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Is Technology Eroding Employment?

First time accepted submitter Idontpostmuch writes "The idea that technology cannot cause unemployment has long been taken as a simple fact of economics. Lately, some economists have been changing their tune. MIT research scientist Andrew Mcaffee writes, 'As computers and robots get more and more powerful while simultaneously getting cheaper and more widespread this phenomenon spreads, to the point where economically rational employers prefer buying more technology over hiring more workers. In other words, they prefer capital over labor. This preference affects both wages and job volumes. And the situation will only accelerate as robots and computers learn to do more and more, and to take over jobs that we currently think of not as "routine," but as requiring a lot of skill and/or education.'" Note: Certainly not all economists agree "that technology cannot cause unemployment," especially in the short term. From a certain perspective, displacing labor is a, if not the, central advantage of technology in general.

82 of 544 comments (clear)

  1. Pay Us more! by Tobenisstinky · · Score: 3, Funny

    Pay those whom support the technology exorbitantly , and we'll buy big houses and hire gardeners, maids, butlers etc. Problem solved.

    --
    wha'? where am i?
    1. Re:Pay Us more! by PPH · · Score: 4, Funny

      we'll buy big houses and hire gardeners, maids, butlers etc.

      Robot maids, butlers, gardeners, etc.

      OTOH, my wife refuses to replace the pool boy.

      --
      Have gnu, will travel.
    2. Re:Pay Us more! by jdray · · Score: 2, Insightful

      Frankly, technology is a much safer bet than human capital. Capital tends to have a fixed investment base with a relatively well-known maintenance schedule. Labor, on the other hand, is fraught with pitfalls: changing laws, rising insurance costs, performance variances. Not to mention, it's rare that machinery gets poached by your competition.

      Creativity is the area that machines will suck at for the foreseeable future. Anyone in manufacturing should start looking toward a career in process design instead.

      I may sound callous with this, but those with the money (certainly not me) only care about growing the money with as much guarantee as they can. The rest is annoying details. Given their position, it's unlikely you can say with certainty that you'd act any differently.

      --
      The Spoon
      Updated 6/28/2011
    3. Re:Pay Us more! by Billly+Gates · · Score: 2

      I was being sarcastic as I am annoyed at the attitude of cost center if it is an investment central to the business. That is dumb and while it looks good on spreadsheets which do not measure opportunity costs and other things unmeasurable, they have consequences long term.

      Not everyone is an engineer. 10 years ago I had a choice to be an engineer and people on slashdot advised me to persue something else as Indians would have all these jobs by now. BIG MISTAKE.

      People can't see the future.

      I think being a business owner is the only way to make money in this new economy. There is the few owners who are rich and a few middle who got in earlier before 2001. AND A TON scrapping and waging wars with each other and who can work for the cheapest and cost accountants gleaming at the lower costs each year. I was looking for a 2nd job at a FED EX center for the holidays.

      In 1991 they paid $20/hr. Today they pay $8/hr. What the hell?! But why charge that? There are so many college grads working these jobs today and people who are desperate they can simply pay less.

      I guess find a niche and try to do everything yourself. You never win working for someone else.

    4. Re:Pay Us more! by VortexCortex · · Score: 3, Funny

      Robot maids, butlers, gardeners, etc.

      OTOH, my wife refuses to replace the pool boy.

      She just hasn't seen all of the attachments new robotic pool boys can have.

    5. Re:Pay Us more! by SunTzuWarmaster · · Score: 4, Funny

      A handsome young Cyborg named Ace,
      Wooed women at every base,
      But once ladies glanced at
      His special enhancement
      They vanished with nary a trace.

      -- Barracks Graffiti,
      Sparta Command

  2. Modern Luddites by Kergan · · Score: 4, Insightful

    This debate occurred in the 19th century. It's over. The answer is a resounding no. As in not at at all. Forget it. Give it up.

    The only rational questions in the foreseeable future are whether or not we should reduce the work week's duration and increase paid vacation time.

    1. Re:Modern Luddites by codepigeon · · Score: 4, Insightful

      "whether or not we should reduce the work week's duration and increase paid vacation time"

      That is such a ridiculous statement. Oh yes, my work week will be shortened; along with my paycheck.

      What fantasy land do you live in where corporations value the happiness of their employees? Or to be more blunt, openly willing to spend more on paid vacation time? It took unions to get fair pay for workers and look what is happening to them. Do you honestly think a company will waste profits on its employees without being forced to?

    2. Re:Modern Luddites by Hatta · · Score: 5, Insightful

      Sure, it didn't happen with the first significant efficiency gain, but what of future gains? Yes, if the labor of one man can support the lives of 10 men, we can find something for the 9 other men to do. What happens when that ratio changes to 1 in 100? 1,000? Do you really think we can extrapolate from the industrial revolution to future where the vast majority of economic activity is automated?

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    3. Re:Modern Luddites by lgw · · Score: 2

      That's pretty much it.

      Already a very small percentage of people in developed nations are what Marx considered the working class: farmers, manufacturing workers, and soldiers. In my lifetime I expect those specific jobs to have all-but-vanished. That's not a bad thing! Technology is what makes it more efficient to produce a good or service: less labor, less energy, etc. All good stuff.

      Why does anyone need employment in the first place? Both to produce all the good and services needed and wanted by society, and to give the all-important feeling of earning what we have (seriously, society collapses without that). So the solution is as Kergan mentioned above: we just need to be OK with working fewer hours.

      The culture of working 60 hours to out-status-symbol your neighbor is the cause of unemployment in the high-tech world. No one should get a free ride either (except the truely diabled, whose ride I somehow can't think of as free). When the problem is half the people working annoyingly long hours and the other half unemployed, the solution is pretty plain.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    4. Re:Modern Luddites by tmosley · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Consider the fact that your government confiscates ever greater amounts of your pay and savings via inflation. There is a reason that real income peaked while hours worked per family bottomed in 1971.

      The sad truth is that you are competing for scarce goods with money that has been stolen from you and given to mostly non-productive workers (think bankers, politicians, and their cronies).

    5. Re:Modern Luddites by Synerg1y · · Score: 5, Interesting

      Funny thing is, the industrial revolution created most of the jobs we're now trying to automate.

    6. Re:Modern Luddites by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

      What fantasy land do you live in where corporations value the happiness of their employees? Or to be more blunt, openly willing to spend more on paid vacation time?

      Europe

    7. Re:Modern Luddites by Hatta · · Score: 2

      Yes, people who operate machines would not have jobs without the machines. But when the machines are replaced by robots that do not need operators, what are they to do? If you re-employ all of them to maintain the robots you haven't really gained anything.

      --
      Give me Classic Slashdot or give me death!
    8. Re:Modern Luddites by Twinbee · · Score: 4, Interesting

      I've said before, it would be a great experiment to force a state or two in the US to switch to 5 work hours a day (or 3 days a week instead of 5). I bet the overall happiness of the people in that state would multiply, without much detriment if any to their economy.

