Microsoft Ready To Talk Windows On ARM
An anonymous reader writes "After many months of working in secret, Microsoft is nearly ready to start talking about its plans to bring Windows to ARM-based processors. However, while the company is set to discuss the effort at next month's Consumer Electronics Show, there is still a lot that must be done before such products can hit the market. Among the steps needed is for hardware makers to create ARM-compatible drivers, a time-consuming effort that explains in part why Microsoft is talking about the initiative well ahead of any products being ready. Meanwhile, Ubuntu is already starting to ship on some ARM devices and running on many others."
It's not exactly a surprise. Don't produce something for ARM, and it's likely that Microsoft will be left in the dust in the few years on a major platform. I wonder if the NT guts of newer versions of Windows are still as portable as they were a decade ago.
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Meanwhile, many other Linux distros have been shipping on ARM devices since before Ubuntu was a distribution.
...devices and running on many others."
Eh. Debian has fully supported ARM for years.
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But Windows' main (and practically lone) selling point is that it works with all your old software. If they rewrite it for ARM, it may say "Windows" on it but it won't run your apps or play your games.
And I'm sure users will enjoy discovering that after they buy "Windows" tablets and netbooks.
How can I believe you when you tell me what I don't want to hear?
If they want to keep relevant on cheap, portable devices - they'd better support ARM.
Even the atoms use a lot more juice, and for simple appliances ARM can be enough horsepower.
Although - they might be advised not to put too much into it, as I don't think there will be much margin on SW for $200 devices and whatnot... And good luck with getting manufacturers to make ARM drivers, I think they'll be needing it.
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Why port it to ARM and talk about it if there's no clear strategy or reason for doing so?
It's odd that Intel are trying to get people off ARM and onto Atom (low power x86) while Microsoft are thinking of moving people from Intel to ARM.
And yet many *nixs through the last few decades have managed to port to other architectures. Heck, Linux can be compiled, so it's hardly that big an issue. NT was supposedly built to be portable and crossplatform from the very beginning, and in a way, we already seeing two architectures with 64-bit versions of Windows.
At any rate, the failings on the Alpha had nothing to do with architecture, and everything to do with the fact that, by and large, the Alpha platform failed. If Alpha had in fact taken off I have no doubt that Microsoft would have happily kept producing NT for it.
ARM has already proven itself, and there's a significant argument for Microsoft coming on board. If it doesn't have programmers who know how to manage an operating system codebase across multiple platforms, well, there are several kernel-level programmers out there that could be brought in, but honestly, I doubt it's a problem. I wouldn't even be surprised if they already have the kernel running on ARM hardware, but as the article says, the issues are drivers, just like they were for 64bit versions of Windows when Server 2003 x64 and WinXP x64 came out. The incentive for manufacturers to write Windows ARM drivers is going to pretty huge, so I doubt that will be a problem.
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Eh. Debian has fully supported ARM for years.
Indeed - I've been using Debian on ARM devices for at least 12 years. I'm always amused when someone new comes along and assumes a big distro running on ARM is a new thing.
Streamlined hardware with bloated software? Doesnt sound like a great combo IMO.
Isn't Microsoft always talking about initiatives well ahead of products being ready?
As countless articles have already pointed out, it's extremely strange for Microsoft to start "porting" or whatever Windows 7 [embedded|CE|whatever] to ARM. They made a touch interface, they supposedly think it's awesome.. why aren't they using it?
Talk about fragmentation.. This is just making development/platform targeting even worse, with no gain.
Ubuntu is the Arduino of Linux distros.
Everyone is rushing to get on the platform you were running on twenty years ago!
Time for you to make a dramatic comeback and show how an ARM powered Operating System is done properly.
Why are they trying to keep Windows? Yes it's a well-known brand name, but so is Microsoft. All they have to do is create a tablet-specific OS and leave all the compatibility headaches behind. And even without any compatibility headaches, most Windows applications weren't written with a touch interface in mind, so having a goal of Windows on a tablet is just asking for trouble.
Microsoft has an opportunity to start fresh, leave the Windows problems behind and create something new. But yet they don't.
With the Chrome OS hardware/software in a kind of semi-public test phase with fairly imminent general release, even though the initial hardware (both the Cr-48 and the announced initial planned consumer units) is x86, there is some pressure on MS, since Chromium OS -- including Native Client -- as I understand is already working on ARM and Google has stated that they intend to work with hardware manufacturers to get branded Chrome OS delivered on ARM devices.
