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'Of Course We Are In a Post-PC World,' Says Ray Ozzie
An anonymous reader writes "Speaking at a tech conference in Seattle this week, former Microsoft Chief Software Architect Ray Ozzie had some interesting things to say about the state of the computing industry. 'People argue about "are we in a post-PC world?" Why are we arguing? Of course we are in a post-PC world. That doesn't mean the PC dies, that just means that the scenarios that we use them in, we stop referring to them as PCs, we refer to them as other things.' Ozzie also thinks Microsoft's future as a company is strongly tied to Windows 8's reception. 'If Windows 8 shifts in a form that people really want to buy the product, the company will have a great future. ... It's a world of phones and pads and devices of all kinds, and our interests in general purpose computing — or desktop computing — starts to wane and people start doing the same things and more in other scenarios.'"
of greasy fingerprints.
"Ozzie also thinks Microsoft's future as a company is strongly tied to Windows 8's reception."
They're doomed.
"If Windows 8 shifts in a form that people really want to buy the product, the company will have a great future."
From what I've seen, people will not be flocking to Windows 8 of their own free will. But the "good" news is that their will has little to do with it. New computes will come with Windows 8, and no doubt there will be some software feature tie ins that will require it. Much like Vista and DirectX.
"Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
You can have my PC when you pry it out of my cold dead arms.
I didn't see the Ray and thought this was some new Peter F Hamilton stuff.
"If Windows 8 shifts in a form that people really want to buy the product, the company will have a great future"
This man is a visionary!!! Ridiculous.....
Honestly I'm fine with the idea that someday my phone will be my main computer, and that I'll "dock" it to a keyboard and monitor at home. (As long as everything is constantly backed up to some cloud storage somewhere so when eventually I drop my phone or a jackass friend pushes me in a lake, I don't lose the past few days of work!)
But one thing I do wonder about is what this will do to the price of "real" workstation class equipment. Already, 4:3 monitors (which are much better for engineering work, spreadsheets, etc. -- think MATLAB, COMSOL Multiphysics, AutoCAD, SolidWorks, CST Microwave Studio...) are far more expensive than to 16:9 panels (which have the economies of scale from being the aspect ratio of broadcast TV). Even Dell's fantastic U2410 and U3011 LCD panels are 16:10, not 4:3.
So yeah. I'm fine with the day that most people's only computers will be a phone and a tablet, with a docking station for a mouse/keyboard/monitor. But for those of us that need more horsepower than a mobile processor can provide, it's not going to be good. Hopefully there'll still be enough gamers to subsidize the high-power graphics card and desktop processors so that technical people can afford them!
I'm surprised Microsoft and Monsanto don't have sex together
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Written by Alphonse:
Microsoft Kinect Spy System
"So you just got the Kinect/Xbox360 gaming system and youâ(TM)re having fun, hanging out in your underwear, plopped down in your favorite lounge chair, and playing games with your buddies. Yeah, itâ(TM)s great to have a microphone and camera in your game system so you can âoeKinectâ to your pals while you play, but did you read that Terms of Service Agreement that came with your Kinect thingy? No? Here, let me point out an important part of that service agreement.
If you accept the agreement, you âoeexpressly authorize and consent to us accessing or disclosing information about you, including the content of your communications, in order to: (a) comply with the law or respond to lawful requests or legal process; (b) protect the rights or property of Microsoft, our partners, or our customers, including the enforcement of our agreements or policies governing your use of the Service; or (c) act on a good faith belief that such access or disclosure is necessary to protect the personal safety of Microsoft employees, customers, or the public.â
Did you catch that? Here, let me print the important part in really big letters.
âoeIf you accept the agreement, you expressly authorize and consent to us accessing or disclosing information about you, including the content of your communications⦠on a good faith belief that such access or disclosure is necessary to protect the personal safety of Microsoft employees, customers, or the public.â
OK, is that clear enough for ya? When you use the Kinect system, you agree to allow Microsoft (and any branch of law enforcement or government they care to share information with) to use your Kinect system to spy on you. Maybe run that facial recognition software to check you out, listen to your conversations, and keep track of who you are communicating with.
I know this is probably old news to some, but I thought I would mention it because it pertains to almost all of these home game systems that are interactive. You have to remember, the camera and microphone contained in your game system has the ability to be hacked by anyone the game company gives that ability to, and that includes government snoops and law enforcement agents.
Hey, itâ(TM)s MICROSOFT. What did you expect?
And the same concerns apply to all interactive game systems. Just something to think about if youâ(TM)re having a âoeNaked Wii partyâ or doing something illegal while youâ(TM)re gaming with your buddies. Or maybe you say something suspicious and it triggers the DHS software to start tracking your every word. Hey, this is not paranoia. Itâ(TM)s spelled out for you, right there in that Service Agreement. Read it! Hereâ(TM)s one more part of the agreement you should be aware of.