      --
      Why OpalCalc is the best Windows calc
    9. Re:Modern Luddites by dywolf · · Score: 4, Insightful

      A Resounding No?
      Disagree.

      Depending on the machine you can replace between 1 and 20 (lets say) workers. So those 1 to 20 people at Company A are now without job. They now have to find new employment in some fashion, which means learning a new job, something that not everyone is able (age, competency) or willing to do (lazy, screw them). That new job could be the caretaker for the new machines. Either way, Company A now has fewer workers. Another option for the workers is to go work for Company B, the maker of the machines. They need salesmen, engineers, and factory workers, sure. And some of the workers can go there.

      But it's still generally a sloping plot trending to smaller numbers.

      If there are 20 displaced workers in one place from the new technology, not all 20 of them will find new work revolving around the new tech. And it's a viscious or self-enforcing cycle. Sometimes the tech is made because there arent enough workers or the workers are limited in capability (cant work 24 hours a day, etc). Sometimes the tech works in place with workers, symbiotically, sometimes it totally replaces them.

      It's not a given that technology has no effect on unemployment, but it's not a given that it does either.
      It depends on the industry, on the tech, and on the workers.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    10. Re:Modern Luddites by readin · · Score: 4, Interesting

      In the 19 century, much manual work was replaced, but the human mind was still required for many tasks - including much factory and farm labor. But is every single human being employable? Is every single human being capable of contributing more to the economy than they demand in food, clothing, housing, waste disposal, etc.?

      There are some people who clearly aren't. A comatose patient of course does not contribute. What about paralyzed person who isn't smart enough to do any mental work (at least not any that couldn't be performed more cheaply by a computer)? As computers become more and more sophisticated, we'll be able to move more and more people into the "can't pull their own weight when compared to a computer" category.

      We already know machines can outperform humans at most jobs that require strength. If the process is repetitive then the machines don't even need operators. For delicate work we also find that machines outperform humans. Basically physical labor is no longer needed from humans except when combined with a need for human intelligence or artistry What happens when computers are able to out-think humans? I haven't an artistic bone in my body and mass media has made it so we don't need many artists anyway. What happens when even artistry is done better by computers?

      --
      I often don't like the choices people make, but I like the fact that people make choices. That's why I'm a conservative.
    11. Re:Modern Luddites by dywolf · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I dont work for the feeling of earning what I have.
      I work for money. Because I need money. To buy things like clothes, food, pay rent.
      If I didnt I would have to spend all my time creating all those things myself.

      I dont know who taught you that rubbish, but he needs slapped.
      I dont know if you noticed or not, but subsistance living is hard, and sucks by and large compared to modern society.

      --
      The guy who said the election was rigged won the presidency with the second-most votes.
    12. Re:Modern Luddites by demonlapin · · Score: 2

      The problem is that the bottom of the barrel can't do much that's useful, and those who are capable of being useful are so darned useful that they get paid - a lot. And they aren't going to resist the temptation to add 50% to their income by working longer hours.

      You see this all over the place in health care (my industry), although there the licensure requirements help limit the supply. Plenty of healthcare workers work two or even three jobs, entirely voluntarily, and not just because they can't get enough hours at one of them (though that sometimes happens too).

    13. Re:Modern Luddites by poity · · Score: 4, Insightful

      I'll bet many of them would be happier simply because then they could get a 2nd job and make 40% more income by continuing to work 8-10 hours a day, since 1) they're used to working that much, and 2) enjoyment of free time is dependent on quality rather than quantity (would you mope around for an extra 4 hours a day, or spend the weekend on your new boat?).

      --
      your thin skin doesn't make me a troll
    14. Re:Modern Luddites by Mitreya · · Score: 2

      Consider the fact that your government confiscates ever greater amounts of your pay and savings via inflation. There is a reason that real income peaked while hours worked per family bottomed in 1971.

      I do not believe that inflation has been particularly notable in United States. United States is number 35 right before France and Canada. Unless you can demonstrate that other countries do not suffer from similar inflation, I do not see your point

      Everyone is subject to inflation, but in some places average salary is adjusted to compensate for that fact. Apparently, it hasn't been the case in US for the last few decades.

    15. Re:Modern Luddites by reve_etrange · · Score: 4, Insightful

      The conclusion is probably going to be the detachment of income from labor.

      Progress is bad for us right now precisely because we allow workers who have been displaced by technology to starve (or nearly so). We should try and alter our economy so that increased efficiency actually benefits society.

      --
      .: Semper Absurda :.
    16. Re:Modern Luddites by reve_etrange · · Score: 2

      This is why I think we will eventually (be forced to) detach income from labor.

      --
      .: Semper Absurda :.
    17. Re:Modern Luddites by reve_etrange · · Score: 2

      Why does anyone need employment in the first place?

      Because we basically let the jobless starve. Eventually technological progress will force the separation of income from labor (at least to an extent).

      --
      .: Semper Absurda :.
    18. Re:Modern Luddites by Vaphell · · Score: 3, Informative

      wtf? tell that to the Weimar Republic or Zimbabwe
      when govt/central bankers conjure money out of thin air, they transfer a chunk of purchasing power distributed among the existing money to that new pool. They had nothing before, now they have some purchasing power to spend. Magic? If you keep it simple, taxation is about transfering purchasing power to the govt and both legit taxation and inflation fulfill these criteria.
      Actions of govt bodies have nothing to do with supply and demand and everything to do with central planning.

    19. Re:Modern Luddites by Vaphell · · Score: 2

      even in best case scenario (which doesn't happen) i'd prefer 0% inflation and 0% raise than 5%/5%, thank you very much.
      Prices rise more or less smoothly while your wage graph looks like stairs. The difference between those 2 functions is not 0 and you lose at all these small triangles between stair step (your wage) and smooth, more or less linear envelope of that stair (prices)

    20. Re:Modern Luddites by UnknownSoldier · · Score: 2

      That's actually a pretty brilliant insight. I've come to the same conclusion I believe via a different path but was never able to succinctly summarize like you have. Very nice!

      My thought process was this ... There are a few levels to understand money ...

      1. The actual things themselves of worth were exchanged (barter)
      2. A token was exchanged instead (money) due to finer granularity and convenience
      3. Money represents time and knowledge. i.e. You pay contractors to build you a house because you have more money then time/knowledge. Some people have more time/knowledge then money so there is the DIY group.
      4. Money ultimately represents an exchange of energy, because that is what it is really is.

      What will eventually happen when we discover free energy? It means everyone will effectively be rich.

      It means it would be possible to rely on machines 100% to provide the basics -- food, water, shelter. We are already on this path as our tech level increases where people no longer need to dehumanizing jobs such as assembly work. Why also can't we have robots to clean places instead of wasting a human mind on such meaningless cleanup work?