Announcing plans for Windows on ARM is potentially a way to try to dilute manufacturer support for Chrome OS on ARM to avoid or at least mitigate Google getting a foothold in the OS market at the inexpensive end of the keyboard & pointing device market that Windows still dominates.
Especially once Portable Native Client is working (delivering code over the web in LLVM bit code form that is verified on the client and compiled to native code for x86, ARM, and potentially future supported platforms) rather than NaCl only using platform-specific compiled code, Chrome OS may be one of the strongest challenges MS has seen in that market since its dominance was established.
If you don't mind could you please share more about your setup and what your user experience is compared to any other x86 systems you have? Thanks
NT was actually more stable on Alpha than it ever was on x86...
Drivers are not really a problem for ARM, since most of these devices will be small (tablets, netbooks etc) with fixed hardware, the hardware manufacturer will supply the necessary drivers.
The problem is apps...
Existing windows apps would need to be at the very least recompiled (or may require significantly more work depending on the code), and with most apps being closed source only the original vendor is in a position to do that... Now as with alpha, ppc mips and ia64, commercial vendors won't port their apps unless they see a market for them... And end users wont buy the platform unless they see available apps, catch 22.
Linux doesn't really have this problem because the vast majority of applications are open source, and have already been compiled for multiple architectures. If the original author hasn't ever tried to compile the app for another platform, chances are one of the distributors has (debian has been supporting arm cpus for years)...
The only advantage ARM has over alpha/ppc/mips/ia64 is cost of hardware, if those platforms had been price competitive with x86 they would have had a lot more sales to linux users (i know many people who wanted an alpha but just couldn't justify the cost).
There is a lot to be said for writing new applications which are actually designed for a tablet or netbook, rather than trying to shoehorn desktop apps onto small devices with different input methods... But if you're going to write new apps, why bother writing them for win32/arm instead of simply writing them for linux?
The only advantage windows has in this area is familiarity, they would lose their traditional selling point of compatibility/lockin, if you go arm you will need new apps regardless and if people have learned anything over the past 15 years they should take this chance to break free of the lock-in rather than getting caught up in another round.
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This is a strange article; Microsoft has had their Win32-based Windows CE operating system running on ARM processors for 14 years. In many respects, Windows CE (now called Windows Embedded Compact, for some confusing reason) is a far superior operating system to desktop Windows, especially for the sorts of devices that are going to typically be running ARM processors.
Microsoft had the right idea 14 years ago; create a new operating system from scratch that is appropriate for lower-power processors and provide as much API compatibility as possible but without layering on all the bloat. They'd be better off moving Windows CE to the desktop -- preferably with a modern graphics API and touch support -- something like what Apple is trying to do with iOS.
There is a metric ton of software available. Lots of web browsers, window managers, office suites etc. make for a nice experience. Windows will have many years worth of software ecosystem catch up to play. In the ballpark of a 500-800MHz or better processor and 192MBs RAM (256 is a lot nicer) is required for a pleasant user experience.
Microsoft has an excellent track record of supporting Windows on non-X86 processors. MIPS, PowerPC, DecAlpha, Itanium. With such an excellent track record, I am sure, the industry will take it very seriously and we will see tons of devices, computers in the market very quickly. Thank you Microsoft.
Lots of people commenting that Microsoft is missing the point: Apps.
.NET won't need a recompile for the new architecture. In fact, I'd imagine that's part of their plans for world domination: Imagine the power of targeting one platform, and having your stuff run on Xbox360 (console), Winodws Phone 7 (mobile / tablet), and Desktop (x86/arm)?
But they're not missing the point. Anything written for
I don't think they're getting the credit they deserve, here.
NT was actually more stable on Alpha than it ever was on x86...
Alpha NT was the best you could get at the time for Windows, but the FX86 or whatever software DEC offered to translate x86 to AXP can be very annoying, and after a while, not worth the additional hardware stability. The main benefit I got was that because I couldn't play very many games worth a damn, it got me off the game upgrade cycle so the computer lasted me eight years before I gave up, instead of two before I wanted to do major upgrades for the next game. I replaced it with a used Intel-based workstation, I've found that and succeeding workstations to be pretty much as stable. Maybe the lesson was to buy well-engineered and well-built components with good drivers.
Join #debian-arm at irc.debian.org, pretty sure they can help.
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Some combination of git and libz is flaky as hell, though. That's the biggest problem I've had.
Do you even lift?
These aren't the 'roids you're looking for.
I remember seeing Linux running on Netwinders sometime around 1998.
sigh.
It's for the mobile platform. It would be a different set of apps.
