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Amid Fiscal Uncertainty, Venture Capital Is Way Down In Silicon Valley

Hugh Pickens writes "With the 'fiscal cliff' just weeks away, Chris O'Brien writes that venture capital fundraising in silicon valley is down, the amount invested is down, the number of folks investing in venture capital is down, and the number of VC firms and partners are down. 'The people I talked to in the industry sounded grim even as they tried to make the case for optimism,' writes O'Brien. 'Still, it remains difficult to identify a clear path for turning things around for the battered venture capitalists who make Silicon Valley hum.' So what's wrong with the VC industry? The problems are many and complex but they can be boiled down to one thing: Not enough exits. For the size of venture capital being raised and invested, there simply aren't enough initial public offerings of stock or mergers and acquisitions to generate the returns that funds need. Venture insiders blame the global economic uncertainty. They believe that is part of the reason that giant corporations, which have amassed huge piles of cash, are just sitting on it, rather then using it to acquire startups. 'The numbers are way down,' said Ray Rothrock, a partner at Venrock. 'All these companies with these fantastic balance sheets, and nobody is really buying anything. With all the uncertainty they're facing with the economy and taxes, buying little companies is way down on their list.'"

274 of 421 comments (clear)

  1. Oh no by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Investors may have to make their returns by the companies they invest in making successful products that people want to buy. Disaster.

    1. Re:Oh no by amiga3D · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Stupid, you can't read, can you? They aren't investing in anything. The investors are sitting on their money because the economy is so fucked they think they'll lose it on any risk. This causes the economy to stagnate with no jobs created and no revenue to enable the government to pay it's debts or even to meet it's obligations meaning it borrows even more money. Right now we're going down the hole at 100 billion dollars a month and no sign it's going to get better in the near term. It may not be a disaster but it is misery.

    2. Re:Oh no by PPH · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Simple solution: Inflation.

      Want to sit on a pile of cash? Fine. It won't be worth much come next year. Greece and Spain (and the US?) are too deep in debt? No problem. Pay your (fixed) obligations with tomorrow's devalued currency.

      The problem is that the political landscape is being manipulated by people who have tons of cash and demand a risk-free guaranteed ROI. That's what caused the whole mortgage crisis. People with money went to Congress and then Goldman Sachs demanding some sort of paper that had zero risk and paid big interest. And Goldman's Morlocks went to work creating them for all the rich folks upstairs. But then someone blew the horn.

      Sorry. No more free lunch. With return comes risk. Don't like it? Buy a mattress.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
    3. Re:Oh no by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

      The investors are sitting on their money because the economy is so fucked they think they'll lose it on any risk.

      They're the ones who fucked it up and made a tidy profit from it. We shouldn't expect them to just give all back. Heaven forbid they should risk their ill gotten gains.

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    4. Re:Oh no by amiga3D · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I don't think they mind risk so much, it's certain doom they can't abide.

    5. Re:Oh no by amiga3D · · Score: 1

      Well that works well for the handful of stinking rich fuckers out there. Unfortunately the biggest chunk of that capital is in investment funds made up of people's 401K and IRA retirement funds. Good stewards in charge of these funds hesitate to throw the money away as working people count on this money to enable them to buy food and pay their electric bills after they retire. I don't know if you have any such money set aside but I have almost a quarter of a million dollars in my 401K representing over 30 years of hard work and sacrifice and if someone flippantly threw it down a hole it would perturb me somewhat.

    6. Re:Oh no by tacokill · · Score: 1

      The solution is inflation? Scuse me but wtf are you smoking? Inflation screws everyone. Especially the poor and working poor.

    7. Re:Oh no by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

      Unfortunately the biggest chunk of that capital is in investment funds made up of people's 401K and IRA retirement funds.

      And most of that is buried in the derivatives market. That's the hole your 401K is being thrown into, a true gamble, if there ever was one, and it won't take 30 years for it to disappear.

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    8. Re:Oh no by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 1

      Yes, that'll restore confidence -- promose to take the value if they don't spend it, let failure take it if they do invest and lose, and if they invest and win, which they judge unlikely at this point already, have politicians pluck down a much larger chunk of the profits, declaring buisness evil for not paying their fair share; they have a greater ability, and duty, to pay.

      Until moral improves, the beatings will continue. Here's your new program to find people hiding in the closets who want nothing to do with your beatings.

      Nice.

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
    9. Re:Oh no by BlueStrat · · Score: 1, Insightful

      Investors may have to make their returns by the companies they invest in making successful products that people want to buy. Disaster.

      Stupid, you can't read, can you? They aren't investing in anything. The investors are sitting on their money because the economy is so fucked they think they'll lose it on any risk. This causes the economy to stagnate with no jobs created and no revenue to enable the government to pay it's debts or even to meet it's obligations meaning it borrows even more money. Right now we're going down the hole at 100 billion dollars a month and no sign it's going to get better in the near term. It may not be a disaster but it is misery.

      I agree with everything you've stated and I understand your frustration at such ignorance, but you're almost certainly wasting your breath. AC is likely a product of the US public school and university system which hasn't taught students how to think for decades, instead simply teaching what to think. They are simply unequipped to comprehend what you are saying.

      Sadly, this means that your efforts to inform and enlighten many here are much akin to trying to teach a dog to solve advanced differential equations; A frustrating waste of time for you, and annoying as hell for the dog.

      I do love the schadenfreude in that many here who are being negatively affected voted to reelect the guy who promised as part of his campaign and who just announced he would not sign any budget or tax legislation that doesn't raise taxes on businesses and "the rich", which just throws gasoline on the economic Dresden.

      Strat

      --
      Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
    10. Re:Oh no by besalope · · Score: 1

      Unfortunately the biggest chunk of that capital is in investment funds made up of people's 401K and IRA retirement funds.

      And most of that is buried in the derivatives market. That's the hole your 401K is being thrown into, a true gamble, if there ever was one, and it won't take 30 years for it to disappear.

      I believe the GP meant it took 30 years of hard work and sacrifice to save up to that quarter of a million dollars, not that it would take 30 years to spend it.

    11. Re:Oh no by russotto · · Score: 1

      The solution is inflation? Scuse me but wtf are you smoking? Inflation screws everyone. Especially the poor and working poor.

      Just about everything screws the poor the most. Even when you set out to screw the rich, the poor take it on the chin. The very last issue of the New York Times will read "World to End At Midnight. Poor and Minorities hardest hit."

    12. Re:Oh no by tacokill · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Yes but inflation is different. The upper classes own assets. Asset values can move up and down during inflation. ie: see gold.

      The poor hold money - dollars. Those only go one direction during inflation: down.

    13. Re:Oh no by DigiShaman · · Score: 1

      No, it screws the middle class who have been saving up money to buy a house, yet doesn't have enough established credit to take a large loan.

      The poor will just float it as minimum wage will be in constant change to keep up with inflation.

      --
      Life is not for the lazy.
    14. Re:Oh no by jcdr · · Score: 1

      Is there any solution to have more inflation affecting the pile of cash than the poor and working poor ?

    15. Re:Oh no by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Informative

      Good friend of mine had $30 M lined up to start production on light aircraft. Given the tax the rich election, thats not happening. I cant blame the investor, but its 80 jobs that didnt happen due to economic (un)certainty.

    16. Re:Oh no by hey! · · Score: 5, Insightful

      And the words "fiscal cliff" has nothing to do with this?

      The problem is that they're expecting a renewed recession when taxes go up and government spending goes down. The government will be taking more money out of the economy and putting less into it.

      Anybody as freaked out by current government borrowing as you describe is simply being hysterical. Sure the deficit at a historical high in absolute terms, but its nowhere near a historical high as percent of GDP. On top of that the government is currently borrowing money at or below the rate of inflation. It'd be insane not to borrow when people are in effect *paying* us to hold onto it for them. Check out the recent ten year treasury rate and compare it to inflation.

      No business would worry about borrowing money at an interest rate below what it can earn by holding onto the cash it already has. That's why *every* large business borrows money, even when it's profitable. It's counter-intuitive if you think of business and government budgeting like they were normal household budgeting, but business and governments aren't like typical private households. Even wealthy *individuals* borrow money when the interest rates are favorable. I once had a wealthy young trust fund kid working for me who borrowed money from the bank to buy a yacht. It made no sense for him to liquidate his investments when those investments earned more than the bank's interest rate.

      There's a time to worry about government borrowing, and that's in a full economy where dollars in the private sector are creating jobs like crazy. Nobody seems to worry about austerity then, when interest rates are high, but they should. But when interest rates are low, suddenly people freak out about borrowing money. It's hysterical fear, that's all.

      --
      Post may contain irony: discontinue use if experiencing mood swings, nausea or elevated blood pressure.
    17. Re:Oh no by fustakrakich · · Score: 2

      He won't be spending it. The 'good stewards' will make it all vanish, and blame it on 'the economy'. They're taking the Lincoln Savings and Loan/BCCI Show on the road. It has been happening right under our noses, but the blinders are on tight.

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    18. Re:Oh no by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      Actually, no. Working poor living paycheck-to-paycheck don't have significant savings that can be devalued by the inflation. The most affected are rich rent-seekers.

    19. Re:Oh no by tukang · · Score: 5, Insightful

      With debt being the exception. If I owe you a dollar, the debt is an asset to you but a liability to me. Inflation reduces the purchasing power of the dollar I have to pay you back with, so it benefits the borrower. Likewise anyone with a mortgage, student loan, auto loan stands to benefit from inflation.

      The question is who holds more debt? Is it the poor or the rich? And the answer isn't clear to me

    20. Re:Oh no by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      Not if you raise the minimum wage.

      (hahahahHaaHahHAHHAHAHahhaha)

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
    21. Re:Oh no by ranton · · Score: 3, Insightful

      The poor hold money - dollars. Those only go one direction during inflation: down.

      But the poor don't hold dollars. They don't hold much of anything of value. They may own a house (that generally increases in value during inflation) and are promised social security benefits (where payments increase based on inflation). I don't see how the poor are punished almost at all by inflation. In fact it seems to help them.

      Stagflation is worse, of course, but that isn't what anyone in this thread has been talking about.

      --
      -- All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing. -- Edmund Burke
    22. Re:Oh no by Z34107 · · Score: 1

      Believe it or not, lenders aren't completely ignorant of inflation; it's built into the interest rate they offer. If they need 2% to cover their costs and expect 3% inflation, they'll lend money at 5%.

      Yes, you can go, "Haha! Jokes on you! You thought there'd be THREE percent inflation, but I'll print money until there's SIX!" After you've finished ruining all those plebeians with bourgeois "savings accounts," you'll simply find future loans harder to get, and at higher rates.

      --
      DATABASE WOW WOW
    23. Re:Oh no by Alex+Belits · · Score: 1

      They have paychecks, that greedy employers don't increase to track inflation.

      --
      Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
    24. Re:Oh no by artor3 · · Score: 1, Insightful

      The poor don't hold dollars. They hold negative dollars, in the form of debts exceeding their assets. Inflation still hurts them, since prices rise faster than wages and when you're living hand to mouth, you can't afford to have your wages lag price increases. But that's only a problem if inflation is really high, like it was back under Carter. A bit of inflation is a quite nice way to push the wealthy to invest without hurting the poor.

    25. Re:Oh no by thoth · · Score: 2, Insightful

      And you in turn seem to be a vacuous moron repeating the tired conservative talking points they've used for about 50 years.
      Meanwhile, in the fact-based universe, there isn't any evidence that raising taxes will tank the economy. Economic growth is strongest under Democratic presidents and their policies, and that's been true since FDR. The CBO recently studied the numbers and concluded there is no evidence that lowering taxes spurs the economy. What did the GOP do in response? Learn? Hell no, they suppressed the report.
      That quote about trying to teach a dog difference equations? That's actually what it is like to reason with conservatives. They're simply too stupid to change. They don't respond to reason. Conservative economic theory has more in common with religion than anything else - entire chunks of it are simply taken on faith despite having no existing proof in the real world. Whenever something fails, the answer is the No True Scotsman explanation.

    26. Re:Oh no by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

      Minimum wages, in particular, don't keep up with inflation. The poor get assraped, the rich do very well on hedges.

    27. Re:Oh no by Cyberax · · Score: 3, Informative

      You can't have a stable inflation without increasing paychecks. Now, it's another the question if paychecks increase fast enough.

      I've actually lived through a hyperinflation (Russia in the early 90-s) with peak inflation about 1000% a year. Salaries were rising pretty much in sync with the inflation.

    28. Re:Oh no by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 5, Interesting

      ^ This

      Want to see a bank freak the hell out? Say the word deflation.

      Notice the Fed keeps inflation at a positive rate... When in the past 3-4 years it should have been negative. They instead pushed the peddle to the floor on inflation. Food/energy prices have nearly doubled. Yet wages have stagnated. Yet both of those are not counted in inflation yet are at the root of all goods sold in our country. It is because of the huge amount of debt the US gov has taken on. They want to erode that debt using inflation. But it can not be perceived as too high or you stall out investments.

      Most 'rich' hold a significant amount of debt. It is how they finance huge projects with little risk to their own real assets (stock, bonds, land, metals, companies). They win by a landslide in how much they hold. For example Donald Trump. May look like an idiot (a persona I think he is grooming) but is a rather shrewd guy who has many huge loans out there. Has declared bankruptcy many times. To get creditors off his back. Yet he is still very rich...

      Inflation is very real (and decently high at this point). My parents bought a house in 1970 for about 30k. That same house is now 'worth' 130k. My dads house payment was 130 bucks a month. Same payment today would be just shy of 800 a month.

      Take a couple of macro classes and you will see how amazing 'leveraged' the whole world is.

    29. Re:Oh no by scamper_22 · · Score: 1

      The better question is what kind of society do you think it produced when borrowing is encouraged and being responsible with balancing your wants with what you earn and the risk you are willing to take is actively discouraged.

      Inflation benefits the rich as much the poor and the middle class.

      You can be darn sure the rich will use the government inflation to get risk free investments.
      There's also a huge class of rich people who make their living off of people borrowing.

      Imagine a world where everyone owns their own home, mortgage free. Great for the people... not so great for the banks...

    30. Re:Oh no by poetmatt · · Score: 1

      The ignorance is actually in blaming the economy in the first place. VC investments are not down due exclusively due to fiscal uncertainty.

      VC's will happily invest if they don't become at risk due to patent trolling. Which at the moment is at an alltime high, along with laws that are explicitly hostile to VC's. What do you expect? VC's are not like the average citizen - they can read the hostility tea leaves sewn by the government.

    31. Re:Oh no by metlin · · Score: 1

      The question is who holds more debt? Is it the poor or the rich? And the answer isn't clear to me

      China.

    32. Re:Oh no by metlin · · Score: 1

      Remember, there are also inflation protected securities out there, such as TIPS bonds. That's a different ballgame altogether.

    33. Re:Oh no by drsmithy · · Score: 3, Insightful

      I don't see how the poor are punished almost at all by inflation. In fact it seems to help them.

      Low-end - heck, even most mid-range - wages rarely rise as much or as quickly as inflation.

      The poor are punished more because they put the majority of their income towards survival, which increase in price (much) faster than their income. The middle classes can at least absorb price increases out of their discretionary expenses so they don't end up starving in the street.

    34. Re:Oh no by kenorland · · Score: 1

      Steady-state inflation is really irrelevant because the markets just incorporate it into contracts and interest. The only thing that makes a difference is if you borrow in a low-inflation regime and switch to a high-inflation regime, but that's a one time deal.

      You are right that people with tons of money are manipulating government, but not so much through inflation, and more through simple rent seeking. And Obama has been even more eager to please these people than Bush.

    35. Re:Oh no by Kohath · · Score: 1

      Also known as stealing from your creditors. Guess what? Creditors don't like losing their money, so when you try to steal it, they stop loaning you money. Since the US is writing benefit checks for about $1 Trillion more than we take in every year, pissed off creditors means benefit recipients won't be seeing their monthly checks any more.

      Congrats on your cunning plan though.

    36. Re:Oh no by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Who's going to pay for your prisons to put all the poor people in when the poor are all in prison, the middle class is poor, and the rich aren't taxed?

    37. Re:Oh no by onix · · Score: 2

      In a society with safety nets, both the poor and rich get something for free, handouts and bailouts. The middle class pays and suffers. Too bad that middle class is eroding.

    38. Re:Oh no by onix · · Score: 1

      AC has more wisdom in his tiny little pinky fingernail than you BS have gained in your meager lifetime of experience. If we limit to just VC's, remarkably VC's have done no better than the stock market since they proliferated and mushroomed in the early '90s. VC's feed the hopes of the greedy few investors, for hope and greed spring eternal and have nothing to do with providing value to society. And to think they want exit in 2 years after seeding a company after taking over more than 75% of its equity. What worthwhile venture in real-world do you think provides value in that manner?

    39. Re:Oh no by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Yes, all the Democratic presidents were horrible. Sadly, the Republicans ones were worse. Nixon gave us the EPA, CPSC (see buckyballs), and opened trade with China. Reagan gave us the largest percentage increase in the debt (triple) in recent history, that and he committed treason a few times. Iran contra scandle. Selling WMDs to Saddam Hussein. Training Osama bin Laden. Just the little things that didn't blow up later. Ford pardoned Nixon. The Bush's were, well, Bush's.

