Can Microsoft Afford To Lose With Windows 8?
snydeq writes with the opinion that Microsoft can afford Windows 8 failing on the desktop. From the article: "Windows 8 is an experiment that may well fail, but Microsoft will cull invaluable feedback for Windows 9 in the process, long before Windows 7 runs out of gas, writes InfoWorld's Serdar Yegulalp. 'Can Microsoft really afford to alienate one of its biggest market segments for a whole product cycle? In a word: Yes. In fact, doing something this risky might well be vital to Microsoft's survival,' Yegulalp writes. 'Microsoft needs to gamble, and right now might well be the best time for the company to do it. The company needs to learn from its mistakes as quickly and nimbly as they can — and then turn around and make Windows 9 exceed all of our expectations.'"
Microsoft has managed to weather several OS flops (Windows Me anyone?) thanks to their domination of the market, but with Android gadgets and iPhones becoming pervasive can they pull it off again?
This has happened before, and it will happen again.
Windows 95 - Stable
98 - Bluescreening POS
2000 - stable as a rock
ME - less said about it the better
XP - Good enough that MS is having a tough time getting people to part with it
Vista - Disaster at launch, heard its better post SP1 but thats too late
7 - Quite good
8 - likely to be rejected by enterprises for a kiddish interface unless the UI changes
Microsoft are marketing experts. There will always be the masses that are suseptible to the hype of marketing... that's what it's designed for. You can see as the names are totally emotional and illogical (XP, Vista, 7 now 8). With each version it's just another version of Windows NT... Of course they need to fix a few things that don't work too well (or at all), and also add features for the geeks. But the main thing is to make it look new and 'trendy'.
I read every day about how Apple has won and everyone had an android phone, but in the real world, the people who say "what's slashdot?" also don't remember Windows ME or Microsoft Bob. And a computer is a Windows machine and you write Word docs, and you "make a PowerPoint" for a presentation.
Sure, people complain about Windows, but macs are just too weird and, after all, it's just a tool.
At least in this school district, they've trained another generation who thinks that computer == Windows.
Apache guy, Open Source enthusiast, runner
Irrespective of wether you use Windows or not, thousands of Windows PCs around the world are sold everyday by multiple vendors backed by hardware / software warranties. What happens if Windows 8 fails ? Nothing. Windows 7 will cascade the failure until next product refresh. Tablet or PC, is not a question faced by CIOs for 90% of their workforce still. The fact in case that Windows 8 works great, if happens true, is immaterial!
I come to Slashdot only to read sigs. One you are reading is mine.
instead of releasing a version people don't want and "culling valuable feedback", why release what people don't want in the first place?
Who's asking for this stuff?
Don't people actually do, you know, work with their computers? Invoices, reports, letters to vendors and customers, research, etc.? Also dev, CNC, CRM, CMS, movie/pic editing, and more.
Who is it that stares at their start menu/screen/whatever all day and gush with wonderment? People with work to do open their programs in the morning and ... work.
On the other hand, I have to grudgingly admint (as a Linux fan) MS really has something going with Sharepoint and OneNote. Cool stuff in the window environment/OS? Not so much.
I'm not a lawyer, but I play one on the Internet. Blog
Windows Vista alienated many corporates, who went straight from XP to Windows 7. The same will probably happen with Windows 8.
I'm surprised that many in the industry don't see tablets for what they generally are: a useless niche device surrounded by endless media hype.
Apple's success with smart phones and tablets is very misleading. Execs and managers see high sales numbers for these devices from Apple, and think that there's some sort of real demand, driven by utility. That just isn't the case when dealing with Apple, however. People generally buy Apple devices for reasons of vanity, not utility. Apple peddles a religion more than it peddles technology. Certain foolish people will spend huge amounts of money on anything Apple cranks out.
This is exactly why basically every other attempt to get into the tablet market has failed, or at best has not been a complete disaster. Samsung, HP, and RIM, among others, are excellent evidence of this. They went into the tablet market thinking they were selling technology. They suffered from comparatively few sales, because very few people actually need or even just want tablets for any useful purpose.