Not the recompiling is really the difficult.
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How many real apps like Java and Adobe Flash can run in these alternative Linux platforms? Commercial apps only focus on 98% of the marketshare and deliberately make sure it wont run on anything else to cut down on support costs. Even Adobe tried to abandon the mac a decade ago.
The only thing portable are open source apps. That is the true problem. The Arm would have to emulate x86 to be optimal. All the win32 server apps will not be compiled for anything else as the PHB's love their low support costs. All the open software is for Linux. Sure Apache and PHP exists for Windows but how many people use it for a serious production environment? I use it to write software that will run on Unix when it is done.
Microsoft has a problem here. My guess is the arm on server blades are the only true market besides some Windows7 mobile tablets/phones. It is dead on the desktop. Solarisx86 should serve as an example of trying to port.
If Joe Six pack can't run World of Warcraft above 5 fps in emulation there will be hell to pay.
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I wonder if the NT guts of newer versions of Windows are still as portable as they were a decade ago.
My understanding is that even though non-x86 retail versions are no longer available MS still built non-x86 versions for internal testing in order to maintain/verify portability of code. It also helps for debugging. A problem that is difficult to reproduce on one hardware platform is sometimes much more apparent on another hardware platform.
The kernel (for Linux) is cross-platform and only requires minor changes (the x86-bits). The same could be said for NT if NT hasn't done major x86 optimizations or ASM code.
The main problem is the applications. You can't just take a random app in Linux and put it on an ARM-based system. Some will cross-compile if the developer wrote very good code or if you're willing to do minor changes, others are written in interpreted languages like Perl. But besides that, the applications are limited.
And if you're going to rewrite or write your application from scratch, why not forgo the whole paying for licensing deal and just use a proven and stable system that has already been running on those type of CPU's for years. Windows for ARM will not be without major bugs and inconveniences for at least a few years and it's not like you could fix it yourself or recompile the kernel if your custom SOC doesn't behave well with the stock kernel.
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The last time that MS released Windows for a non-x86 platform, people did 99% of their computer activity locally on their computer. Today, many people do 99% of their computer activity in the web browser over the internet. While backward compatibility is a big deal to some of us, it is naive to think that it is to most people. Honestly, as long as it runs IE, java, flash, VPN, remote desktop and MediaPlayer, they will have a decent sized legitimate market for the product.
The problem is apps...
Apps are not going to be a problem when you are porting from an OS with a 90% share of the market as whole.
Mobile vs. Desktop (Global)
Mobile vs. Desktop (North America)
if you go arm you will need new apps regardless and if people have learned anything over the past 15 years they should take this chance to break free of the lock-in rather than getting caught up in another round.
Lock-in never seems to trouble anyone but the geek.
Top 5 Operating Systems (Global)
Top 8 Mobile OSs In North America
Wrong way around. Debian has supported ARM for a while, but new ARM devices are shipping with Ubuntu preinstalled. That's the new development - there have been Linux-based ARM devices before, but they've usually been embedded devices. You can pick up a pretty cheap ARM tablet from China with Ubuntu installed now (there are a few hundred for about £100 on eBay at the moment, typically with something like a 600MHz Samsung ARM11 CPU).
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Microsoft's success with end-users is almost entirely predicated on compatibility for third party software. Windows for ARM would not be able to execute Windows for x86 code in any reasonable way. MS would want to have stringent licensing restrictions at significant cost while Google just doesn't care or have reason to care and will let OEMs do what they will. For end-users, no benefit is available from Windows, for manufacturers, the software is an expense that is not recoverable via crapware preloads like in x86 world.
Of course, MS could have an advantage with the device manufacturers here, but only if it is willing to nearly give away the OS for free to manufacturers. A *large* part of the consumer electronics experience is governed by the software. A software update can give a customer everything they wanted in a new device without buying a new device. If the software is consumer friendly and let's the user update to latest edition for free, many will opt to do so instead of buying a new device, to the chagrin of the manufacturers who want to move more volume. Meanwhile, if MS offers an OS that would cost $100 to update and the cost of a new device (including the update they wanted) is $200, a lot of customers will just go ahead and get a new device, giving a bump for the market. For manufacturers to get the numbers so close MS would have to take away a relatively small revenue amount per purchase. Essentially amounts to colluding with manufacturers to screw the consumer over by artificially keeping retail prices up and precluding any other inexpensive path to updates. Microsoft surely would never do such a thing...