    40. Re:Oh no by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      And the words "fiscal cliff" has nothing to do with this?

      It's a scare phrase brought to you by the people that coined "death taxes" and "death panels". They figured out that if you lie about it long enough, people believe the lie, especially if you convince them that the reason everyone else calls them an ignorant fool is because the detractors are the ones that are deluded/stupid, and it's all a huge conspiracy against them.

    41. Re:Oh no by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Yeah, the "I would have"s are coming out of the woodwork.

    42. Re:Oh no by Alex+Belits · · Score: 1

      Yeah, but in early 90's most of the jobs were still in public sector, where at least some people still tried to play by the rules. Late 90's, on the other hand...

      --
      Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
    43. Re:Oh no by kcbrown · · Score: 2

      Anybody as freaked out by current government borrowing as you describe is simply being hysterical. Sure the deficit at a historical high in absolute terms, but its nowhere near a historical high as percent of GDP.

      While that's true, it's highly misleading. The only time the deficit was higher than it is now was during World War 2 and its immediate aftermath. The current deficit as a percentage of GDP is now even higher than it was during the Great Depression: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Publicly_Held_Federal_Debt_1790-2009.png

      Remember that government debt is actually money that is borrowed by the government from the private sector and spent on government expenses, which means that, aside from that which is borrowed from the federal reserve system, it is money that could otherwise be invested in private business ventures. In the case of World War 2, there was good reason for such a high deficit: we were fighting a war of global proportions and diverting the majority of the country's resources towards it. There is no such excuse today. The deficit we have today exists solely because the government is too large and is overspending (on the wrong things, no less -- it would be one thing if it were spending most of that on infrastructure improvements that would benefit the country in the future, but instead it is squandering it on things that yield no significant return on the investment).

      --
      Use 'slashdot stuff' in the subject line in any email you send me if you want to get past the spam filter.
    44. Re:Oh no by kubajz · · Score: 2

      The poor hold money - dollars. Those only go one direction during inflation: down.

      Not necessarily true. Many poor hold debt, not money. With inflation, their interest and principal payments stay constant, making their real debt lower.

    45. Re:Oh no by beelsebob · · Score: 1

      Uhh no, inflation screws only people who have savings. It helps people who have debt, as that debt is worth progressively less.

    46. Re:Oh no by beelsebob · · Score: 1

      Wrong – the poor hold *debt*. That goes down too during inflation, helping them.

    47. Re:Oh no by beelsebob · · Score: 1

      Low-end - heck, even most mid-range - wages rarely rise as much or as quickly as inflation.

      In fact, low-end and mid range wage rises are exactly what drives inflation. Those wage rises cause the wage bills to be higher, and hence the prices required to make a profit to be higher. They are also the cause of the poor being able to afford the new higher prices, and hence buy just as much stuff.

    48. Re:Oh no by beelsebob · · Score: 1

      If the greedy employers didn't increase the wages to track inflation, then inflation wouldn't happen, as no one could afford the higher priced goods. The reason inflation happens is exactly because wages *do* track with inflation on average.

    49. Re:Oh no by Serious+Callers+Only · · Score: 3, Insightful

      That's the problem: you always want to spend other people's money, except, there's nothing to make people create wealth (start businesses, invest in startups and infrastructure, etc) to tax, and eventually, as Thatcher said, you run out of other people's money.

      There is such a thing as society, and it paid for your roads, your schools, your prisons, your police force, your fire service, and it subsidises your hospitals, your water mains, your gas supplies, your reliable electricity supplies and the very fabric of civilisation you take for granted to start your business. Society is funded through taxes, and gives back in services and support (i.e. not in money) - it's an exchange of some income for the privileges living in a civilised country give you. Think on that next time you view yourself as a wealth creator and everyone working for the government as parasites.

    50. Re:Oh no by tgd · · Score: 1

      Yes but inflation is different. The upper classes own assets. Asset values can move up and down during inflation. ie: see gold.

      The poor hold money - dollars. Those only go one direction during inflation: down.

      So does their debt. Net-net, the "poor" likely come out ahead in that. Savings rates are VERY low as compared to debt.

      Inflation also helps the national debt. The easiest way to cut the national debt in half is to devalue the dollar by half. Companies that hoard cash will be hurt, but everyone else will have their stock rise (because its based on their production and physical assets), the cost of debt payments goes down, the impact of all the mortgages that are underwater goes down.

      The people who are hurt (other than the suckers who loaned money to the US) are predominantly the people who are keeping resources out of the market by holding onto cash instead of using it.

    51. Re:Oh no by Beyond_GoodandEvil · · Score: 1

      Simple solution: Inflation. Want to sit on a pile of cash? Fine. It won't be worth much come next year. Greece and Spain (and the US?) are too deep in debt? No problem. Pay your (fixed) obligations with tomorrow's devalued currency.
      Wow, Kosbots who failed econ 101 and history running rampant(the above was rated as +5 insightful as I write this). If you think inflation is so awesome, go ask the Germans how awesome high inflation is, or anybody who lived in South America during the 80s how great it is to have inflation.

      --
      I laughed at the weak who considered themselves good because they lacked claws.
    52. Re:Oh no by hibiki_r · · Score: 1

      Yes, there's been a lot of inflation during the Reagan years. That's where most of your parent's house appreciated the most. Inflation today is not high at all. If you really think it'll skyrocket, you can make a ton of money on the market like that.

      It's not just the banks that fear deflation: It's pretty horrible for everyone. If you have debt, deflation means you probably won't be able to afford paying it. If you have cash, it means that keeping it in a safe becomes a valid investment strategy: Great for your local businesses, since it won't be spent. If it's under a mattress, it might as well not be M1, so we get more deflation, for the same reason that oil markets would not change if I found 5 trillion barrels of oil and I promised to never sell them or use them.

      Macro classes uh? It sounds as if you slept through yours.

    53. Re:Oh no by AK+Marc · · Score: 1

      Every single thing you've listed (aside from possibly the POTUS pardons) is thanks to Progressives in both parties and Progressive policies carried out by both parties.

      Wait, it's not the liberals anymore, it's the progressives? And when a Democrat does it, it's proof of liberal/progressive failure, and when a Republican does the exact same thing, it's still a liberal/progressive failure, with "no true Scotsman" thrown in where necessary to excuse horrible behavior of your preferred party?

      Then it's going to be a short period of rapid hyper-inflation followed almost immediately by economic collapse, which will in turn trigger riots, starvation, and widespread suffering.
      You want to see the US future if it remains (and at this late sage, maybe even if it changes radically right now) on it's current path?
      Look to Greece.

      There's no economic collapse in Greece, just an economic pause. The government is still working, taxing, spending, borrowing. There are a few protests, but not widespread starvation and suffering. But that's partially because the EU is holding on. If the US got as bad, do you think the world would hold on as well?

      Though I predicted the economic crisis 10 years ago, and moved out of the US in anticipation of what people are pretending now is somehow related to Obama, when my predictions pre-dated him by more than 4 years and are still (unfortunately) on track. No president will be the one to lose a war. That's why Eisenhower got us involved in Vietnam and put troops on the ground (yes, I keep getting corrected on that, but the first US troops sent to Vietnam were under Eisenhower, and the first US casualties were under him as well, even if the revisionists try to put it on JFK or LBJ, when the body bags were coming back at numbers approaching 1/10th automobile fatalities), and after that course was started, it took a president who was being impeached to make the call to pull out troops. Nixon's career was dead at that point, so he could make the obvious choice that nobody wanted to make because it was too hard for a politician to make. The same is happening now with the debt. Whichever party blinks will be seen as the Republicans were in the South after the Civil War. All pain and suffering from the Civil War was the fault of the Republicans because they were the party that started the war and were so hard under Reconstruction. Even over 100 years later, there are still echos of that in the south.

      So, who wants to be the president to do what Clinton did? Shut down the government by fighting Congress to guarantee a balanced budget? Now, do that and demand a 10% surplus, and start paying off the debt. Clinton got away with it because he got a good economy. Reagan also got a good economy and could have ended the debt, but he thought he won the cold war by outspending Russia, so he wasn't going to back down. The US's best case scenario now is Japan. Stagnant economy with debt more than twice the GDP, trying to pay it off, but no reasonable prospects to do so, waiting for the world economy to pick up to pull them out of it. The issue is that the US crash may take the world economy with it. So much of our economy is tied in with others.

    54. Re:Oh no by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Good friend of mine had $30 M lined up to start production on light aircraft. Given the tax the rich election, thats not happening. I cant blame the investor, but its 80 jobs that didnt happen due to economic (un)certainty.

      Oh well, he'll just have to spend it on hookers and blow instead.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    55. Re:Oh no by metrometro · · Score: 1

      Not when you're in debt. It's a subtle but system-wide benefit for those folks.

    56. Re:Oh no by amiga3D · · Score: 1

      I don't think the problem is paying taxes but the fact that their is no end to the appetite for money in DC. The more they get the more they spend and the more they demand. The rich like Roads and other forms of infrastructure, it actually improves their bottom line. It's the fact that over half the country doesn't pay taxes anymore and the solution seems to be to tax the ones that are producing even more to make up for those that don't produce. I don't mind my current tax load, I can afford it but I do resent any implication that I don't pay enough as more than half my income goes to some form of taxation. How much is enough? I've seen litterally dozens of Democratic politicos asked this question time after time. How much? What level of taxation do you consider enough? Fifty percent? Sixty? Seventy? Eighty? And not once, ever, did they answer the question. Of course we all know the answer don't we? There is no such thing as enough. The answer is MORE, MORE, MORE. They can't say it in the media because then even the stupid would start to understand.

    57. Re:Oh no by Fallout2man · · Score: 1

      And this is caused by? Say it with me everyone! A "Collective Action problem." Now, what sort of organization of bureaucratic structure has the sort of knowhow to fix those? It needs to have a central taxing authority to raise lots of money, and the ability to organize that money into a targeted set of services meant to funnel that money to our most disadvantaged through jobs and job-related programs (such as subsidized daycare) that will train them, enable them to take the jobs, pay fair wages, and therefore generally put disposable money into the hands of consumers, returning confidence to the entire market while also helping millions out of poverty? ...It starts with a G... ;p

    58. Re:Oh no by tacokill · · Score: 1

      No, debt is not the exception because it is repaid in whatever currency the contract requires. ie: if your debt is in dollars, then you pay back the debt in dollars.

      You are correct that "Inflation reduces the purchasing power of the dollar" but it also works on the other side too. ie: the debt is worth less to the person who is owed money.

    59. Re:Oh no by tukang · · Score: 1

      It is. Suppose you lend me a dollar and the purchasing power of a dollar is one apple. Now suppose that due to inflation the purchasing power of the dollar decreases to 1/10 of an apple and I pay you back the dollar. In effect you lent me one apple and I paid you back with 1/10 of an apple.

    60. Re:Oh no by drsmithy · · Score: 1

      Tax wealth at high rates and it leaves for friendlier areas, be they cities, counties, states, or nations.

      And that's why Northern Europe is an apocalyptic wasteland, right ?

    61. Re:Oh no by n7ytd · · Score: 1

      I don't see how the poor are punished almost at all by inflation. In fact it seems to help them.

      "Poor" people that have debts rather than assets seem to be helped by inflation, since hey, you're paying back yesterday's mortgage with tomorrow's cheaper dollars. In that light, savers are hurt and borrowers win.

      The problem is that wages lag inflation, so as prices go up and incomes do not, people with obligations rather than assets run into cash-flow problems pretty quickly.

    62. Re:Oh no by n7ytd · · Score: 1

      And you in turn seem to be a vacuous moron repeating the tired conservative talking points they've used for about 50 years.
      Meanwhile, in the fact-based universe, there isn't any evidence that raising taxes will tank the economy. Economic growth is strongest under Democratic presidents and their policies, and that's been true since FDR. The CBO recently studied the numbers and concluded there is no evidence that lowering taxes spurs the economy. What did the GOP do in response? Learn? Hell no, they suppressed the report.
      That quote about trying to teach a dog difference equations? That's actually what it is like to reason with conservatives. They're simply too stupid to change. They don't respond to reason. Conservative economic theory has more in common with religion than anything else - entire chunks of it are simply taken on faith despite having no existing proof in the real world. Whenever something fails, the answer is the No True Scotsman explanation.

      I really have no knowledge to discuss the accuracy of whether or not what you say about Democratic presidencies are true. I just want to point out that many Republicans don't care about that; for them, the issue is more or less government control. More government==BAD, even if the government is the right answer for the problem at hand.

    63. Re:Oh no by gonzonista · · Score: 1

      The poor are punished by inflation when basic survival increases exceed their wages. It is not a big deal to a millionaire if the price of food goes up by 50% but it is a big deal to a minimum wage worker. The millionaire will be impacted by a slower increase in net wealth while the minimum wage worker faces the choice of homelessness or starvation.

      --
      If absolute power corrupts absolutely, what does this say about renewable power?
    64. Re:Oh no by PPH · · Score: 1

      If business won't spend the money and there's a risk of it losing value, they can hand it back to the shareholders.

      and if they invest and win, which they judge unlikely at this point already,

      If business has no faith in it's ability to take risks and win, after handing the shareholders their money, they can turn off the lights and close the doors. The shareholders can find some other opportunity for investment.

      have politicians pluck down a much larger chunk of the profits,

      The claim that lower tax rates lead to higher growth has been debunked. At any rate, we tried it that way. It isn't working. Time to try something different.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
    65. Re:Oh no by BlueStrat · · Score: 1

      VC's feed the hopes of the greedy few investors, for hope and greed spring eternal and have nothing to do with providing value to society.

      Not quite.

      Here, let me help. No, no. I insist.

      VC's feed the hopes of the small inventors who have invested their life and their own wealth into their innovation, mom-and-pop businesses whose customers clamor for more locations, and many, many others that have a dream and a plan to provide something of value in order to better their, their families, and their communities lives, for hope and the desire to do well for oneself and one's family and community spring eternal and provide a huge value to society.

      See? Much more accurate now.

      No need to thank me. I'm a "giver" that way.

      Strat

      --
      Progressivism (aka US 'Liberalism'): Ideas so good they need a police/surveillance-state to enforce.
    66. Re:Oh no by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      Stagflation is an extreme case - it's not a "real" inflation. It was caused not simply by increase in monetary supply, but by real resource constraints. However, even stagflation lead to salary increases.

    67. Re:Oh no by NewYork · · Score: 1

      Impose fine on idle cash.

    68. Re:Oh no by Serious+Callers+Only · · Score: 1

      I'd say it should be under 50%, and completely agree that government in the US (and most countries) is far too large. But I'd disagree about where to cut with most republicans. I think the military budget should be slashed, the DHS dismantled, the public health system properly reformed to be single payer for drugs and services (and thus vastly cheaper), and the political system reformed to outlaw lobbying and corporate support for politicians above very small amounts (to bring them down to the level of individuals). I'd also close tax loopholes for taxing the rich, so that a the tax burden was distributed more evenly. Those measures would reduce your tax burden immensely. This is a hard problem, but so far *no* US politician has the guts to try to address it - there are too many vested interests.

      Re healthcare, it's perfectly fine to have private healthcare *for those who want it*, but the gov. is going to end up paying for lots of people in a civilised country, and you should be aware that it would be cheaper for everyone if that was done via a public system rather than the bizarre and inefficient system involving insurance companies that you have in the US at present - I'd abolish Obamacare, and replace it with true public hospitals - like the police service, this is something better and cheaper done by the state to provide baseline care. Those who can afford it can then pay for more advanced care themselves.

      I wouldn't get too hung up on how many people pay tax or not though, frankly that's a smokescreen of hate to avoid letting you think about the hard problems - the truth on taxation is this:

      EVERYONE, no matter how poor, pays some tax - sales tax, excise tax, fuel taxes, alcohol and tobacco taxes, etc
      The vast majority of tax take is always going to be flat taxation and income tax on the middle classes, because that's where all the easy money is
      The rich will always find ways to avoid most of income tax (curious that you don't find this a problem?), and thus avoid their share of the burden
      The poor will never be able to contribute very much, so your best bet is trying to lift them out of poverty, not tax them more

    69. Re:Oh no by Cyberax · · Score: 1

      I've studied that period in details. You're confusing several issues.
      1) Stagflation in part happened _because_ of wage controls. They forced employers to rise wages when there were no real reason for it. That caused a self-defeating loop, but wages indeed still rose more or less in sync with inflation.
      2) During stagflation economy growth was weak because of real resource constraints.
      3) By 80-s that constraints were gone and economy was growing robustly, even after correction for inflation.
      4) In this situation breaking a wage-inflation loop was a right decision and it was implemented flawlessly.
      Stagflation is not a refutation that a sustained high inflation requires wage increases. Rather it's a refutation that it's impossible to have inflation with weak growth.

    70. Re:Oh no by Eli+Gottlieb · · Score: 1

      Most actual poor, in fact 75% of the US population, are debtors. Inflation helps debtors.

    71. Re:Oh no by Eli+Gottlieb · · Score: 1

      Why should it disturb you? With only $250,000 after 30 years of work, you'll never afford to retire.

