reason why they shot these things off from an island in a sparsely populated area, over the ocean, far away from major shipping channels, was in case it glitches an explodes near the ground after flight, nobody (besides the astronauts) would be near it. It's not like Orlando is a particularly large city (famous because of Disney world, yes, large... no). Detonating a giant fucking space bomb over the ocean to "save lives" seems a bit silly. It's not like they're launching it in downtown Pittsburgh with a flight path over Manhattan.

      --
      moox. for a new generation.
    16. Re:IANARS but... by wisnoskij · · Score: 1

      Well one could say every death is a tragedy but if their deaths were added to a daily total of accidental deaths and then compared to all other days it would not show any meaningful deviance from the norm.

      I am sure someone could make a case for not donating as much blood as possible in a lifetime as being more "horrible" then a rocket crash with 100% casualties as the lack of blood killed more people then the crash.
      Note: I do not know (blood donation)/(lives saved) stats but the general idea is still apt in my opinion if the object donated changes.

      --
      Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
    17. Re:IANARS but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Solid rocket motors, however, tend to "go to hell all of a sudden" in a rather spectacular way

      Not really, when you factor in the Challenger accident. No sudden explosion there - the slow leak from one of the SRBs cooked the external fuel tank and melted an SRB mounting strut, which led to flight path destabilisation and disintegration due to wind forces.

    18. Re:IANARS but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      It did actually happen. A solid rocket failure is how Challenger went.

      Nitpick: The Challenger SRBs were fine. The external tank failed.

      The SRBs leaked a bit of fire through the O-ring, and that fire meant that one of the SRBs cut itself away from the external tank - the attachment at the bottom of the tank failed, the one at the top didn't, and that was enough to plow the nose of the SRB into the tip of the external tank.

      *boom*

      The external tank tore itself apart from the aerodynamic stresses, leading to the big white plume of water vapor. The shuttle was torn apart shortly thereafter from similar aerodynamic stresses.

      Both SRBs - even the one with fire belching out of the lower O-ring - can be seen in video of the disaster as flying onwards, well away from the conflagration, relatively unscathed. They were eventually blown up by range control officers.

      The root cause of the failure cascade was indeed a problem with the SRB, things did go to hell all of a sudden in a rather spectacular way, and it certainly sucked to be them.

      But technically, the SRBs themselves didn't fail catastrophically. Anyone lucky (?) enough to have been riding along in the nose cone of the SRB along with the SRB parachutes (let's assume the presence of suitable breathing apparatus since it's probably not pressurized, the presence of sound/vibrationproofing, temperature control, and of course, a nice parachute for our intrepid stowaway) would have had pretty good odds compared to the Challenger crew... well, at least until range control blew up the SRBs.

    19. Re:IANARS but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...which led to flight path destabilisation and disintegration due to wind forces.

      That's not even close to accurate.
      The hydrogen tank ruptured and the SRB rotated through the orbiter's wing.
      Aero forces were not a predominant factor.

    20. Re:IANARS but... by Entropius · · Score: 1

      I would think that at the speeds they're going at, and at low altitude where this scenario takes place, an airbrake could apply more delta-V than a jettison motor.

      It doesn't take much of a change in aerodynamics to apply a force of 10g to a supersonic aircraft, after all.

    21. Re:IANARS but... by NormalVisual · · Score: 1

      It's not like Orlando is a particularly large city (famous because of Disney world, yes, large... no)

      The Orlando metro area has more than two million people - how big does a city have to be to qualify as "particularly large"?

      --
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    22. Re:IANARS but... by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

      It doesn't take much of a change in aerodynamics to apply a force of 10g to a supersonic aircraft, after all.

      There are two problems to this idea. 1) Parts of the debris cloud are decelerating at much greater than 10g. That's why the cloud is so big to begin with. 2) 10g of aerodynamic stress is the wrong direction will destroy the spacecraft very quickly.

    23. Re:IANARS but... by Profane+MuthaFucka · · Score: 2

      That's not even close to accurate.

      The SRB flame cut the bottom mount. The SRB rotated about the top mount until it impinged the top of the external tank. External tank ruptured from aerodynamic forces.

      --
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    24. Re:IANARS but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It would seem that a rocket could alter the trajectory of the capsule enough to get it out of the debris before any kind of parachute was deployed. Having seen a couple of solids blow, that could be a long way. That stuff moves fast and their would be no way to outrun it.

      Opening a parachute on a ballistic trajectory would be a virtual death sentence.

    25. Re:IANARS but... by im_thatoneguy · · Score: 1

      on a normal launch, the escape system is just dead weight, despite the fact that it's more powerful then the Atlas rocket that put Mercury capsules into orbit

      But for how long? (Not very long.)

      A relatively small bomb is more powerful than the Atlas rocket.
      A relatively small rocket could put an object in orbit with sufficient fuel.

    26. Re:IANARS but... by MurphyZero · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I am a rocket scientist. The Orion does have an escape motor. And outside of the range specified in the briefing it gets it safely away from the SRB propellant. The problem is due to it being a solid propellant booster, when you decide to get out of Dodge, you only have three choices: Blow up the SRB at the same time, blow it up shortly after the escape motor lights, or don't blow it up at all. For public safety and some other reasons, #3 is not acceptable. #1 is not acceptable because now you're always going to have flaming debris around the capsule. So #2 is the solution with the detail being how long of a delay. NASA's simulation have determined the most optimal time delay, for their purposes. The Air Force has agreed with that value. But that delay is the time the SRB keeps following the capsule. And it's still accelerating. And it's accelerating faster because it no longer has to push the capsule. This is a problem that can occur with ANY solid propellant choice, so the Direct crowd and NASA's shuttle alternative may also have this potential problem. Only a purely liquid propellant vehicle that could be shutdown immediately on activating of the escape motor could avoid this problem.

      From the Air Force's point of view, this would not affect Ares' launch as long as the flight termination system works--Air Force is responsible for public safety, not the astronauts, that's NASA responsibility. Air Force sent their analysis to NASA, NASA (someone at NASA) made it public.

      --
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    27. Re:IANARS but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      The article is quite clear about the problem: solid rockets spew extremely hot debris, and during the 30-60 second interval using the escape system means the capsule is descending through incandescent debris all the way down to the ground. The debris will melt or burn the nylon parachutes, so the capsule reaches the ground or water at unsurvivable speed. The escape system is assumed to work perfectly; it's those SRBs recycled from the shuttle design that cause the trouble.

    28. Re:IANARS but... by MurphyZero · · Score: 2, Interesting

      At the time mentioned in the briefing, the vehicle is barely over the ocean, and a slight turn back towards the launch site could put it into the local community, Orlando is unlikely, but the county is a half-million people or so.

      --
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    29. Re:IANARS but... by Repossessed · · Score: 0, Flamebait

      I'm sure a lot more people die in the US country from insurance rejecting their claim than from the hospital not having enough blood.

      --
      Liberte, Egalite, Fraternite (TM)
    30. Re:IANARS but... by ultranova · · Score: 1

      A relatively small rocket could put an object in orbit with sufficient fuel.

      Except that it couldn't, because it would need to carry the fuel with it, and a small rocket couldn't lift much fuel from the ground, for some values of small and much.

      That's why rockets are the size of skyscrapers, and why chemical ones will never be economical.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    31. Re:IANARS but... by TheTurtlesMoves · · Score: 1

      Its worse than that. Since you can't turn or throttle a solid, even if its not going *that* wrong, the range safety officer is required to detonate... A emergency situation can't even have a throttle down, 1 sec later detonate or other such things that you can do with a liquid fueled rocket.

      But I have another question. What is the emergency escape module on a 747? Seems to me that the problem is we are just so certain its not going to work and two squeamish to take the risk anyway.

      --
      The Grey Goo disaster happened 3 billion years ago. This rock is covered in self replicating machines!
    32. Re:IANARS but... by ohmiccurmudgeon · · Score: 3, Informative

      It doesn't matter how the Challenger actually failed. The shuttle has no survivable launch abort scenarios.

      Challenger carried an Inertial Upper Stage booster in an active cradle. NASA provided several launch abort scenarios to contractors and required the contractors to analyze the active cradle's behavior in the abort scenarios to demonstrate that the active cradle would not make a bad situation worse. The Rogers Commission found all of the NASA abort scenarios, such as early separation of the boosters, or an abort to Spain, or once-around abort, would not actually work, and would result in the loss of the vehicle.

      Whether you think NASA conspired to cover-up the lack of survivable abort modes, or they just incompetently succumbed to wishful thinking, they will have no creditability until they actually do an expensive full-up test of a launch abort to demonstrate the safety system work. If the escape systems don't work, then NASA needs to re-design the rocket until it does.

    33. Re:IANARS but... by Ihlosi · · Score: 2, Interesting
      What is the emergency escape module on a 747?

      In most failure modes of a 747, an escape module would be useless, i.e. either it's safer to stay in the plane and try to land it anyway, or things go to hell so suddenly that there's no chance to activate such a module.

      Also, a 747 doesn't carry fuel and oxidizer. It can catch fire, but not nearly as spectacularly as a rocket.

    34. Re:IANARS but... by jo_ham · · Score: 2, Insightful

      [quote]But technically, the SRBs themselves didn't fail catastrophically[/quote]

      I would argue that they did just that. The O-ring disintegrated when the SRB was lit, allowing the exhaust to escape from the seal and burn through the support. The fact that the gap was plugged by slag made up of solid rocket propellant was just "lucky" (until it was broken away by wind shear later).

      If the slag hadn't plugged the hole the SRB itself would have failed pretty spectacularly on the pad.

      Yes, the literal explosion of the vehicle was due to the main fuel tank being broken open, but it was caused by a catastrophic failure of the O-rings in the SRB, due to being lit when practically frozen solid (a condition that the manufacturer advised would be fatal, but were overruled my management).

      At no point can you possibly claim that the starboard SRB functioned satisfactorily on that mission - it failed, catastrophically, even though it didn't explode.

    35. Re:IANARS but... by Plazmid · · Score: 1

      Why not make the parachute out of carbon fiber or something that doesn't melt at those temperatures?

    36. Re:IANARS but... by nmg196 · · Score: 1

      Well as it's solid fuel, can't they have an alternative emergency nozzle somewhere near the top of the SRB, that could be ignited for the purpose of simply throwing the SRB off-course for a few seconds while the capsule has a chance to get a few hundred meters away? Even a couple of percent thrust at the top of the SRB at 90 degrees to the direction of motion would throw it miles off course after only a few seconds - then when you detect it's turned at least 50 degrees or so on the gyros, you just blow it up. Simples :)

    37. Re:IANARS but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It wouldn't have to be flame proof. Just make it 200% the size it needs, and make it out a flame resistant material. That way debris can just melt it's way through, and as long as 50% or so of the chute remains, the astronauts should impact the ground at a relatively slow speed.

      Surely an "extra large" chute would way far less than an extra escape motor or air-braking system.

      Alternatively, they could just use 2 chutes, as the trajectory of launch is far from 90 degrees vertical. Pop the first (sacrificial) chute, which decelerates the capsule fairly rapidly, and should fairly rapidly increase the distance between the capsule and motor.

    38. Re:IANARS but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      T-H-A-N

    39. Re:IANARS but... by smallfries · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Actually it does matter how the Challenger failed. It matters because the issue being discussed is whether or not sitting a crew on top of a SSB passes the safety standard that NASA is using. The GGP claimed the Challenger disaster was due to a SSB failure, and the GP corrected him.

      If you read the GP again you'll see that he is pointing out that while SSBs have terrible failure modes, the probability of reaching those modes is lower. In any risk analysis it is important to quantify the probability of a complete failure, as well as the impact.

      Give than an SSB is essentially a giant firework, which once lit the only thing to do is either a) retreat to a safe distance (ground staff) or b) pray (crew), it is saying something that the overall safety could be higher than the shuttle. But the shuttle takes the same dangerous SSBs and adds millions of complex parts with non-zero probabilities of failure.

      While you have a point about redesigning the rocket until the escape system does work, and for a commercial transport system this would be essential, you seem to be missing something vital. Launch vehicles like this are at the limit of our current technology and engineering skills. We may have to settle for making them work at all, rather than extra niceties such as safety. Given the huge amounts of energy required to reach space, and that currently the only options that we have are detonating vast quantities of explosives slowly... there is a limit to how safe we can make this.

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    40. Re:IANARS but... by TheTurtlesMoves · · Score: 2, Insightful

      In most failure modes of a 747, an escape module would be useless

      No more useless than on a rocket capable of orbital velocity. In fact your arguments have come up many times before on space programs that seem to "need" theses features.

      Since loss of life in a 747 is acceptable given the frequency of accidents (And i think it is), then that is clearly they way we should do it for space. Get the dam rocket reliable enough that you don't need a escape system that probably won't work anyway. Or even worse, it adds extra failure modes and makes the whole thing even less safe.

      --
      The Grey Goo disaster happened 3 billion years ago. This rock is covered in self replicating machines!
    41. Re:IANARS but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Difference is Apollo didn't use SRBs.

    42. Re:IANARS but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How is this situation different than, say an existing shuttle solid rocket booster?

    43. Re:IANARS but... by arb+phd+slp · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I'm sure a lot more people die in the US country from insurance rejecting their claim than from the hospital not having enough blood.

      My sister-in-law works in blood donations at the Red Cross. Typically, they keep a 10-day supply in the Northeast (meaning the inventory would be depleted in 10 days if donations stopped altogether). Right now, they have a 20-day inventory because money is tight with the recession and blood is expensive so the bean-counters at the hospitals and insurance have been encouraging the providers to cut back on the number of transfusions.

      But it sure would suck to have government bureaucrats making healthcare decisions.

      --
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    44. Re:IANARS but... by arb+phd+slp · · Score: 1

      It seems to me like they may be relying on the explosion of the engine failure to propel them out of the explosion.

      The Bruce Willis Rocket Design Company, eh?

         

      Eject the Warp Core. When it explodes, that will propel us forward!

      --
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    45. Re:IANARS but... by dissy · · Score: 1

      I thought the reason why they shot these things off from an island in a sparsely populated area, over the ocean, far away from major shipping channels, was in case it glitches an explodes near the ground after flight, nobody (besides the astronauts) would be near it. It's not like Orlando is a particularly large city (famous because of Disney world, yes, large... no).

      Only partially. The main reason is because to get something into an equatorial orbit, it is by far easier to do so by launching it from the equator. Now, assuming a US organization such as NASA, with huge political ties to the US, would want to launch from US soil... that leaves basically Florida and Texas.

      Between the two of those choices, Florida was indeed chosen as launching East (which they also need to do) will place the potential failure over the ocean instead of over land. At least after a certain amount of flight time.
      But this choice only makes sense when you realize that before this part mattered at all, they only had two options to pick from.

      Besides, if a city has more than roughly 10 people in it, it is already worth blowing up the rocket with 10 fairly easily and many times over. If anything over 10 is considered enough, then 200,000 times larger than 'enough' would qualify as 'large' in my book.

    46. Re:IANARS but... by drinkypoo · · Score: 3, Insightful

      At no point can you possibly claim that the starboard SRB functioned satisfactorily on that mission

      But, you did! To wit:

      the literal explosion of the vehicle was due to the main fuel tank being broken open, but it was caused by a catastrophic failure of the O-rings in the SRB, due to being lit when practically frozen solid (a condition that the manufacturer advised would be fatal, but were overruled my management).

      The manufacturer informed them that using the booster under those conditions would be fatal. They use it. It was fatal. Sounds to me like the booster operated to expectations, at least from your comment. I mean, I know myself that if I was told by the manufacturer of something potentially very dangerous (let's say, a propane tank) that doing something to it would probably kill me, I would expect that if I killed me that I would be liable for my death, at least if it was something unusual. Operating the booster out of spec is unusual. Sounds like manslaughter to me, willful criminal negligence leading to the deaths of seven humans, more ammunition for the stay-at-homers, and a big fucking waste of money to boot.

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    47. Re:IANARS but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sounds like they need some sort of pressure relief vent on the sides of the SRB that can be activated to reduce lift. Or a rocket nozzle that can be "explosively reconfigured" to also reduce lift.

    48. Re:IANARS but... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Cocoa Beach could be a flaming inferno.

      Beach Barbeque time.

    49. Re:IANARS but... by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

      How many flights (and years) did it take to make airplanes reliable? I agree with your statements but where state of the art is with rockets is probably the equivalent of 1920s in airplanes--they work most of the time but a problem, especially a fatal one, is not unexpected. Because we launch (and test) so very few rockets, I expect at least 20 years before we get significant reliability upgrades. And statistically, longer than that before we 'prove' that increased reliability.

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    50. Re:IANARS but... by NeoThermic · · Score: 1

      It doesn't matter how the Challenger actually failed. The shuttle has no survivable launch abort scenarios.

      This is incorrect. While an RTLS, TAL and an AOA have never been performed, an ATO has. Of which, depending on the severity of the abort condition, a TAL or AOA is perfectly survivable. An RTLS is the only one which is a major risk. RTLS aborts are flown in simulations (all abort modes are), so in simulated returns they are possible, and mathematically they are, but the real question would be if the chips were down could you fly an RTLS.

      Don't forget, you don't need to *land* the shuttle in an RTLS to survive, there is still the option to use the ICES if the shuttle is unable to land but is able to keep a sufficient profile after a successful tank drop in an RTLS. You can use the ICES at 25,000 feet as long as you can bring the shuttle back to 200 knots.

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    51. Re:IANARS but... by TheTurtlesMoves · · Score: 1

      This is why i am in favour of a "man rated" but not "man needed" system that can get some flights under its belt and be useful before getting people in it.

      But really we need to be a little less squeamish about it. Almost 3000 people die every month in car accidents in the US, and no one but the victims families gives a toss. Why should a few astronauts bring a space program to a halt for 2 years?

      --
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    52. Re:IANARS but... by Zancarius · · Score: 1

      Detonating a giant fucking space bomb over the ocean to "save lives" seems a bit silly. It's not like they're launching it in downtown Pittsburgh with a flight path over Manhattan.

      Depending on how the rocket has failed, it isn't guaranteed to be flying over the ocean. It could very well be flying out of control heading west.

      --
      He who has no .plan has small finger. ~ Confucius on UNIX
    53. Re:IANARS but... by solafide · · Score: 1

      Oooh, this is an awesome idea, let's spin a rocket end-over-end near the capsule! That way it can fly apart from centripetal force *and* shoot rocket debris in a giant cloud!

    54. Re:IANARS but... by E++99 · · Score: 1

      I am a rocket scientist. The Orion does have an escape motor.

      Is it just me, or do other non-rocket-scientists find it bizarre to use the term "motor" for something that doesn't spin? When rocket scientists shoot off bottle rockets, do they say, "light the motor"? When they're at the target range and they have a bad round that won't fire, do they say, "I guess that one has a bad motor"? I know etymologically a motor should be able to be anything that imparts motion, but it seems odd to apply it to, say, a bow that imparts motion to an arrow by bending.

      I think part of the problem is the letter "r", which gives it a feeling of roundness or rotation, like a rotor. It only exists in the english word because of the particular declination of the latin it was taken from ("movere"). In the latin, unlike the english, the "r" is only part of the suffix (which make it the present active infinitive), so it doesn't have implication for the root meaning.

      Only a purely liquid propellant vehicle that could be shutdown immediately on activating of the escape motor could avoid this problem.

      Why can't the direction of of main rocket be changed quickly enough -- such as by a tiny emergency redirection rocket near the top -- so that the main rocket, while still accelerating, will be accelerating in a different direction than the escape motor?

    55. Re:IANARS but... by Valdrax · · Score: 2, Funny

      Actually, I was thinking that now I finally understand why they decided to reuse the name Orion for this rocket concept.

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    56. Re:IANARS but... by DragonHawk · · Score: 1

      "Well as it's solid fuel, can't they have an alternative emergency nozzle somewhere near the top of the SRB, that could be ignited for the purpose of simply throwing the SRB off-course for a few seconds while the capsule has a chance to get a few hundred meters away?"

      Putting that much lateral stress on the vehicle so suddenly would prolly cause a break-up. Most people don't appreciate just how fragile rockets are. They run the ragged edge of technology. Weight is everything on a lift vehicle, so they're always looking for ways to make it lighter. So they have enough structure to withstand nominal forces -- nothing more.

      That said, there is something called a "thrust equalizer" or "thrust vent" that's similar to what you describe. Many solid rockets (including the shuttle SRBs) have a hollow shaft down the center of the entire length -- the whole thing burns at once. You get more thrust that way. If you open the top end, then the propellant will vent equally from top and bottom, yielding zero net impulse. I don't know if the shuttle SRBs have this (if they do, "thermal curtain failure" won't help Max after all). I doubt the Ares does, given that the crew is sitting on top of the solid rocket stack.

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    57. Re:IANARS but... by im_thatoneguy · · Score: 1

      I'm speaking in hypotheticals.

      IF you had say an anti-matter motor which only accelerated the launch vehicle at .5m/s but could be burned long enough to get into orbit your small rocket would be sufficient.

    58. Re:IANARS but... by DragonHawk · · Score: 1

      Since you can't turn or throttle a solid ...

      You can turn a solid. The nozzles on the shuttle SRBs are vectored, for example.

      You can't adjust the throttle pattern after manufacturing, but a solid rocket's design can control their rate of burn. They vary the shape and size of the combustion channel.

      You can neutralize a solid rocket with trust venting. I explained that elsewhere in this story.

      ... even if its not going *that* wrong, the range safety officer is required to detonate...

      The RSO for STS-51-L (Challenger's last) didn't detonate until well after the launch vehicle had exploded. Reported, he detonated because it looked like the remains of the SRBs might have been turning towards land, and it was also clear that the vehicle was a total loss. That seems to suggest the RSO has more latitude than you state.

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    59. Re:IANARS but... by Tweenk · · Score: 1

      detonating vast quantities of explosives slowly

      Nitpick: detonation is not something you can slow down. Detonation happens when the explosion shockwave travels faster than sound in the detonated material. Rocket fuel cannot detonate (otherwise it could not be used as rocket fuel). It can only burn out of control.

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    60. Re:IANARS but... by Glendale2x · · Score: 1

      An RTLS is the only one which is a major risk.