âoeYou should not expect any level of privacy concerning your use of the live communication features (for example, voice chat, video and communications in live-hosted gameplay sessions) offered through the Service.â
Did you catch it that time? YOU SHOULD NOT EXPECT ANY LEVEL OF PRIVACY concerning your voice chat and video features on your Kinect box."
In a world where there are no content creators, only consumers, sure. And maybe they hope for such a world. I've yet to write a book on my phone, though.
What then happens to Microsoft?
Dammit, accidentally posted this as AC just now. Reposting as myself.
Honestly I'm fine with the idea that someday my phone will be my main computer, and that I'll "dock" it to a keyboard and monitor at home. (As long as everything is constantly backed up to some cloud storage somewhere so when eventually I drop my phone or a jackass friend pushes me in a lake, I don't lose the past few days of work!)
But one thing I do wonder about is what this will do to the price of "real" workstation class equipment. Already, 4:3 monitors (which are much better for engineering work, spreadsheets, etc. -- think MATLAB, COMSOL Multiphysics, AutoCAD, SolidWorks, CST Microwave Studio...) are far more expensive than to 16:9 panels (which have the economies of scale from being the aspect ratio of broadcast TV). Even Dell's fantastic U2410 and U3011 LCD panels are 16:10, not 4:3.
So yeah. I'm fine with the day that most people's only computers will be a phone and a tablet, with a docking station for a mouse/keyboard/monitor. But for those of us that need more horsepower than a mobile processor can provide, it's not going to be good. Hopefully there'll still be enough gamers to subsidize the high-power graphics card and desktop processors so that technical people can afford them!
Karma: pi (Mostly due to circular reasoning in posts).
I will never type on a screen keyboard, I can tell you that.
... our interests in general purpose computing — or desktop computing — starts to wane and people start doing the same things and more in other scenarios.
Isn't that just... not brilliant?
Ray Ozzie has always been good at restating the obvious, and in people paying more attention to his statements than they warrant because of who he is (or was).
Microsoft is still the power player when it comes to PCs, but it has yet to figure out how to become more than an afterthought when it comes to the devices people are using more and more instead of PCs.
On a side note - I'd venture to suggest that the Slashdot crowd as a group hasn't really come to terms with this sea change that's occurring in the world at large. My tech friends - and myself as well - still use a computer more than any post-PC device, while my non-tech friends are mostly on their phones or iPads during their off-work hours.
#DeleteChrome
I'm sure there's a way for you to just not use the sides of a 16:9 panel.
If a 16:9 panel costs less than the 4:3 that would fit inside it, what does it matter?
"PC" hardware isn't going anywhere. While many tasks will shift to smart phones and tablets the need for a full size keyboard isn't going away (at least not until computers can read your mind and do what you think for them to do). Desktop's are no longer mainstream for the masses, netbooks, notebooks, and laptops are, but workstations (desktops on steroids) will remain viable for cad applications. And then there are the servers and the gamers, power users that also require 'big iron'.
The ATX motherboard market may become a bit more consolidated with several motherboard companies going under, but I don't see the availability of them going away.
I've always been at the forefront of wearable computing. Mobile devices' games are very shoddy in comparison with PC games, and game platforms are a dead end - you lose the game next model up. Can you really ask your secretary to do touch typing on a tablet PC? I think these kids are in for a jolt when they try to force their strange fantasy on straightforward real users.
The purpose of existence is to make money.
It makes me fingers hurt to think about typing as much on a little glass screen as I do on a keyboard in a day. Sure, I could do it, but my tendons and eyes would hate me for it.
Sig: I stole this sig.
all these non-pc devices are for people who do not carry any real workload. No tablet or any other stupid ipod can handle a real workload. So lets put this subject into the Sheep-category which consists of newb looking @ facebook or other similar useless technologies.
"Ozzie also thinks Microsoft's future as a company is strongly tied to Windows 8's reception. 'If Windows 8 shifts in a form that people really want to buy the product, the company will have a great future" I really want to punch this guy. Nobody buys Windows out of choice; they buy it because, in most cases, it's the ONLY product people are aware of.
All I need is a box that can be accessed wirelessly and output to my TV.
Java arrived 15 years early.
As long as I can get at least 1200 pixels vertically, I'm good. I don't care if it's 1600 pixels wide or 1920. In fact, the added width is just fine. for putting taskbars, IM buddy lists, etc.
I would dearly love to have even more pixels though. A 24" or larger with the DPI of the ipad3 sounds pretty sweet.
I wonder if it ever really HAD to be a PC world in the first place. In the '80 and before that, the imaginarium was abundant with wristwatch computers, tricoerders, speaking and sentient machines, robots...
It became a "PC world" the moment wintel's suffocating embrace made everyone believe in the "end of history". It didn't happen, they're just realizing that... the bozos
Mi domando chi à il mandante di tutte le cazzate che faccio - Altan
What these business men are saying without saying it is that there's nothing "new" they can come up with for the PC. It's established technology. Sure, the graphics keep getting better, the windows look shinier, and the processors keep getting faster (while the OS's get slower), but there's nothing new they can invent for the PC. It does what it's supposed to do, and we just don't expect it to do anything more.