      I predict Creativity itself becomes the token of value! You want a particular new widget because you have never seen one like it before. The people who create new things are the ones who are valued. The fashion industry is already proceeding along this path -- they were forced to because of lack of copyright.

      What was your thought process?

    21. Re:Modern Luddites by UnknownSoldier · · Score: 2

      I know, YHBT, but ...

      So all those "primitive" tribes in Africa have no food, shelter, etc?

      One does NOT need "money" to live on this planet. It just happens to be an _extremely_ convenient form of artificial wealth and way to exchange goods.

    22. Re:Modern Luddites by ultranova · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Who is going to pay for the goods and services at the burger flipping place?

      No one, so it will close down. After all, it provided services to a class that's now useless. In the end, only the factories that provide luxury goods for the rich will be left operating; the rest of us will starve to death or, in the absolute best case, be treated as cattle and provided the basic necessities as charity by whatever echoes of conscience might remain in the necrotic souls of some of the owning class.

      It doesn't have to go this way, of course, but having it go another way requires changing our economic system. It's not even capitalism that's the problem, but the very idea that you should work for a living - it simply doesn't work when paired off with increasing automation. Already we have persistent unemployment because we simply don't require as much human labour as can be supplied by everyone doing full work week.

      I suggest we start reducing working hours per week, while keeping the hourly wage intact and compensating by paying a monthly "citizenship pay". This is to give various businesses an incentive to further automate their functions, thus cutting the need for human labour ever more. At the same time, our schools should shift their focus to philosophy, art, history, all the so-called "soft" subjects necessary for people who'll be spending most of their time without any pressing external needs. But of course they shouldn't forget the "hard" sciences either, and indeed since we'll be having a very large pool of otherwise idle people, it should be easy to recruit far more teachers per class, increasing the quality of education in all subjects.

      --

      Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

    23. Re:Modern Luddites by lgw · · Score: 2

      I'm not sure why you went off on a rant about subsistance living and making everything yourself? It takes very little work in a modern, developed nation to afford enough food not to starve, and enough clothing shelter to not die of exposure - most places you can get that for free, if you're needy. That wasn't true even 100 years ago. Technology is neat.

      Theres been a vast shift to automation in manufacturing, especially in the past 20 years, and we need fewer manufacturing workers every decade. Farming will always be hard work, but the number of people fed per farmer is huge and increasing. Large standing armies are a thing of the past. Technology is neat.

      The basic stuff of survival, which used to require 90+% of everyone in society to make, now requires less than 9%, and that number will keep shrinking. So why do we have a society and economic system where people must have jobs? Why do you have to work for money, if robots can make all the basics so very cheaply? Technology is neat, but it doesn't solve the problem of who gets what, nor fill the very real need to feel that you've earned what you have.

      --
      Socialism: a lie told by totalitarians and believed by fools.
    24. Re:Modern Luddites by Kergan · · Score: 2

      The interesting thing would be adjusting it so that pay wasn't impacted (from 40 to 20 hours, but double minimum wage at the same time to compensate). I'm sure 5% of small companies would immediately close their doors and complain it was the labor costs, even if it wasn't. The *only* ones working on margins so thin it would seriously affect them are the hotels, and they'd all be hit equally such that they'd all raise prices together.

      What you're describing is, incidentally, precisely what occurred in France when they reduced the work week to 35 hours. It went from 38 to 35 with no pay loss, some companies shut their doors blabber mouthing that it was due to higher wagers, and hotels did indeed increase prices -- though they were far from the only ones, citing the same reason.

    25. Re:Modern Luddites by tmosley · · Score: 2

      So anonymous thinks he can do the same thing as those guys and get a different result. This is the insanity of central bankers.

    26. Re:Modern Luddites by Evtim · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Bull! (resident of NL here)

      The Netherlands is sliding at an ever accelerating rate towards inhuman capitalism a la USA. In the last 5 years the average salary increase for 85% of all employees was less than the official inflation which is, as usual, significantly lower than the real inflation.

      Vast portion of the employers used the crisis to get rid of people and keep wages down even if the crisis did not affect their businesses. The national pride of the NL - the "polder model" is declared dead because it cannot generate enough profit. Only.....it does generate huge profit but it is hidden in the form of content workers, decent relations at the working place, calm and polite society, general happiness and wealth. But it does not generate profits for the 1% comparable to those in inhuman capitalist societies, only the governments of lately are listening with the two ears to the 1% only.

      The Medical system has become utter crap, they made me an invalid due to negligence which was due to the doctors being pressured to give the cheapest treatment. 5 years later I am forced to go private and pay handsomely while at the same time I am forced to keep paying the insurance system.

      The trains have become crap after the company was privatized. They are now "profitable" by no delivering millions of people on time to work every day. So they cost billions to the country in order to make millions of profits. What is the government doing - they craft financial mechanisms to force people to move close to their work, so that we do not have to rely so heavily on the railroads.

      The list goes forever.....I came from a former communist state to witness the self-destruction of the so-called free world. Check when the west started sliding to good old "shot the strikers" days of capitalism. Yhea, when the wall collapsed. NO need to pretend anymore that the little person matters. No fear from workers revolution - this is "red" and it failed , right? The last straw - the feudal masters managed to convince the people that it is again those former red countries that are guilty for it all (took our jobs, fucking immigrants). Whereas the workers in the west instead of believing this shit should thank us for living in hell so that their fathers and grandfathers could have decent life......

    27. Re:Modern Luddites by tehcyder · · Score: 2

      All corporate theft is enabled by the government, as corporations are implicit creations of governments, and are given special privileges by them.

      Corporations are explicit creations of capitalists/capitalism. The free market decided that it would be much easier to raise capital by creating limited liability companies that you could buy shares in (and thus finance business) without risking your whole life savings if something went wrong.

      I suppose you could call the legal and social framework necessary to support this idea "the government" but it's not really very helpful.

      I sense that you are coming from the libertarian direction, where everything that involves the government is bad, and nothing that is bad is in any way the necessary result of free market capitalism.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
    28. Re:Modern Luddites by tehcyder · · Score: 3, Interesting

      I came from a former communist state to witness the self-destruction of the so-called free world. Check when the west started sliding to good old "shot the strikers" days of capitalism. Yhea, when the wall collapsed. NO need to pretend anymore that the little person matters. No fear from workers revolution - this is "red" and it failed , right?

      That is very interesting. While there was the old West/East divide, the West had to keep making concessions to democracy and the rights of the majority in order to maintain the moral highground over the East.

      Now the divide has gone, it's all a race to the bottom.

      --
      To have a right to do a thing is not at all the same as to be right in doing it
  3. No, the government's Cthulhu-esque devouring. . . by smittyoneeach · · Score: 2

    . . .is what's eroding employment.