      It's also the only abort mode that sounds like it would be one hell of a ride.

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    61. Re:IANARS but... by TheTurtlesMoves · · Score: 1

      By turn, I meant, turn off.

      --
      The Grey Goo disaster happened 3 billion years ago. This rock is covered in self replicating machines!
    62. Re:IANARS but... by ohmiccurmudgeon · · Score: 1

      You've been drinking the NASA Kool-aid? NASA habitually has its astronauts train in impossible scenarios for PR purposes.

      RTLS, return to launch site, requires separation from the main tank and SRBs. Despite NASA's design changes most of us old rocket scientists think that will detonate the tank. Separating from the SRBs requires a hard pitch down to avoid the SRB plumes, which in real life the shuttle does not have enough aerodynamic command to achieve. Simulation or not, RTLS is bogus and NASA knows it.

      Also, the shuttle does not have enough cross-range capability to achieve a Transatlantic landing at any facility capable of handling it. An attempt at TAL will result in a water landing with loss of vehicle and crew. TAL is bogus and NASA knows it.

      Abort Once Around suffers from Earth rotation and the lack of sufficient cross-range capability. All viable landing sites are just not available on a once-around. It would be interesting to see what would happen if an astronaut pilot did manage to land a fully laden shuttle at Mexico City, hot from re-entry and leaking hydrazine.

      Abort to orbit really isn't an abort mode.

      Now, about the Crew Escape System (CES), which are "tractor" rockets that pull the crewmen out one at a time. The shuttle reaches 25,000 feet in under a minute. At 35,000 feet its breaking the speed of sound. It seems the only way the CES will work is if you shut the main engines down. Now, ride the solids until you can separate, and then glide down until the crew can escape. Maybe that is how the TAL and AOA are supposed to work, but I still don't like the idea of being dragged behind a hot CES rocket plume wearing nothing but a space suit after waiting in line for the privilege.

      Given our jet fighters now have ejection seats that can rescue a pilot flying upside down near the ground, CES seems like a real Rube Goldberg device. Back in the the 1960's, the F-111's entire crew compartment ejected.

      Given our current state of technology, there is no need for intrinsically unsafe designs such as the shuttle or Aries rocket. I think I'll wait until I can buy a ticket on a rocket plane for my ride to orbit.

    63. Re:IANARS but... by multi+io · · Score: 1

      RTLS, return to launch site, requires separation from the main tank and SRBs. Despite NASA's design changes most of us old rocket scientists think that will detonate the tank. Separating from the SRBs requires a hard pitch down to avoid the SRB plumes

      I think RTLS, like all the other abort modes, becomes available only after the SRBs have burned out.

    64. Re:IANARS but... by multi+io · · Score: 1

      So, if the Ares I booster fails in a similar way to how the Challenger SRB failed, at a similar altitude -- could the LES work? There was no big explosion (i.e. no cloud of flaming propellant particles), you'd only notice a significant loss of pressure and thrust (and probably thrust vector) as a result of the O-ring leak. Would the LES provide enough thrust to accelerate the capsule away from the booster?

    65. Re:IANARS but... by ConceptJunkie · · Score: 1

      I was in college at the time and was taking a drawing class. I'd stopped by the art/office supply store on the way to class and the TV was showing the aftermath of the accident. I continued on to class and upon reporting what I had seen, it was about 5 minutes before the jokes started coming. It's a coping mechanism. I don't think people were really that callous.

      On the other hand, if it had been a computer science or engineering class, the jokes might have come much sooner.

      --
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    66. Re:IANARS but... by Elbowgeek · · Score: 1

      Krikey, if the great explorers of yore had nitpicked their respective missions to death like this we'd all still be living in caves in Africa. The men and women who get in these spaceships know the danger they're in and have the guts (the "right stuff") to see the mission through.

      Sheesh!

      --
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    67. Re:IANARS but... by Painted · · Score: 1

      ... If you open the top end, then the propellant will vent equally from top and bottom, yielding zero net impulse. I don't know if the shuttle SRBs have this (if they do, "thermal curtain failure" won't help Max after all). I doubt the Ares does, given that the crew is sitting on top of the solid rocket stack.

      In fact the SRB's on the shuttle have exactly this feature, and were used in the Challenger disaster when the SRB's appeared to be heading towards land. I would expect that the Ares stack does in fact have this feature, to be used after a successful abort (ie, the Orion gets outta dodge, the SRB doesn't explode, so you blow the range safety. Probably be pretty hard on the intertank and 2nd stage, but hey, that's the price you pay.

      --
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    68. Re:IANARS but... by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

      Exactly. Similar for the early airplanes. Lot of folks died, but there were plenty still willing to fly. There's a similar load of astronauts willing to fly even with problems. They should still try to fix problems, but the goal shouldn't necessarily be the most reliable rocket that can be built. There's an optimization level there in the faster, better, cheaper triangle. You overload on better and cheaper and faster go right out the window. There's also something to be said about test flights. Especially the flight version, not a downgraded version like the Ares I-X.

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    69. Re:IANARS but... by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

      The LES at that time in flight should work as designed and get it away from the propellant. The time is outside of the range specified in the Air Force briefing. Plus there's much less propellant so the danger should be less even if the results are different than estimated.

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    70. Re:IANARS but... by NeoThermic · · Score: 1

      I'm not sure where to start picking the holes. I guess from the top:

      RTLS, return to launch site, requires separation from the main tank and SRBs. Despite NASA's design changes most of us old rocket scientists think that will detonate the tank. Separating from the SRBs requires a hard pitch down to avoid the SRB plumes, which in real life the shuttle does not have enough aerodynamic command to achieve.

      Considering that there are NO abort modes that happen before SRB separation, you're talking shit there. An RTLS, the earliest abort you can do after the SRBs have been ignited, can only be called after 123 seconds (When SRB separation happens) and before 150s after launch, or a call window of only 27 seconds.

      Also, the shuttle does not have enough cross-range capability to achieve a Transatlantic landing at any facility capable of handling it. An attempt at TAL will result in a water landing with loss of vehicle and crew. TAL is bogus and NASA knows it.

      Uhh, what? Considering the earliest time you can call an TAL the shuttle is 400,000 ft up and 400 NM away from Florida, a ballistic trajectory gives the shuttle more than enough cross-range capability to land at the requested location (for ISS launches that's basically always ZZA).

      Abort Once Around suffers from Earth rotation and the lack of sufficient cross-range capability. All viable landing sites are just not available on a once-around.

      Again, what? An AOA means the shuttle enters a low orbit that is not stable with the express means of doing two OMS burns giving it the re-entry profile of a normal end of mission re-entry. An AOA can only be called after a TAL can't be done but before an ATO is called. This is a window of just a few seconds, so the chance of needing to do an AOA is slim even if things are going wrong. Since an AOA is still technically an orbit, the cross-range capabilities of the shuttle are that of anything orbiting the earth; anything is reachable within 90 minutes.

      Now, about the Crew Escape System (CES), which are "tractor" rockets that pull the crewmen out one at a time. The shuttle reaches 25,000 feet in under a minute. At 35,000 feet its breaking the speed of sound. It seems the only way the CES will work is if you shut the main engines down.

      This just highlights how clueless you are about shuttle abort modes and procedures. The CES would only be used if you could not land the orbiter, but after you had either pulled an RTLS, TAL or AOA. You could never exit the shuttle during launch, so I'm not even sure what you're thinking about shutting the main engines down. An RTLS, TAL and AOA have a flight profile that allows the CES to be used if required.

      Back in the the 1960's, the F-111's entire crew compartment ejected.

      The F-111 seated two. Next to each other. The shuttle seats six or seven on a normal mission, and only four are anywhere near each other. The other seats are in the mid-deck, with a substantial amount of shuttle around them. An ejector system like the F-111 would be impractical due to weight, be unusable at launch and only usable after a successful re-entry. Thus of the two shuttle accidents that have happened, such a system couldn't have been used. For either

      NeoThermic

      P.S. Mexico City isn't a landing site and never has been.

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    71. Re:IANARS but... by ohmiccurmudgeon · · Score: 1

      In 1980 I was assigned the task of analyzing the behavior of the IUS active cradle in the space shuttle during aborts. At the time the RTLS mode required separation from the main tank and early separation from the SRBs. Note that the IUS cradle functioned as designed during the Challenger disaster.

      I'm perfectly aware of the current definitions of the abort modes:

      http://www.space-shuttle.com/abortmain.htm

      Even a cursory engineering analysis shows those abort modes to be bogus. Given the SRBs have burned out around 150,000 feet with the shuttle only going 3000 MPH at that time, and presumably it is aborting because of a problem with the main engines, just where are you going to get the ballistic energy to get to Africa or Spain?
      The point is that everything else must be going right if you must abort during launch, otherwise you will loose the craft and most likely the crew.
      As for cross-range capability, you have cited no numbers. You failed to note that landing sites such as Zaragoza (ZAZ) or Morocco are available only for high inclination launches, i.e., a certain range of launch azimuths. The ISS at 51 degrees orbit is not a high inclination orbit. Gliding is not an option with the shuttle. At hypersonic speeds the glide ration of the shuttle is 1:1, and increases to 2:1 at supersonic, and finally 4.5:1 at subsonic speeds. 3000 MPH gives you a ballistic range of 50 miles. That leaves a long way to Spain or Gambia.

      If you had actually had a clue yourself you would have actually read my post and realized that I wasn't suggesting Mexico City was a landing site. In fact the point is the shuttle can only land at specially prepared sites capable of handling a hot vehicle spewing hazardous materials.

      As for the F-111 analogy, again you missed the point. So what if the F-111 only seated 2? Think about an alternate shuttle design in which the entire crew cabin separates, which in fact happened in the Challenger disaster, but had no means to slow down or recover. You've made unwarranted assumptions about weight, and in fact have accepted NASA's assertions without question. For some reason, NASA was able to design the Orion rocket with the ability to lift the entire cabin free and recover the cabin safely, but was unable to do it with the shuttle. The point is that the shuttle is fundamentally design flawed.

      It doesn't matter how slow the shuttle the travelling or at what altitude the shuttle is at in respect to the CES. The astronauts are still behind a tractor rocket and still exit one at a time.

      I don't appreciate words such as "bullshit" in posts, especially when the post'er has not done their homework.

  4. sign of the times... by gandhi_2 · · Score: 2, Funny

    ~100%?
    The Old NASA wouldn't settle for anything less than =100%!

  5. Re:Badass by Philip+K+Dickhead · · Score: 4, Funny

    They have a burning commitment to the program.

    As in, "the Chef is concerned, but the Chicken is committed." :-)

    --
    "Speaking the Truth in times of universal deceit is a revolutionary act." -- George Orwell
  6. Re:Badass by Joe+The+Dragon · · Score: 1

    or the video just cuts off and looks like rain fade.

  7. 100%? by Tubal-Cain · · Score: 1

    Well, there's a nail in Ares' coffin, so to speak.

    1. Re:100%? by Sir_Lewk · · Score: 4, Informative

      To be fair, the survival rate of exploding space shuttles is currently 0% as well... At least the Ares as a mechanism to even allow for an early abort.

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    2. Re:100%? by moosesocks · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The survival rate for exploding Soyuz rockets is 100%. It happened once in 1975, and again in 1983. Both times, the crew escaped without major injury. The Russian/Soviet space program has never had a launch failure that resulted in fatalities to crew aboard the ship.

      The 1983 incident occurred as the rocket exploded while on the pad, and threw the capsule 6,500 feet into the air, subjecting the cosmonauts to approximately 17g of acceleration. According to popular legend, the cosmonauts destroyed the capsule's voice recorder due to the lengthy string of profanity that it captured during the incident.

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    3. Re:100%? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      That's the emperical rate then .. these other guys are talking about the theoretical rate.

    4. Re:100%? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You really trust the SOVIET GOVERNMENT to report accurately?

    5. Re:100%? by dbIII · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Oddly enough that regime was so fond of paperwork that there were weird documents along the lines of "order to destroy all records of the mass graves at lat X long Y containing Z bodies from the incident on DATE" with all the correct numbers filled in. People were so careful to cover their arses that everything was written down (even attempts to duplicate things that had been ordered destroyed) and is now a goldmine for historians. However there is still the garbage in garbage out problem if the information was wrong in the first place.

    6. Re:100%? by FleaPlus · · Score: 5, Informative

      To be fair, the survival rate of exploding space shuttles is currently 0% as well... At least the Ares as a mechanism to even allow for an early abort.

      Allow me to present a little bit more context. Back in 2004, NASA received several competing designs for lunar launch architectures, most/all of which involved using liquid-fueled EELV rockets. In 2005 the (now former) administrator Michael Griffin came in, tossed out all the EELV-based designs, and focused the agency on implementing his own solid-rocket design which eventually became the Ares I. A big part of the justification is that the EELV-based designs would have "black zones" during which a rocket failure would be non-survivable, while the Ares I supposedly had no such black zones and was therefore the only legitimate solution. Ironically, since that time the EELVs have been shown to have no such 'black zones," while this latest report indicates that the Ares I has a huge black zone which covers the entire first minute of flight. That means that what was thought to be the main justification for the Ares I is actually a huge deficiency.

      Curiously, the other main justifications for the Ares I were that it would be finished faster and cost less than EELV-based designs. As it turned out, it's taking far longer than the EELVs were expected to take, and the cost has ballooned by almost an order of magnitude. With any luck Barack Obama will take the upcoming report from the Augustine Commission and end the Ares I program before it does any more damage.

    7. Re:100%? by ceoyoyo · · Score: 3, Funny

      Only Russians could swear while undergoing 17 g acceleration.

    8. Re:100%? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

      The Russian/Soviet space program has never had a launch failure that resulted in fatalities to crew aboard the ship.

      True. Of course, there was the small matter of the 120 or so people incinerated in the Nedelin disaster, but they were on the ground.

    9. Re:100%? by rcw-home · · Score: 3, Informative

      The Russian/Soviet space program has never had a launch failure that resulted in fatalities to crew aboard the ship.

      Without that last qualification things get a little hairier.

    10. Re:100%? by VlartBlart · · Score: 1

      Your post got me googling and I found this interesting (I thought) article about the Soyuz escape system...

      http://www.russianspaceweb.com/soyuz_sas.html

    11. Re:100%? by rekees · · Score: 1

      The survival rate for exploding Soyuz rockets is 100%. It happened once in 1975, and again in 1983. Both times, the crew escaped without major injury. The Russian/Soviet space program has never had a launch failure that resulted in fatalities to crew aboard the ship.

      The 1983 incident occurred as the rocket exploded while on the pad, and threw the capsule 6,500 feet into the air, subjecting the cosmonauts to approximately 17g of acceleration. According to popular legend, the cosmonauts destroyed the capsule's voice recorder due to the lengthy string of profanity that it captured during the incident.

      And you know this how? Hollywood drama? Any clue how the USSR news were written, read fabricated?

    12. Re:100%? by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      There were also several refueling disasters on the ground, apparently, plus two losses of all hands during reentry (one failed parachute, one depressurization). So yeah, there are quite a few qualifications in that sentence that are pretty critical. It's like saying that no one has ever died in the cab of a combine on an Interstate highway while traveling above 90 MPH.

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    13. Re:100%? by tcolberg · · Score: 4, Funny

      You mean a Bush appointee came in and went ahead with a plan of action based on a false set of data and discarded all alternatives due to some theoretical, but now disproven, threat to American lives? You don't say...

    14. Re:100%? by moosesocks · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The rocket that exploded to cause the Nedelin disaster was an ICBM -- strictly speaking, not even part of the space program.

      Additionally, the Russian space program had notable problems with re-entry, safety on the ground, automated docking, off-target landings, or the fact that they couldn't get the N-1 to work at all.

      However, we're not talking about any of these things. Russia's launch abort system has proven itself to be successful, and has saved lives in two separate incidents. Although NASA has certainly done a better job of other aspects of its program, its launch abort system has never been used in practice and is conspicuously absent from the shuttle, which is the entire point of this conversation.

      Odds are that both uses of the Russian launch abort system could have been avoided by correcting deficiencies present elsewhere in their space program. However, it's certainly nice to have redundancies present in the system. Shuttle missions have to be conducted with outright paranoia due to some of its design deficiencies.

      --
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    15. Re:100%? by timeOday · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Curiously, the other main justifications for the Ares I were that it would be finished faster and cost less than EELV-based designs. As it turned out, it's taking far longer than the EELVs were expected to take, and the cost has ballooned by almost an order of magnitude.

      Oh please, you can't compare the missed milestones of one program against another program that never missed a milestone because it never started. As for the safety argument, IMHO it's so hypothetical I don't even care. I still don't think anybody knows how safe the shuttle now is, or isn't.

      However, if costs on a program have actually exceeded plans by a factor of 10, I think you have a good argument for developing both in parallel in a big programmatic deathmatch.

    16. Re:100%? by Profane+MuthaFucka · · Score: 2

      Why should records which have been verified to be true through comparison with many internal and external independent sources NOT be trusted?

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    17. Re:100%? by moosesocks · · Score: 1

      Yes, but we're talking about the viability of the launch abort system, not the overall safety of the program.

      Also, for the sake of pedantry, the first "all hands lost" incident took place on a vehicle with only one crew member on board.

      Every single fatal spaceflight incident thus far (excluding those on the ground, but including Apollo 1) has had no survivors. Failures tend to be catastrophic.

      --
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    18. Re:100%? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      yes and that mechanism might as well be a shiny button that is connected to nothing but a pretty flashing light. that is the point, the abort system is useless. if it won't save the crew anyway why waste the time and money building a useless abort system?
      i bet nasa thinks that the parachutes are invincible because they are made of rip-stop nylon. you know, just like when they thought that a piece of foam couldn't punch a hole in a carbon composite wing and cause a shuttle to burn up on re-entry, or when they thought a rubber o-ring that got too cold couldn't cause a solid rocket booster to explode, or that a 100% oxygen environment is highly combustible and could turn an entire apollo crew into crispy fritters.
      challenger, columbia and apollo 1 were all destroyed because some genius engineer didn't understand simple high school level science, and was too proud to listen to anyone pointing out the obvious flaws.
      don't worry a few billion dollars and several lives down the road they will listen to the air force and then decide they need to design another launch system to replace ares that will have a safe abort system but will have some other easily prevented flaw.

    19. Re:100%? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      i would too, you know, if i were still conscious after the first 9g

    20. Re:100%? by MurphyZero · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The examples you provide are an on pad failure, and a second stage failure. Both of which are outside the time period of danger mentioned by the Air Force. The NASA system would probably succeed near 100% in those instances as well. With the Soyuz being liquid, the problems with the NASA system (inability to shutdown the rocket without spreading burning propellant) would not be present.

      --
      Our founding fathers removed the guys in charge. Be American. Vote incumbents out.
    21. Re:100%? by FleaPlus · · Score: 3, Informative

      Oh please, you can't compare the missed milestones of one program against another program that never missed a milestone because it never started.

      Actually, since the other designs used already-existing EELV rockets, there were essentially quite a few milestones already finished.

      As for the safety argument, IMHO it's so hypothetical I don't even care. I still don't think anybody knows how safe the shuttle now is, or isn't.

      Yeah... it's also kind of interesting how the supposedly safer "man-rated" systems seem to have a pretty similar failure rate to the non-man-rated launch vehicles. IMHO, the only way you can really get a good idea of the safety of a system is through repeated unmanned testing, which coincidentally the EELVs have quite a few flights worth of already.

      However, if costs on a program have actually exceeded plans by a factor of 10, I think you have a good argument for developing both in parallel in a big programmatic deathmatch.

      Coincidentally, this was pretty much what the original plan was back in 2004: The top two design proposal teams (one headed by Lockheed Martin, the other headed by Northrop Grumman and Boeing) would receive initial funding of $1 billion and compete against each other in an unmanned "fly-off" test of their EELV-based in 2008. Former administrator Michael Griffin was convinced his design was safer/better/faster though, so he tossed out the existing designs (and the whole idea of competitive parallel development) and focused NASA on his Ares I.

    22. Re:100%? by unfunk · · Score: 1
      from that article;

      The findings are inconclusive. The impact of the crew compartment with the ocean surface was so violent that evidence of damage occurring in the seconds which followed the disintegration was masked. Our final conclusions are:

      • the cause of death of the Challenger astronauts cannot be positively determined;
      • the forces to which the crew were exposed during Orbiter breakup were probably not sufficient to cause death or serious injury; and
      • the crew possibly, but not certainly, lost consciousness in the seconds following Orbiter breakup due to in-flight loss of crew module pressure
    23. Re:100%? by instagib · · Score: 1

      In Soviet Russia, rockets explode YOU!

    24. Re:100%? by johannesg · · Score: 2, Informative

      The Russian/Soviet space program has never had a launch failure that resulted in fatalities to crew aboard the ship.

      True. Of course, there was the small matter of the 120 or so people incinerated in the Nedelin disaster, but they were on the ground.

      When I visited the Kennedy Space Center a couple of years ago, they explained that NASA was extremely proud to never have lost an astronaut in space. Apparently, astronauts lost while on their way to space, or coming back from space, or just rehearsing going to space, don't really count...

    25. Re:100%? by teridon · · Score: 1

      Truly impressive. For the curious, here is a good write-up of the 1975 incident. The 1985 incident is described briefly on Wikipedia.

      However, in my opinion is isn't quite fair to compare liquid-fueled (RP-1 and LOX) Soyuz rocket to the solid-fueled Ares. You're dealing with much more energy in solid-fuel catastrophic scenario.

      --
      I hold it, that a little rebellion, now and then, is a good thing. -- Thomas Jefferson
    26. Re:100%? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      And, in this scenario, it won't be the flaming debris that will kill the astronauts. It will be the impact with the sea/land after their parachute is torn to shreds by the flaming debris.

      Same end result.

    27. Re:100%? by WolfWithoutAClause · · Score: 1

      "The 1983 incident occurred as the rocket exploded while on the pad, and threw the capsule 6,500 feet into the air, subjecting the cosmonauts to approximately 17g of acceleration."

      No, that's not quite right. They activated the escape tower (an idea they unashamedly nicked off the Americans BTW) when there was a fire but *before* the explosion. The escape tower is a high-g get-us-the-hell-away system that is intended not to permanently injure the crew- not *quite*. It's far less likely to work if it's activated after an explosion, but you've got some chance even then.