The PC market is saturated. No one who doesn't have one will feel motivated to buy one anymore, because everyone who wants one already has one. Sure, PC owners will upgrade. They'll fix. The market for PC won't shrink, but it won't grow either.
Businessmen want new. New sells. But new has to be different. New and different sells, because new and different means that, even if someone already has a PC, they'll still spend MORE money on what's new and different. New and different means that there's a new revenue stream that businessmen can tap into. New and different means more profit. That's what businessmen want.
So, to motivate consumers to spend money on the iPad, they must be manipulated into thinking that the PC is new and different. We must believe that the PC is not enough. We must seek more than the PC. We must buy iPad. What better way to do that than to think the PC is going the way of the dodo bird?
I've had a small epiphany.
I think the problem with Metro, is that I don't think that regular users think like Microsoft thinks they think.
nearly 30 years of GUI development and most everyone I know still uses full screen apps and a ridiculously cluttered desktop.
Don't get me wrong, I think on paper metro sounds amazing, especially with how apps interact with each other. Also on paper, iOS sounds completely fucking ridiculous, with just page after page of apps and no interaction.
However, what I find myself realizing is that metro isn't how people want to interact with computers. It doesn't offer any advantages over Windows Explorer. It's too high minded and over thought out.
It's going to bomb.
Badly.
Non impediti ratione cogitationus.
It means "personal computer", right? Must it have a keyboard and a monitor? How does "PC" preclude Mac OS, tablets, smartphones? Those are much more "personal" than my windows desktop IMO. I'd say the PC world is booming, but certainly shifting towards tablets and smartphones.
Don't worry. Traditional PCs are also growing in market share. What's remarkable is that it is considered a "mature" industry, and yet sales are still increasing. Most people agree with your sentiment, so don't pay attention to bloggers and the like: Those are a loud bunch who actually *can* do their work from a tablet. The rest of us just read those posts while working on our PCs, as usual.
I thought this guy may have been related to Ozzy Osbourne and that yes we are riding a in a "Post PC World" on A CRAZY TRAIN!!!
Put Linux on tablets exclusively. Its been pretty much insignificant in the PC world.
I started building S-100 bus computers, hand-soldering the boards in electronics shop, and using oscilliscopes to tune my floppy drives, literally adding transistors, capacitors, wires, clock units, batteries etc.
By that measure, a cell phone is a PC. So is your HDTV. So is your laptop. So is your tablet. So is your Desktop PC (which usually is under your desk, but used to be on top of it).
Nowadays the watch on your hand (does anyone except morons buy those anymore?) has more computing power than the old mainframes with magnetic core memory did.
The question is: should I be paying some Greedmeister a fortune (20 percent of the total unit cost) for an OS, like Microsoft, or should I just roll my own OS like China does where 95 percent of all Windows computers are pirated XP clones?
He's trying to cover up for that part. Just ignore him.
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"Ozzie also thinks Microsoft's future as a company is strongly tied to Windows 8's reception."
They're doomed.
You can say that again. Even InfoWorld knows the Metro UI in Win8 is a dead end.
It's Zune. On steroids.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
Did anyone else see this headline and go "What? What would Ozzie Osborne know about it?"
It is always entertaining to watch what happens when a company abandons its base in persuit of the next fad.
If you thought carpel tunnel was fun just wait a few years until the cumulative effects of pressing against rigid display screens all day with no means to dampen the force of impact.
I think Microsoft as a major player in the consumer market is probably going to fade. I still think they're going to be a major player in the medium-sized business and corporate world for some time to come. But as far as consumer devices go, they're so behind Apple and Android now that I just don't really see how they'll catch up.
More than 80 percent of Microsoft revenues are from corporations or parts of corporations or bonds of corporations they own.
They could stop making stuff tomorrow, and still bring in more revenue than the EU does.
-- Tigger warning: This post may contain tiggers! --
Try using a spreadsheet (or a code window) with a 16:10 monitor turned vertically - it's awesome.
Anyway, the real issue I have with phones and tablets is that despite what people claim, they are still *far* from general purpose computers. Eventually (though it may be a while) mobile processors will likely be plenty fast for 95% of potential users. But if we end up in a world where everyone has to develop and publish all of their software through an app store of some sort, please drown me in an apple barrel.
What's strange is how well a company (particularly a tech company) is doing is judged by the rate of growth.
Tablets are more of a complementary product with respect to the PC, not so much a competitor. You will most likely have both a PC (desktop or laptop) and a tablet. Now netbooks, they are in competition with tablets. For people with basic needs, including lightweight word processing and spreadsheet, the tablet will probably win most of the time. Adding a bluetooth keyboard makes the tablet pretty capable for such usage.
