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Mt. Fuji May Be Close To Erupting
SpuriousLogic points out an article at Wired discussing research into pressure levels inside Mt. Fuji's magma chamber, which scientists claim is higher than it was in 1707, the last time it erupted. "The new readings, taken by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, reveal that the pressure is at 1.6 megapascals, nearly 16 times the 0.1 megapascals it takes to trigger an eruption." A series of earthquakes shook the area around Mt. Fuji a little over a decade ago, and a fault line was discovered underneath it. "Since the March 2011 tsunami and the 6.4 magnitude earthquake that followed four days later, Japan has been on tenterhooks, and in May 2012 a professor from Ryukyu University warned that a massive eruption within three years would be likely because of several major factors: steam and gases are being emitted from the crater, water eruptions are occurring nearby, massive holes emitting hot natural gases are appearing in the vicinity." While the rising pressure within the magma chamber is of concern, it is but one factor among many that lead to eruptions.
I am going to Japan in October, so in addition to earthquakes, tsunamis, radiation, ninjas, and godzilla, I now also have to worry about lava??? Damn...
My mountain asplode!
A feeling of having made the same mistake before: Deja Foobar
They have indeed had more than enough of natural disasters, as well as self-triggered disasters.
>the pressure is at 1.6 megapascals, nearly 16 times the 0.1 megapascals it takes to trigger an eruption.
I'm no mathematician, but I'm pretty sure that 1.6 divided by 0.1 is *EXACTLY* 16.
- First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then ???, then profit.
From the article: "Regions that would be affected, including Kanagawa, Yamanashi and Shizuoka, plan to hold a test run of an evacuation by 2014, with a meeting of local governments covering progress of the plans and of shelter preparations slated for April 2013." It seems if the pressure is higher than the last time the damn mountain went boom that they would speed up preparations a tad. Wow, laid back disaster relief.
ACK
Fuji is just one large soda bottle then?
Keep the mentos away from it.
I am Bennett Haselton! I am Bennett Haselton!
Or leave it there for science. If Fuji-san erupts and buries the park on top in lava and/or ash, how long will the coke inside the cans stay fresh? We could dig it out a hundred years from now to check on the carbonation levels.
Occasionally living proof of the Ballmer peak.
Pressure vessels get increasingly difficult to build as their size grows.
When a 150 PSI compressor tank goes (and they do, even though they are made out of steel, a lot thicker than a soda pop can) they take away the room with them.
This pressure vessel is probably miles on a side, and the walls don't have good tensile strength - it's just gravity that's holding it down.
In short converting it to Olde English units doesn't help.
could they maybe drill a set of holes and
1 steer the lava to someplace NOT populated
2 prevent the lava camber from going full bore BOOM
when using Po^HMnt Fuji for your scam always set your clock for Volcano Day
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Any vulcanologist around that can explain why we can't relieve the pressure in some way.
All ideas^H^H^H^H^Hprocesses in this post are Patent Pending. (as well as the process of patenting all postings)
The new readings, taken by the National Research Institute for Earth Science and Disaster Prevention, reveal that the pressure is at 1.6 megapascals, nearly 16 times the 0.1 megapascals it takes to trigger an eruption
If that's what it takes to trigger an eruption, why didn't it happen 1.5 megapascals ago?
systemd is Roko's Basilisk.
There is an amazing new thing out there called an online dictionary. Perhaps you might consider using one?
The truth is that all men having power ought to be mistrusted. James Madison
They're hooks used in a device called a tenter.
It's possible they're just confused because a number of people seem to mispronounce it as "tenderhooks".
This Space Intentionally Left Blank
How exactly do they measure the magma pressure?
I looked through this whole page on volcano monitoring techniques, and it never mentions monitoring the pressure.
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1.6 MPa = 232 psi (pounds/sq in). High, sure, but within the level you can contain in a soda pop bottle
Would this explain the Chinese military's program to develop a really big Mentos?
