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White House Panel Seeks Input On Spaceflight Plans

Neil H. writes "The Augustine Commission, commissioned by the White House and NASA to provide an independent review of the current US human spaceflight program and potential new directions, is seeking public input on a document describing the preliminary beyond-LEO exploration scenarios they're analyzing. The destination-based scenarios, designed with NASA's current budget in mind, range from a Lunar Base (essentially NASA's current plan), to 'Mars First' (human exploration of Mars ASAP), to 'Flexible Path' (initially focused on several destinations in shallow gravity wells, such as Lagrange points, near-Earth asteroids, and the Martian moon Phobos). The Commission is also seeking input on the issues of engaging commercial spaceflight, in-space refueling, and coordinating human and robotic exploration."

224 comments

  1. Probes. Lots of Probes. by eldavojohn · · Score: 4, Funny

    So I figure we build a few thousand probe droids with solar sails and sling shot them around the sun and send them aimed at planets of all nearest solar systems. I've got some basic plans drafted up. Couple hundred years from now the first will be hitting Alpha Centauri and although we may all be dead, the footage they send back will make for some bitchin opening movie scenes.

    --
    My work here is dung.
  2. Generational Ship by i_ate_god · · Score: 1

    send up a noah ark-esque mission to the nearest solar system and back.

    --
    I'm god, but it's a bit of a drag really...
    1. Re:Generational Ship by T+Murphy · · Score: 3, Funny

      send up a noah ark-esque mission to the nearest solar system and back.

      You missed the memo: the whole point of space exploration is to find a way to permanently get rid of our lawyers*, politicians and telemarketers. Having the thing come back would defeat the entire purpose.

      *NYCL would be out of a job in a world without lawyers, so he's exempt.

    2. Re:Generational Ship by Shakrai · · Score: 3, Insightful

      the whole point of space exploration is to find a way to permanently get rid of our lawyers*, politicians and telemarketers

      I thought we had firearms and pitchforks for that?

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    3. Re:Generational Ship by MozeeToby · · Score: 5, Insightful

      It all comes down to one thing: What's the point?

      The cost would be massive, 10%+ of the worlds GDP for several decades just to get the thing built and stocked. The risks would be huge, we know next to nothing about the kinds of things that could go wrong with such a plan and the risks we do know about are already significant. And the payoff? Next to nothing. Certainly there would be no economic payoff, even if we were able to establish a colony (and there's about a thousand ifs that would need to be fulfilled for that to happen) there would be no way to set up any kind of trading system over those kinds of distances. Not leaving a colony behind is even less cost efficient, you're basically consigning generations of people to strict rationing and constant danger for the purpose all to be able to look and see what's going on the next star system over (hint: probably absolutely nothing).

      No, there's only two ways that ark ships will be built.

      One is if we have advanced warning of a catastrophe so horrible that spending a significant portion of the worlds wealth and resources just to save a few thousand people is preferable to actually trying to solve the problem. I can't even think about what that kind of catastrophe could be, in order to build an arkship you're going to have to be able to move and mine asteroids so that's out. Anything that would disrupt the inner solar system would still leave semi-habitable environment inside the solar system at less risk than sending an arkship into the unknown.

      The second is if the society of Earth persecutes a group to the point that they want to leave, while paradoxically giving that group the wealth, technical knowledge, and political influence to make such a project happen. I just don't see that happening, unless the singularity really is near, and the kind of power and technology to make an arkship happens becomes commonplace.

    4. Re:Generational Ship by mcgrew · · Score: 2, Interesting

      You missed the memo: the whole point of space exploration is to find a way to permanently get rid of our lawyers*, politicians and telemarketers.

      The politicians ARE lawyers. That's why normal people can't understand the laws.

      NYCL would be out of a job in a world without lawyers, so he's exempt

      He's my third favorite lawyer, right behind the lady I hired to handle my divorce and the man I hired to handle my bankrupcy. When you need a lawyer, you NEED a lawyer.

      Lawrence Lessig comes in a close fourth. I was pissed that he screwed up the SCOTUS copyright case, but after reading his book (available online for free, or at your local library or bookstore) I realized that he's fighting the good fight, even if he did lose a major battle.

    5. Re:Generational Ship by Shakrai · · Score: 1

      He's my third favorite lawyer, right behind the lady I hired to handle my divorce and the man I hired to handle my bankrupcy. When you need a lawyer, you NEED a lawyer.

      I see your bankruptcy and divorce attorneys and raise you a criminal defense attorney who got my name cleared of a felony I didn't commit :)

      Lawyers can be a real PITA at times and I think they have too much influence in Washington (how many Congress-critters are lawyers?) but you are absolutely right: When you need a lawyer, you NEED a lawyer. I suspect that the people who always complain about them have never needed the services of one.

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    6. Re:Generational Ship by CecilPL · · Score: 1

      You missed the memo: the whole point of space exploration is to find a way to permanently get rid of our lawyers*, politicians and telemarketers. Having the thing come back would defeat the entire purpose.

      Don't forget the hairdressers and telephone sanitizers.

    7. Re:Generational Ship by T+Murphy · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Don't worry- my dad is putting his law degree to good use as an FBI agent putting corrupt politians in prison, so I realize how lawyers can do good. The bad ones just make it too easy to pick on the group as a whole.

    8. Re:Generational Ship by Hatta · · Score: 4, Insightful

      One is if we have advanced warning of a catastrophe so horrible that spending a significant portion of the worlds wealth and resources just to save a few thousand people is preferable to actually trying to solve the problem.

      The Sun will be going red giant in just 5 billion years. That's plenty of time to prepare.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    9. Re:Generational Ship by Em+Emalb · · Score: 1

      you're basically consigning generations of people to strict rationing and constant danger for the purpose all to be able to look and see what's going on the next star system over (hint: probably absolutely nothing).

      Ah, but what if you're wrong? What if, one star system over, they're having a MASSIVE keg party and people are getting naked in the hot tub?

      What if?

      (Why yes, my glass *is* half full today. I guess that means I need a smaller glass.

      --
      Sent from your iPad.
    10. Re:Generational Ship by mR.bRiGhTsId3 · · Score: 1

      I also think the bad ones are the ones that have a tendency to go into politics.

    11. Re:Generational Ship by PitaBred · · Score: 2, Insightful

      So, lawyers, hairdressers, politicians and marketing people go on the B ark, and the engineers and scientists and such on the A ark? Let's launch the B ship first, because they're that much more important...

    12. Re:Generational Ship by geckipede · · Score: 1

      Most of the catastrophes so horrible that they are unpreventable also give very little warning. Rogue black holes or gamma ray bursts are the two that spring immediately to mind here, but there might be others that we have no idea how to prepare for because the hazard is coming from something incredibly dangerous that we haven't invented yet.

      Since this is slashdot, perhaps the best analogy here would be offsite backups: you don't only make them when you can see a disaster coming.

    13. Re:Generational Ship by hypergreatthing · · Score: 1

      hmm...
      sending a colony/ark ship is nice, only if you know where your sending it to. It would be silly/foolish to not plan where to go. Space is the place to explore and to start getting ourselves into. Unlimited resources, more room, more possibilities. Once the economic hurdles of getting into space get overcome, everything else is not a problem.

    14. Re:Generational Ship by PitaBred · · Score: 1

      There are lawyers, and there are ambulance chasers. It's a common meme to say "kill all lawyers", but it's mostly in frustration with the current lawsuit-happy culture that a number of lawyers are more than willing to take their fee from. Don't forget... criminal and civil law are significantly different. Civil lawyers are WAY overpopulated. We need to cut off some of the lawsuit supply (fix copyrights/malpractice/tort law), at least cull a bit of the herd somehow.

    15. Re:Generational Ship by TheMeuge · · Score: 2, Interesting

      1. The ultimate payoff is the eventual ability to spread beyond the solar system. In the grand scheme of things it's the most important long-term survival strategy for mankind.
      2. The proximate payoff are the myriad of technologies we would develop for building the stupid thing, which would have a direct and measurable impact all over the world... and would have an even greater impact on our relationship with the rest of the solar system.
      3.

      The second is if the society of Earth persecutes a group to the point that they want to leave, while paradoxically giving that group the wealth, technical knowledge, and political influence to make such a project happen.

      Jews?

    16. Re:Generational Ship by Mitchell314 · · Score: 1

      RAIC? (Redundant Array of Inexpensive Colonies)

      Maybe way way way waaaaaaay down in the future. Mars/Moon (our moon) couldn't be a bad first step.

      --
      I read TFA and all I got was this lousy cookie
    17. Re:Generational Ship by Shakrai · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Don't forget... criminal and civil law are significantly different. Civil lawyers are WAY overpopulated. We need to cut off some of the lawsuit supply (fix copyrights/malpractice/tort law), at least cull a bit of the herd somehow.

      I think we need to cull them out of Congress. Has anybody stopped to wonder why Congress is so good at passing mandates that are completely impractical in the real world? I tend to think it would do us some good if the people writing our laws included more engineers/doctors/law enforcement/technology/business/etc people and less lawyers. Lawyers are entirely too good at coming up with solutions that look great on paper and completely suck in the real world.

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    18. Re:Generational Ship by Capt.DrumkenBum · · Score: 3, Funny

      "The bad ones just make it too easy to pick on the group as a whole."
      As someone once said "98% of lawyers give the rest a bad name."

      --
      If I were God, wouldn't I protect my churches from acts of me?
    19. Re:Generational Ship by Gilmoure · · Score: 1

      Hasn't worked yet. They breed like cockroaches!

      --
      I drank what? -- Socrates
    20. Re:Generational Ship by kalirion · · Score: 1

      Don't forget the hairdressers and telephone sanitizers.

      Heh, first thing that went into my mind when I read GP.

    21. Re:Generational Ship by The_Duck271 · · Score: 1

      Establishing a viable colony in another start system would be an almost infinite payoff, in that the long-term prospects of the human race would be vastly improved. That said, we aren't even close to being able to build a starship, let alone terraform an exoplanet.

    22. Re:Generational Ship by boris111 · · Score: 1

      So, lawyers, hairdressers, politicians and marketing people go on the B ark.

      What did hairdressers ever do to you?

    23. Re:Generational Ship by dkleinsc · · Score: 1

      Oh, that's easy. Once you send a ship to Alpha Centauri, the game ends and you win!

      --
      I am officially gone from /. Long live http://www.soylentnews.com/
    24. Re:Generational Ship by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I thought we had firearms and pitchforks for that?

      Nope. They've managed to make them illegal in many states, with growing support. Few states don't already have clearly unconstitutional gun laws on the books and they seem to continue to get worse over time.

    25. Re:Generational Ship by PachmanP · · Score: 1

      What did hairdressers ever do to you?

      Have you SEEN his haircut?! There's a reason he only uses slashdot.

      --
      You're thinking small. Why miniaturize the laser, when we could instead enlarge the sharks? -John Searle
    26. Re:Generational Ship by rleibman · · Score: 1

      Don't forget the telephone sanitizers and tired tv producers.

    27. Re:Generational Ship by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

      1. The ultimate payoff is the eventual ability to spread beyond the solar system. In the grand scheme of things it's the most important long-term survival strategy for mankind.

      I, for one, would prefer that we try and preserve womankind as well!

      But in all seriousness, we need to consider whether that goal actually has a worthwhile payoff. Inter-system "colonies" are not practical as a survival mechanism. We could not communicate with the "colony", and they have no motivation -nor mechanism - for preserving our history, our achievements, our ethics. They would need to genetically adapt to their new planet, which effectively means that when earth is lost, humanity itself will be lost.

      A far better approach (if one is needed) is to preserve our DNA in a safe, and bootable form - Off world, if need be. In the event of a extinction level disaster, an off world ark swings by and at the appropriate time, re-seeds the earth with all the genome that was lost in the disaster. This is much closer to being achievable then trying to keep LIVE copies of humans (AND all other species) on another planet or in space somewhere.

      Or we can simply accept our own mortality as a species. There is no shame in that.

      2. The proximate payoff are the myriad of technologies we would develop for building the stupid thing, which would have a direct and measurable impact all over the world... and would have an even greater impact on our relationship with the rest of the solar system. 3.

      Of course, the same claim has been made about human space flight in the past, and the resulting useful technology has been effectively zip (TANG excluded of course). Perhaps if we have an actual technological NEED (e.g. better housing or energy generation) we should develop for the need instead.

    28. Re:Generational Ship by dkf · · Score: 1

      The Sun will be going red giant in just 5 billion years. That's plenty of time to prepare.

      There's a fair chance that the Earth will only remain habitable for another 500 million years. Of course, that's roughly as long again as there's been vertebrates on Earth, so it's still not very urgent...

      --
      "Little does he know, but there is no 'I' in 'Idiot'!"
    29. Re:Generational Ship by JuzzFunky · · Score: 1

      Just don't send the telephone sanitizers away or we will all die from an infectious disease contracted from an unsanitized telephone!!!

      --
      Unexpect the expected!
    30. Re:Generational Ship by MiniMike · · Score: 1

      I heard something about, um, a giant space goat or something like that, going to eat the whole planet.

    31. Re:Generational Ship by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      You are going to die if we don't build this.... Does that make a difference to you?

      I didn't think so. Threats, although make good science fiction, do not inspire discovery.