Oh and finally, chasing Google's tail on this is the wrong way to do it anyway. Google's ChromeOS *and* android is a mistake, and MS probably would do better by having a converged phone+netbook+tablet platform instead of trying to copy over the desktop platform and suffer odd overlap between their 'phone' and 'desktop' platform on smallish arm systems.
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They can just trot down to the Azure lab and ask Dave Cutler how he got it to work last time.
The NT dev team's method is no secret, throw everything out and start from scratch.
FWIW, note "NT" not "Windows NT", it actually started as "OS/2 NT". Back in the day MS was telling people that Windows was a temporary thing for users sticking with DOS rather than migrating to OS/2 1.x plus the Presentation Manager GUI, a 16-bit protected mode environment. IBM was going to do a more expedient x86-only 32-bit version, OS/2 2.0, while Microsoft was going to do a 32-bit portable version targeting various CPU architectures, OS/2 NT. At some point Microsoft decided to split up with IBM and renamed the product Windows NT.
"They are also a quarter of the speed."
Apparently you are talking about clock speed, but 2 GHz or 2.5 GHz is not slow compared to the Intel Atom. The speeds are equivalent.
Then it will only run one program at a time and be issued in 4 versions.
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But if you're not going to run anything which is tied to windows, then what's the point paying more for windows?
Linux runs a browser, java, flash, vpn, rdesktop and a media player - and it costs less than windows. Backwards compatibility is about the only selling point windows really has.
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The NT Kernel might be, even after all this time slapping whatever each release thinks is a useful feature into it, but who cares about that. I think I can guarantee Office will not run on ARM ...
I believe MS Office Mac 2008 targeted Intel and PowerPC cpu architectures, that would make it highly portable.
Porting *from* an os with 90% share?
What you port from doesn't matter, if your porting from an os with 90% share you could be porting *to* beos, or vms...
What matters is the share of the os your porting *to*, if that os has no users then closed source apps will never be ported.
If there are no apps, then no users will use the os.
Open source apps will probably be ported if anyone cares enough, but then if an app is open source it probably already runs on linux/arm anyway.
Windows already failed on alpha, mips, ppc and ia64, primarily due to lack of apps... (yes the ia64 port still exists but its being scaled back and looks likely to be dropped).
Theres also the matter of history...
Windows apps have traditionally been written for x86 only, and when targeting a single architecture you can make various assumptions which can cause breakage when the code is compiled for a different cpu... Think endian issues, and differently sized data types etc...
Linux however is a unix clone, and unix clones were already widely used on different architectures, even before linux was ported to different processor types, so most unix source code is fairly portable across different hardware. I have run linux on various kinds of non x86 hardware for years and very rarely had problems compiling things...
Lock-in should trouble anyone trying to run a business, no well managed business would ever let itself get locked in to a single supplier in any other field... Why should software be treated any differently?
Individuals should care too, but generally have less invested in it (tho im sure there are people who still remember being stuck with a betamax vcr or hd-dvd player)...
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i have to say microsoft better call a butcher to cut the fat and bloat out of their current OS before i would bother to use it, i would rather run a lightweight Linux distro on an ARM than the bloated crap microsoft has, i would be ashamed to admit i was a microsoft employee if i worked for them.
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He asked about the user experience, you pedantic fuck.
You won't have any problems with .NET apps though - even those which directly access system DLLs. So as long as most of your software is built with .NET on Windows, you might be just fine.
Can I sell you a clue?
Please?
You only have to step very slightly outside of the core .NET namespaces (system.*) before .NET has problems being portable between Windows 7, Vista, and XP. Even System.Net.* behaves slightly differently on each of those platforms.
I couldn't have said it better. What would be the point of porting the desktop Windows to ARM when MS is already in that market segment with Windows CE?
What would the difference be?
No x86 software would work on it and it would be a reimplementation of the win32 API. Which would be...Windows CE.
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rediculous.
Can anyone make a sane case for this?
Intel Medfield is supposed to close the power gap on ARM and will be out before product from this port will.
Arm and x86 netbook both with windows, both competing with each other, and not binary compatible with each other.
Seriously I think the original info source is faulty and this is really Win CE 7 (already ARM) for tablets.
How well would a cloud-based Microsoft Office service work on devices that have only intermittent connections to the Internet, such as smartbooks, Wi-Fi tablets, and 3G tablets in areas with poor signal coverage? Does it use HTML5 CACHE MANIFEST+localStorage or some other tech to work offline?
I'm sure it will run OpenOffice.org/LibreOffice (as long as they don't use the iPhone model).