      --

      -WolfWithoutAClause

      "Gravity is only a theory, not a fact!"
    28. Re:100%? by moosesocks · · Score: 1

      However, in my opinion is isn't quite fair to compare liquid-fueled (RP-1 and LOX) Soyuz rocket to the solid-fueled Ares. You're dealing with much more energy in solid-fuel catastrophic scenario.

      If we're talking about safety, I think it's extremely relevant. If solid-fueled rockets are inherently unsafe for manned flights, we probably shouldn't use them.

      --
      -- If you try to fail and succeed, which have you done? - Uli's moose
    29. Re:100%? by dgatwood · · Score: 1

      That's more luck than anything else, though. There are tons of non-catastrophic possible ways to die in a fatal space accident--an unlucky micrometeorite/space junk impact while on a spacewalk, tearing your suit severely while on a spacewalk, sudden airlock failure (glass breakage, for example) before you get your helmet secured, accidental electrocution, on-board fire causing death from smoke inhalation while some people are wearing spacesuits or have some other oxygen supply, docking failures between the shuttle or a Soyuz capsule and ISS, damaged drogue chute leading to a harder than normal landing of a capsule, a landing gear failure on the shuttle, etc. I'm actually kind of surprised that there haven't been any accidental deaths in space yet that didn't involve the craft blowing up....

      --

      Check out my sci-fi/humor trilogy at PatriotsBooks.

    30. Re:100%? by moosesocks · · Score: 1

      True, although I think we can conclude that launching and landing is considerably more risky than any of the other space operations, given that we've never had a fatal spacewalk accident or hard landing that killed the cosmo/astronauts aboard (and the Russians have certainly seen their share of nasty landings). On the other hand, we've had quite a few launch/landing failures.

      I'm not sure if an airlock failure would actually kill you if you were almost fully suited up. There's been quite a bit of speculation about this, and I believe that the consensus is that you'd have somewhere between 15 seconds and a minute before losing consciousness. A lot of this discussion revolved around the airlock scene in 2001, which was deemed to be vaguely plausible. (The probability of being picked up by a passing spacecraft, on the other hand, remains undetermined.)

      There were also a few incidents aboard Mir that certainly endangered the crew on bboard.

      --
      -- If you try to fail and succeed, which have you done? - Uli's moose
    31. Re:100%? by E++99 · · Score: 1

      TFA is wrong when it says the black zone is the first 60 seconds. TFReport says the black zone is the second 30 seconds. 10 seconds on either side of that are the danger zones.

      Ironically perhaps, this black zone is centered around the moment of maximum dynamic pressure... the same moment when the challenger disintegration began.

  8. Slide 2 Lower Right by El+Torico · · Score: 2, Informative

    Slide 2 Lower Right "CAPSULE IS HERE"
    Feel free to draw your own conclusion.

    --
    In the land of the blind, the one-eyed man is usually crucified.
    1. Re:Slide 2 Lower Right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Check out the "Contact Info Deleted" section on Slide 1.
      Seems people still haven't learned how to redact PDF documents.
      His contact information is still there under the yellow box.

      (321) 494-5130
      (DSN) 854-5130
      Sean.Stapf@Patrick.AF.mil

    2. Re:Slide 2 Lower Right by ceoyoyo · · Score: 1

      Wow. I've seen a LOT of bad Powerpoint, but short of pink-on-purple slides (seriously), those are right up there.

    3. Re:Slide 2 Lower Right by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      yep, that says it all.

  9. More Broadly... by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The specifics of this issue aside(since I know next to nothing about modeling solid fuel rocket explosions, and two experts appear to disagree, along with a snide comment from a commercial outfit that would probably like the contract for themselves), what sort of safety should we bother shooting for with launch systems?

    Obviously, if we have the choice between a more safe and a less safe system we should, all else being equal, chose the more safe one. However, all else is rarely equal. More safety likely adds weight, design time, cost, whatever. How much safety is worth adding, before we get to the "For fuck's sake, dude, garbage collectors die on the job at twice the rate, and being crushed in a dumpster isn't exactly a blaze of glory..." point and live with the risks?

    Is there some direct assertion to be made(astronauts should suffer no more than X risk, period)? Should we take an empirical look at the risks of various occupations, and peg the acceptable astronaut risk as equal to that of some similar occupation for which an empirical actual risk value is available? Should we accept very high risks; because astronauts are highly likely to be well informed volunteers who have plenty of life alternatives?

    Pushing for perfect is chasing a dream. Deciding what we should be aiming for seems much more relevant.

    1. Re:More Broadly... by Entropius · · Score: 1

      I think rather we should look at the cost-benefit ratio of decreasing the risk by a given amount, i.e. if a design decision that costs $X will on average save the lives of Y astronauts over the course of the design, should it be made?

      I'm not claiming to know what the correct values of X and Y are. But I believe we should take all reasonable precautions to decrease risk, and this is really the only way to quantify "reasonable". (Granted, "reasonable" might include a lot fewer things than Nasa's doing.)

    2. Re:More Broadly... by blackraven14250 · · Score: 1

      Value of astronaut = training costs = x

      Value of saving lives 1% of time = 1/1000 of training costs = y

      y is immensely greater than x at this point, thus making it pointless to save lives. Fucking corporate values system. Money = money to corporations. Whatever saves the most money and is most profitable is the best solution, even if that means forcing competitors out of business by strongarm tactics, anticompetitive practices. Why the hell should we apply this model that doesn't work (as markets prove repeatedly), to something not based on an attempt to make money?

    3. Re:More Broadly... by Aladrin · · Score: 1

      Do these garbage collectors die from things that are their own fault, or from the fault of the engineers and ground-crew? That makes a big difference in the statistics.

      Also, I doubt garbage collector deaths are due from someone saying 'ah, it's safe enough' and letting it be. Their equipment is as safe as it could be made. Why expect any different for an astronaut?

      --
      "If you make people think they're thinking, they'll love you; But if you really make them think, they'll hate you." - DM
    4. Re:More Broadly... by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      along with a snide comment from a commercial outfit that would probably like the contract for themselves

      FYI, Bigelow Aerospace (the company quoted in the article) is in the business of building private space stations. They're a buyer in the commercial launch market, not a seller, so it's not like they'd be a getting a contract for any of this. I'd assume they have quite a bit of experience in studying the pros and cons of various launch systems for their own payloads, which is probably why they were asked for a quote for the article.

    5. Re:More Broadly... by jmv · · Score: 1

      Two space shuttle disasters in just a little over 100 missions. That's almost (not quite) as safe as serving in Iraq.

    6. Re:More Broadly... by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      Obviously, if we have the choice between a more safe and a less safe system we should, all else being equal, chose the more safe one. However, all else is rarely equal. More safety likely adds weight, design time, cost, whatever.

      In this case though, the main alternative is the liquid-based EELV rockets, which will cost less and be finished sooner. The main justification for choosing the Ares I over these was supposedly its enhanced safety and launch abort survivability, which have now been shown to actually be inferior. Well, that and providing money to particularly congressional districts, but I'm sure somebody can come up with some way to pay off Senator Shelby (R-Al) so he won't stand in the way of progress.

    7. Re:More Broadly... by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Hard to say. Page 16 of this gives the occupational fatality rate for American garbage collectors in 2007(22.8 per 100,000 for anybody who doesn't feel like opening the PDF). That doesn't tell us who was at fault in those incidents, or whether poor safety equipment was involved.

      I suspect that most of the risk is being hit by vehicles trying to pass the garbage truck while it is stopped to collect refuse(googling around didn't bring up a definitive justification for this, just references to a "University of Miami study" that said so). Adding, and enforcing, those little no passing signs, as they do for school buses, would presumably cut this down, at the expense of significant travel delays.

    8. Re:More Broadly... by QuantumG · · Score: 1

      27 is a little over 100? Wow, I'd hate to see a lot over 100.

      Oh, and do remember that the shuttle has no launch escape system, so just about any design with a launch escape system will be safer.

      --
      How we know is more important than what we know.
    9. Re:More Broadly... by QuantumG · · Score: 1

      Who says they will be finished sooner? Citation needed. The people offering to make these man-rated boosters say it will take them 5.5 years (and they're often wrong by 2x to 3x their estimates). On the other hand, there's SpaceX, who will happily deliver a manned Dragon capsule in 2.5 years after they get the $350 million funding.. of course, that's not going to help you launch the Orion.

      --
      How we know is more important than what we know.
    10. Re:More Broadly... by Entropius · · Score: 1

      I never said that we should measure Y in dollars, and I *certainly* don't want corporate contractors making that decision.

      What I'm saying is that if it's determined that spending $10 million has a 1% chance of saving the lives of a crew of ten over the lifetime of the craft, then you're at $1 million per death averted. Is that worth it?

      That's a moral question, not a scientific question -- and also not one to be made by corporate accountants.

    11. Re:More Broadly... by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

      Except that SpaceX has been successful only twice in 5 tries. And while I agree that SpaceX would do it cheaper and likely faster, I'm not as sure of the better part with them.

      --
      Our founding fathers removed the guys in charge. Be American. Vote incumbents out.
    12. Re:More Broadly... by QuantumG · · Score: 1

      So far their record is better than any launch vehicle that has ever flown 5 times.

      It's not like they're doing it alone.. they're getting plenty of help from NASA.

      --
      How we know is more important than what we know.
    13. Re:More Broadly... by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

      I have long thought that the Shuttle could have been an evolution of Apollo. The idea would be to keep the command module as the flight deck of an orbiter. The orbiter is a winged version of the Apollo service module. During launch an escape tower would be attached to the command module. During launch and landing all members of the crew would be inside the command module. A hatch through the heat shield would give access to the mid deck in the service module.

      This way it might even be possible to survive heat shield failure during aerobaking. The command module could separate and turn its heat shield forward before burn through.

    14. Re:More Broadly... by QuantumG · · Score: 1

      Heh, yeah. See, the problem was that the safety of the orbiter was dominated by the safely of the SSME, because the orbiter was designed to be reusable, the SSME could be speced to such incredible reliability because it wouldn't be thrown away after every launch.. you could amortize that cost across the long life of a single engine. Of course, this was all for a design that was meant to just shuttle people up and down and a little payload.. not for a space truck. To get the space truck concept you had to tack on solid rocket boosters (o-ring failures) and an external tank (falling debris). All of a sudden your safety assumptions are completely wrong, but what are you gunna do, go back to the drawing board? Explain that to Congress.

      --
      How we know is more important than what we know.
    15. Re:More Broadly... by khallow · · Score: 1

      I don't wish to insult SpaceX, but the rebuttal is simple. They don't have the experience to achieve an ambitious schedule of 2.5 years with the Dragon. Meanwhile that 5.5 year number comes from the most experienced people in the business who are already launching rockets that can achieve the mission. Doesn't mean it's right, but I have more confidence in that estimate than in this fantasy 2.5 year schedule that keeps bouncing around slashdot.

    16. Re:More Broadly... by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

      Actually, of all vehicles flown 5 times in the past 30 years, their record is the worst. That of course ignores all those vehicles that never made it to 5 flights, of which there are several. They're getting cash from NASA, but not much else...which is probably a good thing.

      --
      Our founding fathers removed the guys in charge. Be American. Vote incumbents out.
    17. Re:More Broadly... by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      Meanwhile that 5.5 year number comes from the most experienced people in the business who are already launching rockets that can achieve the mission.

      Quick nitpick: from the ULA's presentation to the Augustine commission about using EELVs for human spaceflight, they claim it would take 4.5 years to launch Orion, and 4 years to non-Orion manned capsule. The 5.5 years figure is from Aerospace Corp's analysis, which was solely based on how long "analogous projects" tend to take. Last I heard Ares I's schedule had slipped to 2016 (7 years from now).

  10. Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by Lord+Byron+II · · Score: 2, Interesting

    The problem is that a parachute with a low melting point enters a region with high temperature particles. Solution: increase the melting point or move the parachute away. IIRC, in the case of an abort, the capsule is lifted away from the rocket by using additional thrusters. If they were allowed to operate for longer, then they would move the capsule further away from the flaming debris.

    I have no doubt that the Ares engineers will quickly solve this (if they haven't already).

    1. Re:Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by WindBourne · · Score: 3, Informative

      Some things are not worth solving. We are talking a 1 minute window of issues. With Ares I already at the max load, it makes no sense to add more weight for the escape rocket. That is just part of the risk of being an astronaut.

      --
      I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    2. Re:Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Perhaps the solution is to screw the whole thing (blackjack, the hookers and the solid rocket booster) and to design a proper liquid-fuel rocket?

      --
      Ezekiel 23:20
    3. Re:Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by Entropius · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Rather than investing more in escape systems, it might make more sense to spend the same amount of money making rockets that blow up less...

    4. Re:Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by momerath2003 · · Score: 3, Funny

      Of course, a solid steel parachute! Why didn't we think of this before!

      Signed,
      Ares Engineers

      --
      I had but a simple dream, to destroy all humans.
    5. Re:Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by Sponge+Bath · · Score: 1

      Or train some backup astronauts.
      Are they doing a cost analysis of this?

    6. Re:Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by Tablizer · · Score: 2, Funny

      Or train some backup astronauts. Are they doing a cost analysis of this?

      Ahah! A PHB. Take away his Geek Card now!
         

    7. Re:Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by rs79 · · Score: 1

      Carbon/asbestos fibre?

      --
      Need Mercedes parts ?
    8. Re:Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by PachmanP · · Score: 2, Informative

      Rather than investing more in escape systems, it might make more sense to spend the same amount of money making rockets that blow up less...

      Well the ones that blow up less probably won't be the same design as SRBs, so they won't be made in the same congressional district as the SRBs so they won't get certain congress critters' approval.

      That's my understanding of why they went solid instead of liquid and accepted the resulting vibration problems not realizing that the shuttle has a giant liquid damper on it...

      --
      You're thinking small. Why miniaturize the laser, when we could instead enlarge the sharks? -John Searle
    9. Re:Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by Entropius · · Score: 1

      Why don't we just make the congresscritters test the SRB's for safety?

    10. Re:Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by khallow · · Score: 1

      The thing to remember here is that NASA was deliberately trying for a system where there'd be an out at every stage of the mission. If they had gone with a liquid propellant first stage, we wouldn't be having this problem. Liquids blow up slowly enough that the crew has a good chance of survival.

    11. Re:Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      They haven't solved anything quickly thus far.

    12. Re:Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The law of diminishing returns compels us to spend time us to spend time on all contingences to maximize the possibility of preserving life.

    13. Re:Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      What we really need is 2 wings a flight control system and maybe some tyres, then we can make a controlled decent to the nearest runway.

    14. Re:Sometimes /. is so fatalistic by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

      Don't carry parachutes. Do a powered landing. It worked for Neil and Buzz.

  11. The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0, Informative
    I tend to believe the Air Force. The armed services avoid affirmative action and promote solely on the basis of merit. The Air-Force scientists are among the very best in their field. I know as I was a recipient of a Department-of-Defense 3-year graduate fellowship. My doctoral dissertation focused on algorithms for tracking multiple objects (i. e., missiles) flying in the air.

    By contrast, NASA is a highly political organization. It hires on the basis of affirmative action. An African-American with a degree from Texas Southern University (which is barely better than a typical ghetto high school) will be promoted before an Asian-American or a European-American with a degree from Caltech. The quality of reports and studies issued by NASA is quite low.

  12. Re:The Air Force is right. by Entropius · · Score: 5, Interesting

    I worked at Marshall Space Flight Center -- the facility where the Ares is being developed -- for a while as part of an undergrad summer research project. While it may not be polite to say such things, AC's criticism of NASA's affirmative action policies is spot on.

    My boss and his officemate were both affirmative action hires. My boss couldn't remember his computer password and called IT every time he crashed WinNT and needed to reboot. His officemate just put his on a stickynote on his monitor. When he got a new computer he had to get me (an undergrad) to make him a desktop shortcut to Solitaire. I have no idea what that guy did other than order office supplies.

    My boss often skipped work to play golf, leaving me in charge of the lab. I wound up growing samples in a gas deposition chamber and giving them to him to catalog and characterize. At one point I asked him how the characterization was going, and he said that the Raman spectroscopy lab was buried under a backlog of debris from Columbia (which was earlier that year). At the end of the summer I had a chat with *his* boss, who told me that there was no such backlog... and then we found all the samples I had painstakingly grown and labelled lying jumbled in the bottom of a drawer of his.

    While it makes me sad to say it, I've seen Marshall Space Flight Center incompetence with my own eyes. I'm from Huntsville, the city where MSFC is located. When I was growing up Real Science got done there -- my high school English teacher is the guy who built the Lunar Rover. But it's gone downhill.

    I also know the guy who's in charge of systems integration for the Ares project. He's a young-earth creationist. I have little faith in the engineering acumen of anyone who can accomplish such a massive feat of ignoring experimental evidence.

  13. oh come on... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    what's the worst that could happen? :)

  14. Ares Rocket less safe than a Space Shuttle? by Orion+Blastar · · Score: 1, Interesting

    How did NASA (Need Another Seven Astronauts) manage to make a replacement for the Space Shuttle that is actually more dangerous to the crew than a Space Shuttle with loose heat absorbing titles or malfunctioning O-Rings?

    Was this "design flaw" in the Apollo series and the public was not made aware that aborting an Apollo rocket would kill the crew 100% guaranteed?

    --
    Remember, Slashdot does not have a -1 disagree moderation, and no, troll, flamebait, and overrated are not substitutes.
    1. Re:Ares Rocket less safe than a Space Shuttle? by russotto · · Score: 3, Informative

      I'd be surprised if any manned launch system up to now would allow the crew to survive under the condtions specified. Apollo? Apollo 1 killed its crew before even getting off the ground. Probably back then it was better understood by the public that space travel is crazy dangerous.

    2. Re:Ares Rocket less safe than a Space Shuttle? by hardburn · · Score: 1

      Was this "design flaw" in the Apollo series and the public was not made aware that aborting an Apollo rocket would kill the crew 100% guaranteed?

      No, because the Saturn series of rockets didn't use solid rocket boosters. By all rights, neither should Ares, except there's a desire to reuse old Shuttle equipment.

      --
      Not a typewriter
    3. Re:Ares Rocket less safe than a Space Shuttle? by zzyzyx · · Score: 4, Informative

      Soyuz. The rocket exploded twice, in 1975 and 1983, and each time the crew survived. See http://www.janes.com/aerospace/civil/news/jsd/jsd030203_3_n.shtml

    4. Re:Ares Rocket less safe than a Space Shuttle? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The problem that is being dealt with here is the risk inherent to the first stage system, the solid rocket booster. Riding a rocket into space is, as many people in this thread have put it, an inherently dangerous activity. What is not being appreciated is the fact that the Saturn V rocket was designed to make an abort at any time survivable. Nasa calculated the risks of losing the shuttle as being about 1 in 50, a figure they have matched quite well. The problem here is that whereas other launch systems make it possible to survive an early abort, this system ensures death if aborted before 1 minute into launch. It would be like buying a car that would kill you in a head on collision, when you can buy other models on the same lot that at least give you a chance of surviving the same kind of crash. Is driving inherently risky? Yes, it does not matter what you drive, there is always a chance you will die. On the other hand, you want to drive a vehicle that minimizes the chances of dying in a crash. It doesn't eliminate it, but it improves your chances. I hope that this will encourage serious reconsideration of the alternative methods to achieve the goal of human spaceflight.

    5. Re:Ares Rocket less safe than a Space Shuttle? by Lehk228 · · Score: 1

      but that is a russian design, those guys invented the AK-47. you can't expect us capitalist pigs to compete with that can you?

      --
      Snowden and Manning are heroes.
    6. Re:Ares Rocket less safe than a Space Shuttle? by NeuroManson · · Score: 2, Informative

      Annnnd that the idea of a capsule that could only be opened from the outside was ideal, along with a 100% oxygen atmosphere, and that properly insulated wiring was a "luxury option". They learned that REALLY fast. But that actually had nada to do with actual launch safety.

      Now if you were to compare the launch proven Saturn V rocket to the Russian M2 rockets, THERE is the big difference:

      The Saturn V was designed by Werner Von Braun, who found that several large engines were safer, because you could build in redundancies, if one out of 5 motors failed, the remaining four could get the job done.

      The N1 was designed by an aircraft designer who had no previous experience building rockets, let alone rocket engines. His solution was to build dozens of engines into it, hoping for the same ratio. Of course, the fueling systems were also flawed. The Saturn V used standard hydrogen/oxygen propellents. The N1 used hydrazine/oxygen, IIRC. Hydrazine is highly corrosive, and as they didn't keep that in mind, it ate through seals like a cop at a donut shop. Whenever it did, the rockets exploded, often during fueling, in which case, anyone on site was eaten alive.

      It was simply a BAD design.

      Now some stuff that WAS well designed: The spacesuit. That lived on to Mir, through the ISS. A part hardsuit/softsuit, that works very nicely. But frankly, the Soyuz design is best for capsule travel. Simple launch system, simple delivery, simple, carrying capacity. Which is why it's used by two countries.

      --
      Just because you can mod me down, doesn't mean you're right. Shoes for industry!
    7. Re:Ares Rocket less safe than a Space Shuttle? by enrevanche · · Score: 1

      If we ever want to get to a point where space flight is common, it has to become not crazy dangerous. Should not each successive system designed become safer than the last?

    8. Re:Ares Rocket less safe than a Space Shuttle? by russotto · · Score: 1

      Neither Soyuz case fit the conditions. Soyuz T-10-1 caught fire on the launch pad and the launch escape system fired from there; the SRB exploded on the ground a few seconds after the escape system fired. The ground explosion would significantly limit the range of the explosion compared to a mid-air explosion. Soyuz 18-1 lasted over 4 minutes, and the SRB never detonated. I don't think the Soyuz escape system would have worked during a mid-air abort (which as I understand it is done by blowing open the side casing of the solid rocket) in the first minute after launch. Isn't the Ares system based on the Soyuz one?

    9. Re:Ares Rocket less safe than a Space Shuttle? by MtViewGuy · · Score: 1

      Of course, the problem with Apollo 1 was the combination of:

      1) Too much exposed flammable materials in the pressurized portion of the capsule.