      IMO; If we can, we should.
      And my motto; If we can't, we must.

    32. Re:Generational Ship by NateTech · · Score: 1

      Illegal or not, they're still out here. They know this.

      --
      +++OK ATH
    33. Re:Generational Ship by NateTech · · Score: 1

      Same thing with IT workers. So what? Still need to get rid of the bad ones.

      --
      +++OK ATH
    34. Re:Generational Ship by tyrione · · Score: 1

      Normal people don't understand Physics let alone the Law.

    35. Re:Generational Ship by PitaBred · · Score: 1

      Not me, but they did do something to the Golgafrincham's.

    36. Re:Generational Ship by mcgrew · · Score: 1

      You could say the same thing about programmers.

    37. Re:Generational Ship by Painted · · Score: 1

      I've always maintained that Lawyers are the larval stage of Politicians... not all of them make it, but it's where they all want to be when they grow up.

      I have also maintained that in any sane society lawyers would be barred from holding public office- it's in lawyers best interests that law be so complex the lay person cannot understand it. They should be allowed in advisory roles only...

      --
      http://marsandmore.com - Posters of space, spacecraft, and astronomy.
    38. Re:Generational Ship by Pence128 · · Score: 1

      The Apollo program and the Minuteman missile are responsible for reducing the cost of integrated circuits to that affordable by mere mortals. If it weren't for them, we would have probably pursued cheaper discrete electronics for much longer. If microcomputers were even invented by now, you would probably be using something equivalent to a Commodore 64.

      --
      404: sig not found.
    39. Re:Generational Ship by KeensMustard · · Score: 1

      Citation Needed. Every history I've read indicates that the invention of the IC was quite independent of the apollo program (happening some years before, in fact). And further - since it's inception, the IC has followed a refinement curve in accordance with Moores Law. I'd say you are repeating myth.

  3. Just plug the panel by Cur8or · · Score: 0

    into the input socket on the plans.

    --
    Winkey shortcut mapping for 64bit windows. WinKeyPlus
  4. Re:Probes. Lots of Probes. by FTWinston · · Score: 1

    Yeah well my ion drive will still beat your solar sail crap to Alpha Centauri any day. And will be many times easier to steer.

  5. Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by Man+On+Pink+Corner · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The next time we send manned missions to the Moon (or Mars), let's get serious and do it sustainably. This business of sending someone up to collect rocks and beat a path back home just for the sake of planting a flag is just lame and depressing. Take the long view, secure international cooperation and funding, and work on genuine colonization efforts.

    1. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by Shakrai · · Score: 1

      Take the long view, secure international cooperation and funding

      Because what the space program needs is more bureaucracy......

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    2. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by mcgrew · · Score: 4, Insightful

      In 1969 it was unfeasable; bringing back a few (hundred pounds of) rocks was the best we could do at the time.

      You young folks wouldn't believe how primitive things were back then. The onboard Apollo computer, for example, weighed 180 pounds and was about as powerful as the Timex-Sinclair 1000 (1 mz CPU, 2k memory). Automatic doors, cellphones, medical readouts in hospitals, space shuttles, flat screen computers, were only in Star Trek and not in real life.

      To someone my age, we're living a science fiction life.

    3. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by CorporateSuit · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The next time we send manned missions to the Moon (or Mars), let's get serious and do it sustainably.

      You don't know much about the Apollo missions if that's your opinion of it. The ultimate mission of Apollo was to build a moon base. Before we could do that, we had to be able to land on the moon, know what it was made of, if it was living or dead, and if the moon tended to shred equipment. We need to know if it was possible to land within 100 miles of a target, and more. NASA was headed to Mars in a few years with only a few billion dollars if their funding was kept up. However, a recession and an unpopular war and many political factors (including people who were shouting "What's the point?" and then not listening for an answer) drained the NASA budget and instead of being able to apply all they were learning on the moon, it just became an entry in the encyclopedia and a memory.

      --
      I am the richest astronaut ever to win the superbowl.
    4. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by Colonel+Korn · · Score: 1

      The next time we send manned missions to the Moon (or Mars), let's get serious and do it sustainably.

      You don't know much about the Apollo missions if that's your opinion of it. The ultimate mission of Apollo was to build a moon base. Before we could do that, we had to be able to land on the moon, know what it was made of, if it was living or dead, and if the moon tended to shred equipment. We need to know if it was possible to land within 100 miles of a target, and more. NASA was headed to Mars in a few years with only a few billion dollars if their funding was kept up. However, a recession and an unpopular war and many political factors (including people who were shouting "What's the point?" and then not listening for an answer) drained the NASA budget and instead of being able to apply all they were learning on the moon, it just became an entry in the encyclopedia and a memory.

      The funding cut was decided in 1966 or 1967, I believe, before we even set foot on the Moon. I think it was definitely the right choice to continue the plans as long as the reduced funding would last - there was a chance that witnessing what was arguably the human race's greatest achievement would lead to a new source of funding.

      --
      "I zero-index my hamsters" - Willtor (147206)
    5. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by FleaPlus · · Score: 3, Interesting

      The ultimate mission of Apollo was to build a moon base.

      Do you have a citation for this? My understanding is that in 1969 Von Braun proposed as a follow-on project to Apollo not a lunar base, but human exploration of Mars. Under Von Braun's 1969 plan, the first Mars manned mission would launch in 1981, with a 50-person Martian base by 1989, using reusable spacecraft and under a peak NASA budget of $7 billion a year. Of course, I suppose he may have wanted a lunar base in parallel.

    6. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by CorporateSuit · · Score: 2, Informative

      Then you'll see that Mercury's main focus was putting a man in space. Apollo's main focus was putting a man on the moon and getting him safely home (There were to be 20 Apollo missions, the goal was achieved in 11, the moon base was an extension of the Apollo mission. The Mars mission would be a different series of missions than Apollo. Apollo's mission objectives can be found on NASA's website but the specifics are usually garnered from other books, like any of those written by the astronauts -- such as Gene Cernan's Last Man on the Moon.

      --
      I am the richest astronaut ever to win the superbowl.
    7. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      talk about old: you even have a slashdot ID number less than 100000

    8. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 1

      Do you have a citation for this?

      My father was a NASA engineer on Apollo, and according to him they were actively planning for a Moon base as a follow-on, right up to the point where the whole thing got canceled. Not a clickable link, I know, but you know, personally I find it pretty strong evidence ...

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
    9. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by martas · · Score: 1

      To someone my age, we're living a science fiction life. Thank you for reminding me of that. If it wasn't for that fact, I would've abandoned all hope long ago.

    10. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 1

      The next time we send manned missions to the Moon (or Mars), let's get serious and do it sustainably.

      Damn straight! I'm raising Hell if those booster rockets aren't running on discarded restaurant oil.

    11. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      The ultimate mission of Apollo was to build a moon base.

      No, the ultimate goal of Apollo (according to the only people that mattered - those who signed the checks, that is the Administration and Congress) was to "land a man on the moon and return him safely to Earth" as part of a cold war pissing contest. NASA, on their own hook and from whole cloth, invented and popularized the idea that Apollo was intended to build a moon base and to be a precursor to Mars missions. These 'extended missions' never were well funded, and were slashed in 1967.
       
      The result of this, and NASA propaganda that didn't quiet until the early 70's, is generations of ill informed fan boys believing an utter falsehood.

    12. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by CorporateSuit · · Score: 1

      I meant ultimate as in "Final" not "Most Important" -- Considering the word has 3 terms, I suppose I could have made that more clear.

      --
      I am the richest astronaut ever to win the superbowl.
    13. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      Doesn't matter which sense you use it in - Apollo was never intended to build a moon base except in NASA's fevered hopes and dreams.

    14. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by CorporateSuit · · Score: 1

      If that were true, there would have never been an Apollo 12.

      --
      I am the richest astronaut ever to win the superbowl.
    15. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      Yeah, right. Everybody knew in 1962-63 (when the equipment was ordered), in 64-65 (when the mission was funded), and in 67-68 (when the mission was planned), that Apollo 11 would be a success. Here's a clue for you - look up when the final three Apollo missions were cut.

    16. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by CorporateSuit · · Score: 1

      The missions were cancelled after we had completed what you call NASA's "ultimate goal" twice. Your arguments that they had already paid for the equipment for the subsequent missions is incorrect, since they had paid for the equipment for all 20 missions (though Apollo 20's hardware was unfinished and scrapped)

      Besides, your orginal argument "That Apollo's mission was written by the legislature" is bogus to begin with. In that case, Gemini's ultimate goal was also landing on the moon. It wasn't. Though the legislature had the goal in mind of fulfilling JFK's prediction and beating the Soviets to the moon, they did not write the mission plans. They funded them, but they ultimately had to trust NASA to plan them, set the short-time goals to reach the long-time goals. NASA decided the goals for each mission, just as they decided the names for each mission.

      --
      I am the richest astronaut ever to win the superbowl.
    17. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by DerekLyons · · Score: 1

      The missions were cancelled after we had completed what you call NASA's "ultimate goal" twice.

      Yep, as soon as the next budget cycle rolled around.
       

      Your arguments that they had already paid for the equipment for the subsequent missions is incorrect, since they had paid for the equipment for all 20 missions

      My logic that they had paid for the hardware for all twenty missions in incorrect... because they had already paid for the hardware for all twenty missions? Either your logic, writing, or editing skills are sadly lacking along with your knowledge. (Not all of Apollo 20's hardware was scrapped either - the Saturn V became Skylab and it's booster.)
       
      At any rate, just buying the hardware is only the beginning of the outlay - because there are all the operational costs to follow.
       
       

      Besides, your orginal argument "That Apollo's mission was written by the legislature" is bogus to begin with.

      The goals of the individual missions of each Apollo spacecraft were written by NASA to meet the goals required to execute the mission for the Apollo Project as laid down by the Administration and Congress. Mission here is used in two different senses, don't confuse them. (Though I'm not surprised you do.)

    18. Re:Anything but another Apollo-style circus act by CorporateSuit · · Score: 1

      My logic that they had paid for the hardware for all twenty missions in incorrect... because they had already paid for the hardware for all twenty missions? Either your logic, writing, or editing skills are sadly lacking along with your knowledge.

      I'll chalk this up to your reading comprehension. Your argument that they had launched 6 subsequent missions because they had already paid for everything was incorrect, based on the fact they cancelled 1/3rd of the missions "ordered" for.

      The goals of the individual missions of each Apollo spacecraft were written by NASA to meet the goals required to execute the mission for the Apollo Project as laid down by the Administration and Congress. Mission here is used in two different senses, don't confuse them. (Though I'm not surprised you do.)

      Are you making this up as you go along? Where the hell are you pulling this from? Congress didn't write up "The Apollo Project" -- they had absolutely no qualifications to do so. Simply acting like you're the expert on everything doesn't change the smell of bullshit.

      --
      I am the richest astronaut ever to win the superbowl.
  6. How about "Robots Only" by nweaver · · Score: 4, Insightful

    All of the proposed plans are based on the arguably flawed assumption that humans can add significant value in flexibility over current robotic explorers. Which is clearly not the case based on experiences with the mars rovers and similar devices.

    Why can't we just admit the unpleasant: Yes, in 1969, if you wanted to explore the moon you needed a person. Now, 40 years later, you need robots and let the people sit comfortably back at JPL and Houston, safe and sound and cheaper.

    --
    Test your net with Netalyzr
    1. Re:How about "Robots Only" by hardburn · · Score: 5, Insightful

      We don't send people out there because it's easy. We do it because it's hard.

      --
      Not a typewriter
    2. Re:How about "Robots Only" by east+coast · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Because we want to get people to these destinations. The goal isn't for probes to inhabit these bodies, it's for humans to. If you take that away we've pretty much already accomplished these missions.

      Not to say that robots can't help in the near future, but it's not the reason we're doing it.

      --
      Dedicated Cthulhu Cultist since 4523 BC.
    3. Re:How about "Robots Only" by FTWinston · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Even wearing a spacesuit, I betcha I could walk up slopes and around obstacles better than the (admittedly wonderfully performing) Spirit & Opportunity rovers.

      And hopefully after a few years of doing so, I wouldn't have to crawl around ass-first all the time.

    4. Re:How about "Robots Only" by John+Miles · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Which is clearly not the case based on experiences with the mars rovers and similar devices.

      Ridiculous. Think of one of the most interesting discoveries made by the Phoenix lander -- the frozen condensate that formed on one of the landing struts. A human would have noticed that immediately and been able to analyze it in detail. Conversely, a robotic probe can do only what it's programmed to do. All we can do is stroke our beards and say "Hmm, wonder what that is?"

      When you're not only expecting the unexpected, but hoping for it, you want human boots on the ground. One human mission is easily worth twenty robotic missions.

      Hell, NASA should consider offering one-way trips. They'd have enough volunteers to crash their Web server. Most people aren't doing anything that important or interesting with the rest of their lives, are they? Send one old guy with a shovel, a microscope, and a carbon-monoxide canister, and we'll learn more than we would from the next hundred years' worth of robots.

      --
      Dahlmann tightly grips the knife, which he may have no idea how to use, and steps out into the plain.
    5. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Go back to your cave.