    72. Re:Oh no by Alex+Belits · · Score: 1

      I remember more than one hyper inflation, not only in USSR but also in Ukraine and Russia

      Those are the same process started with botched up introduction of private business at the end of 80's, and continuing after the dissolution of USSR in early 1992, an event with no significance in economic policy of either country.

      it didn't matter if you had money, the question was can you actually buy anything with it? In USSR around late eighties and then in Ukraine in the early nineties you had to have 'coupons' and cash to buy anything, and this didn't help either. People just didn't sell, everything went to the black markets.

      That was caused by the government creating a huge number of rent-seeking opportunities for private resellers (operating within "market" pricing and exchanging "nalichnye", consumer-accessible cash as the currency) that latch onto public production of goods (that operated within fixed prices system and largely in separate market with its own internal currency and price structure). Resellers hoarded the products in hope for cornering the market and dictating higher prices, public retail channels dried up despite production running full steam. If someone wanted to destroy the existing infrastructure of the public sector, be it physical or organizational types of it, there probably would be no method more efficient than those decisions, and many have a suspicion that it was the original goal to begin with.

      --
      Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
    73. Re:Oh no by Alex+Belits · · Score: 1

      If the greedy employers didn't increase the wages to track inflation, then inflation wouldn't happen, as no one could afford the higher priced goods. The reason inflation happens is exactly because wages *do* track with inflation on average.

      Why? For inflation to sustain itself, it's sufficient that total income across the whole population increases faster than the total amount of goods produced, it does not matter if large percentage of population is left out, and can no longer sustain their former levels of consumption.

      --
      Contrary to the popular belief, there indeed is no God.
    74. Re:Oh no by tacokill · · Score: 1

      you forgot to add in interest -- which (in theory) compensates me for the time value of money and corresponding inflation. What you describe is exactly why people typically don't lend money with 0% interest rates.

  2. Remarkably verbose article by vlm · · Score: 2

    Remarkably verbose article. Somebody's getting paid by the word... The TLDR is: "much like the rest of the economy, the velocity of money is on the decline in the VC/startup field".

    --
    "Science flies us to the moon. Religion flies us into buildings." - Victor Stenger
  3. Alternate theory: by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Much of the VC activity(and startup acquisition by larger outfits) in the valley has been based on absurd speculative bullshit only slightly less risible than pets.com. Now, with the supply of bigger suckers on which to unload your worthless stock in some 'disruptive' Web2.0/mobile/social/bullshit apparently drying up a bit, non-idiots are staying away.

    Good heavens, whatever shall we do?

    1. Re:Alternate theory: by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It is unlikely that the supply of 'bigger suckers' is drying up, right now, at this moment 40,000 years since we evolved.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    2. Re:Alternate theory: by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It would probably be fairer to say that they are moving somewhere else, rather than drying up entirely.

      From TFA ""Limited partners are getting fatigued from giving money to venture capital and getting back less than they give," said Tracy Lefteroff, global managing partner of the venture capital practice at PWC."

      and

      "Joe Dear, CalPERS' chief investment officer, told Reuters: "Venture has been the most disappointing asset class over the past 10 years as far as returns. ""

      Suckers do sometimes catch on, eventually. This is unlikely to cure them in an absolute sense; but it makes it more likely that they will move to being suckers about some other flavor of asset.

      The other thing that really gives me the 'yeah, it's a bubble that's starting to pop, go cry." feeling is the assertion that "So what's wrong with the VC industry? The problems are many and complex. But they can be boiled down to this: Not enough exits.".

      You have an industry that is basically the tech-jockey equivalent of flipping houses with borrowed money. During the expansion phase of a bubble, that can work out rather well. At other times, you find yourself facing the tougher challenge of "actually producing houses people want to live in" and "living on the margins of a renovation contractor; because that's actually the only value you are adding".

      The VC guys apparently aren't willing(or perhaps aren't capable) to build companies that actually make money, and earn their returns that way, and they apparently aren't capable of building companies attractive enough that firms with cash on hand would rather buy them out than just do it in house or do without. They've run out of suckers and apparently aren't good enough to cater to customers...

    3. Re:Alternate theory: by Trepidity · · Score: 1

      Zynga's disastrous IPO certainly hasn't helped the tech-IPO market's prospects. Don't think you can blame that one on either Congress or Obama, either.

    4. Re:Alternate theory: by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 1

      And Facebook was a smashing success, that certainly brightened the mood...

    5. Re:Alternate theory: by phantomfive · · Score: 1
      I think you might have a point when you say this:

      The other thing that really gives me the 'yeah, it's a bubble that's starting to pop, go cry." feeling is the assertion that "So what's wrong with the VC industry? The problems are many and complex. But they can be boiled down to this: Not enough exits.".

      But I think you might go too far in your assertion that startups are useless (it sounds like are asserting that, anyway). Certainly the ones you find on "Start-Ups: Silicon Valley" are useless, but there are a lot of them that are good.

      One thing's for sure though, this story has nothing to do with the 'fiscal cliff.'

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    6. Re:Alternate theory: by fuzzyfuzzyfungus · · Score: 2

      I didn't intend to assert that startups are useless; just that if a VC can't make money by funding startups without a ready supply of 'exits', this suggests that the VC is doing a poor job of picking and cultivating startups that are either worth buying or capable of becoming profitable in their own right.

      In theory, part of the value-add that a VC, rather than an ordinary loan, provides is some combination of expert judgement(so a good VC should theoretically be backing a better-than-average set of startups) and management/strategy/etc. guidance(so a startup with a good VC should theoretically be better off than an equivalent startup with a generic loan). If a VC can only perform well when the market is loaded with 'exits', and even lousy startups are managing to IPO or get sold, that suggests that they aren't actually any good at picking or building good startups.

      (The other thing that makes me doubt the 'regulatory uncertainty' theory is this consideration: If I am a company sitting on a big pile of cash, and there is the possibility that inflation or heavier taxation might strike, wouldn't I be rushing to turn my dollars(which are likely to be devalued or easy prey for the tax man) into products and patents and similar things that are less likely to suffer inflation and are much easier to value creatively when the IRS comes calling?)

    7. Re:Alternate theory: by phantomfive · · Score: 2

      I didn't intend to assert that startups are useless; just that if a VC can't make money by funding startups without a ready supply of 'exits', this suggests that the VC is doing a poor job of picking and cultivating startups that are either worth buying or capable of becoming profitable in their own right.

      Good point.

      If I am a company sitting on a big pile of cash, and there is the possibility that inflation or heavier taxation might strike, wouldn't I be rushing to turn my dollars(which are likely to be devalued or easy prey for the tax man) into products and patents and similar things that are less likely to suffer inflation and are much easier to value creatively when the IRS comes calling?

      Taxes don't normally come on piles of cash........I think what they are really worried about is that the inflation or taxation will cause a recession. I was working with a startup in 2008 that had just hit profitability, and when the recession hit, all their customers dried up and the company closed. That's what you want to avoid.

      For larger companies it's a different issue. Normally, for maximum value, a company will borrow money to fund normal operations, because it increases the return they can get on resources. That worked fine until the crash, when it became impossible to borrow enough money in the short term. A lot of companies were perfectly solvent, but they were having trouble making payroll until their customers paid them.

      So now a lot of companies are keeping enough cash around to keep running, in case credit dries up again.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    8. Re:Alternate theory: by SourceFrog · · Score: 2

      Two points: One, it's the end of the second tech bubble (in spite of those who have attempted to assure otherwise, we have had a tech bubble), and two, those 'piles of cash' corporations are supposedly 'sitting on' are priced in post-fiscal-cliff dollars, they aren't as much as they seem.

      --
      My other UID is three digits.
    9. Re:Alternate theory: by jo42 · · Score: 1

      Anyone with less than half a brain would have not bought Zynga or Facebook in the first place...

    10. Re:Alternate theory: by tlhIngan · · Score: 1

      Now, with the supply of bigger suckers on which to unload your worthless stock in some 'disruptive' Web2.0/mobile/social/bullshit apparently drying up a bit, non-idiots are staying away.

      Or more like the market's matured enough that there's less money to be made.

      Why invest in silicon valley companies who can make only 5x what you put in, when you can invest in a half-dozen mobile app developers and get 10x the money?

      The market's simply moved on.

      Hell, VCs are probably trolling Kickstarter and all that looking for something that'll bit big. Probably walk up to the ones that are wildly successful at funding, and "helping out".

    11. Re:Alternate theory: by tgd · · Score: 1

      Much of the VC activity(and startup acquisition by larger outfits) in the valley has been based on absurd speculative bullshit only slightly less risible than pets.com. Now, with the supply of bigger suckers on which to unload your worthless stock in some 'disruptive' Web2.0/mobile/social/bullshit apparently drying up a bit, non-idiots are staying away.

      Good heavens, whatever shall we do?

      A third theory:

      The global economy is, in essence, a pyramid scheme. Its based on the requirement of unbounded, infinite growth, which we know isn't the case. It looks non-zero-sum because of the size of it, but with resources and labor limited, even people in crushing poverty in the west are only that rich because of the real poor's share of labor and resources.

      And like any pyramid scheme, the faster money moves through it, the faster you reach the point where its no longer supportable. So perhaps the massive increase in wealth (and I'm not talking 1%er wealth, I'm talking the vastly larger pool of resources represented globally by the growing middle class) has burned through enough of the pyramid that things are starting to fall apart.

    12. Re:Alternate theory: by Fallout2man · · Score: 1

      Regulatory Uncertainty is B.S. and it's just a line the G.O.P. trots out to justify why we should let industrial manufacturers poison us with Mercury. The uncertainty companies have right now is Demand uncertainty. Because of the recession and 30 years of Middle class wage stagnation there are now fewer dollars of disposable income for companies to fight over and that means a shrinking market.

      Sitting on those record piles of cash makes sense when you can't even be sure (If you know you have a popular product) that your market demographic can even afford it since they're barely able to pay off their home loan or whatever else. The tax uncertainty is again, a stupid rationalization. The G.O.P. loves to give these entitled plutocratic children the ability to disguise their "Waaaah! I want to live in Civil society without ever having to pay for it! I swear if you don't lower my taxes I'm going to lay off hundreds of workers! You think I'm joking?!" blackmail a legitimate face.

      The real problem is we have a liquidity trap. There's plenty of capital but the capital is all on the wrong side of the market, hoarded in corporate coffers and wealthy banks. The government in this case is the only entity that can take that money via taxes and return it to the bottom of the economy through infrastructure investments, jobs programs, and other social services which both puts money back into consumers hands (ending the recession) and also possibly opening up new markets through the investment in infrastructure.

      Whenever someone blames "uncertainty" they're just spinning a yarn about why they feel it's a moral abomination that they should have their income taxed to fund civil society.

  4. Plenty of mergers just not a lot of prime targets by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Starwars was a merger long over due.
    Netflix looks weak.
    AMD is in the wings.
    Just because google, apple, and microsoft aren't buying every month on doesnt mean a whole lot of fiscal uncertainty.
    It just means there isn't a real motivation to swoop in before your competitors beat you to the punch.
    It's good to take a break and take a breath in between spending 100 mil.
    Seriously if you need a idea to throw your money at.. how about flying cars that drive themselves with solar energy that let me connect with my friends and tweet our international pub crawls while giving us discounts on our next bar in queue.
    BTW how's groupons stock doing. Oh right it's only down 85% for the year.

  5. well yeah.... by GrimShady · · Score: 1

    I can not blame them. I would not consider investing until this economic shitstorm is sorted out. If you have money and you truly think things are going to get real crappy soon you would wait also.

    You have better odds in vegas than with a random startup right now....

    1. Re:well yeah.... by fustakrakich · · Score: 1

      You have better odds in vegas...

      You misspelled Wall Street, the cause of your economic 'shitstorm'.

      --
      “He’s not deformed, he’s just drunk!”
    2. Re:well yeah.... by GrimShady · · Score: 1

      The reason 'why' things are bad does not matter to the people funding startups.... it really doesnt matter. Let me put it this way... I don't care if the hurricane and flooding is natural or was caused by global warming... I'm not going to build a house on the beach in florida.

      Its just a bad idea right now and I do not loan or invest when the odds are against me.

    3. Re:well yeah.... by onix · · Score: 1

      Exactly. And when you are driven to a 2 year exit, volatility (up or down) can be your friend. Heck, find investment strategies that short the economy in 2 year stretches, and you are back in the game.

  6. Re:Good. by amiga3D · · Score: 1

    Only if all your money is invested in gold. I'm moving my money in my 401K to the government securities fund so I wont make any return but at least I may not lose all of it.

  7. Re:Forget the fiscal cliff. by amiga3D · · Score: 1

    WW3? Iran? Heh, Whatever. War is good for investment, lots of money to be made. Unfortunately it's got to be paid for by the tax payers.

  8. Re:Good. by zieroh · · Score: 1

    Not trolling. Just expressing the opinion that vulture capital money does more harm than good in Silicon Valley.

    --
    People who say "sheeple" have about as much sophistication as an AOL user, and in fact are probably actually AOL users.
  9. Decline by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1, Funny

    you voted for it.

    1. Re:Decline by Impy+the+Impiuos+Imp · · Score: 2

      Funny, and troll both.

      Does anyone else find it interesting, though, that there are serious posts talking about government punishing businesses for failing to invest in a risky environment, to rescue politicians from bad times?

      How else to describe it?

      --
      (-1: Post disagrees with my already-settled worldview) is not a valid mod option.
  10. Uncertainty? by Fuzzums · · Score: 1

    With all the uncertainty they're facing with the economy and taxes??
    I don't get it. I was told there are two thing in life that are certain. Economy and taxes.
    Or at least something like that ;)

    --
    Privacy is terrorism.
  11. Re:Good. by amiga3D · · Score: 1

    Really? Someone told me that was all being paid back.

  12. Re:Good. by zieroh · · Score: 3, Insightful

    It's a great sign. VC money distorts reality in Silicon Valley. I've lived here for 20-odd years, and VC money is at the root of nearly every problem Silicon Valley has.

    --
    People who say "sheeple" have about as much sophistication as an AOL user, and in fact are probably actually AOL users.
  13. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Those piles of cash the corps are sitting on is the bailout money that was handed out by the government. We wouldn't want it to get in the wrong hands now, would we? We gotta keep the squeeze on to reduce expectations. You can't justify all the coming austerity measures if the economy is all flush with cash. Abundance is poison...

    Where are the '-1 outright lie' or '-1 willful ignorance' mods when you need them?

  14. You want certainty? by PPH · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Fine. We're certain that your tax rate will be going to 39.6% come January first and Greece won't be paying your bonds back.

    Feel better? Now get to work.

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
    1. Re:You want certainty? by gr8_phk · · Score: 1

      Fine. We're certain that your tax rate will be going to 39.6% come January first and Greece won't be paying your bonds back.

      And QE3 is going to devalue your cash. Where you gonna put that money?

    2. Re:You want certainty? by lowieken · · Score: 1

      I'd love to have my tax rate fall to 39.6%! Alas... here, it's more like 53.5%.

  15. Re:Forget the fiscal cliff. by zieroh · · Score: 1

    Citation needed. Provide one or shut the fuck up.

    --
    People who say "sheeple" have about as much sophistication as an AOL user, and in fact are probably actually AOL users.
  16. Bad businesses by devleopard · · Score: 4, Insightful

    Too little innovation, too many apps like "Mobile photo sharing - FOR CATS!"

    The funding game is dying, slowly. The future is in the 37 Signals and GitHubs of the world. (Both took funding I believe, but only after they were profitable : if the VC is how you keep the lights on, you're doing it wrong) Even more significant are the bootstrapped startups, the 1-4 person operations, that make great products that actually solve problems. (In other words, the anti-Instagram)

    --
    The best thing about a boolean is even if you are wrong, you are only off by a bit.
    1. Re:Bad businesses by onix · · Score: 1

      The only thing you have wrong is the definition of success. We as a society (or I should say those of good humanitarian nature) value things that deliver overall wealth to a populous. VC's value a 10X ROI in 2 years. It's important to keep that distinction clear.

    2. Re:Bad businesses by tatman · · Score: 1

      Agreed. VCs set themselves up for this. They wanted massive returns. Not just 10% a year kind of returns. 100%+ This market reminds me a bit of late 70s and early 80s when businesses started in basements and garages and becomes something big from having a viable product and business model. Unfortunately for me.... (see sig)

      --
      I've always said English was my second language. Had Romeo and Juliet been written in C, I might have understood it.
  17. How hard is it to proofread a paragraph. by viper21 · · Score: 1

    Rather THAN. Seriously.

    1. Re:How hard is it to proofread a paragraph. by Nidi62 · · Score: 1

      Could be worse. I just read a CNN story about a Vietnam Medal of Honor winner (posthumous of course). They couldn't even spell Khe Sahn correctly (spelled it Que Son). And that is one of the most famous battles of that war.

      --
      The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
    2. Re:How hard is it to proofread a paragraph. by foniksonik · · Score: 1

      They followed the old adage "If it looks foreign spell it with a Q".

      --
      A fool throws a stone into a well and a thousand sages can not remove it.
    3. Re:How hard is it to proofread a paragraph. by Nidi62 · · Score: 1

      That's because my typing has actually gotten worse over the last few years (ever since I started college interestingly enough). Also, it's not my job.