Tablets are much like Ruby on Rails. Yes, there's some small technological element. But the hype isn't about the technology. It's about the semi-religious culture infecting the people who hype and use the technology. In the case of the iPad, it's about owning devices with the right logo. In the case of Ruby on Rails, it's about buzzwords. It's not surprising that so many of the staunchest Rails advocates are also Apple users. They're a perfect match of hype, ignorance, and a false sense of superiority.
In fact, it's doubtful that any other company or project can actually compete in such a situation. There are only so many fanatics to go around, and these fanatics are very reluctant to not follow the chosen path. The moment they start to deviate, they become individuals, and thus lose much of the comfort that comes from being part of the Apple or the Rails cultures. That's why I suspect there can only be, at most, one hype-driven, quasi-religious consumer base for vanity technologies. They inherently have to be a monopoly.
Have you seen the consumer preview? M$ has screwed the pooch so badly with W8 that even now they're talking about how W9 will fix its problems...even before it has even been released.
Of course MS can afford a product cycle that isn't hugely popular. Their biggest competition for Windows 8 is Windows 7, which gets the job done for most people. Vista sucked in large part because people were quite happy with windows XP and didn't really want anything else.
Where they can't really afford to flop is in mobile. But they seem to have the right general idea, one core OS for both desktop and mobile (making cross platform development and use much easier), and then something that is unique from iPhone/Android. Whether it gets market traction or not who knows, but they seem to have some generally good ideas. Their desktop... meh. People can stick with windows 7 for a year or two longer while they figure out what the most important things to change from 8 are.
The other thing is that many of us on /. may not quite grasp how normal people use computers, and how much simpler something like live tiles could be. How many computers do you see that have a desktop full of icons, people who can't manage simple things like bookmarks etc.
And as I say, it's not like MS has any meaningful competition in the desktop space right now. Arguably there is a surge in mac uptake among young people especially, that poses some potential longer term risks, but then Apple without the reality distortion bubble is going to have a much harder time in the long run too, so that provides some longer term advantages. Probably it'll even out in the end.
MS was able to afford mistakes in the desktop market because they were pretty much a monopoly. They had a huge user base that would just wait. The customers had no real alternative.
MS is not in the same situation with the mobile market. They are not a monopoly, they do not have a significant market share, and it is a different market.
Only time will tell if MS makes the right or wrong choices to win back some of the mobile market share.
note: I deliberately avoided the whole topic of the mobile and desktop OS markets merging.
Keep the Classic Slashdot.
Years and years of Microsoft going "what does the consumer want" has lead to this. Uncomplicated. Pretty. Microsoft needs to take a page from apple--step back and objectively ask "would I enjoy using this piece of shit?". Ask their tech support "would you enjoy troubleshooting this piece of shit?". That would be some constructive feedback.
In a world where gadgets replace personal computers does Windows 8 or 9 even matter? Wouldn't Windows Phone be the relevant operating system? It's not like if Windows 9 is suddenly amazing, people are going to start shoving laptops in their pockets.
So far in fact that its its being swamped by the waves of derision. I can't believe anyone at MS seriously believes that whats a good UI for a handheld keyboard free tablet with touch interface is a good UI for a desktop corporate PC with a mouse. Sure, the old XP/7 style UI can be used but why should you have to dig around for it, why isn't it the default and why should app developers have to decide whether to develop for Metro or "Legacy" Windows? Sorry , this makes no sense - MS have seriously fscked up this time. I'm sure under the covers that Win8 is a very professional OS , but the Metro GUI is going to kill it in MS's cash cow sector - ie corporate unless they sort the mess out now. Many corps are only now considering Win7, there isn't a cat in hells chance of them considering Win8 with a Metro interface.
The summary says, "Microsoft has managed to weather several OS flops (Windows Me anyone?)"
In my opinion, those are not "flops". Microsoft apparently deliberately releases bad versions to make more money. I understand that it was discovered during the Vista court case that a Microsoft top manager said the Vista was not ready for release, but Vista was released anyway. (I could not find a reference to the exact language.)