The current version of Windows on ARM (Windows Phone 7) goes past the iPhone model, requiring all programs to be written in verifiably type-safe CIL. Standard C++ will compile to CIL, but it won't be verifiably type-safe and therefore won't run on Xbox 360 or Windows Phone 7. Instead, even the platform-independent model portion of a program has to be rewritten to use the different syntax and semantics for pointers and arrays in the verifiably type-safe subset of C++/CLI.
Hmm, if only Microsoft had bought a company that made an x86 emulator. Oh, wait, they did.
Are you referring to Virtual PC?
Yes. Before Apple started making Macintosh computers with Intel CPUs, Microsoft sold a product called "Virtual PC for Mac" that was an emulator that ran Windows and Windows applications on a PowerPC CPU.
And yet when you read tech blog comments on Chrome OS, the turfing is all about drivers and whether your digital camera is going to work.
Put identity in the browser.
What would be the point of porting the desktop Windows to ARM when MS is already in that market segment with Windows CE?
What would be the point of making a home version of Windows NT when Microsoft was already in that market space with Windows 98? Just as the home PC market was switched from the 9x codebase to Windows XP (i.e. NT 5.1), the mobile market could be likewise switched to NT, finally unifying all three markets (home, professional, and mobile) under one codebase. Microsoft might even be able to pull it off if it includes a subsystem for running CE apps, much like wowexec on 32-bit NT or wow64 on 64-bit NT.
I thought Windows7 phones already are mostly arm based.
Is Microsoft thinking of using something other than WindowsCE?
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But Windows' main (and practically lone) selling point is that it works with all your old software.
Windows for ARM could run Windows Mobile applications. Please see my other comment.
I don't think there will be much margin on SW for $200 devices
How much margin is there on software for Nintendo DSi, PSP, and iPod touch, which fall close to that price range?
Existing windows apps would need to be at the very least recompiled (or may require significantly more work depending on the code)
Not necessarily. See my other comment about handling a transition from Windows CE to Windows for ARM much like the transition from Windows 9x.
The original Xbox console had a Celeron CPU. Xbox 360 has a 3-core, 6-thread PowerPC CPU. The x86-on-PowerPC dynamic recompiler from Virtual PC for Mac ended up in the ability to play select Xbox game discs in emulation on the Xbox 360.
Originally, Microsoft claimed Windows was portable to just about every significant processor available. Then they shifted direction and, lo and behold, everything but Intel dropped out, one by one. The company I worked for was seriously hurt when Microsoft dropped support for DEC's Alpha, just months after we had made a big marketing push and sold what for us was a large number of Alpha-based systems. Support for Windows on the PowerPC architecture went the same way.
And, of course, remember the ACE initiative, Windows running on a MIPS-based reference architecture? Microsoft sandbagged that, too.
Multiplatform support means very little if you are completely dependent on a vendor's whims (or strategic marketing objectives) as to what platforms are supported.
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I see a gap in microsoft's product line. Its small branch offices where a traditional server is overkill in power usage and expense.
If microsoft were to produce an ARM version of server2008r2 that was able to provide a full AD DC role, print server role, WSUS or IIS as a single role server on a lighter ARM box they would kill.
If you could get a single role, or single primary role such as a AD DC + print server, or IIS + WSUS, at a more fitting price for a low power machine, then AD would find many more homes in small offices.
Considering that ANY full size server is going to chew up 250W, and 350W more often than not, a 100W ARM server, redundant hard disks included, would be a significant savings in expense. 250W*24hours*365 = thats ~2.2MW or around $250, the ARM server would be $150 per year cheaper. Now do 2 AD DC, 1 IIS + WSUS, and 1 fileserver your at 1.25KW*24*365 thats 11MW or $1200 vs $300-$400 for the arm. Microsoft should also license these out at a reduced price (1/2 I think) but keep CALS the same price.
There are many roles that just arent worthy of an entire machine and shouldnt be put in a VM. A backup server for DPM for instance. Doesnt need much horsepower, just diskspace, server 2008r2, and the DPM software. PERFECT for a small ARM platform like a dual core 1.5-2Ghz.
As much as I would love to see Linux make headway, the cost for windows preinstalled just isn't that much. The same people that would do 99% of their work in the browser would be the people that would lean towards the known company over the unknown.
So, the same demographic that would consider moving brands is the same demographic that would have the hardest time, while the demographic that would stick with brand name would be the group that could move brands if they cared to.
Touche!