"Our two-party system is like a bowl of shit looking at itself in a mirror." - Lewis Black
Having it expressed in units familiar to us Yanks is quite useful. Putting it in psi let me see right away that it's about 16 times atmospheric pressure (which I know to be ~14 psi, so x 16 = 224). Hmmmmm, 16x, 16x...where I have seen that number before? Oh, yea - in the summary, where it says, "16 times what it takes to trigger an eruption".
So after seeing that, it's clear that all the article's breathlessly informative science tells us that what it takes to trigger an eruption is to have pressure inside the volcano is....wait for it....HIGHER THAN THE PRESSURE OUTSIDE. Wow. We couldn't have figured that one out ourselves.
So, yes, the guy posting the Olde English units not only gave me a better understanding of the forces, it helped me understand the article was more than a little sensationalistic. Which to me is damn helpful.
I think this is Mother Earth's way to tell all AGW'ers that, "Hey I can fucking take care of myself."
Seriously, though, I wonder how much ash this will put in the air and how much it will cool the Earth's warming, if at all? This seems like it could be a major ELE, or it could be a major dud.
21st Century Renaissance Man
Ever since then, I was wondering why Japanese scientist weren't worried about Fuji. - Now I know: They ARE worried.
___ I don't respond to Anonymous Cowards, and I Never Mod them UP.
I love looking up an mid-18th century phrase so I can understand a 21st century article about an active stratovolcano that last erupted at the beginning of that18th century.
You didn't know what a tenterhook was either unless you were/are a historic actor fuller specialist or a Chris Mars fan. (A what who when?)
For every benefit you receive a tax is levied. - Ralph Waldo Emerson
Godzilla!
No good deed goes unpunished.
I climbed Mt. Fuji about 4 years ago and all I can think about is whats going to happen to all the people who make a living off the mountain? When you get to the top there is actually a small village on top with shops and homemade food for the people who make it, even at the bottom theres tons of base areas for people to stock up on supplies before the trek. Even along the way there are rest stops and marker points with people to provide services if needed and to sell food. Its a shame to think that all the people located anywhere near that area could possibly lose their entire way of life.
I hiked around Mt Fuji in 2009. It's a beautiful area surrounded by a nice town and tons of hotels and tourist areas. It's pretty scary that it could pop at any moment. There will be lots of lost life and property if it erupts big.
My God can beat up your God. Just kidding...don't take offense. I know there's no God.
Here is an excerpt from an article called "Social Impact of an Eruption of Mount Fuji"
(www.hiroi.iii.u-tokyo.ac.jp/index-katudo-kyodo-kenkyu-hujisan-shakaiteki-eikyo-english.pdf)
"The current study focuses only on possible damage from ashfall in an eruption of Mt Fuji
that is comparable to that in the Hoei Eruption. If there are other volcanic disasters such
as landslides, lava flow and pyroclastic flow, the damage will be even greater. The
important message sent out by this study is that even ashfall alone can cause severe
damage: the social and economic impact will likely be felt by the entire nation, not just
restricted to a local area around the mountain.
The following topics will be important from a policy science perspective:
1) socioeconomic impact of interruptions to transportation and logistics including the
expressways (Chuo, Tomei, Metropolitan), bullet trains, metropolitan and other train
networks, and domestic as well as international air services;
2) verification of the primary and secondary types of damage postulated by this study;
3) closer study of damage to the manufacturing industry caused by the uncertainty
perceived by suppliers and customers and damage to the tourism industry due to
cancellations by consumers; and,
4) study of ash removal methods (based on experiences in past ashfalls) and their
feasibility.
The present paper is an interim report of the work to create an eruption scenario based on
the interview-based surveys. It is our plan to conduct questionnaire studies of
businesses, survey researches, interviews of local agencies in the areas of past ashfalls,
and expert surveys in disaster-related fields. The scenario will be refined through
critiques and discussions as a re sult of these further works.