Microsoft released bad versions in the DOS days, also. In all cases of which I am aware, there was no free replacement. Buyers of bad versions were expected to pay again.
I wonder if Windows 8 will actually default to the correct time zone _after_ I've already told it what country I am in. I was amazed to find that Windows 7 still, after all these years, didn't when I was setting up my new laptop last week.
I'm surprised that many in the industry don't see tablets for what they generally are: a useless niche device surrounded by endless media hype.
Agreed, they have no user file-system, no world-class 4G wireless, and less space than a nomad, and that's why they're selling tens of millions a quarter....
http://www.statista.com/statistics/165489/global-sales-of-apple-ipad-by-quarter-since-2010/
Tablets are much like Ruby on Rails...In the case of the iPad, it's about owning devices with the right logo. In the case of Ruby on Rails, it's about buzzwords...They're a perfect match of hype, ignorance, and a false sense of superiority.
The only ignorance and false sense of superiority I've encountered about rails was from haters who have never used it. Have you? It's just a web framework, maybe one of the better ones, maybe not, but it has become the focus of ire perhaps because people are so insecure in their technological choices they feel the need to look down on a web framework (WTF?). Rails is useful for some sites (I have used it on some myself), and other languages like PHP or Java have their place as well depending on specific requirements and code available in libraries etc. Buzzwords don't come into it, nor do logos, at least in my case, and I've never met anyone who made their choices based on such things. If any widely used web language deserves to be panned, it's PHP for its awful, messy API, though they have cleaned up their act recently. Rails is pretty middle of the road, and it's just a web framework.
As to the iPad, it's a pretty good device, for what it is, and frankly it covers 100% of the computing usage pattern of most people I know (web, email, games) - yes it doesn't cover the needs of everyone, but that's ok, if it is popular it's not going to cause your computer to be confiscated or to spontaneously combust - you can continue to live in a world where the iPad is popular, and feel no pain, so long as you can manage to tolerate the thought that others might have different needs to you. Can't think why anyone would buy something purely because it has a logo on it - I bought an iPad because it is a good tablet, and I wanted a tablet to read the web and mail on, that's it, and it is has served admirably for that purpose.
In fact, it's doubtful that any other company or project can actually compete in such a situation.
Bullshit. Android has been doing pretty well, in spite of fragmentation and several mis-steps by Google like Google Play. The only people who think like a cult are those who feel they must oppose everything Apple or everything Rails without question or thought. If you want to criticise Apple, criticise their predatory business practices, their monopoly on the marketplace, their banning scripting from the store, their blatant ripping off of other developers, but don't try to criticise a device which is best of class, and really popular, as somehow doing well because it has a logo or people are enlisted in a cult! People are buying the iPad in their millions because it is good, and they find it useful. Deal.
I have heard people say numerous times that they don't want a Windows phone because they don't want a phone that crashes or is insecure
So instead they run Android.
lol
Except Win 2000 wasn't a Tock, Maybe you meant Me?
Except that W2K was actually decent... It was ME that sucked.
retrorocket.o not found, launch anyway?
The problem is that Microsoft wants to get into the phone & tablet markets, where their marketshare is more like 1%. Metro in that market by the accounts I've heard from people who have a Windows Phone 7 is pretty good.
It's a really bad strategy when you take a tablet UI and force it on Desktop PC users though. That's where I agree with you. They're screwing up the market they have to try and create a unified platform for a market they don't have, and I don't think it's going to work.
-- "So they told me that using the download page to download something was not something they anticipated." - Bill Gates
Marketing experts? Bill Gates in a mall eating a f*cking churro and wiggling his butt walking though the parking lot?
Yes, marketing experts. For a certain market.
Bill Gates sure does look like the type of fellow who blends right in a bland corporate world, doesn't he? That's what Microsoft products have always been out--tools to get the job done, in a style and presentation that is attractive to mass market corporate types.
You could try to pay me to accept a copy of Windows 8. I would gladly accept money to install Win 8 into my garbage can.
>For simple reasons: It is coherent
Windows 8 is about as coherent as a a drunk who has just finished his third bottle of Mad Dog 20/20.
