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Can Windows 8 Succeed In a Cloud-Based World?

Posted by timothy on from the where-does-your-computer-end? dept.

New submitter Nerval's Lobster writes "To say that Microsoft has a lot riding on Windows 8 is a bit of an understatement. The upcoming OS needs to prove that Windows can stay relevant in a world where desktop-based programs are increasingly giving way to cloud apps, and mobile devices are eclipsing PCs as the center of people's computing lives. Can Windows 8 succeed in that mission? The real answer will have to wait, but in the meantime I've laid out some potential success-or-failure factors over at SlashCloud."

36 of 213 comments (clear)

  1. I challenge! by Kenja · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I doubt the validity of both the claims and the question in this article. I dont see "desktop-based programs are increasingly giving way to cloud apps" nor do I see the client OS as a factor in cloud computing (isn't that the whole point?).

    --

    "Have you ever thought about just turning off the TV, sitting down with your kids, and hitting them?"
    1. Re:I challenge! by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

      I'd also throw in that for computing privacy, desktop-based software still leads the way. Web traffic is data mined and sold as is the personal data we put out there on the net. But I can still edit a photo on my desktop in private.

    2. Re:I challenge! by Intrepid+imaginaut · · Score: 4, Insightful

      Agreed. Cloud based systems are a cachet that finds itself most useful for people who are highly mobile, even a low range laptop or netbook these days has vastly more computing power than is needed to operate every application most people might need. Data storage on USB drives and other mini systems are also well capable of absorbing a lot more data than most people produce. I mean any computer capable of playing a modern computer game can do almost any other task with ease, and cloud computing isn't useful for most of those other tasks.

      The "cloud" is being heavily promoted for a variety of fairly obvious reasons, but to me its a solution looking for a problem, with as much value as thin client systems have.

    3. Re:I challenge! by Sir_Sri · · Score: 3, Interesting

      *some* desktop applications are going cloud ish, especially things that can be done on the web, and new technologies (that are mostly built from the ground up to be web products) are OS independent.

      And sure, for those solutions windows is no better and no worse than its competitors. Even if that becomes 99% of computer use time. It's still the rest of the time that is the differentiating factor that Windows competes in. To give an extreme contrived example: imagine 99% of my computer use can be done in a webbrowser, in the cloud. the other 1% is diablo 3. Now, I can run diablo 3 on mac or windows and linux. If I just spent 600 or 700 dollars in computing hardware 'extra' to play diablo 3 am I going to now avoid spending another 100 or so on an operating system if that makes it perform better? That's where windows has to compete. They have to do all of the stuff you can't do in the cloud better than everyone else. Better can mean a lot of different things to different people of course.

      Admittedly, the question sort of implies a connection with Office and Windows, which is fair enough, if not all that clear in the summary. How office will survive, when there are cloud document systems that are much more reliable than traditional office on a desktop ever can be might be fair question, but that's why windows 8 is integrating skydrive and all that stuff, and office is as well.

    4. Re:I challenge! by ocean_soul · · Score: 2

      You're absolutely right. The PC is not going away for serious work or for gaming. So whether or not Windows 8 will survive does not depend on the evolution of the cloud. Personally, I think Windows will be around for a long time to come. If only because of there gigantic install-base. It is possible that Windows will, slowly, lose some of this install-base to linux but this will not happen suddenly. And Windows surely won't lose it to tablets or smartphones.

    5. Re:I challenge! by jythie · · Score: 2

      Yep. And in another 15 years we will go through it again.. and again.. and again. The pendulum between server-centric and workstation-centric stuff keeps going back and forth.

    6. Re:I challenge! by CodeBuster · · Score: 2

      He's always got his desktop with fast local access to network resources

      The key word here is local resources. That's where the cloud tends to fall down, especially for the sorts of live action personal productivity apps that are common in the workplace. This category would include general office productivity (document editor, spreadsheet, presentation builder, etc), engineering and drafting (AutoCAD et al), video editing and graphics (Adobe Suite), or software development (Eclipse, Visual Studio, X-Code, etc). The losses as cloud apps lag and try to keep up are especially noticeable for power users who create and edit large or complex files, make frequent use of keyboard shortcuts and have high WPM typing speeds. They expect a workstation that can keep up and any lag on the part of a cloud app is simply unacceptable. It was the same problem with "thin clients" (remember that fad?) until workstation hardware became so cheap that the thin clients' margins completely evaporated and the idea was finally put out of workers' misery. The biggest cost in business, at least in the developed world, was and remains labor. It makes no sense to cheap out on hardware, virtualization or cloud apps if it costs even just a bit of worker productivity on a regular basis. It's a false savings.