    6. Re:How about "Robots Only" by flaming+error · · Score: 1

      > All of the proposed plans are based on the ... assumption that
      > humans can add significant value

      Not really. The cover story says this is all about scientific curiosity regarding our universe, and maybe someday commercial mining. But lurking beneath the surface is the uncomfortable truth that life on Earth has an expiration date.

      This is about extra-terrestrial colonization. That's why we focus so much on discovering liquid water, and that's why eventually humans have to make the trip.

    7. Re:How about "Robots Only" by CannonballHead · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Why make humans go there before it's ready for humans to inhabit though?

    8. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Ralph+Spoilsport · · Score: 1
      I COMPLETELY agree.

      There is no need to send People into space. Yes, some good work was done getting people to the moon, but it wasn't until the last few missions that actual scientists got to go. I would humbly suggest that while a variety of technologies have come from manned space flight, most of the real KNOWLEDGE about the universe has come from robots, satellites, and orbiters. No human being can see as well as the HST. No human being can withstand Mars for as long as the rovers have, using the amount of resources the rovers have. I would cheerfully send 100 rovers to Mars, of greater size and sophistication, than send ONE person there.

      The usual bleatings and objections are all mythological: "it is our destiny" or some variant on that. There is no such thing as destiny. There are simply things we can and should do, things we can and shouldn't do. Sending people into space is something we can and shouldn't do. We shouldn't because of the expense, the risk, the complexity, and productivity per dollar. If we want to industrialise space, we need to apply industrial methods, and that means mechanisation where possible to eliminate labour.

      I completely agree with Mr Weaver: NASA should have a policy of robots only. The sophistication of what robots can do is growing by leaps and bounds. Heck - there's an article here on slashdot: Artificial Brain 10 years away. Even if it was 1/2 as sophisticated as the human brain, it would be more than capable enough to be dedicated to a complex robotic mission to any number of planets, moons, and asteroids. And there are "dumber" machines that are basically prosthetics for ground control that we've been using for years.

      My opinion: ditch the mythology and chest thumping nonsense, and get on with the real business of space exploration... using machines that are far more capable than people in these environments.

      RS

      --
      Shoes for Industry. Shoes for the Dead.
    9. Re:How about "Robots Only" by jackspenn · · Score: 2, Insightful
      1. The Soviets used robotics to explore moon, so you did not need humans as far back as the early 70s.
      2. Your flawed assumption fails to take into account the great advancement by sending a person, aka the coolness factor. Sending robots or whatever to wherever is not challenging enough. It lacks adventure and risk that pushes adventurer/explorer in humans.
      3. Why leave your house, why not just sit in your house, make money programming remotely, order pizza and groceries? Because seeing a picture of a flower is not the same as seeing a flower, touching it and not to mention the unexpected, like running across a bee or humming bird.
      4. To remove the adventure/explorer/risk aspect of space exploration makes not sense to me.
      5. Finally having somebody from Japan, America and Russia walk on Mars is more of a bonding experience then landing a droid built in those various countries on Mars.

      I guess my point is only people who lack vision, guts and balls only want to use robots.

      --
      Respect the Constitution
    10. Re:How about "Robots Only" by melikamp · · Score: 2, Insightful

      So what exactly is the point of sending a human to Mars? I happen to believe that humans must colonize the solar system just to survive, but why start with Mars? The Moon is much closer and offers all the same challenges.

    11. Re:How about "Robots Only" by east+coast · · Score: 1

      As I said, robots can help in the near future. Why make me repeat something that I've already said?

      --
      Dedicated Cthulhu Cultist since 4523 BC.
    12. Re:How about "Robots Only" by east+coast · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I would agree that the moon should be first. But to claim that it's the same is foolish.

      --
      Dedicated Cthulhu Cultist since 4523 BC.
    13. Re:How about "Robots Only" by nweaver · · Score: 5, Insightful

      But you can't be kept "alive" without tons and tons of support equipment....

      The infrastructure cost for humans in space is staggering. Look at just how many tons of shit needed to be put in orbit to build the ISS and keep people alive and supplied: there have been 48 manned flights and 37 unmanned flights. And thats to sustain 3 people continuously in low earth orbit.

      Do you realize just how many sattelites and autonomous scientific experiments you could put up with that much launch capability?

      And the current manned space program produces alomst NO science. Lets take the columbia's final mission, which cost 7 lives. For a pure science mission, all the scientific research could have been conducted by automated in-orbit devices (all the non-biological experiments, and most of the bio experiments on non-humans) or are predicated on human spaceflight (the bio experiments on people).

      Seven lives were sacrificed for nothing of value : they never needed to be there.

      Face it, space, for now, is not meant for fragile organic bags of mostly water.

      --
      Test your net with Netalyzr
    14. Re:How about "Robots Only" by sumdumass · · Score: 2, Interesting

      The great thing about humans is the AI factor. The (artificial) intelligence in humans is vastly superior to actual artificial intelligence of robots or computers.

      Now, you might think we we didn't have any problems in mars. But we did, we have a rover stuck in a crater, we have had rovers that were stuck before and had to alter their missions while teams of engineers and massive amounts of resources were consumed attempting to unstuck them. A human can process this basic information much such as path and determine the 3d characteristics of object in front of them much faster and better then computers and remote controls.

      In some ways, we aren't as proficient as computers and machines. The augmentation of machines and computers can greatly streamline the colonization of the moon plus allow us to refine our approach and logistics for life support. Sending humans with robots can be a means of gathering data as well as making our efforts more proficient as well as safer at the same time.

    15. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      It isn't about science. If it was about science, you'd stick all that money into an actual science--where we know will have some sort of result. No, it's about exploration and engineering challenges. Which is fine by me.

    16. Re:How about "Robots Only" by FTWinston · · Score: 1

      bags of mostly water

      You quote star trek to justify not going to space? There's a first! :)

      While my comments were meant somewhat in jest, I agree with you to a certain extent. For the purposes of poking around a few rocks on a far away world, robots are by far the more sensible option.
      For the purposes of colonisation, though, the organic bags of mostly water have it for now. Saying that, I don't think we're remotely near the position where colonising mars could be considered a sensible venture.

    17. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Ralph+Spoilsport · · Score: 1
      1. The Soviets used robotics to explore moon, so you did not need humans as far back as the early 70s.

      good for them.

      2. Your flawed assumption fails to take into account the great advancement by sending a person, aka the coolness factor.

      Cool is subjective gibberish. It used to be cool to smoke cigarettes. In some countries it still is. Do we put a smoking lounge on the Mars mission? When they get there, will they grow tobacco? Your supposed "coolness factor" does not in anyway disprove his points. Or mine, for that matter.

      Sending robots or whatever to wherever is not challenging enough. It lacks adventure and risk that pushes adventurer/explorer in humans.

      Advanced robotics is an industry still in development. comparing it to a bunch of butcherous assholes who invaded foreign mands at point of sword and smallpox in search of gold and spices is not a comparison worth making.

      3. Why leave your house, why not just sit in your house, make money programming remotely, order pizza and groceries? Because seeing a picture of a flower is not the same as seeing a flower, touching it and not to mention the unexpected, like running across a bee or humming bird.

      Because it won't be YOU going to Mars. YOUR experience of Mars would be (necessarily) a mediated one. In which case, you might as well "fake it" and pretend that its real because YOU are not going. Your argument is so clueless, it's astounding.

      4. To remove the adventure/explorer/risk aspect of space exploration makes not sense to me.

      But it makes sense to me, and just because you haven't the horsepower to puzzle it out doesn't mean that you're correct.

      5. Finally having somebody from Japan, America and Russia walk on Mars is more of a bonding experience then landing a droid built in those various countries on Mars.

      Nice. Howabout, oh, I dunno - the other 6 billion people - like in Liberia, or Ghana, or Burkina Faso or Bolivia, or Cuba, or North Korea, or Mongolia or China or the Maldives, or Tuva, or Armenia or Iran or Iraq or Afghanistan or Pakistan or India or Somalia? Or better yet, how about using the billions you would piss away on a Mars mission and get clean water to some of the place I mentioned? And maybe some decent medical treatment and educate the women. THAT would do far more to instill good will around the world than engaging in proxy wars over resources and using the third world as the battle ground.

      I guess my point is only people who lack vision, guts and balls only want to use robots.

      What your points of argument say is that only people who are arrogant, clueless, testosterone poisoned meatheads don't want to use robots. I know this isn't true, but you have not made a single convincing case for manned flight, and with ever increasing sophistication of computer technology and prosthetics, the actual case for manned flight boils down to a misguided mythological teleological notion of "destiny".

      RS

      RS

      --
      Shoes for Industry. Shoes for the Dead.
    18. Re:How about "Robots Only" by he-sk · · Score: 1

      Your point that industrializing space means relying more and more on robots is true.

      But.

      I want to go to space. I want to see the blue marble. I want to walk on the moon and on mars. If I had 20 mil lying around I'd be on the ISS right now. Screw the non-existing scientific value, the excitement of being in space is worth the cost, IHMO.

      I heard that Virgin Galactic plans to offer ballistic trips for 20 grand in the next decade. Sign me up.

      --
      Free Manning, jail Obama.
    19. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Ralph+Spoilsport · · Score: 1

      Cool - go for it - pay Virgin Atlantic to do that. We're talking NASA policy here, which needs to have the greatest information yield per dollar possible - not some rocket propelled rollercoaster ride for adrenaline junkies. That's what Virgin Galactic is for.

      --
      Shoes for Industry. Shoes for the Dead.
    20. Re:How about "Robots Only" by mR.bRiGhTsId3 · · Score: 1

      Mars is closer to earth gravity and once had an atmosphere which could conceivably make terraforming easier. Colonizing the moon would mean whoever lives there will always spend their time in giant glass bubbles.

    21. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Minwee · · Score: 1

      After a few years of walking around on Mars you would get pretty hungry. And thirsty. And you might need to change the air in that spacesuit of yours too.

    22. Re:How about "Robots Only" by FireHawk77028 · · Score: 1

      The moons gravity is too low to support any type of atmosphere, its a vacuum, mars has an atmosphere, just not breathable. I believe mars is also supposed to contain more useful minerals.

    23. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Dripdry · · Score: 1

      Keep in mind that the space station hasn't begun it's primary science mission yet. It's just now being finished. The station needs a few people up there just to keep it running. Once it is fully crewed (now, and when toilet is fixed) the science can finally begin.

      That's why there hasn't been any science coming from it. They have not been doing any!

      --
      -
    24. Re:How about "Robots Only" by FireHawk77028 · · Score: 1

      I think the current rover weighs 400lbs. If you weigh 150lbs with your suit on, that leaves 250lbs for food/water/life support for however long you are staying.. not including what you need for the 6-7 month flight. Oh, and you weren't planning on returning were you?

    25. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Crudely_Indecent · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Why not have the best of both worlds. I remember reading (over a decade ago) about a plan called Mars Direct.

      We could easily send robots and provisions for future colonization using the terms set forth in the plan.

      IM(not so)HO, this is a ploy for the Obama White House to emulate thunder created by the Kennedy White House. It's cheap and fake thunder for the sake of approval ratings.

      Apply their current success ratio to any future plan to get an idea of the likelihood for success. They should really start aiming lower so that their failures aren't so colossal.

      --


      "Lame" - Galaxar
    26. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Sorry, but a human is infinitely more capable of making deductions and observations about the environment they are in, than a robot broadcasting a feed back to home base.

      The fact that you even suggest that tells me you haven't a clue what you're talking about.

    27. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Xin+Jing · · Score: 1

      NASA did learn something. The known heat tile failure problem reached a pinnacle with the destruction of the Columbia. Afterwards, NASA had a protocol for search and recovery of a space vehicle that had been fragmented over the area of several contiguous states. Also, a procedure was implemented that required the inspection of the Shuttle exterior for heat tile damage before returing to Earth.

    28. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Bakkster · · Score: 1

      Seven lives were sacrificed for nothing of value : they never needed to be there.

      Nothing of scientific value, or maybe nothing worth the cost, but engineering/social/political knowledge is being gained with every launch, especially on international projects.

      --
      Write your representatives! Repeal the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics!
    29. Re:How about "Robots Only" by camperdave · · Score: 1

      Send one old guy with a shovel, a microscope, and a carbon-monoxide canister...

      Geez! Mars is hostile enough already, and you want to send a canister of poisonous gas along?

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
    30. Re:How about "Robots Only" by hardburn · · Score: 1

      In terms of Delta-V, as far as putting things on the surface is concerned, Mars is actually closer because you can use aerobraking. If you just want to get into orbit, then the Moon is obviously easier, but I don't think the point is to wave as we go past.

      The challenges aren't necessarily the same. The environment of Mars isn't so far off from the more extreme environments on earth (like deserts or frozen tundras), so we can test a lot of equipment right here and now. Further, with no wind to shave down its barbed edges, lunar dust is nasty stuff that sticks like velcro and probably has very bad effects on equipment and the human respiratory system.

      --
      Not a typewriter
    31. Re:How about "Robots Only" by CraftyJack · · Score: 1

      Send one old guy with a shovel

      Good luck doing that on a Scout budget.

    32. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      The infrastructure cost for humans in space is staggering.

      And yet the potential payoffs are literally unimaginable. We can't begin to imagine what's out there, and what it might mean for us. The only way we'll ever know are to get out there.