Two competing UI paradigms powered up in the same OS simultaneously is not the definition of coherence and consistency in UI.
--
BMO
I figured that I'd just do what I did with Vista, and run the server edition of Windows 8 instead of the consumer edition, so that I can have all the new capabilities without the tablet UI.
No such luck.
I ran up the beta and got a few things up and running on it, and it's just mind-blowing to experience how horrendously unusable it is first hand. This is the server edition, mind you, and it had animations, things sliding around, the start menu is gone, and some notification popped up that said something like "tap here to view details". Tap? On a server? Are you kidding me? Everything is a tablet now?
The strangest thing is that the PowerShell 3 command line is so fantastically good* that I almost don't care that they've fucked up the GUI, but for most people any improvements are going to be swamped by the atrocious user interface.
They've stuffed up everything. Things like the new Server Manager look pretty, but it does odd things like adding new menu items after a delay. After clicking some item like a server role, at first maybe only three or four menu items would be shown, so you think, ah well, nothing I can do here... and then after two seconds more menu items appear out of nowhere. If you're like me and click fast, you can miss critical things because some idiot decided to lather on the WinRT asynchronous APIs without any thought to the impact on usability. It's one thing if a placeholder changes after a delay, but to keep structure hidden until an arbitrary delay is a huge design flaw. And why the fuck is it asynchronous in the first place, anyway? Why aren't menu items known ahead of time, like you know... in all other software ever made by man?
Everything has cute tiles now, none of which are big enough to show their text content, so you find yourself having to choose between "Active Direct...", "Active Direct...", or "Active Direct...". It doesn't help that the icons are all cool and Metro and lack distinguishing characteristics.
I love the nested scrollbars, where the horizontal and vertical scrollbars are attached to two different controls with different sizes, where one of them can be used to scroll the other scrollbar into an invisible location.
Of course, everybody has covered the idiocy of Microsoft deciding to eliminate the Start menu, but on Windows Server it's particularly bad because there's a vaguely similar looking icon in its place! If you don't click exactly in the corner of the screen, you launch Server Manager instead, which is not a lightweight app, and can take a while to launch even on an SSD. Expect to learn quickly from your mistakes, because you'll be punished for making them. A lot.
I still haven't figured out how to quickly get a list of all start menu items, without first searching for something and then erasing the search term so that everything matches. I'm sure there's a better way, but it's not obvious to me.
Some of these things might be a bit nitpicky, but from what I've seen the flaws are pervasive, and it's a bad sign that even the most commonly used GUI screens have glaring usability problems despite having what appears to be final layout and artwork.
It's one thing to grumble and have to get used to something new and different if it's better, but it's a whole different story when I'm forced to get used to something that is not only objectively worse, but also totally inappropriate for the type of product: "tap here" on Windows Server Datacenter Edition tells you everything you need to know about Microsoft's myopic vision.
*) While they've added some impressive features to PowerShell 3, they've fixed none of the bugs. For example, (Get-ADUser "invalidusername" -EA SilentlyContinue) still throws an exception even though it was told to fail silently. This bug affects a lot of different things and was reported to Microsoft back when PowerShell 2 was still beta! I'm going to whip my crystal ball out and predict that this bug will not get fixed until, lets say, PowerShell 5 Service Pack 2, at which point nobody will care because we'll all be using Apple computers and Google cloud services instead.
instead of releasing a version people don't want and "culling valuable feedback", why release what people don't want in the first place?
Who's asking for this stuff?
"If I had asked customers what they wanted, they would have told me faster horses." -- Henry Ford
I think you mean ME was a crock, not a tock.
I don't understand why everyone (including MS I guess) thinks tablets will eventually replace PCs. Is it just that I and everyone I know are way more verbose than the average person? Are people really going to tap out blog posts and forum posts and emails (not texts/tweets) on glass horrible excuses for virtual keyboards? really?
They have an input problem, and I don't see ANY solution that will make them a serious computing option within the next 10 years, barring a docking station that just basically makes them a PC anyway (at which point what is the point?). Voice control may not ever work, much less "soon," glass keyboards seem fine in the store, but if I had to type even this rant on one, I might shoot my tablet instead.