    --
    Get thee glass eyes, and, like a scurvy politician, seem to see things thou dost not.--King Lear
  4. Human beings are not special... by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 4, Insightful

    ... sooner or later we're going to have to deal with the fact that humans are just machines made of meat that were designed for no specific purpose besides propagate genes/have kids. Whereas robots/AI can be specialized to a particular task and all the energy/resources dedicated to full specialization and be safely chucked/destroyed/replaced when new models come online. This will easily make huge swaths of humanity redundant/unemployable and everyone who believes that humans have an infinite employment landscape are idiots. We already have technological unemployment NOW we just haven't noticed it because we moved on to other "low hanging fruit" of work that only humans could perform, but that low hanging fruit is going to be gone sooner or later.

    1. Re:Human beings are not special... by Time_Ngler · · Score: 2

      Where do you think all these desires besides breeding are for?

      I believe that is complex behavior that evolved to ensure your genes are passed on and nothing more. This instinct to care about other people can be explained in that we used to live in tribes and each tribe member would share a lot of genes with other tribe members. So the survival of the tribe propagates your genes even if you don't happen to survive. The fact that you care about the whole world is just the result of your instinctual desires being thrown into an environment they were not designed for. Same as a person's body killing itself by overreacting to a foreign invader. In the past, there were no doctors that could heal you, and it was all up to the body itself. So nearly killing itself in order to fight back the invader, (and sometimes going overboard), worked better than keeping it's defenses toned down and hoping for some outside influence, although that is not true today.

      In addition, all the other thoughts not explained by the above could be just novel, unexpected consequences of the interaction of the very many systems of the complex machine that is your human body, your immediate neighbors and society in general.

      If it's not the above, that what is it? Do you believe that God came down and gave people feelings?

  5. Player Piano by schneidafunk · · Score: 3, Informative

    This reminds of 'player piano' by Kurt Vonnegut. It was his first book published and one of the best.

    --
    Some people die at 25 and aren't buried until 75. -Benjamin Franklin
  6. What Moron Thinks That? by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 3, Insightful

    What utter moron thinks that technology can't cause unemployment. Throughout history, technology has repeatedly caused unemployment. Fortunately, in the past, other positions opened and there was some balance. However, as this article is showing, the imbalance is growing as it is tipping towards more rapid technology growth and other positions not opening fast enough to compensate for the losses.

    What we are seeing today is technology creating permanent unemployment. Cue the experts stating how clueless I am.

  7. Re:Is Technology Eroding Employment? by PPH · · Score: 4, Funny

    No.

    [Posted by the Betteridge autobot.]

    --
    Have gnu, will travel.
  8. Re:The sane option... by TechyImmigrant · · Score: 2

    >pick a job in which you can't be replaced by a computer.
    Like designing computers.

    --
    I should use this sig to advertise my book ISBN-13 : 978-1501515132.
  9. Re:It's cuasing labor to have to be higher-qualifi by queazocotal · · Score: 4, Insightful

    You're assuming a whole bunch of things in that.
    Primarily that the number of people needed to service the machine is equal to the number of staff replaced.
    This seems at best extremely questionable.

    Secondly - half of people are not as smart as the average.
    They are unlikely to be able to get employment designing robots, or ...

  10. Politicians have it wrong.... by mcnster · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Instead of facilitating full employment with calls of "jobs, jobs, jobs!", the goal should be 100% total UNemployment using technology (specifically self-repairing robots or "cybermation"). A very low percentage of humans (say, 1% of the world population) can act as overseers on rotating teams of volunteers who do the remaining creative and design work that AI-guided machines cannot. The rest of the population can take the day off to pursue their own interests....

    1. Re:Politicians have it wrong.... by Maximum+Prophet · · Score: 3, Interesting

      Many science fiction authors has said "If this continues..." and studied what would happen if automation took all the jobs. Some are utopian and some are distopian.

      Interestingly, the economist Paul Krugman was influenced by an early Heinlein story about a goverment that had to actually destroy wealth in order to keep the economy flowing.

      The trick for individuals is to survive the transition from a work based economy to an automated economy. I suspect that wealth will flow to people who own land and things, as there is less and less oportunity to create.

      Alternately, the RIAA, MPAA, and **AA, will take over, buy the elections, and we'll all be slaves to the managers that control the creative class.

      --
      All ideas^H^H^H^H^Hprocesses in this post are Patent Pending. (as well as the process of patenting all postings)
    2. Re:Politicians have it wrong.... by DahGhostfacedFiddlah · · Score: 5, Interesting

      The last time this topic came up, someone posted a link to the short story Manna. I found it well worth the read.

      The story explores two vastly different ways of greeting a near-total automation of labour.

  11. Of course it is ... by gstoddart · · Score: 5, Insightful

    We have an article still on the front page in which Eric Schmidt of Google is saying we're going to have to compete with robots for our jobs.

    Globalization is trying to move everything to the cheapest possible labor source, and robots and technology is next in line. Sure, your startup costs are high, but your robot won't need to take the day off because its kid is home sick.

    --
    Lost at C:>. Found at C.
    1. Re:Of course it is ... by Zeromous · · Score: 2

      One has to admit, it makes sense- to a point. At some point the robots burn out too, whether by burn-out or by arson. It really doesn't matter. There is always a tipping point.

      Life the universe and everything is riding a pendulum.

      --
      ---Up Up Down Down Left Right Left Right B A START
  12. I'm with the economists who disagree ... by King_TJ · · Score: 4, Insightful

    I can't help but notice that as of late, MIT has a *load* of content coming out of the place revolving around the general concept of automation displacing humans. I think they're, perhaps, a little too fixated on it to look at the big picture clearly? (Don't get me wrong. I think MIT is doing a lot of excellent research work - and they're on the cutting edge month after month with interesting tech. developments. I just see how they'd get sucked into the "robots will displace us" idea in the midst of all of that.)

    The bottom line is, humans are social creatures. There's WAY too much that gets lost when you get close to full automation of any business. The workplace isn't only about the work that's done. You're still selling your services or products to other human beings on the opposite end of the chain, and they want to interact with other people. At best, artificial intelligence is still just that; "faking it". Maybe, *maybe* we'll eventually reach a point where a robot can think, reason and interact with humans to the point where it's effectively the same as another person. But it's far too early to suggest that will be the case in any of our lifetimes.

    What you do (and will continue) to see is automation replacing any workplace roles where humans act like "artificial robots", performing repetitive manual tasks that don't require any real thought. That still amounts to only a certain percentage of the work at hand in any given factory, and if it helps make production more profitable, it leads to more factories being built, who employ humans in all of the roles that aren't just assembly-related on the production floor. (And yes, it also creates a few more jobs for people who do repair, sales of and setup of those robots and machines.)