      2) The inward-opening hatch.

      3) The pressurized 100% oxygen atmosphere, which made any fire spread extremely rapidly.

      That's why by the time the Apollo 7 capsule flew, it had the following changes:

      1) Complete removal and/or replacement of flammable materials in the capsule.

      2) Switch to a fast-opening outward-opening hatch.

      3) Using standard air atmosphere on the ground with a phased switch to oxygen atmosphere after launch.

      There has been a number of suggestions that the Orion capsule should use a modified Delta IV Heavy (Delta 9250H) rocket or an Altas V 551/552 launcher as a launch vehicle. I would not be surprised that the Obama Administration seriously considers using the Atlas V 551/552 as an alternative to the Ares I rocket.

  15. A possible solution by Mitchell314 · · Score: 1

    Why not just equip the crew capsule with retro rockets?

    ...Oh, right, the exploding part. Is there any powerful form of lift that doesn't require exothermic reactions and isn't privy to melting/boiling/exploding?

    --
    I read TFA and all I got was this lousy cookie
    1. Re:A possible solution by FatLittleMonkey · · Score: 2, Informative

      Why not just equip the crew capsule with retro rockets?

      It is. That's the thing that looks like an antenna on top of all manned expendables, including artists' impressions of the Ares I/Orion stack. The escape tower. It has a bunch of solid rockets (oh the irony) that lift it away from any explosion.

      That's not the problem. The problem is they then parachute back through their own debris cloud. Which, in the case of solid rocket based launchers, is on fire.

      Escape Towers

      Escape Launch Systems

      --
      Science is all about firing a drunk pig out of a cannon just to see what happens.
  16. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    my high school English teacher is the guy who built the Lunar Rover.

    That's quite the career change...

  17. We used to be so good at this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    It's amazing that after the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo successes we can't seem to figure out how to make heavy lift rockets. This is nearly 40 years after Apollo was canceled. The Saturn rockets were real workhorses yet with all the advances we can't match them. I have to wonder if it's more beaurocracy than technology.

    1. Re:We used to be so good at this by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      That was back in the day when (1) cost was no object and (2) people didn't take (as much) advantage of that blank check.

    2. Re:We used to be so good at this by Lord+Byron+II · · Score: 1

      Only 15 Saturn V's were built and only 13 of those were actually launched. They could have had an actual catastrophic failure rate of 10% and we would have never known it given the small number of launches that we did.

      Also consider that two of the launches (Apollo 6 and 13) experienced partial failures (engines that quit prematurely).

    3. Re:We used to be so good at this by FatLittleMonkey · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It's amazing that after the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo successes we can't seem to figure out how to make heavy lift rockets. This is nearly 40 years after Apollo was canceled

      (Emphasis mine.) You have your own answer. Apollo came after Gemini, which came after Mercury, all in a single decade. And several years of NASA unmanned (though occasionally monkeyed) flights before that. A decade of various missile work before that. And a decade of prior smaller scale work each by Goddard & co and the Naz^H^H^HGermans before that. Every guy working on Apollo had years of prior experience blowing up rockets, senior guys decades.

      Since Apollo, you had skylab. A one-off bit of throw away kit. Then a ten year wait after Apollo for the shuttle. Then "Freedom", a 20+ year long program downgraded to the ISS around a Russian core. 20 years, to deliver a single station.

      Then, over 20 years since the newest shuttle was built, we have Constellation - Ares & Orion. No incremental development, no learning their "craft", just one design, refusing all criticism, and fuck you if it's wrong.

      (And Ares I isn't a first step, it's the first half of a single program. It isn't a training run, it isn't allowed to go wrong.)

      NASA's problems aren't lack of either funding or some mythical "Vision" or Kennedyesque "Challenge", nor is it political interference; it's lack of experience. Noone who has been working at NASA&co less than 20 years has been involved with the development of a manned launcher. Not one. Not the designers, the managers who chose that design, not the engineers working on it.

      I don't care how high their IQ's, how many PhD's per square mile they have, you cannot expect them to succeed without giving them a chance to build real hardware for ten years, real rockets, real capsules, before they design your final project.

      --
      Science is all about firing a drunk pig out of a cannon just to see what happens.
    4. Re:We used to be so good at this by insane_membrane · · Score: 1

      Mod this up!! Like in any other engineering feat, things have to be learned the "hard way" and if you have gaps in experience (which is what you're really alluding to here) then you lose that organizational knowledge gained. Well, not ALL of it, but a lot of the what you can call "historical knowledge" was probably lost...

    5. Re:We used to be so good at this by k.ovaska · · Score: 1

      Only 15 Saturn V's were built and only 13 of those were actually launched. They could have had an actual catastrophic failure rate of 10% and we would have never known it given the small number of launches that we did.

      True. For rockets having 10% failure rate, there is a 25% chance of having 13 successful launches (0.9^13 = 0.254). We can say with some confidence that Saturn V had a failure rate below 20% (5% chance) and good confidence that the rate was below 30% (1% chance).

    6. Re:We used to be so good at this by Valdrax · · Score: 1

      It's amazing that after the Mercury, Gemini, and Apollo successes we can't seem to figure out how to make heavy lift rockets.

      You mean, like Apollo 1 which killed three former Mercury & Gemini pilots on the launchpad during a training exercise?

      This is nearly 40 years after Apollo was canceled. The Saturn rockets were real workhorses yet with all the advances we can't match them. I have to wonder if it's more beaurocracy than technology.

      In 40 years, we've lost a lot of the blueprints and records of how the technology was made, and almost all the minds behind the project are dead or retired, having long forgotten the details of a project they worked on 40 years ago. (Try picking back up a project you worked on a mere 10 years ago with much of the documentation missing!)

      --
      If it's for-profit but free, you're not the customer -- you're the product (e.g., the Slashdot Beta's "audience").
  18. Not surprised by Dolphinzilla · · Score: 2, Insightful

    folks it was built by the LOW BIDDER - what on earth would you expect - the design has been an abortion since day 1 and has had problems with virtually every single subsystem.....

    1. Re:Not surprised by John+Hasler · · Score: 1

      You would prefer that contracts go to the high bidder?

      --
      Warning: this article may contain humor, sarcasm, parody, and perhaps even irony. Read at your own risk.
    2. Re:Not surprised by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Yes, everything done by the government goes to the lowest bidder... Then the government spends twice as much to get it working.

    3. Re:Not surprised by gigabites2 · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Depends. Does the high bidder have a better track record? Do they devote more resources and talent to the project? Lowest bidder implies doing it the cheapest way possible which usually entails cutting a few corners. Now, believe it or not, more money has a way of alleviating these issues. Obviously, the reputation of the bidder is important as well, but then again, it's someone's job to investigate so that the decision is made in an informed manner. Of course, this is strictly academic as the damn thing's about finished anyway.

    4. Re:Not surprised by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      That's a pretty ignorant remark.
      The industrial base for large scale solid rocket motors has shrunken to where there is only one company capable of making the solid rockets for Ares. The same company that makes the solid rockets for the space shuttle - ATK. So I'm guessing there wasnt much of a bidding war between manufacturers since there is only one manufacturer left in north america who does this kind of work...

      Likewise it's not like you're getting the dregs with the 'low bidder' on the other systems.
      The aerospace industry is so consolidated now, the low bidder doesnt end up being Joe-Bob's Rocket Co. It's pretty much the usual suspects, Lockheed, Boeing, ULA, ATK...

      Do your homework, or just be a troll.

    5. Re:Not surprised by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It's also worth noting that the solid rockets on the space shuttle, on which the Ares solid is based, have never failed other than the O-ring leak which caused the Challenger accident. However, even in challenger, the solid rockets separated and flew away without exploding into a 3 mile wide cloud of burning debris. They're visible in video of the accident. Also I wouldnt think that kind of O-ring leak would be fatal on the Ares design since it wouldnt be strapped onto a 500,000 gallon tank of liquid hydrogen...

    6. Re:Not surprised by MBGMorden · · Score: 1

      Built by the low bidder? Maybe. As someone who's worked in government for almost a decade now I can say that the lowest bidder doesn't always get the contract. Even in a best case scenario it's limited to the lowest QUALIFIED bidder, but several other factors come into play. Previous experience on similar projects, quality of work on previous projects, number of people they can dedicate to the project, etc. Last software project I was on was short-listed to 2 bidders - one of which bid 30% higher than the other but they still got the contract because the purchasing committee felt they were a better match.

      Regardless, we're talking about nitpicks in the DESIGN, not the construction thereof. This "low bidder" nonsense is completely off-base at this point. It might have been a nice little funny line in Armageddon, but in reality it holds little weight.

      --
      "People who think they know everything are very annoying to those of us who do."-Mark Twain
    7. Re:Not surprised by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

      I could be wrong, but I am pretty sure there was no 'bidding' per se on Ares. It was designed to use existing equipment and therefore existing contracts and contractors.

      --
      Our founding fathers removed the guys in charge. Be American. Vote incumbents out.
  19. Re:The Air Force is right. by Entropius · · Score: 4, Funny

    Especially for a German. He designed the thing, wound up retiring from NASA, and teaching English in his German accent.

    Guy had quite the sense of humor, along with a reputation for being hard as hell. I asked him in the halls one day how many people had dropped dead from his latest exam, and he said "Oh, all of them! I run a mortuary on the side; good way to get more business!"

  20. That's OK... by K.+S.+Kyosuke · · Score: 1

    After all, it's a replacement for Space Shuttle, isn't it? *ducks* (But seriously, Russians really got this right. You just *don't* put people on top of a big solid propellant booster if you want them to survive.)

    --
    Ezekiel 23:20
    1. Re:That's OK... by richdun · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The Russian and us, sans 40 years of "experience." You'd think Challenger would've taught us something about stackable SRBs and people. Or Columbia something about non-melting crew return vehicles.

      Oh, I just had an idea! How about a capsule with an ablative heat shield mounted on top of a liquid-fueled, multi-stage heavy lifter?! I know, I know, I'm a genius (and a rocket scientist, IRL, coincidentally).

    2. Re:That's OK... by Opportunist · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Well, then you should know the answer: Cost.

      Space travel has to be cost effective. We're not in the 60s anymore where it was a matter of national prestige, where money was no matter and where nobody would have questioned spending another billion to get our men there before those pesky Reds. And of course we must not lose any astronauts when those Russkies don't. After all, we gotta prove our technology is superior to theirs and much safer, and we care about the life of our men while they risk their life carelessly.

      Try to argue it today. Space travel is not a matter of prestige anymore. Anyone can do it. Even "backwater" countries like India have rockets today, being a spacefaring nation is no longer something to show off how superior you are. People accept the need to put satelites into the orbit so they can watch sat TV and have international calls, but putting people up there? What for, leave it to countries that have spare money to blow up.

      Yes, it's quite near sighted and many people don't even come close to understanding what technological progess we owe to the space program. A lot of research done for space programs created as a by-product some discoveries nobody would have invested a cent in because of the lack of a direct reward. From metallurgy to propulsion to computers, a LOT was tried and most of it was a dead end, but the remaining pieces are gems that we would not have today. Worth it? Hard to say.

      But there's no time and money left for ground breaking basic research. If it can't be turned into profit, it's hard to sell it to the taxpayer these days.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    3. Re:That's OK... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How about a capsule with an ablative heat shield mounted on top of a liquid-fueled, multi-stage heavy lifter?!

      That's so simple it could be built in a single Congressional district, and it will therefore never get funded. A $10B programme built in one or two states will lose to a $100B programme that requires parts from all 50 states. A $1T programme built in all 50 states will be cut for cost.

      It's not about safety, it's not about engineering, it's not even about whether the cost is high or low, it's about making sure the pork is spread to every Congressional district.

    4. Re:That's OK... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      If your not going to do something right and right being survivable plus being repeatable immediately then why are we even doing it? Seems like a 30 plus year sham to bilk taxpayers money when we should already have a starship, cruiser or at least a shuttle craft to get these things done. It just seems weird that we are so stuck in this weird mess of accepting crappy projects just to say we are doing it.

    5. Re:That's OK... by rekees · · Score: 1

      It it absolutely worth it, if only for one reason: human creativity. This is enough. Without creativity, we'd be plants happy basking in the sun for a relatively specific period of time on this planet. And besides the creativity to design/build/fly these amazing machines, there is a creative piece in the industry often missed: how to get the $$ to keep it going and see the folks you work with all exited during an integration and testing or launch/commissioning period, be the result good or bad. Maybe just for those few that are superbly devoted, there are some left, it's all worth it.

    6. Re:That's OK... by waferhead · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Back in the ~70s, in the bidding stage of the shuttle program, General Dynamics had some interesting designs for a reusable--- FLYABLE---landed on its own, was piloted--- liquid fueled boost stage for a shuttle... and that proposed version of the shuttle was made of titanium mostly and had about 2X the payload, and far more range, and probably would have cost 1/4 of the final "cheaper" congressional mandated aluminum design.

      Perhaps we should dust off some of the designs that lost the shuttle design-off due to congressional interference.

      The shuttles concept didn't suck.
      The final design did.

      (My dad worked for GD back in the day, including at the cape)

    7. Re:That's OK... by Truth+is+life · · Score: 1

      Hell, CHRYSLER (yeah, Chrysler) had a nifty SSTO proposal that I don't think made it past the RFP. Still pretty cool, though.

    8. Re:That's OK... by Opportunist · · Score: 2, Informative

      GD made a few key mistakes in their attempt to get government contracts. Mostly that they hired engineers instead of lobbyists and spent the money on research instead of kickbacks.

      --
      We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
    9. Re:That's OK... by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      Astronautix has a pretty fascinating overview of all the shuttle concepts here:

      http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/shuttle.htm

      Unfortunately, this seems to be a recurring problem with NASA: Soliciting proposals from the commercial sector, many of which are really great, and then discarding them all so they can use their own design which is more responsive to the needs of politics than engineering and economics.

    10. Re:That's OK... by khallow · · Score: 1

      Ah yes, vague intangible benefit is worth the dollars no matter how many we throw at it. Let me introduce you to opportunity cost. Have you considered some other way to increase the creativity of the human race while spending less? Or is building rockets for a hundred billion USD the only possible way to do it?

    11. Re:That's OK... by NickCool · · Score: 1

      Yes! Apollo / Saturn revived? Please don't start in folks with the "lost plans" objection. There are 2 or 3 Saturns left. They can't fly, but they can be disassembled for reverse engineering. Make the first and possibly the second stage recoverable.

    12. Re:That's OK... by confused+one · · Score: 1

      They weren't allowed to use titanium. The Air Force had priority and was using all of the available material for other projects.

    13. Re:That's OK... by MtViewGuy · · Score: 1

      That's why there has been a number of suggestions of shelving the Ares I rocket in favor of using either the Delta IV Heavy (Delta 9250H) or the Altas V 551/552 to launch the Orion spacecraft. I'd favor the Atlas V 551/552, though.

    14. Re:That's OK... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Funny, SpaceX decided to take such a route..

  21. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

    You made the exact same comment in comment number (#28744649). Do you have some sort of agenda?

  22. Risk? by Runaway1956 · · Score: 4, Interesting

    How much risk is acceptable? Is the Air Force suggesting that space exloration should be 0% risk, or less?

    If so, then we should probably ground all aircraft, scrap all automobiles - you get the idea.

    Let's face it. Sitting on top of tons of explosive, and lighting them off, is going to be risky. Minimize the risk, yeah, but there will always BE RISK. It doesn't matter what kind of engine you are using, or what kind of fuel it is using. A crash within the first minute of flight is often quite deadly in aviation simply because the pilot has so few options for ditching or bailing out. The same will always be true of spaceflight.

    If we want 0% risk, we had better get started on that space elevator. Of course, there may be some hidden risk at some point in that ascent - but at least we won't be blowing it up to use it.

    --
    "Windows is like the faint smell of piss in a subway: it's there, and there's nothing you can do about it." - Charlie Br
    1. Re:Risk? by Entropius · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The Air Force doesn't seem to be making a moral judgment.

      They're doing what any good scientist or engineer will do: "If you do this, this will happen. I'm not telling you what you *should* do, but simply what will happen if you do it."

    2. Re:Risk? by richdun · · Score: 3, Informative

      Also, it helps to understand the AF's perspective here. As safety officers, they may have to be the ones pushing the Big Red Button (TM) if things go wrong. They're just laying things out so NASA knows what to expect. And as others have pointed out, "aborting" a solid rocket launch is... well... about as successful as aborting a nuclear reaction. You don't get to stop things from burning like you might with a liquid-fueled rocket. You just get to watch the remaining fuel get burned up, people on top or not.

    3. Re:Risk? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      How much risk is acceptable?

      Public Law 60 requires spacelift be as safe as air travel.

    4. Re:Risk? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The Air Force doesn't seem to be making a moral judgment.

      They're doing what any good scientist or engineer will do: "If you do this, this will happen. I'm not telling you what you *should* do, but simply what will happen if you do it."

      Not true. The Air Force has responsibility for safety on the Eastern Range and sets safety guidelines that NASA must follow for all their launches from the ER. If the Air Force says NASA can't jump, then NASA can't jump.

    5. Re:Risk? by Mr.+DOS · · Score: 1

      Is the Air Force suggesting that space exloration should be 0% risk, or less?

      No, but they'd at least like a better-than-0% chance of rescuing astronauts if the launch fails.

            --- Mr. DOS

    6. Re:Risk? by Runaway1956 · · Score: 1

      As I recall, a launch takes hours. There are hours on the launchpad before ignition, and there are at least 30 to 45 minutes after ignition before achieving orbit. There are only 60 critical seconds under discussion here. A launch failure occured 5 times in the last few days ie, the mission was scrubbed. The astronauts were "rescued" from all 5 of those launch failures.

      As for those critical 60 seconds - well, they are STILL almost as safe as aviation. Takeoff and landing both have their critical moments, where a mistake is almost always fatal.

      Ask a Navy or Marine aviator about carrier ops.

      --
      "Windows is like the faint smell of piss in a subway: it's there, and there's nothing you can do about it." - Charlie Br
    7. Re:Risk? by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

      The Air Force is the one calculating the risk to the public. For every launch from the Cape or KSC. So the Air Force accepts risk on every launch. Air Force doesn't care if your launch is 100% guaranteed to fail...as long as that flight termination system works and public safety is kept reasonable (reasonable is defined in regulations). Likewise, astronauts on a shuttle are going to die during a failure. The Air Force doesn't stop NASA from launching the Shuttles. The briefing was provided to NASA as informational, not directive. NASA made it public, probably by someone who wants Ares to die a quick death.

      --
      Our founding fathers removed the guys in charge. Be American. Vote incumbents out.
    8. Re:Risk? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      A space elevator is a huge risk. If it breaks apart - for example if some terrorist nukes the tethered asteroid at the top which helps hold it up - the immensely heavy cable tries to wrap itself around the earth like a sword-blade meteor. I'd be happier with a conventional rocket that is safer than the shuttle.

    9. Re:Risk? by syousef · · Score: 1

      How much risk is acceptable? Is the Air Force suggesting that space exloration should be 0% risk, or less?

      Less than 0% risk? How does that work? Does the crew have to mate and reproduce or something so you have more astronauts than you started with after a launch?

      --
      These posts express my own personal views, not those of my employer
    10. Re:Risk? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      There is a difference between risk and a ~100%(ie. certain) chance of death.

    11. Re:Risk? by confused+one · · Score: 1

      The main engines on the shuttle run for around 8:30 depending on the mission profile. the boosters only for 2:06 at which point they are detached. There is a final kick by the OMS to circularize the orbit which occurs later (around that 45 minute point) but by then you're essentially already in orbit.

      I agree with your general premise that it's still fairly safe... but comparing them to carrier ops! That's one of the most dangerous places in the world with respect to aviation.

  23. Re:The Air Force is right. by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    Sadly, your education was not that much. I see that you did not learn to be brave enough to sign your name to such a statement.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  24. Re:The Air Force is right. by cratermoon · · Score: 1

    Racist much?

  25. Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by Shag · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Here's the straight-talk version:

    "Welcome to NASA. We're going to send you into space, but this involves sitting you atop something that's basically a big stick of explosives. We're aiming for a controlled burn, and most of the time we get that part right, but as you're probably aware, every now and then something does blow the heck up.

    Now, as you might imagine, if you are sitting atop a big stick of explosives, and it blows the heck up, you probably go with it. We're going to try to give you some kind of an out so that the explosives can blow up without you doing the same, but we want you to know it's not really going to make your odds all that much better."

    I mean, seriously, folks. People don't sign up to be astronauts without grasping that there's a very real risk of death at pretty much every point in the mission.

    --
    Village idiot in some extremely smart villages.
    1. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by greyhueofdoubt · · Score: 2, Interesting

      My first thought was, "I wish they spent this much time reducing risk for soldiers as they do for astronauts."

      Yeah, I'm a soldier. This is kind of sickening in a way since I spent the entire day practicing, "If the first post-attack recon team doesn't report back within 5 minutes, we'll send the backup par team. If the backup par team doesn't report back within 5 minutes, we'll send..."

      Our chem warfare training assumes at least a 50% casualty rate. This is not what I signed up for. Astronauts DID sign up for this.

      -b

      --
      No offense, but I've stopped responding to AC's.
    2. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by Hurricane78 · · Score: 0

      And your comparison is only as true, as a rocket is a stick of explosives.

      Or in other words: It is not a stick of explosives, or it would be called that.

      Sure it's not without risk. But hey, remember that your car uses an *explosion* motor too? So in your spirit, I could argue that you are sitting behind a box in which there are thousands of explosions a minute.

      You see how far this can be from the truth.

      There being a big tank of fuel below them does *not* mean it has to kill them. That's just being lazy!

      Sure it is no childs play to make it safe and working. But damnit, you're *rocket scientist*. It's your *job* to do that.

      and wanna know how i'd protect them? Between the main capsule and the fuel tanks, I'd put a upside-down cone, with the capsule partially "inside" it. I'd build that thing in a way, that pressure from the (exploding or burning) tanks would push the capsule away. The worse, the further. Then use the usual parachutes, and you're good.
      Optionally, add some *small* explosives, and a strong plate *on top* of it, so that the explosives can impossibly penetrate the plate, but just help to push the capsule away, enough to be safe.
      (A bit like a ejection seats.)

