Slashdot Mirror
No IPv6 Doomsday In 2012
itwbennett writes "Yes, IPv4 addresses are running out, but a Y2K-style disaster/frenzy won't be coming in 2012. Instead, businesses are likely to spend the coming year preparing to upgrade to IPv6, experts say. Of course there's a chance that panic will ensue when Europe's RIPE hands out its last IPv4 addresses this summer, but 'most [businesses] understand that they can live without having to make any major investments immediately,' said IDC analyst Nav Chander. Plus, it won't be until 2013 that North America will run out of IPv4 addresses and there's no sense getting worked up before then."
ISP's and hosting companies will not run out of IPs. This only means that the price per IP will start to slowly grow. Hell, every time I order server the companies still happily hand me over 5 IPs without me even asking for them. With a simple request I can also buy 256 ips for the price of $300 a year.
Well, anyone looking to make some big bucks in the next 1-3 year should start learning IPv6. Nothing major needed, just setup a IPv6 network at home, if you can rent an external server with IPv6 in any of the many data centers that already offer it, and play with it.
It's not a lot of effort and there will be many highly paid job offers soon.
There are so much junk IP addresses out there going nowhere, probably enough to keep us going for the next 10 years. If your site has been down for more than a year, time to forfeit that IP.
-- By all means let's be open-minded, but not so open-minded that our brains drop out.
Only the regional NICs have run out of blocks to distribute. No one has actually run out of IPv4 addresses. Moreover, there is a lot that still can be done to reclaim addresses. Lastly, the huge swathes of multicast and class E addresses haven't even been tapped.
This is just more attempts for the shill media to try to herd people into replacing their gear. It'll fail like the rest.
The USG was scheduled to go to IPv6 in 2006. It hasn't even begun yet.
HBI's Law: Frequency of calling others Nazis is directly correlated with the likelihood of the accuser being Communist.
I'll be getting my network IPv6-ready now, thanks. I'll need to get a tunnel running to get connectivity, but I'll have a solid 6 months to a year to get all the bugs ironed out before I need to depend on it. That way I won't have to panic and rush if problems come up, and I won't be doing a mad scramble to get everything done as a hard deadline looms.
It's always easier and less disruptive to do something if, when something goes wrong, it can stay broken for a couple of weeks while I sort things out and it's no big deal.
Why they're even bothering to do all of this, I mean didn't science prove world's gonna end by the end of 2012.
Admit nothing. Deny Everything. Make Counter-accusations.
Those guys must be stupid:
"IPv6 might allow those applications to operate in a more seamless way because of peer-to-peer capabilities built into the protocol"
What is he talking about? It appears that he never actually spent time trying to understand the protocol and that he got the quote from some marketing brochure that he downloaded.
"2012 is a great time to learn and to plan,"
YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING ME!
"Figure out how to incorporate IPv6 into your upgrade cycles and your process update cycles"
If you didn't figure that out 3-5 years ago, then you have a lot of upgrading to do next year.
"The lack of IPv4 addresses probably won't force many enterprises or carriers into IPv6 in the next few years"
Not sure what carriers he talked to. Most of them already have IPv6 projects and real customers.
"NAT (network address translation) can bridge the gap to make IPv4 resources available to IPv6-only systems and vice versa"
Let me know what device I can install to translate from v4 to v6. I would be very interested in understanding how such device would work so I don't have to migrate my users. NAT46 is a myth...
Plus, it won't be until 2013 that North America will run out of IPv4 addresses and there's no sense getting worked up before then.
Christ. Arrogant much? last time I looked the Internet existed beyond the terrorist state known as the USA.
Together, We Can Make Slashdot Better. I Do NOT Mod ACs. - Check Me Out
For cheap consumer devices that do everything in software, sure a firmware update is all it would take, at least in theory (IPv6 can take more memory and CPU so on limited devices there might not be enough). However enterprise networking devices? They usually have to have parts replaced.
Reason is that to get the kind of speeds and latencies we want, you need ASICs, Application Specific Integrated Circuits. Those are just what they sound like: Devices designed to do a specific thing. That also means they aren't programmable. ASICs allow us to do stuff cheaper and faster than we could do in software.
