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Despite Drop In Piracy, French Music Industry Still In Decline
New submitter Hentes writes "France has one of the strictest anti-piracy laws. After 17 months of operation, Hadopi has released a report, claiming that illegal P2P downloads have been reduced significantly in the country: the studies they cite measured 43% and 66% decrease in copyright infringement. But that huge amount of 'lost revenue' doesn't seem to show up in the French recording industry, as the overall recorded music market has decreased by 3.9% in 2011. Even more interesting is that digital music sales have skyrocketed in France. Could it be that it's not piracy killing the traditional recording industry but digital distribution?"
French music sucks.
NEXT!
An enigma, wrapped in a riddle, shrouded in bacon and cheese
Of course it's the digitable distribution model that is killing traditional music sales. Every week, I get 10 hours of free music in the form of podcasts from my favorite DJs. Why would I go out and pay for music when I can legally get it for free? And the DJs rake in their big bucks not from CD sales, but from their world tours.
Occasionally living proof of the Ballmer peak.
Or maybe it's simply crappy music that's killing the traditional recording industry.
The reporting on this issue has been pretty crappy.
What I want to see:
1) Rates of sales decline for the previous couple of years
2) Rates of sales decline for neighboring countries or otherwise similar markets
Without information like that, we can't even begin to have a meaningful discussion as to whether or not HADOPI is "working" or not. So far its all just been hand-waving over half of an equation.
When information is power, privacy is freedom.
The industry died over 30 years ago with the VCR
“He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
It's called Youtube
Come to my house. Bring a few bottles of wine and a blank hard drive. You will leave with more music than you can listen to in decades. Heck - a decent sized thumb drive can provide months of musical amusement. Online is dead. Offline is the future. Never underestimate the bandwidth of a station wagon filled with terabyte hard drives...
Shoes for Industry. Shoes for the Dead.
I know that France had laws to push French content, so I can see a shift to digital distribution would undermine local content laws and hit French artist that way.
But I would guess that young people are just not used to paying for music. I mean, more young people, if they were to buy music, would do it online. But a lot of them just won’t.
Which makes the summary off. Who cares if there is a large percentage increase in digital music - from a low base. That just means people who are buying music are switching for one format to another. Maybe buying a top single track is more cost efficient than buying an album? That goes too for the monthly subscription / rental model. (For a bad analogy, after I got Netflix my movie going dropped, so my total dollars spent on “movies” dropped.)
How could digital distribution kill the recording industry when they would still be getting all the profits from digitally distributed music?
Troll is not a replacement for I disagree.
But that huge amount of 'lost revenue' doesn't seem to show up in the French recording industry,
But it does. Right there in the decline. Check with a hundred of your closest friends if the following sentence is true: "The more exposure to new music I have, the more likely I am to go and buy some."
Music isn't like food. You don't notice its absence much. If you go without your iPod for a month, you're not going to miss it all that much after the initial adaptation is over.
If you reduce the amount of music that people have available, you reduce the demand for music.
Assorted stuff I do sometimes: Lemuria.org
They already have. Many, many videos are blocked here in Germany because the GEMA or SME or whatever other crappy music-mafia content parasite organisation wants to be paid for every view.
And it's not just music videos, including official band channels. It's also videos where you hear a song in the background.
They probably held a brainstorming session on how to make the general public pissed off most efficiently as an April Fool's prank and then nobody noticed that the notes were found by a secretary and sent down the chain of command to be actually implemented. It's the only rational explanation I have.
Assorted stuff I do sometimes: Lemuria.org
Where can I get that new Obamarama record?
The French are selling them at the Obama Beach in Normandy.
Ezekiel 23:20
Sarkozy is going to be sleeping on the couch for a week at this rate.
This is simple to understand, the majority of torrent users would not buy the music if torrents werent around anyway, they download stuff freely to try stuff and often delete it. The music industry has changed, its not enough now just to sell music, its about getting embedded into the current cultural trend and doing tours! Artists need to work for their money now by travelling and giving a deeper experience to the fans! its as simple as that!
You mean the RIAA was LYING to us?
I just cant believe that!
Do not look at laser with remaining good eye.