      --
      Any sufficiently advanced intelligence is indistinguishable from stupidity.
    3. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Wait, you think astronauts sign up to die, and soldiers don't? Those recruiting video games are working better than I imagined...

    4. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by greyhueofdoubt · · Score: 0

      I didn't join to die, and astronauts didn't join to die. We both joined because of our similar passions for our trade, our mission, and (dare I say it) our society. But being an astronaut, a soldier, a lumberjack, a trucker, etc- these jobs entail a great deal of risk. NASA's death toll is no secret and joining up with NASA is a very competitive, very rarified atmosphere. So are those other jobs, plus many, many more that you never hear about that kill many people.

      The point of my post was that I wish that OTHER high-risk jobs had such high expectations of safety. I was saying that NASA's expectation of safety far outpaces their *record* of safety- and I wish the military had the same luxury. In the military lives are lost or saved because of $50 worth of medical supplies. NASA spends millions for a 50/50 chance at fiery death.

      -

      --
      No offense, but I've stopped responding to AC's.
    5. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      News flash: a solid fuel rocket is pretty much a stick of low velocity explosive.

    6. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by homm2 · · Score: 1

      You're absolutely right that space travel is inherently dangerous and that shouldn't necessarily deter us from engaging in it despite the risks.

      However, that shouldn't excuse the disaster-waiting-to-happen that is Ares I. Particularly when there are better, cheaper, and safer alternatives. In particular, a recently released study finds that EELVs would absolutely be a safe, cheap alternative to the Ares I.

      We definitely need to take risks in space travel, but not stupid dangerous risks of strapping humans to SRBs that cannot be controlled or turned off in any way and have a history of failing spectacularly.

    7. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by makomk · · Score: 1

      Or in other words: It is not a stick of explosives, or it would be called that.

      No, a solid-fuel rocket is basically a long, relatively slow-burning stick of explosive. It's a bit like a large firework rocket, really. Plus, like a firework, it's not all that controllable - you light it and pray.

    8. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      This is not what I signed up for.

      Unelss you signed up, pre-Bush, yes it fucking is. It's the military. Lots of people die. What the fuck did you expect?

      Now, my sympathies if you signed up in peacetime and had two wars started under your feet. But still...that's always a risk.

    9. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by khallow · · Score: 1

      Our chem warfare training assumes at least a 50% casualty rate. This is not what I signed up for. Astronauts DID sign up for this.

      Yes, it is exactly what you signed up for. And if you think a 50% casualty rate is bad, think of what the other side's casualty rate will be from the inevitable nuclear strike. The point is that the US military has a solution to chemical warfare, which while far from perfect, is more than adequate to keep all but small nutcase groups with nothing to lose from using chemical weapons. Think of it from the enemy commander's perspective. I use chemical weapons and I can inflict maybe 50% casualties, assuming my attack goes off flawlessly rather than killing my troops by accident. In return, my army and I get nuked into oblivion. That's an awful big downside for an unreliable weapon.

    10. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I agree that money should be spent protecting troops.
      But if you are in the American military, which is a volunteer military, you did sign up for this.

    11. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by MurphyZero · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I was military too (though Air Force--chair force) and yes, in case of war, that is what you signed up for. If armies can't inflict casualties they're doing it wrong. So unless you're going up against the junior varsity you should expect to take casualties. And if they have chemical warfare in their arsenal, 50% seems right. US doesn't go 20 years without some sort of conflict, so there's a good chance a ground pounder could see some action in his career. I knew basic math, so I avoided Army and Marine Corps. The key difference is the odds to any one individual. The astronauts are still more likely to die than any specific person in the military. The key is that NASA only has 4 or 5 opportunities a year at the cost of about a billion or so in equipment and mission each time. Military has many thousands of opportunities a year for something to go wrong and someone to die with much smaller opportunity costs. NASA does that a couple times and no more NASA. Military does it 100 times and it gets explained as the cost of protecting the country and volunteer military and a couple guys get early retirement.

      --
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    12. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by Valdrax · · Score: 1

      The difference is that when some dies in a NASA mission, it's because of negligence or simple design choices that they were forced to make; either way the people responsible were working to ensure that the victims did not die and failed. When someone dies in the army, it's because someone else is trying to kill you and succeeded at their job. Maybe NASA would expect 50% casualties if there was another agency out to kill their employees too.

      War cannot be casualty free like engineering could theoretically be. We try the best we can to make as one-sided as possible, but battle plans have to be made to be able to succeed in spite of possible losses, and soldiers have to be trained not to fall apart when their allies die (or simply lose the ability to communicate). Hence, training to send in people after the first don't report back.

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    13. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by amorsen · · Score: 1

      Soldiers from Western nations deployed to war generally have at most 1-2% risk of death per 6 month tour. At least that's what I have previously estimated from death tolls in Afghanistan and Iraq (although I'll admit that I haven't been very rigorous). The Shuttle is at around 2%.

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    14. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by lennier · · Score: 1

      On the other hand, you don't fly in a Shuttle once every six months for several years on end.

      --
      You are not a brain: http://books.google.com/books?id=2oV61CeDx-YC
    15. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by smash · · Score: 1

      Our chem warfare training assumes at least a 50% casualty rate. This is not what I signed up for

      Um... what *DID* you sign up for? Free pony rides? You're training to GO TO WAR. People die in war. The whole point is that the enemy is trying to kill you (and vice versa).

      The only reason the dickheads in power are so care-free about sending soldiers off to die is because so many of them seem so eager to sign up for it.

      --
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    16. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by jackbird · · Score: 1

      When someone dies in the army, it's because someone else is trying to kill you and succeeded at their job.

      Or because some contractor wanted to save a few bucks.

    17. Re:Maybe it's just an occupational hazard. by amorsen · · Score: 1

      I don't know about other nations, but in Denmark most soldiers take a couple of tours in their military career. This is comparable to the number of trips an astronaut takes.

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  26. numbers for the LAS by at10u8 · · Score: 1

    I sure would like to see the numbers which show how the solid fuel debris velocity compares with the velocity imparted to the capsule by the launch abort system.

    1. Re:numbers for the LAS by greyhueofdoubt · · Score: 1

      This is a NASA report that covers your exact question.

      http://images.spaceref.com/news/2009/fratricide.report.pdf

      Very good visual aid to understand the ideas.

      -b

      --
      No offense, but I've stopped responding to AC's.
  27. Actually by WindBourne · · Score: 2, Informative

    it would be in the Orion coffin, not an Ares.

    --
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  28. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    That's nothing. Buzz Aldrin sold used cars.

  29. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    nice dup post you've got there.

  30. Ares is a Disaster by segedunum · · Score: 1

    Ares is simply a disaster and rehashing old designs to shoddily heavy lift payloads into space is plain wrong if you expect to try and get into space on a regular basis. Don't get me started on how stupid solid rocket boosters are. You need something that you can control. It's yet another disaster waiting to happen after the Shuttle. There is no way in this day and age after fifty years that getting in space should involve a completely irreversible, one way process of lighting a solid rocket booster.

    I believe others have pointed to the lack of scientific talent and and lack of merit within NASA these days and we're seeing the results.

  31. Re:The Air Force is right. by Afforess · · Score: 2, Insightful

    No, He's a Realist

    --
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  32. Re:The Air Force is right. by iksbob · · Score: 3, Insightful

    >Racist much?

    From Oxford American Dictionaries:
    "affirmative action
    noun
    an action or policy favoring those who tend to suffer from discrimination, esp. in relation to employment or education; positive discrimination."

    Yes. Yes it is.

  33. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The Gov't is replete with AA hires (regardless of color of skin). It's a sad, sad state that things are in, but it won't get fixed. It will simply implode. I work in the Intel community and I have seen with my own eyes incidents in which people died downrange that could have been readily avoided if the incompetent moron in charge had simply been fired in time. The forces of socialism are stronger than the forces of common sense, I'm afraid.

  34. Made up data Real life ( Wait. What? ) by StarsAreAlsoFire · · Score: 5, Insightful

    From TFA:

    "But Jeff Hanley, who manages NASA's Constellation program that includes the Ares I, questioned the validity of the Air Force study because it relied on only one example. He said NASA had done its own study, using supercomputers to replicate the behavior of Ares I, that predicted a safe outcome."

    Allow me to translate this:

    "[...] He said NASA had done its own study, *USING NO EXAMPLES AT ALL WHATSOEVER*, that predicted the results that NASA required for further funding."

    Show me that 'the supercomputers' model the Air Force's one example to within .5% of reality and I will consider apologizing to Mr. Hanley.

    I am incredibly passionate about space flight. The incompetence and political gaming which has produced the fiasco that is the Ares has not caused me any surprise. From the moment NASA decided on solids for a manned vehicle I knew that, without question, the advancement of the state of the art was not going to come from NASA. Ares isn't about space travel. It's about government subsidies to existing aerospace contractors. Thiokol /ATK, I'm looking at you.

  35. Re:Badass by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    They only do that in China for events like the Olympics.

  36. Just make a ceramic parachute by Tablizer · · Score: 1

    oh...wait

  37. Re:The Air Force is right. by rdnetto · · Score: 1

    For those asking for proof, here's one example:
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Richard_feynman#Challenger_disaster

    --
    Most human behaviour can be explained in terms of identity.
  38. Re:The Air Force is right. by ShakaUVM · · Score: 2, Insightful

    I also know the guy who's in charge of systems integration for the Ares project. He's a young-earth creationist. I have little faith in the engineering acumen of anyone who can accomplish such a massive feat of ignoring experimental evidence.

    Well, I don't know how long it took YOU to experimentally replicate the universe in your high school lab, but MINE certainly took less than 6 days to do.

  39. Re:The Air Force is right. by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I also know the guy who's in charge of systems integration for the Ares project. He's a young-earth creationist. I have little faith in the engineering acumen of anyone who can accomplish such a massive feat of ignoring experimental evidence.

    Have you considered asking him how he reconciles the two habits of mind?

  40. Re:The Air Force is right. by NewbieProgrammerMan · · Score: 3, Informative

    The armed services ... promote solely on the basis of merit.

    As a former member of the armed services, I find that hilarious.

    --
    [b.belong('us') for b in bases if b.owner() == 'you']
  41. Re:The Air Force is right. by rubycodez · · Score: 2, Interesting

    hah, how typical, raising a "racist" smokescreen when someone talks how people with no ability are given jobs they aren't qualified for on the baasis of their race in the name of affirmative action. The truth is affirmative action is racist, only ability should matter.

  42. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I suspect you were in the Navy ...

  43. Re:The Air Force is right. by geekboy642 · · Score: 0, Flamebait

    Blatant moronic racism aside, you're a complete and total idiot. The Air Force promotes based only on two factors: the ability to get above 40% on a nearly open-book history test and time served. A wooden manikin can be promoted to sergeant in five years.

    --
    Just another "DOJ fascist authoritarian totalitarian bootlicker" -- Zeio
  44. Re:The Air Force is right. by fishbowl · · Score: 2, Funny

    "An African-American with a degree from Texas Southern University (which is barely better than a typical ghetto high school) will be promoted before an Asian-American or a European-American with a degree from Caltech."

    They dropped your resume on the floor, and didn't even send you a card saying how much they regretted it, didn't they? And the only explanation for that is someone of a more fortunate race also applied. Bless your heart.

    --
    -fb Everything not expressly forbidden is now mandatory.
  45. Wait For The Bang..... by IHC+Navistar · · Score: 3, Insightful

    "NASA management has stated that their computer models predict a safe outcome."

    -In retrospect, NASA also predicted the safe outcome of the last Challenger launch.

    "It's time they you take off your Engineering hats and start putting on your Management hats."

    - Famous last words. Unfortunately, with the current disagreement brewing, I think someone at NASA must have uttered those very same words, not knowing what trouble they can cause.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think NASA has all the elements for the Perfect Storm:

    1. Underfunded,
    2. Overzealous and overbearing management,
    3. Overconfidence,
    4. Massively complex, high-risk mechanical systems,
    5. Career managers making critical decisions, instead of career engineers,
    6. Over-valued managers,
    7. Under-valued engineers.

    Ever notice how when something goes wrong at NASA, it almost always results in a massive, explosive failure, along with several deaths?

    Oh well. This conflict will give the networks something to scruitinze instead of endless "specials" on the life and death of some freaky-deeky nutjob pop singer.

    --
    Knowing Google's lust for data collection, the Soviet Union is still alive and well inside the psyche of Sergey Brin....
    1. Re:Wait For The Bang..... by shacky003 · · Score: 1

      While I completely agree with most of your points above, a few may not have been well thought out before the fingers hit the keys:

      "-In retrospect, NASA also predicted the safe outcome of the last Challenger launch."

      Considering they have always run the shuttle program while figuring odds of catastrophic failure per launch, your above sentence makes no sense.
      The horrible Challenger disaster was reported to be within those odds. If as a general numbers example, say, there is a one in five thousand chance
      that you could get into a car accident while driving today, would that keep you from getting in your car on any given day? We all know that just driving
      is a dangerous activity compared to many other things out there, but we don't let small odds run our activities. With your above statement, if a friend
      predicted that you wouldn't get into an accident next Tuesday, and you then did - by your logic that would make it so no one could ever trust your
      friend with anything ever again. A little narrow minded I.M.H.O..

      "Ever notice how when something goes wrong at NASA, it almost always results in a massive, explosive failure, along with several deaths?"

      That really doesn't mean that the general culture at NASA is unsafe - it simply means that the toilets clogging up don't make national news..
      There are many smaller failures that you don't hear about on the 11pm news that don't result in death. Can you make the same statement you did
      above about the US coal mining industry? It's generally a fairly safe industry (compared to other mining countries) considering the deaths per thousand
      workers, but it IS extremely dangerous. - In order to accomplish certain jobs, you have to go through very dangerous odds. NASA is involved in those.

    2. Re:Wait For The Bang..... by NormalVisual · · Score: 1

      Considering they have always run the shuttle program while figuring odds of catastrophic failure per launch, your above sentence makes no sense.

      Well, it actually does make sense in the context of the decision to launch that day. The engineers said, "it's too f'n cold to launch this morning - the O-rings won't seal properly". Management said, "no, we think it'll be okay". Management predicted a safe outcome, and the rest is history.

      --
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    3. Re:Wait For The Bang..... by shacky003 · · Score: 1

      The context of what you originally said speaks for itself. You (as well as I) were speaking of
      NASA as a whole, and not "some NASA staff" "A dude at NASA" or "Several NASA Managers that give
      the final GO" - NASA as a whole (as it's generally referred to) predicts launch failures
      per thousand, etc... Your example isn't NASA in general, but a few morons given too much power.

      I don't take issue with you calling out the culture problems down there, just your way of
      stating it in your original post as it being all of NASA that was wrong about the odds that
      day.

    4. Re:Wait For The Bang..... by NormalVisual · · Score: 1

      I didn't write the original post. :-)

      --
      Please stand clear of the doors, por favor mantenganse alejado de las puertas
  46. Re:The Air Force is right. by EQ · · Score: 3, Informative

    They are not talking about some dumbmass SSgt E-5 cook that, as you say "get above 40% on a nearly open-book history test and time served". He is referring to the civilian scientists and engineering officers in the test, development and design as well as range safety officers. It seems YOU are the idiot.

    --
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  47. Really? by greyhueofdoubt · · Score: 1

    Really? This was modded troll? I've never really cared enough to ask about my moderations but this one bugs me. What is my motivation to post if it might get randomly modded troll and never see the light of day?

    Sorry I'm just tired after a long day.

    -b

    --
    No offense, but I've stopped responding to AC's.
    1. Re:Really? by FatLittleMonkey · · Score: 1

      Greyhueofdoubt's post contains the phrase "First post".

      --
      Science is all about firing a drunk pig out of a cannon just to see what happens.
    2. Re:Really? by haifastudent · · Score: 1

      Maybe some flower-snorting soldier-hating just-give-peace-a-chance idiot with no sense of reality has mod points today. Don't worry about it, you have more important things to worry about than some unrealistic idiot with a dream of "whirled peas" and a grudge against those who protect him.

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    3. Re:Really? by khallow · · Score: 1

      The phrase "this isn't what I signed up for" used with respect to the US military. Definitely, trolling words.

    4. Re:Really? by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 1

      Maybe some flower-snorting soldier-hating just-give-peace-a-chance idiot with no sense of reality has mod points today.

      Given the tone of GPP's post, I think it's more likely he was modded down by some 101st Fighting Keyboarders type who thinks he's being bold and patriotic by putting a "Support The Troops" magnetic ribbon on his SUV, and war is the coolest thing EVAR as long as someone else does the dying. There are a lot more of those out there than there are the naive hippies, and they tend to react badly to having their macho illusion-bubble punctured.

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
  48. Re:The Air Force is right. by Latinhypercube · · Score: 1

    Yeah. You loons are right. The problem with NASA is all the blacks. HAHAHAHA !!! Do you know how racist and stupid you sound ?

  49. Re:The Air Force is right. by MrMista_B · · Score: 1

    The only 'blatant moronic racicm' here is coming from you. Or do you think that race alone is a determinor of qualification?

    From your words, you do. That's racist, you blatant moronic racist.

  50. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    My boss and his officemate were both affirmative action hires. My boss couldn't remember his computer password and called IT every time he crashed WinNT and needed to reboot. His officemate just put his on a stickynote on his monitor. When he got a new computer he had to get me (an undergrad) to make him a desktop shortcut to Solitaire.

    That does sound pretty bad.

    At one point I asked him how the characterization was going, and he said that the Raman spectroscopy lab was buried under a backlog of debris from Columbia (which was earlier that year). At the end of the summer I had a chat with *his* boss, who told me that there was no such backlog... and then we found all the samples I had painstakingly grown and labelled lying jumbled in the bottom of a drawer of his.

    Every summer I end up with a few undergrads doing an internship. My supervisor's boss typically gives him the task of giving the undergrads something to do, with the unrealistic expectation that they're going to do something useful for us. Assuming the undergrads were incredibly smart, there would be no way in hell for them to get trained and have time to do something useful. In a semester or year-long co-op schedule, sure...in a summer internship? No. That's assuming smart people, and that's not often what we get.

    So, typically what we do is try to give the students some idea of what it is we do by giving them some task that is representative of the work, but something that we're not going to use. We do that because we don't trust them not to screw up, and we don't want to spend time fixing the screw-up. We don't want to tell them this, however. So we tell them things like, "we'll incorporate your new feature into the software later, but right now we're on feature-freeze." If they ever were to talk to my supervisors boss and mention the feature-freeze, he'd say, "that can't be right, I know for a fact they're implementing new features right now." Truth is, we never intended to use any of the undergrads work, and if we actually want the feature, we'd do it ourselves in 3 days what they did in 3 months. This was about the learning experience for them, and if they were one of the smart ones who actually were catching on quickly, we'll remember them if they apply after graduation.

    Basically, what I'm telling you is that the samples you painstakingly grew and labeled were probably never intended to go to the lab. You'd be wasting lab time, chances are you screwed up somewhere. Maybe you're smarter than that, maybe you did everything perfectly right, and that reflects great upon you. Given my knowledge of summer interns, I still wouldn't have EXPECTED you to not screw up, because it's much safer to assume you did. If you ever asked me what the results were, I'd try to spin you a little story so as to not make you feel like you were just doing busy work, but that's for your benefit.

  51. Retro-Rockets by QuoteMeOnSlashDot · · Score: 1

    Retro-Rockets. Those are the rockets with the orange shag carpet, right?

  52. Re:The Air Force is right. by Rakshasa+Taisab · · Score: 1

    No no, he's TOTALLY right. I saw once a SSgt E-5 cook and his potato peeler guy working on the specs for a new laser-based missile-defense program. Supposedly the same tech would serve to improve the potato peeling efficiency ratio by an order of magnitude.

    --
    - These characters were randomly selected.
  53. Re:The Air Force is right. by labnet · · Score: 0

    I also know the guy who's in charge of systems integration for the Ares project. He's a young-earth creationist. I have little faith in the engineering acumen of anyone who can accomplish such a massive feat of ignoring experimental evidence.

    WTF has that got to do with systems integration engineering? You can't compare eviloution pseudo science (oh I'll just replicate the creation of new genetic information adding say an infrared sensitive eye through random mutations) with engineering.

    --
    46137
  54. Re:The Air Force is right. by homm2 · · Score: 1

    Sadly, this doesn't really surprise me; I've heard similar horror stories about Marshall. They share a large amount of the blame for both Space Shuttle disasters. For Challenger, I guess you could blame Thiokol (now ATK) for their "innovative" O-ring design and for their insistence that flaws discovered with this design early on were no big deal. You can also credit many of the engineers at Marshall for finding these problems unacceptable and protesting about them, but in the end, nothing was done to fix the problem and Marshall was responsible for oversight of the SRBs. With Columbia, again, there's blame to go around, but safety issues surrounding chunks of falling foam was Marshall's responsibility. And again, there were good engineers at Marshall who knew about this problem (actually, since STS-1 everybody knew about this problem, or at least should have known) and there were people who were very concerned about it and trying to get managers to address it, but in the end, again, nothing was done. I look forward to the day when shuttle is retired and I don't have to hold my breath every time the damn thing flies, although I'm beginning to believe Ares I is not an improvement. Why oh why can't we just put the Orion on a Delta IV Heavy and call it good. It seems to me it would be much safer AND we could save tons in NRE costs. Is it perhaps that NASA has to keep all their contractors happy and give companies like ATK a slice of the pie for their SRBs?

  55. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    WOOOOSH!!!! Way to miss the whole point of his post!

  56. Re:The Air Force is right. by Entropius · · Score: 4, Informative

    It takes a modern computer far less than six days to computationally model the behavior of the large belt of asteroids between Mars and Jupiter using Newton's law of gravitation.

    If you do that, you'll see large gaps ("Kirkwood gaps") develop at radii corresponding to orbital resonances with Jupiter. These gaps take far more than six thousand years to develop.

    If you look at the asteroid belt, such gaps actually exist. If the Universe is six thousand years, how did they get there? (No credit for "The universe is young but God wanted it to look old".)