    1. Re:I'm with the economists who disagree ... by Time_Ngler · · Score: 2

      Let's look at another creature who used to be a large part of the economy but who's numbers have dwindled to nearly nothing, the horse. Technology has created machines that were able to replace nearly all that a horse could do, ie. farming, transportation, warfare. The few remaining jobs, being a pet, used for the pastime of horse back riding were not enough to employ all the horses, so they were mostly killed and not allowed to breed.

      Human's still have some abilities that cannot be replicated by technology, but these will, I believe, eventually be replaced as well. You can say a robot can't be all lovely dovey and social and all that, and you'd never make a robot your friend, but you're looking at robots of today. Just like the cool kids in the 70's would look at computers at the time and think they were and always will be just used by nerds. Also, just because you'd never befriend a robot, or tolerate being served by a robot, doesn't mean the future generations won't. I'm sure there were some hold outs who refused to buy an automobile and kept their horse and buggy until the day they died, if you did the same with robots, it would make no difference.

      The only difference I see between horses and the common man is that he or she can vote. So if there became to be no more work that most humans were qualified for, a safety net could be voted in to support them. This should work for awhile, but eventually as the military forces becomes more machine than man, until totally being machine, and the people holding the reigns on them become fewer and fewer, the power of the vote will become less and less. People that speak out against the system will be rounded up and disappeared'ed, your representatives will completely ignore the will of the people, etc. One day the vote will become a complete charade, or a coup will occur, and the population of people will be forced to dwindle to near nothing, along side the horses of the past, once a great beast but now completely dependent on and subservient to the whims of a technological being more advanced then us.

    2. Re:I'm with the economists who disagree ... by GameboyRMH · · Score: 2

      We already use automated checkouts, vending machines, and shop online. It's faster and cheaper. And do you think people would pay the overhead of even minimum-wage social interaction? Commercial empires have fallen over less.

      --
      "When information is power, privacy is freedom" - Jah-Wren Ryel
  13. it's already happened... by DrEasy · · Score: 5, Informative

    Look no further than in agriculture. Just a century ago, what percentage of people used to work in the farms? What's that percentage now? People then moved into the manufacturing industries, but work there has also been replaced by machines to a great extent, and cheaper labor in other countries.

    It doesn't take a lot of human labor to fulfill our basic needs anymore, and so people have been trying to create needs we didn't think we had. This is why so much rides on advertisement these days. Is there a point where the incremental improvement in our comfort is no longer worth the money we'd spend to get it? That's when we'll probably face major unemployment issues...

    --
    "In our tactical decisions, we are operating contrary to our strategic interest."
  14. Re:It's cuasing labor to have to be higher-qualifi by jaweekes · · Score: 5, Insightful

    The problem is that those people are only employed for a short time in respect to each machine.

    For example: 2 assembly line workera are employed for 40 hrs / 50 wks a year at $6/hr = $12,000 / yr * 2 = $24,000. A robot can be built for $48,000 with $6,000 / yr maintenance. Over 3 years the robot has paid for itself. It only employed a design engineer for 4 weeks to design it, a crew of 2 for 1 week to build it and on average one tech for at most 1 week to maintain it.

    The robot company needs to sell 50 robots to keep everyone working all the time, so that's 100 line workers it can replace while only employing 4 people plus a few support staff.

    I call that a net loss.

    I've been in manufacturing for years and have seen it happen too many times. It's not new but a fact of life. As an IT guy I've personally created systems that have replaced 10 people without spending anything other then 3 months of my time, simply by automating data entry. Doing that saved a company from going under, but that's 10 people that will not be rehired.

    Employment is down because of technology. Systems are getting better, more complex and more reliable, so the trend will only increase.

  15. Depending on how things turn out... by one+eyed+kangaroo · · Score: 2

    ...this is either the start of the post-scarcity future so cleverly portrayed by Ian M Banks in his Culture novels. In this future we are freed from the need to work and instead choose to work, and play.

    ...or it's the start of a dystopian future forshadowed in Kevin Warick's "In the Mind of the Machine". Chapter 2 of that book is still the most horrible account of our near-term future I have read anywhere. In it humans are bred in conditions like contemporary chicken farms, kept for their labour, and are lucky to live past 30. Very unpleasant.

    I'm hoping for the Banksian future ;-)

  16. Wasn't that supposed to be the *point*? by AdamWill · · Score: 4, Interesting

    Wasn't eroding employment supposed to be the *point* of technology? The biggest problem with this debate seems to be that everyone is assuming a lack of employment is a _bad_ thing.

    If we can, at a relatively trivial cost, build machines to replace all menial drudgery, why is this a problem? Isn't it The Glorious Future?

    We need to adjust our social, economic and political systems for the new reality, of course, but that's hardly impossible. It's not like we haven't changed them before. 150 years ago domestic service was one of the largest employment categories and only those who employed the domestics got the vote, after all. (Thinking of the U.K. here).

    Hell, looked at from a certain perspective, we're already halfway *through* this change. 150 years ago a large majority of the population of any 'civilized' country had to work - whether actual paid employment, or some form of domestic labour - probably 72+ hours a week to give the country as a whole a standard of living quite a long way below what we enjoy today. I know there are still substantial numbers of people in some 'civilized' countries who have to work two jobs to keep the wolf from the door, but still, there's a hell of a lot more people who get by perfectly well on 40 hour working weeks and then don't have to hand wash their clothes or dishes when they get home.

    Look at it that way and technology has _already_ reduced the amount of actual labour humans have to do by, say, 50%, and the world does not appear to have ended. What's terrible about getting rid of the other 50%?

  17. Managers will be replaces by mangu · · Score: 2, Interesting

    Until today, corporations are ruled by managers who are good at manipulating people. The CEO is the guy who has the ability to get a lot of people working together to reach a goal.

    In the future, when more and more things are done by machines, people skills will not matter.

    The rulers of the future will be people who are good at manipulating machines, they will be programmers.

    1. Re:Managers will be replaces by CosaNostra+Pizza+Inc · · Score: 5, Insightful

      The rulers of the future will be people who are good at manipulating machines, they will be programmers.

      No. It will still be the managers who manipulate the people who manipulate the machines.

    2. Re:Managers will be replaces by rickb928 · · Score: 3, Insightful

      Exactly. In fact, having fewer people to manage may well make management skills even more valuable. It's one thing to annoy one out of 13,000 employees, and risk losing key skills or exprience. When the pool is smaller, then annoying one out of 3,000 makes the risk greater. And every one of those fewer employees may well be much more valuable than the math indicates.

      --
      deleting the extra space after periods so i can stay relevant, yeah.
  18. Re:The sane option... by slew · · Score: 2

    Factory worker... what could possibly go wrong there?

    I guess we'll find out soon enough...

  19. This time really is different. by j.+andrew+rogers · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Once upon a time, people generated most of their value with their muscles. When machines replaced muscles, people could still generate value with their brains because machines could not replace brains. So the original Luddite scenario never materialized.