When the market share of both PCs and non-PC devices grows, what market share is then shrinking to make up for it? Remember, the sum of market shares is always fixed at 100%, no matter how much the market grows.
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
MS may be right about the changes.
But what is unfortunate is that they're taking away all the hammers to make everything a screwdriver, instead of adding wrenches to the tool kit.
Check your premises.
Because nobody really *creates* anything, anymore - we're all just consumers... Right? Send this guy "to the cloud" with the rest of the marketing dept's linguistic animal farm of disposed-of attempts at crafting us into their niches =/
Granted, most everything is just a reheated left-over of something else anymore (if not a blatant "remake"), but still..
"Of course I do not give a shit what Ray Ozzie says!" says Foobar of Borg. Seriously, though, why would anyone give so much weight to his opinions? I surely know at least as much about computers and computer networking as he does. I just don't have any kind of public venue to state my opinions (other than Slashdot, which is not really that public a venue). Of course, I'm sure I also know a lot more from an experiential point of view about fornicating than he does, but no one is going to be posting anything about that any time soon. Rule 34 is bullocks.
Similar to the upcoming US election results
Yes, sure. The company where i work, the company where i worked, the companies which are our biggest customers are firmly tied into the the pc world for at least one more generation of computing systems. Very likely that the trend to try to put everything on tablets will be over before they manage to switch.......
Just ask Rush Limbaugh.
Ray Ozzie says we're moving away from general purpose computing. ---> Microsoft (and others) don't want us to have the power to make our devices do what we want.
Rather than having one general purpose device that we can install any software we want on, including software we designed ourselves, that can be used as a mobile device or as a PC when connected with a big screen, manufacturers and software companies would like to move to a future where we're having specialised devices that do only one thing and where we can't even decide how they do it.
In essence this visage of the future would take us a step back to the pre-PC era. It's objectively better for the consumers and for global resource consumption to move forward instead; the trouble is that the manufacturers hold all the cards and don't seem to be keen on a future where they can sell only the hardware that's actually necessary rather than all the hardware they can.
I bought a new home last December. I got a pretty good deal, too, so there neener.
But the process wasn't as simple as it was back in 2005. I had to come up with income and asset verification, file forms online and offline for everything, answer questions at a moment's notice, exchange offers and counteroffers as we negotiated over details, accept an appraisal while I was driving home from work, etc.
My Android phone was all I had to work with. I could not create documents at work without having them signed from my employer. I couldn't send attachments via email. I couldn't go to several crucial websites. If not for the phone, I would not have been able to meet the deadlines.
For that period, my Android phone was a PC.
Now, if I bothered to work itout, a Bluetooth keyboard would make it 1000% better at that. And if I could jack it into a screen and an Ethernet jack, even better. That product is not very far in the future. The Transformer ain't it, quite, and the Motorola thing was too lame.
But it's coming. Then I have to ditch my little notebook. the all-in-one will do that fine.
deleting the extra space after periods so i can stay relevant, yeah.
The average person just isn't creating content like they were in previous eras.By 'content' obviously I mean typed text, the kind that comes from a physical keyboard.
Lengthy emails have been largely replaced by facebook wall posts, Term papers in some places replaced by powerpoints, and in general the 'multimedia' aspect of the internet has eclipsed the text part, which average users used to produce a lot more of.
I think it's a sad, unfortunate set of trends.
Bill Gates, please go back to Microsoft, at least you were relatively contained there compared to your current efforts to reduce the world's population without its consent.
that is so very funny my Bacon Mt. Dew almost shot out my nose. Everywhere i look i see desk top PC. yes more and more, non-techies are using "Smart Phones" but that doesnt make the user smart. and the more and more Apple dumbed down products there is the more these sudo-technophiles less and less savvy as those of us that grew up with keyboards laying around and more than one open PC in their home. (okay so yeah dad designed mircochips which gave me an upper hand) But the PC - like the other Slash Doters pointed out. means Personal Computer. If you had a dick tracy watch on your wrist, there you go that is a touch screen video conferance call maker designed with a software, so there you go a portable PC. I think Pads will dye out so very quick. havent any pointed out flexable LCD screens, your next Pad, might actully fold out from your pen, or use your skin as a touch pad. in three years mark my words. Apples Products will not be around or the same at all.
More than 80 percent of Microsoft revenues are from corporations or parts of corporations or bonds of corporations they own.
I somehow doubt it works as you're supposing. If those corporations are just different pieces of Microsoft (e.g. Microsoft UK), they're still tied to revenues from Microsoft products that are fading in relevance.
If they're not then you're just talking about the interest they're collecting on their cash reserve, which has almost nothing to do with their actual operations: If Windows begins a decline that would require an entirely not cost effective investment to recover from, Microsoft may do well to just exist the software business and keep issuing that 80% of revenues as a dividend indefinitely instead of burning their capital trying to preserve market share in a market that may quickly be evolving into a low-margin commodity market.