    33. Re:How about "Robots Only" by LanMan04 · · Score: 1

      At which point it will promptly be de-orbited. :)

      --
      With the first link, the chain is forged.
    34. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Spotticus · · Score: 1

      Gene Cernan and Harrison Schmitt during their 3 days on the moon during Apollo 17, accomplished orders of magnitude more work, covered more ground, provided more samples for analysis than Spirit and Opportunity have combined, during their several years on Mars. For comparison Spirit and Opportunity have traversed just under 25km on Mars over 5 years. Apollo 17 did 34 km in 3 days. Humans demonstratively add significant value and flexibility over current robot explorers. For example Spirit has been stuck in the sand since May as scientists and engineers determine the best way to get the rover out. If we had an astronaut there, Spirit would be back on its way in 10 seconds. Same with the issues with dust covering the solar panels, the rovers have been lucky that the wind has cleared them from time to time. Again an astronaut with a brush would take care of the problem in a few seconds. The question is not, do humans add significant value? The question is, is the value humans add, worth the cost. I say yes

    35. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Xin+Jing · · Score: 1

      The support network that provides you with medical food, air, water and a habitat to rest up for your next day of walking sounds a lot like a space station, base or colony. All of which exceeded the budget for the reason you are there.

    36. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Man+On+Pink+Corner · · Score: 1

      Because it won't be YOU going to Mars. YOUR experience of Mars would be (necessarily) a mediated one. In which case, you might as well "fake it" and pretend that its real because YOU are not going. Your argument is so clueless, it's astounding.

      You haven't thought through the implications of what you're saying. Why should I climb a mountain, if I can get the exact same neurochemical simulation from drugs and 3D goggles? And what will those poor benighted Africans do after your billion-dollar shipment of water arrives?

      Your approach to the future will breed an Earth full of pod people, living and dying in a sterile, cocoon-like environment that will treat both human evolution and human ambition as bugs and repair itself accordingly. Maybe they'll call it "the Matrix," or maybe they'll call it "World of Warcraft Expansion MCXVII." Either way, fuck off. The rest of us are going to do what we can to leave you behind.

    37. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Patch86 · · Score: 1

      Hell, NASA should consider offering one-way trips. They'd have enough volunteers to crash their Web server. Most people aren't doing anything that important or interesting with the rest of their lives, are they? Send one old guy with a shovel, a microscope, and a carbon-monoxide canister, and we'll learn more than we would from the next hundred years' worth of robots.

      Good news, then, that China has entered the space race! If any modern country could rustle up a suicide mission or two, it's China.

    38. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Daniel+Dvorkin · · Score: 1

      All of the proposed plans are based on the arguably flawed assumption that humans can add significant value in flexibility over current robotic explorers. Which is clearly not the case based on experiences with the mars rovers and similar devices.

      What you're describing is an experiment with no control. In other words, no, it is not "clearly not the case" that humans can do a better job than robots; the only way to find out is to send humans there and compare the results. Asserting that robots can do just as good a job as humans doesn't make it so.

      --
      The correlation between ignorance of statistics and using "correlation is not causation" as an argument is close to 1.
    39. Re:How about "Robots Only" by CorporateSuit · · Score: 1

      Space exploration has claimed 10% of its aviators.

      Exploration of the New World in the 4 voyages of Columbus lost probably 20% of their sailors (some 500 men) and half of the ships -- and the diseases they brought home killed around 5 million Europeans! Does this mean that white man was never meant to settle the Americas? Of course not. We're here. It means that exploration and colonization is dangerous. Those 500 sailors were killed in a hurricane. "Don't sail your ships into a hurricane." is the lesson there. For Challenger, the lesson was "Don't use sub-par equipment when sending people into space, and beware groupthink." The lesson for the 5 million dead Europeans? "Practice safe sex, especially with civilizations who have unknown diseases."

      The moral dilemma lies with "Is it worth it?" -- Was the death of 500 men, the genocide and slavery of the American people, and the suffering and death of 5 million Europeans an acceptible payment so I can own a house in California today? If you want to debate that, you will find many challengers. Whether we were meant for space exploration? Our supernatural drive to do so seems to say "Yes."

      --
      I am the richest astronaut ever to win the superbowl.
    40. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Sparklepony · · Score: 1

      It's also really hard to balance a pyramid of 144 live scorpions on one's nose. Does that mean we should do it? Or is there perhaps a better use our effort could be directed toward, with better results?

    41. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Narishma · · Score: 1

      Mars still has an atmosphere.

      --
      Mada mada dane.
    42. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Shakrai · · Score: 1

      Colonizing the moon would mean whoever lives there will always spend their time in giant glass bubbles.

      That doesn't sound much different from the poor bastards who have the misfortune of living in a major city ;)

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    43. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Shakrai · · Score: 1

      Does this mean that white man was never meant to settle the Americas? Of course not. We're here.

      I can think of some Native Americans that would say that.... Of course it's not our fault they never bothered to research gunpowder or develop resistance to smallpox ;)

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    44. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Shakrai · · Score: 1

      comparing it to a bunch of butcherous assholes who invaded foreign mands at point of sword and smallpox in search of gold and spices is not a comparison worth making.

      Nice. Howabout, oh, I dunno - the other 6 billion people - like in Liberia, or Ghana, or Burkina Faso or Bolivia, or Cuba, or North Korea, or Mongolia or China or the Maldives, or Tuva, or Armenia or Iran or Iraq or Afghanistan or Pakistan or India or Somalia? Or better yet, how about using the billions you would piss away on a Mars mission and get clean water to some of the place I mentioned? And maybe some decent medical treatment and educate the women. THAT would do far more to instill good will around the world than engaging in proxy wars over resources and using the third world as the battle ground.

      If you are going to be a hippie liberal douche, at least stop bogarting the pipe and pass that shit around ;)

      --
      I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
      We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
    45. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Squiffy · · Score: 1

      Actually, we do it because it's haaaahhhd.

    46. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      All of the proposed plans are based on the arguably flawed assumption that humans can add significant value in flexibility over current robotic explorers. Which is clearly not the case based on experiences with the mars rovers and similar devices.

      I just sat in a meeting with the crew of STS-125. They were asked at one point about the supposed conflict between manned and un-manned space exploration. They brought up an interesting point made by one of the lead geologists behind the Mars Rover project, which no one can argue has been a huge success, and is often touted as 'proof' that we don't need people. He was asked about the original 90-day mission that had been planned. Specifically, he was asked how much time it would have taken for a person to do the same job that the rovers did. The answer: half an hour. Now imagine how much a person could have learned over that same 90-day period! Someone ran the numbers and estimated that the cost-benefit ratio between manned and unmanned exploration turns out to be roughly the same. (Wish I had some citation for this, but in my mind it does make sense.)

    47. Re:How about "Robots Only" by ImprovOmega · · Score: 1

      Researching gunpowder would have made all existing barracks obsolete.

    48. Re:How about "Robots Only" by obenchainr · · Score: 1

      And I bet not a single one of those astronauts from Columbia, or Challenger, or the Apollo program would have changed his or her mind about going if you told them that. Every person who has ever strapped his- or herself to the top of one of those Roman candles knew what the risks were - and they went anyway. Not for fame or fortune, not for wealth or power, not even for scientific discovery. They went because it's what we do: we explore, we discover, and we push further. Life grows, advances, adapts - or it dies. As a species, we must continue to grow, to advance, to adapt - or we may as well fire off all those nukes and kill ourselves now, because that'll be the result in the end. Sending robots is a first step, but it's not the goal: the goal is shifting the limits on humanity, gaining new insight, new experience, and new perspective on both the universe and ourselves - and then finding the next frontier and pushing into that. That's not something that can be written on a profit/loss statement or presented at a congressional hearing, but it's something felt by every one of us who knows instinctively that when we look at the sky at night, we're looking out, not up.

    49. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Columbia was destroyed due to events that occurred on Earth: a debris strike during launch, followed by reentry into Earth's atmosphere.

      Challenger was destroyed due to events that occurred on Earth: a flaw in the design of the SRBs.

      Apollo 1 was destroyed due to events that occurred on Earth: turns out filling the capsule with pure O2 wasn't the best idea.

      All 17 astronauts who have lost their lives in a NASA spacecraft did so because of events that occurred on Earth.

      It would seem that Earth, for now, is not meant for fragile organic bags of mostly water. Once we manage to get people into space, though, we're just ducky.

    50. Re:How about "Robots Only" by forkazoo · · Score: 1

      Ridiculous. Think of one of the most interesting discoveries made by the Phoenix lander -- the frozen condensate that formed on one of the landing struts. A human would have noticed that immediately and been able to analyze it in detail. Conversely, a robotic probe can do only what it's programmed to do. All we can do is stroke our beards and say "Hmm, wonder what that is?"

      When you're not only expecting the unexpected, but hoping for it, you want human boots on the ground. One human mission is easily worth twenty robotic missions.

      I fully support the idea of human exploration. Don't get me wrong. But, think about comparing the capacities of a robotic mission with a mass and money budget equal to what would be consumed by a manned mission, and you suddenly have a very different set of capabilities in the robotic mission. And, if the robotic mission costs 1/5 what a manned mission would, it's not clear that a manned mission worth "20 robotic missions" is such a great bargain.

      IMO, the real payoff for manned missions won't really pay off until we have genuine colonies with a significant space based civillian economy. When a middle class guy can decide to move his family to Mars, and pay for the trip on an pretty average salary, then we'll finally have accomplished something big. It'll take a long, long time to get there. But, when it does, we'll have mastered what it takes to gain access to all the natural resources in the solar system, and have solved issues of cheap energy, and the whole human species will be much, much richer as a result.

      I know it seems like a pretty distant, utopian dream at this point, but it's absolutely possible. It takes a lot of hard work starting ASAP, but the potential payoff is large enough to justify a manned Mars mission today.

    51. Re:How about "Robots Only" by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 1

      We don't send people out there because it's easy. We do it because it's hard.

      Eradicating poverty, genocide, child molestation, global climate change, and mercury in fish are also hard tasks. I suggest we rank our "hard" projects intelligently.

    52. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Quiet_Desperation · · Score: 1

      No, we did it because we didn't want someone else to do it first.

      All of manned spaceflight since then has been, "Umm... now what?"

    53. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Because it won't be YOU going to Mars. YOUR experience of Mars would be (necessarily) a mediated one. In which case, you might as well "fake it" and pretend that its real because YOU are not going. Your argument is so clueless, it's astounding.

      Speak for yourself. I'll be there.

    54. Re:How about "Robots Only" by hardburn · · Score: 2, Insightful

      What you get with a manned space program over focusing on more specific problems is side benefits which are difficult to quantify before hand. I could list off some potential benefits, but I have a feeling you've both heard them all before and will pass them off as too abstract or theoretical. Further, it will be woefully incomplete, both because of known unknowns and unknown unknowns.

      If we're going to stick to the abstract anyway (and at this point, we have no choice), then it is sufficient to say that any exercise to push the limits of abilities will provide benefits completely unforeseen at the start, and that a manned space program represents the pinnacle in what we can do in pushing frontiers for the foreseeable future.

      This, I believe, is the under-appreciated crux of Kennedy's statement.

      --
      Not a typewriter
    55. Re:How about "Robots Only" by The_Duck271 · · Score: 1

      Very well said! This is the reason for pushing human spaceflight beyond what brings us immediate economic or scientific gains.

    56. Re:How about "Robots Only" by cockpitcomp · · Score: 1

      Landing on Mars will be easy compared to landing on Jupiter, so by that logic we should go to Jupiter.

    57. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Penguin's+Advocate · · Score: 1

      Great opinion. Unfortunately it ignores the reality that humans are involved... As far as the vast majority of (at least Americans, after all, this is NASA we're talking about) are concerned, there might as well not be a space program at all at this point. Most people have *no* idea what NASA is up to these days, and don't really care. If people don't care, their representatives don't care, and if their reps don't care, well then, "why are we funding NASA again?" If NASA doesn't do something to inspire the public, they're going to continue seeing what they've seen for decades: Budget cuts. *That* is why they need to send people. It's *all* about the "chest-thumping nonsense" because chest-thumping nonsense is what holds the attention of the vast majority of people. It really doesn't matter how much it ends up costing. People will beg, borrow, and steal to get things they want. But they're not going to lift a finger to get something they could care less about. I think the current budget for NASA (something like 0.6% of the total budget) probably accurately represents the percentage of Americans interested in space exploration at this point. Honestly, the best way to fund a Mars mission is probably to make some kind of reality TV show about it... Maybe send a dysfunctional family or an aging rock band instead of scientists.

      --
      Frag 'em all...
    58. Re:How about "Robots Only" by DoofusOfDeath · · Score: 1

      What you get with a manned space program over focusing on more specific problems is side benefits which are difficult to quantify before hand.

      Here's how I'm looking at it. Suppose that the benefit from some massive endeavor is the sum of its intended benefits + its unplanned benefits.

      Then which do you think is more likely to pay off, in terms of that summed value: Mars exploration, or (for example) the eradication of poverty? It would take a pretty damn amazing side-benefit from a Mars trip to outweigh the benefits I'd expect from eradicating poverty, or cancer, or unsustainable environmental pollution.