    Now that machines are starting to replace brains, a growing portion of the population has a rapidly dwindling ability to generate significant economic value relative to the machines. As time passes, machines can effectively replace both the muscles and brains of more of the population.

    This is also why forcing people to work fewer hours will not help. The problem is not the number of jobs available; it is the number of people who can generate more positive value in that position relative to a machine. Eventually we will all be in the position of no longer being able to be a productive member of a modern economy; everyone believes their contribution to be indispensable until the technology catches up and it isn't.

    1. Re:This time really is different. by Anonymous Coward · · Score: 2, Interesting

      Solution to all problems:

      Mincome

      Course, that means the upper caste 1% will make slightly less money, so it's orders of magnitude more likely that Mincome will never happen, and the non-working will starve in a gutter and die. Not like it's any skin off the upper caste's back.

  20. Tech CAN Errode Employment, but not all tech... by eepok · · Score: 2

    Some tech actually erodes employment. There's no question about there. In fact, nearly any kind of system that decreases human input or actions has the specific INTENT of incurring savings through reduced human employment and increased process precision:

    --Manufacturing automation
    --Community Self-Assistance (Forums, FAQs, etc.)
    --Self-driving taxi cabs
    --Etc.

    Some tech on the other hand creates employment need. This tech usually involved the addition of a product or service to a market.

    --Cellular Telephones
    --New websites that offer services in new niches
    --Etc.

    The problem comes when business, entrepreneurs, and economic theory suggests that the first grouping is more important than the second. With that scenario, tech has a net-negative effect on employment.

    The question then arises, "What do we do when the machines are capable of doing our work?". The answer is simple, but not easy: move the general global philosophy from working for the ability to survive and progress financially to a socialistic and humanistic expectations on how one receives what s/he needs to live and how s/he spends her/his time. Yes, the "Start Trek" switch.

    Unfortunately, tech advances by the day and hour while philosophy changes by the generation... and even then only slightly.

  21. Yeah, fuck my sig by Hognoxious · · Score: 4, Funny

    The rulers of the future will be people who are good at manipulating machines, they will be programmers.

    Quis manipulet ipsos manipulens?

    --
    Confucius say, "Find worm in apple - bad. Find half a worm - worse."
  22. Been happening for hundreds of years. by raymorris · · Score: 4, Insightful

    It's not a fantasy or even a theory, it's historical fact for the last four hundred years. A guy who can run a combine harvesting tons of cotton per day makes more, and works fewer hours, than someone picking by hand. An accountant running a computer is more productive and higher paid than one with a quill pen. Assume a company was NOT willing to pay you more for programming robots than it did for assembling toasters. (Or equalivently, give you more time off.) You'd simply get a job at another company which will pay programmers operators of robots more than the assembly low workers the robots replace. The fact is, 98% of Slashdot readers earn more and get more time off than our grandparents precisely because we use the technology that replaced pur grandparents' jobs.

    1. Re:Been happening for hundreds of years. by timeOday · · Score: 4, Insightful
      The 400 year trend is not in dispute. It is the 30 year trend is more problematic: worker productivity and corporate profits have skyrocketed, while wages have fallen.

      I think there is a good reason why you referenced our grandfathers rather than our fathers. Even then your claim is dubious. My grandfather, on "just" a bachelor's degree, single-handedly supported a family, owned a home in Long Beach and a vacation cabin and a boat, and retired on an inflation-adjusted pension after only 25 years of work at a company, from which he drew for 25 years. He even owned real furniture, not this particle-board and plastic crap of today. Granted, he didn't have slashdot.

  23. Re:The sane option... by DancesWithRobots · · Score: 2

    ...pick a job in which you can't be replaced by a computer.

    Hmm. . .Well. . .how long do you figure before they let Watson loose on law libraries and medical databases?

  24. Re:And what about our feudal overlords? by TFAFalcon · · Score: 2

    Considering the complete lack of compassion or shame exhibited by most CEOs, my guess is that that's already happened. But I for one welcome our new flesh covered robot overlords.

  25. Biorobots are better by big_e_1977 · · Score: 3

    Biorobots only cost a few dollars per day to run. They require no capital to aquire as they naturally self replicating, thus there will always be a constant supply. Biorobots do not require a programmer or engineer to put on task. They are also cordless and self propelled allowing them to easily change tasks. Should a biorobot not do a task correctly a unit can be debugged by the use of a cellulose based rod, or by withholding the carbohydrate,protein, lipid, and water based energy supplies they require. Should production needs change, biorobots automatically remove themselves from the factory floor and return to the pool of available units. Biorobots are not chemically resistant. Should one malfunction due to overexposure to toxic chemicals, disposal is easily accomplished by placing the biorobot into a zippered polymer bag and disposing it as normal biohazardous waste, preferably by incineration. Grossly defective or worn out biorobots are easily dealt with by means of a lead projectile launched a high speed by expanding gasses in metal cylinder striking the biorobots central processing unit. Regular disposal procedures apply. Some biorobots may self propel themselves out of windows of the upper floors of the factory. This may be remedied by the strategic placement of nets if needed. Most factory owners have found that biorobots are color coded for their convenience. Biorobots are expected to remain a vital role in industrial production due to their cheapness, versatility and disposability.

  26. The iron law of wages by Animats · · Score: 5, Interesting

    We're seeing the return of the Iron Law of Wages: real wages always tend, in the long run, toward the minimum wage necessary to sustain the life of the worker. That had been the case for most of history. For most of the 20th century, the Iron Law of Wages was viewed by economists as being obsolete. That may have just been a historical anomaly in capitalism. The period during which wages substantially exceeded survival level in the US was the period in which labor unions had enough power to push wages up. That's over.

    "Machines should think, people should work". Humans just do the dumb manipulation jobs that still cost more to do with robots. Kiva Robotics video: "Training for a human picker on the system takes a minute or so." The end result is that most new jobs pay about $10.25 per hour. It's now cheaper to put the smarts in the software rather than train skilled workers. Computers are so cheap, and copying software is even cheaper.

    As retail goes online, whole sectors of the economy disappear, buildings go vacant, and jobs go away forever. One (1) new indoor mall has been built in the US in the last decade. (We don't count the New Jersey Meadowlands debacle; they're not open after a decade and the roof collapsed.) Many, many malls are dead. First, order processing and payment went online. Then warehouse operation and order fulfillment. Ordered from Staples, the Gap, Walgreens, Saks Fifth Avenue, Toys "R" Us, Follett, Timberland, Diapers.com, or Dillard's? Mobile robots did most of the work. Amazon just bought Kiva Robotics. Coming up next, Google same-day delivery service. (Not with automatic truck driving. Yet.)

    We have an economic system which optimizes for lowest costs, including labor costs. It's working as designed. Do you want fries with that?

