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The Inside Story of Microsoft's 'Project Natal'
Lanxon writes "Wired has published a lengthy behind-the-scenes feature documenting the inception, development and technological struggles of Microsoft's Project Natal, now known as Kinect. The feature is the result of conversations the magazine had with a number of key developers and researchers behind the project, and unprecedented access to Microsoft Research in a number of countries, over the course of three years."
What's the likelihood that they will recoup enough money to have made this worthwhile? Microsoft has put a HUGE amount of money and effort behind development & advertising for Natal/Kinect...but how many people are really going to buy it?
Look at the Playstation Move...a huge amount of promotion and hype leading up to its release, and then barely a peep about it after hitting the streets. The same thing will likely happen with Kinect. If it really does retail for $150 as has been widely reported, then it will pretty much be DOA.
How can they expect to sell what amounts to a novelty for half the cost of the entire console?
Living With a Nerd
There is a lot of hype around "Project Natal"/Kinect but, outside of Microsoft and a few high-ranking members of the press has anyone ever actually -used- one of them?
I mean, what happens when this turns out to be the 360's version of the "Eye Toy" for the PS2?
Taxation is legalized theft, no more, no less.
This article mentions the Star Trek Holodeck, somewhere on page 1. Then, with that on my mind, the rest of the article didn't live up. Now I expect a holodeck. Nothing less.
Macy's I think? Ordinary people can try it.
By all accounts, yes, it is 360's EyeToy. You've got the same kind of games, with a little better control and better graphics.
http://lkml.org/lkml/2005/8/20/95
Without reading the stupid article, which company did they end up buying out for this product?
Who would win this election: Andrew Weiner vs Andrew Weiner's weiner.
"Have they added enough padding to the conference room walls? When Ballmer finds out the terrible ROI on this crap, there will be an epic chair throwing incident."
And if the developers have the hardware in the room, tracking Ballmer, it would serve as a great field test of the device.
www.eFax.com are spammers
If you had enough cash, I'm sure you could make a basic holodeck, you just need a room, and 5, 3d tv's big enough to cover the entire walls and celing and a kinect to use as a controller and krap load of pc, to do all the rendering. Like I said this kinect thing is just the first step to a holodeck type thing. Some companies have alrady said they are going to sell 3d tv's that don't need those damn glasses, so it's just a matter of time before all of the tech can be scaled down.
Funny how there isn't a single occurrence of the words Wii or Nintendo in that interview.
**TODO** Steal someone elses sig.
“Since the dawn of time, humanity’s long journey has led us to countless discoveries, Yet with each leap forward for civilisation, more people have been left behind. But our quest has taken us to a completely new horizon. History is about to be rewritten. This time human beings will be at the centre -- and the machines will be the ones that adapt. After five million years of evolution, is it possible that the future of humanity is humanity itself?”
That the article repeats verbatim such a quote from Microsoft's presentation without even a slight nod to the gross self-aggrandization clued me to the fact that the whole piece is yet another corporate advertisement disguised as news.
I mean, in addition to the whole story starting with an emergency meeting on mid 2007 about the need to "reimagine a new direction for the Xbox" yet failing to point out it was all due to the runaway success of the Wii. It actually sticks out like a sore thumb to see these VPs panicking about something that the article refuses to acknowledge exists.
The feature is the result of conversations the magazine had with a number of key developers and researchers behind the project, and unprecedented access to several Wii consoles in the break room.
He who knows best knows how little he knows. - Thomas Jefferson
It reminds me of drama-documentary writing. If you removed all the breathless amazement and hyperbole the article would be reduced to one-tenth of its original size.
Since I'm busy procrastinating, I made the article as boring and uninformative as possible:
With Kinect, Microsoft plans to improve how we interact with consoles. But first they had to solve a few problems.
'Kinect', Microsoft’s new motion-sensing system for the Xbox 360, does away with the game controller in favour of the player’s own body. It can track your body in real time, recognise who in the room is playing and respond to voice commands. Its creators call it a "natural user interface" or NUI.
Reliably decoding human movements and voices is quite difficult. But they managed it in the end.
The Xbox team contracted PrimeSense to provide Kinect’s depth sensor chip and reference design. Impressed with the depth-sensing capability, a small team quickly prototyped around 70 minigames. The possibilities quickly became clear, impressing executives.
Kinect Sports is currently undergoing playtesting in Warwickshire.
Because people wont look at it as "the price of half a console" they will look at it as "the price of 2 1/2 games". People spent $150 a month on TV + Internet, they will have no problem spending that on their kids for christmas in order to place something that isnt "run around and blow up other kids".
Kinect has no mouth, but it must scream.
Man, that so made me lol!
3DV Systems, an Israeli company, so it seems: http://www.engadget.com/2009/06/03/microsofts-project-natal-roots-revealed-3dv-systems-zcam/
Probably find more info with a search on "3DV Systems" on the GOOG.