      --
      The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for it to be pitted against a slightly greater evil
    4. Re:How hard is it to proofread a paragraph. by dubbreak · · Score: 1

      Maybe they are literally sitting on the money for a short while then giving it to start-ups. What to start a new tech business? Sure, but your money is going to smell like a rich guy's ass.

      Some people aren't down with that.. hence acceptance of VC being down.

      --
      "If you are going through hell, keep going." - Winston Churchill
    5. Re:How hard is it to proofread a paragraph. by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      That's because my typing has actually gotten worse over the last few years (ever since I started college interestingly enough). Also, it's not my job.

      That is not a valid excuse on a web forum where you have to preview your posts.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  18. they have tons of money and yet won't invest ? by etash · · Score: 2

    Cleary they have to be wrong. GOP says that people with money will always invest their cash thus creating more jobs.

  19. Who could have foreseen it? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Our government (President and most of Congress) are not willing to implement austerity. The debt increases by over a trillion per year, and that's the plan! That's what the actual Obama administration numbers say the future holds, an extra trillion in debt per year. (Based on their assumptions, that trillion will decline down slowly starting in three or four years, but it would take a tiny uptick in the interest rates to wipe out that assumed decline and make it go up.) The unfunded mandates in the Affordable Care Act (a/k/a "Obamacare") fall squarely on business, so lots of businesses are laying off people... the unfunded mandates are a step function, and lots of businesses are firing until they drop down a step or two, and they plan to freeze their headcount forever to avoid the additional financial burden. Dodd/Frank is causing havoc, Sarbanes/Oxley isn't helping any either. There hasn't been a budget in four years, the credit rating of the USA has been downgraded and the credit agencies are broadly hinting that they are about to do it again. Obama has signaled clearly that tax rates are going up soon, and he has the political power to make that stick. Obama is floating a "carbon tax" to make all energy use more expensive as well.

    In this environment, who could have foreseen a reluctance to take financial risks?

    There is a startup hiring near me, and they look interesting. Instead I am clinging to my less-exciting but stable job. It isn't just investors who are worried.

    1. Re:Who could have foreseen it? by headhot · · Score: 3, Informative

      Hows austerity working for England, or Europe in general?

      http://www.businessinsider.com/chart-of-the-day-us-vs-uk-growth-2012-4

    2. Re:Who could have foreseen it? by Billly+Gates · · Score: 1

      Ok.

      How is Greece doing? Austerity is a much better deal with 10% unemployment than 28% unemployment and sky high taxes. The US is heading into greece within a few years and if I were a betting man Obama himself will still be president when shit hits the fan if we do not do anything!

      Tough, you MUST PAY YOUR BILLS! The fiscal cliff is not good enough we need 10x fiscal cliffs just to break even! We need massive tax hikes, no healthcare except for the most elderly in medicare and we need to cut our military by 1/2 and do that for a good decade.

      Sorry, I highly doubt even if the economy fully recovered to the 1990s levels can we pay off this debt let alone break even in this spending.

    3. Re:Who could have foreseen it? by foniksonik · · Score: 1

      So how many jobs lost with Medicare cut? How many with military cut? Who's going to hire them?

      Have you factored those numbers in. It's not so simple when you realize that a huge amount of so called private industry is actually funded directly through government spending.

      --
      A fool throws a stone into a well and a thousand sages can not remove it.
    4. Re:Who could have foreseen it? by King_TJ · · Score: 2

      I hate these types of comparisons, personally, because I think they miss the bigger picture completely.

      Part of the U.S.'s whole problem right now is the desire to patch things back up, post financial crash, to quickly promise people "it's not SO bad" and "We can soon get on with business as usual again!" Meanwhile, the real problems haven't been corrected at all, and we're just setting ourselves up for another, even bigger, fall, down the road.

      The "recovery" we're supposedly having right now is pretty much artificial. The Fed pumps a bunch of money back into the banks who screwed up and mismanaged things.... Entire industries that screwed up to the point of going under (like GM) get bailed out to make things look good again, ASAP .... and massive amounts of government (AKA. taxpayer) money gets funneled to such things as TSA agents, Homeland Security staff, and workers hired for road improvement work for a few years.

      Before you know it, things are started to look a little bit better again. But it's kind of like a balloon with a bunch of small pinhole punctures in it. They just re-inflate it and say, "See... looks pretty good again now!" but they never patch all the holes.

      The bottom line is the fact that government (unlike private business) never does anything that generates a profit. All they can do is tax you or print money, devaluing the money you already possess. And as they keep doing both to blow the leaky balloon back up again, we're all going to suffer for it eventually.

      None of this is meant to be some sort of pitch that we needed a Republican like Ronney in office, mind you. I think for one thing, much of this damage has already been done and we're just going to start feeling the after-effects here in the next few years, regardless of who the President is. But further, I really don't think EITHER party will do what it takes to turn this problem around. The most likely scenario is a bunch of attempts to keep patching things and patching things until it all erodes away into a worthless currency.

    5. Re:Who could have foreseen it? by kenorland · · Score: 1

      So how many jobs lost with Medicare cut? How many with military cut? Who's going to hire them? Have you factored those numbers in. It's not so simple when you realize that a huge amount of so called private industry is actually funded directly through government spending.

      The majority of Americans used to work in agriculture. When agriculture became more efficient and these jobs disappeared, was the consequence massive unemployment? Of course not.

      Obviously, any changes have to be gradual to allow people to adapt. But if you phase in these changes over 5-10 years, these people will find other employment, employment that is more productive and is paid according to what they actually contribute to society.

    6. Re:Who could have foreseen it? by codepunk · · Score: 1

      Obama and the Democrats can raise taxes just as high as they like. What the sheeple that voted for them do not realize is that when they raise it 10% the middle class and poor will be paying that, not corporations and not the rich. You can play the raise the tax game all you want that gets immediately pushed into loss of work hours, layoffs, price increases, offshoring etc.

      This is really the case in a bad economy with already poor employment numbers and ample people willing to work anything that comes their way.

      --


      Got Code?
    7. Re:Who could have foreseen it? by Kohath · · Score: 1

      What's better? Please post a link to an alternative plan.

    8. Re:Who could have foreseen it? by Billly+Gates · · Score: 1

      We are getting to the point where we can't wait 5 or 10 years. We need them cut YESTERDAY.

      The problem is inflation right now. When you have the fed printing money to the banks it goes to investors to inflate oil prices, gold, housing, insurance, etc. We pay twice for it. Once in higher prices, twice for the taxes plus interest to pay for the rich people to rip us off. How is that sustainable.

      Why is the cost of a home an hour in either direction from DC $1 million? Because of government spending. Cut cut cut. It doesn't matter if it costs jobs as they are paid for by debt from China.

      When you pay back investors of government bonds here is what happens. They get a TON of extra capital. Where does it go? Back to the stock market and to the private sector in lines of credit for small business to hire and expand. When a business needs to make payroll they go to the bank and not use their profits. IT is ALWAYS lines of credit. The bank has a choice? Do they loan out the cash to corpA or use the capital to buy government bonds guaranteed by the US constitution? Hmmm, gee I would pick Uncle SAM. Small business owner ... screw you etc.

      Expansion will come as a result and as interest rates rise insurance companies can lower rates as they do not have shit returns on their capital and need to charge extra to make up as a result. This causes inflation.

    9. Re:Who could have foreseen it? by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      Sarbanes/Oxley isn't helping any either.

      Yeah, fuck it let's go back to the glory days of Enron. What real harm did they ever do anyway?

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    10. Re:Who could have foreseen it? by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      The majority of Americans used to work in agriculture. When agriculture became more efficient and these jobs disappeared, was the consequence massive unemployment? Of course not.

      Brilliant. So as long as there's another Industrial Revolution, everything's OK?

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    11. Re:Who could have foreseen it? by kenorland · · Score: 1

      We've been in the midst of an industrial revolution for a century, with constant everyday change. People today work as network engineers, software architects, GUI designers, game voice over actors, 3D designers, and in many other jobs that effectively didn't exist a few decades ago. And many of these jobs and businesses get created out of necessity by people who lose their old jobs and need to figure out new ways of making money. If a nation tries to protect its workers from this, it will fall behind as other nations take the new opportunities, create the new jobs, and out-compete it.

    12. Re:Who could have foreseen it? by Red+Flayer · · Score: 1

      When you pay back investors of government bonds here is what happens. They get a TON of extra capital. Where does it go? Back to the stock market and to the private sector in lines of credit for small business to hire and expand.

      It goes into inflation. Buying back bonds doesn't increase GDP, it simply increases the cash in circulation relative to GDP.

      Furthermore, with interest rates currently so low, and bond buyback serving to reduce yields, you end up with a situation where banks and other entities are even less likely to invest money in the economy at large.

      You have it backwards. Issuing government bonds is a counter to inflation; buying them back can cause inflation.

      --
      "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
    13. Re:Who could have foreseen it? by Eli+Gottlieb · · Score: 1

      Technically, government is capable of generating a profit. it just never captures the profit for itself. The profit instead becomes an externality, absorbed by society as a whole.

  20. Re:Good. by ExploHD · · Score: 2

    The going over the fiscal cliff and the hitting the debt ceiling are two separate things. We won't hit the debt ceiling until at least mid January...

  21. He said asia/canada by codegen · · Score: 5, Insightful

    He said Asia/canada not EU. It is true that taxes are higher than in the US. But the overal cost is lower. Before coming back to Academia, I was part of a startup. With the health care support we have in Canada, as well as other benefits, the lower loaded cost of an employee about makes up for the taxes. He also said undertainty. A higher tax rate isn't what kills it, as Warren Buffet has pointed out time and again. Its the endless bickering and inability to settle on a solution that kills it. If the GOP in the house is willing to meet Obama part way, then the situation will improve.

    --
    Atlas stands on the earth and carries the celestial sphere on his shoulders.
    1. Re:He said asia/canada by sjames · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Even the worst credible case would have taxes in the upper brackets lower than they were during some of the most prosperous times.

      Honestly it sounds more like a knee-jerk reaction to a Democrat being re-elected than it does to any specific policy problem.

    2. Re:He said asia/canada by Kell+Bengal · · Score: 1

      there are few sights that can beat watching a flock of pigs fly over the capitol building and getting shot down by a flight of F-22s.

      Like that will ever happen - they'll never work out the problems with the F-22s!

      --
      Scientists point out problems, engineers fix them
      altslashdot.org: The future of slashdot.
    3. Re:He said asia/canada by kenorland · · Score: 3, Insightful

      f the GOP in the house is willing to meet Obama part way, then the situation will improve.

      I don't see why. If the GOP meets Obama part way, Obama will just push the envelope even further, with carbon taxes and more economic tinkering. The problem is Obama's bad economic policies, a continuation of Bush's bad economic policies. No amount of compromise is going to fix that. And Romney wouldn't have been any better either. Our major presidential the last few times around have really sucked.

    4. Re:He said asia/canada by Mitreya · · Score: 5, Insightful

      I don't see why. If the GOP meets Obama part way, Obama will just push the envelope even further,

      And that, ladies and gentlemen, is the problem in a nutshell

      The position here is -- If GOP were to ever compromise, even a little bit, they would show weakness and embolden Obama. So the solution is, clearly, to block everything and let the country burn.

      One cannot negotiate when ANY compromise is considered an unacceptable sign of weakness. Can you come up with a reason why would Democrats just give up? It's not really a negotiation when one side is not willing to budge an inch, no matter what. The term for that is "throwing a tantrum"

    5. Re:He said asia/canada by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 1

      What, like that's not the case? The GOP shows weakness - that WON'T embolden Obama? His supporters would be calling for blood. True negotiation requires that both sides give up something. What do you do when the majority in power thinks you are a bunch of freakazoids and don't deserve to be treated like humans? How can anyone possibly "negotiate" with people such as Christians who are considered subhuman and not on the same level as rational, scientific people?

      --
      Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
    6. Re:He said asia/canada by Mitreya · · Score: 2

      Your view that doing nothing amounts to "letting the country burn" is itself a very left wing political view.

      We do not have a left wing in US. We have a moderate-right wing and a far-far-right wing.

      So from the point of view of his political opponents, stopping him at every turn isn't "letting the country burn", it is preventing legislation that would harm the country.

      Republicans did manage to block a bill that would fund jobs for veterans on the reasoning that we have no money. Unless these Republicans voted against the wars (very few!), that makes them hypocritical to the extreme.

      Obama can spend less, regulate less, withdraw the military, stop engaging in wars or drone strikes, and stop violating civil liberties all on his own without any help from Congress.

      Congress is supposed to regulate war, actually. The only reason Obama goes on with wars/drone strikes is because Congress is staying out of it - uniformly so on both R-side and D-side.
      Also, Obama cannot spend or regulate or even violate civil liberties -- just about every one of those things (except for "kill list") had passed through Congress.

      If Obama wants to negotiate over this, he needs to bring something to the table that his political opponents want, and there is very little that he can offer.

      Republicans _could_ come up with something as part of the negotiation. They must want something (and they should be willing to give something in return). If their offer is "here's what we want to do and there is no room for compromise", why should Democrats bargain with them? Would you?

    7. Re:He said asia/canada by kenorland · · Score: 1

      We do not have a left wing in US. We have a moderate-right wing and a far-far-right wing.

      That's a common belief but false. On many issues, US Democrats are as left wing as many European social democratic parties.

      Congress is supposed to regulate war, actually. The only reason Obama goes on with wars/drone strikes is because Congress is staying out of it - uniformly so on both R-side and D-side.

      If Congress is "staying out of it", then he has no authority to do it. The fact that Congress isn't doing anything about it doesn't grant him implicit authority to do so.

      Also, Obama cannot spend or regulate or even violate civil liberties -- just about every one of those things (except for "kill list") had passed through Congress.

      Congress has given him the authority to do so to some degree; Obama is under no obligation to use that authority. He can spend less, regulate less, and intrude into people's personal lives less if he so chooses. And in some of these areas, he is exceeding his authority, but Congress is not in a mood to hold him responsible for it, because that's hard.

      They must want something (and they should be willing to give something in return). If their offer is "here's what we want to do and there is no room for compromise", why should Democrats bargain with them? Would you?

      Republicans and independents want less federal government and lower federal taxes. All of Obama's proposals amount to higher taxes and more government. So, the best thing for his opponents to do is to stall as much as possible because that achieves what they want. If Obama wants to get some law passed, he has to give up something else of greater value. Want to pass a carbon tax? Repeal Obamacare. Want to raise taxes? Make big cuts in entitlements. That's the kind of deals he can get. Other "deals" are simply not interesting to his political opponents, and why should they be?

    8. Re:He said asia/canada by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      We do not have a left wing in US. We have a moderate-right wing and a far-far-right wing.

      That's a common belief but false. On many issues, US Democrats are as left wing as many European social democratic parties.

      But European social democratic parties are not left wing, except by US standards. Communist and socialist and (theoretically) anarchist parties are left wing.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    9. Re:He said asia/canada by kenorland · · Score: 1

      But European social democratic parties are not left wing, except by US standards. Communist and socialist and (theoretically) anarchist parties are left wing.

      They are socialists, by definition and program: "Social democracy is a political ideology that considers itself to be a form of reformist democratic socialism" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_democracy

    10. Re:He said asia/canada by Mitreya · · Score: 1

      Congress is supposed to regulate war, actually. The only reason Obama goes on with wars/drone strikes is because Congress is staying out of it - uniformly so on both R-side and D-side.

      If Congress is "staying out of it", then he has no authority to do it. The fact that Congress isn't doing anything about it doesn't grant him implicit authority to do so.

      You have no idea how much I agree with you. I was just saying that if Republicans were interested in stopping Obama for the good of the country (which is your assertion), they would be fighting this one. It is a weak defense, but still -- it is indeed harder for Democrats to lead the opposition to what Obama does. You'd think it would be easier for Republicans.

      If Obama wants to get some law passed, he has to give up something else of greater value. Want to pass a carbon tax? Repeal Obamacare. Want to raise taxes? Make big cuts in entitlements. That's the kind of deals he can get. Other "deals" are simply not interesting to his political opponents, and why should they be?

      Fair enough. I would like to focus on the 2nd one here ("Want to raise taxes?"). During the last negotiation they could not agree because no matter what was offered, Republicans made a pledge to NOT RAISE TAXES. They negotiated and negotiated, but Republicans were not able to actually raise taxes. The best they could offer is to say that once taxes are cut, economy will improve and lower taxes will bring in extra money. Even if true, you agree that this is a laughable "concession", right?

      It's not even a question of whether Democrats have offered enough. At no point was there a counter offer from Republicans that involved anything that looked like raising taxes. Not even at a 99%/1% balance. You are clearly a reasonable person, so your position on this is - negotiate and get more than 50% of the deal. That's fine. But due to their ridiculous pledge, Republicans could not even offer 1% concession, perhaps you missed that? And they made no secret of that either.

      The funniest thing is that they were never talking about raising taxes (I don't think) as much as letting tax cuts expire. If Republicans wanted to permanently lower taxes, they should have not been invading Iraq... that cost money.