I will refine the statement in the future to read "Desktop Windows"
The NT kernel is optimized to run SMP on cache coherent cores. ARM is not cache coherent and it is likely that making it cache coherent would ruin much of its power efficiency compared to x86. NT running on a single ARM core doesn't seem very interesting and supporting multithreaded applications on SMP ARM will require either strong thread affinity or adding some really ugly shared memory hacks to WIN32.
Thanks for the links. I've bookmarked this site.
What one fool can do, another can. (Ancient Simian Proverb)
A hypothetical ARM port of Windows would still get much more software, since most of it is really just a recompile away (Win32 API would remain the same, and so would the C/C++ compiler). You know - Office, Photoshop... the usual names that people mention when talking about what's missing on Linux.
Why?
Office might be ported if MS are trying to push the platform hard, but photoshop? I doubt it...
Photoshop was never ported to NT/Alpha or NT/IA64, and those platforms offered superior to x86 performance and memory capacities - very useful for running photoshop, ARM is a low power platform which is unlikely to be used to run photoshop...
Sure, theoretically most of it is a compile away... But unlike on linux, only a single entity can recompile each piece of software...
Also very little win32 software has ever been written for anything other than x86, who's to tell how many x86 dependencies might exist in the code which would make porting harder?
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While a single copy of preinstalled windows isn't that much, a hundred thousand copies is a lot... If your an OEM looking to ship thousands of units, removing a costly component could have a very positive impact on your margins.
As for end users, thats all down to marketing... Chances are if these people are leaning towards known companies, then they will be buying hardware from known brands too and so if the OEM promotes it well there could easily be linux sales... A decent linux distro (note: not the crippled distros that have shipped on previous netbooks) has a lot of advantages to a typical end user, they just don't know about them because there is little or no marketing.
On the other hand, if the people are buying unbranded equipment they are probably doing so because its cheaper, so buying unbranded software isn't much of a stretch for the same reason.
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Granted, Photoshop might have been a bad example. I dunno, what else is usually thrown out - Quicken?
Oh yes, and games. So long as the drivers are there, DirectX (11 or whatever it'll be by then) will be as well.
Sure, theoretically most of it is a compile away... But unlike on linux, only a single entity can recompile each piece of software...
Yes, of course. Which is why the real legacy software won't get there. But those programs which are still developed - so long as the porting is easy, and ARM netbooks and/or tables become widespread, well, why not?
Also very little win32 software has ever been written for anything other than x86, who's to tell how many x86 dependencies might exist in the code which would make porting harder?
There has been quite a struggle in moving software to x64, and most quirks have been ironed out then. Even for those apps which didn't move, Microsoft C/C++ compilers since 2003 have had a mode which detects typical portability issues even when compiling for 32-bit and emits them as warnings. So the usual set of problematic patterns - sizeof dependencies and such - is largely treated by now.
The point, anyway, is that it is definitely much easier than porting the same code to Linux or OS X...
Your theory seems to have failed up until this point. There is no reason to believe that it would change in the future.
But if you're not going to run anything which is tied to windows, then what's the point paying more for windows?
I think we're on that "nobody ever got fired for buying Windows" thing, or something similar.
What you can be reasonably sure of is that it will be supported for some time (MS isn't going to go bust for a while), at least some third party developers will be producing applications becuase it's easy to find developers who know Windows, and it could become a self fulfilling prophesy that Windows ARM becomes successful because everyone expects it to do so.
Actually, netbook manufacturers were "incentivised" by MS into shipping XP (and then Win7) for netbooks. They have tremendous leverage as these manufacturers need the OEM licensing that MS provides for a range of other products as well and does not want to damage that relationship.
Eventually Android tablets and the iPad will obliterate netbooks sales. We can already see a glut of netbooks this year, unsold for the Xmas season. Chrome OS will probably pick up most of the slack when it does come out if it offers a more seamless experience for the younger generation that uses computers permanently online.
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If I install windows, i rarely use anything thats older than 3 years old. (except old licence copies of office/vstudio)
So legacy is not a reason any more.
Anything beyond 3-4 years is either utter crap, or just irrelevent and has a superior competitor that 10x better and at least supports newer cpus and dual core.
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so long as the porting is easy, and ARM netbooks and/or tables become widespread, well, why not?
They wont become widespread until there are apps, and commercial vendors wont port apps until the hardware is widespread (ie there are actual customers to buy it)... Doesn't really matter how easy porting is...
There will almost certainly be a lot of open source apps fairly quickly, but then linux already has all these apps, so will this be enough to bring customers to the platform? Not unless hardware vendors seriously screw up their linux implementation/marketing - and thats more likely to kill the platform totally...