Why does Kinect seem familiar? Microsoft saying "It will change the industry" and "Big players are developing it" and "You'll wonder how you ever did anything without it!" and "Everything will change after this". Oh yeah, this is what they said with Windows Mobile 6.
The more reports I get back the more it seems like just with Windows Mobile 6 that marketing is over promising features. That isn't to say Kinect is "snake oil" because of a lot of it does seem to work but that it is rough...."rougher" than they want to let on. So we'll get a big advertising blitz, Microsoft will declare it was a huge success, and then summary die because it is expensive and never quite work as smooth as they advertised while the competition runs wild. All of this is like WinMo6.
Anyhow, there is some merit to the tech but it feels like it is going in the wrong direction. Its like the belief one can effectively replace a keyboard with voice recognition. VR is useful in itself but not as a keyboard replacement! As an HMI issue, gesture controls found on Wii "work" because the interface is simplified not because of waggle. Replacing waggle sticks with Kinect without doing the requisite "simplification" is going to be a disaster. I wish they would abandon schemes like "replacing the controller for games" that are more smoke and mirrors than practical execution. Go with practical stuff like if my console notices I put the controller down to answer the phone, door, kids jump in my lap, or whatever, pause the game. If the console notice I'm no long in front of my TV for an extended period of time, go into hibernate mode. Stuff like this is more useful than trying to figure out how build a fighting game by waving my arms and kicking with my legs.
But in any event, $150us is too much for all of it. If it was built in at the start that would be one thing but it is too late now.
I'll play Kinectimals in my Garanimals while eating Lunchables with my runcible spoon.
Microsoft was caught faking their demos for their Eye Toy style motion controls for the past two E3s.
And first had reports constantly talk of horrible lag between arm movements and response.
You can't play games while sitting down.
You need to have a relatively large area completely clear in whatever room you are using it in.
There are lighting issues that cause the system to have trouble recognizing motion.
There are clothing issues that cause the system to have trouble recognizing motion.
It doesn't recognize fine motions like finger actions.
It only supports two players.
It should be obvious why Microsoft was forced to fake their demos and so far there has been almost zero real world demos outside of carefully controlled showings with people Microsoft is certain are going to hype the product.
Not that any of that really matters. There isn't any game even remotely interesting or fun that Microsoft has show for the system. When Nintendo showed off the Wii they were confident enough to let everyone at the very first E3 where it was shown play it and had games that both gamers and non-gamers really wanted to play.
Most likely the only people who will end up buying this shoddy tech from Microsoft are the same ones who jumped on the dead HD-DVD format.
What was Microsoft going to do?
They had been in the console market for 8 years and have gotten nowhere. Some 7 or 8 billion in losses - much higher if you calculate how many other products in Microsoft's E&D division have been hiding the true Xbox generated losses. They have no hardware design and manufacturing capabilities to be able to compete with Sony. They have a joke internal game development studio array - only 3 or so first party studios compared to Sony's gigantic 21 or so and Nintendo with 10.
The 360 is dead in Asia just like the first Xbox. The 360 is dead all across Europe outside of the UK just like the first Xbox. No one at Microsoft is any mood to let the idiots running the Xbox project have a few more billion to make new Xbox hardware with Baller's Google obsession blowing through billions every year and Microsoft's stock price completely dead in the water.
So they bought a company with old PS2 Eye Toy style motion recognition hardware and slapped it on the old defective 360 hardware. Better than just killing the Xbox disaster outright. They might be able to milk another year of so 60 dollar a year online fees out of the suckers paying for it now. Won't come close to paying for the billions Microsoft wasted on the Xbox disaster, but its better than nothing.
Time for Microsoft to turn their attention to the fucked up and dying PC games market. The large number of big name PC game developers supporting the Mac while they fuck around with the piece of shit Xbox 360 has to be sending off alarms for the people who do actually make a successful product at Microsoft, their OS software. If you can start to play most major games on Macs I could easily see OS X jumping into the 20-30 percent range in marketshare.
I hate to sound cynical, but this will only be the 3rd Wiimote killer since the 6-axis took it's aim. With all of Kinect's extra features over the de facto, it should fit really nicely next to all of the iPod-killers of yor.
The Kinect is the Firewire of the Firewire-USB war. Overly expensive and unsupported compared to it's contemporary cousin even if it may have better technology. It only takes a (USB2-style) revision to make the things Kinect has moot and the populace moves on...
Once you start despising the jerks, you become one.
Yesterday I watched a TV show on German TV in which they used the Kinect system. It was broadcast on a major channel watched by millions. Two players had to play against each other in a quite unspectacular game. It was embarrassing, both due to the boring gameplay and the technical weaknesses of the system. During the first game, suddenly the split-screen switched to a single screen such that only one player could see his avatar. Nobody knew why and the TV show host quickly reacted and said "well, now you had a training run". After the second run one of the players complained that his moves were not recognized at all. He kept jumping all the time but the cameras obviously did not capture these jumps.