> 'If Windows 8 shifts in a form that people really want to buy the product, the company will have a great future. ... It's a world of phones and pads and devices of all kinds, and our interests in general purpose computing — or desktop computing — starts to wane and people start doing the same things and more in other scenarios.'
But... we're already doing that. Just not with Windows.
Oliver's law of assumed responsibility: If you're seen fixing it, you will be blamed for breaking it.
I was really getting tired of having to act politically correct all the time. And I've got a large collection of ethnic and gender-based jokes to tell.
Have gnu, will travel.
s/exist/exit/; :)
-- This space for lease, low setup fee, inquire within!
PC = Personal Computer
What "personal computer" means is changing, or at least it should be. The device that we have traditionally thought of in relation to the term is just one manifestation. Smartphones, tablets, and other form factors are also personal computers.
Whoopdy doo to you, jackass. (Typed on an on-screen keyboard)
Let's move the goalpost on what a "post PC world" is so we can be right, shall we? . Before the NON-demise of the PC finally became evident even to the "thin client" recently turned "cloud computing " evangelists, they talked about the "post PC world" as one where desktop computers were gone and computing power and cycles were going to be "like electricity" just *there*, anywhere, at the flip of a switch along with all your data.
Just like with the history of electrical generation, we will move from the days of big machines being present in every home to centrally localized and managed computing.
Now that that pipe dream(or "tube dream" ala the late Sen Ted Stevens) has become self-evidently false, they' re moving the goalposts in order to be seen as having been right.
Now to live in a post-PC world is to "have other than PCs become at all popular" (though still not as popular as PCs) .
One supposes they are doing this so they can make the claim to their speaking engagement / consulting clients that "they're the person who predicted our post-PC world in 1999..."
Whatever.
You know what? The post-PC world will happen when a better experience than a great keyboard, a great pointing device and three large flat screens is available to interact with.
Until then, people who have to create on computers rather than just consume screens of information will keep buying and loving their PCs in this "post PC world."
Now if you want to talk about a post WINDOWS or post M$ world, then pull up a chair and we can have a civilized conversation....
A lot of places are still moving to 7 and still have systems on XP with may say a few apps that don't work with 7.
Now I don't see them picking up 8 right away or moving real fast and by the time then may want to make a move windows 9 may be out soon fixing stuff that windows 8 did not get right like how 7 fixed stuff in vista.
for M$ anyway. That quote is gibberish.
e x p e c t d e l a y . c o m
Kill the PC. Reinvent the wheel all over again so they can charge for a new platforms development. Sorry suckers. Think I'll stick to something that I can make useful, not you.
So you can add more storage that is where laptops are better better. Also having vga / dvi / hdmi out makes it easy to hook a laptop to a projector for presentations or for times when you need a bigger screen or 2 screens. Storage is needed as the mobile data has high cost like $10 a gig and up to $20 a meg roaming. Also speed / coverage can very.
Full screen apps works on a smaller screen but not so much a bigger laptops screens and desktops. Also you still need a laptop / desktop to code / debug the tablet apps.
By looking at the Windows 8 Metro interface, it's clear that Microsoft thinks this is a post-PC world. Of course they're delusional.
With Microsoft effectively abandoning the corporate desktop (and Apple never taking it seriously in the first place) this is a perfect opportunity for a Linux distribution to gear up a release targetted at corporate PCs.
"Nine times out of ten, starting a fire is not the best way to solve the problem." - my wife
antitrust / lockin / different distributions issues. Are things that get in the way of this.
Now take the different Linux distributions packages dependencies and make it so you are locked in to that one and can't load any app out side of that and add in content filtering to that. Now that can hit some antitrust road blocks.
Also the cell phone companies like to have devices that are only on there network + the 2 year lock in. Also some lock the phones so you can't put in a other sim in to say get better rates when roaming.
Now let's say with pc where sold like cells phones so you go to buy a pc and you have to take 2 year data plan for Comcast and they say you have to take a voice plan as well and if you want to do tethering you have pay a added fee. Now say you want to have more then 1 pc then you have to not pay added voice line fee you have to buy a full data plan as well. And they each have there own data bucket. But it's better that you can now use the steam and the MS app store then in the past where we only let you use the comcast app store.
And say you want that Zell gameing rig we don't have it but we offer much faster download speeds then att that does offer that system.
And OSX isn't going to make a dent in the embedded and custom product world world. There is no embedded OSX and you can't customise the UI.
Who?
Well, if you're talking market share, there are something around 1 billion PCs out there. I think we're about to hit, what 30 million tablets? If you want to talk market share, tablets don't even exist yet. There are a lot of smartphones, but I don't see how smartphones are replacing PCs.
Microsoft sales fading.
Microsoft unable to compete in any field.
So Microsoft senior person says "pc days are over".
Akin to the Captain of the Titanic claiming, as the last few feet of the Titanic's stern slip beneath the waves, "this is the end of trans-atlantic cruise ships".