HP and Intel went out of their way to make porting apps to IA64 easy, and look what happened there...
Porting to windows on mips, ppc and alpha was easy too - the alpha even used a special compiler to simulate a 32bit cpu to make porting easier, and yet these platforms never took off... mips and ppc were very quickly killed (and microsoft even made their own mips hardware) while alpha hung on in niche markets for a while because it was so far ahead on performance in those days.
x64 is an entirely different kettle of fish, x64 systems can still run x86 applications just fine and most software still ships as 32bit x86 binaries anyway, only a very small niche of software is compiled for x64 so far.
Yes, the porting may be easier than osx or linux, but both osx and linux are currently a larger market than windows/arm and yet are often considered not large enough for commercial ports.
Also since you mention quicken and photoshop, both of those apps already exist for osx on both powerpc and x86, and photoshop even used to have unix ports (irix at least)... Porting to linux would not be terribly difficult.
You will also get fragmentation of brand...
On linux at least, the same applications are already available for arm and x86 (or mips, or whatever else), if a piece of software is for "linux" then chances are it can run on your hardware regardless... Also the repository/appstore model suits this very well.
Windows apps being closed source, pretty much depend on running on compatible hardware... Users will be annoyed when they buy "Games for windows" and find they don't work on this new windows/arm, they will be forced to check what architectures the apps they want to use are available for. Most apps these days are not written in hardware neutral frameworks like java or .net...
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NT has been ported to a lot of architectures other than Alpha. In fact, there's a currently supported (though being phased out) port to Itanium, which is nothing like x86 despite coming from the same company.
The problem is that it does cost money to maintain ports, and therefore Microsoft won't do it unless they make more than it costs. Itanium has not been a great success, and is falling behind rapidly now, which is why it's being abandoned. Alpha went through something very similar, in a much shorter time-frame, during its heyday: a shiny new architecture with awesome capabilities and a Windows NT port that ran great, but the chip itself was not a commercial success (my personal understanding is that DEC screwed up the pricing and marketing, targeting only very expensive systems rather than commoditizing the CPU). Without sufficient financial incentive to keep it around, MS dropped the ARM port.
So far, ARM seems to be going the opposite direction. It's been around for a long time, but is only starting to be taken seriously for general-purpose computers. It's low-cost and already very commoditized, and PC OS developers are starting to look at it with interest as it becomes powerful enough to be relevent in a general-purpose PC. Because there's a ready-made market niche for it (low-power and low-cost systems, possibly portable and/or touchscreen based), adoption will probably be pretty quick (unlike many other non-x86 architectures of the past).
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I don't think nintendo makes much on DSes (?), HW & OS portion at least.
Nintendo makes plenty on the operating system, or at least the part that verifies each game's digital signature.
if a third party made a different "DS OS" I couldn't see them being able to sell it for much.
Only because Nintendo has successfully sued companies selling the different "DS OS". See multiple prior articles.
A year's worth of data refutes that statement.
Isn't ARM already dominant? Think smart phones and tablets not laptops and desktops. The former will one day exceed the later with respect to personal ownership.
ARM may also get used in some netbooks. I suppose something from the NT side of the family, as opposed to the CE side, could make sense there. I'm not sure why a desktop or laptop might go that route (Atom + NT).
Nobody outside Microsoft knows how much of this was portable code and how much of it was each hardware architecture splitting into its own branch of code.
Wrong. MS had (has ?) a program granting access to Windows NT source code for university researchers. MS had to like the research topic and be granted the right to use anything that comes from this research (keep in mind universities like to patent things, MS would automatically get a license) and the professor and students had to sign NDAs and keep the source "locked up" so those outside the project would not have access. A friend was on such a project while in grad school, I believe they had Windows NT 4.
Regarding architecture specific branches, that is pretty much only done for portions of the hardware abstraction layer of NT, just as it is done for portions of Linux and BSD kernels.
The fact that non-Intel platforms all disappeared strongly indicates that it was mostly the latter in the end.
A terribly bad guess. Windows NT started on MIPS (i860 when it was OS/2 NT?), designing the code for portability was a priority since day 1. MIPS was used to further this goal. Alpha and PowerPC cpus were more commercially oriented ports. Their failure in the Windows market was not necessarily MS' fault. Apple never delivered the Mac OS component of CHRP that would let people have native Mac OS and native Windows NT running on the same machine. On the low end server side Linux thwarted MS expansion into that realm. The non-x86 retail products were dropped due to a lack of consumer interest. Note that x86 includes two hardware platforms, IA32 and AMD64.