Seriously, it looks dumb, it apparently doesn't work that well with numerous reports of lag and what not and it's an over priced add-on aimed at Wii owners on a teenage spastic's system. I sense failure and that's why MS is sending out press releases about shortages. They're making less units to reduce to risk and create fake supply issues.
Ballmer has fucked up MS, imo.
Sounds like a great thing to pick up on Craigslist for 75% off, when the early adopters figure out it is boring and doesn't work with Madden.
I was in Best Buy last weekend and they were demonstrating the Kinect. My 9 year old daughter, who doesn't like to play console based video games, started playing one of the demos. It was sort of like Breakout, but you kicked or punched the balls instead of using a remote. I had a hard time getting her to leave.
You're right, this isn't a Wiimote killer. The Sony Move is an attempt at a Wiimote killer. This is more like the Wiimote + Balance Board (which I own).
Having used the Balance Board, it's got major limitations. There are games which want to you "jump" on the Wii (Snowboarding), but if you actually jump, the game freezes and displays a warning: Do not jump on the balance board. Major gameplay killer.
Kinect sees your entire body and can handle jumping, moving, and more, without a controller. Start a game by moving your hand over the on-screen button. This will be awesome for casual and party gaming, since nobody's controller will be out of batteries.
This isn't a Wiimote killer, it's a game-changer. Microsoft has a hit with this one. Until Sony's mind-reading controller comes out, that is...
Did any of you see the demo of "Dance Central" at E3 this year? It was amazing! Dance Dance Revolution has sold millions; the dance and excercise market for video game consoles is not small. No other console can compete with the ability to simultaneously track arms, legs, head, and body for use in a dance or exercise game. I'm convinced that once this is out there and you can try it at your friend's house or the store, you'll see that all other dance and exercise games are obsolete. The full body immersive experience you can get with Kinect is far superior to anything you can get with a dance pad or handheld wands.
From the demos I've seen, I'm convinced that this will sell really well in the dance, exercise, and sports genres. Microsoft also hopes to bring non-gamers into the fold with this release, and I have no idea how well it will do on that front. But the technology is a nice leap forward. I look forward to seeing what MS and other game developers can do with it.
A bit offtopic, but Firewire was a serious security problem. It allowed a device direct access to the system's memory. Sure that made it blazing fast compared with USB, and did have other uses, but it was somewhat problematic in that you had to trust anything you stuck in there, even things which didn't have user writable memory. And unfortunately it wasn't every particularly well advertised that what one was risking.
No worries, MS now owns a controlling interest in companies that make chairs and companies that fix holes in walls.
Trivia point: USB never got close to the performance of firewire. What they did was figure out how to get a bigger number out there on the box.
A 400Mb/s FireWire connection runs rings around a "480"Mb/s USB2.
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Both MS & Sony want to extend console lifetimes past the 5 years they have been since the 80's, to a 10 year cycle. The problem is, the hardware can't keep up with that cycle.
Both Sony & MS are finally either breaking even on the consoles, or making a little profit now from the hardware (not counting research costs, errors, etc) so they want to stretch out the life of these products as much as they can.
And they will, of course, fail. Move, Kinetic can NOT keep their sales going for 5 years. No add on to a console has ever extended it's life, in fact, if you look at sega, you might say add on's can actually kill your business if done wrong. And MS isn't afraid of dumping crap that fails really quick (kin anyone?) even before they give it a chance.
This is my prediction. Move & Kindle will have an okay xmas, and might even do just okay till next season. Of course, Nintendo will be making it's Wii2/WiiHD or whatever it's next gen will be, and that will probably be out within 2 years. Which will leave MS & Sony scrambling again to get new consoles out.
Meanwhile, PC gaming will surge up again, as people will want to the better gaming experience.
And i'm basing this all on history. On the video game market, on the various companies histories, and of course, on my own intuition.
Be seeing you...
I guess they got the idea from Nintendo. First thought that the new thing they had will be a complete flop. After a year they saw that hey it works and now 3 years later, they have their own product. Just that.. it's 4 years too late.
and I enjoyed it. I got to play the river race game (which I admit was meh), and joy ride (which I REALLY liked). First racing game I ever actually enjoyed. That being said, I look at the voice interaction as well, which everybody seems to miss. I look at RTS games (a genre that is seriously lacking on ALL consoles), and realize that voice interaction + body language is a great way to quickly play an RTS (even fast than mouse scrolling and hotkeys even). I am also hoping to see some peripherals come out for this. A lot of people seem to have one complaint: they want something in their hands while they play. Well, give them some stuff. A light gun to be used in FPS, or a wheel for racing games. I don't think that Kinect by itself will dominate, but it will definitely add some great features to other games (RPGs should become VERY interesting)
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