    59. Re:How about "Robots Only" by funaho · · Score: 1

      Hmm sounds like an episode of "Fear Factor" :)

    60. Re:How about "Robots Only" by hardburn · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Then which do you think is more likely to pay off, in terms of that summed value: Mars exploration, or (for example) the eradication of poverty? It would take a pretty damn amazing side-benefit from a Mars trip to outweigh the benefits I'd expect from eradicating poverty, or cancer, or unsustainable environmental pollution.

      Which would be relevent, if anybody had a good idea on how $200 billion could be used to eradicate poverty, or even ten or a hundred times that. We do, in fact, have lots of ideas on using $200 billion to go to Mars.

      --
      Not a typewriter
    61. Re:How about "Robots Only" by PachmanP · · Score: 1

      Eradicating poverty, genocide, child molestation, global climate change, and mercury in fish are also hard tasks. I suggest we rank our "hard" projects intelligently.

      Less people. Bam! Solved everything but the kiddy molesters. Those are easy problems to solve, but nobody likes the solution.

      --
      You're thinking small. Why miniaturize the laser, when we could instead enlarge the sharks? -John Searle
    62. Re:How about "Robots Only" by PachmanP · · Score: 1

      Landing on Mars will be easy compared to landing on Jupiter, so by that logic we should go to Jupiter.

      Yeah we want to stay away from Jupiter. I've seen the movie; it doesn't end well. Ditto for Europa.

      --
      You're thinking small. Why miniaturize the laser, when we could instead enlarge the sharks? -John Searle
    63. Re:How about "Robots Only" by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      We're talking NASA policy here, which needs to have the greatest information yield per dollar possible

      That's not NASA's policy, nor should it be.

    64. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      For every case of human ingenuity solving a problem (rover stuck in sand) one can think of great many situations where an accident would cause imminent danger for astronauts and nobody is there to help. Think of submarine accidents (e.g. Kursk). No human ingenuity can solve some problems and there are only two choices slowly dying, or hope to outsode help. In case of Mars this help is just a year - two years away.

    65. Re:How about "Robots Only" by melikamp · · Score: 1

      To be fair, I get myself in trouble all the time by saying "all" instead of "almost all". Well, almost all the time.

      In practical terms, you face the same challenge on Mars as you do on Moon: no ecosystem. That alone makes colonization practically impossible. Two guys and a chick camping on Mars for a few months is no "colonization", even if they manage to reproduce. A sustainable eco-dome that uses local resources to provide most if not all life support is the very minimum of what I would call "colonization". Anything less than that on Mars is just a money sink. I'll be first to agree that we must do that asap, but the technology just isn't there yet. The challenge is the same in the sense that it is at the moment insurmountable. But if you must try, you have to start with Moon, because it is so much closer and hence less costly (and we have no disagreement on that).

      While we are on the subject, I really want deep space colonization most of all. A nice space station is where it's at. If we can create a life support system out of light and a few nearby asteroids, we will be nearly indestructible, with space to expand for a looooooooong time. Unfortunately, robots (who, unlike us, are fine in vacuum, feeding on nothing but sunlight) will be way ahead of us in the near future, and we should just let them. Because robots are our friends.

    66. Re:How about "Robots Only" by JuzzFunky · · Score: 1

      The moon does have an atmosphere. It is so thin that it is almost negligible, but technically it exists.

      --
      Unexpect the expected!
    67. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'd rather my money wasn't used so some guy can feel cool, see a metaphorical hummingbird and bond with a Japanese guy...

    68. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Seven lives were sacrificed for nothing of value : they never needed to be there.

      Face it, space, for now, is not meant for fragile organic bags of mostly water.

      If the wright brothers had that opinion would we have ever flown?
      Had the people that invented the submarine had that opinion would we have ever explored the oceans?
      Would America have been found if Columbus has had that attitude?

      Sometime you have to do something purely because its their and its a challenge and I bet your ass everything knows the risk of going up to space and _none_ would shy away.

      The day we stop exploring the unknown is the day we die.

    69. Re:How about "Robots Only" by huge · · Score: 1

      Hell, NASA should consider offering one-way trips. They'd have enough volunteers to crash their Web server.

      Yeah, but how many of those volunteers would be capable of doing the job? You don't want random nut to fly to Mars just to go bat shit insane and wreck perfectly good experiment.

      --
      -- Reality checks don't bounce.
    70. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Painted · · Score: 1

      The benefit of human space exploration (to the moon, mars, or other object) is at least twofold. One, human intelligence is far, far greater than machine intelligence, as has been stated elsewhere in this thread. Two, when you're already bringing along "tons and tons of support equipment", it's easy to bring back significant samples (hundreds of kilos).

      The Russians are planning a sample return mission to Phobos. They are planning on bringing about 20g of sample. Now imagine you had a manned mission doing the same- if they came back with less than 20kg I'd be surprised (Apollo 11, a "flag and footprints" mission, brought back over 21kg of lunar samples).

      --
      http://marsandmore.com - Posters of space, spacecraft, and astronomy.
    71. Re:How about "Robots Only" by shiftless · · Score: 1

      The infrastructure cost for humans in space is staggering.

      Yes, and it's not getting any cheaper any time soon, now is it? The only way it's going to get cheaper is through us SPENDING THE MONEY to develop the technology and know-how, then put it into regular production and use. That's not going to happen if we just sit on our asses putting all our eggs into the robotics basket. It damn sure isn't going to happen if we leave it up to "the market" to figure it out. We have come a long way technologically since the 1960s; we have the technology now to put humans on Mars permanently, reaping large technological and research rewards in the process, if we could only get some people in Congress to have an ounce of vision and just spend the God damn money to make it happen.

    72. Re:How about "Robots Only" by khallow · · Score: 1

      All of the proposed plans are based on the arguably flawed assumption that humans can add significant value in flexibility over current robotic explorers. Which is clearly not the case based on experiences with the mars rovers and similar devices.

      I don't even understand how you can claim with a straight face that probes are comparable to humans on the scene. They aren't. A cursory read of the activities of a Mars probe would readily demonstrate how crude and limited they are.

      Now one can claim that probes are cost effective, but I wouldn't know myself since to my knowledge there's never been a fair comparison. The only real examples of manned science are the Apollo program and the space stations. Neither was done with any serious cost control. I'm not impressed by the capabilities of the current space station, the International Space Station, but I concede that it could do useful space science, if the logistical issues are worked out (say, by either finding a much cheaper way to the station or further subsidizing experiments on the station).

      Also, it depends on how valuable science is. I get the impression that for a lot of people including a number of scientists, science rapidly loses value as you produce more of it. For example, writing four papers a year might keep you gainfully employed on track to tenure while writing four more papers might just be work (ie, have negative gain). In that light, scientists directly involved aren't going to benefit greatly from a geyser of knowledge relative to the more sedate scientific output of probes.

    73. Re:How about "Robots Only" by Pence128 · · Score: 1

      Mars' crust is very rich in iron, the red colour is from the rust. It's atmosphere is about 1% of Earth's, for the purposes of stepping outside, it's not much different from space.

      --
      404: sig not found.
    74. Re:How about "Robots Only" by John+Miles · · Score: 1

      You don't want random nut to fly to Mars just to go bat shit insane and wreck perfectly good experiment.

      Why not? The movie rights alone would pay for the mission.

      --
      Dahlmann tightly grips the knife, which he may have no idea how to use, and steps out into the plain.
  7. Re:Probes. Lots of Probes. by hardburn · · Score: 1

    Don't use solar sails. Use nuclear pulse thrusters. Those same probes could be sending back images within our lifetimes.

    --
    Not a typewriter
  8. Flexible = least glamorous, most productive? by FTWinston · · Score: 4, Insightful

    As appealing as "get your ass to mars" seems, I suspect the "flexible" shallow gravity wells option (mining NEOs and the like) would cause the most sweeping changes across industry and society.

    If a space presence is what we really want, then that would seem to (under-informed) me to be the option with the most immediate and obvious financial benefits, and the one most likely to encourage indistrial expansion into space. Expansion of the sort that is most likely to stay.

    1. Re:Flexible = least glamorous, most productive? by MozeeToby · · Score: 2, Interesting

      I agree, visiting NEOs is much easier than sending us to Mars and has the possibility of real economic (not just incidental R and D) impact. It would also serve as a test bed if we ever see a rock coming our way and need to do something about it. If we could find a source of rocket fuel that isn't at the bottom of a major gravity well, I would say go there first, but in the meantime visiting and eventually moving NEO would be the highest priority for me.

    2. Re:Flexible = least glamorous, most productive? by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      Anyone have ideas on how to pitch "Flexible Path" as an exciting option to the public? I mean, I personally think asteroid mining, learning to detect potential planet killers, visiting comet cores, and viewing Mars from Phobos would be pretty inspiring, but I'm not sure how to sell it to the public.

    3. Re:Flexible = least glamorous, most productive? by SBrach · · Score: 1

      Yes, there's no safer profession then mining. Especially when you're perched on a snowball whipping through space at a million miles an hour. Woo woo woooooooooo. Safe.

    4. Re:Flexible = least glamorous, most productive? by Gilmoure · · Score: 1

      Something along the lines of gearing up industry like they did for WWII? Or big blimps flying around talking about exciting opportunities in the off world colonies?

      --
      I drank what? -- Socrates
    5. Re:Flexible = least glamorous, most productive? by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      If we could find a source of rocket fuel that isn't at the bottom of a major gravity well, I would say go there first, but in the meantime visiting and eventually moving NEO would be the highest priority for me.

      http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/faq/

      What Is A Near-Earth Object (NEO)?

      Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) are comets and asteroids that have been nudged by the gravitational attraction of nearby planets into orbits that allow them to enter the Earth's neighborhood. Composed mostly of water ice with embedded dust particles, comets originally formed in the cold outer planetary system while most of the rocky asteroids formed in the warmer inner solar system between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter.

      Why Study Asteroids? ... The asteroids that are potentially the most hazardous because they can closely approach the Earth are also the objects that could be most easily exploited for raw materials. These raw materials could be used in developing the space structures and in generating the rocket fuel that will be required to explore and colonize our solar system in the twenty-first century. By closely investigating the compositions of asteroids, intelligent choices can be made as to which ones offer the richest supplies of raw materials. It has been estimated that the mineral wealth resident in the belt of asteroids between the orbits of Mars and Jupiter would be equivalent to about 100 billion dollars for every person on Earth today.

      Why Study Comets? ... As with asteroids, comets are both a potential threat and a potential resource for the colonization of the solar system in the twenty first century. Whereas asteroids are rich in the mineral raw materials required to build structures in space, the comets are rich resources for the water and carbon-based molecules necessary to sustain life. In addition, an abundant supply of cometary water ice can provide copious quantities of liquid hydrogen and oxygen, the two primary ingredients in rocket fuel. One day soon, comets may serve as fueling stations for interplanetary spacecraft.

    6. Re:Flexible = least glamorous, most productive? by Pence128 · · Score: 1

      does anyone know if there are any near Earth asteroids or comets that are close/small/slow enough to drag into earth orbit? that could be the beginnings of industry in space, possibly used to construct a space colony.

      --
      404: sig not found.
    7. Re:Flexible = least glamorous, most productive? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I'm sure there are ... it all depends on how hard, and for how long, you're able to push...

  9. I like the flexible path by Steve1952 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The flexible path that would go to shallow gravity well destinations, such as asteroids or the martian moons, makes a lot of sense to me. This lets NASA gradually transition from the international space station to long duration space voyages, while avoiding the big problem of lifting the huge amount of mass needed to enter and return from gravity wells. To show how much simpler the shallow gravity well problem is, consider that efficient, low-power thrusters mounted on a platform similar to the international space station could do the trick. At the same time, this lets us gain access to materials (ice, metals, etc.) present in the space environment, and also lets us do a lot of interesting fundamental science.

    1. Re:I like the flexible path by Dripdry · · Score: 1

      I agree with you, but I start to see one problem with asteroid minig: Great, we can make stuff in space. How can we get it back to earth to sell to people? Where is the market for the goods produced? If the manufactured goods only stay in space, what good is it? Should companies be expected to make investments in space that may not have a market for a 100 years or more?

      Not trying to be difficult, as I said I really do agree with you and like your reasoning, just giving a capitalistic slant that might explain why companies aren't chomping at the bit to go into space and mine the trillions of dollars in resources out there.

      --
      -
    2. Re:I like the flexible path by camperdave · · Score: 1

      There's only one real resource worth mining, and that's water. The key to opening up space is propellant mass. You can't change orbits, or travel from one body to the next without propellant. Water can also be cracked for its oxygen. Water and/or oxygen are also used in so many industrial refining processes it's ridiculous.

      As far as mining for metals, we'd be far better off spending the billions building recycling plants and recovering them from the millions of tons of garbage we throw out each year.

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
    3. Re:I like the flexible path by Squiffy · · Score: 1

      How about the stock exchange? People buy and sell all kinds of commodities there without ever using them.

  10. Re:Probes. Lots of Probes. by Shakrai · · Score: 3, Funny

    Couple hundred years from now the first will be hitting Alpha Centauri

    Not if we play the game with 'bloodlust' turned on.