I doubt that an ARM version of windows would ever wind up in a Desktop (or laptop). Could be that they are attempting to create a more tablet-friendly version of windows than what you get with Windows 7. You could get away with Office on something like that.
Personally though, I suspect that there's less of a story here than people think. They are probably just going to reveal a newer version of Windows CE. Big deal.
They wont become widespread until there are apps, and commercial vendors wont port apps until the hardware is widespread (ie there are actual customers to buy it)...
Yeah, the vicious circle. That's when you (i.e. MS) actively promote app developers to pick it up via various financial incentives and support. We're already seeing the same tactic in action for WinPhone, which suffers from the same problem (new platform -> few users -> few apps written -> few users).
HP and Intel went out of their way to make porting apps to IA64 easy, and look what happened there...
But IA64 was never successfully marketed as anything but a server platform; why would makers of consumer and "workstation" software even bother with it?
Porting to windows on mips, ppc and alpha was easy too - the alpha even used a special compiler to simulate a 32bit cpu to make porting easier, and yet these platforms never took off... mips and ppc were very quickly killed (and microsoft even made their own mips hardware) while alpha hung on in niche markets for a while because it was so far ahead on performance in those days.
The reason why ARM is clearly taking off, with or without Microsoft onboard, is the very recent explosion of consumer mobile device market - smartphones first, and now tablets. The latter especially - you can't have a really good Windows tablet (with decent battery life) unless it's ARM. That alone is a strong incentive for both MS to do it, and for app vendors to jump on the porting bandwagon lest they miss it.
Yes, the porting may be easier than osx or linux, but both osx and linux are currently a larger market than windows/arm and yet are often considered not large enough for commercial ports.
The issues with Linux on the desktop as a market are not just with market share - it's also about fragmentation and constant headaches with hardware support. That it hovers somewhere around 1% is just the final nail in that coffin.
OS X, meanwhile, is doing okay. I mean, we actually have MSOffice there, and a bunch of non-indie games.
But, see - "porting may be easier" is quite an understatement. To port a Win32 app to Linux or OS X, you have to pretty much completely rewrite the UI layer using the new widget toolkit for the target platform - and that's assuming you have clean separation of UI and the rest, which many old code bases do not! To port a Win32 x86 app to ARM, you have to recompile and check for any architecture assumptions - endianness will not be an issue, sizeof would be the same on 32-bit ARM, so that leaves only data alignment issues - and since those will crash your app if there is a problem, they're easy to take care of with automated functional testing (just run your full suite!).
If you're unlucky, you may also have some bits of assembler in your source code which may have to be ported (or just rewritten in C, if their performance isn't really critical on modern PCs in the same way it was 10 years ago when they were written). This would probably be the biggest issue anyone would run into, barring some very special software that is architecture-dependent by definition, such as JIT-compilers.
Also since you mention quicken and photoshop, both of those apps already exist for osx on both powerpc and x86, and photoshop even used to have unix ports (irix at least)... Porting to linux would not be terribly difficult.
It would still mean rewriting the UI in either Qt or Gtk. The existence of those apps on OS X indicates that their UI is reasonably cleanly separated from the logic, so it's easier than it could be, but it certainly isn't trivial.
On linux at least, the same applications are already available for arm and x86 (or mips, or whatever else), if a piece of software is for "linux" then chances are it can run on your hardware regardless... Also the repository/appstore model suit
While a single copy of preinstalled windows isn't that much, a hundred thousand copies is a lot... If your an OEM looking to ship thousands of units, removing a costly component could have a very positive impact on your margins.
Yep. Cost-cutting is alive and popular in the computer hardware industry. For example, I have an Acer Aspire One on the desk next to me. The original Aspire One was available in a version with an integrated 3G modem, which was fitted to a second mini-PCIe slot.
In order to save a dollar or so per netbook, Acer didn't bother populating the connector for the second slot on machines which didn't have the 3G modem to go in it. Cost-cutting was so important to them that it was worth producing and tracking two different types of motherboard just to save a tiny amount on component costs.
It does no such thing. Those stats are counting web usage. They thus show iOS a year ago with a percentage far higher than their real market share, because the Mobile Safari UI was the first mobile web browser worth using for accessing real (not mobile specific) web sites.
The rise of market share of Android over the last year is because it too offers a decent web browsing experience and represents many manufacturers, with cheap smartphones.
It's got nothing to do with lock in. The average smartphone purchaser hasn't a clue what lock in is, and even if they did, couldn't point out which phones would earn the description. ANd even if they could, they couldn't care.