  2. What's a "cloud-based world"? by Rosco+P.+Coltrane · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Sounds like bullshit world to me...

    Tell you what: the "cloud" hype will come crashing down the minute some big company that invested massively in off-site services and storage loses internet connection for a few hours...

    --
    "A door is what a dog is perpetually on the wrong side of" - Ogden Nash
    1. Re:What's a "cloud-based world"? by gstoddart · · Score: 2

      Tell you what: the "cloud" hype will come crashing down the minute some big company that invested massively in off-site services and storage loses internet connection for a few hours...

      In fairness, people said the exact same thing about outsourcing of things like your IT infrastructure.

      There's loads of companies that farm out their storage and a few other things like that.

      That doom and gloom didn't come true either.

      Companies are more interested in saving money than incurring a small amount of downtime (depending on what the systems are) ... so in the same way that IT outsourcing is still around, I can 't see "the cloud" suddenly toppling over in one go.

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    2. Re:What's a "cloud-based world"? by marcosdumay · · Score: 2

      Big companies make private clouds for their mission critical server needs.

      Those are called datacenters. Yep, big companies are using them for a long, long time. They also like to keep their private cloud local, to not depend on internet conectivity.

      --
      Rethinking email
    3. Re:What's a "cloud-based world"? by srmalloy · · Score: 2

      The whole 'cloud computing' thing seems to me to depend on three things: First, do you trust that the server(s) for your apps are going to have both 100% uptime and 100% connectivity, second, do you trust that your data is going to be secure both stored in the cloud and in transit to/from the app server(s), and third, what is the cost of moving your data between cloud storage, the app servers, and your local machines compared with having both the data and apps local?

      Now, I can see where cloud computing could be a godsend to the software publishers; once they no longer have to contend with the stumbling block of users being able to continue to use perfectly-functional but outdated software and avoid paying for new versions, they can establish a continuous revenue stream, because they can keep the software on their servers, and users will have to keep paying year after year for continued access to the applications.

    4. Re:What's a "cloud-based world"? by ArcherB · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Sounds like bullshit world to me...

      Tell you what: the "cloud" hype will come crashing down the minute some big company that invested massively in off-site services and storage loses internet connection for a few hours...

      For some reason, I'm not seeing Windows8 to be oriented towards business. I'm sure MS will try to force it, but I just don't see that tablet interface running on a typical workstation and certainly not a server.

      --
      There is no "I disagree" mod for a reason. Flamebait, Troll, and Overrated are not substitutes.
    5. Re:What's a "cloud-based world"? by Penguinisto · · Score: 4, Interesting

      Even a "private cloud" can cause troubles.

      I used to work for a place with manufacturing facilities in Oregon and California. All of production (stupidly) relied on a BI cluster located in OR. In spite of numerous demands to have it made redundant, the dumbass IT head insisted that dual connections (through two differing carriers) would supply sufficient redundancy.

      What he didn't count on was a (IMHO drunk) CAL-TRANS worker accidentally digging up a few fibers, which in turn knocked all of Ventura County into the dark for almost a day - including both carriers. When that went down, so did production. 17+ hours at ~$4500/minute downtime gets awful expensive. A backup/replicated cluster at the CA site would have only cost about 3-4 hours of that time at most, but would have saved them a whole lot more.

      --
      Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
    6. Re:What's a "cloud-based world"? by zrbyte · · Score: 2

      Agreed.
       

      mobile devices are eclipsing PCs as the center of people's computing lives

      "eclipsing"? Oh please. Quick poll: How many of you are posting your comments from a smartphone, tablet?

    7. Re:What's a "cloud-based world"? by master_kaos · · Score: 2

      I work at a small company where we used to have a server colocated for $300 a month which included unlimited bandwidth and bit level backup. Not a bad deal. About a year ago we decided to switch to AWS. We are now paying approx $200 give or take 20 bucks. After moving we have never had downtime, and also have great scalability. Oh, we also have 4 servers running 3 micro, and 1 medium. It was well worth the move, the scalability alone is amazing.

    8. Re:What's a "cloud-based world"? by cant_get_a_good_nick · · Score: 2

      I think the 'will the cloud guarantee 100% uptime for your apps' thing is a bit of a red herring. I can't guarantee 100% even if it's inhouse. Though, obviously, I know the failure modes a bit more.

      I think there's a huge subset of IT departments out there that are not as technically skilled as {Amazon,Google,Azure,etc.}. For them, they won't worry about this part as much.

      Granted, there are a lot of other things to worry about once your data hits "the cloud" but for uptime only, I'd trust a Google engineer more than I'd trust most people I've worked with.