    ***

    There are celestial bodies far in excess of six thousand light years away. Anyone building spacecraft surely ought to know about them.

    Then there's the georadiological evidence that I'm not going to go into because it's less applicable to astronomy.

  57. Re:The Air Force is right. by Entropius · · Score: 1

    Obvious troll is obvious.

  58. Re:The Air Force is right. by Entropius · · Score: 1

    I don't think affirmative-action-gone-amok has anything to do with socialism, really. You can have one without the other -- affirmative action persists in areas of the economy that are very far from socialistic, and yet countries that are more socialist than the US don't have these sorts of problems.

  59. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Yeah. You loons are right. The problem with NASA is all the blacks.

    No, the point was quite clear - the problem is unsuitable people being hired and/or promoted on the basis of their race rather than ability.

    HAHAHAHA !!! Do you know how racist and stupid you sound ?

    You're the one arguing in favor of racial discrimination, which is indeed both racist and stupid.

  60. Re:The Air Force is right. by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    And yet, I have done work for various 3 gov agencies including DOD and NSA, as well as grew up part of my in the airforce (I have designed defense methods for the DOD during the 80s as well as have developed software for unique hardware back in in post 9/11 for NSA) . What I find interesting is that in the military you are NORMALLY taught to be brave enough to stand up and take credit/blame for your actions. You are not, which I am guessing means that you are not from the US DOD. THe only one ignorant was yourself doing a double posting.

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
  61. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Methinks he is referring to having outstanding evidence of the universe being much older than 6,000 - 10,000 years old yet not believing it. Personally I'd like the guy putting stuff together to believe the evidence of something having happened.

  62. Re:The Air Force is right. by carlzum · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I don't usually reply to inflammatory posts, but it's modded +4 Informative right now and I don't have mod points.

    First off, Air Force scientists may be very good, but the fact they gave you a fellowship is hardly supporting evidence. Second, just because someone has a degree from a better university doesn't mean they're more qualified for a promotion. Also, the fact that you posted as an AC and use phrases like "typical ghetto high school" makes me suspect you're not the elite DOD researcher you claim to be.

    Maybe the Air Force is a color-blind, apolitical organization and NASA's just a bunch of inept liberals, but this reads more like a rant than a compelling argument.

  63. Rockets. by dicobalt · · Score: 1

    They are so last century.

  64. Re:No abort? by Ethanol-fueled · · Score: 0, Insightful

    I may have had excellent karma two weeks ago, but I can tell you that when pro-lifers allow something like this to live (google Juliana Wetmore), It makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside.

    It's as if science is wiping God's ass rather than antagonizing him.

  65. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Being a young-Earth creationist has a lot to do with systems integration, since a person who is insane is unlikely to be very good at systems integration (or anything else).

  66. Re:Badass by haifastudent · · Score: 1

    As in, "the Chef is concerned, but the Chicken is committed." :-)

    Wally: If I promise to work like a dead pig, can I go home early?

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  67. hmm by shacky003 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Not that I know a thing about rocket science (or the science of destroying them in spectacular fashion) but --IF-- this prediction were true,
    could Nasa not come up with an alternative way of slowing the capsule down, such as gliding in some way? Maybe even use shape charges
    to blow debree/bits-o-exploding-rocket away from the capsule? -- A bit like fighting (uncontrolled) fire with (controlled) fire..

    Again, I don't claim to know anything about anything.. Just typing random thoughts..

    1. Re:hmm by greyhueofdoubt · · Score: 1

      It comes down to weight. The capsule is already at its limit. And basically anything you try to use will be damaged by the burning SRB debris which burns at around 4000 degrees F.

      http://images.spaceref.com/news/2009/fratricide.report.pdf

      -b

      --
      No offense, but I've stopped responding to AC's.
  68. Re:The Air Force is right. by Kjella · · Score: 1

    If you do that, you'll see large gaps ("Kirkwood gaps") develop at radii corresponding to orbital resonances with Jupiter. These gaps take far more than six thousand years to develop. If you look at the asteroid belt, such gaps actually exist. If the Universe is six thousand years, how did they get there? (No credit for "The universe is young but God wanted it to look old".)

    Interesting, didn't hear about that one before. Of course, even if you ignore everything about fossils, genetics and evolution there's about a zillion more examples that the world is older than 6000 years, like tree rings, glacier layers, sediment layers, stalagmite caves and so on. We got perfectly good models of how the grand canyon or ayers rock was formed, just not in that timeframe. Young earth creationists are discarding the book of science because we're quibbling over the footnote on page 547, with an approach to history that'd be criminal in other context. It's pretty much like saying "Well, you haven't proved where prisoner 3523453 ended up so Holocaust didn't happen" and expect to be taken seriously. And my apologies to Godwin.

    --
    Live today, because you never know what tomorrow brings
  69. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Insightful

    Racism is not a philisophical notion nor a matter of semantics - when we talk about racism we are not talking about "distniguishing between humans who have characteristics commonly associated with a particular genetic heritage". The racism that affirmative action is designed to counter is the generally observed and well established (if in sociological terms rather than biological) pattern of discrimination against visible minorities based on stereotypes that have socioeconomic (and generally classist and xenophobic) components. Affirmative action is an attempt to sever the links between class and race by creating a population of erstwhile "visible minorities" that have all the traits of all classes as a counter-weight to the prevailing stereotypes, thereby weakening their utility, both as shorthand for bigots and as examples for other members of the respective minority. This is a clumsy way to solve a social ill but think of it this way: if you had to start an otherwise fair race against someone who has both a headstart and great confidence that they deserve to win, how fair can the race be? This is about solving a large scale societal problem - getting lost in the bickering about whether affiormatibve action is "racist" is something best left to xenophobic republican racist evangelicals, nto persons of even modest intellect and a modicum of decency, as I'm sure all the Slashdotters must be.

  70. This isn't the only technical problem with Ares I by homm2 · · Score: 4, Informative

    This is only the latest in a long line of technical problems with Ares I, to say nothing of all the delays, cost overruns and other management issues.

    First, they discovered an oscillation issue from the SRB that could cause damage to the upper stage and the orion capsule. Last year, they found out that with a slight wind gust, the vehicle might collide with its launch tower.

    Incidentally, both of these problems and the current one are all related to the SRB. President Obama needs to do the right thing here and kill Ares I before it has the chance to kill anyone.

  71. This looks like a job... by cvtan · · Score: 1

    for Mythbusters. I can hardly wait for the YouTube video.

    --
    Sorry, but gray text on gray background is making my eyes bleed.
  72. IHBARSITP (was Re: IANARS but...) by SETIGuy · · Score: 1

    I've been pointing out this for quite a while. Despite the advantages of sitting on top of the stack, there still are, and will probably always be, certain flight phases where an abort is less than 100% survivable. A full minute is significantly longer than I expected for early boost. But there are probably significant times later in flight where aerodynamic forces make the reversal following an abort maneuver problematic.

  73. Already being done its called the Falcon 9 by voss · · Score: 2, Insightful

    A liquid-fueled, multi-stage rocket and their dragon capsule uses an ablative shielding?

    While Ares I is years off, spacex has already successfully tested the first stage of the Falcon 9 and are on schedule for a Falcon 9 launch later this year,
    and a Falcon 9-heavy which will be able to do most anything Ares I can do cheaper and safer will be launched in 2010.

    Its one company, and one guy running the company with his own money for a hell of a lot less than the Ares I.

    http://www.spacex.com/falcon9_heavy.php

    Unlike NASA they learn from their mistakes, and dont put politics before safety and reliability.

    Also because its liquid fueled you can shut off the damn rocket at T-0:00

    Yes they have already launched Falcon 1 rockets and used those rockets as the basis for updating the designs
    of Falcon 9 and Falcon 9-heavy
     

    1. Re:Already being done its called the Falcon 9 by Lehk228 · · Score: 1

      But if it's liquid fueled you can't funnel money to Senator Orrin Hatch's district in the production. that will never do.

      --
      Snowden and Manning are heroes.
    2. Re:Already being done its called the Falcon 9 by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

      Except 3 of the 5 Falcon I launches have failed. And odds are the first Falcon 9 will fail too. The good news is that's fairly typical with 'rocket science' Though 3 failures in 4 like the Falcon I rarely leads to launch #5 in the past 25 years (actually I think you have to go back about 40 years or so to see that kind of managerial acceptance of a learning curve.

      --
      Our founding fathers removed the guys in charge. Be American. Vote incumbents out.
    3. Re:Already being done its called the Falcon 9 by voss · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Launch #1 failed completely
      Launch #2 failed due to problems with the second stage
      Launch #3 failed due to less severe errors
      Launches 4&5 were complete successes

      Do you see the progession here? Failure is treated as a learning opportunity, you learn more from trying and failing than trying once and giving up. In spacex the engineers run the show and the guy paying the bills accepts that.

      Falcon 9 rocket engines are revisions of falcon 1 engines which are themselves evolutions of Apollo era technologies, no reinventing the wheel here, just building better wheels

    4. Re:Already being done its called the Falcon 9 by confused+one · · Score: 1

      They were starting from scratch with a new design, not an upgrade of an existing one. New rocket design. New engines. New avionics. They're also working without a corporate mindshare of experience to fall back on, excluding those individual folks they've managed to hire away from Boeing, Lockheed, Rocketdyne, etc... Failure(s) during the first couple of launches of a new design are, historically, on par.

  74. Re:The Air Force is right. by 0123456 · · Score: 1

    This is a clumsy way to solve a social ill

    No, giving people jobs because of their race is not clumsy... it's outright, blatant racism.

  75. Gambling anyone? by Hojima · · Score: 1

    100% chance? That's almost a 99% chance! Quick place your bets!

    (be gentle mods, I thought this was funny)

  76. Re:The Air Force is right. by ravenshrike · · Score: 1

    Oddly enough, the countries you describe tend to be either highly homogeneous and/or much much older than the United States. Affirmative action is merely a race-based socialist scheme.

  77. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    How did racism get into a post about the Air Force and NASA??? And it's spelled M-a-n-n-e-q-u-i-n ....idiot. Please, do us all a favor and don't reproduce.

  78. The same NASA by p51d007 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    That said a small leak in the solid rocket motor O-ring seals wasn't anything to be alarmed about. The same NASA that said we've seen foam strikes on the shuttle for years without any problems, so don't worry about it. NASA has a problem, too many politicians control nasa instead of "missile men".

    1. Re:The same NASA by solitas · · Score: 1

      >> The same NASA that said we've seen foam strikes on the shuttle for years without any problems, so don't worry about it.

      An interesting, but not updated, graphic about shuttle tile strikes:
      http://bigpicture.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/15000_shuttle_hits.jpg

      Has anyone seen anything more complete?

      --
      "It's time to take life by the cans." ~ Bender ("Bendin' in the Wind", ep. 3-13)
  79. Re:This isn't the only technical problem with Ares by NormalVisual · · Score: 1

    If it's any consolation, a lot of the engineers that are actually working on the project think it's a mess as well. A friend of mine works on the team designing the launch tower, and they're pulling their hair out over these problems.

    --
    Please stand clear of the doors, por favor mantenganse alejado de las puertas
  80. You are unambiguously WRONG by Weedhopper · · Score: 2, Informative

    This AC is unambiguously WRONG about DoD policy regarding affirmative action and equal opportunity.

    I normally ignore these racist rants from ACs but since it has been modded up as informative by unsuspecting mods, I will respond in brief.

    ALL branches of the military have policy and guidelines in place for recruiting, retainment and training of disadvantaged minorities. This is unequivocal FACT.

    These policies and guidelines are open and fully available to the general public:

    Army: http://www.aschq.army.mil/supportingdocs/p600_26.pdf
    Navy: http://neds.nebt.daps.mil/Directives/5354d3.pdf
    Air Force: http://www.e-publishing.af.mil/pubfiles/af/36/afpd36-D2/afpd36-D2.pdf
    Marine Corps: http://www.29palms.usmc.mil/base/safety/eo/pdf/EO%20Terms%20and%20Definitions.pdf

    Some of these are not the official policy/plans but are official documents that do refer to them. I'm not going to burn up the rest of my Saturday night looking wasting time responding to this AC but hope this is enough for those who might believe there is even a shred of truth to this AC's post.

    The fact that so many who have served are not aware of the existence of these policies is a testament to the policies' effectiveness. This is one of the few policy level implementations that the military has done right. By the time promotion boards roll around, it is either transparent or nearly transparent to the board members.

    I will remind those that care that the "Military" amicus brief filed by military leaders in 2003 during the Grutter vs. Bollinger (University of Michigan) was cited by the Supreme Court as being one of the strongest arguments in favor of affirmative action in higher education.

    1. Re:You are unambiguously WRONG by EdIII · · Score: 1

      With respect, Affirmative Action can never be done "right".

      It's offensive to many free thinking individuals because it's a contradiction. It attempts to solve a problem caused by individuals and corporations making determinations based on skin color and race by evaluating individuals based on skin color and race .

      I'm not supporting the AC's rant, or his assertions about the Air Force or NASA. Just that people can make reasonable statements about how affirmative action is wrong and not be racist at the same time.

    2. Re:You are unambiguously WRONG by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Affirmative Action is not just applied to according to race. Any other valid base for positive discrimination can be used like sex, sexual orientation, religion, language, origin, beliefs and ideology, age, disablity and state of health theoretically. Of course, the demands of a job often make this kind of discrimination impossible. The application of Affirmative Action to blind fighter pilots, neo-nazi Jewish community center workers and UN English interpreters who speak only Spanish would be a fun exercise for a student of law, Jack Thomson and a plausible idea for a sketch in [insert your favorite sketch comedy show].

    3. Re:You are unambiguously WRONG by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Affirmative Action is not just applied to according to race. Any other valid base for positive discrimination can be used like sex, sexual orientation, religion, language, origin, beliefs and ideology, age, disablity and state of health theoretically. Of course, the demands of a job often make this kind of discrimination impossible. The application of Affirmative Action to blind fighter pilots, neo-nazi Jewish community center workers and UN English interpreters who speak only Spanish would be a fun exercise for a student of law, Jack Thomson and a plausible idea for a sketch in [insert your favorite sketch comedy show].

      I bolded the most critical part of your post.

      "Any other valid basis for positive discrimination"!?!?!?!?!

      How the hell is that any different than Jim Crow laws?

      Because MORONS get to decide what's "valid"?!?!?!?!

      Like I said: how is that any different from Jim Crow laws?

      Both "affirmative action" and Jim Crow laws are racist manifestations of arrogance: WE know what's best, because WE'RE better than you.

      Amazing, isn't it? Liberals and the KKK have the exact same attitude towards those who they label "inferior". Don't think so? The bile liberals around here have posted about George W. Bush and Dick Cheney would make a mob of KKK members heading out for a lynching proud.

    4. Re:You are unambiguously WRONG by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Similar positive discrimination has been used in other countries as well with equally loosely defined base for the application of discrimination, say a "political will". There should be a lightweight system for discovering, defining and argumenting for or against the use of positive discrimination in particular areas of the society in the cases of quantitatively shown discrimination caused by the lack of positive discrimination so that you wouldn't have go to courts in such cases.
      Anyway, the definition of positive discrimination calls for equal level of competence for job applicants, for example. So if a certain supreme court nominee has applied positive discrimination in a way that distorts this equation, she made a trivial mistake which should be amended.

  81. I wouldn't want to be on the ground either by hamburgler007 · · Score: 1

    I would hate to be under a 3 mile cloud of shit burning and hitting the ground.

    1. Re:I wouldn't want to be on the ground either by MurphyZero · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Look at the video from the Delta II failure back in 1997 that happened about 10 seconds above the pad and realize there were people in the blockhouse right near the launch pad. No casualties, but that was the last launch with people in that blockhouse. That early in the launch and I don't think it was 3 mile wide...only 1-2 miles at most.

      --
      Our founding fathers removed the guys in charge. Be American. Vote incumbents out.
  82. Re:The Air Force is right. by Weedhopper · · Score: 2, Insightful

    If the Universe is six thousand years, how did they get there? (No credit for "The universe is young but God wanted it to look old".)

    ***

    There are celestial bodies far in excess of six thousand light years away. Anyone building spacecraft surely ought to know about them.

    I'm sorry, but it's you who doesn't understand.

    For a creationist, biblical literalist, or whatever you want to call them, "God made the universe 13.5 billion years old at the moment of creation." is an acceptable answer. Logic and rational thinking ceases to have any meaning ceases to have any merit in an argument with someone who can accept this as a reasonable answer on this point.

    My suggestion to you is to not bother yourself. You will not change their minds any more than they will yours.

  83. Re:The Air Force is right. by Profane+MuthaFucka · · Score: 2

    Goodness, I hadn't realized the racist conservative map of humanity was so fucking SOPHISTICATED.

    --
    Fascism trolls keeping me up every night. When I starts a preachin', he HITS ME WITH HIS REICH!
  84. Re:The Air Force is right. by Kartoffel · · Score: 1

    I currently work at MSFC and do things with evolutionary computation. To stay on the safe side in mixed company, I tend to avoid the "e" word altogether. Generally even the most hardboiled YEC's can accept analogies with "selective breeding" and "hybrid vigor".

    Besides bible-inspired woo, I've also run into a few Electric Universe people at Marshall. Takes all kinds.

  85. possible solutions by sjames · · Score: 1

    There may be simple solutions to this. First, fire the escape mechanism, then order the rocket to self destruct AFTER the astronauts are clear. It appears that the Air force example didn't do that (since there were no astronauts to protect). The most common reason to order the destruct would be a guidance failure, that is, it's deviating from it's programmed trajectory. At that moment, fire the escape system. Rocket continues rising (in the wrong direction, but generally up). Then blow the rocket up.

    Another option would be nice, but might require significant re-design. The abort procedure is to ignite the second stage and arc away from the booster. If necessary, the lower segments of the booster might be separable as well to reduce it's thrust so the second stage can get away.Then destroy the booster. Since the second stage cannot make it to orbit, NOW fire the escape rockets and then destroy the second stage once the astronauts are clear. This will not work for the Ix since it's second stage is a dummy.

    1. Re:possible solutions by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

      That is exactly NASA's currentl design and what the Air Force was examining. The study was for the Ares I, not the I-X with no astronauts.

      --
      Our founding fathers removed the guys in charge. Be American. Vote incumbents out.
    2. Re:possible solutions by sjames · · Score: 1

      When I said no astronauts, I meant that the Air force did NOT have humans aboard the rocket that they destroyed. That was the basis of all of this. The Air Force was forced to destroy a solid fueled rocket early in it's flight. At least they got a real world example of what conditions that creates. That was (obviously) not an Ares I.

      They are extrapolating from that real data what might happen to the crew of an Aries I that gets destroyed.

      Looking at the full report linked to from spaceref, they appear to be assuming that the escape system and destruct are activated all at once. I'm saying that perhaps the escape rockets should be fired at first sign of trouble, then after a delay the rocket is destroyed giving it a few seconds to accelerate away from the crew capsule. That scenario is NOT included in the Air Force report. That's not to say that the Air Force report is worthless. It does provide a nice analysis of a similar event to an Ares I destruct and so gives an idea of how large that delay should be.

    3. Re:possible solutions by greyhueofdoubt · · Score: 1

      Your scenario would be like setting off a bottle rocket from the hood of a racecar. During the time window in question, the SRB is accelerating very quickly. The capsule would launch, and the SRB- pushing even less weight- would accelerate further, destroying the capsule. Arcing the capsule away wouldn't solve the problem because the SRB would be traveling fast enough to put the capsule directly into the path of the nozzle. You are talking about trying to move a heavy capsule's vector from the longitudinal axis of the SRB to a vector around 45 degrees from the l. axis; Nothing we have today could create that kind of delta-v without weighing too much or killing the crew (you would need to travel at least 200 feet from speed=0 in the time it takes the SRB to pass the capsule).

      And like I mentioned before, weight is a primary factor here.

      -b

      ps- here's a good report in case you haven't already read it: http://images.spaceref.com/news/2009/fratricide.report.pdf

      --
      No offense, but I've stopped responding to AC's.
    4. Re:possible solutions by sjames · · Score: 1

      Evidently, NASA's plan IS to accelerate the capsule in an arc to the side, otherwise why have the escape rockets at all? Thus, it must be at least plausible to do so as I suggest. Similar maneuvers are done with fighter jets where they have a lot less room to clear the vertical stabilizer or die and they do so with the pilot in the seated position (rather than the reclined position) relative to the thrust.

      So it's like firing a rather powerful bottle rocket from the hood of a racecar at 90 degrees to it's direction of travel.the idea is to continue thrusting while the rocket is passing. It needs to be more than 125 horizontal feet (not a conversion error!) away by the time the tail of the rocket passes. See the annotated photo at the bottom of page 7 in the document you referred me to. Note that in the Air Force scenario, they have destruct order at MET=42.0 and by MET=45.0, they assume main chute deployment (yes, just 3 seconds after the escape system fires).

      Note that even an abort at 1000 feet has 7 seconds to get under the chute assuming no significant V0 for the capsule (basically, it wasn't going up at all when the abort was ordered). If we assume the rocket accelerates at 3G and the capsule is in free fall, it will take it a bit over 4 seconds to be 1000 feet away (about how long into the flight the abort happened) and that's the disaster case (low altitude eject isn't recommended for pilots either). Higher up there's plenty of time for the capsule to fall away from the still accelerating rocket before it is obligated to deploy it's chutes or crash.

      The back of the envelope calculations look like a short delay between firing the escape system and triggering destruct will go a long way to solving the problem. Especially when you consider that the shroud doesn't share the parachute's extreme heat sensitivity.

      It really does come down to the Air Force assuming escape and destruct order occuring simultaneously and that the chutes must deploy within 3 seconds of that. Neither of those need be true.

    5. Re:possible solutions by greyhueofdoubt · · Score: 1

      You make some good points, and at this point I'm in over my head. However, as someone who regularly works on the air force's ACES II ejection seat, I have to maybe mention some pertinent data:

      -Weight with average pilot: 300 lbs
      -Assumed airspeed of fighter aircraft: 500 mph
      -The rocket/catapult section weighs ~21 lbs (included in gross weight)
      -peak acceleration 12g's

      I've had a long day and I'm too tired to scale up the math to Ares-proportions. However I'm pretty sure that the thrust-weight ratios and acceleration impulse caused by a scaled up 21 lb thruster won't come even close to what the crew pod would require. Please correct me if the air force and I are wrong (and lord knows the air force can be spectacularly wrong sometimes), but I don't think the ejection seat->crew capsule comparison holds water.