    11. Re:He said asia/canada by Fallout2man · · Score: 1

      Obama's pollicies a continuation of Bush's? Umm...Citation Needed here please? Because from what dimension do you conflate Bush's "Tax cuts cause the Confidence Fairy to come bless the Markets" philosophy with "Government needs to make up for the demand imbalance through infrastructure spending and other direct investments in our future capacity" of Obama?

      Next time, try listing examples so you don't sound quite as unhinged. ^_^

    12. Re:He said asia/canada by kenorland · · Score: 1

      I was just saying that if Republicans were interested in stopping Obama for the good of the country they would be fighting this one.

      For Congress to stop a US president from doing something has a very high cost, by design. That's why it happens rarely and why most US presidents get away with a lot, even though people compile long lists of their legal and constitutional violations.

      During the last negotiation they could not agree because no matter what was offered, Republicans made a pledge to NOT RAISE TAXES.

      My point is this: a lot of people have no problem if nothing moves in Congress for the next four years and if Obama doesn't get any legislation passed. We don't care whether the tax cuts expire, it's not about the level of taxation. It's that passing new laws will inevitably be an opportunity for more rent seeking by special interests, hidden in laws that are thousands of pages long, and create big legal uncertainty for both individuals and businesses.

      Far from "letting the country burn", stopping the president (any president) from passing new legislation for a few years is a breather the country needs, in particular after all the crap both Bush and Obama pushed through over the last decade.

    13. Re:He said asia/canada by Lehk228 · · Score: 1

      If the GOP in the house is willing to meet Obama part way, then the situation will improve.

      If my aunt had balls she'd be my uncle

      --
      Snowden and Manning are heroes.
    14. Re:He said asia/canada by thetoadwarrior · · Score: 1

      Yeah we should all be no compromise tough guys because that's worked out so well for us so far. You always have to compromise and any intelligent person realises that. You just don't automatically roll over and give in completely to someone but you should compromise. The no compromise mentality is what makes someone a Hitler.

    15. Re:He said asia/canada by kenorland · · Score: 1

      The no compromise mentality is what makes someone a Hitler.

      Congress has compromised plenty with Obama, and he has been a hugely active president:

      http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/magazine/march_april_2012/features/obamas_top_50_accomplishments035755.php

      You brought up Hitler, not me. Obama is, of course, no Hitler; Obama is a well-meaning progressive president who overpromises and overspends too much. But your comparison is food for thought, because Hitler, too, asked for powers to fix the economy, help the jobless, and improve security, and parliament granted them to him "for the good of the country".

  22. Re:Good. by JustOK · · Score: 1

    Yah, Canada is a good investment, n'est pas?

    --
    rewriting history since 2109
  23. Patents by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The reason why startups can't grow big.

  24. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Funny

    I buy silver. I've actually accumulated enough now where it's hard to lug around. It's cheaper, and works on werewolves.

  25. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The going over the fiscal cliff and the hitting the debt ceiling are two separate things. We won't hit the debt ceiling until at least mid January...

    But both are manufactured financial crisis designed to panic the public into accepting policies that are not in their best interests.

  26. financial cliff, but US has 11 aircraft carriers by Dan667 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    and is building a 12th. The are also a very long list of unneeded military weapon systems that are still funded and rampant corporate welfare. When conservatives want to talk about real fiscal responsibility and not just making the really rich richer than they might be able to say the words "financial cliff" without me laughing at their pure greed.

  27. Taking stock of /. by Ostracus · · Score: 1

    Amid Fiscal Uncertainty Venture Capital Is Way Down In Silicon Valley

    Ummm, is this a good time to invest in Slashdot? :)

    --
    Shai Schticks:"You don't make peace with friends, you make peace with enemies"
  28. Re:Wait until the end of Obama II by Dan667 · · Score: 1

    so you would support an end to corporate welfare. The US cannot afford it, especially giving it to companies having record profits each year.

  29. The plan has failed by cvtan · · Score: 1

    Maybe since the hoard-cash-and-don't-make-jobs-so-Obama-loses plan didn't work out, they should just buy big TVs and a couple of kegs and just live it up.

    --
    Sorry, but gray text on gray background is making my eyes bleed.
  30. Re:Good. by ExploHD · · Score: 2

    and you are correct...

  31. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    You seem confused, bro. Vulture capitalism is a derogatory term for the private equity industry, not the venture capital industry.

  32. Bullshit by PopeRatzo · · Score: 5, Insightful

    This is nothing but FUD.

    "Fiscal uncertainty" isn't going to dissuade anyone from making a buck if it can be made.

    And in real terms, in real, honest-to-god terms of providing good lives and good jobs for people right here in this country, I'm not all that sure that "venture capital" really means all that much. Oh, it means a lot to those who have it, and for a few minutes it means something to a handful of their pals, but if there is going to be a resurgence of innovation and growth in this country, it's not going to come from "venture capital". Because, as I said, if there's a buck to be made, even if taxes are high, people will line up to get it, regardless of the tax rates. Remember, this whole thing is over whether or not we're going to go back to the tax rates we had during the Clinton administration when everybody was making money.

    There was venture capital in every hot and cold tap during the 90s, and all we got was this lousy popped bubble.

    Real federal tax rates have never been lower for "venture capital". Is paying 14% really so onerous?

    The whole "John Galt" story shows just how incapable of self-examination our economic elite have become. The notion that if the captains of industry are so important - such unique snowflakes - that if they were to disappear there wouldn't be a line of people ready and able to jump into that spot is such an example of ego run amok. But we already knew the egos of our financial elite have reached escape velocity that they believe they are worth yearly incomes of over 1000 times what the average worker is worth. What kind of self-regard does it take for someone to believe that?

    Let's see how well their little tantrum works out for them.

    Their money has already been on the sidelines. I'm guessing that we're in better shape to do without them than they are to do without us. Fuck 'em.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
    1. Re:Bullshit by SourceFrog · · Score: 1

      "Fiscal uncertainty" isn't going to dissuade anyone from making a buck if it can be made

      Lol .. the whole meaning of the word "uncertainty" points itself to an unknown as to whether "it can be made" - that's the whole point. And you really think risk is not a factor in investment? Really!? Are you fucking serious? How did you get +5? This is one of the most basic things you'll ever learn in economics.

      --
      My other UID is three digits.
    2. Re:Bullshit by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      "Fiscal uncertainty" isn't going to dissuade anyone from making a buck if it can be made.

      Uh, that's the point, uncertainty means there is significant doubt that a buck can be made. I thought you would realize this.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    3. Re:Bullshit by smpoole7 · · Score: 2

      > I'm guessing that we're in better shape to do without them than they are to do without us. Fuck 'em.

      What terrifies me is that you actually believe that. You're not alone, either.

      --
      Cogito, igitur comedam pizza.
    4. Re:Bullshit by swell · · Score: 1

      What options have they? Put their money in the bank? (snicker)

      They have to invest in something and few investments have the potential of Venture funding. The paranoia that tax increases seems to cause is all in the overhyped media. The reality is that historically the economy and the rich have done very well during periods of high taxes.

      --
      ...omphaloskepsis often...
    5. Re:Bullshit by metlin · · Score: 2

      I'm guessing that we're in better shape to do without them than they are to do without us. Fuck 'em.

      Have you ever genuinely tried started a company, and tried to ramp it up? Ever run into a situation where you need capital, and the only way you can succeed is either by taking loans or getting investors? Ever been in a situation where you've sold a lot of what you own for an idea you believe in, and really hope someone out there is willing to pitch in? Ever put in so much of your life into an idea that you're willing to do anything it takes to keep it going forward? Ever look desperately to get out of the red before the money in your account dies out? Ever sold your favorite things so that you would have enough money for one more week? Didn't think so.

      Anyone who has ever really been an entrepreneur and has gone balls to the wall will realize the value of investors, angel or VC. I've been on both sides of the fence, and if you really think that, you are an idiot.

    6. Re:Bullshit by foniksonik · · Score: 1

      He's saying the businesses that can make money with a sound business plan that a typical bank will fund will do fine. It's the blue sky ideas, the Pets.com ideas that will not get funded. Does anyone care if Pets.com doesn't get funding? No. We don't.

      --
      A fool throws a stone into a well and a thousand sages can not remove it.
    7. Re:Bullshit by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      Have you ever genuinely tried started a company, and tried to ramp it up?

      Yes on both counts, in the 1980s.

      I'm retired now, but the company continues, run by a friend and my daughter.

      I did not use professional venture capitalists, but a host of loans, and the equity in my home and summer house for capital. I did not give up any equity in the company.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    8. Re:Bullshit by systemeng · · Score: 1

      I know exactly what you mean, metlin. I've been doing business case analysis for a startup I'm developing which will produce a tangible product with a high profit margin. A single machine in the production process has 6 zeroes in the price tag and the amount of money needed by the company over 5 years has seven zeroes. While I was able to fund the basic research with my own checkbook, scaling it into a profitable product with that funding source is impossible.

    9. Re:Bullshit by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2

      Lol .. the whole meaning of the word "uncertainty" points itself to an unknown as to whether "it can be made" - that's the whole point.

      Yes, that's the whole point.

      There is risk in starting a company, and "venture capitalists" believe we should relieve them of any risk.

      If they don't want to take the risk, there are others who will.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    10. Re:Bullshit by PopeRatzo · · Score: 2

      Uh, that's the point, uncertainty means there is significant doubt that a buck can be made. I thought you would realize this.

      Yes, and that's my point too. "Venture capitalists" are the RIAA of business. They want society to indemnify them against risk, and when they succeed they want guarantees that society won't tax them.

      If they are adding something to the creative process of business creation, then let them be creative. They want guarantees, but there are no guarantees.

      Let's look at a famous private capital company, Bain Capital. Did they risk their own money? No. They created debt. They saddled the companies they "helped" with ungodly amounts of debt and charged hefty fees (which were taxed as if they had risked their own money, which they had not) and then if it worked, they made dough and if it didn't work, they made dough.

      If today's "venture capitalists" are risk adverse, then let them sit on the sidelines or move to some Galtian utopia. Somebody else will be happy to take that risk if the rewards are possibly there.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    11. Re:Bullshit by metlin · · Score: 2

      I did not use professional venture capitalists, but a host of loans, and the equity in my home and summer house for capital. I did not give up any equity in the company.

      That's like Mitt Romney saying, if you do not have money for college, get it from your parents.

      When I had my first startup as a graduate student, I was eking a living making ~$700 a month. A home and a summer house? Yeah right.

      If you think most entrepreneurs have that kind of capital at their disposal, either in actuality or in illiquid assets that can be leveraged, you must be smoking.

      While I am happy for your success, as someone who's started several companies in the past decade (with no house to leverage for a loan, btw -- so banks will not just lend you money), your thinking only works for those who already have something tangible to bargain with.

    12. Re:Bullshit by Kohath · · Score: 1

      You clearly have no idea what venture capital is.

    13. Re:Bullshit by onix · · Score: 1

      And guess what, no VC is going to give you money. They are more eager in fly-by-night operations that can sell hype over product -- I mean which is easier and less risky? I feel your pain, as I'm also a startup with large capital costs. Your best strategy is to find someone higher up on the vertical chain that is your customer investor.

    14. Re:Bullshit by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      That's like Mitt Romney saying, if you do not have money for college, get it from your parents.

      If you can't convince traditional investors, one should reconsider.

      You don't have to give away the kind of blood the VCs are looking for.

      While I'm glad the VCs exist, I don't want them being the model for the way businesses start up.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    15. Re:Bullshit by smpoole7 · · Score: 1

      > The reality is that historically the economy and the rich have done very well during periods of high taxes.

      The rich can weather any storm (short of angry villagers storming the castle with pitchforks and torches, but don't stop me when I'm on a roll). :)

      The real issue is the middle class -- or even the lower middle class -- and the desire to make something more of one's self. This may seem off topic, but it isn't: the fact is, for the US Government to have the revenue that it wants, taxing the top 2% at a 100%, confiscatory rate still won't do it. That means that, at the end of the day, they will either (a) continue to borrow, or (b), come after me.

      (The real answer is (c), both of the above. I'm not even being a prophet; I'm stating a fact. They have no choice.)

      To empower and grow the middle class, you need opportunity. Take the barriers out of the way, they'll create small businesses and they'll hire others. As those businesses grow, they will need capital. It's just that simple.

      --
      Cogito, igitur comedam pizza.
    16. Re:Bullshit by tehcyder · · Score: 1

      "Fiscal uncertainty" isn't going to dissuade anyone from making a buck if it can be made.

      Uh, that's the point, uncertainty means there is significant doubt that a buck can be made. I thought you would realize this.

      There's always some uncertainty in life. People who are good at making money will make money regardless. In Weimar Republic Germany some people ended up doing OK.

      It's not money-driven entrepreneurs who suffer during economic recessions and depressions and hyper-inflations, it's the poor (non) working people.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    17. Re:Bullshit by phantomfive · · Score: 1

      True, poor are hurt most.

      The more difficult you make it to be an entrepreneur, the fewer people will be able to overcome that barrier and actually make money.

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    18. Re:Bullshit by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      - and if there isn't a buck to be made?

      There is always a buck to be made if you are innovative and smart.

      An increase in the dividend tax rate to 39.6% will mean that the overall rate (corporate + dividend) will be 64.1%,

      That is unbelievably bogus. We always hear the sunshine libertarians talking about how capital gains tax is "double taxation". Unfortunately, a great deal of the money that is thrown into the category of capital gains, in fact, MOST of the money called capital gains, was never taxed at any other level. Maybe you didn't follow the stories about how Mitt Romney got rich from Bain Capital (using him as an example). His income was taxed as capital gains, even though it was not his money that was being risked in the venture. This is something not a lot of people know.

      Yes, the poor do not do anything compared to the rich for the economy

      That is so far from the truth that it has convinced me you're either a blind ideologue or too misinformed to discuss this topic.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
    19. Re:Bullshit by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

      - a buck can be made, the question is can that buck be retained or will it be confiscated.

      So the question is, "Will there be taxes?" Or is the question, "Should I as a profitable business owner be required to support the institutions and infrastructure that make it possible for me to be successful?

      Or maybe the question is, "After I make the first $250,000, what is a fair portion of my income that may be required to be paid as taxes?"

      But if the question is, "Will the government confiscate my wealth?" the answer is "You have been listening to too much far-Right ideology."

      As a stock holder you own part of the company, you bought that with your after tax income in the first place. The value of stock is a function of earnings (multiple of earnings), and those are after tax earnings, so price of a stock is very specifically tied to what a company is earning after it's been taxed, that's first.

      Except there is a whole lot of money that gets taxed as "capital gains" that has nothing to do with profits from equities. For example, when I trade derivatives, options, I am allowed to claim the income as "capital gains", but I'm not buying any equity. No corporate taxes were paid on any part of the money in the derivatives market. And the derivatives market now equals more than all the equities put together. In fact, the derivatives market equals more than all the GDPs of all the countries on Earth, and not one penny in "corporate taxes" were paid on any of it. I trade indexes, and not one bit of my investment is in any way associated with the equity in any company except in the sense that the prices of the items in the basket that make up that indexes are equities. It's like the old numbers racket, which used the published treasury numbers as the equivalent of lotto balls.

      Most of the financial "market" has nothing to do with corporations, they are just bets on whether a number will go up or down. More money is made in those markets than in the equities market. There is no reason on God's earth why income from the derivatives market should not be taxed as regular income (and there should be a financial transactions tax on top of that). And I say this as someone who makes a significant portion of our household income in this way.

      - no poor person does anything for me

      Really? Who do you think put together that fancy smartphone in your pocket? Who do you think made every bit of clothing on your body? Where do you think your food comes from?

      You have to remember that there is a fundamental truth found in all economic systems: Labor precedes Capital. A tree is just a tree until somebody cuts it down and fashions it into a chair. And there were chairs being made long before logging conglomerates came into being. There was food being grown (manufactured) long before General Mills and Archer Daniels existed. There has to be Labor before there can be profit. The Koch Brothers are SOL until some poor sod goes down into the mine and pulls out some coal for them. So there can be goods and services without rich people, but there cannot be goods and services without what you call "poor people".

      You really need to examine the assumptions you make and the ideology you accept a little more carefully. You are being misled and misinformed.

      --
      You are welcome on my lawn.
  33. Silver lining by PopeRatzo · · Score: 1

    The more I read the article and follow the links, the more I think that having the Silicon Valley venture capital boys clutching their pearls and running to the fainting couches might be a really good thing for our country.

    --
    You are welcome on my lawn.
    1. Re:Silver lining by drinkypoo · · Score: 1

      The more I read the article and follow the links, the more I think that having the Silicon Valley venture capital boys clutching their pearls and running to the fainting couches might be a really good thing for our country.

      Speaking of couches, won't someone think of Herman Miller? What will they do if VCs aren't throwing money around like confetti?

      --
      "You're right," Fisheye says. "I should have set it on 'whip' or 'chop.'"
  34. Re:Good. by Mashiki · · Score: 1

    Yeah, because taxes are SOOOOOooo much lower in Canada and the EU than in the U.S.

    Well...actually, yeah in parts of Canada they are. And if the $7b in taxes goes through at the start of next year happen, I'm sure those of us up in Canada will see American companies flocking to Canada.