Cluez for Corporate retards...
Everyone I know has a pc. Everyone I know wants a better pc. Everyone I know wants an iPad AS WELL. But not instead.
My Model M is full of enough marijuana crumbs to get an elephant high.
Now if you'll excuse me, I'm in the middle of rolling this blunt.
It takes your program folder, then renames it, to Programs.old, then installs the Windows 8 OS. Everything on your computer is busted up. Your option is to reinstall your old system from scratch.
Being more than a little pissed,
At your own foolishness, I suppose?
Windows 8 was very easy for me to uninstall. I just deleted the VM.
...what do you think's going to happen when SolidWorks (or more likely, a startup competitor) comes out with a version designed for a touch screen interface? Or AutoCad, or a hundred other applications which could actually be 10x better on a touch screen than mouse/keyboard, when properly designed?
These belong to specific genres of games (social and casual gaming) that don't tend to be I/O intensive
Which are by and large the most important majority of the market.
The ever-increasing speeds of computers makes any "too resource intensive" argument fall flat. What is impossible today will be commonplace a few years down the road.
World of Warcraft is another "most popular" game for which the mobile platform is inadequate.
Because it was designed for a mouse and keyboard. The graphics certainly aren't flashy enough to keep it from running on a tablet. It just might be awkward to use because it wasn't designed for a touch screen.
In other words, a neutered PC with the usual hardware that costs more than a PC with the usual hardware. And it'll have an additional mode of failure, the smart phone/pad.
Correct, which is why the GP is wrong. The future "PC" will be more like a flat screen TV hanging on the wall that you walk up to and start interacting with. The invention of sensing technology that doesn't require you to actually TOUCH it, as well as enabling more complex gestures, combined with very accurate speech recognition, will basically spell the true end of the PC era. The mobile version of the same device is a present-day tablet or smart phone which has more limited versions of some of the same apps, as well as other apps which make sense in that particular platform.
This is the future, and we are building it now.
While there is a small market for dumb terminals, anyone who has tried to make them for the masses and/or general business got burned badly.
Regardless of what happened in the past, the *future* market for dumb terminals is HUGE. When processing power becomes largely irrelevant, as it's becoming, then the attention turns to cost cutting. You will be able to stamp out 100,000 dumb terminals, which require far less power and maintenance, and far cheaper and easier to deal with than 100,000 full featured, self contained micro devices. IT man (the only one at this company) takes it out of the box, plugs it in, turns it on, walk away. Maybe in the process scans it past some kind of automated RFID tool/scanner (tablet-like device) to "provision" it, or select an employee to "assign" it to.
The microcomputer era, in the business world at least, is coming to an end.
The one key enabling technology preventing this is the development of a good and powerful "web" platform that doesn't suck, i.e. NOT HTTP/HTML/AJAX/CSS/JS/WTF/OVR.
No, they are most certainly not a fad. It's just the technology is still in its infancy and there is a ton of development left to be done before this technology is as truly usable as is promised. It's going to be killer for sure.
Today we are basically reliving 1990 all over again, in terms of the state of today's mobile market compared to the PC market then. There is a lot of opportunity out there for people to try new and bold things.
Actually more like 1980-1985 in some ways.
I reserve judgment til I see the final product. I'm betting Microsoft knows or suspects this interface is kinda clunky, and it putting it out there to see how the world reacts. There's still a chance some changes will be made before release. Personally, my overall impression was negative. It was too confusing.
Microsoft is a big company with a lot of leverage in certain key areas these days, not the least of which is gaming.
Guess what happens when Microsoft starts leveraging its HUGE existing Xbox and PC developer base to develop for the Windows 8 Mobile devices? Why the hell would you, as a hip teenager, buy an Android device if you could get an array of Xbox360-level games on a Win8 Mobile device, as well as tons of other stuff ported/written by the huge droves of people who will flock to a platform you can develop for without having to use fucking JAVA?
The only one who can stop them is Apple, so that's why Microsoft is RUSHING to get this Windows 8 thing in high gear and get the developers on it as quickly as possible. I daresay they may succeed.
Sorry, that quote I credited to Ruhroh should have been to lgw
I thought so too, until I saw a Metro UI with real data. Then, those "empty" tiles become mini-dashboards of continuously-updated information. The flat presentation style is actually a benefit: just enough organization to hold things together, not too much to get in the way of quickly scanning the tiles for updates.
"We receive as friendly that which agrees with, we resist with dislike that which opposes us" - Faraday
Shiftless wrote :-
The future "PC" will be more like a flat screen TV hanging on the wall that you walk up to and start interacting with.
Codswallop. You will ask people to stand up, walk around and wave their arms like idiots just to see their e-mails and surf? It is one thing to use your fingers on a fondleslab, quite another to have to wave at full-sized screen.