I have a tablet with a full usb keyboard, and that works, but I mean it isn't even more portable than a laptop at that point.
Win95 was available on CD. I have a Win95 CD still at home.
"That's the way to do it" - Punch
I cannot believe all these people here posting that the desktop is dead, tablets are the future, and no one is going to use a full blown PC except for hardcore gamers.
Dudes; wake the f up. In the corporate world, the desktop PC is everywhere. What do you think people in offices are doing all day, surfing facebook? They are not because facebook is blocked by the corporate proxy.
No, the are running spreadsheets, inputting data, copying data out of custom apps built in-house that speak to gigantic Oracle databases, and pasting that data into word documents, and writing a ton of material to explain that data so that it can be understood by MBA suits who decide what stock they are buying this microsecond.
All that isn't going to be done on a tablet. Not this decade, at least.
I need two monitors at 1280 x 1024 to get my work done, and I'm still losing windows under all that clutter. I have to monitor 4 different exchange mailboxes, I have 3 browser windows, a rumba session to the mainframe and several instances of notepad and MS word running. And a CMD/DOS session for FTP, and a window to my share on the SAN.
I have to run Firefox for external web browsing but IE8 to access the internal intranet, as the apps don't format correctly under firefox.
Our machines run 24/7 because a night-shift comes in to take our places when we leave for the day.
If you really think a tablet is going to replace this infrastructure any time soon, I don't think you understand just how entrenched large corporations are in the PC. And it took them decades to get here, we still have old-timers who have worked here since before the PC was a part of the corporate world, and they only know how to use the phone, they don't send emails. Of course, most of the these folks are close to retirement.
But that means that it took 40 years to get to this point, and I think it's going to take 40 years to move to some other technology that's radically different, like a tablet.
Microsoft is smoking crack if they think we're all going to smoothly transition to a Tablet OS, even on our desktops, in anything less than 10 years.
If telephones are outlawed, then only outlaws will have telephones.
Windows XP was just a bloated remix of Windows 2000. One thing that also seems to be often forgotten is that XP had initially horrible security, and malware was everywhere - it was SP2 what finally made things sane.
NT4, 2000 and 7 are the solid ones.
95 was the most revolutionary, as it defined the GUI that we more or less still use.
I once bought a new VCR (Mitsubishi, IIRC) that came with a videotape explaining how to hook it up to your TV.
Remember "News for Nerds, Stuff that Matters"? Help make it a reality again! http://soylentnews.org
"Windows ME wasn't that bad"
Are you kidding..., ME was the biggest abortion of an OS Microsoft (or anyone) has ever released by a long shot. Vista was great by comparison. Buggy as Hell, a rushed OS that should have never been released.
If you could reason with religious people, there would be no religious people
"The problem Win7 has now is that there isn't that big a price difference between comparably equipted macs and PCs."
Mac quad-2.8(45nm) 3GB-ram(3x1) 5770 1TB-hd $2500 (Mac store right now)
PC-Custom quad-3.3ghz(32nm) 16GB-ram 2x8(Corsair) AMD7950 2TB-hd 256GB SSD(Samsung 830) Seasonic Gold(89% low 92% avg 95% max efficient) 650watt PSU Win7 prof $1850 (NewEgg right now) .......
All you need to do is to make the Metro layer optional, with an easy, obvious on/off control. Default to "Off", but switch it to "On" if a Metro application needs to run. Be able to run the Metro UI in a minimizable, resizable, Z-orderable window.
The Start menu UI should be put back, in both "Classical" and "Vista" formats. This UI can be also hidden; I can see the value of doing that in kiosks and other limited-purpose setups.
If Metro is enabled then switching between the two should not result in loss of functionality.
If they need more ideas they should just pay an average, random business in Redmond for the right to "borrow" all their employees for a day, and collect all the opinions about Win8. Majority of non-geeks don't want changes, and geeks don't want to cram changes down other people's throats because the tech support night mare becomes even more nightly and marish.