    9. Re:What's a "cloud-based world"? by Kalriath · · Score: 3, Interesting

      That is completely wrong. The server owner has as much claim on the data on the servers as you do - specifically, none. In the event of a liquidation sale, the liquidator would wipe the drives, and if they fail to do so, releasing confidential info from the drives is a criminal offense. Absolutely not "free and clear" and definitely not "public domain".

      --
      For a site about things like basic rights, Slashdot users sure do like to censor "dissent".
  3. What does that even mean? by pegasustonans · · Score: 4, Insightful

    "Cloud-based world"? Did the marketing team write that up?

    Anyway, Windows 8 will do just fine, especially because Microsoft is falling all over itself trying to be tablet-friendly and all of the other bollocks that'll generally make it a pain in the ass.

    But, as in many things related to the traditional desktop PC, the reports of its demise have been greatly exaggerated.

    On a related note, Windows 8 will be just as relevant to the business market as they ever were once you disable the terrible new UI, and that's all that matters anyway (whether businesses choose to skip Windows 8 in favor of waiting for the next iteration is another possibility, but unrelated to all the tablet nonsense).

    --
    And all our yesterdays have lighted fools The way to dusty death. --Will
    1. Re:What does that even mean? by SJHillman · · Score: 5, Interesting

      I think the business market will largely skip Windows 8 like it did Vista. It's more likely Windows 8 will be akin to a botched beta to try new features (IE: Metro) and see how the market reacts - similar to how Vista was. Then Windows 9 (like Windows 7) will take the good and strip out the bad from its predecessor and be the next Big Thing like Windows 7 was. It's not the first time MS has launched a product that will likely fail just so they can use the data to make the following product a blockbuster.

    2. Re:What does that even mean? by gstoddart · · Score: 5, Informative

      I think the business market will largely skip Windows 8 like it did Vista.

      I would tend to agree ... but not because they're "avoiding" it (though that might be the case), but because people are really still in the middle of deploying Win 7.

      Where I work, rolling out Win 7 has been in the planning stage for well over a year. We're going to start rolling it out fairly soon to users.

      Which means at an enterprise level, Vista got skipped because people were waiting for it to get sorted out. Win 7 is ramping up, but not everybody has gotten there yet. And all of the organizations who are just in the middle of putting out Win 7 will end up skipping Win 8 because Win 9 (or whatever) will be out by the time they're ready to change anyway.

      The reality is, corporate stuff happens on a *long* timeline, and it isn't something you can change direction mid-stream on.

      Though, for my own personal machine (which is also due for an upgrade), I will likely opt for Win 7 because Win 8 is a fresh steaming release which I don't trust. (Actually, I don't thin it's fully out yet anyway.)

      --
      Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    3. Re:What does that even mean? by steveb3210 · · Score: 2

      Windows 8 will be just as relevant to the business market as they ever were once you disable the terrible new UI, and that's all that matters anyway (whether businesses choose to skip Windows 8 in favor of waiting for the next iteration is another possibility, but unrelated to all the tablet nonsense).

      Atleast in the consumer preview, there is no way to disable metro, there is no start menu to fallback to..

    4. Re:What does that even mean? by gmhowell · · Score: 2

      Windows 2000 falls under "NT 5" so the claim still holds :)

      Well, Nemesis sucked, so there are exceptions to these rules.

      --
      Jesus was all right but his disciples were thick and ordinary. -John Lennon
  4. Enough of this cloud BS by JDG1980 · · Score: 4, Informative

    The problem is actually exactly the opposite of what the original poster thinks. Microsoft is making too much of a break with the past with Windows 8, being far too quick to chase trends and forgetting that real work is done on the traditional desktop and will continue to be for the forseeable future. The cloud is a fad that will flame out after the first couple of high-profile security breaches and/or data loss incidents. Tablets are great as consumption devices, but not if you're actually doing real work.

  5. Better question: by Penguinisto · · Score: 2

    Can Windows 8 succeed in a cloud-based world where ISP/carrier bandwidth caps are becoming prevalent?

    --
    Quo usque tandem abutere, Nimbus, patientia nostra?
  6. Re:even better question: by thePowerOfGrayskull · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Can Windows 8 succeed in a cloud-based world where ISP/carrier bandwidth caps are becoming prevalent?

    Can the cloud-based world succeed in a world where ISP/carrier bandwidth caps/overages are become prevalent?

  7. Forget about the cloud by satuon · · Score: 3, Interesting

    Microsoft's biggest challenge would be to convince people that Windows 7 is somehow not good enough anymore and they can't just use their current computer until its harddrive gives out. How many years until there's software that won't run on Windows 7? Or XP for that matter.