    --
    Om, nomnomnom...
  35. Re:Wait until the end of Obama II by alexmin · · Score: 1

    Looks like you still do not get it. The cuts will not be "for a reason". Simply, there will be no money. I know, it's hard to imagine US government being out of money but this happened to many "great countries" of the past. Just ask Germans, or Russians, or Brits.
    I have lived through one of those moments. You apparently did not. There is no "reason", or "cause", or "justice". At that point it's only about "surviving". It's not pretty. Until then enjoy your ivory tower.

  36. Re:GOP Needs to Understand by phantomfive · · Score: 2

    Obama is willing to compromise, as long as he gets everything he wants.

    Do you realize this is the exact opposite of compromise?

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  37. Re:Wait until the end of Obama II by alexmin · · Score: 1

    As I wrote above: it's not pretty. Especially sucks to be one of those whose lifeline is cut. Falling from the window is not pretty either. Try legislate law of gravity away.

  38. Yes. Inflation by gr8_phk · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It causes devaluation of cash. The only way to avoid it is to invest in something. And with the fed printing money (see QE, QE2, and QE3) we should be seeing it sometime in 2013. I'm hoping late 2013 or early 2014 but that doesn't seem realistic. Now with the type of QE they did, there is supposedly the option of undoing it somehow, but I'm a bit sceptical.

    Why isn't it happening yet? My suspicion is that most of the money went nearly directly to the people who are hoarding it. If it's not circulating it ain't going to cause actual inflation. If this is correct, the Fed truely fucked up. A regulatory and tax climate that allows their last ditch effort to go straight into someones pot of gold would not only eliminate their ability to influence the economy, it would hand it over to someone else ;-(

    It's been said that US multinationals are holding over a trillion dollars in offshore cash. So if we do get some signs of inflation they may just go on a buying spree to the tune of a trillion dollars. Watch for inflation to start small and then spike - at least for prices of things huge companies like to buy.

    1. Re:Yes. Inflation by phantomfive · · Score: 3, Insightful

      It causes devaluation of cash. The only way to avoid it is to invest in something. And with the fed printing money (see QE, QE2, and QE3) we should be seeing it sometime in 2013. I'm hoping late 2013 or early 2014 but that doesn't seem realistic.

      We should have seen it in 2010, based on the increase in money supply at that time. Why do you think 2013 will be the year?

      --
      "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
    2. Re:Yes. Inflation by hibiki_r · · Score: 1

      The reason it's not working is pretty simple: Printing money today without the clear expectation that you'll keep printing money doesn't really affect markets all that much.

      Think of the Chuck Norris example. We are at a large party, and Chuck Norris finds it's too crowded, So he goes, beats someone up, and kicks him out. Then he waits 20 minutes, and if it's still to crowded, he kicks someone else out. If he doesn't keep beating people up, most of us will not leave said party immediately (heck, watching Chuck pummel a party goes will make a cool story, so some people might even come in to see), and Chuck will end up kicking a ton of people out until his proper party density is achieved. Mysterious Chuck will do a lot of punching and kicking.

      Now, imagine that instead, he says 'In 10 minutes, I'll start kicking people's asses until there's only 500 people in this party'. Do you really think that he'd have to spend as much time brawling? Knowing how many people will get beaten up, I'm pretty sure that people will leave to avoid being pummeled.

      Markets work the same way. If Bernanke said he'd sell a US dollar for 1 south african Rand in 5 months, and we didn't think he'd be fired before that, the Rand would go up towards 1:1 today, not in 5 months. Same thing for the Fed: Given that the fed can print as much as they want, if they said: 'We'll print as much money as we want, for as long as we want, until NGDP is up 5% from last year, the market would change its tune pretty quickly.

  39. Re:Good. by feedayeen · · Score: 1, Troll

    Yeah, because taxes are SOOOOOooo much lower in Canada and the EU than in the U.S.

    Well...actually, yeah in parts of Canada they are. And if the $7b in taxes goes through at the start of next year happen, I'm sure those of us up in Canada will see American companies flocking to Canada.

    You know, 7 billion in taxes is only about 200 bucks to each Californian. How much do you think it costs a company to move out of a state even? My guess is that for a small company it'd be on the order of tens-of thousands, without factoring in training costs and lost profits during the transition.

  40. Re:Wait until the end of Obama II by smpoole7 · · Score: 2

    > Simply, there will be no money.

    Getting people to believe that is the trick. It's not Republicans vs. Democrats, either. Both parties have spent more than incoming revenue (albeit on different things at times, and in different amounts).

    Case in point: I work in Jefferson County, Alabama. It's bankrupt. (Literally. As in the largest municipal bankruptcy. Ever.) In spite of that, a few months back, the County Commission notes that there are condemned homes from the tornadoes of April 27, 2011. They declare it an emergency and SPEND MONEY THAT THEY DON'T HAVE on the "problem."

    There is a fundamental disconnect here. No one wants to believe that the great, the powerful OZ^H^H United States could run out of money, but it could. And as someone else pointed out above, the WORST case would be for the government to just start printing money to cover the shortfall. That will be completely and utterly disastrous.

    Trying to explain that to the average guy on the street is the trick. He or she just doesn't -- and WILL not -- get it.

    Shoot, the average Guy On The Street has no idea what a sweetheart deal we have a present by having the world's reserve currency. If that should change to the Yen or some other currency, prices are going to skyrocket as well.

    --
    Cogito, igitur comedam pizza.
  41. Re:financial cliff, but US has 11 aircraft carrier by whistlingtony · · Score: 4, Informative

    I'm actually responding to the two anonymous trolls that tried to say that welfare was more than the military budget.

    Ahem... Military budget for 2010. 683.7 billion. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_budget_of_the_United_States

    Or, here's a chart.
    http://www.usfederalbudget.us/welfare_budget_2012_4.html
    Looks like Defense is twice as big as the welfare budget.

    It took me 2 minutes to actually look at the data. I guess the two trolls never bothered to look into their own positions. Shame.

    While I'm at it... From Wikipedia

    CBO's preliminary estimates indicate the federal government spent $3.54 trillion on a budget or cash basis during fiscal year (FY) 2012 or 22.6% GDP, down 1.6% vs. FY2011 spending of $3.60 trillion. Spending fell across all major categories except Social Security and Medicare.[20]

    Yup, Obama is out of control! Face it, Republicans blow up the deficit, democrats fix it. Republicans whining about fiscal responsibility are lying. They're the ones that have blown up the federal deficit with stupid unneeded tax cuts and huge military expenditures. Look at a fancy graph of federal deficits against presidencies.... It's freak'in obvious. Conservatives hate facts...

  42. Lets jump off that cliff... by Charliemopps · · Score: 2

    As much as they're trying to terrify us about this cliff, about the best thing that could happen to this country is if gridlock takes us right over the edge of the cliff. Taxes would go up... Spending would go down... the public would lose even more faith in our 2 political parties and maybe the military cuts would help us decide to pull troops out of at least a few of the hundreds of countries we have them stationed in.

  43. Re:Good. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    The banks paid back their bailouts, for the most part, but the other industries have not. For example, GM still owes around half of their debt to the government (around $25 billion), and parts that they paid back were paid back in rather shady manners.

  44. Re:GOP Needs to Understand by mister_playboy · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This is the time for compromise.

    Obama is willing to compromise, as long as he gets everything he wants.

    Ah, projection... What Republicans do to others, they imagine is being done to them.

    The Republicans should have taken the offer they got out of Obama last year, now they'll have to settle for something they like less.

    --
    Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the Law ::: Love is the law, love under will
  45. Re:Elections have consequences by Trepidity · · Score: 3, Insightful

    The decline in VC spending did not start on November 7, and is not due to feverish fears of Obama. It dates to earlier this year at the latest, and is more related to spectacular flops in Bubble 2.0, stuff like Zynga's IPO going down in flames. It's not really Obama's fault that a lot of the tech bubble companies have no business plan.

  46. Re:Good. by HermMunster · · Score: 2

    Kickstarter projects are making up for it, most certainly.

    --
    You can lead a man with reason but you can't make him think.
  47. Re:GOP Needs to Understand by mister_playboy · · Score: 1

    Sarcasm detector calibration required.

    --
    Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the Law ::: Love is the law, love under will
  48. Re:Good. by zieroh · · Score: 2

    You seem confused, bro. Vulture capitalism is a derogatory term for the private equity industry, not the venture capital industry.

    You must not live in Silicon Valley.

    --
    People who say "sheeple" have about as much sophistication as an AOL user, and in fact are probably actually AOL users.
  49. Money isn't reflecting reality anymore by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Maybe the problem is "money".... what if we ignore money, does the US produce enough food for everyone to eat? Do we build enough homes for everyone to live? Do we have enough water for everyone to drink? Do we have enough electricity for everyone to stay warm/cool? Do we have enough natural resources for everyone to have a basic, yet livable, livestyle? If the answer is Yes to all those questions then the real question becomes why do we have the problems we are having?

    Money was created as a way to exchange goods and services easily by a group of people that accept the money is worth some "quantity" of a real product (e.g., food, water, mineral), nothing more. The simple fact is that everyone could easily have the basics to life (shelter, water, food) in the US without problems and those who want to work (or can work) could have a lot more. But instead we have created a monster called "money" (that doesn't even exist, it's just bits in a computer for 99% of it) that denies a lot of people even a basic living condition (or gives just enough to survive semi-comfortably on). Now, don't get me wrong, this isn't some communist or socialist ideal, I don't buy into that model any more than capitalism; I'm just trying to point out that we have the resources to manage all this as a country, so why doesn't the "money" reflect that?
     

    1. Re:Money isn't reflecting reality anymore by smpoole7 · · Score: 1

      But we don't have all the resources we'd need to fulfill that dream. We import a considerable percentage of what we need in our daily lives.

      --
      Cogito, igitur comedam pizza.
  50. Re:Good. by SomePgmr · · Score: 1

    Tough question. We had market crashes during both, so depends on what you were invested in.

  51. Re:Elections have consequences by artor3 · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Turn off Fox. They're poisoning your mind, and stripping you of your ability to reason.

    Corporations want the recession to continue. They make record profits during recession. They can use it as an excuse to lay off your coworkers, make you do the work of two people, and pay you less to boot. As if that's not enough, they tell you over and over that you must destroy your safety net and using the saving to cut their taxes, making things even better for them and even worse for you. They are conning you.

    I'd like to refute your claims in greater detail, but the fact is that you haven't provided any details to refute. You're just insisting that Obamacare is somehow destroying the economy, but have you given any thought into how that could even be possible? No, of course not. The nice man on TV said so, and he said a bunch of other words that sounded smart, and he said them so confidently! It must be true!

  52. Re:Good. by ShanghaiBill · · Score: 1

    vulture capital money does more harm than good in Silicon Valley.

    Without VCs, Silicon Valley would not even exist. If you drive down Hwy 101 and look at the signs on the buildings, you would have difficulty finding any that got where they are without VC funding.

    A good idea isn't enough to be successful in tech. You need the VC money to "get big fast". If you try to grow organically, you will get crushed by those with better judgement.

    If the VCs aren't investing today, then there will be no new signs along 101 in five or ten years.

  53. Re:GOP Needs to Understand by Mashiki · · Score: 2

    Beh. I'm a fiscal conservative, and to be honest unless you guys get your house in order there won't be much left. It's pretty interesting to watch from up here in Canada. Though never mind that the democrats idea of "cutting to balance" in that case was raising spending by 8%. Sorry the GOP had the right idea of blackballing the democrats on that one.

    But hey, you've got all of a month and a half until the largest tax hike in history comes to fruition and kills the poorest economic recovery since the great depression comes into play. Personally from a currency traders pov, you guys have been in a depression since '08ish and all Obama has done has prolong any type of recovery by tinkering like hell with the markets. Using QE only does one thing though, make me more money.

    --
    Om, nomnomnom...
  54. Re:Good. by alexander_686 · · Score: 2

    Vulture capitalism is a subtype of private equity.

    Private equity(PE) tend to be limited partnerships with a fixed horizon of 10 to 20 years. They tend to specialize.

    Venture Capital are PEs that specialize in funding firms that are in start up mode. i.e., are young and not profitable. The idea is provided money and management experience and hit a home run.

    Then there are the “distressed” and/or “turn-around” PEs. They will either 1. Come in and turn around the firm or 2. Dismantle the firm and sell it off for parts.

    Bain Capital runs both types of funds. Warren Buffett does too. When he invested in Berkshire Hathaway is was in the declining cloth industry. For the next 50 years – well.

  55. Re:GOP Needs to Understand by Artifakt · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Just since the election, the Republicans (or at least John Boehner) have offered, as a supposed compromise, that if the government gets more income from better economic circumstances, tax reforms, and cutting waste, the republicans will allow the government to some of that money. Since he has absolutely no pwere to stop the government from recieveing any income that comes from such sources, this is like me offereing to allow gravity to work normally, and then claiming I've made a good offer of compromise and now the other side needs to give me something.

                Really, that's a compromise only in Boenerspeak - cut the programs the Republicans say we can't afford, implement all the methods suposedly part of Mitt Romney's tax plan instead of the President's, fund every single defense and homeland security program the Republicans want, and then if revenues go up, he's willing to allow some of those revenues to be kept by the government, and maybe even spent on something besides the Republican priorities.

              THAT's his first new 'compromise' offer since the election - give him and his party 100% control over existing funds and IF somehow the economy does better than he expects, he will let the government have the extra taxes this produces, and just maybe even let his opposition restart SOME of the programs for which he's demanding complete shutdowns. How does he propose to stop the government from accepting new tax revenues if they don't give him everything he demands? Does John Boehner actually have the power to unilaterally refuse new revenues and send them back to to the donors or spend them somewhere else? No? Then offering to give up that power is absolutely meaningless.

    --
    Who is John Cabal?
  56. The VCs and their sense of entitlement. by 140Mandak262Jamuna · · Score: 3, Insightful
    Why the hell should the government make it certain for the VCs? This is free market, pal? Cant stand the heat? Get out of the kitchen.

    We don't owe these VCs certain profits. You take the risk. If your bets come off, great, enjoy your fortune after paying the capital gains taxes. If the bet goes bad, cry me a river.

    The sense of entitlement these businesses have is astounding. It is your money. Keep it under the mattress if you want. Fund startups at your own risk. Or enjoy it on a beach in Cayman islands. We live in a democracy. We change our House every two years. We change the White House every four years. We change the Senate every six years, 33% every two years. The winner makes new rules. Wanna play? Fine. Wanna take your ball and go home? Good riddance.

    --
    sed -e 's/Chuck Norris/Rajnikant/g' joke > fact
  57. Tax for Corporations is around 2% to 14% by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 1

    Increase the taxes to 35% to 45% and Silicon Valley will be humming with $Billions of dollars. Yeah, increase taxes and Corporations gets tax credits. Billionaires and Millionaires also get tax credits when they pay their fair share of taxes.
    Increasing taxes is called Public & Private Investments.

  58. Re:GOP Needs to Understand by Revotron · · Score: 1

    Obama is willing to compromise, as long as he gets everything he wants.

    A Slashdotter with some mod points read this phrase, paused for a second in deep thought, nodded his head approvingly, and modded this glaringly sarcastic post "Insightful".

    We're all fucking doomed.

  59. Re:Good. by demachina · · Score: 4, Insightful

    The origin of most of the cash glut recently isn't direct governent bail outs, most of it is due to the massive liquidity injections (a.k.a money printing) being done by the Fed, ECB and various other central banks. They are in a massive race to the bottom to see who can debase their currency faster, juice their exports, and print money to finance massive sovereign debts.

    This money printing is mostly propping up the stock market and corporate profitability. It makes it look like all is well, though in reality the value of the dollars those things are measured in is plunging more than the stock market or corporate balance sheets are actually improving. It is a creating an economy based largely on fantasy, and is creating a global Wiemar Republic.

    What the Fed is doing is also referred to as Financial repression. It is artificially suppressing interest rates, punishing savers, especially seniors who shun the stock market, and giving debtors, including the U.S. government a giant finance your debt for free card. China has been using massive financial repression for over a decade to juice their economy too.

    When central banks start printing money to finance sovereign debt, it is nearly impossible for it to end well. The only question is when will the house of cards they are building collapse.

    --
    @de_machina
  60. What's the alternative? by kenorland · · Score: 1

    The alternative to austerity is that you keep borrowing money. But people only let you borrow money if they expect you to pay it back with interest. That means you need to invest the money into something that has a return on investment. High pensions and high-end medical care don't have a return on investment, they are luxuries, and nobody is going to give you money for that.

    As for the US economy, it has always been healthier than Europe's, due to lower taxes, more economic freedoms, and less regulation. Obama's limp "stimulus" did nothing other than waste a lot of tax dollars and make our debt worse.

  61. Re:financial cliff, but US has 11 aircraft carrier by ChrisMaple · · Score: 1

    I hope where you live is invaded first; you deserve it.

    --
    Contribute to civilization: ari.aynrand.org/donate
  62. Re:Elections have consequences by artor3 · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You think corporate profits are going through the roof? Great! Buy some stock.