    --
    I want peace on earth and goodwill toward man.
    We are the United States Government! We don't do that sort of thing.
  11. Re:Probes. Lots of Probes. by eln · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Dude, this is America! We don't wait for things! Even the 6 months it takes to get to Mars is pushing it...the way our attention span is, we'd probably launch the astronauts to Mars, and then 3 months later some Congresscritter would recommend cutting out this silly "Mars mission" from the budget, because no one even remembers what that was for, and use the money to build a new movie theater in his district (named after him, naturally). They'd lay off everyone at Mission Control, and the astronauts up in their capsule would wonder why no one is answering their transmissions anymore.

    Talking about something that would take 200 years? Hell, when Voyager was (briefly) back in the news a couple of years ago, most people probably didn't even know what the hell it was, other than some vague memory in the deep recesses of their brains that it had something to do with Star Trek, much less what it was supposed to be doing out there. 200 years from now, people will probably think the transmissions coming from your proposed spacecraft are from some alien race and freak out.

    My prediction is that this whole process results in some pretty exciting plans, which will all be canceled after NASA's budget gets slashed yet again.

  12. They have to expect the consensus to be... by cwiegmann24 · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Go to Mars. Most of us would agree that there are much more beneficial endeavors, probably more profitable as well. But the fact of the matter is nothing else would get as much attention from the general public as going to Mars.

  13. Mars: hell yea! Phobos: Hell (no!) by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    I'd go to mars in a second! But I hear the demon population is a bit high on Phobos, and ammo for a BFG is just too expensive these days.

  14. Non-definitive list by StefanJ · · Score: 2, Interesting

    One project which would be helpful for any sort of Mars exploration would be the establishment of a communication and navigation infrastructure. Maybe a dozen small satellites in polar orbits* with a sort of GPS-lite capability and a store-and-forward messaging capability. Plus two big communication sats with nice big solar arrays and very powerful radio transciever for getting data back to earth. (And forwarding commands to any probe or manned mission that needs it.)

    A near-Earth-system manned mission capability. Take the planned NASA Earth orbit / Moon orbit ship and add a refuelable propulsion / service module. Future versions could have a reactor & radiator, and maybe even a fission rocket motor.

    * Yes, this is a challenge.

  15. Keep trying to cut the cost to LEO by wisebabo · · Score: 4, Interesting

    The most important single advance that could help spaceflight, manned and unmanned would be to reduce the cost to LEO. This will require, ultimately, a SSTO (single stage to orbit) launcher. Of course it's tough (remember the X-34? the Delta Clipper?) but that doesn't mean that with new advances in materials (can you say carbon nanotube reinforced composites) it's impossible. Unless we can bring the cost of access to space down by a factor of at least 10 a lot of these dreams will remain just that; dreams.

    After that, new low thrust high specific impulse engines would be very useful along with a compact energy source to power them. VASIMIR sounds promising and maybe magnetic sails (which might have the side benefit of protection against cosmic rays). We'll probably need real nuclear reactors in space like the SNAP program (or the Russian equivalent). Remember the words of an airforce general: "a new plane doesn't make a new engine possible, a new engine makes a new plane possible".

    Ultimately, of course, a space elevator is the best way to go. There was a proposal, I think, of building one for less than $10B by using a "small" elevator to bring the materials gradually up from earth (rather than trying to capture an carbonaceous asteroid to use as a material source/counterweight). Of course we'll need those carbon nanotubes again!

    1. Re:Keep trying to cut the cost to LEO by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      The most important single advance that could help spaceflight, manned and unmanned would be to reduce the cost to LEO. This will require, ultimately, a SSTO (single stage to orbit) launcher. Of course it's tough (remember the X-34? the Delta Clipper?) but that doesn't mean that with new advances in materials (can you say carbon nanotube reinforced composites) it's impossible.

      Actually, the Delta Clipper (DC-X) didn't seem too "tough," at least as far as manned space projects go. The only problem it had was an easily-fixed faulty landing gear, and the main reason NASA cancelled it was so that it could focus attention on the much more expensive X-33. The follow-on orbital SSTO program, DC-Y, was estimated to only cost $5 billion to develop, which would include 4 production vehicles. Hopefully Armadillo Aerospace and Blue Origin (which has hired many of the original DC-X engineers) can pick up the torch.

      Even with SSTO though, I think SpaceX is showing that you can lower costs quite a bit by designing a multi-stage rocket with cost in mind. Elon Musk seems to believe that he's fully capable of dropping launch costs by at least an order of magnitude with his current approach, and has bet quite a bit of his own money on that.

    2. Re:Keep trying to cut the cost to LEO by rufty_tufty · · Score: 1

      Why do you require SSTO in order to bring launch costs down? Saying it will be simpler and therefore cheaper is like saying a canoe is a better way to cross the Atlantic than a cruise ship, because it is simpler.
      SSTO requires pretty much everything in the system to be working at the theoretical limits. That will never be cheap. EVER! Even with unobtanium materials you could do a better cheaper job by staging using these new materials.
      Staging is a tried, trusted and reliable technology - what is wrong with it that hasn't been fixed over the decades?

      --
      "The weirdest thing about a mind, is that every answer that you find, is the basis of a brand new cliche" -
    3. Re:Keep trying to cut the cost to LEO by wisebabo · · Score: 1

      Good point, my only concern with staging is that it (usually) implies throwing away some very costly equipment (or difficult recovery scheme) and adds complexity. Perhaps a air breathing booster rocket that can land on a runway might be a good compromise.

    4. Re:Keep trying to cut the cost to LEO by rufty_tufty · · Score: 1

      FWIW I believe early plans for SSTS have the boosters with flyback engines on them so that they would return to the runway. Unfortunatly this bit of easy reusability was dumped.

      --
      "The weirdest thing about a mind, is that every answer that you find, is the basis of a brand new cliche" -
    5. Re:Keep trying to cut the cost to LEO by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      Interesting idea especially when combined with a table from one of TFAs. Since I can't link the first table I'll try posting it...

      Table 1 Mission Velocity Requirements (delta-v)
      Earth surface to LEO 8.0 km/s
      Earth surface to escape velocity 11.2 km/s
      Earth surface to GEO 11.8 km/s
      LEO to escape velocity 3.2 km/s
      LEO to Mars or Venus transfer orbit 3.7 km/s
      LEO to GEO 3.5 km/s
      LEO to HEEO 2.5 km/s
      LEO to Moon landing 6.3 km/s
      LEO to Near Earth Asteroid approx 5.5 km/s
      Lunar surface to LEO (with aerobraking) 2.4 km/s
      NEA to Earth transfer orbit approx 1.0 km/s
      Phobos / Deimos to LEO 8.0 km/s

      So once you get into orbit the inner solar system really does open up to you... Provided you know how to keep people alive in space for long durations. Also, notice the delta-V entries for "Lunar surface to LEO (with aerobraking)" and "NEA to Earth transfer orbit". Solar-powered mass drivers could achieve those numbers for modest sized cargo containers full of raw or semi-processed materials like ore, metals, or ice.

  16. How about... by cwiegmann24 · · Score: 4, Funny

    We create a huge solar array, big enough to cause a solar eclipse, and position it so it happens every other week or so. It would really freak India out...

  17. Re:Wood paneling on minivans. by xmff · · Score: 1

    Man, create a blog or so to post your rants so it's easier to filter out this crap. It's not even loosely related to the current discussion.

  18. Practice moving asteroids! by starglider29a · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Anything else we do is grave decoration.

    Sending probes or even people to explore Mars, Alpha Centauri or Wolf 359 is a waste if we are wiped out by an asteroid. We have some good theories on how to do it. We need to test them.

    Let's practice while we still have the luxury of time... and failure.

    1. Re:Practice moving asteroids! by eriks · · Score: 1

      Yes! Large asteroid impacts to the earth is practically the only natural disaster in which we have a reasonable possibility of averting, which is good, since they are potentially the most devastating.

      To not at least start the process of actually doing something about it could be suicide by inaction.

      Besides, it sounds fun! Moving around asteroids could even (eventually) be profitable:

      Asteroid Mining

  19. Mod parent up by Late+Adopter · · Score: 1

    The delta-v required to get off Earth is just plain enormous. That's a fact of physics which will NEVER change. What can change is (a) the cost of energy, and (b) how efficiently we can use that energy to escape our gravity well. If you want to make space exploration more feasible you have to do one or both of those two.

  20. Space Elevator, Duh by nsteinme · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The construction of a space elevator will allow humans to get anywhere else in space faster and cheaper. Rocket-based methods are horribly inefficient ways to get to orbit. Payload launch costs of $10,000 or more per pound? You gotta be kidding me. If we don't have the technology for space elevators yet, NASA should be working on that as a top priority.

    --
    call me FOSS im the boss with the sauce and the source
    1. Re:Space Elevator, Duh by Patch86 · · Score: 1

      There's a reason NASA (and the rest) won't commit serious funding to Space Elevators. Essentially, they're too worried it'll fail.

      If you pour $100s of billions into a project, there is just no way you could turn around and say "turns out that we can't do it after all". It's unthinkable. Space Elevators still have some real scientific doubts about how to get them working, and those doubts won't go away without serious research. But NASA can't spend serious money researching it if they think there's a possibility they'll fail at it.

      Big rockets, on the other hand, they know will definitely work. They know that every dollar they pour into big rockets can have real tangible benefits, with no risk of it turning out not to be worth it.

      Given a choice between big rockets and space elevators, they're going to pick the safe choice.

    2. Re:Space Elevator, Duh by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      Payload launch costs of $10,000 or more [futron.com] per pound? You gotta be kidding me.

      It should be noted that SpaceX's Falcon 9 Heavy has that price down to less than $1500 a pound, with plans to drop it even more. There's still quite a ways to go in making rockets more cost-efficient, and SpaceX is pretty much the first company to really try making a cost-efficient rocket from scratch.

  21. Israel? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    You just solved the 'Middle East Crisis'!

  22. As long as there's real science by Theodore · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Go ahead and go, go anywhere and everywhere...
    But actually DO something once you get there, don't just go there to wave your dick around.

    I'd really like to see a good sized radio telescope built on the far side of the moon, complete with relay lines to dishes at the terminus between near and far sides, so there's no accidental reflections from earth off of relay satellites instead.

    Going further out than LEO would be good also...
    I remember reading this PDF of a flight plan from around 40 years ago, where they wanted to send a crew further INTO the solar system, and actually intercept/orbit Venus, using apollo tech.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manned_Venus_Flyby

    How about a small, self sufficient station at L3?
    You'd need a couple of relay sats for comms, but that's a smaller cost than the station.

    Alas, none of this will happen though, because we're too adverse to risk these days, and we wouldn't DARE send someone condemned to death out there instead, it'd de-demonize them (serial killer and first man on another planet?).
    Plus, have you noticed that most of the studies about going into space for long periods of time involve seeing if people can do with limited to no social interaction?
    Yeah, most of US can, but the ones they trust to send up there, CAN'T!
    So we gotta settle for unmanned probes.

    So fire off at least one every month.
    Pick something to study: moon, planet, propulsion tech, comm tech, interstellar phenomenom (this one will take time and would need to be fast).
    And if you need some tech to make sure it works (such as an RTG), and people complain about it, ignore them with extreme prejudice.

    And more space telescopes!
    Seriously, we have barely a handful pointing outwards, but probably hundreds (classified, guess, and hope you're not accurate) looking back down?

    1. Re:As long as there's real science by camperdave · · Score: 1

      There are thousands of L3 points in the Solar System. All of them are unstable. L4s and L5s are stable, so placing a station at Earth-Moon L5 (EML5) or Sun-Earth L5 might be worthwhile... if we could get that whole "self sustaining" thing working.

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
  23. Another Vote For Robots... by Xin+Jing · · Score: 2, Insightful

    The modern national space program like what we've seen recently with the Shuttle was flawed from inception due to Pentagon-mandated low-orbit satellite retrieval capability, cost-prohibitive quick-turn launch requirements and catastrophic reoccuring heat tile failure. NASA for the most part didn't have a problem getting us there, they had a problem getting us back. Arguably, I think the Mars Exploration Rovers Spirit and Opportunity provided the biggest return on investment NASA has committed in the last 20 years. Space exploration is a business, and every time you have an orbiter burn up due to a lingering design problem - no matter how cool it is to EVA and pilot a spacecraft - you set the support (ie taxpayers) back. MER took the same form factor, packed in more science return, and left Earth and is presently exploring another planet from it's surface. I'm not saying humans shouldn't be in space, or that scientific achievements haven't been realized. Given the cost, dangers and complexity of putting a person in space versus a robot, a sensable direction begins to emerge. No one except perhaps the designers will mourn for a robot that burns up on entry because of heat shield failure or is destroyed on impact because the parachute fails to open.

  24. Nohting right now by SGDarkKnight · · Score: 1

    One might think the best course of action would be to establish a lunar coloney that could be used as an output for any future missions further out into space. However, the lunar coloney would be subject to the impacts from space rock. The moon is constanly being hit by micro-meteorites and until we can find some way to block these types of impacts, i cant see any type of installtion lasting very long. I still belive that the lunar coloney would be the best starting point for any future space exploration. Just my two cents though

    --

    ...A no smoking section in a restaurant is like having a no peeing section in a swimming pool...
    1. Re:Nohting right now by ubergamer1337 · · Score: 1

      I find your coloney plan bologna! :-)

    2. Re:Nohting right now by camperdave · · Score: 1

      Bury it. A metre or two of lunar regolith would stop anything that wasn't going to destroy the station anyways, and do a fine job of cutting back on the radiation hazards. Add a solar powered maglev rail launcher, and you're in business.