      Honestly, at the end of the day, I trust the PhD's' opinions over random /. comments. I've flown enough air force aircraft and lived to have a pretty healthy respect for air force (read: contractor) science.

      -b

      --
      No offense, but I've stopped responding to AC's.
    6. Re:possible solutions by sjames · · Score: 1

      The primary comparison is that like the ejection seat motor, the escape rocket doesn't have to cover a huge amount of distance, the travel of the plane/rocket will move it away from the human crew. The escape rocket only needs to move it horizontally to avoid contacting the rest of the vehicle or the exhaust plume. The still thrusting Ares will take care of the rest.

      The escape motors make half a million pounds of thrust (according to Wikipedia for whatever that's worth). According to the same page, the crew module will weigh 19,000 pounds. Granting a generous 600 pounds per suited astronaut that's another 3600 pounds. It should pull about 22G. That means it will be clear of the plume in about 0.7 seconds (leaving several seconds to spare).

      The Air Force is right to invite NASA to do the calculations again and be quite sure. Even better, they provide some valuable real data points from a comparable event. Note in the document, they also show the capsule clearing the exhaust plume, just not the propellant fragments if it destructs at the same time the escape system fires. I'm sure they'll be delighted to know I agree :-)

      It may even be that NASA wasn't planning on staggering the events.

      The only part I disagree with is that the issue is unsolvable without a huge redesign. A delay between escape and destruct should take care of it.

  86. Re:The Air Force is right. by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

    The wing commander and the vice commander at the 45th Space Wing are both African-American. Brig Gen Bolton, http://www.af.mil/information/bios/bio.asp?bioID=9511 and http://www.patrick.af.mil/library/biographies/index.asp

    --
    Our founding fathers removed the guys in charge. Be American. Vote incumbents out.
  87. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    yeah, this post that I'm replying to as pretty much got it right. Being a contractor working for the Air Force (and prior military from another branch), I would have to say most of the important stuff done by the Air Force is contracted out. When it comes to war, that's why we've got 3 other military services and commercial airlines. Most likely this came from civilian contractors (probably not government civilians) and most certainly not uniformed Air Force personnel. I don't know how things work at NASA, but I suspect they are staffed primarily by government civilians. Between those two groups, I would probably expect the contractors to be a bit more correct than the government civilians.

  88. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I would submit that the systems integrator that you do not like for being a young earth creationist would take his job more seriously than your immediate boss did. Also, do not forget the NASA space program of the sixties would have been filled with church going people. Arguably one of the best times for NASA.
    Just because his religious world view doesn't whack with yours does not mean that he is a brain dead zombie not capable of doing a decent job.

  89. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm not trying to change his mind.

    I'm wishing he weren't in charge of a big piece of a large engineering project where the lives of people rely on the ability to examine data unencumbered by prejudice and superstition. His young-earth creationism is a data point that shows that, in at least one area of space science, he can't.

  90. Re:The Air Force is right. by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

    I don't have many bad things to say about current NASA engineers. Not a lot of good, but little bad. NASA managers on the other hand...I attribute both Shuttle failures to the managers and basically so do the accident investigation boards. NASA Management is responsible for the mess that is Ares. Griffin for Ares existing at all, and many levels of management for the current messes.

    --
    Our founding fathers removed the guys in charge. Be American. Vote incumbents out.
  91. Does Study Delete Launch Abort System? by cmholm · · Score: 1

    The Air Force's study is based on a real world example, a Titan IV with strap-on SRBs, one of which failed spectacularly. Based on my reading of the "report", in reality a short slide set, I believe the analysts neglected the Orion LAS, and assumed the crew capsule follows the same ballistic arc as the burning fuel debris.

    The launch abort system (ideally) imparts an added 5 seconds of forward velocity to the capsule, which I'd hope/think would be enough to pull the crew beyond the ballistic path of the shell of debris.

    --
    Luke, help me take this mask off ... Just for once, let me butterfly kiss you with my own eyes.
    1. Re:Does Study Delete Launch Abort System? by confused+one · · Score: 1

      What was published does not look like the complete study... The published report does not completely address the LAS but does make mention of using ejection seat analysis code to model the LAS system. I personally would like to see more detail on the LAS flight parameters myself. What the model does do is show that, based on this Air Force analysis, that the Orion would be decending through a cloud of burning solid fuel fragments; and, based on their analysis, they believe the Orion will not clear the burning fuel fragments, resulting in melt of the parachutes in the recovery system.

  92. Re:Made up data Real life ( Wait. What? ) by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

    Do you have a reference for his statement? Not doubting you, in fact I believe that he probably did say it. I just want to see the quote and any additional information. Hanley was also quoted as saying the likelihood of an Ares failure was about 1 in 3000 (see Orlando Sentinel or Florida Today) which is complete nonsense.

    --
    Our founding fathers removed the guys in charge. Be American. Vote incumbents out.
  93. Re:Made up data Real life ( Wait. What? ) by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

    Ignore what I said about the reference. I saw the comment in the article.

    --
    Our founding fathers removed the guys in charge. Be American. Vote incumbents out.
  94. Destruct of Solid rocket boosters by tnewt · · Score: 2, Informative

    Speaking as someone who was once in the industry, you don't have to blow up the solid rocket booster. All you have to do is 'vent' it. The way range safety works (or at least how it worked in my day) is that there is a predetermined area that the rocket must stay in during its flight so that if all propulsion is shut off it won't land anywhere where there are people. If the propulsion is still applying thrust, then all bets are off--it could land anywhere including in a crowded city. Thus the destruct system only has to shut off the propulsion, under command when it is noticed that the rocket is heading out of the range safety area. It is burning and thrusting out one end, so blow a hole in the other end or along the side and it no longer has any directional thrust. Solid rocket boosters get a bad rap. They did not explode during the Shuttle disaster. I repeat, they did not explode. Look at the old videos. Because of the O-ring issue, they sprung a leak of flame, which ignited the liquid fuel, which exploded. After the explosion, the now free solid rockets flew off in random directions, after which, I assume, the distruct command was initiated to vent them so that there would be no net thrust, as I explained above. They -never- exploded, even after the liquid fuel exploded right next to them--they kept right on working. Solid rocket boosters are much, much safer than liquid fuel. The only issue is that you can't shut them off. But you can vent them in an emergency which has the same affect.

    1. Re:Destruct of Solid rocket boosters by tnewt · · Score: 1

      The myth of the exploding solid rocket boosters exploding during the Challenger disaster is so strongly believed, even by many of the posters here, that I decided to post the video (assuming Slashdot allows this to go through): http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j4JOjcDFtBE At 1:40 right after the explosion, you see the still functioning solid rocket boosters take off in two different directions. Considering all the passion shown in these posts against solid rocket boosters, I think you should watch this video a few times. Sometimes it is hard to get over strongly held emotional beliefs. Think about it, every rocket hobbyist is using mini-solid rockets! Can you imagine them playing around with liquid fuels?

    2. Re:Destruct of Solid rocket boosters by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

      Eventually, the rockets start heading toward land and the Flight Control Officers active the destruct system which unzipped one side of the rockets. By that point the rockets had very little propellant left. The big concern over solid rockets is early in flight when large amounts could fall back to land and deflagrate (not detonate) 100000 lbs of propellant impacting land at terminal velocity would likely cause a significant overpressure wave (bigger than any the Mythbusters have tried). SRB starts with over 10 times that amounts.

      --
      Our founding fathers removed the guys in charge. Be American. Vote incumbents out.
  95. Re:Made up data Real life ( Wait. What? ) by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

    Do you have a reference for his statement? Not doubting you, in fact I believe that he probably did say it. I just want to see the quote and any additional information.

    Here's an earlier similar quote, from June 7:

    http://m.floridatoday.com/news.jsp?key=218238

    But NASA says new supercomputer analyses will prove the Ares I launch abort system would do its job, propelling the Orion crew module and astronauts safely away from a dangerous maelstrom of fire and debris during an emergency.

    "We feel we have a very, very, very safe first stage. Very reliable," said Jeff Hanley, manager of NASA's Project Constellation, which is developing Ares rockets and Orion spacecraft in an effort to replace retiring shuttles and to ultimately carry astronauts to the moon by 2020. "We think we have a very robust design for the abort environment."

  96. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Hmmm ... NOT giving jobs to people because of their race is not clumsy... it's outright, blatant racism.

  97. Commentary at NASA Watch by FleaPlus · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Of course, most of these comments are made pseudonymously and should be therefore be taken with a grain of salt, but they're still quite interesting:

    http://www.nasawatch.com/archives/2009/07/ares_doubts_con.html

    Sources report that Steve Cook and his team were preoccupied on Friday with the ramifications of this report going public. Several meetings were held on Friday and another was planned for Saturday morning. Lots of finger pointing and asking questions along the lines of "who knew what and when did they know it?" and "how do we respond?" was reported to have happened on Friday. A briefing is being prepared for NASA Administrator Bolden for presentation as early as Monday.

    http://www.nasawatch.com/archives/2009/07/usaf_orion_crew.html

    When people at MSFC tried to discuss this in 2007/2008 "Niki the aborts manager" shut them down and made sure two most vocal left the group.

  98. It shouldn't be dangerous! by turgid · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Space flight needs to get to the stage where it is not dangerous. It should be routine and boring and reliable.

    1. Re:It shouldn't be dangerous! by Fumus · · Score: 1

      Because we all know how no one gets hurt while driving a car. Or just walking during winter.
      If they knew how to make a rocket-science level undertaking on a grand scale perfectly safe, I'm sure they would do it already.

    2. Re:It shouldn't be dangerous! by turgid · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Because we all know how no one gets hurt while driving a car. Or just walking during winter.

      No, but we have made these activities safe enough that they are routine, boring and reliable.

      There is no such thing as 100% safe. The only way to guarantee not being hurt by a car, for example, is to avoid them completely. That would be ridiculous.

      My point is that NASA doesn't seem to be taking safety seriously enough. Political considerations seem to be more important to them. NASA should be making steps forwards in safety. To do otherwise is simply crazy and morally wrong.

    3. Re:It shouldn't be dangerous! by icebrain · · Score: 5, Insightful

      We don't know how to make it safe or routine yet. In my mind, that's justification to spend the money and figure it out. Unfortunately, too many people think high-efficiency engines, advanced lightweight structures, and durable thermal protection systems just materialize from thin air at some unspecified date in the future, and therefore we should just sit back and do nothing till they appear.

      It doesn't work like that. Reliable, cheap space access doesn't just happen. You need to work on it first, and too many don't understand that.

      Imagine if, in 1909, the world had collectively decided to stop building new airplanes and just wait until something like the 747 came along. We sure wouldn't have reliable aviation.

      --
      The meek may inherit the earth, but the strong shall take the stars.
    4. Re:It shouldn't be dangerous! by ockegheim · · Score: 1

      The kudos in being an astronaut is commensurate with the risk. People remember Columbus for crossing the Atlantic, but not John Doe crossing it in a 747. I think there would be plenty of people willing to risk their lives to be among the first people to walk on Mars. People risk their lives in the army for a decent income and medical care.

      --
      I’m old enough to remember 16K of memory being described as “whopping”
    5. Re:It shouldn't be dangerous! by Jeprey · · Score: 1

      No risk can ever be zero. Ever. And space flight will never be as safe as everyday activities, ever.

    6. Re:It shouldn't be dangerous! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It will never be routine or boring.

    7. Re:It shouldn't be dangerous! by kestasjk · · Score: 1

      Compared to Apollo the Shuttle really was very safe. The safety of it is largely why so few people take an active interest in it, and saying that it's still not safe enough is a bit of an insult to NASA, which have a remarkable record of around 2 accidents in 120. People can ride an enormous explosion into Earth orbit, and a wave of plasma back down, and still rate their chances of death at less than 2%. In Apollo it was more like 15%.

      --
      // MD_Update(&m,buf,j);
    8. Re:It shouldn't be dangerous! by turgid · · Score: 1

      Compared to Apollo the Shuttle really was very safe....saying that it's still not safe enough is a bit of an insult to NASA

      But I'm talking about Ares I, not the Shuttle. NASA has a golden opportunity here and it looks like they're wasting it with that SRB.

      2 accidents in 120 was pretty pathetic anyway. Neither of those particular accidents could have happened with the Saturn V, so in a sense the shuttle was a step backwards in those instances. The shuttle was nothing like the step forward it could have been. But I'm not blaming NASA for that one. I'm blaming the politicians.

      Hopefully this new guy in charge of NASA will sort things out.

  99. No they don't by MichaelSmith · · Score: 1

    Solid rocket motors, however, tend to "go to hell all of a sudden" in a rather spectacular way. "Sucks to be you" is really their only failure mode.

    The challenger SRBs worked perfectly with a leaky O ring. Solid motors can't explode because their fuel only burns at the surface. Liquid fuel can turn into explosive if it becomes an aerosol. Solid rocket motors are about the simplest motor you can make. They are very reliable.

    1. Re:No they don't by Painted · · Score: 1

      Solid motors can quite certainly explode, in fact it is their preferred method of failing. From the wikipedia article on Solid Rocket Boosters: "SRB failure rates are about 1%. They usually fail in sudden, catastrophic explosions due to case overpressurization."

      --
      http://marsandmore.com - Posters of space, spacecraft, and astronomy.
  100. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Since his "religious world view" is, quite literally, insane, it doesn't matter how seriously he takes his job. A lunatic isn't likely to do a good job, however hard he tries.

  101. Fire, vibration... by cynvision · · Score: 1

    Those silly rockets haven't changed one bit!

    --
    "I got it all together but I forgot where I put it."
    1. Re:Fire, vibration... by cynvision · · Score: 1

      I guess my mom's flippant reaction to my saying there's only a few Shuttle missions left was right? She said there'd be more. In big-picture view, NASA has done okay with the Shuttle. They get their wake-ups and they scramble to show they're a responsive and responsible government agency. Admittedly, the pre and mid launch abort systems on Shuttle hasn't been tested "live" at a launch(and I hope it isn't ever,) but if they had to ditch the rocket portion during ascent they're in a better location attached to the side. You just got to hope the wings don't burn or break off and that the pilot is conscious and able to get his hands on the controls sometime before hitting the ocean. It would be interesting to poll what system the astronauts would like to use.

      --
      "I got it all together but I forgot where I put it."
  102. Calling SpaceX, you got Merlin ready? by jameskojiro · · Score: 1

    I am thinking that it may be a good time to start buying stock in Space-X.

    Liquid 1st stage is always a better option as you can throttle the danged thing a lot better than the solid pocked which is pretty much start and hope to god it works all right.

    I think that a liquid 1st stage built from space-X would be a whole heck of a lot safer and less vibration for the crew and in the case of abort the engines can be stopped letting the escape rocket system pull the capsule ahead of what burning debris of the liquid rocket is left...

    A Delta IV or Atlas whatever may work if they really want to keep their solid booster rockets as those are used today wuith pretty good success, not man-rated though, but probably safer than the roman candle that is the Ares-I.

    So are there any plans for a fall back?

    --
    Tsukasa: All I really want, is to be left alone...
    1. Re:Calling SpaceX, you got Merlin ready? by BiggerBoat · · Score: 1

      I am thinking that it may be a good time to start buying stock in Space-X.

      Good luck... they're privately held ;-)

    2. Re:Calling SpaceX, you got Merlin ready? by MtViewGuy · · Score: 1

      There has been some suggestions from the Obama Administration that the Ares I be dropped in favor of either the Delta IV Heavy (Delta 9250H) or Atlas V 551/552 launch vehicles instead. I believe both vehicles in their current designs can lift the Orion spacecraft to low Earth orbit.

  103. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Department of the Army Affrmative Action Plan:

    http://www.aschq.army.mil/supportingdocs/p600_26.pdf

    Air Force Affirmative Action Plan:

    http://www.ng.mil/jointstaff/zc/eo/docs/06AAPExample.doc

    Success of the US Army's affirmative action plan (from 1995):

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/special/affirm/stories/aaop031595.htm

    The United States Army and all other military branches do indeed have affirmative action and do apply it. You have to qualify for the promotion based on whatever other criteria is set, but then they use guidelines based on eligibility pools to promote minoriy and women officers. And it works - it's perhaps the most successful affirmative action program in the entire US.

  104. Re:The Air Force is right. by mindstormpt · · Score: 2, Funny

    Of course it's socialism's fault! Are you crazy, what else could it be!? And universal healthcare breeds terrorists!

  105. It's been done by cirby · · Score: 1

    One of the NASA designs from long ago had a "parachute" made of stainless steel cloth that slowed the capsule during reentry...

  106. Time for science by metamatic · · Score: 1

    This would be due to the capsule being surrounded until ground impact by a 3-mile-wide cloud of burning solid propellant fragments, which would melt the parachute. NASA management has stated that their computer models predict a safe outcome.

    I see a simple solution: get NASA management to climb into an Ares themselves and demonstrate, if they're really that confident.

    --
    GCHQ Quantum Insert installed. If only our tongues were made of glass, how much more careful we would be when we speak
  107. Re:The Air Force is right. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    The armed services ... promote solely on the basis of merit.

    As a former member of the armed services, I find that hilarious.

    GP didn't specify what "merit" means in the armed services.

    However the US armed forces measure "merit", they're pretty much unique in the US government in that race, color, and sex are NOT in the mix. At least nowhere near as much as in the rest of the government.

    Today's biggest racists can be found on the left of the political spectrum. How about liberal Democrat Barbara Boxer recently not getting an answer she liked in a hearing, so she said, "You know, other blacks think the correct way."

    Just look at the current Supreme Court nominee: "OMG! That test didn't result in enough blacks getting promoted! Toss it!"

  108. Simple answer? by blind_abraxas · · Score: 1

    Someone has probably mentioned this but I can't be arsed to look at everyone else's comments:

    What do you bet NASA didn't do their conversion to metric right in their computational modeling?

    --
    one two three four five ?!! That's the combination on my luggage!
  109. Solid Rocket motors make excellent weapons. by wonderboss · · Score: 1

    Rugged.

    Long shelf life.

    Tend to explode on impact.

    What more could you ask for

    --
    more cowbell
  110. AA/EO in the military by Weedhopper · · Score: 1

    Without understanding the manner in which the policies and guidelines that I am talking about are applied, I cannot take you seriously.

    The trouble here is that you are having a knee jerk reaction to what you think is an inherently flawed system, without having put any thought into how such system can be applied without "evaluating individuals based on skin color and race."

    The question that needs to be asked, evidently one which you have not asked yourself, is "in what way can disadvantaged groups be assisted without lower standards of evaluation?" If your first and only reaction is not "Impossible! That's racist!" then you will find ways in which this IS possible.

    I suggest you read, familiarize and otherwise educate yourself about the issues to which I am speaking before trying to lecture me about what I do and don't know.

    1. Re:AA/EO in the military by EdIII · · Score: 1

      Without understanding the manner in which the policies and guidelines that I am talking about are applied, I cannot take you seriously.

      Seems pretty simple to me. I'm purple. You're yellow. Yellow is favored over purple for whatever reasons and justifications.

      Regardless of what you say, or if you take me seriously, skin color is being used as a determining factor. That is an undeniable and inarguable fact. I find categorizing people based on skin color for any reason flawed. Deeply flawed.

      The trouble here is that you are having a knee jerk reaction to what you think is an inherently flawed system

      I don't think it is. It is inherently flawed because it uses racism to somehow "balance" racism out. Two wrongs don't make a right in this case.

      You say that if I simply "think" about how it could be applied without racism that I would arrive at some miraculously intuitive answer in which racism is not being used. I can't possibly see how. Why don't you explain to me how racism is not being used?

      The question that needs to be asked, evidently one which you have not asked yourself, is "in what way can disadvantaged groups be assisted without lower standards of evaluation?" If your first and only reaction is not "Impossible! That's racist!" then you will find ways in which this IS possible.

      Huh? Look, at some point in this evaluation process skin color IS a determining factor. You seem to be trying to "put a lipstick on a pig". You can beat around the bush and try this eloquent dance, but ultimately racism is being used. It's just that it is justified as being for the greater good and the bigger picture and all that good stuff.

      Why don't you cut the bullshit and the suspense. No offense, but your flowery prose does not serve your arguments or this thread. Just get to the point, please. How IS Affirmative Action possible without racism? Meaning, skin color is never a deciding factor.....

      I suggest you read, familiarize and otherwise educate yourself about the issues to which I am speaking before trying to lecture me about what I do and don't know.

      My statement that Affirmative Action is racist is not a product of ignorance about these issues. It's a simple logical statement. Affirmative Action uses racism to achieve it's goals, therefore it is racist.

      Your suggestion that it can be done right implies that racism can be used as a tool for good, which I flatly deny. It's not a lecture, just a statement of absolute fact.

      However, since you seem to be so aware of these issues, why don't you try to convince me that Affirmative Action:

      1) Is not racist. Meaning, that it never uses skin color and race as a determining factor for anything.

      or

      2) It is racist, but it's really for the greater good and here is why.

      What I WILL LECTURE YOU ABOUT is this:

      When somebody is told that they did not get advancement, or employment because of Affirmative Action, and that somebody less qualified or less deserving did they:

      A) Understand that there was a good reason for it and that society is better served by this outcome ultimately and that their sacrifice is leading towards a better world...

      or

      B) Understand they just got shafted because they were born the wrong color. Not because they did not study hard enough and get good enough grades. Not because they did not work longer hours to ensure that their projects succeeded, their clients were satisfied, etc. They got shafted because of something entirely outside of their control. The color of their skin.

      I'm leaning towards B. That seems a realistic reaction don't you think? How would you feel? You don't think Rosa Parks felt that way on the bus? How many scores of African Americans felt despair, frustration, and anger when the only thing holding them back was the color of their skin?

    2. Re:AA/EO in the military by Weedhopper · · Score: 1

      I'm going to try to be a nice guy.