Once upon a time people had to stand up and walk to their TV to change channels. Then, guess what, someone invented the remote control and all previous TV's were tossed in the skip. The mouse/pad/trackball is the remote control for a computer. You want the mouse to be "uninvented" - good luck with that.
This is the future, and we are building it now
That sounds like a marketing soundbite to me.
http://www.ubuntu.com/devices/android What makes this different is that your phone automatically shifts between ubuntu and android versions of the same apps, based on whether or not your phone is docked. All your data is stored in the same place (on your phone and in the cloud). It's a great insight: the UI one develops for a small form-factor really needs to be different from a large form-factor. But that difference doesn't mean you have to use completely different apps, and it certainly doesn't mean your data should be in two different places.
"We receive as friendly that which agrees with, we resist with dislike that which opposes us" - Faraday
There's so much nonsense there that doesn't have any actual content, it's all about semantics misunderstood.
"Post" implies that something has passed. Since PCs are still around, we're not in a "post-PC" era. It really is that simple. Don't let marketing speech and idiots looking for a soundbite mess with our language.
What these people are really meaning is that we are in an era where the PC is not the only computing option available anymore. But the invention of the automobile did not push us into a "post train era", because the two are not two things for doing the same thing. Trains are still around, even though we have other transport available.
PCs are likely to stay around, because mobile phones, tablets, embedded computers, etc. etc. all have their own niche and while some things that were only possible on a PC until recently are now possible on other devices as well, it's nonsense to talk about "post-PC". That's just a term some fucker came up looking for a headline that would stir people up and catch their interest. On the Internet we call these people trolls.
MS is worried and vocal about the whole thing because their ecosystem relies on the PC, and they missed the train (again). Apple never worried about which era they were in, they simply created something that people wanted. Maybe MS could try that approach for a change, build something that people really want, instead of building things they think are cool and then trying to force everyone to use it whether they want to or not.
Assorted stuff I do sometimes: Lemuria.org
I think a lot of Microsoft's success with consumer-grade PCs has been because of their dominance in the business world.
No. It's due to their anti-competitive tactics used to sustain an illegally obtained monopoly on the PC market. Business use of Microsoft products was driven from the home, and Microsoft used client penetration into business to drive server sales. Most businesses already had networked clients with office and other application software running on whatever network OS they supported. The problem from a user perspective was learning two of everything (OS, office software, etc.) which drove demand to have the same environment at work as at home. This changed the dynamic in businesses from server-focused to an unsustainable client-focused and now we need "the cloud" to get us back to server-focused.
I don't know if this is a likely outcome at all, but what if Microsoft did a last-minute change and abandoned the whole Metro UI? They would notice that "hey, it really does suck", listen to users and concentrate on other improvements.
There's been some radical ideas for upcoming Windowses before, but in the end we have just got a "Windows 95" with some new eye candy and different arrangement of buttons.
I just wanted to bring this option to the table to play with. :)
In a period of 10 minutes of me using my Windows 8 tablet to show someone some code I've been writing today, 3 people actually hopped online to buy themselves a Windows 8 tablet as well. They loved it because they could replace their Windows PC and their iPad with a device that weighs the same as an iPad 3.
:)
I actually feel like while Microsoft hasn't "Gotten it right!" on Windows 8, they've gotten it "A hell of a lot closer to right" than either Apple or Google did. Give it time and a few patches and I think they'll nail it.
Too bad... I don't know what to do with the iPads in my house anymore and I'm seriously considering Windows Phone now since Windows 8 is just so damn nice. And the fact that it runs iTunes and lets me keep everything but my games (which I never play) and TomTom, makes it perfect
Don't start counting any chickens... but yet... it won't take long before new PC sales pretty much flood the market with it.
Then we can discuss what constitutes sanitary.
Sounds more like your lack of imagination speaking
I think how the post-PC era develops is largely based on how much people want to compartmentalize their computing lives.
Right now, a half-decent laptop can more or less "do it all". It can run hardware intensive applications, crunch loads of data, play graphically rich games, store or create music, video, manage and edit photos. Or, on the other end of the spectrum, you can check your e-mail, and surf Facebook and look at photos of cats with inane subtitles. A half decent smartphone can fill in any other gaps, while providing a surprising amount of the same functionality in a pocketable form factor.
But, as my friend once observed, people like putting different parts of their lives in boxes. We have a vast array of different mediums for what basically comes down to sending text (and maybe attaching a few photos or videos) over the internet. E-mail, SMS, MMS, all manner of instant messaging applications, Twitter... Theoretically, any one of these services could completely replace the others. Most smartphones these days have e-mail on them. Why do people still use SMS? Because every variation on what is fundamentally the same thing has slightly different applications associated with them. We use SMS for idle chit-chat, or truly short messages that don't warrant a phone call. We use e-mail for more "involved", but often lower priority things. We use Twitter and Facebook to vomit our random thoughts at a massive audience. For whatever reason, social convention has dictated that each of these technologies be used slightly differently. Where am I going with this?