  27. byut who? by geekoid · · Score: 2

    "The idea that technology cannot cause unemployment has long been taken as a simple fact of economics"
    By who? it has clearly eroded employment. The only people saying that where corporate factory owners.
    If technology produced more jobs then it replaced, then we really wouldn't need it.

    Lets loko at some clasicc examples.
    Garment industry. The first automated garment company produced for more product with fewer people need per hour, including the people keeping the automation system running. And this was pre-computer.
    The number of people it took to build and maintain robotic auto systems has always been for lower then the people it replaces.

    I right reports that can be generated in seconds that would have required 5 people 3 months to do.

    I was on a team of 50 people that wrote some very sophisticated loan automation software that replaced over 1000 positions over a period of 2 years.

    This is happening all over the world. What do you think will happen when robot appear to reliable do menial tasks? when fastfood places start replacing employees with 'robots'? Million will be out of work. Do you think it will take millions to build robots?

    And when automated system write software? when robots repair other robots?

    The real question is: How wisely are we willing to mvoe economically?

    If you just replace people and leave then on there own in an environment where most jobs can be done better by machines, you will have riots, starvation, war. So what do you do? ONly let people own one robot and chose to work themselves, or hire out the robot? Do you have the government own the robots and pay people a monthly stipend*? Tax the work robots do, and divy that up among all the people?

    Now, the price will come down,and efficiency will go up dramatically. And we will most likely have the technology to replace the people in these systems that would screw them up.

    And eventually computers and robots will be able to make what you want on demand, including exotic features.
    Could we become like the people in Wally?

    The only thing of value will be land. So do we pay people with land?

    *yes communism, but with out the pesky problem that a person will do less work for the same pay. I argue this is the only way communism can thrive without having to use force.

    --
    The Kruger Dunning explains most post on /. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect
  28. Re:The sane option... by anubi · · Score: 5, Insightful

    I think you got it. Machines will end up with all the dreary drudgery repetitive mindless work which supports our infrastructure. This was done by the "proletariat" of old days, leaving the enjoyment of the efforts of their labor to the bourgeoisie.

    The machines become the proletariat, producing our food, making our things, cleaning up after us, getting rid of our trash. We just tell the men who design the machines anything we desire, and those of us proficient in machinery describe to CAD machines the instructions for making it.

    This opens up a whole new realm of leisure for us. We get to spend our days socializing and doing pleasant things, hopefully enjoying what few days our biological systems are designed to last.

    Being I just came off the flu ( a four-roll special, if measured in spools of toilet paper ), I for one was very thankful for the comforts of electric blankets, flush toilets, and machines which toiled through the night making cans of chicken soup and rolls of TP.

    I can guiltlessly assign work to a machine I would have a hard time justifying I ask a living, breathing, feeling human being to do. I would not even ask an animal to do it. I see all sorts of stuff in history books ( and the Bible ) of people being required to perform all sorts of unthinkable labors, of which they reaped no benefit. Being I am in technology myself - and deal regularly with embedded processing - it is my goal to make some device with the sole purpose of making life easier for us. I think everyone who designs this stuff has the same intention.

    But like anything else, technology, like fire, can be used to warm the house or destroy the building, but its not the fault of the fire.

    I do not fear technology, but I do fear the misuse of technology.

    We seem to be looking for something to blame the current economic malaise on. Its not technology causing this one folks... its Tax Law. In computer parlance, we have a bunch of legal short-circuits in the system. This system can work a helluva lot better than it is as soon as we patch the program to produce desired outputs rather than enriching a few by crony capitalism. Right now, the law incentivizes hoarding and greed. A few changes in tax law is all that is needed to fix this. There is nothing wrong with the hardware, but some of the software is poorly written, causing resource hogging..

    --
    "Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]

  29. Read Marx and other socialist/anarchist thinkers by Feanorian · · Score: 5, Insightful

    Marx talks how capital's need to grow lead to technological innovation to make production more efficient. This in principle could allow for people to work much less and still maintain very high standards of living. However, our production is oriented toward maximizing profits, not human needs, therefore we work longer hours in spite of the mechanization of most of production.

    OTOH, the labor theory of value also shows that this mechanization also causes a decrease in the RATE of profit, which has lead to a decline of labor intensive industry in the US and a financialization of capital.

    So yea, mechanization not only displaces jobs, but I contend that it is more relevant than outsourcing to the loss of American manufacturing and tech jobs. In fact, there was a Slashdot post not too long ago talking about how rising wages in Asia is causing manufacturing to move back to the US but in the form of robot factories, so the jobs still don't come back.

    These effects don't make themselves readily apparent because capitalism shifting these problems in space and time so they show up as problems elsewhere in the economy. Markets also further obscure these problems as consumers arrive at the market place theoretically as "equals" making mutual exchanges while hiding inequalities in labor and production.

  30. Re:And what about our feudal overlords? by ultranova · · Score: 2, Insightful

    Can we displace THEM with technology too?

    No, because they're not doing anything, they're just owning stuff. Technology can only replace labour, it cannot help someone getting the fruits of someone else's work without doing anything.

    --

    Forget magic. Any technology distinguishable from divine power is insufficiently advanced.

  31. Re:The sane option... by bjourne · · Score: 3, Insightful

    That's the idea with more technology of course. But in reality, we seem to be experiencing the reverse. Collectively we spend more hours at work today than we did 50 years ago and many more than we did 200 years ago. It may be more cushier jobs sitting in front of a computer for 8-9 hours per day than digging ditches or cutting trees or whatever manual labour they did. Less risk of getting hurt in an accident, higher risk of getting fat and having a heart attack I guess.

  32. Re:And what about our feudal overlords? by Sponge+Bath · · Score: 2

    The real Terminator won't come from the rise of the machines. It will be sociopathic CEOs commanding robot armies.

  33. Re:Not there yet by AK+Marc · · Score: 2

    Unemployment won't ever stay that high. The US punishes the "unemployed" to get them to not be "unemployed" so they stop screwing up statistics. A person who has no job and has looked for one for 5 straight years who just decides to "retire" and move back home with Mom and Dad is no longer "unemployed" and so the statistics get better. The guy at 55 who loses his job and can't find another is encouraged to stop looking, call it an early retirement, and boost the unemployment numbers. Job creation and job loss are better metrics, as they are gamed less than "unemployment".

  34. You buy cheap cotton by raymorris · · Score: 2

    > He single handedly does the work of 50 or more laborers who now do? You get the cheap cotton goods with money you make from your web site or whatever. You're missing that fact that this has been going on for hundreds of years - you ARE the guy who is not picking. If you make more than $2 / day because you're not picking cotton, putting lids on jars, or weaving cloth, the automation of those repetitive jobs has been good to you. Imagone the power went out at your workplace. How much could you produce with no automation? Remember no automatic word processor - if you mess up you have to rewrite it. Your productovity minus overhead and marketing is your maximum salary. I thank God I'm not picking cotton or weaving cloth because machines have replaced me in those roles.