You could almost say the French music industry is...retreating.
I only use youtube to "pirate" Japanese music videos, because I have no legal way to view them. Amazon has been getting more and more mp3s of stuff I want to listen to, and once that started I began buying them to support that. I'd love it if I could pay some subscription fee and get some kind of streaming Japanese MTV, or if Amazon started selling music videos in the same way they sell mp3s.
Is the overcharging for mostly pop garbage in a tough economy.
---- Booth was a patriot ----
Or, maybe it's lousy music that's killing the traditional recording industry? If the only two choices are piracy or digital distribution, you have likely oversimplified.
Unfortunately, the music industry doesn't seem to be able to believe that one of the reasons people are buying less music is because they're not as interested in it. They just think they should be able to extrapolate from 30 year old numbers and say that should be their level of sales.
In case they haven't noticed, people might have less disposable income to play with -- and Angry Birds might be dipping into that.
Lost at C:>. Found at C.
It's poor reasoning to think that a reduction of piracy will mean an increase in market shares, as though those two variables are causally linked and somehow have inversely proportional growth. I would be surprised in the rates of growth of these two variables are not causally linked, though. But that's because loss in sales in the music industry is calculated by estimating the total volume of pirated music, and then multiplying that by the music's marketable value. So 100,000 albums pirated at $10 a copy means the industry "lost" $1 million. But it doesn't follow a certain percentage of those who pirated the album would have purchased it - many would rather not have the album at all than pay the costs to own it. So the labels are still at a loss - they need people both NOT to steal the music, AND to purchase it. Anyways, so if you stopped 80,000 of those 100k pirated copies from going out, it necessarily follows the industry's monetary "loss" will go down as well. It does not translate to a growth in profit or market share. Those variables aren't even linked for the purposes of this discussion, it doesn't make sense to staticize them or correlate them in a way the industry itself isn't even doing. This isn't rocket science, people. It's not even high school algebra.
From Rob Reid's TED Talk (http://blog.ted.com/2012/03/20/the-numbers-behind-the-copyright-math/):
"I used it to compare the industry's revenues in 1999 (when Napster debuted) to 2010 (the most recent available data). Sales plunged from $14.6 billion down to $6.8 billion - a drop that I rounded to $8 billion in my talk."
Let's try a quick run-through on the "switch-to-digital" math:
iTunes sales in 1999 (the first year cited above): $0.
iTunes songs sold in 1999: 0.
iTunes songs sold in 2010: 6b.
Music Industry Sales in 1999: $14.6b
Music Industry Sales in 2010: $6.8b
Track Cost in 2010: $0.99
Album Cost in 1999: $14.00
Now suppose that people only bought the good tracks, instead of whole albums -- the new iTunes way of buying music. Suppose also that piracy had zero impact on sales. What would the above sales figures imply about the number of good tracks (tracks that sell) per album?
Albums Sold in 1999 = $14.6b / $14 = 1.1b
Tracks Sold in 2010 = $6.8b / $0.99 = 6.8b
Tracks sold in 2010 per album sold in 1999 = 6.8 / 1.1 = 6/1.
So, what that says is that if all music sales had become digital single tracks, we would now be selling 6 single tracks for every album we used to sell.
Bear in mind that this is an upper bound case, assuming all sales have become digital. That is not realistic, but it gives us our first measurement. Let's see if we can refine it a bit with some estimates from iTunes.
iTunes is the single biggest seller of music and sold 6 billion tracks worldwide in 2010. Suppose iTunes sold 2b of those tracks in the US and all digital vendors other than iTunes sold another 1b combined in the US. In that case:
Album Spending 2010: $6.8b - $3b = $3.8b
Album Price in 2010: $16
Albums sold in 2010: $3.8b / $16 = 237m
Tracks sold in 2010: 3b
Albums sold in 1999: 1.1b
Missing Album Sales: 1.1b - 237m = 0.9b
Tracks Sold per Lost Album: 3b / 0.9b = 3 / 1.
These numbers are still estimates, but that calculation shows that one reasonable estimate is that we are now selling three digital tracks for every one album we used to sell, if we assume that Internet piracy had exactly zero effect.
