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California Healthcare Provider Wants Illness-Predicting Algorithm
alphadogg writes "The Heritage Provider Network wants to do for healthcare what technology in the film Minority Report did for police work. In other words, it wants to use technology to pre-emptively predict when illness is likely to strike and take measures to prevent costly hospitalizations. This week Heritage announced that it was offering a prize of $3 million for any developer who successfully created a 'breakthrough algorithm that uses available patient data, including health records and claims data, to predict and prevent unnecessary hospitalizations.'"
something similar - http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/
All they have to do now, is get the source, fork it on github, and add a few conditions for... well, conditions.
Let's see some academic collaboration happening OSS style!
'breakthrough algorithm that uses available patient data, including health records and claims data, to predict and prevent unnecessary hospitalizations.'"
By removing them from the list?
"Sorry, you're statistically not interesting for us anymore..."
"New care plans and strategies" sounds like HMO-speak for "cut off people before they cost us more than we soak in from them".
It's called preventive medicine; the rest of the world has been doing it for some time now...
The whole idea of a healthcare insurance is to spread the risk between people... therefore it's pretty much necessary that healthy and unhealthy people pay the same.
If you have a cheap healthcare for all healthy people, and then an unaffordable one for those more likely to get ill, the system crashes, doesn't it?
An insurance is a protection against future problems. Healthy people also must invest in their own unavoidable loss of health.
As a healthcare professional who does data analysis for a number of hospitals, this sounds like a great idea, but at the same time I also realize the limitations of conducting this algorithm process. To begin with, HIPAA compliance laws make it very difficult to share specific data about patients, which means someone trying to put together this type of information, or statistical based program process, is going to have to do it sans data, creating false data that isn't actually real case information. Which then means that even if you are capable of providing an algorithm that fulfills the functionality, the designers of the prize program are most likely going to stand up and say that it's not transferrable to real cases because you didn't account for the specific variables that are present in real world data (meaning you can't predict data that is actually already there due to the amount of errors in guesswork involved). If they made available the actual data they want extracted, this might be a possible process. But until they do, it is like guessing statistical outcomes of a presidential race without knowing anything about the people who might be actually running.
Sarbonn's blog: http://www.sarbonn.com/blog
So there I was, walking down the street minding my own business... when a van screeches to halt in front of me. Five (5!) scantily clad nurses throw me to the ground and give me the kiss of life. Who knew I was about to be run over?
IF $PERSON watched Jackass 3D AND says "Hey guys, watch this!"
THEN Do not insure
Set your phasers on "funky"!
The commonest disabilities in the western world are heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and multiple arthritis from being too heavy for your poor bones to handle.
I'm a GP doctor; as folk walk in the door, it is usually obvious who is going to be at risk for future problems. They are fat, overflowing my poor abused seats, they groan as they stand up, they are obviously unfit. As a added bonus, I can often smell the cigarettes on their breath.
Does knowing who is at risk help? Sadly, all too often it doesnt.
Lazy fat slobs will on average die considerably younger of way too many diseases, and I have not even mentioned chronic crappy disabilities like back pain, hip pain, knee pain. I pride myself that I turn a few of these folks to the bright side of eating a bit better, exercising a tad more, and thus living longer and actually enjoying those healthy extra years.
You don't need an algorithm to work out who is at risk of future disease, it is bloody obvious (can I have my $3M now?). The problem is getting these fat, unfit folk to realise there is more to exercise than driving to buy their next greasy pizza.
Oh! they deliver now as well...
The real problem is cost of health care, about 6 months ago I fell and broke my back. I have decent if not great insurance, and the treatment for my break (single level split compression fracture if your interested) has been nothing more than a brace and monthly follow up x-rays (and one CT at 4 months)and doctor visits. I was transported to the hospital by ambulance on a back board (cost about $750, $300 out of pocket, kept in the hospital for 3 days base level observation, fall happened on a weekend and I could not be fitted for a $750 custom fitted plastic and foam brace until Monday, hospital bill about $15,000 for 35 hour stay, another $2,000 or so for the 2-3 hours in the ER before being admitted), plus about $515 per month for a couple of x-rays and spinal specialist visits. Total bill upwards of $25,000 so far, out of pocket around $4,000 .
You seem to be arguing from the following premise:
"costly treatments make people take more care of their health"
Until you bring forth Extraoridnary Evidence (tm) for this Extraordinary Claim (tm), please forgive us for ignoring your random speculations, and for frowning upon your attempt at presenting those ramblings as fact.
You might be surprised to learn that there are many other countries besides the US, employing many different models of health care funding. A first stab at checking your assumtions (don't knock it 'till you've tried it) would be to compare some industrialised countries in terms of public health, healtcare spending, and typical cost to patients.
Seriously - would you or anyone you know actually think "I never really considered getting a serious helath problem, but it the treatment is free, why the hell not?", or is it just "those other people" you collectively accuse of this insanity?
sudo ergo sum
For comparison in the UK:
CT scan just cost my insurance £450 ($721.22) and the nurse told me that was cheap.
Wife just had gaul bladder removed. In and out of hospital within 24hrs. £4,750 ($7,612.83)
NB. Some of us in the UK get private health care through work.
This post contains benzene, nitrosamines, formaldehyde and hydrogen cyanide.
especially with the nationwide health care bill what did you expect ...
The system will allow people to forgo insurance until they are sick.
Which was kind of the point of the individual mandate in the new health care bill, no?
Why should someone pay for your healthcare if your not an active participant in improving your own health
Because depression is also a medical condition, one which prevents you from adequately "participating" and which is widespread. Also because it puts people in the position of judging who is and who is not "participating," which amounts to, in the mildest case, a huge waste of time determining who is "lazy" and who has an excuse (like "i can't exercise, I'm paralyzed") and, in the more drastic case, a "death panel."
Someone had to do it.
Ask yourself this : Why should someone pay for your healthcare if your not an active participant in improving your own health. Then realize that a sizable portion will tell you to go F off all the while not screwing over themselves by not doing anything or worse doing the wrong things.
So you don't have car insurance then? Afterall, why would you pay for someone else's car accident?
You clearly don't understand the concept of insurance. Let me help you with that. Following your logic: Do you actively go out on driver improvement courses?
Insurance *is* risk. Mitigation. Current "health insurance" is more subsidizing the costs for everyone.