    I did! I made a killing! The markets have done great under Obama. But unemployment stays high because our corporate masters like the fact that they can pressure people into working longer hours for less money. Why would they want to start hiring again when they're getting along just fine as is? And meanwhile the millionaires on Wall Street bitch and moan about how awful it is that they might soon have to pay 20% taxes instead of just 15%, and how we should get that money by taking food and medicine away from poor people instead.

  63. Re:Good. by amiga3D · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Every time Ron Paul started talking about this stuff on the campaign trail he got booed and everyone promptly stuck their hands over their ears and went "lalalalalalalalala............." I hope it holds together 3 more years so I can cash my 401K out before it's gone. A lifetime of savings and those fuckers are going to cheat me out of it. The sad thing is it's all the fault of the American people who only listen to what they want to hear. This two party shell game is going to end soon and the public will discover that no matter which shell you flip there is nothing under any of them.

  64. It All Went West by NicknamesAreStupid · · Score: 2

    First, Silicon Valley sent the silicon (fabs) to Asia. Then, they outsourced labor to Asia. Then most start-ups needed an "Asian talent connection" (H1-B visa, India/China engineering, etc.) to get funding. Then,the VC set up offices in Asia. Now, those offices fund Asian start-ups. Asia is where the action is, and that is where the money is, too.

  65. Re:Good. by rs79 · · Score: 2

    VC's are trending down, Kickstarter is trending up. Isn't this how it should be?

    --
    Need Mercedes parts ?
  66. This problem predates the recession by Animats · · Score: 3, Informative

    This has little to do with the recession.

    I go to occasional VC conferences in Silicon Valley, and get to hear what the VCs are doing. It's not looking good. The VC industry as a whole hasn't made money since 2001 or so. During the dot-com boom, many new venture funds were created, resulting in an influx of dumb money. Most of them haven't been profitable.

    The problem is this. Before the dot-com boom, venture capitalists usually funded a startup which was going to make something. So they'd fund a few engineers for a few years, and about 1 time in 10, something good would come out that paid for the unsuccessful tries. This was a good business model and it drove Silicon Valley.

    Dot-com startups weren't about technology. They were about marketing and market share. So they had to be funded beyond the R&D phase, well into the growth phase, before the winners and losers became clear. The loss per failure was much higher than when VCs were involved in technology startups.

    This model has persisted in the post dot-com era and into the "Web 2.0" era. Most of the ideas one sees at VC meetings are minor variations on popular ideas. I've seen a presentation for a social network for cats. Some innovative technologies are proposed, but often they're not big wins.

    About 1 in 10 VC-funded companies makes it big. 2 to 3 in 10 go bust. The rest end up in "zombie mode" - they generate enough cash to pay their expenses, but can't pay back their investors. A big headache in the VC industry is dealing with the growing army of zombies. They're more profitable alive than dead, so they're not killed off, but they're a net loss. There are a lot of half-dead "social" startups around. Tech startups tended to be sold off for the technology or shut down. That's what VCs mean by "lack of an exit".

  67. Re:Good. by Kohath · · Score: 2

    US has the highest corporate tax rate in the world.

    Canada top tax rate is 29%, vs 35% in the US (as of 2011). In California, home to a lot of VC-funded companies, high state taxes make this considerably worse. Also, Canadians get health care with their tax payments. In the US, we don't. The Canadian government and the governments in the provinces are more efficient, less corrupt, and much less anti-business than in the US. Your stereotypes about Canada and the US are out of date.

    Every EU country and every Asian country has lower corporate taxes than the US. Around the world, the trend has been toward lower taxes except in countries that have enacted austerity plans and in countries with hardening socialist governments, like France and the US.

    It's no secret which places are the best ones to invest.

  68. Re:GOP Needs to Understand by Microlith · · Score: 1

    Obama is willing to compromise, as long as he gets everything he wants.

    I'm sorry, you seem to have mistaken Obama for Mitch McConnell, Eric Cantor and the rest of the Tea Party Republicans. They refused to compromise on anything right up until the last minute and I suspect they'll do it again. Now they have nothing to lose because they failed to make Obama a one-term President.

    Sorry, but it's not Obama being a worthless piece of shit.

  69. Re:GOP Needs to Understand by phantomfive · · Score: 1

    true, I missed it.

    --
    "First they came for the slanderers and i said nothing."
  70. Re:Good. by atriusofbricia · · Score: 1

    Every time Ron Paul started talking about this stuff on the campaign trail he got booed and everyone promptly stuck their hands over their ears and went "lalalalalalalalala............." I hope it holds together 3 more years so I can cash my 401K out before it's gone. A lifetime of savings and those fuckers are going to cheat me out of it. The sad thing is it's all the fault of the American people who only listen to what they want to hear. This two party shell game is going to end soon and the public will discover that no matter which shell you flip there is nothing under any of them.

    Is it too late for you to move your 401k to dollar independent funds? More into commodities and hard metals?

    --
    I was raised on the command line, bitch

    "Nemo me impune lacesset"

  71. Boehner should bow to the gerrymander by Bananenrepublik · · Score: 1

    What's so disgusting about this is that the republicans lost the popular vote in the house elections, yet the gerrymandering especially in Ohio and Pennsylvania but also in smaller states such as Wisonsin gave them a huge majority in the house. Still Boehner thinks entitled to demand that Romney's program (succinctly summarized as "more for the rich") be implemented. I think they can get away with this because understanding the implications of the gerrymander takes a few seconds of thought.

    To preempt the obvious replies: yes, Democrats state governments also gerrymander, and yes, Florida actually enacted laws against it. Neither means that the republicans won this house election.

  72. Re:Good. by Serious+Callers+Only · · Score: 1

    If you're intending to cash in your 401k and it is currently in stocks, can't you move your 401k into safer instruments gradually before retirement? If so you should be moving it gradually to cash starting right now, before you are subject to massive volatility. With all the money printing going on, related boom and busts in stocks and other assets, and various wars about to start, the safest place to be is (paradoxically) cash, at least in the short term. Over just a few years, the money lost to inflation will not be as significant as the risk due to volatility in stocks, bonds or anything else.

  73. Re:GOP Needs to Understand by _Sharp'r_ · · Score: 1

    Obama said "elections have consequences, I won" after the 2008 elections while explaining to the House Republicans why he wasn't going to compromise with them nor consider any of their ideas.

    The Democrats had control of the House and the Presidency and enough control of the Senate to pass any budget they wanted. (Only a majority vote needed for budget related matters.)

    In 2010, the Democrats lost the House in a landslide and then forgot all about that "elections have consequences" idea while essentially refusing to do anything about the budget in the Senate anymore. The House at least passed budget bills, etc... The Democrats in the Senate didn't even want to attempt to negotiate and didn't want to even consider passing a budget, not even anything modeled on Obama's suggestions.

    The Democrats have shown a zero willingness for "REAL compromise". They don't even want to have a discussion in the Senate at all about the budget, let alone actually pass a budget and then go into a conference debate with the House to reconcile the two competing budgets. Instead, they just ignore the law about being required to pass a budget every year.

    At least the House Republicans have been willing to put their ideas on the table and send them to the Senate as bills. Can you show us any concrete proposal from the Senate Democrats in return? Any start at all to negotiating to fix the record deficit spending?

    The 2012 voters decided to leave the House in the control of the Republicans and the Senate and Presidency in control of the Democrats. The House was put in the position of originating budgets and tax bills by the Constitution. They've done that many times and the Senate and the President have just ignored them.

    At what point do you stop blaming the only branch of government actually actively sending the other folks proposals and notice that the other folks are completely unwilling to even come to the table to suggest or debate anything?

    --
    The party of stupid and the party of evil get together and do something both stupid and evil, then call it bipartisan.
  74. Re:financial cliff, but US has 11 aircraft carrier by _Sharp'r_ · · Score: 1

    Let's do a simple test to see if tax cuts are primarily responsible for the deficit. If they are, then the deficits must be a result of revenue decreasing over the years while spending stays the same, right?

    Compare US Federal Revenue over time, which has gone from 22% of GDP to 34% of GDP with US Federal Spending over time which has gone steadily upward.

    Hmmm, seems pretty obvious that the issue is that spending has gone way up over time. While revenue hasn't quite kept up with the massive spending increases, it's also gone way up over time. So how can you blame tax cuts with a straight face? The fact is that federal government revenue went up after Reagan and Bush's "tax cuts". Congress just managed to spend even more money than they had before.

    The people in D.C. think that if you plan to spend way more and then change your plan to increase spending not quite as much, that's a drastic cut.

    Here's a modest proposal, how about we cut spending levels to what it was 10 or 20 years ago in the bad old days and then watch as the deficit magically turns into a massive surplus?

    One problem with letting D.C. take more of our money is that they just spend it. They have an essentially unlimited list of things people would like them to spend our money on. At some point we have to put our foot down and say they're going to have to prioritize some of it.

    Sadly, that doesn't seem to be going to happen anytime soon, since people are just arguing about how much of a spending increase we're going to have and where the extra money's going to be especially increased this year.

    --
    The party of stupid and the party of evil get together and do something both stupid and evil, then call it bipartisan.
  75. Re:Good. by thetoadwarrior · · Score: 1

    Lower corporate taxes maybe but higher salesTax and personal taxes. Simply lowering tax on companies doesn't make money magically appear.

  76. Re:Good. by sjames · · Score: 2

    Read your first link all the way through. PArticularly the part where it talks about effective vs. statutory tax rate.

    Likewise, consider the humongous loophole known as capital gains in the U.S.

  77. Re:Good. by TTL0 · · Score: 2, Funny

    The Goverment never asked for it's money back. They only asked that the auto industry carry Ohio for Obama.

    --
    Sanity is the trademark of a weak mind. -- Mark Harrold
  78. Re:Forget the fiscal cliff. by MaskedSlacker · · Score: 1

    WW3? Not likely. World wars require entangled alliances of opposed powers. Those don't exist anymore. Even the mutual defense alliances (like NATO) wouldn't go in for that shit. You've got 3 major nuclear powers with orthogonal interests (US, China, Russia), and a smattering of regional powers/lesser nuclear powers with a general lack of alignment (and a near total lack of military cooperation agreements between them). None of that adds up to a world war. Even a nuclear exchange, so long as it wasn't between two of the big 3, wouldn't be a global problem.

    Another costly, pointless regional war with $1 trillion in gold and blood down the sand? Yeah, that might happen.

  79. Re:Forget the fiscal cliff. by Rockoon · · Score: 1

    Unfortunately it's got to be paid for by the tax payers.

    But fortunately is doesnt have to be paid for by current tax payers. We can kick this can down a few more generations. Its just a number on a balance sheet.

    --
    "His name was James Damore."
  80. Re:Good. by kubajz · · Score: 1

    "the Fed is [...] supressing interest rates and [...] punishing savers [...] who shun the stock markets"

    Could that be because they want to motivate banks, companies and individuals to invest in stock markets instead of putting their money in term accounts, to create "more exits" that TFA is talking about?

    That is not to say I disagree with most of what you say, but it's just to point out to some reasons that drive these decisions (although we may think they're dysfunctional).

  81. Simple way to judge a startup by SmallFurryCreature · · Score: 1

    Does a startup get financed because the investors hope that they will get a share of the startups profits from sales of their product in the future OR from said startup being bought up without ever generating a profit?

    First = good.

    Second = bad.

    --

    MMO Quests are like orgasms:

    You may solo them, I prefer them in a group.

    1. Re:Simple way to judge a startup by TheSpoom · · Score: 1

      The problem is that the sales won't recoup the investor's money quickly enough; they're looking for either an exit (your option 2) or an IPO (like option 2 but seeks investment from the general public, a lot of which goes back to the initial investors). VC isn't traditional investment from my (admittedly limited) understanding.

      --
      It's better to vote for what you want and not get it than to vote for what you don't want and get it.
      - E. Debs
  82. Re:GOP Needs to Understand by DNS-and-BIND · · Score: 1

    Question: what's the first thing that happens when the government gets more money?

    Answer: they save it, getting rid of ruinous debt and only spending as much as is necessary to prudently invest for the future.

    Nah, just messing with you. They spend it (I would say like a drunken sailor, but the drunken sailor has no credit and gets thrown out the minute his cash comes to an end) and they not only do that but borrow against future revenues so as to spend as much as possible, right NOW. After all, what sort of voter supports politicians who restrict spending and act rationally?

    --
    Shutting down free speech with violence isn't fighting fascism. It IS fascism!
  83. Re:Elections have consequences by kenorland · · Score: 1

    And meanwhile the millionaires on Wall Street bitch and moan about how awful it is that they might soon have to pay 20% taxes instead of just 15%

    You'll bitch and moan too, because your retirement benefits are taxed with the same tax: higher capital gains taxes means less money for you, whether you have a defined benefit plan or a 401k.

    Why would they want to start hiring again when they're getting along just fine as is?

    Who cares? What kind of twisted view of our society do you have in which everybody is a corporate slave and in which lower productivity should be the goal? If corporations manage to produce the same stuff with less labor, that's a good thing. The labor that they don't hire is labor that can go off and do something new and useful. As far as I can tell, many US corporations still have far too many employees who do nothing productive.

  84. Re:Good. by beelsebob · · Score: 1

    Nothing good about VC's not wanting to spend money, that's a bad sign. VC's spend money where banks won't for startups that may be shaky, but still have a chance of launching a good and reliable product. About 10% of the money I had pre-election went into VC holdings. I pulled all my money out of the US market and changed it to asian/canadian fully the day after Obama won. I was actually rather surprised when I got a call from my brokerage who had gotten a call from the two US VC's that I had invested in begging me not to pull my money.

    And that's exactly why he's saying VC is a bad thing. Because it means that the success or failure of a business is tied directly to the whim of idiots who do things like pull the plug because they're pissed off about who got elected president.

  85. Fiscal Cliff is the new Y2K by yanagasawa · · Score: 1

    So taxes will go back to levels that prevailed during the most robust economy of modern times - sounds like a nightmare.

  86. Re:Elections have consequences by Ken+D · · Score: 1

    You'll bitch and moan too, because your retirement benefits are taxed with the same tax: higher capital gains taxes means less money for you, whether you have a defined benefit plan or a 401k.

    See, you need to get a financial education. Neither defined benefit, nor defined contribution plan distributions are taxed via capital gains. It's all ordinary income. That's one of the trade-offs for tax free growth pre-distribution phase.

    Also, in case the abstract thinking is too much, A society in which one day you have 100% employment and X production, is no more productive the day after 20% of the workers are laid off. Sure, an individual company may be, but the society... no. Not unless those workers actual get another job. Idle workers are not productive, whether they are on someone's payroll, receiving unemployment, or begging in the streets.

    Meanwhile, based upon my interactions with actual companies, I'd say that their 'products' (physical or non-physical) have lower quality due to their lack of employees, so their production value has probably gone down in real terms.

  87. Re:Indeed, they do... by Trepidity · · Score: 2

    Dude, he compromised so much on health-care that he literally passed the Republican health-care plan: it was almost identically the Heritage Foundation / Romneycare plan. As far as I can tell, it included virtually nothing of a Hillarycare-style, Democratic plan. So he basically compromised all the way to their side.

  88. Re:Good. by hibiki_r · · Score: 3, Insightful

    Not really.

    Companies are holding an inordinate amount of money because they don't want to spend it. If the Fed was really threatening the US with high inflation, why the heck would anyone hold cash reserves? You describe it in the next paragraph: Why would savers be punished while companies that are, in essence, saving, are not?

    Also, if you really think that the government will debase the currency Weimar style, then you must expect very high inflation, at which point, you can happily purchase inflation indexed securities straight from the treasury. Why then, does the TIPS market project inflation under the Fed target for the forseeable future? Really, you could make a mint.

    Go read some Sumner or something.

  89. Re:Good. by pla · · Score: 1

    What happens January 1st?, Bubba?

    Why, nothing happens, Lunch Meat. Just keep spending those welfare checks and smiling.

  90. It Most Assuredly Did Not by sjbe · · Score: 1

    First, Silicon Valley sent the silicon (fabs) to Asia.

    Nice sound bite except it isn't actually true. Yes a lot of chips are made in Asia but a lot are made in the US. Intel, Cypress, Freescale,IBM and more all have large scale and very competitive chip fab in the US.

    Then, they outsourced labor to Asia.

    Yes, the labor intensive assembly work. Would you rather pay $15/hour in the US or $1/hour in Asia? If you can find a way to get the work done in the US for similar cost, fame and fortune await you. For more automated work (like chip fabrication), much of the production is in the US. The US has a nearly $4 trillion manufacturing sector.

    Then most start-ups needed an "Asian talent connection" (H1-B visa, India/China engineering, etc.) to get funding.

    Citation needed. I have worked with a lot of tech startups and they do NOT need Indian or Chinese talent to get funding.

  91. Re:Elections have consequences by kenorland · · Score: 1

    Neither defined benefit, nor defined contribution plan distributions are taxed via capital gains. It's all ordinary income. That's one of the trade-offs for tax free growth pre-distribution phase.