A simple example is a gigabit switch. Crack one open and you see a very small little chip that handles all the switching. Now try it with a PC, stick in 8 gigabit cards and have it bridge between them. It'll overwhelm it, despite having a powerful CPU. Reason the switch can handle it is that little chip does nothing but switch packets. It is designed for only one task and does it well.
So enterprise stuff has this too, but some more complex ones. You get ASICs to speed up routing. Problem is if the ASIC was made for IPv4, it cannot be expanded to IPv6. You need a new one.
On the campus where I work they upgraded all the big routers to do IPv6 and it was pricey, seven figures even with our discounts. All the supervisor modules had to be replaced. Now yes, before that they could have technically turned it on, there was IPv6 for IOS on the older stuff. However it was all done in CPU, which is pretty limited on those routers. So if a couple people used it, it'd be fine. However if lots of people did, it'd crash the routers. The only way to give them the capacity to support it for everyone was to get new IPv6 hardware.
It isn't a matter of being greedy. As I said, Cisco would let you turn IPv6 on for many devices, like the 6500/7600s we use. It just couldn't accelerate it because it lacked the hardware. No magic fix for that.
Remember high end networking equipment isn't replaced often. You can leave it in place for over a decade. They aren't going to replace it all just for fun.
Yes, running out of ipv4 address space is alot of hot air, probably for another 3-5 years. In reality they could even extend that quite a bit. assuming you dont take into account china and india all getting internet-connected phones... thats a somewhat scary scenario.
But, what I dont get is why geeks arent excited about the move to ipv6... I *LOVE* ipv6, i wish my isp would get it faster.
From a purely geektechnonerd perspective, i find ipv6 interesting and hence want to use it (do use it in fact).. i think it has its flaws though, and what scares me is the lack of a "real" private address range (with nat) like we do now with ipv4. While I can understand people in the linux kernel going "nat was crap, we're not doing it in ipv6", i find that view very short sighted. Yes, ipv4 nat is a "hack" (or was originally created to facilitate a hack), but its come to be a useful one and can get you around some nasty things an isp can do to you simply by limited the number of addresses you can have (not to mention many other things it can give you)...
But, the techo in me who loves setting up networks cant wait till the next job im doing that uses ipv6, and thats coming more frequently now.
Quite honestly, if the press wants to make a big deal out of it and blow it out of proportion, im not going to stop them or even criticize them. I love doing ipv6 and if a client is thinking "maybe i should do ipv6 with my next network overhaul" I dont really care what the reasons for it are, be it a sensationalist media hype reflex or an interest in the protocol itself...
But then i get excited over most new bits of tech - be it physical or not. As in, i get about the same levels of excitement when google announce a new android phone (i.e. the nexus) as I do when a client starts asking me about how they adopt their network for ipv6.
Ok, ipv6 aint exactly new by any means, but people implementing it is another matter. The best part is until you see real (i.e. complex) networking scenarios using ipv6 you dont even some of the challanges that lay in store for you when implementing the protocol... but thats an article, not a slashdot post.
We're not changing to IPv6 on our internal network ever. Why would we bother with a forklift changeover of the entire internal network? It's a waste of time--nothing we need to do now requires "end to end" addressing, and frankly, if it does we don't want it. All the articles I've read seem to come down to "it's more convenient" for applications not to have to deal with NAT... Of course it is also more convenient for people who mean to do you harm, too, since we're back to connections to outside resources coming from the machine's actual IP address, a public NATing of the private one.
Once again, we're back to "convenience" vs. "can a competent admin secure it in a reasonable length of time or with a reasonable budget?"
Who did what now?
... what you don't seem to get is that the problem is not when ARIN runs out, but when your business partners get IPv6 addresses you can't reach because you didn't do your f@ckin' homework and upgrade to dual-stacked ... So go ahead, stick to IPv4, and once your boss comes in and asks why you can't exchange data with your possibly largest customer, tell him: "why would we want IPv4? Arin hasn't run out yet" ... good luck on finding a new job afterwards ... ...
And if you believe "Hey, no problem, it's just the Chinese and Japanese and Australians, who needs them" - think again, Europe's RIPE will run out of IPv4 addresses next
Also, strangely, the need for additional IP addresses is also on the decline, as the ability to manage NAT traversal improves. Using technologies such as wildcard SSL certs with subdomains rather than individual certs for each IP address, SSL/TLS for HTTP, STUN for VOIP traffic, and so on gradually ease pressure on the need for public IP addresses.