      --
      When our name is on the back of your car, we're behind you all the way!
  25. Ceres or bust by T+Murphy · · Score: 1

    I say we beat the Buggers to Ceres.

    1. Re:Ceres or bust by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

      I agree completely. It would be a great object to colonize on; would allow a large enough base of operations in the belts to also work on practicing moving asteroids around for the purpose of industry (ship building/general space based construction practice T&E).. Would also have the secondary side effect of preservation of the species if we corralled fast movers cruising through the interior.

      Space Elevator for initial construction of some form of a space port/larger scale space station (the legitimate self, or nearly self-sustaining stations of SCI-FI); Small moon base for a refueling depot in a small gravity well, and Ceres for the win. It'd be so perfect, hollowed out large scale construction facility located with ample resources and a small gravity well.

      Pop in some of those microwave beaming solar satellite arrays we're working on for power, maybe a nuclear power source as well.. Stirling engines for energy recovery/cooling of the focused PVs/within the station.. Large scale agricultural effort as well.. Ceres. Ceres. Ceres

    2. Re:Ceres or bust by T+Murphy · · Score: 1

      I think we should consider first building the space elevator at the moon, mars, etc. Smaller forces to work with, less drag, and far less politics. An earth-based one would be the second- or third-generation. Not to mention we can work out the kinks without the risk of everything literally crashing down to Earth and hurting people.

      The cost of building it in lunar orbit rather than Earth orbit will very likely override the benefits, but if we have a lunar base first it might be worth consideration.

  26. Just raise taxes by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    >> The cost would be massive

    How exactly would massive cost stop the White House and Congress? Just tack-on another stepped 5% income tax to pay for this...works for other programs that way.

  27. Re:Probes. Lots of Probes. by PitaBred · · Score: 1

    A movie theater? C'mon... that kind of budget would be worth at least a minor-league stadium or regional airport or something

  28. NASA as Open Source R&D Public Works Project by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Interesting

    I recommended that NASA add a scenario to recast NASA as an "infrastructure" building public works program rather than a national prestige exploration program. The goal of "safe, innovative, affordable, and sustainable" manned spaceflight can best be met through collaboration with commercial manned spaceflight rather than a system of NASA run manned exploration projects. To achieve this collaboration, NASA should refocus on "infrastructure" - not literally space lift facilities, but instead the knowledge infrastructure private industry is lacking. Returning to its NACA research roots, NASA should perform pure research and development and release the information gained and systems developed to the commercial spaceflight community via an open source license. Specific focus should be given to robust ECLSS systems and standardized docking systems and procedures. This research would allow the space industry to rapidly produce safe and affordable lift vehicles and spacecraft which could interact with the ISS, explore NEO objects for exploitable resources, and generally increase the profit-generating capability of space beyond space tourism. NASA continuing to provide open source research would allow manned use of space to evolve naturally, following the rules of supply and demand to determine which locations need to be explored when rather than an artificial timeline for national prestige.

  29. Manned Vs Robotic Posterity... by Xin+Jing · · Score: 1

    NASA has showed us some capacity to learn from it's mistakes. Where they recorded over the original moon landing magnetic tapes, they later learned to archive the Voyager transmissions.

  30. Third scenario by voss · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Minor note on your second scenario- It could be the group who is persecuted is the ones with money and technical knowledge, if they were politically influential they wouldn't be persecuted.

    Third Scenario- An inhabitable world is discovered within a few years travel time.

    Theres a lot more incentive to go when you sort of know whats there and as for trading who cares? If land is cheap and food is plentiful and you have a good chance of making it, people will go.

    "Ive got 30,000 in debt, and $500 a month in child support. So my choices are stay here and give all my money to someone else or hop on your ark ship and go someplace where ill have land and can do whatever I want.
    Where do i sign up?"

  31. railgun by strack · · Score: 3, Interesting

    what we need, is a huge ass railgun that shoots telephone pole shaped slugs, filled with water, oxygen, or whatever raw materials are needed, up to a space station in geostationary orbit. a space station with a cnc machine, and some manufacturing capability, so you can create new parts for said space station.

  32. Re:Wood paneling on minivans. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    ? Are you retarded? How is it NOT related to the current discussion?

    Direction to head, and hastily assembled proofs..

    White House Panel Seeks Input On Spaceflight Plans

    and Spaceflight plans don't have relevance?

  33. Self Sufficiency by clarkn0va · · Score: 1

    The infrastructure cost for humans in space is staggering.

    That's why I keep going on about how important it is to plant a garden as soon as you get there. And only flush after number two. "If it's yellow, let it mellow. If it's brown, flush it down."

    --
    I am literally 3000 tokens away from the chaotic crossbow --Stephen
  34. Enable private space industry by chaim79 · · Score: 1

    Forget government, let NASA play it's space game and retire the shuttle, government will never do space right.

    Space needs to be done by the public, companies, individuals, etc need to be permitted to go into space without fighting NASA for each flight.

    Burt Rutan discusses this issue fairly well, I'm with him, private industry and people will be the viable plan for future spaceflight, forget the government.

    --
    DEMETRIUS: Villain, what hast thou done?
    AARON: Villain, I have done thy mother.
    Shakespeare invents 'your mom'
    1. Re:Enable private space industry by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      Burt Rutan [ted.com] discusses this issue fairly well, I'm with him, private industry and people will be the viable plan for future spaceflight, forget the government.

      I'd personally rather see the government acting as a customer. This seems to have worked pretty well in the realm of unmanned science missions, with NASA giving money to private industry and academic institutions to build probes and instruments, and then buying a commercial space launch. I'm not sure why (besides congressional politics) NASA is so opposed to doing something similar with human spaceflight.

  35. some interesting suggestions here by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    --
    you can find some good, interesting and useful suggestions for the Human Space Flight Plans Committee and NASA here:
    --
    http://www.ghostnasa.com/posts/045suggestions.html
    --

  36. Military Vs Scientific... by Xin+Jing · · Score: 1

    If we define succcess as radar mapping, atmospheric and soil analysis, then yes a huge step as been taken. The bridging of technology intended for human use in an exploratory capicity with military oversight is problematic; the military will always require a capability that brings the cost way up. Not that the two can't complement each other, it's that they hinder each other's growth. The military equivelent of "exploration" is "search and rescue", usually assigned to asset recovery. The military has no interest in scraping the surface of Martian rocks or analyzing subsurface ice looking for microbial life. Interestingly, if NASA could implement a "search and rescue" protocol of it's own to recover discarded equipment, (think Salvage One tv show) there could be business oportunity and recovery of space assets that are for all intents and purposes, considered lost.

  37. Transform NASA into a "prize for results" awarder by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    NASA as it exists today is too political. To get any program started, you have to court politicians and promise work in their districts.

    That's pure crap.

    We want results, not engineering welfare.

    NASA, with political input, should choose tasks that need to be performed and create prizes for the different solutions that work - similar to the X-Prize. No more NASA programs, just prizes for completing missions. Let the private sector take the risks and you'll end up with results, not cost overruns.

    See, NASA will only go beyond LEO when a ship the size of the Titanic can be sent to contain all the required redundancy. I'd like to see some team on "motorcycles" head for Mars. Think about the pioneers who left St. Louis to homestead in Wyoming ... They knew they could die in the attempt and many did.

    Let risk takers lead the way.

  38. Re:Probes. Lots of Probes. by Mike+Rice · · Score: 1

    Don't use pulse thrusters. Use Temporal Overdrive Motivators, so that we can simply inherit those images from our grandparents!

  39. Master the environments of the Earth first. by N1tr0u5 · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Is there a organization dedicated to exploring and inhabiting all the different environments of the world and developing materials to make it easier? I'd fund them before I funded NASA.

    All the money we spend on getting off our planet could be used to further explore the planet and the advancements made applied to space travel. If we could develop materials, method, and technology to the point that we could easily live on the bottom of the ocean (extreme pressure and temperature), I think it might be easier to get that same rig adjusted to work on Venus. If we can easily inhabit the (Ant)Arctic, I think it may be easier for us to check out that same tech on Mars, etc. If we can get a self sustaining flying environment, it might be worthwhile to send it to Jupiter.

    In addition, someone else mentioned that it would be impossible to get the materials back from wherever we went. Well, I'm sure exploration of our own Earth and the ability to safely occupy any of it's environments would give us a wealth of resource exploiting opportunities, or at least experience in resource harvesting under adverse conditions, which is what we would need to get those resources from whatever planet/moon we visited in the first place.

    You gotta crawl before you walk. Putting man on the moon was novelty, and now we are too hung up on going back. Putting man on the bottom of the ocean in a self sustaining environment has practical applications. In addition to the research and advances from getting there, I'm pretty sure the bottom of the ocean is safe from any cataclysmic event save tectonic motion, which provides another level of certainty that our species survives things that may otherwise destroy most life on the planet. /ramble

    1. Re:Master the environments of the Earth first. by mtemmerm · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Actually working from the bottom of the ocean perspective isn't that bad an idea to do both earthbound science and the preparation of space exploration a favor. You'd find hundreds of unknown lifeforms at the bottom of the ocean, the conditions there are harsh like an ET environment (no air, pressure challenges, isolation to name a few). You'd have to be forced to engineer solutions to new and interesting problems. NASA should definitely start thinking about using deep seafloor bases. They could use it as a marketing pitch even.

    2. Re:Master the environments of the Earth first. by 32771 · · Score: 1

      >the conditions there are harsh like an ET environment (no air, pressure challenges)

      I just replied to someone else pondering this claim.

      I believe they are harsher. The only problem is the distance to the moon for instance and maybe lack of resources like water.

      The pressure difference from earth to space is one athmosphere, down at 10m into the ocean it is already two athmospheres.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underwater

      The temperature on the moon if you are under ground can be around 20degrees C at the equator while in the ocean it is around 0 to 2 degrees C
      at higher depths.

      http://www.lunarpedia.org/index.php?title=Lunar_Temperature

      Under water you have no to little access to solar energy, whereas you can get 10x to 3x of what you get at sealevel, on the moon.

      In seawater you have also chemical stresses on equipment besides the mechanical stress. I could imagine that you will spend less on maintenance on the moon than you will on earth.

      If you plan on staying longer in either location
      you might be able to spread out the setup cost especially if you become self sufficient. All the maintenance will eat into whatever budget you have then.

      I want to see somebodies plan of how to move to the sea from zero to whatever depth start a colony and become self sufficient over 100 years and be able to start a new colony like the first without help from the land.

      Just looking at how nature itself is faring:

      http://users.rcn.com/jkimball.ma.ultranet/BiologyPages/N/NetProductivity.html

      kilocalories/m2/year
      Ocean close to shore 2,500
      Open ocean 800 ...
      Tall-grass prairie 2,000
      Desert 500
      Lawn, Washington, D.C. 6,800
      Sugar cane, Hawaii 25,000

      Not bad but not great.

      --
      Je me souviens.
    3. Re:Master the environments of the Earth first. by PaganRitual · · Score: 1

      I've been reading bullshit arguments about how we shouldn't go to other planets before we've got things sussed back home for so long I just skip that crap nowadays, and through all that time it's taken this long for someone to actually come up with a brilliant and meaningful argument other than feeding the poor or some other humanitarian garbage. For what it's worth (nothing), I'm impressed.

    4. Re:Master the environments of the Earth first. by agrif · · Score: 1

      I don't think that the importance of space exploration in survival can be overstated. Yes, deep sea exploration would provide some level of protection, but anything involving a large scale impact would screw over anything on the planet.

      We're a very fragile species living in a fragile environment in one place. For our survival we need to get the hell off this rock as soon as possible.

    5. Re:Master the environments of the Earth first. by khallow · · Score: 1

      Is there a organization dedicated to exploring and inhabiting all the different environments of the world and developing materials to make it easier? I'd fund them before I funded NASA.

      All the money we spend on getting off our planet could be used to further explore the planet and the advancements made applied to space travel.

      You are 500 years too late. There's no need for such an organization now. Private efforts alone dwarf anything government could do. And the barrier to entry for the more exotic stuff (like building an undersea habitat) just isn't that great. If people aren't doing it now, it's because of disinterest, not because the task requires extraordinary resources that only a well-funded government program can provide.

      Space exploration on the other hand is at the stage where government spending can make a difference. I'm not saying that it's necessarily a good idea. We already know it'll be very hard to find useful things (useful to the point that value returned nears the expenditure) to do in space. And NASA does have a remarkably bad track record when it comes to productive manned space flight. But the huge budget of NASA would be extremely useful to opening space for humanity and the US, if that's what the US wants to do.

  40. Re:Probes. Lots of Probes. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    I thought we arrive in 2100?

  41. Re:Nothing right now by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Excavate?

  42. flexible path by jrvz · · Score: 1

    We shouldn't spend too much effort sending people into space until there's a financial payoff. Until then, we should concentrate on robotic missions, in the hopes that one of them will discover that opportunity. And even though distant places may be more interesting, we should concentrate on places with shallow gravity wells because it's more likely some industrial operation could be feasible there. E.g. if the fusion power people figure out how to generate electricity with helium 3, then we will want to set up lunar mining operations. Or if we find a relatively convenient asteroid (low delta V from earth, not necessarily short distance) with a high concentration of platinum. With a big industrial operation, you will want somebody on site for troubleshooting and security. (Otherwise maybe I'll send a robot to steal He3 from your robot :-). Then we'll develop the infrastructure for other things: tourism, colonization, radar astronomy from the far side of the moon, etc. An important part of that infrastructure is a launch method that's much more efficient than rockets - e.g. a space elevator or a rotovator.