  35. Re:The sane option... by anubi · · Score: 2

    We "technology guys" ( and our patrons ) have been the enabler for our generation to escape the situations described in the Bible and other history texts. I do not mean to intone religious themes here, but look at this book as a history text of living conditions of generations past. Life has NOT been comfortable for most of us.

    I look at even the kings of antiquity, and even they - as royalty - have nowhere near, and I mean nowhere near, the level of creature comforts I have, and I am not a rich guy. My dollar-store glass beer mug would have been considered a crystal chalice of great value. Even kings did not have as much as a proper toilet and paper. No electricity. No refrigeration. No motors. Even the lowest of us live better than royalty of antiquity as far as I can tell... ( except for social standing ). The only thing separating our conditions is the application of technology.

    History books show us having to do all sorts of unthinkable things and live through much very unpleasant adversity and misery.

    I believe I have lived through the pivotal generations which have transformed human existence from pure animalistic survivalism to the ability for each of us to enjoy and savor life. My fathers had the worst of it, laying the foundation ( industrial revolution ).

    I hear what you are saying about longer days. But then, how long was my grandfather's "farm day" where all the work on the farm was manual, no electricity, no refrigeration, and all the work was done by man and mule?

    Technology has freed us from a lot of the drudgery where we no longer need to grow our own food, rather we can play our guitar and fight over rights over who gets to hear it. We can now afford leagues of lawyers to hear our endless bickering over the most trivial of issues. We as a human race are finally getting to the point of each of us being able to do whatever it is we want to do... be creative in whatever way we create. Nothing says that creativity has to be technically inclined - it can be music, art, ( or my favorite art, cuisine ), architecture, landscaping. Each of us seems to have a burning desire to do something. The application of technology frees our time so we can do our dream.

    This knowledge of technology and how to apply it is the crown jewel of human accomplishment.

    Cherish it and teach it to your children, lest ye return to the days of history.

    --
    "Prove all things; hold fast that which is good." [KJV: I Thessalonians 5:21]

  36. Disconnected by yusing · · Score: 2

    technology cannot cause unemployment

    Yeah? Tell that to the fine people working in the grocery stores I visit, slowly being replaced by machines. Tell that to all the people who would have worked in banks and offices before the days of punch cards. Tell that to the guys who gandy-danced rails into place, and the diggers, and the guys who carried bricks on their backs all day long, and the guys who built cars and machined millions of parts all day long for decades.

    Of course economists would say that, they've never left the Ivory Tower to labor in the mills and fields and tunnels and streets. That's the kind of disconnect that got Murka where it's got today, that got our space program where it's got, that creates the 'nutrition' that got us where we are.

    --

    "You must try to forget all you have learned. You must begin to dream." -- Sherwood Anderson

  37. So, 7,000 people will own everything by JCCyC · · Score: 2

    and won't have to pay nuthin' to nobody. Big factories making goods to sell to a large number of people will become unnecessary too. The only function of the army of robots will be exactly that -- be an army. Protect the 7,000 from the 7,000,000,000. They will fail.

  38. "In the short term" by whitroth · · Score: 2

    And just how do these other economists define that phrase? Is it thirty years... in which case that's when you kids are my age.

    In the late seventies, before many of you were born, and into the early eighties, there was a *lot* of talk in the media and by talking heads, about how, in the US, well, yes, manufacturing was going away, but it was going to be replaced by better, less soul-deadening, and better-paying jobs in the "Information Economy".

    Yup. And for the majority of the US (that's > 50%, for those playing with statistics), their paychecks have been stagnant or gone down; the majority of newly created jobs involve burgers, pizza, and low-level healthcare.

    This time around, they claim that the economy will Really Move, and more new jobs will be created... not one is saying *where* those jobs will come from.

    And do you *really* think many people are capable of doing college, and adding to the economy, rather than them preferring lower education jobs, and more time at life, not at work?

    There were a number of stories a couple of months ago, about new manufacturing jobs here.. all of which require extensive training, and there aren't a lot of them.

    The conversation I've been trying to get started for about 15 years is what happens when 90% of manufacturing is automated, and construction is heavily prefab? Where will the jobs be? What will happen to three-quarters of the population - will it be like what used to be called the Third World, with 50%-80% unemployment?

    Just to offer a suggestion, how about government ownership of major industries, and a reverse income tax... the way they have in Alaska?

    What you do with your life after that is, of course, a separate conversation.

                        mark

  39. policy vs. mechanism by trenobus · · Score: 2

    In the design of operating systems, there is a notion of policy vs. mechanism. A good mechanism in an operating system is one that enables a number of different policies to be implemented. One such mechanism, found in most modern operating system, is the scheduling of threads by priority. At first glance, this might seem to be a policy rather than a mechanism. But we haven't specified how priorities are assigned to threads. In fact, by assigning priorities in various ways, a number of different policies can be implemented, such as increasing the priority of interactive threads, or ensuring the priority of threads that have real-time requirements.

    This mechanism is very flexible and powerful, but it is not without some problems. For example, if locking is supported between threads to control access to shared data, there is a potential for a higher priority thread to be stalled while a thread of intermediate priority continues to run. This can happen if a lower priority thread holds a lock that the higher priority thread needs to acquire in order to continue. As long as the intermediate priority thread continues to run, the lower priority thread will not run, and the lock will not be released.

    There are ways to fix that particular problem, such as by dynamic adjustments to thread priorities when an attempt is made to acquire a lock. But the points I really want to make are that priority scheduling, however much it may appear to be a policy, is actually a mechanism, and that it has dysfunctional edge cases that may not be obvious. I claim that capitalism is actually a mechanism, not a policy, and also has dysfunctional edge cases.

    I make this claim because arguments about capitalism often seem to assume that it is a policy. In my mind, a policy is a statement of what you want to achieve, and not of the mechanism by which you plan to do it. In fact, when we have arguments about capitalism vs. socialism, for example, those are really arguing about the merits of different mechanisms, and often never touch on what we consider to be good policy. There seems to be an implicit assumption that we all agree on the policies, so the discussion is just about how to implement them. I don't believe there is general agreement on the policies, because any attempt to discuss them is usually sidetracked by discussions of mechanisms.

    Even if you're sure in your gut that capitalism is the right mechanism, there is much left unspecified, and edge cases to handle. So there still needs to be a discussion about the desired policies. The basis of those discussions are our values, which in the US are largely shaped by mass media, with many people just accepting certain sets of values uncritically. As it seems that capitalism has reached (or soon will) one of its dysfunctional edge cases, it might be a good time to start discussing values, then move from there to policies, and finally decide what mechanisms to use to implement the policies.