I'm not saying that IPV6 is DOA, but the cost of IP addresses will grow slowly enough that the transition will take a very, very long time. Our colo hasn't yet announced IPV6 capability, though they are expected to sometime this year. As soon as they support it, we'll roll out support for all our products shortly thereafter even though initial demand is almost nonexistent.
I have no problem with your religion until you decide it's reason to deprive others of the truth.
Correct. If you received IPv4 address space directly from one of the Internet number registries (whether that was IANA, or the InterNIC, or a regional Internet registry), the address space is assigned to you and can be transferred to another party according to the policies of the registry serving your region. If you received address space from your ISP, it's quite likely that the ISP is only providing it to you as a component of service and will recover them if you leave or change providers.
to get worked up about problems that are imminently arising. Because that worked so well for us in this SOPA/PIPA situation.
Only parties with operational need can obtain address space, whether that's directly from the Internet number registries or via transfer from an existing address holder.
they have 65 + million ipv4 addresses....
Registrations are publicly visible in the WHOIS database, so please elaborate which address blocks you refer to?
Stupid too. So you got your splendid IPv4 address but need to talk to your European IPv6 friend? Guess what, you are out of luck!
When do people learn that as anyone is out we are effectively all out?
Oh it might yet only be a few Chinese dudes that we do not like that much anyway. But soon enough it will be Europe. I know Americans like to think that USA is the whole world, but in fact there is a reason they call USA+Europe+others "the western world".
There will probably always be v4 addresses for servers to go around. The first to go will be end users.
So what if some European pal is on an v6 only network? Surely his ISP has enabled some sort of NAT that allows him to access your old v4 site? Yes of course they have. But let me say from experience: Said ISP also undersized that NAT device, so it will be overloaded, slow and unstable. We have yet to see how easy DOS attacks on carrier NAT really is.
If you do _any_ business outside USA, and if you are an enterprise of any size of consequence you do, the message is very clear: Very soon a big chunk of your business will have a bad experience if you are not IPv6 ready.
As for end users, we also need to get on the bandwagon. The only way to do peer to peer communication with the increasing number of v6-only people is by having an v6 address yourself. Soon you will only get the full utility out of programs like Bittorrent if you got dual stack. It does not matter were in the world you live, some of your peers are going to be in those regions that are out of v4 addresses.
I don't know what your source of information is, but i recall a previous announcement that no more IPv4 address were being provided, and that only IPv6 were being given out.
If that is true, then we are already out of the IPv4 addresses. and the big IPv6 potential doomsday has already come and gone.
It's worth reading the original article referenced in the post... The central free pool of IPv4 address space ran out on 3 February 2011. The Asia Pacific region (under the APNIC registry) ran out of address space for issuance per their standard policies at the start of summer. RIPE (serving Europe) is likely to run out in this spring, and ARIN is likely to run out in early 2013. Telecommunication companies and ISPs rely on getting additional address space from their regional registry, and if they can't get any more IPv4 space, they either need to stop adding new customers, scavenge IPv4 space from elsewhere, or use IPv6 for new customers.
There is a finite number of IPv4 address (2**32, aka approx 4.3 billion)... There are 7 billion people on the planet today, and most want an always on smartphone, and a home computer, and a computer at work, etc. This doesn't consider the demand for office servers, data centers, cloud services, etc. The reality is that the depletion of the free pool doesn't mean we run out, but it does start us on the path of higher and higher utilization of these 4.3B numbers. At some point, it becomes very difficult to get additional addresses because all of the relatively easily recovered address space has been redeployed. For an ISP, this won't be 2012, but there's no assurance that its not going to happen very quickly in the next few years.
In this stage, APNIC has a fixed block of address space reserved and available under a special policy for new and emerging service providers, but that doesn't help one much if you're a existing telecomm company who had been getting tens of thousands of addresses every few months in order to grow - you can now longer obtain additional blocks and now must scramble to come up with an alternative (such as IPv6) if you want to keep growing. More info - http://www.apnic.net/community/ipv4-exhaustion/exhaustion-and-network-operators
how the hell am I suppose to remember my VPS IP than?
Maybe this?
"it won't be until 2013 that North America will run out of IPv4 addresses and there's no sense getting worked up before then."
I think whoever wrote this is a little self-centered. The rest of the world matters too.