It is within the reasonable bounds of the data I could find quickly that the entire reduction in US music sales is due to migration to digital single tracks.
Stop-Prism.org: Opt Out of Surveillance
They have lied about everything since the beginning. With every new technology, they fought it and lied about it. They have lost here and won there. We lost out on consumer DAT (a huge loss) but won big with the CD. The ability to burn perfect copies of CDs, for example, was supposed to destroy the industry. They made profits in the "worst of times" enough to pay all of their politicians as much as they wanted, wrote and funded the DMCA.
They continue to walk a fine line, but without exception, the publishing industries have made fantastic claims which have invariably failed to come true. It's time for this story to be told and retold over and over and over again until people accept the **AAs for the liars and cheats they are. If the politicians are told the truth, repeatedly and enduringly, they can't claim to have not known. And if they continue to accept the **AA's money, their corruption can be without a doubt.
These numbers are still estimates, but that calculation shows that one reasonable estimate is that we are now selling three digital tracks for every one album we used to sell, if we assume that Internet piracy had exactly zero effect.
It is within the reasonable bounds of the data I could find quickly that the entire reduction in US music sales is due to migration to digital single tracks.
Why would you "assume that Internet piracy had exactly zero effect"? It has had a huge effect.
People hate to buy entire albums for only one or two good songs, so as soon as an alternative was available they took it. Some people pirate music, some buy tracks from iTunes. But ignoring piracy is ridiculous.
could it be? piracy drives music sales up?!?!?!
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/crime/illegal-downloaders-spend-the-most-on-music-says-poll-1812776.html
let's also ignore increase in concert/merchandise revenue from new fans who didn't pay for the music they tried out. i'm not sure that money even goes to the labels.
insensitive clod overlords obligatory xkcd car analogy russian reversals whoosh pedant fanbois ftfy in 3...2...1..PROFIT
Have gnu, will travel.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hawRbECNX8o
Have gnu, will travel.
"claiming that illegal P2P downloads have been reduced significantly in the country"
How exactly would they know that? And is that any justification for harming everyone with draconian laws?
There seems to be a big problem with the French trying to overmanage this situation.
On one hand, there is SNEP which is in charge of the enforcement of the French language quota (mostly on radio for this argument), but apparently is having many issues with this. The number of albums produced in French is declining precipitously from 718 releases in 2003, to 158 in 2011. Also many radio stations struggle to fill the quota with songs that are of similar programming format and thus repeat top rated songs many times to fill the quota resulting in lots of overplay (a similar overplay problem exists in the US, but for different "payola" reasons). After this much overplay you might imagine that...
1. people are either sick of the music and won't download it, or
2. have already purchased the one-and-only copy that they are likely to buy, or
3. have already pirated the music.
Now you put HADOPI on top of this problem of French music piracy. How much can they affect this situation? As the amount of French language music declines, they can affect sales less and less. Seems like a no win situation for the French on this (there have been recent attempts to increase the quota), but just maybe if the quota goes down, people might have more of an incentive to buy music. Seems so strange an idea that it might just work...
Let's say I really like one song on an album, not the rest. Twenty years ago, my only choice was to buy the album. That costs, say, $10. Now, I can just by the song itself. That costs me $1. Do the math.
Digital distribution itself is probablly responsible for a large percentage in declining sales. Used to people spent money buying whole albums, now no one will do that when they can just spend a couple bucks and buy just the few songs off the album they really wanted and forget the rest.
Then lets not forget the music constantly has lied and has constantly tried to skew information in their favor and has constantly railroaded anyone they possibly can in order to get what they want. Why should this not be any different? How exactly do you tell if a deciteful and proven liar is actually telling the truth? And every few years there is always something new thats going "destroy the industry unless its stopped" but it never happens.
I cant speak for the french but Ill speak for the americans. If our music industry declines it will be because of of the riaa, because more bands but out inferior music, and because they try to beat up their customers financially and a lot of times legally. The music industry will cause its own ruin by how they treat their customers.
When "the industry" is in decline, do they mean the publishing/distribution houses are in decline? Or, are artists who have no middle-men and use digital downloads to bring their music straight from the musician to the listener also losing money or in a state of decline? If it is the former then FANTASTIC!