As far as the specific effects and implications of ashfall are concerned, the current study
has based itself on interviews with disaster-prevention practitioners in companies,
different levels of governments, and lifeline services. The following effects are left for
future study:
- implications on sewage-system overflow, flooding of rivers (problems in
drainage when ashfall is followed by rain );
- estimated volume of ashfall that will settle on riverbeds (estimating the
probability of flooding) ;
- effects of volcanic ash on wireless communications and radio waves;
- effects of volcanic ash on water quality;
- effects of volcanic ash on outdoor precision equipment and automobiles
and other machinery;
- effects of volcanic ash on boilers and combustion systems (since ash
affects airplane engines); and,
- indoor pollution by volcanic ash and its effects on precision equipment
indoors.
It is, strictly speaking, important to conduct empirical studies in engineering and physical
science on these topics, but apparently not too much has been done in this area. When
more is known about these topics, the present scenario of ashfall damage equivalent to
that in the Hoei Eruption could be further refined."
This may sound very ignorant, but when something is pressurized, can't you just open it up and release the pressure? Grab some remote control drilling rigs, plop it down in the crater and let it get to work, release the pressure slowly so that it doesn't come out with a bang at random. This way too, they can tell the surrounding area that they may have to evacuate during the drilling process, just in case, and potentially save lives instead of having a random boom?
They probably figured it out based on the pattern and quantity of ejecta. i.e. to launch boulder of this size this distance and to cover this area with this much ash then, assuming the lava reservoir was roughly the same size as it, the pressure needed to be X.
Laissez lire, et laissez danser; ces deux amusements ne feront jamais de mal au monde. - Voltaire
...was roughly the same size as today,...
Laissez lire, et laissez danser; ces deux amusements ne feront jamais de mal au monde. - Voltaire
Last I had looked it up, they measured height variation, and with an estimation of the size of the magma vessel and the expected overhead mound of rock/dirt they would evaluate what kind of pressure was required to obtain the difference.
16 atmospheres is a better way of putting the entire discussion. One does have to wonder if the 0.1 MPa = 1 atmosphere (more or less) as an eruption threshold is relative to atmospheric pressure or above it. I'd be a bit surprised to find any pressures below it. It's also the (surplus) pressure at the bottom of 160 meters of water. That's a lot to contain if an earthquake or godzilla creates a defect in the dome that leads to 1 atmosphere air.
But hey, if the historical record teaches us anything, it is that volcanoes happen, sometimes rather explosively.
rgb
Even when the experts all agree, they may well be mistaken. --- Bertrand Russell.
Quick somebody call Shinji, we might be facing Sandalphon
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Being cold and analytical here about primary effects (I know there would be tremendous deaths and human suffering) if it happened within the next year or so, this would probably put the world into a worldwide recession or depression. The American economy is recovering, but very weakly. Europe is on the skids, and China is slowing fast. If Japan's economy was broken for any extended length of time, it would easily push us over the brink into a worldwide skid, causing tremendous secondary human suffering all around the world.
Big news for everyone.
I think Seattle is far enough away to just get ash fall. Tacoma, Puyallup, and Sumner on the other hand, are directly downstream and are going to get BURIED by the lahars coming off the mountain. A few small towns and a lot of recreational area are going to get hammered by the pyroclastic flows.
Is it weird in here, or is it just me?
assuming rocks were the same size as today. i believe rocks grow an inch in diameter every year, due to the sun's effects on the rate of radioactive decay
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
wait for Japan to come to you.
if this is supposed to be a new economy, how come they still want my old fashioned money?
computers never lie. but "idle time" is actually spent figuring how close they can come and still not be lying.
if this is supposed to be a new economy, how come they still want my old fashioned money?
Program Fuji;
var pressure : longint;
function Get_Pressure : longint; := 1700000
Begin;
Get_Pressure
End;
Procedure Blow;
Writeln("boom");
End;
Begin := Get_Pressure;
pressure
if pressure > 1600000 Then
Blow;
End.