      One, I didn't bother reading most of your post. I only skimmed it to see if you picked up on the essential point, but it's fairly clear you didn't.

      The primary focus of the affirmative action plan of the US Army and other branches is on recruitment, retainment and training.

      Evaluation standards are not altered, for anyone of any race.

      So to me, you clearly could not be bothered to learn about the specific subject on which you're writing.

    3. Re:AA/EO in the military by anomaly · · Score: 1

      I'm ignorant about the impact from a military perspective, but I can speak from a personal one. There were several large employers around my hometown. I applied for positions with them and was not offered a position with any of them. I spoke with a man who was employed with one of them, and he let me know that it was an "open secret" that only 30% of hires could be of a particular race (mine) due to affirmative action.

      What did I do? Sue? Cry? Curse the darkness? No. I moved to where the number of employers was large enough that my skills were easily sold to the highest bidder. Thus launched my migration away from my family and into a pretty successful career.

      Can I prove it was racial discrimination? Nope.

      Do I believe that it was a factor in HR's decision? Yes.

      Was it wrong to discriminate against me on the basis of skin color? Yes.

      At the end of the day, unless you want to lose your mind, you need to accept that things are what they are and be like the internet "route around problems." There are consequences, but to live as a victim was not on the list of choices I found acceptable.

      Just my 0.02

      Anomaly

      --
      But Herr Heisenberg, how does the electron know when I'm looking?
    4. Re:AA/EO in the military by EdIII · · Score: 1

      I'm going to try to be a nice guy.

      So what does that mean? Does having to confront racism in Affirmative Action upset you? You make that sound a little condescending.

      One, I didn't bother reading most of your post. I only skimmed it to see if you picked up on the essential point, but it's fairly clear you didn't. --- primary focus of the affirmative action plan of the US Army and other branches is on recruitment, retainment and training. --- could not be bothered

      You still have not answered the question. Does skin color have *anything* to do with recruitment, retainment, and training?

      That's a simple yes and no answer. You can continue to claim that I am willfully ignorant, but you are definitely dodging the question. From someone that is seemingly sophisticated and well educated about this specific subject it is interesting that you still refuse to answer this one specific question: IS SKIN COLOR A DETERMINING FACTOR?

      I see your problem. Once you say yes, which is the only logical answer, then you have to accept that the argument now becomes why is skin color a determining factor in a process that is designed to remove such behavior from our society. Does it really serve society in the end? How does impact those that would otherwise be recruited, retained, and trained if there skin color was different? Does favoring certain skin colors over others ultimately cause more damage then it was meant to prevent?

      Try answering the question instead of continually claiming I am ignorant. You possess the correct answers right? Well then give me a YES or a NO. Thank You.

  111. Air Force has experience with this failure mode... by argent · · Score: 1

    Early abort for a liquid fueled rocket is pretty spectacular as well, but it's hard to beat this fireworks show with a failure in a USAF solid booster (17 foot crack in the booster let go all at once) (another cut of the same incident).

  112. Re:Badass by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    No, when you have ham and eggs for breakfast, the chicken is involved but the *pig* is committed.

  113. Re:The Air Force is right. by db32 · · Score: 1

    No, no, no...it is entirely on merit. I have seen people get promoted based on how well they can service the members...

    However, in all fairness, I have seen WAY worse promotion systems than the military. And while I believe Mr. "ghetto high school" is an ignorant tool that doesn't know what he is talking about, the Air Force was also the first branch to desegregate and actually has a pretty strong history of breaking down that whole race thing. In fact, the people who were opposed to desegregation were kindly shown the door. They also make a pretty big deal out of promoting the history of the Tuskegee Airmen.

    --
    The only change I can believe in is what I find in my couch cushions.
  114. Solid vs liquid rockets by DragonHawk · · Score: 3, Informative

    "100% liquid fuel was always the right way to do. Loose the solids..."

    When someone says "solid rocket" most people think of Challenger. The problem there was that the rocket was operated in conditions outside of design specifications. Liquid fuel rockets tend to fail when pushed beyond their limits, too. I've certainly seen plenty of footage of both types exploding.

    I asked about this question to an actual rocket scientist not long ago. My take was that liquid fuel seems safer because you can control it off after ignition. His response, in part: "Offhand I know of at least several cases of a liquid fuel engine going 'BOOM!' and everyone being surprised." Apparently many of the failure modes don't allow for any warning; it just explodes before you can do anything. Further, reportedly, simply "turning off" a rocket engine in flight is not as simple as it sounds; the dynamic loads are complex, and doing it wrong can cause the vehicle to break-up. He said that solid rockets are typically more reliable than liquids, because of their simple design. Liquid fuel motors are very complex, and thus cost more to make, and to make reliable.

    He also described an aspect of flight dynamics: Rockets launched vertically go through two phases. The first is overcoming the force of gravity to get it airborne; the second accelerates it downrange and into orbit. Solids lend themselves towards the first phase, because they have a high trust-to-mass ratio. In the second phase, propellant efficiency matters more, and then liquid engines are a win.

    He did say that the choice of a solid rocket for the first stage of Area was driven entirely by time and cost constraints. There's no way NASA could have designed and tested a liquid-fuel rocket motor of sufficient thrust and reliability within the time and money allotted.

    Now, this is just one guy's take, so I'm not accepting it as ultimate truth. But he knows more than I do.

    I, too, have a rather romantic vision of the Saturn V, but given that it was only launched about a dozen times, I'm not sure how realistic that vision is.

    --

    dragonhawk@iname.microsoft.com
    I do not like Microsoft. Remove them from my email address.
    1. Re:Solid vs liquid rockets by TheTurtlesMoves · · Score: 1

      You can't throttle them and you can't turn them off, and yes liquids are not all candy, but the SSME are the *worst* example. You do get some warnings ergo the Saturn could and did turn engines off in flight and continued with the mission. Also they have significantly better performance. Honestly, unless you are a missile (aka storable) the need for solids nill (unless you missed your weight budget). Its got nothing to do with romantics...

      Also those boosters are *not* cheap.

      --
      The Grey Goo disaster happened 3 billion years ago. This rock is covered in self replicating machines!
    2. Re:Solid vs liquid rockets by DragonHawk · · Score: 2, Interesting

      You can't throttle them and you can't turn them off

      I've already responded to that in another message. Yet you continue to repeat a statement you know to be, at best, questionable. This makes me wonder what other facts you might be ignoring.

      Also they have significantly better performance.

      From what I'm told, liquid-fuel rockets have better propellant efficiency, but solid-fuel rockets have better thrust-to-mass ratios, as I explained. But by all means, continue ignoring what I'm saying; that really helps your case.

      You do get some warnings ergo the Saturn could and did turn engines off in flight and continued with the mission.

      No argument there. That's also happened pre-launch for the shuttle SSMEs, and one of the Gemini missions.

      However, liquid rockets also blow up more often than solid rockets, or so I'm told. Hell, even STS-51-L's SRBs kept flying after the ET had blown to bits; they were detonated by the RSO. If it wasn't for the big ass fuel tank right next to them, the O-ring burn-through wouldn't have been a problem. ("Other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play?")

      I'm not convinced that the benefits of solid rockets outweigh the drawbacks, but I'm willing to have an information discussion about it. Are you?

      Also those boosters are *not* cheap.

      The shuttle SRBs ain't free, but the SSMEs make 'em look downright cheap in comparison.

      ... the need for solids nill ...

      I was talking to an actual rocket scientist who worked for Boeing corp. What are your qualifications, if I may ask? Are you just another armchair engineer, as I am myself?

      --

      dragonhawk@iname.microsoft.com
      I do not like Microsoft. Remove them from my email address.
    3. Re:Solid vs liquid rockets by Muad'Dave · · Score: 1

      ...because they have a high trust-to-mass ratio...

      My trust-to-mass ratio is pretty close to unity - I'm very trustful, but also rather massive. Some would say Rush Limbaugh has a very low trust-to-mass ratio. 8-(

      --
      Tiller's Rule: Never use a word in written form that you've only heard and never read. You will end up looking foolish.
    4. Re:Solid vs liquid rockets by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      ...because they have a high trust-to-mass ratio...

      My trust-to-mass ratio is pretty close to unity - I'm very trustful, but also rather massive. Some would say Rush Limbaugh has a very low trust-to-mass ratio. 8-(

      Don't you mean "trustworthy" rather than "trustful"? "Trustful" would imply you are "full of trust" or have an abundance of trust. This isn't necessarily a bad thing, but not something most would admit to on slashdot. In constrast "trustworthy" means you are worthy of other people's trust. IMHO this makes your comment more sensible given the forum and comparison you use.

  115. Re:Made up data Real life ( Wait. What? ) by confused+one · · Score: 1

    Interesting that. I believe the Air Force study compared both Titan and the Challenger, then used the Titan for the purposes of the presentation. So, there were TWO real world examples used. The only question in my mind is what is the LAS profile and how well did the Air Force model it -- they did claim to use their ejection seat code for the analysis and that is known to be a good model of reality.

  116. Re:This isn't the only technical problem with Ares by confused+one · · Score: 1

    Let us not forget the up-mass issue. The claim is that the booster has plenty of up-mass; but, they've been cutting systems and putting constraints on the weight of the Orion in order to stay within those margins. During the Augustine Commission presentation I believe they said they currently had a 14% margin for up-mass (that's from memory; so, don't flame me). That's with a crew of 4. The claim is that the LAS is the limitation; but, what they're not saying is that they can't increase the capability of the LAS without increasing it's mass and cutting into the current margin. They designed the LAS knowing what the capabilities of the booster are, and what limitations that would put on the capsule. It's a circular argument that conveniently hides the issues at hand... The point is, the vehicle appears to not have the capability to do what it was commissioned to do: Reliably and safely lift a crew of 7 into LEO.

  117. RSO protocol by DragonHawk · · Score: 1

    The Range Safety Officer can't let it just crash back to the ground. The stark reality is that in the event of a guidance failure the RSO's job is to activate the destruct system. Although the lives of the astronauts might be lost, the lives of hundreds of people on the ground take precedence. And no, there isn't really going to be time to determine which way the rocket is going. In the time it would take to figure that out, Cocoa Beach could be a flaming inferno.

    It appears the RSO has more latitude in the performance of their duties than posts here would suggest. On STS-51-L (the Challenger's last flight), the RSO saw the evidence of explosion and initially thought to recommend no action. It was only once the SRBs appeared to re-stabilize in flight that destruct was recommended. You can read the RSO's statement here:

    http://books.google.com/books?id=A3REsJuW2yEC&lpg=RA3-PA185&ots=G8HM7ELnVo&pg=RA3-PA185

    --

    dragonhawk@iname.microsoft.com
    I do not like Microsoft. Remove them from my email address.
  118. Summary Is Wrong by E++99 · · Score: 1

    The report does not say that an abort will be fatal any time within the first minute. It says that an abort will be fatal any time between 30 and 60 seconds. Aborts before 30 seconds are survivable -- although it says that aborts between 20 and 75 seconds are still in the danger area. The variable in question is dynamic pressure. Between 20 and 75 seconds dynamic pressure is over 3 psi. Between 30 and 60 seconds dynamic pressure is over 5 psi.

  119. Re:The Air Force is right. by ShakaUVM · · Score: 1

    It takes a modern computer far less than six days to computationally model the behavior of the large belt of asteroids between Mars and Jupiter using Newton's law of gravitation.

    If you do that, you'll see large gaps ("Kirkwood gaps") develop at radii corresponding to orbital resonances with Jupiter. These gaps take far more than six thousand years to develop.

    If you look at the asteroid belt, such gaps actually exist. If the Universe is six thousand years, how did they get there? (No credit for "The universe is young but God wanted it to look old".)

    Well, there you go. It took you less than six days. =)

  120. So? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I'm unhappy at this blind spot in the abort cycle. But it's my understanding that had this happened on the Saturn V it didn't look good for survivability. Certainly if it happened on the shuttle it would probably not be survivable and NO ONE wanted to test the Gemini abort option (ejection seats). Wally Schirra declined to abort on Gemini 6 when it shut down, Manned space flight is DANGEROUS and the ONLY time the program had fatalities is when they allowed themselves to forget it.
    Stacy Brian Bartley

  121. Nuclear reaction by gutaf · · Score: 2, Informative

    I understand that you are referring to an atomic bomb....but in reality the nuclear rocket can easily be stopped, restarted, throttled, and is self moderating (To the End of the Solar System: The Story of the Nuclear Rocket). It is very unlikely that the nuclear rocket would face this failure mode.

    As an aside the specific impulse of the nuclear rockets designed and tested in the 50's and 60's achieved well over 800 s. This is nearly twice that of the ~450 s that is the theoretical maximum of the H2 and O2 solid rocket designs.

    In fairness the reliability of the reactor core of the nuclear rocket achieved in the 50s and 60s was not outstanding, but they made incredible progress. Also the nuclear rocket was typically only considered for missions that started in Low Earth Orbit is. As a shuttle from LEO to the moon and mars and such.

  122. Re:The Air Force is right. by multi+io · · Score: 1

    My doctoral dissertation focused on algorithms for tracking multiple objects (i. e., missiles) flying in the air. By contrast, NASA is a highly political organization. It hires on the basis of affirmative action. An African-American with a degree from Texas Southern University (which is barely better than a typical ghetto high school) will be promoted before an Asian-American or a European-American with a degree from Caltech.

    Do you have any real evidence for that? Having written a dissertation for the Air Force is less than anecdotal. All NASA administrators except for the current one have been white males, as have been most of the astronauts including all moonwalkers, and most other key people. That does not refute your allegations, but it calls for some stronger evidence.

  123. FUCKING STUPID by chris.evans · · Score: 1

    Why not a space plane, doesnt have to be big, but a flightdeck/sleeping area, cargo bay, and a emergency module that can pop out of a dock in the hull, takes off like a plane, lands like a plane, has rockets for egress of the atmosphere and moon shot, and return home, reenter and land like a plane!!!

  124. Move the launch pad! by ebvwfbw · · Score: 1

    I have no idea why we continue to use a launch pad that is at sea level! This is such a stupid idea. They could launch in Denver and be literally 1 mile higher and save all that fuel. It is actually quite substantial. Just an idea guys!

    1. Re:Move the launch pad! by rantingkitten · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Launching from Florida lets them take advantage of the rotational speed of the Earth -- it's closer to the equator, Earth's widest spot, and just like the outer edge of a record moves faster than the inner part, so it is with Earth. The speed boost is enormous.

      Launching from Florida also gives them the ability to ditch into the ocean if necessary, instead of into a city.

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    2. Re:Move the launch pad! by ebvwfbw · · Score: 1

      I did the math on that back in the 1980s when I was in college. You are a whole lot more ahead by launching in Denver. 28-17 vs 39-51 parallel. About 10 degrees further North latitude. Less than the magic 45-00. In the end if memory serves me, it was a matter of 50 MPH (out of a target of around 17,000 MPH depending on altitude). It wasn't much. OTOH, you save all that fuel to lift stuff 1 mile up, literally. One of my physicists friends said changing the trajectory east bound would more than make up for that 50 mph. To us it was a no brainer.

      Back then it was a matter of Florida having the facilities. However today they have eliminated many of those launch pads. KSC is a relic of the 1960s and should be retired.

  125. Re:No abort? by Footsienabackyard · · Score: 1

    She has more life than you'll probably ever have...

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  126. much easier forty years ago, but not 42 years ago by hardcache · · Score: 2, Informative

    Summary of Apollo I investigation: The thorough investigation by the Apollo 204 Review Board of the Apollo accident determined that the test conditions at the time of the accident were "extremely hazardous." However, the test was not recognized as being hazardous by either NASA or the contractor prior to the accident. Consequently, adequate safety precautions were neither established nor observed for this test. The amount and location of combustibles in the command module were not closely restricted and controlled, and there was no way for the crew to egress rapidly from the command module during this type of emergency nor had procedures been established for ground support personnel outside the spacecraft to assist the crew. Proper emergency equipment was not located in the "white room" surrounding the Apollo command module nor were emergency fire and medical rescue teams in attendance. There appears to be no adequate explanation for the failure to recognize the test being conducted at the time of the accident as hazardous. The only explanation offered the committee is that NASA officials believed they had eliminated all sources of ignition and since to have a fire requires an ignition source, combustible material, and oxygen, NASA believed that necessary and sufficient action had been taken to prevent a fire. Of course, all ignition sources had not been eliminated. The Apollo 204 Review Board reported that it took approximately 5 minutes to open all hatches and remove the two outer hatches after the fire was reported; that the first firemen arrived about 8 to 9 minutes after the fire was reported and that the first medical doctors did not arrive until about 12 minutes or more after the fire was reported. Thus there was not expert medical opinion available on opening the hatch to determine the condition of the three astronauts although medical opinion based on autopsy reports concluded that chances for resuscitation decresed rapidly once consciousness was lost and that resuscitation was impossible by the time the hatch was opened. It is clear from the Board's report and the testimony before the committee that this kind of accident was completely unexpected; that both NASA and the contractor were completely unprepared for it despite the amount of documentation of fire hazards in pure oxygen environments. The committee can only conclude that NASA's long history of successes in testing and launching space vehicles with pure oxygen environments at 16.7 p.s.i. and lower pressures led to overconfidence and complacency. The Apollo 204 accident was a tragic event in the nation's space program. Because of it there has been a thorough analysi and review of all aspects of the Apollo program. Consequently many changes have been made in the Apollo system design, operations, management, and procedures and NASA expects this will result in an improved spacecraft and booster system. The committee's review of the accident found nothing which would make the committee question this expectation. It is the committee's hope that the remainder of the program will be carried out with greater understanding and dedication than if there had been no accident. The total impact of the Apollo 204 accident on the Apollo program is not yet known. In continuing its close surveillance over the Apollo program, your committee will be especially mindful of the impact of the accident on program schedules and cost, and on the effectiveness of the changes in management and operations made by NASA during the past several months.

  127. Test Pilots by hardcache · · Score: 1

    After projects Mercury and Gemini capsule size increased to seat 3 pilots for the Apollo project's moon mission. The first Apollo disaster was significant because it was a crew of 3. Three pilots were on board all Apollo missions: Commander, Command Module Pilot, and Lunar Lander Pilot. Most of these pilots were from test pilot programs. Media was there for both the significance of the first manned mission to the moon as well as the height of the cold war and the internal political and external diplomatic ramifications of a successful moon shot. Later space programs launched the first civilian scientists and engineers.

  128. Re: actually “~100%” by Duggeek · · Score: 1

    There's still a slim chance, even if it is 1:10^12... that was good enough for the Millennium Falcon.

    Spaceflight has never been a safe operation... never! It was never easy either, but back when it was new, people paid attention.

    Ever since the years when a Shuttle was launching every few months, people just don't think of it as "new" or even say "wow" anymore. It just "what NASA's doing".

    What's most appalling about this predicament is the thinking going into it; it's like 1972 all over again. We're so busy lighting-off explosives that we're discounting the (best and brightest) people that are on top of that sophisticated powder-keg. Maybe that's why we were so attentive and fascinated in 1972... life was on the line should any little thing go wrong. Those guys were truly national heroes.

    It pains me to say it, but I'm doubtful that NASA's thinking will not change until we have another Challenger disaster.

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  129. I wonder at which point... by lie2me · · Score: 1

    ...best solution would be to fly crew in safer manner (perhaps using SpaceOne?)
    and dock the GIANT DEATH TRAP later.

  130. Absurd by toyotabedzrock · · Score: 1

    I find this all absurd. It's likely that it will take us more than 50 years to get back to the moon, we should be ready to be on mars by now! And it's likely that Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin will have passed away before we get back! All this money they spent on just reusing the shuttles engines is insane. They should have designed a rocket that doesn't need a solid booster, and one that has fool proof protection for the astronauts. Here's my idea 1. Place the parachutes near the tail of the rocket so expensive liquid rocket nozzles are not damaged. 2. 1-2" thick steel plate to protect the crew capsule, make it an inverse cone so it will help throw the capsule away from any explosions. 3. Your not climate police your rocket engineers, stop wasting your money on satellites that you can't even get safely into orbit.

  131. Range safety ordinance vs thrust venting by DragonHawk · · Score: 1

    "In fact the SRB's on the shuttle have exactly this feature, and were used in the Challenger disaster when the SRB's appeared to be heading towards land."

    You're thinking of the range safety destruction ordinance. That's something completely different.

    The range safety charges are strategically-placed explosives, designed to cause the vehicle to break-up into (relatively) safe fragments, upon remote command. On the shuttle SRBs, they're basically a long strip along the entire length of the rocket, and peal it open like splitting a soup can along the seam. They were indeed used on STS-51-L.

    http://books.google.com/books?id=A3REsJuW2yEC&lpg=RA3-PA185&ots=G8HM7ELnVo&pg=RA3-PA185

    Thrust venting is more like a shutdown. If the shuttle SRBs have thrust venting, it would involve blowing a hole open in the top of the SRB stack, so that the propellant thrust escapes equally from top and bottom.

    Thrust venting doesn't inherently destroy the vehicle. Of course, if used in flight, loss of propulsion means gravity takes over, which usually doesn't end well for a rocket. But it can (in theory) also be used before liftoff, to cancel the effect of premature ignition.

    Pretty much every rocket launched by NASA or US DOD has range safety charges. I'm not sure if it's "law", but it's certainly mandated at a lower level if not. I'm sure Ares has such, too.

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    1. Re:Range safety ordinance vs thrust venting by MurphyZero · · Score: 1

      Actually the range safety charges do NOT go down the entire length of the Shuttle SRB. They are not present on the aft segment, which might cause a definitely unsafe fragment, at least early in flight, which of course is about the only time people might be in danger. NASA is supposedly going to fix that mistake with the Ares.

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  132. Re:The Air Force is right. by rubycodez · · Score: 1

    That solves no ills at all, but increases racism as incompetents hired solely on the basis of race (or gender or war veteran status or any other parameter not linked to ability) are burdensome on employers and co-workers alike.

    Your notion of racism is entirely philosophical. And a stereotype that is 80% or more accurate is a useful generalization.

  133. Interesting. Thanks for the info. (N/T) by DragonHawk · · Score: 1

    Ah. Interesting. Thanks for the info.

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