  8. Do you want dumb terminals and remote mainframes? by DutchUncle · · Score: 5, Informative

    Because that's what this whole cloud nonsense really means - going back to the hierarchy and control from which personal computing freed us.

    Every time a game or program requires remote authentication, the reviews are scathing; yet somehow there is still a push to a paradigm of remote *everything*. This is completely inconsistent with the observed preferences of knowledgeable users. Of course, business management loves the idea - they see the control of centralization without even needing an in-house IT department. For anybody else, it means giving up the rights to your own computer.

  9. The cloud fills a nitche by Karmashock · · Score: 2

    It does things the desktop apps didn't do before or didn't do very well. There are a lot of things desktop apps do a lot better then the cloud.

    Neither one has to displace the other. It's like music and movies. You don't really consume one to the exclusion of the other. Ideally the cloud and desktop apps should learn to get along because in that way they can both play to the other's strengths and cover the other's weaknesses.

    --
    I've decided to stop wasting my time responding to AC trolls/sockpuppets... so if you want a response from me... login.
  10. Re:even better question: by Electricity+Likes+Me · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Oooh I live in Australia: no!

    Seriously, how anyone uses any of the cloud-based services I know about was a mystery still I started realizing what type of internet you could get for $70 a month in the US.

  11. Re:even better question: by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    No. And Windows 8 can't survive in any world. Metro is going to sink Windows.

  12. Wrong questions by werewolf1031 · · Score: 3, Insightful

    As a decades-long desktop- (and now laptop- and tablet-) user, I do not want "cloud based solutions". If the cloud-based bullshit goes down, or if the power goes out locally, or my ISP decides to take a crap, my shit better still be there... or rather, HERE. Locally. On a disk. It can be one of my hard drives, or my USB SSD drive, or my LAN-accessible network drive, whatever, but if I don't have direct access and control of my shit, then something is WRONG, and all the "cloud" solutions in the world won't help me at that point.

    My second Android tablet, an Asus Transformer, came with some kind of cloud storage service. I've never touched it; never felt the need to. I'm not paying someone else to store my own stuff, especially when most of it won't even run on ARM devices anyway.

    Yeah, I use Dropbox to keep files synchronized across devices. The difference? I still have access to my shit when I can't access the "cloud" for any reason.

    Honestly, this "cloud" nonsense has to stop. The marketing bullshit has to stop. Just call it what it is: Internet-based storage. Which means, if you can't access the Internet, you can't access Your Stuff. It's off-limits to you. WTF is the point? As a remote backup? Ok, I can see that. But as real-time storage that you can't control? Screw that.

  13. The marketeers koolaid is actually poison by WaffleMonster · · Score: 2

    It is really sad we have all this technology only to see it wasted on nonsensical bullshit designed to extract every penny from every imaginable sale channel rather than provide value to the paying customer.

    The EE guys are taking names and kicking ass while software finds new ways to waste every new transistor and radio tower thay are given.

    I am ashamed of myself and my industry.

  14. Re:even better question: by Darinbob · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Seriously, here in the US I don't know of any individuals using cloud based services, it seems to be mostly a pipe dream for corporations hoping to unload some of their infrastructure costs. It's a silly idea that's being hyped to death, and this article is just one more example of the hype (ie, by assuming that cloud based world will exist it prompts the reader into accepting that premise).

  15. Re:even better question: by dimeglio · · Score: 3, Insightful

    I agree. Cloud based services exist for the short sighted few who see IT as a cost center when in fact IT should be considered a key factor in driving up enterprise competitiveness through increased efficiency.

    --
    Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the author.
  16. Re:even better question: by Dreth · · Score: 2

    I don't know of any individuals using cloud based services

    the fuck?. Gmail, Google Apps / Docs, Dropbox, BaseCamp, Flickr, Spotify, Netflix. Most individuals I know do almost everything they use a computer for "in the cloud". The corporations are the ones that seem to be holding on to legacy standalone apps.

    None of those things are really relevant to the business world. You don't share DVDRips or ISOs over a network for your buddies at work, you don't have any need to watch movies or upload 100 pictures from that Canon of yours at a workplace, the only semi-useful thing in there are Google Docs (don't count Gmail since any e-mail is just as efficient in sending and receiving e-mails) but then again, most corporations already have volume licenses so that's not even that big a hassle.

    --
    All glory to Arstotzka!
  17. The Desktop isn't going away by TnyLtSprGy · · Score: 2

    Despite what the mobile world thinks the desktop system will probably never go away. Any real content creation need to be done on a desktop system. And the demands of Localized Storage, Fast Speed, Security, and Offline Connectivity and others will likely make cloud/browser based solutions an inferior choice for years to come. Who's going to want to sit down to a smart phone at their office?