(* been around 20+ years since I last used Pascal. Does this even compile? *)
Yes, they good boom very nicely
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bU-I2ZiML0
Now pressure itself doesn't mean squat until you multiply it with a surface area and get a force.
But again it is rather meaningless until you compare it with what is containing it, in this case it will be the earth surface, possibly in the shape of the volcanic cone. That cone is 3,776 m (12,388 ft) high and dozens of km / mi wide, the magma chamber with a volume of about 1400 km3 (335 cu mi) lies at a depth of around 56 km. (35 mi.)
So what meaning does this puny 1.6 megapascal have compared to the ~14,000 bar (200,000 psi) in the magma chamber???
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Heh, I was wondering if anybody was going to bring up the Chris Mars connection to tenterhooks. It was the first thing that sprang to my mind, but I am a huge Replacements fan.
"But this one goes to 11!"
When I glanced at the headline, I thought it said "Mr. Fuji may be close to erupting", and thought we better call Vince McMahon.
Can't they measure seismic as well? The velocity a wave travels through would be effected by the medium's pressure, no?
There are tons of earthquakes going on all the time that seismometers can pick up. Compare what others receive vs what those that would be occluded by the magma chamber and you might be able to deduce something? (especially in comparison to normal behavior)
For large sets, this will be our guide even unto death, for the LORD will work for each type of data it is applied to...
Sounds about right. Should pop around the end of December.
Say hi to Ryumyo for me.
Minne-snow-da: Winter is comming...
It takes just 100 kPa to trigger an eruption-- that's just under 1 atmosphere (101.325 kPa). Talk about a hair-trigger!
A bent over nail used to hang things, original cloth.
Two of my imaginary friends reproduced once
not to hand thing from, to prevent cloth drying on a tenter from shrinking.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
man doesn't know the science, claims it can't be true. News at 11..on Fox.
The Kruger Dunning explains most post on
The reason why Renton is so flat is because the last time Rainier erupted (about 10,000 years ago) the mud slide from the melted glacier reached all the way to the south end of Lake Washington. When a wall of steaming mud hits a lake at 90 miles an hour I'm not sure that even the Gates house is high enough up the hillside to keep from getting wiped off the map.
"Think about how stupid the average person is. Now, realise that half of them are dumber than that." - George Carlin
182cm / 6'0", but thanks for playing.
Alanis, you oughta know: she's older than you, more mature than you, and can show some restraint in a theater
Force = Pressure times Area
Pressure over Area or divided by area
Apparently that can be worked out from the amount of lava from the previous eruption and the conditions (fluidity of lava etc) known now. It's along the lines of there being X amount of lava that ran out so the pressure must have been Y.
don't worry, on december 21st everyone can stop worrying about everything
intellectual property law is philosophically incoherent. it is your moral duty to ignore it or sabotage it
I suggest a little less confusion between fantasy and reality to avoid childish expectations of "moving a hundred thousand people in the space of five minutes across a hundred kilometers". If modern knowledge had been applied to Krakatoa there would have been close to a month of warning before the main eruption. Rabaul was successfully evacuated a few years ago when there was high threat of eruption. Worldwide there are plenty of evacuations when disasters happen, and the common thread when it works is that the people organising it have been through the sort of exercise we are discussing here, even if it's scaled down, they still give it a try and get the bugs out with practice.
Once again, the difference between childishness (horse judge with no plan or your "too hard" answer inspired by movies) or somebody that has thought about the situation for at least a couple of minutes (I'm sure they've got plenty of experts in civil defence).
Maybe the Japanese are worried about a Mt Fuji eruption because they think the mountain is beautiful now, and change might not improve it.
I believe they think its appearance is important: it is a symbol of the nation.
--
On the other hand there is wabi-sabi.
I guess they could, as I had read they used the wave travel speed to estimate the size of the chamber, since it would propagate differently in the magma vs the rocks around. It would definitely be an interesting read if a very knowledgable guy/girl could post about it ;)
What if the volcano interrupts?