  43. The Case Against Mars by forrestbennett · · Score: 1

    See this excellent essay against Mars and in favor of exploring the asteroids, Phobos, Deimos, or Earth's moon by NSS Board of Governors member and former L5 board adviser Eric Drexler, Space Development: The Case Against Mars

    This recent NewScientist article overviews a recent report from the NSS co-authored by Buzz Aldrin with a similar conclusion, Astronaut-authored report says NASA needs new direction

    1. Re:The Case Against Mars by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      This recent NewScientist article overviews a recent report from the NSS co-authored by Buzz Aldrin with a similar conclusion, Astronaut-authored report says NASA needs new direction [newscientist.com]

      Coincidentally, the Flexible Path option is essentially the same as the early- and mid-term (pre-2030) stages of Buzz Aldrin's proposed plan for NASA. The plan has construction of LEO and L-1 refueling stations, trips to L2 in 2016, the Comet Wirtanen in 2018, the asteroids 2001 GP2 and (potential planet-striker) Apophis in 2020 and 2022, Phobos missions starting in 2024, then Mars in 2032.

  44. The question is, by WindBourne · · Score: 1

    is this about science, or about putting humans into space and in particular, on another planet (for good)? If NASA is to be ONLY about science, then we would be smart to just push private industry for rocket launches and then simply fund other companies to build sats. I think that would likely be the death of Space and ultimately, Science in America.

    OTH, if we say that we are going to put man in other locations in space, then it makes sense to have a diversified rocket launch capability. That means that we should PUSH private rockets as well as develop a new large system. We can not afford Ares I AND ares V. Makes zero sense. Instead, I hate to admit it, but Direct makes a LOT more sense. It is cheaper to develop and has the ability to grow to ares V capability (4 engines combined with 2, or possible 4, 5 stage boosters).

    --
    I prefer the "u" in honour as it seems to be missing these days.
    1. Re:The question is, by FleaPlus · · Score: 1

      OTH, if we say that we are going to put man in other locations in space, then it makes sense to have a diversified rocket launch capability. That means that we should PUSH private rockets as well as develop a new large system.

      Actually, one of the reasons I really like the "Flexible Path" option is that sending people to shallow gravity wells should be quite feasible with commercial launchers (EELVs, SpaceX, Orbital, launchers from other countries like Soyuz and Ariane). By acting as a customer to the commercial ventures, NASA will help the companies grow and become better at lower launch costs, and they'll eventually build larger vehicles to further optimize costs.

      I actually think you can also do deeper gravity wells (Moon, Mars, etc.) as well with smaller launchers, although that requires more effort with propellant depots.

  45. not too far off by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    12:52 AM 7/24/2009
    maybe this is just too far off, but maybe a loftsrom loop (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Launch_loop)
    from singapore over to the west kalimantan town of pemankat
    would be a good investment into the future.
    spaceflight has one big hurdle. that is getting from
    this rock into LEO (low earth orbit: 200 km up?).
    if there were a CHEAP means of getting "stuff" into
    orbit a whole new playing field opens up, because
    alot of new propulsion tech (deep space) could be tried and tested
    (and maybe even have the benefit of extending the
    moral horizon of human kind, once they get to see
    their home planet (the blue gem) from a different perspective
    (say religious fanatics and leader of rogue states). the message being: "we are one"?).
    -
    and still, a ferry that just does interplanetary trips
    and never lands (just goes into orbit) is probably a good investment too : )

    1. Re:not too far off by mtemmerm · · Score: 1

      From the wikipedia link: "Using a 300 MW power generator, this would take about two months to reach full speed." Just so I get this straight, that's 300 million Watts, for 2 months non-stop pushing that thing? In order to slingshot something in LEO? Somehow I am not convinced about the whole concept :/.

    2. Re:not too far off by Pence128 · · Score: 1
      that's 2 months from the time you turn it on to the time it's ready to use. after that you leave it on, and throw as much stuff up there as you like.

      Launch rate capacity of a launch loop is ultimately limited by the temperature and cooling rate of the rotor to 80 per hour, but that would require a 17 GW power station; a more modest 500 MW power station is sufficient for 35 launches per day.

      --
      404: sig not found.
  46. my wish list by wkk2 · · Score: 1

    1) Scrap the moon missions.
    2) Eliminate the bureaucrats at NASA and trust the employees to actually do the work with jobs based on meeting objectives
    3) Install laser based deep space communications platforms at Lagrange points (think Gbps to Pluto)
    4) Send a small habitat to orbit Mars with lots of supplies
    5) Send 4 rovers and sample-return ascent vehicles to Mars and control them from the habitat to reduce control latency. The return samples can be isolated and studied in the habitat.
    6) Do a human visit to Phobos from the habitat
    7) Do an automated sample return from an active ridge/volcano on two outer moons.
    8) Build a planet finder to analyze exo-planet atmospheres
    9) Replace congress with people that can manage finances and long-term goals

    I suspect that only #1 will occur during the lifetime of anyone alive today.

  47. Blah,.. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    When NASA has to get advice from outside sources,..then NASA needs to be shutdown or replaced.
    It's like congress going to China for advice on how to run America.
    It's NASA's job to prioritize projects and make decisions.
    But then again,..NASA is run by bureaucracy and politicians, and not scientists and engineers anymore that do REAL work.

  48. Re:Probes. Lots of Probes. by Belial6 · · Score: 1

    Well, obviously the way you get the Mars mission to keep it's funding is to lunch it with a bunch of 8 year olds on board. That way we can 'Think of the Children'. It wouldn't hurt to make sure that Al-Queda (or even someone in a Hollywood sound stage claiming to be Al-Queda) got a ship on the same flight path and a declaration that they are claiming Mars in the name of Islam to save it from the evil Americans. Then you could get some of that tasty tasty military money.

  49. Re:Probes. Lots of Probes. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Dude, this is America! We don't wait for things! Even the 6 months it takes to get to Mars is pushing it...the way our attention span is, we'd probably launch the astronauts to Mars, and then 3 months later some Congresscritter would recommend cutting out this silly "Mars mission" from the budget, because no one even remembers what that was for, and use the money to build a new movie theater in his district (named after him, naturally).

    I'm sure you made a good point, but your crazy run-on sentence was too long for my short, American attention span.

  50. Re:Probes. Lots of Probes. by elrous0 · · Score: 2, Informative

    A couple of hundred years?!? I don't think you appreciate the scale we're talking here to the nearest solar systems. The fastest probes we've ever launched took like 9-10 years just to reach the edge of the solar system--just a few light *hours* away. The nearest solar systems are several light *years* away. So you're not looking at a few hundred years--more like tens of thousands of years. Not only that, but we also don't have the math or craft to hit anything with the kind of precision that far away, and no way to stop them once they get there even if you could make it.

    --
    SJW: Someone who has run out of real oppression, and has to fake it.
  51. Re:Probes. Lots of Probes. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 0

    Oh, they'll be fine... just make sure they either have both genders or a way to get back.

  52. An Exercise in Sci-Fi Writing by eldavojohn · · Score: 1

    A couple of hundred years?!? I don't think you appreciate the scale we're talking here to the nearest solar systems. The fastest probes we've ever launched took like 9-10 years just to reach the edge of the solar system--just a few light *hours* away. The nearest solar systems are several light *years* away. So you're not looking at a few hundred years--more like tens of thousands of years. Not only that, but we also don't have the math or craft to hit anything with the kind of precision that far away, and no way to stop them once they get there even if you could make it.

    You're right. And that was a stab in the dark on my part (it is by and large a joke post honestly). But when I said solar sail, I meant pretty big ones. Like this article mentions you might be able to net an acceleration of 1 millimeter per second per second acceleration from the sail. Maybe that's not reasonable but after nine years, you'd already be traveling a million kilometers per hour faster than when you left our system. With a solar sail, Voyager and other craft would have reached the end of our system much faster.

    The sail would then, at a little bit before the half way marker, be flipped backwards so that the membrane would actually slow the ship down on its approach to Alpha Centauri. It would slow to a relative stop near the planet and (assuming everything survived) would use its thrusters for the only purpose they have -- plummeting it to the planet revolving around Alpha Centauri. Then you just need to wait another decade for the data to return to earth. Relatively quick, yes? Extra-solar expeditions need to be thought of in terms of generations not years so why don't we get started now?

    I haven't worked all the math out but considering what solar sails might be able to do for us, you can't just compare this to existing craft and draw your metrics from that. Those craft only had initial boosts and will not accelerate.

    Also, my diagram had a laser. You forgot to point out that that is unnecessary weight and power usage.

    --
    My work here is dung.
    1. Re:An Exercise in Sci-Fi Writing by hardburn · · Score: 1

      I'm not aware of confirmed exoplanets around alpha cenauri. If you want to do this, it's going to have to be a more general mission to explore the system up close without assuming the existence of planetary bodies.

      --
      Not a typewriter
  53. Not another "been there, done that" by Will.Woodhull · · Score: 1

    Do first thing's first.

    Putting a man on Mars, while definitely cool, could easily be just another "been there, done that" vacation from steady progress, like the later Apollo missions were.

    Beginning an assessment of lunar resources is the next significant step we can take. What is up there? Anything that we can use as rocket fuel, or as structural material? Can concrete prefabs made of lunar regolith be shipped down to LEO for use in stone space stations at a lower cost than sending exotic materials up from Earth? That's actually likely. Also, while the Moon is very poor in heavy elements in general, it has been collecting meteors for a few billion years: are there any local deposits of iron and nickel that we could use? Something just 0.35% the size of New Jersey (equivalent to the Mesabi Range of Minnesota)? That is a pretty small dot on a lunar map, but just one find like that would provide enough high grade steel for more than a hundred years of spaceship manufacture. How about other minerals? Is there a rich splash of pitchblend nodules near the surface of the regolith in some lunar sea?

    We will need the equivalent of several Lewis and Clark expeditions to begin to estimate the potential up there. Much of this will be done by robots, but it makes sense to have many of these robots under the control of lunar explorers, who could easily do first hand inspections of unexpected findings. The explorers would be also experimenting with how to live under conditions that are harsher than Mars in many ways, but also much easier to support from Earth when problems arise.

    At the same time we are exploring the Moon, we can be putting more robots on Mars, and sending more satellites to rendezvous with near Earth objects of interest. Perhaps we will find that we can use lunar resources to reduce the costs of these other programs. There are certainly things the Moon experience can teach us that will help make these other probes, and the eventual manned Mars station, more successful.

    --
    Will
  54. Appointing a panel... by NateTech · · Score: 1

    ... and "seeking input" is called a "stalling technique".

    The White House doesn't give a shit what any of us think about anything under this Administration. Get used to it.

    --
    +++OK ATH
  55. von Neumann probe by Latinhypercube · · Score: 1

    From Wikipedia:-
    "In theory, a self-replicating spacecraft could be sent to a neighbouring star-system, where it would seek out raw materials (extracted from asteroids, moons, gas giants, etc.) to create replicas of itself. These replicas would then be sent out to other star systems, repeating the process in an exponentially increasing pattern."

    Self-replicating spacecraft WIKIPEDIA

  56. Robert had my plan by Phoghat · · Score: 1
    You want a permanent Moon colony? Here's the way you do it:

    "The Moon Is a Harsh Mistress"

    --
    Think of how stupid the average person is, and realize half of them are stupider than that.
  57. Moderators asleep at the wheel again.... by rts008 · · Score: 1

    *disclaimer*
    I am a NASA brat, and worked for NASA myself for two years prior to entering the US Army in 1977. [NTTF** building at Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA]
    I used to 'play astronaut' in the Mercury and Gemini capsules they had mounted in front of the Control Center building my father worked in when I was a kid. [it still amazes me to this day: my wondering how two astronauts in their bulky spacesuits could fit in the Gemini capsule...they must have lubed them and used shoehorns and hydraulic presses to fit them in!]
    */disclaimer*

    As far as my recollection goes, your comment may be the most insightful, informative, imbued with common sense, and under-rated yet on this subject here on /..

    [rhetorical question]
    How did this escape 'through the roof' style positive mod points?
    [/rhetorical question]

    In typical /. meme fashion...
    I would like to subscribe to your newsletter!

    **NTTF=Network Test and Training Facility...I was actually a subcontractor working for 'Bendix Field Engineering Corp' as a 'Logistics Specialist'[think glorified parts-counter clerk]. The CSC [Computer Science Corporation] and the Communications section were required to be manned 24/7 so we were required to be there in case they needed parts to keep those mission critical operations running.
    Yes, I was that annoying guy at the parts counter that always wanted the 'make, model number, and serial number' to help you. :-)
    Actually, they usually came in with the part an/or a FSN [Federal Stock Number], and the process was much easier than getting a part for your car

    --
    Down With Slashdot BETA!!! I've been around the corner and seen the oliphant; you can only abuse me from your perspecti