    Sorry, I was spacing out and didn't put that right. What I was trying to say was that a lot of people's retirement funds are bound up in investments that are taxed by capital gains (since 401k's are so limited anyway). Furthermore, the benefits of other retirement plans are effectively determined by this rate; i.e., defined benefit plans only have to give you as much return as you would get from investing the money yourself and paying capital gains. Furthermore, increasing capital gains taxes will increase the dependency of individuals on employer benefits, which is the wrong direction to go in if you follow how those have worked out in the past.

    A society in which one day you have 100% employment and X production, is no more productive the day after 20% of the workers are laid off

    Not right away, but a year or two later, when those 20% of the workers have started new businesses, it is more productive: because 80% of the original workforce are doing the original work, and the 20% that were fired are now producing something else.

    I'd say that their 'products' (physical or non-physical) have lower quality due to their lack of employees, so their production value has probably gone down in real terms.

    And you are welcome to buy from companies that have more service, more employees, and higher prices. Companies like Apple or AT&T seem to employ vast numbers of well-coiffed people in their stores that do nothing useful for me. That's why Chinese mail order Android phones and cut-rate web-only self-service mobile phone services are so much cheaper: they don't have the people or overhead. I prefer the latter and more and more people seem to be coming around to my kind of view. And as they do, corporate America fires employees.

  92. VC versus Angels by sjbe · · Score: 1

    VC's are trending down, Kickstarter is trending up. Isn't this how it should be?

    Apples and oranges. Companies that need and can get VC funding aren't generally the sort that are going to get kickstarter funding. VC funding for the most part is for much bigger dollar amounts. Kickstarter is swell but it is more like a form of Angel investing and works on a smaller scale. (Not saying it's less important, just that it isn't how one is likely to get funding for a company like a biotech venture) Furthermore a lot of what VCs do isn't just providing funding. VCs provide a lot of management resources and expertise to try to grow the company. VC funding is expensive but it makes sense for certain types of businesses.

  93. Re:Good. by rhsanborn · · Score: 1

    Isn't the VC craze most an irrational exuberance? I think a lot of VCs were investing in companies that had no hope of ever making money where the VCs were counting on an Apple, Google, or Microsoft to buy the startup to be their return on investment. Now that Apple, Google, and MS aren't shoveling their money to VCs, maybe they actually have to fund companies with business plans? Those startups seem to be a lot more rare.

  94. Re:Good. by rhsanborn · · Score: 1

    Shhhhh, don't point out facts, that might ruin his poor little worldview that he's so highly taxed.

  95. VC is just one way to get funding by sjbe · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You need the VC money to "get big fast". If you try to grow organically, you will get crushed by those with better judgement.

    Think so? I've worked with a lot of VCs and I assure you that most of them would disagree with you. Most companies are not actually venture backed. Venture capital is only useful for companies with particular funding needs. A typical VC investment will be between $2 million up to maybe $50 million, have a 3-5 year investment horizon, and will be VERY expensive with the VC demanding 25%-60% of the company if not more. Most companies do not fit into the model for VC funding and in fact if you can avoid it you really do not want VC funding because the cost of capital is so extraordinarily high.

    Venture Capital funding is just one of many avenues to fund a business. It is a form of Private Equity but not the only one and certainly not the only way to build a successful tech company. VC money is extremely expensive and VC backed companies demonstrably do not succeed at a higher rate than non-VC backed companies.

  96. Re:Good. by Kohath · · Score: 1

    You're arguing against reality. Taxes in Canada are comparable to the US. They're not significantly higher. They can be a little higher or a little lower.

    Meanwhile, Canada has a business-friendly government that governs efficiently, a stable economy, and no looming sovereign debt/bankruptcy crisis.

  97. Effective corporate tax rate by sjbe · · Score: 1

    US has the highest corporate tax rate in the world

    The statutory rate is not the same thing as the effective rate which actually gets paid. The effective US corporate tax rate is just 12.1% of profits in 2011 which is the lowest number in 40 years. The 10 most profitable companies in the US last year paid, on average, approximately 9% tax.

    While I think that our tax code is a mess and needs serious reform, the notion that taxes in the US are the highest in the world is demonstrably false political propaganda. The 35% number you cite is a meaningless number which is only useful for political soundbites.

  98. Re:Good. by olau · · Score: 1

    Well, starting a company with the goal of being sold can make sense, even if it seems risky. It can even be a far more efficient strategy overall if the buyer has much better access to the market/customers.

  99. Re:Good. by demachina · · Score: 2

    The issue here is probably that it is a misnomer to say corporations are holding "cash". The big banks (a.k.a. primary dealers) are moving their cash hordes around constantly but I think most of it has been in the stock market and commodities. I imagine most corporations are doing the same. You would have been a complete chump to actually hold cash for the last three years because the value of dollars have been hammered.

    The key distinction is between holding your assets in liquid investments or investing it in your business. Companies are NOT investing it in growing their businesses which is what TFA is referring too. Why should they. Over the last 3-4 years it was incredibly easy to get huge returns just buying in to the stock market as it rallied from 6600 to 13000. It was shooting fish in a barrel for them to just ride the wave as the Fed reinflated the stock market by printing money and handing it to the primary dealers. Contrast the ease with making money gambling in stocks and commodities over the last three years versus doing the hard way, investing in your business, doing R&D, making products. Its why unemployment stays high. Its a lot easier to gamble for money these days than it is to work for it.

    As for when the inflation happens, as I said, no one knows. Maybe it won't. The problem is always that everyone has confidence in your currency until they don't. And when they lose it, it is usually sudden and ugly.

    Another problem is that, since nearly all central banks are debasing their currency, its a complete crap shoot to figure out which currency is safer than all the others. The Swiss Franc has been the hands down choice for most of the last three years but so much money has fled in to such a small country that its severely imbalanced too.

    Let's hope we get lucky and can muddle through. One plus to the Fed's money printing is they are replacing wealth wiped out when the housing bubble collapsed. Unfortunately they are replacing money lost by home owners and pension funds who bought mortgage backed securities, with money pouring in to Wall Street, and Wall Street is just using it to fund their gambling addiction, not to build companies or create jobs.

    --
    @de_machina
  100. Re:financial cliff, but US has 11 aircraft carrier by _Sharp'r_ · · Score: 1

    ok, 2005 dollars per capita.... federal government revenue has almost doubled. Has it ever been higher? Sure. Over time, has it been increasing, not decreasing? Yeah.

    Here's 2005 dollars per capita in government spending, from $4 Trillion to now over $10 Trillion. It's still very obvious that while revenue has gone up over time, spending has just gone up even more.

    Still clearly shows that the problem isn't less revenue, it's way, way too much spending. In 2000 we spent 30% less than in 2011 in per capita 2005 dollars. You can't explain that away by anything other than we're experiencing massive spending increases that have no relation to anything but that the feds just want to spend more money.

    --
    The party of stupid and the party of evil get together and do something both stupid and evil, then call it bipartisan.
  101. Re:Good. by tehcyder · · Score: 1

    countries with hardening socialist governments, like France and the US.

    The best thing is, you actually believe that.

    --
    To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  102. Re:Good. by amiga3D · · Score: 1

    I'm moving out of stocks and into government securities. No real return but as safe as anything is nowadays. No gold option I'm afraid or I'd take that. Three years left before I can cash out and run.

  103. Re:Good. by Yo+Grark · · Score: 1

    Except in Quebec. Just want to point that out.

    - YoGrark

    --
    Canadian Bred with American Buttering
  104. Re:Good. by atriusofbricia · · Score: 1

    I'm moving out of stocks and into government securities. No real return but as safe as anything is nowadays. No gold option I'm afraid or I'd take that. Three years left before I can cash out and run.

    Good luck. I'm afraid we'll all need that.

    --
    I was raised on the command line, bitch

    "Nemo me impune lacesset"

  105. How successful IPO's have we seen lately... by strangeattraction · · Score: 1

    Not a lot. Exactly how many Social Networking and Gaming sites can these guys fund? Get a grip, it is supply and demand. The supply of good ideas is relatively small at the moment. Most ideas are limited by the available infrastructure. We need increased broadband speeds to enable new possibilities. It's the infrastructure stupid.

  106. Re:Good. by sjames · · Score: 1

    You're arguing against your own citations!

  107. Re:Good. by TheSync · · Score: 1

    In California, home to a lot of VC-funded companies, high state taxes make this considerably worse.

    By the way, CA just raised the top state income tax rate to 13.3%. Even those making $250k of more will now pay 10.3%. Also CA sales tax is now 7.25%.

  108. War on profit by Shred303 · · Score: 1

    Yes this has nothing to do with our current presidents war on profit and subsequent reelection. Let's make a reference that points and blames conservatives call for some fiscal sanity. The US doesn't have a monopoly on innovation and investors can take their resources elsewhere and unfortunately this is exactly what is happening. I saw this coming. Tuesday night, this was my biggest fear.

  109. Re:Good. by bhiestand · · Score: 1

    In California, home to a lot of VC-funded companies, high state taxes make this considerably worse.

    By the way, CA just raised the top state income tax rate to 13.3%. Even those making $250k of more will now pay 10.3%. Also CA sales tax is now 7.25%.

    And yet California has the most billionaires of any state. Many of them are in Los Angeles, a city that would not exist if the local government had not raised massive tax revenues to pay for its utilities (esp. water).

    Aside from Hollywood, much of the wealth being created is the direct result of the state's incredible universities. Berkeley, UCLA, UCSD just to name a few public-funded schools. Cal Tech and Stanford on the other side of the house. I don't think it's any accident that California is able to attract or produce such great talent. And yes, these things need to be paid for. Since property taxes are so low, revenues have to come from sales and income taxes.

    --
    SWM seeks new sig for a brief fling
  110. Re:Good. by n7ytd · · Score: 1

    Every time Ron Paul started talking about this stuff on the campaign trail he got booed and everyone promptly stuck their hands over their ears and went "lalalalalalalalala............." I hope it holds together 3 more years so I can cash my 401K out before it's gone. A lifetime of savings and those fuckers are going to cheat me out of it. The sad thing is it's all the fault of the American people who only listen to what they want to hear. This two party shell game is going to end soon and the public will discover that no matter which shell you flip there is nothing under any of them.

    Is it too late for you to move your 401k to dollar independent funds? More into commodities and hard metals?

    Some 401k plans are very limited in what investment types are available. The good news is that if yours is one of these, you probably also work for a small company, which might be easy to persuade to add additional fund types.

  111. Ignore the conspiracy theorists by bhiestand · · Score: 1

    I think you touched on the counterargument (that has been very well made): while state money is loose, bank money (the overwhelming majority of the economy) is very tight. Because banks are still recapitalizing, the money supply is very tight. I'm not a fan of CATO or Hanke, but I still have to credit him for making the case on this. He also did a good EconTalk podcast about hyperinflation where he explains this in detail.

    I'm not prepared to say whether or not the fed fucked up yet. I think we're going to have to leave that one to the history books and just agree that we don't really have sufficient understanding of all the what-ifs at this time. My gut says they stopped things from getting far worse, but that these policies are simultaneously slowing a recovery and setting a path for a new bubble.

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    SWM seeks new sig for a brief fling
  112. Re:Indeed, they do... by Red+Flayer · · Score: 1

    Elections do, indeed, have consequences... the American people gave a large majority in the House of Representatives (where all taxes and spending are constitutionally-required to originate) to the Republicans

    And yet Democrats received a majority of the votes for House members... not just a plurality, a majority... yet the Republicans used their control of Statehouses to gerrymander the shit out of Congressional districts.

    The House Republicans have no mandate. The people of the US voted against them. Only chicanery has let them keep a majority in the House.

    The American People did not choose to have Republicans control the House. It is fact that a majority of Americans voted for Democrats in the House this election cycle.

    Your point does not stand.

    --
    "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
  113. Re:financial cliff, but US has 11 aircraft carrier by Red+Flayer · · Score: 1

    You can't explain that away by anything other than we're experiencing massive spending increases that have no relation to anything but that the feds just want to spend more money.

    To be a little more complete, the "partners" of the feds who own private concerns doing contract business with the US government want the feds to spend more money. Government payrolls? Way down since 2000. Direct government assistance? Doesn't even come close to making up that increase.

    The federal government wastes its money lining the pockets and coffers of private businesses. I believe that if it's worth it for government to spend money on something, then the government should operate it. Schools (local government), prisons, military, roads, etc. The only exception should be commodity procurement necessary for operations where there is a competitive marketplace.

    I find it ludicrous that there are companies that contract with the US government whose executive compensation is in the tens or hundreds of millions per year. Civil servants should be doing their jobs.

    --
    "Trolls they were, but filled with the evil will of their master: a fell race..." -- J.R.R. Tolkien on Olog-hai
  114. Re:Good. by Kohath · · Score: 1

    Really? Which citation says taxes in Canada are always higher than in the US? Which citation definitively contradicts anything I've said?

    Or are you just trolling?

  115. Re:Good. by Kohath · · Score: 1

    California property taxes aren't particularly low. They rank 17th out of 50 states as a percentage of median income (in 2005).

    Texas property taxes are lower. Texas also has no state income tax and much lower sales tax than California. Texas public schools rank higher in math and science education than California.

  116. Re:Good. by Kohath · · Score: 1

    And yet California has the most billionaires of any state.

    As the state with the largest population, California has the most of a lot of categories of people.

  117. Re:Good. by sjames · · Score: 1

    Read the first one all the way through.

    Then, to back up my overall position that the 'raising corporate taxes' is just a facade for "OMG, not a Democrat!", read this.

  118. Re:Good. by Kohath · · Score: 1

    Nope. I still have exactly zero idea what you're trying to say. What is a facade for what? Even Obama isn't proposing raising corporate taxes.

    That cnn thing you linked to didn't mention Canada at all. It's just a bunch of "on the one hand, on the other hand" blathering about plans no one ever implemented or even formally proposed as bills. Who cares? Anyone can pretend to analyze any non-specific plans to mean anything. Aside from someone who was born yesterday, who cares about any politician's vague proposals?

    You seem unable to make a concrete statement, factual or otherwise. I guess no one can claim you're wrong that way.

  119. Re:Good. by bhiestand · · Score: 1

    California property taxes aren't particularly low. They rank 17th out of 50 states as a percentage of median income (in 2005).

    But, per your source, they ranked 45th as a percentage of home value (0.48%), whereas Texas ranked 2nd (1.82%). Median income may be low, and housing values were extremely inflated in 2005 (which your data comes from), but there's no denying that California takes a lower percentage of the home's value than most states. This is primarily due to Prop 13, which capped property taxes and shifted the state towards sales and income taxes.

    Texas property taxes are lower. Texas also has no state income tax and much lower sales tax than California. Texas public schools rank higher in math and science education than California.

    California's K-12 has been gutted by repeated budget cuts, but I would argue it has much better universities than Texas. As I showed earlier, Texas also has much higher property tax rates as a percentage of home value.

    Texas has plenty of revenue sources. Feel free to review the Texas budget, specifically numbered pages 32-33. Their data doesn't provide an easy method of comparison, but it seems they take in some hefty federal "revenues". I don't know if this is from defense spending, assistance with medicaid and HHS, energy subsidies, or what. I can say that both states are reporting around $90B/year in revenue, which would place TX a bit ahead of CA in state revenue per capita.

    Then again, it's all moot since those Patriotic Texans are going to secede soon anyways.

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    SWM seeks new sig for a brief fling
  120. Re:Good. by sjames · · Score: 1

    I guess you need to start at the 2nd post in the thread (upon which all of this is based) claiming that he is moving investments to Canada because Obama was re-elected and he fears taxes.

    It DOESN'T make a lot of sense and I said so. At worst, U.S. corporate taxes are on par with Canada and the president is proposing we lower them. The CNN article I linked to supported the idea that Obama was proposing to LOWER corporate taxes, which you appear to accept.

    Thus, my speculation that it's all a knee jerk reaction rather than anyuthing based in real numbers or credible expectations.

  121. Re:Good. by TheSync · · Score: 1

    California's K-12 has been gutted by repeated budget cuts

    Spending can vary greatly by area. LAUSD spends $25,208 per student.

    For CA Statewide K-12, "Total per-pupil expenditures from all sources are projected to be $10,610 in 2011-12 and $11,246 in 2012-13".

  122. Re:Good. by bhiestand · · Score: 1

    California's K-12 has been gutted by repeated budget cuts

    Spending can vary greatly by area. LAUSD spends $25,208 per student.

    For CA Statewide K-12, "Total per-pupil expenditures from all sources are projected to be $10,610 in 2011-12 and $11,246 in 2012-13".

    There are indeed huge variances by region. Districts with higher costs of living, high growth (necessitating new construction), and more special needs students will have higher per pupil costs.

    But always be careful when citing CATO, they're not exactly...rigorous... in their methodology. See this EPIC review of CATO's per-pupil claims. And I quote: "The report presents large “real” costs per pupil. However, the spending numbers calculated for the report actually double count, adding in both capital construction and debt service. The use of flawed data renders the report to be of limited value in policymaking." (emphasis added).

    I would provide my own analysis of the LAUSD claims, but the CATO report failed to properly cite its sources (it actually indicated an incorrect page number) and methodology. Per the review I am citing, another group was able to nearly replicate the CATO result by double-counting capital construction and debt services (which the author compares to adding the purchase price of a house plus the mortgage payments).

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    SWM seeks new sig for a brief fling