Tracks have generally been priced at $2-3/track in the past, and about $1/track currently (offline or online). It has nothing to do with price and a lot to do with the quality of the product.
The schools can't innovate, they must do everything by hand so that they use as much human labor as possible. Innovation reduces the need for human labor. The public school system is a jobs program for adults. Not a system to educate kids.
I think Apple did very well at $0.99.
There's no reason to worry about mass copying as an music artist, unless people are NOT "pirating" your stuff at all, then as an artist you should seriously ask yourself why masses of people aren't getting your stuff even if it's "free". Unless you don't care at all, in which case piracy is not a problem.
If your stuff is popular on youtube, torrents, rapidshare, you'd do better than someone who only 50 people have heard and only 5 can remember. What you need to do is always make it easy for people to give you money.
Not all French bands sing in French. There are at least 3 great bands who sings in English. Sadly, we don't hear much of them even in France. If you like folk music, try:
- Cocoon
- Herman Dunne
- Moriarty
Get a proxy in a free country.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
Have you got any examples? I'm being serious here, I personally didn't think that French music was particularly good,and i'm not saying that just to have a go at the French, I just thought that French people weren't overly bothered about music to be honest. I'd like to be proven wrong.
How the heck can another sales venue that gives profit to the same people kill them? Can anyone shed some light on this?
What's next? "Is the advent of TFTs killing computer monitor manufacturers?"
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
So each "illegal" download doesn't equal to a lost sale? Who would have thought? I'm shocked.
How do we do the same in the UK?
That's pretty much what I could read out of this.
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
But I think that this gag may have been due to the French surrender to Nazi Germany in 1940. The French government were offered a way of not having to surrender (in my opinion it was an insane idea they were offered) but chose instead to capitulate. It is indeed daft to use that one instance to paint a picture of the entire history of French military power.
I'd love to see some lawyers dance!
(loads 6shooter)
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
What are the facts?
Revenue is down.
Digital sales are up
Now let's ponder how 20 years ago I could only buy the full album if I wanted a sing, knowing well that it will be the ONLY good song on the album, and today I can buy that very song simply with the click of my mouse on iTunes.
I wonder whether this could have anything to do with it, hmmmmm....
We used to have a Bill of Rights. Now, with the rights gone, all we have left is the bill.
Latin tradition is about excelling.
And when you excel they kill you - by gunpoint, galley slave or by cuddling you to extinction.
Whoops, just wanted to mention "Les négresses vertes".
Well if you are talking about decline, they haven't had a new album in years and years. I do not count the TRON soundtrack.
If the came out with a new album I would buy it in a heartbeat. Likely would all of their fans. That alone would likely bolster their "music industry" like U2 in Ireland.
That said, when I read the title, I was more thinking "french speaking" not of french citizenship. Music that is not instrumental or in English, but in French, has by definition a limited audience. There isn't all that many french speaking people in the world (by comparison to everything else). Also, though I have no data to back it up, it might be interesting to compare the 4% loss, to what the decline is in actual french speaking people, maybe that has simply dipped 4% overall in the world. That would be the simplest answer. I know here in Canada, Quebec is constantly at war trying to protect its language from being swallowed up by English etc...
Thats cuz french music sucks...i could explain, but why bother...
Bands themselves often prefer to DIY, many feel the big label's distribution network no longer justifies the loss of freedom and control over their own work
How do these bands that go DIY, writing their own songs, shield themselves from allegations of accidental infringement a la Bright Tunes Music v. Harrisongs Music?
they have little to offer that can't be bootstrapped with the take from a few gigs at local bars.
Unless a band's audience includes high school students or college underclassmen, who are forbidden to enter bars. Do all-ages venues have similar expectations of take?
We have enough music. The music industry has been living off reselling much of the same old stuff in new formats, rerecorded. But we don't need to keep getting it. So we stop buying. Sales level off. Boo-hoo. It is not piracy that is ending the boom for the music industry, there simply isn't demand for more. Of course, it would help if they actually produced some good stuff - too rare, too far between.