The "end" of ipv4 has been harped constantly for nearly 10 years. I remember in one of my classes, the big thing about learning ipv6 was because we were going to be completely out of ipv4 addresses in 2 years, no ifs, ands or buts. 10 years later, the same cries are heard far and wide across the internet. Sorry, but you can only cry wolf so many times before it's obvious that you're just plain full of shit.
Amusingly, what most don't realize is that ipv4 was designed from the ground up to be vastly subnetworked. The theoretical number of ipv4 addresses from the base network is a whopping total of 4294967296. We'll round that down and say it's 4 billion. From one subnet, while the mode of access is from one source ip address (given decent network hardware, this is not a problem), that's an additional ~4 billion addresses from ONE SUBNET. I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I'll be surprised if we ever "run out" of ipv4 addresses.
Keep clanging your pots and pans, and shooting off fireworks. Nobody with an ounce of common sense believes that ipv4 addresses are an endangered species. Give it seven minutes and The Dragon From The Sky That Ate Teh Intarwebz will pass. Nothing of value will be lost; nothing of importance will be noted. Move along now, there really is nothing to see.
IPv6 cannot be introduced because it is incompatible
The OP remarks about everybody having all the time in the world until the US runs out is genuinely inane. Even within the US, the bulk of IP addresses belongs to large corporations. Major ISPs like Comcast & Hurricane Electric have already made the switch to IPv6.
Problem is that if some servers have only IPv6 addresses - very likely as IPv4 addresses become scarcer, as they already are in APNIC, then IPv4 only computers can't access them. Things like dual stack only work when the services being provided are dual stack as well: if a web server is offered on both IPv4 & IPv6, then a laptop somewhere can access it regardless of whether it's IPv4 or IPv6. But if a server is IPv6 only, then there is no way an IPv4 only laptop can access it. Reason being that most companies that implement transition technologies would use something like Dual Stack, Dual Stack Lite or Teredo, but not translation techniques such as NAT46 or NAT64.
The OP story is just one more of those stupid 'don't worry about putting out the fire until it spreads to every part of the building, and everybody can see it, so that at that point, the money spent on it will be more easily justified to management.
People involved with IT who do not also have a development background like to drone on and on about "where are the updates", without realizing how much incredibly different IPv6 support means than IPv4. Aside from the protocol itself, you have to remember here that each and every address takes up FOUR TIMES as much memory.
When you are dealing with devices that are routing hundreds of thousands of packets per second, this is not a small change. Think of how many maps and tables and caches now have four times the memory footprint - now think about how thin the margins are on hardware costs. A lot of these devices can not get a simple firmware upgrade to support IPv6 because the hardware they are running on simply would not be able to handle it.
Even if you are talking about simple things like a document system , the IP stack is quite possibly implemented in hardware, not software, using 32 bit registers in key locations. You can't just swap 32 bits to 128 bits and expect everything to fit when you are talking about low-level devices like this.
That would make more sense if IPv6 was easy. It isn't. It's a lot more complicated than IPv4 from a network engineering perspective and I don't see many people doing much to prepare for it in a mindshare sense.
what ? IPv6 is almost the same as IPv4 in network design.
the only significant difference is that with it you can build network by their actual supposed design without a lot of crutches and work-around to conserve address space and to adapt to the scale it was not designed for.
IPv6 is design for present and future.
IPv4 was designed for estranging past and have accreted with ugly hacks. it is inadequate for modern networking and so is the mindset of people who can't comprehend IPv6 and problems it solves.
who dares wins
These big switches support IPv6, and they do it in hardware, ASICs, if they are new. Cisco has Supervisors that fully support accelerated IPv6 Layer-3 switching. However you have to buy new sups to do it. They can't magically, retroactively, make the old ones support it. Their hardware wasn't designed for it. There is no magic firmware update to fix that.
Now speaking of firmware updates, or rather OS updates in this case, you can get IOS that has IPv6 support for those older switches. They don't prevent it. However lacking the hardware, it has to do it all on the CPU. That means that it is really good only for testing. You can't roll it out to everyone, you'll overload the CPU and it'll crash.
Seriously, you people need to stop thinking everything is like the little router you've got in your house. Go have a look at some of this high end network equipment, see the massive amount of special hardware it takes to make it able to do what it needs to do. Then maybe understand that it isn't as simple as a little software fix.