I'm fairly certain computing will develop in the same way. People don't seem to like a "one size fits all" approach. While a smart phone can do basically all the same things a tablet can, people still want that bigger screen around, and they use it differently. While a laptop can do anything a tablet can do, and way more, tablets are increasingly becoming the average person's go-to simple computing device. If someone needs to do some heavier computing, they'll use a laptop or a desktop. A lot of us seem to think that tablets are just for our grandparents. But, I see just as many geeks with iPads as I do grandparents. I don't think computing experience will dictate what people use. I think these subtle social conventions will tell us when we should use a tablet, when we should use a desktop, when we should use a laptop, when we should use a smartphone.
This is where I differ from the norm to some extent. I like to have everything as consolidated as possible. I started with a series of self built desktops years ago. Then I got a laptop when I needed a computer I could take places, and I realized I hated keeping the two synced up. I hated going back and forth. So, I basically just ended up using the laptop while my desktop sat there collecting dust. I eventually sold the desktop. Of course, I found the laptop (a 2008 Macbook) somewhat lacking in power lately, so I opted to retire it and get a laptop that would give me the same portability (more or less), while also giving me a pretty decent amount of power for recording/mixing music, gaming, working with Adobe's creative suite, etc.. So, I got a 15" Macbook Pro, and it's now my only computer. And I like it that way. I have an iPhone as well (yes, bit of an Apple fanboy, move past it!), and between that and my Macbook Pro, I just can't fathom adding another device for me to use. Were I to get a tablet, I'd either almost never touch it, or I'd have the urge to use it for everything... which is completely impossible with tablets in their current state.
But, as I said, I'm not the norm. I do think that tablets are currently building on and defining their role in our computing lives. And, since your average user doesn't program, record music, isn't a graphic designer, isn't a professional photographer, doesn't play demanding PC games, or any of that... I think these post-PC devices will become the norm pretty soon. Even geeks who still want the raw power of a PC will probably turn to tablets for their more basic computing needs, because just like everyone else, they like to divide their computing life up into a bunch context specific of boxes.
Post PC world? Yeah right. Smart phones and iPads are nice gadgets, but they have 2 serious problems that prevent them from replacing PC's: the screens are too small to be really useful, and they have no keyboards. The importance of keyboards is vastly underrated in all this. We have had a basic keyboard layout for over 100 years, & although the devices attached to the keyboards have changed drastically over the years, the keyboards themselves haven't, and won't, ever. There simply is no better input device. Keyboards allow the user to use all 10 fingers at once, more or less independently, and what's more, in near-silence. Remember Dragon? How noisy would modern offices be if that had worked? No, we're stuck with keyboards for instances when we actually have to get stuff done with our computing machines, which means PCs. They're not going anywhere anytime soon.
You were talking market share. Let me quote:
Don't worry. Traditional PCs are also growing in market share.
The Tao of math: The numbers you can count are not the real numbers.
watch the D8 conference with ozzie and monkeyboy being interviews...very ackward.... ballmer was clueless about the cloud and amazon... and ozzie actually made some sense... ozzie then gets sacked
Is it normal for a keyboard to bleed?
This is the same mistake Apple spouts and it's the assumption to sell a gadget world, a simpler than PC (and transportable) world, because the masses are not smart enough to handle a real computer workstation, or they don't need one. If MS really think's PCs are not for the masses then they should put their money where their mouth is and have all MS employees including software devs switch to pads. Ridiculous.
It used to be that we said that "The Desktop Computer Is Not Going Away Any Time Soon"
Well. . . that was a long time ago.
These are my friends, See how they glisten. See this one shine, how he smiles in the light.
I love playing MMORPG's and on the occasion FPS's, currently no mobile device can provide me with a high resolution 22" (minimum) display to game on... So for me, mobile devices are out-of-the-question as far as gaming is concerned! I'm sure mobile devices will "somehow" provide large displays (projection or "VR glasses") one day, but right now they don't. I'm sure I'm in the "minority", but for me a smart phone is nothing more than an electronic calendar that can make phone calls!
No, they are most certainly not a fad. It's just the technology is still in its infancy and there is a ton of development left to be done before this technology is as truly usable as is promised. It's going to be killer for sure.
Today we are basically reliving 1990 all over again, in terms of the state of today's mobile market compared to the PC market then. There is a lot of opportunity out there for people to try new and bold things.
Remember that the 1990's had a lot of fads, particularly electronic ones.
BTW, the computers infancy was in the late 70's. The 80's was the computers adolescence, the 90's was when they became commonplace. By the 1990's computers had sorted themselves out into a solid set of standards which enabled greater competition. Tablets aren't at this stage and will never reach it if Apple gets their way.
Tablets have a good chance of just being a fad, as I said, most people who buy them end up using them less then the computers they already had. Tablets will end up that way if they dont become capable of interacting with a live PC as a peripheral.
Calling someone a "hater" only means you can not rationally rebut their argument.